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Pilot: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370

By Les Abend
March 25, 2014 -- Updated 1246 GMT (2046 HKT)

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Flight MH370: 'All lives are lost'

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Pilot Les Abend: Evidence on Flight 370 is consistent w ith a mechanical concern He says the plane might have been flying on autopilot in its final hours All explanations are speculative until the plane's components are found, Abend says

Editor's note: Les Abend is a 777 captain for a major airline with 29 years of flying experience. He is a senior contributor to Flying magazine, a worldwide publication in print for more than 75 years. (CNN) -- Since the disappearance of Amelia Earhart, no aviation search has garnered more attention than the loss of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. The disappearance has become the mystery of the century. It is baffling both to the public and to aviation experts alike, myself included. First, let's not forget to find compassion for the families and friends of the passengers on board this flight. Accident investigations are aimed at finding them an answer, at discovering the cause of such tragedies and at preventing them from ever happening again. Rather than delve into the numerous sabotage/terrorist theories, I'd like to focus on mechanical malfunction. Considering all the facts, or the accepted assumption of facts, a malfunction that overwhelmed the crew may still be a viable explanation. This makes the most sense to me, as a 30-year airline veteran. Opinion: Flight 370''s resting place is best clue Piecing together all the current information as of March 24, I'll describe a chronological scenario. The scenario is pure speculation on my part, and I have included commentary at various points. 0. The captain utilizes a PC-based flight simulator and deletes some files. So what? My take: This is a hobby. The captain is passionate about flying. Did he fly only the 777 in the simulator? He could well have flown other types of aircraft in the simulator, for his own purposes. Regardless, he

March 25, 2014 -- Updated 1245 GMT (2045 HKT)

Robert Goyer says the best explanation is still a botched hijacking or failed pilot takeover of the plane.

Pilot: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370

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What could explain the baffling loss of Flight 370? Pilot Les Abend says evidence is consistent w ith a mechanical cause.

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Opinion: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370 - CNN.com
wouldn't require this device to execute a nefarious plot. An 18,000hour captain already has all the resources, i.e. charts and manuals, including his own experience. 1. The captain completes a cell phone call prior to takeoff. Judging by the distance from the main terminal to the runway, this cell phone call was most likely made after pushback from the gate at Kuala Lumpur. Yes, this was a violation of the sterile period (during which extraneous activity outside of aircraft operations should not occur) and not quite up to professional standards but not a big deal. Most likely, the captain made the call while the airplane had been safely stopped on a taxiway. It does not imply malicious intent. As of this writing, information has not been released regarding the details of the phone call. 2. At 12:36 a.m., Malaysia 370 contacts the Kuala Lumpur tower and receives a clearance to hold short of Runway 32R at the departure end, my translation from a non-verified transcript. 3. At 12:40 a.m., Malaysia 370 receives clearance to take off. 4. At 12:42 a.m., Malaysia 370 receives a clearance to climb to 18,000 feet and is directed to the IGARI waypoint, approximately 300 miles away, the entry point into Vietnam's airspace. 5. Although the transcript timeline seems abridged, having eliminated communication with other aircraft that had to be on the frequency, it appears that the co-pilot reported the altitude level at 35,000 feet on three occasions. Apparently, this repeated report has caused concern. My colleagues will agree that the most diplomatic method to remind an air-traffic controller that you had requested a higher altitude would be to state your current altitude. It's a subtle hint in air-traffic control parlance. Maybe the original clearance was filed for a higher flight level than 35,000 feet.
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6. At 1:07, ACARS (the Automatic Communication and Reporting System) gives what turns out to be its final report. Also at this time, it was alleged that an additional waypoint not on the original flight plan had been entered into the flight management computer. The implication is that someone in the cockpit had intent to veer off-course for nefarious purposes. I believe that if indeed a waypoint was entered -- and it seems difficult to verify with the ACARS no longer reporting -- it was entered as a means to identify an equal-time point. Such a point is a position on the route that indicates the flight is equal in time to two or more diversionary airports. It is a required dispatch calculation prior to departure but an optional entry on the flight management computer. 7. At 1:19, a Kuala Lumpur Center air-traffic controller instructs Malaysia 370 to contact Ho Chi Minh Center (Vietnam radar) on frequency 120.9. The co-pilot responds with the now-famous "All right, good night." Although the correct response would have been to repeat the frequency, the co-pilot was informal. Not a big deal. Crews that have flown that route know that the frequency doesn't change. It is printed on the en route chart. 8. At 1:21, the transponder ceases to send out its coded discrete signal that identifies the flight. Perhaps the beginning of a malfunction in the electronics and engineering compartment? 9. At 1:37, the automatic ACARS transmission does not give its 30minute report. Had the problem become a full-blown emergency? 10. An undocumented report that a Narita, Japan-bound flight is asked by Ho Chi Minh Center to attempt contact with Malaysia 370. The Narita flight is approximately 30 minutes ahead but is unable to

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Opinion: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370 - CNN.com
establish contact with Malaysia 370. This attempted "relay" would have been a typical procedure used by air-traffic control. Ho Chi Minh Center would have first attempted contact on the assigned frequency and then used the emergency frequency that all controllers and airlines monitor. There is cause for concern but no reason just yet to sound the alarm. 11. At 2:15, Malaysian military radar (disclosed one week after the disappearance) claims to have observed a primary target on the west side of the Malaysian peninsula, indicating that the flight flew a westerly course at some point after the last verbal transmission. In my view, the above timeline only includes what appears to be the most credible assertions. Subsequent to this timeline, reports of satellite "pings" and engine data being transmitted indicate that the airplane may have remained airborne for an additional five to seven hours. Without verification and true understanding regarding the implications of these reports, it is difficult to speculate. Coming together: Flight 370 search unites global community In addition, raw data from another radar site indicated that the 777 may have climbed to an altitude above the airplane's certified ceiling and then quickly descended and climbed again. And now the most recent assertion has the airplane descending to 12,000 feet. If in fact the airplane descended to 12,000 feet, its fuel consumption would have been almost double that at the higher altitudes. In that regard, how did the airplane fly so far south into the Indian Ocean, as has now been announced emphatically by the Malaysian Prime Minister? Assuming the airplane did indeed continue to fly, here is a hypothetical scenario: A smoldering fire began to affect the components in the electronics and engineering compartment. The fire was insidious, producing smoke at a slowly increasing rate. As components began to fail, the crew followed appropriate checklists until it was determined that the primary concern was to land the airplane. The captain entered the waypoint identifier for a diversionary airport into the flight management computer. The autopilot turned the airplane toward the diversionary airport, a southwesterly direction. In the meantime, the crew attempted to control an airplane that may have been losing portions of its electronic flight control systems. Primary flight displays on the instrument panel may have begun to shut down, making it difficult to interpret airplane attitude and airspeed. The crew donned their oxygen masks with the integral goggles, but toxic fumes, low visibility etc. eventually overcame them when the oxygen bottled was depleted due to the pilots both breathing rapidly in a high-stress environment and the mask switch most likely being selected to 100% at high pressure. A degraded autopilot continued to steer the airplane toward the diversion airport at an altitude selected by the crew. When the airplane reached the last waypoint -- the diversionary airport -- the flight management computer functioned as designed and kept the airplane on its last heading. Fuel exhaustion caused the engines to flame out one at a time. Operating on one engine for a brief period may have caused a turn due to the differential power that couldn't be compensated by a degraded automatic system. When the autopilot could no longer maintain the airplane at the selected altitude, it disconnected. The airplane would have begun a slow, erratic descent. When the last engine shut down, the ram air turbine would have deployed, providing both limited hydraulic power and limited electric power. Eventually, the airplane would have descended and crashed into the ocean.
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Opinion: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370 - CNN.com
A lot of focus has been on the fact that the crew did not communicate the problem. Maybe they did attempt to declare a "mayday." Had the primary radios been destroyed by fire? Or more likely, the communication went unheard because the airspace where the malfunction occurred was just out of the range of normal VHF communications, in addition to being just outside Ho Chi Minh Center's radar. It is all pure speculation until the airplane is located. I'd like to keep an open mind. Regardless, perhaps I've explained some of the unexplainable. Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion. Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion.
The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Les Abend.

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hambdiscus

16 hours ago

Certainly makes more sense than 99% of the 'theories' posted to date. In particular, absent the flight data and voice recorders as well as some physical portion of the aircraft and/or its equipment, we will never know what did happen to Flight 370.
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Opinion: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370 - CNN.com

We should offer our prayers and condolences to the family and friends of those lost in this tragedy and by all means avoid placing blame on anyone connected with the airline, crew, search/rescue personnel and others who struggled to solve this mystery.
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MrsAdams

hambdiscus 15 hours ago

Well said. I am a lay person, who flies a lot, and whose own parents crashed in a single engine Cessna years ago. I admire the power of the plane, and I have great sympathy to what these families and friends are enduring at this time. Since day 8 into this horrible tragedy I started thinking this is the only plausible explanation. I thank Capt. Abend for presenting it, and from a place of tremendous experience. Again, I'm a layperson, but I'm a bit suspect about lithium-ion batteries, apparently in the cargo hold in this plane. Something about lithium-ion batteries in great quantities at high altitudes makes me wonder.
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Mark

MrsAdams 14 hours ago

Had those batteries caught fire the heat would have melted right through the aircraft. That is the problem with that theory. That kind of fire is unstoppable. Even halon would not have done it. As soon as the air rushed back in, the batteries would have reignited.
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Conjuring_Cat

Mark 14 hours ago

Breached the hull, which causes--guess what?--rapid decompression. Thanks for supporting Captain Abend's theory...
10 Mark
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Conjuring_Cat 14 hours ago

And burned the plane. Ever see one , just one burn? That theory is preposterous. And that sir I know a lot about.
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Steve_in_MA

Mark 9 hours ago

Correct. The plane would have been in the water off the Malaysian coast if that was the scenario.
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jasbir tiwana

Mark 13 hours ago

just ask the 50 or so persons in Maldives---was it on fire? forget whether it was spotted by their first world war vintage radar system. for heavens sake you have 50 eye witnesses just ask them and they will debunk this theory
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Jeff Webb

jasbir tiwana 10 hours ago

World War One vintage radar in the Maldives? The Maldives must have been pretty sophisticated way back in 1914-1918! Actually, practical radars were from about 1935 or so but really did not get going until a few years later. Radar simply did not exist in World War One.
16 fuzzball
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jasbir tiwana 11 hours ago

The Florida aircraft accident O2 canister caught fire and had to turn back, they communicated constantly but all died.
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Steve_in_MA

fuzzball 9 hours ago

And the fire terminated that flight in 3 minutes, 42 seconds http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/24/opinion/abend-explaining-flight-370/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

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Opinion: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370 - CNN.com And the fire terminated that flight in 3 minutes, 42 seconds from outbreak of smoke. Fire would bring the plane down very quickly. Perhaps some electrical trauma that created smoldering, but not a fire, would have done what we see occurring here.
8 fuzzball
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Steve_in_MA 9 hours ago

In which case there would be plenty of time for the crew to say "Mayday". Was there any plane at altitude, in cruise that suffered a catastrophic failure that didn't say "Mayday"?
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RonB from Pittsburgh

fuzzball 4 hours ago

Yes. Payne Stewart's.

7 fuzzball
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RonB from Pittsburgh 4 hours ago

OK, joking like yours aside, I am talking about a major commercial aircraft ...duh
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RonB from Pittsburgh

fuzzball 38 minutes ago

I'm not joking. I think you're making a distinction without a difference.

1 bguest
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RonB from Pittsburgh 6 minutes ago

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Big difference between a Boeing 777 and a Learjet 36

Nondi Ploom 1

fuzzball 2 hours ago

the ones that lost their ability to communicate.

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Steve_in_MA

fuzzball an hour ago

It is true that under that scenario, unless the oxygen masks were not functioning, there might still be time and capability to speak a PAN call or MAYDAY. Throw in explosive decompression and there isn't. Try talking into a 550 mph wind at -30 degrees.
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bguest

Steve_in_MA 9 minutes ago

Even Swiss Air 111 (MD 11) went down rather quickly once an electrical fire destroyed the navigation equipment. Without knowing enough about the separation of electronics / redundancies / etc for such a modern airplane as the 777, I think even the captain here is doing a fair amount of speculating.
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Nondi Ploom

Steve_in_MA 2 hours ago

Not necessarily.
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Thinkb4YouWrite

Mark 2 hours ago

If there was a fire in the cockpit wouldn't the plane had gone down right away not a 3000 miles away? If the cockpit is gone, the controls are gone. There is no autopilot then. Unless these planes have a second set of controls outside of the cockpit I doubt it.
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Gaz5700

Opinion: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370 - CNN.com
Mark 9 hours ago

So, the heat from the fire burns through the hull causing rapid decompression. At that altitude there is not enough oxygen to sustain the fire, so the fire goes out....
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rl12

MrsAdams 40 minutes ago

I agree, well stated. I am a little more than a layperson, l, am not an expert like he author of the article, but I have been associated with aviation for almost 44 of my 60 plus years, and until something else is proven, this makes a much sense as any and more than most.
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acidburn

hambdiscus 15 hours ago

What exactly is praying for the families going to do now? "God" has already taken away their family members, so is He/She supposed to bring them back because you prayed?
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Conjuring_Cat

acidburn 15 hours ago

Exactly what does it harm? Even if it's all ineffectual, it might be comforting to the bereaved families. A time of loss is hardly the appropriate time to get slapped with jeremiads against religion...
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chadm252

Conjuring_Cat 6 hours ago

Irrational belief in nonexistent deities, whether at a time of tragedy or celebration, harms us all as a species!
19 thekarl
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chadm252 3 hours ago

"The way to see by faith is to shut the eye of reason." Benjamin Franklin . More from our founding fathers you may like: . Religious controversies are always productive of more acrimony and irreconcilable hatreds than those which spring from any other cause. I had hoped that liberal and enlightened thought would have reconciled the Christians so that their [not our?] religious fights would not endanger the peace of Society George Washington, first President of the United States in a letter to Letter to Sir Edward Newenham, June 22, 1792 . "The question before the human race is, whether the God of nature shall govern the world by his own laws, or whether priests and kings shall rule it by fictitious miracles." John Adams, second President of the United States in a letter to Thomas Jefferson, June 20, 1815
see more

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Maurice Adelmon

thekarl 2 hours ago

You base your entire view of the problem on 17th century protestantism.
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JenniferJustice

chadm252 2 hours ago

To wish people strength and unity is harmful? To pray for their healing and emotional well-being is harmful? You have no idea what you're talking about. If you don't pray and you don't beleive in it, how would you have any knowledge of what http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/24/opinion/abend-explaining-flight-370/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

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beleive in it, how would you have any knowledge of what prayer does for those prayed for as well as those praying? I say making harsh claims about something you do not practice or have any education in is irrational - ignorant actually.
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chadm252 17 minutes ago

I think there can be some good from irrational belief in nonexistent deities. If it provides comfort to a large group of people, that's great. And, if it takes going to church on Sundays to remind some people to be good and moral citizens, then I say let them go. I think the benefit outweighs the harm.
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Maurice Adelmon

chadm252 2 hours ago

Actually there is every proof of the oposite. Every study shows better medical outcomes for people who believe in God if only due to the placebo effect of prayer.
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herbys

Conjuring_Cat 10 hours ago

Agree on your last point, but I still struggle how YOUR prayer can help those grieving (when they won't know abut it, and would probably not agree with your religious views to begin with, given their demographics).
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John McKay

Conjuring_Cat 4 hours ago

"Even if it's all ineffectual, it might be comforting to the bereaved families." How is a schmuck praying here in US supposed to comfort the families IF prayer is ineffectual? It would comfort them IF prayer had some magic power to fly over half the world and somehow interact in a very specific and intelligent manner with axons of the brain of the person who lost the loved one. If it's ineffectual, and one would need to be a birdbrain of the highest order to believe it is effectual, such magic is by definition not possible.
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Maurice Adelmon

John McKay 2 hours ago

How is a belief in the afterlife supposed to help the families of the recently dead? By offering comfort quite simply in the idea they are not lost to us forever.
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thekarl

Maurice Adelmon an hour ago

While often helpful at the time, lies and delusions always have deleterious effects down the line. These beliefs may help the bereaved but reinforce the rest of religious dogma which history has show to be abused as often as not. Acceptance of the reality of a capricious and random universe, and the finding of logical reasons to go on, and to help others, is far healthier than the assumption that it is the will of a deity. Should the existence of a deity be disproved then any belief and moral structure based on its existence also collapses. Surely if god did not exist then murder and theft would still be wrong, would it not?
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snarkjeg

Conjuring_Cat 3 hours ago

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/24/opinion/abend-explaining-flight-370/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

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knowing that family and friends are praying might help the bereaved. But the prayers of strangers, thousands of miles away, that the bereaved will never hear about....how does that comfort the bereaved?
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snarkjeg 11 minutes ago

It doesn't. But, if it makes my grandma happy to think she is sending positive vibes, great. Similarly, if people are reminded to be more moral and better citizens by fearing their god, I think it is an overall benefit (though there obviously are people who abuse grandmas out there by preying (sorry about the pun) on their beliefs.
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Travis Weston

acidburn 15 hours ago

Well being cynical really doesn't help either. If I had to choose between prayer and cynicism then I would choose prayer. At least it is something positive.
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acidburn

Travis Weston 15 hours ago

So when someone is praying to Allah to help him kill the infidels, then it is a positive thing?
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Travis Weston 9

acidburn 15 hours ago

Well it is a positive for them : ) Down with the infidels!

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John McKay 2 JustAQuestion

Travis Weston 4 hours ago

Yes, positively asinine.

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acidburn 14 hours ago

We pray for the families for their grace, strength and peace of mind and heart in this terrible time for them. If you were in this same situation with a lost loved one, we would pray for you as well.
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acidburn 13 Llort

JustAQuestion 14 hours ago

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Please don't do me any favours.

acidburn 3 hours ago

HAHAHA I LOVE HEATHENS LIKE YOU. ALWAYS FIRST TO CAST A STONE, BUT THE MINUTE YOUR MOMMY CATCHES CANCER YOU WILL BE ON FACEBOOK LIKE "PLEASE PRAY FOR MY FAMILY WAHHHHHH"
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Scrotumsen 2

Llort an hour ago

You would probably like to believe that, but don't count on it.
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wing_ding 2 sea eagle

Llort 3 hours ago

I doubt that ...

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JustAQuestion 2 hours ago

if we are to assume prayer has powers then perhaps it would be a good idea use its powers at the origin of the problem, in factories that make lithium ion batteries and aircraft.... thus http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/24/opinion/abend-explaining-flight-370/index.html?iid=article_sidebar

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Opinion: How mechanical problem could have downed Flight 370 - CNN.com factories that make lithium ion batteries and aircraft.... thus ensuring maximum effect......go GOD...
1 Cezz
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acidburn 15 hours ago

Prayer, amongst other things, reveals the condition of your heart. But you wouldn't understand, I suspect.
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acidburn

Cezz 15 hours ago

Prayer, amongst other things, reveals the intelligence of the poster.

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PreachJohn

acidburn 13 hours ago

Yes, indicative of spiritual genius. So very powerful betimes, when effectually employed with an enlightened understanding. We who are legion upon legion internationally know that we know. Something your darkened psyche cannot presently grasp. Wish you the very best anyhow. Seriously, of course. Ciao!
1 herbys
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PreachJohn 10 hours ago

Need more info. Are you saying that praying can relief pain on those grieving (in which case the praying of those not directly affected will achieve nothing for those that were), that those affected directly will be relieved somehow by knowing (through this forum?) that people of other faiths are praying to their respective deities (would surprise me) or that praying actually changes reality through divine intervention (a concept for which there's absolutely no evidence in favor other than anecdotal evidence of little value and tons of hard evidence against, starting by the fact that it is almost certain that many of those in the plane were praying during the events that led to their demise)? Or something else? I understand if praying makes you feel good, and there may be evidence to support that (there's mild evidence in both directions on this point, nothing conclusive) but you don't seem to be claiming that so I don't get your point (other than the fact that you consider that anyone that try to be as rational as possible and don't believe in things out of faith (that is, for no reason at all) have a dark psyche, in which case I will respectfully disagree. Nothing dark with my psyche.
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