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1ransporLed 1Lu 1onnage uemand 1onnage Supply M8 ConLalner lndex (yearly average)
236
The Container Vessel Market - Autumn 2013 Maersk Broker Asia Ltd
6
Tonnage Supply
At the end of 2012, the total container vessel fleet
had reached a capacity of 16,243,659 TEU and the
order book equalled 3,355,153 TEU -
corresponding to a fleet growth of 6.1% compared
to year end 2011.
The newbuilding contracting activity during 2012
was low (480,946 TEU) and the order book in
relative terms of the total fleet reduced to 20.7%
by end of December 2012, compared to 25.5% in
January 2011. From 2003 to mid-2008 contracting
activity within the container segment exceeded all
previous records with a total of 2,097,500 TEU
ordered in 2003; 1,751,900 TEU in 2004;
1,473,350 TEU in 2005; 1,818,550 TEU in 2006;
and finally a record 3,541,150 TEU ordered in 2007
followed by 1,050,250 TEU in 2008.
Apart from 2 x 1,000 TEU contracts, which were
reported during 2009, newbuilding activity reached
a complete standstill in 2009 and the first six
months of 2010. However, during the second half
of 2010 contracting sentiment changed. This was
driven by an improving charter market resulting in
full year ordering of about 646,000 TEU - a trend
which continued at an increasing pace into the first
half of 2011 with full year 2011 confirmed
contracts of nearly 1,740,000 TEU.
The delivery profile of the current order book is
between two and three years. Regardless - and as
a result - of negotiated postponements of
deliveries, especially with regards to the large
vessels during the initial part of the financial crisis
from late 2008 until the first half of 2010, the order
book was relatively full when the new contracting
cycle began in the second half of 2010.
The significant addition to the order book of more
than 2 mill. TEU during late 2010 and 2011 led to a
high number of deliveries in 2012, and will do so
for the full year 2013 and most of 2014.
On a more positive note, it should be emphasized
that the majority of the large vessels have been
ordered by end users and not for speculative
reasons, leading to a smooth absorption into the
trading fleet.
During the second half of 2013 the contracting of
container tonnage has increased once again (YTD
1.6 mill. TEU). Nearly 1.75 mill. TEU is expected
to be contracted throughout the full year (1.5
mill. TEU has been estimated for 2014). It is
expected that the ordering will be dominated by
the liner companies, who are seeking to upgrade
their fleets with new and efficient large Post-
Panamax tonnage, whilst also taking advantage
of the low prices offered by the shipyards.
Based on our knowledge of the current order
book and our estimate of future contracting (and
indeed demolition activity), we forecast the fleet
will grow at an annual average rate of 6.6% from
now until 2017.
Although, the current order book is biased
towards the largest container vessels, this is not
seen as a scenario that will limit a recovery of
the container vessel charter market.
Rather, the large vessels ordered are expected to
fill the requirements from the end users (liner
companies) in order to upscale their services and
the tonnage they are utilising in an effort to cater
for the expected future growing demand, while at
the same time, creating the basis for the lowest
possible cost of transportation.
The expectations for continued high bunker
prices and, hence, continued focus on super slow
steaming will - as stated earlier in this report -
also drive demand for additional container
vessels.
Fleet Development - including estimated future contractings
End Year Fleet
Forecast
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 f 2014 f 2015 f 2016 f 2017 f
0-199 TEU 9,417 11,076 10,909 10,912 10,841 9,841 8,341 8,011 7,636 7,261
200-399 TEU 47,791 46,657 46,327 45,135 44,998 43,833 37,812 34,654 33,083 31,583
400-649 TEU 146,529 137,427 132,765 130,349 123,571 111,677 99,677 93,677 90,677 87,677
650-899 TEU 297,860 299,383 303,528 306,835 305,349 300,174 294,338 289,838 287,588 285,338
900-1,299 TEU 765,663 741,368 734,799 739,943 760,213 748,842 730,279 725,454 725,118 731,118
1,300-1,999 TEU 1,169,414 1,180,443 1,216,990 1,233,439 1,193,933 1,169,798 1,154,621 1,151,037 1,165,947 1,198,197
2,000-2,999 TEU 1,850,082 1,803,538 1,808,505 1,808,523 1,719,815 1,727,009 1,713,615 1,749,027 1,767,486 1,799,361
3,000-3,949 TEU 1,138,724 1,093,146 1,100,964 1,110,638 1,016,083 969,284 946,826 954,726 969,376 995,626
3,950-5,199 TEU 2,464,411 2,763,628 3,102,390 3,195,404 3,380,398 3,545,221 3,559,143 3,544,661 3,573,239 3,633,989
5,200-6,999 TEU 2,129,597 2,301,930 2,470,058 2,597,862 2,658,827 2,751,589 2,832,882 2,855,596 2,894,153 2,969,153
7,000-8,999 TEU 1,277,916 1,445,906 1,688,809 1,953,682 2,184,671 2,516,998 2,671,217 2,892,563 3,041,406 3,266,406
9,000-10,999 TEU 733,855 792,291 840,829 940,719 1,052,059 1,185,107 1,694,636 2,028,354 2,304,125 2,754,125
11,000+ TEU 185,750 309,514 677,850 1,236,344 1,793,652 2,298,036 2,918,617 3,681,859 4,123,082 4,648,082
Total 12,217,009 12,926,307 14,134,723 15,309,785 16,244,410 17,377,409 18,662,005 20,009,457 20,982,916 22,407,916
237
The Container Vessel Market - Autumn 2013 Maersk Broker Asia Ltd
7
Tonnage Supply - Demolition
In line with the gradual decline in time charter
rates, demolition activity picked up during 2006-
2009 from nil in 2005 to 33,807 TEU in 2006;
23,247 TEU in 2007; 89,145 TEU in 2008 and a
needed 391,835 TEU in 2009.
For full year 2010, demolition activity was
150,397 TEU, and for the full year 2011 and 2012
it reached 71,617 TEU and 329,966 TEU
respectively. Demolition activity is expected to
reach minimum 400,000 TEU in 2013; 334,962
TEU has been scrapped during the first nine
months of 2013 indicating a somewhat higher full
year figure.
In 2014, demolition activity is expected to stay at
a high level as 300,000 TEU has been forecasted
to be scrapped. We calculate an immediate
scrapping potential of about 206,446 TEU for
vessels that are in excess of 25 years of age.
Further scrapping potential of 388,459 TEU occurs
for vessels now aged 21-25 years.
In 2009, the depressed time charter market led
to a significant share of the fleet being idle. Idle
or laid-up vessels reached more than 600
vessels - corresponding to 12% of the fleet -
during the autumn of 2009.
However, in line with an improving charter
market in 2010 - especially for tonnage above
4,000 TEU - the idle fleet reduced to a level
around 1.5% (77 vessels in May 2011).
Concurrent with the renewed poor charter
market, idle capacity increased and reached
approximately 245 vessels in January 2012, or
5.0% of the fleet.
Idle capacity has since been reduced to 185
container vessels, equal to 3.9% of the fleet
(September 2013) and is expected to increase
slightly during the fourth quarter of the year.
Positively, we expect idle capacity at the start of
2014 to be below the level seen at the beginning
of this year.
Monthly Contracting
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2010 2011 2012 2013
Orderbook vs. Fleet
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Fleet Order book Orderbook in % of fleet (right axis)
Fleet Growth - including estimated future contractings
Growth Rate
Forecast 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 f 2014 f 2015 f 2016 f 2017 f
Average
Growth
2013-2017
0-199 TEU 17.6% -1.5% 0.0% -0.7% -9.2% -15.2% -4.0% -4.7% -4.9% -7.3%
200-399 TEU -2.4% -0.7% -2.6% -0.3% -2.6% -13.7% -8.3% -4.5% -4.5% -7.9%
400-649 TEU -6.2% -3.4% -1.8% -5.2% -9.6% -10.7% -6.0% -3.2% -3.3% -5.9%
650-899 TEU 0.5% 1.4% 1.1% -0.5% -1.7% -1.9% -1.5% -0.8% -0.8% -1.3%
900-1,299 TEU -3.2% -0.9% 0.7% 2.7% -1.5% -2.5% -0.7% 0.0% 0.8% -0.6%
1,300-1,999 TEU 0.9% 3.1% 1.4% -3.2% -2.0% -1.3% -0.3% 1.3% 2.8% 0.6%
2,000-2,999 TEU -2.5% 0.3% 0.0% -4.9% 0.4% -0.8% 2.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.0%
3,000-3,949 TEU -4.0% 0.7% 0.9% -8.5% -4.6% -2.3% 0.8% 1.5% 2.7% 0.7%
3,950-5,199 TEU 12.1% 12.3% 3.0% 5.8% 4.9% 0.4% -0.4% 0.8% 1.7% 0.6%
5,200-6,999 TEU 8.1% 7.3% 5.2% 2.3% 3.5% 3.0% 0.8% 1.4% 2.6% 1.9%
7,000-8,999 TEU 13.1% 16.8% 15.7% 11.8% 15.2% 6.1% 8.3% 5.1% 7.4% 6.7%
9,000-10,999 TEU 8.0% 6.1% 11.9% 11.8% 12.6% 43.0% 19.7% 13.6% 19.5% 23.5%
11,000+ TEU 66.6% 119.0% 82.4% 45.1% 28.1% 27.0% 26.2% 12.0% 12.7% 19.3%
Total 5.8% 9.3% 8.3% 6.1% 7.0% 7.4% 7.2% 4.9% 6.8% 6.6%
238
The Container Vessel Market - Autumn 2013 Maersk Broker Asia Ltd
8
Developments in Asset Prices - Second-hand & Newbuildings
Historically, prices of second-hand container
vessels have shown a close correlation with the
developments in the time charter market.
Newbuilding prices have, to some extent,
developed in line with the container vessel
charter rates, but as shipyards have the ability to
cater for different tonnage segments, the
correlation is lower than for second-hand vessels.
Going forward we expect prices for second-hand
tonnage and, indeed, eventually newbuilding
prices to show improvement.
Maersk Broker believe that because second-hand
vessels are currently inexpensive - that is in a
historical context - prices will be very sensitive to
changes in the charter market going forward.
In the last six months, prices for, for example,
older 1,700 TEU and 2,500 TEU tonnage have
shown some improvements in line with a slightly
better charter market for this type of tonnage.
During the last few years, container vessel
newbuilding prices have experienced reductions as
demand from the main shipping markets has
diminished. This is due to the poor earnings in the
container vessel market, the dry cargo market and,
indeed, the tanker markets. At the moment the
declining price trend has stopped and yards are
trying to increase prices (to some degree they have
succeeded in relation to, for example, product
tankers). For now, it is still envisaged that the
shipyard industry will only gain increased pricing
strength once one or more of the main shipping
markets improve at the same time.
Second-hand Price Index vs. TC Rate Index
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Utilisation Rate Index, History Utilisation Rate Index, Basis Scenario September 2013
Maersk Broker Container Index Container Vessel Second-hand Index (5yr)
Newbuilding Price Index vs. TC Rate Index
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Utilisation Rate Index, History Utilisation Rate Index, Basis Scenario September 2013
Maersk Broker Container Index Container Vessel Newbuilding Index
239
The Container Vessel Market - Autumn 2013 Maersk Broker Asia Ltd
9
Demand vs. Supply - TC-rates Forecast
The Maersk Broker demand and supply analysis
forms the basis of an evaluation of the future
development in fleet utilisation. The below graph
outlines the historical utilisation index and the
estimated future utilisation index for the Maersk
Broker Basis Scenario.
Historically, the correlation between the Maersk
Broker model-based utilisation index and the
development in the Maersk Broker Container
Index has been very strong. The utilisation index
showed an increasing trend during 2003, 2004
and into 2005 backed by higher than expected
growth in cargo volumes, the distance each
container was carried (TEU miles) and increasing
port congestion.
In 2005, Maersk Broker forecasted that declining
utilisation - due to an extremely large order book
- would continue until sometime in 2010 when the
trend was expected to turn around. Actual
developments were, however, especially in late
2008 and in 2009 much more severe than
originally anticipated.
Generally, we anticipate the rest of 2013 and
2014 will be dominated by expectations for future
market improvements. The demand-supply
balance is sensitive, but current fundamental
economic developments, particularly in the USA
and Europe give us reason to believe that better
times are ahead. Nevertheless, political issues
may eventually impact such fundamentals for
forward improvements negatively.
From a historical point of view, 2014 and
certainly 2015 have the potential to become a
period in which volatility in charter rates will be
the keyword. It should, however, be noted that a
rebound cannot take place until the idle capacity
and the high number of deliveries of vessels
during 2013 have been absorbed.
The continued focus on super slow steaming is
still expected to support the tonnage segments
for the largest vessels, thus securing a more
balanced outlook.
As the end users have faced a few years with
significant financial challenges, their main effort
continues to be to attain economies of scale.
Therefore, we expect a continued high focus on
utilising the largest possible and most economical
tonnage - i.e. Post-Panamax vessels. Moreover,
it is expected that end users will continue to
utilise a high ratio of chartered container
tonnage.
The financial flexibility offered by the use of
chartered tonnage and, hence, low capital
requirement for the end users will also benefit
tonnage providers.
It is worth noting that the traditional German
tonnage providers (KGs) continue to have
extremely limited access to equity and financing.
Accordingly, the market share of German
controlled tonnage is expected to decline going
forward.
Utilisation Rate Forecast
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Utilisation Rate Index, History Utilisation Rate Index, Basis Scenario September 2013 Maersk Broker Container Index
240
The Container Vessel Market - Autumn 2013 Maersk Broker Asia Ltd
10
Conclusion
After experiencing a record-breaking 2004 and
first half of 2005, the container market peaked in
mid-2005 initiating a forecasted decline in time
charter rates.
The global economy had solid years in 2004,
2005 and 2006 with strong annual GDP growth
rates. In 2007, the USA entered an economic
slow-down, which was initially driven by the
housing-market and was followed by a collapse
in the financial markets during the autumn of
2008, thus culminating in the global economic
crisis in 2009.
The global economic crisis reached its initial
climax in the first half of 2009 resulting in a full
year global economic contraction of 1.8% in the
same year. We are now experiencing a very slow
recovery, which is expected to continue
throughout 2013. The global economy is
expected to return to more normal growth rates
in line with the historical average of 3%. The
slow rebound in the USA together with the weak
- but now positive - developments in the Euro-
zone are expected to be offset by a continued
and relatively strong growth in the emerging
markets, where China is still a main driver of
growth.
Furthermore, the demand from emerging
consumer markets is to some extent expected to
reverse the historic trade balances and, hence,
decrease trade imbalances on major trade
routes.
Maersk Broker consider the main risks to the
global economic forecast to be a prolonged
duration of an economic revival in the USA and
the Euro-zone, and a potential spill-over to
emerging markets.
Maersk Broker expect cargo volumes to show
reasonable growth rates during the forthcoming
years and forecast transported TEU to grow at an
annual average of 7.8% from 2013 to 2017.
Overall, Maersk Broker estimate total tonnage
demand to grow at an annual average of 8.6%
from this year until 2017.
The current order book is sizeable, albeit
continuously declining with ordered tonnage
equivalent to 21.0% of the current fleet
(September 2013).
A large part of the ordered tonnage and thus the
new capacity is made up by very large Post-
Panamax vessels, which will eventually change
the composition of the container fleet. Whilst
demand growth from the USA and the Euro-zone
is expected to remain low this year and is likely
to improve slowly in 2014, the continued and
increasing focus on super slow steaming is
expected to support a balanced recovery.
The prolonged increase in the importance of
emerging markets with high container import
growth rates will also play a positive role for the
container vessel industry in the years to come.
Maersk Broker forecast the fleet to grow at 7.0%
in 2013; 7.4% in 2014; 7.2% in 2015; 4.9% in
2016 and 6.8% in 2017. The average fleet
growth rate for the period will be 6.6%.
Maersk Broker expect average demand growth
(tonnage demand) of 8.6% against a fleet
growth of 6.6% will rebalance the industry in
favour of demand until 2017. The Maersk Broker
Utilisation Index is estimated on the basis of the
future demand and supply aspects. As this index
has historically shown a strong correlation with
time charter rates, the estimated development in
the utilisation index indicates the future
development in time charter rates.
It is expected that the Maersk Broker Utilisation
Index will remain at a low level until sometime in
2014 - mainly as a result of the expected high
growth in container vessel supply throughout
this year, as well as the need to absorb current
idle tonnage.
After a few years with very low charter rates for
container vessels, it is estimated that the market
has bottomed out. During the remainder of 2013
and the first quarter of next year, we expect
time charter rates to remain suppressed, but
with some upward volatility as we enter 2014. In
the course of 2014, we estimate demand and
supply will come closer to equilibrium.
As with any other markets the container vessel
charter market is to some degree driven by
expectations and, thus, positive signs for the
future could translate into earlier charter rate
improvements.
During 2013 the charter market for some
tonnage segments has indeed improved as
demand for 1,700 and to some extent 2,500 TEU
container vessels have started to come closer to
matching supply. As a result, asset prices for
such type of tonnage have also shown some
improvements.
In conclusion, we expect - as we have for some
time - a balanced, but gradually improving
charter market for 2014 with further potential
upward momentum in charter rates regarding
container tonnage. We expect this scenario will
commence sometime in the second half of 2014.
Consequently, 2015 will be the year where time
charter rates finally rebound significantly and
break through the levels for historical averages
once again.
241
The Container Vessel Market - Autumn 2013 Maersk Broker Asia Ltd
11
Container TC-rates Forecast
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
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35,000
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2,000-2,999 TEU 3,000-3,949 TEU 3,950-5,199 TEU
2,000-2,999 TEU, fc 3,000-3,949 TEU, fc 3,950-5,199 TEU, fc
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1992 4,773 6,925 8,996 10,953 15,658 22,531 23,500
1993 4,769 6,967 9,190 10,836 14,736 20,282 26,220
1994 5,000 6,996 8,661 10,424 15,057 20,321 26,521
1995 5,552 7,625 9,286 11,320 15,924 21,076 27,606 33,420
1996 5,490 7,224 8,846 10,821 14,907 20,516 26,689
1997 4,559 6,062 7,437 9,160 12,524 17,411 22,006
1998 4,079 5,254 6,338 7,469 9,410 13,436 20,340 24,669 27,844
1999 3,649 4,611 5,551 6,761 8,024 11,874 14,870 24,617 26,855
2000 3,500 4,896 6,626 8,496 12,270 17,739 22,975 26,668 29,282
2001 3,524 4,909 6,439 7,496 9,585 13,891 19,437 24,893 31,053
2002 3,401 4,526 5,703 6,067 7,138 9,168 11,767 19,431
2003 3,979 5,301 6,975 8,383 11,758 16,574 20,556 22,906 26,180 31,380
2004 5,941 7,836 10,065 12,955 19,172 22,697 24,943 29,835 29,423 36,529
2005 6,978 9,757 12,686 16,039 22,458 27,292 28,288 29,921 33,000 31,442
2006 5,240 7,035 9,814 11,621 16,007 20,505 22,760 25,979 34,289 45,000
2007 5,519 7,284 9,900 12,127 15,421 20,688 25,464 27,862 35,818 51,884
2008 6,077 7,542 9,044 11,072 15,060 19,582 25,270 28,705 36,821 57,237
2009 3,312 3,649 3,758 4,254 4,707 5,453 5,491 6,699 10,915 10,929
2010 3,663 4,185 4,598 5,833 6,605 8,254 11,865 14,791 21,577 33,522
2011 4,545 4,698 6,139 8,379 10,056 12,862 14,718 19,445 27,339 39,202
2012 3,900 4,173 4,749 5,930 6,656 6,907 8,251 10,212 21,088 33,011
2013TYD 4,067 4,641 5,291 6,690 7,318 7,180 7,718 9,149 20,433 32,114
Historical TC-rates - annual averages (USD/Day)
242
APPENDIX VI
REPORT OF CLARKSON RESEARCH SERVICES
The information presented in the following report, including all data (actual, estimates and forecasts)
relating to, among others, demand, supply, utilisation and time charter rates, has been provided by
Clarkson Research Services (Clarkson). None of the Issuer, the Arrangers and the Dealers make
any representation as to the accuracy of this information. The data provided by Clarkson is based on
economic and other assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and the information has not been
independently verified by the Issuer, the Arrangers or the Dealers, nor any of its or their respective
advisors. Certain industry data contained in this section is estimated in the absence of official company
confirmation or reliable country source information, and prospective investors should not place undue
reliance on such data.
This report includes forecasts and other forward-looking estimates. These forward-looking statements
are necessarily based on various assumptions and estimates that are inherently subject to various
risks and uncertainties relating to possible invalidity of the underlying assumptions and estimates and
possible changes or development of social, economic, business, industry, market, legal, government, and
regulatory circumstances and conditions and actions taken or omitted to be taken by others. Assumptions
relating to the foregoing involve judgments with respect to, among other things, future economic and
competitive market conditions and future government and business decisions, all of which are difficult
or impossible to predict accurately. Actual results and future events could differ materially from such
forecasts and projections. Prospective investors should not place undue reliance on such statements in
the report, or on the ability of Clarkson or any other third party to accurately predict future industry trends
or performance.
243
1
THE INTERNATIONAL CONTAINERSHIP INDUSTRY
The information and data contained in this report relating to the international container shipping
industry has been provided by Clarkson Research Services Limited, or CRSL, and is taken from
CRSLs database and other sources. We do not have any knowledge that the information provided by
CRSL is inaccurate in any material respect. CRSL has advised that: (i) some information in CRSLs
database is derived from estimates or subjective judgments; (ii) the information in the databases of
other maritime data collection agencies may differ from the information in CRSLs database; (iii)
whilst CRSL has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the statistical and graphical information
and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limited audit and validation
procedures and may accordingly contain errors. In this report,$ refers to United States dollars.
Unless otherwise indicated, the following information relating to the international containership
industry reflects information and data available as of November 1, 2013.
Overview of the Container Shipping Market
Container shipping is responsible for the movement of a wide range of goods between different parts of
the world in a unitized form and, since its beginnings in the 1950s, containerization has become an
integral part of the global economy. The use of containers in global trade has resulted in considerable
production and efficiency gains and has become important to the process of globalization. A wide
range of cargoes are transported by container but most notably container transportation is responsible
for the shipment of a diverse selection of manufactured and consumer goods. These cargoes are
transported by container to end users in all regions of the world, and in particular from key producing
and manufacturing regions to end users in the worlds largest consumer economies. Participants in the
container shipping industry include liner shipping companies, who operate container shipping
services and in many instances own containerships, containership owners, often known as charter
owners, who own containerships and charter them out to liner companies, and shippers who require
the seaborne movement of containerized goods.
Containership Demand
The expansion of global container trade is heavily influenced by global economic growth, increases in
economic consumption at a global and regional level, and the process of globalization. In 2008, global
container trade peaked at 135 million TEU, having increased at a compound annual growth rate of
9.5% in the period 1998 to 2008. During this period rapid growth in exports from China drove a
significant part of the increase in container trade, along with growth in container trade volumes in and
out of Russia and the Baltic, and to and from other emerging markets such as Brazil. Intra-Asian
container trade volumes also grew rapidly during this period. In 2009, global container trade was an
estimated 122 million TEU following a significant contraction of 9.2% due to the worldwide recession.
Global trade subsequently rebounded by 13.1% to 138 million TEU in 2010. Global trade grew by a
further 7.2% in 2011 to stand at 148 million TEU, and reached 153 million TEU in 2012, representing
growth of 3.2%. The rate of global trade growth is currently expected to stand at 4.8% in full year 2013
and 6.1% in 2014, although these projections are subject to a wide range of risks from the global
economy.
244
2
67
69
76
84
95
105
117
129
135
122
138
148
153
160
170
-12%
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
24%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
(
f
)
2
0
1
4
(
f
)
%
growth
million
TEU
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013
World Container Trade and Annual Growth
Container trade
Annual % increase
Note: The full year 2013 and 2014 forecasts are as of the start of November 2013 and subject
to change. Complete trade and economic data for 2013 is not yet available, estimates are
subjective and there is no guarantee that current trends will continue.
Trade Routes and Growth Trends
Global container trade is spread over a range of long-haul, regional, and intra-regional routes, which
can be separated into four categories. The individual mainlane container trades on the major east-
west routes are the worlds largest in volume terms. The Transpacific trade route is the worlds largest
container trade with 14% of the total container volume in 2012, followed by the Far East-Europe trade
route and the Transatlantic trade route. Due to the higher cargo volumes on these routes, they are
generally served by very large Post-Panamax ships with capacity of 8000 TEU and above, and by other
large Post-Panamax and Panamax containerships generally with capacity from 8000 TEU down to
approximately 4500 TEU. There are also some 3000-4500 TEU containerships which continue to serve
these trades. Non-Mainlane east-west routes include trade lanes between the Indian Sub-Continent or
the Middle East and North America, Europe or the Far East, and are generally served by a range of ship
sizes, from smaller Post-Panamax containerships below 8000 TEU to vessels of Panamax size and
below. North-south trade routes form the second layer of the global liner network, connecting the
northern hemisphere with South America, Africa and Oceania, and are generally served by vessels of
between 1000-5000 TEU, but also increasingly by vessels of 5000 TEU and above. Intra-regional trade
routes include both intra-Asian and intra-European trades, where containerships below 3000 TEU in
size generally provide the majority of transportation. Intra-Asian container trades collectively constitute
the largest portion of global containership volumes. Ports involved in these trades, and some north-
south trades, often impose infrastructural and other limitations on the vessel types that can be utilized,
such as draft restrictions or the lack of availability of handling equipment. As mentioned above, 2012
experienced increased demand for global container trade, although the rate of volume growth slowed
from 2011. Recent data suggests that European demand has begun to pick up, having proved weak
through the first five months of 2013, and overall, the rate of global demand growth is projected to
increase in full year 2013 from 2012. At present, gradually increasing container trade volumes are then
expected across trade lanes in 2014, although this projection is subject to a wide range of risks from the
global economy.
245
3
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
(
f
)
2
0
1
4
(
f
)
% growth
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013
Container Trade Lane Annual Volume Growth
Transpacific E/B Far East-Europe W/B
North-South Intra-Regional
Note: The full year 2013 and 2014 forecasts are as of the start of November 2013 and subject to change.
Complete trade and economic data for 2013 is not yet available, estimates are subjective and there is no
guarantee that current trends will continue.
Containership Supply
The most significant portion of the global container capable fleet is comprised of fully cellular
containerships which as of November 1, 2013, totalled 5,135 vessels with an aggregate capacity of 17.1
million TEU. The remainder of the fleet is made up of a range of non-fully cellular vessel types,
including multi-purpose vessels, or MPPs, capable of carrying container and breakbulk cargo, roll-on
roll-off cargo vessels, or Ro-Ros, and general cargo vessels, which often have container carrying
capacity. Unless noted otherwise, the remainder of the discussion in this section focuses on fully
cellular containerships. As of November 1, 2013, liner companies accounted for the ownership of
52.4% of containership fleet capacity, and charter owners, who own containerships and charter them
out for operation by liner companies, accounted for 47.6% of total fleet capacity.
Overall fully cellular containership standing slot capacity expanded at a compound annual growth rate
of 10.5% in the period between the start of 1985 and end of 2009. Fully cellular fleet capacity is
estimated to have expanded by 9.6% in 2010 and by 7.9% in 2011. Fully cellular fleet capacity grew by
5.9% in 2012, and is currently expected to grow by 7.0% in full year 2013 and 5.6% in 2014.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
(
f
)
2
0
1
4
(
f
)
% growth
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013
Containership Fleet Capacity Growth
Note: The full year 2013 and 2014 forecasts are as of the start of November 2013. These
figures are subject to change as a result of actual delivery delay and cancellation, re-
negotiation of contracts and levels of scrapping. Due to technical and contractual issues, there
is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the delivery of the orderbook.
246
4
As of November 1, 2013, the containership orderbook comprised 479 vessels and 3.7 million TEU,
representing 21.6% of the existing fleet in terms of capacity. The size of orderbook, however, differed
widely across containership size segments, as demonstrated below, with the most significant portion of
the orderbook as a proportion of existing fleet capacity being in the larger vessel sizes.
Number '000 TEU % of fleet '000 TEU % of flt '000 TEU % of flt '000 TEU % of flt '000 TEU % of flt
Post-Panamax 8000 & above 252 2,970.6 53.8% 187.0 3.4% 1,062.5 19.2% 1,327.4 24.0% 393.7 7.1% 14%
Post-Panamax 3000-7999 98 488.7 13.4% 118.9 3.3% 252.4 6.9% 91.9 2.5% 25.6 0.7% 33%
Panamax 3000 & above 11 38.3 1.0% 18.0 0.5% 14.1 0.4% 3.1 0.1% 3.1 0.1% 32%
Sub-Panamax 2000-2999 44 103.1 6.1% 19.3 1.1% 25.6 1.5% 48.4 2.9% 9.7 0.6% 35%
Handy 1000-1999 65 92.9 5.4% 8.5 0.5% 45.6 2.6% 32.1 1.8% 6.7 0.4% 30%
Feeder/Max 100-999 9 7.0 1.0% 4.6 0.7% 1.8 0.2% 0.6 0.1% 0.0 0.0% 50%
Total 100+ TEU 479 3,700.5 21.6% 356.3 2.1% 1,402.0 8.2% 1,503.5 8.8% 438.7 2.6% 21%
ContainershipOrderbook by Year of Delivery
% Non-Delivery
(2012)
ContainershipType Size (TEU)
Total Orderbook 2013 2014 2015 2016
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013.
Note: Orderbook data is correct as of November 1, 2013 and does not take into account potential delivery problems. Going
forward, the orderbook will be influenced by delays, cancellations and the re-negotiation of contracts. Due to these technical and
contractual issues, there is currently considerable uncertainty surrounding the orderbook. The orderbook includes some orders
originally scheduled for delivery prior to 2013.
Overall, since the start of 2000, the containership orderbook has represented an average of 37% of fully
cellular fleet capacity. Towards the end of 2007, the containership orderbook as a proportion of fully
cellular fleet capacity reached a high of 60.8%, decreasing to 50.6% at the start of 2009, 38.2% at the
start of 2010 and 27.2% at the start of 2011 before increasing marginally to 30.4% at the start of July
2011, and then decreasing to 28.5% at the start of 2012, 21.2% at the start of 2013 and 21.6% as at the
start of November 2013.
Orderbook
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
Orderbook as % of Fleet (RHS)
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013
Historical Containership Orderbook
million
TEU
Note: Orderbook data is correct as of November 1, 2013. The historical orderbook is subject to change as a
result of statistical reporting delays.
Although establishing accurate data is difficult, approximately 21% of scheduled deliveries in terms of
TEU capacity expected to enter the fleet in 2012 at the start of that year have been confirmed as non-
delivered during 2012. This figure was 50% for containerships below 1000 TEU in size, 32% for
containerships between 1000 TEU and 2999 TEU, 32% for Panamax containerships and 18% for Post-
Panamax containerships. This is partly due to statistical reporting delays but also because of delays in
construction and cancellations of orders. The right-hand column of the previous table illustrates the
difference between scheduled start year and actual containership deliveries in 2012. Delivering the
orderbook presents a number of challenges, with factors both technical and financial facing both
shipyards and owners contributing to delays in and cancellations of the containership scheduled
deliveries.
247
5
In the period from 1996 to 2008, an average of 313 containership orders was placed each year, with the
average annual level of capacity ordered totaling 1.2 million TEU. In 2007, a historical high level of
3.2 million TEU of containership capacity was ordered. In 2008 the volume of ordering slowed to 1.2
million TEU, while containership contracting activity in 2009 was negligible. Contracting activity
picked up in the second half of 2010, taking total contracting in 2010 to 0.6 million TEU. Contracting
levels remained high in the first half of 2011 and a total of 1.8 million TEU was contracted in the full
year. Contracting activity in 2012 once again slowed and a total of 0.4 million TEU was contracted in
the full year. In the first ten months of 2013, 203 containerships of a combined 1.7 million TEU were
contracted.
In the period from 1996 to 2008, an average of 30 containerships was scrapped each year. A substantial
volume of ageing containership capacity was sold for scrap in 2009, with the full year seeing 202
containerships with a combined capacity of 0.38 million TEU sold for scrap, significantly higher than
historical levels. In 2010, 86 containerships with a combined capacity of 0.13 million TEU were sold
for scrap and in 2011, 60 containerships with a combined capacity of 0.08 million TEU were sold for
scrap. In 2012, 178 containerships with a combined capacity of 0.33 million TEU were sold for
demolition. In the first ten months of 2013, 152 containerships of a combined 0.34 million TEU have
been scrapped. As of November 1, 2013, the average age of a vessel in the containership fleet was 10.9
years. The majority of ageing containership capacity is at the smaller end of the fleet below 4000 TEU,
where some capacity may be more at risk of becoming outdated as larger ships prove more efficient at
serving increased trade volumes. Overall, 4.1% of containership fleet capacity is currently aged 20
years or more.
As a result of the slowdown in demand through 2009, the portion of the fleet not in operation (or
idle) grew from 0.42 million TEU at the end of 2008 to peak at an estimated 1.52 million TEU of
capacity in December 2009, representing approximately 572 vessels, according to AXS-Alphaliner,
equal to 11.8% of the global fleet by capacity, according to Clarkson Research. However, the
proportion of idle capacity declined through most of 2010 and the first half of 2011 as carriers
reintroduced capacity on reactivated or newly implemented services, and in some cases upgraded
capacity on existing services, to meet the apparent increase in trade volumes. However, owners once
again increased the number of idle containerships in the second half of 2011 and by mid-March
2012, 302 containerships of a combined 0.91 million TEU were in lay-up according to AXS-
Alphaliner, equal to 5.9% of the global fleet by capacity according to Clarkson Research. The total
idled capacity has subsequently declined, with just over 3% of the global fleet by capacity (0.52 million
TEU) in lay-up at the end of October 2013.
Following the downturn in container trade volumes in late 2008 and 2009, a significant number of
container shipping services began to be operated by liner companies at slower vessel speeds than in the
past, with additional ships added to services in order to maintain fixed regular port call schedules. This
management of supply not only reduced liner company bunker costs but also helped absorb
containership capacity, as slow steamed services offer the same amount of running capacity whilst
requiring additional standing vessel capacity. As of November 2013, slow steaming remains in place on
a range of container shipping services and appears to have been most prevalent on services on the
longer mainlane trades such as the Far East-Europe and the Transpacific, where there is the greater
possibility to add extra ships and adjust the service speed to an appropriate level, than on shorter-haul
trades. Along with the idling of capacity, slow steaming of services was another of a range of initiatives
to manage supply during the period of surplus capacity.
During this period, redeployment of supply across trade lanes has also been a key feature of the
containership sector. With deliveries of new capacity dominated by larger containerships and trade
volumes growing more rapidly on north-south and intra-regional trade lanes traditionally served by
medium-sized and smaller containerships, a significant degree of vessel redeployment, known as
cascading has been required. As new very large Post-Panamax vessels have been delivered into
service on the Far East-Europe trade lane, vessels have been redeployed from the Far East-Europe to
other trade lanes including the Transpacific, from where medium-sized capacity has in turn been
redeployed notably to north-south trade lanes, from where in turn some smaller vessels have been
redeployed to intra-regional trade lanes for example.
248
6
Containership Markets
Containership Timecharter Rates
Pricing of containership transportation services occurs against a background of a highly competitive
global containership charter market. Containership charter rates depend on the supply of, and demand
for, containership capacity, and can vary significantly from year to year. Containership economies of
scale mean that the daily timecharter rate per TEU for a larger containership is less than for a ship with
lower TEU capacity. The containership charter market experienced significant upward movement in
timecharter rates in the period between the start of 2002 and the middle of 2005. The market recovered
from the decreases in charter rates seen in 2001 to levels beyond previous market highs before
decreasing again mid-way through 2005, stabilizing in the first half of 2006, and then slipping further
during the second half of 2006. The first half of 2007 saw the containership charter market recover to
rate levels similar to those seen in late 2005 and early 2006. However, the onset of the global economic
downturn and the resulting slowdown in container trade growth created a relative oversupply of
capacity, leading to a rapid decrease in containership earnings in the latter half of 2008, which
continued in the first half of 2009, with earnings remaining depressed during the rest of the year. In
2010, containership charter rates registered an upward trend over the year as a whole and made further
gains in early 2011 before decreasing sharply in the second half of 2011 and remaining depressed
through 2012 and the first ten months of 2013. Based on an index covering a range of containership
sizes, timecharter daily rates improved 84% during 2010 only to decrease by around 29% during 2011
and remain relatively steady though 2012. The estimated one year timecharter rate for a 3500 TEU
containership at the end of December 2010 was $14,500 per day. At the end of December 2011, the
rate had declined to $6,500 per day and after fluctuating slightly through the following year, it still
stood at $6,500 per day at the end of 2012. By the end of October 2013, the benchmark timecharter rate
had increased marginally to $7,500 per day. This compares to a ten year historical average of $20,928
per day.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
$'000/day
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013
Containership 6-12 Month Timecharter Rates
1700 TEU geared
2750 TEU gearless
3500 TEU gearless
4400 TEU gearless
Note: Estimates based on market assessments for theoretical fully cellular ships by brokers. These estimates are
based on a given point in time and are no guide to or guarantee of future rates. Geared vessels have their own cranes
for the purpose of loading and unloading containers.
There are limitations and risks to future projections, depending on developments in the world economy
and global trade patterns, and the development of ordering, deliveries and scrapping in the future. With
the decrease in demand for container volume in 2009, supply far outweighed demand for the global
movement of containers, causing significant downwards pressure on the entire container shipping
sector. The impact of the differential between growth in demand and supply on the containership
charter market pushed rates sharply downwards. Demand growth outpaced capacity expansion in 2010
leading to upwards pressure on rates, while supply growth and demand growth were relatively matched
in 2011 on an annual basis. However in 2012, and in the first ten months of 2013, demand growth has
proved weaker than the growth in supply, and combined with the majority share of idle capacity
249
7
constituted by charter owner vessels, this has suppressed any significant upwards movement in charter
rates.
Vessel Values: The Newbuild & Secondhand Containership Market
Newbuild Prices: The development of containership newbuild prices reflects both the demand for
vessels as well as the cost of acquisition of new containerships by owners from shipyards, which is
influenced by the cost of materials and labor, availability of shipbuilding capacity, and the impact of
demand from other shipping sectors on shipyards. Economies of scale in containership building mean
that the cost per TEU involved in building larger containerships is less than for vessels with smaller
TEU capacity.
The newbuild price for a benchmark 6600 TEU containership increased from $60.0 million at the start
of 2003 to a peak of $108.0 million in the period June to September 2008. However, following the
onset of the global economic downturn, this figure fell to $66.0 million at the end of January 2010. By
the end of 2010 it had increased to $79.5 million. The figure subsequently softened slightly in 2011,
and continued to decrease, falling to $58.0 million at the end of 2012. By the end of October 2013 the
benchmark newbuilding price estimate had risen slightly to $65.0 million. The ten year historical
average price for a 6600 TEU containership newbuild is estimated at $83.1 million. The following
graph shows the historical development of containership newbuild prices.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
$ millon
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013
Containership Newbuilding Price Development
6600 TEU 5100 TEU
2750 TEU 1700 TEU
1000 TEU
Note: Prices are evaluated at the end of each calendar month. Newbuild prices assume European spec., standard
payment schedules and first class competitive yards quotations.
Secondhand Prices: Over the long-term, as the containership charter market has played an increasingly
important role in the container shipping industry as a whole, the market for the sale and purchase of
secondhand containerships has also expanded. Secondhand vessel prices are influenced by newbuild
prices and also by vessel charter rates or earnings, although there is sometimes a lag in the relationship.
Activity on the secondhand market for containerships has grown from the relatively low levels of the
past. A portion of this activity has been constituted by the sale of containerships by liner companies to
charter owners. These sales have commonly been accompanied by timecharter back arrangements
whereby the liner company sells the vessel, removing the asset from its balance sheet, then, as part of
the transaction, arranges a timecharter of the vessel from the party to which it has sold the ship. The
liquidity of the secondhand sales market is much greater for small and medium-sized containerships
than for large vessels. Only 299 of the 1,749 secondhand containership sales recorded between the start
of 2000 and the start of November 2013 have involved ships with 3000 TEU or more in capacity. Large
containerships are generally newer, and more likely to remain owned by their original owner either for
their own end use or on an initial relatively long-term charter.
250
8
Secondhand containership sales volumes show some volatility. In 2010, a total of 171 secondhand
vessels with a combined capacity of 373,667 TEU were sold, while a total of 94 vessels with a
combined 259,437 TEU were sold in 2011 and 152 vessels with a combined 253,988 TEU were sold in
2012. The following graph shows the development of secondhand prices for five-year old 3500 TEU,
1700 TEU and 1000 TEU containerships. Trends in secondhand prices for older containerships
typically move according to similar cycles. The price for a benchmark five-year old 1700 TEU
containership decreased from $37.5 million at the end of May 2008 to $14.0 million at the end of 2009.
There was an upward trend in secondhand containership prices in 2010 and the prices then remained
steady in the first eight months of 2011, with the price of a benchmark 1700 TEU containership
peaking at $24.0 million, before falling to $17.0 million by the end of 2011. The five-year old 1700
TEU price at the end of 2012 was estimated to be approximately $13.0 million and $14.25 million at
the end of October 2013, compared to a ten year historical average of $24.7 million.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
0
1
3
$ million
Source: Clarkson Research, November 2013
Containership Secondhand Price Development
Five-year old 3500 TEU
Five-year old 1700 TEU
Five-year old 1000 TEU
Note: Prices are evaluated at the end of each calendar month. There have been periods of uncertainty surrounding
secondhand prices and the values provided between October 2008 and December 2009 are subject to wider than
usual confidence margins.
251