21th May, 2014 Daily Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

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TOP Contents - Tailored for YOU
Latest News Headlines
PH palay output estimated to increase by 3.9% in H1
After Further Research, U.S. FDA Will Conduct a Risk Assessment of Arsenic in Rice
Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Quiet Overnight as Other Grains Turn Positive
Oryza Global Rice Quotes
Solution to Crimea Water Woes is Ditch Rice!
Ghana Gets Dutch Support to Boost Rice Production
Chinese Military Marching Towards Vietnam Border; Will Rice Exports to China Slow?
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today Currencies Little Changed
Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Remain Trapped Sideways as Tight U.S.
Supplies are Balanced by Bulging Global Stocks
Philippines Rice Prices Surge on Reduced Imports, Finds PIDS Study; Smuggling Remains Rampant
Fermented Rice Prevents Wrinkles?
Thailand Second Rice Crop Affected by Severe Drought
Mexico May Import Brazil Paddy Rice
Government of Thailand Proposes General Election on August 3. 2014; Thailand Army Declares
Martial Law to Maintain Law and Order
Brazil Paddy Rice Index Up from Last Week
Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes Unchanged Today

News Detail
PH palay output estimated to increase by 3.9% in H1


By Ronnel W. Domingo
Philippine Daily Inquirer
12:06 am | Wednesday, May 21st, 2014
Local palay output is expected to grow by 3.9 percent to 8.31 million tons in the first semester this year despite
the early effects of an anticipated dry spell, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority.The PSA attributes
such forecast to expectations that total harvest area might expand by 2.8 percent to 2.1 million hectares, while
yield per hectare might rise by 1 percent to 3.95 tons.In the first quarter alone, paddy rice production rose 3.3
percent to 4.31 million tons.For the second quarter, the PSA has pencilled in a 4.6-percent increase in output to
reach 4 million tons, based on standing crop.Also this quarter, total harvest area is expected to continue
expanding while yield is seen recovering.

The high price of palay encouraged more plantings thus, shifting from white corn to palay was noted in Ilocos
Region, and motivated farmers particularly in Nueva Ecija to immediately plant after the first quarter harvests,
the PSA said in a report.The expected overall increase in yield was attributed to the availability of irrigation
water and rainfall, more utilization of hybrid and certified seeds and other high yielding seed varieties and
increased fertilizer application due to lower prices.Agriculture officials have reiterated that the effects of the
expected occurrence of the El Nio phenomenon on crops may not be felt until the fourth quarter and would be
reflected in the harvest of early 2015.

On Monday, the Department of Agriculture announced that crops valued at a total of P823.29 million have so
far been lost to the early effects of a looming El Nio phenomenon.Based on preliminary assessment by the
DAs field units, corn farms were most affected with P583.6 million worth of losses.These involved 28,105
hectares with foregone harvest equivalent to 45,729 metric tons of corn.Agriculture officials said the DA would
provide affected farmers with seeds and other production inputs.The DA would also promote water-saving
measures among rice farmers and, push for the adoption of modern and innovative farming and fishery
technologies to mitigate the effects of the anticipated long dry spell.

Exclusive ORYZA NEWS
After Further Research, U.S. FDA Will Conduct a Risk Assessment of Arsenic in
Rice

May 20, 2014
An analysis of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) data of more than 1,300 samples of white rice by
a private non-profit organization found that the parboiled rice variety has the highest levels of inorganic arsenic,


with an average of 114 parts per billion (ppb), according to the Washington Post.The study of the FDA data also
shows that instant rice has the lowest level of arsenic, with an average of 59 ppb. Of the other types of U.S. rice,
the study showed that medium-grain rice from California has lower levels of inorganic arsenic than rice grown
in other parts of the U.S.

The study also found increased levels of arsenic in rice beverages that are used as milk substitutes, saying that
these should not be given to children below five years of age. The FDA also found arsenic in beer, which used
rice as an ingredient. Of 65 samples tested, it found that 10 of them contained inorganic arsenic levels between
the range 15 ppb to 26 ppb, while FDA prescribes an acceptable level of total arsenic at 10 ppb for federal
drinking water.Based on its full data, FDA will shortly conduct a risk assessment to help manage possible risks
associated with the consumption of rice and rice products, according to the FDA spokeswoman.
Arsenic is found in rice and other agricultural products, including fruit juice, in various parts of the world but
its impact on health is not entirely clear. Recent studies by the United Kingdom and India found that increased
intake of rice with high amounts of arsenic could lead to degeneration of cells in the body. The FDA has so far
not prescribed acceptable levels of arsenic in rice.

Tags: Arsenic rice, arsenic, rice nutrition, rice health

Oryza Overnight Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Quiet Overnight as Other
Grains Turn Positive
May 20, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery were paused 1 cent per cwt (about $0.22 per ton) higher overnight at
$15.370 per cwt (about $338 per ton) as of 8:00am Chicago time. The other grains are seen higher this morning
ahead of floor trading in Chicago: soybeans are currently seen about 0.4% higher, wheat was paused about 1%
higher, and corn is noted about 0.4% higher. U.S. stock index futures moved between small gains and losses
Tuesday, ahead of several retail first-quarter earnings reports. No major economic data is due on Tuesday. The
New York Federal Reserve's Bill Dudley will discuss the economy during the U.S. trading session, as will
Philadelphia Fed's Charles Plosser.

In Asia, equity markets were mostly higher on Tuesday, but the mood was cautious amid developments in
Thailand and as the Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting commenced. In Europe, shares traded flat, with
investor caution remaining about the possibility of policy action from the European Central Bank and upcoming
European Parliament elections. U.S. stock index futures are currently trading about 0.1% lower, gold is
currently trading about 0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 0.1% higher, and the U.S. dollar is currently
trading about 0.1% higher at 8:00am Chicago time.
Tags: U.S. rice prices; U.S. rice market; Chicago rough rice futures


Oryza Global Rice Quotes
May 20th, 2014

Long grain white rice - high quality
Thailand 100% B grade 380-390
Vietnam 5% broken 400-410
India 5% broken 420-430
Pakistan 5% broken 420-430
Cambodia 5% broken 435-445
U.S. 4% broken 580-590
Uruguay 5% broken 625-635
Argentina 5% broken 620-630

Long grain white rice - low quality
Thailand 25% broken 340-350
Pakistan 25% broken 385-395
Cambodia 25% broken 405-415
India 25% broken 380-390
U.S. 15% broken 555-565

Long grain parboiled rice
Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 405-415
Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd 435-445
India parboiled 5% broken stxd 395-405
U.S. parboiled 4% broken 660-670
Brazil parboiled 5% broken NQ
Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ

Long grain fragrant rice
Thailand Hommali 92% 930-940
Vietnam Jasmine 525-535
India basmati 2% broken NQ
Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ
Cambodia Phka Malis 855-865
Brokens
Thailand A1 Super 300-310
Pakistan 100% broken stxd 330-340
Cambodia A1 Super 350-360
India 100% Broken stxd 300-310


Egypt medium grain brokens NQ
U.S. pet food 470-480
Brazil half grain NQ
Medium grain milled
U.S. Calrose 4% broken 1070-1080
Egypt medium grain 6% NQ
All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com
Solution to Crimea Water Woes is Ditch Rice!
Crimea should stop cultivating rice, soybeans and corn if it needs to improve its water supply, Russian
Geographical Societys researcher Sergei Golubchikov suggested at a recent meeting on water woes. Try
vegetables, grapes and fruits, he added.Chairman of Crimea's State Council Vladimir Konstantinov also agrees
that not cultivating certain crops would help the peninsula conserve water.About 80%of Crimeas water comes
from the North Crimean Canal which links the peninsular with the Dnieper River.

Of this, more than two-thirds of water is used in farming. With the 60-year-old canal now in a crumbling state,
there is a loss of 50% of supplied water which affects the countrys rich rice harvest.Although water works are
under progress and incentives to farms that adopt drop irrigation systems are on offer, Crimea may not be able
to restore an efficient water supply until around 2019. In the meantime, the peninsular country is told to bid
goodbye to rice.

Tags: Crimea rice production
Ghana Gets Dutch Support to Boost Rice Production
The Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a non-profit international organization in Netherlands together with the World
Food Program will help Ghana increase rice production under a two-year project called "Procurement Governance for
Grown School Feeding Project", according to local sources.The project aims to help rice farmers in Ghana by providing
access to quality seeds, farm mechanization services, and appropriate technology for rice harvesting as well as post-
harvest management. Around euro 540,000 (around $740,345) will be spent to cultivate around 4,400 hectares of land,
and new and improved production techniques are expected to increase paddy yields by about two-and-half times to around
6.5 tons per hectare, according to the Manager of the project. He also noted that the project would help Ghana rice farmers
to be able to earn around $400 million every year from rice production.The Project Manager noted that improved
production facilities and logistics can lessen the gap between local rice production and imports, as well as increase
farmers' incomes.As Ghana's rice consumption is estimated to more than double to about 1.6 million tons from the current
700,000 tons over the next five years, increasing local rice production is imperative to reduce import bills. Ghana is a net
importer of rice and depends on imports to meet around 62% of its consumption needs. The country spent about $306
million in 2013 on rice imports as it could produce only 46% of the required supply of around 717,361 tons, according to
the Minister of Food and Agriculture. The government of Ghana planning to increase rice production by about 20% per
annum over the next four years to make Ghana self-sufficient in rice. The Agriculture Minister says the government is
targeting at least 13% surplus rice production by 2018.USDA estimates Ghana to produce about 352,000 tons rice and


import around 600,000 tons in MY 2013-14 (October 2013 - September 2014) to meet a consumption demand of around
975,000 tons.

Tags: Ghana rice production, Ghana rice imports

Chinese Military Marching Towards Vietnam Border; Will Rice Exports to China
Slow?
May 20, 2014
Chinese military troops are slowly, but steadily heading towards Vietnam's border suggesting that a conflict
between the countries is imminent. The developments are in the wake of the anti-China protests in Vietnam
after the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) started to set up an oil rig about 120 nautical miles
away from Vietnam waters near the Paracel islands.
China continued its attempts to capture the oil rig and has evacuated Chinese citizens living in Vietnam. while
Vietnam authorities have tried to quiet protestors.


There is concern that unrest over this issue could spill over into broader, national dissatisfaction with the
Communist Vietnam government, giving the nations officials a reason to keep things calm. If Vietnam rice
exports to China, a major destination for Vietnam rice exports (official and smuggled), are compromised there
is concern this could severely weigh on Vietnam rice prices.
Oryza Rice Currency Analysis for Today Currencies Little Changed

May 20, 2014
U.S. dollar index was up +0.05% from the open today, when it traded at 80.036 at the close.

Euro was weaker -0.06% by the close, trading around 1.3701 by end of day, after trading between an intraday
high of 1.3714 and low of 1.3678.

Thai baht was weaker -0.16%, trading at 32.540 at the close of business.

Indian rupee was weaker -0.08% at 58.6400.

Brazilian real was weaker -0.50% at the close of trading today, trading at 2.2181 reais per dollar.

Pakistan rupee was -0.19% weaker at 98.7655.

Vietnamese dong was weaker -0.11% at 21155.

Mexican peso was weaker -0.19% today, when it traded at 12.9253 pesos per dollar by the close of business.

Chinese yuan was weaker -0.01% at 6.2378.

Argentine peso was weaker -0.07% at 8.0616 pesos per dollar.

Tags: foreign exchange rates, rice currencies, Global rice trade

Oryza Afternoon Recap - Chicago Rough Rice Futures Remain Trapped Sideways
as Tight U.S. Supplies are Balanced by Bulging Global Stocks
May 20, 2014
Chicago rough rice futures for Jul delivery settled 2.5 cents per cwt (about $1 per ton) lower at $15.300 per cwt
(about $337 per ton). The other grains finished the day lower; soybeans closed about 1% lower at $14.6975 per


bushel; wheat about 0.6% lower at $6.7050 per bushel, and corn finished the day about 0.8% lower at $4.7350
per bushel.U.S. stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after a two-session rise, with the Fed's Bank of Philadelphia
President Charles Plosser saying the central bank might have to raise rates sooner than some would expect. If
the economy improves as forecast, the Fed's current taper pace may be too slow, Plosser said in prepared
remarks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 141.53 points, or 0.8 percent, to 16,370.33. The S&P 500 fell 13.83
points, or 0.7 percent, to 1,871.25, with industrials and telecommunications the poorest performing among its
10 major industry groups. The Nasdaq declined 34.10 points, or 0.8 percent, to 4,091.72. Gold is trading about
0.1% higher, crude oil is seen trading unchanged, and the U.S. dollar is seen trading about 0.1% higher at about
1:00pm Chicago time.Monday, there were 324 contracts traded, down from 415 contracts traded on Friday.
Open interest the number of contracts outstanding on Monday increased by 48 contracts to 8,388.
Tags: U.S. rice prices; U.S. rice market; Chicago rough rice futures

Philippines Rice Prices Surge on Reduced Imports, Finds PIDS Study; Smuggling
Remains Rampant

May 20, 2014
A study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS) found that a decline in official rice imports
led to surge in rice prices during 2013, not price manipulation by rice cartels. However, rice smuggling in the
Philippines continues to run rampant thanks to the huge difference in global rice prices and local rice prices, and
a reduction in official imports under the nations rice self-sufficiency efforts. While the Philippines tried to
reduce imports in hopes of boosting local production, the result was smuggled rice imports and higher
prices. PIDS researchers say the average domestic prices of milled rice increased to P34.16 per kilogram
(around $764 per ton) in December 2013, up about 15% from about from P29.81 per kilogram (around $664 per
ton) in January 2013 based on data from the Philippines Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS).

Over the same period, the Oryza White Rice Index fell about 5% from around $475 per ton fob in January 2013
to around $450 per ton in December 2013. The National Food Authority (NFA) imported only 205,700 tons in
2013, down about 76% from about 843,700 tons imported in 2012 due to the rice self-sufficiency program
initiated by the government. The program aimed at 100% self-sufficiency in rice production in 2013.Reduced
imports and natural calamities put further upward pressure on Philippines rice prices. Trade sources say
unofficial imports reached around one million tons in 2013. The surge in prices and rampant smuggling led the
government to reconsider its decision on reduction in rice imports in 2014. The NFA will be importing 800,000
tons of rice from Vietnam between May and August 2014 to maintain buffer stocks and control price hikes.

However, Vietnam rice exporters are reluctant to fulfill the tender as Vietnam rice prices rose after the tender
was announced. USDA estimates the Philippines to import around 2 million tons rice 2014, including unofficial


imports, while the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) estimates it to import around 1.2 million
tons.

Tags: Philippines rice imports, philippines rice self-sufficiency, Rice smuggling
Fermented Rice Prevents Wrinkles?
May 20, 2014
New beauty products are constantly touting the latest cutting-edge technology to improve womens looks. A
recent trend has seen the use of vegetable stem cells infiltrating a variety of anti-aging products, but the new
frontier for beauty treatments includes a whole slew of agricultural products: fermented rice, soybeans, peas,
and corn, for example.In this way, rice may become the ingredient of the future for anti-wrinkle creams. The
rice is fermented through a biotech process involving the presence of lactic ferments. This can generate more
biologically active substances in anti-wrinkle treatments while maintaining environmentally-friendly
characteristics. The new products can be fermented in incubators.This process was described by Stefano
Manfredini, professor of Pharmaceutical and Toxicological Chemistry at Ferrara University, during a recent
conference about science and technology in Bologna, Italy.

Tags: rice beauty products, beauty, Health, fermented rice

Thailand Second Rice Crop Affected by Severe Drought
May 20, 2014
Thailand's 2013-14 second rice crop (January - July), which has almost reached harvesting stage, is severely
affected by the ongoing drought conditions in the country, according to local media.While officials of Royal
Rain Department (RRD)have conducted artificial rain making operation in the rice producing provinces of
Nakhon Ratchasima, Buriram, Surin, Srisaket, Roi Et, Mahasarakham and Khon Kaen in the Northeastern
region of Thailand, not much impact could be seen in water availability, say farmers.

RRD officials said a total of 130 cloud seeding flights have been operated since last month and noted that the
operation would continue till the end of May 2014.Farmers say water released from local reservoirs by
provincial authorities was also insufficient and the rice plants have been withering in extreme heat.USDA Post
estimates that production for the 2013-14 second crop may decline about 6% to 5.7 million tons from 6 million
tons the previous year. However, the total years crop is estimated up about 1.5% from last year thanks to the
4% y/y increase in production in the main crop, harvested last autumn. The main crop production accounts for
about 70% of production and rose to about 14.8 million tons in 2013-14, up from about 14.17 million tons in
2013-13. The outlook will now be on the 2014-15 main crop to be planted later this summer.


Tags: Thailand rice production, Climate change, Thailand rice droughts, Drought
Mexico May Import Brazil Paddy Rice
May 20, 2014
Mexico's Secretary of Agriculture, livestock, Rural, Development, Fishing and Food (SAGARPA) has approved
Mexico's importation of Brazil rice paddy in 2014. So far there have not been any Mexican imports of Brazil
paddy.

Currently, only the U.S. exports paddy rice to Mexico, where the paddy is milled for the domestic Mexican
market. U.S. trade sources are reportedly disappointed with SAGARPA's decision as it is likely impact U.S.
paddy rice exports to Mexico. According to data from Brazil's Bureau of Foreign Trade, Venezuela and
Nicaragua are top export destinations for Brazil's paddy rice during the last three years. U.S. trade sources say
Brazil's entry in Venezuela and Nicaragua significantly reduced the U.S. share in those markets. In Nicaragua,
the U.S. share had dropped from 60-97% in 2010 to around 8% in 2013, while Brazil's share increased to about
90%.

Already, the U.S. share in Mexico's total rice import market has declined to 89% in 2013 from about 100% in
2010, according to the USA Rice Federation. U.S. paddy rice exports to Mexico declined by about 29% in the
first quarter of 2014, compared to same period in 2013. The U.S. milled rice exports also declined by about
12% year-over-year.

U.S. trade sources and the USDA Post say Vietnamese and Uruguayan rice have been replacing the U.S. rice in
Mexico for the last couple of years due to cheaper prices.

However, the U.S trade sources say exporting rice from Brazil to Mexico is associated with some operational
difficulties, given the distance between the two countries and weak infrastructure in Brazil. They say most of
the ports are in the southern part of Brazil and all the rice that has to be shipped has to be brought to the ports
via roadways, which are also not quite developed. Some of the price discrepancy is also likely to be temporary
as ocean freight prices are currently depressed below historic norms.

The U.S. rice traders are keen on retaining their share in Mexican market by focusing on quality by developing
newer varieties of rice, rebuilding brand loyalty as well as curbing unfair trade practices by other exporting
nations. The U.S. wants to ensure that Asian countries such as India, Vietnam and Thailand do not violate
World Trade Organization (WTO) rules pertaining to export subsidies in order to offer low prices to importing
countries.

According to data from Brazil's Bureau of Foreign Trade, Brazil exported about 918,000 tons rice in 2013,
down about 20% from about 1.15 million tons exported in 2012. USDA estimates Brazil to produce 8.3 million
tons of rice and export around 900,000 tons in MY 2013-14 (April 2013- March 2014).
Tags: Mexico rice imports, Brazil rice exports, U.S. Rice exports


Government of Thailand Proposes General Election on August 3. 2014; Thailand
Army Declares Martial Law to Maintain Law and Order
May 20, 2014
The government has proposed a new date for general election, August 3 2014, after the previous election date,
July 20 2014, fell through due to disruptions in the governments meeting with the Election Commission (EC)
last Wednesday.The caretaker prime minister plans meet the EC over the matter tomorrow while EC is waiting
to confirm the date with national security units.Meanwhile the Thailand Army Chief has declared Martial Law
in the country effective from today in order to rescue law and order in the country, after 28 deaths associated
with protests. This will mean the closure of some roads in the capital city Bangkok as well as army control of
TV and radio stations.

The caretaker government called the army's act as "half a coup dtat." Sources in the caretaker prime minister's
Office said the government would meet tomorrow over this development. The army denied the move as a coup,
citing a 1914 law allowing the military to interfere in times of crisis.The head of the Department of Foreign
Trade (DFT) said the nations rice export wont be disrupted and the DFT would continue with all rice trade
negotiations, including selling around 800,000 tons rice to Malaysia.Thailand exported around 2.2 million tons
rice during the first three months of 2014, up about 40% from about 1.57 million tons exported in 2013,
according to data from Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA). USDA estimates Thailand to export around 9
million tons rice in 2014, up about 34% from an estimated 6.72 million tons exported in 2013.

Tags: Thailand rice exports, thialand political uncertainty, thailand marshal law

Brazil Paddy Rice Index Up from Last Week
May 20, 2014

The Brazilian paddy
rice index maintained
by CEPEA reached at
about 36.33 real per 50
kilograms as of May 19,
2014, up about 0.6%
from about 36.11 real
per 50 kilograms
recorded on May 12,
2014.In terms of USD
per ton, the index
reached at about $329


per ton on May 19, 2014, up about 1% from about $326 per ton recorded on May 12, 2014.

Tags: brazil paddy prices, Brazil CEPEA rice price index

Vietnam Rice Sellers Lower Some of Their Quotes; Other Asia Rice Quotes
Unchanged Today
May 20, 2014
Vietnam rice sellers lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice by about $5 per ton to about $400 - $410 per ton
today. Other Asia rice sellers kept their quotes mostly unchanged.

5% Broken Rice
Thai 5% rice (of new crop) is quoted around $365 - $375 per ton, about $35 per ton discount to Viet 5% rice
shown around $400 - $410 per ton, down about $5 per ton from yesterday.
Indian 5% rice is quoted around $420 - $430 per ton, on par with Pak 5% rice quoted around $420 - $430 per
ton.

25% Broken Rice
Thai 25% rice of the old crop is quoted about $340 - $350 per ton, about a $20 per ton discount to Viet 25% rice
shown around $360 - $370 per ton.
Indian 25% rice is quoted around $380 - $390 per ton, about $5per discount to Pak 25% quoted around $385 -
$395 per ton.

Parboiled Rice
Thai parboiled rice of the old crop is quoted around $405 - $415 per ton.
Indian parboiled rice is quoted around $395 - $405 per ton, about $40 per ton discount to Pak parboiled rice
quoted around $435 - $445 per ton.

100% Broken Rice
Thai broken rice, A1 Super, of the old crop is quoted around $300 - $310 per ton, about a $35 per ton discount
to Viet broken rice shown around $335 - $345 per ton.
Indian broken sortexed rice is quoted around $300 - $310 per ton, about a $30 per ton discount to Pak broken
sortexed rice quoted around $330 - $340 per ton.

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Contact: Advertising Department
Mujahid Ali mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com +92 321 369 2874

21th May, 2014 Daily Exclusive ORYZA E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine

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