SBE10 - 07a (Read-Only) (Compatibility Mode)

1
11 Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western

Chapter 7, Part A Chapter 7, Part A
Sampling and Sampling istri!utions Sampling and Sampling istri!utions
x Sampling istri!ution o" Sampling istri!ution o"
#ntrodu$tion to Sampling istri!utions #ntrodu$tion to Sampling istri!utions
Point %stimation Point %stimation
Simple &andom Sampling Simple &andom Sampling
The purpose o" The purpose o" statisti$al in"eren$e statisti$al in"eren$e is to o!tain is to o!tain
in"ormation a!out a population "rom in"ormation in"ormation a!out a population "rom in"ormation
$ontained in a sample' $ontained in a sample'
Statisti$al #n"eren$e Statisti$al #n"eren$e
A A population population is the set o" all the elements o" interest' is the set o" all the elements o" interest'
A A sample sample is a su!set o" the population' is a su!set o" the population'
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(( Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
The sample results pro)ide onl* The sample results pro)ide onl* estimates estimates o" the o" the
)alues o" the population $hara$teristi$s' )alues o" the population $hara$teristi$s'
A A parameter parameter is a numeri$al $hara$teristi$ o" a is a numeri$al $hara$teristi$ o" a
population' population'
With With proper sampling methods proper sampling methods, the sample results , the sample results
$an pro)ide +good, estimates o" the population $an pro)ide +good, estimates o" the population
$hara$teristi$s' $hara$teristi$s'
Statisti$al #n"eren$e Statisti$al #n"eren$e
-- Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
Simple &andom Sampling. Simple &andom Sampling.
/inite Population /inite Population
/inite populations /inite populations are o"ten de"ined !* lists su$h as. are o"ten de"ined !* lists su$h as.
001rgani2ation mem!ership roster 1rgani2ation mem!ership roster
00Credit $ard a$$ount num!ers Credit $ard a$$ount num!ers
00#n)entor* produ$t num!ers #n)entor* produ$t num!ers
A A simple random sample o" si2e simple random sample o" si2e n n "rom a "inite "rom a "inite
population o" si2e population o" si2e NN is a sample sele$ted su$h is a sample sele$ted su$h
that ea$h possi!le sample o" si2e that ea$h possi!le sample o" si2e n n has the same has the same
pro!a!ilit* o" !eing sele$ted' pro!a!ilit* o" !eing sele$ted'
(
/inite Population /inite Population
#n large sampling pro3e$ts, $omputer #n large sampling pro3e$ts, $omputer- -generated generated
random num!ers random num!ers are o"ten used to automate the are o"ten used to automate the
sample sele$tion pro$ess' sample sele$tion pro$ess'
Sampling 4ithout repla$ement Sampling 4ithout repla$ement is the pro$edure is the pro$edure
used most o"ten' used most o"ten'
&epla$ing ea$h sampled element !e"ore sele$ting &epla$ing ea$h sampled element !e"ore sele$ting
su!se5uent elements is $alled su!se5uent elements is $alled sampling 4ith sampling 4ith
repla$ement repla$ement''
#n"inite populations are o"ten de"ined !* an #n"inite populations are o"ten de"ined !* an ongoing ongoing
pro$ess pro$ess 4here!* the elements o" the population 4here!* the elements o" the population
$onsist o" items generated as though the pro$ess 4ould $onsist o" items generated as though the pro$ess 4ould
operate inde"initel*' operate inde"initel*'
#n"inite Population #n"inite Population
A A simple random sample "rom an in"inite population simple random sample "rom an in"inite population
is a sample sele$ted su$h that the "ollo4ing $onditions is a sample sele$ted su$h that the "ollo4ing $onditions
are satis"ied' are satis"ied'
00 %a$h element sele$ted $omes "rom the same %a$h element sele$ted $omes "rom the same
00 %a$h element is sele$ted independentl*' %a$h element is sele$ted independentl*'
-
#n"inite Population #n"inite Population
The random num!er sele$tion pro$edure $annot !e The random num!er sele$tion pro$edure $annot !e
used "or in"inite populations' used "or in"inite populations'
#n the $ase o" in"inite populations, it is impossi!le to #n the $ase o" in"inite populations, it is impossi!le to
o!tain a list o" all elements in the population' o!tain a list o" all elements in the population'
s s is the is the point estimator point estimator o" the population standard o" the population standard
de)iation de)iation ''
#n #n point estimation point estimation 4e use the data "rom the sample 4e use the data "rom the sample
to $ompute a )alue o" a sample statisti$ that ser)es to $ompute a )alue o" a sample statisti$ that ser)es
as an estimate o" a population parameter' as an estimate o" a population parameter'
We re"er to We re"er to as the as the point estimator point estimator o" the population o" the population
mean mean ''
x
is the is the point estimator point estimator o" the population proportion o" the population proportion pp'' p
5
Sampling %rror Sampling %rror
Statisti$al methods $an !e used to ma9e pro!a!ilit* Statisti$al methods $an !e used to ma9e pro!a!ilit*
statements a!out the si2e o" the sampling error' statements a!out the si2e o" the sampling error'
Sampling error is the result o" using a su!set o" the Sampling error is the result o" using a su!set o" the
population :the sample;, and not the entire population :the sample;, and not the entire
The a!solute )alue o" the di""eren$e !et4een an The a!solute )alue o" the di""eren$e !et4een an
un!iased point estimate and the $orresponding un!iased point estimate and the $orresponding
population parameter is $alled the population parameter is $alled the sampling error sampling error''
When the e<pe$ted )alue o" a point estimator is e5ual When the e<pe$ted )alue o" a point estimator is e5ual
to the population parameter, the point estimator is said to the population parameter, the point estimator is said
to !e to !e un!iased un!iased''
10 10 Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
Sampling %rror Sampling %rror
The sampling errors are. The sampling errors are.
= = p p "or sample proportion "or sample proportion
= = s "or sample standard de)iation "or sample standard de)iation
= = x "or sample mean "or sample mean
6
%<ample. St' Andre4>s %<ample. St' Andre4>s
St' Andre4>s College re$ei)es St' Andre4>s College re$ei)es
800 appli$ations annuall* "rom 800 appli$ations annuall* "rom
prospe$ti)e students' The prospe$ti)e students' The
appli$ation "orm $ontains appli$ation "orm $ontains
a )ariet* o" in"ormation a )ariet* o" in"ormation
in$luding the indi)idual>s in$luding the indi)idual>s
s$holasti$ aptitude test :SAT; s$ore and 4hether or not s$holasti$ aptitude test :SAT; s$ore and 4hether or not
the indi)idual desires on the indi)idual desires on- -$ampus housing' $ampus housing'
The dire$tor o" admissions The dire$tor o" admissions
4ould li9e to 9no4 the 4ould li9e to 9no4 the
"ollo4ing in"ormation. "ollo4ing in"ormation.
00the a)erage SAT s$ore "or the a)erage SAT s$ore "or
the 800 appli$ants, and the 800 appli$ants, and
00the proportion o" the proportion o"
appli$ants that 4ant to li)e on $ampus' appli$ants that 4ant to li)e on $ampus'
7
1( 1( Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
We 4ill no4 loo9 at three We 4ill no4 loo9 at three
alternati)es "or o!taining the alternati)es "or o!taining the
desired in"ormation' desired in"ormation'
Condu$ting a $ensus o" the Condu$ting a $ensus o" the
entire 800 appli$ants entire 800 appli$ants
Sele$ting a sample o" (0 Sele$ting a sample o" (0
appli$ants, using a random num!er ta!le appli$ants, using a random num!er ta!le
Sele$ting a sample o" (0 appli$ants, using %<$el Sele$ting a sample o" (0 appli$ants, using %<$el
1- 1- Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
Condu$ting a Census Condu$ting a Census
#" the rele)ant data "or the entire 800 appli$ants 4ere #" the rele)ant data "or the entire 800 appli$ants 4ere
in the $ollege>s data!ase, the population parameters o" in the $ollege>s data!ase, the population parameters o"
interest $ould !e $al$ulated using the "ormulas interest $ould !e $al$ulated using the "ormulas
presented in Chapter (' presented in Chapter ('
We 4ill assume "or the moment that $ondu$ting a We 4ill assume "or the moment that $ondu$ting a
$ensus is pra$ti$al in this e<ample' $ensus is pra$ti$al in this e<ample'
7
880
800
i
x
= =
2
: ;
70
800
i
x

= =
Condu$ting a Census Condu$ting a Census

6-7
'72
800
p = =
Population ?ean SAT S$ore Population ?ean SAT S$ore
Population Standard e)iation "or SAT S$ore Population Standard e)iation "or SAT S$ore
Population Proportion Wanting 1n Population Proportion Wanting 1n- -Campus @ousing Campus @ousing
Simple &andom Sampling Simple &andom Sampling
The appli$ants 4ere num!ered, "rom 1 to 800, as The appli$ants 4ere num!ered, "rom 1 to 800, as
their appli$ations arri)ed' their appli$ations arri)ed'
She de$ides a sample o" (0 appli$ants 4ill !e used' She de$ides a sample o" (0 appli$ants 4ill !e used'
/urthermore, the ire$tor o" Admissions must o!tain /urthermore, the ire$tor o" Admissions must o!tain
estimates o" the population parameters o" interest "or estimates o" the population parameters o" interest "or
a meeting ta9ing pla$e in a "e4 hours' a meeting ta9ing pla$e in a "e4 hours'
Ao4 suppose that the ne$essar* data on the Ao4 suppose that the ne$essar* data on the
$urrent *ear>s appli$ants 4ere not *et entered in the $urrent *ear>s appli$ants 4ere not *et entered in the
$ollege>s data!ase' $ollege>s data!ase'
8
Ta9ing a Sample o" (0 Appli$ants Ta9ing a Sample o" (0 Appli$ants
Bsing a &andom Aum!er Ta!le Bsing a &andom Aum!er Ta!le
00 We 4ill use the We 4ill use the last last three digits o" the 5 three digits o" the 5- -digit digit
random num!ers in the random num!ers in the third third $olumn o" the $olumn o" the
te<t!oo9>s random num!er ta!le, and $ontinue te<t!oo9>s random num!er ta!le, and $ontinue
into the "ourth $olumn as needed' into the "ourth $olumn as needed'
00 Ce$ause the "inite population has 800 elements, 4e Ce$ause the "inite population has 800 elements, 4e
4ill need ( 4ill need (- -digit random num!ers to randoml* digit random num!ers to randoml*
sele$t appli$ants num!ered "rom 1 to 800' sele$t appli$ants num!ered "rom 1 to 800'
00 :We 4ill go through all o" $olumn ( and part o" :We 4ill go through all o" $olumn ( and part o"
$olumn - o" the random num!er ta!le, en$ountering $olumn - o" the random num!er ta!le, en$ountering
in the pro$ess "i)e num!ers greater than 800 and in the pro$ess "i)e num!ers greater than 800 and
one dupli$ate, 7(5'; one dupli$ate, 7(5';
00 We 4ill $ontinue to dra4 random num!ers until We 4ill $ontinue to dra4 random num!ers until
4e ha)e sele$ted (0 appli$ants "or our sample' 4e ha)e sele$ted (0 appli$ants "or our sample'
00 The num!ers 4e dra4 4ill !e the num!ers o" the The num!ers 4e dra4 4ill !e the num!ers o" the
appli$ants 4e 4ill sample unless appli$ants 4e 4ill sample unless
00 the random num!er is greater than 800 or the random num!er is greater than 800 or
00 the random num!er has alread* !een used' the random num!er has alread* !een used'
10
Bse o" &andom Aum!ers "or Sampling Bse o" &andom Aum!ers "or Sampling
7-- 7--
-(6 -(6
765 765
780 780
7(5 7(5
802 802
180 180
7(6 7(6
' ' ' and so on ' ' ' and so on
((- -igit igit
&andom Aum!er &andom Aum!er
Appli$ant Appli$ant
#n$luded in Sample #n$luded in Sample
Ao' -(6 Ao' -(6
Ao' 765 Ao' 765
Ao' 780 Ao' 780
Ao' 7(5 Ao' 7(5
Aum!er e<$eeds 800 Aum!er e<$eeds 800
Ao' 180 Ao' 180
Ao' 7(6 Ao' 7(6
Ao' 7-- Ao' 7--
Sample ata Sample ata
11 7-- 7-- Conrad @arris Conrad @arris 1025 1025 Des Des
22 -(6 -(6 %nri5ue &omero %nri5ue &omero 850 850 Des Des
(( 765 765 /a!ian A)ante /a!ian A)ante 1080 1080 Ao Ao
-- 780 780 Eu$ila Cru2 Eu$ila Cru2 1120 1120 Des Des
55 7(5 7(5 Chan Chiang Chan Chiang 8(0 8(0 Ao Ao
'' '' '' '' ''
(0 (0 -87 -87 %mil* ?orse %mil* ?orse 1010 1010 Ao Ao
Ao' Ao'
&andom &andom
Aum!er Aum!er Appli$ant Appli$ant
SAT SAT
S$ore S$ore
Ei)e 1n Ei)e 1n- -
Campus Campus
'' '' '' '' ''
11
00 Then 4e $hoose the (0 appli$ants $orresponding Then 4e $hoose the (0 appli$ants $orresponding
to the (0 smallest random num!ers as our sample' to the (0 smallest random num!ers as our sample'
00 /or e<ample, %<$el>s "un$tion /or e<ample, %<$el>s "un$tion
F &AAC%TW%%A:1,800; F &AAC%TW%%A:1,800;
$an !e used to generate random num!ers !et4een $an !e used to generate random num!ers !et4een
1 and 800' 1 and 800'
00 Computers $an !e used to generate random Computers $an !e used to generate random
num!ers "or sele$ting random samples' num!ers "or sele$ting random samples'
Bsing a Computer Bsing a Computer
as Point %stimator o" as Point %stimator o" x
as Point %stimator o" as Point %stimator o" pp p
28, 810
887
(0 (0
i
x
x = = =
2
: ;
16(, 886
75'2
28 28
i
x x
s

= = =
20 (0 '67 p = =
Aote. Aote. i""erent random num!ers 4ould ha)e i""erent random num!ers 4ould ha)e
identi"ied a di""erent sample 4hi$h 4ould ha)e identi"ied a di""erent sample 4hi$h 4ould ha)e
resulted in di""erent point estimates' resulted in di""erent point estimates'
s s as Point %stimator o" as Point %stimator o"
12
2( 2( Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
Population Population
Parameter Parameter
Point Point
%stimator %stimator
Point Point
%stimate %stimate
Parameter Parameter
Galue Galue
F Population mean F Population mean
SAT s$ore SAT s$ore
880 880 887 887
F Population std' F Population std'
de)iation "or de)iation "or
SAT s$ore SAT s$ore
70 70 s s F Sample std' F Sample std'
de)iation "or de)iation "or
SAT s$ore SAT s$ore
75'2 75'2
pp F Population pro F Population pro- -
portion 4anting portion 4anting
$ampus housing $ampus housing
'72 '72 '67 '67
Summar* o" Point %stimates Summar* o" Point %stimates
1!tained "rom a Simple &andom Sample 1!tained "rom a Simple &andom Sample
F Sample mean F Sample mean
SAT s$ore SAT s$ore
x
F Sample pro F Sample pro- -
portion 4anting portion 4anting
$ampus housing $ampus housing
p
2- 2- Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
Pro$ess o" Statisti$al #n"eren$e Pro$ess o" Statisti$al #n"eren$e
The )alue o" is used to The )alue o" is used to
ma9e in"eren$es a!out ma9e in"eren$es a!out
the )alue o" the )alue o" ''
x The sample data The sample data
pro)ide a )alue "or pro)ide a )alue "or
the sample mean the sample mean '' x
A simple random sample A simple random sample
o" o" n n elements is sele$ted elements is sele$ted
"rom the population' "rom the population'
Population Population
4ith mean 4ith mean
F H F H
Sampling istri!ution o" Sampling istri!ution o" x
1(
The The sampling distri!ution o" sampling distri!ution o" is the pro!a!ilit* is the pro!a!ilit*
distri!ution o" all possi!le )alues o" the sample distri!ution o" all possi!le )alues o" the sample
mean ' mean '
x
x
4here. 4here.
F the population mean F the population mean
EE: ; F : ; F x
x %<pe$ted Galue o" %<pe$ted Galue o"
/inite Population /inite Population #n"inite Population #n"inite Population

x
n
N n
N
=

( )
1

x
n
=
00 is re"erred to as the is re"erred to as the standard error o" the standard error o" the
mean mean''
x
00 A "inite population is treated as !eing A "inite population is treated as !eing
in"inite i" in"inite i" n n//NNII '05' '05'
00 is the "inite $orre$tion "a$tor' is the "inite $orre$tion "a$tor' ( ) / ( ) N n N 1
x Standard e)iation o" Standard e)iation o"
1-
/orm o" the Sampling istri!ution o" /orm o" the Sampling istri!ution o" x
#" 4e use a large : #" 4e use a large :n n JJ (0; simple random sample, the (0; simple random sample, the
$entral limit theorem $entral limit theoremena!les us to $on$lude that the ena!les us to $on$lude that the
sampling distri!ution o" $an !e appro<imated !* sampling distri!ution o" $an !e appro<imated !*
a normal distri!ution' a normal distri!ution'
x
When the simple random sample is small : When the simple random sample is small :n n I (0;, I (0;,
the sampling distri!ution o" $an !e $onsidered the sampling distri!ution o" $an !e $onsidered
normal onl* i" 4e assume the population has a normal onl* i" 4e assume the population has a
normal distri!ution' normal distri!ution'
x
70
1-'6
(0
x
n
= = =
: ; 880 E x =
x
Sampling istri!ution o" Sampling istri!ution o" "or SAT S$ores "or SAT S$ores x
Sampling Sampling
istri!ution istri!ution
o" o" x
15
What is the pro!a!ilit* that a simple random sample What is the pro!a!ilit* that a simple random sample
o" (0 appli$ants 4ill pro)ide an estimate o" the o" (0 appli$ants 4ill pro)ide an estimate o" the
population mean SAT s$ore that is 4ithin K/ population mean SAT s$ore that is 4ithin K/10 o" 10 o"
the a$tual population mean the a$tual population mean H H
#n other 4ords, 4hat is the pro!a!ilit* that 4ill !e #n other 4ords, 4hat is the pro!a!ilit* that 4ill !e
!et4een 870 and 1000H !et4een 870 and 1000H
x
(0 (0 Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
Step 1. Step 1. Cal$ulate the Cal$ulate the zz- -)alue at the )alue at the upper upper endpoint o" endpoint o"
the inter)al' the inter)al'
zz F :1000 F :1000 -- 880;/1-'6F '67 880;/1-'6F '67
PP: :zz II '67; F '7517 '67; F '7517
Step 2. Step 2. /ind the area under the $ur)e to the le"t o" the /ind the area under the $ur)e to the le"t o" the
upper upper endpoint' endpoint'
16
Cumulati)e Pro!a!ilities "or Cumulati)e Pro!a!ilities "or
the Standard Aormal istri!ution the Standard Aormal istri!ution
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
. . . . . . . . . . .
.5
'6815 '6850 '6875 '7018 '705- '7077 '712( '7157 '7180 '722-
.6
'7257 '7281 '7(2- '7(57 '7(78 '7-22 '7-5- '7-76 '7517 '75-8
.7
'7570 '7611 '76-2 '767( '770- '77(- '776- '778- '772( '7752
.8
'7771 '7810 '78(8 '7867 '7885 '702( '7051 '7077 '7106 '71((
.9
'7158 '7176 '7212 '72(7 '726- '7278 '7(15 '7(-0 '7(65 '7(78
. . . . . . . . . . .
x
880 880
Sampling Sampling
o" o" x
1-'6
x
=
1000 1000
Area F '7517 Area F '7517
17
(( (( Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
Step (. Step (. Cal$ulate the Cal$ulate the zz- -)alue at the )alue at the lo4er lo4er endpoint o" endpoint o"
the inter)al' the inter)al'
Step -. Step -. /ind the area under the $ur)e to the le"t o" the /ind the area under the $ur)e to the le"t o" the
lo4er lo4er endpoint' endpoint'
zz F :870 F :870 -- 880;/1-'6F 880;/1-'6F - - '67 '67
PP: :zz II - -'67; F '67; F PP: :zz JJ '67; '67;
F '2-7( F '2-7(
F 1 F 1 -- ' 7517 ' 7517
F 1 F 1 -- PP: :zz II '67; '67;
(- (- Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
x
870 870 880 880
Area F '2-7( Area F '2-7(
Sampling Sampling
o" o" x
1-'6
x
=
17
Step 5. Step 5. Cal$ulate the area under the $ur)e !et4een Cal$ulate the area under the $ur)e !et4een
the lo4er and upper endpoints o" the inter)al' the lo4er and upper endpoints o" the inter)al'
PP: :- -'67 '67 II zz II '67; F '67; F PP: :zz II '67; '67; -- PP: :zz II - -'67; '67;
F '7517 F '7517 -- '2-7( '2-7(
F '50(- F '50(-
The pro!a!ilit* that the sample mean SAT s$ore 4ill The pro!a!ilit* that the sample mean SAT s$ore 4ill
!e !et4een 870 and 1000 is. !e !et4een 870 and 1000 is.
PP:870 :870 II II 1000; F '50(- 1000; F '50(- x
x
1000 1000 870 870 880 880
Area F '50(- Area F '50(-
Sampling Sampling
o" o" x
1-'6
x
=
18
&elationship Cet4een the Sample Si2e &elationship Cet4een the Sample Si2e
and the Sampling istri!ution o" and the Sampling istri!ution o" x
Suppose 4e sele$t a simple random sample o" 100 Suppose 4e sele$t a simple random sample o" 100
appli$ants instead o" the (0 originall* $onsidered' appli$ants instead o" the (0 originall* $onsidered'
EE: ; F : ; F regardless o" the sample si2e' #n our regardless o" the sample si2e' #n our
e<ample, e<ample, EE: ; remains at 880' : ; remains at 880'
x
x
Whene)er the sample si2e is in$reased, the standard Whene)er the sample si2e is in$reased, the standard
error o" the mean is de$reased' With the in$rease error o" the mean is de$reased' With the in$rease
in the sample si2e to in the sample si2e to n n F 100, the standard error o" the F 100, the standard error o" the
mean is de$reased to. mean is de$reased to.
x
70
7'0
100
x
n
= = =
: ; 880 E x =
x
1-'6
x
=
With With n n F (0, F (0,
7
x
=
With With n n F 100, F 100,
20
&e$all that 4hen &e$all that 4hen n n F (0, F (0, PP:870 :870 II II 1000; F '50(-' 1000; F '50(-' x
We "ollo4 the same steps to sol)e "or We "ollo4 the same steps to sol)e "or PP:870 :870 II II 1000; 1000;
4hen 4hen n n F 100 as 4e sho4ed earlier 4hen F 100 as 4e sho4ed earlier 4hen n n F (0' F (0'
x
Ao4, 4ith Ao4, 4ith n n F 100, F 100, PP:870 :870 II II 1000; F '7777' 1000; F '7777' x
Ce$ause the sampling distri!ution 4ith Ce$ause the sampling distri!ution 4ith n n F 100 has a F 100 has a
smaller standard error, the )alues o" ha)e less smaller standard error, the )alues o" ha)e less
)aria!ilit* and tend to !e $loser to the population )aria!ilit* and tend to !e $loser to the population
mean than the )alues o" 4ith mean than the )alues o" 4ith n n F (0' F (0'
x
x
-0 -0 Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
x
1000 1000 870 870 880 880
Area F '7777 Area F '7777
Sampling Sampling
o" o" x
7
x
=
21
-1 -1 Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western
%nd o" Chapter 7, Part A %nd o" Chapter 7, Part A

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11 Slide Slide 2005 Thomson/South 2005 Thomson/South- -Western Western

Condu$ting a Census Condu$ting a Census

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