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2030

EU energy
trends to
2030

2028
2026
2024

2012
2010

2022

2014 2016

2018

2008
UPDATE 2009

2020

EU energy trends to 2030 UPDATE 2009

EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Directorate-General for Energy
in collaboration with Climate Action DG and Mobility and Transport DG

This publication was prepared by the Institute of Communication and Computer Systems of the National Technical University of Athens (ICCS-NTUA), E3M-Lab, Greece, for the Directorate-General for
Energy and the Directorate-General for Climate Action, and represents that organisations views on
energy facts, figures and projections. These views have not been adopted or in any way approved by
the Commission and should not be relied upon as a statement of the Commissions or the DirectorateGenerals views.
Authors (E3M-Lab): Prof. P. Capros, Dr. L. Mantzos, N. Tasios, A. De Vita, N. Kouvaritakis

Legal notice:
The European Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication,
nor does it accept responsibility for any use made thereof.

The manuscript was completed on 4 August 2010.

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Questions on this publication can be addressed to: ener-projections@ec.europa.eu
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2010
ISBN 978-92-79-16191-9
doi:10.2833/21664
European Union, 2010
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Printed in Belgium

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS.......................................................................................................................................6
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................................7
1.

INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
2009 Baseline ..........................................................................................................................................................................................10
Reference scenario................................................................................................................................................................................10

BASELINE 2009 ..........................................................................................................................................................11


2.

MAIN ASSUMPTIONS ............................................................................................................................................................................13


Macroeconomic and demographic Scenario .............................................................................................................................................................. 13
World Fossil Fuel Prices ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 16
Policy assumptions............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 17

Energy Technology Progress ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 20


Further assumptions ........................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21
Discount Rates .......................................................................................................................................................................................21
Degree days ............................................................................................................................................................................................21
Exchange rates........................................................................................................................................................................................21
3.
RESULTS FOR THE BASELINE SCENARIO .............................................................................................................................................22
Short term trends to 2010 and 2015.......................................................................................................................................................................... 22
Economy ..................................................................................................................................................................................................22
Power sector ..........................................................................................................................................................................................22
Implications for Energy Consumption ........................................................................................................................................................................... 23
Impacts for Power Generation ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 27
Impacts on Primary Energy Supply ................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
Impacts on Emissions and RES Indicators................................................................................................................................................................... 32
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 34
REFERENCE SCENARIO ..........................................................................................................................................35
4.

ASSUMPTIONS AND DRIVERS ...............................................................................................................................................................37

Policy assumptions............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 37
Drivers ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 38
5.
RESULTS FOR THE REFERENCE SCENARIO ..........................................................................................................................................39
Implications for Energy Consumption ........................................................................................................................................................................... 39
Impacts on Power Generation ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Impacts on Primary Energy Supply ................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
Impacts on Emissions and RES Indicators................................................................................................................................................................... 46
Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 48
6.
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS....................................................................................................................................................................49
GLOSSARY..................................................................................................................................................................50
APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ...............................................53
APPENDIX 2A: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS .........................................................65
APPENDIX 2B: SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCES AND INDICATORS ...................................................... 123

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE BASELINE 2009 ...................... 17
TABLE 2: GHG EMISSION CHANGES FROM 2005 ............................................................................................................................................ 32
TABLE 3: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO .......... 37
TABLE 4: DETAILS ON GAS USE IN POWER GENERATION ............................................................................................................................. 44

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: GDP GROWTH ...................................................................................................................................................................................14
FIGURE 2: GDP GROWTH PER CAPITA .............................................................................................................................................................15
FIGURE 3: WORLD FOSSIL F UEL PRICES .............................................................................................................................................................16
FIGURE 4: RATIOS OF FOSSIL FUEL PRICES .........................................................................................................................................................16
FIGURE 5: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP ...........................................................................................24
FIGURE 6: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR ...............................................................................................................................................24
FIGURE 7: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN BASELINE 2009 .................................................................................................................................25
FIGURE 8: ENERGY INTENSITY INDICATORS ......................................................................................................................................................25
FIGURE 9: USEFUL ENERGY IN THE SERVICES SECTOR ......................................................................................................................................26
FIGURE 10: IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION ....................................................................................................................................................26
FIGURE 11: IMPACTS ON DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY ......................................................................................................................................27
FIGURE 12: STRUCTURE OF POWER GENERATION ..........................................................................................................................................27
FIGURE 13: STRUCTURE OF RES POWER ...........................................................................................................................................................28
FIGURE 14: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUEL BASED POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION ...............29
FIGURE 15: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION ...........................................................................29
FIGURE 16: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY ......................................................................................................................30
FIGURE 17: IMPACTS ON PRIMARY ENERGY ......................................................................................................................................................31
FIGURE 18: SHARES OF GAS IN ............................................................................................................................................................................31
FIGURE 19: CO2 EMISSIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................32
FIGURE 20: RES INDICATORS ..............................................................................................................................................................................33
FIGURE 21: ETS EMISSIONS AND ALLOWANCES (INCL. PERMISSIBLE USE OF INTERNATIONAL CREDITS) ..................................................38
FIGURE 22: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP ..............................................................................................40
FIGURE 23: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO ...........................................................................................................40
FIGURE 24: IMPACTS ON PASSENGER AND FREIGHT TRANSPORT ..................................................................................................................41
FIGURE 25: IMPACTS ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION ........................................................................................................................................41
FIGURE 26: POWER GENERATION FROM RES ...................................................................................................................................................42
FIGURE 27: POWER GENERATION STRUCTURE ................................................................................................................................................42
FIGURE 28: CAPACITY EXPANSION ....................................................................................................................................................................43
FIGURE 29: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION ........................43
FIGURE 30: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION ...........................................................................44
FIGURE 31: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY ......................................................................................................................45
FIGURE 32: PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS AND NET IMPORTS OF FOSSIL FUELS ..................................................................................45
FIGURE 33: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOSSIL FUEL USE ..............................................................................46
FIGURE 34: CO2 EMISSIONS ................................................................................................................................................................................46
FIGURE 35: CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR ..............................................................................................................................47
FIGURE 36: RES INDICATORS ..............................................................................................................................................................................47
FIGURE 37: DIRECT USE OF RES IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR ......................................................................................................................47

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

ABBREVIATIONS & UNITS

ACEA, JAMA, KAMA

Automobile Manufacturers Associations

bbl

Oil barrel

CCGT

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine

bcm

Billion of cubic meters

CCS

Carbon capture and storage

boe

Barrel of oil equivalent

CDM/JI

Clean Development Mechanism - Joint


Implementation

Gbl

Giga-barrels, or 109 barrels

CHP

Combined heat and power

GW

Giga Watt, or 109 watt

CIS

Commonwealth of Independent States

km

Kilometre

CNG

Compressed Natural Gas

Mb/d

Million barrels per day

COP

Coefficient of Performance

Mbl

Million barrels

DG

Directorate General

MEuro

Million Euro

DG CLIMA

Directorate General for Climate Action

Mt

Million metric tonnes

DG ECFIN

Directorate General for Economic and Financial


Affairs

Mtoe

Million toe

DG ENER

Directorate General for Energy

MW

Mega Watt, or 106 watt

DG MOVE

Directorate General for Mobility and Transport

MWh

Mega Watt Hours, or 106 watt hours

DG TREN

Directorate General for Energy and Transport

pa

per annum

EU

European Union

pkm

Passenger-Kilometre (one passenger


transported a distance of one km)

EU ETS

Emission Trading Scheme

t (tons)

Metric tonne, or 1000 kilogrammes

EU-15

15 Member States of the European Union until 1


May 2004 (Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece,
Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the
Netherlands, Austria, Portugal, Finland, Sweden
and the United Kingdom).

toe

Tonne of oil equivalent, or 107 kilocalories, or


41.86 GJ (Gigajoule)

EU-27

27 Member States of European Union

TWh

Terra Watt-hour, or 1012 watt hours

EUROSTAT

Statistical Office of the European Communities

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

GIC

Gross Inland Consumption

GTL

Gas to Liquids

IEA

International Energy Agency

IPPC

Integrated Pollution Prevention Control

LNG

Liquefied Natural Gas

LPG

Liquefied Petroleum Gas

NM-12

12 Member States that acceded to the EU in 2004


and 2007(Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland,
Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia)

OECD

Organization for Economic Cooperation and


Development

PV

Solar photovoltaic

R&D

Research and Development

RES

Renewable Energy Sources

SUV

Sport-utility vehicle

UN

United Nations

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate


Change

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

INTRODUCTION

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

1.

INTRODUCTION

Introduction

This report is an update of the previous trend scenarios, such as the European energy and transport Trends to 2030 published in 2003 and its 2005 and
2007 updates. Two scenarios, the Baseline 2009
(finalised in December 2009) and the Reference scenario (April 2010) are presented.
The economic context has dramatically changed
since the 2007 Baseline scenario. In autumn 2008
the EU and the global economy entered the steepest
downturn on record since the 1930s. The energy intensive industries experienced considerable drops in
their production, while energy and electricity demand
displayed negative rates of change in 2009. The economic analysts, including official bodies such as the
IMF, OECD and European Commission (DG ECFIN),
published gloomy forecasts about economic activity
and growth. Their medium term and sometimes long
term economic outlooks have been drastically revised
compared to 2007, in order to reflect significantly
lower economic growth.
In addition, legislation that will significantly affect energy demand and production has been adopted at
both the EU (i.e. the Climate and Energy Package
adopted in December 2008 and several energy efficiency measures adopted in 2008 and 2009) and the
national levels. Both the crisis and the new legislation
made imperative the conception of a new energy
baseline scenario.
The report was commissioned by Directorate General
for Energy in collaboration with Directorate General
for Climate Action and Directorate General for Mobility and Transport.

The scenarios were derived with the PRIMES


model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab), supported by
some more specialised models (e.g. GEM-E3
model that has been used for projections for the
value added by branch of activity and PROMETHEUS model that has been deployed for projections of world energy prices). The scenarios are
available for the EU and each of its 27 Member
States simulating the energy balances for future
years under current trends and policies as implemented in the Member States by April 2009.
The PRIMES model is a modelling system that
simulates a market equilibrium solution for energy
supply and demand in the EU27 and its Member
States. The model determines the equilibrium by
finding the prices of each energy form such that
the quantity producers find best to supply matches
the quantity consumers wish to use. The market
equilibrium is for each time period and the simulation is dynamic over time. The model is behavioural but also represents in an explicit and detailed way the available energy demand and supply technologies and pollution abatement technologies. The system reflects considerations
about market economics, industry structure, energy/environmental policies and regulation, which
are conceived so as to influence market behaviour
of energy system agents. The modular structure of
PRIMES reflects a distribution of decision making
among agents that act individually about their
supply, demand, combined supply and demand,
and prices. The market integrating part of
PRIMES subsequently simulates market clearing.
PRIMES is a general purpose model; it is conceived for projections to the future, scenario building and policy impact analysis. It covers a medium
to long-term horizon. Its modular structure allows
either for integrating model use or for partial use.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

INTRODUCTION

2009 Baseline
The Baseline scenario determines the development
of the EU energy system under current trends and
policies; it includes current trends on population and
economic development including the recent economic
downturn and takes into account the highly volatile
energy import price environment of recent years.
Economic decisions are driven by market forces and
technology progress in the framework of concrete
national and EU policies and measures implemented
until April 2009. This includes the ETS and several
energy efficiency measures but excludes the renewable energy target and the non-ETS targets.
These assumptions together with the current statistical situation derived from the Eurostat energy balances represent the starting point for projections
which are presented from 2010 onwards in 5 years'
steps until 2030.

Reference scenario
The Reference scenario is based on the same macroeconomic, price, technology and policy assumptions as the baseline. In addition to the measures reflected in the baseline, it includes policies adopted
between April 2009 and December 2009 and assumes that national targets under the Renewables
directive 2009/28/EC and the GHG Effort sharing decision 2009/406/EC are achieved in 2020.
The Reference scenario, which includes the mandatory emission and energy targets set for 2020, can
serve as a benchmark for policy scenarios with long
term targets.
All numbers included in this report, except otherwise
stated, refer to European Union of 27 Member States.

The Baseline scenario benefited from the comments


of Member States experts from the Energy Economic
Analysts Group. Many comments and pieces of information communicated by the Member States were
accommodated in revising the draft Baseline scenario, while preserving a harmonised approach to EU
energy modelling.
In addition to its role as a trend projection, the Baseline scenario is a benchmark for scenarios on alternative policy approaches or framework conditions (e.g.
higher energy import prices, renewables and climate
policies).

10

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

BASELINE 2009

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

11

BASELINE 2009

12

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

2.

Main Assumptions

Macroeconomic and demographic Scenario


The energy Baseline scenario of 2007 reflected the
optimistic economic growth outlook, prevailing in
2006 and 2007.
The 2009 Baseline scenario builds on macro projections of GDP and population which are exogenous to
the models used. They reflect the recent economic
downturn, followed by sustained economic growth
resuming after 2010. GDP projections for the short
term (2009-2010) mirror economic forecasts from the
European Commission, DG Economic and Financial
Affairs (European Economy, May 2009), which complement the up to date statistics for 2005-2008 from
Eurostat. The medium and long term growth projections follow the "baseline" scenario of the 2009 Ageing Report (European Economy, April 2009).
The Baseline assumes that the recent economic crisis has long lasting effects leading to a permanent
loss in GDP. The recovery from the crisis is not expected to be so vigorous that the current GDP losses
will be compensated. Modelled growth prospects for
2011 and 2012 are also subdued in line with these
trends at around 1% per year. However, economic
recovery enables higher productivity gains, allowing
somewhat faster growth rates from 2013 to 2015.
After 2015, GDP growth rates mirror those of the
2009 Ageing Report. Hence the pattern of the baseline scenario is consistent with the intermediate scenario 2 "sluggish recovery" presented in the Europe
2020 strategy. However, given the recent juncture
characterized by the financial and economic crisis,
there remains uncertainty concerning the mediumterm economic developments. The average EU-27
growth rate for the period 2000-2010 is now only
1.2% per year, while the projected rate for 2010-2020
is recovering to 2.2%, similar to the historical average
growth rate between 1990 and 2000. GDP in 2020 is
thus significantly lower than assumed in the 2007
baseline.
The population projections for EU27 are based on the
EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario (EUROpean

BASELINE 2009

POpulation Projections, base year 2008) from Eurostat, which is also the basis for the 2009 Ageing Report. Population projections are higher compared to
the 2007 PRIMES baseline due to different migration
assumptions.
These projections were used as an input to the multisector and multi-country general equilibrium model
GEM-E3 to develop projections at sectoral level (i.e.
gross value added by branch of activity) while ensuring consistency with the short and long term GDP
and demographic projections of the European Commission (DG ECFIN).
The macroeconomic scenario comprises numerical
projections of GDP (volume), households income,
population and sectoral activity (using gross value
added in volume as a proxy) for 22 sectors, in each
EU Member State. The 22 sectors are divided in 10
energy intensive industries, 6 non energy intensive
industries, 3 service sectors, construction, agriculture
and the energy supply sector (the value added of
which is not used as input to the energy model).
The results show the considerable economic downturn which started in autumn 2008. The reasoning
behind the macroeconomic projection can be summarized as follows:
1. The financial crisis induced a marked deterioration of global economic prospects in the final quarter of 2008. The causes of the vicious recession spiral were the downturn in
asset markets, the reduction in consumers
and businesses confidence accompanied
with increased uncertainty, and the resulting
reduction in bank lending.
2. A credit rationing practice synchronized
worldwide had a detrimental effect for emerging economies through reduction in global
trade (credit facilitation to trade was dramatically decreased). Thus EU exports were
negatively affected.
3. Credit rationing together with increased uncertainty resulted into a slowdown of private
investment in all sectors and lowered households expenditures on durable goods and

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

13

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

higher growth rates compared to a similar


projection carried out before the crisis. Despite this, a permanent loss of GDP and welfare is encountered when considering the entire period from 2008 to 2030.

14

17000

Real GDP (EU27)

billion EUR'05

19000

15000
13000

11000
Baseline 2009

9000

Baseline 2007

7000

5.0%

2029

2027

2025

2023

2021

2019

2017

2015

2013

2011

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

5000

% annual change of real GDP


2000; 3.9%

4.0%

2014; 3.4%
2015; 3.5%

2004; 2.5%

3.0%

2020; 2.1%

2.0%
1.0%

2005; 2.0%

0.0%

2010; 0.3%

-1.0%

-2.0%

Baseline 2009

-3.0%

Baseline 2007

-4.0%

2009; -4.2%
2030

2028

2026

2024

2022

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

-5.0%
2000

as costs of domestically produced goods fall.


The worldwide global trade starts recovering
due to increased credit availability. Thus,
demand is progressively recovering in the
EU, thanks to the contribution of exports, private consumption and investment.
5. The recovery process is accompanied by efficiency and productivity gains in many sectors, also because of the restructuring that
takes place during the recession period. As a
result, growth prospects of the EU are in percentage terms somewhat larger than before
the crisis, albeit for a limited time period.
Based on this logic, the projection displays

21000

1998

ports, the lower private consumption and investment explain the negative effects on
GDP growth rates for the EU Member States.
4. To alleviate the effects of the crisis, extraordinary measures were put in place, including
reduction of basic interest rates, expansion of
money supply and facilitation of credit availability. These measures are expected to remove the effects of credit rationing and reduce the shadow interest rate and so encourage investment and spending on durable
goods and houses. The relatively low levels
of oil and commodity prices compared to the
first half of 2008 facilitate economic growth

FIGURE 1: GDP GROWTH

1996

real estate. The rate of private savings increased, exerting further depressive effects
on consumption. Altogether, the drop of ex-

In the longer term, the EU GDP growth is projected to


slow down to 1.7% per year between 2020 and 2030.
The growth patterns differ by EU Member State: the
Northern and Central Europe are more affected by
the recession and recover more slowly, but stay on a
significant and positive growth pace over the long
term; the new Member States that joined the EU in
2004 and 2007 bear an important recession compared to the high growth experienced over the last
few years, but they recover faster than the EU average, followed by a slowdown in growth rates as they
are progressively converging towards the EU average; Southern economies display a similar growth
pattern but their long term prospects are slightly lower
than those of the new Member States.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

FIGURE 2: GDP GROWTH PER CAPITA


3

Annual avg. growth rate of GDP/capita


Baseline 2007
Baseline 2009

2.5
2
1.5

1
0.5
0
90-95
40000
35000

95-00

00-05

05-10

10-15

15-20

20-25

25-30

GDP/capita
EU27 - EUR'2005

30000
25000
Baseline 2007
Baseline 2009

20000
15000
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

The demographic projection, in accordance with


ECFINs Ageing Report 2009, includes a dynamic
immigration trend which helps keeping positive
growth rates but is not sufficient to sustain higher
growth. Both total population and active population
are assumed to grow at positive, albeit very low,
growth rates over the entire projection period; this
contrasts past scenarios. As for households, per capita income increases at an average rate slightly lower
than 2% per year during the projection period.
In terms of GDP per capita, which has an important
influence on energy projections, driving households
income, the new projection shows lower GDP and
higher population compared to older scenarios. In the
long term, GDP per capita increases (in real terms) at
an average rate below 2% per year. The macroeconomic scenario involves gradual and steady convergence of GDP/capita among the Member States.
Dispersion, notably between the old and the new
Member States, persists in the projection even in the
long term, but the gap is slowly closing.
The assumptions about future economic growth by
sector of activity play an important role in energy projections. As already mentioned 22 sectors are considered. The sectoral outlook can be summarized as
follows:

1. The services sectors are projected to dominate the EUs GDP throughout the projection
period. The services contribute 72% of gross
value added in the EU in 2005 and are projected to contribute 74.7% of the total by
2030.
2. Non energy intensive industries display the
second fastest rate of growth among the sectors and their share is projected to remain
around 13.5% throughout the projection period. The engineering industry, producing
equipment goods, is the dominant industry
within the non energy intensive industrial sector, growing faster than the average. Pharmaceuticals and cosmetics display high
growth in the scenario but their share remains rather low. Food, drink and tobacco
and other industries like wood, rubber and
plastics, show significant dynamism, contrasting textiles which are projected to decline.
3. The energy intensive industry (chemicals,
basic metals, construction materials, pulp
and paper) represent a small share in total
value added (3.4% in 2005). The scenario
assumes that the bulk of industrial activity in
this sector will stay in the EU territory and will
even display a slow but steady growth (0.7%
per year between 2005 and 2030). However
the share of this industry will slightly decline,
reaching 2.65% by 2030. The scenario also
involves restructuring within the processing
and type of products produced by the energy
intensive industry. Gradually, their production
mix is projected to shift towards higher value
added product varieties like special steel,
special ceramics and high quality glass.
These shifts have consequences on energy
consumption and the fuel mix.
4. Chemicals are the fastest growing industry,
among the energy intensive ones. Pharmaceuticals and organic chemistry grow faster
than fertilizers and inorganic chemistry. The
non metallic minerals sector bear considerable slowdown as a result of the recession
period and the reduction in real estate in-

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

15

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

vestment; their recovery is also projected to


be slow. Iron and steel industry is projected
to remain active in the EU taking benefits
from restructuring towards higher use of
scrap material and the production of higher
quality end products as a result of technology
progress.

FIGURE 3: WORLD FOSSIL FUEL PRICES


120.00

Fossil Fuel Prices in Baseline (Constant USD of 2008 per boe)


105.88

100.00
88.41
80.00

76.59
71.88
62.11

60.00
44.18

40.00

29.35

The macro-economic and sectoral projections are


available by Member State.

25.81

20.00

17.22

World Fossil Fuel Prices


The energy projections are based on a relatively high
oil price environment compared with previous projections and are similar to reference projections from
other sources1. The baseline price assumptions for
the EU27 are the result of world energy modelling
(using the PROMETHEUS stochastic world energy
model) that derives price trajectories for oil, gas and
coal under a conventional wisdom view of the development of the world energy system.
International fuel prices are projected to grow over
the projection period with oil prices reaching
88$08/bbl (73 08/bbl) in 2020 and 106$08/bbl (91
08/bbl) in 2030. Gas prices follow a trajectory similar to oil prices reaching 62$08/boe (51 08/boe) in
2020 and 77$08/boe (66 08/boe) in 2030 while coal
prices increase during the economic recovery period
to reach almost 26$08/boe (21 08/boe) in 2020 but
then stabilize at 29$08/boe (25 08/boe) in 2030.2
Figure 3 shows the development of fossil fuel prices
in the Baseline scenario. It shows a constant increase
of prices, but the ratio between the prices is expected
to stay relatively constant in future projections (see
Figure 4).

Oil

Gas (NCV)

Coal

The evolution of the ratio of gas and coal prices can


to a great extent influence the investment choices
taken by investors in the power sector. A relatively
low gas to coal price ratio up to the year 2000, together with the emergence of the gas turbine combined cycle technology, led to investments in gas
fired power plants. The investments decreased afterwards due to significant gas price increases. As the
gas to coal price ratio is projected to remain rather
stable (around 2.5), the investment decision will
highly depend on the carbon price. Any volatility in
the carbon price will lead to high uncertainty for investors in the power sector.
FIGURE 4: RATIOS OF FOSSIL FUEL PRICES
4,5
4,0
Gas to Coal
Price Ratio

3,5
3,0
2,5

2.61

2.57

2,0

1.63

1.38

1,5
1,0

Oil to Gas Price


Ratio

0,5
0,0
1980

16

This refers to energy projections from the US Energy Information


Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The EIA International Energy Outlook 2009 assumed 130
$/barrel in 2007 prices for 2030, equivalent to 134 $/barrel in
2008 prices. The IEA World Energy Outlook 2009 assumed 115
$/barrel in 2008 prices for 2030.

Stability of nominal exchange rates from 2020 onwards (mentioned under point 1.5 on page 24) in the presence of higher US
inflation compared with inflation in the EU implies a decrease in
the real $/ exchange rate that is relevant for this comparison of
real prices; this development reflects also the slowdown of economic growth in the EU due to demographic change (ageing
population).

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

Policy assumptions
The 2009 baseline includes policies and measures
implemented in the Member States by April 2009 and
legislative provisions adopted by April 2009 that are

defined in such a way that there is almost no uncertainty how they should be implemented in the future.
The policies and measures reflected in the baseline
2009 are described in Table 1.

TABLE 1: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE BASELINE 2009
Measure

How the measure is reflected in PRIMES

Regulatory measures
Energy efficiency
Eco-design implementing measures
1

Eco-design Framework Directive


2005/32/EC

Stand-by regulation 2008/1275/EC

Simple Set-to boxes regulation


2009/107/EC

Office/street lighting regulation


2009/245/EC

Household lighting regulation


2009/244/EC

External power supplies regulation


2009/278/EC

Adaptation of modelling parameters for different product groups. As requirements concern only new products, the effect will be gradual (marginal in
2010; rather small in 2015 and up to full effect by 2030). The potential envisaged in the Eco-design supporting studies and the relationship between cost
and efficiency improvements in the model's database were cross-checked.

Other energy efficiency


7

Labelling Directive 2003/66/EC

Enhancing the price mechanism mirrored in the model

Cogeneration Directive 2004/8/EC

National measures supporting cogeneration are reflected

Directive 2006/32/EC on end-use energy efficiency and energy services

National implementation measures are reflected

10

Buildings Directive 2002/91/EC

National measures e.g. on strengthening of building codes and integration of


RES are reflected

11

Energy Star Program (voluntary labelling program)

Enhancing the price mechanism mirrored in the model

Regulatory measures
Energy markets and power generation

12

Completion of the internal energy market (including provisions of the 3rd


package)

The model reflects the full implementation of the Second Internal market
Package by 2010 and Third Internal Market Package by 2015. It simulates
liberalised market regime for electricity and gas (decrease of mark-ups of
power generation operators; third party access; regulated tariffs for infrastructure use; producers and suppliers are considered as separate companies) with optimal use of interconnectors

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

17

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

The ETS carbon price is modelled so that the cumulative cap set for GHGs
3
covered by the ETS is respected . The permissible total CDM amount over
2008-2020 is conservatively estimated at 1600 Mt. Banking of allowances is
reflected. The model endogenously calculates carbon prices clearing the
ETS market that allow to match cumulative emissions over the period 20082030 with cumulative allowances assuming the maximum permissible use of
CDMs. Resulting carbon prices in the baseline 2009 are: 25 08/t CO2eq in
2020 and 39 '08/t CO2eqin 2030.

13

EU ETS directive 2003/87/EC as


amended by Directive 2008/101/EC
and Directive 2009/29/EC

14

Energy Taxation Directive 2003/96/EC

Tax rates (EU minimal rates or higher national ones) are kept constant in
real term. The modelling reflects the practice of MS to increase tax rates
above the minimum rate due to i.e. inflation.

15

Large Combustion Plant directive


2001/80/EC

Emission limit values laid down in part A of Annexes III to VII in respect of
sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and dust are respected. Some existing
power plants had a derogation which provided them with 2 options to comply
with the Directive: either to operate only a limited number of hours or to be
upgraded. The model selected between the two options on a case by case
basis. The upgrading is reflected through higher capital costs.

16

IPPC Directive 2008/1/EC

Costs of filters and other devices necessary for compliance are reflected in
the parameters of the model

17

Directive on the geological storage of


CO2 2009/31/EC

Enabling measure allowing economic modelling to determine CCS penetration

18

Directive on national emissions' ceilings for certain pollutants 2001/81/EC

PRIMES model takes into account results of RAINS/GAINS modelling regarding classical pollutants (SO2, NOx). Emission limitations are taken into
account bearing in mind that full compliance can also be achieved via additional technical measures in individual MS.

19

Water Framework Directive


2000/60/EC

Hydro power plants in PRIMES respect the European framework for the
protection of all water bodies as defined by the Directive

20

Landfill Directive 99/31/EC

Provisions on waste treatment and energy recovery are reflected

Transport

21

Regulation on CO2 from cars


2009/443/EC

Limits on emissions from new cars: 135 gCO 2/km in 2015, 115 in 2020, 95 in
2025 in test cycle. The 2015 target should be achieved gradually with a
compliance of 65% of the fleet in 2012, 75% in 2013, 80% in 2014 and finally
100% in 2015. Penalties for non-compliance are dependent on the number
of grams until 2018; starting in 2019 the maximum penalty is charged from
the first gram.

22

Regulation EURO 5 and 6


2007/715/EC

Emission limits introduced for new cars and light commercial vehicles

23

Fuel Quality Directive 2009/30/EC

Modelling parameters reflect the Directive, taking into account the uncertainty related to the scope of the Directive addressing also parts of the energy chain outside the area of PRIMES modelling (e.g. oil production outside
EU).

24

Biofuels directive 2003/30/EC

Support to biofuels such as tax exemptions and obligation to blend fuels is


reflected in the model The requirement of 5.75% of all transportation fuels to
be replaced with biofuels by 2010 has not been imposed as the target is

For the allocation regime for allowances in 2010, the current system based on National Allocation Plans and essentially cost-free al-

lowances is assumed, with price effects stemming from different investment and dispatch patterns triggered by need to submit allowances. For the further time periods, in the power sector there will be a gradual introduction of full auctioning, which will be fully applic able from 2020 onwards, in line with the specifications of the amended ETS directive.
For the other sectors (aviation and industry), the baseline follows a conservative approach which reflects the specifications in the directive on the evolution of auctioning shares and the provisions for free allocation for energy intensive sectors based on bench marking.

18

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

indicative. Support to biofuels is assumed to continue. The biofuel blend is


assumed to be available on the supply side.

25

Implementation of MARPOL Convention ANNEX VI - 2008 amendments revised Annex VI

Amendment of Annex VI of the MARPOL Convention reduce sulphur content


in marine fuels which is reflected in the model by a change in refineries output

Financial support
TEN-E guidelines (Decision
1364/2006)

The model takes into account all TEN-E realised infrastructure projects

27

European Energy programme for Recovery (Regulation 2009/663/EC)

Financial support to CCS demonstration plants; off-shore wind and gas and
electricity interconnections is reflected in the model. For modelling purposes
the following amounts for CCS power plants were assumed, following assumptions of summer 2009: Germany: 950 MW (450MW coal postcombustion, 200MW lignite post-combustion and 300MW lignite oxy-fuel),
Italy 660 MW (coal post-combustion), Netherlands 1460 MW (800MW coal
post-combustion, 660MW coal integrated gasification pre-combustion), Spain
500 MW (coal oxy-fuel), UK 3400 MW (1600MW coal post-combustion,
1800MW coal integrated gasification pre-combustion), Poland 896 MW
(306MW coal post-combustion, 590MW lignite post-combustion).

28

RTD support (7 framework programme- theme 6)

Financial support to R&D for innovative technologies such as CCS, RES,


nuclear and energy efficiency is reflected by technology learning and
economies of scale leading to cost reductions of these technologies

28

State aid Guidelines for Environmental


Protection and 2008 Block Exemption
Regulation

Financial support to R&D for innovative technologies such as CCS, RES,


nuclear and energy efficiency is reflected by technology learning and
economies of scale leading to cost reductions of these technologies

29

Cohesion Policy ERDF, ESF and


Cohesion Fund

Financial support to national policies on energy efficiency and renewables is


reflected by facilitating and speeding up the uptake of energy efficiency and
renewables technologies.

26

th

National measures
30

Strong national RES policies

National policies on e.g. feed-in tariffs, quota systems, green certificates,


subsidies and other cost incentives are reflected
Nuclear, including the replacement of plants due for retirement, is modelled
on its economic merit and in competition with other energy sources for power
generation except for MS with legislative provisions on nuclear phase out.
Several constraints are put on the model such as decisions of Member
States not to use nuclear at all (Austria, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Greece,
Ireland, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta and Portugal) and closure of existing
plants in some new Member States according to agreed schedules (Bulgaria
1760 MW, Lithuania 2600 MW and Slovakia 940 MW).
The nuclear phase-out in Belgium and Germany is respected while lifetime of
nuclear power plants was extended to 60 years in Sweden.

31

Nuclear

Nuclear investments are possible in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, France,


Finland, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. For
modelling the following plans on new nuclear plants were taken into account:
Bulgaria (1000 MW by 2020 and 1000 MW by 2025), Finland (1600 MW by
2015), France (1600 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020), Lithuania (800
MW by 2020 and 800 MW by 2025), Romania (706 MW by 2010, 776 MW by
2020 and 776 MW by 2025), Slovakia (880 MW by 2015).
Member States experts were invited to provide information on new nuclear
investments/programmes in spring 2009 and commented on the PRIMES
baselines results in summer 2009, which had a significant impact on the
modelling results for nuclear capacity.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

19

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

Energy Technology Progress


The 2009 Baseline, takes into account energy efficiency gains, penetration of new technologies and
renewables, as well as changes in the energy mix
driven by relative prices and costs. Implemented policies to promote energy efficiency, renewables and
new technologies, as well as market trends bring
about energy intensity improvements and energy
technology changes. The technology portfolio in the
PRIMES 2009 baseline includes the following:

End-use energy efficiency (thermal integrity


of buildings, lighting, electric appliances, motor drives, heat pumps, etc.)

Renewable energy in centralized and decentralized power generation, in direct heating


and cooling applications, as well as for blending with gasoline or diesel oil

Supercritical coal plants, advanced gas combined cycle plants and CHP

CO2 carbon capture and storage (CCS)

Nuclear energy (generation III and III+)

Advanced transmission and distribution grids


and smart metering

Plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles, both for


passenger and freight road transportation

Improvements in conventional engines in


transport

Although the technologies in the portfolio are known


today, the assumed evolution of their technical and
economic characteristics presupposes that substantial industrial research and demonstration takes place
before deployment at a wide scale.
The modelling also assumes that learning curves apply by technology, thus reflecting decreasing costs
and increasing performances as a function of cumula-

20

Energy efficiency gains are driven by microeconomic


decisions, reflecting the aim of minimizing costs and
maximizing economic benefits in the context of public
policies that promote energy efficiency. Similarly, renewables and CHP development are driven by private economic considerations taking into account
supportive policies which are assumed to continue in
the scenarios and gradually decrease in the longer
term. Therefore market forces and least cost considerations drive the development of renewables and
cogeneration of heat and power taking into account a
continuation of support schemes.
The technical-economic characteristics of existing
and new energy technologies used in the demand
and the supply sectors of the energy system evolve
over time and improve according to exogenously
specified trends. Following the logic developed in the
Baseline 2007, consumers and suppliers are generally hesitant to adopt new technologies before they
become sufficiently mature. They behave as if they
perceive a higher cost (a higher subjective discount
rate) when deciding upon adoption of new technologies.
Public policies, through campaigns, industrial policy,
R&D support and other means, aim at pushing more
rapid adoption of new technologies by removing uncertainties associated with their use. In this way, the
technologies themselves reach maturity more rapidly
as a result of learning-by-doing effects and economies of scale. To take into account supportive policies for the adoption of technologies with higher energy efficiency, the perception of the technologies by
the consumers is modified.
Nevertheless, agents do adopt new technologies just

tive production. The steepness of the learning curve


differs by technology, depending on their current
stage of maturity.

because they aim at reducing the costs of energy


services. This process is also supported by the EU
and national energy technology research programmes complementing similar policies of the

For power generation technologies the Baseline 2009


takes an optimistic view about the future, without assuming any breakthrough in technology development.
All power technologies known today are projected to
improve in terms of unit cost and efficiency.

Member States promoting new and cleaner technologies. GDP growth is therefore associated with continuous improvement of energy intensity, in addition
to the effects from structural change in the economy.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

The deployment of some of the new technologies


depends on the development of new infrastructures
and regulations, which are state-driven. This is the

risk premium rates are applied for some new technologies at their early stages of development.

case for CCS regarding the transportation and storage of captured CO2 and for the electrification of
transportation which depends on TSOs and DSOs
undertaking grid and control systems investments.
For CCS, the scenarios assume that the infrastructure and the regulations will deploy and become operational after 2020. For the electrification of transportation, the scenarios presented in this report assume that the development pace will be slow and so
electrification of transportation will not show up before
the end of the projection period (2030).

More specifically, for large power and steam genera-

Further assumptions
Discount Rates
The PRIMES model is based on individual decision
making of agents demanding or supplying energy and
on price-driven interactions in markets. The modelling
approach is not taking the perspective of a social
planner and does not follow an overall least cost optimization of the energy system. Therefore, social
discount rates play no role in determining model solutions though they can be used for ex post cost
evaluations.
On the other hand discount rates pertaining to individual agents play an important role in their decision
behaviour. Agents economic decisions are usually
based on the concept of cost of capital, which is depending on the sector - weighted average cost of
capital (for firms) or subjective discount rate (for individuals). In both cases, the rate used to discount future costs and revenues involves a risk premium
which reflects business practices, various risk factors
or even the perceived cost of lending. The discount
rate for individuals also reflects an element of risk
averseness.

tion companies the cost of capital increases from


8.2% in 2005 to 9.0% for 2015-2030. For small companies the cost of capital is 9.5% in 2005 and 10.5%
in 2015 2030. In industry, services and agriculture
the discount rate amounts to 12% for the whole projection period. Households have an even higher discount rate of 17.5%. For transport, the discount rate
depends on the type of operator. Private passenger
transport investments (e.g. for cars) are based on a
discount rate of 17.5%, while for trucks and inland
navigation the rate is 12%. Public transport energy
investment is simulated with an assumed discount
rate of 8% reflecting the acceptance of longer payback periods than those required in industry or private households. All these rates are in real terms, i.e.
after deducting inflation.
Degree days
The degree days, reflecting climate conditions, are
kept constant at the 2000 level, which is higher than
the long term average without assuming any trend
towards further warming. The degree days in 2000
were fairly similar to the ones in 2005. This allows
comparison of recent statistics with the projection
figures, without entailing the need for climate correction.
Exchange rates
All monetary values are expressed in constant terms
of 2005 (without inflation). The dollar exchange rate
for current money changes over time; it starts at the
value of 1.45$/ in 2009 and is assumed to decrease
to 1.25 $/ by 2020 and to remain at that level for the
remaining period.

The discount factors vary across sectors and may


differ substantially from social discount rates (such as
4-5%) which are used in social long-term planning.
For the scenarios, the discount factors assumed
range from 8% (in real terms) applicable to large utilities up to 17.5% applicable to individuals. Additional

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

21

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

3.

Results for the Baseline scenario

The Baseline scenario includes all policies that have


been implemented until April 2009. This pertains in
particular to ETS and a number of energy efficiency
measures. It is not assumed that the renewable energy targets and the non-ETS obligations will be
achieved given that implementation has not yet been
completed.
ETS is modelled in such a way that ETS emissions plus limited use of CDM credits- just meet the cumulative ETS cap in 2008-2030. This gives rise to carbon prices clearing the ETS market at 25 08/t CO2
in 2020 and 39 /t in 2030 (endogenously calculated).
These prices allow cumulative CO2 emissions from
ETS sectors to match cumulative allowances until
2030 as provided for in the ETS Directive taking into
account that in baseline context economic actors
would use the maximum permissible amount of CDM.

Short term trends to 2010 and 2015


The model is used to make projections also for the
year 2010 because the complete energy statistics
available in 2009 were only up to the year 2007. Care
was taken to constrain the projection for the year
2010 so as to take into account any existing information about the energy consumption trends and investments. The baseline 2009 and reference scenarios therefore differ only slightly in the trends towards
2015, as the trends are mainly determined by the
system inertia and investment decisions taken in the
past. Compared to previous projections there are
substantial differences due to the influence of the
economic crisis and the implementation of energy
efficiency policies in both scenarios.
Economy
The economic growth slowdown combined with the
new policies implemented until spring 2009 is reflected into the new Baseline scenario. This explains
the significant differences in results between the 2009
Baseline (and the Reference scenario), on the one
hand, and the 2007 Baseline, on the other, regarding
the evolution of the EU energy system.

22

The effects of the economic crisis on primary energy


requirements are noticeable in the short run: the crisis implies less economic activity and consumption,
hence lower energy consumption but at the same
time it implies a slower pace in investment and capital
turnover. As energy productivity progress is mostly
embedded in new capital vintages, the slowdown in
equipment renewal implies a slowdown in energy efficiency progress. Thus the baseline projects energy
intensity improvement as low as 0.9% pa between
2000 and 2010, significantly down from 1.3% pa as
projected in the 2007 Baseline scenario.
Power sector
The economic downturn and the energy efficiency
policies included in the scenario analysis cause lower
electricity demand than previously anticipated. Nevertheless, in addition to power plants to meet still increasing electricity demand, new power plants are
needed to replace the obsolete ones and to substitute
the ones not complying with the environmental regulations.
The changes in the ETS influence the power sector
decisions: as the allowances will decrease over time
some of the older power investment plans may be
reconsidered.
For 2010 the fossil fuel power plant operating capacity is estimated at approx. 455GW (net) and nuclear
capacity at 127GW (net). Coal and lignite account for
42% of the capacity and natural gas combined cycles
for 26%; the remaining capacity is divided between
open cycle and peak load gas and oil power plants.
The generation park in 2015 is mainly determined
through power plants under construction or under
confirmed planning. Most new power plants will be
natural gas fired power plants using the gas turbine
combined cycle technology (GTCC). Additionally it is
assumed that the planned investment for the construction of 5.4GW coal and lignite power plants with
CCS will go ahead and that these will be operating by
2020. The short term trends, based on power plants
under construction or under confirmed planning,
show a decrease in nuclear and coal power capacities, a significant investment in Gas Turbine Com-

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

bined Cycle technology and an impressive development of RES projects.

favours less consumption and more emission reduction. Although the achievement of RES targets is not
imposed in the Baseline of 2009, the ongoing invest-

Implications for Energy Consumption

ments, subsidy schemes and other facilitation infrastructures, which are being developed in the Member
States, are included in the scenario; thus RES deploys significantly more than in the Baseline of 2007,
as driven both by the RES promoting policies and the
relatively high ETS carbon prices.

The economic downturn, as explained above, implies


in the short term less economic activity and consumption. This causes a reduction of energy consumption,
but also a reduced investment and capital turnover
which slows energy efficiency progress.
The economic recovery period implies a faster pace
in equipment renewing, hence acceleration of energy
efficiency progress takes place. But since the new
Baseline scenario includes important new legislation
aiming at higher energy efficiency, notably for energy
in buildings as well as for cars, lighting and electric
appliances, the energy efficiency improvement process further accelerates during the economic recovery
period which coincides with the implementation of the
new legislation. So, in the medium term, beyond
2010, energy efficiency progress (owing to new policies implemented) offsets the effects of GDP growth
on energy demand and thus primary energy requirements stabilise, contrasting the increasing trends projected in the Baseline of 2007. Primary energy requirements in the 2009 Baseline are projected to become 7.4% lower in 2020 and 10% lower in 2030
than in the 2007 Baseline.

Driven by the above mentioned policies and also because of the crisis, the new projection shows energy
related CO2 emissions declining continuously in the
Baseline 2009 scenario until 2030. The reduction at-

The Baseline of 2009 also includes significant new

The graphics in Figure 5 display a considerable decoupling of both energy consumption and carbon
emissions from GDP growth. Although the Baseline
2009 does not include all the policy targets of the
Climate and Energy package but only the policies
implemented by spring 2009, the new projections
show a remarkable turnaround of past trends, contrasting the Baseline of 2007.

carbon emission reduction policies, notably the EU


ETS and important bottom-up policies adopted by the
Member States for promoting RES. The EU ETS involves the auctioning of emission allowances after
2013 (with some exemptions for new Member States
until 2020); hence electricity prices increase in the
Baseline 2009 reflecting the additional costs from

tains 8.4% in 2020 from 1990 levels and 21.8% in


2030 (contrasting an increase in CO2 emissions, by
5.1% in 2020 and 5.4% in 2030 shown in the 2007
Baseline). The carbon capture technology and the
carbon transport and underground storage infrastructure are assumed to develop and become gradually
technologically and commercially mature after 2020,
when the first demonstration CCS plants start to be
commissioned. The development of CCS post 2020
depends on the ETS carbon prices. The Baseline
2009 findings show that carbon prices especially
close to 2030 are likely to allow CCS expansion, on a
market basis. Hence, CCS also contributes to emission reduction in the power generation sector.

auctioning, adding a price effect on demand which

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

23

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

Regarding the relationship between


energy consumption and GDP the
graphic shows that the Baseline 2009

FIGURE 5: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP


4500

2100

1900
2005
1800

1700
GIC baseline
2007
1600

GIC baseline
2009

CO2 Emissions from energy (MtCO2)

Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)

4300
2000

4100

3700
3500

3300
3100

CO2 baseline
2007

2900

CO2 baseline
2009

2700
2500

1500

9.0

9.2

9.4
9.6
Log of GDP

9.8

9.0

0.50

Baseline
2009
% change
per year

9.2

-0.50

-1.50

-1.50

-2.00

-2.00

'90-'00
-0.93

-1.77

'00-'10
-0.45

-0.95

'10-'20
-0.42

-1.84

'20-'30

Total final energy demand is projected


to increase slightly by 4% between
2005 and 2030. Compared to the precrisis Baseline of 2007 with less energy

-0.50

-1.00

GIC/GDP
(toe/MEuro'05)

9.8

0.00

-1.00

Carbon intensity
(tCO2/toe of GIC)

9.4
9.6
Log of GDP

0.50

Baseline
2007
% change
per year

0.00

-2.50

-2.50

'90-'00

'00-'10

'10-'20

'20-'30

-1.49

Carbon intensity
(tCO2/toe of GIC)

-0.94

-0.35

0.03

-0.16

-1.79

GIC/GDP
(toe/MEuro'05)

-1.76

-1.32

Based on this, the new Baseline should not be qualified as a business as usual scenario. A business as
usual scenario would not display the decoupling of
energy and carbon growth to the extent of the new
baseline scenario and would have results that are
more similar to the 2007 Baseline results. In Figure 5
the comparison between the Baselines 2007 and
2009 is shown.

policy measures included this means


16% less final energy consumption in
2030.

Figure 6 shows that energy demand


growth is pretty small in all sectors,
even in transport reflecting among
other things the CO2 from Cars Regulation. Demand
growth for buildings (households and services) is
smaller than for industry and transport.
-1.72

-1.55

FIGURE 6: FINAL ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR


1400

Mtoe

Transport

1200
1000

The upper part of Figure 5 shows the projected relationship between total primary energy requirements in
the EU27 (left hand side graphic), energy related
CO2 emissions (right hand side graphic) and the
logarithm of GDP. The effect of the economic crisis is
obvious as a significant downturn in both graphics.

Services Agriculture

800
600
400

Residential

Rest of Industry

200
0

24

projection is by no means a continuation of past trends contrasting the


Baseline 2007 scenario. Regarding
emissions, the graphic shows a GDP
decarbonisation pathway, which although falling short of what is needed
for climate change mitigation - is
clearly bending downwards contrasting
the trend expressed by the Baseline
2007 scenario.

2005

3900

Energy Intensive
industry

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

Similarly, policies for buildings, appliances


and lighting accelerate progress of energy
efficiency in houses and buildings implying
larger effects in terms of energy savings for
heating and cooling uses (8% in 2020 and

Transport
sector
Heating & Appliances
Cooling
& Lighting

The CO2 from Cars Regulation and other


structural changes reflected in Baseline
2009 imply considerable savings in the
transport sector, especially close to 2030
(18% compared to 2007 Baseline).

Mtoe Energy Savings in


Baseline 2009

% Energy Savings in Baseline 2009

18

from Base 2007

from Base 2007

2030

2020

44

1
3

14

from Base 2007

from Base 2007

84

10

from Base 2007

Industry

the term energy savings for the projected


demand reductions, which are due both to
the crisis and the energy efficiency measures included in the Baseline 2009.

FIGURE 7: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN BASELINE 2009

Final energy

Figure 7 compares final energy demand


projections of the Baseline 2009 scenario to
projections of the Baseline 2007 and uses

BASELINE 2009

59

35
11

42

35
13

189

9
0

119

10

15

20

25 0

50

100

150

200

14% in 2030 compared to 2007 Baseline).

FIGURE 8: ENERGY INTENSITY INDICATORS


Industry (Energy on Value added)

Transport (Energy on GDP)

0.00

0.00

-0.50

-0.50

% change per year

% change per year

Regarding appliances and lighting, the


changes in the 2009 Baseline from the
2007 Baseline are rather small. Energy efficiency improvements from eco-design
measures are somewhat masked by
stronger increase of population living in
more households than foreseen in the 2007
Baseline.

-1.00
-1.50
-2.00

-1.00
-1.50
-2.00

Baseline 2007

For industry, the lower 2009 Baseline en-

-2.50

ergy demand projections (11% less than in


the pre-crisis baseline in 2030) are mainly
due to the effects from lower economic
growth.

-3.00
'00-'10

'10-'20

'20-'30

'90-'00

'20-'30

0.00

% change per year

% change per year

'10-'20

-0.50

-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50

'00-'10

Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

Residential (Energy on Private


Income)

-0.50

Figure 8 shows the projection of energy intensity indicators by sector for the Baseline
scenario compared to previous projections
for the Baseline 2007.

Baseline 2009

-3.00
'90-'00

0.00

Baseline 2007
-2.50

Baseline 2009

Baseline 2007

-1.00
-1.50
-2.00

Baseline 2007

-2.50

Baseline 2009

Baseline 2009
-3.00

-3.00
'90-'00

'00-'10

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

'10-'20

'20-'30

'90-'00

'00-'10

'10-'20

'20-'30

25

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

Energy efficiency in the residential and tertiary sectors can be improved by using better energy equipment (e.g. lighting, electric appliances, heating and
cooling appliances), by improvements of buildings
(e.g. thermal integrity of buildings) or by inducing
changes in behaviour. In the Baseline 2009 scenario,
for the residential and the services sector there is a
general improvement in the energy efficiency of energy using equipment across the EU. This can be
brought back to the effects of the implementation of
the Eco-Design and Labelling Directives, which are
applied in all Member States.
National policies are nonetheless taken into consideration. In the services sector the energy efficiency
improvements are not sufficient to counteract the increase in absolute terms of useful energy demand,
which continues rising.

FIGURE 9: USEFUL ENERGY IN THE SERVICES SECTOR


280

Growth Rates p.a. 2000-2030

Index 2000=100

260

Cooling
Electric uses
Value added
Heat Uses

240
220

Baseline Baseline
2009
2007
3.14%
3.9%
3.12%
3.2%
1.91%
2.2%
0.19%
0.8%

200
180

cooling
electric uses
value added
heating

160
140

120
100
2000

2010

2020

2030

Energy efficiency improvements not related to energy


equipment are more difficult to bring back to a specific element as there are several influencing factors
such as increase in comfort levels (which generally
increase energy use) or other behavioural change,
influenced by public campaigns.

FIGURE 10: IMPACTS ON TRANSPORTATION


Baseline 2009:
Energy and Activity in Transportation
GDP

200
180

Energy for
Passenger
transportation
Freight transport
activity

140
120

Energy for Freight


transportation

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

100

350

90%
80%

300
291

70%
60%
211

50%

165

40%
30%
20%
10%

0%
2005

26

2020

2030

CO2 g/km

100%

Baseline 2007

200

Passenger
transport activity

160

220

180
160

140
120
100
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

220

Electric

Plug-in hybrids

250

Hybrid vehicles

200

ICE vehicles

CO2 intensity (right


axis)
2020 2030
100 Fuel Mix Cars
Petroleum Fuels 92.8% 91.1%
50 Biofuels
6.6% 8.3%
Electricity
0.0% 0.0%
0
Natural Gas
0.6% 0.6%
150

The 2009 Baseline takes a conservative view regarding the possible


changes in transport sector fuel mix:
hybrid vehicles make significant inroads, but grid electricity is not penetrating the transport market; biofuels
develop according to currently implemented policies (however not delivering the 10% target for RES in transport
from the RES Directive).
The transport sector exhibits the highest energy savings in comparison to
the 2007 Baseline. This is due to a less
pronounced growth of transport activity
as a result of lower GDP growth and to
the effects of new policy measures included in the 2009 Baseline).

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

FIGURE 11: IMPACTS ON DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY


Final and Energy Branch Net
Electricity Demand (TWh)
4000
3800

Impacts for Power Generation


As shown in Figure 12, the fuel mix in power generation also exhibits significant changes in comparison to
the 2007 Baseline owing to the effects of the EU ETS
carbon prices which increase the cost of fossil fuels.
In addition more pronounced promoting policies for

Electricity Share in Final


Energy Demand (%)
30.0

Baseline
2007

3600
3400

25.0

Baseline
2009

22.5
22.5
20.2

20.0

3200

24.9
23.2

renewables pursued now in the Member States bring


in more RES compared to the Baseline 2007.

17.2

3000

15.0

2800

In the new context of the EU ETS system, the model


projects a significant decrease in coal/lignite generation, which accounts for 22.2% of total electricity generation in 2030 in the Baseline 2009, 9 percentage
points down from the 2007 Baseline, despite signifi-

10.0

2600
2400

5.0
2200

0.0

2000

1990

2005

2020

2030

cant penetration of CCS in the new scenario. Gasbased generation increases slightly from current levels in volume terms, but looses market share. The
prospects for further penetration of gas based electricity generation are modest in Baseline 2009 contrasting past expectations. Nevertheless, the simulation of the power system reveals that gas will have to
play a crucial role for balancing purposes, as according to these new projections more intermittent RES
power operate (18.5% in 2030, significantly up from
5.6% in 2010). 5

The economic crisis and the new efficiency policies


included in the Baseline 2009 induce a significant
slowdown of demand for electricity with cumulative
electricity sales (2005-2030) being some 7% lower
compared to the 2007 Baseline (see Figure 11).
However, electrification in final energy demand continues to be a dominant trend with the share of electricity in final energy demand reaching 24.9% in 2030
(from 23.2% in the 2007 Baseline). Electrification
could further intensify if electricity also penetrated in
transportation

FIGURE 12: STRUCTURE OF POWER GENERATION


Baseline 2009: Gross Power Generation by source
in TWh

Baseline 2007: Gross Power Generation by


source in TWh

4000

4000
RES

3000

3000

Oil

2000

Gas

2000

1000

Solids

1000

Nuclear

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030


14.3
21.2
30.0
30.5

2005

Baseline 2009: Shares in %


19.2
26.0
23.9
22.8
26.9
24.9
28.0
24.5

2010

2020

32.1
18.7
22.2
25.9

14.3
21.2
30.0

2030

2005

30.5

Baseline 2007: Shares in %


17.4
20.2
24.2
26.2
28.8
30.4
26.7
21.2

2010

2020

22.8
24.6
31.2
19.8

2030

Final energy demand sectors and energy branch net electricity


demand includes consumption of electricity by final consumers and
the energy branch; it excludes transmission and distribution losses,
as well as own consumption by power plants.

Intermittent resources are: wind (on-shore and off-shore), solar


and tidal/wave. The shares are related to net electricity generation.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

27

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

FIGURE 13: STRUCTURE OF RES POWER


1400

Baseline 2009: Gross Power Generation


by RES in TWh

1200

1200

1000

1000

800

800

600

600

400

400

200

200

2005

Tidal, etc.
0
Geothermal
5
Biomass/waste 84
Solar
1
Wind offshore
2
Wind onshore
68
Hydro
307

2010
0
6
127
17
14
147
323

2015
1
6
164
32
72
197
332

2020
3
7
191
46
146
253
339

2025
6
11
218
60
204
316
349

2030
9
19
241
75
276
368
355

Baseline 2007: Gross Power Generation


by RES in TWh

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Tidal, etc.
0
Geothermal
8
Biomass/waste 102
Solar
1
Wind offshore
0
Wind onshore
70
Hydro
307

0
8
133
4
9
136
333

0
8
145
6
13
189
329

2
8
196
9
24
247
336

3
9
235
13
36
279
345

5
9
282
17
46
296
351

Nuclear energy remains roughly stable relative to current levels over the projection period, as new nuclear
plants are commissioned in some countries while decommissioning takes place either because of age or

The bulk of the increase in RES power (see Figure


13) corresponds to the deployment of wind onshore,
the rising investment in offshore wind and the considerable development of solar photovoltaics. Other

because of the phase-out which reflects the policies


pursued in Germany and Belgium when the Baseline
modelling was undertaken. The nuclear shares in
Baseline 2009 are higher than in Baseline 2007, because of the ETS prices which drive higher nuclear
investment and the revival of nuclear programs in the
UK as well as the new nuclear investment foreseen in

forms of RES power also emerge, such as concentrated solar thermal and tidal/wave energy. Wind and
the other RES are facilitated by assumed expansion
of grids and new equipment for controlling grid operation, which entail additional costs that show up in the
electricity prices.

Italy and Poland.

Biomass and waste energy combustion for power


generation develop significantly in the Baseline 2009
scenario, both in pure biomass plants (usually of relatively small size) and in co-firing applications in solid
fuel plants. Biomass and waste input to power generation is projected to more than double in 2030 from
current levels. The use of biomass and waste energy
is wide-spread in CHP applications.

Renewable power generation makes impressive inroads in the 2009 Baseline scenario. Already in 2020,
RES power gets the largest market share in total
power generation (26.0% from 20.2% in the 2007
Baseline) and is projected to account for almost one
third of total generation in 2030 (9.2 percentage
points above 2007 Baseline levels).

28

1400

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

The increase in RES in the


scenario compared to previous projections requires a
higher amount of gas fired
power plants to cope with
the higher amount of intermittent energy sources. Although the absolute amount
of gas used in the Baseline
scenario diminishes, the
share of gas fired power
plants in fossil fuel power
generation increases (see
Figure 14).

BASELINE 2009

FIGURE 14: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUEL BASED POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL
FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION
Share of Gas in Fossil Fuel based
Power Generation (%)

Fossil Fuels in Power Generation


(Mtoe)

48

500
480
460
440
420
400
380
360
340
320
300

46
44
42

40
38
36

34
Baseline 2009
Baseline 2007

2005

2020

2030

38.4
40.3

46
44.7

44.4
42.8

Baseline 2009
Baseline 2007

2005

2020

2030

394
392

384
425

344
416

The share of electricity produced by CHP plants


(normalized according to the standards of the CHP
directive) attains a level around 17.5% throughout the
period from 2015 until 2030, significantly up from
11.7% in 2005.

The EU ETS carbon prices, reaching 39 08/tCO2 in


2030, drive CCS investment: from 5.4 GW (CCS
demonstration plants) in 2020 CCS capacity increases to 35 GW in 2030. The share of CCS generation in total power generation is 8.7% by 2030,
when 23.6% of CO2 emissions from power generation
are projected to be captured and sequestrated.

The above changes in the fuel mix of power generation with the penetration of carbon free sources imply
a steady decrease in carbon intensity of power generation: the average emission of CO2 per MWh produced halves in 2030 compared to 2005; this trend
could not be displayed in the Baseline 2007.

Cogeneration develops significantly in the new Baseline scenario, driven by new policies supporting CHP
(including the cogeneration directive) and the ETS
prices.

FIGURE 15: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION
Carbon Intensity of
Power Generation (tCO2/MWh)
0.40
0.35
0.30
0.25

Efficiency for Thermal Electricity


Production (%)

40.8

0.381

23.1

41.2 41.4

40.1
39.3
38.5

0.360
0.316

37.6

8.9

0.297
0.274

2.7

0.236

0.20

0.179

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

% of Electricity from CHP

% of Electricity from CCS

17.4 17.6 17.9 17.5

0.15
0.10

% of CO2 Emissions Captured

8.7

15.1

Baseline 2007
Baseline 2009

11.4 11.7
3.7

0.05

1.4

0.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

29

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

FIGURE 16: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY


billion
500

250

Baseline 2009: Structure of Electricity Costs

450

Baseline 2009:
After tax Electricity Prices in EUR/MWh

Gross Sales margin

400
350

Tax on Fuels and


Auction
Fuel and variable

300

250

200

200

Grid

150

150

100

Capital and O&M

50
0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

100

Baseline 2009: Pre-tax price of electricity


in EUR/MWh

91.8
10.5

119.7
11.6
11.3

123.9
11.7
11.8

Gross Sales margin

38.9

40.3

9.0

9.9

Tax on Fuels and


Auction
Fuel and variable

29.4
7.8

Grid

43.2

48.8

50.2

2010

2020

2030

Capital and O&M

Average
Industry
Services
Households

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

96
59
123
127

104
71
124
133

110
77
124
144

127
92
139
164

140
101
152
180

146
104
159
191

144
98
159
192

The projected changes in the EU27 power sector also

Impacts on Primary Energy Supply

have significant impacts on energy costs and electricity prices. Total cumulative investment expenditure
for power generation in the period 2006-2030 are pro-

As the new Baseline scenario involves lower total


primary energy requirements and a restructuring
away from fossil fuels, considerable benefits are obtained in terms of security of energy supply: dependence on energy imports increases much less than
projected in the baseline scenario of 2007. Import
dependency in 2030 in the latest Baseline amounts to
59% compared with 67% in the exercise undertaken
in 2007.

jected to reach 1.1 trillion 08 with electricity prices


increasing substantially both relative to present levels
and in comparison to the 2007 Baseline. Auction
payments and increasing fuel prices and higher capital costs (for RES and CCS) are the factors explaining the electricity price rise.
The average price of electricity, net of auction payments, increases to 108.4/MWh in 2020 and
112.1/MWh in 2030 (in real terms, i.e. in money of
2005), a consistent rise compared to current values
due to higher capital and O&M costs, and higher fuel
and variable costs. The auction payments account for
9.4% of the average pre-tax electricity price.

30

50

The EU will require 40% more gas to be imported by


2030 compared with 2005 (the increment was 70% in
the Baseline scenario of 2007). Oil and solid fuels
imports are projected to be close to the 2005 levels in
2030 (contrasting an increase by 24% and 68% respectively in the Baseline scenario of 2007).

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

FIGURE 17: IMPACTS ON PRIMARY ENERGY

Baseline 2009: Primary Energy Requirements


2000

2000

Mtoe
RES

1500

Baseline 2007: Primary Energy


Requirements
Mtoe

1500

Natural gas

1000

Oil

1000

Solids

500

Nuclear

500
0

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Baseline 2009: Net Imports

Mtoe

Mtoe

1990

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

Baseline 2007: Net Imports

2020

2030

Natural gas 135


Oil
536

145

193

257

293

328

351

361

364

Natural gas

390

431

512

533

600

579

616

630

619

597

Oil

707

729

Solids

79

99

127

117

134

145

140

129

Solids

200

210

82

The new scenario projects lower primary


energy demand compared with the 2007
exercise. The new baseline projection
shows stable gross energy consumption,
which is a break of the historic trend for
ever increasing energy demand.
Moreover, there is a change in the shares
of the different fossil fuels. Although there
is a substantial reduction of gas imports
compared to previous projections, the
share of gas among fossil fuels increases
compared to the 2007 Baseline as can be
seen in Figure 18, due to the carbon
price. For natural gas the dependence on
imports increases strongly over time reflecting strong demand and declining indigenous production.

FIGURE 18: SHARES OF GAS IN


FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOSSIL FUEL USE

Share of Gas in Total Fossil Fuel


Consumption (%)
35
34
33
32
31
30
29
Baseline 2009
Baseline 2007

2005

2020

2030

30.9
31.1

33.6
32.6

34.4
33.1

Fossil Fuels in Total Primary Energy (Mtoe)


1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000
Baseline 2009
Baseline 2007

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

2005

2020

2030

1443
1430

1377
1548

1278
1560

31

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

Impacts on Emissions and RES Indicators


Total CO2 emissions are projected to reduce by 8% in
2020 and by 20% in 2030 relative to 1990 levels. The
reduction takes place for energy related CO2 emissions, which even fall 22% between 1990 and 2030.
On the contrary, non-energy related CO2, emissions
in 2030 are only slightly lower than they were in 1990
(-3%). The large part of the reduction in energy related CO2 emissions is projected to occur in the ETS
sectors (-30% from 2005 levels in 2030) whereas non
ETS emissions of CO2 are projected to remain at
their 2005 levels in 2020 and decrease by 9% in
6
2030 .
Total greenhouse gas emissions can be calculated by
combining PRIMES results with results from non-CO2
projections based on the GAINS model7. The overall
greenhouse gas emission reductions in the non-ETS
sectors in the Baseline 2009 scenario, compared to
2005 levels, are 3.6% in 2020 and 9.2% in 2030.
Compared to 1990, total EU greenhouse gas emissions based on implemented policy measures are
projected to decrease by 14% in 2020.

Cumulative Emissions (MtCO2eq)

Baseline 2009: Emissions (Mt CO2)


5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

1990 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2 Emissions (non330 304 280 291 306 315 318


energy related)
CO2 Emissions (energy
4031 3947 3728 3759 3692 3486 3152
related)
All CO2
4360 4251 4008 4050 3998 3801 3470
Baseline 2009: Emissions (Mt CO2)

5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
non-ETS CO2
ETS CO2
Total CO2

TABLE 2: GHG EMISSION CHANGES FROM 2005


Index (2005=100)
CO2 emissions (energy related)
CO2 emissions (non-energy related)
non-CO2 GHG emissions
Total GHG emissions
ETS emissions (all GHGs)
non ETS emissions (all GHGs)

FIGURE 19: CO2 EMISSIONS

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

1872
2379
4251

1879
2129
4008

1891
2159
4050

1844
2154
3998

1777
2024
3801

1705
1765
3470

Baseline 2009
2020
2030
94
80
100
105
87
86
93
82
89
73
96
91
2008-2030
108085

For reasons of comparability over time, ETS emissions are calculated according to the enlarged ETS scope (including aviation and
further processes) valid from 2012/13 onwards. Hence 2005 emissions as calculated in the model are higher as current verified ETS
emissions.
7
See Hglund-Isaksson, Lena et al. (2010): Potentials and costs
for mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the European Union until 2030. Results. REPORT to the European Commission, DG Climate Action. Download:
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/climat_action/non_co2e
missions_may2010.pdf

32

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

The share of renewable energy sources


in gross final energy demand is projected
to increase over time to reach 14.8% in
2020 and 18.4% in 2030 (up from 8.6% in
2005). These shares remain however well
below the EU targets as the 2009 Baseline takes stock of the effects of already
implemented policies rather than imposing the achievement of those targets.
Driven by the ETS and national RES
supporting policies, the share of RES in
electricity is projected to increase more
than the RES share in other sectors (for
heating and cooling and for transportation).

BASELINE 2009

FIGURE 20: RES INDICATORS


Baseline 2009: RES Indicators normalised
Eurostat definitions)
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0

15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

RES-Heating and
Cooling

9.0

10.0

11.7

12.8

14.3

15.9

16.8

RES-Electricity

13.7

15.2

18.8

22.4

25.8

28.8

31.9

RES-Transport

0.5

1.4

4.2

5.9

7.4

8.4

9.3

RES % Gross Final


Demand

7.6

8.6

10.9

12.8

14.8

16.7

18.4

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

33

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

BASELINE 2009

Conclusions
Summing up, the 2009 Baseline is substantially different from that of 2007, since it reflects the effects of
the economic crisis and includes new policies for energy efficiency, the ETS, and support measures for
RES penetration.
The policies included allow total energy demand to
stabilise, RES to deploy considerably, nuclear to
partly revive thereby reducing the use of fossil fuels.
Contrasting the trends shown in the Baseline 2007,
the new Baseline scenario shows power generation
to embark on a gradual but steady decarbonisation
pathway.
Evidently, emission reduction would be higher if the
binding RES targets and the non ETS emission reduction constraints had already been implemented by
policy measures, which is expected to happen during
this decade. The Baseline, as a stock-taking exercise, shows that there is still a gap to be filled with
further policy action.
The energy trends under the 2009 Baseline assumptions imply an impressively decreasing trajectory for
CO2 and remarkable energy intensity gains, trends
which deliver considerable ancillary benefits in terms
of security of supply and non climate related environmental pressures. However, again the results fall
short of the agreed binding targets on greenhouse
gases.

34

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU-27 ENERGY SCENARIOS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

REFERENCE SCENARIO

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

35

REFERENCE SCENARIO

36

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

4.

REFERENCE SCENARIO

Assumptions and drivers

The Reference scenario is based on the same macroeconomic, energy import price, technology and to a
large extent also policy assumptions as the baseline.
These assumptions are presented in the section on
the Baseline 2009 scenario. In addition to these assumptions, the reference case includes more policies
that have either been adopted after the Baseline
modelling began or reflect the agreed legally binding
targets on greenhouse gas reduction and renewables.

Policy assumptions

2009: four Eco-design implementing measures, the


Recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, Regulation on Labelling of Tyres and Regulation
EURO 6 for heavy duty vehicles. The reference scenario assumes that the two binding targets for 2020
on the 20% RES share in the gross final energy consumption, and on 20% GHG reductions will be
achieved. The 20% RES target includes the subtarget to have a 10% share of RES in transport. The
20% GHG reduction target following the unilateral EU
commitment on cutting GHG by 20% below 1990 is
achieved by full implementation of the ETS provisions
(as in the Baseline) as well as by reaching the nonETS targets of the Effort Sharing Decision at national
levels.

In addition to the measures already reflected in the


baseline 2009 the Reference scenario includes policies adopted between April 2009 and December
TABLE 3: INVENTORY OF LEGAL MEASURES AND COMMUNITY FINANCIAL SUPPORT INCLUDED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
Measure

How the measure is reflected in PRIMES

Eco-design implementing measures


1

TVs (+labelling) Regulation 2009/642/EC

Electric motors Regulation 2009/640/EC

Circulators Regulation 2009/641/EC

Freezers/refrigerators
(+labelling) Regulation 2009/643/EC

Adaptation of modelling parameters for different product groups for Ecodesign and decrease of perceived costs by consumers for labelling (which
reflects transparency and the effectiveness of price signals for consumer
decisions).
As requirements and labelling concern only new products, the effect will be
gradual (marginal in 2010; rather small in 2015 up to full effect by 2030).
The potential envisaged in the Eco-design supporting studies and the relationship between cost and efficiency improvements in the model's database were cross-checked.
New building requirements are reflected in technical parameters of the
model, in particular through better thermal integrity of buildings and requirements for new buildings after 2020.

Recast of the EPBD 2010/31/EU

Labelling regulation for tyres 2009/1222/EC

Decrease of perceived costs by consumers for labelling (which reflects


transparency and the effectiveness of price signals for consumer decisions).

Regulation Euro VI for heavy duty vehicles


2009/595/EC

Emissions limits introduced for new heavy duty vehicles.

RES directive 2009/28/EC

Legally binding national targets for RES share in gross final energy consumption are achieved in 2020; 10% target for RES in transport is
achieved for EU27, as biofuels can easily be traded among Member
States; sustainability criteria for biomass and biofuels are respected; cooperation mechanisms according to the RES directive are allowed and respect Member States indications on their "seller" or "buyer" positions.

GHG Effort Sharing Decision 2009/406/EC

National targets for non-ETS sectors are achieved in 2020, taking full account of the flexibility provisions such as transfers between Member
States. After 2020, stability of the provided policy impulse but no strengthening of targets is assumed.

10

Circulator is an impeller pump designed for use in heating and cooling systems. Glandless standalone circulators and glandles s circulators
integrated in products are covered by this regulation.
9
As political agreement on the recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive was reached in November 2009, all the main provisions were taken into account for the Reference scenario modelling.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

37

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

The Effort Sharing Decision stipulates national


greenhouse gas reduction targets for the non-ETS
sectors, aimed at leading to a reduction at EU level of

The additional policies and measures reflected in the


reference scenario (in addition to the Baseline 2009)
are described in Table 3 below. The Reference scenario can be used as benchmark to assess the effects of additional policies beyond the 2020 binding
targets and as a benchmark for policy scenarios with
long term targets.

around 10% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Several new sectoral policies will need to be deployed to
reach the target. Drivers for these sectors and policies are determined in the model in the form of
shadow prices of carbon (carbon value), which are
taken into account by the agents in the model in their
decision making as costs. The Effort Sharing Decision allows transfers between Member States to
reach the national targets. It was assumed that Member States use this option if it is economically beneficial for them, so carbon values are assumed to be
equal across Member States.

Drivers
The Reference scenario is characterised by lower
ETS carbon prices: 16.5 08/t CO2 in 2020 and 18.7
08/t CO2 in 2030 compared to baseline 2009 values
of 25 08/t CO2 in 2020 and 39 08/t CO2 in 2030.
Lower carbon prices result from the achievement of
the RES target and additional energy efficiency policies agreed between April 2009 and December 2009
that lower energy consumption.

The shadow carbon value for the non-ETS sector


reaching the aggregated EU level reduction was
found equal to 5.3 '08/ tCO2 in 2020. This relatively
low marginal cost for the non-ETS sector is due to:
the inclusion of non-CO2 abatement options which to
a certain extent allow emission reductions at relatively low costs; the assumption of renewables support policies for heating and transport (see below)
and to additional energy efficiency policies reflected

Subsequently, this leads to a decrease in emissions


in the ETS sectors which reduce demand for carbon
allowances. As the price for ETS carbon allowances
is generated through the market equilibrium of demand and supply and demand is lower than in the
baseline 2009 while supply remains at the same
level, the price of ETS carbon allowances is lower
than in the Baseline 2009.

10

in the Reference scenario.

FIGURE 21: ETS EMISSIONS AND ALLOWANCES (INCL. PERMISSIBLE USE OF INTERNATIONAL CREDITS)

2500

Emissions in Mt CO2 eq.

2000
1500
1000
500

Allowances

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

ETS emissions in Reference

10

ETS emissions and allowances (the latter including the permissible use of international credits) are calculated based on the
enlarged ETS scope as valid from 2012/13. For the period 2008 to
2012, aviation and non-CO2 process emissions are deducted to
approximate the current ETS scope. Yearly emissions are interpolated, for 2008 and 2009, also taking account of recent trends in
verified ETS emissions.

38

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

The marginal abatement cost curves for these non


CO2 options are taken from IIASAs GAINS model11.

trading among Member States has been assumed for


the modelling.

After 2020, as there is no target for non-ETS sectors,

5.

a conservative assumption has been taken in the


modelling that a comparable level of efforts will be
continued and therefore the carbon value remains
constant.
Similarly to the non-ETS carbon value, the RES values represent shadow prices of RES obligations for
electricity, heat and transport uses. The RES value is
seen as a benefit by agents in the model as opposed
to the non ETS carbon value. One uniform RES value
has been computed for RES in electricity and for the
heating and cooling sector.
A separate target has been agreed for RES in transport and therefore a specific RES-transport value has
been calculated. The RES targets are assumed to be
met in 2020 at Member States level.
Limited flexibility was assumed whereby a few countries with very high RES values (meaning great difficulty in meeting their RES targets) make use of cooperation mechanisms foreseen in the Directive by
exchanges with countries that have low RES values.
In doing so the modelling took account of the indications given by Member States to the Commission in
early 2010 on how they intend to reach their national
targets. Country specific RES values reflect differ-

Results for the Reference scenario

Implications for Energy Consumption


In the Reference scenario the economic downturn
implies less economic activity and consumption in the
short term, as is the case in the Baseline 2009. This
causes a reduction of energy consumption, but also
reduced investment and capital turnover which slows
energy efficiency progress compared to previous projections.
The economic recovery period after the crisis implies
a faster pace in equipment renewing, hence acceleration of energy efficiency progress takes place. In addition, the Reference scenario includes the entire Energy and Climate Package so the energy efficiency
progress is higher in this scenario to achieve the
2020 targets. As in the Baseline 2009 scenario, GDP
growth and energy demand are decoupling. The additional polices of the reference case decrease primary
energy requirements further.
Gross inland consumption in the Reference case is
projected to be 9.5% lower in 2020 and 12.5% lower
in 2030 than in the 2007 Baseline. Compared with the
2009 Baseline this represents a reduction of 2% in
2020 and of 3% in 2030 (see Figure 22).

ences in renewable potentials and already implemented policies.


The average RES value (across all RES uses)
reaches 49.5 '08/MWh in 2020 and 34.8 '08/MWh
in 2030. The higher RES value of 2020 is due to the
need to achieve the RES target and to the limited
recourse to co-operation mechanism (trading) among
Member States. After 2020, there is no further target,
but continuation of RES support policies with more

11

Hglund-Isaksson, Lena et al. (2010): Potentials and costs for


mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions in the European
Union until 2030. Report to the European Commission, DG Climate
Action. Available at
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/pdf/climat_action/non_co2e
missions_may2010.pdf

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

39

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

FIGURE 22: ENERGY DEMAND AND CO2 EMISSIONS IN RELATION TO GDP


4500

CO2 Emissions from energy (MtCO2)

Gross Inland Consumption (Mtoe)

2100
2000
1900
2005
1800
1700

GIC baseline 2007


GIC baseline 2009

1600

GIC Reference
1500

4300
4100

2005

3900
3700
3500

3300

CO2 baseline 2007

3100
CO2 baseline 2009

2900

2700

CO2 Reference

2500
9.0

9.2

9.4
9.6
Log of GDP

9.8

9.0

CO2 emissions decrease faster than in the Baseline


2009 scenario up to 2020, because the reference
scenario includes meeting the targets for GHG and
RES in 2020. After the achievement of the 2020 targets the decline becomes less steep resulting in a
convergence of the carbon intensity of GDP in the
Reference and Baseline 2009 scenarios by the year
2030, represented in Figure 22 by the highest GDP
levels given the macro-economic assumptions of ongoing GDP growth. The CO2 emissions from energy

9.2

9.4
9.6
Log of GDP

9.8

decrease continuously but reach the same levels in


the reference case as the Baseline 2009 in 2030, although the emissions decline faster before 2020.
Nevertheless, given that GHG concentrations matter
for climate change, the development of cumulative
emissions is decisive. Therefore the Reference case
is environmentally superior to the Baseline.

Final energy

Industry

Heating & Appliances & Transport


Cooling
Lighting
sector

Total final energy demand changes for the tertiary


and residential sectors that are particularly affected
by the additional policies and measures
implemented in the Reference scenario.
FIGURE 23: ENERGY SAVINGS IMPLIED IN THE REFERENCE SCENARIO
Figure 23 shows that in the Reference
Mtoe Energy Savings in
% Energy Savings in Reference
Reference
scenario there are big reductions compared to the Baseline 2007 and also to
from Base 2009
1
2
a smaller extent compared to the Base17
80
from Base 2007
10
46
line 2009.
4
from Base 2009

from Base 2009

18
6

from Base 2007

18

10

from Base 2009

7
2
10

from Base 2009

13

49
37

27
13

from Base 2007

15

10
0

77

41

from Base 2007

2020

5
5

5
5

from Base 2007

2030

40

10

216
132

15

20

25 0

100

200

300

The residential and services sectors


exhibit even stronger energy efficiency
improvements than in the Baseline
2009 scenario. The additional legislation for refrigerators and freezers
causes an improvement in energy efficiency for white appliances in the residential sector of approx. 20% compared
to the Baseline 2009. The increased
efficiency standards under the recast of

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

FIGURE 24: IMPACTS ON PASSENGER AND FREIGHT TRANSPORT


200
175

150

Vehicles efficiency improvement


change from 2005, in %

Income per
capita
Travel per
capita

Passenger Transport
Index 1990 = 100

125

Energy
demand

100

-8.0
-14.7

Energy
Intensity

50

-24.5

-26.3
Passenger
transport

1990

2000

2010

2020

225
200
175

Energy
demand

150
125
75

Private
cars

2020

-33.2

Rail

Aviation

2030

Vehicles efficiency improvement


change from 2005, in %
-4.9

-5.4

Transport per
unit of GDP

100

Public road
transport

2030
GDP

Freight Transport
Index 1990 = 100

-29.9

-30.4

25

-17.1

-17.5 -18.3

75

-13.0

-13.4

-13.6

Energy
Intensity

50
25

-36.9

Freight transport
1990

2000

2010

2020

2020

2030

the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, implemented in this scenario, cause a general downward trend across all Member States; the trends, due
to national policies that were already visible in the

Trucks

2030

Rail

the inclusion of aviation in the ETS are the main drivers for the increased energy efficiency in the sector.
The freight sector follows similar trends although the
effects are less pronounced.

Baseline 2009 scenario, are strengthened in the Reference scenario (see Figure 8).
FIGURE 25: IMPACTS ON ROAD TRANSPORTATION

mand in transportation from the transport activity


given that transport energy demand rises only
slightly. Regarding changes in the fuel mix, however,
changes in the reference scenario are rather limited.
Nevertheless, the amount of renewable energy in
transportation develops in line with the 10% RES target and hybrid cars make significant inroads, but
there is no penetration of electricity in road transport
sector. The CO2 intensity decreases to 206 gCO2/km
in 2020 and to 164 gCO2/km in 2030.

100%
90%

350
291

300

80%

ICE vehicles
200

206

CO2 intensity
(right axis)

50%
164

30%

150
100
50

10%
0%

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

Plug-in hybrids
Hybrid vehicles

60%

40%

Electric

250

70%

20%

For passenger transport the decoupling of transport


activity and economic growth is strong, given significant passenger transport activity and stability of energy demand for this purpose. The new regulations
for cars, further electrification of the rail network and

CO2 g/km

In the transport sector, the policies included in the


scenario lead to a near decoupling of the energy de-

0
2005 2020 2030

Fuel Mix
Cars
Petroleum
Fuels
Biofuels
Electricity
Natural Gas

2020

2030

90.4% 88.1%
8.9% 11.3%
0.0% 0.0%
0.6%

0.6%

41

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

FIGURE 26: POWER GENERATION FROM RES

Impacts on Power Generation


The overall trends of the Baseline 2009 compared to
the Baseline 2007 come to the fore also in the Reference Scenario, both for 2020 and 2030. However the
trends are somewhat more pronounced in the reference case. The results differ because of the different

1400
1200
1000

driving forces. The RES value applies in the Reference scenario but not in the Baseline scenario (given
that RES values are derived with respect to the underlying Baseline), whereas the ETS carbon prices
are significantly lower in the Reference scenario reflecting lower electricity production and more RES
use.

800
600
400
200

The structure of power generation changes significantly. The RES target causes a major increase in
generation from renewables, which continues up to
2030 and has a crowding out effect on other technologies.
Fossil fuel generation sees a major contraction: contrary to previous expectations gas generation decreases to a share of approx. 18% and also solids
follow a much steeper decline than previously projected.
Nuclear energy reduces considerably in terms of
share, but in absolute terms (TWh) nuclear production in 2030 amounts to almost the same levels as in
2005.

Reference: Gross Power


Generation by RES in TWh

Tidal, etc.
Geothermal
Biomass/waste
Solar
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
Hydro

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

0
5
84
1
2
68
307

0
7
120
17
14
147
323

1
8
171
32
81
243
333

7
12
261
62
177
348
341

10
17
275
77
224
381
350

14
22
286
94
287
407
358

Generation from RES sees a major expansion and


sees a modification in the structure. Hydropower remains constant thus decreasing considerably in
share. Wind onshore, wind offshore and solar photovoltaics see a major growth. Geothermal and tidal
both expand but remain minor technologies. Biomass
has a higher percentage than in the Baseline 2009
due to the further implementation of the cogeneration
directive and as it represents a non-intermittent RES
supply. The share of intermittent RES rises to 16.8%

FIGURE 27: POWER GENERATION STRUCTURE


Reference 2009: Shares in %

Reference : Gross Power Generation by source in TWh


4500

14.3

4000

3500

RES

3000

21.2

Oil

2500

Gas

2000

30.0

Solids

1500

19.0
32.6

36.1

19.5

17.8

22.8

21.1

23.2

27.6

Nuclear

1000

500

30.5

28.0

23.9

24.1

2005

2010

2020

2030

0
2000

42

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

FIGURE 28: CAPACITY EXPANSION

Capacity Expansion in Reference

Capacity Expansion in Baseline 2009

350.0

350.0

300.0

300.0

250.0

250.0

212.7

9.3

GW

0.0

4.5
97.4

11.1
6.4
2000-2010

10.0

108.1

150.0

9.0

55.6
41.6

150.0

54.3

4.5
100.0

34.1
50.0

60.9

14.3
2010-2020

Oil

133.3

200.0

110.5

50.0

162.4

132.5

200.0

100.0

RES

0.0
2020-2030

14.2

Gas

46.0

66.2

54.0

45.8

71.3

Solids

line 2009 scenario follows


a continuously increasing
trend, whereas the Reference scenario sees a
peak between 2015 and
2020 in order to achieve
the 2020 targets, followed
by a reduction of investments between 2020 and
2025 and then a renewed
growth after that time period.

99.3
12.1
6.4

14.6

2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030

in 2020 and 20.7% in 2030 of power generation,


compared to 18.5% in 2030 of the Baseline 2009
scenario.12 The system reserve margin13 is 1.34 in
2020 and decreases to 1.27 in 2030; compared to the
Baseline 2009 the values are higher in 2020 where
the reserve margin is 1.3 while reserve margins are
similar in both scenarios for 2030.

Nuclear

As in the Baseline 2009,


gas power capacity sees
a lower growth than previously projected in the
Baseline 2007 scenario.

Input into gas power plants also decreases due to the


lower rate of use of gas fired power plants (see Table
4). Nonetheless gas power plants are necessary to
balance for the high amount of intermittent RES in the
system. Whereas in the Baseline scenario the capacity of gas power plants rises steadily over the time
period, in the Reference scenario the increase to

2020 is lower and the rise faster after 2020. The perDue to the RES target the scenario experiences incentage of peak load plants among gas power plant
creased capacity expansion between 2010 and 2020;
the capacity expansion slows down
FIGURE 29: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS POWER GENERATION AND FOSSIL
between 2020 and 2030 after the
FUEL INPUT TO POWER GENERATION
target has been met (see Figure
Fossil Fuels in Power
Share of Gas in Fossil Fuel
28). Between 2015 and 2020 reGeneration (Mtoe)
based
Power
Generation
(%)
newable energies represent the
500
48
480
46
bulk of overall investment in the
460
44
440
capacity accounting for almost
420
42
400
80%, the largest amount of which
40
380
360
38
being devoted to wind on-shore,
340
36
320
followed by wind off-shore and so34
300
2005
2020
2030
2005
2020
2030
lar. The power investment pattern
Baseline
Baseline
394
384
344
38.4
46
44.4
in the Baseline 2009 scenario is
2009
2009
Baseline
Baseline
different as the scenario does not
392
425
416
40.3
44.7
42.8
2007
2007
have targets to be met in 2020. For
Reference
Reference
394
327
320
38.4
44.7
44.7
RES power investment, the Base-

12

Intermittent resources are: wind (on-shore and off-shore), solar


and tidal/wave. The shares are calculated based on net power
generation.
13
The ratio of total installed capacity to peak load.

technologies is slightly higher in the Reference scenario compared to the Baseline 2009, both in 2020
and 2030.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

43

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

14

TABLE 4: DETAILS ON GAS USE IN POWER GENERATION


Baseline 2009
2010
2015
2020

2025

2030

249.8

250.3

266.9

269.4

40.1% 35.7%

38.3%

35.8%

32.3%

142

151

150

137

20102015

20152020

20202025

20252030

50.7

15.5

29.4

16.6

Capacity [GWe] (net) 217.8


Rate of Use
Fuel Input in Gas
Power Plants [Mtoe]

143

Capacity Investment
[GW]

Reference
2010
2015

2020

2025

2030

243.3

237.9

253.6

268.3

39.1% 34.1%

33.6%

33.1%

29.9%

131

123

129

124

20102015

20152020

20202025

20252030

46

9.5

27.3

27

Capacity [GWe] (net) 216.0


Rate of Use
Fuel Input in Gas
Power Plants [Mtoe]

139

Capacity Investment
[GW]

The share of electricity from CHP reaches 18% in


2015 and rises to 19% by 2025. This represents a
large increase compared to the 2007 Baseline and a
slight increase compared to the 2009 Baseline which
can be brought back to two factors: the use of biomass in a CHP plant is more efficient than with other
uses, so the increase in RES causes an increase in
CHP; and the cogeneration directive is further implemented facilitating the construction of CHP power
plants.
Due to the combination of these effects, the decarbonisation of power generation has a declining trend.
Driven by the RES target the decarbonisation follows
a steeper trajectory than the Baseline 2009 scenario
up to 2020. After 2020 the decarbonisation slows
down as the low carbon price does not drive a further
fast decarbonisation (see Figure 30).
The price of electricity in the Reference scenario increases up to 2020. However, electricity prices remain approximately the same as in the Baseline 2009
(see Figure 31 and Figure 16). Lower auctioning expenditure as well as lower fuel and variable costs
compensate for the higher capital costs, which are
due to the larger amount of RES in the Reference
case.

CCS power plant capacity in 2020 reflects construction of demonstration plants, but thereafter no large
increase in capacity is seen up to 2030, contrasting
the Baseline scenario. The carbon price of
16.508/tCO2 in 2020 and 18.708/tCO2 in 2030
does not provide a sufficient incentive for the development of this technology. This also explains why the
Reference scenario has a higher carbon intensity
value for power generation in 2030.

FIGURE 30: CARBON INTENSITY AND OTHER INDICATORS FOR POWER GENERATION
Carbon Intensity of Power generation (tCO2/MWh)
0.40

Efficiency for thermal electricity production


(%)
40.4
40.3

0.38

0.35

0.36

39.9

2015

2020

38.5

0.32

0.30

39.9
39.1
37.6

0.28

0.25

0.24

0.20

0.23

0.21

2000

2005

2010

2025

2030

% of electricity from CHP

0.15

Baseline 2007

18.2

18.4

19.0

19.3

2015

2020

2025

2030

14.9

0.10

Baseline 2009

0.05

11.4

11.7

2000

2005

Reference 2009

0.00
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2010

14

Rate of use is calculated as net electricity generation divided by


net capacity multiplied with the hours of a year (8760 hours).

44

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

FIGURE 31: IMPACTS ON COSTS AND PRICES OF ELECTRICITY


billion
450

250

Reference: Structure of Electricity Costs

400

Reference:
After tax Electricity Prices in EUR/MWh

Gross Sales margin

350

Tax on Fuels and


Auction
Fuel and variable

300
250
200
150

200

Grid

150

100

Capital and O&M

50

0
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

100

Reference: Pre-tax price of electricity in EUR/MWh

92.4
11.1
29.4

120.7
10.3
10.1

120.2
13.1
7.0

Gross Sales margin

36.7

38.4

9.5

10.8

Tax on Fuels and


Auction
Fuel and variable

7.4

50

Grid

43.3

54.1

2010

2020

51.0

Capital and O&M


2030

Impacts on Primary Energy Supply


The primary energy demand in the Reference scenario decreases 4% between 2005 and 2030; this
represents a major reduction from previous projections.

Average
Industry
Services
Households

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

96
59
123
127

104
71
124
133

110
78
125
145

126
90
139
165

141
97
155
186

144
99
158
190

141
95
154
186

FIGURE 32: PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS


IMPORTS OF FOSSIL FUELS

AND

NET

Reference: Primary Energy Requirements


2000
Mtoe

1500

The amount of fossil fuels in total primary energy


supply is lower compared to the Baseline 2007 and

RES
Natural gas
Oil
Solids
Nuclear

1000

the Baseline 2009 scenarios, due to the achievement


of the RES targets. This has positive impacts on security of supply as it reduces the imports compared to
previous projections. Oil import dependency is decreased due to the reduced oil demand caused by
the RES-transport target. The imports of solids in
2030 remain almost unchanged from the Baseline
2009 scenario.

500

Reference: Net Imports (EU27)


1200
1000

In absolute terms the amount of natural gas is lower


than in the new and old Baseline scenarios. This
gives rise to lower gas import dependency; natural
gas imports are only 24% higher in this scenario
compared to 2005 levels, which is a considerable
decrease from the Baseline 2007 as well as from the
Baseline 2009 projections.

Mtoe

800
600
400
200

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Natural gas 135


Oil
536
Solids
82

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

145
512
79

193
533
99

257
600
127

288
580
122

307
610
125

301
608
122

315
600
133

318
578
129

45

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

The share of gas in the reference case is lower than in the Baseline due to the lower ETS carbon prices and
the higher share of RES. This leads to a flat gas share in the medium term followed by a slight decline from
2020 onwards, contrary to Baseline developments.
FIGURE 33: SHARE OF GAS IN FOSSIL FUELS AND DEVELOPMENT OF FOSSIL FUEL USE

Share of Gas in Total Fossil Fuel


Consumption (%)
35
34
33
32
31
30
29

Baseline 2009
Baseline 2007
Reference

2005

2020

2030

30.9
31.1
30.9

33.6
32.6
32.2

34.4
33.1
32.6

Fossil Fuels in Total Primary Energy


(Mtoe)
1800
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
1200
1100
1000

Baseline 2009
Baseline 2007
Reference

Impacts on Emissions and RES


Indicators
CO2 emission reductions reach 13%
compared to 2005 levels in 2020 and
they further decrease by 17% in 2030.
As in the Baseline scenario reductions
occur for energy related CO2 emissions,
but not for non-energy related CO2. It is
interesting to note that the EU greenhouse gas emission target of -20% in
2020 compared to 1990 is met internally,
although the ETS cap includes in the
modelling and in reality the flexibility to
use a certain amount of CDM.
Emissions in this scenario decrease in
the ETS and the non-ETS sectors due to
the non-ETS obligations. EU internal
emissions from the ETS sectors, including aviation, reduce approx. 19% by
2020 and 20% by 2030 compared to
2005 levels. The non-ETS sectors reduce by 9.4% in 2020, thereby achieving
the aggregated national non-ETS targets
at EU level. Non-ETS emissions are projected to further decrease 15.7% by
2030, largely due to the energy efficiency
policies.

46

2005

2020

2030

1443
1430
1443

1377
1548
1277

1278
1560
1206

FIGURE 34: CO2 EMISSIONS


Reference: Emissions (Mt CO2)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0

1990

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

CO2 Emissions (non-energy


related)

330

304

280

294

310

320

329

CO2 Emissions (energy


related)

4031

3947

3740

3665

3403

3345

3194

All CO2

4360

4251

4021

3959

3714

3665

3522

Reference: Emissions (Mt CO2)


5000
4000

3000
2000
1000
0

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

non-ETS CO2

1872

1879

1861

1758

1679

1595

ETS CO2

2379

2142

2098

1956

1986

1928

Total CO2

4251

4021

3959

3714

3665

3522

Index (2005=100)
CO2 emissions (energy related)
CO2 emissions (non-energy related)
non-CO2 GHG emissions
Total GHG emissions
ETS emissions (all GHGs)
non ETS emissions (all GHGs)
Cumulative Emissions (MtCO2eq)

Reference
2020
2030
86
81
102
108
79
78
86
82
81
80
91
84
2008-2030
104685

Baseline 2009
2020
2030
94
80
100
105
87
86
93
82
89
73
96
91
2008-2030
108085

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

The transport sector experiences a large reduction in


emissions compared to previous projections. Reference case emissions related to transport peak in

FIGURE 36: RES INDICATORS


Reference: RES Indicators normalised
Eurostat definitions)
40.0

2015 and decline thereafter reaching values below


the 2005 level by 2030. The main drivers to achieve
this reduction are technological improvements, the
CO2 from cars regulation, and the increased RES
contribution.

35.0
30.0
25.0

20.0
15.0

FIGURE 35: CO2 EMISSIONS IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR

10.0

CO2 emissions in the Transport Sector


1200

2.900

5.0

2.912

0.0

2.837
Aviation

1000

MtCO2

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

RES-Heating and
Cooling

9.0

10.0

11.9

15.5

20.8

20.8

21.3

Inl. Navigation

1100

900

2.707

Rail

2.644
800

RES-Electricity

13.7

15.2

18.7

24.3

32.5

33.7

35.9

RES-Transport

0.5

1.4

4.2

6.5

10.0

10.9

12.5

RES % Gross Final


Demand

7.6

8.6

11.0

14.6

20.0

20.7

22.2

Road

Member States have declared that they expect to


achieve their RES target for 2020 largely through na-

700
Carbon
intensity (t
CO2/toe)

600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Renewable energy sources in 2020 reach the 20%


share in gross final energy demand according to the
target for that year, and the 10% renewable energy in
the transport sector target is also met. The share of
biofuels in petrol and diesel consumption amounts to
9.4%. To achieve the 20% overall target the percentage of RES in heating and cooling increases to about
21% rising above the levels projected in the Baseline
2009. The share of RES further increases to 22.2%
by 2030, driven mainly by a continued rise in the
electricity sector and a slight increase in the transport
sector.

tional developments making only limited use of the


co-operation mechanism among Member States; this
is reflected in the model. The RES in heating and
cooling is driven by the direct use of RES for these
purposes. The main type of RES used for heating
purposes is biomass and this source rises continuously until 2020, but experiences a slowdown thereafter due to increased substitution with electricity (heat
pumps) and reduced final energy demand. The technology that experiences a major increase is solar
thermal, which almost doubles, as can be seen in
Figure 37.

330

40

310

30

290

20

270

10

250

230

50

330

40

310

30

290

20

270

10

250

230

Biomass-waste

Solar thermal

Biomass-waste

Solar thermal

Geothermal heat

Final Energy Demand

Geothermal heat

Final Energy Demand

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

Final Energy Demand (Mtoe)

50

RES in the Residential Sector


in the Baseline 2009 Scenario
RES use (Mtoe)

RES use (Mtoe)

RES in the Residential Sector


in the Reference Scenario

Final Energy Demand (Mtoe)

FIGURE 37: DIRECT USE OF RES IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR

47

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

REFERENCE SCENARIO

Conclusions
The Reference Scenario confirms the more favourable trends of the Baseline 2009 scenario compared
to the Baseline 2007 scenario. Furthermore it depicts
considerable changes relative to the Baseline 2009
scenario because of the additional policies considered.
The RES target and additional energy efficiency
measures cause a reduction in the use of fossil fuels
that allow the ETS cap to be reached through lower
carbon prices. The achievement of the RES and nonETS targets imply that emissions decrease faster until 2020, when the targets are met and start converging to the values of the Baseline 2009 between 2020
and 2030; cumulative emissions however remain significantly lower.
Electricity prices remain almost unchanged compared
to the Baseline 2009 scenario, as the increase in
capital costs is compensated by the decrease in auctioning payments as well as in fuel and variable costs.
The lower carbon price does not allow a competitive
marketing of CCS; the already planned demonstration power plants will be constructed and only marginal further development is projected until 2030. The
carbon intensity of the power sector in this scenario in
2030 is therefore higher than in the Baseline 2009.
The major difference between the two scenarios is
the lower ETS carbon price induced by the RES target and the increased energy efficiency policies in the
presence of oversupply of allowances following the
crisis and the possibility to bank allowances. The
lower carbon price has implications on the power
generation development and for the structure of primary energy demand.

48

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

6.

REFERENCE SCENARIO

General Conclusions

The new Baseline 2009 and the Reference scenarios


both show a very different picture than the Baseline
2007 scenario. The main reasons for this are the inclusion of many more policies and the economic cri-

The carbon prices resulting from the scheme are different in the two scenarios.

sis starting in autumn 2008 that has been taken into


account.
Both scenarios due to the economic crisis and to the
implementation of energy efficiency policies see a
decrease in primary energy consumption and a decrease in the use of fossil fuels which has a positive
effect on security of supply reducing the necessity of
imports from outside the EU including from geopolitical unstable regions. The Reference scenario due to
the RES target shows lower fossil fuel consumption
than the Baseline 2009 scenario which has implications on the carbon price.
Both scenarios include the EU-Emissions Trading
Scheme, which due to the facility to bank allowances
can be treated modelling-wise as a cumulative cap
2008-2030 for the sectors covered by the scheme.
The inclusion of the amended ETS Directive together
with more policies on energy efficiency and RES implies that emissions are lower than the Baseline 2007
scenario.

The Baseline 2009 scenario results in carbon


prices of 25/tCO2 in 2020 and 39/tCO2 in
2030; this price, under the technological and
economic assumptions of the model is likely
to give enough security to investors to undertake investments in CCS technology.

In the Reference scenario the carbon price is


projected to be 16.5/tCO2 in 2020 and
18.7/tCO2 in 2030.

This lower price of carbon is due to the larger amount


of RES in the power sector and lower electricity demand following eco-design measures. In the reference scenario this ETS price is not sufficient to allow
additional investments in CCS technology.
The price of electricity in the two scenarios increases
considerably compared to current levels following
structural change of capacity, higher fuel prices and
costs for purchasing allowances. In the Reference
scenario the higher capital costs caused by the investments in RES technologies are compensated by
the lower ETS auction purchase, fuel and variable
costs, so that electricity prices in the reference case
are similar to those of the Baseline. It should be
noted, however, that a corollary of the auction purchase costs are government revenues.
Summarizing the scenarios both imply lower primary
energy consumption, therefore higher security of
supply compared to previous projections, lower emissions, but considerably higher costs of electricity. The
implementation of the RES target and the additional
energy efficiency measures causes very different
carbon prices in the two scenarios.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

49

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

GLOSSARY

GLOSSARY
Aviation: Aviation activity includes only intra EU air
transportation. Energy consumption in aviation reflects sales of fuels at the point of refuelling, irrespectively of airplane destination.
Bio-fuels: Bio-fuels include ethanol and biodiesel
Carbon capture and storage (CCS): Carbon capture and geological storage is a technique for trapping carbon dioxide emitted from large point sources,
compressing it, and transporting it to a suitable storage site where it is injected into the ground.
Carbon intensity: The amount of CO2 emitted per
unit of energy consumed or produced (t of CO2/tonne
of oil equivalent (toe) or MWh).
Clean coal technologies: These innovative technologies are designed to enhance the efficiency and
environmental acceptability of coal extraction, preparation and use. Among the most promising technologies are fluidised-bed combustion (PFBC), integrated
gasification combined cycle (IGCC) and coal gasification.
CO2 Emissions to GDP: The amount of CO2 emitted
per unit of GDP (carbon intensity of GDP - t of CO2/M
Euro).
Cogeneration thermal plant: A system using a
common energy source to produce both electricity
and steam for other uses, resulting in increased fuel
efficiency (see also: CHP).
Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant (CCGT): A
technology which combines gas turbines and steam
turbines, connected to one or more electrical generators at the same plant. The gas turbine (usually fuelled by natural gas or oil) produces mechanical
power, which drives the generator, and heat in the
form of hot exhaust gases. These gases are fed to a
boiler, where steam is raised at pressure to drive a
conventional steam turbine, which is also connected
to an electrical generator. This has the effect of producing additional electricity from the same fuel compared to an open cycle turbine.
Combined Heat and Power (CHP): This means cogeneration of useful heat and power (electricity) in a
single process. In contrast to conventional power
plants that convert only a limited part of the primary
energy into electricity with the remainder of this en-

50

ergy being discharged as waste heat, CHP makes


use of large parts of this energy for e.g. industrial
processes, district heating, and space heating. CHP
therefore improves energy efficiency (see also: cogeneration thermal plant).
Efficiency for thermal electricity production: It
measures efficiency of fuel conversion into electricity
and useful heat. It is calculated as heat and electricity
output divided by the calorific value of input fuel.
Efficiency indicator in freight transport (activity
related): Energy efficiency in freight transport is
computed on the basis of energy use per tonne-km.
Given the existence of inconsistencies between
transport and energy statistics, absolute numbers
(especially at the level of individual Member States)
might be misleading in some cases. For that reason,
the numbers given are only illustrative of the trends in
certain cases.
Efficiency indicator in passenger transport (activity related): Energy efficiency in passenger transport
is computed on the basis of energy use per passenger-km travelled. Issues related to consistency of
transport and energy statistics also apply to passenger transport (see also: Efficiency indicator in freight
transport).
Energy branch consumption: Energy consumed in
refineries, electricity and steam generation and in
other transformation processes.
Energy intensity: energy consumption/GDP or another indicator for economic activity.
Energy intensive industries: Iron and steel, nonferrous, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, and paper
and pulp industries.
EU Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS):
A
scheme for greenhouse gas emission allowance trading within the Community established by Directive
2003/87/EC in order to promote reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective and economically efficient manner. Installations included in
the scheme are combustion plants, oil refineries,
coke ovens, iron and steel plants, and factories producing cement, glass, lime, brick, ceramics, pulp and
paper. Recent amendments (2008/101/EC and
2009/29/EC) have enlarged its scope, including aviation and further process emissions.

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

Feed-in tariff: The price per unit of electricity that a


utility or supplier has to pay for renewable electricity.
Final energy demand: Energy finally consumed in
the transport, industrial, household, services and agriculture sectors; the latter two sectors are sometimes
aggregated and named "tertiary". It excludes deliveries to the energy transformation sector (e.g. power
plants) and to the energy branch. It includes electricity consumption in the above mentioned final demand
sectors.
Freight transport activity: Includes energy consuming transportation of commodities on roads, by rail
and by inland navigation.
Fuel cells: A fuel cell is an electrochemical energy
conversion device converting hydrogen and oxygen
into electricity and heat with the help of catalysts. The
fuel cell provides a direct current voltage that can be
used to power various electrical devices including
motors and lights.
Fuel input to power generation: Fuel use in power
plants and CHP plants.

GLOSSARY

Hydro power plant: A plant producing energy with


the use of moving water. In this report, hydro excludes pumped storage plants that generate electricity during peak load periods by using water previously
pumped into an elevated storage reservoir during offpeak periods when excess generating capacity is
available. Energy losses in pumping are accounted
for separately.
Inland navigation: It includes both waterborne inland
transport activity and domestic sea shipping. However, international short sea shipping is not included
in the above category as, according to EUROSTAT
energy balances, energy needs for international shipping are allocated to bunkers.
Import dependency: It shows the extent to which a
country relies upon imports in order to meet its energy needs.
Non fossil fuels: Nuclear and renewable energy
sources.

Gas: Includes natural gas, blast furnace gas, cokeoven gas and gasworks gas.

Non-energy uses: Non-energy consumption of energy carriers in petrochemicals and other sectors,
such as chemical feed-stocks, lubricants and asphalt
for road construction.

Gas to liquids (GTL): A refinery process to convert


natural gas or other gaseous hydrocarbons into
longer-chain hydrocarbons.

Nuclear power plant: A plant in which a nuclear fission chain reaction can be initiated, controlled, and
sustained at a specific rate.

Generation capacity: The maximum rated output of


a generator, prime mover, or other electric power
production equipment under specific conditions designated by the manufacturer.

Oil: Includes crude oil, feed-stocks, refinery gas, liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, gasoline, diesel oil,
fuel oil, naphtha and other petroleum products.

Geothermal plant: A plant in which the prime mover


is a steam turbine, which is driven either by steam
produced from hot water or by natural steam that derives its energy from heat in rocks or fluids beneath
the surface of the earth. The energy is extracted by
drilling and/or pumping.
Gross Inland Consumption (or primary energy
consumption): Quantity of energy consumed within
the borders of a country. It is calculated as primary
production + recovered products + imports +/- stock
changes exports bunkers (i.e. quantities supplied
to international sea-shipping).
Gross Inland Consumption/GDP: Energy intensity
indicator calculated as the ratio of total energy consumption to GDP (toe/M Euro).

Peak devices: Gas turbines, internal combustion


engines and other small scale thermal power plants
which are usually used to supply electricity in peak
hours.
Passenger transport activity: Passenger transport
activity includes energy consuming passenger transport on roads (public and private), by rail, in airplanes
and on ships as far as this takes place on rivers, canals, lakes and as domestic sea shipping; international short sea shipping is not included as, according
to EUROSTAT energy balances, energy needs for
international shipping are allocated to bunkers.
Primary production: Total indigenous production. In
Primes result sheets it also includes recovered products.
Renewable energy sources: Energy resources that
are naturally replenishing but flow-limited. They are

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

51

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

GLOSSARY

virtually inexhaustible in duration but limited in the


amount of energy that is available per unit of time.
Renewable energy resources include: biomass,
waste energy, hydro, wind, geothermal, solar, wave
and tidal energy.
Solar power plant: A plant producing energy with
the use of radiant energy from the sun; includes solar
thermal and photovoltaic (direct conversion of solar
energy into electricity) plants.
Solids: Include both primary products (hard coal and
lignite) and derived fuels (patent fuels, coke, tar, pitch
and benzol).
Supercritical polyvalent units: A power plant for
which the evaporator part of the boiler operates at
pressures above 22.1 Mega Pascals (MPa). The cycle-medium in this case is a single phase fluid with
homogenous properties and thus there is no need to
separate steam from water in a drum, allowing for
higher efficiency in power generation.
Thermal power plants: Type of electric generating
station in which the source of energy for the prime
mover is heat (nuclear power plants are excluded).
Useful energy: The portion of final energy which is
actually available after final conversion to the consumer for the respective use. In final conversion,
electricity becomes for instance light, mechanical energy or heat.
Windfall profit: An unexpected profit received by the
profiting party without any particular performance.
Wind power plant: Typically a group of wind turbines
supplying electricity directly to a consumer or interconnected to a common transmission or distribution
system. Offshore wind includes windmills located at
sea (coastal wind mills are usually included in onshore wind).

52

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

APPENDIX 1: DEMOGRAPHIC AND


MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

53

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
EU-27: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

470.4
2.7
176.2

481.1
2.5
195.1

499.4
2.3
216.8

513.8
2.2
231.3

519.9
2.2
240.8

0.2
-0.8
1.0

0.4
-0.7
1.1

0.3
-0.4
0.6

0.1
-0.3
0.4

8142.7
4714.3
7304.8
1370.8
54.1
23.4
116.2
39.5
65.6
126.9
80.2
180.5
99.8
524.1
180.2
542.7
4963.3
175.4

10107.2
5853.9
9017.0
1597.2
56.4
33.1
154.8
57.4
73.9
146.8
91.0
203.3
86.1
648.0
194.9
554.0
6365.3
190.7

11385.6
6495.6
10135.9
1690.2
53.8
28.9
186.3
79.3
71.4
143.2
94.1
214.9
64.7
722.5
204.7
561.7
7398.6
182.3

14164.0
8077.2
12655.5
2059.6
61.7
34.2
229.0
106.4
83.9
170.6
115.7
263.1
63.6
905.7
247.9
707.6
9359.8
197.6

16824.7
9423.1
15051.1
2409.1
68.5
39.1
271.9
137.2
96.3
199.8
139.6
316.2
60.9
1060.5
295.9
829.8
11235.8
217.4

2.2
2.2
2.1
1.5
0.4
3.5
2.9
3.8
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.2
-1.5
2.1
0.8
0.2
2.5
0.8

1.2
1.0
1.2
0.6
-0.5
-1.3
1.9
3.3
-0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.6
-2.8
1.1
0.5
0.1
1.5
-0.5

2.2
2.2
2.2
2.0
1.4
1.7
2.1
3.0
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.0
-0.2
2.3
1.9
2.3
2.4
0.8

1.7
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.0
1.4
1.7
2.6
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.9
-0.4
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.0

18.8
0.7
0.3
1.6
0.5
0.9
1.7
1.1
2.5
1.4
7.2
2.5
7.4
67.9
2.4

17.7
0.6
0.4
1.7
0.6
0.8
1.6
1.0
2.3
1.0
7.2
2.2
6.1
70.6
2.1

16.7
0.5
0.3
1.8
0.8
0.7
1.4
0.9
2.1
0.6
7.1
2.0
5.5
73.0
1.8

16.3
0.5
0.3
1.8
0.8
0.7
1.3
0.9
2.1
0.5
7.2
2.0
5.6
74.0
1.6

16.0
0.5
0.3
1.8
0.9
0.6
1.3
0.9
2.1
0.4
7.0
2.0
5.5
74.7
1.4

252.7

309.8

303.1

330.8

358.9

2.1

-0.2

0.9

0.8

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.6

2.4

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

EU15: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

363.5
2.6
140.3

375.5
2.4
155.9

396.4
2.3
175.7

411.9
2.2
189.1

420.9
2.1
198.5

0.3
-0.7
1.1

0.5
-0.7
1.2

0.4
-0.4
0.7

0.2
-0.3
0.5

7662.1
4457.8
6881.7
1287.0
48.9
22.7
110.1
37.9
60.8
122.1
77.9
165.2
89.9
498.2
169.1
506.1
4725.1
145.7

9563.2
5535.7
8535.9
1505.8
52.1
31.8
147.9
54.5
68.2
141.2
87.6
184.0
78.8
619.4
182.4
520.7
6062.4
167.3

10618.8
6047.8
9466.0
1549.1
49.5
27.1
176.9
75.0
63.7
134.7
88.9
190.7
58.2
669.2
179.2
517.8
6975.4
152.2

13109.5
7463.8
11714.3
1866.5
57.0
32.1
216.2
99.9
73.9
159.3
108.5
229.0
56.3
829.1
213.6
643.5
8748.5
161.0

15518.3
8663.8
13877.4
2184.2
63.7
36.9
255.9
128.3
84.8
186.6
130.9
275.0
53.8
971.3
256.1
754.4
10443.1
176.3

2.2
2.2
2.2
1.6
0.6
3.4
3.0
3.7
1.2
1.5
1.2
1.1
-1.3
2.2
0.8
0.3
2.5
1.4

1.1
0.9
1.0
0.3
-0.5
-1.6
1.8
3.2
-0.7
-0.5
0.1
0.4
-3.0
0.8
-0.2
-0.1
1.4
-0.9

2.1
2.1
2.2
1.9
1.4
1.7
2.0
2.9
1.5
1.7
2.0
1.8
-0.3
2.2
1.8
2.2
2.3
0.6

1.7
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.1
1.4
1.7
2.5
1.4
1.6
1.9
1.8
-0.5
1.6
1.8
1.6
1.8
0.9

18.7
0.7
0.3
1.6
0.6
0.9
1.8
1.1
2.4
1.3
7.2
2.5
7.4
68.7
2.1

17.6
0.6
0.4
1.7
0.6
0.8
1.7
1.0
2.2
0.9
7.3
2.1
6.1
71.0
2.0

16.4
0.5
0.3
1.9
0.8
0.7
1.4
0.9
2.0
0.6
7.1
1.9
5.5
73.7
1.6

15.9
0.5
0.3
1.8
0.9
0.6
1.4
0.9
2.0
0.5
7.1
1.8
5.5
74.7
1.4

15.7
0.5
0.3
1.8
0.9
0.6
1.3
0.9
2.0
0.4
7.0
1.8
5.4
75.3
1.3

217.7

279.7

271.6

294.8

319.5

2.5

-0.3

0.8

0.8

3.2

3.3

2.9

2.5

2.3

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

NM-12: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)

106.9
3.0
35.9

105.5
2.7
39.2

103.0
2.5
41.2

102.0
2.4
42.2

99.1
2.3
42.3

-0.1
-1.0
0.9

-0.2
-0.7
0.5

-0.1
-0.3
0.2

-0.3
-0.3
0.0

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)


Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture

480.5
256.4
423.1
83.7
5.2
0.6
6.1
1.6
4.8
4.8
2.3
15.3
9.9
25.9
11.1
36.5
238.1
29.7

543.9
318.2
481.1
91.4
4.3
1.3
6.8
2.9
5.7
5.6
3.4
19.3
7.2
28.6
12.5
33.3
302.9
23.4

766.8
447.8
669.9
141.2
4.3
1.8
9.4
4.3
7.7
8.5
5.2
24.2
6.5
53.3
25.5
44.0
423.2
30.1

1054.5
613.4
941.2
193.1
4.7
2.1
12.7
6.5
10.1
11.3
7.2
34.1
7.3
76.6
34.3
64.1
611.3
36.6

1306.4
759.3
1173.7
224.9
4.7
2.2
16.0
8.9
11.5
13.2
8.7
41.2
7.1
89.2
39.8
75.5
792.8
41.1

1.2
2.2
1.3
0.9
-1.9
7.4
1.2
6.2
1.8
1.4
4.0
2.3
-3.1
1.0
1.2
-0.9
2.4
-2.4

3.5
3.5
3.4
4.4
0.0
3.3
3.2
4.0
3.1
4.3
4.3
2.3
-1.0
6.4
7.4
2.8
3.4
2.6

3.2
3.2
3.5
3.2
0.9
1.4
3.1
4.2
2.7
2.9
3.3
3.5
1.1
3.7
3.0
3.8
3.7
2.0

2.2
2.2
2.2
1.5
0.2
0.4
2.3
3.3
1.4
1.6
2.0
1.9
-0.3
1.5
1.5
1.6
2.6
1.2

19.8
1.2
0.2
1.4
0.4
1.1
1.1
0.5
3.6
2.3
6.1
2.6
8.6
56.3
7.0

19.0
0.9
0.3
1.4
0.6
1.2
1.2
0.7
4.0
1.5
6.0
2.6
6.9
63.0
4.9

21.1
0.6
0.3
1.4
0.6
1.1
1.3
0.8
3.6
1.0
7.9
3.8
6.6
63.2
4.5

20.5
0.5
0.2
1.4
0.7
1.1
1.2
0.8
3.6
0.8
8.1
3.6
6.8
64.9
3.9

19.2
0.4
0.2
1.4
0.8
1.0
1.1
0.7
3.5
0.6
7.6
3.4
6.4
67.5
3.5

35.0

30.1

31.5

36.1

39.4

-1.5

0.5

1.4

0.9

8.3

6.3

4.7

3.8

3.4

Energy sector
Source: GEM-E3

54

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
AUSTRIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

7.6
2.6
3.0

8.0
2.5
3.2

8.4
2.3
3.7

8.7
2.2
4.0

9.0
2.1
4.3

0.5
-0.3
0.8

0.5
-1.0
1.5

0.4
-0.4
0.8

0.3
-0.4
0.7

174.5
101.2
154.4
31.1
1.6
0.9
1.6
0.4
2.6
2.4
1.1
3.5
1.9
11.6
4.9
11.7
104.2
3.9

225.0
123.5
201.4
38.8
2.0
1.3
2.4
1.0
2.5
3.4
1.5
4.2
1.4
15.5
6.2
15.0
138.4
3.7

254.5
137.7
228.4
44.8
2.1
1.0
3.5
1.5
2.4
3.6
1.8
4.8
1.2
19.8
6.4
14.9
158.6
3.3

310.4
167.1
279.9
54.7
2.5
1.2
4.5
2.3
2.9
4.1
2.0
5.8
1.2
24.9
7.7
17.8
196.0
3.5

363.5
192.8
328.6
64.3
2.8
1.4
5.4
3.2
3.3
4.6
2.1
6.8
1.1
29.9
8.9
21.0
230.4
3.9

2.6
2.0
2.7
2.2
2.0
3.3
4.3
9.2
-0.5
3.2
2.6
1.7
-3.1
3.0
2.4
2.5
2.9
-0.5

1.2
1.1
1.3
1.5
0.7
-2.4
3.8
4.4
-0.2
0.6
1.7
1.3
-1.8
2.5
0.5
0.0
1.4
-1.1

2.0
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.6
2.1
2.6
4.2
1.7
1.3
1.1
2.0
0.1
2.3
1.8
1.8
2.1
0.7

1.6
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.1
1.6
1.9
3.3
1.5
1.1
0.9
1.7
-0.4
1.8
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.0

20.1
1.1
0.6
1.0
0.3
1.7
1.6
0.7
2.3
1.2
7.5
3.1
7.6
67.5
2.5

19.2
1.0
0.6
1.2
0.5
1.2
1.7
0.7
2.1
0.7
7.7
3.1
7.4
68.8
1.8

19.6
0.9
0.4
1.5
0.7
1.1
1.6
0.8
2.1
0.5
8.7
2.8
6.5
69.4
1.5

19.5
0.9
0.4
1.6
0.8
1.0
1.5
0.7
2.1
0.4
8.9
2.7
6.4
70.0
1.3

19.6
0.9
0.4
1.6
1.0
1.0
1.4
0.7
2.1
0.3
9.1
2.7
6.4
70.1
1.2

3.5

5.5

6.8

7.8

9.0

4.6

2.1

1.5

1.4

2.3

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.8

2010

2020

BELGIUM: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

9.9
2.6
3.9

10.2
2.4
4.2

10.8
2.3
4.7

11.3
2.2
5.1

11.7
2.1
5.5

0.3
-0.6
0.9

0.5
-0.5
1.0

0.5
-0.4
0.9

0.4
-0.4
0.7

221.2
121.3
208.0
38.5
3.6
1.8
5.5
1.7
2.4
2.9
1.1
5.7
2.3
10.9
3.5
10.8
151.3
1.9

278.8
150.7
248.0
44.0
2.8
1.6
8.7
2.4
2.4
3.2
1.9
5.6
2.3
13.5
4.0
12.1
182.1
2.6

311.4
160.1
272.9
43.4
2.3
1.3
8.4
3.0
2.2
3.7
2.3
6.5
1.5
12.8
4.7
14.4
206.0
2.1

389.5
188.3
346.2
57.6
2.8
1.5
11.1
4.6
3.0
5.1
3.4
8.6
1.7
17.5
6.3
16.6
261.6
2.5

458.5
215.9
407.6
66.0
2.9
1.6
12.9
6.2
3.3
6.0
4.1
9.7
1.6
20.6
7.3
18.3
312.3
2.6

2.3
2.2
1.8
1.3
-2.2
-1.2
4.6
3.5
0.1
0.8
5.9
-0.2
0.0
2.2
1.4
1.2
1.9
3.2

1.1
0.6
1.0
-0.1
-2.2
-2.4
-0.3
2.4
-0.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
-3.7
-0.5
1.6
1.8
1.2
-2.1

2.3
1.6
2.4
2.9
1.9
2.0
2.8
4.4
3.0
3.5
4.1
2.8
1.2
3.1
3.0
1.4
2.4
1.7

1.6
1.4
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.6
1.6
3.0
1.1
1.6
1.9
1.2
-0.6
1.6
1.4
1.0
1.8
0.1

18.5
1.7
0.9
2.7
0.8
1.1
1.4
0.5
2.8
1.1
5.2
1.7
5.2
72.8
0.9

17.8
1.1
0.6
3.5
1.0
1.0
1.3
0.8
2.3
0.9
5.4
1.6
4.9
73.4
1.1

15.9
0.8
0.5
3.1
1.1
0.8
1.3
0.8
2.4
0.6
4.7
1.7
5.3
75.5
0.8

16.6
0.8
0.4
3.2
1.3
0.9
1.5
1.0
2.5
0.5
5.0
1.8
4.8
75.6
0.7

16.2
0.7
0.4
3.2
1.5
0.8
1.5
1.0
2.4
0.4
5.0
1.8
4.5
76.6
0.6

5.4

7.2

6.9

7.8

8.5

2.8

-0.3

1.2

0.8

2.6

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.1

BULGARIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

8.8
2.9
3.1

8.2
2.7
3.1

7.6
2.6
2.9

7.2
2.5
2.9

6.8
2.4
2.8

-0.7
-0.7
0.0

-0.8
-0.3
-0.5

-0.5
-0.3
-0.2

-0.6
-0.3
-0.3

20.1
12.8
18.4
3.8
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.9
1.4
1.1
8.6
3.9

16.9
11.5
14.3
2.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.7
8.5
1.7

25.8
17.9
20.8
3.7
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.6
1.0
12.9
1.8

34.7
20.7
29.1
6.0
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.5
0.4
0.3
1.2
0.9
1.5
1.0
1.4
17.8
1.9

42.2
21.1
35.4
7.7
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5
0.4
1.6
0.9
2.2
1.2
1.6
22.0
1.6

-1.7
-1.1
-2.5
-5.4
-4.0
1.3
-2.3
10.4
-0.1
-7.5
-4.5
0.7
4.2
-6.1
-15.3
-4.5
-0.2
-7.9

4.3
4.5
3.8
5.5
-4.1
3.7
1.1
0.0
13.8
8.7
9.6
2.9
7.7
6.0
8.0
3.7
4.3
0.4

3.0
1.4
3.4
4.8
2.6
2.8
4.3
5.6
4.2
5.0
6.0
5.7
3.1
5.9
5.2
3.4
3.3
0.6

2.0
0.2
2.0
2.5
0.0
0.3
3.3
4.5
1.4
2.2
3.0
2.9
0.2
4.0
2.5
1.1
2.1
-1.6

20.9
1.3
0.5
1.4
0.2
0.5
1.2
0.5
2.6
1.1
4.7
7.6
6.1
46.9
21.0

15.4
1.1
0.8
1.5
0.8
0.6
0.7
0.4
3.5
2.1
3.2
1.9
4.9
59.1
11.9

18.0
0.5
0.8
1.1
0.5
1.5
1.1
0.7
3.2
3.0
4.0
2.8
4.9
61.7
8.5

20.6
0.5
0.7
1.2
0.6
1.6
1.3
0.9
4.0
2.9
5.0
3.3
4.9
61.0
6.5

21.7
0.4
0.6
1.4
0.8
1.5
1.4
1.0
4.4
2.5
6.1
3.5
4.5
62.0
4.5

0.9

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.6

3.0

1.5

3.6

2.5

5.0

8.6

6.8

7.0

7.3

Source: GEM-E3

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

55

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
CYPRUS: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)

0.6
3.3
0.2

0.7
3.1
0.2

0.8
2.8
0.3

1.0
2.5
0.4

1.1
2.3
0.5

1.9
-0.5
2.4

1.7
-1.0
2.8

1.5
-0.9
2.5

1.2
-0.8
2.0

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)


Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture

7.5
4.1
6.7
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.9
4.4
0.3

11.7
7.4
10.5
1.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.8
8.1
0.4

15.6
9.9
14.0
1.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.1
11.0
0.4

22.5
14.6
20.3
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.6
16.1
0.5

30.9
20.1
27.8
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.2
1.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
2.0
22.4
0.6

4.6
6.0
4.6
1.4

2.9
3.0
2.9
1.5

3.8
3.9
3.8
3.2

3.2
3.3
3.2
2.6

5.9
6.6
-1.5
28.8
41.2
4.6
-8.6
0.0
0.8
-0.9
6.3
0.2

0.7
1.2
3.9
1.4
2.0
2.4
-6.6
2.0
0.4
3.7
3.1
0.5

3.6
3.8
2.5
3.8
4.1
4.4
2.2
2.2
1.1
3.3
3.9
2.6

Energy sector

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.6

2.0

4.0

3.6

3.0
3.2
1.8
3.2
3.6
3.8
1.3
1.3
-0.5
2.8
3.4
2.0

14.1
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.4
1.9
0.1
0.0
3.7
2.9
2.1
2.8
12.8
65.4
5.2

10.3
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.5
1.1
0.8
0.6
3.7
0.7
1.4
1.9
7.4
77.0
3.4

8.9
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.4
1.2
0.7
0.5
3.5
0.3
1.2
1.5
8.0
78.3
2.7

8.4
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.4
1.0
0.7
0.6
3.7
0.2
1.1
1.1
7.7
79.5
2.4

7.9
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.4
0.9
0.7
0.6
4.0
0.2
0.9
0.8
7.4
80.6
2.1

3.0

2.4

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.0

CZECH REPUBLIC: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)

10.4
2.9
3.6

10.3
2.6
3.9

10.4
2.3
4.5

10.5
2.2
4.7

10.4
2.2
4.8

-0.1
-0.9
0.8

0.1
-1.1
1.2

0.1
-0.4
0.6

-0.1
-0.3
0.1

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)


Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture

81.3
38.0
66.4
15.1
1.3
0.1
1.1
0.3
1.0
1.6
0.8
2.6
2.0
3.5
2.0
11.1
29.0
1.3

83.4
42.1
74.6
17.7
1.4
0.2
0.9
0.3
1.4
1.1
0.5
3.0
0.8
6.8
2.3
5.6
43.9
2.2

114.3
55.2
101.4
27.6
1.5
0.2
1.5
0.6
1.8
1.4
0.8
3.2
0.9
13.0
4.2
6.0
60.2
2.9

154.2
73.8
138.0
36.5
1.6
0.2
2.2
1.0
2.2
1.9
1.2
4.4
1.0
17.5
5.5
8.3
84.7
3.5

182.5
86.7
163.4
42.1
1.7
0.2
2.8
1.4
2.5
2.2
1.4
5.3
0.9
20.0
6.4
9.7
102.5
3.7

0.3
1.0
1.2
1.6
0.9
3.4
-2.4
1.8
3.1
-4.1
-3.8
1.3
-8.5
7.0
1.5
-6.6
4.2
5.1

3.2
2.7
3.1
4.5
0.4
0.3
5.6
6.4
2.8
2.9
4.3
0.7
1.1
6.7
6.3
0.7
3.2
2.9

3.0
2.9
3.1
2.8
1.0
1.2
3.7
4.9
2.3
2.8
3.4
3.3
1.0
3.0
2.8
3.2
3.5
1.8

1.7
1.6
1.7
1.4
0.3
0.5
2.8
3.9
1.0
1.6
2.1
1.9
-0.6
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.9
0.7

22.8
1.9
0.2
1.7
0.4
1.5
2.4
1.2
3.9
3.0
5.2
2.9
16.7
43.6
2.0

23.8
1.9
0.3
1.2
0.4
1.8
1.4
0.7
4.0
1.1
9.1
3.1
7.5
58.9
2.9

27.2
1.4
0.2
1.5
0.6
1.8
1.4
0.8
3.1
0.9
12.8
4.1
5.9
59.4
2.8

26.4
1.2
0.2
1.6
0.7
1.6
1.3
0.8
3.2
0.7
12.7
4.0
6.0
61.3
2.5

25.7
1.0
0.2
1.7
0.9
1.5
1.3
0.9
3.3
0.6
12.2
3.9
5.9
62.7
2.3

9.9

5.1

4.7

5.1

5.5

-6.4

-1.0

1.0

0.6

15.0

6.9

4.6

3.7

3.3

Energy sector

DENMARK: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

5.1
2.3
2.2

5.3
2.2
2.4

5.5
2.1
2.6

5.7
2.1
2.8

5.8
2.0
2.9

0.4
-0.4
0.7

0.3
-0.4
0.7

0.3
-0.4
0.7

0.3
-0.4
0.7

150.8
74.3
132.4
20.6
0.4
0.1
1.1
0.7
1.0
2.1
1.3
4.9
0.8
7.0
3.1
8.9
97.2
1.8

194.8
89.6
168.0
23.5
0.5
0.2
2.6
2.2
1.1
2.2
1.6
4.5
0.6
8.5
3.3
9.9
122.5
2.7

209.0
97.4
177.5
24.7
0.2
0.1
3.5
3.1
1.0
2.2
1.7
4.4
0.4
9.3
3.5
8.9
131.6
2.6

245.9
112.9
210.1
28.2
0.2
0.1
4.2
3.7
1.1
2.6
2.0
5.0
0.3
10.7
3.9
10.6
157.5
2.8

289.6
133.2
247.5
33.0
0.2
0.2
5.1
4.6
1.3
3.0
2.4
5.9
0.3
12.4
4.6
12.7
186.4
3.1

2.6
1.9
2.4
1.3
1.0
3.4
9.2
11.5
0.7
0.3
2.5
-0.9
-2.2
2.0
0.5
1.1
2.3
4.3

0.7
0.8
0.6
0.5
-7.2
-3.7
3.0
3.6
-0.8
0.4
0.5
-0.2
-5.6
0.9
0.7
-1.1
0.7
-0.6

1.6
1.5
1.7
1.3
-0.3
0.3
1.8
1.9
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.3
-1.0
1.4
1.0
1.8
1.8
0.9

1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
0.3
0.8
2.0
2.1
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
-1.0
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.7
1.0

15.6
0.3
0.1
0.8
0.6
0.8
1.6
1.0
3.7
0.6
5.3
2.4
6.7
73.5
1.3

14.0
0.3
0.1
1.6
1.3
0.6
1.3
1.0
2.7
0.4
5.1
2.0
5.9
72.9
1.6

13.9
0.1
0.1
2.0
1.7
0.6
1.3
1.0
2.5
0.2
5.2
2.0
5.0
74.2
1.4

13.4
0.1
0.1
2.0
1.8
0.5
1.2
0.9
2.4
0.2
5.1
1.9
5.1
75.0
1.3

13.3
0.1
0.1
2.1
1.9
0.5
1.2
1.0
2.4
0.1
5.0
1.8
5.1
75.3
1.2

3.9

9.4

9.7

11.0

12.3

9.2

0.3

1.2

1.1

2.9

5.6

5.5

5.2

5.0

Source: GEM-E3

56

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
ESTONIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)

1.6
2.6
0.6

1.4
2.4
0.6

1.3
2.2
0.6

1.3
2.1
0.6

1.3
2.0
0.6

-1.3
-0.6
-0.7

-0.3
-0.9
0.6

-0.2
-0.4
0.2

-0.3
-0.4
0.1

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)


Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture

8.3
3.9
7.1
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.5
0.2
3.6
0.8

7.6
3.9
6.7
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
4.5
0.4

11.2
5.3
9.2
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.6
5.9
0.3

15.4
6.7
13.4
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.3
1.0
0.9
1.0
8.7
0.3

19.4
8.0
16.8
3.9
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.3
1.3
1.2
1.1
11.0
0.3

-0.9
-0.1
-0.6
-4.7
-8.9

3.9
3.1
3.2
7.7
-18.3

8.0
15.0
14.3
-6.5
-5.6
-5.0
-11.6
8.1
-7.5
6.4
2.4
-6.6

8.0
23.5
8.4
5.3
6.6
4.8
4.3
9.3
9.6
2.6
2.7
-3.6

3.3
2.4
3.8
4.0
-2.5
2.3
6.5
8.1
3.2
3.6
3.8
3.9
2.2
4.5
4.0
4.8
3.8
0.4

2.3
1.7
2.3
2.6
-6.6
1.5
3.3
4.7
1.5
1.9
2.1
2.9
1.1
2.4
3.1
1.5
2.4
0.8

21.9
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.6
0.4
4.3
7.5
1.7
7.2
3.5
50.0
10.6

14.3
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.9
0.4
0.2
2.7
2.3
3.9
3.5
6.8
67.2
5.7

22.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.1
1.4
0.4
0.3
3.1
2.6
6.9
6.5
6.4
64.4
2.9

22.5
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.2
1.3
0.4
0.3
3.2
2.2
7.4
6.6
7.1
64.6
2.0

23.0
0.0
0.0
1.5
0.3
1.2
0.4
0.3
3.4
2.0
7.5
7.1
6.6
65.5
1.8

Energy sector

1.0

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

-8.6

-0.1

2.3

0.5

14.0

6.0

4.3

3.8

3.1

2010

2020

FINLAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)

5.0

5.2

5.3

5.5

5.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.1

Average household size (persons)

2.5

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.9

-0.8

-0.8

-0.4

-0.4

Number of households (Million)

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

1.2

1.1

0.7

0.5

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)

114.0

138.8

165.5

201.4

233.5

2.0

1.8

2.0

1.5

Households expenditure (in 000 M05)

61.6

69.4

82.5

97.6

113.3

1.2

1.7

1.7

1.5

Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)

99.4

122.1

142.7

175.5

203.4

2.1

1.6

2.1

1.5

Industry

15.2

25.6

32.6

40.1

44.9

5.3

2.4

2.1

1.1

15.3

21.0

22.8

22.9

22.1

iron and steel

0.5

1.1

1.4

1.6

1.8

7.8

2.7

1.6

0.7

0.5

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.9

non ferrous metals

0.4

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

4.6

-1.5

1.7

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

chemicals

1.2

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.3

3.8

1.1

1.1

0.2

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.1

0.2
0.8
3.8
1.4
1.4
0.8
3.9
2.3
10.1
67.4
4.4

0.3
0.9
5.6
1.1
1.6
0.6
10.1
3.2
7.7
81.7
4.0

0.4
1.1
5.5
1.6
2.4
0.5
15.7
3.5
7.9
94.7
3.8

0.5
1.3
6.6
2.2
3.0
0.5
20.3
3.9
9.6
117.1
4.3

0.6
1.4
7.4
2.7
3.4
0.4
23.3
4.2
11.0
138.2
4.4

3.6
0.3
3.9
-2.2
1.9
-3.4
9.9
3.5
-2.6
1.9
-1.0

2.3
2.3
-0.3
3.6
3.9
-2.1
4.5
0.8
0.2
1.5
-0.4

2.1
1.7
1.9
3.2
2.1
0.1
2.6
1.3
2.0
2.1
1.0

1.1
0.9
1.2
1.9
1.3
-0.8
1.4
0.5
1.3
1.7
0.4

0.2
0.9
3.9
1.4
1.4
0.8
4.0
2.3
10.1
67.8
4.4

0.3
0.7
4.6
0.9
1.4
0.5
8.3
2.6
6.3
66.9
3.3

0.3
0.8
3.8
1.1
1.7
0.3
11.0
2.4
5.5
66.3
2.7

0.3
0.7
3.8
1.3
1.7
0.3
11.5
2.2
5.5
66.7
2.4

0.3
0.7
3.7
1.3
1.7
0.2
11.5
2.0
5.4
68.0
2.2

2.3

3.1

3.7

4.4

4.9

2.9

2.0

1.7

1.0

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.4

2010

2020

pharmaceuticals and cosmetics


non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

FRANCE: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

56.6
2.6
21.8

58.8
2.4
24.7

62.6
2.3
27.7

65.6
2.2
30.5

68.0
2.1
32.4

0.4
-0.8
1.2

0.6
-0.5
1.2

0.5
-0.5
1.0

0.4
-0.3
0.6

1302.7
734.7
1169.9
146.0
4.9
1.9
15.8
6.6
6.2
13.7
8.7
21.9
10.1
56.0
15.5
88.6
882.7
29.6

1589.7
871.6
1429.0
189.6
7.7
4.6
18.5
9.6
8.6
16.5
10.2
27.1
8.4
77.4
20.8
82.8
1094.2
35.6

1759.1
975.2
1581.4
201.5
6.3
3.4
20.4
12.0
7.9
15.9
10.6
30.1
7.5
84.8
25.1
82.1
1233.5
32.9

2144.4
1165.1
1926.3
238.4
6.6
3.6
24.1
15.6
8.9
17.4
12.2
35.9
7.1
105.0
29.8
94.2
1523.0
32.6

2550.1
1346.9
2290.9
282.7
7.3
4.1
28.7
20.2
10.2
19.3
14.1
42.6
6.5
128.6
35.3
108.8
1822.2
34.3

2.0
1.7
2.0
2.7
4.6
9.3
1.6
3.8
3.3
1.9
1.7
2.2
-1.8
3.3
3.0
-0.7
2.2
1.9

1.0
1.1
1.0
0.6
-2.0
-3.0
1.0
2.2
-0.9
-0.4
0.4
1.1
-1.2
0.9
1.9
-0.1
1.2
-0.8

2.0
1.8
2.0
1.7
0.4
0.6
1.7
2.6
1.2
0.9
1.3
1.8
-0.5
2.2
1.7
1.4
2.1
-0.1

1.7
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.1
1.3
1.8
2.6
1.4
1.0
1.5
1.7
-1.0
2.0
1.7
1.4
1.8
0.5

12.5
0.4
0.2
1.3
0.6
0.5
1.2
0.7
1.9
0.9
4.8
1.3
7.6
75.5
2.5

13.3
0.5
0.3
1.3
0.7
0.6
1.2
0.7
1.9
0.6
5.4
1.5
5.8
76.6
2.5

12.7
0.4
0.2
1.3
0.8
0.5
1.0
0.7
1.9
0.5
5.4
1.6
5.2
78.0
2.1

12.4
0.3
0.2
1.3
0.8
0.5
0.9
0.6
1.9
0.4
5.5
1.5
4.9
79.1
1.7

12.3
0.3
0.2
1.3
0.9
0.4
0.8
0.6
1.9
0.3
5.6
1.5
4.7
79.5
1.5

23.0

26.9

31.3

38.0

42.9

1.6

1.5

1.9

1.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.9

Source: GEM-E3

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

57

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
GERMANY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

79.1
2.4
33.7

82.2
2.2
36.7

82.1
2.1
40.0

81.5
2.0
40.5

80.2
2.0
40.3

0.4
-0.5
0.9

0.0
-0.9
0.9

-0.1
-0.2
0.1

-0.2
-0.1
-0.1

1830.3
1084.6
1611.4
395.0
14.3
5.5
32.1
7.9
12.5
31.6
22.1
38.9
15.6
189.6
54.9
104.2
1045.8
15.4

2177.2
1305.7
1943.1
425.1
14.6
10.0
39.5
11.2
14.7
34.2
21.3
39.1
9.6
219.2
44.2
101.2
1349.8
17.3

2281.5
1325.8
2063.5
463.9
14.5
8.9
50.6
18.3
12.3
30.5
19.2
37.5
6.7
261.5
41.4
70.7
1459.7
17.1

2723.6
1570.4
2440.9
544.8
16.7
10.4
58.9
24.3
13.5
34.6
22.5
43.8
6.7
312.6
47.6
81.9
1740.6
19.0

3008.8
1733.4
2696.5
593.2
18.0
11.5
65.0
30.1
14.3
38.1
25.5
49.4
6.4
337.9
52.7
89.4
1937.2
19.9

1.8
1.9
1.9
0.7
0.2
6.2
2.1
3.5
1.7
0.8
-0.3
0.0
-4.8
1.5
-2.2
-0.3
2.6
1.2

0.5
0.2
0.6
0.9
-0.1
-1.1
2.5
5.0
-1.8
-1.1
-1.1
-0.4
-3.5
1.8
-0.6
-3.5
0.8
-0.1

1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.6
1.5
2.9
0.9
1.3
1.6
1.6
0.0
1.8
1.4
1.5
1.8
1.1

1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.0
2.2
0.6
1.0
1.3
1.2
-0.6
0.8
1.0
0.9
1.1
0.4

24.5
0.9
0.3
2.0
0.5
0.8
2.0
1.4
2.4
1.0
11.8
3.4
6.5
64.9
1.0

21.9
0.8
0.5
2.0
0.6
0.8
1.8
1.1
2.0
0.5
11.3
2.3
5.2
69.5
0.9

22.5
0.7
0.4
2.5
0.9
0.6
1.5
0.9
1.8
0.3
12.7
2.0
3.4
70.7
0.8

22.3
0.7
0.4
2.4
1.0
0.6
1.4
0.9
1.8
0.3
12.8
2.0
3.4
71.3
0.8

22.0
0.7
0.4
2.4
1.1
0.5
1.4
0.9
1.8
0.2
12.5
2.0
3.3
71.8
0.7

50.9

49.7

52.0

54.5

56.7

-0.2

0.5

0.5

0.4

3.2

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.1

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

GREECE: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

10.1
3.0
3.3

10.9
2.8
3.9

11.3
2.7
4.2

11.6
2.5
4.6

11.6
2.4
4.8

0.7
-0.7
1.5

0.4
-0.5
0.9

0.2
-0.6
0.9

0.0
-0.5
0.5

127.6
98.1
107.9
14.8
0.3
0.8
1.7
0.6
0.9
1.1
0.8
3.6
3.0
1.6
1.8
6.6
71.5
10.0

160.9
114.7
142.8
14.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
0.4
1.2
0.9
0.7
4.7
2.0
1.7
2.0
9.4
104.2
9.4

219.4
152.4
194.7
18.8
0.6
0.6
1.2
0.7
1.3
1.6
1.3
5.8
1.6
3.7
2.3
13.9
146.9
8.7

290.6
200.1
258.7
24.0
0.8
0.8
1.7
1.0
1.7
1.9
1.6
7.6
1.7
5.0
2.9
18.6
199.8
9.4

351.6
238.7
312.8
27.9
0.9
0.9
2.0
1.2
1.9
2.1
1.8
9.0
1.6
6.1
3.4
22.2
244.9
10.5

2.3
1.6
2.8
-0.5
1.4
-3.6
-8.9
-4.2
3.3
-1.7
-1.6
2.5
-4.1
0.8
0.9
3.6
3.8
-0.7

3.2
2.9
3.1
2.9
7.2
0.8
6.3
6.3
0.9
5.3
6.6
2.3
-2.3
7.8
1.5
4.0
3.5
-0.7

2.9
2.8
2.9
2.5
2.4
2.8
3.0
3.6
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.6
0.7
3.1
2.3
3.0
3.1
0.7

1.9
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.2
1.6
1.8
2.3
1.4
1.0
1.2
1.7
-0.5
2.0
1.4
1.8
2.1
1.1

13.7
0.2
0.7
1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
0.7
3.4
2.8
1.5
1.7
6.1
66.2
9.3

9.8
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.3
0.8
0.7
0.5
3.3
1.4
1.2
1.4
6.6
73.0
6.6

9.7
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.8
0.7
3.0
0.8
1.9
1.2
7.1
75.5
4.5

9.3
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.6
2.9
0.6
1.9
1.1
7.2
77.2
3.6

8.9
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.6
2.9
0.5
2.0
1.1
7.1
78.3
3.4

4.9

5.7

6.3

6.9

7.4

1.5

1.0

0.9

0.6

4.6

4.0

3.2

2.7

2.4

HUNGARY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)

10.4
2.6
4.0

10.2
2.4
4.3

10.0
2.3
4.4

9.9
2.2
4.6

9.7
2.1
4.6

-0.1
-1.0
0.9

-0.2
-0.5
0.3

-0.1
-0.4
0.3

-0.2
-0.4
0.2

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)


Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture

66.0
35.6
58.5
9.6
0.6
0.0
0.9
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.1
1.6
1.4
3.1
1.2
2.6
41.5
3.2

72.0
36.2
62.1
12.6
0.4
0.3
1.3
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.4
2.6
0.8
4.9
1.0
2.9
40.0
2.1

87.6
46.4
73.9
15.2
0.3
0.3
1.4
0.7
0.6
0.8
0.5
1.8
0.4
8.2
1.4
3.5
48.8
3.3

114.8
63.5
98.0
18.3
0.4
0.3
1.6
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.6
2.1
0.4
10.2
1.6
5.3
66.6
3.8

141.2
79.1
120.6
20.9
0.4
0.4
1.8
1.1
0.8
1.0
0.7
2.5
0.4
11.7
1.8
6.5
83.7
4.3

0.9
0.2
0.6
2.8
-5.1
29.7
4.3
8.6
2.7
8.4
9.5
5.1
-5.4
4.8
-2.3
1.3
-0.4
-4.3

2.0
2.5
1.8
1.9
-0.7
-1.5
0.5
2.6
-0.6
1.7
3.0
-3.5
-6.9
5.3
3.4
1.9
2.0
4.8

2.7
3.2
2.9
1.8
1.6
1.7
1.4
2.3
1.7
1.7
1.9
1.6
0.4
2.2
1.2
4.1
3.2
1.6

2.1
2.2
2.1
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.1
2.0
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.6
0.3
1.4
1.2
2.0
2.3
1.3

16.3
1.0
0.0
1.5
0.4
0.8
0.5
0.3
2.7
2.4
5.3
2.1
4.4
70.9
5.5

20.3
0.6
0.5
2.2
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.6
4.2
1.3
7.9
1.6
4.7
64.5
3.3

20.6
0.4
0.4
1.9
1.0
0.8
1.0
0.7
2.5
0.5
11.1
1.9
4.8
66.0
4.4

18.6
0.4
0.3
1.7
0.9
0.7
0.9
0.6
2.2
0.4
10.4
1.6
5.4
67.9
3.9

17.3
0.4
0.3
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.9
0.6
2.1
0.4
9.7
1.5
5.3
69.4
3.6

1.6

4.5

3.1

4.1

5.2

10.5

-3.5

2.7

2.5

2.8

7.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

Energy sector
Source: GEM-E3

58

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
IRELAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

3.5
3.4
1.0

3.8
3.0
1.3

4.6
2.8
1.6

5.4
2.7
2.0

5.9
2.5
2.3

0.7
-1.3
2.1

2.0
-0.6
2.7

1.6
-0.6
2.2

0.8
-0.5
1.4

61.2
34.2
57.2
7.6
0.1
0.1
1.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.1
2.0
0.7
2.2
0.5
4.4
42.4
2.4

123.7
59.2
107.8
22.8
0.1
0.1
8.2
1.9
1.0
1.2
1.1
3.5
0.4
7.1
1.2
9.9
71.7
2.6

158.8
78.2
140.5
32.2
0.0
0.2
13.6
3.2
0.5
3.7
3.5
4.8
0.2
7.5
1.5
7.5
96.9
2.7

221.7
99.5
195.7
43.5
0.0
0.3
17.1
4.4
0.6
4.7
4.4
7.1
0.2
11.3
2.1
10.4
137.2
3.2

285.9
119.4
252.4
54.2
0.0
0.3
20.0
5.6
0.7
5.7
5.4
9.5
0.2
15.2
2.6
12.3
180.8
3.4

7.3
5.6
6.5
11.6
5.2
-0.7
19.6
16.5
6.3
22.0
23.3
5.7
-5.9
12.6
8.6
8.4
5.4
0.9

2.5
2.8
2.7
3.5

3.4
2.4
3.4
3.1

2.6
1.8
2.6
2.2

9.8
5.2
5.1
-6.2
11.7
11.9
3.4
-5.0
0.5
2.7
-2.8
3.1
0.3

1.4
2.3
3.2
1.8
2.5
2.5
4.0
0.7
4.2
3.3
3.3
3.5
1.7

0.3

0.9

1.3

1.5

1.7

10.3

4.1

1.2

2010

2020

2.1
1.6
2.4
1.3
2.0
2.0
2.9
-1.7
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.8
0.6

13.3
0.1
0.2
2.4
0.7
0.9
0.3
0.2
3.5
1.2
3.8
0.9
7.8
74.2
4.2

21.1
0.1
0.1
7.6
1.8
0.9
1.1
1.0
3.2
0.3
6.6
1.1
9.2
66.4
2.4

22.9
0.0
0.2
9.7
2.3
0.4
2.6
2.5
3.4
0.2
5.3
1.1
5.3
68.9
1.9

22.2
0.0
0.1
8.7
2.2
0.3
2.4
2.3
3.6
0.1
5.8
1.1
5.3
70.1
1.6

21.5
0.0
0.1
7.9
2.2
0.3
2.3
2.2
3.7
0.1
6.0
1.0
4.9
71.6
1.3

1.3

0.6

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

ITALY: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

56.7
2.6
21.5

56.9
2.4
24.0

60.0
2.2
27.8

61.4
2.1
29.1

61.9
2.1
30.1

0.0
-1.1
1.1

0.5
-0.9
1.5

0.2
-0.2
0.4

0.1
-0.3
0.3

1168.7
688.6
1062.8
211.7
7.6
2.9
14.8
6.9
13.4
13.2
7.9
21.5
29.1
82.1
27.0
70.1
729.7
22.3

1367.8
812.5
1227.6
244.4
8.6
4.7
16.9
7.1
13.7
15.1
8.7
25.7
30.6
96.1
33.1
67.6
856.3
28.3

1403.5
846.3
1264.7
220.5
8.5
4.1
15.9
7.2
12.4
14.2
9.1
23.8
23.8
89.6
28.0
71.6
913.6
26.1

1678.7
1036.0
1518.2
259.7
9.5
5.1
19.4
9.5
13.2
17.7
11.9
28.4
22.2
110.1
34.1
79.9
1115.5
27.1

1974.0
1192.1
1792.4
320.4
10.7
6.4
24.3
12.9
14.6
23.0
16.0
36.7
21.5
137.9
45.1
85.9
1316.3
29.3

1.6
1.7
1.5
1.4
1.2
5.0
1.3
0.2
0.2
1.3
1.0
1.8
0.5
1.6
2.0
-0.4
1.6
2.4

0.3
0.4
0.3
-1.0
-0.1
-1.3
-0.6
0.2
-1.0
-0.6
0.4
-0.7
-2.5
-0.7
-1.6
0.6
0.7
-0.8

1.8
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.1
2.2
2.0
2.8
0.7
2.2
2.7
1.8
-0.7
2.1
2.0
1.1
2.0
0.4

1.6
1.4
1.7
2.1
1.2
2.3
2.3
3.1
1.0
2.6
3.1
2.6
-0.3
2.3
2.8
0.7
1.7
0.8

19.9
0.7
0.3
1.4
0.7
1.3
1.2
0.7
2.0
2.7
7.7
2.5
6.6
68.7
2.1

19.9
0.7
0.4
1.4
0.6
1.1
1.2
0.7
2.1
2.5
7.8
2.7
5.5
69.8
2.3

17.4
0.7
0.3
1.3
0.6
1.0
1.1
0.7
1.9
1.9
7.1
2.2
5.7
72.2
2.1

17.1
0.6
0.3
1.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
0.8
1.9
1.5
7.3
2.2
5.3
73.5
1.8

17.9
0.6
0.4
1.4
0.7
0.8
1.3
0.9
2.0
1.2
7.7
2.5
4.8
73.4
1.6

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.9

40.5

0.7

0.6

0.9

1.2

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.3

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

LATVIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

2.7
2.7
1.0

2.4
2.6
0.9

2.2
2.5
0.9

2.2
2.4
0.9

2.0
2.3
0.9

-1.1
-0.5
-0.6

-0.6
-0.4
-0.2

-0.4
-0.4
0.0

-0.6
-0.4
-0.2

12.5
7.5
10.1
2.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.6
0.2
1.9
4.9
0.6

8.8
5.3
7.7
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
5.7
0.4

12.9
7.5
11.1
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.5
8.6
0.4

17.4
10.8
15.3
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.8
12.3
0.3

21.0
13.3
18.4
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.9
15.2
0.4

-3.5
-3.4
-2.6
-7.6
-7.3
-8.3
47.0
-6.6
-13.6
-13.6
-7.4
-10.1
-11.3
5.3
-14.5
1.5
-4.5

3.9
3.5
3.7
3.1
7.0
10.0
8.3
11.1
4.0
4.2
4.9
0.6
0.5
0.6
5.6
3.0
4.2
-0.6

3.0
3.6
3.2
1.4
-3.6
-3.3
3.8
4.3
1.3
2.1
2.3
1.6
0.2
3.4
0.8
3.9
3.6
-0.7

1.9
2.1
1.9
1.0
-1.2
-0.9
2.4
2.9
0.2
1.1
1.2
1.6
0.1
0.6
0.8
0.9
2.1
0.8

22.1
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.6
3.7
2.9
6.0
3.3
5.8
1.6
19.1
48.7
5.9

13.1
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.4
1.1
0.9
3.6
1.5
2.3
3.5
5.2
73.7
4.8

12.3
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.4
0.4
1.2
1.0
2.6
1.1
1.7
4.1
4.9
77.4
3.2

10.3
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.3
1.1
0.9
2.3
0.8
1.7
3.3
5.2
80.7
2.1

9.5
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.3
1.0
0.8
2.2
0.7
1.5
2.9
4.7
82.6
1.9

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

-5.3

0.2

-0.1

0.0

4.2

3.2

2.2

1.6

1.3

Source: GEM-E3

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

59

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
LITHUANIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

3.7
2.9
1.3

3.5
2.8
1.3

3.3
2.6
1.3

3.2
2.5
1.3

3.1
2.4
1.3

-0.5
-0.4
-0.1

-0.5
-0.7
0.2

-0.4
-0.4
0.0

-0.4
-0.4
0.0

19.4
11.7
17.1
3.9
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
1.1
1.1
0.6
0.4
2.0
7.8
1.3

14.3
8.8
13.0
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.8
8.4
0.8

21.5
13.0
19.4
4.3
0.0
0.0
0.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.2
1.3
12.0
0.8

30.3
18.1
27.4
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
1.2
0.5
1.7
1.6
2.0
17.5
0.8

36.3
21.4
32.8
6.6
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
1.4
0.5
1.8
1.9
2.2
22.1
0.7

-3.0
-2.8
-2.7
-4.9
3.8

4.1
4.0
4.1
6.1
-1.7

3.5
3.3
3.5
3.3
-1.0

1.8
1.7
1.8
1.0
-2.2

-1.0
-7.0
-3.1
-5.9
-3.6
-5.6
-7.5
-4.8
-0.2
-8.5
0.8
-4.5

4.6
4.2
7.2
2.5
3.0
3.9
-0.6
10.7
11.5
5.0
3.6
0.1

2.3
3.6
3.0
3.2
3.4
2.9
0.9
5.0
3.4
4.4
3.9
-0.3

2.1

0.6

1.0

1.1

1.2

-12.4

5.6

1.5

1.7
2.9
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
-1.2
0.9
1.6
0.7
2.4
-1.0

22.9
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.2
0.7
1.9
1.1
6.5
6.6
3.5
2.3
11.6
45.6
7.5

18.3
0.1
0.0
1.4
0.1
0.7
1.4
1.0
4.8
4.0
2.8
3.0
6.3
64.9
6.2

22.2
0.1
0.0
1.5
0.2
0.9
1.2
0.9
4.7
2.5
5.2
6.0
6.8
61.7
4.2

21.8
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.2
0.9
1.2
0.9
4.4
1.9
6.0
5.9
7.4
63.8
2.9

20.1
0.0
0.0
1.3
0.2
0.8
1.0
0.8
4.2
1.4
5.5
5.8
6.6
67.4
2.2

0.7

12.5

4.4

5.1

4.2

3.7

LUXEMBOURG: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

0.4
2.7
0.1

0.4
2.5
0.2

0.5
2.4
0.2

0.6
2.3
0.2

0.6
2.2
0.3

1.3
-0.6
2.0

1.3
-0.5
1.8

1.1
-0.4
1.5

1.0
-0.4
1.3

13.6
6.9
14.2
1.7
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.9
11.3
0.1

25.4
9.9
22.6
2.4
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.6
0.3
1.3
18.6
0.2

32.6
11.4
29.1
2.6
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.4
1.8
24.3
0.1

47.3
16.8
42.3
3.6
0.8
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.6
2.6
35.6
0.2

59.4
21.1
53.1
4.3
0.9
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.9
0.8
3.2
45.0
0.2

6.5
3.7
4.8
3.7
4.9

2.5
1.4
2.6
0.8
-1.3

3.8
4.0
3.8
3.3
2.7

2.3
2.3
2.3
1.7
1.0

10.3

2.6

3.3

1.8

2.3
2.7
2.7
-1.8
4.0
3.3
7.1
3.2
5.1
1.5

2.6
4.0
4.0
3.3
3.3
-1.7
3.1
3.5
2.7
-2.9

2.6
4.3
4.3
3.8
1.6
3.3
4.1
3.7
3.9
3.4

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.5

4.2

3.3

2.9

2010

2020

1.0
2.8
2.8
2.3
-0.5
1.8
2.6
2.2
2.4
1.9

11.7
3.1
0.0
0.2
0.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
1.7
0.6
3.1
1.1
6.5
79.7
1.0

10.5
3.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.6
2.7
1.4
5.6
82.1
0.7

8.9
2.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.9
0.7
1.8
1.5
6.1
83.4
0.4

8.5
1.9
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
0.5
1.7
1.5
6.1
84.0
0.4

8.0
1.7
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.6
0.8
0.8
1.0
0.4
1.6
1.6
6.0
84.6
0.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.1

1.0

MALTA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)

0.4
3.2
0.1

0.4
2.9
0.1

0.4
2.6
0.2

0.4
2.4
0.2

0.4
2.2
0.2

0.8
-0.8
1.6

0.8
-1.0
1.9

0.3
-0.9
1.3

0.1
-0.8
1.0

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)


Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture

2.9
1.8
2.6
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.6
0.1
1.8
0.1

4.5
2.9
4.0
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.9
0.2
2.8
0.1

5.2
3.3
4.4
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.8
0.2
3.3
0.1

6.8
4.4
5.8
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0
0.2
4.4
0.1

8.3
5.4
7.1
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.3
5.4
0.1

4.6
4.7
4.5
4.9

1.3
1.4
1.0
-1.6

2.7
2.9
2.7
2.7

2.0
2.1
2.0
2.0

4.9
2.6
4.6
2.5

-1.6
0.5
1.8
1.7

2.7
2.7
2.8
1.4

Energy sector

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

6.5

-4.2

2.4

2.0
2.0
2.1
0.5

21.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
21.9
4.9
68.8
2.9

22.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
22.6
4.1
69.1
2.3

17.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.5
3.9
75.0
2.5

17.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.4
3.9
75.5
2.2

17.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
17.3
3.9
75.9
1.9

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.1

1.0

1.0

Source: GEM-E3

60

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
THE NETHERLANDS: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

14.9
2.5
6.0

15.9
2.4
6.8

16.5
2.2
7.6

16.9
2.1
8.0

17.2
2.1
8.3

0.6
-0.6
1.2

0.4
-0.7
1.1

0.2
-0.3
0.6

0.2
-0.1
0.3

347.5
173.0
317.2
53.5
0.3
1.0
6.9
0.8
2.3
7.3
5.0
9.8
1.5
17.3
7.0
24.7
215.1
7.5

480.8
239.3
425.8
61.7
0.3
0.9
8.2
1.7
2.2
8.0
5.7
11.5
1.4
21.0
8.4
26.4
310.2
9.3

539.5
257.4
475.5
62.6
0.3
0.9
11.2
1.7
1.9
7.1
5.1
12.2
1.1
19.1
8.8
23.3
356.9
9.4

637.9
313.1
565.6
69.6
0.4
1.0
11.9
1.9
2.0
7.8
5.6
13.4
1.0
22.6
9.5
27.8
434.3
9.4

726.3
357.6
644.0
75.3
0.4
1.1
12.9
2.2
2.2
8.7
6.3
14.4
0.9
24.8
10.0
31.7
501.7
9.8

3.3
3.3
3.0
1.4
0.4
-1.4
1.6
8.1
-0.9
1.0
1.3
1.5
-0.9
2.0
1.7
0.7
3.7
2.2

1.2
0.7
1.1
0.1
1.1
-0.5
3.2
-0.4
-1.5
-1.2
-1.1
0.6
-2.3
-0.9
0.5
-1.3
1.4
0.1

1.7
2.0
1.8
1.1
1.2
1.3
0.6
1.4
0.8
0.9
1.0
0.9
-0.6
1.7
0.7
1.8
2.0
0.0

1.3
1.3
1.3
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.8
1.4
1.0
1.1
1.1
0.7
-1.0
0.9
0.5
1.3
1.5
0.4

16.9
0.1
0.3
2.2
0.2
0.7
2.3
1.6
3.1
0.5
5.4
2.2
7.8
67.8
2.4

14.5
0.1
0.2
1.9
0.4
0.5
1.9
1.3
2.7
0.3
4.9
2.0
6.2
72.8
2.2

13.2
0.1
0.2
2.4
0.3
0.4
1.5
1.1
2.6
0.2
4.0
1.9
4.9
75.1
2.0

12.3
0.1
0.2
2.1
0.3
0.4
1.4
1.0
2.4
0.2
4.0
1.7
4.9
76.8
1.7

11.7
0.1
0.2
2.0
0.3
0.3
1.3
1.0
2.2
0.1
3.9
1.6
4.9
77.9
1.5

16.4

18.2

23.2

24.5

25.4

1.0

2.5

0.5

0.4

5.2

4.3

4.9

4.3

4.0

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

POLAND: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

38.0
3.1
12.2

38.7
2.8
13.8

38.1
2.6
14.8

38.0
2.5
15.2

37.0
2.4
15.3

0.2
-1.0
1.2

-0.1
-0.9
0.7

0.0
-0.3
0.3

-0.3
-0.3
0.0

144.7
76.3
130.9
20.7
1.5
0.2
1.9
0.5
1.1
0.9
0.4
3.8
1.7
7.9
1.7
10.4
83.8
7.7

210.0
134.3
186.4
31.1
1.2
0.3
2.6
1.2
2.2
2.3
1.6
7.2
2.2
9.1
4.1
14.7
121.6
8.5

298.1
181.2
258.6
51.2
1.5
0.4
3.7
1.7
2.9
3.7
2.2
9.5
1.8
16.8
10.8
15.8
167.2
11.3

406.1
249.4
359.4
69.3
1.5
0.4
5.0
2.6
3.9
4.8
2.9
13.1
2.0
24.4
14.2
22.6
239.9
13.6

515.8
322.6
456.5
79.4
1.5
0.4
6.5
3.7
4.5
5.5
3.4
15.4
1.8
27.9
15.9
27.8
318.9
16.0

3.8
5.8
3.6
4.1
-2.1
4.5
3.0
9.1
6.7
10.2
14.7
6.6
2.4
1.5
9.0
3.5
3.8
0.9

3.6
3.0
3.3
5.1
2.5
5.5
3.7
3.5
2.9
5.0
3.1
2.8
-2.2
6.3
10.3
0.7
3.2
2.9

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.1
0.0
-0.5
3.2
4.2
2.9
2.5
2.8
3.3
1.1
3.8
2.7
3.6
3.7
1.9

2.4
2.6
2.4
1.4
-0.3
-0.8
2.6
3.5
1.6
1.3
1.6
1.6
-0.8
1.3
1.1
2.1
2.9
1.6

15.8
1.1
0.1
1.5
0.4
0.9
0.7
0.3
2.9
1.3
6.0
1.3
7.9
64.0
5.9

16.7
0.6
0.1
1.4
0.7
1.2
1.2
0.9
3.9
1.2
4.9
2.2
7.9
65.2
4.5

19.8
0.6
0.2
1.4
0.7
1.1
1.4
0.9
3.7
0.7
6.5
4.2
6.1
64.6
4.4

19.3
0.4
0.1
1.4
0.7
1.1
1.3
0.8
3.6
0.5
6.8
4.0
6.3
66.8
3.8

17.4
0.3
0.1
1.4
0.8
1.0
1.2
0.8
3.4
0.4
6.1
3.5
6.1
69.9
3.5

8.3

10.6

13.2

14.0

14.4

2.5

2.2

0.6

0.3

6.3

5.7

5.1

3.9

3.2

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

PORTUGAL: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

10.0
3.0
3.3

10.2
2.8
3.7

10.7
2.6
4.1

11.1
2.5
4.5

11.3
2.3
4.9

0.2
-0.9
1.1

0.5
-0.6
1.1

0.4
-0.6
1.0

0.2
-0.5
0.7

102.0
60.4
91.2
18.0
0.5
0.1
1.2
0.5
0.9
1.7
0.9
4.1
4.9
2.2
2.4
7.7
60.4
3.3

142.8
90.1
121.9
19.5
0.4
0.2
1.1
0.4
1.7
1.8
0.9
2.9
4.0
4.4
2.9
10.1
85.5
3.7

147.9
94.1
128.5
17.6
0.4
0.1
1.0
0.3
1.4
1.5
0.8
3.0
3.0
4.4
2.9
7.4
96.6
3.4

179.6
116.0
158.7
19.9
0.4
0.1
1.2
0.4
1.5
1.7
1.0
3.4
2.8
5.3
3.5
9.3
122.2
3.6

221.5
140.0
199.1
24.1
0.4
0.2
1.6
0.7
1.7
2.2
1.4
4.2
2.8
6.7
4.4
11.2
155.8
4.1

3.4
4.1
2.9
0.8
-1.8
4.6
-1.0
-3.4
6.6
0.9
0.9
-3.5
-2.0
7.3
2.1
2.7
3.5
1.2

0.4
0.4
0.5
-1.0
-0.9
-2.5
-1.0
-2.1
-2.1
-2.0
-1.8
0.3
-2.9
-0.2
-0.1
-3.1
1.2
-1.1

2.0
2.1
2.1
1.2
0.8
1.0
2.1
3.8
0.5
1.5
2.5
1.3
-0.6
1.9
1.7
2.4
2.4
0.8

2.1
1.9
2.3
1.9
1.1
1.3
2.7
4.1
1.3
2.3
3.1
2.1
-0.1
2.3
2.5
1.9
2.5
1.2

19.7
0.5
0.1
1.3
0.6
1.0
1.8
0.9
4.5
5.3
2.4
2.6
8.5
66.2
3.6

16.0
0.3
0.1
0.9
0.3
1.4
1.5
0.8
2.4
3.3
3.6
2.4
8.3
70.2
3.1

13.7
0.3
0.1
0.8
0.2
1.1
1.2
0.6
2.3
2.3
3.4
2.3
5.7
75.2
2.6

12.6
0.3
0.1
0.8
0.3
0.9
1.1
0.6
2.1
1.8
3.3
2.2
5.9
77.0
2.3

12.1
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.3
0.8
1.1
0.7
2.1
1.4
3.3
2.2
5.6
78.3
2.1

1.8

3.0

3.5

3.6

3.8

5.2

1.5

0.3

0.5

2.0

2.5

2.7

2.3

1.9

Source: GEM-E3

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

61

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
ROMANIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)

23.2
3.3
7.1

22.5
2.9
7.9

21.3
2.7
7.9

20.8
2.6
8.0

20.0
2.5
7.9

-0.3
-1.3
1.0

-0.5
-0.6
0.1

-0.2
-0.3
0.1

-0.4
-0.3
-0.1

Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)


Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture

71.6
37.0
60.4
16.7
1.1
0.0
1.0
0.3
1.2
0.4
0.1
3.0
1.5
6.7
1.9
3.2
29.2
8.1

60.4
34.6
53.7
12.1
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.4
0.3
3.4
1.4
3.3
1.7
3.3
29.4
5.4

93.8
66.4
87.7
17.0
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.3
0.8
0.8
0.6
5.7
1.2
4.7
2.5
9.2
51.0
6.8

135.0
92.5
131.2
25.0
0.4
0.2
1.0
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.9
8.7
1.2
7.7
3.7
13.7
78.6
9.0

166.1
109.2
169.1
31.8
0.4
0.2
1.3
0.8
1.2
1.5
1.2
10.9
1.3
10.3
4.8
14.8
106.3
10.3

-1.7
-0.7
-1.2
-3.2
-8.7
19.0
-4.3
-4.4
-6.6
0.1
8.6
1.3
-0.2
-6.7
-1.2
0.3
0.1
-4.0

4.5
6.7
5.0
3.5
-2.5
1.4
1.2
4.2
3.1
6.6
9.0
5.4
-2.0
3.6
3.9
10.9
5.7
2.3

3.7
3.4
4.1
3.9
1.9
1.3
3.0
5.7
2.2
3.4
3.9
4.2
0.5
5.0
3.9
4.0
4.4
2.9

2.1
1.7
2.6
2.4
0.2
-0.4
2.9
5.0
1.4
2.6
3.0
2.2
0.3
3.0
2.8
0.8
3.1
1.4

27.7
1.8
0.0
1.6
0.5
2.0
0.7
0.2
4.9
2.4
11.1
3.2
5.3
48.3
13.5

22.5
0.8
0.2
1.2
0.4
1.1
0.8
0.5
6.3
2.7
6.2
3.2
6.1
54.7
10.0

19.3
0.4
0.2
0.8
0.3
0.9
0.9
0.7
6.5
1.3
5.4
2.8
10.5
58.1
7.7

19.0
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.8
0.9
0.7
6.6
0.9
5.9
2.8
10.4
59.9
6.8

18.8
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.5
0.7
0.9
0.7
6.4
0.8
6.1
2.9
8.8
62.9
6.1

3.2

3.6

3.8

5.0

5.9

1.3

0.6

2.7

1.6

5.2

6.7

4.3

3.8

3.5

Energy sector

SLOVAKIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

5.3
2.5
2.1

5.4
2.2
2.5

5.4
2.0
2.6

5.4
2.0
2.7

5.3
2.0
2.7

0.2
-1.3
1.6

0.0
-0.6
0.6

0.0
-0.2
0.2

-0.2
-0.2
0.0

26.2
17.2
27.7
4.0
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
0.9
0.3
0.9
0.4
1.7
13.9
1.7

30.3
17.5
27.2
4.6
0.6
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.7
0.3
1.4
0.5
2.0
16.9
0.9

48.2
24.4
41.0
9.8
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.8
0.4
4.8
1.7
2.8
24.5
1.5

73.3
36.1
64.9
15.8
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.9
0.4
1.2
0.4
8.4
2.8
4.5
40.1
2.1

91.9
45.1
81.4
17.9
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.4
0.9
1.1
0.5
1.3
0.4
9.5
3.2
5.1
54.0
2.1

1.5
0.1
-0.1
1.4
5.7
21.0
-3.2
0.1
1.3
1.6
3.5
-3.5
0.6
4.2
0.6
1.7
2.0
-6.1

4.8
3.4
4.2
7.9
-9.0
8.9
1.3
2.1
3.9
4.9
7.1
2.2
1.6
13.3
14.4
3.3
3.8
5.2

4.3
4.0
4.7
4.8
1.7
2.1
4.8
6.3
4.2
4.6
5.2
3.8
0.0
5.8
4.8
5.0
5.1
3.1

2.3
2.3
2.3
1.3
0.2
0.6
2.6
3.9
1.5
1.9
2.4
1.0
-0.1
1.2
1.4
1.3
3.0
0.4

14.5
1.2
0.1
1.6
0.4
1.0
1.1
0.3
3.4
1.2
3.3
1.5
6.1
50.2
6.2

16.8
2.0
0.6
1.2
0.4
1.2
1.3
0.4
2.4
1.3
5.1
1.7
7.3
62.0
3.4

23.9
0.5
1.0
0.9
0.3
1.2
1.4
0.6
2.0
1.0
11.8
4.2
6.7
59.7
3.7

24.3
0.4
0.7
0.9
0.4
1.1
1.4
0.6
1.8
0.6
13.0
4.3
6.9
61.8
3.2

22.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.3
0.6
1.6
0.5
11.7
3.9
6.3
66.4
2.6

6.4

2.9

2.4

2.5

2.3

-7.7

-1.6

0.2

-1.0

23.0

10.5

5.9

3.8

2.8

SLOVENIA: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

2.0
3.3
0.6

2.0
2.9
0.7

2.0
2.7
0.7

2.1
2.6
0.8

2.0
2.6
0.8

0.0
-1.4
1.4

0.2
-0.5
0.7

0.1
-0.4
0.5

-0.2
-0.3
0.2

20.0
10.5
17.3
4.5
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.7
0.6
1.5
0.6
1.4
9.8
0.7

24.0
13.6
20.8
4.8
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.6
0.5
1.6
0.7
1.5
13.1
0.7

32.7
17.2
28.3
6.9
0.2
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.3
2.9
1.1
1.9
18.0
0.7

44.0
23.0
38.3
9.1
0.3
0.2
1.3
0.8
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.7
0.4
3.8
1.4
2.8
24.6
0.8

50.7
27.3
44.2
9.6
0.3
0.2
1.4
0.9
0.4
0.7
0.4
0.8
0.3
4.0
1.5
3.5
29.1
0.9

1.9
2.7
1.8
0.6
1.0
-4.2
14.6
18.3
-1.0
-1.3
1.1
-2.3
-2.2
0.6
1.5
0.9
3.0
-0.4

3.1
2.3
3.1
3.7
5.4
3.7
4.7
6.1
2.1
3.5
5.6
-0.6
-2.8
5.7
4.0
2.5
3.2
0.0

3.0
3.0
3.1
2.8
3.0
3.4
3.2
3.5
2.7
3.2
3.7
3.1
0.9
2.9
2.4
4.1
3.2
2.1

1.4
1.7
1.4
0.6
0.6
1.0
0.8
1.2
0.4
1.0
1.4
1.1
-1.2
0.6
0.5
2.1
1.7
0.6

26.1
0.7
0.9
0.9
0.3
1.5
2.2
0.8
4.0
3.3
8.9
3.7
7.9
56.6
4.1

23.0
0.7
0.5
2.8
1.5
1.1
1.6
0.7
2.7
2.2
7.9
3.5
7.2
63.1
3.2

24.3
0.8
0.5
3.2
2.0
1.0
1.7
0.9
1.9
1.2
10.1
3.8
6.7
63.6
2.4

23.6
0.8
0.5
3.3
2.1
1.0
1.7
1.0
1.9
1.0
9.9
3.6
7.4
64.2
2.2

21.8
0.8
0.5
3.1
2.1
0.9
1.6
1.0
1.8
0.8
9.1
3.3
7.9
66.0
2.0

0.9

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

-2.5

1.8

1.2

0.1

5.4

3.5

3.1

2.6

2.2

Source: GEM-E3

62

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

BASELINE SCENARIO
SPAIN: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

38.8
3.2
12.2

40.0
2.9
14.0

46.7
2.7
17.3

51.1
2.5
20.2

52.7
2.4
21.9

0.3
-1.0
1.3

1.5
-0.6
2.1

0.9
-0.6
1.6

0.3
-0.5
0.8

574.9
332.4
542.3
95.7
6.2
1.5
8.3
3.4
7.2
6.6
4.3
13.3
6.3
33.6
12.8
56.4
353.0
25.1

773.9
441.8
698.9
120.2
5.3
2.6
11.2
4.5
9.0
10.4
6.2
16.9
8.1
41.2
15.5
70.6
460.6
29.6

949.4
538.5
844.5
129.9
5.3
2.5
13.5
6.8
10.1
12.3
8.6
18.6
5.7
44.0
17.8
93.3
576.8
23.4

1285.2
701.4
1156.2
181.6
6.9
3.3
20.1
10.7
13.5
17.0
12.3
25.7
6.2
64.3
24.5
129.8
792.8
25.9

1635.8
841.0
1471.5
240.0
8.7
4.2
27.7
15.5
17.3
22.6
16.8
34.5
6.3
85.9
32.8
164.2
1004.7
31.5

3.0
2.9
2.6
2.3
-1.4
5.6
3.1
2.7
2.2
4.7
3.8
2.4
2.6
2.1
1.9
2.3
2.7
1.6

2.1
2.0
1.9
0.8
0.0
-0.5
1.9
4.3
1.2
1.7
3.3
1.0
-3.5
0.7
1.4
2.8
2.3
-2.3

3.1
2.7
3.2
3.4
2.6
2.8
4.0
4.6
2.9
3.3
3.6
3.3
0.9
3.9
3.2
3.4
3.2
1.0

2.4
1.8
2.4
2.8
2.3
2.4
3.3
3.8
2.5
2.9
3.2
3.0
0.1
2.9
3.0
2.4
2.4
2.0

17.7
1.1
0.3
1.5
0.6
1.3
1.2
0.8
2.5
1.2
6.2
2.4
10.4
65.1
4.6

17.2
0.8
0.4
1.6
0.6
1.3
1.5
0.9
2.4
1.2
5.9
2.2
10.1
65.9
4.2

15.4
0.6
0.3
1.6
0.8
1.2
1.5
1.0
2.2
0.7
5.2
2.1
11.0
68.3
2.8

15.7
0.6
0.3
1.7
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.1
2.2
0.5
5.6
2.1
11.2
68.6
2.2

16.3
0.6
0.3
1.9
1.1
1.2
1.5
1.1
2.3
0.4
5.8
2.2
11.2
68.3
2.1

12.1

17.8

21.2

26.1

31.1

3.9

1.7

2.1

1.8

2.2

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.1

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990

SWEDEN: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

Annual % Change
Main Demographic Assumptions
Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

8.5
2.2
3.8

8.9
2.1
4.1

9.3
2.1
4.5

9.9
2.0
4.9

10.3
2.0
5.2

0.4
-0.4
0.8

0.5
-0.4
0.8

0.6
-0.2
0.8

0.4
-0.2
0.6

210.0
109.1
186.4
22.9
1.7
0.6
1.9
0.7
0.9
5.2
2.6
2.9
0.8
6.3
2.5
12.5
138.0
2.8

259.7
129.3
226.9
40.8
2.3
0.8
4.7
2.5
0.9
6.2
2.3
3.7
0.6
16.1
5.3
10.6
165.2
2.6

304.3
136.7
261.6
51.9
2.3
0.9
6.8
4.1
1.0
5.6
2.2
3.8
0.4
24.9
6.2
11.1
188.6
2.6

380.3
173.9
330.1
66.5
3.0
1.2
8.4
5.6
1.0
6.3
2.6
4.3
0.4
34.8
7.0
14.1
238.9
2.7

456.7
204.4
396.5
79.6
3.2
1.3
10.3
7.3
1.2
7.6
3.3
5.1
0.4
42.3
8.2
16.5
288.8
3.0

2.2
1.7
2.0
6.0
3.6
2.8
9.3
14.0
0.3
1.8
-1.2
2.4
-2.8
9.8
7.8
-1.6
1.8
-0.7

1.6
0.6
1.4
2.4
-0.3
1.8
3.6
5.2
0.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.3
-3.6
4.4
1.5
0.4
1.3
0.1

2.3
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.7
2.4
2.2
3.0
0.6
1.2
1.8
1.3
-0.6
3.4
1.2
2.5
2.4
0.5

1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
0.9
0.6
2.0
2.8
1.3
1.9
2.4
1.7
-0.6
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.9
1.0

12.3
0.9
0.3
1.0
0.4
0.5
2.8
1.4
1.6
0.4
3.4
1.3
6.7
74.1
1.5

18.0
1.0
0.3
2.1
1.1
0.4
2.7
1.0
1.6
0.3
7.1
2.4
4.7
72.8
1.1

19.9
0.9
0.4
2.6
1.6
0.4
2.2
0.8
1.5
0.2
9.5
2.4
4.2
72.1
1.0

20.2
0.9
0.4
2.6
1.7
0.3
1.9
0.8
1.3
0.1
10.6
2.1
4.3
72.4
0.8

20.1
0.8
0.3
2.6
1.8
0.3
1.9
0.8
1.3
0.1
10.7
2.1
4.2
72.9
0.8

10.2

7.7

7.3

7.9

8.4

-2.8

-0.5

0.7

0.7

5.5

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.1

UNITED KINGDOM: Key Demographic and Economic Assumptions


1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30 1990


Annual % Change

Main Demographic Assumptions


Population (Million)
Average household size (persons)
Number of households (Million)
Gross Domestic product (in 000 M05)
Households expenditure (in 000 M05)
Gross Value Added (in 000 M05)
Industry
iron and steel
non ferrous metals
chemicals
pharmaceuticals and cosmetics
non metallic minerals
paper, pulp, printing
printing and publishing
food, drink, tobacco
textiles and leather
engineering
other industries
Construction
Services
Agriculture
Energy sector

2000

2010

2020

2030

% Structure of total value added

57.2
2.6
22.3

58.8
2.4
24.5

62.0
2.3
27.0

65.7
2.2
29.9

69.2
2.1
32.5

0.3
-0.7
0.9

0.5
-0.4
1.0

0.6
-0.4
1.0

0.5
-0.3
0.8

1263.3
777.3
1127.0
214.7
6.5
5.0
16.5
6.9
9.0
30.2
20.7
31.2
12.1
73.5
30.6
88.7
754.9
15.1

1623.9
1028.4
1450.0
233.3
5.3
3.6
23.4
9.4
8.3
32.3
24.1
32.9
8.7
86.8
32.0
86.1
1021.5
15.7

1882.4
1154.0
1660.5
202.0
4.6
2.5
25.2
12.7
7.9
27.0
20.9
32.6
4.4
71.6
26.3
89.0
1290.7
13.9

2373.0
1505.6
2109.8
234.1
4.9
2.7
31.5
15.5
9.4
31.3
24.6
36.7
3.9
83.9
29.9
120.2
1676.3
14.9

2903.1
1813.9
2581.1
274.3
5.4
3.0
37.7
18.0
11.0
35.8
28.5
43.3
3.5
99.0
35.7
146.0
2078.2
16.3

2.5
2.8
2.6
0.8
-2.2
-3.3
3.6
3.1
-0.9
0.7
1.5
0.5
-3.2
1.7
0.4
-0.3
3.1
0.4

1.5
1.2
1.4
-1.4
-1.4
-3.8
0.8
3.0
-0.4
-1.8
-1.4
-0.1
-6.7
-1.9
-1.9
0.3
2.4
-1.2

2.3
2.7
2.4
1.5
0.7
0.8
2.3
2.0
1.7
1.5
1.6
1.2
-1.0
1.6
1.3
3.1
2.6
0.7

2.0
1.9
2.0
1.6
1.1
1.2
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.5
1.7
-1.2
1.7
1.8
2.0
2.2
0.9

19.0
0.6
0.4
1.5
0.6
0.8
2.7
1.8
2.8
1.1
6.5
2.7
7.9
67.0
1.3

16.1
0.4
0.2
1.6
0.6
0.6
2.2
1.7
2.3
0.6
6.0
2.2
5.9
70.5
1.1

12.2
0.3
0.1
1.5
0.8
0.5
1.6
1.3
2.0
0.3
4.3
1.6
5.4
77.7
0.8

11.1
0.2
0.1
1.5
0.7
0.4
1.5
1.2
1.7
0.2
4.0
1.4
5.7
79.5
0.7

10.6
0.2
0.1
1.5
0.7
0.4
1.4
1.1
1.7
0.1
3.8
1.4
5.7
80.5
0.6

53.6

93.4

64.9

64.3

66.3

5.7

-3.6

-0.1

0.3

4.8

6.4

3.9

3.0

2.6

Source: GEM-E3

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

63

APPENDIX 1

64

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 1

APPENDIX 2A: SUMMARY ENERGY


BALANCES AND INDICATORS
(BASELINE 2009 SCENARIO)

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

65

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

EU27: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

936047
366477
129551
162447
202589
74984
25101
46473
67
153
3190

950181
277810
171052
188965
223028
89326
28054
57201
350
274
3447

941860
213423
173006
207559
243761
104111
30374
67982
1913
421
3421

900326
196277
134290
188677
257360
123722
26395
85129
6061
807
5331

821985
167556
102864
164144
238990
148430
27808
97599
13862
3259
5903

773570
155202
74348
129067
241310
173644
28531
109508
23145
6238
6222

741237
142314
49906
111437
237685
199895
29145
120092
34332
9054
7271

740892
135565
40875
91972
247463
225016
30041
128067
44744
11542
10622

761416
130849
37276
75504
268042
249745
30533
132313
55375
13804
17719

0.1
-5.3
2.9
2.5
1.9
3.3
1.9
3.9
39.8
10.7
0.7

-1.4
-2.4
-5.1
-2.3
-0.2
3.6
-0.9
3.7
21.9
22.7
5.6

-1.0
-1.6
-7.0
-3.8
-0.1
3.0
0.5
2.1
9.5
10.8
2.1

0.3
-0.8
-2.9
-3.8
1.2
2.3
0.5
1.0
4.9
4.3
9.3

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

756079
81846
535645
508460
27185
135121
3323

738600
79338
512185
494000
18185
145288
1508

826299
98645
533039
513725
19314
192531
1686

986048
126639
599851
581995
17856
257366
971

992533
117225
578981
577908
1073
292834
99

1083628
133831
616263
617339
-1076
328261
-613

1133555
144964
629909
635745
-5836
351250
-1684

1130508
139939
619167
628717
-9550
361451
-1781

1100891
129086
596780
611939
-15159
363741
-1867

0.9
1.9
0.0
0.1
-3.4
3.6
-6.6

1.8
1.7
0.8
1.2
-25.1
4.3
-24.7

1.3
2.1
0.8
1.0

-0.3
-1.2
-0.5
-0.4

1.8

0.4

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1660159
452940
631058
294905
202589
3323
75343

1662517
364248
650858
333268
223028
1508
89606

1723099
321007
658727
393417
243761
1686
104501

1825989
319922
676859
445998
257360
971
124880

1764466
284781
631793
456978
238990
99
151825

1805307
289033
638720
457327
241310
-613
179530

1822157
287278
627180
462688
237685
-1684
209011

1817670
275504
606313
453423
247463
-1781
236749

1807226
259935
578976
439245
268042
-1867
262896

0.4
-3.4
0.4
2.9
1.9
-6.6
3.3

0.2
-1.2
-0.4
1.5
-0.2
-24.7
3.8

0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1

-0.1
-1.0
-0.8
-0.5
1.2

3.2

2.3

27.3
38.0
17.8
12.2
4.5

21.9
39.1
20.0
13.4
5.4

18.6
38.2
22.8
14.1
6.1

17.5
37.1
24.4
14.1
6.8

16.1
35.8
25.9
13.5
8.6

16.0
35.4
25.3
13.4
9.9

15.8
34.4
25.4
13.0
11.5

15.2
33.4
24.9
13.6
13.0

14.4
32.0
24.3
14.8
14.5

2562823
358053

2712209
383048

2991720
408040

3274121
429777

3311797
397688

3553832
423813

3795425
459082

4012917
508456

4191941
559012

1.6
1.3

1.0
-0.3

1.4
1.4

1.0
2.0

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

383492
263837
54404
56754
5724
2774
0

362334
230040
51463
67806
10033
2992
0

382613
223012
39294
102408
14960
2939
0

424208
229245
29780
134637
25901
4645
0

412202
215200
14439
143087
34378
5098
0

424846
220489
15668
142250
41212
5227
0

438317
217961
15338
151161
47833
6024
0

436371
207758
14881
149621
54980
9131
0

421050
195041
11627
137481
60675
16226
0

0.0
-1.7
-3.2
6.1
10.1
0.6

0.7
-0.4
-9.5
3.4
8.7
5.7

0.6
0.1
0.6
0.6
3.4
1.7

-0.4
-1.1
-2.7
-0.9
2.4
10.4

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

839073
679426
2
32960
126685

814654
705954
202
23240
85258

827098
735244
610
19323
71921

842975
758152
3129
16212
65482

792479
715356
11802
17469
47853

806731
727057
17450
16126
46097

803472
719440
22015
16308
45710

785038
701980
24357
15050
43651

761688
680140
25886
14118
41543

-0.1
0.8
79.6
-5.2
-5.5

-0.4
-0.3
34.5
-1.0
-4.0

0.1
0.1
6.4
-0.7
-0.5

-0.5
-0.6
1.6
-1.4
-1.0
-0.1

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Energy Branch Consumption

82379

88696

88176

96033

92143

90907

90850

90911

90395

0.7

0.4

-0.1

Non-Energy Uses

97931

110541

112495

117477

111394

114997

117035

117712

118706

1.4

-0.1

0.5

0.1

1068710

1069989

1112989

1173676

1168588

1210934

1229094

1226560

1216372

0.4

0.5

0.5

-0.1

365650
234722
130928
264307
158484
280269

328513
214526
113987
280418
160442
300617

326949
213112
113837
286784
159866
339389

326308
210991
115317
308104
176859
362405

312835
193474
119361
309162
176247
370345

322764
196112
126652
317167
182813
388190

332858
199186
133672
316393
184951
394892

338776
198981
139796
312180
185570
390035

344251
199197
145053
308327
184652
379143

-1.1
-1.0
-1.4
0.8
0.1
1.9

-0.4
-1.0
0.5
0.8
1.0
0.9

0.6
0.3
1.1
0.2
0.5
0.6

0.3
0.0
0.8
-0.3
0.0
-0.4

125031
444429
227902
184145
48610
38592
0

84977
456959
245996
193367
44616
44073
0

61454
478880
265552
216403
40061
50639
0

54486
495857
283524
237537
44441
57830
0

43786
475706
284203
241167
59596
64103
27

43604
482351
285314
260056
66270
73290
48

44549
474707
279405
276708
71982
81679
64

43790
459585
269861
291201
75208
86850
65

41747
440902
264868
302437
77637
88719
64

-6.9
0.7
1.5
1.6
-1.9
2.8

-3.3
-0.1
0.7
1.1
4.1
2.4

0.2
0.0
-0.2
1.4
1.9
2.5
9.2

-0.6
-0.7
-0.5
0.9
0.8
0.8
-0.1

87370

104626

131767

159658

187413

212017

231888

4.2

3.6

2.2

5063.6

4823.4
2166.5
3728.4
1292.7
158.2
492.4
481.0
253.4
1050.6
279.6
815.4

4833.1
2176.8
3759.1
1311.8
148.5
488.0
476.7
246.8
1087.2
291.1
782.9

4764.0
2168.5
3692.0
1285.1
141.5
488.2
450.9
233.5
1092.8
306.0
766.1

4563.1
2038.9
3486.2
1159.9
132.7
475.9
425.6
221.8
1070.4
314.6
762.2

4225.4
1780.5
3151.8
911.3
123.4
468.0
406.1
212.2
1030.8
318.2
755.4

-0.9

-0.5

3810.6
1320.8
170.2
623.0
466.2
242.0
988.5
299.3
953.7

5129.6
2438.2
3946.6
1381.1
181.6
581.9
486.7
262.2
1053.1
304.5
878.5

-0.6
-1.2
1.1
-2.2
-0.7
-2.1
2.0
-1.0
-2.0

-0.2
-0.2
-0.7
-2.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
-0.7
-1.6

-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-1.1
-0.1
-0.6
-0.8
0.4
0.9
-0.6

-1.2
-2.0
-1.6
-3.4
-1.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.0
-0.6
0.4
-0.1

91.5

92.7

87.2

87.4

86.1

82.5

76.4

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

5532.3
4030.6
1484.3
152.2
781.4
499.4
300.5
812.7
329.5
1172.1
100.0

3800.1
1321.2
171.0
678.1
481.6
275.3
872.9
306.8

Source: PRIMES

66

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)

EU27: Baseline 2009

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

470.388
8142.7
203.9
2.43
44.6

477.010
8748.4
190.0
2.29
43.5

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

481.072
10107.2
170.5
2.21
46.8

489.211
11063.1
165.1
2.16
52.5

499.389
11385.6
155.0
2.11
54.7

507.727
12750.3
141.6
2.08
58.3

513.838
14164.0
128.6
2.03
60.5

517.811
15503.7
117.2
1.92
60.4

519.942
16824.7
107.4
1.74
59.1

994.8
9.8

1160.9
10.5

1214.0
10.7

1409.7
11.1

1687.2
11.9

1871.2
12.1

1934.4
11.5

0.2
2.2
-1.8
-0.9

0.4
1.2
-0.9
-0.5

0.3
2.2
-1.8
-0.4

0.1
1.7
-1.8
-1.5

2.0

3.3

1.4

130.3
114.4
126.5
39.6
47.1

115.2
113.2
117.0
39.5
46.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
40.3
46.3

95.1
97.5
99.4
39.5
46.5

90.4
97.2
95.3
38.0
46.1

84.5
88.6
87.5
35.4
45.8

79.0
80.0
79.4
33.6
44.3

73.9
72.9
72.4
31.1
42.6

69.8
66.8
66.1
28.4
40.3

-2.6
-1.3
-2.3
0.2
-0.2

-1.0
-0.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.1

-1.3
-1.9
-1.8
-1.2
-0.4

-1.2
-1.8
-1.8
-1.7
-0.9

0.46
2.24
2.14
1.89
1.90
2.90

0.40
2.16
2.06
1.72
1.72
2.90

0.37
2.08
1.91
1.63
1.51
2.91

0.35
2.03
1.78
1.58
1.48
2.91

0.31
1.95
1.57
1.56
1.44
2.84

0.29
1.90
1.51
1.50
1.35
2.80

0.27
1.84
1.47
1.43
1.26
2.77

0.23
1.79
1.40
1.36
1.20
2.74

0.17
1.74
1.36
1.32
1.15
2.72

-2.1
-0.7
-1.1
-1.5
-2.2
0.0

-1.9
-0.7
-1.9
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3

-1.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.9
-1.3
-0.2

-4.2
-0.6
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-0.2

7.6
0.5

8.6
1.4

10.9
4.2

12.8
5.9

14.8
7.4

16.7
8.4

18.4
9.3

2991720
944823
944939
169709
507154
44772
353183
22246
116
4778

3274121
997519
980774
133406
693902
84256
306916
70473
1447
5427

3311797
926827
890887
67162
791522
127487
323347
161188
16933
6445

3553832
937076
935613
72349
804857
163885
331760
269127
31941
7225

3795425
928666
946907
69690
864690
191352
338900
399210
45802
10209

4012917
988723
935050
63637
862066
217775
349313
520277
59649
16427

4191941
1083694
931460
49457
783674
241293
355032
643895
75070
28365

1.0
-0.2
-0.6
-8.9
4.6
11.0
-0.9
21.9
64.6
3.0

1.4
0.0
0.6
0.4
0.9
4.1
0.5
9.5
10.5
4.7

1.0
1.6
-0.2
-3.4
-1.0
2.3
0.5
4.9
5.1
10.8

654125
133923
112878
99714
12793
371
0
407324
77070
0
194165
129444
71058
12051
0
605

715734
134409
147262
104505
40584
2172
1
434063
84892
0
186620
167173
62082
17502
0
686

816095
127038
206951
107334
84096
15272
249
482106
100061
0
183740
217761
55837
24041
0
727

901048
126752
265009
110498
126192
27744
575
509286
110539
0
182938
249765
45963
29882
0
738

944473
123566
326186
113356
172303
38885
1642
494720
114967
5394
165993
250328
41813
35767
0
820

1011270
122895
384504
114943
216847
49721
2993
503870
122882
13967
154522
266936
38933
42262
0
1216

1098178
134278
443051
116323
260783
61073
4873
520849
125821
35253
165236
269382
35750
48322
0
2158

2.2
-0.5
6.2
0.7
20.7
45.0
1.7
2.6

1.5
-0.3
4.7
0.5
7.4
9.8
20.8
0.3
1.4

-0.6
5.3
-2.4
7.1

-1.0
1.4
-2.9
4.1

1.5
0.8
3.1
0.3
4.2
4.6
11.5
0.5
0.9
20.6
0.0
0.7
-1.6
3.1

1.9

1.2

10.2

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

49.1

49.1

44.1

42.9

43.7

42.9

41.0

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

37.6
11.4
0.0
45.8
31.6
14.2

38.5
11.7
0.0
44.8
30.5
14.3

39.3
15.1
0.0
47.2
28.0
19.2

40.1
17.4
0.0
49.0
26.4
22.6

40.8
17.6
1.4
50.4
24.5
26.0

41.2
17.9
3.7
53.6
24.6
29.0

41.4
17.5
8.7
57.9
25.9
32.1

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4880.7
544.0
3501.1
472.5
317.3
45.8

5307.7
504.0
3986.3
421.7
351.3
44.4

5892.2
517.6
4428.1
447.9
456.9
41.7

6240.3
526.0
4686.5
461.0
527.3
39.5

6511.3
545.0
4866.1
482.5
576.9
40.8

7136.1
574.9
5300.8
522.5
695.6
42.4

7598.9
602.2
5576.3
563.9
812.7
43.8

8018.2
624.6
5809.6
603.9
935.0
45.1

8424.4
643.0
6041.2
641.7
1052.1
46.3

1.9
-0.5
2.4
-0.5
3.7
-0.9

1.0
0.5
0.9
0.7
2.4
-0.2

1.6
1.0
1.4
1.6
3.5
0.7

1.0
0.7
0.8
1.3
2.6
0.6

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

1848.4
1060.4
526.3
261.6

1942.4
1288.7
386.1
267.6

2195.7
1518.7
403.7
273.3

2494.6
1800.3
414.1
280.2

2662.6
1940.3
440.5
281.9

2965.0
2178.6
487.9
298.6

3149.5
2308.6
525.2
315.7

3311.4
2426.1
554.6
330.7

3460.1
2538.2
579.0
342.9

1.7
3.7
-2.6
0.4

1.9
2.5
0.9
0.3

1.7
1.8
1.8
1.1

0.9
1.0
1.0
0.8

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

280269
5197
154395
74969
9560
29038
7110

300617
4732
166321
79037
9452
34112
6963

339389
4914
182974
90951
9600
45395
5555

362405
5039
187736
105104
9436
49703
5386

370345
5179
186470
111593
9653
51984
5466

388190
5318
185222
123875
10185
57901
5688

394892
5306
182702
127520
10056
63353
5954

390035
5215
174691
129191
9698
65037
6203

379143
5086
164762
128901
8523
65485
6385

1.9
-0.6
1.7
2.0
0.0
4.6
-2.4

0.9
0.5
0.2
2.1
0.1
1.4
-0.2

0.6
0.2
-0.2
1.3
0.4
2.0
0.9

-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
0.1
-1.6
0.3
0.7

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

67

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Austria: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

8207
644
1295
1097
0
5172
2709
2445
0
15
4

8711
305
1108
1261
0
6037
3187
2809
0
36
5

9820
293
1116
1533
0
6879
3598
3189
6
64
23

9653
0
986
1403
0
7263
3085
3937
114
92
35

10295
0
957
1480
0
7858
3238
4225
218
164
13

10438
0
850
1270
0
8318
3425
4328
302
250
13

10312
0
620
740
0
8952
3572
4733
328
303
16

10297
0
280
670
0
9347
3676
4928
381
345
17

10711
0
230
600
0
9881
3873
5040
568
382
19

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

17306
3112
9741
8043
1699
4443
-40

18028
2550
10264
8309
1955
5404
-212

19106
3019
11001
7975
3026
5253
-118

24658
3959
13322
8225
5098
7203
229

23656
3506
12747
8215
4532
7145
279

24067
3250
12906
8355
4551
7807
38

24440
3190
12572
8394
4177
8560
-13

24463
3117
12371
8547
3824
8736
-20

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

25258
4042
10863
5184
0
-40
5208

27054
3344
11485
6374
0
-212
6063

29046
3592
12223
6519
0
-118
6829

34105
4039
14455
8178
0
229
7204

33950
3506
13704
8625
0
279
7837

34504
3250
13756
9077
0
38
8383

34752
3190
13192
9300
0
-13
9084

16.0
43.0
20.5
0.0
20.6

12.4
42.5
23.6
0.0
22.4

12.4
42.1
22.4
0.0
23.5

11.8
42.4
24.0
0.0
21.1

10.3
40.4
25.4
0.0
23.1

9.4
39.9
26.3
0.0
24.3

49287
5257

55170
5042

59854
5269

62963
7556

63544
7675

4007
1510
488
1776
233
0
0

4309
1055
489
2321
444
0
0

3901
1239
279
1961
421
0
0

5473
1510
270
2901
790
2
0

11637
9317
2
347
1971

11680
9445
5
439
1790

11550
9077
9
554
1910

Energy Branch Consumption

1774

1883

Non-Energy Uses

1554

1318

19124

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.8
-7.6
-1.5
3.4

0.5

0.0

0.4

-1.5
-0.4

-4.2
-6.7

-9.4
-2.1

15.7
20.3

1.3
-1.0
2.9
43.8
9.9
-5.8

1.3
1.0
1.1
4.2
6.3
2.2

1.0
0.8
0.6
5.7
2.3
1.9

23757
3209
11707
8344
3362
8539
-4

1.0
-0.3
1.2
-0.1
5.9
1.7

2.2
1.5
1.5
0.3
4.1
3.1

0.3
-0.9
-0.1
0.2
-0.8
1.8

-0.3
0.1
-0.7
-0.1
-2.1
0.0

34760
3117
12651
9406
0
-20
9607

34468
3209
11937
9139
0
-4
10187

1.4
-1.2
1.2
2.3

1.6
-0.2
1.1
2.8

0.2
-0.9
-0.4
0.8

-0.1
0.1
-1.0
-0.2

2.7

1.4

1.5

1.2

9.2
38.0
26.8
0.0
26.1

9.0
36.4
27.1
0.0
27.6

9.3
34.6
26.5
0.0
29.6

71325
8494

76615
9107

79890
9325

82910
10077

2.0
0.0

0.6
3.8

1.9
1.7

0.8
1.0

4976
1379
155
2556
879
7
0

5464
1160
157
2942
1198
7
0

6072
1173
108
3280
1504
7
0

6635
1140
111
3720
1658
7
0

6493
1104
203
3430
1749
8
0

-0.3
-2.0
-5.4
1.0
6.1

2.5
1.1
-5.7
2.7
7.6

2.0
-1.6
-3.6
2.5
5.5
0.0

0.7
-0.6
6.5
0.4
1.5
1.3

12088
9374
42
663
2009

11910
9173
245
769
1723

12001
9206
369
769
1656

11877
9015
511
769
1583

11509
8828
595
564
1522

11223
8574
684
380
1584

-0.1
-0.3
17.5
4.8
-0.3

0.3
0.1
39.6
3.3
-1.0

0.0
-0.2
7.6
0.0
-0.8

-0.6
-0.5
3.0
-6.8
0.0

1924

2375

2218

2161

2112

2037

1995

0.8

1.4

-0.5

-0.6

1576

1591

1527

1581

1612

1629

1648

0.1

-0.3

0.5

0.2

21062

23122

27107

27533

28394

28652

28577

28494

1.9

1.8

0.4

-0.1

6366
4194
2172
5801
2412
4545

6684
4189
2495
6244
2934
5200

7757
5033
2723
5995
3290
6081

8601
5447
3154
6657
3814
8034

8649
5126
3523
6907
3849
8128

8593
4992
3601
7236
4162
8403

8730
5028
3701
7199
4300
8423

8896
5072
3824
7094
4367
8220

9072
5130
3942
6968
4465
7989

2.0
1.8
2.3
0.3
3.2
3.0

1.1
0.2
2.6
1.4
1.6
2.9

0.1
-0.2
0.5
0.4
1.1
0.4

0.4
0.2
0.6
-0.3
0.4
-0.5

1785
7929
2968
3629
612
2201
0

1582
8779
3607
3952
848
2294
0

1399
9465
4265
4417
1025
2552
0

1497
11829
4788
4831
1324
2838
0

1216
11367
5498
4931
1459
3061
1

1229
11575
5459
5285
1837
3008
1

1179
11160
5373
5638
2083
3217
1

1139
10694
5058
5897
2206
3581
2

1082
10204
5087
6109
2238
3773
2

-2.4
1.8
3.7
2.0
5.3
1.5

-1.4
1.8
2.6
1.1
3.6
1.8

-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
1.3
3.6
0.5
8.9

-0.9
-0.9
-0.5
0.8
0.7
1.6
0.2

6012

6593

7023

8058

8674

9066

9558

84.6
61.3
11.5
4.5
15.6
8.5
3.9
17.3
8.1
15.2

97.2
37.0
74.1
15.0
5.0
17.4
9.1
4.4
23.2
9.1
14.0

92.8
32.8
70.8
13.2
4.4
16.7
9.4
4.2
22.8
8.5
13.5

93.0
32.7
70.8
13.3
3.9
16.4
9.7
4.3
23.2
8.8
13.3

92.0
33.6
69.3
14.0
3.5
16.1
8.9
4.0
22.8
9.3
13.4

90.6
34.4
67.6
14.8
3.3
15.5
8.3
3.8
21.9
9.7
13.4

85.9
31.4
62.8
11.6
3.1
15.6
8.0
3.7
20.9
9.9
13.2

104.8

120.5

115.0

115.2

114.0

112.3

106.5

2.9
2.9
2.7

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

80.7
55.7
12.8
4.0
13.1
9.9
3.3
12.7
8.0
17.0
100.0

58.9
12.3
4.4
13.9
9.7
4.0
14.6
7.7

1.6

2.1

1.0

0.5

0.9

1.0
-1.1
1.1
1.8
-1.4
1.6
3.1
0.2
-1.1

1.4
1.4
-0.1
0.7
1.0
0.8
2.8
0.4
-1.1

-0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.6
-2.4
-0.3
-0.5
-0.5
0.0
0.9
-0.1

-0.7
-0.7
-1.0
-1.9
-1.2
-0.4
-1.1
-0.6
-0.9
0.6
-0.1

Source: PRIMES

68

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Austria: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

7.645
174.5
144.8
2.21
68.5

7.943
194.2
139.3
2.18
66.6

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

8.002
225.0
129.1
2.11
65.8

8.207
244.5
139.5
2.17
72.3

8.405
254.5
133.4
2.08
69.7

8.570
281.9
122.4
2.05
69.7

8.723
310.4
112.0
1.99
70.3

8.866
337.7
102.9
1.94
70.4

8.988
363.5
94.8
1.82
68.9

19.2
8.5

24.8
10.1

27.1
10.6

31.9
11.3

37.3
12.0

40.6
12.0

42.1
11.6

0.5
2.6
-1.1
-0.4

0.5
1.2
0.3
-0.1

0.4
2.0
-1.7
-0.4

0.3
1.6
-1.6
-0.9

3.5

3.3

1.2

102.4
118.1
96.4
37.1
44.2

102.2
114.6
103.2
36.2
46.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
37.9
45.4

100.8
102.5
106.0
45.8
59.0

96.5
103.3
102.7
44.3
57.1

86.2
97.8
99.6
40.7
56.4

79.8
88.8
93.1
38.0
53.7

74.5
81.1
86.7
34.7
51.0

70.5
74.5
82.3
32.2
48.0

-0.2
-1.7
0.4
0.2
0.3

-0.4
0.3
0.3
1.6
2.3

-1.9
-1.5
-1.0
-1.5
-0.6

-1.2
-1.7
-1.2
-1.7
-1.1

0.22
2.04
2.06
1.70
1.36
2.80

0.19
2.01
2.08
1.55
1.37
2.81

0.16
1.96
2.02
1.42
1.17
2.85

0.19
2.00
2.02
1.36
1.16
2.89

0.16
1.93
1.93
1.37
1.09
2.80

0.14
1.89
1.91
1.34
1.03
2.76

0.13
1.81
1.85
1.24
0.93
2.71

0.13
1.73
1.74
1.17
0.87
2.67

0.10
1.69
1.72
1.14
0.84
2.62

-3.5
-0.4
-0.2
-1.8
-1.5
0.2

0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
-0.2

-1.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.9
-1.6
-0.3

-2.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
-1.0
-0.3

25.4
3.7

23.7
2.9

24.8
6.0

27.5
8.0

29.3
10.0

30.7
11.6

32.4
13.6

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

59854
0
5924
1096
9407
1524
41832
67
3
0

62963
0
6964
1130
15163
2494
35868
1328
14
3

63544
0
5899
805
13534
3056
37651
2538
49
11

71325
0
4988
822
16438
5570
39820
3508
169
11

76615
0
5371
563
18423
6600
41538
3812
296
11

79890
0
5347
198
20059
6635
42746
4429
464
11

82910
0
4659
842
18139
6948
45033
6608
668
12

0.6

1.9

0.8

0.0
-3.0
3.7
7.2
-1.0
43.8
32.3

-0.9
-3.5
3.1
8.0
1.0
4.2
19.6
0.0

-1.4
4.1
-0.2
0.5
0.8
5.7
8.5
1.0

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

14171
0
7951
7892
54
5
0
6220
2284
0
1865
3102
951
301
0
1

15139
0
8568
7719
827
22
0
6571
2668
0
1708
3441
950
471
0
1

16864
0
9814
8360
1388
66
0
7051
2229
0
1618
4131
885
416
0
1

19311
0
11570
9724
1703
143
0
7741
2875
0
1604
4598
629
910
0
1

19459
0
12365
10257
1861
247
0
7095
3028
0
1596
3992
349
1156
0
1

19204
0
12932
10400
2146
386
0
6272
3655
0
730
4049
250
1243
0
1

20883
0
14312
10778
2977
557
0
6571
3650
306
668
4522
173
1206
0
1

1.8

1.4

0.7

2.1
0.6
38.4
29.4

2.3
2.1
3.0
14.2

1.5
0.5
4.8
8.5

1.3
-0.2

0.1
3.1

-0.8
1.9

-1.4
2.9
-0.7
3.3

-0.1
-0.3
-8.9
10.8

-8.3
1.3
-6.7
0.4

0.0

0.0

1.0

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

46.8

44.8

40.6

39.8

42.4

44.8

42.6

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

39.6
11.3
0.0
72.6
0.0
72.6

40.5
17.0
0.0
63.1
0.0
63.1

40.3
15.4
0.0
68.1
0.0
68.1

43.8
20.2
0.0
68.8
0.0
68.8

43.9
23.9
0.0
68.2
0.0
68.2

41.8
23.6
0.0
68.0
0.0
68.0

40.5
21.9
3.8
71.5
0.0
71.5

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

80.3
7.9
56.4
11.7
4.2
0.0

90.3
8.7
63.0
13.4
5.0
0.0

95.6
9.2
67.8
12.3
6.1
0.0

101.1
9.3
71.9
12.8
7.0
0.0

104.9
9.9
73.5
13.4
8.1
0.0

113.6
10.6
78.5
14.5
10.0
0.0

120.1
11.2
81.2
15.6
12.1
0.0

126.4
11.7
83.8
16.5
14.4
0.0

132.4
12.1
86.6
17.3
16.4
0.0

1.8
1.5
1.9
0.5
3.9
-2.3

0.9
0.6
0.8
0.8
2.8
-0.5

1.4
1.3
1.0
1.5
4.1
0.9

1.0
0.8
0.6
1.0
3.1
0.6

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

35.4
21.6
12.2
1.7

41.7
26.5
13.2
2.0

54.2
35.1
16.6
2.4

57.8
37.0
19.0
1.8

61.0
37.7
21.5
1.8

67.2
41.5
23.7
2.0

71.8
44.0
25.7
2.2

75.0
45.6
27.2
2.3

77.7
47.2
28.1
2.4

4.4
5.0
3.2
3.9

1.2
0.7
2.6
-3.0

1.7
1.6
1.8
1.8

0.8
0.7
0.9
1.2

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4545
74
2570
1301
283
310
7

5200
79
2699
1646
309
461
6

6081
82
2922
2152
333
586
6

8034
82
3839
3118
311
675
9

8128
85
3762
3160
342
769
9

8403
89
3607
3441
363
893
10

8423
90
3450
3506
369
998
11

8220
89
3182
3480
365
1092
11

7989
87
2968
3412
336
1174
12

3.0
1.0
1.3
5.2
1.6
6.6
-1.5

2.9
0.4
2.6
3.9
0.3
2.8
4.4

0.4
0.5
-0.9
1.0
0.8
2.6
1.5

-0.5
-0.4
-1.5
-0.3
-0.9
1.6
1.0

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

69

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Belgium: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

13112
1085
0
10
10707
1310
23
1285
1
1
1

12734
269
0
0
10340
2125
29
2093
1
1
1

15509
191
0
2
12422
2894
39
2848
1
1
4

15450
57
6
0
12277
3110
25
3061
20
3
1

15749
13
0
0
12382
3353
31
3090
213
17
2

16237
12
0
0
12531
3694
33
3248
380
30
2

16506
13
0
0
12405
4087
35
3413
599
36
3

9787
15
0
0
5391
4382
37
3480
816
44
4

4651
14
0
0
0
4637
38
3484
1062
47
5

1.7
-16.0

0.2
-23.5

0.5
0.0

-11.9
0.9

-14.3
1.5
8.2
5.6
8.3
7.9
2.1
14.0

0.0
1.5
-2.2
0.8
66.7
32.5
-7.6

0.0
2.0
1.1
1.0
10.9
7.8
6.7

1.3
0.9
0.2
5.9
2.6
3.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

39625
9493
22236
26896
-4660
8217
-320

46863
9343
26667
26573
94
10418
350

50812
7566
29491
34067
-4576
13278
372

53775
5511
32623
32206
417
14817
542

48989
4278
29695
31702
-2006
14110
672

51039
4654
30207
32218
-2010
15111
785

51660
4956
29465
31574
-2110
15811
997

54611
6572
28548
30788
-2241
17839
1178

57060
8321
27662
30013
-2351
19474
1173

2.5
-2.2
2.9
2.4

-0.4
-5.5
0.1
-0.7

0.5
1.5
-0.1
0.0

1.0
5.3
-0.6
-0.5

4.9

0.6
6.1

1.1
4.0

2.1
1.6

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

48607
10244
18497
8169
10707
-320
1310

54940
8551
22877
10611
10340
350
2210

61461
8200
24100
13369
12422
372
2998

61147
5450
24747
14740
12277
542
3391

57354
4292
22312
14110
12382
672
3586

59694
4666
22625
15111
12531
785
3977

60477
4969
21776
15811
12405
997
4519

56517
6586
20667
17839
5391
1178
4856

53573
8336
19524
19474
0
1173
5067

2.4
-2.2
2.7
5.0
1.5

0.5
1.5
-0.2
1.1
0.0
4.0
2.3

-1.2
5.3
-1.1
2.1

8.6

-0.7
-6.3
-0.8
0.5
0.0
6.1
1.8

21.1
38.1
16.8
22.0
2.7

15.6
41.6
19.3
18.8
4.0

13.3
39.2
21.8
20.2
4.9

8.9
40.5
24.1
20.1
5.5

7.5
38.9
24.6
21.6
6.3

7.8
37.9
25.3
21.0
6.7

8.2
36.0
26.1
20.5
7.5

11.7
36.6
31.6
9.5
8.6

15.6
36.4
36.3
0.0
9.5

70202
7382

73524
7800

82639
7825

85695
8266

84965
8134

90265
8607

95166
9221

98165
9685

101016
10414

1.6
0.6

0.3
0.4

1.1
1.3

0.6
1.2

6544
3875
318
1983
368
0
0

7182
3764
232
2721
465
0
0

7493
3025
186
3790
492
0
0

7733
1889
411
4612
821
0
0

6640
1624
167
3919
931
0
0

7142
1862
272
4069
938
0
0

7861
2160
581
3769
1352
0
0

12044
3919
591
5763
1771
0
0

14919
5708
565
6718
1928
0
0

1.4
-2.4
-5.2
6.7
2.9

-1.2
-6.0
-1.1
0.3
6.6

1.7
2.9
13.3
-0.4
3.8

6.6
10.2
-0.3
6.0
3.6

35940
29821
0
10
6109

33857
29532
0
5
4320

42146
38492
0
41
3612

40638
37438
0
27
3173

37805
35112
175
4
2515

38732
35665
381
4
2682

37937
34714
568
4
2651

36484
33386
637
0
2460

35296
32176
679
0
2441

1.6
2.6

-1.1
-0.9

-0.7
-0.8
1.8

15.3
-5.1

-21.4
-3.6

0.0
-0.1
12.5
0.0
0.5

Energy Branch Consumption

2307

2270

2367

2125

1880

1917

1880

1802

1779

0.3

-2.3

0.0

-0.5

Non-Energy Uses

2749

5513

6865

7495

6296

6767

7124

7107

7329

9.6

-0.9

1.2

0.3

32071

36073

39131

38443

37073

38867

39269

38396

37781

2.0

-0.5

0.6

-0.4

12591
9987
2604
8360
3390
7730

13612
10689
2923
9320
4631
8511

15762
12028
3734
9491
4167
9710

13563
10578
2986
9938
5017
9926

12077
8829
3248
10011
5146
9839

13209
9459
3750
10256
5438
9964

13692
9641
4051
10203
5518
9856

13338
9304
4034
10062
5521
9475

13421
9218
4204
9866
5495
8999

2.3
1.9
3.7
1.3
2.1
2.3

-2.6
-3.0
-1.4
0.5
2.1
0.1

1.3
0.9
2.2
0.2
0.7
0.0

-0.2
-0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.0
-0.9

3787
14927
7249
4986
213
909
0

3306
16434
8517
5885
220
1710
0

3378
16130
10010
6667
490
2454
0

2080
16529
10009
6894
427
2503
0

1678
15749
9736
6999
510
2400
1

1722
15820
10331
7523
861
2608
1

1748
15115
10573
8107
1210
2514
2

1713
14289
10331
8516
1332
2213
2

1669
13405
10635
8703
1350
2018
2

-1.1
0.8
3.3
2.9
8.7
10.4

-6.8
-0.2
-0.3
0.5
0.4
-0.2

0.4
-0.4
0.8
1.5
9.0
0.5
8.7

-0.5
-1.2
0.1
0.7
1.1
-2.2
-0.3

9.4

7.2

2.5

0.5

-1.5

0.8
0.3
0.0
-0.1
0.7
0.8
2.4
1.2
-1.4

-1.6
-2.8
-5.9
-4.7
0.0
2.7
0.0
-1.2
-1.3

0.3
0.8
0.3
1.6
-1.1
1.0
-0.4
0.3
-0.4
2.0
-0.9

1.1
3.1
1.3
7.2
-1.3
0.0
-1.2
-0.5
-1.1
0.6
0.1

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.6
1.2

-0.8

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

139.9

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

106.4
21.8
5.3
30.3
18.7
7.6
22.7
9.0
24.4

112.6
23.0
5.1
28.8
20.1
10.5
25.0
10.0

535

910

1319

2084

2647

3086

3402

146.5
115.0
22.6
5.3
30.1
20.1
8.2
28.8
10.2
21.3

135.8
61.4
107.7
20.6
4.1
22.7
20.4
10.5
29.5
9.8
18.3

125.8
50.7
97.9
17.0
2.9
18.6
20.1
10.7
28.7
9.1
18.8

128.6
52.7
101.4
18.6
2.8
20.1
20.2
11.2
28.5
10.3
17.0

129.0
55.0
100.9
19.9
2.6
20.6
19.2
11.0
27.5
11.0
17.1

137.3
65.7
109.0
31.5
2.4
20.0
18.1
10.8
26.2
11.2
17.1

144.0
74.6
115.0
39.9
2.3
20.7
17.1
10.5
24.6
11.7
17.3

104.7

97.1

89.9

91.9

92.2

98.2

102.9

Source: PRIMES

70

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Belgium: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

9.948
221.2
219.7
2.19
75.2

10.131
244.0
225.2
2.05
79.6

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

10.239
278.8
220.4
1.87
76.1

10.446
302.1
202.4
1.76
78.2

10.784
311.4
184.2
1.71
75.7

11.070
351.5
169.8
1.70
75.9

11.322
389.5
155.3
1.67
75.8

11.547
423.2
133.5
1.93
84.8

11.745
458.5
116.8
2.15
92.5

31.6
11.3

35.0
11.6

35.0
11.2

39.9
11.4

48.4
12.4

53.8
12.7

55.4
12.1

0.3
2.3
0.0
-1.6

0.5
1.1
-1.8
-0.9

0.5
2.3
-1.7
-0.2

0.4
1.6
-2.8
2.6

1.0

3.3

1.4

91.3
109.5
98.1
45.4
50.6

100.2
110.3
124.2
44.2
49.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
46.5
50.5

85.7
99.3
108.9
46.4
52.4

77.7
99.3
109.6
44.4
51.8

72.0
93.5
101.2
40.6
51.4

66.4
86.1
92.6
38.0
49.5

61.3
79.0
84.4
34.3
47.6

56.8
72.6
77.4
30.3
45.2

0.9
-0.9
0.2
0.3
0.0

-2.5
-0.1
0.9
-0.5
0.3

-1.6
-1.4
-1.7
-1.5
-0.5

-1.5
-1.7
-1.8
-2.2
-0.9

0.30
2.47
2.41
2.24
2.23
2.94

0.30
2.34
2.11
2.16
2.26
2.94

0.25
2.23
1.91
2.11
1.96
2.96

0.22
2.16
1.67
2.05
2.09
2.97

0.18
2.11
1.54
2.01
2.07
2.92

0.18
2.06
1.52
1.97
2.06
2.86

0.18
2.00
1.51
1.89
2.00
2.79

0.27
1.96
1.50
1.80
1.95
2.76

0.33
1.93
1.54
1.73
1.91
2.73

-1.6
-1.0
-2.3
-0.6
-1.3
0.1

-3.3
-0.6
-2.1
-0.5
0.6
-0.1

-0.2
-0.5
-0.2
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4

6.5
-0.3
0.2
-0.8
-0.4
-0.2

1.3
0.0

2.3
0.0

3.5
2.2

5.3
4.7

6.6
7.1

7.9
8.4

8.8
9.5

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

82639
48148
13089
586
19024
1317
459
15
0
0

85695
47586
7774
1734
25013
3071
288
227
1
0

84965
48002
6127
894
22613
4363
366
2481
118
0

90265
48578
7595
1275
23470
4365
388
4422
172
0

95166
48092
8895
2888
21777
5946
408
6967
192
0

98165
20899
19723
2934
36244
8235
428
9492
210
0

101016
0
32353
2819
43896
8923
447
12354
225
0

0.3
0.0
-7.3
4.3
1.7
12.7
-2.2
66.7

1.1
0.0
3.8
12.4
-0.4
3.1
1.1
10.9
5.0

0.6

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

13941
5801
117
103
14
0
0
8024
1394
0
1964
4891
632
537
0
0

14716
5817
285
116
167
2
0
8615
1680
0
1709
5710
639
556
0
0

17347
5941
1308
116
1039
153
0
10098
2191
0
1476
7166
653
803
0
0

18476
5941
1989
125
1686
178
0
10546
2716
0
1076
7473
849
1147
0
0

20617
5941
2825
138
2487
200
0
11851
2695
0
1153
7338
1844
1515
0
0

21966
2516
3869
148
3503
218
0
15580
2933
0
2484
9899
1480
1717
0
0

23444
0
4986
150
4603
233
0
18458
2811
133
4670
10838
1473
1478
0
0

2.2
0.2
27.4
1.2
53.8

1.7
0.0
8.0
1.8
9.1
2.7

1.3

2.3
4.6

1.6
2.1

4.5
0.4

-2.8
3.9
0.3
4.1

-2.4
0.2
10.9
6.5

15.0
4.0
-2.2
-0.2

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

64.6

63.6

53.7

53.6

50.6

49.0

47.1

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

39.0
6.8
0.0
60.4
58.3
2.2

41.8
8.8
0.0
59.7
55.5
4.2

44.0
12.6
0.0
65.1
56.5
8.6

44.2
16.0
0.0
64.2
53.8
10.4

43.2
17.8
0.0
64.7
50.5
14.2

47.9
19.8
0.0
40.0
21.3
18.7

50.7
19.1
1.3
21.7
0.0
21.7

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

13.8
-0.2
7.3
4.1
0.9
5.9
1.6

5.8
0.8
6.3
1.6

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

116.4
11.4
90.5
7.3
6.6
0.7

127.3
13.1
99.1
7.6
7.0
0.5

137.1
13.3
106.5
8.6
8.4
0.3

145.6
17.5
110.1
10.1
7.6
0.3

152.3
18.9
113.6
11.1
8.3
0.3

165.3
20.1
122.8
12.5
9.7
0.3

172.6
20.8
126.4
13.5
11.5
0.3

178.7
21.3
129.9
14.2
13.1
0.3

185.5
21.6
134.2
14.8
14.7
0.3

1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7
2.4
-7.4

1.1
3.6
0.6
2.6
-0.1
-0.1

1.3
1.0
1.1
2.0
3.3
0.5

0.7
0.4
0.6
0.9
2.5
0.2

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

48.3
34.6
8.4
5.4

58.6
45.6
7.3
5.7

65.9
51.0
7.7
7.2

60.5
43.8
8.1
8.6

59.3
42.4
8.3
8.6

63.2
45.4
9.0
8.8

66.6
47.9
9.6
9.1

70.4
51.1
9.8
9.5

74.6
54.8
10.0
9.8

3.2
4.0
-0.9
3.0

-1.1
-1.8
0.8
1.8

1.2
1.2
1.4
0.6

1.1
1.4
0.5
0.7

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

7730
104
4157
2210
178
952
130

8511
118
4474
2523
202
945
248

9710
118
4677
3065
184
1530
136

9926
153
5260
2827
186
1281
218

9839
164
5209
2726
187
1334
220

9964
169
5067
2889
196
1420
223

9856
166
4820
2929
192
1519
230

9475
161
4402
2986
185
1504
236

8999
154
3954
3020
165
1464
242

2.3
1.3
1.2
3.3
0.3
4.9
0.5

0.1
3.3
1.1
-1.2
0.2
-1.4
4.9

0.0
0.1
-0.8
0.7
0.3
1.3
0.4

-0.9
-0.7
-2.0
0.3
-1.5
-0.4
0.5

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

71

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Bulgaria: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

9136
5121
60
11
3783
161
161
0
0
0
0

10191
5287
43
40
4453
369
151
219
0
0
0

9846
4310
43
12
4689
792
230
562
0
0
0

10612
4178
30
384
4812
1207
373
801
0
0
33

9707
4376
26
237
3792
1277
350
848
35
3
41

9829
4374
25
200
3792
1439
354
921
91
15
58

11792
4362
24
169
5624
1613
359
1018
132
33
71

12240
2849
23
143
7404
1820
365
1140
169
48
97

12632
3070
22
122
7404
2013
375
1249
205
64
121

0.8
-1.7
-3.4
1.3
2.2
17.2
3.6

-0.1
0.2
-4.8
34.4
-2.1
4.9
4.3
4.2

2.0
0.0
-0.8
-3.3
4.0
2.4
0.3
1.8
14.2
26.5
5.7

0.7
-3.5
-0.9
-3.2
2.8
2.2
0.4
2.1
4.5
6.9
5.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

17836
3527
8553
8264
289
5430
326

13484
2424
6519
8021
-1502
4563
-14

8718
2258
4118
5389
-1271
2742
-397

9516
2550
5186
6423
-1237
2458
-652

9526
2713
4689
6289
-1599
2524
-359

10451
3418
5029
6730
-1702
2601
-536

9946
2990
5081
6803
-1722
2840
-887

9932
2885
5065
6793
-1728
3144
-1087

9646
2767
4896
6606
-1709
3173
-1120

-6.9
-4.4
-7.0
-4.2

0.9
1.9
1.3
1.6

0.4
1.0
0.8
0.8

-0.3
-0.8
-0.4
-0.3

-6.6

-0.8

1.2

1.1

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

27981
8706
9609
5395
3783
326
161

23312
7673
6253
4584
4453
-14
363

18647
6417
4218
2932
4689
-397
788

19984
6892
4947
2804
4812
-652
1182

19121
7089
4603
2761
3792
-359
1236

20156
7792
4930
2801
3792
-536
1378

21609
7352
4976
3009
5624
-887
1535

22038
5734
4955
3288
7404
-1087
1743

22139
5837
4780
3295
7404
-1120
1943

-4.0
-3.0
-7.9
-5.9
2.2

0.3
1.0
0.9
-0.6
-2.1

1.2
0.4
0.8
0.9
4.0

0.2
-2.3
-0.4
0.9
2.8

17.2

4.6

2.2

2.4

31.1
34.3
19.3
13.5
0.6

32.9
26.8
19.7
19.1
1.6

34.4
22.6
15.7
25.1
4.2

34.5
24.8
14.0
24.1
5.9

37.1
24.1
14.4
19.8
6.5

38.7
24.5
13.9
18.8
6.8

34.0
23.0
13.9
26.0
7.1

26.0
22.5
14.9
33.6
7.9

26.4
21.6
14.9
33.4
8.8

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

42133
9435

41219
11161

40639
10721

43964
9679

39691
8123

43278
7823

49667
7828

56005
9754

58098
9935

-0.4
1.3

-0.2
-2.7

2.3
-0.4

1.6
2.4

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

10103
6800
951
2352
0
0
0

9160
6734
612
1813
0
0
0

6281
5245
170
863
3
0
0

6520
5670
172
676
2
0
0

6261
5592
44
582
42
0
0

7038
6276
31
628
103
0
0

6561
5851
28
578
97
8
0

5081
4340
42
538
130
30
0

5250
4516
52
461
167
53
0

-4.6
-2.6
-15.8
-9.5

0.0
0.6
-12.6
-3.9
29.1

0.5
0.5
-4.4
-0.1
8.6

-2.2
-2.6
6.4
-2.2
5.5
21.6

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

13098
8358
0
2781
1960

11654
8040
0
1544
2069

7655
5449
0
324
1882

8936
6683
0
370
1883

7764
6467
23
374
900

8083
6906
43
224
910

8056
6954
57
168
877

7962
6930
101
141
790

7659
6728
166
33
732

-5.2
-4.2

0.1
1.7

-19.3
-0.4

1.4
-7.1

0.4
0.7
9.5
-7.7
-0.3

-0.5
-0.3
11.3
-15.0
-1.8

Energy Branch Consumption

1357

1457

1145

1278

1317

1325

1339

1524

1518

-1.7

1.4

0.2

1.3

Non-Energy Uses

1427

1236

1264

1067

928

1007

1099

1168

1198

-1.2

-3.0

1.7

0.9

16102

11409

8602

9595

9802

10539

11136

11539

11721

-6.1

1.3

1.3

0.5

8969
5579
3390
2228
2382
2523

6034
4891
1143
2257
1139
1980

3652
2829
824
2165
962
1823

3720
2851
870
2145
1130
2599

3848
2825
1023
2132
1174
2648

4221
2943
1278
2141
1220
2957

4556
3034
1523
2160
1248
3172

4701
3018
1684
2192
1283
3364

4774
2966
1808
2145
1309
3494

-8.6
-6.6
-13.2
-0.3
-8.7
-3.2

0.5
0.0
2.2
-0.2
2.0
3.8

1.7
0.7
4.1
0.1
0.6
1.8

0.5
-0.2
1.7
-0.1
0.5
1.0

1477
4983
2066
3033
4543
0
0

1280
2900
1787
2467
2798
178
0

860
3004
1231
2075
877
555
0

951
3672
1025
2208
939
800
0

1128
3649
1120
2265
830
809
0

1155
3977
1245
2418
915
828
0

1156
4099
1433
2616
898
933
1

1080
4126
1681
2797
816
1039
1

1026
4033
1827
2930
776
1129
1

-5.3
-4.9
-5.0
-3.7
-15.2

2.8
2.0
-0.9
0.9
-0.5
3.8

0.2
1.2
2.5
1.4
0.8
1.4
12.0

-1.2
-0.2
2.5
1.1
-1.5
1.9
1.4

737

958

1117

1245

1457

1637

1826

65.4
42.1
24.9
1.3
8.3
1.2
1.2
5.2
4.6
18.7

67.0
41.2
45.1
26.1
1.6
7.5
1.2
1.1
7.6
5.1
16.8

66.5
40.9
45.2
25.4
1.6
8.1
1.2
1.1
7.6
5.6
15.8

69.0
43.5
48.9
27.9
1.6
8.5
1.3
1.2
8.5
6.1
13.9

67.9
42.3
47.8
25.9
1.6
8.9
1.2
1.1
9.0
6.6
13.5

54.9
29.2
34.8
12.6
1.6
9.0
1.1
1.0
9.5
6.8
13.3

53.0
27.1
32.6
10.6
1.5
8.7
1.1
1.0
9.7
6.9
13.4

58.7

60.1

59.7

61.9

60.9

49.2

47.5

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

111.5

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

72.5
44.9
1.6
11.2
3.0
4.8
7.1
7.6
31.4

58.0
38.1
1.4
9.4
2.2
1.4
5.6
7.0

4.2

2.7

2.3

-5.2

0.2

-5.3
-5.7
-2.1
-3.0
-8.9
-13.0
-3.0
-4.9
-5.0

0.7
0.2
2.5
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
3.8
2.0
-1.7

0.2
0.3
0.6
0.2
-0.2
0.9
0.0
-0.2
1.8
1.6
-1.5

-2.5
-4.4
-3.8
-8.5
-0.6
-0.2
-1.0
-1.3
0.7
0.5
-0.1

Source: PRIMES

72

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Bulgaria: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

8.767
20.1
1390.6
2.59
63.6

8.427
17.6
1322.4
2.49
57.2

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

8.191
16.9
1102.5
2.26
46.6

7.761
21.9
913.3
2.26
47.4

7.564
25.8
742.5
2.36
49.5

7.382
30.5
661.9
2.43
51.5

7.188
34.7
623.6
2.21
45.8

6.974
38.4
573.2
1.58
44.8

6.753
42.2
524.9
1.47
43.3

5.2
30.9

6.6
30.1

7.1
27.4

8.8
29.0

11.1
31.9

13.3
34.5

14.3
33.9

-0.7
-1.7
-2.3
-1.4

-0.8
4.3
-3.9
0.5

-0.5
3.0
-1.7
-0.7

-0.6
2.0
-1.7
-4.0

3.1

4.6

2.6

140.7
92.4
201.6
35.8
34.2

112.0
105.2
112.3
32.3
44.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
28.0
50.3

72.1
74.2
93.9
31.2
55.0

61.9
63.2
84.9
29.3
50.1

52.0
56.9
73.1
28.3
49.3

45.8
55.5
67.2
27.8
48.7

41.1
54.9
63.0
27.5
48.0

37.4
53.9
58.7
26.7
47.0

-3.4
0.8
-6.8
-2.4
3.9

-4.7
-4.5
-1.6
0.4
0.0

-3.0
-1.3
-2.3
-0.5
-0.3

-2.0
-0.3
-1.3
-0.4
-0.4

0.45
1.62
1.25
1.35
2.00
2.81

0.49
1.62
1.55
0.97
1.22
2.84

0.46
1.85
2.27
0.55
1.23
2.87

0.44
1.81
2.02
0.56
0.96
2.91

0.46
1.85
2.12
0.57
0.97
2.87

0.46
1.85
2.02
0.59
1.01
2.86

0.39
1.82
1.95
0.56
0.90
2.85

0.17
1.79
1.91
0.52
0.80
2.82

0.14
1.75
1.83
0.51
0.75
2.76

0.2
1.3
6.2
-8.7
-4.7
0.2

0.1
0.0
-0.7
0.4
-2.4
0.0

-1.7
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1
-0.8
-0.1

-9.5
-0.4
-0.7
-0.9
-1.8
-0.3

7.6
0.2

9.1
0.1

10.5
1.4

10.9
2.2

12.2
2.8

13.1
4.4

14.4
6.8

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

40639
18175
16820
590
2374
8
2673
0
0
0

43964
18650
18056
600
2312
5
4336
5
0
0

39691
14700
17264
153
2919
180
4065
406
3
0

43278
14700
19639
90
3228
426
4116
1056
24
0

49667
22350
18259
80
2795
412
4169
1535
58
9

56005
30000
16390
103
2622
538
4242
1970
105
35

58098
30000
17848
138
2486
660
4357
2381
164
62

-0.2
-2.1
0.3
-12.6
2.1
36.7
4.3

2.3
4.3
0.6
-6.3
-0.4
8.6
0.3
14.2
33.4

1.6
3.0
-0.2
5.6
-1.2
4.8
0.4
4.5
10.9
21.6

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

10934
3473
1908
1908
0
0
0
5554
972
0
4430
812
271
40
0
0

10174
2678
1975
1967
8
0
0
5521
1108
0
4376
834
271
40
0
0

9634
1885
2489
2097
389
3
0
5260
1198
0
4179
794
276
11
0
0

10314
1910
3076
2122
929
25
0
5327
1325
0
4362
671
279
15
0
0

10331
2870
3521
2136
1324
61
0
3940
1377
0
3086
560
253
41
0
1

12290
3817
3986
2191
1686
109
0
4487
1329
745
3750
447
213
72
0
4

12889
3817
4521
2340
2011
170
0
4551
1342
1015
3890
417
144
93
0
7

-1.3
-5.9
2.7
0.9

0.7
4.3
3.5
0.2
13.0
33.4

2.2
2.9
2.5
0.9
4.3
10.9

-0.5
2.1

-2.8
1.4

1.5
-0.3

-0.6
-0.2
0.2
-12.2

-3.0
-3.4
-0.9
14.2

2.3
-2.9
-5.5
8.6

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

38.0

44.1

43.2

44.5

51.5

47.3

46.7

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

27.1
8.5
0.0
51.3
44.7
6.6

27.7
6.8
0.0
52.3
42.4
9.9

28.2
14.8
0.0
48.8
37.0
11.7

28.6
17.6
0.0
47.0
34.0
13.0

28.3
15.1
0.0
57.4
45.0
12.4

33.3
13.2
15.4
65.9
53.6
12.3

34.7
13.5
19.4
64.8
51.6
13.1

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

21.6

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

51.9
25.9
14.8
8.1
2.8
0.3

41.6
15.7
18.6
5.0
2.1
0.2

43.0
13.9
23.6
3.9
1.7
0.0

47.5
11.4
29.7
2.8
3.6
0.0

54.5
11.4
35.6
3.0
4.5
0.0

61.7
11.9
40.3
3.1
6.4
0.0

66.4
12.1
42.7
3.4
8.2
0.0

70.6
12.3
44.4
3.7
10.3
0.0

74.6
12.3
46.4
3.9
12.0
0.0

-1.9
-6.0
4.8
-7.1
-5.3
-22.7

2.4
-1.9
4.2
-2.7
10.5
-1.7

2.0
0.6
1.8
1.4
6.2
0.6

1.2
0.1
0.8
1.5
3.8
0.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

19.3
3.6
14.1
1.6

14.3
5.2
8.6
0.5

12.3
6.4
5.5
0.3

20.3
14.4
5.2
0.8

21.0
14.8
5.3
0.8

24.6
17.7
6.0
0.9

27.2
19.5
6.7
1.0

29.6
21.1
7.4
1.1

32.0
22.8
8.0
1.2

-4.5
5.9
-8.9
-15.1

5.5
8.8
-0.4
9.8

2.6
2.8
2.4
2.1

1.6
1.6
1.8
1.7

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

2523
293
1266
452
217
276
18

1980
127
923
504
144
276
6

1823
108
982
551
78
101
3

2599
87
1186
1058
65
200
4

2648
85
1259
993
65
243
4

2957
87
1314
1147
70
335
4

3172
85
1350
1255
75
403
4

3364
82
1389
1346
78
464
5

3494
78
1398
1437
69
507
5

-3.2
-9.5
-2.5
2.0
-9.8
-9.6
-16.9

3.8
-2.4
2.5
6.1
-1.8
9.2
2.6

1.8
0.0
0.7
2.4
1.5
5.2
1.7

1.0
-0.9
0.3
1.4
-0.9
2.3
1.4

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

73

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Cyprus: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

6
0
0
0
0
6
0
6
0
0
0

42
0
0
0
0
42
0
11
0
31
0

45
0
0
0
0
45
0
10
0
35
0

49
0
0
0
0
49
0
7
0
41
0

86
0
0
0
0
86
0
18
0
68
0

174
0
0
0
0
174
0
37
26
111
0

257
0
0
0
0
257
0
54
60
143
0

325
0
0
0
0
325
0
73
82
170
0

387
0
0
0
0
387
0
84
95
208
1

23.2

6.6

11.6

4.2

23.2

6.6

11.6

4.2

5.8

6.0

12.0

6.7

7.7
15.2

4.4
4.8
3.9
23.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

1638
68
1570
631
939
0
0

2024
17
2007
797
1210
0
0

2547
36
2511
1153
1358
0
0

2816
43
2773
0
2773
0
0

3088
37
3050
0
3050
0
0

3068
42
2660
0
2660
365
0

3188
49
2713
0
2713
423
0

3273
48
2761
0
2761
458
0

3233
52
2664
0
2664
506
0

4.5
-6.3
4.8
6.2
3.8

1.9
0.4
2.0
-60.7
8.4

0.3
2.9
-1.2
-0.5
-1.2
144.8

0.1
0.5
-0.2
0.0
-0.2
1.8

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

1519
60
1453
0
0
0
6

1976
13
1920
0
0
0
42

2390
35
2310
0
0
0
45

2466
36
2382
0
0
0
49

2856
37
2733
0
0
0
86

2910
42
2327
365
0
0
176

3105
49
2373
423
0
0
260

3247
48
2411
458
0
0
330

3259
52
2303
506
0
0
399

4.6
-5.3
4.7

1.8
0.6
1.7

0.8
2.9
-1.4
144.8

0.5
0.5
-0.3
1.8

23.2

6.6

11.7

4.4

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

4.0
95.7
0.0
0.0
0.4

0.7
97.2
0.0
0.0
2.1

1.5
96.6
0.0
0.0
1.9

1.4
96.6
0.0
0.0
2.0

1.3
95.7
0.0
0.0
3.0

1.4
80.0
12.5
0.0
6.0

1.6
76.4
13.6
0.0
8.4

1.5
74.2
14.1
0.0
10.2

1.6
70.7
15.5
0.0
12.2

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

1974
207

2473
236

3369
353

4377
417

4709
421

5398
410

6224
462

6902
505

7414
509

5.5
5.5

3.4
1.8

2.8
0.9

1.8
1.0

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

516
0
516
0
0
0
0

641
0
641
0
0
0
0

884
0
884
0
0
0
0

1077
0
1077
0
0
0
0

1093
0
1085
0
7
0
0

942
0
557
365
21
0
0

999
0
545
423
31
0
0

1052
0
548
458
46
0
0

997
0
437
505
55
0
0

5.5

2.1

-0.9

0.0

5.5

2.1

-6.7
16.0

-2.2
1.8
5.7

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

643
643
0
0
0

828
828
0
0
0

1171
1171
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

4
0
3
0
0

11
0
10
0
0

18
0
18
0
0

25
0
25
0
0

33
0
33
0
0

6.2
6.2

-44.0
-60.7

17.5
-0.5
17.8

6.4
0.0
6.5

Energy Branch Consumption

41

43

54

22

21

17

18

19

16

2.7

-9.1

-1.5

-1.0

Non-Energy Uses

31

62

84

71

61

60

61

63

67

10.6

-3.1

-0.1

1.0

1099

1414

1640

1809

2072

2311

2477

2589

2661

4.1

2.4

1.8

0.7

277
127
150
110
82
629

391
220
171
179
91
752

442
225
217
215
129
854

316
196
120
319
203
972

326
205
120
363
314
1070

350
223
127
404
399
1157

370
236
134
450
454
1203

389
249
140
469
505
1226

399
257
143
489
537
1236

4.8
5.9
3.7
6.9
4.6
3.1

-3.0
-0.9
-5.7
5.4
9.3
2.3

1.3
1.4
1.1
2.2
3.8
1.2

0.8
0.9
0.6
0.8
1.7
0.3

76
867
0
151
0
6
0

13
1167
0
191
0
42
0

35
1302
0
258
0
45
0

36
1385
0
340
0
49
0

37
1586
0
369
2
78
0

42
1710
0
429
3
127
0

49
1767
0
496
4
160
0

48
1800
0
550
5
186
0

52
1799
0
594
4
212
0

-7.5
4.2

0.6
2.0

5.5

3.7

23.2

5.6

2.9
1.1
5.4
3.0
9.1
7.5
10.1

0.5
0.2
-0.8
1.8
0.4
2.9
0.3

Annual % Change

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption

(B)

TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

5.5
4.6
1.7
0.1
0.8
0.2
0.0
1.9
0.0
0.8
100.0

5.7
2.1
0.1
1.1
0.2
0.0
2.2
0.0

44

48

82

167

242

306

369

9.5
7.0
2.8
0.1
1.3
0.2
0.0
2.5
0.0
2.5

9.4
4.9
7.7
3.5
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.1
2.9
0.0
1.7

9.9
5.1
8.3
3.5
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.3
3.2
0.0
1.6

9.5
4.4
7.9
2.6
0.0
0.9
0.5
0.4
3.4
0.0
1.7

9.8
4.7
8.2
2.7
0.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
3.5
0.0
1.6

10.2
4.9
8.4
2.8
0.0
1.0
0.4
0.5
3.6
0.0
1.8

10.0
4.8
8.1
2.6
0.0
1.0
0.4
0.5
3.6
0.0
1.9

174.1

173.2

181.8

175.2

180.1

186.6

184.2

6.4

11.4

4.3

5.7

0.4

4.2
5.5
1.8
4.3
2.4

1.8
2.1

-0.1
-0.8
-0.2
-2.4

0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.6

-3.7
7.9

3.1

2.2

1.2
0.2
3.0
1.1

0.5
-1.4
1.5
0.2

11.7

-4.5

0.3

1.5

Source: PRIMES

74

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Cyprus: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

0.573
7.5
203.6
3.04
103.9

0.645
9.7
204.4
2.88
99.1

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

0.690
11.7
205.1
2.92
98.7

0.749
13.7
180.5
3.13
100.8

0.821
15.6
183.6
2.92
97.3

0.888
18.7
155.8
2.71
94.6

0.955
22.5
137.8
2.64
92.5

1.017
26.7
121.5
2.58
91.0

1.072
30.9
105.4
2.50
89.3

1.2
10.4

1.8
13.2

2.2
14.0

2.6
13.7

3.3
14.8

3.9
14.7

4.2
13.7

1.9
4.6
0.1
-0.4

1.7
2.9
-1.1
0.0

1.5
3.8
-2.8
-1.0

1.2
3.2
-2.7
-0.5

6.1

4.4

2.4

71.9
92.3
113.7
50.5
216.8

89.2
102.4
89.3
48.7
219.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
46.1
225.2

68.2
124.2
134.4
47.4
226.3

63.4
126.1
181.9
46.7
226.1

58.4
115.8
191.5
44.0
224.5

52.7
106.3
179.6
40.6
216.5

48.1
93.3
167.5
36.8
206.6

44.0
83.9
153.1
33.5
195.4

3.4
0.8
-1.3
-0.9
0.4

-4.4
2.3
6.2
0.1
0.0

-1.8
-1.7
-0.1
-1.4
-0.4

-1.8
-2.3
-1.6
-1.9
-1.0

0.84
2.62
3.00
1.60
0.00
2.97

0.83
2.51
2.86
1.11
0.00
2.97

0.84
2.46
2.87
1.05
0.00
2.98

0.79
2.36
2.71
1.42
0.42
2.96

0.74
2.34
2.67
1.33
1.10
2.95

0.49
2.27
2.65
1.21
1.08
2.94

0.44
2.20
2.63
1.10
1.02
2.92

0.41
2.14
2.60
0.95
1.04
2.91

0.35
2.09
2.57
0.87
1.01
2.89

0.0
-0.6
-0.4
-4.2

-1.3
-0.5
-0.7
2.4

0.0

-0.1

-5.1
-0.6
-0.1
-1.9
-0.7
-0.1

-2.3
-0.5
-0.3
-2.3
-0.2
-0.1

3.1
0.0

3.0
0.0

4.5
0.5

8.2
1.4

11.1
2.3

13.5
3.3

16.0
4.6

3369
0
0
3369
0
0
0
0
0
0

4377
0
0
4376
0
0
0
0
1
0

4709
0
0
4670
0
28
0
0
11
0

5398
0
0
2652
2323
88
0
300
34
0

6224
0
0
2606
2693
136
0
693
97
0

6902
0
0
2614
2928
218
0
949
192
0

7414
0
0
2089
3532
262
0
1104
428
0

3.4

2.8

1.8

3.3

-5.7
17.0

-2.2
2.7
6.8

23.9

4.8
16.0

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

940
0
0
0
0
0
0
940
0
0
0
0
940
0
0
0

1105
0
1
0
0
1
0
1103
0
0
0
0
1103
0
0
0

1473
0
7
0
0
7
0
1466
2
0
0
0
1462
4
0
0

1816
0
179
0
158
21
0
1637
5
0
0
566
1059
12
0
0

1978
0
390
0
330
60
0
1588
6
0
0
566
1004
19
0
0

2079
0
564
0
445
119
0
1515
7
0
0
600
889
25
0
0

2624
0
766
0
510
256
0
1858
9
0
0
1054
775
29
0
0

4.6

3.0

2.9

48.6

7.0

23.2

4.4
15.7

4.5

0.8
12.4

1.6
4.2

4.5

-3.7
17.2

6.4
-2.5
4.7

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

38.9

42.6

34.6

32.7

34.7

36.7

31.4

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

32.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

35.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

37.0
0.3
0.0
0.8
0.0
0.8

46.2
0.5
0.0
7.8
0.0
7.8

46.8
0.6
0.0
14.9
0.0
14.9

47.1
0.6
0.0
19.7
0.0
19.7

50.7
0.6
0.0
24.2
0.0
24.2

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

8.6
0.9
3.1
0.0
4.7
0.0

10.0
1.0
3.6
0.0
5.4
0.0

12.1
1.1
4.1
0.0
6.9
0.0

13.9
1.3
4.9
0.0
7.7
0.0

16.4
1.3
6.1
0.0
8.9
0.0

18.7
1.4
6.6
0.0
10.7
0.0

21.1
1.5
6.9
0.0
12.7
0.0

23.6
1.6
7.2
0.0
14.8
0.0

26.1
1.7
7.5
0.0
16.8
0.0

3.5
2.8
2.8

3.1
1.8
4.2

2.5
1.4
1.2

2.2
1.1
0.9

4.0

2.5

3.6

2.9

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

0.9
0.9
0.0
0.0

1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0

1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0

1.4
1.4
0.0
0.0

1.3
1.3
0.0
0.0

1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0

1.6
1.6
0.0
0.0

1.7
1.7
0.0
0.0

1.9
1.9
0.0
0.0

3.9
3.9

0.3
0.3

1.8
1.8

1.5
1.5

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

629
18
175
194
0
242
0

752
21
200
264
0
267
0

854
24
246
295
0
290
0

972
26
331
315
0
299
0

1070
28
393
305
0
344
0

1157
29
398
335
0
395
0

1203
30
391
347
0
434
0

1226
30
370
358
0
468
0

1236
30
342
362
0
501
0

3.1
2.6
3.5
4.3

2.3
1.6
4.8
0.3

1.2
0.7
0.0
1.3

0.3
0.0
-1.3
0.4

1.8

1.7

2.4

1.4

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

75

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Czech Republic: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

40090
36321
223
201
3246
100
100
0
0
0
0

32221
27946
296
198
3155
626
172
454
0
0
0

29911
25049
461
169
3506
727
151
576
0
0
0

32845
23570
600
154
6379
2142
205
1933
2
2
0

30291
20250
200
162
6834
2844
195
2583
30
36
0

30750
19512
200
166
7675
3197
198
2850
61
88
0

31895
19034
200
163
8841
3656
203
3232
93
128
0

33277
17796
200
157
11040
4085
206
3614
108
157
0

34050
17504
198
153
11988
4208
209
3683
122
193
0

-2.9
-3.6
7.5
-1.7
0.8
22.0
4.2

0.1
-2.1
-8.0
-0.4
6.9
14.6
2.6
16.2

0.5
-0.6
0.0
0.1
2.6
2.5
0.4
2.3
12.0
13.5
2.1

0.7
-0.8
-0.1
-0.6
3.1
1.4
0.3
1.3
2.8
4.2
0.1

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

7684
-5690
8648
7440
1209
4786
-60

8716
-5762
8019
7071
948
6424
36

9448
-4765
7593
5655
1937
7482
-861

12896
-3179
9813
7857
1956
7535
-1086

14056
-3077
10202
8251
1951
7940
-818

14802
-3403
11180
9000
2180
8136
-945

14934
-3497
11415
9179
2236
8008
-839

14435
-3577
11504
9247
2258
7666
-1019

13731
-3733
11213
9127
2086
7510
-1152

2.1

4.1

0.6

-0.8

-1.3
-2.7
4.8
4.6

3.0
3.8
0.1
0.6

1.1
1.1
1.4
0.1

-0.2
-0.1
-0.7
-0.6

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

48992
31433
9025
5248
3246
-60
100

41605
23062
8174
6552
3155
36
626

40506
21598
8036
7500
3506
-861
727

45319
20300
10068
7703
6379
-1086
1955

44347
17174
10402
8102
6834
-818
2653

45552
16109
11380
8303
7675
-945
3031

46829
15538
11615
8172
8841
-839
3502

47712
14219
11704
7823
11040
-1019
3946

47781
13771
11410
7664
11988
-1152
4100

-1.9
-3.7
-1.2
3.6
0.8

0.9
-2.3
2.6
0.8
6.9

0.5
-1.0
1.1
0.1
2.6

0.2
-1.2
-0.2
-0.6
3.1

22.0

13.8

2.8

1.6

64.2
18.4
10.7
6.6
0.2

55.4
19.6
15.7
7.6
1.5

53.3
19.8
18.5
8.7
1.8

44.8
22.2
17.0
14.1
4.3

38.7
23.5
18.3
15.4
6.0

35.4
25.0
18.2
16.8
6.7

33.2
24.8
17.5
18.9
7.5

29.8
24.5
16.4
23.1
8.3

28.8
23.9
16.0
25.1
8.6

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

62260
8840

60564
9047

72898
10756

81916
11776

80425
11085

89581
12310

94634
13085

103594
15363

109713
16769

1.6
2.0

1.0
0.3

1.6
1.7

1.5
2.5

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

15255
14213
741
300
0
0
0

11006
10002
311
573
119
0
0

15753
13911
203
1270
369
0
0

15729
14061
152
1292
224
0
0

15049
13393
41
1205
410
0
0

14238
12258
51
1350
578
0
0

14066
12040
39
1240
748
0
0

13080
10877
35
1233
935
0
0

12928
10584
30
1221
1093
0
0

0.3
-0.2
-12.2
15.5

-0.5
-0.4
-14.7
-0.5
1.0

-0.7
-1.1
-0.5
0.3
6.2

-0.8
-1.3
-2.7
-0.2
3.9

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

18077
8005
0
1830
8242

14555
7299
11
1361
5885

11640
6218
0
966
4456

13441
8278
3
922
4239

12155
8519
238
798
2599

12670
9291
349
688
2341

12760
9480
464
675
2140

12795
9551
518
708
2018

12576
9432
554
635
1955

-4.3
-2.5

0.4
3.2

-6.2
-6.0

-1.9
-5.2

0.5
1.1
6.9
-1.7
-1.9

-0.1
-0.1
1.8
-0.6
-0.9

Energy Branch Consumption

2116

1673

1919

1944

2040

2139

2151

2279

2353

-1.0

0.6

0.5

0.9

Non-Energy Uses

1713

2379

2090

2939

2856

3203

3341

3509

3564

2.0

3.2

1.6

0.6

32224

25067

23562

25846

26638

28471

29199

29482

29247

-3.1

1.2

0.9

0.0

16258
6961
9297
7848
5306
2812

12339
5795
6544
5433
4438
2857

9723
5990
3733
5301
4161
4377

9593
6654
2939
6019
4070
6164

9311
6058
3252
6265
4181
6881

10042
6376
3666
6452
4332
7645

10137
6295
3841
6637
4501
7924

10153
6240
3913
6637
4717
7976

10108
6150
3959
6546
4827
7766

-5.0
-1.5
-8.7
-3.8
-2.4
4.5

-0.4
0.1
-1.4
1.7
0.0
4.6

0.9
0.4
1.7
0.6
0.7
1.4

0.0
-0.2
0.3
-0.1
0.7
-0.2

13719
6257
5146
4142
2959
0
0

5797
5048
6119
4129
3664
308
0

4778
5397
6419
4243
2624
102
0

3636
6940
6581
4750
2478
1461
0

2505
7313
6805
4957
3124
1934
1

2706
7939
6856
5512
3367
2091
1

2484
8024
6784
5987
3579
2339
1

2356
7976
6366
6379
3803
2600
2

2212
7677
6205
6652
3897
2602
2

-10.0
-1.5
2.2
0.2
-1.2

-6.3
3.1
0.6
1.6
1.8
34.2

-0.1
0.9
0.0
1.9
1.4
1.9
10.8

-1.2
-0.4
-0.9
1.1
0.9
1.1
0.5

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

207.5

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

158.4
67.0
2.3
46.9
21.6
13.2
7.5
18.3
30.8

104.2
48.0
1.6
27.6
9.9
9.3
7.8
13.5

454

1663

2370

2731

3210

3657

3810

150.8
117.9
64.0
2.2
24.5
8.1
6.7
12.4
12.4
20.5

149.5
86.5
118.5
64.2
2.4
21.6
6.9
5.6
17.8
11.3
19.7

140.1
77.7
110.9
60.4
1.9
16.9
6.9
5.5
19.3
10.2
19.0

137.7
73.1
109.0
55.7
1.9
17.9
7.0
5.3
21.2
11.0
17.7

135.1
71.9
106.7
54.5
1.8
16.8
6.9
5.1
21.7
11.5
16.9

125.0
63.4
96.5
46.0
1.7
15.8
6.4
4.9
21.7
11.9
16.6

117.9
58.1
89.4
40.8
1.7
15.0
6.3
4.8
20.9
12.0
16.5

72.7

72.0

67.5

66.4

65.1

60.2

56.8

18.0

3.1

1.7

-3.1

-0.7

-2.9
-0.4
-0.4
-6.3
-9.3
-6.5
5.1
-3.8
-4.0

-0.6
-0.6
-1.3
-3.6
-1.6
-1.9
4.5
-1.9
-0.8

-0.4
-0.8
-0.4
-1.0
-0.8
-0.1
0.0
-0.8
1.2
1.2
-1.2

-1.4
-2.1
-1.8
-2.9
-0.4
-1.2
-0.9
-0.6
-0.4
0.5
-0.2

Source: PRIMES

76

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Czech Republic: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

10.362
81.3
602.6
3.23
15.7

10.333
77.5
537.1
2.50
21.0

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

10.278
83.4
485.7
2.91
23.3

10.221
100.2
452.3
2.62
28.5

10.394
114.3
388.0
2.50
31.7

10.497
134.8
337.9
2.39
32.5

10.543
154.2
303.8
2.28
31.9

10.516
169.4
281.7
2.02
30.3

10.420
182.5
261.8
1.87
28.7

15.3
18.4

18.1
18.1

19.9
17.4

24.7
18.3

30.7
19.9

34.7
20.5

36.1
19.8

-0.1
0.3
-2.1
-1.0

0.1
3.2
-2.2
-1.5

0.1
3.0
-2.4
-0.9

-0.1
1.7
-1.5
-2.0

2.6

4.4

1.6

196.2
163.9
194.0
19.6
18.9

170.1
117.2
113.2
19.5
18.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
25.5
31.8

73.8
97.2
80.7
31.2
45.8

61.5
90.2
73.4
30.7
46.1

56.2
79.3
63.3
28.6
45.9

50.7
71.4
56.6
26.9
44.1

46.9
65.2
53.4
25.4
42.1

43.9
60.0
50.3
23.4
39.7

-6.5
-4.8
-6.4
2.6
5.4

-4.7
-1.0
-3.0
1.9
3.8

-1.9
-2.3
-2.6
-1.3
-0.4

-1.4
-1.7
-1.2
-1.4
-1.0

0.64
2.77
2.88
2.75
2.48
2.68

0.44
2.18
2.24
1.83
2.09
2.71

0.57
2.19
2.52
1.53
1.61
2.83

0.53
2.01
2.25
1.15
1.37
2.89

0.46
1.82
1.82
1.10
1.32
2.80

0.38
1.80
1.78
1.08
1.22
2.77

0.35
1.73
1.66
1.04
1.13
2.74

0.28
1.66
1.56
0.96
1.05
2.72

0.24
1.60
1.48
0.96
0.99
2.69

-1.0
-2.3
-1.3
-5.7
-4.2
0.6

-2.2
-1.8
-3.2
-3.3
-2.0
-0.1

-2.5
-0.5
-0.9
-0.6
-1.5
-0.2

-3.9
-0.7
-1.1
-0.8
-1.3
-0.2

1.8
0.2

6.1
0.2

8.4
3.9

9.0
5.1

10.3
6.6

11.6
7.4

12.1
8.2

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

72898
13588
52069
421
3893
1170
1758
0
0
0

81916
24724
48848
416
4714
814
2380
21
0
0

80425
26495
43057
203
6384
1606
2263
348
70
0

89581
29753
46004
264
7679
2690
2306
713
172
0

94634
34627
46070
205
6957
3109
2361
1077
228
0

103594
44076
44677
184
6900
3848
2390
1256
261
0

109713
48207
46059
157
6529
4638
2433
1418
273
0

1.0
6.9
-1.9
-7.0
5.1
3.2
2.6

1.6
2.7
0.7
0.1
0.9
6.8
0.4
12.0
12.6

1.5
3.4
0.0
-2.6
-0.6
4.1
0.3
2.8
1.8

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

13222
1706
948
947
1
0
0
10568
3510
0
9090
1207
129
143
0
0

15228
3621
1045
1016
29
0
0
10563
3621
0
8987
1300
133
143
0
0

14760
3636
1508
1045
364
99
0
9616
4092
0
7985
1333
136
162
0
0

17262
3651
1966
1053
734
179
0
11645
5306
0
9858
1324
271
191
0
0

18014
4259
2421
1065
1119
236
0
11334
5661
0
9502
1326
200
307
0
0

19298
5406
2664
1083
1310
271
0
11227
6008
439
9298
1324
173
431
0
0

20304
5908
2854
1088
1483
283
0
11542
6273
933
9522
1342
154
524
0
0

1.1
7.9
4.7
1.0
80.3

2.0
1.6
4.8
0.2
11.9
9.1

1.2
3.3
1.7
0.2
2.9
1.8

-0.9
1.5

1.7
3.3

0.2
1.0

-1.3
1.0
0.6
1.3

1.8
-0.1
3.9
6.6

0.0
0.1
-2.6
5.5

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

58.1

56.5

57.8

55.1

55.9

56.4

56.4

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

31.4
19.4
0.0
22.7
18.6
4.0

30.0
18.1
0.0
34.1
30.2
3.9

29.3
26.5
0.0
38.3
32.9
5.3

34.2
39.6
0.0
39.8
33.2
6.6

34.4
39.4
0.0
43.7
36.6
7.2

36.6
39.0
4.6
50.0
42.5
7.5

38.2
39.0
8.7
51.9
43.9
8.0

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

85.3
14.1
45.7
20.9
4.6
0.0

96.3
18.6
58.1
15.7
3.9
0.0

103.4
16.2
66.8
15.4
5.0
0.0

111.9
15.6
71.8
14.6
9.9
0.0

122.0
16.3
79.8
14.7
11.3
0.0

139.2
17.2
91.9
15.3
14.8
0.0

151.6
17.9
98.7
16.0
19.0
0.0

160.8
18.4
101.9
16.7
23.8
0.0

168.7
18.8
105.7
17.2
27.1
0.0

1.9
1.4
3.9
-3.0
0.7

1.7
0.1
1.8
-0.4
8.6

2.2
1.0
2.2
0.8
5.3

1.1
0.5
0.7
0.7
3.6

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

60.3
18.6
38.0
3.7

54.2
31.3
22.6
0.3

54.9
37.3
17.5
0.1

58.4
43.4
14.9
0.1

68.1
51.3
16.7
0.1

79.7
60.6
19.0
0.1

87.3
66.4
20.9
0.1

92.6
70.4
22.1
0.1

96.3
73.4
22.8
0.1

-0.9
7.2
-7.5
-31.8

2.2
3.2
-0.4
-1.0

2.5
2.6
2.2
1.8

1.0
1.0
0.9
0.5

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

2812
100
1351
768
272
174
147

2857
131
1518
783
200
185
40

4377
112
2249
1509
304
197
5

6164
107
2961
2476
272
344
5

6881
110
3172
2915
290
388
6

7645
114
3312
3412
312
488
6

7924
113
3315
3604
305
579
7

7976
111
3239
3655
295
669
7

7766
107
3058
3620
259
715
7

4.5
1.1
5.2
7.0
1.1
1.3
-28.6

4.6
-0.1
3.5
6.8
-0.5
7.0
1.2

1.4
0.3
0.4
2.1
0.5
4.1
1.7

-0.2
-0.6
-0.8
0.0
-1.6
2.1
0.4

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

77

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Denmark: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

10062
0
6093
2770
0
1199
2
1140
52
2
2

15593
0
9357
4702
0
1534
3
1423
101
5
2

27665
0
18189
7412
0
2065
3
1687
365
8
3

31280
0
18942
9383
0
2955
2
2371
569
10
3

25952
0
14670
8100
0
3182
2
2460
686
33
0

22971
0
12500
6980
0
3491
2
2526
888
75
0

19361
0
9500
6040
0
3821
2
2662
1034
122
0

17572
0
8500
4800
0
4272
2
2799
1280
190
0

15448
0
7500
3500
0
4448
2
2895
1322
229
0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

8621
6216
2727
2036
691
-928
606

7544
7664
1439
804
635
-1496
-68

-7259
3784
-8277
-9803
1526
-2882
57

-10433
3540
-9388
-11214
1826
-5010
118

-6143
3311
-6466
-7199
733
-3584
92

-3306
2906
-4421
-5096
675
-2670
118

501
2712
-1530
-2156
625
-1746
136

2152
2536
-678
-1233
555
-934
185

3994
2435
-77
-431
354
353
184

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

17893
6088
8181
1818
0
608
1199

20283
6498
9143
3170
0
-68
1540

19522
3987
8905
4449
0
57
2124

19702
3751
8171
4399
0
118
3262

19049
3311
7444
4516
0
92
3685

18879
2906
7294
4310
0
118
4251

19061
2712
7169
4294
0
136
4750

18904
2536
7002
3866
0
185
5315

18601
2435
6581
3853
0
184
5547

34.0
45.7
10.2
0.0
6.7

32.0
45.1
15.6
0.0
7.6

20.4
45.6
22.8
0.0
10.9

19.0
41.5
22.3
0.0
16.6

17.4
39.1
23.7
0.0
19.3

15.4
38.6
22.8
0.0
22.5

14.2
37.6
22.5
0.0
24.9

13.4
37.0
20.5
0.0
28.1

13.1
35.4
20.7
0.0
29.8

25733
3289

36648
4389

36043
3708

36348
3457

36656
3323

37969
3243

39018
3318

40545
3807

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

6016
5541
237
174
65
0
0

8423
6061
1008
975
378
0
0

7821
3667
1344
2112
699
0
0

7165
3444
344
2003
1374
0
0

6364
3102
69
1757
1436
0
0

6344
2709
62
1813
1759
0
0

6319
2520
58
1887
1854
0
0

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

9099
8048
0
1009
42

10781
9985
0
766
31

9008
8472
0
519
17

8362
7841
0
508
13

8395
7471
134
790
0

8229
7404
221
604
0

Energy Branch Consumption

733

1010

1157

1264

1246

Non-Energy Uses

299

298

298

285

263

13522

14750

14638

15457

2715
1078
1637
3954
2829
4024

3031
1125
1906
4474
2786
4460

2941
1149
1792
4158
2807
4732

396
7127
1159
2517
1758
566
0

405
7162
1691
2655
2242
595
0

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

10.6

-0.6

-2.9

-2.2

11.6
10.3

-2.1
0.9

-4.3
-2.9

-2.3
-5.3

5.6
1.1
4.0
21.4
12.9
1.9

4.4
-3.5
3.8
6.5
15.3
-36.1

1.8
2.4
0.8
4.2
13.9
1.0

1.5
-0.1
0.8
2.5
6.5
0.4

-4.8

-1.3

-2.0

23.1
-1.1

8.3

-7.1

-1.6

-5.5

-21.0

4.9

3.9

3.1

0.9
-4.1
0.9
9.4

-0.2
-1.8
-1.8
0.1

0.0
-2.0
-0.4
-0.5

-0.2
-1.1
-0.9
-1.1

-21.0
5.9

4.9
5.7

3.9
2.6

3.1
1.6

41859
3938

3.4
1.2

0.2
-1.1

0.6
0.0

0.7
1.7

6247
2347
75
1607
2219
0
0

6359
2237
33
1567
2522
0
0

2.7
-4.0
19.0
28.4
26.9

-2.0
-1.7
-25.7
-1.8
7.5

-0.1
-2.1
-1.7
0.7
2.6

0.1
-1.2
-5.5
-1.8
3.1

8340
7344
315
681
0

8257
7267
343
647
0

8035
7069
370
596
0

-0.1
0.5

-0.7
-1.2

-6.4
-8.4

4.3

-0.1
-0.2
8.9
-1.5

-0.4
-0.4
1.6
-1.3

1167

1135

1078

1031

4.7

0.7

-0.9

-1.0

277

287

301

317

0.0

-1.2

0.9

1.0

15064

15304

15469

15447

15214

0.8

0.3

0.3

-0.2

2866
1117
1749
4462
2861
5269

2612
979
1633
4520
2832
5100

2503
932
1572
4721
2870
5210

2527
936
1590
4781
2924
5238

2575
949
1626
4786
2990
5096

2621
961
1660
4779
3013
4802

0.8
0.6
0.9
0.5
-0.1
1.6

-1.2
-1.6
-0.9
0.8
0.1
0.8

-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
0.6
0.3
0.3

0.4
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.9

290
6979
1667
2791
2255
657
0

253
7234
1702
2877
2444
947
0

207
6613
1785
2895
2449
1114
0

196
6498
1752
3042
2665
1151
1

191
6365
1637
3143
2726
1407
1

187
6196
1553
3282
2821
1407
1

198
5849
1493
3385
2841
1447
1

-3.1
-0.2
3.7
1.0
2.5
1.5

-3.3
-0.5
0.7
0.4
0.8
5.4

-0.8
-0.4
-0.9
0.8
1.1
2.4
8.3

0.4
-0.8
-0.9
0.7
0.4
0.3
0.5

1812

2774

3131

3790

4282

4828

5068

5.6

3.2

1.7

69.4

59.8
25.1
44.6
17.4
2.4
4.1
3.6
2.4
14.7
2.1
13.1

57.1
23.3
42.1
15.5
2.3
3.6
3.6
2.4
14.8
2.2
12.8

56.0
23.3
41.0
15.1
2.2
3.5
3.2
2.4
14.6
2.2
12.8

53.8
22.1
38.8
13.9
2.0
3.5
2.9
2.4
14.1
2.3
12.7

52.0
21.3
37.0
13.3
1.9
3.4
2.8
2.5
13.1
2.3
12.7

0.0

-1.5

52.3
24.0
2.4
5.2
3.9
2.9
13.9
2.4
14.7

64.5
29.2
48.9
19.7
2.5
4.9
3.5
2.7
15.6
2.2
13.4

0.1
-0.2
4.9
-0.3
-2.3
-2.0
1.6
4.8
-1.0

-1.6
-3.2
0.3
-2.4
-0.7
-1.9
0.5
-1.3
-1.2

-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-1.4
-1.0
-1.5
-1.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.4
-0.2

-0.7
-0.9
-1.0
-1.3
-1.6
-0.2
-1.2
0.4
-1.1
0.4
-0.1

99.9

92.7

86.0

82.1

80.5

77.3

74.8

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

69.5
51.7
24.5
1.5
5.4
4.9
3.6
11.9
1.5
16.3
100.0

59.3
30.2
2.0
5.9
4.9
3.1
13.2
1.9

Source: PRIMES

78

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Denmark: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

5.135
150.8
118.7
2.89
45.7

5.216
169.2
119.8
2.92
34.5

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

5.330
194.8
100.2
2.68
-34.8

5.411
207.4
95.0
2.48
-50.8

5.512
209.0
91.2
2.34
-31.0

5.591
226.9
83.2
2.23
-16.8

5.661
245.9
77.5
2.15
2.5

5.736
268.3
70.5
2.05
10.9

5.808
289.6
64.2
1.99
20.5

16.9
8.7

18.2
8.8

18.6
8.9

21.1
9.3

24.5
10.0

26.8
10.0

27.8
9.6

0.4
2.6
-1.7
-0.7

0.3
0.7
-0.9
-1.3

0.3
1.6
-1.6
-0.9

0.3
1.7
-1.9
-0.8

1.0

2.8

1.3

105.2
114.7
127.4
36.5
69.2

105.9
115.7
113.7
37.6
66.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
38.1
66.6

91.7
96.2
97.5
41.0
74.5

84.4
100.0
94.1
39.7
74.0

75.8
97.2
86.7
36.8
73.5

71.6
91.3
81.3
35.5
70.4

66.9
84.2
76.1
32.4
66.9

63.6
77.4
70.9
28.7
61.9

-0.5
-1.4
-2.4
0.4
-0.4

-1.7
0.0
-0.6
0.4
1.1

-1.6
-0.9
-1.5
-1.1
-0.5

-1.2
-1.6
-1.4
-2.1
-1.3

0.48
1.91
1.98
1.24
1.27
2.96

0.43
1.84
1.95
1.09
1.12
2.95

0.35
1.77
1.77
0.94
1.04
2.95

0.27
1.73
1.70
0.79
0.94
2.96

0.24
1.65
1.57
0.80
0.85
2.88

0.20
1.59
1.43
0.76
0.82
2.84

0.19
1.53
1.39
0.67
0.82
2.78

0.17
1.49
1.37
0.61
0.81
2.76

0.16
1.43
1.31
0.59
0.83
2.72

-3.1
-0.7
-1.1
-2.8
-1.9
0.0

-3.7
-0.7
-1.2
-1.6
-2.0
-0.2

-2.2
-0.7
-1.2
-1.8
-0.4
-0.3

-1.7
-0.6
-0.5
-1.2
0.1
-0.2

11.7
0.1

16.9
0.2

19.6
3.5

23.4
5.7

26.3
8.3

29.8
9.5

31.5
11.1

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

36043
0
15757
4920
9246
1849
30
4240
0
0

36348
0
15052
1371
9308
3982
23
6613
0
0

36656
0
13764
317
9327
5239
21
7981
6
0

37969
0
12061
252
8954
6318
27
10321
36
0

39018
0
11159
232
9182
6334
27
12027
57
0

40545
0
9839
284
7690
7740
25
14887
78
0

41859
0
9636
133
7523
9063
26
15374
104
0

0.2

0.6

0.7

-1.3
-24.0
0.1
11.0
-3.5
6.5

-2.1
-3.1
-0.2
1.9
2.4
4.2
24.5

-1.5
-5.4
-2.0
3.6
-0.1
2.5
6.2

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

12431
0
2403
10
2392
1
0
10028
4488
0
6232
2092
1124
581
0
0

13128
0
3143
11
3129
3
0
9985
4691
0
5752
2257
1099
877
0
0

13199
0
3746
11
3719
16
0
9452
4692
0
5269
2227
1022
934
0
0

12853
0
4251
11
4202
38
0
8603
5044
0
4451
2232
982
937
0
0

12092
0
4811
11
4741
60
0
7281
4955
0
3503
2376
387
1015
0
0

12987
0
5783
11
5690
81
0
7204
5063
0
3466
2371
228
1138
0
0

13456
0
5983
11
5864
109
0
7473
5354
41
3459
2552
117
1345
0
0

0.6

-0.9

1.1

4.5
1.0
4.5
32.0

2.5
0.0
2.5
14.0

2.2
0.0
2.1
6.2

-0.6
0.4

-2.6
0.5

0.3
0.8

-1.7
0.6
-0.9
4.9

-4.0
0.6
-9.2
0.8

-0.1
0.7
-11.3
2.9

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

31.6

30.0

30.3

32.4

35.5

34.0

33.9

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

34.9
55.4
0.0
17.0
0.0
17.0

35.7
59.0
0.0
29.2
0.0
29.2

38.7
65.9
0.0
36.1
0.0
36.1

37.4
66.4
0.0
44.0
0.0
44.0

36.6
62.0
0.0
47.3
0.0
47.3

35.2
57.4
0.0
56.1
0.0
56.1

35.6
57.9
0.8
58.7
0.0
58.7

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

68.9
6.4
48.0
5.1
5.2
4.2

71.6
7.3
49.1
4.9
6.5
3.8

76.1
7.4
51.9
5.5
7.9
3.3

79.5
7.3
53.7
6.1
9.3
3.0

82.8
7.4
56.1
6.4
9.8
3.1

88.9
7.8
59.6
6.8
11.5
3.2

92.6
8.0
60.4
7.3
13.5
3.4

96.8
8.3
61.4
7.8
15.7
3.6

100.5
8.5
62.1
8.3
17.9
3.7

1.0
1.4
0.8
0.9
4.3
-2.5

0.8
0.0
0.8
1.4
2.2
-0.6

1.1
0.8
0.7
1.4
3.2
0.9

0.8
0.6
0.3
1.2
2.9
0.9

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

21.7
18.1
1.7
1.9

26.7
22.4
2.0
2.3

27.5
24.0
2.0
1.5

27.0
23.3
2.0
1.7

24.5
21.0
1.8
1.7

26.3
22.6
1.9
1.8

27.6
23.8
2.0
1.9

29.3
25.2
2.1
2.0

30.9
26.6
2.3
2.0

2.4
2.9
1.6
-2.4

-1.1
-1.3
-1.2
1.5

1.2
1.2
1.1
0.8

1.1
1.1
1.4
0.7

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4024
59
1627
1383
114
690
150

4460
74
1776
1636
118
675
182

4732
76
1882
1735
103
820
116

5269
75
2100
1908
107
943
136

5100
75
2098
1719
97
971
139

5210
77
1994
1836
100
1057
145

5238
76
1857
1852
95
1207
151

5096
74
1657
1868
90
1250
158

4802
71
1484
1858
55
1171
163

1.6
2.6
1.5
2.3
-1.0
1.7
-2.6

0.8
-0.1
1.1
-0.1
-0.6
1.7
1.9

0.3
0.1
-1.2
0.7
-0.3
2.2
0.8

-0.9
-0.6
-2.2
0.0
-5.3
-0.3
0.7

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

79

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Estonia: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

5500
5050
0
0
0
450
0
450
0
0
0

3354
2868
0
0
0
487
0
486
0
0
0

3186
2672
2
0
0
512
0
512
0
0
0

4210
3176
354
0
0
680
2
674
5
0
0

3307
2438
120
0
0
749
1
728
18
1
0

3838
2763
90
0
0
985
1
919
62
3
0

4108
2797
74
0
0
1237
2
1119
112
4
0

4124
2752
60
0
0
1312
2
1172
133
5
0

4179
2761
38
0
0
1379
2
1178
193
6
0

-5.3
-6.2

0.4
-0.9
51.3

2.2
1.4
-4.7

0.2
-0.1
-6.4

1.3

3.9
13.2
3.6
70.7

5.2
1.7
4.4
20.0
11.4
1.9

1.1
1.0
0.5
5.5
4.6
1.6

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

4470
697
3153
0
3153
1222
-602

1995
293
1185
0
1185
583
-65

1593
272
744
0
744
662
-80

1471
30
873
0
873
800
-138

1693
87
1088
1
1087
813
-150

1713
84
1259
1
1258
847
-223

1566
82
1287
1
1286
889
-296

1619
76
1324
1
1322
909
-300

1645
75
1298
1
1297
938
-300

-9.8
-9.0
-13.4

0.6
-10.7
3.9

-13.4
-5.9

3.9
2.1

-0.8
-0.6
1.7
1.1
1.7
0.9

0.5
-0.9
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.5

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

9919
5967
2872
1222
0
-602
460

5347
3310
1039
583
0
-65
481

4696
2974
627
662
0
-80
513

5559
3191
1118
800
0
-138
589

4873
2526
1082
813
0
-150
603

5415
2847
1211
847
0
-223
732

5531
2879
1218
889
0
-296
840

5592
2829
1233
909
0
-300
921

5665
2836
1178
938
0
-300
1014

-7.2
-6.7
-14.1
-5.9

0.4
-1.6
5.6
2.1

1.3
1.3
1.2
0.9

0.2
-0.2
-0.3
0.5

1.1

1.6

3.4

1.9

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

60.2
28.9
12.3
0.0
4.6

61.9
19.4
10.9
0.0
9.0

63.3
13.4
14.1
0.0
10.9

57.4
20.1
14.4
0.0
10.6

51.8
22.2
16.7
0.0
12.4

52.6
22.4
15.6
0.0
13.5

52.1
22.0
16.1
0.0
15.2

50.6
22.1
16.3
0.0
16.5

50.1
20.8
16.6
0.0
17.9

17178
2879

8691
2858

8511
2162

10203
2194

10687
2252

12759
2456

14281
2528

14871
2503

15578
2449

-6.8
-2.8

2.3
0.4

2.9
1.2

0.9
-0.3

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

5654
5085
210
357
2
0
0

2673
2491
80
100
2
0
0

2439
2200
12
226
2
0
0

2539
2294
10
227
8
0
0

2560
2367
0
167
25
0
0

2907
2661
2
168
77
0
0

2935
2657
3
146
128
0
0

2903
2597
2
139
164
0
0

2910
2600
2
116
192
0
0

-8.1
-8.0
-25.2
-4.5
-0.3

0.5
0.7

1.4
1.2

-2.9
28.5

-1.4
17.6

-0.1
-0.2
-2.9
-2.3
4.1

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

1906
1
0
1607
299

788
1
0
501
287

662
1
0
456
206

725
1
0
495
229

473
1
18
448
6

501
1
26
470
3

500
1
34
462
2

497
1
41
453
2

490
1
49
439
1

-10.0
0.0

-3.3
-0.1

-11.8
-3.7

-0.2
-30.2

0.6
1.1
6.4
0.3
-8.8

-0.2
0.0
3.6
-0.5
-4.2

Energy Branch Consumption

295

148

172

196

186

201

208

207

203

-5.3

0.8

1.1

-0.2

Non-Energy Uses

170

230

220

231

210

263

301

330

336

2.6

-0.4

3.6

1.1

6018

2496

2365

2783

2807

3098

3262

3391

3483

-8.9

1.7

1.5

0.7

2735
666
2069
1277
1166
841

787
429
358
966
252
492

529
200
328
928
329
579

645
192
453
889
479
769

695
189
505
880
443
789

844
220
624
913
496
845

927
237
691
935
518
882

995
245
750
944
537
914

1068
252
816
939
545
931

-15.2
-11.3
-16.8
-3.1
-11.9
-3.7

2.8
-0.5
4.4
-0.5
3.0
3.1

2.9
2.2
3.2
0.6
1.6
1.1

1.4
0.6
1.7
0.0
0.5
0.5

703
1808
439
585
2086
397
0

193
858
202
386
593
265
0

117
750
134
427
511
425
0

98
965
207
518
547
447
0

101
977
230
546
518
436
0

132
1062
254
636
574
440
0

166
1069
291
688
602
445
0

179
1085
298
738
622
468
0

177
1052
322
803
631
496
0

-16.4
-8.4
-11.2
-3.1
-13.1
0.7

-1.5
2.7
5.5
2.5
0.1
0.3

5.1
0.9
2.4
2.3
1.5
0.2
11.0

0.7
-0.2
1.0
1.6
0.5
1.1
3.0

Annual % Change

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.3

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

43.7
37.1
27.3
0.4
4.6
1.2
1.2
2.4
0.9
5.6
100.0

16.0
12.1
0.0
1.7
0.5
0.3
1.4
0.6

426

548

577

696

781

860

951

17.6
13.9
10.7
0.1
0.8
0.3
0.3
1.7
0.6
3.1

18.4
12.5
15.0
11.1
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.5
2.3
0.6
2.8

18.2
12.3
15.1
11.1
0.1
1.0
0.2
0.4
2.3
0.6
2.5

20.0
13.8
16.8
12.3
0.1
1.3
0.2
0.4
2.4
0.7
2.5

20.4
13.9
17.0
12.3
0.1
1.4
0.2
0.5
2.5
0.8
2.5

20.3
13.7
16.8
12.0
0.1
1.5
0.2
0.5
2.6
0.9
2.5

20.3
13.8
16.7
11.9
0.1
1.5
0.2
0.5
2.5
1.0
2.5

40.2

42.2

41.7

45.8

46.6

46.4

46.4

3.1

3.1

2.0

-8.7

0.4

-9.4
-8.9
-11.7
-16.1
-13.5
-14.1
-3.6
-4.7
-5.7

0.9
0.3
0.9
2.1
-3.1
4.8
3.0
-0.3
-2.0

1.1
1.2
1.2
1.0
0.4
4.0
-1.1
0.6
1.0
3.7
0.1

0.0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-1.2
0.1
-0.6
0.6
0.1
1.9
0.0

Source: PRIMES

80

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Estonia: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

1.571
8.3
1196.0
3.74
44.3

1.448
5.7
943.4
2.99
36.7

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

1.372
7.6
618.0
2.96
33.2

1.348
11.1
501.2
2.70
25.9

1.333
11.2
435.5
3.10
33.9

1.323
13.5
402.5
3.11
30.9

1.311
15.4
358.3
3.07
27.6

1.292
17.4
322.3
3.00
28.2

1.267
19.4
292.2
2.95
28.2

1.3
16.7

1.8
16.2

2.0
17.8

2.4
18.0

3.0
19.3

3.4
19.8

3.6
18.7

-1.3
-0.9
-6.4
-2.3

-0.3
3.9
-3.4
0.5

-0.2
3.3
-1.9
-0.1

-0.3
2.3
-2.0
-0.4

4.6

4.1

2.0

319.4
136.3
402.7
37.6
40.4

219.8
146.4
106.6
42.8
26.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
33.8
19.1

69.4
60.7
104.0
32.2
19.0

62.6
69.8
106.8
31.5
22.4

59.1
63.0
95.0
29.4
22.2

56.2
58.4
86.6
28.5
22.1

53.1
54.4
79.6
27.4
22.1

50.4
49.5
71.9
25.8
21.7

-11.0
-3.1
-13.0
-1.1
-7.2

-4.6
-3.5
0.7
-0.7
1.6

-1.1
-1.8
-2.1
-1.0
-0.1

-1.1
-1.6
-1.8
-1.0
-0.2

0.64
1.56
1.66
0.93
1.05
2.89

0.70
1.55
2.18
0.48
1.00
2.90

0.67
1.28
1.50
0.30
0.82
2.92

0.62
1.36
1.27
0.25
0.98
2.95

0.62
1.38
1.40
0.23
0.96
2.89

0.59
1.40
1.52
0.19
0.90
2.87

0.54
1.41
1.55
0.20
0.88
2.84

0.51
1.39
1.48
0.18
0.90
2.82

0.50
1.34
1.37
0.18
0.89
2.73

0.5
-2.0
-1.1
-10.6
-2.5
0.1

-0.9
0.8
-0.7
-2.6
1.7
-0.1

-1.3
0.2
1.1
-1.7
-0.9
-0.2

-0.9
-0.5
-1.3
-0.7
0.1
-0.4

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

16.0
0.0

17.9
0.0

18.7
2.5

20.4
3.4

21.9
4.4

23.3
5.3

25.2
7.0

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

8511
0
7604
37
859
6
5
1
0
0

10203
0
9261
32
809
25
22
54
0
0

10687
0
9764
0
576
118
17
210
1
0

12759
0
10811
7
890
314
17
717
2
0

14281
0
11544
13
840
554
20
1307
2
0

14871
0
11744
11
813
735
22
1543
3
0

15578
0
11755
10
697
847
22
2242
5
0

2.3

2.9

0.9

2.5

1.7

-3.9
34.7
13.2
70.7

3.8
16.7
1.7
20.0
11.1

0.2
-2.9
-1.9
4.3
1.0
5.5
8.6

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

2575
0
3
2
1
0
0
2572
486
0
2348
205
12
7
0
0

2293
0
36
5
31
0
0
2257
345
0
2023
205
12
16
0
0

2428
0
115
5
108
2
0
2313
394
0
2056
206
13
39
0
0

2777
0
400
5
393
2
0
2378
357
0
1926
390
13
49
0
0

3107
0
643
6
635
2
0
2464
434
0
2105
287
3
69
0
0

3361
0
756
6
747
3
0
2605
476
0
2092
429
3
81
0
0

3690
0
1001
6
990
6
0
2689
497
0
2092
491
2
104
0
0

-0.6

2.5

1.7

45.2
9.6
64.2

18.8
1.3
19.4
2.1

4.5
0.0
4.5
8.6

-1.1
-2.1

0.6
1.0

0.9
1.4

-1.3
0.0
0.1
19.5

0.2
3.4
-14.4
5.7

-0.1
5.5
-3.5
4.2

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

33.7

45.4

44.8

47.1

47.3

45.7

43.8

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

30.0
11.7
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.1

34.3
11.0
0.0
1.0
0.0
1.0

35.1
16.4
0.0
3.2
0.0
3.2

35.6
15.7
0.0
8.2
0.0
8.2

38.0
19.8
0.0
13.2
0.0
13.2

39.4
20.6
0.0
15.5
0.0
15.5

39.3
21.1
0.0
20.0
0.0
20.0

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

10.0
4.5
3.1
1.6
0.4
0.4

8.1
2.0
5.2
0.5
0.1
0.2

10.3
2.6
6.8
0.4
0.2
0.4

14.2
2.7
10.0
0.3
0.7
0.4

14.4
2.7
10.1
0.4
0.8
0.4

15.5
2.7
11.0
0.4
1.1
0.4

16.1
2.8
11.1
0.4
1.5
0.4

16.8
2.8
11.1
0.4
2.0
0.4

17.4
2.9
11.2
0.4
2.5
0.4

0.3
-5.1
8.0
-13.8
-6.7
-1.6

3.4
0.1
4.1
-0.2
16.8
-0.3

1.2
0.3
0.9
1.0
6.0
0.6

0.8
0.4
0.1
0.4
5.3
0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

11.5
4.5
7.0
0.0

5.4
1.5
3.8
0.0

12.0
3.9
8.1
0.0

16.5
5.8
10.6
0.0

15.1
6.6
8.5
0.0

17.4
7.6
9.8
0.0

19.1
8.4
10.7
0.0

20.6
9.2
11.4
0.0

22.2
10.2
12.0
0.0

0.5
-1.4
1.5

2.3
5.2
0.5

2.4
2.5
2.3

1.5
2.0
1.2

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

841
59
267
407
66
36
7

492
13
308
104
45
18
4

579
15
305
180
52
20
7

769
16
385
266
49
42
11

789
16
375
299
39
49
11

845
16
368
345
44
61
12

882
15
356
378
45
76
12

914
15
340
409
46
93
12

931
14
310
440
43
112
12

-3.7
-12.5
1.4
-7.8
-2.4
-5.9
0.0

3.1
0.2
2.1
5.2
-2.8
9.6
4.9

1.1
-0.3
-0.5
2.4
1.5
4.5
0.6

0.5
-0.6
-1.4
1.5
-0.5
3.9
0.2

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

81

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Finland: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

11860
1581
0
0
5006
5273
934
4338
0
0
0

13166
2061
15
0
4957
6133
1111
5021
1
0
0

14991
1207
37
0
5799
7949
1261
6681
7
1
0

16468
2129
205
0
6003
8131
1185
6930
15
1
0

16007
1759
0
0
5997
8251
1136
7062
45
8
0

19233
1519
0
0
9131
8583
1129
7350
84
21
0

20368
1490
0
0
9842
9036
1134
7649
218
35
0

21268
1342
0
0
10694
9232
1160
7674
343
54
0

21385
1274
0
0
10694
9417
1179
7814
370
53
0

2.4
-2.7

0.7
3.8

2.4
-1.7

0.5
-1.5

1.5
4.2
3.0
4.4
3.8

0.3
0.4
-1.0
0.6
21.0
30.6

5.1
0.9
0.0
0.8
17.0
16.1
2.3

0.8
0.4
0.4
0.2
5.4
4.1
-0.2

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

18124
4378
10570
8930
1639
2261
915

15650
3774
8314
8579
-265
2839
723

18587
3533
10610
12164
-1553
3422
1021

19306
3338
10985
11068
-84
3598
1463

18762
4052
9370
10453
-1083
4177
1088

18197
3325
9612
10710
-1098
4076
860

17603
3464
8919
10052
-1133
3982
662

17291
3321
8586
9733
-1147
4008
559

16620
3210
8155
9319
-1163
3889
539

0.3
-2.1
0.0
3.1

0.1
1.4
-1.2
-1.5

-0.6
-1.6
-0.5
-0.4

-0.6
-0.8
-0.9
-0.8

4.2
1.1

2.0
0.6

-0.5
-4.8

-0.2
-2.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

29046
5327
10029
2261
5006
915
5508

29070
5950
8455
2839
4957
723
6146

32544
5087
9266
3422
5799
1021
7949

34666
4925
10625
3598
6003
1463
8053

34297
5811
8898
4177
5997
1088
8326

36951
4844
9132
4076
9131
860
8907

37489
4953
8437
3982
9842
662
9612

38068
4663
8095
4008
10694
559
10049

37501
4484
7652
3889
10694
539
10242

1.1
-0.5
-0.8
4.2
1.5
1.1
3.7

0.5
1.3
-0.4
2.0
0.3
0.6
0.5

0.9
-1.6
-0.5
-0.5
5.1
-4.8
1.4

0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-0.2
0.8
-2.0
0.6

18.3
34.5
7.8
17.2
19.0

20.5
29.1
9.8
17.1
21.1

15.6
28.5
10.5
17.8
24.4

14.2
30.7
10.4
17.3
23.2

16.9
25.9
12.2
17.5
24.3

13.1
24.7
11.0
24.7
24.1

13.2
22.5
10.6
26.3
25.6

12.2
21.3
10.5
28.1
26.4

12.0
20.4
10.4
28.5
27.3

54367
5546

64052
6510

69976
5543

70540
5756

79419
6331

89020
7300

93924
7565

99027
9045

99538
9665

2.6
0.0

1.3
1.3

1.7
1.8

0.6
2.5

5451
3216
294
1015
926
0
0

6714
3882
256
1581
996
0
0

6923
3168
131
2106
1518
0
0

7538
2974
107
2384
2073
0
0

10548
4461
221
2949
2917
0
0

8676
3449
162
2003
3062
0
0

8785
3564
123
1834
3264
0
0

8320
3088
114
1834
3284
0
0

8134
2661
91
1845
3537
0
0

2.4
-0.1
-7.8
7.6
5.1

4.3
3.5
5.4
3.4
6.8

-1.8
-2.2
-5.7
-4.6
1.1

-0.8
-2.9
-3.0
0.1
0.8

12101
10735
0
573
793

14065
12067
0
548
1451

15357
13249
0
803
1306

15526
13248
0
954
1325

13043
10855
70
1134
984

13929
11140
164
1676
948

13450
10481
221
1794
955

13190
10160
258
1849
923

12672
9739
286
1733
914

2.4
2.1

-1.6
-2.0

3.4
5.1

3.5
-2.8

0.3
-0.4
12.2
4.7
-0.3

-0.6
-0.7
2.6
-0.3
-0.4
0.7

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

776

959

1281

1263

1221

1261

1226

1296

1311

5.1

-0.5

0.0

1492

1203

946

1149

1092

1156

1161

1157

1170

-4.4

1.4

0.6

0.1

21758

22069

24176

25157

24640

25582

25614

25507

25126

1.1

0.2

0.4

-0.2

9620
7353
2268
5333
2483
4321

9989
7629
2360
5430
2487
4162

12046
9446
2599
4541
3132
4457

11999
9070
2929
4849
3478
4831

11283
8204
3079
5069
3566
4721

11781
8256
3525
5180
3861
4760

11929
8271
3658
5167
3838
4680

11994
8207
3787
5091
3880
4543

12001
8143
3858
5021
3777
4326

2.3
2.5
1.4
-1.6
2.3
0.3

-0.7
-1.4
1.7
1.1
1.3
0.6

0.6
0.1
1.7
0.2
0.7
-0.1

0.1
-0.2
0.5
-0.3
-0.2
-0.8

1621
8131
1501
5068
1915
3522
0

1277
7591
1523
5608
2126
3944
0

1099
7535
1328
6487
2780
4946
0

966
7920
1156
6959
3597
4559
0

734
6724
879
7300
5101
3902
0

787
6916
1354
7813
4458
4254
1

791
6327
1357
8017
4547
4575
1

998
6022
1387
8227
4053
4820
1

1263
5704
1244
8201
3971
4742
1

-3.8
-0.8
-1.2
2.5
3.8
3.5

-4.0
-1.1
-4.0
1.2
6.3
-2.3

0.8
-0.6
4.4
0.9
-1.1
1.6
7.9

4.8
-1.0
-0.9
0.2
-1.3
0.4
-0.3

7256

7401

7822

8370

9039

9360

9571

70.1
53.7
20.2
2.6
12.5
2.4
3.0
13.1
3.8
12.6

70.3
37.5
54.1
20.5
2.5
11.8
2.1
3.0
14.2
3.9
12.3

71.6
40.7
55.9
28.2
2.1
7.2
2.1
2.7
13.7
3.6
12.1

66.8
35.8
52.4
22.9
1.9
9.0
2.4
2.7
13.5
3.8
10.7

64.9
35.5
50.5
23.0
1.7
8.1
2.2
2.4
13.1
3.8
10.6

61.8
33.0
47.6
20.4
1.5
8.6
2.1
2.4
12.6
3.9
10.3

56.8
28.7
42.7
15.8
1.5
9.3
2.1
2.2
11.9
3.9
10.2

97.1

97.4

99.2

92.5

89.8

85.6

78.7

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

72.2
54.4
17.8
1.4
14.0
6.5
2.1
12.7
3.7
14.2
100.0

55.6
21.8
1.6
12.3
5.9
1.8
12.2
3.3

0.8

1.5

0.6

-0.3

0.2

-0.1
1.3
6.6
-1.2
-9.6
3.8
0.3
0.4
-1.2

0.4
3.4
-2.3
-5.4
-1.2
-1.2
0.4
-0.6
-0.4

-1.0
-1.4
-1.0
-2.0
-1.7
1.3
0.3
-1.3
-0.4
0.7
-1.4

-1.3
-2.1
-1.6
-3.7
-1.6
1.4
-0.3
-0.5
-1.0
0.2
-0.4

Source: PRIMES

82

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Finland: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

4.974
114.0
254.9
1.87
61.2

5.099
109.7
265.0
1.91
53.2

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

5.171
138.8
234.5
1.65
56.0

5.237
157.1
220.7
1.56
54.9

5.337
165.5
207.2
1.63
54.0

5.429
183.9
200.9
1.42
48.6

5.501
201.4
186.1
1.35
46.4

5.549
217.3
175.2
1.25
44.8

5.569
233.5
160.6
1.14
43.7

15.2
10.9

17.9
11.4

19.3
11.7

22.1
12.0

25.8
12.8

27.8
12.8

28.9
12.4

0.4
2.0
-0.8
-1.3

0.3
1.8
-1.2
-0.1

0.3
2.0
-1.1
-1.9

0.1
1.5
-1.5
-1.7

2.5

2.9

1.1

134.0
132.1
94.6
35.9
46.0

126.6
141.3
96.3
35.5
45.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
35.5
38.2

82.1
91.2
101.6
37.8
36.9

73.6
93.9
99.0
36.6
35.8

67.9
87.8
95.7
33.8
35.5

63.2
80.8
86.5
31.6
34.0

59.7
74.2
80.5
29.3
32.5

56.8
67.7
72.4
26.6
30.5

-2.9
-2.7
0.6
-0.1
-1.8

-3.0
-0.6
-0.1
0.3
-0.7

-1.5
-1.5
-1.3
-1.5
-0.5

-1.1
-1.8
-1.8
-1.7
-1.1

0.23
1.62
1.46
1.21
0.84
2.94

0.24
1.46
1.24
1.09
0.70
2.93

0.19
1.28
1.03
0.52
0.97
2.94

0.18
1.24
0.98
0.43
0.87
2.94

0.20
1.04
0.63
0.41
0.75
2.90

0.16
1.08
0.76
0.46
0.69
2.84

0.15
1.00
0.68
0.42
0.61
2.80

0.13
1.01
0.72
0.42
0.61
2.77

0.10
1.02
0.78
0.42
0.59
2.74

-1.6
-2.3
-3.4
-8.1
1.4
0.0

0.2
-2.1
-4.8
-2.2
-2.5
-0.2

-2.6
-0.3
0.7
0.1
-2.0
-0.3

-3.6
0.1
1.3
0.0
-0.3
-0.2

29.2
0.3

28.5
0.4

30.7
2.1

31.6
4.4

34.0
6.0

35.2
7.3

36.5
8.8

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

69976
22475
14241
554
10676
7292
14657
78
2
0

70540
23267
11925
431
11917
9047
13782
170
3
0

79419
23248
14594
910
13988
12941
13206
525
7
0

89020
36244
12603
849
10753
14431
13124
972
44
0

93924
39213
13089
602
10142
15088
13185
2530
75
0

99027
42874
12210
433
10447
15479
13493
3986
104
0

99538
42874
11591
325
10074
16529
13715
4299
131
0

1.3
0.3
0.2
5.1
2.7
5.9
-1.0
21.0
13.8

1.7
5.4
-1.1
-4.0
-3.2
1.5
0.0
17.0
26.2

0.6
0.9
-1.2
-6.0
-0.1
0.9
0.4
5.4
5.8

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

16630
2687
2882
2841
38
3
0
11060
5965
0
5562
3042
898
1558
0
0

17045
2690
3080
2994
82
4
0
11275
6033
0
5607
3007
897
1763
0
0

17583
2691
3291
2994
289
8
0
11601
6818
0
5626
3074
899
2002
0
0

20254
4207
3526
3014
466
46
0
12520
6287
0
5386
4201
494
2440
0
0

20856
4550
4163
3050
1036
78
0
12143
6199
0
5104
4172
436
2431
0
0

20935
4973
4760
3091
1561
108
0
11202
5974
85
3361
4769
399
2673
0
0

22066
4973
4943
3106
1701
136
0
12150
5610
443
3223
4505
176
4247
0
0

0.6
0.0
1.3
0.5
22.5
10.5

1.7
5.4
2.4
0.2
13.6
25.3

0.6
0.9
1.7
0.2
5.1
5.8

0.5
1.3

0.5
-0.9

0.0
-1.0

0.1
0.1
0.0
2.5

-1.0
3.1
-7.0
2.0

-4.5
0.8
-8.7
5.7

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

46.1

45.4

49.5

48.0

49.3

51.1

48.4

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

40.7
38.3
0.0
63.6
32.1
31.5

38.0
41.0
0.0
65.6
33.0
32.6

34.6
40.4
0.0
62.9
29.3
33.6

38.3
36.0
0.0
72.8
40.7
32.1

38.1
33.9
0.0
74.6
41.7
32.9

39.9
31.5
0.9
76.7
43.3
33.4

40.7
31.4
4.6
77.9
43.1
34.8

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

74.6
8.5
52.0
3.7
6.1
4.3

72.8
8.0
50.9
3.6
5.8
4.5

80.0
7.7
56.6
3.9
7.7
4.2

87.0
7.5
62.8
4.0
8.8
3.8

89.5
7.6
64.5
4.3
9.1
3.9

96.3
7.7
69.0
4.7
10.9
4.0

100.8
7.9
71.0
5.0
12.7
4.1

104.2
8.1
72.0
5.3
14.7
4.1

107.1
8.3
72.3
5.5
16.9
4.2

0.7
-1.0
0.9
0.6
2.4
-0.4

1.1
-0.2
1.3
1.0
1.8
-0.6

1.2
0.4
1.0
1.5
3.4
0.4

0.6
0.4
0.2
0.9
2.9
0.1

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

35.8
26.3
8.4
1.1

34.5
24.5
9.6
0.4

42.4
32.0
10.1
0.3

41.8
31.9
9.7
0.2

40.4
29.7
10.4
0.2

42.4
31.2
11.0
0.2

44.0
32.3
11.4
0.2

46.0
34.1
11.7
0.2

48.3
36.2
11.9
0.2

1.7
2.0
1.9
-12.2

-0.5
-0.7
0.3
-4.3

0.9
0.8
0.9
1.3

0.9
1.1
0.4
0.9

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

4321
78
2023
1546
100
459
116

4162
72
1967
1479
102
408
134

4457
69
2089
1529
94
505
170

4831
66
2459
1448
97
565
196

4721
66
2427
1349
101
577
202

4760
65
2326
1405
105
653
207

4680
64
2208
1399
99
701
209

4543
62
2025
1405
92
751
209

4326
59
1785
1412
66
795
209

0.3
-1.3
0.3
-0.1
-0.6
1.0
3.9

0.6
-0.4
1.5
-1.2
0.7
1.3
1.7

-0.1
-0.3
-0.9
0.4
-0.2
2.0
0.4

-0.8
-0.7
-2.1
0.1
-3.9
1.3
0.0

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

83

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

France: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

111013
7625
3514
2516
81018
16339
4635
11575
0
19
110

127609
5359
3509
2793
97308
18641
6322
12171
0
15
132

131920
2267
2897
1505
107093
18160
5822
12181
7
26
124

136736
383
1479
909
116474
17492
4496
12761
83
22
130

135007
340
0
0
114683
19985
4900
13728
977
223
157

140027
216
0
0
117571
22241
4921
14930
1708
524
159

148122
17
0
0
121548
26557
4932
16664
3858
917
185

152420
17
0
0
122404
29998
5129
17931
5407
1328
201

156164
11
0
0
122823
33330
5202
18082
6302
1746
1999

1.7
-11.4
-1.9
-5.0
2.8
1.1
2.3
0.5

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

120596
13004
87127
76561
10566
24371
-3907

116805
9010
86307
79689
6619
27493
-6005

134196
13201
91185
85250
5936
35778
-5974

144346
13504
95364
85529
9835
40720
-5187

138158
11257
90001
84073
5929
42076
-5040

136732
11758
87082
82744
4338
43459
-5296

130088
9201
83257
80974
2283
43200
-5323

123044
7405
79492
79144
348
40424
-4064

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

227754
19955
88316
26032
81018
-3907
16339

241418
15287
86611
29577
97308
-6005
18641

259828
15240
89539
35766
107093
-5975
18165

277086
14296
92991
41077
116474
-5188
17436

270384
11597
87220
42076
114683
-5040
19849

273850
11974
84173
43459
117571
-5296
21969

275266
9218
80314
43200
121548
-5323
26311

8.8
38.8
11.4
35.6
7.2

6.3
35.9
12.3
40.3
7.7

5.9
34.5
13.8
41.2
7.0

5.2
33.6
14.8
42.0
6.3

4.3
32.3
15.6
42.4
7.3

4.4
30.7
15.9
42.9
8.0

416667
61718

490848
69726

535963
72429

571367
80428

567236
59121

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

10983
7334
1920
1423
306
0
0

8553
5441
605
1216
1290
0
0

13122
6231
1284
4062
1545
0
0

16669
6404
1952
6288
2024
0
0

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

90122
80205
0
1019
8898

91635
83811
155
588
7081

98266
90956
328
312
6669

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Energy Branch Consumption


Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

0.2
-17.3

0.9
-25.8

0.5
-4.3

2.8
1.2

0.7
1.0
-1.7
1.2
64.8
24.1
2.4

0.6
2.9
0.1
2.0
14.7
15.2
1.7

0.1
2.3
0.5
0.8
5.0
6.7
26.8

118195
6749
75281
77026
-1745
39711
-3421

1.1
0.2
0.5
1.1
-5.6
3.9

0.3
-1.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
1.6

-0.6
-2.0
-0.8
-0.4
-9.1
0.3

-1.0
-3.1
-1.0
-0.5

272455
7423
76484
40424
122404
-4064
29785

271259
6760
72182
39711
122823
-3421
33204

1.3
-2.7
0.1
3.2
2.8

0.4
-2.7
-0.3
1.6
0.7

0.2
-2.3
-0.8
0.3
0.6

-0.1
-3.1
-1.1
-0.8
0.1

1.1

0.9

2.9

2.4

3.3
29.2
15.7
44.2
9.6

2.7
28.1
14.8
44.9
10.9

2.5
26.6
14.6
45.3
12.2

604841
64442

637952
67739

657224
73903

678309
78750

2.5
1.6

0.6
-2.0

1.2
1.4

0.6
1.5

14124
5206
166
6179
2563
9
0

16455
5820
289
7080
3255
11
0

14337
3133
169
6894
4129
11
0

12390
1416
690
5900
4373
11
0

14326
1414
686
5796
4611
1819
0

1.8
-1.6
-3.9
11.1
17.6

0.7
-1.8
-18.5
4.3
5.2

0.1
-5.0
0.2
1.1
4.9
2.3

0.0
-7.6
15.0
-1.7
1.1
66.2

95011
88526
408
239
5838

91832
85607
1697
180
4348

91263
84177
2450
265
4371

89852
82258
3014
266
4314

88218
80367
3384
215
4252

86007
78216
3528
264
3999

0.9
1.3
-11.1
-2.8

-0.7
-0.6
17.9
-5.4
-4.2

-0.2
-0.4
5.9
4.0
-0.1

-0.4
-0.5
1.6
-0.1
-0.8

-0.8

9413

10501

10829

10252

10269

9225

9120

9115

8976

1.4

-0.5

-1.2

-0.2

13454

16838

15903

16133

15056

14786

14520

14305

14256

1.7

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

137226

142756

152708

157515

156469

158685

159637

158626

156219

1.1

0.2

0.2

-0.2

36439
23706
12733
37053
21698
42037

37119
21472
15647
37201
24144
44292

36887
22331
14556
42587
21648
51586

34001
20150
13850
45295
28279
49941

33351
18715
14635
45204
28584
49329

33868
18382
15486
45865
29540
49412

34344
18120
16224
46002
30039
49252

34838
17878
16959
45863
30105
47820

35618
17727
17891
45487
30160
44954

0.1
-0.6
1.3
1.4
0.0
2.1

-1.0
-1.8
0.1
0.6
2.8
-0.4

0.3
-0.3
1.0
0.2
0.5
0.0

0.4
-0.2
1.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.9

9017
67695
23400
25960
774
10380
0

6905
68410
27098
29456
447
10439
0

5775
72242
30880
33096
237
10478
0

5148
71510
33744
36337
182
10594
0

4346
68725
34726
36269
1282
11118
3

4063
66564
34674
39910
1797
11671
6

4036
64077
33867
42456
2408
12786
8

3994
60695
31651
44853
3389
14036
8

3430
56898
30867
46928
4021
14068
7

-4.4
0.7
2.8
2.5
-11.1
0.1

-2.8
-0.5
1.2
0.9
18.4
0.6

-0.7
-0.7
-0.3
1.6
6.5
1.4
8.3

-1.6
-1.2
-0.9
1.0
5.3
1.0
-0.5

16831

17055

19499

21403

25357

28789

30637

1.5

2.7

1.9

553.9

511.0
130.4
356.6
36.6
13.5
54.8
66.5
45.0
140.1
25.2
129.3

501.9
132.2
353.4
41.9
12.8
53.8
64.0
42.9
138.0
25.3
123.2

476.9
120.3
331.7
30.7
12.0
52.3
60.2
40.9
135.7
25.4
119.7

453.4
110.2
307.6
23.1
11.2
48.1
56.9
38.3
130.0
25.6
120.3

431.2
101.4
285.5
17.7
10.2
46.5
53.7
36.7
120.6
25.5
120.2

0.0

-0.8

372.9
39.7
19.1
69.7
61.7
32.2
150.6
26.7
154.3

541.3
158.7
379.9
47.4
16.1
60.7
65.2
44.7
145.8
26.7
134.7

0.6
-0.1
1.3
-1.2
1.1
-2.0
2.1
-1.9
-0.9

-0.4
-0.8
-3.4
-2.4
0.8
3.4
-0.7
-0.6
-1.8

-0.7
-0.8
-0.7
-1.7
-1.2
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-0.3
0.1
-0.8

-1.0
-1.7
-1.5
-5.3
-1.6
-1.2
-1.1
-1.1
-1.2
0.0
0.0

99.8

97.6

92.1

90.5

86.0

81.7

77.7

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

554.8

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

352.9
40.1
16.8
78.7
55.4
39.4
122.5
32.4
169.5

344.8
27.6
18.7
75.7
52.4
41.0
129.5
28.5

Source: PRIMES

84

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

France: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

56.577
1302.7
174.8
1.55
52.4

57.753
1384.7
174.4
1.43
47.9

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

58.850
1589.7
163.4
1.44
51.1

60.825
1726.1
160.5
1.37
51.6

62.583
1759.1
153.7
1.32
50.6

64.203
1945.7
140.7
1.29
49.4

65.607
2144.4
128.4
1.21
46.8

66.846
2342.0
116.3
1.13
44.7

67.982
2550.1
106.4
1.05
43.1

144.7
9.1

160.1
9.3

165.4
9.4

186.8
9.6

221.2
10.3

243.6
10.4

249.5
9.8

0.4
2.0
-0.7
-0.8

0.6
1.0
-0.6
-0.8

0.5
2.0
-1.8
-0.9

0.4
1.7
-1.9
-1.3

1.3

3.0

1.2

128.3
103.2
124.1
40.1
51.9

120.9
99.3
128.9
40.6
47.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
45.2
38.9

86.6
94.4
120.2
42.7
39.0

85.1
94.9
117.8
40.9
38.9

79.8
87.5
109.5
37.1
38.6

74.0
80.8
100.8
34.8
37.9

68.8
75.0
92.3
31.2
37.4

64.8
69.1
84.8
26.7
35.9

-2.5
-0.3
-2.1
1.2
-2.9

-1.6
-0.5
1.7
-1.0
0.0

-1.4
-1.6
-1.5
-1.6
-0.3

-1.3
-1.6
-1.7
-2.6
-0.5

0.09
2.16
2.16
1.50
1.82
2.91

0.06
2.09
2.04
1.41
1.70
2.92

0.07
2.06
1.89
1.45
1.49
2.92

0.08
2.01
1.78
1.44
1.58
2.92

0.06
1.96
1.64
1.47
1.58
2.84

0.07
1.88
1.59
1.40
1.45
2.79

0.05
1.81
1.52
1.31
1.36
2.76

0.03
1.72
1.38
1.24
1.27
2.72

0.02
1.65
1.31
1.18
1.22
2.68

-2.4
-0.5
-1.3
-0.3
-2.0
0.0

-1.8
-0.5
-1.4
0.2
0.6
-0.3

-3.1
-0.8
-0.8
-1.2
-1.4
-0.3

-6.1
-0.9
-1.5
-1.0
-1.1
-0.3

10.7
1.1

10.4
1.3

12.1
4.4

13.0
6.2

15.3
7.8

17.4
9.1

18.8
10.2

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

535963
415087
27802
5664
16069
3561
67698
77
5
0

571367
451448
28623
7913
25269
4865
52277
963
10
0

567236
444587
21926
850
24120
6274
56979
11361
666
473

604841
455783
24563
1065
34126
9245
57217
19859
2509
476

637952
472075
13377
502
32224
11855
57354
44865
4934
765

657224
482429
6102
2414
24421
10287
59645
62877
7668
1380

678309
484259
7601
1914
24074
11369
60485
73275
11173
4159

0.6
0.7
-2.3
-17.3
4.1
5.8
-1.7
64.8
63.1

1.2
0.6
-4.8
-5.1
2.9
6.6
0.1
14.7
22.2
4.9

0.6
0.3
-5.5
14.3
-2.9
-0.4
0.5
5.0
8.5
18.5

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

107892
60309
20632
20568
57
7
0
26951
4599
0
9942
4574
11028
1407
0
0

111422
63242
21290
20551
723
16
0
26891
5371
0
8576
5523
11219
1572
0
0

117671
63242
27667
20652
6022
753
240
26762
4275
0
7177
6789
10920
1874
0
2

129416
64757
33188
20706
10125
2117
240
31471
6268
0
5963
12678
10560
2269
0
2

139245
66272
44153
20770
18836
4157
390
28820
5455
0
3936
13749
8425
2709
0
2

148669
60068
53457
21092
25064
6591
709
35143
5974
0
2714
21679
7997
2752
0
2

160344
60313
60891
21322
28794
9715
1060
39140
6340
739
1754
26640
7669
2835
0
242

0.9
0.5
3.0
0.0
59.4
59.7
-0.1
-0.7

1.7
0.5
4.8
0.1
12.1
18.6
5.0
0.7
2.5

1.4
-0.9
3.3
0.3
4.3
8.9
10.5
3.1
1.5

-3.2
4.0
-0.1
2.9

-5.8
7.3
-2.6
3.8

-7.8
6.8
-0.9
0.5

0.0

66.2

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

52.5

53.8

52.6

51.1

50.2

48.4

46.3

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

34.8
3.2
0.0
90.8
77.4
13.3

34.4
3.4
0.0
89.2
79.0
10.2

32.4
3.3
0.0
91.7
78.4
13.4

36.1
4.5
0.0
90.1
75.4
14.8

34.8
4.3
0.0
92.8
74.0
18.8

30.0
4.0
0.0
95.0
73.4
21.6

28.3
4.0
1.1
95.0
71.4
23.7

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

772.5
41.3
599.8
73.9
53.5
3.9

819.1
41.6
652.5
64.5
56.4
4.1

908.2
43.0
711.9
80.7
69.1
3.5

937.7
43.9
740.3
88.9
61.5
3.1

952.1
47.5
740.3
94.0
66.9
3.2

1024.9
51.1
789.2
103.6
77.6
3.4

1075.3
54.4
816.6
112.1
88.7
3.5

1133.1
57.9
850.2
122.3
99.0
3.7

1199.6
61.4
893.3
132.3
108.8
3.9

1.6
0.4
1.7
0.9
2.6
-1.3

0.5
1.0
0.4
1.5
-0.3
-0.7

1.2
1.4
1.0
1.8
2.9
0.8

1.1
1.2
0.9
1.7
2.1
0.9

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

213.6
153.7
52.2
7.6

233.1
178.2
48.3
6.6

270.8
204.0
57.7
9.1

254.9
205.3
40.7
8.9

268.2
216.5
42.7
9.0

295.1
239.2
46.4
9.5

313.5
253.4
50.2
10.0

334.9
270.2
54.2
10.5

358.2
288.9
58.3
10.9

2.4
2.9
1.0
1.9

-0.1
0.6
-3.0
-0.1

1.6
1.6
1.6
1.0

1.3
1.3
1.5
0.9

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

42037
440
25694
10192
1153
3839
718

44292
438
27178
10029
1222
4690
735

51586
446
32862
9441
1376
6683
778

49941
446
32693
8938
1267
6291
306

49329
480
31237
9405
1296
6596
315

49412
503
29815
10313
1367
7085
329

49252
510
28537
10773
1376
7717
340

47820
512
26542
11407
1392
7613
353

44954
511
23851
11841
1330
7053
369

2.1
0.1
2.5
-0.8
1.8
5.7
0.8

-0.4
0.7
-0.5
0.0
-0.6
-0.1
-8.7

0.0
0.6
-0.9
1.4
0.6
1.6
0.8

-0.9
0.0
-1.8
0.9
-0.3
-0.9
0.8

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

85

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Germany: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

186681
125125
4031
13532
37674
6320
1498
4797
6
11
7

141981
78834
3308
15099
37322
7417
1873
5348
147
41
9

133331
59599
3525
15800
43750
10656
1869
7877
804
96
10

136015
56488
5746
14224
42061
17496
1684
12980
2341
353
138

119159
45650
3120
12200
33909
24281
1811
16558
4199
1300
413

108500
38386
2630
11000
26429
30055
1883
18531
7008
2063
570

86547
30732
2200
10000
8919
34696
1922
20363
8859
2510
1042

82414
34881
0
8000
0
39533
1986
21168
11654
2881
1845

85808
34582
0
6500
0
44726
2052
21581
15110
3172
2811

-3.3
-7.1
-1.3
1.6
1.5
5.4
2.2
5.1
62.9
24.3
3.4

-1.1
-2.6
-1.2
-2.6
-2.5
8.6
-0.3
7.7
18.0
29.8
45.5

-3.1
-3.9
-3.4
-2.0
-12.5
3.6
0.6
2.1
7.8
6.8
9.7

2.6
0.7
0.6
5.5
2.4
10.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

166524
3182
121527
89820
31707
41747
68

196270
10963
131988
102213
29775
52904
415

205682
21603
126951
102638
24312
56865
263

215281
26805
123134
113980
9154
65734
-393

210889
26101
112353
110081
2272
73591
-1439

212034
29934
108652
108466
186
73066
22

221907
40529
103551
106175
-2624
76292
1098

211289
37309
97284
100992
-3709
74807
1403

194553
31597
89189
93855
-4666
71739
1475

2.1
21.1
0.4
1.3
-2.6
3.1
14.5

0.3
1.9
-1.2
0.7
-21.1
2.6

0.5
4.5
-0.8
-0.4

-1.3
-2.5
-1.5
-1.2

0.4

-0.6
3.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

356271
131521
125712
54976
37674
68
6320

339454
92175
134828
67298
37322
415
7417

341166
83725
130919
71853
43750
263
10656

347147
82803
124323
80856
42061
-393
17496

327478
71751
112903
85791
33909
-1439
24564

317875
68321
108623
84066
26429
22
30414

305805
71261
103103
86292
8919
1098
35133

291078
72190
94658
82807
0
1403
40020

277747
66179
86574
78239
0
1475
45280

-0.4
-4.4
0.4
2.7
1.5
14.5
5.4

-0.4
-1.5
-1.5
1.8
-2.5

-0.7
-0.1
-0.9
0.1
-12.5

-1.0
-0.7
-1.7
-1.0

8.7

3.6

3.0
2.6

36.9
35.3
15.4
10.6
1.8

27.2
39.7
19.8
11.0
2.2

24.5
38.4
21.1
12.8
3.1

23.9
35.8
23.3
12.1
5.0

21.9
34.5
26.2
10.4
7.5

21.5
34.2
26.4
8.3
9.6

23.3
33.7
28.2
2.9
11.5

24.8
32.5
28.4
0.0
13.7

23.8
31.2
28.2
0.0
16.3

547549
66295

533711
62666

567219
74161

613054
73028

631996
70290

634715
68151

640072
69729

661848
86457

680251
98584

0.4
1.1

1.1
-0.5

0.1
-0.1

0.6
3.5

92914
75541
2873
12676
1824
0
0

85884
69147
2090
11982
2665
0
0

85258
68066
1113
12906
3174
0
0

92517
66172
2051
19356
4938
0
0

90560
59768
858
23181
6576
179
0

87715
57030
1467
22052
6942
223
0

96523
59276
2756
26110
7767
614
0

98438
60216
2353
26055
8501
1314
0

92363
54604
1760
24320
9392
2287
0

-0.9
-1.0
-9.0
0.2
5.7

0.6
-1.3
-2.6
6.0
7.6

0.6
-0.1
12.4
1.2
1.7
13.1

-0.4
-0.8
-4.4
-0.7
1.9
14.1

165992
108022
0
6392
51578

141292
117793
31
3638
19831

137838
120748
222
1437
15431

145413
127966
1948
868
14632

135869
120595
3596
1528
10150

133239
118246
4289
1365
9339

131299
115067
4606
1491
10135

121853
107095
4614
498
9647

113759
99301
4502
869
9087

-1.8
1.1
-13.9
-11.4

-0.1
0.0
32.1
0.6
-4.1

-0.3
-0.5
2.5
-0.2
0.0

-1.4
-1.5
-0.2
-5.3
-1.1

Energy Branch Consumption

15451

14982

14383

15267

14136

13435

13005

13634

13797

-0.7

-0.2

-0.8

0.6

Non-Energy Uses

23473

23323

25457

24974

24221

24136

23962

23079

22194

0.8

-0.5

-0.1

-0.8

227197

222795

218098

218369

217767

218762

215959

207827

199255

-0.4

0.0

-0.1

-0.8

71457
48775
22682
58417
38691
58631

62001
42867
19134
63145
34569
63080

57896
39110
18787
62142
31872
66188

55666
37592
18074
67731
32823
62149

52776
34484
18291
69448
32799
62745

53258
34378
18879
68995
32602
63908

54259
34841
19418
66344
31857
63500

53533
33765
19769
63530
30861
59903

52843
33041
19802
61267
29593
55551

-2.1
-2.2
-1.9
0.6
-1.9
1.2

-0.9
-1.3
-0.3
1.1
0.3
-0.5

0.3
0.1
0.6
-0.5
-0.3
0.1

-0.3
-0.5
0.2
-0.8
-0.7
-1.3

37141
96799
42724
38391
9150
2991
0

14915
104905
52595
38912
8737
2731
0

10949
98462
56064
41496
6323
4804
0

9829
88706
59821
44497
7428
8088
0

7225
81498
60744
45468
11986
10841
5

6849
78302
59161
47383
14037
13023
8

7065
73577
56562
48796
15809
14141
10

7165
67275
54166
49585
15211
14416
10

6955
61418
50823
50259
15533
14257
9

-11.5
0.2
2.8
0.8
-3.6
4.9

-4.1
-1.9
0.8
0.9
6.6
8.5

-0.2
-1.0
-0.7
0.7
2.8
2.7
7.7

-0.2
-1.8
-1.1
0.3
-0.2
0.1
-1.1

8852

14393

22559

28609

32669

37004

41312

9.8

3.8

2.4

1025.5

923.0
476.4
748.2
305.1
24.3
77.1
120.1
49.6
171.9
67.9
107.0

889.1
460.3
718.6
292.7
22.1
70.9
113.0
46.4
173.4
68.2
102.3

885.2
481.7
714.9
309.4
20.7
69.2
101.8
42.6
171.3
72.4
97.9

801.9
422.7
633.2
253.7
19.0
67.4
92.7
39.9
160.6
72.7
96.0

681.5
330.8
518.2
166.9
17.4
63.5
85.8
37.0
147.7
72.0
91.3

-1.6

-1.0

817.9
315.8
26.6
113.0
117.8
53.2
191.5
82.8
124.8

997.3
544.6
803.4
325.0
28.3
101.0
122.2
52.0
174.8
77.7
116.2

-1.4
-1.7
0.3
-3.7
-0.8
-4.2
1.2
-0.2
-3.8

-0.9
-0.3
-0.9
-3.8
0.2
-0.7
-1.1
-2.0
-1.5

-0.4
0.1
-0.5
0.1
-1.6
-1.1
-1.6
-1.5
0.0
0.7
-0.9

-2.6
-3.7
-3.2
-6.0
-1.7
-0.9
-1.7
-1.4
-1.5
-0.1
-0.7

84.7

82.4

76.3

73.5

73.1

66.3

56.3

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-0.1
1.2
-4.2

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

1210.3
943.1
373.3
25.9
165.4
127.3
81.9
169.4
84.2
183.0
100.0

858.6
328.6
27.2
129.6
126.8
63.9
182.4
80.6

Source: PRIMES

86

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Germany: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

79.113
1830.3
194.7
2.65
46.4

81.539
1971.3
172.2
2.53
57.5

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

82.163
2177.2
156.7
2.40
59.9

82.501
2243.2
154.8
2.31
61.6

82.145
2281.5
143.5
2.28
63.9

81.858
2510.7
126.6
2.26
66.2

81.472
2723.6
112.3
2.34
71.9

80.907
2867.1
101.5
2.18
71.9

80.152
3008.8
92.3
1.87
69.4

200.9
9.2

240.5
10.7

253.8
11.1

284.6
11.3

329.6
12.1

352.1
12.3

352.4
11.7

0.4
1.8
-2.1
-1.0

0.0
0.5
-0.9
-0.5

-0.1
1.8
-2.4
0.2

-0.2
1.0
-1.9
-2.2

2.4

2.6

0.7

132.8
113.2
156.4
49.7
43.7

118.3
111.0
123.5
45.4
43.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
45.0
42.5

89.5
107.4
98.2
40.5
37.7

83.5
110.1
95.3
39.2
37.8

78.1
99.4
86.2
35.9
37.2

73.1
88.8
77.7
34.1
35.5

68.9
81.0
71.2
31.0
33.6

65.4
74.3
64.9
27.8
31.4

-2.8
-1.2
-4.4
-1.0
-0.3

-1.8
1.0
-0.5
-1.4
-1.2

-1.3
-2.1
-2.0
-1.4
-0.6

-1.1
-1.8
-1.8
-2.0
-1.2

0.56
2.39
2.31
2.18
2.12
2.89

0.51
2.26
2.09
2.01
1.85
2.89

0.48
2.18
1.95
1.90
1.67
2.89

0.45
2.06
1.81
1.80
1.58
2.81

0.38
1.92
1.46
1.73
1.51
2.74

0.35
1.85
1.33
1.64
1.42
2.71

0.36
1.78
1.28
1.53
1.34
2.70

0.29
1.73
1.26
1.46
1.29
2.68

0.19
1.68
1.20
1.40
1.25
2.66

-1.4
-0.9
-1.7
-1.4
-2.4
0.0

-2.3
-1.2
-2.9
-0.9
-1.0
-0.5

-0.5
-0.8
-1.3
-1.2
-1.2
-0.2

-6.4
-0.6
-0.6
-0.9
-0.7
-0.1

3.9
0.6

6.4
3.9

10.0
7.1

12.6
8.6

14.6
9.6

17.1
10.5

19.8
11.5

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

567219
169575
292440
4733
59321
10011
21728
9350
60
0

613054
163026
285286
8811
91860
15988
19577
27224
1282
0

631996
131452
259860
4426
131597
26427
21054
48827
8146
208

634715
102456
249528
6957
127026
31269
21893
81492
13833
260

640072
34576
262322
12229
150531
36112
22349
103009
18230
714

661848
0
277036
10458
152782
39497
23094
135507
21945
1528

680251
0
263528
7705
138442
43093
23856
175702
25266
2659

1.1
-2.5
-1.2
-0.7
8.3
10.2
-0.3
18.0
63.4

0.1
-12.5
0.1
10.7
1.4
3.2
0.6
7.8
8.4
13.1

0.6

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

112510
21301
10477
4268
6095
114
0
80731
13526
0
51482
20674
6659
1916
0
0

121873
20680
24021
4081
18433
1508
0
77172
16773
0
48960
19428
6354
2430
0
0

143633
15521
40427
4246
27723
8458
0
87685
21790
0
48589
28704
5356
5006
0
30

165802
12031
58576
4310
39906
14360
0
95195
23145
0
49004
36205
4176
5781
0
30

173108
4049
68805
4427
45459
18919
0
100254
24610
646
45725
39248
8758
6442
0
81

185047
0
83006
4616
55616
22774
0
102041
26269
7147
41647
44379
9179
6662
0
174

196941
0
98953
4694
68039
26220
0
97988
26842
14829
42696
40506
7715
6769
0
304

2.5
-3.1
14.5
-0.1
16.4
53.8

1.9
-12.6
5.5
0.4
5.1
8.4

1.3

0.8
4.9

1.3
1.2

-0.6
3.3
-2.2
10.1

-0.6
3.2
5.0
2.6

-0.2
0.9
36.8
-0.7
0.3
-1.3
0.5

10.6

14.1

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

53.7

53.6

47.2

41.4

40.0

37.8

36.0

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

37.0
11.7
0.0
37.2
29.9
7.3

37.4
13.9
0.0
37.0
26.6
10.5

40.1
20.2
0.0
37.4
20.8
16.6

40.7
23.5
0.0
39.6
16.1
23.4

41.2
24.0
1.1
33.6
5.4
28.2

42.0
25.3
11.7
33.5
0.0
33.5

42.4
25.0
22.5
39.8
0.0
39.8

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

0.0
-4.5
-0.8
1.8
0.7
5.5
3.3
14.1

3.7
0.6
4.1
3.3

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

888.1
73.1
698.4
76.1
37.4
3.1

1033.4
68.5
830.5
85.4
46.3
2.7

1065.5
69.0
849.6
90.0
54.7
2.2

1098.9
67.1
875.7
92.3
61.7
2.0

1112.3
68.5
881.4
93.4
66.9
2.1

1209.7
73.4
951.5
101.6
81.0
2.2

1268.3
77.1
984.8
109.3
94.9
2.3

1300.7
79.1
996.0
114.2
109.0
2.4

1335.5
80.8
1011.8
118.9
121.6
2.4

1.8
-0.6
2.0
1.7
3.9
-3.1

0.4
-0.1
0.4
0.4
2.0
-0.7

1.3
1.2
1.1
1.6
3.6
1.0

0.5
0.5
0.3
0.8
2.5
0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

331.7
175.2
101.7
54.8

372.3
237.8
70.5
64.0

429.8
280.7
82.7
66.5

469.6
310.1
95.4
64.1

507.7
338.9
103.6
65.2

551.4
367.1
113.3
71.0

571.1
376.2
120.1
74.9

580.2
380.1
123.1
77.0

587.7
383.9
125.1
78.7

2.6
4.8
-2.0
1.9

1.7
1.9
2.3
-0.2

1.2
1.0
1.5
1.4

0.3
0.2
0.4
0.5

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

58631
779
37559
12208
2118
5307
660

63080
721
39747
13949
2131
5975
558

66188
716
39405
16490
1950
7345
281

62149
682
35052
15960
1830
8304
321

62745
690
33748
17381
1886
8712
327

63908
717
32480
18590
1962
9808
352

63500
715
31129
18344
1931
11014
367

59903
694
28285
17657
1854
11038
374

55551
666
24943
16814
1631
11117
380

1.2
-0.8
0.5
3.1
-0.8
3.3
-8.2

-0.5
-0.4
-1.5
0.5
-0.3
1.7
1.5

0.1
0.4
-0.8
0.5
0.2
2.4
1.2

-1.3
-0.7
-2.2
-0.9
-1.7
0.1
0.3

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

87

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Greece: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

9155
7077
835
138
0
1105
152
893
0
56
3

9741
7911
460
44
0
1326
303
935
3
82
3

10011
8222
281
42
0
1466
318
1010
39
99
2

10316
8538
101
18
0
1659
431
1015
109
102
1

9798
7948
82
24
0
1744
344
998
263
138
1

10189
8002
60
0
0
2127
353
1083
433
255
1

10636
7965
40
0
0
2632
364
1093
742
367
66

11201
7962
0
0
0
3239
376
1140
1092
443
188

11724
7968
0
0
0
3757
384
1197
1320
487
369

0.9
1.5
-10.3
-11.2

-0.2
-0.3
-11.6
-5.5

0.8
0.0
-6.9

1.0
0.0

2.9
7.6
1.2
74.7
5.8
-4.7

1.8
0.8
-0.1
21.1
3.4
-4.1

4.2
0.6
0.9
10.9
10.3
51.1

3.6
0.5
0.9
5.9
2.9
18.9

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

15473
988
14424
14802
-378
0
61

18268
925
17275
16997
277
0
69

22065
768
19610
20508
-898
1689
-1

23448
371
20419
19443
977
2332
325

23677
204
19759
20099
-340
3238
401

25280
213
20070
20398
-329
4328
436

25969
238
19832
20192
-360
5054
404

26596
254
19527
19930
-403
5970
390

26879
267
19140
19594
-453
6621
385

3.6
-2.5
3.1
3.3

0.7
-12.4
0.1
-0.2

0.9
1.6
0.0
0.0

0.3
1.2
-0.4
-0.3

6.7

4.6
0.1

2.7
-0.5

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

22338
8091
12942
138
0
61
1105

24228
8783
14006
44
0
69
1326

28217
9040
16007
1705
0
-1
1466

31352
8952
18063
2354
0
325
1659

30864
8152
17230
3262
0
401
1819

32739
8215
17399
4328
0
436
2360

33774
8202
17040
5054
0
404
3073

34847
8216
16577
5970
0
390
3693

35543
8235
16080
6621
0
385
4222

2.4
1.1
2.1
28.6

0.9
-1.0
0.7
6.7

0.9
0.1
-0.1
4.5

0.5
0.0
-0.6
2.7

2.9

2.2

0.1
5.4

-0.5
3.2

36.2
57.9
0.6
0.0
4.9

36.3
57.8
0.2
0.0
5.5

32.0
56.7
6.0
0.0
5.2

28.6
57.6
7.5
0.0
5.3

26.4
55.8
10.6
0.0
5.9

25.1
53.1
13.2
0.0
7.2

24.3
50.5
15.0
0.0
9.1

23.6
47.6
17.1
0.0
10.6

23.2
45.2
18.6
0.0
11.9

34767
5818

41291
6451

53415
8430

59416
10124

61339
10133

69330
11194

76011
11891

82010
12763

87041
13342

4.4
3.8

1.4
1.9

2.2
1.6

1.4
1.2

8619
6890
1711
18
0
0
0

9938
7810
2076
14
38
0
0

11693
8234
2114
1280
64
0
0

12405
8693
2055
1605
52
0
0

11542
7894
1556
2058
34
0
0

12506
7956
1380
2887
283
0
0

12927
7937
1026
3457
443
64
0

13677
7939
771
4249
530
187
0

14270
7951
553
4809
589
368
0

3.1
1.8
2.1
53.1

-0.1
-0.4
-3.0
4.9
-6.0

1.1
0.1
-4.1
5.3
29.1

1.0
0.0
-6.0
3.4
2.9
19.0

16747
16670
0
0
77

17954
17901
0
0
52

22504
22473
0
0
30

21602
21510
0
0
93

20643
20496
144
0
3

21046
20801
243
0
3

20932
20599
330
0
3

20716
20320
394
0
2

20416
19987
426
0
2

3.0
3.0

-0.9
-0.9

0.1
0.1
8.6

-0.2
-0.3
2.6

-8.8

-21.0

-1.4

-1.1

1194

1172

1558

1755

1725

1763

1786

1788

1769

2.7

1.0

0.3

-0.1

672

456

719

761

771

831

902

941

970

0.7

0.7

1.6

0.7

14541

15838

18560

20800

21201

22492

23264

23678

23908

2.5

1.3

0.9

0.3

3945
2535
1410
3057
1718
5821

4114
2493
1621
3332
1947
6445

4445
2727
1718
4486
2417
7212

4143
2573
1570
5489
3083
8085

4035
2397
1638
5703
3163
8300

4194
2498
1696
6204
3475
8619

4421
2638
1782
6443
3635
8765

4500
2687
1813
6536
3777
8865

4594
2740
1854
6583
3895
8836

1.2
0.7
2.0
3.9
3.5
2.2

-1.0
-1.3
-0.5
2.4
2.7
1.4

0.9
1.0
0.8
1.2
1.4
0.5

0.4
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.7
0.1

1053
10073
15
2448
0
952
0

1074
10837
14
2931
0
982
0

888
12631
257
3710
28
1046
0

446
14278
585
4377
49
1066
0

257
14248
674
4645
207
1169
1

258
14633
790
5273
328
1209
1

265
14617
876
5751
450
1304
1

276
14499
900
6175
521
1304
1

284
14245
964
6553
537
1324
1

-1.7
2.3
33.0
4.2
0.9

-11.7
1.2
10.1
2.3
22.1
1.1

0.3
0.3
2.7
2.2
8.1
1.1
9.0

0.7
-0.3
1.0
1.3
1.8
0.2
-0.1

2.8

4.4

2.6

1.7

-0.3

2.3
2.6
2.3
0.6
4.9
0.1
2.1
1.2
0.1

0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-3.3
3.2
1.6
1.2
0.1
-2.3

0.4
0.7
0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.5
0.7
-0.8
0.4
1.8
0.0

0.2
0.5
0.1
0.4
-0.8
0.0
-0.4
-0.9
0.0
1.2
0.1

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption

(B)

TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

101.4

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

71.1
34.1
2.4
9.3
4.6
3.4
17.2
7.2
23.1

78.0
39.0
2.2
9.8
4.8
3.2
19.1
7.7

1370

1507

1809

2204

2778

3226

3588

120.5
88.9
43.9
3.1
9.9
7.5
3.4
21.3
8.1
23.5

127.5
67.9
95.8
46.3
3.5
8.2
9.7
4.2
23.9
8.3
23.5

117.5
61.9
90.7
42.4
2.9
7.1
10.2
4.0
24.0
8.2
18.7

121.1
64.7
93.7
44.1
2.9
7.3
11.0
3.8
24.7
8.9
18.5

122.5
66.4
94.1
44.2
2.9
7.4
11.0
3.6
24.9
9.8
18.7

123.9
68.4
94.7
45.3
2.8
7.3
10.8
3.5
25.0
10.4
18.7

124.6
70.1
94.7
45.9
2.7
7.4
10.5
3.3
24.9
11.0
18.8

118.9

125.8

115.9

119.4

120.8

122.2

122.8

Source: PRIMES

88

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Greece: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

10.121
127.6
175.0
3.18
62.2

10.595
135.8
178.4
3.22
65.8

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

10.904
160.9
175.4
3.15
69.4

11.083
197.6
158.6
3.05
68.6

11.307
219.4
140.7
2.94
70.7

11.476
251.9
130.0
2.86
71.3

11.556
290.6
116.2
2.78
70.9

11.575
323.2
107.8
2.72
70.4

11.573
351.6
101.1
2.67
69.6

17.2
10.7

21.1
10.7

22.8
10.4

26.9
10.7

33.2
11.4

37.7
11.7

39.8
11.3

0.7
2.3
0.0
-0.1

0.4
3.2
-2.2
-0.7

0.2
2.9
-1.9
-0.5

0.0
1.9
-1.4
-0.4

2.8

3.8

1.8

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)

84.1
79.7
99.0
41.7
79.8

92.5
79.3
104.6
39.9
79.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
36.3
66.6

74.3
99.6
102.6
35.0
63.2

67.9
95.7
95.5
34.3
61.1

62.8
90.4
90.5
31.9
60.8

58.2
82.3
81.7
30.0
58.6

54.7
75.8
75.9
28.5
56.2

52.1
70.5
71.7
26.8
53.6

1.7
2.3
0.1
-1.4
-1.8

-3.8
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.9

-1.5
-1.5
-1.6
-1.3
-0.4

-1.1
-1.5
-1.3
-1.1
-0.9

Carbon Intensity indicators


Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

0.98
2.38
2.36
1.51
1.96
2.96

0.94
2.32
2.37
1.43
1.65
2.96

0.82
2.26
2.22
1.66
1.40
2.95

0.77
2.21
1.98
1.77
1.37
2.95

0.65
2.14
1.75
1.79
1.25
2.90

0.59
2.08
1.73
1.77
1.08
2.87

0.53
2.02
1.67
1.70
1.00
2.84

0.50
1.97
1.63
1.66
0.92
2.82

0.48
1.93
1.61
1.60
0.85
2.82

-1.8
-0.5
-0.6
0.9
-3.3
0.0

-2.3
-0.6
-2.4
0.8
-1.1
-0.2

-1.9
-0.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.2
-0.2

-1.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.7
-1.6
-0.1

7.2
0.0

7.0
0.0

8.2
2.2

9.4
3.6

11.5
4.9

13.2
5.9

14.6
6.6

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

53415
0
33585
9354
6149
183
3692
451
0
0

59416
0
35610
9188
8154
182
5016
1266
1
0

61339
0
33567
8142
12325
151
3999
3062
94
0

69330
0
33731
6792
17512
1205
4110
5039
941
0

76011
0
33431
5230
20732
1887
4238
8623
1795
75

82010
0
34219
3443
22393
2313
4374
12692
2358
217

87041
0
34311
2479
24727
2546
4464
15349
2738
427

1.4

2.2

1.4

0.0
-1.4
7.2
-1.9
0.8
21.1

0.0
-4.3
5.3
28.7
0.6
10.9
34.2

0.3
-7.2
1.8
3.0
0.5
5.9
4.3
19.0

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

10288
0
2585
2359
226
0
0
7703
200
0
4507
1114
2054
28
0
0

11926
0
2887
2395
491
1
0
9039
361
0
4799
1899
2282
59
0
0

14954
0
3820
2395
1348
76
0
11135
581
0
4799
3629
2622
85
0
0

18393
0
5458
2547
2230
682
0
12935
741
0
4241
6209
2401
85
0
0

21152
0
7540
2692
3678
1170
0
13613
938
0
4375
7070
2006
152
0
9

25889
0
9619
2776
5306
1537
0
16270
1014
0
4434
9878
1712
220
0
25

28489
0
11085
2811
6489
1785
0
17404
1035
0
4434
10920
1712
289
0
49

3.8

3.5

3.0

4.0
0.2
19.6

7.0
1.2
10.6
31.4

3.9
0.4
5.8
4.3

3.8
11.3

2.0
4.9

2.5
1.0

0.6
12.5
2.5
11.8

-0.9
6.9
-2.6
6.1

0.1
4.4
-1.6
6.6

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

54.9

52.8

43.9

40.5

38.8

34.2

33.1

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

36.2
1.6
0.0
8.1
0.0
8.1

36.8
1.9
0.0
10.9
0.0
10.9

40.4
5.0
0.0
11.9
0.0
11.9

40.7
5.7
0.0
16.3
0.0
16.3

40.8
6.3
0.0
21.9
0.0
21.9

39.4
6.4
0.0
26.8
0.0
26.8

38.9
6.2
0.0
29.3
0.0
29.3

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

19.0

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

85.8
17.7
37.5
2.8
22.1
5.7

99.2
20.2
47.5
2.3
22.8
6.3

128.7
21.7
66.7
3.1
29.9
7.3

152.9
21.7
89.7
3.4
31.1
7.1

170.2
22.2
102.7
3.7
34.1
7.4

185.7
22.7
109.0
4.1
42.2
7.7

198.3
23.2
111.8
4.5
50.9
8.0

207.7
23.3
111.0
4.8
60.4
8.2

217.8
23.5
111.2
5.0
69.9
8.3

4.1
2.0
5.9
0.9
3.1
2.6

2.8
0.2
4.4
2.0
1.3
0.1

1.5
0.4
0.9
2.0
4.1
0.7

0.9
0.1
-0.1
0.9
3.2
0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

28.0
20.8
0.6
6.6

31.4
24.0
0.3
7.1

38.1
29.0
0.4
8.7

43.2
32.5
0.6
10.1

40.3
28.7
0.9
10.7

44.2
31.6
1.0
11.6

48.1
34.3
1.1
12.7

52.3
37.4
1.2
13.7

56.1
40.3
1.2
14.6

3.1
3.4
-3.5
2.8

0.6
-0.1
7.4
2.1

1.8
1.8
2.3
1.7

1.6
1.6
1.1
1.4

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

5821
190
1657
2066
75
1264
568

6445
214
2092
2309
57
1226
546

7212
225
2729
2380
60
1325
493

8085
220
3464
2517
58
1181
645

8300
222
3816
2223
76
1284
678

8619
222
3656
2426
85
1522
710

8765
215
3493
2535
88
1692
742

8865
206
3309
2642
88
1854
766

8836
196
3051
2704
82
2018
784

2.2
1.7
5.1
1.4
-2.2
0.5
-1.4

1.4
-0.1
3.4
-0.7
2.4
-0.3
3.2

0.5
-0.3
-0.9
1.3
1.4
2.8
0.9

0.1
-1.0
-1.3
0.6
-0.6
1.8
0.6

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

89

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Hungary: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

14157
3948
2330
3812
3544
523
15
422
0
0
86

13466
3095
2339
3788
3618
626
14
526
0
0
86

11215
2893
1673
2475
3658
516
15
415
0
0
86

10644
1748
1780
2331
3569
1217
17
1110
1
2
87

10561
1720
1200
2200
3787
1654
13
1552
15
10
65

10984
1519
1000
2000
4465
2000
21
1853
25
22
79

11469
1527
1000
1900
4497
2545
90
2150
42
86
178

12312
1281
900
1775
5051
3305
198
2544
54
118
392

12891
1524
800
1700
5051
3816
202
2689
64
158
703

-2.3
-3.1
-3.3
-4.2
0.3
-0.1
0.0
-0.2

-0.6
-5.1
-3.3
-1.2
0.3
12.4
-1.9
14.1

0.0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

14465
1686
6651
6505
145
5170
958

12652
1395
5519
5962
-444
5532
207

14026
1081
5366
5893
-527
7283
296

17519
1303
5872
6334
-462
9807
535

17741
1320
6514
6615
-101
9488
396

19013
1332
7407
7477
-70
9888
356

19025
1309
7536
7600
-64
9856
283

18434
1311
7616
7683
-68
9207
248

18082
1294
7531
7630
-100
8979
218

-0.3
-4.3
-2.1
-1.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

28681
5969
8774
8913
3544
958
523

25896
4549
7721
9175
3618
207
626

25016
3967
6923
9657
3658
296
516

28006
3054
7537
12094
3569
535
1217

28302
3041
7714
11688
3787
396
1677

29997
2851
8407
11888
4465
356
2030

30495
2836
8536
11756
4497
283
2587

30746
2592
8516
10982
5051
248
3357

30972
2817
8331
10679
5051
218
3876

20.8
30.6
31.1
12.4
1.8

17.6
29.8
35.4
14.0
2.4

15.9
27.7
38.6
14.6
2.1

10.9
26.9
43.2
12.7
4.3

10.7
27.3
41.3
13.4
5.9

9.5
28.0
39.6
14.9
6.8

9.3
28.0
38.6
14.7
8.5

8.4
27.7
35.7
16.4
10.9

9.1
26.9
34.5
16.3
12.5

28431
6572

34011
7502

35185
7991

35749
6769

37726
6107

41603
6355

45552
6790

49348
7310

4970
2871
440
1636
24
0
0

6113
2977
1447
1634
55
0
0

6107
2853
1052
2140
62
0
0

5659
1924
122
3078
534
0
0

5276
1983
55
2470
768
0
0

5387
1753
49
2632
938
15
0

5985
1768
63
2868
1180
105
0

11720
8870
0
1146
1704

10716
8536
0
789
1392

9261
7622
0
471
1168

10031
8584
5
629
813

10487
8843
163
710
770

11315
9566
232
703
814

Energy Branch Consumption

1459

1390

1243

1657

1692

Non-Energy Uses

1584

1631

1596

2326

2289

19184

15711

15759

18080

6525
4160
2365
6377
3251
3031

3808
2691
1117
5833
3411
2660

3461
2536
925
5276
3759
3263

2502
6029
5941
2717
1570
425
0

965
4158
6370
2385
1287
545
0

668
4186
6503
2531
1440
430
0

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-2.8

0.8
-1.2
-1.8
-1.5
1.7
4.4
21.6
3.3
10.6
24.6
10.7

1.2
0.0
-2.2
-1.1
1.2
4.1
8.4
2.3
4.3
6.3
14.7

2.4
2.0
2.0
1.2

0.7
-0.1
1.5
1.4

-0.5
-0.1
0.0
0.0

3.5
-11.1

2.7
3.0

0.4
-3.3

-0.9
-2.6

-1.4
-4.0
-2.3
0.8
0.3
-11.1
-0.1

1.2
-2.6
1.1
1.9
0.3
3.0
12.5

0.7
-0.7
1.0
0.1
1.7
-3.3
4.4

0.2
-0.1
-0.2
-1.0
1.2
-2.6
4.1

52737
8329

2.2
2.0

0.7
-2.7

1.9
1.1

1.5
2.1

5977
1535
99
2471
1564
308
0

6764
1785
103
2494
1759
623
0

2.1
-0.1
9.1
2.7
10.2

-1.5
-3.6
-25.5
1.4
28.6

1.3
-1.1
1.4
1.5
4.4

1.2
0.1
4.9
-1.4
4.1
19.4

11293
9696
310
488
798

11278
9671
350
477
780

11072
9470
369
482
751

-2.3
-1.5

1.3
1.5

-8.5
-3.7

4.2
-4.1

0.7
0.9
6.7
-3.7
0.4

-0.2
-0.2
1.7
-0.1
-0.6

1791

1799

1789

1781

-1.6

3.1

0.6

-0.1

2382

2451

2458

2462

0.1

3.7

0.7

0.0

18687

19855

20211

20184

20018

-1.9

1.7

0.8

-0.1

3430
2314
1116
6381
4073
4196

3400
2249
1152
6335
4035
4916

3490
2293
1197
6582
4212
5571

3504
2281
1223
6620
4239
5848

3488
2236
1251
6508
4256
5932

3452
2182
1270
6441
4261
5863

-6.1
-4.8
-9.0
-1.9
1.5
0.7

-0.2
-1.2
2.2
1.8
0.7
4.2

0.3
0.1
0.6
0.4
0.5
1.8

-0.1
-0.4
0.4
-0.3
0.1
0.0

692
4812
7852
2780
1297
647
0

649
5290
7796
2840
1256
854
1

684
5923
7763
3096
1387
1001
1

695
6081
7496
3322
1478
1138
1

701
6091
7094
3565
1530
1201
1

685
5958
6772
3747
1666
1188
1

-12.4
-3.6
0.9
-0.7
-0.9
0.1

-0.3
2.4
1.8
1.2
-1.4
7.1

0.7
1.4
-0.4
1.6
1.6
2.9
10.8

-0.2
-0.2
-1.0
1.2
1.2
0.4
0.0

469

798

1274

1550

1980

2476

2686

76.3
53.7
21.5
1.6
6.3
8.6
6.2
9.5
3.7
18.8

77.5
29.6
55.0
17.3
2.0
6.2
10.5
6.7
12.2
3.8
18.8

75.4
27.7
55.1
16.0
2.2
6.1
10.2
6.7
14.0
3.7
16.5

76.1
27.0
56.6
15.4
2.4
6.1
10.4
6.7
15.7
3.9
15.6

75.9
27.3
56.5
15.6
2.3
5.7
10.2
6.5
16.3
4.1
15.3

73.2
25.5
53.7
13.7
2.2
5.5
9.6
6.3
16.4
4.2
15.3

70.3
24.0
51.0
12.4
2.0
5.0
9.3
6.2
16.1
4.3
15.0

78.7

80.0

77.8

78.5

78.3

75.6

72.5

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

96.9
65.7
20.5
2.6
14.7
13.7
5.6
8.6
5.3
25.9
100.0

57.0
23.0
2.4
8.7
9.9
5.5
7.6
3.7

10.5

4.5

3.1

-2.4

-0.1

-2.0
0.5
-4.7
-8.1
-4.6
1.1
0.9
-3.5
-3.1

0.3
-2.9
3.4
-0.4
1.8
0.7
4.0
-0.1
-1.3

0.1
-0.1
0.2
-0.3
0.2
-0.6
0.0
-0.2
1.5
1.0
-0.8

-0.8
-1.3
-1.0
-2.2
-1.1
-1.3
-0.9
-0.6
-0.1
0.4
-0.2

Source: PRIMES

90

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Hungary: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

10.375
66.0
434.3
2.29
50.4

10.337
59.1
437.9
2.20
48.9

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

10.222
72.0
347.4
2.15
56.1

10.098
88.7
315.8
1.96
62.6

10.023
87.6
323.1
1.95
62.7

9.964
101.1
296.6
1.89
63.4

9.893
114.8
265.7
1.85
62.4

9.790
127.6
241.0
1.75
60.0

9.651
141.2
219.3
1.65
58.4

13.0
18.0

14.5
16.4

16.0
18.3

19.4
19.2

23.9
20.8

26.9
21.1

28.3
20.0

-0.1
0.9
-2.2
-0.6

-0.2
2.0
-0.7
-1.0

-0.1
2.7
-1.9
-0.5

-0.2
2.1
-1.9
-1.2

2.1

4.1

1.7

248.3
123.0
81.4
25.9
26.1

156.7
126.8
103.5
25.3
32.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
24.2
45.9

79.0
89.6
86.0
24.9
59.7

81.5
93.8
86.8
25.2
63.0

75.8
81.1
76.6
25.1
63.3

69.9
71.6
67.4
25.2
60.6

64.6
63.4
60.4
24.7
57.3

60.2
55.9
54.1
23.6
53.2

-8.7
-2.1
2.1
-0.7
5.8

-2.0
-0.6
-1.4
0.4
3.2

-1.5
-2.7
-2.5
0.0
-0.4

-1.5
-2.5
-2.2
-0.7
-1.3

0.42
2.22
2.25
2.15
1.71
2.84

0.45
2.02
2.28
1.70
1.60
2.85

0.40
1.94
1.83
1.62
1.66
2.90

0.33
1.97
1.81
1.65
1.65
2.91

0.28
1.98
1.79
1.61
1.65
2.84

0.25
1.96
1.74
1.57
1.60
2.82

0.23
1.91
1.64
1.53
1.54
2.78

0.19
1.87
1.58
1.47
1.48
2.76

0.16
1.82
1.46
1.44
1.44
2.74

-0.6
-1.3
-2.1
-2.8
-0.3
0.2

-3.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
-0.2

-2.0
-0.3
-0.9
-0.5
-0.7
-0.2

-3.4
-0.5
-1.2
-0.6
-0.6
-0.2

2.9
0.0

4.3
0.2

6.6
3.7

7.6
4.6

9.5
5.9

11.9
6.7

13.0
7.3

35185
14177
9924
3901
6885
120
178
0
0
0

35749
13832
6910
505
12572
1717
203
10
0
0

37726
14681
7208
279
11958
3273
147
177
3
0

41603
17308
6320
210
13339
3849
241
289
29
18

45552
17432
6824
266
14444
4859
1043
483
77
123

49348
19816
6065
430
13021
6590
2297
623
147
358

52737
19816
8060
459
13142
7210
2345
740
241
724

0.7
0.3
-3.1
-23.2
5.7
39.2
-1.9

1.9
1.7
-0.5
-0.5
1.9
4.0
21.6
10.6
38.3

1.5
1.3
1.7
5.6
-0.9
4.0
8.4
4.3
12.1
19.4

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

7956
1804
44
44
0
0
0
6109
1125
0
1664
3599
762
84
0
0

8749
1827
64
47
17
0
0
6859
1339
0
1475
4648
309
427
0
0

9385
1854
256
47
205
4
0
7276
1710
0
1511
5021
317
427
0
0

9804
2161
422
61
330
30
0
7221
2031
0
1140
5274
285
521
0
2

9456
2174
1069
437
552
80
0
6214
2460
0
993
4374
201
632
0
14

9295
2475
1325
461
711
153
0
5495
2811
0
867
3433
249
905
0
41

9975
2475
1604
509
845
250
0
5896
3066
329
1095
3579
234
905
0
83

1.7
0.3
19.2
0.7

0.1
1.6
15.4
25.0
10.4
34.9

0.5
1.3
4.1
1.5
4.3
12.1

1.8
4.3

-1.6
3.7

-0.5
2.2

-1.0
3.4
-8.4
17.6

-4.1
-1.4
-4.5
4.0

1.0
-2.0
1.5
3.7

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

46.0

43.0

43.3

46.1

52.3

57.6

56.5

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

29.3
14.3
0.0
41.1
40.3
0.8

33.0
20.0
0.0
44.1
38.7
5.4

37.0
29.4
0.0
48.5
38.9
9.5

37.9
32.3
0.0
52.2
41.6
10.6

38.1
35.8
0.0
52.7
38.3
14.5

38.1
34.9
0.0
60.5
40.2
20.3

37.6
34.0
6.4
58.9
37.6
21.4

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

19.4

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

82.7
19.3
47.6
13.9
1.9
0.0

75.1
16.6
46.2
10.9
1.4
0.0

80.1
18.7
47.0
12.3
2.1
0.0

81.4
17.8
47.7
12.2
3.7
0.0

79.4
17.0
47.1
11.0
4.2
0.0

91.8
17.2
57.9
11.3
5.4
0.0

100.9
17.5
64.4
12.0
7.0
0.0

108.8
17.8
69.3
13.0
8.7
0.0

117.0
18.1
74.5
14.1
10.3
0.0

-0.3
-0.3
-0.1
-1.2
0.6

-0.1
-0.9
0.0
-1.1
7.3

2.4
0.2
3.2
0.9
5.2

1.5
0.4
1.5
1.6
4.0

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

34.0
15.2
16.8
2.0

23.4
13.8
8.4
1.2

28.8
19.1
8.8
0.9

36.4
25.2
9.1
2.1

46.3
34.4
9.8
2.1

51.6
39.1
10.3
2.3

54.4
41.0
11.0
2.4

56.5
42.3
11.6
2.6

58.4
43.4
12.2
2.7

-1.6
2.4
-6.3
-7.9

4.8
6.0
1.1
9.0

1.6
1.8
1.2
1.5

0.7
0.6
1.1
1.1

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

3031
123
1825
637
272
164
9

2660
141
1546
595
191
182
5

3263
156
1532
1181
176
219
1

4196
184
1583
2040
159
230
1

4916
174
1545
2782
156
258
1

5571
170
1790
3132
162
315
1

5848
165
1983
3166
158
375
1

5932
159
2073
3113
152
434
1

5863
154
2095
3006
122
487
1

0.7
2.3
-1.7
6.4
-4.3
2.9
-24.1

4.2
1.1
0.1
8.9
-1.1
1.7
5.8

1.8
-0.5
2.5
1.3
0.1
3.8
1.3

0.0
-0.7
0.6
-0.5
-2.6
2.6
0.9

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

91

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Ireland: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

3353
1312
0
1873
0
168
60
108
0
0
0

4010
1606
0
2249
0
155
61
92
1
0
0

2152
959
0
958
0
235
73
141
21
0
0

1616
789
0
461
0
367
54
216
96
0
0

1633
598
0
410
0
625
59
264
286
13
2

1846
609
0
454
0
783
61
292
388
37
5

2109
634
0
476
0
998
61
357
490
80
11

2410
643
0
493
0
1275
61
457
628
112
17

2738
594
0
500
0
1644
61
583
798
182
22

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

7093
2064
5029
2023
3006
0
0

7631
1823
5725
2269
3456
85
-1

12266
1789
7991
3008
4982
2478
8

13657
1969
8503
3305
5198
3010
176

13989
1644
8633
3147
5486
3481
156

15127
1779
9156
3308
5848
3851
163

15787
1933
9355
3356
5999
4045
172

16065
1902
9460
3371
6088
4185
162

16048
1745
9527
3374
6154
4250
153

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

10246
3416
4789
1873
0
0
168

10861
2775
5598
2334
0
-1
155

14328
2711
7938
3436
0
8
235

15123
2685
8426
3470
0
176
367

15522
2242
8534
3891
0
156
699

16865
2388
9049
4305
0
163
961

17782
2568
9241
4522
0
172
1280

18356
2544
9340
4678
0
162
1632

18661
2339
9402
4750
0
153
2016

33.3
46.7
18.3
0.0
1.6

25.6
51.5
21.5
0.0
1.4

18.9
55.4
24.0
0.0
1.6

17.8
55.7
22.9
0.0
2.4

14.4
55.0
25.1
0.0
4.5

14.2
53.7
25.5
0.0
5.7

14.4
52.0
25.4
0.0
7.2

13.9
50.9
25.5
0.0
8.9

12.5
50.4
25.5
0.0
10.8

14232
2261

17622
2658

23695
3457

25008
3869

26679
3599

30342
4040

33345
4405

36268
4712

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

3019
1839
339
841
0
0
0

3711
2028
622
1060
0
0
0

4792
1925
1019
1825
24
0
0

4747
1903
775
2040
30
0
0

4168
1646
349
2127
45
0
0

4606
1851
328
2348
79
0
0

4897
2024
288
2428
157
0
0

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

1943
1746
0
0
197

2439
2272
0
0
167

3488
3317
0
0
171

3479
3343
1
0
135

3328
3147
93
0
87

3551
3308
171
0
72

Energy Branch Consumption

168

185

245

379

335

Non-Energy Uses

624

552

552

308

7368

7910

10681

1745
870
876
2406
1227
1989

1854
881
973
2200
1507
2349

1784
3887
568
1020
0
108
0

933
4813
796
1277
0
92
0

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-4.3
-3.1

-2.7
-4.6

2.6
0.6

2.6
-0.7

-6.5

-8.1

1.5

0.5

3.4
2.0
2.7

10.3
-2.0
6.5
29.9
52.1
48.2

4.8
0.2
3.0
5.5
20.2
16.0

5.1
0.0
5.0
5.0
8.6
7.3

5.6
-1.4
4.7
4.0
5.2

1.3
-0.8
0.8
0.5
1.0
3.5
33.9

1.2
1.6
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.5
1.0

0.2
-1.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.5
-1.1

3.4
-2.3
5.2
6.3

0.8
-1.9
0.7
1.3

1.4
1.4
0.8
1.5

0.5
-0.9
0.2
0.5

3.4

33.9
11.5

1.0
6.2

-1.1
4.6

38339
4804

5.2
4.3

1.2
0.4

2.3
2.0

1.4
0.9

5030
2031
253
2505
241
0
0

4831
1871
224
2464
273
0
0

4.7
0.5
11.6
8.1

-1.4
-1.6
-10.2
1.5
6.7

1.6
2.1
-1.9
1.3
13.2

-0.1
-0.8
-2.5
0.1
5.7

3667
3356
244
0
67

3712
3371
284
0
57

3735
3374
314
0
47

6.0
6.6

-0.5
-0.5

1.0
0.6
10.1

0.2
0.1
2.6

-1.4

-6.5

-2.6

-3.4

354

367

373

362

3.9

3.2

0.9

-0.1

177

208

220

230

242

-1.2

-10.8

2.2

0.9

12340

12508

13600

14347

14897

15391

3.8

1.6

1.4

0.7

2348
1174
1174
2489
1826
4018

2481
1237
1244
2895
1967
4997

2286
1025
1261
3257
1965
5000

2503
1056
1447
3480
2149
5468

2703
1085
1618
3612
2229
5803

2881
1119
1762
3722
2311
5983

3059
1152
1906
3838
2376
6118

3.0
3.0
3.0
0.3
4.1
7.3

-0.3
-1.3
0.7
2.7
0.7
2.2

1.7
0.6
2.5
1.0
1.3
1.5

1.2
0.6
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.5

699
6919
1201
1744
0
118
0

704
8020
1337
2094
0
184
0

583
7682
1684
2127
123
308
0

525
8199
1873
2412
160
430
1

532
8443
2008
2647
163
552
1

502
8595
2088
2863
185
662
1

458
8732
2180
3024
206
790
1

-9.0
5.9
7.8
5.5

-1.8
1.1
3.4
2.0

0.9

10.1

-0.9
0.9
1.8
2.2
2.9
6.0
9.8

-1.5
0.3
0.8
1.3
2.3
3.6
1.7

9.7

8.5

4.7

2.1

-0.4

3.1
3.9
4.0
1.5
-2.1
2.8
7.4
2.4
0.5

0.1
-1.8
5.6
-1.9
2.3
-1.3
2.0
-6.5
-0.9

0.7
1.4
1.1
1.5
0.8
1.1
0.3
0.7
1.3
1.4
-0.1

0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.9
0.2

14.9
0.0

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption

(B)

TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

56.0
30.8
10.4
0.2
4.0
7.5
2.9
5.9
2.3
22.8
100.0

32.9
12.6
0.2
3.8
6.0
3.4
6.9
2.3

218

349

551

929

1241

1585

1965

69.0
41.9
15.2
0.3
4.6
6.0
3.8
12.0
2.9
24.1

70.7
24.6
45.5
14.8
0.6
4.9
6.8
3.4
14.9
2.7
22.6

66.0
19.7
42.6
12.7
0.6
3.8
7.6
3.3
14.6
1.5
22.0

69.3
21.6
45.6
13.9
0.6
4.1
7.7
3.5
15.8
1.7
22.0

71.1
22.7
47.5
14.7
0.6
4.3
7.8
3.6
16.5
1.7
21.8

72.2
23.1
48.1
14.8
0.6
4.3
7.8
3.6
17.0
1.8
22.3

71.8
22.5
47.7
14.0
0.6
4.3
7.9
3.7
17.3
1.9
22.2

123.2

126.4

117.9

123.8

126.9

129.0

128.2

Source: PRIMES

92

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Ireland: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

3.507
61.2
167.4
3.01
69.1

3.598
77.7
139.9
3.03
69.5

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

3.778
123.7
115.8
2.93
84.7

4.109
162.2
93.3
3.01
89.7

4.614
158.8
97.8
2.74
89.5

5.052
190.3
88.6
2.71
89.1

5.404
221.7
80.2
2.67
88.2

5.673
253.4
72.4
2.62
87.0

5.881
285.9
65.3
2.56
85.4

10.2
8.3

13.0
8.0

12.9
8.1

15.0
7.9

18.9
8.5

21.7
8.6

23.1
8.1

0.7
7.3
-3.6
-0.3

2.0
2.5
-1.7
-0.7

1.6
3.4
-2.0
-0.3

0.8
2.6
-2.0
-0.4

2.3

3.9

2.1

222.5
167.3
111.3
48.7
95.9

150.3
129.6
119.2
45.2
115.5

100.0
100.0
100.0
51.0
121.2

80.1
93.3
81.9
48.5
116.0

68.9
99.0
80.3
47.4
115.6

64.5
95.0
72.9
43.9
114.2

60.3
86.3
64.5
41.0
109.9

57.4
80.7
58.0
37.1
105.1

54.7
76.4
52.5
33.6
99.5

-7.7
-5.0
-1.1
0.5
2.4

-3.7
-0.1
-2.2
-0.7
-0.5

-1.3
-1.4
-2.2
-1.5
-0.5

-1.0
-1.2
-2.1
-2.0
-1.0

0.73
2.74
2.28
3.10
2.34
2.96

0.71
2.55
2.05
2.71
2.28
2.96

0.64
2.47
1.98
2.42
2.07
2.97

0.59
2.43
1.99
2.34
1.74
2.98

0.45
2.34
1.67
2.33
1.69
2.92

0.43
2.29
1.62
2.22
1.65
2.88

0.42
2.24
1.58
2.16
1.60
2.85

0.38
2.20
1.50
2.11
1.55
2.84

0.34
2.16
1.41
2.06
1.54
2.82

-1.3
-1.0
-1.4
-2.4
-1.2
0.1

-3.5
-0.5
-1.7
-0.4
-2.0
-0.2

-0.8
-0.4
-0.6
-0.7
-0.6
-0.2

-1.9
-0.4
-1.1
-0.5
-0.3
-0.1

2.0
0.0

2.8
0.0

4.4
2.3

6.8
3.9

8.6
5.3

10.6
6.0

12.7
6.6

23695
0
8830
4387
9311
76
846
244
0
0

25008
0
8822
3389
10959
95
631
1112
0
0

26679
0
7889
1646
12995
129
691
3327
2
0

30342
0
8903
1521
14419
263
708
4516
14
0

33345
0
9741
1322
15062
595
707
5702
24
193

36268
0
9770
1311
15806
931
704
7305
35
405

38339
0
9004
1170
16028
1067
705
9276
49
1039

1.2

2.3

1.4

-1.1
-9.3
3.4
5.4
-2.0
29.9

2.1
-2.2
1.5
16.5
0.2
5.5
28.7

-0.8
-1.2
0.6
6.0
0.0
5.0
7.5
18.4

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

4399
0
346
230
116
0
0
4053
133
0
1276
1966
783
27
0
0

5718
0
743
225
517
0
0
4976
127
0
1229
2927
772
49
0
0

9578
0
1578
225
1348
5
0
7999
273
0
1230
5903
781
85
0
0

9495
0
1901
229
1659
14
0
7593
319
0
1204
6115
190
85
0
0

9808
0
2413
230
2058
25
100
7395
325
0
1222
5853
192
128
0
0

10340
0
3061
230
2585
37
210
7278
331
0
1221
5648
224
186
0
0

11580
0
4026
230
3206
51
539
7553
351
0
1221
5899
224
209
0
0

8.1

0.2

1.7

16.4
-0.2
27.8

4.3
0.2
4.3
17.3

7.0
7.4

-0.8
1.8

5.3
0.0
4.5
7.5
18.4
0.2
0.8

-0.4
11.6
0.0
12.0

-0.1
-0.1
-13.1
4.2

0.0
0.1
1.6
5.0

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

58.1

46.6

30.2

34.8

37.1

38.4

36.4

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

40.6
2.6
0.0
4.9
0.0
4.9

42.2
2.6
0.0
7.3
0.0
7.3

46.8
2.6
0.0
15.5
0.0
15.5

46.9
4.4
0.0
18.1
0.0
18.1

46.9
4.6
0.0
21.7
0.0
21.7

47.6
4.3
0.0
25.9
0.0
25.9

48.5
4.6
0.0
31.7
0.0
31.7

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

29.2
3.9
21.3
1.2
2.0
0.9

35.6
5.2
25.3
1.3
3.0
0.9

47.1
6.1
32.4
1.4
6.3
0.9

58.1
6.7
38.4
1.9
10.1
1.0

62.9
7.2
40.8
2.1
11.9
1.0

71.3
7.7
46.0
2.4
14.2
1.1

80.8
8.2
52.0
2.7
16.7
1.2

90.4
8.7
58.5
3.1
19.0
1.2

100.6
9.2
65.4
3.5
21.3
1.3

4.9
4.7
4.3
1.3
12.3
0.5

2.9
1.6
2.3
4.1
6.6
0.6

2.5
1.3
2.5
2.7
3.5
1.6

2.2
1.2
2.3
2.4
2.4
1.3

5.9
5.1
0.6
0.2

6.4
5.5
0.6
0.3

13.3
12.3
0.5
0.6

18.8
17.9
0.3
0.6

17.4
16.7
0.1
0.6

20.4
19.6
0.2
0.7

22.7
21.7
0.2
0.7

25.0
24.0
0.2
0.8

27.5
26.4
0.3
0.8

8.5
9.2
-1.8
9.3

2.7
3.1
-12.5
0.3

2.7
2.7
4.4
2.5

2.0
2.0
3.0
1.4

1989
31
994
525
48
365
26

2349
41
1146
694
50
390
28

4018
48
1713
1577
42
613
25

4997
51
1897
2150
45
836
18

5000
54
1935
1999
28
966
18

5468
57
1954
2316
30
1092
20

5803
58
2041
2472
25
1185
21

5983
58
2030
2607
27
1239
23

6118
58
1981
2717
25
1313
24

7.3
4.4
5.6
11.6
-1.4
5.3
-0.5

2.2
1.3
1.2
2.4
-4.0
4.6
-3.2

1.5
0.6
0.5
2.1
-1.0
2.1
1.7

0.5
0.1
-0.3
1.0
-0.2
1.0
1.2

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

93

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Italy: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

25558
218
4766
14030
0
6544
2719
849
0
5
2971

29435
44
5405
16347
0
7640
3249
1215
1
8
3167

27128
4
4811
13622
0
8691
3812
1716
48
12
3103

28111
60
6520
9886
0
11645
3101
3521
202
30
4791

28335
0
5380
8500
0
14455
3300
5401
528
246
4981

28954
0
5386
7900
0
15668
3308
5568
1005
823
4964

33209
0
5322
7300
3277
17310
3329
5796
1588
1440
5157

44411
0
5186
6700
12794
19731
3329
5880
2314
1990
6218

57483
0
4985
6000
24935
21564
3353
5961
2632
2383
7236

0.6
-33.8
0.1
-0.3

0.4

1.6

5.6

1.1
-4.6

-0.1
-1.5

2.9
3.4
7.3
73.3
9.2
0.4

5.2
-1.4
12.2
27.0
34.8
4.8

1.8
0.1
0.7
11.6
19.4
0.3

-0.7
-1.9
22.5
2.2
0.1
0.3
5.2
5.2
3.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

132454
13792
90279
84617
5662
25311
2980

135059
12987
90092
82939
7153
28530
3218

153428
13188
88933
90784
-1852
47008
3813

160955
16366
79901
95053
-15153
59840
4227

154695
16066
69397
81995
-12597
64248
3630

160872
17246
69795
82416
-12621
68439
3333

165235
18216
69133
81761
-12628
71852
2914

160995
17237
67062
79702
-12640
70264
2512

154560
15820
63956
76595
-12639
67975
2126

1.5
-0.4
-0.2
0.7

0.1
2.0
-2.4
-1.0

0.7
1.3
0.0
0.0

-0.7
-1.4
-0.8
-0.7

6.4
2.5

3.2
-0.5

1.1
-2.2

-0.6
-3.1

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

153512
14621
90274
39001
0
2980
6636

161674
12272
93660
44652
0
3218
7871

172955
12659
89365
57940
0
3813
9177

187312
16477
83691
70651
0
4227
12266

179958
16066
71704
72748
0
3630
15808

186617
17246
71971
76339
0
3333
17728

195167
18216
71178
79152
3277
2914
20431

202041
17237
68882
76964
12794
2512
23651

208557
15820
65454
73975
24935
2126
26247

1.2
-1.4
-0.1
4.0

0.4
2.4
-2.2
2.3

0.8
1.3
-0.1
0.8

2.5
3.3

-0.5
5.6

-2.2
2.6

0.7
-1.4
-0.8
-0.7
22.5
-3.1
2.5

9.5
58.8
25.4
0.0
4.3

7.6
57.9
27.6
0.0
4.9

7.3
51.7
33.5
0.0
5.3

8.8
44.7
37.7
0.0
6.5

8.9
39.8
40.4
0.0
8.8

9.2
38.6
40.9
0.0
9.5

9.3
36.5
40.6
1.7
10.5

8.5
34.1
38.1
6.3
11.7

7.6
31.4
35.5
12.0
12.6

213400
29388

237312
31368

270016
35087

296786
36142

300873
33441

331620
37053

373488
42830

405533
46626

434222
51323

2.4
1.8

1.1
-0.5

2.2
2.5

1.5
1.8

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

40328
7017
21531
8971
39
2770
0

43578
5287
25009
10234
94
2954
0

47763
5836
18954
19665
419
2890
0

54689
10001
9640
28200
2270
4578
0

52209
10924
2060
31258
3214
4753
0

55568
11716
3157
32298
3644
4753
0

57998
12403
2854
33739
4065
4937
0

55885
11368
3319
29997
5214
5987
0

50688
10227
1621
25816
5987
7037
0

1.7
-1.8
-1.3
8.2
26.8
0.4

0.9
6.5
-19.9
4.7
22.6
5.1

1.1
1.3
3.3
0.8
2.4
0.4

-1.3
-1.9
-5.5
-2.6
3.9
3.6

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

99583
91895
0
0
7688

99070
92690
0
0
6380

103125
97315
0
0
5811

107857
102905
179
0
4773

94779
89434
1282
0
4063

95850
89681
1810
0
4358

95993
88863
2571
0
4560

94129
86601
2967
0
4561

90771
83238
3296
0
4237

0.4
0.6

-0.8
-0.8

0.1
-0.1
7.2

-0.6
-0.7
2.5

-2.8

-3.5

1.2

-0.7

7028

7345

7289

10110

9398

9473

9674

9607

9425

0.4

2.6

0.3

-0.3

10095

13807

11039

11267

10618

10809

11108

11301

11501

0.9

-0.4

0.5

0.3

107380

113897

123465

135679

131767

137212

141883

144056

145714

1.4

0.7

0.7

0.3

36259
25255
11004
26334
11271
33514

36459
24765
11694
26707
12990
37741

39526
24933
14593
28361
14190
41388

41924
26667
15257
32040
17934
43782

39732
24618
15114
32616
16861
42558

40372
24873
15500
34582
17645
44612

42233
25547
16685
35540
18484
45626

43653
25809
17844
35839
18597
45966

45260
26047
19213
36005
18533
45916

0.9
-0.1
2.9
0.7
2.3
2.1

0.1
-0.1
0.4
1.4
1.7
0.3

0.6
0.4
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.7

0.7
0.2
1.4
0.1
0.0
0.1

4209
53841
29813
18409
0
1107
0

4012
53287
34652
20442
0
1505
0

3681
56357
37984
23435
0
2007
0

4220
58458
41979
25828
3082
2112
0

3321
53763
40953
25852
4011
3864
2

3596
53159
43226
27888
4634
4704
5

3772
52682
44454
30571
4413
5984
6

3813
51862
44168
32606
5628
5973
6

3628
50998
44650
34314
5984
6134
6

-1.3
0.5
2.5
2.4

-1.0
-0.5
0.8
1.0

6.1

6.8

1.3
-0.2
0.8
1.7
1.0
4.5
9.7

-0.4
-0.3
0.0
1.2
3.1
0.2
0.1

6180

7829

10053

11953

14729

17071

18722

5.0

3.9

2.4

532.3

513.8
217.8
412.3
124.4
17.5
63.1
62.7
24.3
120.1
27.7
73.7

526.5
226.6
425.9
133.6
17.4
61.5
65.0
23.7
124.6
28.4
72.2

530.2
230.7
429.8
135.6
17.2
64.1
64.6
23.0
125.2
29.2
71.2

513.7
218.1
413.1
123.6
15.6
62.9
64.0
21.9
125.0
30.0
70.6

485.1
193.4
384.8
99.1
14.3
64.1
62.9
20.7
123.7
30.5
69.8

0.6

-0.4

418.8
130.5
15.9
75.5
54.8
22.0
120.1
28.2
85.2

561.6
254.4
447.6
137.8
19.1
74.9
61.4
27.2
127.3
30.5
83.5

0.9
0.9
-0.1
-0.3
-0.2
1.4
2.1
-1.5
0.4

-0.2
-0.5
1.0
-1.8
1.4
1.0
0.0
-0.2
-1.4

0.3
0.6
0.4
0.9
-0.2
0.2
0.3
-0.6
0.4
0.5
-0.3

-0.9
-1.7
-1.1
-3.1
-1.9
0.0
-0.3
-1.0
-0.1
0.5
-0.2

106.7

112.6

103.0

105.5

106.3

103.0

97.2

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Energy Branch Consumption


Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption

(B)

TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

499.0

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

384.7
118.8
16.0
77.6
55.7
19.1
97.5
32.7
81.5

399.5
125.9
16.4
73.8
52.9
21.2
109.2
30.6

Source: PRIMES

94

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Italy: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

56.694
1168.7
131.4
2.51
84.8

56.844
1244.9
129.9
2.47
82.3

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

56.924
1367.8
126.4
2.42
87.3

58.462
1429.5
131.0
2.39
84.4

60.017
1403.5
128.2
2.29
84.5

60.929
1526.1
122.3
2.28
84.7

61.421
1678.7
116.3
2.20
83.3

61.683
1832.9
110.2
2.04
78.4

61.868
1974.0
105.7
1.85
72.9

137.3
10.0

158.1
11.1

158.1
11.3

186.0
12.2

224.8
13.4

253.8
13.8

265.5
13.4

0.0
1.6
-0.4
-0.3

0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.6

0.2
1.8
-1.0
-0.4

0.1
1.6
-1.0
-1.8

1.4

3.6

1.7

105.9
109.6
93.4
33.5
48.4

98.6
106.6
101.2
32.5
44.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
31.3
45.2

110.7
108.8
119.0
32.3
47.5

111.4
110.4
111.9
31.6
46.4

106.4
105.1
106.4
30.9
46.5

100.5
98.3
100.8
30.1
45.6

92.9
91.7
92.8
28.8
44.1

87.4
86.5
85.9
27.6
42.0

-0.6
-0.9
0.7
-0.7
-0.7

1.1
1.0
1.1
0.1
0.3

-1.0
-1.2
-1.0
-0.5
-0.2

-1.4
-1.3
-1.6
-0.9
-0.8

0.56
2.33
2.14
2.12
1.70
2.91

0.53
2.26
2.03
1.98
1.63
2.89

0.48
2.21
1.91
1.93
1.55
2.90

0.39
2.14
1.79
1.92
1.51
2.91

0.34
2.05
1.59
1.92
1.44
2.82

0.33
2.00
1.52
1.88
1.34
2.79

0.31
1.95
1.52
1.82
1.24
2.75

0.25
1.90
1.44
1.79
1.18
2.72

0.19
1.86
1.42
1.75
1.12
2.69

-1.4
-0.5
-1.1
-0.9
-0.9
0.0

-3.4
-0.7
-1.8
0.0
-0.7
-0.3

-1.1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-1.5
-0.3

-4.6
-0.5
-0.7
-0.4
-1.1
-0.2

4.9
0.3

5.6
0.9

7.5
3.9

8.5
5.2

10.1
7.1

11.5
8.2

12.5
9.1

270016
0
27603
85749
105453
1604
44328
563
18
4698

296786
0
46304
45284
152542
8901
36061
2344
31
5320

300873
0
48896
9789
177441
13003
38369
6138
1711
5526

331620
0
55517
15697
186399
14733
38468
11685
3594
5526

373488
13681
59526
14001
201434
15873
38710
18465
6058
5741

405533
54580
56696
14836
177090
20134
38707
26909
9620
6962

434222
107502
53197
7176
152004
23807
38992
30600
12762
8183

1.1

2.2

5.9
-19.5
5.3
23.3
-1.4
27.0
57.7
1.6

2.0
3.6
1.3
2.0
0.1
11.6
13.5
0.4

1.5
22.9
-1.1
-6.5
-2.8
4.1
0.1
5.2
7.7
3.6

67747
0
13784
13212
363
209
0
53963
3956
0
8719
23805
20261
588
0
590

81560
0
19213
17095
1635
483
0
62347
5817
0
8816
34917
16623
1322
0
671

96738
0
22856
17095
4507
1254
0
73882
7500
0
9772
50453
10546
2440
0
671

100125
0
27907
17440
7942
2524
0
72218
8571
0
11776
50201
6221
3349
0
671

102164
1579
33428
17440
12154
3834
0
67157
8828
460
10056
48289
3706
4435
0
671

113381
6301
39797
17440
16746
5611
0
67283
9536
460
9899
46701
4017
5871
0
795

125226
12410
43570
17440
19008
7122
0
69245
10528
1207
10816
46166
4086
7243
0
934

3.6

0.5

5.2
2.6
28.6
19.6

3.9
0.2
10.4
11.8

3.2
6.6

-0.9
1.6

1.1
7.8
-6.3
15.3

0.3
-0.4
-9.9
6.2

0.3
1.8
10.1
0.7
-0.4
1.0
5.0

1.3

0.0

3.4

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

43.3

39.7

34.3

36.5

40.1

39.2

37.8

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

40.5
9.1
0.0
19.0
0.0
19.0

40.6
9.7
0.0
17.7
0.0
17.7

41.9
13.3
0.0
21.5
0.0
21.5

43.0
14.6
0.0
22.3
0.0
22.3

44.0
14.4
1.3
26.4
3.7
22.7

42.4
14.1
1.2
38.7
13.5
25.2

41.5
14.3
2.9
51.1
24.8
26.3

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

2.1
22.9
2.7
0.0
4.6
6.4

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

739.1
84.0
582.7
48.9
18.4
5.1

842.8
87.1
674.6
51.9
24.3
4.9

980.7
93.6
793.5
55.2
33.5
5.0

968.1
101.2
763.0
56.5
42.7
4.7

1001.0
103.7
788.1
55.7
48.6
4.8

1056.7
106.6
832.3
56.8
56.1
4.9

1102.3
109.4
862.5
60.5
64.8
5.1

1147.5
112.3
891.2
64.9
73.8
5.3

1191.1
114.7
919.5
69.5
81.9
5.5

2.9
1.1
3.1
1.2
6.2
-0.4

0.2
1.0
-0.1
0.1
3.8
-0.3

1.0
0.5
0.9
0.8
2.9
0.5

0.8
0.5
0.6
1.4
2.4
0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

180.7
125.5
19.4
35.8

231.6
174.4
21.7
35.4

237.6
184.7
22.8
30.2

262.6
211.8
22.8
28.0

235.8
184.0
24.6
27.2

257.2
202.7
25.7
28.8

273.9
217.0
26.9
30.1

291.8
232.6
27.7
31.5

311.9
250.6
28.5
32.9

2.8
3.9
1.7
-1.7

-0.1
0.0
0.7
-1.0

1.5
1.7
0.9
1.0

1.3
1.5
0.6
0.9

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

33514
739
21620
8154
739
1872
391

37741
706
23735
9612
821
2418
450

41388
793
25970
10097
835
3491
203

43782
932
26093
11738
908
3863
249

42558
945
25971
10175
931
4288
248

44612
942
26689
11168
920
4638
257

45626
920
26885
11718
898
4939
265

45966
895
26620
12104
882
5191
274

45916
867
26248
12382
842
5295
283

2.1
0.7
1.8
2.2
1.2
6.4
-6.3

0.3
1.8
0.0
0.1
1.1
2.1
2.0

0.7
-0.3
0.3
1.4
-0.4
1.4
0.7

0.1
-0.6
-0.2
0.6
-0.6
0.7
0.7

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

95

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Latvia: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

1124
61
1
0
0
1062
387
675
0
0
0

1432
78
0
0
0
1354
253
1101
0
0
0

1409
16
0
0
0
1393
242
1150
0
0
0

1870
3
10
0
0
1858
286
1568
4
0
0

1914
1
0
0
0
1913
248
1651
14
0
0

2208
1
0
0
0
2206
250
1918
37
1
0

2311
1
0
0
0
2310
252
2004
51
2
0

2363
1
0
0
0
2363
255
2035
70
3
0

2396
1
0
0
0
2395
257
2048
85
5
0

2.3
-12.3

3.1
-21.8

1.9
-1.9

0.4
-2.7

2.8
-4.6
5.5

3.2
0.2
3.7
44.4

1.9
0.2
2.0
14.2
25.2
2.1

0.4
0.2
0.2
5.3
7.7
1.6

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

7468
627
3972
1
3971
2561
308

3366
170
2094
2
2092
999
194

2245
63
1116
94
1022
1113
154

2994
77
1676
4
1672
1434
185

3146
53
1938
1
1937
1415
121

3295
43
2183
1
2181
1434
43

3296
36
2183
1
2182
1457
20

3235
24
2166
1
2165
1391
21

3197
21
2135
1
2134
1417
20

-11.3
-20.5
-11.9
55.9
-12.7
-8.0
-6.7

3.4
-1.8
5.7
-35.0
6.6
2.4
-2.3

0.5
-3.7
1.2
1.2
1.2
0.3
-16.4

-0.3
-5.3
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
-0.3
-0.2

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

7931
711
3487
2380
0
308
1045

4628
273
1893
1010
0
194
1258

3746
135
1175
1092
0
154
1191

4491
82
1382
1358
0
185
1485

4747
54
1625
1415
0
121
1532

5158
44
1838
1434
0
43
1799

5249
37
1826
1457
0
20
1909

5232
24
1801
1391
0
21
1996

5221
22
1763
1417
0
20
1999

-7.2
-15.3
-10.3
-7.5

2.4
-8.7
3.3
2.6

1.0
-3.6
1.2
0.3

-0.1
-5.2
-0.4
-0.3

-6.7
1.3

-2.3
2.5

-16.4
2.2

-0.2
0.5

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

9.0
44.0
30.0
0.0
13.2

5.9
40.9
21.8
0.0
27.2

3.6
31.4
29.2
0.0
31.8

1.8
30.8
30.2
0.0
33.1

1.1
34.2
29.8
0.0
32.3

0.9
35.6
27.8
0.0
34.9

0.7
34.8
27.8
0.0
36.4

0.5
34.4
26.6
0.0
38.1

0.4
33.8
27.1
0.0
38.3

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

6647
1445

3978
1428

4135
1148

4904
1027

5796
1066

7651
1156

8569
1200

9000
1193

9320
1142

-4.6
-2.3

3.4
-0.7

4.0
1.2

0.8
-0.5

887
20
177
690
0
0
0

592
65
242
286
0
0
0

513
47
77
388
0
0
0

576
0
13
541
21
0
0

752
0
11
641
100
0
0

966
0
14
702
250
0
0

1077
0
12
734
331
0
0

1154
0
10
695
449
0
0

1230
0
10
709
511
0
0

-5.3
9.2
-8.0
-5.6

3.9

3.7

1.3

-17.5
5.1

0.8
1.4
12.7

-2.0
-0.3
4.4

2570
1
0
2542
27

892
1
0
881
9

562
1
0
560
1

476
1
2
473
0

443
1
33
409
0

445
1
48
395
0

431
1
67
362
0

388
1
80
307
0

334
1
88
245
0

-14.1
0.0

-2.4
1.3

-14.0
-28.3

-3.1

-0.3
1.2
7.5
-1.2

-2.5
-0.6
2.7
-3.8

126

127

147

100

128

136

138

135

132

1.5

-1.4

0.7

-0.4

78

46

79

93

56

58

59

56

55

0.2

-3.5

0.7

-0.8

6389

3814

3239

4029

4161

4459

4513

4504

4487

-6.6

2.5

0.8

-0.1

1980
712
1267
1586
1727
1097

692
308
384
1603
806
714

573
224
349
1327
592
747

705
287
419
1514
743
1066

654
259
396
1505
705
1297

656
236
420
1552
747
1504

639
217
422
1571
751
1551

619
202
417
1565
748
1572

623
195
428
1548
746
1571

-11.7
-10.9
-12.1
-1.8
-10.1
-3.8

1.3
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.8
5.7

-0.2
-1.7
0.6
0.4
0.6
1.8

-0.3
-1.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.1

316
2062
672
711
2013
616
0

124
1157
366
381
905
881
0

57
1057
329
382
590
824
0

73
1331
508
490
598
1028
0

46
1550
491
505
542
1027
0

37
1751
478
577
514
1102
0

31
1740
503
630
494
1115
0

18
1720
532
669
501
1062
0

18
1684
565
700
494
1026
0

-15.7
-6.5
-6.9
-6.0
-11.5
3.0

-2.1
3.9
4.1
2.8
-0.9
2.2

-4.0
1.2
0.2
2.2
-0.9
0.8
12.6

-5.5
-0.3
1.2
1.1
0.0
-0.8
3.6

1178

1387

1457

1671

1757

1815

1810

10.0
6.7
2.4
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.7
2.2
0.2
3.1

11.4
3.0
7.6
2.1
0.1
1.1
0.4
0.8
3.1
0.3
3.5

11.6
3.0
8.2
2.2
0.1
1.0
0.5
0.7
3.7
0.3
3.2

12.2
3.1
8.9
2.2
0.1
1.0
0.5
0.7
4.3
0.3
3.0

12.0
3.1
8.8
2.2
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.6
4.4
0.3
2.9

11.8
3.0
8.6
2.0
0.1
0.9
0.6
0.6
4.4
0.3
3.0

11.7
3.0
8.5
2.0
0.1
0.8
0.8
0.6
4.3
0.3
3.0

37.0

42.4

43.3

45.2

44.7

44.0

43.6

Annual % Change

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

26.9
18.8
9.7
0.1
2.5
1.2
2.1
3.2
0.6
7.5
100.0

8.8
3.9
0.1
1.3
0.5
0.9
2.1
0.2

2.1

1.9

0.3

-9.5

1.6

-9.9
-13.1
5.0
-9.5
-13.3
-10.8
-3.7
-8.5
-8.6

2.1
-0.9
-10.3
1.0
4.7
1.1
5.6
1.4
0.3

0.3
0.5
0.7
0.3
2.5
-1.2
2.2
-1.4
1.6
0.3
-0.8

-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-1.2
-1.1
-1.5
3.0
-1.0
-0.2
-0.4
0.2

Source: PRIMES

96

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Latvia: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

2.668
12.5
632.3
2.37
88.9

2.501
6.8
684.6
1.91
70.5

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

2.382
8.8
426.7
1.78
59.8

2.306
13.0
345.2
1.70
63.0

2.247
12.9
367.9
1.73
62.2

2.200
15.4
334.2
1.72
59.9

2.151
17.4
301.4
1.69
58.8

2.095
19.2
272.8
1.64
57.8

2.033
21.0
248.4
1.63
57.2

1.8
20.8

2.7
21.0

3.1
23.8

4.0
25.9

5.0
28.5

5.6
29.4

6.0
28.3

-1.1
-3.5
-3.9
-2.9

-0.6
3.9
-1.5
-0.2

-0.4
3.0
-2.0
-0.3

-0.6
1.9
-1.9
-0.3

5.3

4.9

1.9

157.6
84.9
322.8
19.6
27.8

153.2
156.2
180.2
37.3
24.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
26.2
19.0

84.9
75.0
84.3
26.1
19.6

84.4
80.6
80.7
27.0
24.8

76.9
67.8
69.1
27.2
24.8

71.4
58.8
61.0
27.0
23.1

66.9
52.6
54.4
26.6
21.4

63.1
47.0
49.2
25.5
19.9

-4.4
1.7
-11.1
2.9
-3.7

-1.7
-2.1
-2.1
0.3
2.7

-1.7
-3.1
-2.8
0.0
-0.7

-1.2
-2.2
-2.1
-0.6
-1.5

0.28
1.41
1.28
0.76
1.21
2.90

0.23
1.26
1.92
0.33
1.12
2.89

0.18
1.26
1.63
0.22
1.13
2.92

0.16
1.35
1.52
0.28
1.09
2.95

0.15
1.44
1.57
0.30
1.06
2.89

0.15
1.46
1.50
0.32
0.96
2.87

0.14
1.44
1.42
0.36
0.86
2.83

0.12
1.44
1.39
0.41
0.81
2.78

0.12
1.43
1.25
0.49
0.79
2.74

-4.3
-1.2
2.4
-11.7
-0.7
0.1

-1.6
1.4
-0.3
3.4
-0.6
-0.1

-1.0
0.0
-1.0
1.8
-2.0
-0.2

-1.5
-0.1
-1.2
3.1
-0.9
-0.3

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

33.7
0.7

32.6
0.7

33.4
3.1

35.9
4.0

37.4
5.5

38.7
7.1

38.9
8.5

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

4135
0
78
107
1128
0
2818
4
0
0

4904
0
0
26
1465
42
3324
47
0
0

5796
0
0
45
2342
368
2881
158
1
0

7651
0
0
52
3303
949
2911
432
5
0

8569
0
0
47
3729
1261
2931
594
8
0

9000
0
0
38
3548
1630
2960
813
12
0

9320
0
0
34
3428
1861
2992
991
14
0

3.4

4.0

0.8

-8.2
7.6

0.4
4.8
13.1
0.2
14.2
24.5

-3.2
-0.8
4.0
0.2
5.3
5.8

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

2079
0
1499
1497
2
0
0
581
354
0
29
449
91
11
0
0

2171
0
1544
1518
26
0
0
627
386
0
0
548
53
26
0
0

2359
0
1616
1520
94
2
0
743
441
0
0
608
54
81
0
0

2856
0
1777
1522
250
5
0
1079
449
0
0
899
54
126
0
0

2902
0
1868
1525
334
9
0
1034
478
0
0
809
54
172
0
0

3068
0
1983
1529
441
13
0
1085
514
0
0
809
54
222
0
0

3110
0
2071
1532
524
15
0
1039
467
0
0
716
47
276
0
0

1.3

2.1

0.7

0.8
0.2
46.9

1.5
0.0
13.6
15.6

1.0
0.0
4.6
5.8

2.5
2.2

3.4
0.8

0.0
-0.2

3.1
-5.1
22.2

2.9
0.1
7.8

-1.2
-1.3
4.8

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

21.8

24.8

27.0

29.7

32.8

32.5

33.3

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

22.0
39.8
0.0
68.3
0.0
68.3

22.9
33.1
0.0
69.6
0.0
69.6

31.5
38.0
0.0
58.8
0.0
58.8

38.3
30.0
0.0
56.2
0.0
56.2

40.2
29.0
0.0
55.9
0.0
55.9

38.9
30.0
0.0
60.2
0.0
60.2

37.2
25.9
0.0
62.9
0.0
62.9

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

0.2
44.4

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

21.1
5.9
6.6
6.1
2.5
0.2

11.4
1.8
7.7
1.7
0.2
0.0

15.4
2.3
11.8
1.0
0.3
0.0

19.7
2.9
14.8
1.2
0.8
0.0

21.5
2.5
16.6
1.2
1.2
0.0

24.6
2.7
19.0
1.3
1.7
0.0

26.1
2.9
19.6
1.5
2.2
0.0

27.4
3.0
19.9
1.5
3.0
0.0

28.7
3.2
20.1
1.6
3.8
0.0

-3.1
-8.7
6.0
-16.7
-18.7

3.4
0.8
3.5
2.0
14.9

1.9
1.2
1.7
1.9
6.1

0.9
1.2
0.3
1.1
5.3

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

24.5
5.9
18.5
0.2

11.6
1.8
9.8
0.0

18.1
4.8
13.3
0.0

28.2
8.4
19.8
0.0

28.8
11.6
17.2
0.0

33.6
13.7
19.8
0.0

36.6
14.5
22.1
0.0

39.4
15.2
24.2
0.0

42.3
15.8
26.5
0.0

-3.0
-2.0
-3.3

4.8
9.3
2.6

2.4
2.2
2.6

1.4
0.9
1.8

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

1097
46
242
512
189
73
35

714
15
378
205
90
26
0

747
17
356
270
76
27
0

1066
21
433
460
94
59
0

1297
18
476
637
81
85
0

1504
19
541
746
90
108
0

1551
19
548
761
88
135
0

1572
20
544
783
60
164
0

1571
21
510
801
42
198
0

-3.8
-9.3
4.0
-6.2
-8.7
-9.6

5.7
0.6
2.9
9.0
0.6
12.2

1.8
0.5
1.4
1.8
0.9
4.8

0.1
0.9
-0.7
0.5
-7.1
3.9

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

97

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Lithuania: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

4740
14
12
0
4394
321
36
285
0
0
0

3695
15
130
0
3050
501
32
469
0
0
0

3188
12
349
0
2172
656
29
627
0
0
0

3702
20
240
0
2666
776
39
734
0
0
3

1010
3
155
0
0
851
36
801
14
0
0

1250
4
130
0
0
1116
37
1050
29
1
0

2996
3
100
0
1572
1321
39
1231
48
3
0

4789
2
85
0
3099
1602
39
1493
64
5
0

5027
2
70
0
3099
1856
40
1730
77
9
0

-3.9
-1.8
40.0

-10.9
-11.7
-7.8

11.5
-0.3
-4.3

5.3
-6.6
-3.5

-6.8
7.4
-2.0
8.2

2.6
2.1
2.5

4.5
0.7
4.4
13.3
21.7
2.0

7.0
3.5
0.4
3.5
4.7
12.7
0.4

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

11688
758
7281
9560
-2279
4678
-1030

5650
157
3693
3619
74
2029
-230

4343
87
2313
4846
-2533
2065
-115

5120
190
2700
9093
-6393
2492
-255

6554
116
2531
8831
-6301
3558
366

7019
100
2839
9812
-6973
3695
412

6534
92
2940
10105
-7165
3571
-31

5795
75
3000
10279
-7279
3149
-372

5573
63
3023
10328
-7305
2939
-361

-9.4
-19.5
-10.8
-6.6

4.2
2.9
0.9
6.2

0.0
-2.3
1.5
1.4

-1.6
-3.6
0.3
0.2

-7.9

5.6

0.0

-1.9

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

16059
797
6899
4678
4394
-1030
320

8672
246
3085
2029
3050
-230
493

7070
98
2203
2064
2172
-115
649

8616
201
2769
2476
2666
-255
758

7408
119
2530
3558
0
366
836

8098
103
2798
3695
0
412
1089

9354
95
2864
3571
1572
-31
1283

10405
77
2906
3149
3099
-372
1545

10420
65
2913
2939
3099
-361
1765

-7.9
-18.9
-10.8
-7.9
-6.8

0.5
2.0
1.4
5.6

2.4
-2.3
1.2
0.0

1.1
-3.7
0.2
-1.9
7.0

7.3

2.6

4.4

3.2

5.0
43.0
29.1
27.4
2.0

2.8
35.6
23.4
35.2
5.7

1.4
31.2
29.2
30.7
9.2

2.3
32.1
28.7
30.9
8.8

1.6
34.1
48.0
0.0
11.3

1.3
34.6
45.6
0.0
13.4

1.0
30.6
38.2
16.8
13.7

0.7
27.9
30.3
29.8
14.8

0.6
28.0
28.2
29.7
16.9

28400
3959

13518
4152

11118
3075

14412
2782

6425
1760

7007
1758

13413
2079

18643
2375

18802
2293

-9.0
-2.5

-5.3
-5.4

7.6
1.7

3.4
1.0

2610
0
1067
1543
0
0
0

950
0
517
433
0
0
0

912
0
196
716
0
0
0

1221
0
172
1044
5
0
0

1923
0
72
1770
81
0
0

2059
0
64
1829
165
0
0

2035
0
57
1714
264
0
0

1717
0
40
1357
321
0
0

1770
0
73
1349
347
0
0

-10.0

7.7

0.6

-1.4

-15.6
-7.4

-9.5
9.5

-2.4
-0.3
12.5

2.6
-2.4
2.8

11418
9591
0
1819
8

4482
3402
0
1074
6

5762
5105
0
653
4

9984
9458
3
519
4

9517
8936
11
567
3

10570
9912
36
620
2

10893
10191
81
618
2

11071
10357
101
613
1

11134
10395
111
626
1

-6.6
-6.1

5.1
5.8

-9.7
-7.0

-1.4
-4.4

1.4
1.3
21.7
0.9
-2.3

0.2
0.2
3.2
0.1
-7.1

Energy Branch Consumption

996

600

670

958

849

913

982

1045

1036

-3.9

2.4

1.5

0.5

Non-Energy Uses

864

544

657

795

1007

1102

1100

1092

1073

-2.7

4.4

0.9

-0.3

9679

4592

3740

4465

4635

5145

5395

5580

5640

-9.1

2.2

1.5

0.4

3327
1670
1657
1843
2512
1996

1017
473
544
1641
894
1040

780
361
419
1342
566
1051

995
442
552
1384
678
1408

973
436
537
1365
679
1618

1078
471
607
1488
727
1853

1099
465
633
1552
741
2004

1120
473
647
1556
747
2158

1107
469
638
1573
748
2212

-13.5
-14.2
-12.8
-3.1
-13.8
-6.2

2.2
1.9
2.5
0.2
1.8
4.4

1.2
0.7
1.7
1.3
0.9
2.2

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.0

748
4064
1483
1033
2078
272
0

225
1670
510
546
1193
448
0

87
1352
363
531
828
579
0

190
1610
503
682
905
574
0

116
1793
405
700
1080
541
0

99
2025
454
791
1204
572
0

91
2126
469
856
1275
576
0

74
2247
472
925
1229
632
0

62
2280
484
958
1306
550
0

-19.4
-10.4
-13.1
-6.4
-8.8
7.9

2.9
2.9
1.1
2.8
2.7
-0.7

-2.3
1.7
1.5
2.0
1.7
0.6
12.5

-3.8
0.7
0.3
1.1
0.2
-0.5
0.3

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

48.8
32.4
12.0
1.6
6.1
2.3
4.5
5.8
3.5
12.9
100.0

13.5
5.6
0.8
1.7
0.8
1.5
3.0
1.5

642

727

770

893

988

1082

1223

18.9
10.2
3.9
1.1
1.1
0.5
0.5
3.1
1.6
7.1

22.5
10.1
12.5
3.9
1.9
1.3
0.6
0.6
4.1
1.7
8.3

23.7
11.1
13.6
5.3
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.5
4.7
1.9
8.3

22.9
10.0
14.3
5.6
1.3
0.9
0.7
0.5
5.3
2.1
6.4

22.7
9.8
14.2
5.3
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.5
5.6
2.2
6.3

21.6
8.8
13.3
4.4
0.9
0.9
0.7
0.4
6.0
2.3
6.0

21.2
8.4
12.8
4.0
0.7
0.9
0.7
0.4
6.1
2.4
6.0

38.8

46.1

48.6

46.8

46.4

44.3

43.4

1.8

2.5

2.2

-9.0

2.3

-10.9
-10.6
-3.5
-15.9
-13.6
-19.8
-6.2
-7.7
-5.8

2.8
3.1
3.1
-2.0
1.1
-0.2
4.4
1.9
1.5

-0.4
-1.3
0.5
0.0
-2.8
0.7
1.4
-0.8
1.8
1.6
-2.7

-0.7
-1.5
-1.0
-2.7
-5.4
-0.8
-0.2
-0.7
0.8
0.8
-0.4

Source: PRIMES

98

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Lithuania: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

3.694
19.4
829.6
2.02
72.4

3.643
11.4
761.0
1.55
64.1

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

3.512
14.3
493.0
1.45
60.6

3.425
20.9
412.8
1.45
58.5

3.337
21.5
345.3
1.83
86.7

3.275
26.3
308.5
1.77
84.9

3.220
30.3
308.2
1.52
68.6

3.158
33.5
310.1
1.28
54.8

3.083
36.3
287.2
1.23
52.6

2.3
16.1

3.4
16.2

3.9
18.0

5.0
19.0

6.5
21.5

7.7
23.0

8.5
23.4

-0.5
-3.0
-5.1
-3.3

-0.5
4.1
-3.5
2.4

-0.4
3.5
-1.1
-1.9

-0.4
1.8
-0.7
-2.1

5.3

5.4

2.7

258.4
103.1
452.0
30.8
46.9

180.8
158.3
203.3
26.6
37.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
20.7
25.8

78.3
67.4
87.1
18.0
24.2

68.7
68.6
86.4
18.1
24.9

62.1
61.1
75.5
18.6
24.9

55.8
56.2
65.9
20.3
24.2

53.5
51.4
58.8
22.8
23.5

51.0
48.1
53.3
23.5
22.8

-9.1
-0.3
-14.0
-3.9
-5.8

-3.7
-3.7
-1.5
-1.3
-0.3

-2.1
-2.0
-2.7
1.2
-0.3

-0.9
-1.5
-2.1
1.5
-0.6

0.21
1.94
1.83
1.27
1.80
2.93

0.17
1.54
1.69
0.48
1.73
2.91

0.16
1.39
1.37
0.40
0.88
2.93

0.14
1.49
1.35
0.46
0.85
2.93

0.23
1.44
0.90
0.44
0.72
2.91

0.22
1.44
0.87
0.45
0.66
2.88

0.16
1.43
0.86
0.45
0.61
2.81

0.12
1.44
0.80
0.44
0.57
2.79

0.11
1.43
0.78
0.43
0.57
2.77

-2.8
-3.3
-2.8
-10.8
-6.9
0.0

3.6
0.4
-4.1
0.9
-2.0
-0.1

-3.4
-0.1
-0.5
0.1
-1.6
-0.4

-4.2
0.0
-0.9
-0.3
-0.8
-0.2

15.1
0.0

14.8
0.3

15.4
0.9

16.2
2.5

17.1
5.2

18.1
6.0

20.3
6.6

11118
8417
0
405
1957
0
339
0
0
0

14412
10335
0
476
3136
12
451
2
0
0

6425
0
0
207
5422
212
419
162
2
0

7007
0
0
189
5602
451
425
336
4
0

13413
6563
0
168
4861
794
449
564
15
0

18643
13127
0
102
3272
904
457
745
34
0

18802
13127
0
179
3188
893
466
890
60
0

-5.3

7.6

3.4
7.2

-6.5
10.7

-2.1
-1.1
14.1
0.7
13.3
24.3

0.6
-4.1
1.2
0.4
4.7
14.7

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

4586
2291
100
100
0
0
0
2196
873
0
0
1661
528
7
0
0

3692
1200
115
114
1
0
0
2377
824
0
0
2057
303
17
0
0

2756
0
299
122
175
2
0
2457
873
0
0
2124
315
18
0
0

3020
0
493
123
365
5
0
2527
930
0
0
2163
327
38
0
0

4131
758
779
148
615
16
0
2595
999
0
0
2184
332
78
0
0

4850
1515
1006
155
815
36
0
2329
916
0
0
2017
203
110
0
0

4984
1515
1196
159
975
62
0
2273
997
0
0
2017
96
160
0
0

-5.0

4.1

11.6
2.0

10.0
1.9
13.4
22.9

1.9
7.2
4.4
0.7
4.7
14.7

1.1
0.0

0.5
1.4

-1.3
0.0

2.5
-5.0
9.6

0.3
0.5
16.2

-0.8
-11.6
7.4

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

23.5

40.2

24.9

25.2

35.3

41.7

41.0

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

22.3
18.3
0.0
78.8
75.7
3.0

25.5
17.8
0.0
74.9
71.7
3.2

26.1
62.5
0.0
12.4
0.0
12.4

26.1
59.5
0.0
17.4
0.0
17.4

24.6
32.6
0.0
62.5
48.9
13.6

21.4
20.4
0.0
81.9
70.4
11.5

20.7
21.9
0.0
82.1
69.8
12.3

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

2.1

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

24.1
7.9
11.3
3.6
1.0
0.2

21.7
4.2
16.2
1.1
0.2
0.0

30.0
2.8
26.3
0.6
0.3
0.1

40.1
3.7
35.1
0.4
0.8
0.1

44.9
3.6
39.8
0.4
1.0
0.1

49.1
3.9
43.2
0.4
1.4
0.1

49.9
4.1
43.3
0.5
1.9
0.1

50.1
4.2
42.8
0.5
2.5
0.1

50.4
4.2
42.2
0.5
3.3
0.1

2.2
-10.0
8.8
-16.3
-10.3
-12.8

4.1
2.7
4.2
-4.0
12.4
0.2

1.1
1.4
0.9
1.6
6.0
0.8

0.1
0.3
-0.3
1.3
5.8
0.6

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

26.8
7.3
19.3
0.2

12.4
5.2
7.2
0.0

16.7
7.8
8.9
0.0

28.4
15.9
12.5
0.0

32.3
19.0
13.4
0.0

37.8
22.5
15.3
0.0

40.9
24.1
16.8
0.0

43.1
25.1
18.1
0.0

45.0
25.8
19.3
0.0

-4.6
0.6
-7.4

6.8
9.3
4.1

2.4
2.4
2.3

1.0
0.7
1.4

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

1996
46
539
1139
133
135
5

1040
25
504
383
87
41
1

1051
16
572
358
76
27
3

1408
21
648
608
79
46
5

1618
21
725
723
84
60
5

1853
23
804
850
94
77
5

2004
24
886
892
99
96
5

2158
25
993
913
103
118
6

2212
26
1007
922
108
144
6

-6.2
-9.8
0.6
-10.9
-5.5
-14.9
-5.0

4.4
2.5
2.4
7.3
1.0
8.5
5.3

2.2
1.6
2.0
2.1
1.7
4.8
0.7

1.0
0.5
1.3
0.3
0.9
4.1
0.4

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

99

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Luxembourg: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

47
0
0
0
0
47
6
41
0
0
0

47
0
0
0
0
47
7
39
0
0
0

57
0
0
0
0
57
10
44
2
0
0

74
0
0
0
0
74
8
59
5
2
0

96
0
0
0
0
96
8
76
6
6
0

149
0
0
0
0
149
7
103
13
26
0

182
0
0
0
0
182
8
119
20
36
0

203
0
0
0
0
203
8
123
23
49
0

215
0
0
0
0
215
8
126
27
55
0

1.9

5.5

6.6

1.7

1.9
5.8
0.7

5.5
-2.9
5.6
10.8

6.6
0.2
4.5
11.8
19.7
0.3

1.7
0.2
0.6
3.0
4.3
0.5

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

3526
1134
1626
0
1626
430
336

3264
514
1763
0
1763
557
430

3630
125
2342
0
2342
670
492

4622
82
3081
0
3081
1179
280

4697
37
3067
0
3067
1250
318

5068
30
3271
0
3271
1372
327

5128
25
3208
0
3208
1489
300

5131
17
3118
0
3118
1599
274

5043
12
2972
0
2972
1645
284

0.3
-19.8
3.7

2.6
-11.6
2.7

0.9
-3.7
0.5

-0.2
-7.1
-0.8

3.7
4.6
3.9

2.7
6.4
-4.3

0.5
1.8
-0.6

-0.8
1.0
-0.6

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

3561
1134
1614
430
0
336
47

3342
514
1794
557
0
430
47

3637
125
2292
670
0
492
57

4714
82
3100
1179
0
280
74

4793
37
3067
1250
0
318
122

5218
30
3271
1372
0
327
218

5310
25
3208
1489
0
300
287

5334
17
3118
1599
0
274
326

5258
12
2972
1645
0
284
345

0.2
-19.8
3.6
4.6

2.8
-11.6
3.0
6.4

1.0
-3.7
0.5
1.8

-0.1
-7.1
-0.8
1.0

3.9
1.9

-4.3
8.0

-0.6
9.0

-0.6
1.9

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

31.9
45.3
12.1
0.0
1.3

15.4
53.7
16.7
0.0
1.4

3.4
63.0
18.4
0.0
1.6

1.7
65.8
25.0
0.0
1.6

0.8
64.0
26.1
0.0
2.5

0.6
62.7
26.3
0.0
4.2

0.5
60.4
28.0
0.0
5.4

0.3
58.5
30.0
0.0
6.1

0.2
56.5
31.3
0.0
6.6

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

627
410

498
497

433
439

3344
448

3485
545

4411
644

5303
707

6025
753

6163
780

-3.6
0.7

23.2
2.2

4.3
2.6

1.5
1.0

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

190
0
3
162
25
0
0

132
0
2
106
24
0
0

75
0
0
47
28
0
0

568
0
0
525
43
0
0

574
0
0
540
34
0
0

697
0
1
655
42
0
0

813
0
1
765
47
0
0

922
0
1
874
47
0
0

937
0
1
892
44
0
0

-8.8

22.5

3.5

1.4

-11.6
1.0

27.6
1.8

3.5
3.4

2.5
1.5
-0.6

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

378
0
0
0
378

144
0
0
0
144

0
0
0
0
0

1
0
1
0
0

55
0
55
0
0

117
0
117
0
0

163
0
163
0
0

182
0
182
0
0

188
0
188
0
0

11.5

1.4

11.5

1.4

Energy Branch Consumption

31

30

26

30

37

44

48

51

53

-1.8

3.8

2.7

0.8

Non-Energy Uses

20

23

14

20

22

27

29

31

33

-3.9

5.0

2.7

1.3

3335

3171

3558

4439

4491

4859

4904

4885

4805

0.7

2.4

0.9

-0.2

1729
1525
204
521
74
1010

1197
901
296
565
99
1311

958
506
453
598
118
1884

938
461
477
651
130
2721

899
431
468
676
137
2780

997
468
529
701
149
3012

1041
481
560
708
155
3000

1081
486
595
717
158
2929

1120
491
630
725
162
2798

-5.7
-10.5
8.3
1.4
4.7
6.4

-0.6
-1.6
0.3
1.2
1.5
4.0

1.5
1.1
1.8
0.5
1.3
0.8

0.7
0.2
1.2
0.2
0.4
-0.7

756
1587
622
355
0
15
0

369
1758
585
430
14
15
0

125
2276
623
491
27
16
0

82
3080
678
529
55
16
0

37
3044
710
571
59
70
0

30
3243
717
651
68
149
0

25
3178
724
696
76
206
1

17
3086
725
727
89
240
1

12
2937
752
747
98
259
1

-16.5
3.7
0.0
3.3

-11.6
3.0
1.3
1.5
8.1
16.0

-3.7
0.4
0.2
2.0
2.6
11.3
7.5

-7.1
-0.8
0.4
0.7
2.5
2.3
1.5

Annual % Change

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption

(B)

TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)


of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

13.1
10.7
0.7
0.0
5.7
1.3
0.0
3.0
1.6
0.9
100.0

8.7
0.4
0.0
3.1
1.3
0.0
3.9
1.0

32

41

109

203

271

311

331

10.5
8.9
0.1
0.0
1.7
1.4
0.1
5.6
0.7
0.9

14.3
4.0
12.4
1.2
0.0
1.5
1.4
0.1
8.2
0.8
1.1

14.1
3.8
12.3
1.3
0.0
1.3
1.4
0.1
8.2
0.7
1.1

15.1
4.2
13.1
1.5
0.0
1.4
1.4
0.1
8.7
0.8
1.2

15.2
4.5
13.2
1.8
0.0
1.4
1.4
0.1
8.6
0.8
1.1

15.1
4.7
13.1
2.0
0.0
1.4
1.3
0.1
8.3
0.8
1.1

14.7
4.6
12.8
2.1
0.0
1.5
1.3
0.1
7.9
0.8
1.1

80.2

109.1

107.6

115.0

115.6

115.1

112.1

0.4

13.2

9.5

2.0

-2.2

3.0

-1.8
-17.0

3.3
27.6

0.7
1.7
0.7
3.6

-0.3
0.2
-0.3
1.5

-11.5
1.1
17.3
6.5
-7.6
0.4

-2.5
0.2
-3.0
3.9
0.2
2.0

0.8
-0.4
0.3
0.4
1.5
0.1

0.4
-0.6
-1.3
-0.8
-0.4
-0.1

Source: PRIMES

100

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Luxembourg: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

0.379
13.6
262.3
2.99
99.0

0.406
18.8
177.4
2.62
97.7

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

0.434
25.4
143.4
2.44
99.8

0.461
30.2
155.9
2.64
98.0

0.494
32.6
147.1
2.56
98.0

0.523
40.5
128.7
2.52
97.1

0.551
47.3
112.2
2.49
96.6

0.579
53.4
99.9
2.46
96.2

0.607
59.4
88.5
2.43
95.9

2.7
10.8

3.7
12.3

3.9
11.9

4.7
11.5

5.7
12.0

6.3
11.8

6.4
10.8

1.3
6.5
-5.9
-2.0

1.3
2.5
0.3
0.5

1.1
3.8
-2.7
-0.3

1.0
2.3
-2.3
-0.2

3.5

3.8

1.2

259.7
125.3
103.2
119.7
92.1

159.1
116.2
111.6
125.6
84.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
136.5
102.9

93.6
100.4
91.5
150.7
156.5

86.3
98.1
88.9
143.3
154.7

78.9
81.0
77.8
131.7
151.2

72.4
69.7
69.0
119.4
146.2

68.5
62.5
62.0
107.2
139.2

65.6
56.6
57.1
96.4
128.0

-9.1
-2.2
-0.3
1.3
1.1

-1.5
-0.2
-1.2
0.5
4.2

-1.7
-3.4
-2.5
-1.8
-0.6

-1.0
-2.1
-1.9
-2.1
-1.3

1.13
2.98
3.28
2.45
0.21
2.96

0.59
2.63
2.58
2.39
0.35
2.96

0.15
2.46
1.74
2.37
0.65
2.97

0.31
2.52
1.63
2.21
0.48
3.00

0.30
2.45
1.45
2.14
0.41
2.95

0.29
2.39
1.41
2.03
0.40
2.90

0.29
2.33
1.36
1.96
0.37
2.85

0.29
2.27
1.32
1.88
0.34
2.83

0.29
2.22
1.31
1.81
0.32
2.81

-18.4
-1.9
-6.1
-0.3
12.0
0.1

7.4
-0.1
-1.8
-1.0
-4.4
-0.1

-0.5
-0.5
-0.7
-0.9
-1.0
-0.3

-0.1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
-1.7
-0.1

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

0.9
0.0

0.9
0.1

2.5
2.3

4.3
4.6

5.7
6.5

6.5
7.4

7.0
8.0

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

433
0
0
0
231
55
120
27
0
0

3344
0
0
0
3050
130
93
53
18
0

3485
0
0
0
3165
115
90
75
40
0

4411
0
0
3
3976
136
84
155
59
0

5303
0
0
3
4698
208
92
231
72
0

6025
0
0
4
5374
206
92
270
80
0

6163
0
0
4
5477
197
94
309
82
0

23.2

4.3

1.5

29.9
7.6
-2.9
10.8

4.0
6.1
0.2
11.8
6.1

2.5
1.5
-0.6
0.2
3.0
1.4

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

165
0
54
39
14
1
0
111
37
0
0
95
0
16
0
0

609
0
101
40
35
26
0
509
54
0
0
483
0
25
0
0

607
0
131
40
50
41
0
477
94
0
0
452
0
25
0
0

858
0
234
40
134
61
0
624
151
0
0
599
1
24
0
0

1048
0
300
40
186
74
0
749
185
0
0
719
1
28
0
0

1179
0
334
40
211
83
0
845
213
0
0
816
1
28
0
0

1233
0
358
40
232
86
0
875
226
0
0
845
1
28
0
0

13.9

5.6

1.6

9.3
0.2
13.5
45.1

8.7
0.0
14.1
6.1

1.8
0.1
2.3
1.4

15.7
9.8

4.6
7.0

1.6
2.0

16.8

4.8

4.5

1.3

1.6
1.0
0.0

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

28.0

62.2

63.9

57.1

56.2

56.8

55.6

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

32.7
52.7
0.0
46.7
0.0
46.7

48.1
12.6
0.0
8.8
0.0
8.8

49.2
16.3
0.0
9.2
0.0
9.2

50.7
18.9
0.0
9.8
0.0
9.8

51.9
18.0
0.0
11.4
0.0
11.4

52.1
18.4
0.0
10.7
0.0
10.7

52.1
19.3
0.0
11.1
0.0
11.1

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

5.2
0.5
4.0
0.2
0.5
0.0

6.2
0.5
4.8
0.3
0.5
0.0

7.3
0.6
5.7
0.3
0.6
0.0

8.1
0.8
6.5
0.3
0.6
0.0

8.6
0.9
6.7
0.3
0.7
0.0

9.5
0.9
7.4
0.4
0.8
0.0

9.8
1.0
7.5
0.4
1.0
0.0

10.2
1.0
7.7
0.4
1.1
0.0

10.7
1.1
8.0
0.4
1.2
0.0

3.4
2.6
3.6
4.8
2.2

1.6
3.3
1.6
-0.5
0.7

1.4
1.1
1.1
1.8
3.5

0.9
1.0
0.6
1.0
2.5

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

4.2
3.2
0.6
0.4

6.4
5.5
0.5
0.3

8.6
7.6
0.6
0.4

9.5
8.8
0.4
0.3

10.0
9.3
0.4
0.3

11.7
10.8
0.5
0.4

12.5
11.6
0.5
0.4

13.2
12.3
0.5
0.4

13.8
12.9
0.5
0.4

7.5
9.0
0.3
0.4

1.5
2.0
-4.1
-1.0

2.2
2.3
1.8
0.9

1.0
1.0
0.4
0.9

1010
10
483
364
13
131
9

1311
11
574
520
9
189
8

1884
13
662
866
15
320
7

2721
17
779
1479
9
431
6

2780
18
769
1540
10
438
6

3012
18
751
1750
11
476
6

3000
18
674
1815
11
477
6

2929
18
602
1820
10
472
6

2798
18
570
1752
10
441
7

6.4
2.3
3.2
9.1
2.0
9.3
-2.4

4.0
3.2
1.5
5.9
-4.5
3.2
-1.5

0.8
0.3
-1.3
1.7
0.8
0.9
0.7

-0.7
0.0
-1.7
-0.3
-0.5
-0.8
0.8

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

101

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Malta: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

5
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
0
4
0

25
0
0
0
0
25
0
3
3
19
0

40
0
0
0
0
40
0
4
9
27
0

55
0
0
0
0
55
0
5
19
30
0

66
0
0
0
0
66
0
5
28
33
0

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

612
0
612
0
612
0
0

891
0
891
0
891
0
0

822
0
822
0
822
0
0

958
0
958
0
958
0
0

911
0
911
0
911
0
0

808
0
662
0
662
143
0

793
0
617
0
617
149
22

777
0
537
0
537
211
24

761
0
485
0
485
242
26

3.0

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

582
0
582
0
0
0
0

809
0
809
0
0
0
0

773
0
773
0
0
0
0

958
0
958
0
0
0
0

916
0
911
0
0
0
5

833
0
662
143
0
0
28

833
0
617
149
0
22
45

832
0
537
211
0
24
60

827
0
485
242
0
26
73

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
100.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
99.5
0.0
0.0
0.5

0.0
79.5
17.1
0.0
3.4

0.0
74.1
17.9
0.0
5.4

0.0
64.6
25.3
0.0
7.2

0.0
58.7
29.3
0.0
8.9

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

1100
190

1632
373

1917
350

2240
396

2166
382

2269
369

2136
345

2186
310

2170
268

5.7
6.3

322
0
322
0
0
0
0

463
0
463
0
0
0
0

495
0
495
0
0
0
0

580
0
580
0
0
0
0

539
0
539
0
0
0
0

419
0
275
140
4
0
0

369
0
224
140
5
0
0

333
0
149
177
7
0
0

297
0
108
182
7
0
0

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0

3
0
3
0
0

3
0
3
0
0

4
0
4
0
0

6
0
6
0
0

Energy Branch Consumption

19

10

Non-Energy Uses

333

451

412

526

529

573

604

634

654

0
0
0
55
56
222

42
0
42
73
32
305

43
0
43
76
55
238

46
0
46
89
63
329

46
0
46
92
66
324

50
0
50
101
75
346

53
0
53
111
85
355

57
0
57
120
94
363

60
0
60
126
100
369

0
255
0
78
0
0
0

0
343
0
108
0
0
0

0
277
0
135
0
0
0

0
378
0
148
0
0
0

0
371
0
153
0
4
0

0
387
2
163
0
20
0

0
393
9
176
0
25
0

0
388
33
186
0
26
0

0
378
60
190
0
27
0

Annual % Change

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

24.5

5.1

24.5

5.1

50.7
19.8
0.1

2.8
11.4
2.2
-1.5

1.0

-1.4

-0.4

3.0

1.0

-3.8

-2.4

3.0

1.0

-3.8
133.0

-2.4
5.0
1.7

2.9

1.7

-0.9

-0.1

2.9

1.7

-3.8
133.0

-2.4
5.0

24.7

1.7
5.1

1.2
0.9

-0.1
-1.0

0.2
-2.5

4.4

0.9

-3.7

-2.1

4.4

0.9

-8.4

-7.1
2.7
3.0

23.0

5.3

24.8
3.3

5.4
3.4

2.5

-2.3

-1.7

-3.1

2.2

2.5

1.3

0.8

0.7

1.4

1.2

3.2
-0.2
0.7

0.7
2.0
1.9
3.1

1.4
1.9
2.5
0.9

1.2
1.2
1.6
0.4

0.9

3.0

5.6

1.3

0.6
79.7
1.4
3.3
19.9
9.5

-0.4
20.9
0.7
3.4
0.6
-0.3

3.1

1.6

3.0
4.4

-1.8

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

2.0
1.8
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.2
100.0

2.5
1.5
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.9
0.0

26

41

56

69

2.7
2.4
1.6
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.7
0.0
0.3

3.3
2.1
3.0
1.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.3

3.1
2.0
2.8
1.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.3

2.6
1.6
2.4
1.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.3

2.5
1.5
2.2
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.1
0.0
0.2

2.4
1.3
2.1
0.9
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.1
0.0
0.3

2.3
1.3
2.0
0.8
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.1
0.0
0.2

135.1

168.0

158.3

134.5

126.3

121.5

116.3

23.9

5.2

1.7
0.9

-2.2
-3.3
-2.3
-4.9

-0.8
-1.5
-0.9
-3.0

0.7

2.0
2.4
3.2

-0.4
2.6
0.8

1.7
4.3
0.2

3.4

0.6

-1.3

0.3

Source: PRIMES

102

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Malta: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

0.352
2.9
200.3
3.06
100.0

0.369
3.7
218.0
3.08
104.5

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

0.380
4.5
170.3
3.10
100.8

0.403
4.8
199.7
3.12
100.0

0.414
5.2
176.9
3.10
99.5

0.421
5.9
141.5
2.84
97.0

0.427
6.8
122.8
2.69
95.2

0.431
7.6
109.7
2.56
93.4

0.432
8.3
99.7
2.46
92.0

0.4
8.9

0.6
12.6

0.6
12.2

0.7
12.4

0.9
13.8

1.1
14.7

1.2
14.6

0.8
4.6
-1.6
0.1

0.8
1.3
0.4
0.0

0.3
2.7
-3.6
-1.4

0.1
2.0
-2.1
-0.9

4.5

4.0

2.6

-1.4
-4.5
-1.2
-3.0

2.3
0.6
0.1
2.1
2.1

-1.3
-1.0
-0.3
-1.5
-0.8

-0.7
-0.8
-0.4
-1.4
-0.5

-1.3
-1.3

-0.3
0.5

-4.8
-0.5

-3.2
-0.2

-4.9

0.0
0.5
0.1

-2.3
0.1
-0.1

0.4
2.6
-0.1

0.0
115.3
158.1
47.2
211.4

122.2
114.5
70.7
56.2
232.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
156.0

133.5
108.5
103.0
57.4
212.1

125.2
106.3
100.8
51.3
192.7

119.2
101.4
100.6
47.8
183.1

110.4
96.4
98.2
44.2
178.7

105.4
92.3
97.5
41.3
175.0

102.6
88.5
94.2
38.4
169.6

0.93
2.26

0.91
2.24
0.00
1.47
0.00
2.96

0.82
1.99
0.00
1.01
0.64
2.98

0.83
2.14
0.00
1.10
0.69
3.00

0.80
2.10
0.00
1.00
0.67
3.00

0.53
2.03
0.00
0.86
0.60
2.98

0.49
1.99
0.00
0.80
0.67
2.97

0.41
1.96
0.00
0.79
0.78
2.96

0.35
1.94
0.00
0.83
0.87
2.93

0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0

1.0
0.1

5.2
1.1

7.9
1.5

10.5
1.9

12.7
2.9

1917
0
0
1917
0
0
0
0
0
0

2240
0
0
2240
0
0
0
0
0
0

2166
0
0
2158
0
0
0
0
8
0

2269
0
0
1303
893
17
0
32
25
0

2136
0
0
1060
893
23
0
109
52
0

2186
0
0
701
1145
30
0
222
89
0

2170
0
0
503
1181
31
0
321
135
0

1.2

-0.1

0.2

1.2

-6.9

-7.2
2.8
3.0

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

484
0
0
0
0
0
0
484
0
0
0
0
484
0
0
0

544
0
0
0
0
0
0
544
0
0
0
0
544
0
0
0

550
0
5
0
0
5
0
545
0
0
0
0
545
0
0
0

836
0
31
0
15
16
0
805
0
0
0
124
678
2
0
0

654
0
80
0
46
34
0
574
0
0
0
124
447
3
0
0

757
0
147
0
89
58
0
609
0
0
0
160
446
4
0
0

828
0
213
0
125
88
0
615
0
0
0
165
446
4
0
0

1.3

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

42.5

44.9

43.0

29.8

35.9

32.0

29.1

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

33.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

33.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

34.4
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.4

45.4
0.0
0.0
3.2
0.0
3.2

46.0
0.0
0.0
8.6
0.0
8.6

48.5
0.0
0.0
15.6
0.0
15.6

49.6
0.0
0.0
22.4
0.0
22.4

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.66
0.00
2.97

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

0.0

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

21.1

11.4
9.9

1.7

2.4

31.9

10.3

21.1

10.6
9.9

1.2

0.5

0.7

1.2

-2.0

2.9
0.0
3.0

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

3.9
0.4
1.5
0.0
2.0
0.0

4.4
0.4
1.8
0.0
2.2
0.0

4.8
0.5
1.9
0.0
2.5
0.0

4.8
0.5
2.1
0.0
2.3
0.0

5.4
0.5
2.2
0.0
2.7
0.0

6.2
0.5
2.2
0.0
3.4
0.0

6.8
0.5
2.2
0.0
4.0
0.0

7.4
0.6
2.2
0.0
4.7
0.0

8.1
0.6
2.2
0.0
5.3
0.0

1.9
1.2
1.9

1.2
1.2
1.7

2.4
0.5
0.1

1.7
0.2
-0.1

2.1

0.8

4.2

2.8

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0

4.1
4.1

0.0
0.0

1.9
1.9

1.3
1.3

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

222
9
105
35
0
72
0

305
9
164
58
0
74
0

238
7
105
39
0
86
0

329
10
175
53
0
90
0

324
11
164
48
0
101
0

346
11
160
51
0
124
0

355
10
151
54
0
140
0

363
10
142
57
0
154
0

369
10
135
58
0
165
0

0.7
-1.9
0.0
1.0

3.1
3.7
4.6
2.1

0.9
-0.1
-0.9
1.2

0.4
-0.7
-1.1
0.8

1.8

1.6

3.3

1.7

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

103

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Netherlands: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

60563
0
4114
54613
881
956
7
942
5
2
0

66301
0
3625
60456
1036
1184
8
1144
27
5
0

57430
0
2472
51904
1013
2040
12
1945
71
12
0

61899
0
2346
56265
1031
2257
8
2050
178
22
0

60223
2
1240
54900
1017
3064
8
2360
616
80
0

57815
2
530
51980
1023
4280
9
2754
1324
155
37

55655
2
0
49180
1024
5449
9
2926
2191
238
86

47328
1
0
40100
1186
6041
9
3069
2463
345
155

41544
3
0
32670
2217
6654
9
3253
2669
457
267

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

18273
9574
31704
48979
-17275
-23799
792

17142
8921
33609
60332
-26723
-26370
980

35442
8222
42777
62222
-19446
-17191
1626

38390
8313
48868
62643
-13775
-20941
1573

34250
7268
46283
60536
-14252
-21488
1389

37860
9105
47209
61512
-14304
-19798
325

38982
9320
46960
61195
-14235
-18415
-89

46506
10106
45775
59946
-14171
-10559
-176

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

67955
9206
25308
30810
881
792
959

74528
9098
28142
34085
1036
980
1187

77042
8035
29610
34711
1013
1626
2048

82479
8190
33527
35324
1031
1573
2834

78384
7269
31434
33412
1017
1389
3862

79420
9106
31484
32182
1023
325
5298

78480
9322
30802
30765
1024
-89
6656

13.5
37.2
45.3
1.3
1.4

12.2
37.8
45.7
1.4
1.6

10.4
38.4
45.1
1.3
2.7

9.9
40.6
42.8
1.3
3.4

9.3
40.1
42.6
1.3
4.9

11.5
39.6
40.5
1.3
6.7

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

71824
5556

81054
6855

89599
7754

100235
8521

104437
8805

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

14646
5698
727
7651
570
0
0

17053
5900
917
9466
770
0
0

18277
5114
671
11071
1421
0
0

19614
4958
691
11913
2052
0
0

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

73390
69876
0
0
3514

84833
81133
0
11
3689

86509
83485
0
153
2870

91301
87803
0
436
3062

Energy Branch Consumption

5462

6320

5600

6665

5810

5795

5797

Non-Energy Uses

9775

9892

10307

13031

12949

12826

12341

42876

47727

50174

51639

50669

50888

50282

12542
9531
3010
9938
10012
10385

12675
8686
3989
11152
11463
12436

13753
9823
3930
10333
12229
13858

14929
10639
4291
10101
11495
15114

14508
10042
4466
10171
11305
14685

14446
9948
4497
10359
11316
14767

1651
12851
21244
6322
439
370
0

1415
14721
22515
7143
1568
364
0

1295
16512
21008
8421
2558
380
0

1515
17406
20335
8989
2981
413
0

1137
16692
19322
9174
3675
668
1

1188
16595
18518
9825
3835
925
2

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-0.5

0.5

-0.8
0.5

-2.9
5.6

-5.0
-0.5
1.4
7.9
5.3
7.5
30.9
18.5

-6.7
0.6
0.0
4.2
-3.6
2.0
24.1
21.3

-1.1
0.1
5.9
0.0
2.2
13.5
11.6
129.9

-4.0
8.0
2.0
0.0
1.1
2.0
6.7
11.9

51212
9428
43950
58023
-14073
-3372
-196

6.8
-1.5
3.0
2.4

-0.3
-1.2
0.8
-0.3

1.3
2.5
0.1
0.1

2.8
0.1
-0.7
-0.5

7.5

-1.6

77471
10107
29412
29541
1186
-176
7401

75978
9430
27172
29298
2217
-196
8057

1.3
-1.4
1.6
1.2
1.4
7.5
7.9

0.2
-1.0
0.6
-0.4
0.0
-1.6
6.6

0.0
2.5
-0.2
-0.8
0.1

-0.3
0.1
-1.2
-0.5
8.0

5.6

1.9

11.9
39.2
39.2
1.3
8.5

13.0
38.0
38.1
1.5
9.6

12.4
35.8
38.6
2.9
10.6

126316
10706

138830
12902

145932
13952

150252
14193

2.2
3.4

1.5
1.3

2.9
3.9

0.8
1.0

19102
4760
594
11392
2356
0
0

21547
6675
588
11461
2787
37
0

22032
6936
571
11505
2934
86
0

22795
7788
718
10873
3262
155
0

22679
7171
630
11074
3538
267
0

2.2
-1.1
-0.8
3.8
9.6

0.4
-0.7
-1.2
0.3
5.2

1.4
3.8
-0.4
0.1
2.2

0.3
0.3
1.0
-0.4
1.9
11.9

84034
81008
256
494
2276

84457
81393
456
494
2114

82495
79366
605
494
2029

80777
77655
654
455
2014

78383
75347
680
388
1967

1.7
1.8

-0.3
-0.3

-2.0

12.4
-2.3

-0.2
-0.2
9.0
0.0
-1.1

-0.5
-0.5
1.2
-2.4
-0.3

5678

5473

0.2

0.4

0.0

-0.6

12166

12154

0.5

2.3

-0.5

-0.2

49128

47572

1.6

0.1

-0.1

-0.6

14058
9612
4446
10187
11103
14934

13724
9328
4396
9986
10785
14633

13360
9010
4350
9745
10476
13991

0.9
0.3
2.7
0.4
2.0
2.9

0.5
0.2
1.3
-0.2
-0.8
0.6

-0.3
-0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.2

-0.5
-0.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.7

1200
16515
17105
10299
3942
1218
2

1114
15315
16578
10740
4044
1335
2

1065
13809
15684
11079
4490
1442
2

-2.4
2.5
-0.1
2.9
19.3
0.3

-1.3
0.1
-0.8
0.9
3.7
5.8

0.5
-0.1
-1.2
1.2
0.7
6.2
8.2

-1.2
-1.8
-0.9
0.7
1.3
1.7
-0.1

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

214.2

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

152.1
43.4
13.8
26.6
19.2
18.9
30.2
9.4
52.6

167.6
49.2
16.0
24.8
20.6
20.7
36.3
9.1

814

1169

3244

4750

6053

6717

7263

219.2
166.2
49.1
13.5
24.6
18.9
19.5
40.6
8.2
44.8

217.8
107.3
172.1
51.2
15.0
25.4
17.8
18.1
44.5
8.6
37.0

197.4
91.5
159.6
48.5
11.4
21.9
17.9
17.4
42.5
7.9
29.9

202.8
98.7
164.5
56.2
10.6
21.3
17.6
16.6
42.2
8.1
30.3

195.8
95.4
157.4
53.2
10.1
19.9
16.6
15.4
42.2
8.0
30.3

191.2
94.9
152.7
53.9
9.6
18.4
15.6
14.0
41.2
8.1
30.4

180.8
88.7
142.1
50.6
9.0
15.8
14.7
12.8
39.2
8.1
30.7

102.3

101.7

92.2

94.7

91.4

89.3

84.4

14.8

6.4

1.8

0.2

-1.0

0.9
1.2
-0.3
-0.8
-0.2
0.3
3.0
-1.4
-1.6

-0.4
-0.1
-1.7
-1.1
-0.5
-1.2
0.4
-0.4
-4.0

-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.9
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-1.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1

-0.8
-0.7
-1.0
-0.5
-1.2
-2.3
-1.2
-1.9
-0.7
0.1
0.1

Source: PRIMES

104

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Netherlands: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

14.893
347.5
195.6
2.24
23.2

15.424
394.3
189.0
2.25
20.0

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

15.864
480.8
160.2
2.16
39.2

16.306
513.4
160.7
2.09
38.7

16.503
539.5
145.3
2.04
36.3

16.717
589.1
134.8
2.07
39.6

16.896
637.9
123.0
2.01
41.2

17.069
682.4
113.5
1.97
49.6

17.208
726.3
104.6
1.87
55.2

45.7
9.5

53.0
10.3

53.8
10.0

62.0
10.5

73.6
11.5

80.9
11.8

82.9
11.4

0.6
3.3
-2.0
-0.4

0.4
1.2
-1.0
-0.6

0.2
1.7
-1.6
-0.1

0.2
1.3
-1.6
-0.7

1.7

3.2

1.2

105.2
133.0
117.5
41.4
34.9

107.3
133.8
115.7
49.0
37.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
49.3
38.1

108.1
93.4
86.8
52.8
36.6

104.0
91.5
80.6
50.8
35.8

97.5
83.9
72.8
46.7
35.6

90.7
75.3
65.4
44.9
34.1

84.9
69.0
58.9
41.2
32.5

79.6
63.1
53.5
36.4
30.8

-0.5
-2.8
-1.6
1.8
0.9

0.4
-0.9
-2.1
0.3
-0.6

-1.4
-1.9
-2.1
-1.2
-0.5

-1.3
-1.8
-2.0
-2.1
-1.0

0.56
2.21
2.12
1.93
1.89
2.91

0.48
2.15
1.96
1.85
1.81
2.92

0.39
2.07
1.79
1.83
1.60
2.93

0.35
2.05
1.70
1.76
1.58
2.95

0.30
1.97
1.51
1.76
1.54
2.89

0.30
1.92
1.47
1.70
1.47
2.86

0.26
1.87
1.42
1.63
1.39
2.83

0.26
1.82
1.34
1.56
1.30
2.82

0.23
1.74
1.18
1.51
1.22
2.80

-3.4
-0.7
-1.7
-0.5
-1.7
0.1

-2.8
-0.5
-1.7
-0.4
-0.4
-0.1

-1.3
-0.5
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
-0.2

-1.3
-0.8
-1.8
-0.7
-1.3
-0.1

1.6
0.1

2.2
0.1

6.3
2.6

9.2
4.6

11.9
6.2

13.5
6.9

15.0
7.5

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

89599
3925
23513
2380
55301
3500
142
829
8
0

100235
3996
22687
2698
62203
6463
88
2067
34
0

104437
3942
21513
2946
59752
8937
99
7160
87
0

126316
3967
33250
2937
59828
10677
99
15398
116
43

138830
3971
35217
2885
59705
11252
99
25472
124
105

145932
5096
39552
2121
57709
12430
99
28637
103
185

150252
9592
36127
1850
57580
13306
99
31031
170
497

1.5
0.0
-0.9
2.2
0.8
9.8
-3.6
24.1
27.0

2.9
0.1
5.1
-0.2
0.0
2.3
0.0
13.5
3.6

0.8
9.2
0.3
-4.3
-0.4
1.7
0.0
2.0
3.2
16.8

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

20559
504
494
39
442
13
0
19561
6017
0
4200
13732
776
853
0
0

23096
504
1331
37
1243
51
0
21261
5905
0
4200
14827
762
1473
0
0

26283
504
3212
37
3078
96
0
22566
8239
0
4186
15935
995
1451
0
0

31431
504
5740
37
5578
125
0
25186
8347
0
8133
14307
787
1954
0
5

33532
504
8782
37
8615
128
2
24246
8659
1005
8534
12857
786
2057
0
11

34187
589
9778
37
9632
107
2
23821
8880
1005
8534
12216
898
2152
0
21

35845
1108
10672
37
10397
177
61
24066
9101
1005
8534
12258
896
2343
0
35

2.5
0.0
20.6
-0.5
21.4
22.2

2.5
0.0
10.6
0.0
10.8
2.9

1.4
3.2

0.7
0.5

0.0
1.5
2.5
5.4

7.4
-2.1
-2.3
3.6

0.7
8.2
2.0
0.0
1.9
3.2
44.8
-0.1
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
1.3
1.3

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

47.7

47.5

43.5

43.8

44.7

46.0

45.2

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

39.9
39.1
0.0
9.4
4.4
5.0

41.2
30.8
0.0
12.6
4.0
8.6

41.9
42.7
0.0
19.4
3.8
15.6

42.6
36.3
0.0
24.0
3.1
20.8

42.6
33.4
4.7
29.5
2.9
26.7

42.3
31.5
6.1
31.9
3.5
28.4

41.4
31.8
6.9
36.4
6.4
30.0

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

11.9

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation
Freight transport activity (Gtkm)
Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation
Energy demand in transport (ktoe)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

172.2
13.0
138.6
12.3
7.0
1.2

172.3
12.0
133.0
17.7
8.5
1.0

184.4
11.3
143.3
16.1
13.0
0.7

194.8
11.8
151.5
16.7
14.2
0.7

197.9
12.4
151.7
18.1
15.1
0.7

213.8
13.2
162.2
19.6
18.0
0.8

226.7
13.8
169.2
21.2
21.7
0.8

240.0
14.1
177.5
22.6
25.1
0.8

254.4
14.3
187.4
23.9
28.0
0.8

0.7
-1.4
0.3
2.7
6.3
-5.0

0.7
0.9
0.6
1.2
1.5
0.2

1.4
1.1
1.1
1.6
3.7
0.6

1.2
0.3
1.0
1.2
2.6
0.5

93.2
54.5
3.1
35.7

105.7
67.1
3.1
35.5

125.4
79.6
4.5
41.3

132.3
84.2
5.9
42.2

129.2
80.0
7.4
41.8

134.5
83.8
7.7
43.0

139.4
86.6
7.9
44.8

146.1
91.2
8.1
46.9

153.8
96.8
8.1
48.9

3.0
3.9
3.9
1.5

0.3
0.1
5.0
0.1

0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7

1.0
1.1
0.2
0.9

10385
166
5237
2666
147
1608
560

12436
151
5553
3278
163
2589
702

13858
140
5491
4037
176
3343
672

15114
144
6371
4552
172
3670
206

14685
150
6117
4319
197
3698
204

14767
155
5868
4475
203
3857
209

14934
153
5668
4450
187
4260
216

14633
148
5358
4451
173
4280
223

13991
143
4946
4436
167
4068
231

2.9
-1.7
0.5
4.2
1.8
7.6
1.8

0.6
0.7
1.1
0.7
1.2
1.0
-11.2

0.2
0.2
-0.8
0.3
-0.6
1.4
0.5

-0.7
-0.7
-1.4
0.0
-1.1
-0.5
0.7

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

105

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Poland: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

99385
94459
179
2378
0
2369
139
2230
0
0
0

99403
91104
367
3169
0
4763
162
4600
0
0
0

80300
71298
1433
3313
0
4256
181
4072
0
0
3

79260
68876
1498
3884
0
5002
189
4792
12
0
9

69088
59068
750
3865
0
5405
195
5094
87
1
28

66603
55712
700
3440
0
6750
205
6363
126
9
49

67801
52821
700
3100
2817
8363
221
7819
215
27
81

67231
49038
650
2800
5094
9648
231
8957
294
51
115

66595
46066
600
2700
6738
10491
246
9653
375
82
135

-2.1
-2.8
23.1
3.4

-1.5
-1.9
-6.3
1.6

-0.2
-1.1
-0.7
-2.2

6.0
2.7
6.2

2.4
0.7
2.3
70.0
25.1

4.5
1.3
4.4
9.5
34.5
11.3

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

2306
-18913
14536
13196
1340
6773
-90

-11
-21202
15622
14112
1510
5810
-241

10262
-16309
20512
18949
1563
6607
-548

16911
-12755
22155
18362
3793
8531
-962

32448
-5382
27324
22682
4642
11192
-576

42317
-342
31119
25656
5463
12167
-442

45109
2088
31716
26086
5629
12025
-449

47968
4353
32146
26393
5753
12312
-498

47840
4686
31654
26105
5549
12422
-528

16.1

12.2

3.3

3.5
3.7
1.5
-0.2

2.9
1.8
11.5
5.4

1.5
1.4
1.9
0.7

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

100083
75405
13461
8938
0
-90
2369

100165
70500
16149
8995
0
-241
4763

90907
56358
20889
9960
0
-548
4249

93870
54918
22734
12235
0
-962
4946

101116
53686
27655
15057
0
-576
5295

108450
55370
31350
15607
0
-442
6565

112434
54910
31940
15125
2817
-449
8091

114723
53391
32319
15112
5094
-498
9304

113963
50752
31782
15122
6738
-528
10098

-1.0
-2.9
4.5
1.1

1.1
-0.5
2.8
4.2

1.1
0.2
1.5
0.0

0.1
-0.8
0.0
0.0
9.1

6.0

2.2

4.3

2.2

75.3
13.4
8.9
0.0
2.4

70.4
16.1
9.0
0.0
4.8

62.0
23.0
11.0
0.0
4.7

58.5
24.2
13.0
0.0
5.3

53.1
27.3
14.9
0.0
5.2

51.1
28.9
14.4
0.0
6.1

48.8
28.4
13.5
2.5
7.2

46.5
28.2
13.2
4.4
8.1

44.5
27.9
13.3
5.9
8.9

134591
24377

137017
30428

143148
27978

155331
28523

162746
30141

173065
31338

187136
34507

201069
37423

215830
40450

0.6
1.4

1.3
0.7

1.4
1.4

1.4
1.6

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

43419
41138
1235
673
372
0
0

36847
35842
405
488
114
0
0

35960
34793
228
783
157
0
0

38149
35942
179
1483
546
0
0

41083
37763
190
1479
1651
0
0

43197
39902
231
1342
1721
0
0

42995
39481
206
1500
1809
0
0

42347
38784
197
1445
1914
8
0

40951
37337
196
1356
2046
16
0

-1.9
-1.7
-15.6
1.5
-8.3

1.3
0.8
-1.8
6.6
26.6

0.5
0.4
0.8
0.1
0.9

-0.5
-0.6
-0.5
-1.0
1.2

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

37964
13269
0
9949
14746

33093
15062
0
5985
12045

34029
20074
0
4320
9635

32016
19789
47
3640
8541

34125
23597
363
3545
6620

36747
26532
654
3462
6099

37146
26945
943
3892
5366

37382
27192
1146
4234
4810

36898
26845
1292
4433
4329

-1.1
4.2

0.0
1.6

-8.0
-4.2

-2.0
-3.7

0.9
1.3
10.0
0.9
-2.1

-0.1
0.0
3.2
1.3
-2.1

Energy Branch Consumption

6808

7653

7263

7151

8573

8968

9084

9140

9008

0.6

1.7

0.6

-0.1

Non-Energy Uses

4218

3720

4319

4471

4708

5007

5071

5216

5414

0.2

0.9

0.7

0.7

59652

63525

55323

57854

64813

70690

73022

74704

74949

-0.8

1.6

1.2

0.3

25258
16252
9006
18126
8906
7362

22722
15428
7294
23284
9244
8275

18886
13373
5513
17519
9714
9204

16462
11186
5276
18377
10932
12083

17460
11360
6100
18767
11848
16738

18667
11803
6864
19374
12984
19664

19017
11738
7279
19725
13587
20693

19180
11564
7616
19877
14156
21491

19142
11558
7583
19836
14357
21614

-2.9
-1.9
-4.8
-0.3
0.9
2.3

-0.8
-1.6
1.0
0.7
2.0
6.2

0.9
0.3
1.8
0.5
1.4
2.1

0.1
-0.2
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.4

17066
9143
7987
8262
15563
1631
0

23299
11618
7735
7703
8763
4408
0

13728
14917
7447
8454
6886
3889
0

11350
17874
8400
9028
7056
4146
0

10261
21970
11522
9926
7907
3226
1

9994
25387
12231
10828
7784
4463
3

10176
25903
11428
11760
7994
5759
4

9601
26362
11141
12680
8260
6656
4

8724
26112
10881
13698
8525
7005
4

-2.2
5.0
-0.7
0.2
-7.8
9.1

-2.9
3.9
4.5
1.6
1.4
-1.9

-0.1
1.7
-0.1
1.7
0.1
6.0
12.1

-1.5
0.1
-0.5
1.5
0.6
2.0
0.5

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses

Final Energy Demand


by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

-0.2
-1.4
-1.5
-1.4
9.1
2.3
1.1
2.1
5.7
11.6
5.2
0.6
8.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.3

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions

440.8

TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

100.0

332.3
209.3
5.8
44.0
33.1
19.4
20.6
17.7
90.8

330.9
169.9
12.7
59.9
44.4
20.8
23.2
18.0

3766

4290

4528

5871

7352

8507

9233

374.8
288.6
158.8
11.3
46.3
27.9
18.4
25.8
17.6
68.6

375.2
218.9
291.2
162.1
10.6
33.5
30.2
20.5
34.4
16.8
67.2

396.5
221.1
312.3
168.3
10.2
33.5
31.2
21.8
47.1
18.6
65.6

414.2
229.0
330.8
176.6
9.8
35.4
31.7
22.4
54.8
20.7
62.6

409.7
225.1
325.7
171.8
9.4
35.8
29.9
21.7
57.0
22.3
61.8

401.1
217.4
315.8
164.0
9.1
35.0
27.7
21.3
58.7
23.4
62.0

381.2
203.9
296.5
150.2
8.5
34.0
24.9
20.4
58.5
24.3
60.5

85.0

85.1

89.9

94.0

92.9

91.0

86.5

1.9

5.0

2.3

-1.6

0.6

-1.4
-2.7
6.9
0.5
-1.7
-0.5
2.3
-0.1
-2.8

0.8
0.6
-1.0
-3.2
1.1
1.7
6.2
0.6
-0.5

0.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
-0.8
0.7
-0.4
-0.1
1.9
1.8
-0.6

-0.7
-1.0
-0.9
-1.3
-1.0
-0.5
-1.8
-0.6
0.3
0.9
-0.2

Source: PRIMES

106

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Poland: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

38.038
144.7
691.6
3.32
2.3

38.581
161.3
620.9
3.30
0.0

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

38.654
210.0
432.9
3.17
11.3

38.174
244.4
384.1
3.10
18.0

38.092
298.1
339.2
3.09
32.0

38.068
353.9
306.4
3.05
38.9

37.960
406.1
276.9
2.90
40.0

37.612
464.5
247.0
2.75
41.6

36.975
515.8
220.9
2.60
41.8

31.5
15.0

39.8
16.3

47.7
16.0

58.6
16.5

74.3
18.3

86.6
18.6

93.3
18.1

0.2
3.8
-4.6
-0.4

-0.1
3.6
-2.4
-0.3

0.0
3.1
-2.0
-0.6

-0.3
2.4
-2.2
-1.1

4.2

4.5

2.3

200.8
182.3
130.3
22.8
25.3

177.4
177.4
119.8
27.4
27.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
24.9
29.2

67.2
91.0
98.0
26.7
32.1

56.2
79.4
88.9
27.6
34.1

49.6
69.5
79.8
27.1
34.0

45.2
60.7
71.7
26.8
33.3

41.6
53.2
64.1
26.4
32.7

39.7
47.2
57.4
25.8
31.6

-6.7
-5.8
-2.6
0.9
1.4

-5.6
-2.3
-1.2
1.1
1.6

-2.1
-2.7
-2.1
-0.3
-0.3

-1.3
-2.5
-2.2
-0.4
-0.5

0.62
1.96
1.74
1.83
2.18
2.80

0.67
2.33
2.64
1.90
2.25
2.80

0.67
2.14
2.45
1.59
1.89
2.81

0.65
2.05
2.03
1.64
1.87
2.85

0.59
2.06
1.92
1.66
1.84
2.81

0.58
2.04
1.89
1.64
1.73
2.79

0.54
1.98
1.88
1.52
1.60
2.75

0.49
1.91
1.83
1.39
1.51
2.73

0.42
1.84
1.77
1.26
1.42
2.70

0.8
0.9
3.5
-1.3
-1.4
0.0

-1.3
-0.4
-2.4
0.4
-0.3
0.0

-0.9
-0.4
-0.2
-0.9
-1.4
-0.2

-2.3
-0.7
-0.6
-1.9
-1.1
-0.2

6.5
0.1

7.1
0.5

6.7
2.7

8.0
4.1

9.7
5.6

10.9
6.6

11.8
7.4

143148
0
137226
911
2450
451
2106
5
0
0

155331
0
145736
759
4990
1510
2201
135
0
0

162746
0
148979
994
4995
4505
2263
1008
1
0

173065
0
159480
766
4443
4531
2379
1462
4
0

187136
11760
159386
266
5278
5373
2568
2495
10
0

201069
21546
162120
250
5154
5867
2682
3418
23
9

215830
28710
167841
427
5489
6085
2856
4361
42
18

1.3

1.4

0.8
0.9
7.4
25.9
0.7
70.0

0.7
-12.4
0.6
1.8
1.3
9.5
22.8

1.4
9.3
0.5
4.9
0.4
1.3
1.1
5.7
16.0

29565
0
813
809
4
0
0
28752
9348
0
27462
847
429
14
0
0

30959
0
1028
907
121
0
0
29931
9606
0
28152
1291
430
59
0
0

32474
0
1687
1014
672
1
0
30787
9771
0
28873
1208
430
276
0
0

32365
0
2024
1098
922
4
0
30340
8066
0
27782
1556
439
563
0
0

33340
1515
2727
1187
1530
10
0
29098
7948
610
25966
1753
391
988
0
0

35977
2776
3360
1203
2133
24
0
29841
8255
1238
26574
1741
274
1252
0
1

40667
3699
4003
1203
2756
44
0
32965
8505
2268
29459
1722
213
1568
0
2

0.9

0.3

7.6
2.3
66.9

4.9
1.6
8.6
22.3

0.7
0.4

-0.6
-2.0

0.5
3.6
0.0
34.6

-1.1
3.8
-0.9
13.6

1.3
0.7
14.0
1.3
-0.2
-5.9
4.7

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

50.3

52.4

52.3

56.0

58.4

57.8

54.7

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

33.7
17.6
0.0
1.8
0.0
1.8

34.5
18.3
0.0
2.5
0.0
2.5

33.4
17.8
0.0
4.8
0.0
4.8

33.7
18.2
0.0
4.8
0.0
4.8

34.1
18.6
3.6
11.9
6.3
5.6

35.2
20.1
6.6
16.7
10.7
6.0

37.8
18.5
10.9
19.5
13.3
6.2

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)
Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)
Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived
Net Generation Capacity in MW e
Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

2.0
9.3
3.9
0.1
6.1
16.0

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

186.5
46.3
83.4
55.4
0.9
0.4

182.3
34.0
115.2
31.6
1.2
0.3

217.1
31.7
153.6
28.8
2.8
0.2

257.8
29.3
201.2
22.3
4.8
0.2

323.6
28.3
262.6
24.8
7.6
0.2

378.2
29.5
310.3
27.4
10.8
0.2

412.2
31.4
338.3
29.4
12.8
0.2

442.6
33.7
360.8
31.6
16.2
0.2

464.7
35.3
375.5
33.2
20.4
0.3

1.5
-3.7
6.3
-6.3
12.4
-6.3

4.1
-1.1
5.5
-1.5
10.7
-0.6

2.5
1.1
2.6
1.7
5.3
1.3

1.2
1.2
1.0
1.2
4.8
0.7

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

122.9
40.3
81.6
1.0

120.3
51.2
68.2
0.9

130.2
75.0
54.0
1.2

162.1
111.8
50.0
0.3

228.4
172.5
55.5
0.4

276.9
210.8
65.6
0.4

290.6
219.3
70.8
0.4

300.2
223.9
75.8
0.5

304.0
223.8
79.7
0.5

0.6
6.4
-4.0
1.3

5.8
8.7
0.3
-11.4

2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5

0.5
0.2
1.2
1.4

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

7362
421
3435
2111
1099
196
99

8275
307
4241
2659
669
371
29

9204
276
4687
3326
540
369
6

12083
254
6248
4792
468
319
2

16738
244
8146
7343
507
497
2

19664
248
9271
8895
584
664
2

20693
253
9961
9139
572
765
3

21491
257
10519
9316
558
838
3

21614
262
10657
9200
471
1021
3

2.3
-4.1
3.2
4.6
-6.9
6.5
-24.3

6.2
-1.3
5.7
8.2
-0.6
3.0
-9.9

2.1
0.4
2.0
2.2
1.2
4.4
1.7

0.4
0.3
0.7
0.1
-1.9
2.9
0.8

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

107

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Portugal: Baseline 2009

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)

ktoe

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

3396
115
0
0
0
3281
787
2479
0
11
3

3321
0
0
0
0
3321
717
2550
1
15
37

3826
0
0
0
0
3826
974
2770
14
18
49

3583
0
0
0
0
3583
407
2936
152
23
66

4652
0
0
0
0
4652
892
2950
589
66
154

4972
0
0
0
0
4972
937
2955
753
172
155

5251
0
0
0
0
5251
941
3023
876
256
155

5723
0
0
0
0
5723
959
3293
977
328
167

6448
0
0
0
0
6448
925
3358
1342
572
250

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

15122
2789
12329
11319
1011
0
3

18012
3797
14137
13603
534
0
79

21881
3913
15848
12231
3618
2039
80

24414
3223
16711
13637
3073
3893
587

20967
2319
13740
12411
1329
4220
542

21046
2256
13771
12440
1330
4074
564

20930
2181
13616
12380
1236
4035
626

20914
2103
13416
12299
1117
4128
709

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

17508
2580
11644
0
0
3
3281

20469
3493
13576
0
0
79
3321

25078
3803
15335
2034
0
80
3826

27035
3347
15768
3751
0
587
3583

25036
2319
13157
4220
0
542
4797

25412
2256
13164
4074
0
564
5354

25562
2181
12997
4035
0
626
5723

14.7
66.5
0.0
0.0
18.7

17.1
66.3
0.0
0.0
16.2

15.2
61.1
8.1
0.0
15.3

12.4
58.3
13.9
0.0
13.3

9.3
52.6
16.9
0.0
19.2

8.9
51.8
16.0
0.0
21.1

28350
4441

33148
4776

43364
5363

46180
5983

46349
5692

4304
2027
2105
19
149
3
0

5493
2919
2371
18
148
37
0

6508
3198
1671
1234
356
49
0

8007
3319
1885
2309
430
65
0

11443
11111
0
0
332

14111
13635
0
16
460

12911
12462
0
0
449

655

960

2113

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms
Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe
Self consumption and grid losses
Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation
Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol
Fuel Input in other transformation proc.
Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others
Energy Branch Consumption
Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

1.2

2.0

1.2

2.1

1.5
2.1
1.1
66.9
5.4
31.4

2.0
-0.9
0.6
44.9
13.6
12.1

1.2
0.5
0.2
4.0
14.5
0.1

2.1
-0.2
1.1
4.4
8.4
4.9

20329
1613
13227
12216
1011
4218
692

3.8
3.4
2.5
0.8
13.6

-0.4
-5.1
-1.4
0.1
-9.5
7.5
21.1

0.0
-0.6
-0.1
0.0
-0.7
-0.4
1.4

-0.3
-3.0
-0.3
-0.1
-2.0
0.4
1.0

26004
2103
12783
4128
0
709
6282

26125
1613
12575
4218
0
692
7026

3.7
4.0
2.8

0.0
-4.8
-1.5
7.6

0.2
-0.6
-0.1
-0.4

0.2
-3.0
-0.3
0.4

38.1
1.5

21.1
2.3

1.4
1.8

1.0
2.1

8.5
50.8
15.8
0.0
22.4

8.1
49.2
15.9
0.0
24.2

6.2
48.1
16.1
0.0
26.9

50371
6297

54603
6991

59551
8391

65860
9873

4.3
1.9

0.7
0.6

1.7
2.1

1.9
3.5

6198
2314
551
2478
704
151
0

6301
2251
466
2355
1078
151
0

6634
2177
432
2348
1527
151
0

7074
2099
232
2655
1927
161
0

6675
1610
160
2690
1971
244
0

4.2
4.7
-2.3
51.6
9.1
31.4

-0.5
-3.2
-10.5
7.2
7.1
11.8

0.7
-0.6
-2.4
-0.5
8.1
0.0

0.1
-3.0
-9.5
1.4
2.6
4.9

13785
13785
0
0
0

12848
12694
154
0
0

12960
12702
258
0
0

12959
12623
336
0
0

12920
12522
397
0
0

12854
12431
422
0
0

1.2
1.2

0.0
0.2

0.1
-0.1
8.1

-0.1
-0.2
2.3

1025

1101

898

880

859

902

946

4.6

-1.3

-0.4

1.0

1891

2364

2429

2182

2228

2264

2290

2392

1.1

-0.8

0.4

0.6

11813

13789

17694

18723

18125

18628

19031

19399

19784

4.1

0.2

0.5

0.4

4728
3073
1656
2290
1055
3740

4974
3350
1625
2569
1377
4869

6244
4092
2151
2804
2105
6542

5689
3767
1922
3206
2773
7055

5004
3010
1994
3192
2622
7307

4887
2881
2006
3357
2785
7599

4955
2848
2107
3455
2869
7752

5077
2834
2243
3532
2957
7832

5419
2960
2459
3565
3016
7784

2.8
2.9
2.7
2.0
7.1
5.8

-2.2
-3.0
-0.8
1.3
2.2
1.1

-0.1
-0.6
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.6

0.9
0.4
1.6
0.3
0.5
0.0

617
6700
103
2024
28
2341
0

546
8215
97
2477
36
2417
0

465
10509
853
3299
134
2433
0

16
10561
1307
3983
328
2529
0

5
9637
1682
3980
375
2444
1

5
9714
1663
4295
604
2346
1

4
9582
1635
4662
1073
2074
1

4
9574
1423
5051
1299
2046
1

3
9379
1480
5451
1376
2093
1

-2.8
4.6
23.6
5.0
16.8
0.4

-35.9
-0.9
7.0
1.9
10.8
0.0

-2.6
-0.1
-0.3
1.6
11.1
-1.6
9.9

-2.9
-0.2
-1.0
1.6
2.5
0.1
-0.2

3559

3886

4526

4815

5120

5661

6409

2.4

1.2

2.3

83.4

74.2
31.4
51.6
16.7
2.2
5.6
2.2
3.6
21.3
6.6
16.0

73.5
30.4
50.9
15.9
2.1
5.3
2.2
3.5
21.9
6.6
16.0

72.1
30.1
49.9
15.4
2.0
5.0
2.1
3.2
22.1
6.6
15.6

71.6
30.1
49.1
15.2
1.9
4.7
2.0
3.0
22.2
6.7
15.8

64.5
23.8
41.8
8.6
1.8
4.7
2.0
2.8
21.9
7.0
15.7

3.5

-1.2

58.7
20.9
2.5
10.7
2.0
3.2
19.4
6.6
18.1

89.3
42.1
61.8
24.5
2.6
7.1
2.3
4.3
21.0
7.8
19.7

4.2
3.5
5.3
2.6
2.0
5.4
5.8
4.1
1.4

-1.3
-2.2
-1.4
-6.2
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.1
-1.2

-0.3
-0.4
-0.3
-0.8
-1.0
-1.2
-0.4
-1.0
0.4
0.0
-0.2

-1.1
-2.3
-1.7
-5.7
-1.2
-0.5
-0.6
-1.3
-0.1
0.6
0.1

140.7

150.5

125.2

123.9

121.6

120.7

108.8

38.1

3.1

by fuel
Solids
Oil
Gas
Electricity
Heat (from CHP and District Heating) (A)
Renewable energy forms
Other
RES in Gross Final Energy Consumption (B)
TOTAL GHGs Emissions (Mt of CO2 eq.)
of which ETS sectors GHGs emissions
CO2 Emissions (energy related)
Power generation/District heating
Energy Branch
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport
CO2 Emissions (non energy related)
Non-CO2 GHGs Emissions
TOTAL GHGs Emissions Index (1990=100)

59.3
39.1
14.8
1.5
8.2
1.6
1.9
11.1
4.4
15.8
100.0

48.6
19.2
2.4
8.4
1.9
2.2
14.4
5.9

Source: PRIMES

108

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (B)


1990

Portugal: Baseline 2009


1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30


Annual % Change

Main Energy System Indicators


Population (Million)
GDP (in 000 MEuro'05)
Gross Inl. Cons./GDP (toe/MEuro'05)
Carbon intensity (t of CO2/toe of GIC)
Import Dependency %
Total Energy-related Costs

(C)

9.996
102.0
171.7
2.23
83.5

10.018
116.9
175.1
2.37
86.0

(in 000 M05)

as % of GDP
Energy intensity indicators
Industry (Energy on Value added)
Residential (Energy on Private Income)
Tertiary (Energy on Value added)

10.195
142.8
175.7
2.34
85.0

10.529
149.1
181.3
2.29
88.4

10.723
147.9
169.3
2.06
81.8

10.947
162.4
156.5
2.00
80.9

11.108
179.6
142.3
1.95
79.9

11.224
198.7
130.9
1.89
78.5

11.317
221.5
118.0
1.60
75.9

17.9
12.6

20.9
14.0

22.2
15.0

25.8
15.9

31.0
17.2

34.9
17.6

37.1
16.7

0.2
3.4
0.2
0.5

0.5
0.4
-0.4
-1.3

0.4
2.0
-1.7
-0.5

0.2
2.1
-1.9
-2.0

2.2

3.4

1.8

82.1
121.8
70.3
40.1
45.1

95.7
112.4
77.9
44.2
53.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
40.9
66.8

93.4
106.5
121.4
40.3
61.4

88.5
109.0
111.2
39.3
61.3

82.3
103.9
105.7
36.3
60.9

77.6
95.7
96.7
34.3
58.5

72.4
89.3
88.8
32.2
55.5

70.2
81.8
80.0
29.5
52.1

2.0
-2.0
3.6
0.2
4.0

-1.2
0.9
1.1
-0.4
-0.9

-1.3
-1.3
-1.4
-1.3
-0.5

-1.0
-1.6
-1.9
-1.5
-1.1

0.52
1.93
1.74
0.71
1.77
2.96

0.57
1.95
1.68
0.74
1.62
2.96

0.47
1.99
1.71
0.71
1.51
2.97

0.49
1.85
1.25
0.70
1.53
2.98

0.33
1.81
1.12
0.70
1.36
2.92

0.28
1.77
1.08
0.67
1.25
2.88

0.23
1.70
1.00
0.62
1.12
2.86

0.20
1.65
0.93
0.58
1.02
2.83

0.10
1.59
0.87
0.56
0.94
2.82

-1.0
0.3
-0.2
0.0
-1.6
0.1

-3.4
-1.0
-4.1
-0.2
-1.0
-0.2

-3.5
-0.6
-1.1
-1.2
-1.9
-0.2

-7.6
-0.7
-1.3
-0.9
-1.8
-0.1

19.6
0.2

20.2
0.2

24.3
2.7

25.1
4.3

26.1
5.5

28.3
6.5

31.2
7.1

Gross Electricity generation by fuel type (in GWh)


Nuclear energy
Coal and lignite
Petroleum products
Gas (including derived gases)
Biomass & waste
Hydro
Wind
Solar, tidal etc.
Geothermal
othergases)
renewables
Gas
(includingand
derived

43364
0
15643
7769
7229
1153
11321
168
1
80

46180
0
15647
8912
13599
1410
4730
1773
3
105

46349
0
10758
2886
13010
2063
10371
6853
194
215

50371
0
10463
2432
11885
4712
10892
8758
996
233

54603
0
10121
2193
12202
6971
10947
10180
1562
426

59551
0
9759
1143
14633
8835
11146
11360
1923
751

65860
0
8731
871
15291
9054
10761
15601
4321
1231

0.7

1.7

1.9

-3.7
-9.4
6.1
6.0
-0.9
44.9
69.3
10.4

-0.6
-2.7
-0.6
12.9
0.5
4.0
23.2
7.1

-1.5
-8.8
2.3
2.6
-0.2
4.4
10.7
11.2

Net Generation Capacity in MW e


Nuclear energy
Renewable energy
Hydro (pumping excluded)
Wind
Solar
Other renewables (tidal etc.)
Thermal power
of which cogeneration units
of which CCS units
Solids fired
Gas fired
Oil fired
Biomass-waste fired
Fuel Cells
Geothermal heat

10360
0
3967
3883
83
1
0
6393
1640
0
1889
1383
2795
312
0
14

13096
0
5488
4422
1064
2
0
7607
1845
0
1903
2589
2730
372
0
14

17405
0
8490
4499
3832
156
2
8915
2271
0
1855
3923
2727
387
0
24

20172
0
10133
4622
4803
696
12
10039
2431
0
1807
5512
2181
515
0
24

20699
0
11387
4676
5508
1091
112
9312
2525
0
1807
5253
1420
807
0
24

21216
0
12378
4676
6084
1343
274
8838
2927
0
1421
5340
947
1105
0
25

24270
0
15221
4781
7600
2366
473
9049
2960
654
1222
5744
903
1143
0
36

5.3

1.7

1.6

7.9
1.5
46.7
65.7
3.4
3.3

3.0
0.4
3.7
21.5
47.8
0.4
1.1

2.9
0.2
3.3
8.0
15.5
-0.3
1.6

-0.2
11.0
-0.2
2.2

-0.3
3.0
-6.3
7.6

-3.8
0.9
-4.4
3.5

5.5

0.0

4.2

Load factor for net electric capacities (%)

46.1

38.9

29.6

27.8

29.3

30.8

29.4

Efficiency for thermal electricity production (%)


CHP indicator (% of electricity from CHP)
CCS indicator (% of electricity from CCS)
Non fossil fuels in electricity generation (%)
- nuclear
- renewable energy forms and industrial waste

42.1
10.6
0.0
29.3
0.0
29.3

42.6
12.2
0.0
17.4
0.0
17.4

40.1
21.9
0.0
42.5
0.0
42.5

40.5
25.7
0.0
50.8
0.0
50.8

41.1
27.2
0.0
55.1
0.0
55.1

42.1
30.7
0.0
57.1
0.0
57.1

44.1
28.2
10.1
62.2
0.0
62.2

Passenger transport (toe/Mpkm)


Freight transport (toe/Mtkm)
Carbon Intensity indicators
Electricity and Steam production (t of CO2/MWh)
Final energy demand (t of CO2/toe)
Industry
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

Indicators for renewables (excluding industrial waste) (%)

(B)

RES in gross final energy demand (%)


RES in transport (%)

Transport sector
Passenger transport activity (Gpkm)
Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

56.9
10.3
33.3
6.3
6.7
0.3

67.3
11.3
41.9
5.3
8.5
0.2

91.5
11.8
59.2
4.6
15.7
0.3

105.0
11.1
72.0
4.7
17.0
0.3

110.8
10.8
75.4
5.0
19.2
0.3

121.1
11.2
80.9
5.5
23.2
0.3

130.4
11.8
86.0
6.0
26.3
0.3

140.8
12.3
91.0
6.5
30.7
0.3

152.0
12.8
96.6
7.1
35.2
0.3

4.9
1.4
5.9
-3.2
8.9
0.2

1.9
-0.9
2.4
1.0
2.1
1.0

1.6
0.8
1.3
1.7
3.2
0.5

1.5
0.8
1.2
1.7
3.0
0.4

Freight transport activity (Gtkm)


Trucks
Rail
Inland navigation

32.3
28.9
1.5
1.9

35.4
32.0
2.0
1.4

41.9
38.9
2.2
0.8

46.0
42.6
2.4
1.0

48.2
44.7
2.5
1.0

52.7
48.9
2.8
1.0

56.1
51.9
3.0
1.1

59.5
55.1
3.2
1.2

63.4
58.8
3.4
1.3

2.6
3.0
4.1
-7.9

1.4
1.4
1.5
1.4

1.5
1.5
1.7
1.6

1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2

Energy demand in transport (ktoe)


Public road transport
Private cars and motorcycles
Trucks
Rail
Aviation
Inland navigation

3740
82
1573
1384
83
574
44

4869
95
2209
1817
81
620
47

6542
114
2788
2718
88
790
44

7055
113
3200
2769
66
881
26

7307
109
3219
2899
66
987
27

7599
110
3113
3144
68
1136
28

7752
110
3081
3216
67
1250
29

7832
108
3058
3237
66
1334
30

7784
107
2945
3255
55
1390
31

5.8
3.3
5.9
7.0
0.6
3.2
0.0

1.1
-0.4
1.4
0.6
-2.9
2.3
-4.9

0.6
0.1
-0.4
1.0
0.1
2.4
0.9

0.0
-0.3
-0.5
0.1
-1.9
1.1
0.6

Source: PRIMES

EU Energy Baseline (2009) and Reference Scenario

109

EU ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030

APPENDIX 2A

Romania: Baseline 2009


ktoe

SUMMARY ENERGY BALANCE AND INDICATORS (A)


1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030 '90-'00 '00-'10 '10-'20 '20-'30

Production
Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy sources
Hydro
Biomass & Waste
Wind
Solar and others
Geothermal

41415
7935
7963
22911
0
2606
1460
1146
0
0
0

32618
7886
7124
14446
0
3162
1435
1726
0
0
0

28816
5875
6434
10968
1407
4131
1271
2854
0
0
7

28180
5793
6183
9701
1433
5070
1737
3314
0
0
18

27530
5757
4790
8869
2906
5208
1548
3589
34
6
31

28866
6401
5100
8500
2906
5958
1760
3929
128
43
97

30203
5941
5000
8231
4365
6665
2053
4146
191
142
134

31052
4890
4950
8200
5783
7229
2143
4478
240
199
168

31237
4826
4794
7922
5783
7912
2191
5052
274
213
181

-3.6
-3.0
-2.1
-7.1

Net Imports
Solids
Oil
- Crude oil and Feedstocks
- Oil products
Natural gas
Electricity
Detailed
Results

22567
4615
11209
16126
-4917
5928
815

14552
2870
6862
8760
-1898
4794
26

8116
1905
3560
4870
-1311
2712
-60

10814
2904
3970
8851
-4882
4190
-250

11581
1899
6200
10984
-4784
3877
-342

12543
1929
7106
12328
-5223
4159
-573

12598
1972
7341
12612
-5271
4027
-652

12430
1792
7359
12624
-5264
4047
-663

11832
1664
7101
12275
-5174
3910
-671

-9.7
-8.5
-10.8
-11.3

Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Electricity
Renewable energy forms

63714
12318
19136
28838
0
815
2606

47138
10793
13917
19240
0
26
3162

37131
7753
10214
13680
1407
-60
4137

39242
8769
10321
13942
1433
-250
5026

39111
7656
10990
12746
2906
-342
5155

41409
8330
12206
12659
2906
-573
5881

42802
7913
12341
12258
4365
-652
6576

43482
6681
12309
12247
5783
-663
7123

43069
6490
11895
11832
5783
-671
7740

19.3
30.0
45.3
0.0
4.1

22.9
29.5
40.8
0.0
6.7

20.9
27.5
36.8
3.8
11.1

22.3
26.3
35.5
3.7
12.8

19.6
28.1
32.6
7.4
13.2

20.1
29.5
30.6
7.0
14.2

18.5
28.8
28.6
10.2
15.4

15.4
28.3
28.2
13.3
16.4

15.1
27.6
27.5
13.4
18.0

Gross Electricity Generation in GWhe


Self consumption and grid losses

63398
14858

59255
13101

51925
9963

59402
9773

61558
9848

69947
10477

76342
10719

81219
10805

Fuel Inputs for Thermal Power Generation


Solids
Oil (including refinery gas)
Gas
Biomass & Waste
Geothermal heat
Hydrogen - Methanol

23517
8166
6202
9113
36
0
0

16474
7352
2996
6090
37
0
0

10637
5442
1683
3507
4
0
0

10103
5982
775
3343
3
0
0

9131
5799
464
2489
379
0
0

9921
6492
451
2515
441
23
0

8618
5641
398
2109
448
23
0

Fuel Input in other transformation proc.


Refineries
Biofuels and hydrogen production
District heating
Others

25114
23765
0
496
853

21082
15691
0
1902
3489

14984
11396
0
1739
1850

18111
15142
0
825
2144

18276
15774
59
953
1489

19711
17428
119
760
1404

3579

5328

4163

4205

4109

922

1401

2048

2469

2399

37257

26634

22460

24613

25111
15699
9412
4548
3181
4416

14854
10577
4278
6353
2358
3069

9051
6223
2828
8426
1587
3396

3026
8055
20495
4690
377
612
0

1586
5519
10249
3126
4679
1476
0

977
5310
6885
2916
3570
2802
0

Annual % Change

as % in Gross Inland Consumption


Solids
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Renewable energy forms

Energy Branch Consumption


Non-Energy Uses
Final Energy Demand
by sector
Industry
- energy intensive industries
- other industrial sectors
Residential
Tertiary
Transport

16.5

0.9
0.3
0.4
-0.7
4.2
2.5
2.9
1.5
18.9
36.9