INRODUCTION

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-
surface air and oceans since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation. Global
surface temperature increased 0.74 0.!" #$%!.&& 0.&2 #'( during the last century. )he
*ntergovernmental +anel on $limate $hange %*+$$( concludes that increasing
greenhouse gas concentrations resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning
and deforestation caused most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of
the 20th century. )he *+$$ also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as
solar radiation and volcanoes produced most of the ,arming from pre-industrial times to
!-.0 and had a small cooling effect after,ard. )hese basic conclusions have been
endorsed by more than 40 scientific societies and academies of science/ including all of
the national academies of science of the major industriali0ed countries. 1 small number
of scientists dispute the consensus vie,.
$limate model projections summari0ed in the latest *+$$ report indicate that the
global surface temperature ,ill probably rise a further !.! to 2.4 #$ %2.0 to !!.. #'(
during the t,enty-first century.)he uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of
models ,ith differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations and the use of
differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emissions. 3ome other uncertainties include
ho, ,arming and related changes ,ill vary from region to region around the globe. 4ost
studies focus on the period up to the year 2!00. 5o,ever/ ,arming is e6pected to
continue beyond 2!00 even if emissions stop/ because of the large heat capacityof the
oceans and the long lifetime of carbon dio6ide in the atmosphere.
1n increase in global temperature ,ill cause sea levels to rise and ,ill change the
amount and pattern of precipitation/ probably including e6pansion of subtropical
deserts.)he continuing retreat of glaciers/ permafrost and sea ice is e6pected/ ,ith
,arming being strongest in the 1rctic. 7ther li8ely effects include increases in the
intensity of e6trem ,eather events/ species e6tinctions/ and changes in agricultural yields.
+olitical and public debate continues regarding climate change/ and ,hat actions
%if any( to ta8e in response. )he available options are mitigation to reduce further
emissions9 adaptation to reduce the damage caused by ,arming9 and/ more speculatively/
geoengineering to reverse global ,arming. 4ost national governments have signed and
ratified the :yoto +rotocol aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Global mean surface temperature difference from the average for !-2!;!--0

4ean surface temperature change for the period !--- to 200" relative to the average
temperatures from !-40 to !-"0
Temperature changes
4ain article< )emperature record
),o millennia of mean surface temperatures according to different reconstructions/ each
smoothed on a decadal scale. )he unsmoothed/ annual value for 2004 is also plotted for
reference.
)he most commonly discussed measure of global ,arming is the trend in globally
averaged temperature near the Earth's surface. E6pressed as a linear trend/ this
temperature rose by 0.74#$ 0.!"#$ over the period !-02-200.. )he rate of ,arming
over the last .0 years of that period ,as almost double that for the period as a ,hole
%0.!&#$ 0.0&#$ per decade/ versus 0.07#$ 0.02#$ per decade(. )he urban heat island
effect is estimated to account for about 0.002 #$ of ,arming per decade since !-00.
)emperatures in the lo,er troposphere have increased bet,een 0.!2 and 0.22 #$ %0.22
and 0.4 #'( per decade since !-7-/ according to satellite temperature measurements.
)emperature is believed to have been relatively stable over the one or t,o thousand years
before !".0/ ,ith regionally-varying fluctuations such as the 4edieval =arm +eriod or
the >ittle *ce 1ge.
?ased on estimates by @131's Goddard *nstitute for 3pace 3tudies/ 200. ,as the
,armest year since reliable/ ,idespread instrumental measurements became available in
the late !"00s/ e6ceeding the previous record set in !--" by a fe, hundredths of a
degree. Estimates prepared by the =orld 4eteorological 7rgani0ation and the $limatic
Aesearch Bnit concluded that 200. ,as the second ,armest year/ behind !--".
)emperatures in !--" ,ere unusually ,arm because the strongest El @iCo in the past
century occurred during that year.
)emperature changes vary over the globe. 3ince !-7-/ land temperatures have increased
about t,ice as fast as ocean temperatures %0.2. #$ per decade against 0.!& #$ per
decade(.7cean temperatures increase more slo,ly than land temperatures because of the
larger effective heat capacity of the oceans and because the ocean loses more heat by
evaporation. )he @orthern 5emisphere ,arms faster than the 3outhern 5emisphere
because it has more land and because it has e6tensive areas of seasonal sno, and sea-ice
cover subject to the ice-albedo feedbac8. 1lthough more greenhouse gases are emitted in
the @orthern than 3outhern 5emisphere this does not contribute to the difference in
,arming because the major greenhouse gases persist long enough to mi6 bet,een
hemispheres.
)he thermal inertia of the oceans and slo, responses of other indirect effects mean that
climate can ta8e centuries or longer to adjust to changes in forcing. $limate
commitmentstudies indicate that even if greenhouse gases ,ere stabili0ed at 2000 levels/
a further ,arming of about 0.. #$ %0.- #'( ,ould still occur.
Radiative forcing
4ain article< Aadiative forcing
E6ternal forcing is a term used in climate science for processes e6ternal to the climate
system %though not necessarily e6ternal to Earth(. $limate responds to several types of
e6ternal forcing/ such as changes in greenhouse gas concentrations/ changes in solar
luminosity/ volcanic eruptions/ and variations in Earth's orbit around the 3un. 1ttribution
of recent climate change focuses on the first three types of forcing. 7rbital cycles vary
slo,ly over tens of thousands of years and thus are too gradual to have caused the
temperature changes observed in the past century.
Greenhouse gases
4ain articles< Greenhouse gas and Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse effect schematic sho,ing energy flo,s bet,een space/ the atmosphere/ and
earth's surface. Energy e6changes are e6pressed in ,atts per sDuare meter %=Em
2
(.

Aecent atmospheric carbon dio6ide %$7
2
( increases. 4onthly $7
2
measurements display
seasonal oscillations in overall yearly uptrend9 each year's ma6imum occurs during the
@orthern 5emisphere's late spring/ and declines during its gro,ing season as plants
remove some atmospheric $7
2
.
)he greenhouse effect is the process by ,hich absorption and emission of infrared
radiation by gases in the atmosphere ,arm a planet's lo,er atmosphere and surface. *t
,as discovered by Foseph 'ourier in !"24 and ,as first investigated Duantitatively by
3vante 1rrhenius in !"-2. E6istence of the greenhouse effect as such is not disputed/
even by those ,ho do not agree that the recent temperature increase is attributable to
human activity. )he Duestion is instead ho, the strength of the greenhouse effect changes
,hen human activity increases the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
@aturally occurring greenhouse gases have a mean ,arming effect of about && #$
%.- #'(. )he major greenhouse gases are ,ater vapor/ ,hich causes about &2;70 percent
of the greenhouse effect9 carbon dio6ide %$7
2
(/ ,hich causes -;22 percent9
methane%$5
4
(/ ,hich causes 4;- percent and o0one %7
&
(/ ,hich causes &;7 percent.
$louds also affect the radiation balance/ but they are composed of liDuid ,ater or ice and
so are considered separately from ,ater vapor and other gases.
5uman activity since the *ndustrial Aevolution has increased the amount of greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere/ leading to increased radiative forcing from $7
2
/ methane/
tropospheric o0one/ $'$s and nitrous o6ide. )he concentrations of $7
2
and methane
have increased by &2G and !4"G respectively since the mid-!700s. )hese levels are
much higher than at any time during the last 2.0/000 years/ the period for ,hich reliable
data has been e6tracted from ice cores. >ess direct geological evidence indicates that $7
2
values this high ,ere last seen about 20 million years ago. 'ossil fuel burning has
produced about three-Duarters of the increase in $7
2
from human activity over the past
20 years. 4ost of the rest is due to land-use change/ particularly deforestation.
$7
2
concentrations are continuing to rise due to burning of fossil fuels and land-use
change. )he future rate of rise ,ill depend on uncertain economic/ sociological/
technological/ and natural developments. 1ccordingly/ the *+$$ 3pecial Aeport on
Emissions 3cenarios gives a ,ide range of future $7
2
scenarios/ ranging from .4! to -70
ppm by the year 2!00. 'ossil fuel reserves are sufficient to reach these levels and
continue emissions past 2!00 if coal/ tar sands or methane clathrates are e6tensively
e6ploited.
)he destruction of stratospheric o0one by chlorofluorocarbons is sometimes mentioned in
relation to global ,arming. 1lthough there are a fe, areas of lin8age/ the relationship
bet,een the t,o is not strong. Aeduction of stratospheric o0one has a cooling influence/
but substantial o0one depletion did not occur until the late !-70s. )ropospheric o0one
contributes to surface ,arming.
Aerosols and soot
3hip trac8s over the 1tlantic 7cean on the east coast of the Bnited 3tates. )he climatic
impacts from aerosol forcing could have a large effect on climate through the indirect
effect.
Global dimming/ a gradual reduction in the amount of global direct irradiance at the
Earth's surface/ has partially counteracted global ,arming from !-20 to the present. )he
main cause of this dimming is aerosols produced by volcanoes and pollutants. )hese
aerosols e6ert a cooling effect by increasing the reflection of incoming sunlight. Fames
5ansen and colleagues have proposed that the effects of the products of fossil fuel
combustionH$7
2
and aerosolsHhave largely offset one another in recent decades/ so
that net ,arming has been driven mainly by non-$7
2
greenhouse gases.
*n addition to their direct effect by scattering and absorbing solar radiation/ aerosols have
indirect effects on the radiation budget. 3ulfate aerosols act as cloud condensation nuclei
and thus lead to clouds that have more and smaller cloud droplets. )hese clouds reflect
solar radiation more efficiently than clouds ,ith fe,er and larger droplets. )his effect
also causes droplets to be of more uniform si0e/ ,hich reduces gro,th of raindrops and
ma8es the cloud more reflective to incoming sunlight.
3oot may cool or ,arm/ depending on ,hether it is airborne or deposited. 1tmospheric
soot aerosols directly absorb solar radiation/ ,hich heats the atmosphere and cools the
surface. Aegionally %but not globally(/ as much as .0G of surface ,arming due to
greenhouse gases may be mas8ed by atmospheric bro,n clouds. =hen deposited/
especially on glaciers or on ice in arctic regions/ the lo,er surface albedo can also
directly heat the surface. )he influences of aerosols/ including blac8 carbon/ are most
pronounced in the tropics and sub-tropics/ particularly in 1sia/ ,hile the effects of
greenhouse gases are dominant in the e6tratropics and southern hemisphere.
Solar variation
4ain article< 3olar variation
3olar variation over the last thirty years.
Iariations in solar output have been the cause of past climate changes. 1lthough solar
forcing is generally thought to be too small to account for a significant part of global
,arming in recent decades/ a fe, studies disagree/ such as a recent phenomenological
analysis that indicates the contribution of solar forcing may be underestimated.
Greenhouse gases and solar forcing affect temperatures in different ,ays. =hile both
increased solar activity and increased greenhouse gases are e6pected to ,arm the
troposphere/ an increase in solar activity should ,arm the stratosphere ,hile an increase
in greenhouse gases should cool the stratosphere. 7bservations sho, that temperatures in
the stratosphere have been steady or cooling since !-7-/ ,hen satellite measurements
became available. Aadiosonde %,eather balloon( data from the pre-satellite era sho,
cooling since !-."/ though there is greater uncertainty in the early radiosonde record.
1 related hypothesis/ proposed by 5enri8 3vensmar8/ is that magnetic activity of the sun
deflects cosmic rays that may influence the generation of cloud condensation nuclei and
thereby affect the climate. 7ther research has found no relation bet,een ,arming in
recent decades and cosmic rays. 1 recent study concluded that the influence of cosmic
rays on cloud cover is about a factor of !00 lo,er than needed to e6plain the observed
changes in clouds or to be a significant contributor to present-day climate change.
Feedback
4ain article< Effects of global ,arming
1 positive feedbac8 is a process that amplifies some change. )hus/ ,hen a ,arming trend
results in effects that induce further ,arming/ the result is a positive feedbac89 ,hen the
,arming results in effects that reduce the original ,arming/ the result is a negative
feedbac8. )he main positive feedbac8 in global ,arming involves the tendency of
,arming to increase the amount of ,ater vapor in the atmosphere. )he main negative
feedbac8 in global ,arming is the effect of temperature on emission of infrared radiation<
as the temperature of a body increases/ the emitted radiation increases ,ith the fourth
po,er of its absolute temperature.
=ater vapor feedbac8
*f the atmosphere is ,armed/ the saturation vapor pressure increases/ and the
amount of ,ater vapor in the atmosphere ,ill tend to increase. 3ince ,ater vapor
is a greenhouse gas/ the increase in ,ater vapor content ma8es the atmosphere
,arm further9 this ,arming causes the atmosphere to hold still more ,ater vapor
%a positive feedbac8(/ and so on until other processes stop the feedbac8 loop. )he
result is a much larger greenhouse effect than that due to $7
2
alone. 1lthough this
feedbac8 process causes an increase in the absolute moisture content of the air/
the relative humidity stays nearly constant or even decreases slightly because the
air is ,armer.
$loud feedbac8
=arming is e6pected to change the distribution and type of clouds. 3een from
belo,/ clouds emit infrared radiation bac8 to the surface/ and so e6ert a ,arming
effect9 seen from above/ clouds reflect sunlight and emit infrared radiation to
space/ and so e6ert a cooling effect. =hether the net effect is ,arming or cooling
depends on details such as the type and altitude of the cloud. )hese details ,ere
poorly observed before the advent of satellite data and are difficult to represent in
climate models.
>apse rate
)he atmosphere's temperature decreases ,ith height in the troposphere. 3ince
emission of infrared radiation varies ,ith temperature/ long,ave radiation
escaping to space from the relatively cold upper atmosphere is less than that
emitted to,ard the ground from the lo,er atmosphere. )hus/ the strength of the
greenhouse effect depends on the atmosphere's rate of temperature decrease ,ith
height. ?oth theory and climate models indicate that global ,arming ,ill reduce
the rate of temperature decrease ,ith height/ producing a negative lapse rate
feedback that ,ea8ens the greenhouse effect. 4easurements of the rate of
temperature change ,ith height are very sensitive to small errors in observations/
ma8ing it difficult to establish ,hether the models agree ,ith observations.
*ce-albedo feedbac8
1erial photograph sho,ing a section of sea ice. )he lighter blue areas are melt
ponds and the dar8est areas are open ,ater/ both have a lo,er albedo than the
,hite sea ice. )he melting ice contributes to the ice-albedo feedbac8.
=hen ice melts/ land or open ,ater ta8es its place. ?oth land and open ,ater are
on average less reflective than ice and thus absorb more solar radiation. )his
causes more ,arming/ ,hich in turn causes more melting/ and this cycle
continues.
1rctic methane release
=arming is also the triggering variable for the release of methane in the arctic.
4ethane released from tha,ing permafrost such as the fro0en peat bogs in
3iberia/ and from methane clathrate on the sea floor/ creates a positive feedbac8.
Aeduced absorption of $7
2
by the oceans
7cean ecosystems' ability to seDuester carbon is e6pected to decline as the oceans
,arm. )his is because ,arming reduces the nutrient levels of the mesopelagic
0one %about 200 to !000 m deep(/ ,hich limits the gro,th of diatoms in favor of
smaller phytoplan8ton that are poorer biological pumps of carbon.
Gas release
Aelease of gases of biological origin may be affected by global ,arming/ but
research into such effects is at an early stage. 3ome of these gases/ such as
@itrous o6ide released from peat/ directly affect climate. 7thers/ such as Jimethyl
sulfide released from oceans/ have indirect effects.
Climate models
4ain article< Global climate model
$alculations of global ,arming prepared in or before 200! from a range of climate
models under the 3AE3 12 emissions scenario/ ,hich assumes no action is ta8en to
reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.

)he geographic distribution of surface ,arming during the 2!
st
century calculated by the
5ad$4& climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic gro,th
and greenhouse gas emissions. *n this figure/ the globally averaged ,arming corresponds
to &.0 #$ %..4 #'(.
)he main tools for projecting future climate changes are mathematical models based on
physical principles including fluid dynamics/ thermodynamics and radiative transfer.
1lthough they attempt to include as many processes as possible/ simplifications of the
actual climate system are inevitable because of the constraints of available computer
po,er and limitations in 8no,ledge of the climate system. 1ll modern climate models
are in fact combinations of models for different parts of the Earth. )hese include an
atmospheric model for air movement/ temperature/ clouds/ and other atmospheric
properties9 an ocean model that predicts temperature/ salt content/ and circulation of
ocean ,aters9 models for ice cover on land and sea9 and a model of heat and moisture
transfer from soil and vegetation to the atmosphere. 3ome models also include treatments
of chemical and biological processes. =arming due to increasing levels of greenhouse
gases is not an assumption of the models9 rather/ it is an end result from the interaction of
greenhouse gases ,ith radiative transfer and other physical processes in the models.
1lthough much of the variation in model outcomes depends on the greenhouse gas
emissions used as inputs/ the temperature effect of a specific greenhouse gas
concentration %climate sensitivity( varies depending on the model used. )he
representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation
models.
Global climate model projections of future climate most often have used estimates of
greenhouse gas emissions from the *+$$ 3pecial Aeport on Emissions 3cenarios %3AE3(.
*n addition to human-caused emissions/ some models also include a simulation of the
carbon cycle9 this generally sho,s a positive feedbac8/ though this response is uncertain.
3ome observational studies also sho, a positive feedbac8. *ncluding uncertainties in
future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate sensitivity/ the *+$$ anticipates a
,arming of !.! #$ to 2.4 #$ %2.0 #' to !!.. #'( by the end of the 2!st century/ relative to
!-"0;!---.
4odels are also used to help investigate the causes of recent climate change by
comparing the observed changes to those that the models project from various natural and
human-derived causes. 1lthough these models do not unambiguously attribute the
,arming that occurred from appro6imately !-!0 to !-4. to either natural variation or
human effects/ they do indicate that the ,arming since !-70 is dominated by man-made
greenhouse gas emissions.
)he physical realism of models is tested by e6amining their ability to simulate current or
past climates. $urrent climate models produce a good match to observations of global
temperature changes over the last century/ but do not simulate all aspects of climate.
=hile a 2007 study by Javid Jouglass and colleagues found that the models did not
accurately predict observed changes in the tropical troposphere/ a 200" paper published
by a !7-member team led by ?en 3anter noted errors and incorrect assumptions in the
Jouglass study/ and found instead that the models and observations ,ere not statistically
different. @ot all effects of global ,arming are accurately predicted by the climate
models used by the *+$$. 'or e6ample/ observed 1rctic shrin8age has been faster than
that predicted.
Attributed and expected effects
Environmental
4ain articles< Effects of global ,arming and Aegional effects of global ,arming
3parse records indicate that glaciers have been retreating since the early !"00s. *n the
!-.0s measurements began that allo, the monitoring of glacial mass balance/ reported to
the =G43 and the @3*J$.
*t usually is impossible to connect specific ,eather events to global ,arming. *nstead/
global ,arming is e6pected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of
events/ such as changes to the freDuency and intensity of heavy precipitation. ?roader
effects are e6pected to include glacial retreat/ 1rctic shrin8age/ and ,orld,ide sea level
rise. 3ome effects on both the natural environment and human life are/ at least in part/
already being attributed to global ,arming. 1 200! report by the *+$$ suggests that
glacier retreat/ ice shelf disruption such as that of the >arsen *ce 3helf/ sea level rise/
changes in rainfall patterns/ and increased intensity and freDuency of e6treme ,eather
events are attributable in part to global ,arming. 7ther e6pected effects include ,ater
scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others/ changes in mountain
sno,pac8/ and some adverse health effects from ,armer temperatures.3ocial and
economic effects of global ,arming may be e6acerbated by gro,ing population densities
in affected areas. )emperate regions are projected to e6perience some benefits/ such as
fe,er cold-related deaths. 1 summary of probable effects and recent understanding can
be found in the report made for the *+$$ )hird 1ssessment Aeport by =or8ing Group **.
)he ne,er *+$$ 'ourth 1ssessment Aeport summary reports that there is observational
evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the @orth 1tlantic 7cean
since about !-70/ in correlation ,ith the increase in sea surface temperature %see 1tlantic
4ultidecadal 7scillation(/ but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the
Duality of records prior to routine satellite observations. )he summary also states that
there is no clear trend in the annual ,orld,ide number of tropical cyclones.
1dditional anticipated effects include sea level rise of 0.!" to 0..- meters %0..- to !.- ft(
in 20-0-2!00 relative to !-"0-!---/ ne, trade routes resulting from arctic shrin8age/
possible thermohaline circulation slo,ing/ increasingly intense %but less freDuent(
hurricanes and e6treme ,eather events/ reductions in the o0one layer/ changes in
agriculture yields/ changes in the range of climate-dependent disease vectors/ ,hich has
been lin8ed to increases in the prevalence of malaria and dengue fever/ and ocean o6ygen
depletion. *ncreased atmospheric $7
2
increases the amount of $7
2
dissolved in the
oceans. $7
2
dissolved in the ocean reacts ,ith ,ater to form carbonic acid/ resulting in
ocean acidification. 7cean surface p5 is estimated to have decreased from ".2. near the
beginning of the industrial era to ".!4 by 2004/ and is projected to decrease by a further
0.!4 to 0.. units by 2!00 as the ocean absorbs more $7
2
. 5eat and carbon dio6ide
trapped in the oceans may still ta8e hundreds years to be re-emitted/ even after
greenhouse gas emissions are eventually reduced. 3ince organisms and ecosystems are
adapted to a narro, range of p5/ this raises e6tinction concerns and disruptions in food
,ebs.7ne study predicts !"G to &.G of a sample of !/!0& animal and plant species
,ould be e6tinct by 20.0/ based on future climate projections. 5o,ever/ fe, mechanistic
studies have documented e6tinctions due to recent climate change/ and one study
suggests that projected rates of e6tinction are uncertain.
)he )ibetan +lateau contains the ,orld's third-largest store of ice. Kin Jahe/ the former
head of the $hina 4eteorological 1dministration/ said that the recent fast pace of melting
and ,armer temperatures ,ill be good for agriculture and tourism in the short term9 but
issued a strong ,arning<
L)emperatures are rising four times faster than else,here in $hina/ and the )ibetan glaciers are
retreating at a higher speed than in any other part of the ,orld.L L*n the short term/ this ,ill cause
la8es to e6pand and bring floods and mudflo,s.L L*n the long run/ the glaciers are vital lifelines
for 1sian rivers/ including the *ndus and the Ganges. 7nce they vanish/ ,ater supplies in those
regions ,ill be in peril.L
Economic
4ain articles< Economics of global ,arming and >o,-carbon economy
+rojected temperature increase for a range of stabili0ation scenarios %the colored bands(.
)he blac8 line in middle of the shaded area indicates 'best estimates'9 the red and the blue
lines the li8ely limits. 'rom *+$$ 1A4.
)he *+$$ reports the aggregate net economic costs of damages from climate change
globally %discounted to the specified year(. *n 200./ the average social cost of carbon
from !00 peer-revie,ed estimates is B3M!2 per tonne of $7
2
/ but range -M& to M-.Et$7
2
.
)he *+$$'s gives these cost estimates ,ith the caveats/ L1ggregate estimates of costs
mas8 significant differences in impacts across sectors/ regions and populations and very
likely underestimate damage costs because they cannot include many non-Duantifiable
impacts.L
7ne ,idely publici0ed report on potential economic impact is the 3tern Aevie,/ ,ritten
by 3ir @icholas 3tern. *t suggests that e6treme ,eather might reduce global gross
domestic product by up to one percent/ and that in a ,orst-case scenario global per capita
consumption could fall by the eDuivalent of 20 percent. )he response to the 3tern Aevie,
,as mi6ed. )he Aevie,'s methodology/ advocacy and conclusions ,ere critici0ed by
several economists/ including Aichard )ol/ Gary Nohe/ Aobert 4endelsohn and =illiam
@ordhaus. Economists that have generally supported the Aevie, include )erry ?ar8er/
=illiam $line/ and 'ran8 1c8erman. 1ccording to ?ar8er/ the costs of mitigating climate
change are 'insignificant' relative to the ris8s of unmitigated climate change.
1ccording to Bnited @ations Environment +rogramme %B@E+(/ economic sectors li8ely
to face difficulties related to climate change include ban8s/ agriculture/ transport and
others. Jeveloping countries dependent upon agriculture ,ill be particularly harmed by
global ,arming.
Responses to global warming
)he broad agreement among climate scientists that global temperatures ,ill continue to
increase has led some nations/ states/ corporations and individuals to implement
responses. )hese responses to global ,arming can be divided into mitigation of the
causes and effects of global ,arming/ adaptation to the changing global environment/ and
geoengineering to reverse global ,arming.
itigation
4ain article< 4itigation of global ,arming
$arbon capture and storage %$$3( is an approach to mitigation. Emissions may be
seDuestered from fossil fuel po,er plants/ or removed during processing in hydrogen
production. =hen used on plants/ it is 8no,n as bio-energy ,ith carbon capture and
storage.
4itigation of global ,arming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of
anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. 4odels suggest that mitigation can Duic8ly begin
to slo, global ,arming/ but that temperatures ,ill appreciably decrease only after
several centuries. )he ,orld's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse
gas emissions is the :yoto +rotocol/ an amendment to the B@'$$$ negotiated in !--7.
)he +rotocol no, covers more than !20 countries and over .. percent of global
greenhouse gas emissions. 1s of Fune 200-/ only the Bnited 3tates/ historically the
,orld's largest emitter of greenhouse gases/ has refused to ratify the treaty. )he treaty
e6pires in 20!2. *nternational tal8s began in 4ay 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the
current one. B@ negotiations are no, gathering pace in advance of a meeting in
$openhagen in Jecember 200-.
4any environmental groups encourage individual action against global ,arming/ as ,ell
as community and regional actions. 7thers have suggested a Duota on ,orld,ide fossil
fuel production/ citing a direct lin8 bet,een fossil fuel production and $7
2
emissions.

)here has also been business action on climate change/ including efforts to improve
energy efficiency and limited moves to,ards use of alternative fuels. *n Fanuary 200. the
European Bnion introduced its European Bnion Emission )rading 3cheme/ through
,hich companies in conjunction ,ith government agree to cap their emissions or to
purchase credits from those belo, their allo,ances. 1ustralia announced its $arbon
+ollution Aeduction 3cheme in 200". Bnited 3tates +resident ?arac8 7bama has
announced plans to introduce an economy-,ide cap and trade scheme.
)he *+$$'s =or8ing Group *** is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global
,arming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. )he 2007 *+$$ 'ourth
1ssessment Aeport concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely
responsible for mitigating future ,arming. )hey find there are 8ey practices and
technologies in various sectors/ such as energy supply/ transportation/ industry/ and
agriculture/ that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. )hey estimate that
stabili0ation of carbon dio6ide eDuivalent bet,een 44. and 7!0 ppm by 20&0 ,ill result
in bet,een a 0.2 percent increase and three percent decrease in global gross domestic
product.
Adaptation
4ain article< 1daptation to global ,arming
1 ,ide variety of measures have been suggested for adaptation to global ,arming. )hese
measures range from the trivial/ such as the installation of air-conditioning eDuipment/ to
major infrastructure projects/ such as abandoning settlements threatened by sea level rise.
4easures including ,ater conservation/ ,ater rationing/ adaptive agricultural practices/
construction of flood defences/ 4artian coloni0ation/ changes to medical care/ and
interventions to protect threatened species have all been suggested. 1 ,ide-ranging study
of the possible opportunities for adaptation of infrastructure has been published by the
*nstitute of 4echanical Engineers.
Geoengineering
4ain article< Geoengineering
Geoengineering is the deliberate modification of Earth's natural environment on a large
scale to suit human needs. 1n e6ample is greenhouse gas remediation/ ,hich removes
greenhouse gases from the atmosphere/ usually through carbon seDuestration techniDues
such as carbon dio6ide air capture. 3olar radiation management reduces insolation/ such
as by the addition of stratospheric sulfur aerosols. @o large-scale geoengineering projects
have yet been underta8en.
!ebate and skepticism
4ain articles< Global ,arming controversy and +olitics of global ,arming
3ee also< 3cientific opinion on climate change and $limate change denial
+er capita greenhouse gas emissions in 2000/ including land-use change.

+er country greenhouse gas emissions in 2000/ including land-use change.
*ncreased publicity of the scientific findings surrounding global ,arming has resulted in
political and economic debate. +oor regions/ particularly 1frica/ appear at greatest ris8
from the projected effects of global ,arming/ ,hile their emissions have been small
compared to the developed ,orld. )he e6emption of developing countries from :yoto
+rotocol restrictions has been used to rationali0e non-ratification by the B.3. and
criticism from 1ustralia. 1nother point of contention is the degree to ,hich emerging
economies such as *ndia and $hina should be e6pected to constrain their emissions. )he
B.3. contends that if it must bear the cost of reducing emissions/ then $hina should do
the same since $hina's gross national $7
2
emissions no, e6ceed those of the B.3. $hina
has contended that it is less obligated to reduce emissions since its per capita
responsibility and per capita emissions are less that of the B.3. *ndia/ also e6empt/ has
made similar contentions.
*n 2007-200" the Gallup +olls surveyed !27 countries. 7ver a third of the ,orld's
population ,ere una,are of global ,arming/ developing countries less a,are than
developed/ and 1frica the least a,are. 1,areness does not eDuate to belief that global
,arming is a result of human activities. 7f those a,are/ >atin 1merica leads in belief
that temperature changes are a result of human activities ,hile 1frica/ parts of 1sia and
the 4iddle East/ and a fe, countries from the 'ormer 3oviet Bnion lead in the opposite.
*n the ,estern ,orld/ the concept and the appropriate responses are contested. @ic8
+idgeon of $ardiff Bniversity finds that Lresults sho, the different stages of engagement
about global ,arming on each side of the 1tlanticL ,here Europe debates the appropriate
responses ,hile the Bnited 3tates debates ,hether climate change is happening.
Jebates ,eigh the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against
the costs that such changes ,ould entail. Bsing economic incentives/ alternative and
rene,able energy have been promoted to reduce emissions ,hile building infrastructure.
?usiness-centered organi0ations such as the $ompetitive Enterprise *nstitute/
conservative commentators/ and companies such as E66on4obil have do,nplayed *+$$
climate change scenarios/ funded scientists ,ho disagree ,ith the scientific consensus/
and provided their o,n projections of the economic cost of stricter controls.
Environmental organi0ations and public figures have emphasi0ed changes in the current
climate and the ris8s they entail/ ,hile promoting adaptation to changes in infrastructural
needs and emissions reductions. 3ome fossil fuel companies have scaled bac8 their
efforts in recent years/ or called for policies to reduce global ,arming.
3ome global ,arming s8eptics in the science or political community dispute all or some
of the global ,arming scientific consensus objecting to ,hether global ,arming is
actually occurring/ if human activity is truly to blame/ and if the threat is as great a threat
as has been alleged. +rominent global ,arming s8eptics include Aichard >ind0en/ 'red
3inger/ +atric8 4ichaels/ Fohn $hristy/ and Aobert ?alling.
Glossar" of Climate Change#
Carbon c"cle
Jiagram of the carbon cycle. )he blac8 numbers indicate ho, much carbon is stored in
various reservoirs/ in billions of tons %LGt$L stands for Giga)ons of $arbon and figures
are circa 2004(. )he purple numbers indicate ho, much carbon moves bet,een
reservoirs each year. )he sediments/ as defined in this diagram/ do not include the O70
million Gt$ of carbonate roc8 and 8erogen.
)he carbon c"cle is the biogeochemical cycle by ,hich carbon is e6changed among the
biosphere/ pedosphere/ geosphere/ hydrosphere/ and atmosphere of the Earth.
)he carbon cycle is usually thought of as four major reservoirs of carbon interconnected
by path,ays of e6change. )hese reservoirs are<
)he plants
)he terrestrial biosphere/ ,hich is usually defined to include fresh ,ater systems
and non-living organic material/ such as soil carbon.
)he oceans/ including dissolved inorganic carbon and living and non-living
marine biota/
)he sediments including fossil fuels.
)he annual movements of carbon/ the carbon e6changes bet,een reservoirs/ occur
because of various chemical/ physical/ geological/ and biological processes. )he ocean
contains the largest active pool of carbon near the surface of the Earth/ but the deep ocean
part of this pool does not rapidly e6change ,ith the atmosphere.
$n the Atmosphere
$arbon e6ists in the Earth's atmosphere primarily as the gas carbon dio6ide %$7
2
(.
1lthough it is a small percentage of the atmosphere %appro6imately 0.04G on a
molar basis/ and increasing(/ it plays an important role in supporting life. 7ther
gases containing carbon in the atmosphere are methane and chlorofluorocarbons
%the latter is entirely anthropogenic(. )he overall atmospheric concentration of
these greenhouse gases has been increasing in recent decades. )rees convert carbon
dio6ide into carbohydrates during photosynthesis/ releasing o6ygen in the process.
)his process is most prolific in relatively ne, forests ,here tree gro,th is still
rapid. )he effect is strongest in deciduous forests during spring leafing out. )his is
visible as an annual signal in the :eeling curve of measured $7
2
concentration.
@orthern hemisphere spring predominates/ as there is far more land in temperate
latitudes in that hemisphere than in the southern.
$arbon is released into the atmosphere in several ,ays<
)hrough the respiration performed by plants and animals. )his is an e6othermic
reaction and it involves the brea8ing do,n of glucose %or other organic
molecules( into carbon dio6ide and ,ater.
)hrough the decay of animal and plant matter. 'ungi and bacteria brea8 do,n the
carbon compounds in dead animals and plants and convert the carbon to carbon
dio6ide if o6ygen is present/ or methane if not.
)hrough combustion of organic material ,hich o6idi0es the carbon it contains/
producing carbon dio6ide %and other things/ li8e ,ater vapor(. ?urning fossil
fuels such as coal/ petroleum products/ and natural gas releases carbon that has
been stored in the geosphere for millions of years. ?urning agrofuels also releases
carbon dio6ide.
%edit& $n the biosphere
1round 42/000 gigatonnes of carbon are present in the biosphere. $arbon is an essential
part of life on Earth. *t plays an important role in the structure/ biochemistry/ and
nutrition of all living cells.
1utotrophs are organisms that produce their o,n organic compounds using
carbon dio6ide from the air or ,ater in ,hich they live. )o do this they reDuire an
e6ternal source of energy. 1lmost all autotrophs use solar radiation to provide
this/ and their production process is called photosynthesis. 1 small number of
autotrophs e6ploit chemical energy sources in a process called chemosynthesis.
)he most important autotrophs for the carbon cycle are trees in forests on land
and phytoplan8ton in the Earth's oceans. +hotosynthesis follo,s the reaction
2$7
2
P 25
2
7 Q $
2
5
!2
7
2
P 27
2

$arbon is transferred ,ithin the biosphere as heterotrophs feed on other
organisms or their parts %e.g./ fruits(. )his includes the upta8e of dead organic
material %detritus( by fungi and bacteria for fermentation or decay.
4ost carbon leaves the biosphere through respiration. =hen o6ygen is present/
aerobic respiration occurs/ ,hich releases carbon dio6ide into the surrounding air
or ,ater/ follo,ing the reaction $
2
5
!2
7
2
P 27
2
Q 2$7
2
P 25
2
7. 7ther,ise/
anaerobic respiration occurs and releases methane into the surrounding
environment/ ,hich eventually ma8es its ,ay into the atmosphere or hydrosphere
%e.g./ as marsh gas or flatulence(.
?urning of biomass %e.g. forest fires/ ,ood used for heating/ anything else
organic( can also transfer substantial amounts of carbon to the atmosphere
$arbon may also be circulated ,ithin the biosphere ,hen dead organic matter
%such as peat( becomes incorporated in the geosphere. 1nimal shells of calcium
carbonate/ in particular/ may eventually become limestone through the process of
sedimentation.
4uch remains to be learned about the cycling of carbon in the deep ocean. 'or
e6ample/ a recent discovery is that larvacean mucus houses %commonly 8no,n as
Lsin8ersL( are created in such large numbers that they can deliver as much carbon
to the deep ocean as has been previously detected by sediment traps.
R&S
?ecause of
their si0e and composition/ these houses are rarely collected in such traps/ so most
biogeochemical analyses have erroneously ignored them.
$arbon storage in the biosphere is influenced by a number of processes on different time-
scales< ,hile net primary productivity follo,s a diurnal and seasonal cycle/ carbon can be
stored up to several hundreds of years in trees and up to thousands of years in soils.
$hanges in those long term carbon pools %e.g. through de- or afforestation or through
temperature-related changes in soil respiration( may thus affect global climate change.
*n the ocean
*n oceans contain around &2/000 gigatonnes of carbon/ mostly in the form of bicarbonate
ion %over -0G/ ,ith most of the remainder being carbonate(. E6treme storms such as
hurricanes and typhoons bury a lot of carbon/ because they ,ash a,ay so much sediment.
'or instance/ a team reported in the Fuly 200" issue of the journal Geology that a single
typhoon in )ai,an buries as much carbon in the ocean -- in the form of sediment -- as all
the other rains in that country all year long combined. *norganic carbon/ that is carbon
compounds ,ith no carbon-carbon or carbon-hydrogen bonds/ is important in its
reactions ,ithin ,ater. )his carbon e6change becomes important in controlling p5 in the
ocean and can also vary as a source or sin8 for carbon. $arbon is readily e6changed
bet,een the atmosphere and ocean. *n regions of oceanic up,elling/ carbon is released to
the atmosphere. $onversely/ regions of do,n,elling transfer carbon %$7
2
( from the
atmosphere to the ocean. =hen $7
2
enters the ocean/ it participates in a series of
reactions ,hich are locally in eDuilibrium<
3olution<
$7
2
%atmospheric( $7
2
%dissolved(
$onversion to carbonic acid<
$7
2
%dissolved( P 5
2
7 5
2
$7
&

'irst ioni0ation<
5
2
$7
&
5
P
P 5$7
&
T
%bicarbonate ion(
3econd ioni0ation<
5$7
&
T
5
P
P $7
&
TT
%carbonate ion(
Fossil fuel
$oal/ one of the fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels or mineral fuels are fuels formed by natural resources such as anaerobic
decomposition of buried dead organisms. )he age of the organisms and their resulting
fossil fuels is typically millions of years/ and sometimes e6ceeds 2.0 million years.
)hese fuels contain high percentage of carbon and hydrocarbons.
'ossil fuels range from volatile materials ,ith lo, carbon<hydrogen ratios li8e methane/
to liDuid petroleum to nonvolatile materials composed of almost pure carbon/ li8e
anthracite coal. 4ethane can be found in hydrocarbon fields/ alone/ associated ,ith oil/
or in the form of methane clathrates. *t is generally accepted that they formed from the
fossili0ed remains of dead plants and animals by e6posure to heat and pressure in the
Earth's crust over hundreds of millions of years. )his biogenic theory ,as first introduced
by Georg 1gricola in !..2 and later by 4i8hail >omonosov in the !"th century.
*t ,as estimated by the Energy *nformation 1dministration that in 2002 primary sources
of energy consisted of petroleum &2."G/ coal 22.2G/ natural gas 22.-G/ amounting to an
"2G share for fossil fuels in primary energy production in the ,orld. @on-fossil sources
included hydroelectric 2.&G/ nuclear 2.0G/ and %geothermal/ solar/ tide/ ,ind/ ,ood/
,aste( amounting 0.- percent. =orld energy consumption ,as gro,ing about 2.&G per
year.
'ossil fuels are non-rene,able resources because they ta8e millions of years to form/ and
reserves are being depleted much faster than ne, ones are being formed. )he production
and use of fossil fuels raise environmental concerns. 1 global movement to,ard the
generation of rene,able energy is therefore under ,ay to help meet increased energy
needs.
)he burning of fossil fuels produces around 2!.& billion tonnes %2!.& gigatonnes( of
carbon dio6ide per year/ but it is estimated that natural processes can only absorb about
half of that amount/ so there is a net increase of !0.2. billion tonnes of atmospheric
carbon dio6ide per year %one tonne of atmospheric carbon is eDuivalent to 44E!2 or &.7
tonnes of carbon dio6ide(. $arbon dio6ide is one of the greenhouse gases that enhances
radiative forcing and contributes to global ,arming/ causing the average surface
temperature of the Earth to rise in response/ ,hich climate scientists agree ,ill cause
major adverse effects.
$mportance
1n oil ,ell in the Gulf of 4e6ico
'ossil fuels are of great importance because they can be burned %o6idi0ed to carbon
dio6ide and ,ater(/ producing significant amounts of energy. )he use of coal as a fuel
predates recorded history. $oal ,as used to run furnaces for the melting of metal ore.
3emi-solid hydrocarbons from seeps ,ere also burned in ancient times/ but these
materials ,ere mostly used for ,aterproofing and embalming.
5eavy crude oil/ ,hich is much more viscous than conventional crude oil/ and tar sands/
,here bitumen is found mi6ed ,ith sand and clay/ are becoming more important as
sources of fossil fuel. 7il shale and similar materials are sedimentary roc8s containing
8erogen/ a comple6 mi6ture of high-molecular ,eight organic compounds/ ,hich yield
synthetic crude oil ,hen heated %pyroly0ed(. )hese materials have yet to be e6ploited
commercially. )hese fuels are employed in internal combustion engines/ fossil fuel
po,er stations and other uses.
1 petrochemical refinery in Grangemouth/ 3cotland/ B:.
+rior to the latter half of the eighteenth century/ ,indmills or ,atermills provided the
energy needed for industry such as milling flour/ sa,ing ,ood or pumping ,ater/ and
burning ,ood or peat provided domestic heat. )he ,ide-scale use of fossil fuels/ coal at
first and petroleum later/ to fire steam engines/ enabled the *ndustrial Aevolution. 1t the
same time/ gas lights using natural gas or coal gas ,ere coming into ,ide use. )he
invention of the internal combustion engine and its use in automobiles and truc8s greatly
increased the demand for gasoline and diesel oil/ both made from fossil fuels. 7ther
forms of transportation/ rail,ays and aircraft also reDuired fossil fuels. )he other major
use for fossil fuels is in generating electricity and the petrochemical industry. )ar/ a
leftover of petroleum e6traction/ is used in construction of roads.
Index of climate change articals
Climate change
Climate change is any long-term change in the statistics of ,eather over
periods of time that range from decades to millions of years. *t can e6press
itself as a change in the mean ,eather conditions/ the probability of e6treme conditions/
or in any other part of the statistical distribution of ,eather. $limate change may occur in
a specific region/ or across the ,hole Earth.
*n recent usage/ especially in the conte6t of environmental policy/ climate change usually
refers to changes in modern climate %see global ,arming(. 'or information on
temperature measurements over various periods/ and the data sources available/ see
temperature record. 'or attribution of climate change over the past century/ see
attribution of recent climate change.

Causes
'actors that can shape climate are often called climate forcings. )hese include such
processes as variations in solar radiation/ deviations in the Earth's orbit/ and changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations. )here are a variety of climate change feedbac8s that can
either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. 3ome parts of the climate system/ such as
the oceans and ice caps/ respond slo,ly in reaction to climate forcing because of their
large mass. )herefore/ the climate system can ta8e centuries or longer to fully respond to
ne, e6ternal forcings.
'late tectonics
7ver the course of millions of years/ the motion of tectonic plates reconfigures global
land and ocean areas and generates topography. )his can affect both global and local
patterns of climate and atmosphere-ocean circulation.
)he position of the continents determines the geometry of the oceans and therefore
influences patterns of ocean circulation. ?ecause the circulation of the ocean and the
atmosphere are fundamentally lin8ed/ the locations of the continents are important in
controlling the transfer of heat and moisture across the globe/ and therefore/ in
determining global climate. 1 recent e6ample of tectonic control on ocean circulation is
the formation of the *sthmus of +anama about . million years ago/ ,hich shut off direct
mi6ing bet,een the 1tlantic and +acific 7ceans. )his strengthened the Gulf 3tream and
eventually led to @orthern 5emisphere ice cover. Earlier/ during the $arboniferous
period/ plate tectonics may have triggered the large-scale storage of carbon and increased
glaciation. Geologic evidence points to a LmegamonsoonalL circulation pattern during the
time of the supercontinent +angaea/ and climate modeling suggests that the e6istence of
the supercontinent ,as conductive to the establishment of monsoons.
Solar output
4ain article< 3olar variation
Iariations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations of
sunspots and beryllium isotopes.
)he sun is the predominant source for energy input to the Earth. ?oth long- and short-
term variations in solar intensity are noted to affect global climate.
Early in Earth's history the sun emitted only 70G as much po,er as it does today. =ith
the same atmospheric composition as e6ists today/ liDuid ,ater should not have e6isted
on Earth. 5o,ever/ there is evidence for the presence of ,ater on the early Earth/ in the
5adean and 1rchean eons/ leading to ,hat is 8no,n as the faint young su parado6.
5ypothesi0ed solutions to this parado6 include a vastly different atmosphere/ ,ith much
higher concentrations of greenhouse gases than currently e6ist/ and a stronger solar ,ind
that could shield the Earth from the cooling effects of cosmic rays. 7ver the follo,ing
appro6imately 4 billion years/ the energy output of the sun increased and atmospheric
composition changed/ ,ith the o6ygenation of the atmosphere being the most notable
alteration. )he luminosity of the sun ,ill continue to increase as it follo,s the main
seDuence. )hese changes in luminosity/ and the sun's ultimate death as it becomes a red
giant and then a ,hite d,arf/ ,ill have large effects on climate/ ,ith the red giant phase
possibly ending life on Earth.
(rbital variations
3light variations in Earth's orbit lead to changes in the amount of sunlight reaching the
Earth's surface and ho, it is distributed across the globe. )he former is similar to solar
variations in that there is a change to the po,er input from the sun to the Earth system.
)he latter is due to ho, the orbital variations affect ,hen and ,here sunlight is received
by the Earth. )he three types of orbital variations are variations in Earth's eccentricity/
changes in the tilt angle of Earth's a6is of rotation/ and precession of Earth's a6is.
$ombined together/ these produce 4ilan8ovitch cycles ,hich have a large impact on
climate and are notable for their correlation to glacial and interglacial periods/ their
correlation ,ith the advance and retreat of the 3ahara/ and for their appearance in the
stratigraphic record.
)olcanism
Iolcanism is the process of conveying material from the crust and mantle of the Earth to
its surface. Iolcanic eruptions/ geysers/ and hot springs/ are e6amples of volcanic
processes ,hich release gases andEor particulates into the atmosphere.
Eruptions large enough to affect climate occur on average several times per century/ and
cause cooling for a period of a fe, years. )he eruption of 4ount +inatubo in !--!/ the
second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century %after the !-!2 eruption of
@ovarupta( affected the climate substantially. Global temperatures decreased by about
0.. #$ %0.- #'(. 4uch larger eruptions/ 8no,n as large igneous provinces/ occur only a
fe, times every hundred million years/ but can reshape climate for millions of years and
cause mass e6tinctions. *nitially/ it ,as thought that the dust ejected into the atmosphere
from large volcanic eruptions ,as responsible for longer-term cooling by partially
bloc8ing the transmission of solar radiation to the Earth's surface. 5o,ever/
measurements indicate that most of the dust hurled into the atmosphere may return to the
Earth's surface ,ithin as little as si6 months/ given the right conditions.
(cean variabilit"
4ain article< )hermohaline circulation
1 schematic of modern thermohaline circulation
)he ocean is a fundamental part of the climate system. 3hort-term fluctuations %years to a
fe, decades( such as the El @iCo;3outhern 7scillation/ the +acific decadal oscillation/
the @orth 1tlantic oscillation/ and the 1rctic oscillation/ represent climate variability
rather than climate change. 7n longer time scales/ alterations to ocean processes such as
thermohaline circulation play a 8ey role in redistributing heat by carrying out a very slo,
and e6tremely deep movement of ,ater/ and the long-term redistribution of heat in the
,orld's oceans.
*uman influences
4ain article< Global ,arming
1nthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment. *n some cases
the chain of causality of human influence on the climate is direct and unambiguous %for
e6ample/ the effects of irrigation on local humidity(/ ,hilst in other instances it is less
clear. Iarious hypotheses for human-induced climate change have been argued for many
years. +resently the scientific consensus on climate change is that human activity is very
li8ely the cause for the rapid increase in global average temperatures over the past several
decades. $onseDuently/ the debate has largely shifted onto ,ays to reduce further human
impact and to find ,ays to adapt to change that has already occurred.
'h"sical evidence for climatic change
Evidence for climatic change is ta8en from a variety of sources that can be used to
reconstruct past climates. Aeasonably complete global records of surface temperature are
available beginning from the mid-late !"00s. 'or earlier periods/ most of the evidence is
indirectHclimatic changes are inferred from changes in indicators that reflect climate/
such as vegetation/ ice cores/ dendrochronology/ sea level change/ and glacial geology.
*istorical + Archaeological evidence
4ain article< 5istorical impacts of climate change
$limate change in the recent past may be detected by corresponding changes in
settlement and agricultural patterns. 1rchaeological evidence/ oral history and historical
documents can offer insights into past changes in the climate. $limate change effects
have been lin8ed to the collapse of various civilisations.
Glaciers
Iariations in $7
2
/ temperature and dust from the Iosto8 ice core over the last 4.0/000
years
Glaciers are among the most sensitive indicators of climate change/ advancing ,hen
climate cools %for e6ample/ during the period 8no,n as the >ittle *ce 1ge( and retreating
,hen climate ,arms. Glaciers gro, and shrin8/ both contributing to natural variability
and amplifying e6ternally forced changes. 1 ,orld glacier inventory has been compiled
since the !-70s. *nitially based mainly on aerial photographs and maps/ this compilation
has resulted in a detailed inventory of more than !00/000 glaciers covering a total area of
appro6imately 240/000 8m
2
and/ in preliminary estimates/ for the recording of the
remaining ice cover estimated to be around 44./000 8m
2
. )he =orld Glacier 4onitoring
3ervice collects data annually on glacier retreat and glacier mass balance 'rom this data/
glaciers ,orld,ide have been found to be shrin8ing significantly/ ,ith strong glacier
retreats in the !-40s/ stable or gro,ing conditions during the !-20s and !-70s/ and again
retreating from the mid !-"0s to present. 4ass balance data indicate !7 consecutive years
of negative glacier mass balance.
+ercentage of advancing glaciers in the 1lps in the last "0 years
)he most significant climate processes since the middle to late +liocene %appro6imately &
million years ago( are the glacial and interglacial cycles. )he present interglacial period
%the 5olocene( has lasted about !!/700 years. 3haped by orbital variations/ responses
such as the rise and fall of continental ice sheets and significant sea-level changes helped
create the climate. 7ther changes/ including 5einrich events/ Jansgaard;7eschger events
and the Nounger Jryas/ ho,ever/ illustrate ho, glacial variations may also influence
climate ,ithout the forcing effect of orbital changes.
)egetation
1 change in the type/ distribution and coverage of vegetation may occur given a change
in the climate9 this much is obvious. *n any given scenario/ a mild change in climate may
result in increased precipitation and ,armth/ resulting in improved plant gro,th and the
subseDuent seDuestration of airborne $7
2
. >arger/ faster or more radical changes/
ho,ever/ may ,ell result in vegetation stress/ rapid plant loss and desertification in
certain circumstances.
$ce cores
1nalysis of ice in a core drilled from a ice sheet such as the 1ntarctic ice sheet/ can be
used to sho, a lin8 bet,een temperature and global sea level variations. )he air trapped
in bubbles in the ice can also reveal the $7
2
variations of the atmosphere from the distant
past/ ,ell before modern environmental influences. )he study of these ice cores has been
a significant indicator of the changes in $7
2
over many millennia/ and continue to
provide valuable information about the differences bet,een ancient and modern
atmospheric conditions.
!endrochronolog"
Jendochronology is the analysis of tree ring gro,th patterns to determine the age of a
tree. 'rom a climate change vie,point/ ho,ever/ Jendochronology can also indicate the
climatic conditions for a given number of years. =ide and thic8 rings indicate a fertile/
,ell-,atered gro,ing period/ ,hilst thin/ narro, rings indicate a time of lo,er rainfall
and less-than-ideal gro,ing conditions.
'ollen anal"sis
+alynology is the study of contemporary and fossil palynomorphs/ including pollen.
+alynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species/ ,hich vary
under different climate conditions. Jifferent groups of plants have pollen ,ith distinctive
shapes and surface te6tures/ and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a very
resilient material/ they resist decay. $hanges in the type of pollen found in different
sedimentation levels in la8es/ bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities9
,hich are dependent on climate conditions.
$nsects
Aemains of beetles are common in fresh,ater and land sediments. Jifferent species of
beetles tend to be found under different climatic conditions. Given the e6tensive lineage
of beetles ,hose genetic ma8eup has not altered significantly over the millennia/
8no,ledge of the present climatic range of the different species/ and the age of the
sediments in ,hich remains are found/ past climatic conditions may be inferred.
Sea level change
4ain article< $urrent sea level rise
Global sea level change for much of the last century has generally been estimated using
tide gauge measurements collated over long periods of time to give a long-term average.
4ore recently/ altimeter measurements H in combination ,ith accurately determined
satellite orbits H have provided an improved measurement of global sea level change.
Effects of global warming
)his article ma" be too long to comfortabl" read and navigate# +lease consider
splitting content into sub-articles and using this article for a summary of the 8ey points
of the subject. (March 2009)
Graphical description of ris8s and impacts from global ,arming from the )hird
1ssessment Aeport of the *ntergovernmental +anel on $limate $hange. >ater revisions to
this ,or8 suggest significantly increased ris8s.
)he effects of global warming and climate change are of concern both for the
environment and human life. Evidence of observed climate change includes the
instrumental temperature record/ rising sea levels/ and decreased sno, cover in the
@orthern 5emisphere. 1ccording to the *+$$ 'ourth 1ssessment Aeport/ LRmostS of the
observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very
likely due to the observed increase in Rhuman greenhouse gasS concentrationsL. *t is
predicted that future climate changes ,ill include further global ,arming %i.e./ an up,ard
trend in global mean temperature(/ sea level rise/ and a probable increase in the freDuency
of some e6treme ,eather events. Ecosystems are seen as being particularly vulnerable to
climate change. 5uman systems are seen as being variable in their capacity to adapt to
future climate change. )o reduce the ris8 of large changes in future climate/ many
countries have implemented policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse
gases.
'h"sical impacts
Effects on weather
*ncreasing temperature is li8ely to lead to increasing precipitation but the effects on
storms are less clear. E6tratropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient/
,hich is predicted to ,ea8en in the northern hemisphere as the polar region ,arms more
than the rest of the hemisphere.
Extreme weather
4ain article< E6treme ,eather
Global ,arming may be responsible in part for some trends in natural disasters such as
e6treme ,eather.
?ased on future projections of climate change/ the *+$$ report ma8es a number of
predictions. *t is predicted that over most land areas/ the freDuency of ,arm spellsEheat
,aves ,ill very li8ely increase. *t is li8ely that<
*ncreased areas ,ill be affected by drought
)here ,ill be increased intense tropical cyclone activity
)here ,ill be increased incidences of e6treme high sea level %e6cluding tsunamis(
$ncreased evaporation
*ncreasing ,ater vapor at ?oulder/ $olorado.
7ver the course of the 20th century/ evaporation rates have reduced ,orld,ide9 this is
thought by many to be e6plained by global dimming. 1s the climate gro,s ,armer and
the causes of global dimming are reduced/ evaporation ,ill increase due to ,armer
oceans. ?ecause the ,orld is a closed system this ,ill cause heavier rainfall/ ,ith more
erosion. )his erosion/ in turn/ can in vulnerable tropical areas %especially in 1frica( lead
to desertification. 7n the other hand/ in other areas/ increased rainfall lead to gro,th of
forests in dry desert areas.
,ocal climate change
4ain article< Aegional effects of global ,arming
)he first recorded 3outh 1tlantic hurricane/ L$atarinaL/ ,hich hit ?ra0il in 4arch 2004
*n the northern hemisphere/ the southern part of the 1rctic region %home to 4/000/000
people( has e6perienced a temperature rise of ! #$ to & #$ %!." #' to ..4 #'( over the last
.0 years. $anada/ 1las8a and Aussia are e6periencing initial melting of permafrost. )his
may disrupt ecosystems and by increasing bacterial activity in the soil lead to these areas
becoming carbon sources instead of carbon sin8s. 1 study %published in Science( of
changes to eastern 3iberia's permafrost suggests that it is gradually disappearing in the
southern regions/ leading to the loss of nearly !!G of 3iberia's nearly !!/000 la8es since
!-7!. 1t the same time/ ,estern 3iberia is at the initial stage ,here melting permafrost is
creating ne, la8es/ ,hich ,ill eventually start disappearing as in the east. 'urthermore/
permafrost melting ,ill eventually cause methane release from melting permafrost peat
bogs.
Glacier retreat and disappearance
4ain article< Aetreat of glaciers since !".0
1 map of the change in thic8ness of mountain glaciers since !-70. )hinning in orange
and red/ thic8ening in blue.
*n historic times/ glaciers gre, during a cool period from about !..0 to !".0 8no,n as
the >ittle *ce 1ge. 3ubseDuently/ until about !-40/ glaciers around the ,orld retreated as
the climate ,armed. Glacier retreat declined and reversed in many cases from !-.0 to
!-"0 as a slight global cooling occurred. 3ince !-"0/ glacier retreat has become
increasingly rapid and ubiDuitous/ and has threatened the e6istence of many of the
glaciers of the ,orld. )his process has increased mar8edly since !--..
E6cluding the ice caps and ice sheets of the 1rctic and 1ntarctic/ the total surface area of
glaciers ,orld,ide has decreased by .0G since the end of the !-th century. $urrently
glacier retreat rates and mass balance losses have been increasing in the 1ndes/ 1lps/
+yrenees/ 5imalayas/ Aoc8y 4ountains and @orth $ascades.
(ceans
)he role of the oceans in global ,arming is a comple6 one. )he oceans serve as a sin8 for
carbon dio6ide/ ta8ing up much that ,ould other,ise remain in the atmosphere/ but
increased levels of $7
2
have led to ocean acidification. 'urthermore/ as the temperature
of the oceans increases/ they become less able to absorb e6cess $7
2
. Global ,arming is
projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. 7ngoing effects include rising sea
levels due to thermal e6pansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets/ and ,arming of
the ocean surface/ leading to increased temperature stratification. 7ther possible effects
include large-scale changes in ocean circulation.
Sea level rise
4ain article< $urrent sea level rise
3ea level rise during the 5olocene.

3ea level has been rising 0.2 cmEyear/ based on measurements of sea level rise from 2&
long tide gauge records in geologically stable environments.
)he sea level has risen more than !20 metres %&-0 ft( since the >ast Glacial 4a6imum
about 20/000 years ago. )he bul8 of that occurred before 7000 years ago. Global
temperature declined after the 5olocene $limatic 7ptimum/ causing a sea level lo,ering
of 0.7 0.! m %2" &.- in( bet,een 4000 and 2.00 years before present. 'rom &000
years ago to the start of the !-th century/ sea level ,as almost constant/ ,ith only minor
fluctuations. 5o,ever/ the 4edieval =arm +eriod may have caused some sea level rise9
evidence has been found in the +acific 7cean for a rise to perhaps 0.- m %2 ft !! in(
above present level in 700 ?+.
Temperature rise
'rom !-2! to 200&/ the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.!0 #$ from the surface to
a depth of 700 m. )here is variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales/ ,ith
global ocean heat content observations sho,ing high rates of ,arming for !--! to 200&/
but some cooling from 200& to 2007. )he temperature of the 1ntarctic 3outhern 7cean
rose by 0.!7 #$ %0.&! #'( bet,een the !-.0s and the !-"0s/ nearly t,ice the rate for the
,orld's oceans as a ,hole. 1s ,ell as having effects on ecosystems %e.g. by melting sea
ice/ affecting algae that gro, on its underside(/ ,arming reduces the ocean's ability to
absorb $7
2
.
Acidification
4ain article< 7cean acidification
7cean acidification is an effect of rising concentrations of $7
2
in the atmosphere/ and is
not a direct conseDuence of global ,arming. )he oceans soa8 up much of the $7
2

produced by living organisms/ either as dissolved gas/ or in the s8eletons of tiny marine
creatures that fall to the bottom to become chal8 or limestone. 7ceans currently absorb
about one tonne of $7
2
per person per year. *t is estimated that the oceans have absorbed
around half of all $7
2
generated by human activities since !"00 %!!" !- petagrams of
carbon from !"00 to !--4(.
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation
4ain article< 3hutdo,n of thermohaline circulation
)here is some speculation that global ,arming could/ via a shutdo,n or slo,do,n of the
thermohaline circulation/ trigger locali0ed cooling in the @orth 1tlantic and lead to
cooling/ or lesser ,arming/ in that region. )his ,ould affect in particular areas li8e
3candinavia and ?ritain that are ,armed by the @orth 1tlantic drift.
)he chances of this near-term collapse of the circulation are unclear9 there is some
evidence for the short-term stability of the Gulf 3tream and possible ,ea8ening of the
@orth 1tlantic drift. 5o,ever/ the degree of ,ea8ening/ and ,hether it ,ill be sufficient
to shut do,n the circulation/ is under debate. 1s yet/ no cooling has been found in
northern Europe or nearby seas. >enton et al. found that Lsimulations clearly pass a )5$
tipping point this centuryL.
Effects on agriculture
4ain article< $limate change and agriculture
3ee also< 'ood security/ 'ood vs fuel/ and 2007;200" ,orld food price crisis
Food
$limate change is e6pected to have a mi6ed effect on agriculture/ ,ith some regions
benefitting from moderate temperature increases and others being negatively affected.
>o,-latitude areas are at most ris8 of suffering decreased crop yields. 4id- and high-
latitude areas could see increased yields for temperature increases of up to !-&#$ %relative
to the period !-"0---(. 1ccording to the *+$$ report/ above &#$ of ,arming/ global
agricultural production might decline/ but this statement is made ,ith lo, to medium
confidence. 4ost of the agricultural studies assessed in the Aeport do not include changes
in e6treme ,eather events/ changes in the spread of pests and diseases/ or potential
developments that may aid adaptation to climate change.
!istribution of impacts
*n *celand/ rising temperatures have made possible the ,idespread so,ing of barley/
,hich ,as untenable t,enty years ago. 3ome of the ,arming is due to a local %possibly
temporary( effect via ocean currents from the $aribbean/ ,hich has also affected fish
stoc8s.
R!!4S
?y the mid-2!st century/ in 3iberia and else,here in Aussia/ climate change is
e6pected to e6pand the scope for agriculture.
R!!.S
*n East and 3outh-East 1sia/ crop yields
could increase up to 20G/ ,hile in $entral and 3outh 1sia/ yields could decrease by up to
&0G.
R4S
*n drier areas of >atin 1merica/ productivity of some important crops is e6pected
to decline/ ,hile in temperate 0ones/ soybean yields are e6pected to increase.
R4S
*n
@orthern Europe/ climate change is e6pected to initially benefit crop yields.
R4S
3ubsistence
and commercial agriculture are e6pected to be adversely affected by climate change in
small islands.
R!!2S
=ithout further adaptation/ by 20&0/ production from agriculture is
projected to decline over much of southern and eastern 1ustralia/ and parts of eastern
@e, Uealand. *nitial benefits are projected in ,estern and southern areas of @e,
Uealand.
R!!7S
igration
3ome +acific 7cean island nations/ such as )uvalu/ are concerned about the possibility of
an eventual evacuation/ as flood defense may become economically unviable for them.
)uvalu already has an ad hoc agreement ,ith @e, Uealand to allo, phased relocation.
*n the !--0s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees at
around 2. million. %Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of
refugees/ ,hich only includes migrants fleeing persecution.( )he *ntergovernmental
+anel on $limate $hange %*+$$(/ ,hich advises the ,orldVs governments under the
auspices of the B@/ estimated that !.0 million environmental refugees ,ill e6ist in the
year 20.0/ due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding/ shoreline erosion and
agricultural disruption %!.0 million means !..G of 20.0Vs predicted !0 billion ,orld
population(.
-orthwest 'assage
1rctic ice thic8nesses changes from !-.0s to 20.0s simulated in one of G'J>'s A&0
atmosphere-ocean general circulation model e6periments
4elting 1rctic ice may open the @orth,est +assage in summer/ ,hich ,ould cut ./000
nautical miles %-/000 8m( from shipping routes bet,een Europe and 1sia. )his ,ould be
of particular benefit for supertan8ers ,hich are too big to fit through the +anama $anal
and currently have to go around the tip of 3outh 1merica. 1ccording to the $anadian *ce
3ervice/ the amount of ice in $anada's eastern 1rctic 1rchipelago decreased by !.G
bet,een !-2- and 2004.
Ecos"stems
3ee also< E6tinction ris8 from global ,arming
Bnchec8ed global ,arming could affect most terrestrial ecoregions. *ncreasing global
temperature means that ecosystems ,ill change9 some species are being forced out of
their habitats %possibly to e6tinction( because of changing conditions/ ,hile others are
flourishing. 3econdary effects of global ,arming/ such as lessened sno, cover/ rising sea
levels/ and ,eather changes/ may influence not only human activities but also the
ecosystem. 3tudying the association bet,een Earth climate and e6tinctions over the past
.20 million years/ scientists from Bniversity of Nor8 ,rite/ L)he global temperatures
predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a ne, Wmass e6tinction eventV/ ,here over
.0 per cent of animal and plant species ,ould be ,iped out.L
R!&0S
Forests
+ine forests in ?ritish $olumbia have been devastated by a pine beetle infestation/ ,hich
has e6panded unhindered since !--" at least in part due to the lac8 of severe ,inters
since that time9 a fe, days of e6treme cold 8ill most mountain pine beetles and have 8ept
outbrea8s in the past naturally contained. )he infestation/ ,hich %by @ovember 200"( has
8illed about half of the province's lodgepole pines %.. million acres or /.01222 km
2
( is
an order of magnitude larger than any previously recorded outbrea8 and passed via
unusually strong ,inds in 2007 over the continental divide to 1lberta. 1n epidemic also
started/ be it at a lo,er rate/ in !--- in $olorado/ =yoming/ and 4ontana. )he Bnited
3tates forest service predicts that bet,een 20!! and 20!& virtually all . million acres
%20/000 8m
2
( of $oloradoVs lodgepole pine trees over five inches %!27 mm( in diameter
,ill be lost.
1s the northern forests are a carbon sin8/ ,hile dead forests are a major carbon source/
the loss of such large areas of forest has a positive feedbac8 on global ,arming. *n the
,orst years/ the carbon emission due to beetle infestation of forests in ?ritish $olumbia
alone approaches that of an average year of forest fires in all of $anada or five years
,orth of emissions from that country's transportation sources.
3ater scarcit"
3ee also< =ater crisis
3ea level rise is projected to increase salt-,ater intrusion into ground,ater in some
regions/ affecting drin8ing ,ater and agriculture in coastal 0ones. *ncreased evaporation
,ill reduce the effectiveness of reservoirs. *ncreased e6treme ,eather means more ,ater
falls on hardened ground unable to absorb it/ leading to flash floods instead of a
replenishment of soil moisture or ground,ater levels. *n some areas/ shrin8ing glaciers
threaten the ,ater supply. )he continued retreat of glaciers ,ill have a number of
different effects. *n areas that are heavily dependent on ,ater runoff from glaciers that
melt during the ,armer summer months/ a continuation of the current retreat ,ill
eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. 1
reduction in runoff ,ill affect the ability to irrigate crops and ,ill reduce summer stream
flo,s necessary to 8eep dams and reservoirs replenished. )his situation is particularly
acute for irrigation in 3outh 1merica/ ,here numerous artificial la8es are filled almost
e6clusively by glacial melt.
%??$(
$entral 1sian countries have also been historically
dependent on the seasonal glacier melt ,ater for irrigation and drin8ing supplies. *n
@or,ay/ the 1lps/ and the +acific @orth,est of @orth 1merica/ glacier runoff is
important for hydropo,er. 5igher temperatures ,ill also increase the demand for ,ater
for the purposes of cooling and hydration.
Spread of disease
3ee also< )ropical disease
Global ,arming may e6tend the favourable 0ones for vectors conveying infectious
disease such as dengue fever. =est @ile Iirus/ and malaria. *n poorer countries/ this may
simply lead to higher incidence of such diseases. *n richer countries/ ,here such diseases
have been eliminated or 8ept in chec8 by vaccination/ draining s,amps and using
pesticides/ the conseDuences may be felt more in economic than health terms. )he =orld
5ealth 7rganisation %=57( says global ,arming could lead to a major increase in
insect-borne diseases in ?ritain and Europe/ as northern Europe becomes ,armer/ tic8sH
,hich carry encephalitis and lyme diseaseHand sandfliesH,hich carry visceral
leishmaniasisHare li8ely to move in. 5o,ever/ malaria has al,ays been a common
threat in European past/ ,ith the last epidemic occurring in the @etherlands during the
!-.0s. *n the Bnited 3tates/ 4alaria has been endemic in as much as &2 states %including
=ashington/ @orth Ja8ota/ 4ichigan and @e, Nor8( until the !-40s. ?y !-4-/ the
country ,as declared free of malaria as a significant public health problem/ after more
than 4/2.0/000 house JJ) pray applications had been made.