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Universidade de So Paulo

Faculdade de Filosofia, Letras e Cincias Humanas


Departamento de Cincia Poltica

FLS 5028
Mtodos Quantitativos e Tcnicas em Cincia Poltica
1 semestre / 2013

Lorena G. Barberia

A motivao para esta disciplina de dar aos alunos de ps-graduao a capacidade de usar
o modelo clssico de regresso linear com a necessria confiana terica e prtica para
testar modelos empricos comumente utilizados na cincia poltica e na anlise de polticas
publicas. Ao final do curso, os alunos devem estar cientes de quando usar e quando no
usar o mtodo dos mnimos quadrados ordinrios (OLS). Ser dada nfase nos
procedimentos e testes a serem utilizados para realizar estimativas e inferncias corretas.
Os princpios tratados nesta disciplina fornecem uma base para compreenso geral da
metodologia quantitativa na cincia poltica.

Objetivos

Introduzir conhecimento dos mtodos quantitativos multivariados para a anlise dos
fenmenos scio-polticos.
Capacitar alunos em tcnicas e ferramentas para a anlise dos dados empricos e a
compreenso de artigos elaborados com mtodos quantitativos multivariados na
cincia poltica.
Analisar os alcances e limites das tcnicas de pesquisa na cincia poltica.
Estimular a capacidade crtica necessria para a seleo de tcnicas apropriadas para
coleta de dados e pesquisa.

Metodologia

O programa ser desenvolvido em aulas tericas e laboratrios. Nos laboratrios sero
aplicados os conceitos e tcnicas desenvolvidos nas aulas tericas.

Avaliao
Listas de Exerccios 40%
Prova Parcial 20%
Trabalho Final 40%

Software
As aulas e os laboratrios sero ministrados com nfase na capacitao dos alunos na utilizao do
pacote estatstico, STATA, um programa que user-friendly para iniciantes. Os dados utilizados
para anlise nos laboratrios sero disponibilizados em formato STATA.

Os alunos tambm podero utilizar o pacote estatstico R. Este programa gratuito e est disponvel
para download em: http://www.r-project.org/.
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Bibliografia

Achen, Christopher H. 1977. Measuring Representation: Perils of the Correlation Coefficient.
American Journal of Political Science 21: 805-815.

Achen, Christopher H. 2002. Advice for Students Taking a First Political Science Graduate Course
in Statistical Methods, The Political Methodologist 10, 2: 10-12.

Achen, Christopher H. 2005. Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where
They Belong. Conflict Management and Peace Science 22 (4): 327-339.

Beck, Nathaniel. 2010. Making Regression and Related Output More Helpful to Users. The
Political Methodologist 18(1): 4-9.

Brambor, Thomas, William Roberts Clark, e Matt Golder. 2006. Understanding Interaction Models:
Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1): 63-82.

Braumoeller, Bear. 2004. Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms, International
Organization (Fall): 807-20.

Clark, William, Michael Gilligan e Matt Golder. 2006. A Simple Multivariate Test for Asymmetric
Hypotheses. Political Analysis 14: 311-331.

Downs, George e David Rocke. 1979. Interpreting Heteroskedasticity. American Journal of
Political Science 23 (November): 816-828.

Fearon, J ames D. 1980. Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science. World Politics
43 (2): 169-195.

Gelman, Andrew, e Hal Stern. 2006. The Difference Between Significant and Not Significant is
not Itself Statistically Significant. The American Statistician 60 (4): 328-331.

Kellstedt, Paul M. e Whitten, Guy D. The Fundamentals of Political Science Research. New York;
London: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

King, Gary, Robert O. Keohane, e Sidney Verba. Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific Inference in
Qualitative Research. Princeton, N.J .: Princeton University Press, 1994. (verso em ingles de KKV)

King, Gary, Keohane, Robert, e Verba, Sidney. El Diseo de la Investigacin Social. 3 ed. Madrid:
Alianza, 2009. (verso em espanhol de KKV)

King, Gary. 1990. When Not to Use R-Squared. The Political Methodologist 3(2): 9-11.

Lewis-Beck, Michael S. e Andrew Skalaban. 1990. When to Use R-Squared. The Political
Methodologist 3 (2): 11-12.

Luskin, Robert. 1991. R-Squared Encore. The Political Methodologist 4(1): 21-23.
Shalev, Michael. 2007. "Limits and Alternatives to Multiple Regression in Comparative Research"
Comparative Social Research 24:261308.

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Shively, W. Phillips. The Craft of Political Research. 8th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J .:
Pearson/Prentice Hall, 2009.

Stock, J ames H., e Mark W. Watson. 2011. Introduction to Econometrics. 3rd ed. Boston:
Pearson/Addison Wesley.

Tufte, Edward R. 1974. Data Analysis for Public Policy. New J ersey: Prentice Hall. Disponvel em:
http://www.edwardtufte.com/tufte/dapp/.

Wallerstein, Michael. 2000. "Trying to Navigate between Scylla and Charybdis: Misspecified and
Unidentified Models in Comparative Politics," APSA-CP: Newsletter for the Organized Section in
Comparative Politics of the American Political Science Association, 11, 2 (Summer): 1- 21.

Wooldridge, J effrey M. Introduo Econometria: Uma Abordagem Moderna. Traduo da 4 ed.
norte-americana. So Paulo: Cengage Learning, 2011.

Tutorias para STATA
Baum, Christopher F. 2006. An Introduction to Modern Econometrics Using Stata. Stata
Press.

Cameron, Colin e Pravin Trivedi. 2010. Microeconometrics Using Stata. 2nd ed. Stata
Press.

Rodrguez, Germn. 2011. Stata Tutorial. Disponvel em: http://data.princeton.edu/stata/.

UCLA Academic Technology Services. Resources to help you learn and use Stata. Disponvel em:
http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/stata/default.htm.

Tutorias para R
Fox, J ohn e Sanford Weisberg. An R Companion to Applied Regression. Thousand Oaks, Calif.:
Sage Publications, 2011. [http://socserv.mcmaster.ca/jfox/Books/Companion/index.html]

Owen, W.J . The R Guide. Disponvel em: http://cran.r-project.org/doc/contrib/Owen-
TheRGuide.pdf.

Venables, W. N. e Smith, D.M. An Introduction to R. Disponvel em: http://cran.r-
project.org/doc/manuals/R-intro.pdf

Verzani, J ohn. Simple R. Disponvel em: http://cran.r-project.org/doc/contrib/Verzani-SimpleR.pdf
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Programao de Aulas

1. Introduo: Dados, Teorias, Desenho de Pesquisa e Causalidade

Achen. Advice for Students Taking a First Political Science Graduate Course in Statistical
Methods, The Political Methodologist 10, 2 (Spring, 2002): 10-12.

KKV, Captulo 1, The Science in Social Science, pp.13-44.

Kellstedt e Whitten, Captulo 1, The Scientific Study of Politics, pp. 1-20.

Kellstedt e Whitten, Captulo 2, The Art of Theory Building, pp. 22-43.

Causalidade

KKV, Captulo 3, Causalidad e Inferencia Causal, pp. 87-96.[1. Definicin de causalidad]

Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 3, Evaluating Causal Relationships, pp. 45-65.

Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 4, Research Design, pp. 67-84.

Leitura Complementar

Shively, Captulo 6, Causal Thinking and Design of Research, pp. 74-96.


2. Fundamentos da Probabilidade e Fundamentos de Estatstica Matemtica

Stock e Watson, Captulo 2, Review of Probability, pp. 17-64.

Woolridge, Apndice B.Fundamentos da Probabilidade, pp. 21-53.

Wooldridge, Apndice C. Fundamentos de Estatstica Matemtica, pp. 55-95

3. Inferncia Estatstica e Estatstica Descritiva



Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 6, Descriptive Statistics and Graphs, pp. 104-118.

Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 7, Statistical Inference, pp. 120-132.

Stock e Watson, Captulo 3, Review of Statistics, pp. 65-107.

Leitura Complementar


KKV, Captulo 2, Descriptive Inference, pp. 45-76.

4. Introduo ao Modelo de Regresso

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Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 9, Bivariate Regression Models, pp. 159-182.



Stock e Watson, Captulo 4,Linear Regression with One Regressor, pp. 111-147.

Wooldridge, Captulo 2. O Modelo de Regresso Simples, pp. 20-59.

Leitura Complementar

KKV, Captulo 3, Causality and Causal Inference, pp. 75-113.

Tufte, Captulo 3.Two Variable Linear Regresssion, pp. 65-134.


5. O Modelo de Regresso: Inferncia I

Stock e Watson, Captulo 5,Regression with a Single Regressor: Hypothesis Tests and Confidence
Intervals, pp. 148-185.

Wooldridge, Captulo 4. Anlise de Regresso Mltipla: Inferncia, pp. 110-152.

Leitura Complementar

Fearon, J ames D. 1980. Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science. World Politics 43
(2): 169-195.


6. O Modelo de Regresso Multivariado

Beck, Nathaniel. 2010. Making Regression and Related Output More Helpful to Users. The Political
Methodologist 18(1): 4-9.

Stock e Watson, Captulo 6,Linear Regression with Multiple Regressors, pp. 186-220.

Wooldridge, Captulo 3. Anlise de Regresso Mltipla: Estimao, pp. 64-100.

Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 10, Multiple Regression I: The Basics, pp. 183-200.


7. O Modelo de Regresso: Inferncia II

Achen, Christopher H. 1977. Measuring Representation: Perils of the Correlation Coefficient. American
Journal of Political Science 21: 805-815.

Gelman, Andrew, and Hal Stern. 2006. The Difference Between Significant and Not Significant is
not Itself Statistically Significant. The American Statistician 60 (4): 328-331.

Stock e Watson, Captulo 7,Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals in Multiple Regression, pp. 220-
253.

King, Gary. 1990. When Not to Use R-Squared. The Political Methodologist 3(2): 9-11.

6

Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Andrew Skalaban. 1990. When to Use R-Squared. The Political
Methodologist 3 (2): 11-12.

Leitura Complementar

Luskin, Robert. 1991. R-Squared Encore. The Political Methodologist 4(1): 21-23.

8. O Modelo de Regresso: Propriedades Assimptticas

Wooldridge, Captulo 5. Anlise de Regresso Mltipla: MQO Assimpttico, pp. 158-173.

KKV, Captulo 6, Increasing the Number of Observations, pp. 208-229.


9. O Modelo de Regresso com Dados Qualitativos

Braumoeller, Bear. 2004. Hypothesis Testing and Multiplicative Interaction Terms, International
Organization (Fall): 807-20.

Brambor, Thomas, William Roberts Clark, and Matt Golder. 2006. Understanding Interaction Models:
Improving Empirical Analyses. Political Analysis 14 (1): 63-82.

Clark, William, Michael Gilligan & Matt Golder. 2006. A Simple Multivariate Test for Asymmetric
Hypotheses. Political Analysis 14: 311-331.

Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 11, Multiple Regression Models II: Crucial Extensions, pp. 202-220.

Wooldridge. Captulo 7. Anlise de Regresso Mltipla com Informaes Qualitativas:
Variveis Binrias (ou Dummy), pp. 210-242.

Leitura Complementar

Samuels, David J . 2000. The Gubernatorial Coattails Effect: Federalism and Congressional Elections in
Brazil. The Journal of Politics, Vol. 62, No. 1., pp. 240-253.

10. O Modelo de Regresso: Omisso de variveis relevantes, multicolinearidade, erro de medio
e hetereoscedasticidade

Kellstedt e Whitten. Captulo 11, Multiple Regression Models II: Crucial Extensions, pp. 220-232.

Wooldridge. Captulo 8. Hetereoscedasticidade, pp. 247-276.

Wooldridge. Captulo 9. Problemas Adicionais de Especificao e de Dados, pp. 296-313.

Leitura Complementar

Downs, George and David Rocke. 1979. Interpreting Heteroskedasticity. American Journal of Political
Science 23 (November): 816-828.

KKV, Captulo 5, Understanding What to Avoid, pp. 150-206.

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11. O Modelo de Regresso: Evitando Erros Comuns com Mtodos Quantitativos



Achen, Christopher H. 2005. Let's Put Garbage-Can Regressions and Garbage-Can Probits Where They
Belong. Conflict Management and Peace Science 22 (4): 327-339.

King, Gary. 1986. How Not to Lie With Statistics: Avoiding Common Mistakes in Quantitative Political
Science. American Journal of Political Science 30: 666-687.

Leamer, Edward E. 1983. Lets Take the Con Out of Econometrics. American Economic Review 73: 31-
44.

Stock e Watson, Captulo 9, Assessing Studies Based on Multiple Regression, pp. 312-346.

Leitura Complementar

Shalev, Michael. 2007. "Limits and Alternatives to Multiple Regression in Comparative Research"
Comparative Social Research 24:261308.

Wallerstein, Michael. 2000. "Trying to Navigate between Scylla and Charybdis: Misspecified and
Unidentified Models in Comparative Politics," APSA-CP: Newsletter for the Organized Section in
Comparative Politics of the American Political Science Association, 11, 2 (Summer): 1- 21.