SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITY METEOROLOGY DEPARTMENT

Climate Change in the Next

50 years
Gilroy/Hollister Region

Jack Keovongsa
2014/05/14





Executive summary
This report was created to inform Christopher Ranch of the climate change for the next 50 years.
Downscaled CMIP5 data was used to create graphs of max and minimum temperature as well as
precipitation changes. The results of the downscaled CMIP 5 data show that will be an increase
in max temperature for the next 50 years. Minimum temperatures showed a similar rate of
temperature change per year as max temperatures. There was no clear view as to how
precipitation change will occur as models did not agree.
Background
In the past few decades, there have been reports explaining and proving that climate change is
occurring due to human influence. Several sources are more responsible to the changes in
climate such as combustion of fossil fuels and land alterations. One of the main effects we have
seen due to climate change is the rise in temperature in certain regions of the globe. This can
also affect many other aspects of weather such as relative humidity, precipitation, and wind
flows.
In todays world, computer models are able to predict the weather with high confidence 3 to 7
days into the future and degrading to medium to low confidence for 2 weeks to 30 days. This is
done by using very complex computer models that simulate the earth environment. Using the
same principle, scientists from around the world have ran their own computer models that
simulate the Earths atmosphere for the next hundred years. An organization called CMIP-5
(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) has given guidelines for the scientists to run
their models under a standard premise. This allows them to focus on the carbon cycle, the ability
of models to predict climate on the decadal time scale and how slightly different models results
compare with one another. CMIP 5 also takes into account that technology and human behavior
changes. These scenarios are labeled RCP, which stands for Representative Concentration
Pathways.
The Climate for the Gilroy area in terms of temperature ranges from mid-30 and mid-80 F so
high temperatures from November to April we see temperatures range from 60-70 F and low
temperatures 35-45 F. From May to October, high temperatures range from 70-90 F and low
temperatures range from 45-54 F with the highest values being around the months of August to
October. Precipitation for the area is low.
Methodology
In order to predict the change in climate, special computer models must be run using large
amounts of computing power. CMIP 5 is a collection of the data from all the models that were
ran. There are many variables that are covered from soil moisture to cloud fraction, it is very
complex. The RCP scenarios chosen for this data were RCP 4.5, which is a middle warming
scenario and RCP 8.5, which is a high end warming scenario.
The downscaled version of CMIP 5, which focuses on the variables of max and minimum
temperature and precipitation, makes it simpler to focus on one particular region of the United
States. The chosen grid blocks for the Gilroy Hollister region is latitude 36.93 to 36.93 and
longitude -121.56 to -121.44. Using the data, max and minimum temperature, is isolated an
average over changes in Celsius per year from 2000 to 2050. Similar methods were used to
make the precipitation versus time graph.


Results
On the max temperature graph, we see that all models in the graph show an upward increasing
trend in temperature. The black line represents the model mean. The model mean shows a
0.003 C increase per year up till 2050. All models for RCP 4.5 show max temperatures range
from 21.5 to 23 C. From 2040 to 2050, the temperature ranges from 22.5 to 24.5 C. RCP 8.5
received the same kind results as RCP 4.5 with temperature variations of 0.5 C higher at the end
of 2050.
On the minimum temperature graph, we see the models replicate the max temperature graph.
The model mean shows 0.002 C increase per year up to 2050. All models for RCP 4.5 show
minimum temperature ranges from 6.5 to 8 C. From 2040 to 2050, the range increases from 7.4
to 9.5 C. For RCP 8.5, all models agree closer to the model mean with a steady rise from 7.5 to
8.6 C.
For RCP model 4.5, precipitation ranges from 0.5mm and peaking at 2mm from 2000 to 2050.
From 2000 to 2050, the amount of precipitation fluctuates often, dropping below 1mm and rising
above 1.5mm. For RCP 8.5, the range increases from 0.5mm to 2.1mm. The model mean stays
consistent around 1.2mm. All models fluctuate below 1mm and 1.6mm.
Conclusion
For RCP 4.5 max temperatures, it is expected that there will be a 1 degree Celsius increase for
the next 50 years. Max temperatures range from 21.5 to 23 C. Same results for RCP 8.5.
For RCP 4.5 minimum temperatures show a 0.8 C increase from 2010 to 2050 and for RCP 8.5,
it is a 1.2 C increase from 2010 to 2050.
Precipitation for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 show no discernable trend of increase or decrease. So it cannot
be concluded that precipitation in this area will change over the next 50 years.
















Appendix

Figure 1: the figure on the left show Christopher Ranch with in the Gilroy/Hollister region. Imaged obtained from
google maps (https://www.google.com/maps/place/Hollister,(CA/@36.9157582,-
121.4701429,13595m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x8091f7c9df189c6b:0x70474dec2693ac0). Ride side illustrates
the grid box for the selected area.





Figure 2: Displays annually average Max temperatures for all model RCP 4.5. Y-axis displays Celsius and X-axis
displays years from 2000 -2050.

Figure 3: Displays annually average Max temperatures for all model RCP 8.5. Y-axis displays Celsius and X-axis
displays years from 2000 -2050.

Figure 4: Displays annually average Minimum temperatures for all model RCP 4.5. Y-axis displays Celsius and X-
axis displays years from 2000 -2050.

Figure 5: Displays annually average Minimum temperatures for all model RCP 8.5. Y-axis displays Celsius and X-
axis displays years from 2000 -2050.



Figure 6: Displays annually average precipitation for all model RCP 4.5. Y-axis displays mm/year and X-axis
displays years from 2000 -2050.

Figure 7: Displays annually average precipitation for all model RCP 8.5. Y-axis displays mm/year and X-axis
displays years from 2000 -2050
References
The CMIP5 multi-model ensemble [archive/output/results/od simulations/dataset/]
An overview of various aspects of CMIP5 is provided by:
WCRP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5: Special Issue of the CLIVAR
Exchanges Newsletter, No. 56, Vol. 15, No. 2

The primary reference for experiment design is:
Taylor, K.E., R.J. Stouffer, G.A. Meehl: An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design.
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.

The objectives and strategy for the CMIP5 decadal predictions simulations are summarized in:
Meehl, Gerald A., and Coauthors: Decadal Prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 14671485,
doi:10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1, 2009.

An outline of the strategy for including ESMs in CMIP is outlined in:
Meehl, G.A., and K.A. Hibbard, 2007: A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments
with AOGCMs and ESMs. WCRP Informal Report No. 3/2007, ICPO Publication No. 112,
IGBP Report No. 57, World Climate Research Programme: Geneva, 35 pp.

and
Hibbard, K. A., G. A. Meehl, P. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein (2007): A strategy for climate change
stabilization experiments. EOS, 88, 217, doi:10.1029/2007EO200002

We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled
Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in
Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP the
U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison
provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership
with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.


Table 1
Modeling Center/Group Institute ID Model Name
Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation in
collaboration with the Queensland
Climate Change Centre of
Excellence
CSIRO-QCCCE CSIRO-Mk3.6.0
EC-EARTH consortium EC-EARTH EC-EARTH
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
IPSL
IPSL-CM5A-LR

NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies
NASA GISS GISS-E2-R
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
(MPI-M)
MPI-M MPI-ESM-LR

National Center for Atmospheric
Research
NCAR CCSM4
Met Office Hadley Centre (additional
HadGEM2-ES realizations
contributed by Instituto Nacional de
Pesquisas Espaciais)
MOHC (additional realizations by
INPE)
HadGEM2-ES
The First Institute of Oceanography,
SOA, China
FIO FIO-ESM
National Science Foundation,
Department of Energy, National
Center for Atmospheric Research
NSF-DOE-NCAR CESM1(CAM5
Canadian Centre for Climate
Modelling and Analysis
CCCma CanESM2
Centre National de Recherches
Meteorologiques / Centre Europeen
de Recherche et Formation
Avancees en Calcul Scientifique
CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM5