China Energy

TheFutureofChinasEnergyMarket April2013
ReportfortheIHEST 1

The Future of Chinas Energy Market
Foreword
Introduction
Energyisarecurrenttopicindebatesinvolvingthepopulation,politiciansandscientists.Thereis
growingconcernaboutlimitedfossilfuelreservesandclimatechange.Societyisdividedoverwhich
solutionsshouldbeprivileged.TheaccidentinFukushimain2011hasrelaunchedthedebateonthe
safetyofnuclearenergy.
ItisthereforenaturalthattheIHESThasmadeenergyoneofitsmaintopics,publishingonlinedebates
andreportsondifferentaspectsofthissubject.
EnergyconsumptionandCO
2
emissionsarerelativelystableintheWesternworld,butincreasingrapidly
inmanycountries,includingChina.
Chinassizeandgrowingeconomicweightmeanthatdevelopmentsandtrendsintheenergysectorhave
aglobalimpact.
ThisreportfirstgivesashortoverviewonChinascurrentenergysituationbeforetakingacloserlookat
itsR&Dactivityinthisfield.
Thereportthenfocusesonthecurrentsituationandlikelytechnologicaldevelopmentsinthefossilfuel,
thenuclearandtherenewableenergysectors.
ChinasenergypoliciesandoutlookarethetopicofanotherIHESTreport:EnergyPoliciesinChinaand
Vietnam.
Abbreviations and technical terms used in this report
AIS
AcceleratedImprovementScenarioinenergyandcarbonintensity.Itassumesamuchmoreaggressive
trajectorytowardcurrentbestpracticeandimplementationofimportantalternativeenergy
technologies.Itincludesmeasuresthatarecurrentlynotenvisagedbythegovernment(likeanincrease
ofnuclearenergybeyondtheoneplanned).Itsaimisbasicallytocomeupwiththebestpossiblecase
scenario.Itexcludes,however,carboncaptureandsequestration.
BAUBaselinescenario
IntheInternationalEnergyAgencys,businessasusualbaselinescenario,governmentpolicesthat
havebeenenactedoradoptedcontinueunchanged.Theaimistoprovideabaselinethatshowshow
energymarketswouldevolveifunderlyingtrendsinenergydemandandsupplyarenotchanged
ReportfortheIHEST 2

Biomass
Inthecontextofenergy,biomassisfuel,heat,orelectricityproducedfromorganicmaterialssuchas
plants,residues,andwaste.Theseorganicmaterialsspanseveralsources,includingagriculture,forestry,
urbanwaste,landfillgases,wastewatertreatmentplants,anddedicatedenergycrops.
Biomassenergytakesmanyformsandcanhaveawidevarietyofapplicationsrangingfromdirectfiring
toproduceelectricityorheat,gasificationforheatandpowertoconversionintoliquidfuels.
Carbonintensity
TheCO
2
emissionsdividedbytheproductionofacompany(ortheGDPofacountry).
CIS
ContinuedImprovementScenarioinenergyandcarbonintensity.Itassumesthattheeconomywill
continueonapathofloweringitsenergyintensityasafunctionofGDP.TheERIBaselinescenario,issued
bytheEnergyResearchInstituteinBeijing,isbasedonsimilarassumptions.
GDP
Grossdomesticproduct.Thevalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedinacountryinoneyear.GDP
canbemeasuredbyaddingupallofaneconomy'sincomeswages,interest,profits,andrents.
Primaryenergyconsumption
Primaryenergyconsumptionistheamountoffossilandrenewablefuelsdirectlyconsumedbyeither
oneofthefourmajorendusesectors(transportation,industry,residentialbuildingandcommercial
buildings)orbytheelectricpowersector.
RenewableEnergy
Isdefinedaselectricenergygeneratedfromsolar,wind,biomass,landfillgas,ocean(includingtidal,
wave,current,andthermal),geothermal,municipalsolidwaste,ornewhydroelectricgeneration
capacityachievedfromincreasedefficiencyoradditionsofnewcapacityatanexistinghydroelectric
project.
Thedefinitiongenerallydoesnotincludenoncommercialbiomass,althoughitdoesrepresentan
importantsourceofenergyinpoorcountries.
R&D
ResearchandDevelopment.R&Dincludes:
ReportfortheIHEST 3

Basicresearch,definedasasystematicstudydirectedtowardfullerknowledgeorunderstandingofthe
fundamentalaspectsofphenomenaandofobservablefactswithoutspecificapplicationstowards
processesorproductsinmind.
Appliedresearch,definedasasystematicstudytogainknowledgeorunderstandingnecessaryto
determinethemeansbywhicharecognizedandspecificneedmaybemet.
Development,definedasasystematicapplicationofknowledgeorunderstandingdirectedtowardthe
productionofusefulmaterials,devices,andsystemsormethods,includingdesign,developmentand
improvementofprototypesandnewprocessestomeetspecificrequirements.
Tertiarysector
Thetertiarysectoristhesectoroftheeconomythatconcernsservices.Itisdistinctfromthesecondary
sector(manufacturing)andtheprimarysector(whichconcernsextractionsuchasmining,agriculture
andfishing).
toe
tonneofoilequivalentisameasurementofenergyconsumption.Onetoeistheenergyreleasedby
burningonetonneofcrudeoil(about42GJ(gigaJoule)or11.7MWh(megaWatthours)).
ReportfortheIHEST 4

Foreword ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 1
Abbreviations and technical terms used in this report ............................................................................. 1
Chinas Energy Situation in a Nutshell ..................................................................................................... 7
How has Chinas energy consumption evolved in recent years? ............................................................. 7
Can China meet the increasing energy demand? ..................................................................................... 7
Are Chinas primary energy resources close to its great economic centres? ........................................... 8
What are the likely trends for Chinas energy mix? ............................................................................... 10
What are Chinas targets for the reduction of its CO
2
emissions? ......................................................... 10
What actions have been taken to reach those targets?............................................................................ 11
Chinas R&D on Clean Energies .............................................................................................................. 12
What is Chinas role in the global research on clean energies? ............................................................. 12
Which clean energy technologies are being tested in China? ................................................................ 13
How is the R&D on renewable energies evolving in China? ................................................................. 14
Is there a pattern in the innovation process in China? ............................................................................ 15
How is Chinas renewable energy market organized? ........................................................................... 16
Does China encourage the development of renewable energy financially? ........................................... 16
What is the US-China Clean Energy Research Center (CERC)? ........................................................... 17
Fossil Fuel Technology in China- Present and Future .......................................................................... 18
Which are the most efficient coal-fired powered plants? ....................................................................... 18
Is the efficiency of Chinas coal-fired plants increasing rapidly? .......................................................... 18
Which have been the main steps in improving the coal-fired power plants in China? .......................... 19
Will China resort to carbon capture and storage in its coal-fired power plants? .................................... 20
What about coal conversion in China? ................................................................................................... 21
What is China doing to reduce air pollution caused by fossil fuel? ....................................................... 22
Will China start exploiting non-conventional gas reserves? .................................................................. 22
Nuclear Energy in China Present and Future ...................................................................................... 23
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Which have been the milestones in Chinas civilian nuclear programme? ............................................ 23
What are the particularities of the governmental and regulatory framework on nuclear energy? .......... 24
What is Chinas nuclear technology know-how? ................................................................................... 25
What are the characteristics of Chinas nuclear fuel cycle? ................................................................... 25
What has Chinas nuclear policy been after the Fukushima accident in J apan? .................................... 26
Chinas Renewable Energies Present and Future .............................................................................. 26
What are Chinas renewable energy resources for the production of electricity? .................................. 26
What are Chinas geothermal energy sources? ...................................................................................... 27
Will biomass play an important role in Chinas energy policies? .......................................................... 28
Will China meet its targets for renewable energies? .............................................................................. 28
Is the grid strong enough to cope with the renewable energy produced? ............................................... 29
What are the plans for the electricity distribution network? .................................................................. 31
Where does Chinas renewable energy policy place it globally? ........................................................... 31
References ................................................................................................................................................. 33
ReportfortheIHEST 6

ReportfortheIHEST 7

Chinas Energy Situation in a Nutshell
How has Chinas energy consumption evolved in recent years?
Intenyears,theenergyconsumptionhasincreasedbymorethan50%inChina,aswellasinotherEast
AsianandMiddleEasterncountries.
Since2009,ChinahasbeenconsumingmoreenergythantheUnitedStates.
TheindividualenergyconsumptioninChinahasalsomorethandoubledoverthepast10years,but
individualconsumptionisstillwellbelowconsumptionlevelsreachedbycountrieslikeCanada,Norway,
theUnitedStatesortheEuropeanUnion.
([44],[79])
Can China meet the increasing energy demand?
Yes.OverthepasttenyearsenergyproductionpercapitahasmorethantripledinChina.
However,Chinasdomesticenergysourcesarenotsufficient.
Chinaisobligedtoimportcrudeoilandnaturalgas.Althoughitscoalproductionissufficienttocoverits
needs,Chinaimportsabout5%ofthecoalituses(seeFigure1).
Figure1:DifferencebetweenprimaryenergyproductionandconsumptioninChina([44]).
ReportfortheIHEST 8

Acombinationoffactorsseemstobethecauseofthis,themainonebeingalackofsuitabletransport
facilitieswithinthecountry.TheBAUscenariopredictsthatby2030,importswillmakeupbetween23
and45%ofChinascoalconsumptionandthathalfoftheworldsinternationalcoaltradewillbe
destinedforChina.
Crudeoilproductiononlycovered42%ofdomesticdemandin2011andthisproportionhasbeen
steadilydecliningby5%peryearforthepasttwentyyears.Chinahasbecometheworldsthirdlargest
importerofcrudeoil,aftertheEUandtheUnitedStates.ChinaisSaudiArabiaslargesclient,aheadof
theUnitedStates.IranisthethirdlargestproviderofcrudeoiltoChinaandexpertsconsiderthistobe
themainreasonbehindChinasdiplomaticsupporttothiscountry.
Figure2:Chinascoalandcrudeoilimportsbycountry([35]).
Chinasdependenceonnaturalgasremainsnegligible,asitsconsumptionismarginal.
Thereispracticallynocrossborderexchangeofelectricity.
([4],[35],[44],[60],[70]p.329)
Are Chinas primary energy resources close to its great economic centres?
No.CarbonisthealmostexclusiveprimaryenergysourceinChinaandtheminesarelocatedinthe
NorthandNorthwestofthecountry,farfromthecoastalregionsoftheSoutheast,wherethemain
economiccentreslie.ThisrepresentsarealproblemfortheChineseeconomy,asitsgrowthisslowed
downbythelimitedcapacitiestotransportthecoal.Theproblemhasbeenaggravatedinrecenttimes
bytheminesmovefurtherwest(Figure3).
ReportfortheIHEST 9

Figure3:(A)Thelocationofcoalminesandmainpowerconsumption;(B)thelocationofnuclearpower,(C)thelocationof
hydropowerbasesand(D)Chinassevenindividualgridsystems([57]).
Untiltheendofthe1990s,thecoalwastransportedbytrucksandtrains(itstillrepresentsabouthalfof
therailwaycommoditytransportation),nowsomeofthecoalisalsobeingtransportedbyrailtothe
portsoftheNortheastandthenshippedtotheSoutheastprovinces.Thereareplanstoincreasefluvial
transport,especiallyontheYangziJiang(therivercrossingShanghai),butthetrafficontheriversis
alreadyratherheavy(Figure4).
Figure4:CoaltransportbybargesontheYangziJiangRiverinShanghaiinJanuary2013.
ReportfortheIHEST 10

Anothersolutionistotransportelectricityratherthancoal.Only5%oftheenergycomingfromChinas
Westtothecoastalregionscomesintheformofelectricity.Theproportioncouldrisetoafourthby
2020,ifthetargetsoftheStrongandSmartGridPlanaremet.Atthemoment,24outof31provinces
experienceregularelectricityblackouts,becauseofinsufficientsupplycapacities.
([5],[22],[37]p.56,[40],[57])
What are the likely trends for Chinas energy mix?
Thetwomoststrikingtrendsarethattotalenergyconsumptionwillatleastdoubleby2030(forboth,CIS
andAISseeTable1),whilsttheshareofcoalwilldecreasesharply.Itwas73%in2005andwilldrop
below50%by2050,forbothscenarios.
Theshareofpetroleumwillincreasebecauseofthetransportsector.Itisexpectedtoberesponsiblefor
twothirdsofpetrolconsumptionin2050,whichisbasicallythepercentagecurrentlyobservedinthe
UnitedStates.
Energyconsumptionwillalsocontinueincreasingoverthenextfewdecades,drivenbythegrowthofthe
tertiarysectorandurbanisation(79%oftheChinesepopulationwillliveincitiesby2050,upfrom50%in
2011).Commercialbuildingswillberesponsibleforathirdofelectricityconsumptionin2050.
Year Scenario
Primary energy consumption by sector (Mtoe)
Agriculture Industry Transportation Tertiary Residential
2005
Reference
Year
47 3 1,021 65 173 11 110 7 204 13
2030
CIS 37 1 2,008 55 657 18 548 15 402 11
AIS 31 1 1,815 58 626 20 344 11 313 10
2050
CIS 77 2 1,805 47 806 21 691 18 461 12
AIS 32 1 1,627 51 734 23 447 14 351 11
Table1:ProbableevolutionofprimaryenergyconsumptioninChina,accordingtotheLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory
([15]p.32).
([7],[15]p.xiii,pp.2528,p.32,[43],[79])
What are Chinas targets for the reduction of its CO
2
emissions?
TheincreaseinCO
2
concentrationsintheatmosphereisduetotheWesternCountries.ChinasCO
2
emissionspercapitaareconsiderablybelowthatoftheEUandtheUnitedStates.

Figure5:CumulativeemissionsofCO
2
fromenergy,from1900to2009(originofarrows)and1900to2030(arrowtips)([25]
p.235).
ThisdoesnotkeepChinafromhavingaveryproactiveagendaforenergysavingandthereductionof
greenhousegasemission.
In2009ChinaformallycommitteditselftoreduceitsCO
2
emissionsperGDP(inotherwordsitscarbon
intensity))by4045%comparedto2005levels.Italsoplanstoincreasetheproportionofnonfossil
energyinitsprimaryenergyconsumptionto15%by2020.Itwouldthusmeettheexpectationsofthe
UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)formulatedforChina.
([25]p.235,[64]pp.49,[69])
What actions have been taken to reach those targets?
Chinas11
th
FiveYearPlan(20062010)includedseveralpoliciesforenergyconservationandadecrease
ofGHGemissions.Numerousprogrammeswerestartedinthatperiod(seeTable2),concentratingon
improvingthemostenergyintensiveindustries(TenKeyProjectsandTop1000)andclosingsmallplants
(smallpowerstations,cement,steel,ironandcoking).
Programme Primary energy saving (Mtoe) Emission reduction (Mt CO
2
)
Ten Key Projects 188 743
Buildings energy efficiency 78 348
Overlap Ten Keys & Buildings efficiency -78 -348
Top-1000 energy consuming enterprises programme 91 235
Overlap Ten Key Projects & Top-1000 -22 -67
Small plant closure 83 222
Appliances standard & labelling 55 167
Provinces programmes and others 802 2973
Total
1,196 4,273
Table2:Thevariousenergyconservationprogrammes,20062008([13]).

Inaddition,ChinaparticipatesintheUnitedNationsCleanDevelopmentMechanismprogramme.
TheprogrammewasaresultoftheKyotoProtocol;acompanyinanindustrializedcountryimplements
anemissionreducingprojectinadevelopingcountry.Itcanthusearnemissionreductioncreditsforits
owncountry.Chinaisoneofthemainbeneficiariesoftheprogramme,allowingittospeedupthe
modernizationofitsenergyproductionandreduceitsCO
2
emissions.
TheadvantageforChinaisthreefold:
Itattractsforeigninvestorsforthedevelopmentofrenewableenergy.
IthelpsidentifyinginnovativesectorstolimittheemissionofGHG.
ItallowsChinatogainexpertiseataninternationallevelincontrollingGHGemissions.
([13],[52],[65]pp.45)
Chinas R&D on Clean Energies
What is Chinas role in the global research on clean energies?
Chinatendstohaveamoreopenapproachregardinginnovationandismorewillingtotestnew
technologiescomparedtoWesterncountries.Itisalsocurrentlystilllackingthenecessarytechnological
knowhowincleanenergytechnology.Ithasthusoptedtoimportthetechnologyby,forexample,
offeringforeignfirmsthepossibilitytorunfullscaletestsinChinausingtechnologiestheyhave
developed.
ThispassagefromR&Dtothedemonstrationofthetechnicalandeconomicfeasibilityisacrucialstepin
theprocessofinnovation.InWesterncountriestheindustrysectortendstobereticenttofinancesuch
tests,asthefirstinstallationsaregenerallyveryexpensiveandnotyetveryreliable.
Thetechnologywasdevelopedhere,testedinChinaandisnowfindingamarkethere.astheCEOofa
largeAmericancompanysumsitup.Bothpartiesgainfromthis:theforeigncompanygetsachanceto
testanewtechnology;Chinareceivesadirectaccesstothemostcuttingedgetechnologyand
innovation.
Forexample,theChinesecompanyStateNuclearPowerTechnologyCorporationisbuildingthefirst
nuclearreactorsusingWestinghousesAP1000technology.Theexperiencegainedwillhelp
WestinghousetoobtainconstructionpermitsforAP1000reactorsintheUnitedStates.Westinghouse
andStateNuclearPowerTechnologyCorporationhaveactuallycreatedajointventuretobuildmore
powerfulreactorsderivedfromAP1000.TheChinesecompanyownspartoftheintellectualproperty
rightsonthesenewreactors.
([29],[41],[45],[68])

Which clean energy technologies are being tested in China?
TheprojectsinstalledinChinacovermostoftheresearchfieldsoncleanenergy,asTable3shows.
Category Technology
Development Status
11th Plan (2006-2010) 12th Plan (2011-2015)
Clean coal power
Ultra-supercritical (USC) 1000 MW USC 700 C USC
Integrated gasification combined
cycle (IGCC)
250 MW IGCC 400-500 MW IGCC
Large circulating fluidised bed
(LCFB)
600 MW SC-CFB
Coal to liquids (CTL)
Direct conversion 1 Mtoe
Indirect conversion 0.16 Mtoe
Coal to natural gas
Gasification-based 1.35 billion cubic meters
Hydromethanation-based 0.85 billion cubic meters
Carbon capture and storage
(CCS)
Pre-combustion capture
100 kt CO2 per coupled with
CTL project

CO2 storage by saline aquifer
Three projects (3kt, 10 kt and
120 kt CO
2
per year)

CO2-enhanced oil recovery (EOR) 100 kt CO2 per year 0.5 to 1 Mt CO2 par an
CO2-enhanced coal bed methane
(ECBM)
Demonstrated in the Qinshui
basin

Nuclear power
High temperature reactor 200 MW reactor
AP1000 1250 MW reactor
Fast reactor 20 MW reactor
Small modular reactor (SMR) Planned
Solar power
Solar photovoltaics 10 MW plant 100 MW plant
Concentrating solar power
Three projects (50 MW, 100
MW and 300 MW)
Wind power
Commercialisation of 1,5 to
3 MW turbines
Offshore wind farm with
6 MW
Biomass
Power generation
Commercialisation of 25 to
50 MW plants

Biofuels
Cassava to ethanol
conversion (200 000 tonnes
per year)
Cellulose to ethanol
conversion
Clean energy vehicles
Electric vehicle (EV)
Various EVs have been
tested in several cities

Alternative-fuel vehicle
Various essays with
alternative fuels have been
carried out.

Hybrid-electric vehicle
Various essays have been
carried out.

Synthetic utilization of
multiple energy resources
Wind-solar 100 MW plant
Hydro-solar 10 MW plant
Power grid transmission and
transformation

1000 kV direct-current long-
distance transmission
Smart grid Planned
Table3:AdvancedcleanenergytechnologiesinChinaduring20062015([68]).
([68])

How is the R&D on renewable energies evolving in China?
Inthemid90s,Chinesecompaniesinvestedheavilyintechnologyacquisition,whilsttheirR&Dbudget
wasrathersmall.Sincethen,companieshavecontinuouslyincreasedtheirR&Dexpenditure,reducing
theirtechnologyacquisitions(Figure6).
Figure6:ExpendituresonR&DandtechnologyacquisitionbyChineselargeandmediumsizedenterprises(LMEs),19952010
([68]).
Enterprisesaccountfor74%ofthetotalR&DexpenditureinChina.TheR&Dthereforemainly
concentratesonmasteringcleanenergytechnologiesimportedfromdevelopedcountriesandmaking
secondaryinnovations.Fundamentalresearchisstillmostlycarriedouteitherinthedevelopedcountries
orbyforeignownedcompaniesinChina.
Forexample,in2010,sevencompanieswereforeignamongstthetopten,whichhadfiledforthelargest
numbersofpatentsinChinaonwindenergy,sharing83%oftotalpatents(Figure7showsthenumbers
forwindturbinetechnology).Chinesecompaniestendedtofileforutilitymodels.
Figure7:WindturbinetechnologypatentsapplicationinChina(19902010)([31]).Utilitymodel:Therequirementsfor
acquiringautilitymodelarelessstringentthanforpatents.Toqualifyforapatent,aninventionhastobenew,havean
inventivestepandbecapableofbeingmadeorusedbysomekindofindustry.Toqualifyfortheutilitymodel,theinvention

hasstilltobenew,buttheothertwocriteriaarelessstringentorevenabsent,dependingonthecountry.Utilitymodelsoffer
lessprotectionandarecheaperthanpatents.
([21],[31],[68])
Is there a pattern in the innovation process in China?
Yes,andthispatternisnotlimitedtoR&Donrenewableenergies.Thewindenergysectorisagood
exampleforthedifferentstepsintheinnovationprocess(illustratedinamoredetailedmannerinFigure
8):
1. From19701996,thegovernmentstronglyencouragedR&Dactivities,accompaniedbytechnology
imports.
2. From19972004,innovationwasbasedontheimportedtechnologies(secondaryinnovation).
3. From20042007,thesufficienttechnicalknowhowhavingbeenacquired,Chineseandforeign
companiesstarteddesigningandproducingtogetherinjointventures.
4. Since2008,Chineseinnovationhasbecomemoreautonomous,thankstotheinternationalizationof
thecompaniesandtheglobalizationoftheirR&D.
Figure8:Thedynamicsamongtechnologycapability,innovationmode,marketformation,andwindenergypolicy([21]).
Goldwind(GW)China;JacobsUnitedStates;RepowerGermany;SinovelChina;VensysGermany.
TheChinesewindpowerindustryisaparticularlyinterestingexample,asitnowoccupiesavery
prominentroleonaglobalscale:
1. FouroftheglobaltoptenwindturbinemanufacturersareChinese(2010).

2. Chinaisworldwidethesecondlargestproducerofwindenergy(63GW),behindtheEuropeanUnion
(97GW)andaheadoftheUnitedStates(47GW)(2011).
([21],[26]p.82,p.98)
How is Chinas renewable energy market organized?
Thepublicauthoritiesfixtheresalepriceforelectricity.Aguaranteedfeedintariffcompensatesmoreor
lessforthedifferencewiththeproductioncosts.
Thehydropowersectorisstateowned.
Theoretically,thewindpowermarketisopentocompetition,butstateownedenterpriseshavedefacto
themonopolyoverwindpoweredelectricityproduction.
ThelargephotovoltaicprojectsarecofinancedbyChina,foreigngovernments(likeCanada,Germany
andJapan)andinternationalinstitutions(liketheWorldBank).
Theproductionofelectricityfrombiomassisthemostopenmarket.TheBigFive(thefivebiggeststate
ownedelectricitycompanies)own39%ofthemarket,privateChineseorforeignownedcompanieshave
27.5%,otherChinesestateownedcompanies23.5%andcompaniesownedbythelocalauthoritieshave
10%ofthemarket,whichisalsothemostprofitableone.
Therearefivelargefuelethanolplants;twomajorstateownedoilcompaniesandalargeagribusiness
companyareengagedthroughstockholdings.
Thebiodieselproductionismuchmorescattered.Threelargestateownedcompaniesandagreat
numberofsmallcompaniessharethemarket.
3,000companiesmakeupthesolarwaterheatermarket,thetenlargestsharesaquarterofthemarket.
Thereisnobiogasmarket:farmersaccountfor85%ofthebiogasproduction;thepublicauthoritieshave
financedtheirequipment.
([24],[36],[37]p.56,[50],[51],[53])
Does China encourage the development of renewable energy financially?
TherapiddevelopmentenvisagedbyChinasgovernmentwillrequirehundredsofbillionsofUSDollars
fromtodayuntil2020.Theverylargestateownedcompaniestendtobethesolebeneficiariesofthe
fundsmobilisedbythecentralgovernment(throughtheChinaDevelopmentBank)andtheinternational
organisations(liketheWorldBankandtheAsiaDevelopmentBank),offeringlongtermloanswith
interestratesof34%.Theothercompanieshaveaccesstobankloansatmuchlessfavourable
conditions:shorttermloanswithinterestratesbetween68%.
Thestatehascreatedafavourableregulatoryandfinancialenvironmentincludingtaxcreditsandfeed
intariffs.Thelocalauthoritieshavetheirownsupportsystemforrenewableenergies,focusingonland

pricesorlandandpropertytaxes.Provincescansetpreferentialongridelectricity(orpurchase)prices
(Figure9).
Figure9:Ongrid(purchase)tariffbygenerationtechnology(left)andbyregion(right)([14]).1RMB=US$0.16=0.12.
Despitetheseefforts,windenergyproductionisrarelyandsolarphotovoltaicenergyproductionnever
profitable.Tocompensate,anadditionaltaxhasbeenleviedin2012onallelectricitysales.
Thereisonenotableexceptiontothisgeneralpolicyofsubsidies:thesolarwaterheaters.Their
installationhassimplybecomemandatoryinallnewbuildingsanditisexceptionalthatlocalauthorities
helpfinanciallytocomplywiththis.Itistheonlycasewherethereturnoninvestmentisfast.
([14],[36],[37]pp.8790,[58],[59],[66])
What is the USChina Clean Energy Research Center (CERC)?
In2009,theAmericanpresidentandtheChinesepresidentannouncedthecreationofCERC.Itsmission
istoreinforcethecollaborationoncleanenergyR&D.Bothcountriesgiveanequalfinancialsupport,
withtheUnitedStatessupportingAmericanresearchersandChinasupportingChineseresearchers.
TheinitialbudgetisUS$150millionoverfiveyears.Itshouldincreasethankstocontributionsfrom
industry.
Themainresearchareasare:
Advancedcoaltechnology(energyefficiency,reductioninpollutantemissions,CCS).
Buildingsenergyefficiency(indepthknowledgeofenergyconsumptionandinnovativeclimate
controlandlightingtechnologies).
Cleanvehicles(electriccar,innovativematerials).
Inallcases,theR&Dincludesthebuildingofdemonstrationplantsormodels.Anadhoccommittee,
allowsthemembersoftheindustrytogivetheiropiniononthepertinenceoftheprojectsfinancedby
theCERC.

Theeconomicinterestandsocialacceptabilityoftheinnovationsarealwaystakenintoconsideration.
([42]pp.24,pp.1021,pp.40117,[80])
Fossil Fuel Technology in China Present and Future
Which are the most efficient coalfired powered plants?
Thereareseveralmethodstoestimatetheefficiencyofacoalfiredpowerplant.Onecanchoose,for
example,thecostoftheelectricityproduced,thequantityofcoalused,theCO
2
emissionsorthe
emissionofotherpollutants(likesulphurandnitrogenoxides).Table4givesanestimateforthese
differentcriteria.Thenumbersvaryaccordingtodifferentsources,ifonly,becausethequalityofthe
coalusedcanvaryconsiderably.
Generallyspeaking,though,theultrasupercriticalandtheIGCCpowerplantsarethemostefficient,as
wellasthemostmodern.
Type of power plant Sub-critical Super-critical
Ultra-
supercritical
(IGCC)
Power 300 MW 600 MW 1,000 MW 600 MW
Energy Efficiency 34 to 38 % 38 to 41 % 43 to 45 % 38 to 44 %
GHG ( kg CO2/MWh equivalent) 872 to 931 746 to 830 720 to 738 731 to 832
SO2 emission (kg/MWh) 1.03 0.97 0.90 0.10
NO
2
emission (kg/MWh) 0.54 0.50 0.47 0.39
Electricity cost (data for 2007 in $/MWh) 48.4 47.8 46.9 51.3
Table4:EnergyEfficiency,pollutantemissionsandelectricitycostofcoalfiredpowerplants,bytypeoftechnologyand
power.ThecostoftheelectricityproducedreferstotheUnitedStates([8]p.19,p.30,[48],[54]).
Thesubcritical,supercriticalandultrasupercriticalplantsdifferinthetemperatureandthepressureof
thesteamusedtodrivetheturbines:560Cat180bar,575Cat221bar,morethan600Cand300bar,
respectively.Themostadvancedultrasupercriticalplantsevenexceed700Cand375bar.
TheIGCCplantsarebasedonacompletelydifferentprinciple.Partialoxidationofthecoalproducesa
gasmadeupofcarbonmonoxide(CO)andhydrogen(H
2
),whichisthenusedinacombinedcycle
combustionturbinegenerator.
([3],[8]pp.1742,[48],[54])
Is the efficiency of Chinas coalfired plants increasing rapidly?
Yes.Sincethe11
th
FYP,Chinahasprivilegedtheconstructionofmoreefficientandlesspollutingplants,
whilstclosingdowntheoldones(GuidelineforBuildingLargeOnesandShuttingDownSmallOnes).
Bytheendof2012,halfoftheplantshadadesigncapacityof600MWorabove(supercriticalandultra
supercritical,seeTable5).

Date of construction
Less than 300 MW
Sub-critical
Between 300 and 600
MW
Sub-critical
Between 600 and 1000
MW
Super-critical
More than 1000
MW
Ultra- supercritical
%
1984-1996 19 43 6 0 25
1997-2003 6 41 15 0 23
2004-2011 2 28 85 27 52
% 10 41 39 10
Table5:Chinascoalfiredpowerplantsin2012,bydateofconstructionandtypeoftechnology([75]).
Theinstalledcapacitymorethandoubledbetween2005and2011andhastripledbetween2002and
2011(electricitycapacityin2002:37.9GW;2005:59.6GW;2011:128.7GW).
Since2008,theChinesepowerplantsareonaveragemoreefficientandhavelowerCO
2
emissions
comparedtotheirAmericancounterparts(Figure10).
Figure10:Energyefficiency(lefthandside)andcarbonintensity(righthandside)oftheChineseandtheAmericancoalfired
powerplants([25]p.278).
([25]p.278,[48],[54],[75])
Which have been the main steps in improving the coalfired power plants in
China?
Thesamephasesfoundintheinnovationprocessonrenewableenergies(discussedintheprevious
section):
Atechnologyisimportedfromaforeigncompany;oncetheChinesecompanyhasacquiredthe
necessaryknowhow,itwillmakelocalimprovements(secondaryinnovation).Thisstepisfollowedby
thecreationofajointventurebetweenthetwocompanies,withacommondesignandproduction.
Onecanfindthesephasesateverychangeoftechnology(subcritical,supercriticalandultra
supercritical)(Table6).

Technology Year Technology Origin Supplier country
Sub-critical
1980 Import and secondary innovation United States
1989
Cooperation with the foreign companies for the
design and construction

Super-critical
1992
Import (and secondary innovation)
Switzerland
2000 J apan
2004

Ultra-supercritical
2003 Import (and secondary innovation)
J apan
Germany
2006

Table6:RoadmapofcleancoalpowergenerationlocalizationinChina([17]).
Table7showsthedifferentcooperationpartnersforSC/USCcoalfiredpowertechnologyofthree
Chinesemajorelectricgroups.Licensingisthemostfrequentform,buttherearealsosomejoint
ventures.
Chinese Group
Boiler Turbine Generator
Source Mechanism Source Mechanism Source Mechanism
Shanghai Electric Alstom License Siemens J oint venture Siemens J oint venture
Harbin Electric / supercritical Mitsui Babcock License Mitsubishi License Toshiba License
Harbin Electric / ultra-supercritical Mitsubishi License Toshiba License Toshiba License
Dongfang Electric Babcock-Hitachi J oint venture Hitachi License Hitachi License
Table7:TechnologysourcesandcooperationmechanismsofSC/USCcoalfiredpowertechnologyofthreeChinesemajor
electricgroups([17]).
GreenGenisaprojectledbyaconsortiumofChinasbiggestpowercompanies,theChinesestateandan
Americancompany(thelargestprivatesectorcoalcompanyintheworld).Theaimistodesignandbuild
anIGCC(integratedgasificationcombinedcycle)coalfiredpowerplantwithCCS(carboncaptureand
storage)technology.A250MWIGCCplanthasbeeninoperationsinceApril2014.Thenextstepisthe
constructionofa400MWIGCCplantwithCCS.
([17],[32])
Will China resort to carbon capture and storage in its coalfired power plants?
The12
th
FiveYearPlandoesnotincludeCCS,asthetechniquewillnotbefullyoperationalinthe
immediatefuture.
However,ChinadoespursueactiveresearchonCCSandhasdrawnlevelwiththeEuropeanUnion
regardingthenumberofpatentsfiled(Table8).
Country Patents (%)
J apan 27.7
United States 23.5
European Union 13.5
China 11.1
Table8:PatentsfiledonCCS,bycountry(72).

Thereisaconsiderabledifferencebetweenthesizeofthepilotplantsinstalledandtheprojects
envisagedbynumerouscountries,includingChina.Andeventhoseprojectswillonlybedemonstration
plants(Table9).
Country
Operational Projects
Number Capacity Number Capacity
European Union 5 14 MW - 48 MW 7 250 MW 1,200 MW
United States 4 1 MW - 30 MW 9 60 MW 1,000 MW
China 1 24 MW 2 250 MW - 350 MW
Australia 1 30 MW - -
Norway - - 1 400 MW
Table9:CoalfiredpowerplantscoupledwithCCS,bycountryanddevelopmentstage(situationasofFebruary2012)([76]).
ThemainobstacleistheadditionalcostoftheCCS.Giventhepresentsituation,CCSwillonlybe
profitableifemissionswillbetaxedatUS$70pertonC0
2
.Wearefarfromit.InChina,onetonofCO
2
costsaboutUS$15inthoseareassubjecttoanemissiontradingsystemandacarbontax.
([61],[62],[65],[71],[73],[74],[76])
What about coal conversion in China?
ChinapursuesastrongR&Doncoalconversionbecauseitpossesslargereservesofcoalandonlylittleoil
andnaturalgas.However,theprojectshavenotgonebeyonddemonstrationplants(Table10).
Final product
Number of
projects
Total final production
capacity (Mtoe/year)
Synthetic natural gas 4 13.5
(Liquid) fuel 6 1.9
Raw materials for the chemical industry 3 1.0
Table10:Demonstrationplantsandprojectsforcoalconversion,byproduct([18]).
Therearevariousreasonsforthis:
1. Thepriceofcoalhassoaredinrecentyears.Thepricedifferencebetweencoalandcrudeoilor
naturalgashasbecometoosmalltomakecoalconversionprofitable.
2. Thecoalminesareinratheraridregions,yetcoalconversionconsumesenormousamountsofwater
(15tofwateraneededtoproduceonetonneofmethanol;10tofwaterareneededforasingle
tonneoffuel).
Thecentralgovernmenthaslowereditsambitionssincethebeginningofthenewmillenniumandthe
12
th
FiveYearPlanputstheemphasisonR&D.Thelocalgovernmentsofcoalproducingprovinces,
however,arestilleagertodeveloplargecoalconversionprojects.Theyseethisasawaytodevelopthe
localeconomy,buttheprojectshardlystandanychancebecauseoftheamountofwaterrequired.
NotethatChinaconsumed75Mtoeofnaturalgasand433Mtoeoffuelin2010.
([2],[12],[18],[37]pp.6973,[46])

What is China doing to reduce air pollution caused by fossil fuel?
Chinahasmadeconsiderableprogresssincethebeginningofthenewmillennium,butairpollutionlevels
remainveryhigh(Figure11).
Figure11:AverageannualSO
2
(left)andNO
2
(right)concentrationsobservedforthe10largestcitiesinJapanandChina,
19702009(g/m
3
)([25]p.251).
Thepowerstationsareresponsiblefor45%oftheairpollutionwithsulphuroxidesandparticulate
matter,becausetheyoftenlackfluegastreatmentequipment.In2011,only14%ofthecoalfiredpower
stationshaddenitrizationsystemsandstill20%lackedadesulphurizationsystem.Therehasbeenno
progressintheotherhighlypollutingindustries(likesteelandcement)overthepastdecade.
Chinabegantoaddressairpollutionduringthe11
th
FiveYearPlan,withtheaimtoreduceSO
x
emissions
by10%overthatperiod.Itsurpassedthistarget,obtaininga14%reduction.The11
th
FiveYearPlandid
notcontainanytargetsforNO
x
emissions.
The12
th
FiveYearPlansetsouttoreduceNO
x
emissionsby10%andSO
x
emissionsbyanother8%.The
powerindustryisopposingthisplan,astheylackthefinancialmeanstoacquirethenecessary
equipment.Thedebatewastakingplaceatamoment,whenthefivebiggestelectricitycompanieshad
lostatotalofUS$3billionbecausethepriceofcoalhadincreaseby150%,butthefeedintariffonlyby
32%.
([6],[25]p.251,[27],[33],[37]pp.5657,[43],[48])
Will China start exploiting nonconventional gas reserves?
Chinasunconventionalgasreservesarenotwellknown,butspecialiststhinktheymightbeconsiderable
(Figure12).Theybelievethatby2015annualproductionoftightgascouldreach27Mtoe,ofshalegas5
Mtoeandofcoalbedmethaneandcoalminemethane11Mtoe.

Figure12:Chinasgasresourcesbytype.Totalreservesareestimatedat92000Mtoe([37]p.63).
Chinalacksexperienceintheexploitationofshalegas.Evenmoreso,astheproblemitfacesisa
particularlydifficultone:Shalegasexplorationusesatechniquecalledhydraulicfracturing,which
requiresverylargequantitiesofwater,butChinasreserveslieinregionswithseverewaterscarcity.
Chinaistryingtoacquirethenecessaryknowhowbyteamingupwithlargeforeigngroups.Agreements
existbetweenseveralAmericancompaniesand,recently,Total.Ineachcase,ajointventurehasbeen
createdwithaChinesepetroleumcompanytoexploreandexploitthereserves.Chineselawexcludes
foreigncompaniesfromexploitingfossilfuelreservesinChinawithoutaChinesepartner(throughajoint
venture).
Analternativeistoinvestinforeigncompanies,whohavethenecessaryexpertiseandthusgain
technologyandoperationalknowhow.ThisisthereasoningbehindChinaslargeinvestmentsin
Canadiancompaniesin2011and2012.
([28],[34],[37]p.36,pp.4647,pp.5859,pp.6265,[49],[70]pp.341344)
Nuclear Energy in China Present and Future
Which have been the milestones in Chinas civilian nuclear programme?
Theciviliannuclearsectorwascreatedinthe1970s,basedontheknowledgefromthenuclearweapons
programme.
Chinasigneditsfirstinternationalcooperationagreementonciviliannuclearenergyin1978,with
France.In1983,itjoinedtheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency.Since1994,Chinahasbeenconnecting
onenuclearreactorperyearonaverage.
ChinaGuangdongNuclearPowerGroup(CGNPC),ChinaNationalNuclearCorporation(CNNC)andthe
ChinaPowerInvestmentCorporation(CPIC)(thenucleartroika)dominatethemarket.
Allreactorsarealongthecoastalprovincesandcooledwithseawater.

Figure13:NumberofnuclearreactorsinoperationinChina([82]).
In1983ChinaandFrancesignedatechnologytransferagreement,whichincludedtheconstructionof
nuclearpowerplants.ThefirstplantwasdesignedandlargelyconstructedbyFranceandstarted
operatingin1994.
ChinathendecidedontheconstructionofthreefurtherreactorsandplacedorderswithFrance,Canada
andRussia.Theplantswereputintooperationin2002,2003and2006.TheorderwithFrancewasa
continuationofthe1983agreement,whilsttheothertwowereturnkeyprojects(theydidnotincludea
technologytransfer).
In2007,ChinasignedcontractswiththeUnitedStates,FranceandRussiafortheconstructionofthird
generationnuclearpowerplantsincludingtechnologytransfer.
ItalsocontinuesbuildinggenerationIIreactors,toansweritsshorttermneeds(28reactorswereunder
constructionin2013).
([38],[41],[82],[20],[84])
What are the particularities of the governmental and regulatory framework on
nuclear energy?
Politicsanddiplomaticrelationshipsplayanimportantroleinthissector(theadoptionofaRussianVVER
designshortlyaftertheChernobylaccidentforexample),whichisoneofthereasonsChinahasanumber
ofdifferentreactortechnologiesinuse.
Planning,approvalandlicensingnuclearreactorsisalwayscomplex,butparticularlysoinChina,where
therearemanygovernmentorganisationssometimeswithoverlappingornotclearlydefinedand
delimitedresponsibilities(aproblemalsofoundintheoilsector).
AproblemnotuniquetoChina,butperhapsmoreexacerbatedthere,istheinfluencepoliticianshavein
thevariousinstitutions.TheheadsofthelargecompaniesareoftenappointedbythePremierofthe
StateCouncil(forexamplethepresidentandvicepresidentofCNNC)andarefrequentlyhighranking

officialsoftheCommunistParty.Thismayleadtothesituationwheretheheadoftheregulatorybody
hasthesameoraninferiorrankthantheheadofthecompanyheissupposedtoregulate.
ItisperhapseasytoassumethatasChinaisasinglepartystate,policydecisionscanbetakenand
implementedeasilyatanationallevel.Butthefragmentationofthedecisioncentres(atnationaland
locallevels)anddivergingopinionsbetweenthem,haveleadtosomewhatcontradictorypolicies.Ithas
alsocontributedtothediversityofreactordesignschosenforconstruction(ninein2013).
Thismeansthatthereislittlestandardizationinthisfield,makingtheconstructionofpowerplantsmore
expensive.Itmakesitalsomoredifficulttodrawupandimplementsafetystandardsandrules.
([20],[29],[11])
What is Chinas nuclear technology knowhow?
TheChinesenuclearindustryhasbeenautonomoussincethemid1990sandbuildsgenerationII
reactors.AlargeproportionofitsknowhowstemsfromthetechnologytransferwithFrance,dating
backfromthebeginningofthe80s.
TheChinesenuclearindustryispresentontheinternationalmarketasasingleplayer(exportsto
PakistanandRumania)ortogetherwithlargewesterngroups(likethepartnershipbetweenCGNPCand
EDFfortheconstructionofnuclearpowerplantsintheUnitedKingdom)
ChinaistheUnitedStatespartnerforthecommercialisationofthirdgenerationplants.
([55],[82],[81],[78])
What are the characteristics of Chinas nuclear fuel cycle?
Chinacallsonforeignsuppliersforeverystepofthefuelcycle,fromtheextractionofuranium,the
fabricationofthefuelrodstoreprocessing.
TheChineseminesonlycoveraquarterofitsneed.TheproblemwillbeaggravatedasChinaincreases
thenumberofnewreactors.Chinahasstartedjointventuresincountriessupplyinguraniuminorderto
secureitssupplies.Thepartnersareeitherstateownedcompanies(likeinKazakhstan)orlargeprivate
companies(likeArevafortheexploitationofresourcesinAfrica).
Russiabuiltalargeenrichmentplantinthe1990s,increasingitscapacitybetween20072011.
Chinaisdevelopingitsownenrichmenttechnologyandthefirstdomesticallyproducedcentrifugewas
commissionedinFebruary2013.
CNNCisresponsibleforthefuelfabrication,benefittingfromtechnologytransferredfromFrance,Russia
andtheUnitedStates.FuelreprocessingisbasedonBelgianandFrenchtechnologies.

Untilnow,spentfuelrodsweremainlystockedonthereactorsites.Thereareplanstocreatea
centralizedstoragefacilityforhighlyradioactivewaste,witharepository500munderground.Thesite
hasnotyetbeendecidedon,itshouldbeoperationalby2050.
([83])
What has Chinas nuclear policy been after the Fukushima accident in Japan?
OnthedaysfollowingtheFukushimaaccident,theChinesegovernmentsuspendedallnewprojectsand
orderedanindepthsafetyinspectionofallexistingplants,aswellastheplantsunderconstruction.
TwelveteamsfromtheInternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA)teamedupwiththeChineseNational
NuclearSafetyAdministration(NNSA).
In2012,thegovernmentpostponedtheconstructionofinlandreactors.Itadoptedanewsecurity
programmefornuclearreactors.Itimposesthatsecurityregulationsforthenuclearpowerplantsbe
conformtoIAEAstandards.ThePrimeMinisterhasformallysolicitedthepublicsopiniononthisissue.
Thegovernmentforeseesthatthe12
th
5YearPlanforNuclearSafetyandRadioactivePollution
PreventionandVisionfor2020willcostUS$13billionoverthenextthreeyears.
Asmentionedabove,Chinapossessesavarietyofdifferentreactordesigns,whichmakesitdifficultto
drawup,applyandverifysafetystandards.
ForeignobserversconsiderthattheNNSAmightnotbesufficientlyindependentfromtheinstitutions
chargedwiththeconstructionofthepowerplants.However,itshouldbenotedthattheNNSAworks
closelywiththeUSNuclearRegulatoryCommissionfortheconstructionofthirdgenerationreactors.
([29],[38],[41],[55],[82])
Chinas Renewable Energies Present and Future
What are Chinas renewable energy resources for the production of electricity?
Chinahaslargeresourcesforrenewableenergies.Itpossessesthestrongestpotentialforhydropower
worldwide.Itisesteemedat542GW,128ofitforsmallstations(lessthan50MW).Twothirdsofthe
possiblelocationsareinthewestofthecountry(Figure14).

Figure14:Distributionofwindenergyresources(left)andsolarenergysources(right)inChina([67]).
Chinaplanstodoubleitselectricityproductionfromrenewableenergiesbetween2010and2020(Table
11).
Energy source Potential (GW)
2010 2015 2020
Capacity
(GW)
Energy
generation
(TWh)
Capacity
(GW)
Energy
generation
(TWh)
Capacity
(GW)
Energy
generation
(TWh)
Hydro power 542 216 687 260 780 350 1,050
Wind power 800 44,7 50,1 100 190 200 377
Biomass 380 5,5 27,5 13 52 30 131
Solar Basically unlimited 0,9 0,6 15 21 50 70
Equivalent in Mtoe 66 90 140
Table11:Chinasplansforelectricitygenerationfromrenewableenergies([47],[53]).
Thebiomassusedforelectricityproductioncomesfromagriculturalresidues.
([47],[53],[66],[67])
What are Chinas geothermal energy sources?
Figure15showsthedistributionofChinasgeothermalsources.InTibettheyareusedfortheproduction
ofelectricity(themainstationhasacapacityof25MW),elsewheretheyareusedforwarmwater
productionandheatinghothouses.

Figure15:DistributionofChinasgeothermalsources([67]).
([67])
Will biomass play an important role in Chinas energy policies?
Chinaisplanningtogreatlyincreaseitsenergyproductionfrombiomass.
Table12sumsuptheobjectivesfixedbyMediumandLongTermDevelopmentPlanforRenewable
EnergyinChina(2007)fortheexploitationofbiomass.
2010 2020
Agricultural and forestry wastes, energy crops 4 GW 24 GW
Biogas 3.6 Mtoe and 1 GW 12.6 Mtoe and 3 GW
livestock farms 4,700 large projects 10,000 large projects
organic industrial effluent 1,600 large projects 6,000 large projects
Municipal waste 0,5 GW 3 GW
Biomass pellets
0.25 Mtoe 12.5 Mtoe
500 pilot installations
Biogas distribution network in rural areas
13.5 Mtoe 27 Mtoe
40 million households 80 million households
Biofuels from non-food grains
Bioethanol 1.3 Mtoe 6.3 Mtoe
Biodiesel 0.2 Mtoe 1.8 Mtoe
Table12:Roadmapfortheenergyproductionfrombiomass([1],[50]).
([1],[47],[50],[66],[67])
Will China meet its targets for renewable energies?
Almostallthetargetssetfor2010havebeenmetorevensurpassed(Table13).
Energy source Unit Situation in 2005 Situation in 2010 2010 Target
Hydro power GW 117.0 213.0 190
Biomass power GW 2.0 6.7 5.5

Energy source Unit Situation in 2005 Situation in 2010 2010 Target
Wind power GW 1.3 44.0 5
Solar photovoltaic power GW 0.1 0.8 0.25
Biogas consumption in rural areas Mtoe 7.2 15.1 13.5
Solar water heater Mtoe 6.3 12.2 12.9
Non-grain fuel ethanol Mtoe 0.0 0.2 1.3
Biomass briquette Mtoe 0.0 0.6 0.25
Biodiesel Mtoe 0.0 0.4 0.18
Table13:Targetsofthe2007renewableenergyplan,comparedtothesituationsin2005and2010([50]).Solarwaterheater:
1toe11.7squaremetersofsolarwaterheateronaverageinChina.
Theonemajorproblemistheproductionofbioethanolfromnonfoodgrains.Thedifficultiesarethe
sameasinEurope:
1. Theexistingagriculturallandisindispensableforfoodproduction.
2. Thecostistoohigh.
3. Theenergycropshaveanadverseeffectontheenvironment.
Biodieseldoesnotposetheseproblemsasitisproducedfromwasteoil.
Chinaposses65%oftheglobalcapacityforsolarwaterheaters,theequivalentof105kWhpercapita.
Still,onapercapitabasis,itonlyoccupiestheseventhposition,wellbehindIsrael,AustriaandGreece
(seeTable14).
Country Israel Austria Greece Turkey Germany Australia China Italy J apan
kWh/capita 451 390 310 152 134 106 105 97 38
Table14:Solarwaterheatercapacitypercapita,bycountry([77]p.55).
([1],[37]pp.131132,[50],[66],[77]pp.5456)
Is the grid strong enough to cope with the renewable energy produced?
No.Forexample,athirdofthewindenergyproducedin2010waslostbecauseoftheinadequacyofthe
powergrid(Figure16).Thisispartlyduetotheveryrapidandratheranarchicgrowthofthewindfarms.
Localauthoritiesandcompanieshavelaunchedamultitudeofsmallprojectstocircumventthelaw,
whichrequiresthestatesauthorizationfortheconstructionofwindfarmslargerthan50MW.

Figure16:Schematicofelectricitydeliveryfromthemainwindpowerbases([19]).
Anotherproblemliesinthedistancethatseparatesthewindfarms,mainlylocatedintheNorthwestof
thecountryandattheendofthepowergridandtheconsumptioncentres,locatedintheSoutheastof
thecountry(Figure17).Itiseasierandfastertobuildawindfarmthanahighvoltagetransmissionline
crossingChina.Europeisfacingthesameproblem,althoughthedistancesinvolvedaremuchsmaller.
Figure17:SchematicofElectricityDeliveryfromtheMainWindPowerBases([9]p.31).
Onegenerallycompensatesthevariabilityofwindpoweroutputwithhydropowerstations,whichcan
beactivatedondemand(socalledbackupcapacities).Butagain,thedistancesbetweenhydropower
andwindpowerstationsarelarge,astheformerareconcentratedintheSouthernprovinces.The
production,supplyanddemandhavetobecoordinatedoververylargedistances,requiringasocalled
smartgrid.
Thesesmartcontrolsystemsshowpromisingresultsatalocalscale:onewasinstalledinJiuquanGansu
province,connecting9windfarmswithatotalcapacityof210GW;itincreasedthepoweroutputby
14%onaverage.
However,theconstructionofasmartgridcoveringthewholeofChinaiswellbeyondthecurrent
technologicalknowhow.
([5],[9]pp.3032,[10]pp.67,pp.1113,pp.2835,[19],[23],[37]p.14,p.98,[56])

What are the plans for the electricity distribution network?
In2009,ChinaadoptedtheStrongandSmartGridPlanwithabudgetofUS$600billionandtheaimto
establishby2020acomplete,reliable,efficientandsmartpowergrid.
Duringthefirstphaseoftheproject,between20092010,preliminarytestwerecarriedoutin26
provinceswith228demonstrationprojects.
Themainpointsofthesecondphase(20112015),withabudgetofUS$300billion,are:
Theconstructionof200000kmofultrahighvoltage(1millionvolts)linesanddistributionnetworks
inurbanandruralareas.Thenetworkwilltotal900000km(threetimesEuropesnetwork).
Expansionofthesmartgridtechnology(realtimecontroloverthegridusingITtechnology)
Integrationofthelargewindfarms
Thepreferencegiventotheconstructionoftheultrahighvoltagelineshasmetwithcriticismfrom
eminentChinesespecialists,asthetechnologyisnotyetmature.Theyconsiderthatadistributed
networkusingveryhighvoltage(500000volts)wouldbeamoreeconomicandresilientsolution,calling
ontechniquesthatarealreadyperfectlycontrolled.
Chinasplantoextendthesmartgridtechnologyatanationallevel,hasalsometwithscepticism:Chinas
electricityproductionsystemasawholehasnotbeenconceivedforsuchadevelopmentandthemarket
forhouseholdapplicationsisnotmatureenough.
([5],[16],[30],[37]p.14,pp.93104,[63])
Where does Chinas renewable energy policy place it globally?
AccordingtotheErnst&YoungCountryAttractivenessIndices,Chinareceivesaveryfavourable
evaluation(Table15).
Country China Germany United States India France United Kingdom
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6
Global score 69.6 65.6 64.5 63.5 55.8 54.6
Wind index 76 68 62 63 58 62
Solar PV index 66 70 69 68 57 47
Biomass index 59 68 61 60 57 57
Geothermal index 50 58 67 44 34 35
Infrastructure 72 73 59 63 56 64
Table15:AllRenewablesIndex(globalscore)forthesixtopscoringcountriesinNovember2012([72]p.21).
Theindicesclassifycountriesontheattractivenessoftheirrenewableenergymarkets,energy
infrastructureandthesuitabilityforindividualtechnologies.Theindicesprovidescoresoutof100.
Eachrenewabletechnologyisgivenanindex(IndividualTechnologyIndex),composedofaRenewables
InfrastructureIndexandaTechnologyFactor.

TheRenewablesInfrastructureIndexofacountryconsiderstheelectricitymarketregulatoryandpolitical
risk,planningandgridconnectionissuesandaccesstofinance.
TheTechnologyFactoriscalculatedindividuallyforeachrenewableenergysourceandconsidersthe
incentivemeasuresandmarketgrowthpotential.
Eachcountrythenreceivesaglobalscore(AllRenewablesIndex),whichcombinestheIndividual
TechnologyIndices.
([59],[72]p.21,p.36)

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