DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

AND
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Posc/Uapp 816
INTRODUCTION
I. CLASS 1: AGENDA
A. Course objectives and a pep talk
1. Statistics and substantive theory.
B. Course procedures and guidelines
C. Desktop computing
1. Windows
2. Files
3. Utilities
II. A SUBSTANTIVE PROBLEM:
A. The effects of the welfare state:
1. Recent changes in American welfare law reflect a widely held belief that the
social assistance programs have done more harm than good.
2. This argument, which is really a debate between political conservatives and
liberals, rests partially on statistical analysis.
a. Each side invokes reams of supposedly scientific and objective data
to support its claims.
3. As both citizens and policy analysts we ought to be able to judge the
soundness of the evidence and methods.
B. The welfare debate also illustrates how one can use statistical methods as a tool for
investigating many interesting questions.
III. COURSE PHILOSOPHY:
A. This class rests on several propositions:
1. Each participant has a minimal familiarity with basic statistical concepts.
a. Although we will review statistical inference, this review will go
more smoothly if you have had at least one semester preparation.
b. You can catch up by reading Agresti and Finlay, Statistical
Methods for the Social Sciences, chapters 1 to 5. Alternatively,
you might look at the material on the Public Management
Statistics page of my internet site: www.udel.edu/htr/Statistics815.
c. Lectures from the Fall 1997 section of Public Management
Statistics may be available in the reserve room of Morris Library.
(If not, tough.)
2. Other than this background, I do not assume any knowledge of statistics
and mathematics.
Posc/Uapp 816 Class 1 Notes Page 2
a. We will cover the main topic, regression analysis, from scratch.
3. Nor do I assume any one has any particular computing skills.
a. If you have a personal computer, so much the better.
b. But it is possible to do quite well by using the Universitys
machines, which are located in numerous places throughout the
campus.
- A map is attached. There are many more sites,
however.
4. Although I will attempt to draw substantive examples from all social and
policy sciences, I may end up emphasizing political data. Still, you should
be able to easily transfer the methods to your own disciplines.
B. What you need.
1. An open mind and good attitude
2. Materials:
a. Class notes and access to a personal computer.
b. The Student Version of MI NI TAB for Windows, text and disks.
c. Agresti and Finlay, Statistical Methods for Social Sciences, 3
rd
edition.
d. Sage Papers as listed in the syllabus
e. If possible a statistical calculator
C. Assignments and grades
IV. APPLIED STATISTICS - AN OVERVIEW OF THE COURSE:
A. Refer to the course guideline.
B. We will cover methods for analyzing
1. Two categorical (nominal or ordinal scale) variables.
2. A quantitative dependent variable and one or more independent variables
some of which may be categorical.
3. Time series: data collected at more or less regular intervals such as monthly
employment figures.
4. (If time permits) a categorical dependent variable and one or more
independent variables.
C. The courses stresses mainly the interpretation of statistics and their underlying
assumptions.
1. Less emphasis on computational formulas.
2. Very little attention to proofs or theory.
V. THE INFORMATION NETWORK:
A. First, lets make some distinctions
1. A terminal is a device with a monitor (screen) and keyboard and very little
computing capacity and no user storage space. Its used to connect to or
access a computer such as a mainframe (e.g., Copland).
2. A personal computer is a desktop machine that has central processor,
Posc/Uapp 816 Class 1 Notes Page 3
Figure 1: Information Network
storage areas of various kinds, an operating system, and control of
peripheral devices like printers and CD drives.
3. Terminal emulation: it is possible to program a personal computer so that it
behaves or emulates a terminal.
a. This is, in fact, a quite common practice.
b. Most people at the University of Delaware have personal
computers. When they want to read e-mail they in effect convert
their machines to terminals.
- This is why when using Pine, the Universitys
main e-mail program, they cannot use many of the
Windows features such as cutting and pasting.
- Actually, there are some tricks as well see later.
B. As ever one knows the world depends increasingly on the electronic transmission
of information. This course is no exception. Quite apart from any statistical
calculations you will be performing with a computer, you need to be familiar with
electronic mail (e-mail) and the Internet
C. The information network or virtual reality as the public calls it, consists of sets
of files--documents, batches of numbers, images, computer programs and so
forth--located in various places throughout the world. For our purposes it consists
mostly of a class internet site or web page and data banks located in various
institutions around the globe.
D. How do you reach or access all of this information?
1. Figure 1 presents a simple overview.
2. One simply uses a terminal (that is, a simple video and keyboard) or
personal computer programed to act like a terminal to send e-mail and visit
Posc/Uapp 816 Class 1 Notes Page 4
the class web site (the place where notes, data, announcements, and so
forth are kept).
E. Of course you have many choices or ways to connect to this information
network.
1. A University of Delaware X-terminal.
a. These devices, located in several places throughout the campus,
consist of only a monitor and keyboard. They are not computers
and cannot by themselves store information or run programs. If you
use an X-terminal, any programs (e.g., e-mail) that you start and
any data or information that you collect will be stored on one of the
Universitys mainframe or large computers (e.g., Copland,
Brahms, Strauss). The terminal itself is not connected to any
storage device. Although they are very useful, people rely more and
more on personal computers.
- You can, however, store data or files on the main
system and retrieve them at a later time.
2. A University of Delaware desktop computer.
a. See the attached map.
b. Nearly all of the universitys computers that are located in public
sites are linked to the information network by high speed lines.
c. With a PC one has several choices for computing and accessing the
information network. The PC can be used as if it were a terminal--
that is a monitor and keyboard--that is linked to the mainframes and
from there to the network. Or, it can run its own software to
connect to the network. The latter option allows one to store data
and text directly on the PCs disk drive.
d. Most UD personal computers use Windows 95.
3. Your own computer that is linked via a modem to the Universitys network
or to an Internet Service Providers (ISP) network which in turn connects
to the University.
a. Your computer can act as terminal (see above) or run its own
software that allow you to browse the internet and send and receive
e-mail.
F. Terminals versus personal computers.
1. Everyone will need access to a personal or desktop computer.
2. For some purposes, however, a terminal will suffice.
a. Example: e-mail, browsing the internet.
3. As noted above, for some purposes a personal computer may be used as a
terminal.
a. For example, many people use the Universitys mainframe
electronic mailing system, Pine, to receive and send messages. Pine
runs on a central computer, Copland, and can be accessed from a
PC that is connected via phone lines or cables to the Universitys
Posc/Uapp 816 Class 1 Notes Page 5
network.
b. When doing so, however, the software--usually it will be telnet--
turns the computer into a simple (vanilla) terminal
c. Consequently, I use the term telnet or telnet session to mean the
use of a PC as a simple terminal.
4. Hence, its important to know what each device does.
a. Look at the attached figures.
5. When used as a terminal a PC loses many of the advantages of Windows.
But one can run a Windows program such as MINITAB or WORD at the
same time one has a telnet session open. And its possible to copy
information from the telnet window and paste it in the windows
application.
VI. SOFTWARE:
A. The term software refers of course to the program instructions computers use to
perform various tasks.
1. Operating system (e.g., Windows)
2. Statistical program packages (e.g., MINITAB, SPSS)
3. Utilities (e.g., Notepad, Explorer)
B. Software: public sites contain full versions of MINITAB and SPSS.
1. TheStudent Edition is a fully functional subset of the regular program
that meets our needs.
C. Try software before buying.
1. The Student version of MINITAB runs on Windows 3.1 and 95
2. Installation directions are in book
VII. WINDOWS DEMONSTRATION:
A. Some basics
1. If possible I will demonstrate these ideas with my laptop and/or some
diagrams.
2. Note: there are many different ways of doing the same thing.
3. The desktop
4. Multiple windows
a. Sizing, opening, closing, minimizing (hiding) windows
b. Scrolling
5. Menu and task bars
a. Dialogue boxes
6. Keeping track of windows: the title bar
7. GUIs
8. Mouse, pointer, cursor, insertion point
B. Moving information from one window to another.
1. Highlighting with the mouse
2. Cutting and pasting to the clipboard
Posc/Uapp 816 Class 1 Notes Page 6
Name.extension
3. Notepad
C. Help menus
VIII. KEEPING DATA FOR FUTURE USE:
A. It is important that you know how to save data and other information in proper
formats.
1. I will, for example, give you data for use in one or more assignments. Its
very helpful if you know how to save them instead of retyping the numbers
each time.
B. Folders and files
1. Think of folders as file drawers and files as separate pieces of information
stored inside a drawer.
2. Files always have names with this general form:
a. Example: welfare.txt. Here Name is a descriptive title (e.g., the
file refers to welfare data) and the extension , txt means that the
file contains only characters and numbers. (See below.)
C. Important: file types
1. Data (numbers, characters, images, etc.) are stored in different ways
(formats) by different programs. You need to keep this in mind.
2. The type of format can usually be determined by examining the file name.
3. Types of files and the programs that produce them:
a. Text files contain only numbers, letters, and other common
typewriter characters. The extension is usually .txt
b. Data files: files containing only numbers are sometimes called data
files and have an extension .DAT or .dat.
c. MINITAB worksheets: when using a program such as MINITAB
it is possible to save all of the information you are working on--the
data, variable names, and other characteristics--in a worksheet.
Once stored in this form only MINITAB can interpret the
information. Thus, you cant use another program such as SPSS to
open or read a MINITAB saved worksheet.
- MINITAB worksheets use the extension .MTW or
.mtw.
d. Similarly, SPSS, another common program, stores worksheets in a
special file format that only it understands.
- In fact, many common programs such as
spreadsheets (e.g., Lotus, Excel) all use special
formats to save information. You can usually
determine which program created the file by looking
Posc/Uapp 816 Class 1 Notes Page 7
at the extensions (e.g., .xls, .wk).
D. Public versus private desktop machines.
1. If you are using a public site, be sure to save your data and results on your
own diskette.
2. Before starting make sure that you have a formatted disk.
E. To format a disk with Windows 95
1. See Figures 2 and 3
2. Make certain write tab is not in protected position.
3. Insert a blank (unused) disks into (usually) the A: drive
4. Double click on My Computer (on desktop) or click Start button (at
lower left of monitor) and then Windows Explorer.
5. Double click on 31/2" Floppy
6. Follow the instructions: check full and type a label if you want one.
F. Use Windows explorer to keep track of your files.
IX. NEXT TIME:
A. Windows and the basics of MINITAB and SPSS
Go to Notes page
Go to Statistics page