Shipping Statistics and Market Review Market Review Analytical Focus Volume 56 No 1/2 - 2012 World Merchant Fleet World Bulk Carrier Market World Tanker Market World Container and General Cargo Shipping World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns World Passenger and Cruise Shipping/ ISL Cruise Fleet Register World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders Major Shipping Nations World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffc ISL Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics, Bremen, 2012 All rights reserved. No parts of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or any information storage or retrieval system without permission in writing from the editors. The editors do not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) nor do they accept responsibility for errors or omissions of their consequences. ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) Volume 56 - 2012 Published and distributed by: ISL Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Universitaetsallee 11-13 28359 Bremen, Germany Orders and subscription: Phone: +49/4 21/2 20 96-0 Fax: +49/4 21/2 20 96-55 eMail: subscription@isl.org Web: www.isl.org/shop Subscription prices (Net price): ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) Vol. 56 2012 Print copy 490.- Online version 430.- ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook (SSYB) 2011 Print copy 330.- Print copy + digital version (on disk) 360.- Online version 300.- ISL SSMR Vol. 56 2012 & ISL SSYB 2011 - Package Print copy 680.- Print copy + digital version (SSYB on disk) 700.- Online version 605.- ISL SSMR Vol. 56 2012 - Single issues online version No. 1/2 World Merchant Fleet 120.- No. 3 World Tanker Market 90.- No. 4 World Bulk Carrier Market 90.- No. 5/6 World Container and General Cargo Shipping 150.- No. 7 World Merchant Fleet by Ownership Patterns 90.- No. 8 World Passenger and Cruise Shipping 120.- No. 9/10 World Shipbuilding and Shipbuilders 90.- No. 11 Major Shipping Nations 90.- No. 12 World Seaborne Trade and World Port Traffc 150.- All prices plus packing and postage. In case of inland sales plus VAT (MwSt). Cancellation 3 months before end of calendar year. Comment - World merchant fleet SSMR January/February 2012 www.isl.org
This short comment is an excerpt from the Analytical Comment published in the ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR) No 1/2 2012.
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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior permission of the editors. ISL does not guarantee the accuracy of the information contained in "ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR)" (this is also true for the Short Comment) nor does it accept responsibility for errors or omissions or their consequences. Shipping Statistics and Market Review Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics World Merchant Fleet ISL Comment ........................................................... ISL InfoLine Special ................................................. ISL Statistical Tables ................................................ Market Review Economic Indicators ................................................. World Merchant Fleet .................................................. Freight and Charter Market ....................................... Shipping Prices and Costs ......................................... World Shipbuilding ................................................... World Port Traffic ..................................................... 9 13 18 51 54 57 69 70 72 Volume 56 (2012) ISSN 0947 - 0220 published 9 times per year Analytical Focus (double issues Jan./Feb., May/ June. and Sept./ Oct.) No 1/2 - 2012 Abbreviations/Symbols www.isl.org SSMR January/February 2012 Abbreviations ARA Antwerp/Rotterdam/Amsterdam range AWES Association of West European Shipbuilders b/d Barrels per day BHP Brake horsepower cgt Compensated gross tonnage cif Cost, insurance, freight CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COD Country of Domicile CPE Centrally-planned Economies CPI Consumer price index cST Centi Stokes cu.m Cubic metres (also m3) DB Double bottom DC Developing Countries DH Double hull DIS Danish International Ship Register DME Developed market economies DS Double sides dwt Deadweight tons d/y Day/year ECB European Central Bank EMEs Emerging Market Economies EU European Union FY Fiscal year FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations fio Free in and out fob Free on board FT Freight tons ft Foot GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade gt Gross tonnage HP Horsepower HT Harbour ton ibf Intermediate bunker fuel IEA International Energy Agency IMF International Monetary Fund IMO International Maritime Organization in. Inch ITF International Transport Workers Federation km Kilometre loa Length overall lbs Pounds LDT Light displacement tons LDC Less Developed Countries LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas LT Long ton m Metre mbd Million barrel per day mdo Marine diesel oil MED Mediterranean MfA Marine fishing area mill Million M/T Motor tanker MT Metric tons mtd per ton fob delivered mth Month mtw Per ton ex wharf n.a. Not available NDRF National Defence Reserve Fleet n.e.c. Not elsewhere classified neg. Negligible NIS Norwegian International Ship Register no Number NODC Non-oil Producing Developing Countries nrt Net register tonnage nt Net tonnage NWE,NW Northwest Europe o.a. Over all OBO Ore/bulk/oil carrier OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development O/O Ore/oil carrier OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries OR Ordinary Register P/C Products carrier Pr/OBO Product/ore-bulk-oil carrier r Revised Ro/ro Roll-on/roll-off RT Revenue ton SAR Special administration region SBT Ship segregated ballast tanks SDR Special drawing rights SSMR ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review ST Short ton t Ton/tonne TB Tug/barge TEU Twenty feet equivalent unit TKB Tanker barge T/S Tanker/steam T/T Tanker/turbine ULCC Ultra large crude carrier USAC United States Atlantic Coast USD US Dollar VLCC Very large crude carrier WS Worldscale WTO World Trade Organization YR, YRS Year, Years
Symbols ... Data not available - Nil 0/0.0 Less than half of unit employed 1995-2004 From 1995 to 2004 inclusive 2002/03 Crop year, fiscal year etc., beginning in 2002 and terminating in 2003
Billions means a thousand million Detailed items in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding
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Contents Comment and Statistical Tables www.isl.org SSMR January/February 2012 3 Page ISL Comment World merchant fleet
(1) WORLD TONNAGE SUPPLY 1.1 Ship Type Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ............................................................ 5 1.2 Age and Size Profile of the World Merchant Fleet ........................................................ 6 1.3 Ownership Patterns of the World Merchant Fleet ......................................................... 7 (2) MARKET FUNDAMENTALS 2.1 World Seaborne Trade ............................................................................................ 8 2.2 Rates and Prices .................................................................................................... 9 (3) FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY 3.1 Tankers ............................................................................................................... 10 3.2 Bulk Carriers ......................................................................................................... 10 3.3 General Cargo and Container Ships ......................................................................... 10 (4) WORLD SHIPBUILDING - FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY 4.1 Total Order Book by Ship Type ................................................................................ 11 4.2 Outlook impact of the crisis .................................................................................. 12 SUMMARY TABLES - COMMENT Tab. 1 World Merchant Fleets Reductions by Major Ship Types 2008 - 2011 ............................ 5 Tab. 2 World Merchant Fleet's Newbuilding Additions by Major Ship Types 2008 - 2011 ............. 5 Tab. 3 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type 2007 and 2011 ..................................................... 6 Tab. 4 Largest Ships by Ship type per Ship Type Category 2011 ............................................. 7 Tab. 5 World Merchant Fleet by Ship Type and National and Foreign Flag 2008, 2011 and 2012 ... 7 Tab. 6 Development of Major Open Registry Flags 2008-2012 ................................................ 7 Tab. 7 Newbuilding Additions of the Top 5 Countries of Domicile by National and Foreign Flag 2011 8 Tab. 8 Total World Merchant Fleet (Registered and Controlled) by Region 2012 ........................ 8 Tab. 9 Ship Type Contribution for Selected OECD Countries (Controlled Fleet) 2012 .................. 8 Tab. 10 Controlled Fleets of Major Shipping Nations 2008-2012 ............................................... 9 Tab. 11 End-year Rate Level for Benchmark Tanker Trades 12/2009-12/2011 ............................ 10 Tab. 12 Total Order Book - Delivery Schedule by Country of Build 2012 .................................... 11 Tab. 13 New Orders by Major Ship Types during 2007 2011 ................................................. 11 Tab. 14 Total Order Book by Major Ship Types 2008-2012 ...................................................... 12 Tab. 15 Major Shipbuilding Countries Order Book and cgt per Cent-Shares of Total Order Book ..... 12 FIGURES - COMMENT Fig. 1 World Merchant Fleet Annual Tonnage Changes 20002012 ...................................... 5 Fig. 2 World Tonnage Additions and Reductions 2000-2012 .................................................. 5 Fig. 3 World Merchant Fleet Age Structure by Major Ship Types 2012 .................................. 6 Fig. 4 World Merchant Fleet Ship Size Development of Selected Ship Types 1991-2012 .......... 6 Fig. 5 Total World Merchant Fleet by National and Foreign Registries 20008-2012 .................... 7 Fig. 6 Country Groups Fleets Share on Ship Types of the World Merchant Fleet 2012 ............... 8 Fig. 7 Controlled Fleet Development of Major Shipping Nations 2008-2012 .............................. 8 Fig. 8 Monthly Development of Baltic Indices 2008-2011 ...................................................... 9 Fig. 9 Monthly HARPEX Container Charter Rate Index up to December 20010 .......................... 9 Fig. 10 Share of the Ordered Tonnage on the Existing Merchant Fleets by Type 2000-2012 ......... 10 Fig. 11 Tanker Fleet - Development of New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011 ................. 10 Fig. 12 Bulk fleet - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011 ........................................ 10 Fig. 13 General Cargo Fleet New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage, 2006-2011, quarterly ............. 10 Fig. 14 Container Ships - New Orders and Broken-up Tonnage 2006-2011, quarterly ................. 11 Fig. 15 World Order Book Quarterly Development by Major Ship Types 2006-2011 .................... 11 Fig. 16 Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries as of January 1 st , 2012 ............ 12
ISL InfoLine Special World merchant fleet ISL Statistical Tables World merchant fleet (1) WORLD MERCHANT FLEET 1.1 Keyfigures as of January 1 st , 2012 ............................................................................ 16 1.2 Ranking by Flag as of January 1 st , 2011 and 2012 ...................................................... 17 1.3 By Major Flags and Ship Type as of January 1 st , 2012 .............................................. 20 1.4 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Regions and Ship Type 2012 ..... 22 1.5 By Registered Flag and Country of Domicile According to Country Groups/Ship Type 2012 23 1.6 Fleet Development by Ship Type 2008, 2010-2012 ..................................................... 24 1.7 By Division of Age and Ship Type as of January 1 st , 2012 ............................................. 27 1.8 By Size Class and Ship Type as of January 1 st , 2012 ................................................... 28 1.9 By Summer Draught and Ship Type as of January 1 st , 2012 No of Ships ...................... 30 1.10 By Country of Domicile as of January 1 st , 2012 ........................................................... 31 1.11 Top Ten Countries of Domicile by Major Ship Types as of January 1 st , 2008, 2011 and 2012 32 13 18-43 5-16 4 SSMR January/February 2012 ISL Statistical Tables World merchant fleet (continued) (2) BROKEN-UP MERCHANT SHIPS (YEARLY ANALYSIS) 2.1 Broken-up Ships by Type 2001 - 2011 ...................................................................... 33 2.2 Average Age of Broken-up Ships by Type 2001-2011 .................................................. 33 2.3 Broken-up Ships by Major Flags and Type January December 2011 ......................... 34 2.4 Broken-up ships by Country Groups of Registration and Type January December 2011 .. 34 2.5 Broken-up ships by Year of Build and Ship Type January December 2011 .................... 35 2.6 Broken-up ships by Size Class and Type January December 2011 ............................... 35 (3) DEVELOPMENT OF WORLD SEABORNE TRADE 3.1 Seaborne Trade Volume in Tonnes 1990-2011 ........................................................... 36 (4) WORLD ORDER BOOK - FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY 4.1 Ships on Order by Type as of January 1st, 2011 and 2012 ........................................... 37 4.2 Ships on Order by Major Types and Country of Build as of January 1st, 2011 and 2012 .... 37 4.3 Ships on Order by Type and Major Shipyards as of January 1st, 2012 ............................ 38 4.4 Ships on Order by Ship Type and Delivery Schedule as of January 1st, 2012 .................. 38 4.5 Ships on Order by Country of Build and Delivery Schedule as of January 1st, 2012 .......... 39 4.6 Ships on Order by Type and DWT-Size Class as of January 1 st , 2012 ............................. 39 4.7 Additions to Order Book by Ship Type and Major Countries of Build 20082011 ............... 40 FIGURES STATISTICAL TABLES Fig. 1 Tankers and Dry Cargo Ships Broken-up 1990 - 2011 ................................................. 33 Fig. 2 Cargo Carried by World Fleet 1990 - 2011 ................................................................. 37 Fig. 4 Total World Order Book by Major ship types 2001-2012 .............................................. 38
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18-43 Comment - World merchant fleet SSMR January/February 2012 www.isl.org 5 1 FLEET DEVELOPMENT 2011 Global shipping experienced a turbulent year due to a combination of falling freight rates, ship oversupply and tighter bank lending. As regards charter and freight rates, the year 2011 was rather mixed. It started well for ship owners with freight rates similar to those at the end of 2010. In container shipping, rates even increased during the first half, but almost all markets were on a downward trend towards the end of 2011. The year also brought a lot of change to the world merchant fleet. Never in the past had so much capacity been added to the fleet within one year. At the same time, ship breakers were busier than during the crisis year 2009. Fleet The world merchant fleet continues to expand rapidly. After 146 million dwt of new capacity added in 2010, at least 2,775 newbuildings with a combined tonnage of 164 million dwt were delivered in 2011, resulting in an 8.4 per cent growth of the world merchant fleet. The capacity of ships delivered in 2011 was 12.2 per cent higher than in the already exceptional year 2010. Bulk carriers contributed nearly two thirds to the tonnage delivered in 2011. At the beginning of 2012, the total world merchant fleet comprised 48,197 ships with 1.46 billion dwt and 15.3 million TEU. With a plus of 14.7 per cent, the dry bulk sector again witnessed the largest year-on-year increase (after 17 per cent one year earlier). The fully cellular container fleet grew by 8.7 per cent (TEU). Both fleets have almost doubled since 2005. Newbuildings About 110 million dwt were reported as new orders during 2011. The volume of orders placed has been falling since 2007. With a volume of 344 million dwt at the start of 2012, the world order book was 42% smaller than in 2008. During 2011 more than 700 merchant vessel orders were cancelled, i.e. removed from the order book. Though the order book has shrunk in all segments, all sectors will see large volumes of new tonnage in the short term. At the beginning of 2012, the total order book still represents around 24 per cent of existing fleet capacity. Especially in the bulk carrier segment we see an oversized order book (32 per cent of the existing fleet). With view to other ship types, these shares stood at 26 per cent for container ships, 15 per cent for tankers and 13 per cent for general cargo vessels. In 2011, Chinese, Korean and Japanese yards accounted for close to 95% of world deliveries, Chinese shipbuilders delivering over 1,000 vessels for the second year in a row the largest ever by one nation in a single year. Demolition market Since the beginning of the economic crisis, ship breaking experienced a revival. After 33 million dwt in 2009 and 29 million dwt in 2010, the volume of the reported broken-up tonnage reached a peak with nearly 41 million dwt in 2011. It was the third highest demolition level ever (1,516 merchant vessels). Compared to 2010, bulk carrier Fig. 1: World merchant fleet Annual tonnage changes 1999 2012 (dwt- per cent)
Fig. 2: World tonnage additions and reductions 1998-2011 (in dwt)
Fig. 3: World merchant fleet Age structure by major ship types as of January 1 st , 2012 (No. of ships per-cent share)
Tab. 1: World merchant fleet by ship type as of January 1 st , 2008 and 2012
Sources If not otherwise mentioned, the source for tables and figures concerning the world merchant fleet, special ship type features and order book information is ISL based on HIS Fairplay, please quote accordingly. If not indicated otherwise, merchant fleet data refer to ships of 300 gt and over.
% - c h a n g e 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 m i l l
d w t Additions Reductions 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Tankers Bulk carriers Container ships General cargo Passenger ships % - s h a r e
( N o .
o f
s h i p s ) up to 1991 1992- 2001 2002-2006 2007-2011 No of 2012 2008 2012 ships dwt TEU 2008 2012 Tankers 547.4 40.7 37.4 3.2 5.7 ... 16.7 14.5 - Oil tankers 496.7 37.1 34.0 4.1 5.6 ... 16.5 14.0 - Chemical tankers 6.3 1.0 0.4 -4.0 -9.4 ... 19.2 20.0 - Liquid gas tankers 44.5 2.7 3.0 4.4 10.2 ... 15.8 14.2 Bulk/OBO carriers 605.8 36.0 41.4 7.1 11.9 -5.3 16.0 12.4 - Bulk carriers 601.9 35.4 41.2 7.2 12.0 -4.5 15.9 12.3 - OBO carriers 3.9 0.6 0.3 -6.1 -2.5 ... 21.8 23.7 Container ships 196.9 12.7 13.5 4.1 8.0 9.2 10.6 10.4 General cargo ships 105.3 9.9 7.2 -1.2 0.6 1.4 22.4 21.2 - Single-deck ships 60.6 4.8 4.1 0.6 4.2 6.4 20.9 19.6 - Multi-deck ships 15.7 2.5 1.1 -7.9 -10.2 -7.5 28.8 30.0 - Reefer ships 5.7 0.7 0.4 -3.5 -3.9 0.0 22.8 24.7 - Special ships 17.1 1.3 1.2 1.8 5.2 1.9 19.0 16.3 - RoRo cargo ships 6.1 0.7 0.4 0.9 -2.0 -5.0 19.4 18.0 6.4 0.6 0.4 -0.4 0.8 -5.5 23.0 22.9 - Pure passenger ships 2.1 0.2 0.1 -3.0 0.1 -45.4 21.3 21.5 - Other passenger ships 4.3 0.4 0.3 1.4 1.2 -3.9 23.9 23.8 Total 1461.8 100.0 100.0 2.0 7.9 7.9 18.9 16.7 Average age (years) Passenger ships Ship type dwt-% share of total Av. yearly growth 2008-2012 (%) mill dwt Comment - World merchant fleet SSMR January/February 2012 6 www.isl.org demolition has increased fourfold to 24.4 million dwt. Bulk carriers represented 60 per cent of the total broken-up tonnage in 2011. 1.1 Size development The average size of bulk carriers, container ships, cruise vessels and to a lesser extent tankers has been increasing steadily during the last few years (see Figure 4). A total of 105 VLCC tankers on order range in the size class above 300,000 dwt. About one third of all tankers on order are in size classes above 80,000 dwt against 19 per cent in the current fleet. The focus of the order activity in the bulk carrier segment has been on Capesize vessels (>85.000 dwt). The current order book includes 516 bulk carriers of 85,000 dwt and above, the average size of all bulk carriers on order is 82,000 dwt against 64,000 dwt in the active fleet. The average size of container ships has more than doubled in 20 years. The average size increased from 1,250 TEU (1990) to 3,064 TEU at the beginning of 2012. In the current order book, cellular container ships have an average size of 6,900 TEU. At the start of 2012, 111 container ships in service had capacities of 10,000 TEU and above against 165 container ships on order in this size class. Meanwhile, Maersk Line has ordered 20 container ships in a new size class, each able to transport 18,000 TEU. Cruise vessels also tend to larger sizes. The average size for cruise vessels on order is 100,000 gt. There are now 47 ships in the world cruise fleet larger than 100,000 gt with an average capacity of 3,700 berths. 1.2 Ownership patterns of the world merchant fleet World merchant fleet by flag The flag-related ownership analysis shows the increasing concentration on open registry flags. At the beginning of 2012, 940 million dwt equal to 70 per cent of the total merchant fleet tonnage were registered under foreign flags mainly open registry flags. Tonnage registered under the top ten open registry flags totalled 809 million dwt. The leading open registry flag is Panama with 320 million dwt (21.9 per cent of the world tonnage), followed by Liberia with 183 million dwt (12.5 per cent) and the Marshall Islands with 116 million dwt (7.9 per cent). World merchant fleet by country of domicile of owner The country-by-country analysis underlines that the world shipping scene is controlled by a few shipping countries. At the beginning of 2012, about 70 per cent of the total deadweight tonnage of the world merchant fleet was controlled by only ten countries (excl. tonnage for ships of which the parent company is unknown). Greece is still the leading shipping nation in terms of deadweight tonnage with a controlled tonnage of 217 million dwt (16.4 per cent) followed by Japan with 210 million dwt (15.8 per cent) and Germany with 125 million dwt (9.5 per cent). Greek ship owners increased their tonnage on average by 5.4 per cent per year in the period 2008-2012. Within the top shipping nations, the highest Fig. 4: World merchant fleet Ship size development of selected ship types as of January 1 st , 1990 2012 (average dwt)
Fig. 5: Total world merchant fleet by national and foreign registries as of January 1 st , 1995 2012 (dwt index 1995 = 100)
Fig. 6: Country groups controlled fleets share on ship types of the world merchant fleet as of January 1 st , 2012 (dwt-%-share)
Fig. 7: Controlled fleet development of major shipping nations as of January 1 st , 2008-2012
Additions/reductions: Additions (newbuildings) and reductions (broken-up) tonnage refer to the fleet data of the respective year. Single shipping markets: In-depth analyses will be presented in the next SSMR issues, namely in No 2 (Tanker fleet), No 3 (Bulk fleet), No 5/6 (General cargo and container shipping) and No 7 (Passenger/Cruise fleet) Explanatory note Country of domicile indicating where the controlling interest of the fleet is located in terms of the parent company. This information is only available for merchant ships of 1,000 gt and over. As of January 1 st , 2012, the country of domicile information was attributable to 33,373 merchant ships with a total tonnage of 1.33 billion dwt, whereas for 5,751 ships with 126.0 mill dwt this information was unknown. 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 s h i p
s i z e
( a v .
d w t ) Oil tankers Bulk carriers Container ships 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 National flag Foreign flag 217.1 209.8 125.5 115.6 54.5 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 m i l l
d w t average annual dwt growth in % Germany China, PR of Korea, Rep.of Japan Greece Comment - World merchant fleet SSMR January/February 2012 7 www.isl.org tonnage growth in this period was reached by Korea (10.4 per cent), the UK (11.3 per cent) and China (8.6 per cent). 2 MARKET FUNDAMENTALS IN 2010/2011 2.1 World seaborne trade From a total of 8.8 billion tonnes of seaborne trade in 2011, about 35.0 per cent are attributable to liquid bulks. Due to the low growth of global oil trade compared with other commodities and due to increasing pipeline transport volumes, this share decreased from 40 per cent in 1990 to the current value. As the growing supply of dry bulk tonnage suggests, the share of major dry bulk volumes still increases. In 2011, 28.0 per cent of the total seaborne trade were attributable to iron ore, coal and grain. According to Clarkson Research, containerised cargo had a share of 17 per cent in total seaborne trade in 2011. During the course of 2011, especially the increase of container trade (+9.7 per cent), Bauxite (+8.9 per cent) and the group of minor bulks (+ 4.9 per cent), which includes the so-called noble earths, reveal the economic recovery. Crude oil and products shipments increased by 2.4 per cent, and 3.0 per cent respectively between 2010 and 2011. During the same period, LNG-transport by sea increased by only 1.3 per cent (see also table 3.1 Seaborne Trade on page 36). 2.2 Rates and prices Ship owners nowadays have to pay the price for the vast ordering activities of the past five years. Deliveries to the active fleet with a combined capacity of 165 million dwt have set rates under an enormous pressure (see table 1.1 on page 16). As a consequence, ship builders will probably not be able to sustain the relatively stable prices they were earning so far. In this regard the tendency to order bigger vessels widens the gap between supply and demand not only in the bulk and container market, but also in the tanker market (see Table 4 above). Tanker market Compared to bulk and container markets, the tanker sector was particularly struck by the ongoing conflicts in Northern Africa in 2011. Moreover, rates weakened significantly primarily due to an oversupply of vessels relative to demand. Additionally, the release of some 60 million barrels of crude oil from several governmental stockpiles and some oilfield outages impeded the tanker demand during the last twelve month. All in all, it can be stated that the bigger the tanker, the sharper the dip of the charter rates. Since the ridge of the rate levels in early 2010, tanker spot World Scales (WS) on the Arabian Gulf to Europe trade, for example, are nearly 20 per cent lower on average than in 2010. The Average WS for VLCC tankers was around 38 versus WS 49.2 in 2010, with peaks during winter times. Consequently, the main market for oil shipments is still weak. Bulk carrier market It is obvious that the bulk sector still has difficulties to absorb the armada of new ships ordered in the pre-crisis era. This sets the rate development under high pressure. Fig. 8: Share of selected commodity groups on world seaborne trade in 2011 and 1990 (% of total volume)
Fig. 9: Monthly development of Baltic indices 2007-2012
ISL Bremen 2012; based on Baltic Exchange
Fig. 10: Time charter rates for tankers 2007 - 2012
ISL Bremen 2012; based on Fearnleys Weekly
Fig. 11: Monthly HARPEX Container charter rate index up to December 2012
ISL Bremen 2012; based on Harper Petersen & Co., Hamburg
Fig. 12: Share of the ordered tonnage on the existing merchant fleets by type as of January 1 st , 2007-2012 (dwt-%)
Major dry bulks 28% Minor bulks 11% Container 17% Liquid bulk 35% Others 9% 2011 Major dry bulks 23% Minor bulks 16% Container 6% Liquid bulk 40% Others 15% 1990 0 4000 8000 12000 16000 20000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Baltic Dry Index Baltic Panmax Index Baltic Capesize Index 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 0 0 0
U S
$ / d a y VLCC (modern) SUEZMAX (modern) 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 Jan. 07 Jul Jan. 08 Jul Jan. 09 Jul Jan. 10 Jul Jan. 11 Jul Jan. 12 H A R P E X
I n d e x 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 Tanker Bulk carrier Container General Cargo 40.4 24.7 42.1 12.5 28.9 60.4 32.8 19.3 15.2 32.3 26.0 13.0 d w t
- %
s h a r e
o f
o r d e r b o o k
o n
f l e e t
Comment - World merchant fleet SSMR January/February 2012 8 www.isl.org Consequently, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), during 2010 on the way up, fell to ranges of around 1400, not far away from the low point at the end of 2008, but picked up 40 per cent up to 1900 points at the turn of the year. This upswing was mostly limited to the Capesize class while the Panamax sector stagnated. On the demand side, heavy rain and floods in Australia severely disrupted coal and iron ore trade in early 2011. Weather conditions are again expected to hit the dry bulk trades in 2012. As a result of La Nina, the US Gulf is expected to experience significant drought in first quarter 2012, affecting grain exports. Container charter rates Until mid-2011, the charter rates have benefited from the market recovery. In the second half the rates have fallen back to the level of mid-2009. The large number of additions to the fleet in the upper size segment has accelerated the cascade effect, creating pressure on rates in all size segments and crowding out smaller units. At the same time, the slowdown of growth in many industrialised countries led to a deceleration of demand for capacity. At the end of 2011, the downward trend in charter rates of recent months continued. An annual comparison shows that the low rates now varied between one and two thirds of the previous years figures. Howe Robinson published a level of around 476 points for the weighted container index (HRCI) at the end of December 2011, a decrease of 30.7 per cent compared to December 2010. Demolition and newbuilding prices As stated above, it is not unlikely that newbuilding prices may weaken as yards have to fill their order books in times of observant markets. At the turn of the year, the values for all ship types move marginally down. Bulk carrier newbuilding prices, especially for larger vessels, were around 2 per cent lower than at the end of 2010, of course a reaction of the high amount of newbuildings. Correspondingly the level of newbuilding prices was relatively low. According to industry sources, namely Fearnleys and Platou, the second hand values for tankers were relatively low in the crude sector and more or less stable regarding the products tankers. 3 FUTURE TONNAGE SUPPLY The economic recovery since 2010 also revives global shipbuilding. At least 2,042 merchant vessels with nearly 39 million cgt were reported as new orders during 2011. However due to many deliveries and removals the order book for merchant ships has decreased in all segments. The global order book at the start of 2012 comprised 5,301 ships with 108 million cgt, 16.9 per cent less than a year ago and 41.3 per cent less than five years ago. 3.1 Tankers During 2011 tanker deliveries consisted of 640 units with 44.4 million dwt, thereof 531 oil tankers and 74 liquid gas tankers. In the same period 433 new orders with 18.1 million dwt were placed, 220 units were removed from the order book, and 249 units with 9.0 million dwt were reported to be broken up. At the beginning of 2012, 1,138 Fig. 13: Tanker fleet - quarterly development of new orders and broken-up tonnage 2005 2011 (in dwt)
Fig. 14: Bulk fleet - quarterly development of new orders and broken- up tonnage 2005 2011 (in dwt)
Fig. 15: General cargo fleet quarterly development of new orders and broken-up tonnage, 2005 2011 (mill dwt)
Fig. 16: Container ships - quarterly development of new orders and broken-up tonnage 2005 2011 (mill dwt)
5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III 10/I 10/III 11/I 11/III m i l l
d w t Broken-up New orders 20.0 10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 05/I 05/III 06/I 06/III 07/I 07/III 08/I 08/III 09/I 09/III 10/I 10/III 11/I 11/III m i l l
d w t Broken-up New orders 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 05/IV 06/II 06/IV 07/II 07/IV 08/II 08/IV 09/II 09/IV 10/II 10/IV 11/II 11/IV m i l l
d w t Broken-up New orders 3.0 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 15.0 18.0 05/IV 06/II 06/IV 07/II 07/IV 08/II 08/IV 09/II 09/IV 10/II 10/IV 11/II 11/IV m i l l
d w t Broken-up New orders Comment - World merchant fleet SSMR January/February 2012 9 www.isl.org tankers with 25.2 million cgt (83 million dwt) were on order. The total tanker order book corresponded to 15 per cent of the total tanker fleet, compared with 24 per cent one year earlier. More than half of this tonnage volume is scheduled until end of 2012. 3.2 Bulk carriers At the start of 2012, we still see a huge oversupply of vessels in the bulk carrier segment. The future supply/demand balance in the bulk market is determined by a surprisingly high contracting of newbuildings: 941 new orders totalling 16.9 million cgt (68 million dwt) were ordered. At the same time, 431 bulk carriers with 24 million dwt were reported as demolitions and more than 320 vessels were removed from the order book during 2011. At the beginning of 2012, the order book for bulk carriers comprised 2,397 carriers with 45.6 million cgt (195 million dwt). This would increase the bulk carrier fleet by almost one third in the years to come. 3.3 Container ships and General cargo vessels In 2011, a total of 253 container ships with a combined capacity of 1.8 million TEU were ordered worldwide, up from 0.7 million TEU one year earlier. At the beginning of 2012 the order book for container ships comprised 631 ships with 23.3 million cgt (4.4 mill TEU). The container ship order book at the beginning of 2012 represented a TEU ratio of 28.5 per cent in relation to the existing container fleet. Based on the current order book the container fleet capacity will increase by 10.2 per cent in 2012 and about 9 per cent in 2013 if ships are delivered as planned. A noticeable 165 container ships on order had capacities of 10,000 TEU and above, of which 134 ships with more than 12,000 TEU. New orders for general cargo ships (incl. various ship types such as ro-ro cargo ships, car carriers or heavy-lift vessels) amounted to 345 vessels with 2.7 million cgt (3.4 million dwt) in 2011, a decrease of 26.5 per cent compared with 2010. The order book as of January 1 st , 2012 comprised 1,004 general cargo ships with 10.2 million cgt and 13.7 million dwt, respectively. The general cargo ship order book at the beginning of 2012 represented a dwt ratio of 13.0 per cent in relation to the existing general cargo fleet. 3.4 Passenger and passenger/ro-ro cargo vessels During 2011, 105 passenger and ro-ro cargo/passenger ships (1.3 million cgt) left the order book after completion, while 70 new orders with 1.0 million cgt were reported. As of January 1 st , 2012, the total order book was composed of 24 cruise vessels with 2.7 million cgt, 36 passenger ships (0.02 mill cgt) and 71 passenger/ro-ro cargo ships with 0.7 million cgt. It includes 16 cruise vessels with capacities of 100,000 gt and over. Total passenger tonnage under construction now represents 9.2 per cent of the fleet in service (cgt), down from 10.2 per cent one year earlier. Fig. 17: World order book - quarterly development by major ship types 2007 - 2012 (mill cgt)
Tab. 2: Total order book by major ship types as of January 1 st , 2008, 2011 and 2012
Fig. 18: Order book market shares of leading shipbuilding countries as of January 1 st , 2012 (cgt - %)
Guide to relevant market information: Shipping & Shipbuilding Market Platou: Platou Monthly, Platou Report: www.platou.com Barry Rogliano Salles: BRS online market information: www.brs-paris.com Simpson Spence & Young: SSY World Oil-Tanker Trend: www.ssyonline.com Clarkson: Container Intelligence Monthly, Oil & Tanker Trades Outlook: www.clarksons.co.uk Statistical details World Shipbuilding Ships on order by type p. 45 By major types and country of build p. 45 By type and major shipyards p. 46 By country of build and delivery schedule p. 47 By ship type and delivery schedule p. 47 Explanatory note The compensated gross tons (cgt) concept was first devised by shipbuilder associations, and adopted by the OECD Council Working Party on Shipbuilding (WP6), in the 1970s to provide a more accurate measure of shipyard activity than could be achieved by the usual gross ton (gt) and deadweight ton (dwt) measures. The compensated gross tons (cgt) is calculated by multiplying the tonnage of a ship by a coefficient, which is determined according to type and size for a particular ship. Cgt is used as an indicator of the volume of work that is necessary to build a given ship. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Tanker Bulk carrier Container Others 07/I 07/I 07/I 07/I 12/1 12/1 12/1 12/1 m i l l
c g t cgt-% No of mill No of mill No of mill change ships cgt ships cgt ships cgt '11/'12 Tankers 2935 63.7 1543 33.1 1138 25.2 -23.6 Bulk carriers 2790 54.0 2944 57.6 2397 45.6 -20.8 Container ships 1518 41.5 606 21.1 631 23.3 10.7 General cargo ships 1421 17.5 1295 14.4 1004 10.3 -29.0 Passenger ships 223 7.4 137 3.9 131 3.6 -6.8 Total 8887 184.0 6525 130.0 5301 108.0 -16.9 Ship type 2008 2012 2011 CESA 4.1% China, PR of 38.2% Kora, Rep. of 32.5% Japan 15.5% Others 9.8% ISL InfoLine - Publications & Databases ISL Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics Legal Form Founded in Capacity Directorate Board of Trustees Scientifc Advisory Board Sponsoring Body Independent, private non-proft foundation 1954 55 permanent staff members Prof Dr Hans-Dietrich Haasis, Prof Dr Burkhard Lemper, Prof Dr Frank Arendt Decision-makers from trade, industry, science and politics Experts from trade, industry and science Companies and individual members from the maritime industry During the past 50 years the Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) has become one of Europe's leading research and consulting organisations in the maritime sector. More than 50 high qualifed employees, equipped with state of the art technology and compatible instruments, work in trans- disciplinary teams on applied research and development projects in the departments Logistic Systems, Maritime Economics and Transport as well as Information Logistics. Due to its professional capability, superb reputation and exhaustive connections to politics and industry, ISL will continuously contribute to the advancement of added value as well as to the maritime and logistics industry as to science in future. www.isl.org info@isl.org The ISL InfoLine is your resource of up-to-date market information and completes ISL's service spectrum with numerous proprietary publications, which are available in the online portal. The key publications are the ISL Shipping Statistics and Market Review (SSMR), the ISL Shipping Statistics Yearbook (SSYB) and the ISL Monthly Container Port Monitor (MCPM). Furthermore, the portal of the ISL InfoLine offers various databases used for market analyses, statistical publications, information services and customers' enquiries. The focus here is on the ISL Port Database and the ISL Fleet Database. www.infoline.isl.org infoline@isl.org ISL Information Centre - Library & Seabase The ISL Information Centre is the leading institution in Europe for information and documentation in maritime economics and logistics. Beside the literature database ISL SEABASE and the reference library in Bremen, the Information Centre offers professional services about industries, markets and companies within the knowledge areas of shipping, shipbuilding and ports, transport and logistics as well as economic and trade. The literature database ISL SEABASE represents more than 105,000 bibliographic records and is an important knowledge source for industry and commerce, research and education. All new entries of the ISL library are bibliographical recorded and made available as regards content. Besides reference books also market studies, research and conference reports, economy statistics as well as business and annual reports are included. Contributions from about 230 national and international professional journals are evaluated selectively after relevance. The ISL SEABASE research is available online and offers a systematic access to current maritime and logistic knowledge. The ISL reference library, which exists since 1954, is one of the biggest libraries in the area of maritime economics and logistics with a total stock of about 125,000 books (September 2011), of which are 30,000 monographs and 29,000 annual publications. Furthermore 750 professional journals and series are kept regularly.The ISL Library is open to the public and the use is free of charge. www.library.isl.org library@isl.org www.isl.org