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Iran and Russia – Allies or Mutually Assured Acquaintances?.

By: Meir Javedanfar - meepas.com

29/04/2005

Introduction

Death to the Soviet Union was one of the standard chants heard over and over again during
revolutionary demonstrations in Iran. After the break up of the USSR many Iranians continued to view
Russia with suspicion due to historical and political differences between the two countries. Russia too
viewed Iran as a potential competitor and threat to its interest due to the Islamic government's
support to Muslim movements worldwide, some of whom are against Russia.

However during the last 15 years there has been a rapprochement between the two countries
especially in areas of defence and scientific co-operation. Furthermore politically both governments
have formed an alliance for the defence of their relationship. This was witnessed in Tel Aviv yesterday when President
Putin again justified and defended Russia's relationship with Iran with the argument that this relationship is mutually
beneficial and none threatening. President Khatami of Iran has done the same on numerous occasions.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that both countries do not have much in common and thus would have no reason
to support each other as they are currently. Iran is an Islamic Republic who claims to champion and defend the rights of
Muslims worldwide. Therefore why is it awarding billions of dollars of contracts to Russia who at times it accuses of
mercilessly murdering thousands of Chechen Muslims?

At the same time Russia has been competing with Iran over influence in Caucus region for the last 15 years. Islamic
movements are viewed as a threat against Russia's interests, especially Iran's as in the past the Iranian government
has supported anti-Russian movements. Therefore why is Russia who is trying to develop its economy through
increased investment from Western companies risking the ire of many Western governments over its defence and
scientific cooperation with Iran? Logic would suggest that better relations with the world's wealthier Western nations
would be far more rewarding than military and scientific relations with Iran.

meepas© will answer the aforementioned questions through the following two part analysis. The first part will examine
Russian motivations and aspirations for relations with Iran. The second part of the analysis to be released on Monday
May 2 nd addresses Iran's ambitions for its relations with Russia.

Background

Iran's relations with Russia from 1790 – 1990 can be described as suspicious, difficult and at times hostile. Many
Iranians still have not forgiven Russia for what they consider as stealing parts of the Caucus which used to belong to
Iran. After the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution Russia (which later became the USSR) continued to be a source of suspicion
and hostility for Iran. This was due to the fact that to many Iranians (majority of whom are Muslims) Communism with its
agnostic philosophy is an infidel ideology which Russia was using as a tool to spread its influence in the region.
Furthermore Russia's support of Iran's arch enemy Iraq heightened Iranian suspicion, plus the fact that Moscow actively
supported subversive Communist movements in Iran since the 1950s.

As a result both the regime of the Shah and later Ayatollah Khomeini took extensive measures to repel Russian plans to
intervene in Iran's affairs. The Shah did this by investing heavily in Iran's armed forces and by aligning himself with anti-
Soviet pro-western regimes in the Middle East such as Turkey and Israel. To show that Iran meant business in the
defence of its territory the Shah ordered Iran's Air Force to shoot down intercepting Soviet planes. In 1976 at over
50000 feet Iran's newly acquired F-14 aircraft shot down a Soviet BQM-34E drone flying illegally over Iranian territory
thus putting an end to all illegal Soviet aerial activity over Iran.

After the 1979 Islamic revolution Ayatollah Khomeini ensured Russian ambitions in Iran are kept in check by arresting
and even executing almost all of Iran's Communist ‘Toudeh' party. Furthermore the new religious regime in Tehran also
provided assistance to anti-Soviet Afghan Mujahedeen forces.

Change in Russian political landscape

The fall of Communism brought new realities. Gradually and one by one countries
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to break away. First Eastern European countries, then the Baltic states followed by
the Eurasian ‘Stan' states such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan
and others. Economic problems also weakened Russia's position as a super power as
it no longer could afford to run its massive arsenal of aircraft carriers, long range
bombers and military bases around the globe.

Despite its problems Russia did not give up on its ambition to remain an important
player in the international arena. As a result it started to look for new alliances.
However this time due to changing economic priorities and the change of political
landscape (away from Communism) Russia looked at new candidates. The criteria this
time attracted Russia towards countries that would provide Russia with immediate
economic benefits. Furthermore the post USSR Russian foreign policy moved Russia
towards the direction of countries whose relationship can provide Russia with new
spheres of influence in a world becoming more and more dominated by the US.

Islamic Republic of Iran was the perfect candidate on both accounts. Boycotted by the US and battered by eight years of
war against Iraq the Iranian economy was in the search of new technology providers especially in the spheres of
energy, transportation and military. Free of its Communist image Russia became a more acceptable ally to Iran.
Therefore after many years of chanting “Death to the USSR” on the streets of Tehran, one year after the break up of the
USSR in 1990 Iran concluded a deal for the purchase of state of the art Russian MiG-29 ‘Fulcrum' and Sukhoi 24 ‘Fencer'
fighter aircraft. This was followed by purchase of diesel submarines by Iran for its Navy in the Persian Gulf.

Iran was such an enthusiastic customer for Russian goods that it started buying Russian Tupelov-154 and Yakovlev-42
passenger aircraft at a time when Russian and Eastern European airlines were busy
ridding themselves of such antiquated low performing aircraft and replacing them with
new Boeing and Airbus planes. Furthermore Iran also became a new destination for
the export of Russian know how, both in the military and energy production fields. This
was a good opportunity for Russia to earn extra revenue from exports whilst providing
jobs for its legions of unemployed scientists.

Since coming to power President Putin has followed a policy of consolidating Russian
political and strategic interests. This has become a more urgent priority recently as
Russia is feeling the noose of American and EU expansionism tightening in its backyard.

Ukraine is one example where Russia lost an important ally (Viktor Yanukovich) to the US and European backed
candidate Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine's elections. Furthermore America's growing relationship with Azerbaijan who is
at dispute with Russia's ally Armenia is also a source of concern for President Putin. Meanwhile America's improving
relationship with Georgia is also viewed as a threat against Russian interest as Georgia is currently involved in a military
dispute with Russian backed South Ossetia. Furthermore the inclusion of many former Easter European allies in NATO
has further heightened Russia's sense of isolation.

Therefore unlike the Yeltsin era, President Putin has placed Russian political and strategic consolidation as number one
priority whilst the economy has taken a second position. This can be witnessed today through Putin's fight against
powerful Russian oligarchs many of whom were viewed as essential players for the progress of Russia's economy during
the Yeltsin era.

Based on this observation of President Putin's strategy it is forecasted by meepas© that Russia's relations with Iran is
here to stay and will in fact strengthen in the future.

This forecast is based on the hypothesis in a world which is becoming more and more concerned about Iran and its
nuclear ambitions, President Putin's close relationship with Tehran is a very sought after commodity especially by
Western governments. As Russian political and strategic consolidation is President Putin's
priority, he will use his relationship with Iran to extract political and economic concessions from
the West in order to consolidate Russia's position in the international arena. This is something
which his relations with the West can not provide as most Western countries are viewed as
competitors to Russia's strategic position. Thus explaining why Moscow is currently risking the
ire of Western governments over its relationship with Iran.

At the same time Iran's relationship with Russia also serves President Putin's priority number
two which is Russia's economy, especially the expansion of the employment intensive Russian
manufacturing sector. Therefore the argument for

relations with Iran are becoming more valid as Tehran continues to be one of the biggest markets for Russian heavy
engineering products. This was witnessed recently when Tehran signed a new agreement for the purchase of 25 TU-204
passenger aircraft, making it the biggest customer for the type. This is alongside other recently signed contracts for the
energy sector which add to Iran's attraction as a suitable Russian ally.

To conclude Iran's strategic fit in Russia's economic and foreign policy plans will serve to consolidate Tehran's position in
the eyes of the Kremlin for the foreseeable future. This is a fact which Western governments must take into
consideration when analysing Russian foreign policy and political strategy.

The next section of this analysis which will be released on Monday May 2 nd will address Iran's motivations and
aspirations for its relationship with Russia.

End of Analysis
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