Total No.

of
Questions
-
101
[Total
Nc. cf Pr-intcd
pagcs
-
g
MBA_IIl5
216522
M.B.A.
(Management
Science
in Decision Making
)
( New Course
)
Time Allowed: 3 Hours
Maximum
Marks: 70
l{ote: Attempt
Jive
questions
in ail serecting
one question
Ji"orn
each Unit. Each question cayries 14 marlcs.
TINIT
_
I
l. A manufacturer
makes a product,
of'which
the principal
ingredient is a chemicar X. At the moment, the manui.acturer
spends Rs.l000 per year on supplv of X, but there is a
possibility
that the price
may soon increase to four times its
present
figure because of a worrdwide
shortage of the
chemical. There is another chemical
y,
which the
manufacturer could use in conjunction with the third chemical
Z in order to give the same effect as chemical X. chemicar
y
& Z would together cost the manufacturer
Rs.3000 per year,
but their prices are unlikely to rise. what action should the
manufacturer take:
(a) Apply the Maximin and Minimax criteria
for decision
making and give two sets of solutions.
couRsE
NO.203
z.
(2)
(b) If the coefhcient
of optimisn
is 0'4' find the course of
action that minimizes
the cost'
A businessman
has trvo independent
investment
portfolios
A
and B available
to him, but he lacks the capital
to underlake
both
of them simultaneously'
He can choose A first and then
stop, or if A is not successful'
then take B or vice-versa'
The
probabiliry
of success
of A is 0'6' while for B is 0'4' Both the
investment
schemes
tequire an initial
capital
outlay
of
Rs.10,000
and both
return nothing
if the venture
is
unsuccessfui.
Successful
completion
of z\ u'ill retum
Rs.20,000
(over cost) and successflil
completion
of B will
retum
Rs'24,000
(over cost)' Draw a decision
tree and
determine
the best strategY'
UNIT
-
II
3. Using
the
penalty
(Big-M) method solve
the following
LP
problem:
Maximize'Z:
xl
* 2x2+ 3 x3
-
xa
Subject
to constraints
x1
+ 2 xz+3 x,r = 15
2x1 -x2t5x;=20
x1*2Xz*x:*x+:10
where X1, X2' x3, Xa Z
0
I
i
(3)
The XYZ company
has the option
of producing
two products
during period
of srack activity.
For the next period,
production
has been schedured
so that the miting
machine
is free for r0
hours and skilled rabour
wiil have
g
hours of time available.
For the above Lp problem:
(a)
Write dowathe
dual form
(b)
obtain the optimar
sorution for the primar
form.
UNIT
_
III
A company
has three factories (Fr, Fz & F:
)
which supply tc
three warehouses
( W1,W2
& W:
).
Weekly
factory
capacities
are 200' 160 and
g0
trnits respectivery.
weekry
warehouse
requirements
are 1g0, r20 and 150 units respectivery.
The unit
shrpprng
costs (in
rupees) are as given
below:
Product
Machine time
Per unit
Skilled labour
fime ner rr.r't
Prnfit
contribution
pcr
unit
5
---.--.---.==_-----
J,
A
4
2
B
2
2
wl w2 w3
Fl
F'2
F3
I6
l4
26
20
I
24
l)
I8
I6
(4)
Obtain air
ii)
Initial soluticn for the given ffanspoflation
problern
'
using Vogel's Approxinia:!+n
Method: and
(ii) Optimal solutlcn hr
the given trailspcftation
probic:n using MODI method.
A small airlines company, owning five planes operaie-q on all
ihe seven days of the week. Flights between ihe three cities A,
B and c a*cording to the schedule is given in the table belor,v.
The layover cosi psr stop is roughly proportional to the sqllare
of the layovcr time.:
FlightNo From
I
Departure time
I
(in hours)
To
i
Arrival time
|
( in hours)
1
2
J
4
5
6
I
8
9
10
A
A
A
A
A
B
B
B
C
C
09:00
10:00
15:00
20:00
22:00
04:00
11:00
15:00
07:00
15:00
B
B
B
(-
C
A
l2:00
13:00
18:00
Midnight
02:00
07:00
14:00
18:00
I 1:00
19:00
A
A
A
A
!
I
I
i
I
I
I
I
7.
(s)
Find how the pian';*s should be assigned to the rlights
so as to
rniniinize the tctal la3'over cost? \l.hile solving for the above
problem
assurne the foll*wing conditions:
(a) A plane cannot make more than two trips ( to and fro);
(b) A plane flying from a particular destination
mirst be back
within 24 hours fcr the next scheduled
trip from the
destination.
LINIT
-
IV
The following is the table showing details of a project:
The indirect cost is Rs.400 per day
(a) Draw the network diagram and identify the critical path;
(b) What are the normal project duration & associated cost;
Activitl
Immediate
Predecessor
Normal
Cras
Time
(in
davs)
Cost
(in
Rs,'0001
Time
{in davs
-T;st
(in
Rs.'000i
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
B
B
B
E
A,D,C
t0
8
5
6
8
5
t2
20
1s
8
11
9
5
3
7
6
4
4
5
4
8
30
2A
l4
15
15
8
4
8.
(6)
(c) Crash the relevant activities systematically and determine
the optimum project cornpletion time and cost.
'lhe
data for a PERT network is displayed in the table below:
Time Estimates (in days)
Activity Sequence Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
l-2
I
-3
l-4
t- J
2-5
3-4
3-6
4-6
5-6
(a) Draw the network
Path.
666
61224
2s8
l1 l4
15 24
36
9 15
410
diagram and determine the critical
23
45
9
27
16
(b) What is the expected duration of completion of the entire
project?
(c) What is the probability that the project duration will
exceed 60 days?
(d)
(e)
(7
)
What is the chance of completing the project between 45
days and 54 days?
It becomes known later that the three time estimates for
the activity 4
-
6 have to be revised to 14, 20 and.32 for
Optimistic, Most Likely and Pessimistic time estimates
respectively. What impact does this have on the project
duration? What will be the probability
that the project
can now be completed before 46 days? For the above
PERT problem the additional data.given is as fallsws:
z 0.40 4.25 A.50 0.75 1.0A t.S0 I.6T
(zsz) a.s00 0.599 0.692'0.778 0.84r 0.9s3 0.9s3
UNIT
_
V
In a small town, there are only two stores, ABC & XyZ, that
handle sundry goods. The total number of customers is equally
divided between the two, because price and quality of goods
sold are equal. Both the stores have good reputation in the
community, and they render equally good customer service.
Assume that a gain of customers by ABC is a loss to XyZ and
vice-versa. Both the stores plan to run annual pre-Deepawali
sales during the first week of November. The sales are
9.
l'6.'
advertised through a local newspaper, radio and television
rnedia. With the aid of the advertising firm, store ABC
consffucted the game matrix as given below (the figures in the
matrix represent a gainor loss customers.
Strategt of ABC Nauspaper Radio Television
Newspaper
Radio
Television
30 40
015
90 20 s0
10.
Determine the optimal strategies and the worth of such
strategies for both ABC and XYZ stores.
,
A bakery keeps stock of popular brand of cake. The daily
demand based on past experience is"liven below:
Daily Demand 0 15 25 35 45 50
Probability 0.01 0.15 0.2a 0.50 a.n 0.02
Consider the foliowing sequence of random numbers:
48,78, Ag, 51,56, 77, 15, 14, 68and09.
(a) Using the sequence, simulate the demand for the
next 10 days.
(b) Find the stock situation if the owner of the bakery
decides to make 35 cakes everyday. Also estimate the
daily average demand for the cakes on the basis of the
simulated data.
*******d<{<*****
Strateg,, of XYZ