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Inflationary pressures increase for u.s. Investors, and rates remain low. Does it make sense to expand from U.S. TIPS into global inflation-linked bonds? interest rates on TIPS have declined measurably in recent years.
Inflationary pressures increase for u.s. Investors, and rates remain low. Does it make sense to expand from U.S. TIPS into global inflation-linked bonds? interest rates on TIPS have declined measurably in recent years.
Inflationary pressures increase for u.s. Investors, and rates remain low. Does it make sense to expand from U.S. TIPS into global inflation-linked bonds? interest rates on TIPS have declined measurably in recent years.
May 2012 I L B The PIMCO ETF Investment Solution Series offers insight into the challenges investors face and provides an educational framework for implementing potential solutions using PIMCOs suite of ETF investment strategies. Your Global Investment Authority PIMCO ETFs Paul Kim Vice President Product Manager Ronit Walny Vice President Product Manager A Global Approach to Infation Protection with PIMCO ETFs Issue As inationary pressures increase for U.S. investors, and rates remain low, does it make sense to expand from U.S. TIPS into global ination-linked bonds? What are the key considerations before doing so? n The risk of ination is increasing for U.S investors. Expansionary scal and monetary policies have boosted the money supply, which can lead to ination. Even with high unemployment, a mismatch between needed and available skills in the labor pool can lead to wage pressures, which may spur increasing prices for goods and services. With elevated debt levels in many developed economies, governments have an incentive to use ination to lower debt-servicing costs (one example of nancial repression, a strategy that benets governments and other debtors but tends to penalize savers). Macroeconomic factors also are raising inationary risks. Amid years of slower growth following the 2008 nancial crisis, for example, lower investment in production capacity for commodities such as oil has reduced excess capacity. Less capacity magnies the effects of changing supply/demand dynamics, which are inuenced by global growth and geopolitical risk. Increased growth contribution from many emerging market economies continues to heighten demand for globally sourced goods and services. With so many risks to higher ination long-term, it may be important to have a portion of an overall portfolio dedicated to global ination protection. n U.S. Treasury Ination-Protected Securities (TIPS) are an important tool for ination protection. TIPS offer the most direct investment to help hedge a portfolio from U.S. ination because of their direct linkage to U.S. ination. For that reason and because they also may provide portfolio diversication, they have become a mainstream asset class. However, interest rates on TIPS, or more to the point the real yields (nominal yields with ination expectations removed), have declined measurably in recent years. Currently TIPS offer negative real yields for maturities going out past 15 years. This creates a conundrum for investors buying TIPS with the goal to preserve purchasing power. n In the current low-yield environment, many investors are seeking additional sources of ination-linked return potential beyond exposure to TIPS indexes. PIMCO feels What is an ination-linked bond? Ination-linked bonds are securities designed to help protect investors from ination. Primarily issued by sovereign governments, such as the U.S. and the U.K., they are indexed to ination so that the principal and interest payments rise and fall with the rate of ination. 2 MAY 2012 | ETF INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS SERIES this may be accomplished through active management of a TIPS portfolio, and by looking outside the U.S. to global ination- linked bonds, which allows for more opportunities for active management, the potential for higher real rates (Figure 1), and currency exposure beyond the U.S. dollar. Figure 1: Real yield curve comparison Source: Barclays. Data as of 23 April 2012. Countries are represented by the Barclays Capital Universal Government Ination-Linked Bond Index. Australia -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Maturity (years) R e a l
y i e l d
( % )
Brazil Italy Mexico Chile France U.S. Canada U.K. n Looking beyond U.S. TIPS, the most liquid ination-linked bond market in the world, it is important to understand multiple dimensions of the global ination-linked bond market global economic trends, country credit risk, bond characteristics, Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket construction, and liquidity in each countrys ination-linked bond markets. Education The ination-linked bond market today n Ination-linked bonds represent a distinct asset class in which both principal and interest payments are linked to ination as measured by the ofcial consumer price index of a given country or region. The principal value of an ination-linked bond is adjusted for changes in the relevant consumer price index. A xed rate of interest (real coupon) is paid on the ination- adjusted principal. This adjustment process can allow ination- linked bonds to hedge against ination, particularly when held to maturity. In addition, ination-linked bonds have historically offered portfolio diversication because they generally react differently to ination than stocks and bonds. Global ination- linked bond markets have grown substantially in the past decade both in terms of market size and the number of issuers. The total capitalization of these bonds, including both developed and emerging market sovereign issuers, is approximately $2.5 trillion (Figure 2). Of this, about $2 trillion is issued by developed countries and the remaining $500 billion is issued by emerging market countries. Figure 2: Growth of universal ination-linked bond market Source: Barclays and represented by Barclays Capital Universal Government Bond Index. Data as of 31 March 2012. 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000 2,250 2,500 2,750 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 EM Developed ex. U.S. U.S. n U.S. TIPS represent the largest ination-linked bond market, with approximately $848 billion of outstanding market value, while the U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, Canada and Australia also actively issue ination-linked bonds (Figures 2 and 3). n A growing roster of nations now issue ination-linked bonds, bolstering their position as a mainstream asset class and creating sufcient liquidity to attract international investors. Brazil is the largest among the emerging market issuers of ination-linked bonds, with approximately $278 billion outstanding (Part of EM in Figure 2). Mexico is the second with $52 billion. In addition, other countries such as Chile, South Africa, Israel and Turkey have sizeable and growing ination-linked bond markets. The number of emerging market issuers is expected to increase further with several other countries beginning to issue ination-linked bonds. Figure 3: Global ination-linked bonds outstanding Source: Barclays and represented by Barclays Capital Universal Government Bond Index. Data as of 31 March 2012. Argentina 0.5% Brazil 11.1% Chile 0.6% Colombia 0.1% Israel 1.6% South Korea 0.2% Mexico 2.1% Poland 0.3% South Africa 1.2% Thailand 0.1% Turkey 1.8% Total 19.6% Emerging Markets 19.6% U.S. 33.9% Greece 0.0% U.K. 21.6% France 9.4% Germany 3.1% Italy 5.4% Japan 2.0% Sweden 1.5% Australia 1.0% Canada 2.5% Investment Products Not FDIC Insured | May Lose Value | Not Bank Guaranteed ETF INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS SERIES | MAY 2012 3 n Ination in many countries has historically tended to be positively correlated and is often inuenced by common factors, including the constituents of CPI, the impact of global economic and political events, demographic trends, and global debt dynamics. For example, a disruption and subsequent rise in oil prices should have a similar impact on the energy components of various countries CPI baskets. However, there are relative differences in index weights. For example, in Figure 4, the primary weights of food, energy, and housing vary across countries. The change in such indexes from increases in prices for oil, corn, or wheat is generally more subdued in developed markets than emerging markets. Component weights of food and energy have a larger representation in emerging market baskets, and are passed through quicker. This makes emerging market CPI more responsive to commodity price changes. In addition, unique factors can impact single country or regional ination differently including sharp currency uctuations, regional political instability, natural disasters, or swift policy changes such as increases in a value added tax (VAT). These subtle differences in responsiveness may permit active managers to structure a portfolio based on differing ination dynamics. Figure 4: CPI country construction Source: Haver Analytics. Data as of as of 31 March 2012. Housing (ex Energy) Energy Food and Beverages 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Brazil Canada Chile Germany UK US A PIMCO Solution PIMCO Global Advantage Ination-Linked Bond Strategy Fund (Ticker: ILB) n The PIMCO Global Advantage Ination-Linked Bond Strategy Fund is designed to be an innovative approach to investing in global ination-linked bonds. It is benchmarked to both a GDP-weighted index that spans developed and emerging markets and a market-weighted index. The approach is designed to help investors capitalize on the real return opportunities created by secular shifts taking place in the global economy. n While the funds primary benchmark is the Barclays Universal Government Ination-Linked Bond Index, we believe the funds secondary benchmark, the PIMCO Global Advantage
Ination- Linked Bond Index (GLADI
ILB), more accurately reects the
funds investment strategy. GLADI ILB uses a GDP-based country weighting to align investors ination-linked bond exposures with issuers capacity to meet their debt obligations. This weighting approach tilts investors exposures to those countries that are the leading contributors to global growth, which should provide a more responsive and comprehensive ination hedging solution than traditional global ination- linked bond indexes. Traditional market-cap approaches are based on the arbitrary weighting of issuance patterns for ination-linked bonds around the world. n Other core features distinguish the Global Advantage Ination- Linked Bond Index from more traditional methods. The index is designed to: Provide a continuum in coverage from developed to emerging markets that captures the fuller set of global investment-grade opportunities and avoids a bias in weighting toward developed markets. Evolve with the worlds economic structure, providing broad exposure to a diversied basket of global currencies. Screen for credit and investability, limiting bond inclusion to issuing countries with investment grade credit ratings, and a minimum liquidity threshold at the country and bond level. n ILB is actively managed, using PIMCOs combination of top-down macro forecasts and bottom-up country analysis, as well as a depth of global resources to help navigate the ination markets of countries around the world. We believe PIMCOs disciplined top-down cyclical and secular investment process is ideally suited for asset allocation and global macro forecasts, while our global presence and specialty desks in global ination-linked bonds and emerging markets focus on providing the Global Advantage Ination-Linked Bond Strategy with best trade ideas through bottom-up ination and security analysis. In our efforts to achieve value-added results, we actively apply the following strategies in ILB: Duration management Yield curve positioning Ination specic strategies Country rotation Security selection For more information, please contact your advisor, call 1-888-400-4ETF (1-888-400-4383) or visit www.pimcoetfs.com Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the funds carefully before investing. This and other information are contained in the funds prospectus, which may be obtained by contacting your PIMCO representative. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest. Effective April 4, 2012, PIMCO changed the ticker for the Total Return ETF from TRXT to BOND. No action is required for current investors in the Fund. While BOND is managed utilizing PIMCOs Total Return strategy, it does not use options, futures or swaps. Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) are afforded certain exemptions from the Investment Company Act. The exemptions allow, among other things, for individual shares to trade on the secondary market. Individual shares cannot be directly purchased from or redeemed by the fund. Purchases and redemptions directly with ETFs are only accomplished through creation unit aggregations or baskets of shares. Investment policies, management fees and other information can be found in the individual ETFs prospectus. A word about risk: Past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future results. Investing in the bond market is subject to certain risks including the risk that xed income securities will decline in value because of changes in interest rates; the risk that fund shares could trade at prices other than the net asset value; and the risk that the managers investment decisions might not produce the desired results. Investing in foreign denominated and/or domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency uctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Mortgage and asset-backed securities may be sensitive to changes in interest rates, subject to early repayment risk, and their value may uctuate in response to the markets perception of issuer creditworthiness; while generally supported by some form of government or private guarantee there is no assurance that private guarantors will meet their obligations. High-yield, lower-rated, securities involve greater risk than higher-rated securities; portfolios that invest in them may be subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risk than portfolios that do not. Derivatives may involve certain costs and risks such as liquidity, interest rate, market, credit, management and the risk that a position could not be closed when most advantageous. Investing in derivatives could lose more than the amount invested. Diversication does not ensure against loss. The value of most bond funds and xed income securities are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond funds with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and more volatile than securities with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise. Duration is the measure of a bonds price sensitivity to interest rates and is expressed in years. Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index represents securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment grade xed rate bond market, with index components for government and corporate securities, mortgage pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities. These major sectors are subdivided into more specic indices that are calculated and reported on a regular basis. The Dow Jones U.S. Index is a capitalization-weighted index designed to represent 95% Of the U.S. market. Component companies are adjusted for available oat and must meet objective criteria for inclusion in the index. Reconstitution is quarterly. The Russell 3000 Index is an unmanaged index generally representative of the U.S. market for large domestic stocks as determined by total market capitalization, which represents approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged market index generally considered representative of the stock market as a whole. The index focuses on the Large-Cap segment of the U.S. equities market. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index. This material contains the current opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Statements concerning nancial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will uctuate. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. 2012, PIMCO. PIMCO advised funds are distributed by PIMCO Investments LLC. 12_0325 Newport Beach Headquarters 840 Newport Center Drive Newport Beach, CA 92660 +1 949.720.6000 Amsterdam Hong Kong London Milan Munich New York Singapore Sydney Tokyo Toronto Zurich pimcoetfs.com n ILB benets from PIMCOs breadth of investment experience. Having an experienced active manager is essential to navigating the global markets, particularly where deep expertise in both developed and emerging markets is important. PIMCO was an early leader in analyzing ination-linked bonds, having worked with the U.S. Treasury Department in 1997 to advise on the launch of the TIPS program. PIMCOs ination-linked bond management experience has since extended to global ination-linked bonds including developed and emerging markets. PIMCO manages over $100 billion in dedicated global ination-linked bond portfolios and over $75 billion in dedicated emerging market portfolios. We feel our size and breadth place us in the forefront of information ows, supplementing a robust practice with a timely understanding of the market dynamics so crucial to investing in these markets. n Recognizing that ination is a risk, ILB offers the opportunity to expand globally with an experienced manager to seek enhanced ination-linked bond return potential.