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1 May 1, 2014

Confessions of Ben Bernanke



May 2014



























Stephanie Pomboy
MacroMavens, LLC
spomboy@macromavens.com
tel 212.989.3311 fax 212.989.0022
www.macromavens.com




2 May 1, 2014
Household Net Worth y/y%
vs.
Consumer Spending y/y%
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
































































3 May 1, 2014
Stock Market Cap as % GDP
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
1958 1965 1972 1979 1986 1993 2000 2007 2014
Source= BEA, Federal Reserve (Z.1)
204%
203%
183%































































May 2007 Present
Unemployment Rate 4.4% 6.7%
GDP yy 4.5 4.1
PCE yy 4.9 3.0
Retail Sales yy 4.2 3.8
CapEx yy 8.3 3.8
Household Net Worth $69t $81t



4 May 1, 2014
Existing Home
Sales y/y% vs. Price y/y% (- -)
-35
-28
-21
-14
-7
0
7
14
21
28
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-18
-12
-6
0
6
12
18
Mortgage Applications vs. Total Home Sales (New +Existing)
3.1
3.5
3.9
4.3
4.7
5.1
5.5
5.9
6.3
6.7
7.1
7.5
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
140
180
220
260
300
340
380
420
460
500
Millions
































































5 May 1, 2014
FDIC Insured Institutions
Loan Loss Reserves
55
85
115
145
175
205
235
265
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
$ Billion
-$127b
S&P 500 Companies
Annual Interest Expense
4Q Trailing Sum
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
$ Billion
2007 $488b
-$321b
Source= S&P































































6 May 1, 2014
Domestic Corporate Profits as % GDP
vs. Consumer Spending y/y%
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Source = BEA (NIPA, CorporateProfits adj for IVA & CCA)
Recession
Recession
Recession

































































7 May 1, 2014
Retail Sales ex Food & Energy
Nominal (- -) vs. Real*
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1600
1900
2200
2500
2800
3100
3400
3700
4000
*Retail Sales ex Food & Energy, deflated by CPI
+$48b
+$460b
$ Billion $ Billion













Nominal
Retail Sales
Growth
Units as %
Nominal
Price as %
Nominal
2011 $212b 31% 69%
2012 204 30 70
2013 196 28 72
2014ytd $124b 26% 74%









































8 May 1, 2014
Annual Increase in Household Interest Payments
$ Billions
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014









Annual Cash-Out Volume
2009 $107.5
2010 61.7
2011 53.1
2012 63.5
2013 64.6
2009-2013 $350.4
Source=Freddie Mac, CashOut+ Heloc/2
d
Mtg Consolidation











































9 May 1, 2014
Corporate Profits % GDP (- -)
leads S&P 500 Index
195
390
585
780
975
1170
1365
1560
1755
1950
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
* NIPA Profits (adj for IVA & CCA), leading by 4 quarters

































































10 May 1, 2014
Foreign Purchase of US Treasuries
12 month sum
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
$ Billion
$100b
Source= Dept of Treasury, TIC
































































11 May 1, 2014
Fed Balance Sheet (- -)
vs. Gold
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
3300
3500
3700
3900
4100
4300
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
800
950
1100
1250
1400
1550
1700
1850
2000
2150
2300
$/oz
$ Billion
QE3
















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