Monthly dynamics of the volume of export to Ukraine

Share of Major Commodity Positions by Export to Ukraine, I quarter 2014

In March 2014, the volume of export (-33.3%; -5.1 mln.USD) as well as the volume of import (-4.3%; -2.1 mln.USD)
decreased signifcantly compared to March 2013.
In the frst quarter of 2014, according to the share in total export (8%) , Ukraine is the fourth largest partner of Georgia.
According to the share in total import (6%) , Ukraine is Georgias ffth largest partner. In 2013 Ukraine was the third larg-
est trading partner in import (8% of total import), as well as in export (7% of total export). This change can be explained
due to the crisis in Ukraine and extension of trade with Russia.
Despite the crisis, Ukraine still remains one of the largest trading partner of Georgia. it is recommended to make the
markets for export as well as imports more diversifed. The signing of the Association Agreement and its component ,
DCFTA, in 27 June 2014 will encourage these processes.
ISSUE #25 / 22.05.2014
Trade With Ukraine - I quarter 2014
Economic Outlook and Indicators
Share of Major Commodity Positions by Import to Ukraine, I quarter 2014
Tobacco
12%
iron 7%
Oil 5%
Coke,5%
Semi-finished
products of
iron 4%
5%
Other 66%
In the frst quarter of 2014, the structure of the exported commodities to Ukraine difers from the frst quarter of 2013.
The largest exported product is locomotives (39%) . The share of mineral waters (- 5 percentage points) , alcohol ( -10),
ferro-alloy (-9) and wines (-8) in total export decreased.
In the frst quarter of 2014, the structure of imported production from Ukraine is the following : tobacco (14%),
fttings (7%), coke (6%), Semi-fnished carbon steel (5%) and chocolate (4%). Its noteworthy, that sugar and oil is no
more among the fve largest imported productions from Ukraine, while the import of oil from Russia has signifcantly
increased in mentioned period ( 126.9%; 1.8 mln. USD).
0
5
10
15
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25
30
35
40
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
m
l
n
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U
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D
2012 2013 2014
Monthly dynamics of the volume of import from Ukraine
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
m
l
n
.
U
S
D
2012 2013 2014
In 2014 the monthly dynamics of the volume of export has downward trend. In March 2014, the volume of export
decreased signifcantly (-33.3%; -5.1 mln.USD) compared to the indicator of March 2013, while the indicators of Jan-
uary (144.1%, 13.8 mln. USD) and February ( 148.1%, 13.6 mln.USD) were higher compared to the corresponding
indicators in January and February 2013.
In 2014, the volume of import decreased in March (-4.3%; -2.1 mln.USD), as well as in January (-4.9%; -1.7 mln. USD)
and February (-19.9%; -7.9 mln.USD) compared to the corresponding indicators in 2013.
Locomotives
39%
Mineral
waters 17%
Alcohol 13%
Ferro-alloys
9%
Wines 9%
Other 13%
Alcohol 23%
Mineral waters
22%
Ferro-alloys
18%
Wines 17%
Nuts 7%
Other 13%
2013 I quarter
Tobacco
14%
Fittings 7%
Coke 6%
Semi-
finished
carbon
steel 5%
Chocolate
4%
Other 64%
Fittings 7%
Oil 6%
Sugar 5%
Other 63%
2013 I quarter

In the frst quarter of 2014, the export of alcohol (-5.2%;-
0.4 mln. USD) as well as wine (-17%; -1 mln USD) in
Ukraine decreased signifcantly, which is mainly due to
the decrease of export in March.
Its noteworthy that the volume of export of alcohols
had decreasing trend in 2013 too (-7.2 %; -2. 6 mln. USD).
In the same period the volume of export of mentioned
commodities to Russia increased. In the frst quarter
of 2014 the volume of export of liquoir and alcohol in-
creased to 4.8 mln USD and the volume of grape wines
increased to 33.2 mln USD.
It should be noted that the government of Ukraine is
going to increase the excise tax on the alcohol
1
. As one
of the largest exported commodities from Georgia to
Ukraine is the alcohol , the increase of excise tax on al-
cohol will afect on the local producers. But the diversi-
fcation of export markets will contribute to solve this
problem.
1. Ukraine - Economic situation - April 2013. U.S.-Ukraine Business Council
Dynamics of export to Ukraine for three major commodities
Share of Top Trading Partners in Total Expots, I quarter of 2014
PMCG Research | Tamar Jugeli | research@pmcg.ge | t.jugheli@pmcg.ge | +995 2 921 171 | www.pmcg-i.com
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
m
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U
S
D
Liqueur & spirits Grape wines Mineral waters
Share of Top Trading Partners in Total Imports, I quarter 2014
In 2013, the share of Ukraine in total export was 7% ( third place). In the frst quarter of 2014 , the share of Ukraine in
total export increased (1 percentage point), but its position changed and became fourth largest partner of Georgia.
While Russia s position is third place.
In 2013, the share of Ukraine in total import was 8% (third place). In the frst quarter of 2014 its share decreased (-2
percentage points) and became 6% (ffth place).
Basic Economic Indicators III12 IV12 2012 I 13* II 13* III 13* IV 13* 2013*
Nominal GDP in current prices (mln USD) 4129 4332.2 15 846.8 3487.6 3958.4 4120.3 4552.9 16126.4
Per capita GDP (USD) 918 963.2 3 523.4 777.8 882.8 918.9 1015.4
3596.6
GDP real growth, percent 7.50% 3.0% 6.2% 2.4% 1.5% 1.4% 7.1% 3.2%
Consumer Price Index (annual average) 99.1 99.5
Foreign Direct Investment (USD) 199 233.7 911.6 226.2 232.4 238.7 217.1 914.4
Unemployment Rate - 15%
External Public Debt (mln USD) - 4739 4202
Poverty Level (registered) - 9.7%
Source: National Statistics Ofce of Georgia
Ministry of Finance of Georgia
National Bank of Georgia
Comtrade.com
* projected
Azerbaijani
21%
Armenia 11%
T
u
r
k
e
y

7
%
Other
countries 43%
Azerbaijan
24%
Armenia
11%
Ukraine
7%
Russia
7%
Turkey
6%
Rest of theWorld
45%
2013
Turkey
17%
Azerbaijan
8%
Ukraine
8%
Russia
7%
China
7%
Other
53%
2013
Turkey
17%
Azerbaijan
10%
Chian
9%
Other countries
51%