NAO Technical Note No 69

A Method for Predicting the First Sighting of the New Crescent Moon
by BD Yallop
Summary
A single parameter method is obtained for predicting first sighting of the new crescent moon,
based on the Indian method.
Based on the method of Bruin, a simple rule is given that
determines the time of best visibility in the twilight sky.
The six ranges of the single test parameter q are calibrated by applying the q-test to a standard set
of 295 first sightings of the new crescent moon that cover the period 1859 to 1996.
The ranges of the parameter correspond to the following visibility types for the new crescent
moon: (A) easily visible to the unaided eye; (B) visible under perfect atmospheric conditions; (C)
may need optical aid to find the thin crescent moon before it can be seen with the unaided eye; (D)
can only be seen with binoculars or a telescope; (E) below the normal limit for detection with a
telescope; (F) not visible, below the Danjon limit.
1. Introduction.
Methods for predicting first sighting of the new crescent moon have been around since the time of
the Babylonians and maybe before that. The earliest methods depended upon parameters such as the
age of the Moon (Age) and the time from sunset to moonset (Lag). In Medieval times the methods
became slightly more sophisticated, and they included more technical parameters such as ecliptic
latitude and longitude.
In the twentieth century empirical methods have been developed based on functional relationships
between the arc of light (ARCL), arc of vision (ARCV) and the relative azimuth (DAZ). In this note I
examine three of the twentieth century methods, due to Maunder (1911), the Indians, The Indian
Astronomical Ephemeris, (1996), and Bruin (1977). My method is an adaptation of these three
methods.
2. The basic variables.
The angles ARCL, ARCV and DAZ, always in degrees, are defined as follows:
ARCL is the angle subtended at the centre of the Earth by the centre of the Sun and the centre of the
Moon.
ARCV is the geocentric difference in altitude between the centre of the Sun and the centre of the
Moon for a given latitude and longitude, ignoring the effects of refraction.
DAZ is the difference in azimuth between the Sun and the Moon at a given latitude and longitude, the
difference is in the sense azimuth of the Sun minus azimuth of the Moon.
Angles ARCL, ARCV and DAZ satisfy the equation
cos ARCL = cos ARCV cos DAZ
(2.1)
so only two of the angles are independent variables.
For angles less than about 22 this approximates to
(2.2)
ARCL 2 = ARCV 2 + DAZ 2
Although ARCL and ARCV are not directly observable, for historical reasons it is difficult to
discontinue using them.
3. The basic data for three twentieth century methods.
This section gives the basic data for the method of (a) Maunder, (b) the Indians and (c) Bruin.
(a) The basic data for the Maunder method are given on page 359 of Maunder (1911), and are
reproduced in Table 1:
Table 1: Maunder
DAZ
0
5
10
15
20
ARCV
110
105
95
80
60
Table 1 gives ARCV as a function of DAZ, i.e. ARCV = f(DAZ). If ARCV > f(DAZ) then the crescent
is visible. On the other hand if ARCV < f(DAZ) it is not visible. Thus in principle, the degree of

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visibility is equivalent to testing the value of a single parameter q, where q = ARCV f(DAZ). In
section 5 it is shown how q is calibrated for the Indian method using a standard data base of
observations of lunar first sightings.
Fitting a quadratic polynomial in DAZ to ARCV using the data in Table 1 by the method of least
squares, yields a perfect fit, which indicates that Maunder was using a quadratic to represent his data.
The visibility criterion is that the crescent is visible if
(3.1)
ARCV > 11 |DAZ| / 20 DAZ 2 / 100
(b) Since 1966, the basic data for the Indian method have been given in the Explanation to The
Indian Astronomical Ephemeris, which is based on Schoch (1930). In the 1996 edition, for example,
they are found on page 559 under the section Heliacal rising and setting of planets. They give the
data in a similar form to Maunder, i.e. a table of ARCV in terms of DAZ, which is reproduced here in
Table 2.
Table 2: Indian
DAZ
0
5
10
15
20
ARCV
104
100
93
80
62
In this case a quadratic polynomial in DAZ fitted to ARCV by the method of least squares produces the
following criterion:
(3.2)
ARCV > 103743 00137 |DAZ| 00097 DAZ 2
(c) The basic data for the Bruin method are contained in figure 9, page 339 of Bruin (1977). This
diagram yields ARCV as a function of W the width of the crescent moon, and they are reproduced in
Table 3. Note that the entry for W = 0'3 has been extrapolated, and that Bruin does not extend his
curves beyond W = 3'.
Table 3: Bruin
W
0'3
0'5
0'7
1'
2'
3'
ARCV
100
84
75
64
47
43
In this case a cubic polynomial in W is fitted to ARCV by the method of least squares. A cubic
polynomial is required because the curve has an inflexion. Moreover, since the coefficient of W 3 is
negative, it guarantees that the test criteria is eventually satisfied, provided that W is large enough.
The criterion is that the crescent is visible if

ARCV > 124023 94878 W + 39512 W 2 05632 W 3

(3.3)
where W is the width of the crescent in minutes of arc and is given by
W = 15 (1 cos ARCL) = 15 (1 cos ARCV cos DAZ)
(3.4)
Notice that Bruin took the semi-diameter of the Moon to be a constant 15', and that W is a function of
ARCV and DAZ.
The criterion for Maunder (3.1) and the Indian method (3.2), can also be expressed as a function of
ARCV and W, as follows.
ARCV > 131783 90812 W + 20709 W 2 03360 W 3
(3.5)
ARCV > 118371 63226 W + 07319 W 2 01018 W 3
(3.6)
Note that an additional cubic term in W is required to maintain precision.
Finally for comparison I give the expression for Bruin in the alternative form ARCV as a polynomial
in DAZ, although the precision is poor when DAZ exceeds about 20.
ARCV > 10136 + 014 |DAZ| 003 DAZ 2
(3.7)
The curves ARCV = f(DAZ) (i.e. q = 0) are drawn in Figure 1, for the three methods. As explained
in section 3(a), visibility occurs when ARCV > f(DAZ) (i.e. q > 0). Note that the Indian and Bruin
test are very similar between DAZ = 0and DAZ = 20. For DAZ > 20 the Bruin curve behaves quite
differently from the Indian curve and has a strong inflexion. At high latitudes, when the orbit of the
Moon is almost parallel with the horizon, this shape of curve produces predictions of first sighting
that are far too late. Experimental data are required in this region to improve predictions at high
latitudes.
From 1996 March, HM Nautical Almanac Office decided to abandon its test based on the Bruin
method for one based on the Indian method, using the expression (3.6) since it produced more

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sensible results for old moonage sightings at high latitudes, which occur at least once a year for
latitudes around 55. It also uses the topocentric width of the crescent W' in place of W, which is
calculated as follows:
SD = 027245
(3.8)
SD' = SD (1 + sin h sin )
(3.9)
W'= SD' (1 cos ARCL)
(3.10)
where a dash indicates that a co-ordinate is topocentric, SD is the semi-diameter of the Moon, is the
parallax of the Moon and h is the geocentric altitude of the Moon.
20

m
in

Comparing Bruin
with Maunder and
Indian

10

x-axis = DAZ
y-axis = ARCV

i
i
0

10

20

30

40

DAZ
i

Figure 1: Comparison of Maunder, Indian and Bruin methods.

4. The concept of best time.
If the crescent moon is to be observed as early as possible it is important to know when is the best
time for making the observation. If the observation is made too soon after sunset then the twilight
sky may be too bright to pick out the faint crescent moon. The observer has to wait until the contrast
between the crescent moon and the twilight sky has increased sufficiently for the Moon to be seen.
Although the twilight sky becomes darker, the brightness of the crescent moon also diminishes due to
atmospheric extinction as the altitude of the setting Moon decreases, so there is an optimum time for
making the observation. In critical cases the observation is only possible within a short period of the
best time.
Soon after sunset the observer will be using daylight vision to detect faint objects. Objects like
stars are best found by looking straight at them. As the Sun sinks to about 5 below the horizon,
night vision takes over. In this case much fainter objects can be seen, but it is necessary to use
averted vision. Around this time first magnitude stars begin to pop out of the sky. In critical cases,
with an elongation of say 8 and the Sun 5 below the horizon, and in the perfect geometrical situation
with DAZ = 0, there is not much time left to observe the Moon before it sets in the murk on the
horizon. It becomes increasingly more difficult to observe the crescent as the Danjon limit is
approached simply due to these geometrical constraints.
Schaefer (1988), (see pages 519 and 520) calculates the best time from the logarithm of the actual
total brightness of the Moon divided by the total brightness of the Moon needed for visibility for the
given observing conditions. I have found it difficult to repeat his calculations exactly because the
reference he quotes for his theoretical method, Schaefer (1990), is not readily available in most
libraries. Furthermore, in his other papers that are relevant to the subject, he gives insufficient or
conflicting information.
I have found a simple rule, however, based on Bruin (1977), which is sufficient for most purposes.
Bruin (1977) gives a method for calculating the possibility of observing the Moon at any instant after
sunset, and the results are given in figure 9 on page 339 of his paper. He plots a series of curves of
visibility of h + s (arc of vision) against s for W = 0'5, 0'7, 1', 2' and 3', where 90 s is the
geocentric altitude of the Sun, and h is the geocentric altitude of the Moon. Hence s is the depression
of the Sun below the horizon and h + s = ARCV. Each of these curves has a minimum, which Bruin

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says is when the situation is at an optimum. On the curve for W = 0'5, he marks the minimum as
point C. If a straight line is drawn through the origin (at h + s = 0 and s = 0) and through point C
(at h + s = 9, and s = 4), it is found that this line passes directly through the minima of the series of
curves for different W. Hence at the best time 4h = 5s. If Ts is the time of sunset and Tm is the time
of moonset, then the best time Tb is given by
Tb = (5 Ts +4 Tm)/ 9 = Ts + (4/9) Lag
(4.1)
Provided the derivation of the Bruin curves is sound, they yield, amongst other things, a very simple
rule for determining the best time. It is therefore an important exercise to re-determine Bruins figure
9 using modern theories for the brightness of the twilight sky as a function of s, (and azimuth of the
Sun), the brightness of the Moon as a function of phase, the minimum contrast observable to the
human eye for a thin crescent shape, various effects of the atmosphere, such as seeing and extinction,
the effects of age of the observer, and other relevant effects.
To this end I first attempted to re-determine figure 9 in Bruin (1977) using his theories, with the aid
of the computer package called MathCad. I wanted to extend his curves to a wider range of W, and
confirm my result for determining best time. Unfortunately my attempts failed, because scaling
factors have to be applied to make the transformations produce sensible results. In his paper Bruin
says he has applied a Gestalt factor to obtain his results.
From the curves in Figure 1 it appears that for DAZ < 20 Bruin adjusted his results to agree with the
Indian method. Doggett and Schaefer (1994) have made some strong comments about Bruins
assumptions for his model, and they point out that some of his quantities are orders of magnitude out.
In spite of these difficulties Bruins method is a very important approach to the problem because in
principle it provides answers to many questions that the Maunder and Indian method cannot address.
I am therefore making a fresh attempt to calculate Bruins curves using the modern approach of
Schaefer.
The problem of predicting heliacal rising and setting of stars is similar to the problem of predicting
first sighting of the new crescent moon. Three relevant papers have been written by Schaefer (1985),
(1986) and (1987) on this topic, and I have managed to reproduce his work, apart from some
inconsistencies between the three papers, which still need sorting out. A fourth paper by Schaefer
(1993a), repeats all the relevant formulae, but again there are inconsistencies. In this last paper he
quotes the expression by Allen (1963) for the apparent magnitude of the Moon as a function of phase.
This is the remaining piece of information that is needed in the calculation to predict first sighting of
the new crescent moon.
In general, the magnitudes of the stars are fixed, and empirical rules are found for predicting heliacal
rising and setting that depend upon magnitude and ARCV, Lockyer (1894). There is also some
dependence upon DAZ, which is fixed for each star.
Unlike the stars, the Moon is always near to the Sun at first sighting. Moreover the apparent
magnitude of the Moon depends upon ARCL, which in turn is a function of ARCV and DAZ, and
therefore we would expect there to be an empirical rule that is a function of ARCV and DAZ for
making the prediction. The problem reduces to finding an expression for that function. There is one
difference in the calculation that is often overlooked in the literature, a star is a point source, whilst
the Moon is a thin crescent.
I have to agree with Schaefer that his method is very short, taking only a few lines of programming.
I can now produce theoretically the curves ARCV as a function of DAZ, and even predict what
happens in daylight. I could produce and extend the curves of Bruin to find the best time using
modern theories, although there are more logical ways of performing this calculation using a
computer.
As Schaefer points out, using different extinction coefficients I find an enormous
difference between a site at high altitude with a clear dry atmosphere, and one at sea level with a
humid or dusty atmosphere, so my empirical approach must be confined to a specific type of site
where altitudes above sea level and extinction factors are confined to within narrow limits.
5. The basic data set of observations for calibrating first visibility parameters.
A list of 252 observations of first sighting has been published by Schaefer, (1988) and by Doggett,
and Schaefer, (1994). The list was later extended to 295 observations by Schaefer (1996). The list

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includes cases of both sightings as well as non-sightings. Even non-sightings provide relevant
information for calibration purposes.
I have re-calculated these data using my simple rule for determining the best time, and displayed the
set of 295 observations in order of decreasing q in Table 4. Columns numbered 1 to 18 have the
following meaning:
1 Number from the original lists.
2, 3, 4 Date of observation in the form year, month, day.
5 Morning (M) or evening (E) observation.
6 Julian Date of astronomical new moon minus 2 400 000 days.
7, 8 Latitude and longitude of observation.
9, 10, 11 Arc of light (ARCL), arc of vision (ARCV) and relative azimuth (DAZ) at best time.
12 Age of the Moon (Age) in hours at best time.
13 Time in minutes from sunset to moonset (Lag).
14 Parallax of the Moon () in minutes of arc. Semi-diameter = 027245 .
15 Topocentric width of the crescent W' in minutes of arc.
16 The test parameter (q), which is derived from the Indian method, and is defined in section 6.
17 Schaefers coded description (BES) of how each observation was made. If the only character is a
V, then the Moon was visible to the unaided eye. An I means it was not seen with the unaided
eye. If the first character is followed by (F) then optical aid was used to find the Moon, which was
then spotted with the unaided eye. If the first character is followed by (B) or (T) it was visible with
binoculars or a telescope, respectively. In the second and third papers, the rules were changed as
follows: If the first character is followed by (I) it was invisible with either binoculars or a telescope.
If the first character is followed by (V) it was visible with either binoculars or a telescope.
18 A prediction (BDY) of how the observation would be made, based on Schaefers coded description
in column 17, and derived from the value of the test parameter q at the best time of observation. The
methods for setting the empirical limits on q are described in section 6.
I found it necessary to reproduce so much of the information concerning the 295 observations,
because the original published tables contained so many errors. For example, in the original list of
252 observations, the column containing the Julian Date of the conjunction has the following errors:
No 117 for 2441038308 read 2441037308
No 11 for 2401081171 read 2401082171
No 208 for 2427216422 read 2427216921
No 98 for 2422933485 read 2422993485
No 222 for 2445702709 read 2445702719
No 115 for 2440741239 read 2440741598
No 116 for 2440741239 read 2440741598
Schaefer (1996) gives corrections for No. 44 and 117. He agrees with Loewinger (1995) that 44 is
unreliable and should be deleted, and gives the correct conjunction time for 117. I still found errors
in his list of 43 additional observations. For example the data for No. 285 is for the following day on
1991:05:16, and the following significant discrepancies were noticed in the conjunction times:
for 2445702709 read 2445702719
No 256
for 2445702709 read 2445702719
No 257
There are other differences in the columns for ARCL, ARCV, DAZ, and Age, some of which can be
explained by a different estimate for the best time. Unfortunately Schaefer did not include his
estimate for best time in the original list, and there is no simple way of finding out what it should be.
There are also many errors in Lag, which are too frequent to report. See also the report by Loewinger
(1995), for further comments on errors.

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Table 4: The 295 observations listed in order of decreasing q

No
1

37
73
48
74
75
274
72
71
270
266
285
263
9
70
35
19
284
261
26
245
65
267
276
21
4
272
254
11
17
32
66
282
244
63
207
259
25
57
61
76
217
24
264
210
50
8
168
12
206
60
268
287
58
110
5
68
193
14

Date
y m d
2 3 4 5

1870 7
1879 7
1872 9
1879 12
1879 12
1984 10
1879 6
1879 5
1984 8
1984 6
1991 5
1984 4
1861 9
1878 11
1868 6
1864 3
1991 3
1984 3
1865 3
1989 10
1878 1
1984 6
1984 11
1864 6
1860 2
1984 9
1983 11
1861 11
1864 1
1866 4
1878 6
1990 11
1989 7
1877 11
1933 3
1984 2
1865 1
1875 7
1877 3
1880 1
1935 4
1864 11
1984 5
1933 9
1872 10
1861 8
1986 10
1861 12
1932 4
1876 7
1984 7
1992 3
1876 2
1961 1
1860 6
1878 7
1987 5
1862 3

25
22
30
11
15
26
22
23
28
1
16
3
7
26
22
9
17
4
28
3
5
30
24
6
23
26
6
4
10
16
2
19
5
7
27
3
28
4
16
10
4
1
2
18
4
8
5
3
7
22
29
5
26
17
20
31
29
31

M
E
M
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E

JD
2 400 000
6

4271971
7549879
5069146
7696963
7696963
45998008
7520347
7490744
45939310
45851200
48390692
45792007
1023425
7312884
3504115
1938666
48331841
45762272
2322728
47799407
6988086
45880638
46027457
2026986
462318
45968634
45643432
1082172
1879824
2706795
7136575
48212878
47710708
6928868
27157639
45732491
2263897
6072727
6693620
7726444
27896009
2175144
45821657
27335264
5069146
994037
46707288
1111596
26803556
6456704
45909994
48686057
6309764
37316396
580725
7195403
46943134
1229823

Lat

Long

ARCL ARCV DAZ

9
10
11

Age
h
12

Lag
m
13

(A)
q > +0216
166 entries
380 237 403 311 261 812 1737
380 237 422 191 378 814 993
380 237 293 292 24 603 1484
380 237 325 252 206 547 1456
380 237 306 244 186 531 1399
156 356 297 247 167 518 1065
380 237 342 218 265 704 1207
380 237 283 241 149 608 1382
156 356 271 235 135 452 960
156 356 250 247
36 481 1115
390 768 261 231 123 446 1336
156 356 245 245
02 524 1011
380 237 389 137 365 671 682
380 237 306 187 243 547 1093
380 237 302 184 240 518 1013
380 237 218 216
23 373 1079
09 399 1105
390 768 217 217
156 356 213 212
18 459 860
380 237 212 204
58 360 1027
361 1088 346 134 320 757 670
380 237 236 197 131 501 1098
156 356 210 204
50 376 906
156 356 226 195 116 408 866
380 237 270 173 208 548 949
380 237 207 206
20 453 1030
156 356 221 189 115 369 760
156 356 217 191 103 413 815
380 237 284 145 245 479 793
380 237 198 192
50 324 1028
380 237 207 182
99 346 930
380 237 210 182 105 407 1054
390 768 279 150 236 614 870
374 1216 243 165 179 472 894
380 237 296 130 266 551 730
486
77 192 186
49 394 1126
156 356 190 186
40 404 779
380 237 185 183
23 309 943
380 237 216 167 137 371 940
380 237 185 184
18 384 914
380 237 238 152 184 416 870
482
51 182 179
36 308 1097
380 237 237 152 182 486 796
156 356 178 178
09 367 752
486
77 193 171 91 379 1013
380 237 246 143 201 491 701
380 237 293 108 273 529 523
408 732 285 112 263 520 577
380 237 217 151 156 374 851
500 362 182 172
61 397 1100
380 237 220 142 169 374 739
156 356 173 165
51 288 697
390 768 169 169 05 343 844
380 237 173 166
50 345 820
44 282 813
340 1183 169 163
380 237 201 147 137 371 821
380 237 252 118 223 444 585
64 358 963
392 1055 174 162
380 237 164 164
01 336 824

'
14

W'
'
15

554
582
548
609
599
598
565
550
610
580
608
551
604
586
607
601
584
541
609
540
547
593
588
553
541
610
573
608
612
612
574
540
566
572
551
540
606
594
558
606
596
564
562
566
570
594
595
603
540
605
604
552
571
613
591
603
545
546

36
41
19
26
23
22
27
18
18
15
17
14
37
22
23
12
11
10
11
26
12
11
12
16
10
12
11
20
10
11
10
17
14
20
084
080
085
11
079
14
082
13
073
087
14
21
20
12
074
12
075
065
071
072
10
16
068
061

q
16

+3730
+2804
+2749
+2665
+2433
+2409
+2359
+2182
+2143
+2100
+2035
+2016
+2014
+1846
+1827
+1637
+1617
+1511
+1496
+1485
+1477
+1461
+1450
+1438
+1428
+1385
+1351
+1318
+1295
+1245
+1232
+1231
+1221
+1189
+1158
+1138
+1138
+1129
+1120
+1115
+1077
+1050
+1024
+1024
+1016
+0984
+0979
+0976
+0965
+0908
+0905
+0894
+0889
+0866
+0851
+0846
+0839
+0818

Table 4: The 295 observations listed in order of decreasing q, continued

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Vis
BES BDY
17
18

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

No
1

30
55
51
45
235
257
23
83
53
211
62
283
47
42
34
84
82
64
104
218
248
18
213
117
27
273
216
89
286
43
236
88
69
108
249
111
277
29
101
212
291
112
125
165
1
121
13
219
79
214
109
118
262
6
90
114
85
269

Date
y m d
2 3 4 5

1865 10
1874 4
1872 12
1872 6
1989 4
1984 1
1864 9
1909 2
1873 5
1934 3
1877 6
1990 12
1872 9
1871 6
1867 11
1911 6
1908 2
1877 12
1922 4
1982 4
1990 4
1864 2
1934 5
1971 3
1865 4
1984 10
1935 2
1918 3
1991 9
1871 8
1989 4
1916 4
1878 10
1953 4
1990 5
1962 4
1984 12
1865 7
1922 2
1934 5
1996 1
1965 9
1976 12
1980 7
1859 7
1973 3
1862 1
1983 7
1899 3
1934 5
1954 3
1971 4
1984 4
1861 3
1919 4
1970 4
1911 8
1984 8

21
17
31
7
4
4
3
21
27
16
12
18
4
19
27
27
3
6
28
24
25
8
14
27
26
25
4
13
7
17
6
3
27
14
23
5
23
24
28
14
19
24
21
14
1
5
1
9
12
14
5
25
2
12
1
6
25
27

E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
M
M
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E

JD
2 400 000
6

Lat

Long

(A)
q > +0216
2529185 380 237
5630080 380 237
5157776 380 237
4950641 380 237
47622648 419 887
45702719 156 356
2115756 380 237
18357954 511
00
5304890 380 237
27512006 556 339
6782106 380 237
48242682 390 768
5039537 380 237
4596604 380 237
3296716 380 237
19214057 499
23
17973859 560 32
6958420 380 237
23171710 339 185
45083354 372 841
48006686 377 1215
1909257 535 23
27571021 482
51
41037308 510
00
2352094 380 237
45998008 156 356
27837186 482
51
21665328 502
51
48507960 504 44
4655793 380 237
47622648 340 1072
20956182 494
87
7283458 380 237
34481341 511
53
48035993 316 1105
37759324 258 282
46056991 156 356
2440271 380 237
23112283 339 185
27571021 500 362
50103036 324 1110
39028638 511
53
43133589 376 1225
44432782 414 707
226113 380 237
41746505 400 850
1141080 379 229
45526014 372 841
14725329 525 133
27571021 556 339
34806633 445 880
41066669 395 882
45792007 156 356
846067 380 237
22049378 539 16
40682674 480 1220
19272677 499
23
45939310 156 356

ARCL ARCV DAZ

9
10
11

217
163
198
180
240
166
270
192
169
159
164
190
197
182
168
192
198
212
176
168
146
149
158
147
160
160
150
143
171
179
140
142
244
141
151
151
151
237
212
149
145
137
141
209
164
136
146
154
133
152
132
132
134
134
135
133
215
133

166 entries
136 169
155
48
136 145
149 102
113 212
155
59
103 249
136 136
151
77
151
47
145
77
136 133
131 147
138 119
144
87
127 145
123 156
120 175
136 112
137
97
145
05
144
41
143
67
144
29
139
79
136
83
139
55
142
16
130 112
127 126
140 12
141
19
88 228
138
29
132 74
132 73
133
72
94 218
108 182
134
65
133 58
136 16
134
44
107 180
123 109
135 10
131
64
126 89
132
16
127
84
132
02
132
03
133
19
133 16
129
41
130
24
93 194
127
38

Age
h
12

477
277
332
390
404
346
591
312
329
284
279
420
404
399
345
314
329
415
356
283
229
236
314
237
275
274
249
224
300
347
225
263
409
230
240
244
279
475
470
294
229
225
233
419
276
240
259
264
218
301
211
211
281
274
222
232
390
208

Lag
m
13

'
14

continued
687 542
798 608
773 610
848 542
563 611
678 547
492 543
862 613
853 565
1046 582
835 601
783 543
629 553
773 544
770 544
973 608
951 610
685 561
653 561
685 604
768 613
974 613
1011 552
901 610
710 602
554 605
850 613
854 613
796 599
630 567
663 611
867 565
450 604
924 599
645 613
557 606
585 575
463 554
487 541
996 552
644 613
840 602
720 598
585 559
671 611
674 583
709 593
685 605
833 595
1174 552
704 610
710 601
525 547
643 540
862 611
778 587
534 582
501 612

W'
'
15

10
066
10
073
14
062
16
093
066
061
067
081
088
074
063
093
10
10
072
070
054
056
057
054
063
064
057
052
073
075
050
047
15
050
058
057
055
13
10
051
053
047
049
10
068
044
052
059
044
053
044
043
041
040
046
043
11
045

q
16

+0770
+0762
+0744
+0734
+0733
+0732
+0722
+0713
+0713
+0690
+0658
+0646
+0635
+0629
+0628
+0616
+0603
+0598
+0596
+0595
+0591
+0587
+0587
+0578
+0576
+0553
+0547
+0545
+0540
+0527
+0510
+0507
+0498
+0497
+0481
+0477
+0472
+0467
+0466
+0463
+0463
+0461
+0457
+0453
+0442
+0436
+0436
+0426
+0402
+0399
+0396
+0396
+0390
+0386
+0380
+0378
+0366
+0354

Vis
BES BDY
17
18

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
I
V
V
V(V)
V
V
V
V
V(F)
V
V(F)
V
V
V
V
V(V)
V
V
V
V
V(F)
V
V
V
V
V
V(F)
I
V
V
V
V
I

Table 4: The 295 observations listed in order of decreasing q, continued

No

Tn69x.doc

Date

JD

Lat

Long

ARCL

ARCV

7 of 14

DAZ

Age

Lag

W'

2004/09/22 10:14 AM

Vis

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

y m
3

d
4 5

208
192
146
97
67
247
22
124
167
80
145
144
221
143
191
215
38
139
255
16
115
189
190
129
137
56
116
243
130
141
140
123
94
223
135
136
265
188
134
142
132
133
59
138
92
187
93
81
126
113

1933 5
1987 4
1978 1
1921 8
1878 7
1990 4
1864 8
1976 12
1985 1
1900 5
1978 1
1978 1
1983 12
1978 1
1987 4
1934 6
1871 2
1978 1
1983 12
1862 7
1970 6
1987 4
1987 4
1977 12
1978 1
1875 6
1970 6
1989 6
1978 1
1978 1
1978 1
1976 12
1921 2
1984 3
1978 1
1978 1
1984 5
1987 4
1978 1
1978 1
1978 1
1978 1
1876 6
1978 1
1921 2
1987 4
1921 2
1901 4
1976 12
1970 4

25
28
9
4
1
25
4
21
21
29
9
9
5
9
28
13
20
9
5
28
4
28
28
11
9
4
4
4
9
9
9
21
8
3
9
9
31
28
9
9
9
9
22
9
8
28
8
19
21
6

E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E

131
233
40
186
185
184

1978
1988
1871
1987
1987
1987

9
13
20
28
28
28

E
M
E
E
E
E

1
6
5
4
4
4

2 400 000
6

(A)
q > +0216
27216921 556 339 157
46913566 370 1220 131
43517667 297 981 128
22905346 339 185 128
7166022 380 237 161
48006686 416 737 128
2086106 380 237 238
43133589 299 813 128
46086603 190 1550 138
15168119 387 07 153
43517667 300 902 126
43517667 300 902 126
45673018 372 841 170
43517667 309 902 125
46913566 407 1119 128
27600591 556 339 190
4478076 380 237 145
43517667 277 827 123
45673018 156 356 134
1348378 380 237 223
40741598 263 982 124
46913566 306 1040 124
46913566 306 1040 124
43488233 478 200 139
43517667 339 843 123
6043432 515 26 142
40741598 280 970 124
47681330 508 10 145
43517667 416 936 124
43517667 299 813 122
43517667 299 813 122
43133589 420 916 129
22728526 342 1180 124
45762272 372 841 142
43517667 340 811 121
43517667 340 811 121
45851200 156 356 122
46913566 303 977 122
43517667 360 798 121
43517667 430 898 123
43517667 360 798 121
43517667 360 798 121
6427429 380 237 129
43517667 419 876 122
22728526 352 1117 122
46913566 416 937 122
22728526 322 1100 122
15493401 507 28 131
43133589 438 877 127
40682674 445 880 120
(B)
+0216 q
43517667 389 769 119
47326885 372 841 128
4566948 380 237 142
46913566 300 901 119
46913566 408 877 120
46913566 330 874 119

10

11

166 entries
121 100
130
16
128
00
128
04
116 111
128
07
83 223
127
17
124
61
117 100
126
00
126
00
110 129
125
02
126
24
101 161
118
85
123 07
121
58
82 208
124
05
124 01
124 01
116
77
122
08
115
84
124
09
115
88
122
27
122 02
122 02
120
47
123 10
117
80
121
07
121
07
121
09
122 02
120
11
119
29
120
11
120
11
117
54
119
26
122 09
120
24
121 15
115
64
117
50
119
10

> 0014
118
116
112
119
118
119

17
54
87
04
21
03

h
12

m
13

'
14

continued
329 1210 539
258 670 557
203 601 610
203 609 613
298 631 588
198 715 613
513 397 540
208 605 599
260 533 560
289 638 577
197 588 610
197 588 610
343 600 559
197 594 610
253 690 558
410 971 542
267 579 568
193 561 610
270 518 561
449 390 562
234 596 556
244 583 558
244 583 558
218 762 614
192 602 610
227 963 608
234 606 556
250 926 588
195 678 610
191 571 610
191 571 610
210 692 599
253 579 545
294 559 540
190 597 610
190 597 610
237 522 575
239 570 558
188 608 610
192 683 610
188 608 610
188 608 610
201 662 613
191 669 610
248 578 545
241 666 558
248 552 545
221 737 613
207 698 599
207 656 588
68 entries
185 624 610
235 645 568
312 597 540
234 555 558
236 646 558
233 574 558

'
15

16

BES BDY
17
18

055
039
042
042
063
042
13
041
044
056
040
040
066
040
038
081
049
038
042
11
036
035
035
049
038
051
035
051
039
038
038
041
035
045
037
037
035
034
037
038
037
037
042
038
034
035
033
044
040
035

+0354
+0353
+0352
+0351
+0350
+0350
+0347
+0330
+0320
+0316
+0312
+0312
+0310
+0310
+0305
+0299
+0289
+0278
+0276
+0275
+0273
+0272
+0272
+0272
+0271
+0270
+0270
+0270
+0269
+0268
+0268
+0267
+0262
+0258
+0255
+0255
+0246
+0244
+0240
+0240
+0240
+0240
+0239
+0239
+0238
+0228
+0228
+0227
+0227
+0222

V
V
V
V
V
I(V)
I
V
V
V
V
V(F)
I(V)
V(F)
V
V
V
V(F)
I
I
V
V(F)
V
V
V(F)
V
V
V
V
V
V
V(F)
V(F)
I(V)
V(F)
V(F)
I
V
V(F)
V(F)
V(F)
V
I
V
V
I
V
V
V
V(F)

036
039
045
033
033
033

+0211
+0211
+0211
+0210
+0205
+0204

V(B)V(V)
I(V) V(V)
I V(V)
V V(V)
I V(V)
I V(V)

Vis

Table 4: The 295 observations listed in order of decreasing q, continued

No

Tn69x.doc

Date

JD

Lat

Long

ARCL

ARCV

8 of 14

DAZ

Age

Lag

W'

2004/09/22 10:14 AM

V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V

164
155
203
181
100
77
183
182
177
178
176
105
107
180
179
173
174
175
170
171
172
209
28
99
204
152
153
151
154
202
205
163
2
87
31
91
78
290
33
128
156
149
150
148
127
201
200
161
159
162
158
160
197
106
230
260

y m
3

1979 1
1978 3
1908 5
1987 4
1922 1
1881 3
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1922 5
1942 12
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1987 4
1933 8
1865 6
1921 12
1911 1
1978 3
1978 3
1978 3
1978 3
1885 12
1920 4
1979 1
1859 10
1915 3
1866 1
1921 2
1889 11
1995 6
1867 2
1977 11
1978 3
1978 3
1978 3
1978 3
1977 2
1987 6
1987 6
1979 1
1979 1
1979 1
1979 1
1979 1
1987 6
1931 8
1988 1
1984 3

d
4 5

28
9
1
28
29
30
28
28
28
28
28
27
8
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
20
24
30
31
9
9
9
9
7
19
28
27
16
17
8
22
28
5
10
9
9
9
9
18
26
26
28
28
28
28
28
26
13
19
3

E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E

2 400 000
6

(B)
+0216 q > 0014
43901764 378 1224 119
43576609 503 1193 127
18062149 441
31 147
46913566 337 844 118
23082492 339 185 195
8169440 515 26 118
46913566 427 845 120
46913566 427 845 120
46913566 362 817 118
46913566 362 817 118
46913566 362 817 118
23201253 339 185 123
30701584 407 740 126
46913566 280 825 117
46913566 267 818 116
46913566 389 771 117
46913566 389 771 117
46913566 389 771 117
46913566 389 770 116
46913566 389 771 117
46913566 389 771 117
27305741 486
77 126
2410832 380 237 186
23052735 339 185 180
19066906 510 09 164
43576609 416 936 118
43576609 416 936 118
43576609 405 890 116
43576609 405 890 116
9882053 506
57 135
22433405 435
70 119
43901764 476 1223 117
343523 380 237 214
20572321 494
87 112
2618359 380 237 110
22728526 423 711 110
11329573 509
42 115
49896534 301 710 109
3002261 380 237 110
43458800 307 1040 107
43576609 413 729 110
43576609 413 729 110
43576609 427 738 111
43576609 427 738 111
43192651 427 836 107
46972733 370 1220 113
46972733 335 1121 110
43901764 387 903 106
43901764 297 824 105
43901764 420 936 107
43901764 299 813 104
43901764 420 917 106
46972733 300 1000 106
26567352 486
77 105
47179727 322 1110 122
45762272 156 356 109

10

11

h
12

m
13

'
14

68 entries
117
23 196 588
115
54 238 676
107 102 277 601
118
04 231 575
88 174 424 405
117
16 207 731
117
25 235 661
117
25 235 661
117
10 230 591
117
10 230 591
117
10 230 591
114 45 221 564
111
58 199 619
116 08 228 528
116 11 228 518
116
15 228 608
116
15 228 608
116
15 228 608
115
15 228 608
116
15 228 608
116
15 228 608
112 56 258 700
87 164 342 448
91 155 367 441
97 133 316 652
113
33 221 569
113
33 221 569
112
30 217 554
112
30 217 554
107
83 268 753
109
48 210 595
109
42 192 655
68 203 392 333
110
17 223 639
110
05 193 563
110
01 219 576
106 43 191 713
109 02 215 515
108
16 220 536
107 07 183 484
107
29 206 529
107
29 206 529
106
32 207 539
106
32 207 539
107
04 200 555
106
40 224 588
106
29 215 553
105
19 173 529
105
01 171 469
104
26 175 555
104
01 170 468
103
25 173 552
104
18 205 516
103 20 166 664
97
74 196 463
103
36 215 399

'
15

continued
614 036
581 039
571 051
558 032
540 085
578 033
558 033
558 033
558 032
558 032
558 032
573 036
612 040
558 031
558 031
558 031
558 031
558 031
558 031
558 031
558 031
555 036
571 081
547 073
566 063
581 033
581 033
582 033
582 033
546 041
602 036
614 035
575
11
552 029
576 029
545 027
600 033
542 027
561 028
604 029
582 029
582 029
582 030
582 030
567 027
540 029
540 027
614 029
614 028
614 029
614 028
614 029
540 025
601 027
613 038
540 027

16

BES BDY
17
18

+0201
+0198
+0193
+0192
+0191
+0189
+0188
+0188
+0183
+0183
+0183
+0179
+0172
+0171
+0164
+0163
+0163
+0163
+0163
+0163
+0163
+0161
+0161
+0155
+0154
+0153
+0153
+0139
+0139
+0136
+0126
+0116
+0109
+0094
+0093
+0081
+0079
+0075
+0071
+0062
+0062
+0062
+0058
+0058
+0057
+0055
+0043
+0038
+0034
+0033
+0028
+0024
+0014
+0010
+0010
+0007

V(F)V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
I V(V)
I V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V V(V)
I V(V)
V V(V)
V(F)V(V)
I V(V)
V(F)V(V)
I V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V(F)V(V)
I V(V)
I(B) V(V)
V V(V)
I V(V)
I V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
I V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
I V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V(F)V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V(B)V(V)
V(B)V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
V(B)V(V)
I V(V)
V(T)V(V)
I(V) V(V)
I V(V)

Vis
BES BDY

Table 4: The 295 observations listed in order of decreasing q, continued

No

Date
y m d

Tn69x.doc

JD
2 400 000

Lat

Long

ARCL

ARCV

9 of 14

DAZ

Age
h

Lag
m

'

W'
'

2004/09/22 10:14 AM

4 5

199
147
86
198
251
252

1987 6
1978 3
1913 11
1987 6
1990 5
1990 5

26
9
28
26
24
24

E
E
E
E
E
E

(B)
+0216 q > 0014
46972733 407 1119 111
43576609 451 642 107
20099570 339 185 103
46972733 398 1050 109
48035993 342 1181 101
48035993 342 1181 101

36
220
246
10
46
238
228
250
49
196
157
52
120
119
225
237
239
240
96
234
241
224
289
95
122
102

1869 5
1983 11
1990 4
1861 10
1872 7
1989 5
1987 6
1990 5
1872 10
1987 6
1979 1
1873 4
1972 3
1972 3
1984 11
1989 5
1989 5
1989 5
1921 2
1988 6
1989 5
1984 5
1995 1
1921 2
1973 7
1922 3

12
5
24
5
6
5
26
24
3
26
27
27
15
15
23
5
5
5
8
14
5
1
1
8
1
29

E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E

3829172 380
45643432 372
48006686 416
1052791 380
4980267 380
47651993 397
46972733 372
48035993 316
5069146 380
46972733 427
43901764 352
5275447 380
41391983 355
41391983 355
46027457 340
47651993 430
47651993 427
47651993 427
22728526 388
47326885 372
47651993 303
45821657 372
49718956 330
22728526 365
41863987 440
23142043 339

44
281
39
253
294
295
15
166
293
98
292
280
278
279

1871 9
1990 5
1871 4
1983 11
1996 1
1996 1
1862 4
1981 7
1996 1
1921 10
1996 1
1990 2
1990 2
1990 2

14
24
20
5
20
20
29
30
20
31
20
25
25
25

M
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E

4685298 380
48035993 356
4537295 380
45643432 156
50103036 341
50103036 341
1259477 380
44816662 423
50103036 328
22993485 339
50103036 324
47947872 356
47947872 356
47947872 356

271
20
288
226

1984
1864
1992
1985

25
6
2
20

E
E
M
E

45968634
1997510
48715710
46175724

(C)

(D)

(E)

Tn69x.doc

9
5
4
4

10

102
102
103
101
101
101

11

68 entries
46 219
35 200
00 164
42 214
07 154
07 154

0014 q > 0160

237
841
737
237
237
1055
841
1105
237
845
1117
237
1176
1176
840
857
848
848
91
841
970
841
1060
62
1705
185

135
131
121
202
114
98
103
98
128
105
104
102
96
96
133
92
92
92
93
93
94
102
91
92
106
129
93
89
111
93
89
89
89
101
87
98
87
85
85
85

89
89
84
88
88
88
89
83
86
83
85
85
85
85

84
91
81
87

10 of 14

14

603
535
531
588
519
519

continued
540 028
582 028
587 026
540 027
612 026
612 026

+0003
+0002
0001
0010
0014
0014

V(B)V(V)
V V(V)
V V(V)
I V(V)
I(V) V(V)
V(V)V(V)

82
78
81
79

15

16

17

18

564
578
611
611
539
604
540
612
565
540
614
585
608
608
593
604
604
604
544
559
604
558
602
544
611
547

042
041
037
10
029
024
024
024
038
024
027
025
023
023
044
021
021
021
020
020
022
024
020
019
028
038

0018
0041
0048
0048
0049
0053
0054
0054
0056
0083
0093
0106
0110
0110
0123
0128
0133
0133
0141
0141
0146
0153
0153
0155
0156
0157

I
V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I
V(F)
I
V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I
V(F)
V(B)V(F)
V(B)V(F)
I
V(F)
I(B) V(F)
V(B)V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(I) V(F)
I
V(F)
I(I) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(I) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I
V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I
V(F)

571
612
544
580
612
612
541
590
612
581
612
594
594
594

021
020
028
021
020
020
018
025
019
023
019
018
018
018

0163
0164
0175
0178
0184
0184
0189
0205
0208
0213
0219
0222
0222
0222

V I(V)
I(V) I(V)
I
I(V)
I
I(V)
I(V) I(V)
I(I) I(V)
I
I(V)
I
I(V)
I(V) I(V)
I
I(V)
I(V) I(V)
I(I) I(V)
V(V) I(V)
I(V) I(V)

614
576
557
540

018
020
015
017

0248
0283
0284
0287

I
I
I(I)
I(I)

26 entries

14 entries

26 154 422
02 132 462
72 223 401
30 170 344
16 126 410
16 126 410
02 181 446
58 186 452
18 123 392
53 179 378
19 122 386
06 148 383
06 148 383
06 148 383

0232 q > 0293

156 356
396 262
198 1555
372 841

13

91 100 256 458

89
96 245 436
91 79 188 460
55 194 332 244
96
61 238 519
98 06 146 530
98
31 198 543
98
00 148 482
90
91 249 415
95
44 202 588
92 48 162 442
92
44 188 457
93 26 147 420
93 26 147 420
80 107 238 389
92 03 134 528
92 04 133 522
92 04 133 522
92 13 178 449
92
16 161 506
90 25 136 417
88
51 210 433
90 03 135 432
91 17 177 428
85 63 179 505
80 102 280 347

0160 q > 0232

237
835
237
356
1183
1183
237
713
1132
185
1110
835
835
835

12

4 entries

17 125 305
47 173 395
07 130 309
36 192 375

2004/09/22 10:14 AM

I(I)
I(I)
I(I)
I(I)

Table 4: The 295 observations listed in order of decreasing q, continued

No
1

Date
y m d
2 3 4 5

JD
2 400 000
6

Lat

Long

(F)
275
7
231
258
169
232
54
3
242
222
227
41
103
229
194
195
256

1984 11
1861 8
1988 4
1984 2
1986 12
1988 5
1873 12
1860 1
1989 6
1984 1
1987 4
1871 6
1922 4
1987 9
1987 6
1987 6
1984 1

23
7
16
2
31
15
20
23
3
3
27
18
27
23
25
26
3

E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
M
E
E

46027457 156
994037 380
47268001 372
45732491 156
46795633 390
47297425 372
5512285 380
432512 380
47681330 198
45702719 372
46913566 372
4596604 380
23171710 339
47061630 372
46972733 301
46972733 301
45702719 156

ARCL ARCV DAZ

9
10
11

0293 q

356
237
841
356
770
841
237
237
1555
841
841
237
185
841
710
710
356

92
160
77
86
124
77
116
71
70
87
76
71
61
99
96
90
55

Age
h
12

Lag
m
13

'
14

W'
'
15

595
590
592
541
613
582
583
542
592
549
566
541
556
559
543
540
550

021
063
015
017
039
014
033
011
012
017
014
011
009
023
021
018
007

q
16

Vis
BES BDY
17
18

17 entries
76
50
76
74
60
71
54
63
63
51
53
54
55
42
42
40
42

52 163 304
152 287 214
12 124 359
45 160 290
108 190 317
28 120 348
103 205 274
32 156 306
31
92 258
71 174 249
55 150 228
45 155 269
26 113 234
90 205 167
86 181 181
80 164 168
36 102 153

0296
0316
0330
0340
0348
0383
0447
0482
0484
0565
0573
0574
0576
0620
0632
0671
0720

I
I
I(I)
I
I(B)
I(I)
I
I
I(I)
I(I)
I(I)
I
I
I(I)
I(B)
I(B)
I

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

6. Derivation of the q-test.

The visibility test parameter q is based on the Indian method, which is defined discretely by Table 2
and continuously by inequality (3.6). The parameter q is calculated at the best time from the equation
q = (ARCV (118371 63226 W' + 07319 W' 2 01018 W' 3 )) / 10
(6.1)
where W' is the topocentric width of the crescent, and q has been scaled by a factor of 10 to confine it
roughly to the range 1 to +1. (Note the use of the topocentric width of the crescent.)
The values of q have been calculated for the 295 observations referred to in section 5, and the results
are listed in Table 4 in order of decreasing q. Table 4 has also been partitioned into six ranges of q.
These ranges in the q-test have been calibrated empirically by comparing the visibility code Schaefer
used for the 295 observational records, with a similar code derived from the calculated value of q. It
has also been found necessary to use theoretical arguments to obtain some of the limiting values for q.
Table 5 lists the six criteria by type, A to F, by range in q and by visibility code.
Criterion
(A)
(B)
(C)
(D)
(E)
(F)

Range
q > +0216
+0216 q > 0014
0014 q > 0160
0160 q > 0232
0232 q > 0293
0293 q

Table 5: The q-test criteria.

Remarks
Easily visible (ARCL 12)
Visible under perfect conditions
May need optical aid to find crescent
Will need optical aid to find crescent
Not visible with a telescope ARCL 85
Not visible, below Danjon limit, ARCL 8

Visibility Code
V
V(V)
V(F)
I(V)
I(I)
I

The limiting values of q were chosen for the six criteria A to F for the following reasons:
(A) A lower limit is required to separate observations that are trivial from those that have some
element of difficulty. After some experimentation, it was found that the ideal situation ARCL =
12 and DAZ = 0 produces a sensible cut-off point, for which q = +0216. To avoid ambiguities,
the constant geocentric quantity W defined by equation (3.4), that was adopted by Bruin for the
crescent width, was used to calculate q from equation (6.1) instead of W'.
There are 166 examples in Table 4 when q exceeds this value, and in general it should be very easy
to see the Moon in these cases, provided there is no obscuring cloud in the sky.
(B) From observers reports it has been found that, in general, q = 0 is close to the lower limit for
first visibility under perfect atmospheric conditions at sea level, without requiring optical aid.
Table 4 is used to set this lower limit for visibility more precisely. From inspection of Table 4,

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2004/09/22 10:14 AM

the significance of q = 0 can be seen, but q = 0014 is another possible cut-off value. There are
68 cases in Table 4 with q in this range.
(C) Table 4 was used to find the cut-off point when optical aid is always needed to find the crescent
moon by matching the q-test visibility code with Schaefers code. The rounded value of q =
0160 was chosen for the cut-off criterion. Entry number 44, the first entry in the next group, was
ignored because it is false. In Table 4 there are 26 cases that satisfy this criterion.
(D) In this case Table 4 has too few entries from which to estimate a lower limit for q. The
situation is made worse by the fact that where there is an entry, in most cases, the Moon was not
seen even with optical aid. In fact it is rare for the crescent to be observed below an apparent
elongation of about 75, see Fatoohi et al (1998). Table 4 has 17 cases. This is the current limit
below which it is not possible to see the thin crescent moon with a telescope.
Allowing 1 for horizontal parallax of the Moon, and ignoring the effect of refraction, for an
apparent elongation of 75, ARCL = 85. If DAZ = 0 this corresponds to a lower limit of
q = 0232. Without good finding telescopes and positional information, observers are unlikely to
see the crescent below this limit. The only sighting that was seen both optically and visually near
this limit was No. 278 for which q = 0222. It is an important observation because it is the
observation with the smallest elongation, see Table 6. If the Moon were observed near this
elongation and it was also at or near perigee, Age would be about 12 hours.
(E)There is a theoretical cut-off point when the apparent elongation of the Moon from the Sun is 7,
known as the Danjon limit. This limit is obtained by extrapolating observations made at larger
elongations. Allowing 1 for horizontal parallax of the Moon, and ignoring the effect of refraction,
an apparent elongation of 7 is equivalent to ARCL = 8. With ARCL = 8and DAZ = 0 the
corresponding lower limit on q is 0293.
(F) In Table 4 there are only 17 cases in this range of q, but three of them (169, 194 and 195)
contradict the q-test, in particular, 194 and 195 are anomalous observations. The main reason for
the discrepancy must be due to the extremely clear atmosphere experienced on high altitude
mountain sites. The elongations, however, are well above the Danjon limit, and since ARCV is
about 4, the observations were probably made using daylight vision. These observations show
that the curve q = 0 needs modifying for high altitude observations. No 169 was made at ARCL =
124, and width W' = 0'39, which are both large. Since ARCV = 6, it should have been possible
to make the observation. This observation shows also that the curve q = 0 needs modifying when
the atmospheric conditions are so perfect.
Earliest sightings are mentioned in the literature, by Schaefer et al (1993b). For example, No. 252 is
type B and Nos. 239, 237 and 241 are type C. None of these observations were made at such a small
elongation as No. 278 of type D, for which W' = 0'18. Table 6 lists the first fifty of the 295
observations in order of increasing crescent width, W', which is correlated with increasing elongation.
Note that the fifteenth observation No. 278 is the first observation designated type V(V) according to
Schaefers coding. Observation No. 195 is thirteenth on the list, so based on the small crescent
width, it was a very sharp observation indeed.
Many people assume that the place of earliest sighting of the the new crescent moon, given some
criterion such as Lag = 50 minutes, will be the most easterly place that the observation can be made
from. This assumption is fallacious. In an ideal situation, earliest sighting occurs at a place where a
first sighting parameter such as Lag or q takes a specific value and in addition DAZ = 0. It is easy to
show that in general the place on the parabolic curve on the surface of the Earth where the parameter
is a constant will not be the most easterly point on the curve. At the place of earliest sighting the line
of constant altitude of the Sun is tangential to the parabolic curve (because DAZ = 0), which leaves the
most easterly point in daylight, except in rare cases when the declination of the Sun is zero and the
tangent will then be at the most easterly point.
The list of 295 observations in Table 4 shows bias. For example there is a concentration on early
sightings, which occur when DAZ 0 and ARCL ARCV. Cases when ARCL DAZ and ARCV is
small, which regularly occur at high latitudes, and the Moon is first seen in daylight, are rare. In
other words the list of 295 observations concentrates on young moonage sightings at low latitudes,
and ignores old moonage sightings at high latitudes.

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2004/09/22 10:14 AM

In fact there are only nine cases for latitude > 50 where ARCL/ARCV > 12. Three of these 82, 204
and 215, have ratios larger than 1.6, which makes them more interesting. There are no contradictory
cases, but the sample is too small to be helpful for calibration purposes.
Table 6: The first fifty entries of Table 5 listed in order of increasing W'
No
1

256
103
3
41
242
227
232
231
288
222
258
226
195
271
278
279
280
15
95
292
293
281
20
289
234
96
294
295
44
237
239
275
240
194
253
241
229
120
98
119
228
196
224
238
250
52
197
166
86
251

Date
y m d
2 3 4 5

1984 1
1922 4
1860 1
1871 6
1989 6
1987 4
1988 5
1988 4
1992 4
1984 1
1984 2
1985 4
1987 6
1984 9
1990 2
1990 2
1990 2
1862 4
1921 2
1996 1
1996 1
1990 5
1864 5
1995 1
1988 6
1921 2
1996 1
1996 1
1871 9
1989 5
1989 5
1984 11
1989 5
1987 6
1983 11
1989 5
1987 9
1972 3
1921 10
1972 3
1987 6
1987 6
1984 5
1989 5
1990 5
1873 4
1987 6
1981 7
1913 11
1990 5

Tn69x.doc

3
27
23
18
3
27
15
16
2
3
2
20
26
25
25
25
25
29
8
20
20
24
6
1
14
8
20
20
14
5
5
23
5
25
5
5
23
15
31
15
26
26
1
5
24
27
26
30
28
24

E
E
E
E
E
M
M
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
M
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
M
E
E

JD
2 400 000
6

45702719
23171710
432512
4596604
47681330
46913566
47297425
47268001
48715710
45702719
45732491
46175724
46972733
45968634
47947872
47947872
47947872
1259477
22728526
50103036
50103036
48035993
1997510
49718956
47326885
22728526
50103036
50103036
4685298
47651993
47651993
46027457
47651993
46972733
45643432
47651993
47061630
41391983
22993485
41391983
46972733
46972733
45821657
47651993
48035993
5275447
46972733
44816662
20099570
48035993

Lat

156
339
380
380
198
372
372
372
198
372
156
372
301
156
356
356
356
380
365
324
328
356
396
330
372
388
341
341
380
430
427
156
427
301
156
303
372
355
339
355
372
427
372
397
316
380
300
423
339
342

Long

356
185
237
237
1555
841
841
841
1555
841
356
841
710
356
835
835
835
237
62
1110
1132
835
262
1060
841
91
1183
1183
237
857
848
356
848
710
356
970
841
1176
185
1176
841
845
841
1055
1105
237
1000
713
185
1181

ARCL ARCV DAZ

9
10
11

55
61
71
71
70
76
77
77
81
87
86
87
90
84
85
85
85
89
92
87
87
89
91
91
93
93
89
89
93
92
92
92
92
96
93
94
99
96
98
96
103
105
102
98
98
102
106
101
103
101

42
55
63
54
63
53
71
76
81
51
74
79
40
82
85
85
85
89
91
85
86
89
78
90
92
92
88
88
89
92
92
76
92
42
88
90
42
93
83
93
98
95
88
98
98
92
104
83
103
101

13 of 14

36
26
32
45
31
55
28
12
07
71
45
36
80
17
06
06
06
02
17
19
18
02
47
03
16
13
16
16
26
03
04
52
04
86
30
25
90
26
53
26
31
44
51
06
00
44
18
58
00
07

Age
h
12

102
113
156
155
92
150
120
124
130
174
160
192
164
125
148
148
148
181
177
122
123
132
173
135
161
178
126
126
154
134
133
163
133
181
170
136
205
147
179
147
198
202
210
146
148
188
205
186
164
154

Lag
m
13

'
14

W'
'
15

153
234
306
269
258
228
348
359
309
249
290
375
168
305
383
383
383
446
428
386
392
462
395
432
506
449
410
410
422
528
522
304
522
181
344
417
167
420
378
420
543
588
433
530
482
457
516
452
531
519

550
556
542
541
592
566
582
592
557
549
541
540
540
614
594
594
594
541
544
612
612
612
576
602
559
544
612
612
571
604
604
595
604
543
580
604
559
608
581
608
540
540
558
604
612
585
540
590
587
612

007
009
011
011
012
014
014
015
015
017
017
017
018
018
018
018
018
018
019
019
019
020
020
020
020
020
020
020
021
021
021
021
021
021
021
022
023
023
023
023
024
024
024
024
024
025
025
025
026
026

q
16

Vis
BES BDY
17
18

0720
0576
0482
0574
0484
0573
0383
0330
0284
0565
0340
0287
0671
0248
0222
0222
0222
0189
0155
0219
0208
0164
0283
0153
0141
0141
0184
0184
0163
0128
0133
0296
0133
0632
0178
0146
0620
0110
0213
0110
0054
0083
0153
0053
0054
0106
+0014
0205
0001
0014

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I(I)
I
I(I)
I
I(I)
I
I(I)
I
I(I) I(I)
I(I)
I
I
I
I(I) I(I)
I(B)
I
I
I(I)
V(V) I(V)
I(V) I(V)
I(I) I(V)
I
I(V)
I
V(F)
I(V) I(V)
I(V) I(V)
I(V) I(V)
I
I(I)
I(V) V(F)
I(I) V(F)
I
V(F)
I(V) I(V)
I(I) I(V)
V I(V)
I(V) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I
I
I(I) V(F)
I(B)
I
I
I(V)
I(V) V(F)
I(I)
I
I(B) V(F)
I
I(V)
V(B)V(F)
I(V) V(F)
V(B)V(F)
I(I) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I(V) V(F)
I
V(F)
I V(V)
I
I(V)
V V(V)
I(V) V(V)

2004/09/22 10:14 AM

7. A few conclusions
In this note I have pointed out that there is too much emphasis on making record breaking
observations of first sighting of the new crescent moon. The majority of cases are not critical ones
and what we need are more observations of first sighting at latitudes above 50 when the Moon is
several days old, including observations made in daylight. Northern Europe would be an ideal place
to organise another moonwatch program to solve this problem.
I have given a simple method for determining the time of best visibility, which is based on the method
of Bruin. His method has many other applications to problems concerning first visibility. It would
be useful to update Bruins calculations using modern theories.
8. Acknowledgements
I would especially like to thank Mr Yaacov Loewinger for encouraging me since 1992 to continue
with this project, and for checking my work so thoroughly and making useful suggestions for
improving this technical note. It was he who first made me consider expressing the Bruin test as a
continuous function in the form of a quadratic polynomial in W. He also helped me to appreciate the
value of the original list of 252 observations of first sighting for checking and calibrating other
theories.
I am also indebted to Miss Catherine Hohenkerk, who kindly TeXed this technical note for me. She
amended the NAO computer program for calculating first sighting to use the method given in this
note, and together we updated Astronomical Information Sheet (AIS) No. 6. An example of the
computer output is given in Appendix A, and further details concerning the output will be found in
AIS No. 6.
I am grateful to Fatoohi et al for producing a paper that gave me fresh insight to the problem.
I would also like to thank Dr Monzur Ahmed for advice on updating my q-test, and broadcasting
recent changes on the internet, see http://www.starlight.demon.co.uk/ildl/jan98.htm.
9. References
Lockyer, J.N., (1894), Dawn of astronomy, Cassells, London.
Maunder, E.W., (1911), On the smallest visible phase of the Moon, Journal of the British
Astronomical Association, 21, 355362.
Schoch, C., (1930), Ergaenzungsheft zu den Astronomischen Nachrichten, 8, No. 2, B17, Tafel fr
Neulicht.
Allen, C.W., (1963), Astrophysical Quantities, Athlone Press, 145.
Bruin, F., (1977), The first visibility of the lunar crescent, Vistas in Astronomy, 21, 331358.
India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, The Indian Astronomical Ephemeris, (1996), 559.
Schaefer, B.E., (1985), Predicting heliacal risings and settings, Sky and Telescope, 70, 261263.
Schaefer, B.E.,(1986), Atmospheric extinction effects on stellar alignments, Archaeoastronomy, No
10, Supplement to the Journal of the History of Astronomy, S32S42.
Schaefer, B.E., (1987), Heliacal rise phenomena, Archaeoastronomy, No 11, Supplement to the
Journal of the History of Astronomy, S19S33.
Schaefer, B.E., (1988), Visibility of the lunar crescent, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical
Society, 29, 511523.
Schaefer, B.E., (1990), LunarCal, Western Research Company, Inc., 2127 E. Speedway, Suite 209,
Tucson, AZ 85719.
Schaefer, B.E., (1991), Length of the lunar crescent, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical
Society, 32, 265277.
Schaefer, B.E., (1993a), Astronomy and the limits of vision, Vistas in Astronomy, 36, Part 4, 311
361.
Schaefer, B.E., Ahmad, I.A. and Doggett, L.E., (1993b), Records for young Moon sighting, Quarterly
Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 34, 5356.
Doggett, L.E., and Schaefer, B.E., (1994), Lunar crescent visibility, Icarus, 107, 388403.
Loewinger, Y., (1995), Some Comments on ....., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical
Society, 36, 449452.
Schaefer, B.E., (1996), Lunar Crescent Visibility, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical
Society, 37, 759768.

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Fatoohi, L.J., Stephenson, F.R., Al-Dargazelli, S.S., (1998), The Danjon limit of first visibility of the
lunar crescent, Observatory, 118, 6572.

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