EE8087: Living with Mathematics

Gambling in mathematics: An analysis of Texas Holdem Poker

Introduction
By Kristianto

Introduction

GAMBLING!!

Introduction

Introduction

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Introduction

WIN LOSE

How to Play
By Stephen

How to Play Texas Holdem

There will be four deals in this game: 1. The game start with two cards being dealt face-down to each player [pre-flop] 2. Next, three cards is placed face-up [flop] 3. Followed by a single card placed face-up [turn] 4. And another single card placed face-up [river] On each deal, each player have option to check/call, raise the bet or fold

How to Play Texas Holdem

So, there will be a total of seven cards for each player 2 hand (hole) cards (face-down) 5 community cards (face-up)

Each player can choose any combination of 5 from these seven cards to make the best possible combination The player who have the highest combination win the game

EXAMPLE

He has three option: High card of ace Pair of Js Flush The best option is Flush

EXAMPLE
His hand is flush Mediums hand is pair of 9s Stephens hand is two pairs of As & Js

Jonathans hand is two pairs of Js & 9s

He has the highest combination so he win the game

Analysis
By Kenrick

Before that,
Pre-requisite:
Combinatorics Probability theory

Combinatorics
! = = , = ! ! Number of ways of choosing k elements from a set of n elements.

Example: From a set of bridge card, how many ways to choose 4 cards? From a set of bridge card, how many ways to choose 4 cards, where 2 of them are ace cards?
= (4,2) (48,2) = 6768 = (52, 4) = 270725

Probability theory
The numerical chance some event will occur If trials of an experiment produce 0 occurences of an event , the probability of occurring () as follows: 0 = lim Every events: = + ( ) Mutually exclusive events: = + () Independent events: = ()

Probability theory (example)

What is the probability of getting a 3 on a fair dice toss? =
1 6

What is the probability of getting an ace from a deck of bridge cards?

4 52

4,1 52,1

What is the probability of getting 2 cards, where one of them is ace, from a deck of bridge cards? =
4,1 48,1 52,2

32 221

= 0.1448

After flop,
Community cards: Your own hole cards: Combinations for x & y:
C(525, 2) = C(47,2) = 1081
X Y

After turn,
Community cards: Your own hole cards: Combinations for x:
52 6 = 46
X

Full House Odds

PPPQQ or PPQQQ
P,Q : value of card p: number of P-card q: number of Q-card

P P

P Q Q

P Q Q Q

Full House Odds (after flop)

p\ q 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0.833% 2 0 0.833% 8.141% 3

P P

P Q Q Q P P Q Q
4 0.555% 12.211% -

0.555% 12.211% 1

3
4

0.555%
0.555%

12.211%
12.211%

1
-

How to calculate the table?

Take example of p = 1 and q = 3,
One P either at turn or at river Two P

P P

P Q Q Q P P Q Q

To make it PPQQQ or PPPQQ, we need: Probability of getting PPQQQ or PPPQQ:

3 43 43 3 3 2 = + + = 12.2109158% 47 46 47 46 47 46

or
= 3,1 43, 1 3,2 + = 12.2109158% (47,2) 47,2

Full House Odds (after turn)

p\ q 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 8.696% 3 0

P P

P Q Q Q P P Q Q
4 0 6.521% 1

6.521% 1

3
4

0
0

6.521%
6.521%

1
1

1
-

How to calculate the table?

Take example of p = 1 and q = 3,

P P

P Q Q Q P P Q Q

To make it PPQQQ, we need one more P at river; (PPPQQ is impossible case) Probability of getting P at river:
= 3 = 6.521% 46

Three of a Kind Odds (after flop)

T T T x y
t 0 1 2 3 4 Probability 0 0.277% 8.325% 1 1

TTTxy
T: value of triple card x and y: different value from T t: number of viewed Tcards

Three of a Kind Odds (after turn)

T T T x y
t 0 1 2 3 4 Probability 0 0 4.347% 1 1

TTTxy
T: value of triple card x and y: different value from T t: number of viewed Tcards

Two Pairs Odds

P P D D x PPDDx
P and D: values of the paired cards x: different value from P and D p: number of viewed P-cards d: number of viewed D-cards

Two Pairs Odds (after flop)

d\ p 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 0 0.555% 0.555% 0.555% 1 0 0.832% 11.655% 11.933% 12.210% 2 0.555% 11.655% 1 1 3 0.555% 11.933% 1 4 0.555% 12.210% -

Two Pairs Odds (after turn)

d\ p 0 1 2 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 6.521% 6.521% 6.521% 2 0 6.521% 1 1 1 3 0 6.521% 1 1 4 0 6.521% 1 -

One Pair Odds (after flop)

P P x y z
p 0 1 2 3 4 Probability 0.555% 12.210% 1 1 1

PPxyz
P: values of the paired card x, y, z: different value from P p: number of viewed Pcards

One Pair Odds (after turn)

P P x y z
p 0 1 2 3 4 Probability 0 6.521% 1 1 1

PPxyz
P: values of the paired card x, y, z: different value from P p: number of viewed Pcards

Four of a kind odds (after flop)

C C C CCCCx
C: value of the four of a kind card x: different value from C c: number of viewed Ccards

c 0 1 2 3 4

Probability 0 0 0.092% 4.255% 1

Four of a kind odds (after turn)

C C C CCCCx
C: value of the four of a kind card x: different value from C c: number of viewed Ccards

c 0 1 2 3 4

Probability 0 0 0 2.173% 1

Flush Odds (after flop)

S S S S S
c 0 1 2 3 4 5 Probability 0 0 0 4.162% 34.967% 1

SSSSS
S: card symbol (hearts, diamonds, spades, or clubs) s: number of viewed Scards

Flush Odds (after turn)

S S S S S
c 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Probability 0 0 0 0 19.565% 1 1

SSSSS
S: card symbol (hearts, diamonds, spades, or clubs) s: number of viewed Scards

Straight flush odds (after flop)

F L U S H
m Probability 0 0 0 0.092% 4.255% 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

FLUSH
F, L, U, S, and H:
unique cards consecutive values same symbol

m = number of viewed cards from F, L, U, S, H cards

Straight flush odds (after turn)

F L U S H
m Probability 0 0 0 0 2.173% 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

FLUSH
F, L, U, S, and H:
unique cards consecutive values same symbol

m = number of viewed cards from F, L, U, S, H cards

Straight Odds
P Q R S T

PQRST

P, Q, R, S, and T: sequence of consecutive cards as values The value of probability depends on:
p: number of viewed P-cards q: number of viewed Q-cards r: number of viewed R-cards s: number of viewed S-cards t: number of viewed T-cards

P Q R

Straight Odds (after flop)

Let A as the event of achieving a straight at the river. P(A) can take only four different possible outcome:
If more than 2 parameters of p, q, r, s, and t are null, then P(A) = 0 If exactly 2 parameters of p, q, r, s, and t are null, then P(A) = 1.480% If exactly 1 parameters of p, q, r, s, and t are null, then P(A) = 16.466% If none of parameters of p, q, r, s, and t are null, then P(A) =1

P Q R

Straight Odds (after turn)

Let A as the event of achieving a straight at the river. P(A) can take only three different possible outcome:
If more than 1 parameters of p, q, r, s, and t are null, then P(A) = 0 If exactly 1 parameters of p, q, r, s, and t are null, then P(A) = 8.695% If none of parameters of p, q, r, s, and t are null, then P(A) =1

Strategy
By Hendry

Advantage play
Developing a Game Strategy Knowing the Probabilities Reading Your Opponents

Conclusion
By Hendry

Conclusion
Gambling-based games involve risk, yet there is scientific way on how to minimize the potential lose. Calculating risk deals with computing the occurrence of win and lose; in this case engaging concept of Combinatorics and

Probability Analysing Texas Holdem Poker, probability

of optimum combination of own hole cards could be calculated to lead in decision making

Conclusion
To finalize decision, do always plan and make strategy Mathematics concept does take important role in daily life; helpful tools In this particular case, beauty of math helps in decision making process

Question and Answer

End of Presentation
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