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in India:
Prospects of Advanced Generation Technologies in a
Carbon-Constrained World
Coal and Electricity in India Conference
Sponsored By:
International Energy Agency, Ministry of Coal and Mines & Ministry of
Power of the Government of India
22-23 September 2003; New Delhi, India
Manoj K. Guha
Former Manager, Corporate Technology Development
American Electric Power
Columbus, Ohio, USA
Presentation Outline
Electrical generation in a carbon
constrained world
Role of coal in sustainable
development in a carbon
constrained world
The role of coal gasification in the
Hydrogen Economy
Indias Energy Strategy
Vision:
To meet the energy needs of all
segments of Indias population in the
most efficient and cost-effective
manner while ensuring long-term
sustainability
Provide Clean and Affordable
Energy to All
Promote the design and establishment of
decentralized energy service providers
Design a basket of differentiated services
available at differential prices to empower
poorer customers choice
Re-assign energy subsidy allocations
towards the provision of micro-credit
Ensure Security of Energy
Supply
Map all energy resources and develop a databank
of technology choices, efficiencies and costs to
facilitate evaluation of trade-offs between
alternative energy paths
Investments in energy systems and efficiency
improvements
Encourage commercially-driven goal-oriented
R&D efforts
Public R&D funds towards reducing energy
delivery costs to the poor
Prepare energy plans to meet unforeseen
emergency situations
Improve the Efficiency of the
Energy System
Open up energy markets to allow more
players in all market segments
Adequately empower independent
regulatory authorities
Adopt uniform pricing principles
De-link social function of subsidy
provision from energy pricing decisions
Institutionalize preparation of information
systems, communication and education
programs promoting efficiency
Reduce Adverse
Environmental Impacts of
Energy Use
Accelerate development and market
adoption of environmentally friendly
technologies
Strategically exploit opportunities arising
out of international agreements and the
WTO to meet energy goals
Establish and stringently enforce
appropriate environmental standards
Comparison of Per Capita
Energy Consumption
Energy and Electricity Demand
and the Indian Economy
Power Generation Capacity
Indias Energy Consumption
Pattern
Electricity Capacity Additions:
Past and Projected
Comparison of Capacity and
Energy Generation (Latest Data, 1997)
28.2 100 3,649.30 779.8 Total
74.0 (0.4) 1.6 NA 59.5 12.9
All Other Renewables
35.0 (0.1) 0.4 NA 14.3 2.9 Geothermal
~ ~ NA -4.0 19.3
Hydro Electric Pumped
Storage
14.3 (2.8) 9.8 NA 358.9 79.9 Conventional Hydro
29.5 (5.2) 18.5 10,320 673.7 99.7 Nuclear
153.4 Dual-fired
46.4 Petroleum 20.9 (5.2) 18.5 10,600 673.9
50.2 Natural Gas
38.8 (14.5) 51.2 9,960 1,873.00 315.1 Coal
USA
3.06 100 405.6 96.35 Total
~ ~ NA 0.2 < 0.25
All Non-Hydro
Renewables
2.7 (0.5) 16.9 NA 68.4 21.0 Hydro
0.3 (0.06) 1.8 11,800 7.4 2.0 Nuclear
6.8 (2.5) 81.3 15,500 329.6 73.1
Fossil (coal, gas,
petroleum)
India
% of Total World
Generation
% Total Within
the Country
Average Heat
Rate Btu/kWh
BkWH
Capacity
GW
Fuel and/or Generation
Source
Country
Generation
Energy Consumption by
Sector
Electricity, Transportation & CO
2
Electricity accounts for about 40% of end
use energy and 36% of CO
2
production in
the U.S.
Transportation accounts for about 37%
energy consumption and 33% of CO
2
in
the U.S.
(Carbon emissions in India from these
sources do not appear to be that much
different from U.S. on percentage basis)
(Except for passing comments, I will not cover
transportation sector in my presentation)
Cost of Additional Megawatt of
Capacity
Low-Carbon Energy
Technologies
DSM and efficiency improvements are
powerful tools, but focus is on
technologies for future power plants
Many low/no-carbon technologies
available
Renewables
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Renewables: An Important
Niche
Carbon-free technologies are promising
Wide variety of options
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Hydropower
Constrained by intermittency, reliability,
cost
U.S. Non-Hydro Renewable
Generation
EIA AEO 2001 (2000-2020); AEP Projection (2020- 2030)
300
50
0
1995 2000
2030
G
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
,
B
k
W
h
Year
150
100
250
200
2010 2020
Wind
Solar Photovoltaic
Solar Thermal
Wood / Biomass
Municipal Solid Waste
Geothermal
Annual
Growth Rates
2000 - 2030
2.6%
12.6%
2.4%
1.8%
1.8%
1.0%
Non-Hydro Renewables
% Total Generation
1995
2000
2010
2020
2030
1.4%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
1.8%
Maximum Potential of Non-Hydro
Renewable Generation
Extension of production credits to all Renewables past 2010
AEP Projection (2020- 2030)
300
50
0
2000
2030
G
e
n
e
r
a
t
i
o
n
,
B
k
W
h
Year
150
100
250
200
2010 2020
Wind
Solar Photovoltaic
Solar Thermal
Wood / Biomass
Municipal Solid Waste
Geothermal
Annual
Growth Rates
2000 - 2030
9.0%
19.6%
5.7%
5.1%
5.0%
4.2%
Non-Hydro Renewables
% Total Generation
2000
2010
2020
2030
1.6%
3.7%
5.5%
6.0%
Limits to Renewables
Even with accelerated expansion of
non-hydro Renewables, potential
market penetration remains small in
near- to mid-term in the U.S.
Prohibitively high capital costs
continue to constrain renewable
deployment in developing countries
Natural Gas: A Near-Term
Remedy
Dramatically increased natural gas use is
primary strategy for U.S. GHG reductions
Several technologies available
Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC)
Cogenerations/Combined Heat and Power
(CHP)
Distributed Generation (microturbines, etc.)
However, natural gas requires extensive
infrastructure and abundant fuel reserves
Nuclear Power: A Zero-Carbon
Option
Many disadvantages, but nuclear
offers a plentiful source of zero-
carbon electricity
Technological advances to help
address concerns
Safety
Capital costs
Economic competitiveness
Coal: The Foundation of
Electric Power
Coal fuels majority of power generation in U.S.
and many developing nations
High carbon content can be offset by low prices
and technological improvements
Near-term
Advanced Pulverized Coal-Fired (PCF) steam cycles
Fluidized Bed Combustion
Long-term
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)
Carbon Capture and Sequestration (based on IGCC)
Co-production of energy, heat, and fuels (EnergyPlexes)
Coal-Based Energy
Technologies I
Coal-Based Energy
Technologies II
Heat Rates Comparison
Coal-Based Technologies - Conventional and Advanced
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Existing
Capacity
PCF w/FGD Adv. PCF
w/FGD
PFBC GCC Adv. PFBC Adv. GCC AG w/Fuel
Cell
H
e
a
t
R
a
t
e
,
B
t
u
/
k
W
h
PCF w/FGD Pulverized Coal-fired with Flue Gas Desulfurization
PFBC Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion
GCC Gasification Combined Cycle
AG w/Fuel Cell Advanced Gasification with Fuel Cell
1
0
,
3
5
9
9
,
3
2
0
8
,
5
0
0
8
,
3
2
0
7
,
8
0
0
6
,
8
3
0
6
,
2
5
0
5
,
7
3
0
Generation Technology
40% CO
2
reduction
H
2
: The New Champion?
The ultimate energy carrier
Most abundant element on earth
Sources are uniformly distributed
Clean combustion
But where will the Hydrogen come
from?
Hydrogen Production Today
Steam methane reforming
Electrolysis
Partial oxidation of fossil fuels
Limits to Steam Reforming
Over 80% of global hydrogen is
produced via steam reforming of
methane
CH
4
+ 2H
2
O CO
2
+ 4H
2
Endothermic reaction, requiring high
energy inputs
More Limits to Steam Reforming
Competing uses for natural gas
could drive up prices
Heating
Power generation
Industrial processes
Chemical production
Natural gas is unevenly distributed
Limits to Electrolysis
2H
2
O 2H
2
+ 2O
2
Good for distributed applications
Opens door for Renewables and
Nuclear
Less efficient than alternatives
Less cost-effective than alternatives
Coal to Hydrogen
Coal can contribute to this goal as an
integral part of the emerging
hydrogen system, because it is:
Abundant
Affordable ($1.10/10
6
BTU)
Reliable
Domestic
Improveable
Rationale for Coal-based H
2
Coal can, and must, become a leading source of
hydrogen
Gasification
Releases the H
2
in coal, unlocks the H
2
in water
Coal + H
2
O + O
2
Syngas (H
2
, CO) + CO
2
+
($3.75/10
6
BTU) provided gasification technology can
be commercialized at or below $1,000/kW.
Syngas can be further processed to generate pure H
2
Key developing countries are coal-rich, with every
intent of using it
Steps to Success
For coal to play a role in the
hydrogen economy, we must:
Improve gasification systems
Hot gas clean-up (particulates, H
2
S)
High efficiency gas turbines
Develop carbon capture techniques
Create carbon storage options
Normalized Costs of Electricity for
Different Technologies*
*Levelized Costs at 65% capacity factor for all technologies, except NGCT, which is at 40%
Breakeven Capital Costs of
IGCC using Coal Fuel
L
e
v
e
l
i
z
e
d
C
o
s
t
o
f
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
i
t
y
(
$
M
W
H
)
Breakeven Capital Costs of
IGCC using Petroleum Coke
L
e
v
e
l
i
z
e
d
C
o
s
t
o
f
E
l
e
c
t
r
i
c
i
t
y
(
$
M
W
H
)
Integrated Energy Facility
(Trigeneration)
Preliminary Economics of a
Trigeneration Facility
Assumptions
100,000 barrels crude oil/day facility
75% of energy from crude oil goes to produce premium fuel (gasoline,
kerosene, aviation fuel)
Refining of high distillate fuel is 72% efficient
Remaining 25% of energy from crude oil goes to produce heavy distillate
residues and/or petroleum cokes. These could be utilized in an
entrained bed gasification process to generate electricity and steam
Premium Fuel, MGED 3.2
Chemical Feedstock, GED 200,000
Electric Power, MW 750
Max. Load Factor for Electricity 75%
Effective Energy Utilization 85%
Note: These calculations do not include additional steam that can be generated in
addition to what is required to operate the refinery and chemical production plant
Preliminary Economics of a
Trigeneration Facility
Economics
A) Operating Costs
Total Capital Requirements $3 bil
1
Annual Operating Cost $120 mil
Annual Crude Oil Costs $550 mil
Total Annual Operating Costs $1,120 mil
2
B) Revenue
Revenue from Premium Fuel
3
$935 mil
Revenue from Chemical Feedstock
4
$50 mil
Total Annual Revenue $985 mil
Revenue needed from electricity sales $135 mil
C) Cost of Electricity
Annual required electricity revenue $135 mil
Total annual electricity generation 4.93x10
6
MWH
Cost of electricity (busbar) $27.3/MWH
Notes: 1. Best estimate as per discussion with oil companies & $1 billion for power plant cost
2. Projected from refinery data with 15-year recovery period
3. Assumes current price of petroleum fuel (80 cents/gal.)
4. Assumes average price of 72 cents/gal
Energy Use vs Energy R&D
Coal & natural gas R&D funding must increase
Challenges Facing Coal for
Future Power Generation
A. Environmental Issues
Proposed legislation of 0.15 lb/MBTU limit on NO
X
emissions
Proposed PM2.5 legislation that may require additional 60% SO
2
removal over CAAA of 1990
Global climate change and CO
2
emissions
Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) & air toxics, including Hg
emissions control at the ppb level
B. Infrastructure-related Issues
C. Deregulation/Restructuring Issues:
Will the future market price of electricity be able to absorb these
additional costs?
Can coal-fired generation be competitive in the future under
these scenarios?
Conclusions
Fossil fuels will remain the dominant
energy source in foreseeable future
Environmental constraints demand
cleaner, more efficient utilization
Near to mid-term answer for coal is
gasification
Coal gasification could accelerate
the Hydrogen Economy.
Appendix
Appendix:
Power Capacity in the Baseline
Scenario
Appendix: Power Generation in
the Baseline Scenario
Appendix: Investment
Requirements for Generation
by Scenario
Appendix: Total Discounted
Costs, Emissions, and Fuel
Consumption