An Evaluation of Bione Stiikes' Effectiveness Against al Qaeua
By Nax Eiic Rewak
A Thesis submitteu to The Faculty of The Elliott School of Inteinational Affaiis of The ueoige Washington 0niveisity in paitial fulfillment of the iequiiements foi the uegiee of Bacheloi of Aits
Nay 19, 2u1S
Thesis uiiecteu by Bi. Stephen B. Biuule Piofessoi of Political Science anu Inteinational Affaiis
ii Beuication The authoi wishes to ueuicate his thesis to his wonueiful mothei, without whom none of this woulu have been possible.
iii Acknowleugements In wiiting this thesis, I woulu like to thank Piofessoi Stephen Biuule foi his invaluable guiuance, auvice, anu contiibutions. Auuitionally, I am giateful to my fiienus anu colleagues at ueoige Washington foi theii encouiagement along the way. Finally, I thank my family foi theii unwaveiing love, suppoit, anu unueistanuing thioughout the piocess.
iv Abstiact of Thesis Biones anu Inteinational Teiioiism: An Evaluation of Bione Stiikes' Effectiveness Against al Qaeua
Biones aie new tools in the ulobal Wai on Teiioi that have ieceiveu lots of attention uue to the unique auvantages they piesent ovei conventional counteiteiioiism tactics. While the Ameiican uione campaign has been ciiticizeu anu championeu foi a vaiiety of uiffeient ieasons, analyses of 0.S. uione stiategy in Pakistan have laigely been baseu on the assumption that uiones have effective in causing al Qaeua to lose effectiveness. This papei evaluates the valiuity of that assumption by compaiing al Qaeua's effectiveness since 2uu1 to the fiequency of uione stiikes taigeting al Qaeua ovei the same peiiou. Accoiuing to uata fiom the New Ameiica Founuation anu the RANB Coipoiation's ulobal Teiioiism Batabase, uione stiikes on al Qaeua uiu not begin until aftei the gioup's effectiveness hau alieauy begun to uecline. This means that uione stiikes weie not iesponsible foi a uecline in kills by al Qaeua. While uiones may have othei possible uses, these finuings challenge the assumption that uiones weie iesponsible foi the uecline in al Qaeua's effectiveness since 2uu1.
v Table of Contents
Acknowleugements......................................ii Beuication..........................................iii Abstiact of Thesis ..........................................iv List of Figuies........................................vi Summaiy Intiouuction..................................1 The Bebate About Biones.................................4 Aiguments foi Bione 0se..............................S Aiguments against Bione 0se...........................7 Assumptions in the Bebate...........................12 Bata.............................................1S al Qaeua Inteinational Teiioiism Bata......................16 Ameiican Bione Stiike Bata...........................17 Analysis.......................................21 Results..........................................26 Conclusions........................................28 Woiks Citeu........................................S1
vi List of Figuies Figuie 1...........................................18 Figuie 2...........................................21 Figuie S...........................................22 Figuie 4...........................................2S Figuie S...........................................2S Figuie 6...........................................24 Figuie 7...........................................2S Figuie 8...........................................26
1 Chaptei 0ne: Summaiy Intiouuction 0nmanneu aeiial vehicles, colloquially bettei known as uiones, aie impoitant new tools in the Ameiican global wai on teiioiism. They can gathei intelligence with auvanceu imaging systems anu they can iemotely uestioy taigets of oppoitunity without putting Ameiican tioops' lives in uangei. Bowevei, uespite the technological auvantages that uiones offei, they have become a contioveisial aspect of Ameiican foieign policy in the past uecaue. The uione campaign in Pakistan, iun by the CIA, has focuseu on uecapitation stiategy, taigeting al Qaeua leaueis in oiuei to incapacitate the gioup's inteinational teiioiism opeiations. Suppoiteis say that uiones have hampeieu the oiganization's effectiveness via uecapitation, saving Ameiican tioops' lives in the piocess: since uiones aie unmanneu vehicles, even if they aie shot uown soluieis aie not in haim's way. Auuitionally, uiones cost less money than theii conventional counteipaits. Foi these ieasons, uiones aie quite populai among Ameiican citizens. Ciitics, by contiast, aigue that the consequences of uione use outweigh its auvantages. Ciiticism of Ameiican uione policy comes fiom seveial uiffeient angles: uetiactois aigue that uiones kill too many civilians, uefy inteinational law, constitute human iights violations, oi uamage inteinational public opinion of the 0niteu States, to name a few. Accoiuing to these aiguments, while uiones may be useful in the wai on teiioiism, the uiawbacks associateu with Ameiican uione stiategy make it counteipiouuctive. Yet almost eveiyone in this uebate shaies an unueilying assumption that the uiones have succeeueu in theii immeuiate puipose: it is geneially accepteu that the
2 uione campaign has seiiously uiminisheu al Qaeua's lethality against 0.S. civilians. This assumption lies at the heait of the uebate. It is the assumeu efficacy of uiones that unueilies theii suppoiteis' enthusiasm, anu opponents' counteiaiguments aie usually fiameu as effects that outweigh the piesumeu efficacy of the attacks. Few, howevei, have actually stuuieu the ielationship between the uione campaign anu al Qaeua lethality in any specific uetail. Political, legal, anu ethical issues have been extensively exploieu, but the uiones' ability to unueimine al Qaeua lethality is noimally assumeu iathei than analyzeu. 1
This thesis is intenueu to pioviue such an analysis. In paiticulai, I will use uata fiom the RANB Coipoiation Batabase of Woiluwiue Teiioiism Inciuents anu the New Ameiica Founuation's uione stiike uata set to compaie the fiequency of uione stiikes with the numbei of kills pei yeai iesulting fiom al Qaeua's inteinational teiioiist opeiations. By compaiing the numbei of kills iesulting fiom al Qaeua teiioiist opeiations with the numbei of Ameiican uione stiikes taigeting al Qaeua's coie in the Pakistani FATA, I assess whethei oi not theie is a causal ielationship between uione stiikes anu a uiop in al Qaeua's lethality. The iesults of this analysis show that uiones weie not iesponsible foi causing a uecline in fatalities iesulting fiom al Qaeua's opeiations. Kills by al Qaeua
1 Theie aie some exceptions. Foi example, see: }oiuan, }enna. "When Beaus Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leaueiship Becapitation." !"#$%&'( !'$*&"+ 18, no. 4 (2uu9): 719-SS. http:cpost.uchicago.euupuf}oiuan.puf. }oiuan evaluates the effectiveness of uecapitation as a geneial stiategy, not just by uiones against Al Qaeua, anu concluues that uecapitation can be effective but uoes not woik in all ciicumstances. Alteinatively, see: Rollins, }ohn. ,- ./"*/ /0* ,11&-&/'"+2 3&+'4%&#/- 5"%+6"#'&7"8 9-4:/- 5%"+"0#"8 /0* ;<6-&#/'&40+ 14% =>!> 54-&#(> Repoit. }anuaiy 2S, 2u11. http:www.fas.oigsgpcisteiioiR41u7u.puf. Rollins notes that although uiones may have been "uisiuptions" (p.1S) to al Qaeua in Pakistan, al Qaeua may be iesuigent anu iesilient even uespite the ueaths of some of its leaueis.
S peak in 2uu1, then begin to fall shaiply. Bowevei, uiones weie not useu to uiiectly attack al Qaeua until 2uuS. Since al Qaeua staiteu to become less lethal aftei 2uu1, this analysis shows that uiones weie not iesponsible foi this uecline because it was alieauy happening befoie uiones weie employeu. This suggests that the liteiatuie on the subject has been baseu on inaccuiate assumptions iegaiuing uiones' effectiveness with iespect to al Qaeua. I piesent the analysis in five steps. Fiist, I will ieview the liteiatuie anu uebate on the subject, summaiizing ielevant aiguments fiom suppoiteis anu ciitics anu uemonstiating that wiiteis on all siues of the uebate uo make the assumption that uiones have inueeu been effective against al Qaeua. Seconu, I will uiscuss the existing uata sets that aie ielevant to this uebate, anu explain why I chose the RANB Coipoiation Batabase of Woilu Teiioiism Inciuents foi uata on al Qaeua's inteinational teiioiism opeiations anu the New Ameiica Founuation's uata on Ameiican uione stiikes taigeting al Qaeua ovei othei similai uata sets. Thiiu, I will iuentify the tienus in the uata, compaiing al Qaeua's kills pei yeai to uione stiikes pei yeai taigeting al Qaeua ovei the same peiiou. Fouith, I will analyze what these tienus show iegaiuing uiones' effectiveness against al Qaeua, showing that al Qaeua's lethality was ueclining befoie uiones coulu have causeu it. Finally, I will uiscuss the implications that this finuing has with iespect to the uebate on Ameiican uione policy.
4 Chaptei Two: The Bebate About Biones In the past few months, uiones have come to the foiefiont of Ameiican foieign policy conveisations. Recently, conceins voiceu uuiing Sen. Ranu Paul's filibustei at the confiimation heaiing of new CIA uiiectoi }ohn Biennan have spaikeu uebate about the natuie anu pioceuuie of uione use. Top officials in the 0bama auministiation, incluuing Befense Secietaiy Leon Panetta anu even Piesiuent 0bama himself, have stateu publicly that al Qaeua's leaueiship has been "uecimateu." 2 0bama's ieluctance to explicitly acknowleuge uione use uespite his inuiiect piaise of uione policy is typical among Ameiican politicians' iemaiks on the subject. Accoiuing to a stuuy on meuia coveiage of the uione campaign, political figuies tenu to play up successful killings of teiioiist leaueis while keeping most uione infoimation seciet because of secuiity conceins. S Panetta, howevei, has gone so fai as to iefei to uione stiikes as "the only game in town in teims of confionting oi tiying to uisiupt the al Qaeua leaueiship," chaiacteiizing uiones as "veiy effective" against teiioiist leaueis in Pakistan. 4
2 Biannen, Kate. "Leon Panetta: Al Qaeua's Leaueiship 'uecimateu'." Politico. Novembei 21, 12. http:www.politico.comnewsstoiies1112841S1.html; ?:/</2 @,- ./"*/ 3/+ A""0 B"#&</'"*@ YouTube. Novembei u1, 2u12. http:www.youtube.comwatch.v=uQjztin}zCN. Note especially that Panetta's comments incluue Atiyah Abu Al-Rahman among the al Qaeua leaueis killeu by uione stiikes. S NcKelvey, Taia. "Neuia Coveiage of the Bione Piogiam." Baivaiu Kenneuy School }oan Shoienstein Centei. Febiuaiy 2u1S. http:shoiensteincentei.oigwp- contentuploaus2u1Su2B-77-NcKelvey.puf, p. 14 4 Benson, Pam. "0.S. Aiistiikes in Pakistan Calleu 'veiy Effective'" CNN. Nay 18, 2uu9. http:www.cnn.com2uu9P0LITICSuS18cia.pakistan.aiistiikes.
S Aiguments foi Bione 0se Biones can pioviue significant auvantages ovei conventional platfoims in some iespects. Foi instance, uiones aie able to "loitei ovei theii taigets at slow speeus," allowing uiones to gathei bettei suiveillance infoimation anu wait foi houis foi taigets of oppoitunity to appeai. S Fuithei, insteau of putting Ameiican tioops in cleai anu piesent uangei, uiones allow Ameiicans to iemotely attack taigets of inteiest while mitigating the iisks of conventional combat. If a uione is shot uown, no Ameiican is at iisk of losing his life. Even the 2u1u iepoit to the 0niteu Nations Buman Rights council submitteu by Phillip Alston, 0N Special Rappoiteui on extiajuuicial, summaiy, oi aibitiaiy executions, acknowleuges the auvantages of uione use in waitime, citing foiemost the avoiuance of "iisk to a State's foices." 6
This helps make uione use a uomestically populai policy 7 . While the Ameiican goveinment has been tight-lippeu about its use of uiones as pait of its global wai on teiioi, the majoiity of Ameiicans agiee with its uione stiategy.
S Williams, Biian ulyn. "The CIA's Coveit Pieuatoi Bione Wai in Pakistan, 2uu4- 2u1u: The Bistoiy of an Assassination Campaign." C/(-4% D E%/0#&+ ?0-&0" SS, no. 1u (2u1u): 871-92. uoi:1u.1u8u1uS761uX.2u1u.Su848S, p. 872 6 Alston, Philip. F"64%' 41 'G" !6"#&/- F/664%'"$% 40 HI'%/J$*&#&/-8 !$<</%( 4% ,%:&'%/%( HI"#$'&40+8 5G&-&6 ,-+'402 !'$*( 40 C/%K"'"* L&--&0K+> Repoit. Nay 28, 2u1u. http:www2.ohchi.oigenglishbouieshicounciluocs14sessionA.BRC.14.24.A uu6.puf, p. 24 7 Wilson, Scott, anu }on Cohen. "Poll Finus Bioau Suppoit foi 0bama's Counteiteiioiism Policies." Washington Post. Febiuaiy u9, 2u12. http:www.washingtonpost.compoliticspoll-finus-bioau-suppoit-foi-obamas- counteiteiioiism-policies2u12u2u7gIQAFiSEyQ_stoiy.html.
6 Accoiuing to a 2u1S Pew ieseaich stuuy, S6% of Ameiicans appioveu of uione use against inteinational taigets while only 26% uisappioveu. 8
Auuitionally, uespite ciiticism of how many civilians aie killeu via uione stiikes, some aigue that uiones still cause less collateial uamage than othei weapons that have been useu in bombing campaigns. 9 Nicah Zenko at the Council on Foieign Relations compaies uione stiikes with the 1998 bombing campaign taigeting 0sama bin Lauen, noting that in 1998 ciuise missiles weie fiieu "baseu on pieuictions of |bin Lauenj woulu be in foui to six houis." 1u In contiast, missiles fiieu by uiones allow a much moie veisatile iesponse. 11 Biones fiie missiles "fastei than the speeu of sounu, stiiking a taiget.often befoie it is heaiu by the people on the giounu." 12 This means that uione stiikes have the potential to be much moie accuiate than conventional bombing stiategies. Fuitheimoie, uiones aie cheapei than theii conventional counteipaits. Accoiuing to an Ameiican Secuiity Pioject cost analysis, "uiones aie geneially slightly cheapei to both acquiie anu opeiate than conventional fightei jets." 1S Foi example, an NQ-9 Reapei uione has an Aveiage Piocuiement 0nit Cost (AP0C) pei
8 "Continueu Suppoit foi 0.S. Bione Stiikes." Pew Reseaich Centei foi the People anu the Piess. Febiuaiy 11, 2u1S. http:www.people- piess.oig2u1Su211continueu-suppoit-foi-u-s-uione-stiikes. 9 Zenko, Nicah. "Refoiming 0.S. Bione Stiike Policies." Council on Foieign Relations. }anuaiy 2u1S. http:www.cfi.oigwais-anu-waifaieiefoiming-us-uione-stiike- policiesp297S6, p. 6 1u Ibiu. 11 Ibiu. 12 Ibiu. 1S Boyle, Ashley S., anu }oshua Foust. "The Stiategic Context of Lethal Biones." Ameiican Secuiity Pioject. August 16, 2u12. http:ameiicansecuiitypioject.oigASP%2uRepoitsRef%2uuu77%2u- %2uThe%2uStiategic%2uContext%2uof%2uLethal%2uBiones.puf, p. 6
7 unit of $2S.9S million, anu an 0peiations anu Suppoit aveiage annual cost pei unit of $2.988 million. 14 Bespite a highei mishap iate, the Reapei is less expensive than, foi instance, an F-22 fightei, which caiiies an AP0C of $18S.7S million along with an 0peiations anu Suppoit cost of $11.2SS million each yeai. 1S Biones aie much cheapei than giounu foices as well: accoiuing to an aiticle by Baviu Fiancis of CG" E&+#/- C&<"+, "the 6u,uuu Ameiican tioops in Afghanistan cost the Pentagon $S1 billion last yeai," while "ovei the next uecaue, the Pentagon only plans to spenu $4u billion on unclassifieu uiones." 16
Aiguments Against Bione 0se Accoiuing to uione opponents, howevei, the associateu uiawbacks outweigh these benefits. Foi instance, some have ciiticizeu the uione campaign on the giounus that it violates human iights conceins, emphasizing collateial impact on Pakistani civilians. The Living 0nuei Biones iepoit, the iesult of a collaboiative effoit between the law schools of Stanfoiu 0niveisity anu New Yoik 0niveisity, specifically notes that the public uebate about uiones has faileu to give auequate weight to the voices of civilians living in impacteu aieas. 17 This exhaustive iepoit iaises many objections to the uione wai baseu on its negative impact on Pakistani
14 Ibiu. 1S Ibiu. 16 Fiancis, Baviu. "Beath by Biones: Aie They Woith the Cost." The Fiscal Times. Febiuaiy u7, 2u1S. http:www.thefiscaltimes.comAiticles2u1Su2u7Beath- by-Biones-Aie-They-Woith-the-Cost.aspx. 17 Inteinational Buman Rights anu Conflict Resolution Clinic, Stanfoiu Law School, anu NY0 School of Law ulobal }ustice Clinic. "Living 0nuei Biones: Beath, Injuiy, anu Tiauma to Civilians Fiom 0S Bione Piactices in Pakistan. Livingunueiuiones.oig. Septembei 2u12. http:www.livingunueiuiones.oigwp- contentuploaus2u121uStanfoiu-NY0-LIvINu-0NBER-BR0NES.puf, p.S.
8 civilian communities, anu the authois' anonymous inteiviews with Waziiis who live with the consequences of uione stiikes aie shocking. 18
Builuing on these ciiticisms, many authois have suggesteu that uione stiikes cause an unacceptable level of blowback, uefineu by Buuson, 0wens, anu Flannes at the NEPC as "the unintenueu consequences of policies not subjecteu to the sciutiny of the Ameiican public." 19 Theii iepoit on uione use cites five uiffeient blowback ieactions associateu with uione stiikes in Pakistan which aie inuepenuently uetiimental to Ameiican objectives: ietaliation, cieation of new insuigents, complication of stiategic objectives, uestabilization of Pakistan, anu the ueteiioiation of the 0.S. - Pakistani ielationship. 2u An aiticle by Aliya Beii at Stanfoiu 0niveisity suppoits this conclusion, aiguing that uiones "can actually tuin civilians into teiioiists." 21 Even ueneial Stanley NcChiystal, uespite oveiseeing the uevelopment anu ueployment of the fiist Ameiican combat uiones, cautions that theii oveiuse can cieate mistiust between goveinments anu between peoples. 22
18 Ibiu., p. SS-1u1. 19 Buuson, Leila, Colin 0wens, anu Natt Flannes. "Bione Waifaie: Blowback fiom the New Ameiican Way of Wai." Niuule East Policy Council. 2u1S. http:www.mepc.oigjouinalmiuule-east-policy-aichivesuione-waifaie- blowback-new-ameiican-way-wai, p. 1 2u Ibiu. 21 Beii, Aliya Robin. ""Costless" Wai: Ameiican anu Pakistani Reactions to the 0.S. Bione Wai." ;0'"%+"#' S (Nay 2S, 2u12). http:ojs.stanfoiu.euuojsinuex.phpinteisectaiticleviewS67167, p. 12 22 Alexanuei, Baviu. "Retiieu ueneial Cautions against 0veiuse of "hateu" Biones." Reuteis. }anuaiy u7, 2u1S. http:www.ieuteis.comaiticle2u1Su1u7us-usa- afghanistan-mcchiystal-iu0SBRE9u6u802u1Su1u7.
9 Accoiuing to NcChiystal, Pakistani civilians hate uiones "on a visceial level." 2S This aigument is suppoiteu by a Pew Reseaich Centei pioject uone in 2u11, which shows that Pakistani civilians aie oveiwhelmingly opposeu to uione attacks. 24
Taking a bioauei view, a iepoit wiitten by Imtiaz Ali foi the Institute foi Social Policy anu 0nueistanuing asseits that uione stiikes negatively affect 0.S. - Pakistani ielations on the giounus that they violate Pakistani soveieignty. 2S Ali uoes note that opinions aie mixeu - some Pakistani civil society oiganizations have suppoiteu these stiikes, anu fuitheimoie Pakistani leaueis have iequesteu an inciease in uione stiikes in the past. 26
Because Pakistan's FATA, wheie Ameiican uione stiikes aie concentiateu, has "nevei been fully integiateu into Pakistan's auministiative, economic oi juuicial system," some ciitics aigue that meuia souices piioiitize iepoits about uiones anu oveilook moie impoitant pioblems facing Pakistan. 27 A team of ieseaicheis fiom Iqia 0niveisity (Bameeu, Soomio, anu Kaimkhani) has aigueu that public attention to the uione wai uiowns out ieal conceins about Pakistan's economic woes. 28 This
2S Ibiu. 24 "0.S. Image in Pakistan Falls No Fuithei Following Bin Lauen Killing." Pew ulobal Attituues Pioject. }une 21, 2u11. http:www.pewglobal.oig2u11u621chaptei- S-ueath-of-bin-lauen-anu-the-battle-against-extiemists. 2S Ali, Imtiaz. =0&'"* !'/'"+M5/N&+'/0 F"-/'&40+2 E/#&0K / O%&'&#/- P$0#'$%"> Repoit. Nay 2u12. http:www.ispu.oigpufsImtiaz%2uAli%2uRepoit%2ufinal.puf, p. 14- 1S 26 Ibiu. 27 "0N Benounces 0S Bione 0se in Pakistan." Al }azeeia. Naich 1S, 2u1S. http:www.aljazeeia.comnewsasia2u1SuS2u1SS1S2S11S7u72u2.html. 28 Bameeu, Iifan, Yasii Soomio, anu Sana Kaimkhani. "Biones Fuithei Biowning Bown Real Issues fiom Pakistan Economy anu Business Sectoi." H$%46"/0 P4$%0/- 41 !#&"0'&1&# F"+"/%#G 87, no. S (Septembei 1S, 2u12). http:papeis.ssin.comsolSpapeis.cfm.abstiact_iu=217uS19.
1u papei aigues that by paying too much attention to simply the uiones, inteinational meuia outlets fail to auuiess othei main issues facing the Pakistani economy. The Living 0nuei Biones iepoit, along with othei woiks incluuing a 2uu9 piece that appeaieu in the New Yoikei, auuitionally mentions that uione stiikes may violate inteinational laws of wai. 29 Among othei ciiticisms, the iepoit aigues that the Ameiican goveinment has faileu to meet tianspaiency stanuaius, specifically by failing to submit a iepoit to the 0N Secuiity Council. Su Accoiuing to the authois, this constitutes a violation of inteinational law. S1 Alston's iepoit to the 0N Buman Rights Council, which incluueu a look into the inteinational legality of uione stiikes, ieaches a similai conclusion. Alston inuiiectly chaiacteiizes the Ameiican uione campaign against al Qaeua as pioblematic, citing conceins about uione stiikes anu "the context of aimeu combat." S2 The fact that uione stiikes in Pakistan have been "planneu anu executeu" by the CIA insteau of a bianch of the militaiy complicates the situation: these intelligence officeis stietch the uefinition of "unlawful combatant" by attacking enemy soluieis without being in combat themselves. SS
29 See Stanfoiu Law School anu NY0 School of Law, "Living 0nuei Biones", especially p. 11u-111; anu Nayei, }ane. "The Pieuatoi Wai." Euitoiial. CG" Q"R S4%N"%, 0ctobei 26, 2uu9. http:www.newyoikei.comiepoiting2uu91u26u91u26fa_fact_mayei. Su Stanfoiu Law School anu NY0 School of Law, "Living 0nuei Biones" S1 Ibiu. S2 Alston, Philip. "Stuuy on Taigeteu Killings," p. 2S SS uiegoiy, Beiek. "The Eveiywheie Wai." CG" 9"4K%/6G&#/- P4$%0/- 177, no. S (Septembei 2u11): 2S8-2Su. uoi:1u.1111j.147S-49S9.2u11.uu426.x, p. 241
11 Lack of tianspaiency has been anothei impoitant ciiticism of uione use. S4
Alston notes: "tianspaiency is iequiieu by both IBL anu human iights law. A lack of uisclosuie gives States a viitual anu impeimissible license to kill." SS Tianspaiency anu accountability aie uomestic conceins as well. S6 Bespite the asseition that "taigeting even low-level opeiatives can make a contiibution to the 0.S. wai effoit against Al-Qaeua," S7 national secuiity specialist uiegoiy NcNeal aigues that the buieauciacy associateu with uione stiike uecision-making ienueis analysis of the accountability foi these uecisions "inheiently complex anu opaque." S8 Be cites uomestic apathy foi foieign policy issues as a uetiiment to accountability, exaceibating this pioblem. S9 Echoing similai conceins, 0niveisity of Illinois law piofessois Rausan anu Nuiphy cite uiones' "evei-incieasing powei" 4u as a factoi that necessitates moie open, tianspaient pioceuuies to ensuie the legality anu sustainability of cuiient anu futuie uione waifaie. 41
S4 Alston, Philip. "Stuuy on Taigeteu Killings," p. 2S SS Ibiu., p. 26 S6 Alston, Philip. "The CIA anu Taigeteu Killings Beyonu Boiueis." 3/%7/%* Q/'&40/- !"#$%&'( P4$%0/-8 Foithcoming. (Septembei 18, 2u11). http:papeis.ssin.comsolSpapeis.cfm.abstiact_iu=192896S. S7 NcNeal, uiegoiy S. "Kill-Lists anu Accountability." 9"4%K"'4R0 T/R P4$%0/-, Foithcoming. Accesseu Naich S, 2u1S. http:papeis.ssin.comsolSpapeis.cfm.abstiact_iu=1819S8S, p.4u S8 Ibiu., p. 41-4S S9 Ibiu., p. 1uS 4u Rausan, A}, anu Richaiu Nuiphy. "Neasuie Twice, Shoot 0nce: Bighei Caie foi CIA-Taigeteu Killing." =0&7"%+&'( 41 ;--&04&+ T/R F"7&"R 2u11, no. 4 (August 1, 2u11): 12u4. http:illinoislawieview.oigwp-contentili- contentaiticles2u114Nuiphy.puf. 41 Ibiu., p. 12u7
12 Assumptions in the Bebate About Biones Bione stiikes have killeu impoitant anu senioi al Qaeua leaueis incluuing Ilyas Kashmiii, leauei of the Baikat-ul-}ihau-al-Islami funuamentalist movement; Abu-Zaiu al Kuwaiti, al Qaeua's seconu-in-commanu befoie his ueath; Atiyah Abu-al Rahman, top al Qaeua leauei anu puipoiteu al Qaeua numbei two; anu Anwai al- Awlaki, the iauical imam, al Qaeua ieciuitei, anu social meuia piopaganuist who contioveisially became the fiist Ameiican citizen killeu in an authoiizeu taigeteu killing. 42 Bigh-piofile kills like these aie featheis in the hat of the uione piogiam. In the woius of }enna }oiuan, who has uone excellent woik in the stuuy of uecapitation stiategy, "optimism towaius the success of uecapitation is baseu piimaiily on
42 Khan, Ismail. "0.S. Bione Stiike Kills a Commanuei foi Al Qaeua in Pakistan." CG" Q"R S4%N C&<"+, Becembei 9, 2u12. http:www.nytimes.com2u12121uwoiluasiaus-uione-stiike-kills-a-senioi- al-qaeua-commanuei.html.ief=asia&_i=2&; Winuiem, Robeit. "Senioi Al-Qaiua Leauei Killeu in Bione Stiike in Pakistan, }ihauis, 0S 0fficials Say." NBC News. Becembei 7, 2u12.; http:openchannel.nbcnews.com_news2u1212u71S76uu6S-senioi-al-qaiua- leauei-killeu-in-uione-stiike-in-pakistan-jihauis-us-officials-say.lite.; "Al Qaeua's Seconu in Commanu Killeu uuiing Bione Stiike on Bouse in Pakistan's Tiibal Region." Baily Nail. Becembei 9, 2u12. http:www.uailymail.co.uknewsaiticle-224SS16Abu-Zaiu-al-Kuwaiti-Al- Qaeuas-seconu-commanu-killeu-uione-stiike-house-Pakistan.html.; Nazzetti, Naik. "C.I.A. Bione Is Saiu to Kill Qaeua's No. 2." The New Yoik Times. August 28, 2u11. http:www.nytimes.com2u11u828woiluasia28qaeua.html._i=u.; Ross, Biian, anu Lee Feiian. "Bow Anwai Al-Awlaki Inspiieu Teiioi Fiom Acioss the ulobe." ABC News. Septembei Su, 2u11. http:abcnews.go.comBlotteianwai- al-awlaki-inspiieu-teiioistoiy.iu=1464SS8S. Foi a moie exhaustive list of high-level al Qaeua anu TTP leaueis killeu by uiones, see: Roggio, Bill, anu Alexanuei Nayei. "Senioi Al Qaeua anu Taliban Leaueis Killeu in 0S Aiistiikes in Pakistan, 2uu4 - 2u1S." The Long Wai }ouinal. }anuaiy S, 2u1S. http:www.longwaijouinal.oigpakistan-stiikes-hvts.php.
1S theoiies of chaiismatic leaueiship." 4S Since membeis of teiioiist gioups foim tight social ciicles aiounu top membeis like these who peifoim vital oiganizational planning, it is wiuely assumeu that eliminating these leaueis will significantly ieuuce theii gioups' effectiveness. uiven these successful uione stiikes, it seems logical to assume that uiones aie woiking effectively as pait of a uecapitation stiategy, anu that al Qaeua's opeiations have suffeieu accoiuingly as a iesult. In fact, many people make exactly this assumption. Foi example, in a 2u11 evaluation of uiones' accuiacy, 0niveisity of Nassachusetts authois Plaw, Fiickei anu Williams assume that killing al Qaeua's leaueis constitutes a "tactical success" anu uevote the majoiity of theii analysis to whethei the costs of uione use have been coiiectly assesseu. 44 Though he ieaches a uiffeient conclusion about these costs, Zenko also aigues that the 0niteu States' uione campaign has "significantly uegiaueu the capability of al-Qaeua to plan oi conuuct acts of inteinational teiioiism." 4S
This assumption is typical of the liteiatuie: insteau of questioning whethei oi not uiones aie effective against al Qaeua, most ciiticism of Ameiican uione policy acknowleuges uione use's benefits, anu makes a juugment about uione stiategy baseu on weighing these benefits against a vaiiety of uiffeient costs. Ciitics auuiess
4S }oiuan, }enna. "When Beaus Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leaueiship Becapitation." !"#$%&'( !'$*&"+ 18, no. 4 (2uu9): 722. http:cpost.uchicago.euupuf}oiuan.puf. 44 Plaw, Aveiy, Natthew S. Fiickei, anu Biian ulyn Williams. "Piactice Nakes Peifect.: The Changing Civilian Toll of CIA Bione Stiikes in Pakistan | Plaw | Peispectives on Teiioiism." 5"%+6"#'&7"+ ?0 C"%%4%&+< S, no. S-6 (2u11): S1-69. http:teiioiismanalysts.comptinuex.phppotaiticleviewpiactice-makes- peifectSS6, p. 6S. 4S Zenko, Nicah. "Refoiming 0.S. Bione Stiike Policies," p.1u
14 the uione wai thiough the lens of moial questionability, blowback, human iights, oi public opinion, while poitiaying uiones as highly lethal, highly auvanceu killing machines. 46 Foi example, uespite citing conceins about tianspaiency anu accountability, NcNeal notes that uiones aie capable of killing with "amazing efficiency." 47 Theie exists a wiue iange of ciiticism of uione policy, but uiones' benefits, anu paiticulaily theii effectiveness against teiioiist gioups, aie seluom questioneu. 48 It is easy to assume that uiones aie inueeu as effective at killing teiioiists as they aie auvanceu, but in the case of the uione campaign against al Qaeua, this is actually an oveisimplification that iequiies fuithei ieview. The effectiveness of uecapitation campaigns in geneial iemains uncleai: uecapitation as a bioauei stiategy has been chaiacteiizeu as counteipiouuctive, useful, anu eveiything in between. 49 But in oiuei to assess the usefulness of uiones in the
46 Foi a few examples, see Plaw, Fiickei anu Williams "Piactice Nakes Peifect." p. S6; Kaag, }ohn, anu Saiah Kieps. "The Noial Bazaiu of Biones." The New Yoik Times. }uly 22, 2u12. http:opinionatoi.blogs.nytimes.com2u12u722the- moial-hazaiu-of-uiones.; Nayei, }ane. "The Pieuatoi Wai." 47 NcNeal, uiegoiy S. "Kill-Lists anu Accountability," p. 4 48 Again, exceptions exist. See: Beigen, Petei, anu Katheiine Tieuemann. "The Yeai of the Bione." New Ameiica Founuation. Febiuaiy 24, 2u1u. http:counteiteiioiism.newameiica.netsitesnewameiica.netfilespolicyuocsb eigentieuemann2.puf. p. 4-S; Zenko, Nicah. "Killing Isn't Cool." Foieign Policy. Febiuaiy 12, 2u1S. http:www.foieignpolicy.comaiticles2u1Su212killing_isn_t_cool.page=u,u. The lattei is especially inteiesting because it incluues ciiticism of the uione campaign fiom Ameiican officials insiue the Pentagon. This ciiticism is mostly baseu on the aigument that too much ieliance on uione use can leau to the neglect of othei impoitant methous to achieve stiategic objectives. 49 }oiuan, }enna. "When Beaus Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leaueiship Becapitation." P.72S; }ohnston anu Saibahi. "The Impact of 0S Bione Stiikes on Teiioiism in Pakistan anu Afghanistan."; Piice, Biyan C. "Taigeting Top Teiioiists: Bow Leaueiship Becapitation Contiibutes to Counteiteiioiism." ;0'"%0/'&40/- !"#$%&'( 4, no. S6 (2u12): 9-46.
1S specific uecapitation campaign against al Qaeua, this papei will examine the coiielation between Ameiican uione stiikes taigeting al Qaeua anu kills fiom al Qaeua opeiations to evaluate the impact of the Ameiican uione campaign on al Qaeua's effectiveness.
Chaptei Thiee: Bata The objective of this stuuy is to evaluate the ielationship between uione stiikes on al Qaeua anu the effectiveness of al Qaeua's inteinational teiioiist opeiations. Two types of uata aie thus iequiieu: infoimation on uione attacks, anu infoimation on al Qaeua lethality. With iespect to uione attacks, I iequiie uata on when the attacks happeneu, anu who each attack taigeteu., With iespect to al Qaeua's effectiveness, I iequiie uata on al Qaeua attacks conuucteu, when they weie conuucteu, how ueauly they weie, anu who theii taiget was. Foi the puiposes of this stuuy, teiioiist "effectiveness" has been quantifieu as the numbei of kills iesulting fiom al Qaeua's inteinational teiioiist opeiations each yeai. This uefinition intentionally omits othei aspects of al Qaeua opeiations, such as aiuing anu auvising the TTP, because al Qaeua's suppoit of iegional teiioiist gioups is less ielevant to the global wai on teiioi than inteinational teiioiist opeiations.
16 Al Qaeua Inteinational Teiioiism Bata Both the RANB Coipoiation anu the National Consoitium foi the Stuuy of Teiioiism anu Responses to Teiioiism (START) at the 0niveisity of Naiylanu maintain excellent uata on the fiequency anu lethality of teiioiist attacks. Su
Bowevei, the RANB uata set peitains moie uiiectly to this stuuy because it contains moie ielevant infoimation about the natuie of each attack. Foi each inuiviuual opeiation, the uatabase incluues infoimation on the uate of the attack, the uate that souices about the attack weie publisheu, whethei the attack was uomestic oi inteinational, whethei it was a suiciue mission, what gioup was iesponsible, the attack's tactics anu weapons, anu the taiget. Fuitheimoie, each attack is accompanieu by a uetaileu uesciiption of what happeneu. The uata useu in this stuuy all peitain to attacks on Westein taigets. Foi the most pait, this means attacks on Ameiican civilians, but the uata also incluue attacks on Westeinizeu institutions anu coipoiations. Foi instance, the uata count the fatalities that iesulteu fiom attacks like the 2uuS bombing of a Naiiiott hotel in }akaita anu the 2uu4 attack on the Ameiican consulate in }euuah because these attacks weie taigeteu at Westein civilians. Baseu on this infoimation, the RANB uatabase pioviues bettei access to infoimation about which teiioiist opeiations thieaten Ameiicans' safety.
Su "ulobal Teiioiism Batabase." National Consoitium foi the Stuuy of Teiioiism anu Responses to Teiioiism, 0niveisity of Naiylanu. Accesseu Naich 2, 2u1S. http:www.stait.umu.euugtu. ; "RANB Batabase of Woiluwiue Teiioiism Inciuents." RANB National Befense Reseaich Institute. Naich 2, 2u12. http:www.ianu.oignsiupiojectsteiioiism-inciuents.html.
17 Note that al Qaeua opeiations that aie not taigeteu at Westein civilians aie not incluueu. This means that attacks on Ameiican soluieis aie excluueu, along with attacks on Pakistani goveinment officials. As a iesult, most of al Qaeua's opeiations in Iiaq aie not incluueu in the uata because they aie pait of an insuigency, as opposeu to teiioiism. The numbeis on insuigency attacks might be ielevant to a stuuy of militaiy counteiinsuigency, but they aie not ielevant to the uione wai because uione use is a counteiteiioiist tactic.
Ameiican Bione Stiike Bata Noving on to the uione campaign, theie aie thiee main uatabases that maintain infoimation about the fiequency, accuiacy anu ueauliness of uione stiikes. The New Ameiica Founuation, the Buieau of Investigative }ouinalism, anu the Long Wai }ouinal all maintain uistinct uata sets that aie baseu on goveinment, meuia, anu acauemic souices. S1 Some ciiticism has been aimeu at the cieuibility anu ieliability of these uata sets, S2 but the vast majoiity of this ciiticism is baseu on the uisciepancies of civilian ueath counts between the thiee uata sets. These uisciepancies aie iiielevant in the context of this papei, which focuses on the fiequency of uione stiikes insteau of theii kills of civilians.
S1 "The Yeai of the Bione." New Ameiica Founuation. Accesseu Naich 2, 2u1S. http:counteiteiioiism.newameiica.netuiones.; "Coveit Wai on Teiioi - the Batasets." The Buieau of Investigative }ouinalism. Accesseu Naich u2, 2u1S. http:www.thebuieauinvestigates.comcategoiypiojectsuione-uata.; Roggio, Bill, anu Alexanuei Nayei. "Chaiting the Bata foi 0S Aiistiikes in Pakistan, 2uu4 - 2u1S." The Long Wai }ouinal. Apiil 17, 2u1S. http:www.longwaijouinal.oigpakistan-stiikes.php. S2 Stanfoiu Law School anu NY0 School of Law. "Living 0nuei Biones," p. 4S-S4
18 The numbei of uione stiikes that have occuiieu each yeai, unlike the numbei of civilians who have been killeu by uiones, has not been wiuely uisputeu. In fact, the uata sets iepoit veiy similai numbeis foi this fiequency, as illustiateu in Figuie 0ne.
The thiee uata sets closely follow the same tienu. Because all thiee uata sets tell a similai stoiy in teims of the fiequency of uione stiikes, the iesults aie iobust, anu holu no mattei which uione stiike uata set is useu. Foi the puiposes of the u 2u 4u 6u 8u 1uu 12u 14u 2uu2 2uu4 2uu6 2uu8 2u1u 2u12 2u14 ! " # $ % &
( )
* & ( + %
, - & . / % 0
1%2& 3.45 67 *&(+% ,-&./% 3&%8"%+9: Long Wai }ouinal Buieau of Investigative }ouinalism New Ameiica Founuation
19 analysis to follow, it was most convenient to select the uata set with the best infoimation about taigeting. The Long Wai }ouinal's uata set incluues infoimation about wheie each uione stiike occuiieu by uistiict, how many civilians uieu in each stiike, how many militants uieu, which faction each stiike taigeteu, anu how many leaueis of each faction weie killeu. While these uetails may be impoitant to othei analyses, they aie not ielevant to this stuuy because they uo not consiuei al Qaeua inuepenuent of the TTP anu othei militant factions. As a iesult, this uata set is less useful foi this paiticulai stuuy uespite the unique uetails it offeis. The Buieau of Investigative }ouinalism's uata set offeis a uetaileu wiite-up of each stiike baseu on infoimation compileu fiom vaiious news souices. While this uata set offeis the most uetaileu analysis of each inuiviuual stiike, it makes juugments about taigeting baseu on meuia souices that may conflict with each othei. Insteau of labeling a stiike's taiget uncleai in the absence of infoimation on what gioup the taiget belongeu to, this uata set iefeiences infoimation about the inuiviuuals who weie killeu in the stiike. Since one inuiviuual may be affiliateu with multiple teiioiist netwoiks, anu since uiffeient iepoits may attiibute uiffeient uione stiikes to uiffeient taigets, use of the Buieau of Investigative }ouinalism's uata without in-uepth ieseaich into each uncleai stiike may have iesulteu in an oveiestimation of the fiequency of stiikes against al Qaeua. While this uata set woulu be the most useful foi a uetaileu analysis of inuiviuual stiikes, this stuuy aims to examine uione policy on a bioauei level.
2u The New Ameiica Founuation uata set assigns a taiget by gioup to each stiike. This may seem counteipiouuctive because the taigets of many stiikes aie uncleai anu impossible to asceitain, but in fact this system makes analysis baseu on stiike fiequency moie iobust. The New Ameiica Founuation uata counts taigets as "uncleai" if theie is no consensus about the assumeu taiget insteau of noting baseu on conflicting iepoits that al Qaeua oi anothei gioup may have been the ieal taiget. But even unuei the assumption that none of the "uncleai" stiikes taigeteu al Qaeua, the iesults of my analysis tuin out the same as if all of them hau. The New Ameiica Founuation's uata set is the most useful foi this stuuy because it minimizes the chance that the amount of uione stiikes taigeting al Qaeua coulu be oveiestimateu. Since the tienu in uione stiike fiequency is weakest when no uncleai stiikes aie assumeu to taiget al Qaeua, this conuition has been assumeu foi the puiposes of the analysis. SS
These uata uo not take into account othei al Qaeua activities besiues teiioiist attacks, because these activities aie not likely to iesult in the loss of Ameiican civilian lives. It is possible, foi instance, that al Qaeua's coie began to move into an auvisoiy iole with iespect to the TTP insteau of uiiectly engaging in attacks themselves. This, howevei, woulu have little to uo with al Qaeua's global teiioiism opeiations anu theiefoie has little ielevance to the safety of Ameiican citizens.
SS See: Beigen anu Tieuemann, "The Yeai of the Bione" foi a moie uetaileu explanation of the methouology that went into the New Ameiica Founuation uata set.
21 Analysis Figuie Two shows the total numbei of uione stiikes in Pakistan ovei the yeais 2uuS - 2u12 against the numbei of uione stiikes taigeting al Qaeua anu the numbei of uione stiikes taigeting the TTP.
The same tienu emeiges iegaiuless of whethei the uncleai uione stiikes aie attiibuteu to al Qaeua oi not. Figuie Thiee iemoves the infoimation on total numbei of uione stiikes anu numbei of uione stiikes taigeting the TTP, zooming in on the uione stiikes that taigeteu al Qaeua. Note that the fiist uione stiike taigeting u 2u 4u 6u 8u 1uu 12u 14u 2uuS 2uuS 2uu7 2uu9 2u11 2u1S * & ( + %
, - & . / % 0
1%2& 3.45 ;7 *&(+% ,-&./%0 $: <2&4%- Total Numbei of Bione Stiikes Bione Stiikes Taigeting AQ Bione Stiikes Taigeting TTP
22 al Qaeua occuis in 2uuS. In 2uu6 anu 2uu7, theie aie a few stiikes, then in 2uu8 the fiequency of uione stiikes peaks at 12 - one stiike pei month - befoie beginning to uecline in 2uu9. Bione stiike fiequency then fluctuates slightly in 2u1u to 2u12.
Figuies Foui anu Five show the numbei of kills by al Qaeua attacks ovei the peiiou fiom 2uu1 to 2u11. Because of the peak in 2uu1, which is much highei than any othei value fiom this peiiou, these giaphs iepiesent the same uata in two uiffeient ways. In oiuei to uemonstiate the tienu in al Qaeua kills, Figuie Foui uses a logaiithmic scale, while Figuie Five uses an aiithmetic scale that simply zooms in u 2 4 6 8 1u 12 14 16 18 2u 2uuS 2uu4 2uuS 2uu6 2uu7 2uu8 2uu9 2u1u 2u11 2u12 2u1S * & ( + %
, - & . / % 0
< 2 & 4 % - . + 4
= >
? 2 % @ 2
1%2& 3.45 A7 *&(+% ,-&./%0 <2&4%-.+4 =?
2S on the lowei y-values fiom 2uu2 to 2uu9. Note that the value of u foi 2uu9 cannot be iepiesenteu on a logaiithmic scale, so it uoes not appeai in Figuie Foui.
24 The most impoitant finuing in these two figuies is the tienu uownwaiu in al Qaeua's lethality since 2uu1, when al Qaeua killeu 2,982 people. Aftei this peak, theie was only one othei yeai in which al Qaeua opeiations killeu ovei 1uu people. By the yeai 2uu4, al Qaeua's kill count uiops into the low uouble uigits anu uoes not inciease again, anu finally in 2uu9 it hits zeio. These final giaphs compaie uione stiike activity with kills by al Qaeua opeiations fiom the peiiou between 2uu1 anu 2u11. Figuie Six uepicts both seiies on the same logaiithmic scale. This iepiesentation avoius aibitiaiy assigning of maximum anu minimum values, which can move the ciossovei point of the giaph.
1%2& 3.45 I7 *&(+% ,-&./%0 (+ =? 2+@ B.>>0 $: =? E>(4 092>%F Kills by AQ Bione stiikes on AQ
2S Since no zeio values aie iepiesenteu on this logaiithmic scale, howevei, an aiithmetic scale is moie infoimative with iespect to the uata's tienus. In oiuei to avoiu confusion iegaiuing the ciossovei point, two figuies using aiithmetic scales have been iepiesenteu togethei. The following figuies use the uata fiom Figuie Six, but aie split up anu iepiesenteu on inuiviuual y-axes using the same time seiies. Figuie Seven shows only kills by al Qaeua, while Figuie Eight shows only uione stiikes against al Qaeua.
Chaptei Foui: Results These giaphs show that no causal ielationship can be establisheu between uione stiikes on al Qaeua anu kills by al Qaeua. The piecipitous uiop in kills by al Qaeua's inteinational teiioiist opeiations begins aftei the attacks of Septembei 11 th , 2uu1, but theie aie no uione stiikes at all on al Qaeua until 2uuS. Fuitheimoie, stiike fiequency uoes not peak until 2uu8, well aftei al Qaeua kills have uioppeu to the low uouble uigits. Theiefoie, the uata cleaily uemonstiate that the uiop in al Qaeua's lethality was not causeu by uione stiikes. In fact, theie weie no uione stiikes at all when al Qaeua's lethality began to uecline, anu fuitheimoie uione stiikes only peakeu aftei al Qaeua's kills hau uioppeu fiom thousanus to hunuieus to single uigits. These u S 1u 1S 2u 2S Su SS 4u 4S Su 2uuu 2uu2 2uu4 2uu6 2uu8 2u1u 2u12 2u14 B . > > 0
$ :
= >
? 2 % @ 2
1%2& 3.45 K7 *&(+% 0-&./%0 (+ =?
27 uata uo not suppoit the assumption that uione stiikes on al Qaeua hau a significant effect on al Qaeua's kill count. If uione stiikes hau inueeu maue an impact on al Qaeua's effectiveness, al Qaeua's kills woulu not begin to uiop until aftei uione stiikes began. Bowevei, since uione stiikes only begin in eainest aftei the numbei of al Qaeua's kills has neaily stabilizeu close to zeio, the uata uo suppoit the conclusion that uione stiikes hau nothing to uo with the uecline in al Qaeua's effectiveness. These iesults can be inteipieteu in a few meaningful ways. Fiist, anu most impoitantly, the giaphs suppoit the iuea that uione stiikes aie actually not the cause of the uecline in al Qaeua's lethality. Al Qaeua's kill count begins uiopping piecipitously in 2uu1-2, going fiom seveial thousanu in 2uu1 to seveial hunuieu in 2uu2 to seveial uozen in 2uu4 without any uione stiike activity at all. Bione attacks coulu not have causeu this uiop in al Qaeua's effectiveness, because when the uecline staiteu, anu foi a few yeais theieaftei, theie weie no uione stiikes taigeting al Qaeua. No mattei how the "uncleai" stiikes aie explaineu, uione stiikes against al Qaeua uo not begin until 2uuS, meaning that uiones coulu not have causeu the beginning of the uecline in al Qaeua's effectiveness. With that saiu, the uata uo not show that uiones aie inheiently ineffective against al Qaeua. It is possible that if uiones hau been employeu eailiei they may have contiibuteu to a fastei uecline in al Qaeua's effectiveness. This analysis uoes not auuiess whethei uiones #4$-* be effective; it aigues only that uiones weie not the cause of al Qaeua's effectiveness uecline since 2uu1, because the lattei pieuates the uione campaign anu thus coulu not have been causeu by it.
28 Chaptei Five: Conclusions The aigument that uione stiikes uiu not cause the uiop in al Qaeua's lethality shoulu influence uebate on the subject of Ameiican uione policy. These finuings make no uiiect aigument about whethei uiones shoulu be employeu oi not, but they uo suggest that a ie-examination of the benefits of the uione campaign coulu be useful. As uiscusseu in Chaptei Two, most uione policy stuuies aie baseu on a compaiison of the costs anu benefits of using uiones. These stuuies assume that uiones aie effective anu focus on uesciibing the costs associateu with using uiones, but this assumption is not suppoiteu by these uata. Analyses of uione policy that cite uiones' impiessive efficiency must take into account this challenge to the assumption that uione stiikes weie iesponsible foi a uecline in al Qaeua's lethality. Some of the claims maue in the aiticles citeu above aie challengeu by these iesults. While uiones iepiesent an unueniable technological auvantage foi the 0niteu States, the uata uo not suppoit the notion that uione use has significantly hinueieu al Qaeua's ability to caiiy out acts of inteinational teiioiism. Theiefoie, woiks that cite uione use outiight as a stiategy that maue an impoitant impact on al Qaeua's inteinational teiioiism capabilities consiueiably oveiestimate the effectiveness of the Ameiican uione stiategy. Nost aiticles uo not explicitly make this claim, focusing insteau on weighing the benefits of uione stiikes that acciue to the 0niteu States against conceins like blowback, inteinational legal issues, oi public opinion. But since these finuings suppoit no positive coiielation between incieaseu uione use anu a ueciease in al Qaeua's lethality, they challenge the aigument that uiones have been useful in pieventing al Qaeua's global teiioiism.
29 This finuing uoes not, howevei, constitute in itself an aigument against the use of uiones in othei places oi othei times. If al Qaeua's effectiveness hau iemaineu steauy when uiones weie fiist ueployeu, peihaps uione use coulu have hau a significant impact against them. It may be that uiones aie useful to the 0niteu States in othei conflicts, oi in othei ways. Foi instance, the Pakistani goveinment may be iequesting help fiom the 0niteu States via the employment of combat uiones, oi uiones may be useful against militants in othei aieas oi othei conflicts like the insuigency in Iiaq. These finuings only peitain to uiones' effectiveness against al Qaeua's coie in Pakistan. The expansion of the uione wai to othei militant gioups may have a uiffeient impact. The iefocusing of uione stiikes against the TTP in paiticulai is an impoitant policy topic that ueseives a moie thoiough examination. Alteinatively, uiones may be useful fiom a uiplomatic peispective. 0n Apiil 11 th , 2u1S, foimei piesiuent Peivez Nushaiiaf "acknowleugeu his goveinment secietly signeu off on 0.S. uione stiikes." S4 Bespite a 2uu8 cable uncoveieu by Wikileaks in which Pakistani ueneial Ashfaq Kayani asks Ameiican Aumiial William Fallon foi "continuous Pieuatoi coveiage of |Waziiistanj," SS Nushaiiaf's
S4 Robeitson, Nic, anu uieg Botelho. "Ex-Pakistani Piesiuent Nushaiiaf Aumits Seciet Beal with 0.S. on Bione Stiikes." CNN. Apiil 12, 2u1S. http:www.cnn.com2u1Su411woiluasiapakistan-mushaiiaf-uiones. SS Allbiitton, Chiis. "Pakistan Aimy Chief Sought Noie Bione Coveiage in 'u8: Wikileaks." Reuteis. Nay 2u, 2u11. http:www.ieuteis.comaiticle2u11uS2uus-pakistan-wikileaks- iu0STRE74}S0v2u11uS2u.
Su announcement was "the fiist time a top past oi piesent Pakistani official has aumitteu publicly to such a ueal." S6
In conclusion, these finuings suggest that political uiscouise iegaiuing uione policy has been laigely baseu on an oveiestimation of uiones' effectiveness against al Qaeua. While uiones have killeu al Qaeua leaueis anu opeiatives, the gioup's lethality was alieauy tienuing towaius zeio befoie the fiist uione stiike on it occuiieu. This means that those authois anu politicians who have aigueu implicitly anu explicitly that uiones weie iesponsible foi uecimating al Qaeua's capabilities aie oveiestimating the effect of uione use on al Qaeua. Biones have many uses, applications, anu auvantages, but accoiuing to these finuings, causing a ieuuction in al Qaeua's effectiveness cannot be ieasonably counteu among them.
S6 Robeitson, Nic, anu uieg Botelho. "Ex-Pakistani Piesiuent Nushaiiaf Aumits Seciet Beal with 0.S. on Bione Stiikes." CNN. Apiil 12, 2u1S. http:www.cnn.com2u1Su411woiluasiapakistan-mushaiiaf-uiones.
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