Sanjeev Sabhlok Preliminary Draft 25 May 2014 This is very preliminary. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google combined have something close to $1 trillion in market capitalization. Together, the for of them employ fe!er than 1"#,### people. $ote that #e still haven$t pro%uce% machines #ith common sense& vision& natural lan!ua!e processin!& or the ability to create other machines" 'ur efforts at %irectly simulatin! human brains remain primitive" (Source) Peter Diaman%is has ar!ue% that a%vances in *"+" #ill be one key to usherin! in a ne# era of ,abun%ance&- #ith enou!h foo%& #ater& an% consumer !a%!ets for all" Skeptics like .ric /rynjolfsson an% + have #orrie% about the conse0uences of *"+" an% robotics for employment" /ut even if you put asi%e the sort of #orries about #hat super1a%vance% *"+" mi!ht %o to the labor market& there$s another concern& too2 that po#erful *"+" mi!ht threaten us more %irectly& by battlin! us for resources" (Source) i 3ontents 1" 4rom aroun% 2000 *D2 the .arly 5obotic *!e""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1 1"1"1 *utonomous economy""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6 1"2 7i%eo intro%uction to the issues"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6 1"6 *!ricultural a!e as a major %iscontinuity from the huntin! !atherin! a!e 6 1"6"1"1 8he *rtilect *!e""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4 1"4 *re there any 9har% limits$ on a%vances in robotics:*+;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4 1"4"1 Har%#are limits"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4 1"4"1"1 Silicon computer have limits"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4 1"4"1"1 Molecular computers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4 1"4"1"2 <uantum computers #ill breakthrou!h to an unbelievable level""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4 1"4"1"1 =anocomputers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""5 1"4"2 Soft#are limits """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""5 1"4"2"1 *rtificial intelli!ence """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""5 1"4"2"1 'bject reco!nition""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""> 1"4"2"2 Machine learnin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""> 1"4"2"6 5at /rain simulation"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""> 1"4"2"4 Human /rain Project """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""> 1"4"2"5 <uantum computer pro!rammin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""> 1"5 8hree key scenarios""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""> 1"5"1"1 +"?" @oo%$s +ntelli!ence eAplosion concept"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B 1"> Con! term structural chan!e in *ustralia""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D 1"B +n%ustrial machines supplemente% muscle" 5obots supplement our senses an% brains""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""10 1"D 8he 9comin! of a!e$ of robots""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""10 1"D"1 Ehat are robots;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""10 1"D"2 Maturation of many relate% technol!ies""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""11 1"D"2"1 @enome mappin!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12 1"D"2"2 61D printin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 12 1"D"2"6 /iolo!ical computers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12 1"D"2"4 =eural net#orks"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12 1"D"2"5 5ecreation of %etaile% map of the brain"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12 1"D"2"1 4usion""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 16 1"D"2"1 =anotechnolo!y:nanorobots""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""16 1"F Ehat can robots %o;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""16 1"F"1 Physical"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 16 1"F"1"1 21le!!e% robots can #alk in the mi%st of people an% on rou!h surfaces"""""""""""""16 1"F"1"2 41le!!e% robots can run faster than humans """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""16 1"F"1"6 41le!!e% robots can carry loa%s an% #alk faster uphill than humans """"""""""""""""""14 1"F"1"4 .Atreme athleticism in runnin!:flyin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"1"5 3an jump 60 feet""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"1"1 3an fi!ht an% 9kill$ other robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"1"1 3an %ance :play !ames""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"2 DeAterity""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 14 1"F"2"1 3an bounce balls an% catch objects #ith fin!ers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"2"2 Have eAtremely fine 9han%1eye$ coor%ination"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"2"1 3an %rive trains""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"2"2 3an %rive cars an% trucks an% fly planes"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14 1"F"2"1 3an fly helicopeter upsi%e %o#n""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15 1"F"6 7erbal""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15 1"F"6"1 3an talk"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15 1"F"6"2 3an sin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15 1"F"4 3reative"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15 1"F"4"1 3an sketch an% make oil paintin!s GeDavi%H""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15 1"F"4"1 3an make music Gban%sH"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15 ii Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 1"F"1 3o!nitive computin!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15 1"10 Major si!ns that the robotic a!e is upon us""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1> 1"10"1 Si!nificant acceleration in capability""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1> 1"10"1"1 *lrea%y #e have a computer e0ual to human brain in processin! po#er""""""""""1> 1"10"1"1 Pre%ictions""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1> 1"10"1"2 Si!nificant acceleration Gsecon% half of the chessboar%H"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1> 1"10"1"6 Si!nificant acceleration in *+""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B 1"10"2 8he commercial case for robots """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B 1"10"2"1 Dramatically fallin! robot prices"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B 1"10"2"2 8he rise of the multi1purpose robot""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B 1"10"2"6 Many other a%vanta!es of robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B 1"10"6 .vi%ence of commercial %eployment"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B 1"10"6"1 SiIe of robotics in%ustry"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B 1"10"6"2 =umber of Eork3over claims re%ucin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1D 1"10"6"6 =umber of robots increasin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1D 1"10"6"4 Manufacturin! is shiftin! back to the Eest"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1F 1"10"6"5 Su%%enness of chan!e"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1F 1"11 Eho$s %rivin! this rapi% chan!e;"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""20 1"12 Jey or!anisations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""20 1"12"1 +45 G+nternational 4e%eration of 5oboticsH""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""20 1"12"2 D*5P* """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 20 1"12"6 Penta!on"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 20 1"12"4 /oston 5obotics""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""21 1"12"5 Kniversal 5obots """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""21 1"12"> Lamaha """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 21 1"12"B i5obot""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 21 1"12"D 5ethink 5obotics"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""21 1"12"F Jey publicly tra%e% robotic companies""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22 1"12"F"1 Healthcare *pplications2"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22 1"12"F"2 Defense& Security an% Space *pplicationsM2""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22 1"12"F"1 +n%ustrial an% 3o1robot *pplicationsMM2"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22 1"12"F"2 *ncillary businesses to the robotics in%ustry2"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""26 1"16 'pinions """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 24 1"16"1 Mostly positive""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""24 1"16"1"1 5ay JurI#eil"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 24 1"16"1"2 Eilliam CaIonick"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""24 1"16"1"6 Hal 7arian"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""24 1"16"1"4 Dr" Michio Jaku """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25 1"16"1"5 4rank Cevy an% 5ichar% Murnane""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25 1"16"1"> 5obin Hanson"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25 1"16"1"1 E" /rian *rthur""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 25 1"16"1"1 Mark 8homa"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25 1"16"1"1 .lieIer Lu%ko#sky"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25 1"16"1"1 Caurence JatI""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25 1"16"1"1 5obert *tkinson""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25 1"16"1"1 =ick /loom""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 2> 1"16"2 Mostly ne!ative Gi"e" this is a bi! issue for societyH""""""""""""""""""""""2> 1"16"2"1 *n%re# Mc3affee an% .rik /rynjolfsson """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2> 1"16"2"1 ?effrey Sachs an% Ca#rence Jotlikoff""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2B 1"16"2"2 Martin 4or%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2B 1"16"2"6 Jevin Drum""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 2B 1"16"2"4 8yler 3o#en"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2B 1"16"2"5 P/S"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 66 1"16"2"> Paul Jru!man"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""66 1"16"2"B +Iabella Jaminska""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""66 1"16"2"D *leA Hern"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 66 1"16"6 3onfuse%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 64 1"16"6"1 4e%erico Pistono""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""64 1"16"6"1 Peter Diaman%is"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""64 2" .Aamples of robotic innovations Ginclu%in! *+H""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65 2"1 Smart assistants""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65 iii 2"1"1 .Apliner Hi!h17olta!e Po#er 8ransmission Cine +nspection 5obot """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 65 2"1"2 Spare tyre mountin! robot""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65 2"1"6 Packin! assistant""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65 2"1"4 *utomate% vacuum cleaners"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65 2"1"5 8oys"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 65 2"1"> Hospital assistants""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6> 2"1">"1 Me%icine Pickin! an% Deliverin! 5obot System"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6> 2"1">"2 Sur!ical assistants """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6> 2"1">"6 Heavy lifter""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 6> 2"1"B Military assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6> 2"1"D Police assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"1"D"1 Spyin! robot2""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"1"D"1 5obot micorobots:insects"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"1"F *!riculture an% fisheries assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"1"10 =e# forms of transport""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"1"11 Mana!er$s assistants""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"1"12 /ee pollination assistant"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"2 Eorkers Gin manufacturin!H"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"2"1 +n%ustrial robots""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"6 Eorkers Gin retail:service in%ustryH """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"6"1 /ur!er maker """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B 2"4 Humanoi% robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D 2"5 Personal assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D 2"5"1 8ranslators """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D 2"5"2 Ealkin! 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of creativity """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"F"1"1 3reative artists& #riters an% entertainers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"F"1"2 .Aercise an% fitness trainers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"F"1"6 +nterior %esi!ners""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"F"1"4 Lo!a teachers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"F"1"5 Spiritual !urus """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"F"1"> Psycholo!ists an% social #orkers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"10 8he challen!e for unskille% youth""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"11 .ffect on #a!es"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4 6"11"1 4act2 5elative share of #a!es in @DP %ecline""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B5 6"11"2 Hypothesis2 =ot technolo!y but !lobalisation""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B> 6"11"6 Hypothesis2 Permanently re%uce% #a!es"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B> v 6"11"4 Hypothesis2 #a!es may not fall"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B> 6"12 .ffect on employment""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B> 6"12"1 8he less e%ucate% have less of a chance of fin%in! jobs no#"""""B> 6"12"2 Co#er labour participation"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BB 6"12"6 .mployment may not fall in the lon! run"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BB 6"12"6"1 8here coul% be short run pain""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BD 6"12"6"2 Hours #orke% by everyone may fall"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BD 6"16 +ncrease% ine0uality"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BD 6"16"1 Me%ian income barely !ro#in! """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BF 6"16"1"1 KS* """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" BF 6"16"1"1 *ustralia""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" D0 6"16"2 Divi%e bet#een rich an% poor rapi%ly !ro#in!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D0 6"16"6 Share of corporate profits risin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D1 6"14 .ffect on asset values""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D1 6"15 5out of the mi%%le class""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D1 6"1> .%ucation is the 4'K=D*8+'= of robotics:+8 revolution"""""""""""""""""""""D1 6"1B 5e%uce% traffic con!estion""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D2 6"1D 3han!in! !overnment services"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D2 4" Social Gan% political:le!alH conse0uences """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4 4"1 Eill liberate #omen"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4 4"2 .thics of robotics"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4 4"2"1 +saac *simovNs O8hree Ca#s of 5oboticsO"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4 4"2"2 Eill robots take over the #orl%;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4 4"2"6 Humans shoul%n$t be %oin! such jobs any#ay""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4 4"6 5e!ulatory impact: re!ulation of robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D5 4"6"1 Privacy issues """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D5 4"6"2 8he %issolution of the nation state""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D5 4"4 =ee% for appropriate market mechanisms& business mo%els an% re!ulatory policy""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" D5 4"5 8he problems of the unemploye%""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D> 4"5"1 Meanin!lessness""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D> 4"5"2 Mass leisure""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D> 4"5"6 =e!ative effects of eApectorations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D> 5" .ffect on nations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB 5"1 Develope% nations"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB 5"1"1 .ffect of robotics on KS*""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB 5"1"2 .ffect of robotics on *ustralia"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB 5"2 Developin! nations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD 5"2"1 .ffect of robotics on 3hina""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD 5"2"2 .ffect of robotics on +n%ia """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD 5"2"2"1 +n%ia has misse% the boat""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD 5"2"2"2 +n%ia has virtually no chance of bein! a manufacturin! nation no#"""""""""""""""""""""DD 5"2"2"6 +n%ia is !oin! to continue to lose top +8 talent to the Eest"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD 5"2"2"1 5obotics research in +n%ia """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DF >" .conomics of eAtreme lon!evity Geven some form of immortalityH """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F0 >"1 Pensions"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" F0 >"2 4urther rea%in! on the biolo!y:economics of immortality"""""""""""""""""""""""F1 B" Shoul% #e be concerne%; Shoul% the !overnment %o anythin!;F2 B"1 * ne# e0uilibrium #ill soon emer!e"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2 vi Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com B"2 Some !oo% policies"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2 B"2"1 @reater competition an% re!ulatory reform"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2 B"2"2 *ttract innovators:talent from across the #orl%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2 B"2"2"1 8he eAo%us of talent from Silicon 7alley""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2 B"2"2"1 =ee% for talent1frien%ly policies""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6 B"2"6 +f you %o nee% to spen% on innovation& spen% on robotics:*+:nanotechnolo!y""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6 B"2"4 5etrainin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" F6 B"6 /a% policies """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" F6 B"6"1 Pro!ressive taAation"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6 B"6"2 5e%istribution """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6 B"6"2"1 3itiIen$s income"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6 D" 5eferences""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4 D"1 Jey blo!s on robotics""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4 D"2 .conomics of a robotic economy"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4 D"6 Science of robotics""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4 D"4 .thics of robotics"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""FB vii 1" 4rom aroun% 2000 *D2 the .arly 5obotic *!e %obert &olo!, !ho !on the $obel 'rize in 1()* for his macroeconomic research on economic gro!th, inclding on the role of technology, says that +advances in technology al!ays thro! people ot of !ork,, bt that +the economic history so far is that aggregate employment-and employment at rising !ages-has not sffered., .&orce/ 01an is the lo!est2cost, 1"#2pond, nonlinear, all2prpose compter system !hich can be mass2prodced by nskilled labor0 $A&A 31(4"5. 8he #ritin! is on the #all" 8he #orl% is chan!in! very rapi%ly an% #e nee% to start thinkin! about it& partiucalarly from the economic policy perspective" +t #as not just a transformation of technolo!y from huntin!1!atherin! to a!riculture that le% to civilisation" 8he transformation ha% to be supporte% by a fe# key factors2 aH a crop sufficiently stur%y to be store% for years Ge"!" #heat:riceHP bH %omestic animals that provi%e% both protein an% animal horsepo#erP an% cH sufficient surplus in foo% pro%uction to allo# enou!h creative humans to think of innovative #ays to %o thin!s Gsuch as smelt metalH" 8he a!ricultural revolution provi%e% a 35.*8+7. D+7+D.=D throu!h the surplus so pro%uce% (see2 ?are% Diamon%$s @uns& @erms an% Steel)" Eith the in%ustrial a!e #e no# nee% only 2 per cent of humankin% to ten% to a!riculture" 8he remainin! FD per cent %o other creative thin!s" Eith the robotic a!e& #e #ill nee% less than 0"1 per cent of humankin% to pro%uce foo%" *ll others& FF"F per cent& #ill be able to en!a!e in creative #ork" 8hat is #hy the 5obot *!e #ill be the a!e of @lorious 3reativity" +t #ill also be the a!e #here stupi% nations like +n%ia& %etermine% to pro%uce roa%s by han%& %etermine% not to let !o their small1villa!e a!ricultural herita!e& #ill become 7*S8CL P''5.5 compare% to those Glike 3hinaH #ho a%opt the 5obotic 5evolution" M M M ?ulian Simon al#ays sai% that the Human /rain is the Kltimate 5esource" *n% he #as ri!ht" +Nve spent some time over the past #eek in analysis of the issues involve% in the 5obotic *!e an% althou!h + havenNt articulate% my conclusions in any %etaile% form yet& an% +Nm still rea%in! an% thinkin!& +Nm no# ER! confi%ent that there is ='8H+=@ 8' /. 3'=3.5=.D */'K8 Gabout the 5obotic *!eH for those nations "hich follo" high #uality governance and economic policies. G8his& of course& rules out a !oo% future for nations like +n%ia #ith socialist policiesH" Stron! a%justments are at #ork in the #orl% to%ay" The $E! shift is to"ards t"o main industries% &T and creative. +n the rush to blame robots an% +8 for loss of jobs& people are for!ettin! that the rich are beginning to pay significant amounts of money for NsoftN eApertise #hich improves their <K*C+8L of life" 8his inclu%es personal fitness coaches& personal life coaches& yo!a teachers& an% spiritual a%visers"8he arts are also flourishin!" More museums& more pro%uction of art" More music& more sports" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ' + believe that 4'5 8H'S. 3'K=85+.S #hich follo# !oo% !overnance an% competitive policies& there lies an era of SKP.515+3H.S ahea%" 8here #ill likely be some further increase in ine0uality but letNs not for!et that ine0uality is =.7.5 an issue" 8he key issue is human flourishin!" *n% that seems !uarantee% Q for those nations #hich keep their economies fit& lean an% a!ile" A flourishing creative class "ill ta(e the )mid*tier) +obs earlier ta(en by the non* creative boring cler(s and managers. ,ilbert is dead. Eithin each clerk is a sin!er: #riter: poet or artist" +t is time to #ake up your creative inner bein!" 'r you can choose to be a ner%" /oth ner%s an% creative people #ill earn #ell" 8hose #ho are neither ner%s nor creative #ill be come S.57*=8S of the rich" =othin! #ron! #ith that" /y servants + mean the service in%ustry Q #aiters: nurses: a!e% care #orkers: !ar%eners:hair%ressers& etc" ,oes the government have to do anything- + firmly oppose the i%eas of socialists like Paul Jru!man #ho are tryin! to increase socialist policies an% further %estroy KS* in the !uise of solvin! the NunemploymentN problem arisin! from the 5obotic *!e" Such people shoul%& instea%& ask the youn! to re1skill themselves Q an% spen% more effort in the creative fiel%s" 5emember& lo# en% jobs are still lucrative in terms of purchasin! po#er& as 0uality of pro%ucts increases an% prices fall (Peter Schiff) 8his book is a #arnin! to anyone #ho #ants !overnment bureaucrats an% politicians to me%%le #ith the ne# economy" *=L K==.3.SS*5L M.DDC+=@ #ill lea% to seriously harmful conse0uences" Cet the market #ork out #hich kin%s of jobs it #ants an% re#ar%" 8his is kno#n as creative %estruction Gor #hat + call in /4= Gonline notesH& creative replacement" Peter Schiff$s vie#2 aH http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR'*<vkB#I*u4 8his is short an% crisp summary of key issues relate% #ith robotics" 5obotics is ='8 fun%amentally %ifferent to any other technolo!ical chan!e of the past" Ehat it #ill %o is prompt a ra%ical shift to#ar%s more useful:creative #ork" 8here #ill =.7.5 be a time #hen creative Gpai%H #ork comes to an en%" +f nothin! else& people #ill pay to #atch !oo% computer !ame players 1 as they %o in S"Jorea" bH *lso here2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR44yIn1 y33JDUtR2F0 +n my vie# the !reatest problem to the ne# economy #ill be re%istributive policies of the !overnment #hich prevent rea%justment of people to creative or service1oriente% jobs" So let$s be!in our analysis of these assertions by startin! out #ith a classic 5obinson 3aruso eAample" Mr" 3aruso is alone on his islan% an% he must pro%uce everythin! necessary for his survival an% comfort by himself" Mr" 3aruso must fish for foo%& buil% a house& procure #ater for %rinkin! an% cookin!& farm a fiel% for crops& #eave his o#n clothin!& etc"" etc"" Ehat #oul% happen if one %ay a plane fle# over his islan% an% parachute% him a fishin! robot; 8he robot coul% fish for him& procurin! fish 24 hours a %ay B %ays a #eek" Does anyone think Mr" 3aruso #oul% be upset by this; Eoul%n$t the robot free him to focus on all the other tasks that are necessary for his survival; Ehat if #e no# !ave Mr" 3aruso an entire army of robots capable of fishin!& #eavin!& buil%in!& etc"" etc"" Eoul% this leave Mr" 3aruso #ithout anythin! to %o; 'f . course not" Mr" 3aruso coul% no# focus on even further improvements to his con%ition& beyon% #hat the robots are alrea%y provi%in! him #ith" He mi!ht #ork on creatin! an air con%itionin! system& or art for the #alls of his home& or solvin! some other problem that the robots have not yet been pro!ramme% to solve" =ot until every sin!le problem facin! humanity as a #hole has been solve% #oul% Mr" 3aruso be left #ithout somethin! pro%uctive to %o" /ecause robots are not capable of comin! up #ith novel solutions to human problems& an% because human problems are virtually limitless& humans #ill al#ays have somethin! pro%uctive they coul% be %oin!" 5obots #ill never be able to replace the creativity of the human min%& #hich re0uires a consciousness not present in any machine" (Source) '.'.' Autonomous economy ,E" /rian *rthur& a visitin! researcher at the VeroA Palo *lto 5esearch 3enter$s intelli!ence systems lab an% a former economics professor at Stanfor% Kniversity& calls it the ,autonomous economy"- (Source) 1"2 7i%eo intro%uction to the issues 5affaello DN*n%rea2 8he astoun%in! athletic po#er of 0ua%copters" 5obert Hanson an% Martin 4or% .rik /rynjolfsson *n%re# Mc*ffee + ten% to si%e broa%ly #ith Hanson an% Peter Schiff" 1"6 *!ricultural a!e as a major %iscontinuity from the huntin! !atherin! a!e 8his innovation allo#e% mankin% to si!nificantly increase in population an% kno#le%!e" /ut this #as nothin! compare% #ith the %iscontinuity #hich came #ith the in%ustrial a!e in aroun% 1B50 *D" 4rom about 2000 *D& another si!nificant %iscontinuity has occurre% #ith robotics an% *+& allo#in! further si!nificant increases in pro%uctivity" * schematic %ia!ram is provi%e% belo# to illustrate the concept" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com / './.'.' The Artilect Age 8here is a vie# that the neAt sta!e after robotics is artilects in #hich robots become millions of times more intelli!ent than humans& lea%in! to the ,*rtilect Ear- G,artificial intellect-H" 8his vie#& by Hu!o %e @aris& is eAtremely controversial" His i%ea is that just like #e slap mos0uitoes& the artilects mi!ht 9slap$ us if #e become a pest" + %isa!ree fun%amentally #ith this concept" *rtilects can$t be 9risky$ to mankin% since they %o not have a M'8+7*8+'= GemotionalH to become better off" 8hey %o not have a 9soul$& either" 8hey #ill therefore al#ays remain as our %utiful servants" 8he key to success is a%aptability& an% it very unlikely that *+:artilects #ill have sufficient a%aptability" 8he richness an% %iversity of human motivation entirely %istin!uishes us from robots:artilets" +f any harm is cause%& it #ill be throu!h a human bein! #ho misuses the artilects for personal !ain" 1"4 *re there any 9har% limits$ on a%vances in robotics:*+; '.0.' 1ard"are limits '.0.'.' 2ilicon computer have limits /y 2020 intelli!ence #ill be every#here Gubi0uitous computin!H& embe%%e% in everythin!" 5obotics is base% on the S+C+3'= chip" +t is limite% by Moore$s la# an% the la#s of thermo%ynamics" ,Moore$s Ca# states that the number of transistors on a chip %oubles every 1D months" 8his tren% has been vali% for over 40 years an% is likely to continue until aroun% 2020& by #hich time #e #ill be able to place one bit of information on a sin!le atom" 8hese atom1bits #ill be able to s#itch their state Ga 0 or a 1H in femtosecon%s& #hich are 0ua%rillionths G1015H times of a secon%" 8here are a trillion& trillion G1024H atoms in a han%hel% object& such as an apple& so potentially& the information processin! capacity of such an object #oul% be about 1040 bits per secon%" 3ompare this number #ith the estimate% e0uivalent of the human brain& #hich is about 101> bits per secon%& or a trillion& trillion times smaller"- (Source)" 8here is a possibility that silicon computers #ill start facin! constraints in the neAt fe# years" '.0.'.' 3olecular computers 8he neAt sta!e is molecular computers" http2::###"kurI#eilai"net:another1breakthrou!h1in1replacin!1silicon1in1transistors '.0.'.. 4uantum computers "ill brea(through to an unbelievable level 8his involves manipulatin! bits at the atomic level" Ho#ever& !iven 0uantum physics& even a sin!le particle of san% can be a million trillion times more po#erfully than the human brain" (Hu!o %e @aris& http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRl.a*i%3mAus& at the 415 minutes mark)" <uantum 3omputers *nimate%2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR82DVrs0'pHK ,Stanfor% Kniversity announce% that scientists there ha% mana!e% to enco%e the letters ,S- an% ,K- #ithin the interference patterns of 0uantum electron #aves" +n other #or%s& they #ere able to enco%e %i!ital information #ithin particles smaller than atoms"- (Source) 0 '.0.'.' Nanocomputers =anotechnolo!y is molecular scale en!ineerin!" +t is the continuin! a%vance of silicon an% 0uantum computin! that #ill lea% to nano1computers& that are so small they operate at the molecular level" ,Henri Markram$s #ork in S#itIerlan%& every neural connection is kno#n in a sin!le cortical column of a rat brain$s corteA" G* rat has about a thousan% such columns& each consistin! of about 10&000 hi!hly interconnecte% neurons& an% the human brain contains about a million"H- (Source) '.0.. 2oft"are limits '.0...' Artificial intelligence Les& there seems to be no possibility for the creation of a computer as smart an% creative as a human Gan% #ith consciousnessH" Ehile computers #ill %efinitely become ten billion times smarter than us #ithin 60150 years& it remains a moot 0uestion #hen theyNll start buil%in! smarter computers on their o#n" + suspect theyNll al#ays nee% human N!ui%anceN till #e finally un%erstan% the un%erlyin! 0ualities of the human brain: consciousness" /ut this sta!e shoul% not be rule%" +f it %oes occur& then humans #ill be 0uickly over1sha%o#e% by machines" /ut + %on$t #ish to !o there Q for this is a book about robotic economics not about science fiction" 3omputational po#er %oes not necessarily e0uate to computational intelli!ence" * computer mi!ht be able to calculate 1W2 in a nano secon% but that %oesnNt necessarily means it un%erstan%s #hat 1W2 means or #hy it is %oin! it" *nyone #ho has actually #orke% #ith any form of *+ #ill tell you that most intelli!ence #e %esi!n ri!ht no# #orks throu!h brute force GmostlyH" 3reativity is a bit more compleA& it is takin! seemin!ly unrelate% concepts t#o create ne# concepts& this is more complicate%" Ee are tryin! to !et aroun% this by mo%ellin! the human brain in virtual space" * lot of manufacturin! jobs coul% be taken over& but service jobs #ill be maintaine% as humans for the foreseeable future" (3omment2 Source) +t #oul% appear that robotics #ill nee% to break the creativity barrier before humans become really useless as #orkers" 8o #atch2 *rtificial intelli!ence sin!ularity Gby JurI#eilH 8he Sin!ularity +s =ear Michio Jaku on 8he Sin!ularity S+=@KC*5+8L (2016) 5ise of the Machines #ith 5ay JurI#eil an% Stephen Ha#kin! Paul 5oot Eolpe %isa!rees Gvi%eoH" Society is too compleA" 8hin!s are al#ays much more compleA than #hat #e think they are" 4irst the !enomes& then the proteins& no# epi!enetics& an% so on" Ee still aren$t !ettin! the benefits of the !enome project since thin!s like D=*:the brain are far more compleA than #e thou!ht they #ere" 8his can be calle% the 9compleAity fallout$" Sin!ularity si!nificantly simplifies the compleAity of biolo!y" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5 Diaman%is pre%icts that artificial intelli!ence G*+H similar to iPhone$s Siri #ill be responsible for takin! jobs from humans in the near future" ,*+ can to%ay %o most of the thin!s that humans can %o& they can think better than humans& they can translate an% un%erstan% D5 lan!ua!es an% they can rea% an% #rite so it is pre%icte% that they #ill take 50 per cent of human$s jobs in 10 years&- sai% Diaman%is" (Source) '.0...' 6b+ect recognition 8his is the sta!e #hen computers can reco!nise !eneric objects Ge"!" a cupH" 8aken further& this inclues facial reco!nition" https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR0o6Phr5DiBM '.0.... 3achine learning +n this computers learn on their o#n '.0.../ Rat 7rain simulation ,8o%ay& thanks to Henri Markram$s #ork in S#itIerlan%& every neural connection is kno#n in a sin!le cortical column of a rat brain$s corteA" G* rat has about a thousan% such columns& each consistin! of about 10&000 hi!hly interconnecte% neurons& an% the human brain contains about a million"H 8his %etaile% connectivity kno#le%!e has been put into supercomputers& so that computer1savvy neuroscientists can perform eAperiments in a computer& that is& con%uct ,e1neuroscience"- So a supercomputer #ill be able to perform the same functions as a rat$s cortical column& but a million times fasterQat electronic spee%s compare% to the rat$s chemical spee%s" 4ollo#in! Moore$s Ca#& the #hole rat brain #ill be thus simulate% #ithin a %eca%e& an% the human brain a %eca%e or t#o later"- (Source) '.0...0 1uman 7rain 8ro+ect ,8he Human /rain Project GH/PH is a research project #hich aims to simulate the human brain #ith supercomputers to better un%erstan% ho# it functions" 8he en% hopes of the H/P inclu%e bein! able to mimic the human brain usin! computers an% bein! able to better %ia!nose %ifferent brain problems"- (Source) '.0...5 4uantum computer programming Pro!rammin! 0uantum computers are particularly har% to pro!ram2 http2::!iImo%o"com:#hy1pro!rammin!1a10uantum1computer1is1so1%amn1har%1 11DD61>0D> 1"5 8hree key scenarios Sin!ularity %iscussions seem to be splittin! up into three major schools of thou!ht2 *cceleratin! 3han!e& the .vent HoriIon& an% the +ntelli!ence .Aplosion" Accelerating Change% o 6ore claim7 'ur intuitions about chan!e are linearP #e eApect rou!hly as much chan!e as has occurre% in the past over our o#n lifetimes" /ut technolo!ical chan!e fee%s on itself& an% therefore accelerates" 3han!e to%ay is faster than it #as 500 years a!o& #hich in turn is 9 faster than it #as 5000 years a!o" 'ur recent past is not a reliable !ui%e to ho# much chan!e #e shoul% eApect in the future" o &trong claim7 8echnolo!ical chan!e follo#s smooth curves& typically eAponential" 8herefore #e can pre%ict #ith fair precision #hen ne# technolo!ies #ill arrive& an% #hen they #ill cross key threshol%s& like the creation of *rtificial +ntelli!ence" o Advocates7 5ay JurI#eil& *lvin 8offlerG;H& ?ohn Smart Event 1ori:on% o 6ore claim7 4or the last hun%re% thousan% years& humans have been the smartest intelli!ences on the planet" *ll our social an% technolo!ical pro!ress #as pro%uce% by human brains" Shortly& technolo!y #ill a%vance to the point of improvin! on human intelli!ence Gbrain1computer interfaces& *rtificial +ntelli!enceH" 8his #ill create a future that is #eir%er by far than most science fiction& a %ifference1in1kin% that !oes beyon% amaIin! shiny !a%!ets" o &trong claim7 8o kno# #hat a superhuman intelli!ence #oul% %o& you #oul% have to be at least that smart yourself" 8o kno# #here Deep /lue #oul% play in a chess !ame& you must play at Deep /lue$s level" 8hus the future after the creation of smarter1than1human intelli!ence is absolutely unpre%ictable" o Advocates7 7ernor 7in!e &ntelligence Explosion% o 6ore claim7 +ntelli!ence has al#ays been the source of technolo!y" +f technolo!y can significantly improve on human intelli!ence Q create min%s smarter than the smartest eAistin! humans Q then this closes the loop an% creates a positive fee%back cycle" Ehat #oul% humans #ith brain1computer interfaces %o #ith their au!mente% intelli!ence; 'ne !oo% bet is that they$% %esi!n the neAt !eneration of brain1 computer interfaces" +ntelli!ence enhancement is a classic tippin! pointP the smarter you !et& the more intelli!ence you can apply to makin! yourself even smarter" o &trong claim7 8his positive fee%back cycle !oes 4''M& like a chain of nuclear fissions !one critical Q each intelli!ence improvement tri!!erin! an avera!e ofX1"000 further improvements of similar ma!nitu%e Q thou!h not necessarily on a smooth eAponential path#ay" 8echnolo!ical pro!ress %rops into the characteristic timescale of transistors Gor super1transistorsH rather than human neurons" 8he ascent rapi%ly sur!es up#ar% an% creates sperintelligenceGmin%s or%ers of ma!nitu%e more po#erful than humanH before it hits physical limits" o Advocates7 +" ?" @oo%& .lieIer Lu%ko#sky '.5.'.' &.;. Good<s &ntelligence explosion concept 8his is also kno# as Nhar% takeoffN or N*+1!o14''MN" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com = +" ?" @oo%$s thesis of the ,intelli!ence eAplosion- states that a sufficiently a%vance% machine intelli!ence coul% buil% a smarter version of itself& #hich coul% in turn buil% an even smarter version& an% that this process coul% continue to the point of vastly eAcee%in! human intelli!ence" (Source2 http2::intelli!ence"or!:files:+.M"p%f) ,+" ?" @oo% #as the one #ho su!!este% the notion of an ,intelli!ence eAplosion- %ue to the positive fee%back of a smart min% makin! itself even smarter" =umerous other *+ researchers believe somethin! similar- (Source) 8his is oppose% by a vie# G,@eneral +ntelli!ence 8heorem- Y la @re! .!anH #hich says that nothin! 0ualitatively smarter than a human can eAist"- (Source)" 1"> Con! term structural chan!e in *ustralia Source 8he lon! term effects of the in%ustrial revolution on *ustralia" + believe Gthis i%ea has to be teste%H that in the 5obotic *!e employment in manufacturin! #ill collapse to aroun% 2 per cent& in a!riculture to aroun% 0"2 per cent& an% minin! to 0"2 per cent" Services is #here employment #ill nee% to come from" 8he minin! sector in *ustralia is a classic eAample of ho# output is increasin! #ith fe#er employees" 8his tren% is no# si!nificantly spee%in! up" > Ehich services are !ro#in!& #hich are fallin! in *ustralia Glon! term tren%sH2 Source So& #hat #ill happen in the 5obotic *!e; + believe Gthis is to be teste% an% further consi%ere%H that Personal Services #ill likely skyrocket Gpersonal trainers& house keepers& !ar%eners& personal life coaches& yo!a teachers& etc"HP 3onstruction an% %istribution an% utilities services #ill shrink %ramatically as robots take over much of the #ork& Social services #ill shrink as e%ucation:health becomes robotise%" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ? 1"B +n%ustrial machines supplemente% muscle" 5obots supplement our senses an% brains =e# terms are bein! coine% to reflect our speculations about the ne# a!e that is %a#nin! upon us as #e speak" ,li!hts out- in%icates that robotic factories can #ork #ithout li!htsP ,%i!ital %ivi%e- refers to the !ap bet#een those #ho have %i!ital mastery an% those #ho %on$tP ,en% of #ork- represents a vie# that there #ill be no more #ork left after robots 9take over$ all the #ork in this #orl%" Ehether #e like it or not& #e are no# in a ne# epoch" *%am Smith #oul% fin% many similarities to his a!e but there are key %ifferences he #oul% take some time to un%erstan%" 3omputers:robots are no# not just !ettin! cheaper& they are !ettin! more capable" 8hat capability is the key to the robotic a!e" Pro%uctivity is increasin! %ramatically even as jobs are fallin! rapi%ly" Much of this is a continuation of the same tren% that starte% in 1B50" /ut there is somethin! ne# about this" 8he key is that machines no# sense the environment an% respon% to it %ynamically" 8hey are not static any lon!er" 1"D 8he 9comin! of a!e$ of robots Ehile most humanoi% robots are not very useful yet& many other robots are commercially viable" 3omputation has become cheaper GMoore$s la#H" 3amera prices have fallen %ramatically Ginitially Z50&000H Q %ue to consumer revolution" 3omputer vision has increase%" Soft#are has improve%" 8he usability threshol% has been crosse%" 5eal robots have real users" .arly forms of robots have been #ith us since aroun% 1F>0& but perhaps 2000 rou!hly marks the onset of the .arly 5obotic *!e" Please spen% 15 minutes on this talk by *n%re# Mc*fee& co1author of 5ace *!ainst the Machine" + am optimistic alon! #ith him about the future but there are very si!nificant issues that nee% to be articulate% an% un%erstoo%& an% many policy concepts clarifie%" '.>.' @hat are robots- * machine #as bra#n an% muscle" +t multiplie% the po#er of our muscles" +t coul% not& ho#ever& ,see- or other#ise i%entify objects" 5obots can ,see- an% %istin!uish bet#een objects in a non1mechanical #ay" 8hey rely on some form of %i!ital 9perception$ or intelli!ence" 8he sortin! machine in a post office is therefore a GprimitiveH robot" 8he *8M machine is similarly a robot" 8he automatic check1in machine Gfor ticket:lu!!a!eH at the airport is a robot" 8he self1checkout at the supermarket is a robot" * smelter at a steel plant is not a robot" 8he reporter& Steve Jroft& %iscusse% a ne# %efinition of robots an% robotics in sharp 'A %isa!reement from the %efinitions pose% by the +nternational 4e%eration of 5obots2 Steve Jroft sai%& O8he broa% universal %efinition is a machine that can perform the job of a human" 8he machine can be mobile or stationary& har%#are or soft#are"O 8his is %ifferent than the robotic industry)s most recent tentative definition of service robots #hich& in short& says the follo#in!2 * robot is an actuate% mechanism programmable in t"o or more axes "ith a degree of autonomy& movin! #ithin its environment& to perform inten%e% tasks" *utonomy in this conteAt means the ability to perform inten%e% tasks base% on current state an% sensin!& #ithout human intervention" * robot has to have at least t#o %e!rees of free%om plus autonomy" 5'/'8 * fully autonous car G2 %e!rees of free%om GDo4HP steerin! an% transmissionH #oul% 0ualify for a mobile robot as #oul% 6D printers" ='8 5'/'8 /ut a #ashin! machine G1 aAisP 1 Do4H& airline or other kiosk& or a%aptive cruise control Gall #hich coul% be consi%ere% as 1 Do4H #oul% not fall un%er the cate!ory of robots" (Source) '.>.. 3aturation of many related technolgies *lthou!h the 5obotic *!e primarily refers to robots& it is shorthan% for the &T*based revolution that is no# comin! of a!e in a lar!e number of relate% %isciplines" * C*5@. number of technolo!ies are no# S+MKC8*=.'KSCL M*8K5+=@" 8his is a very eAcitin! time in human history" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '' '.>...' Genome mapping 4or those not yet convince% that M*SS+7. 8.3H='C'@+3*C 3H*=@. is un%er#ay Gan% yes& robotics is no# !oin! to have 5.*C effects on the economyH& this is an eAample of the spee% of pro!ress" Human !enome costs have fallen from Z100 million per !enome to less than ZBJ per !enome" Ghttp2::###"!enome"!ov:se0uencin!costs:H" +n just 11 years" '.>.... /*, printing 61D printin! is a key part of the robotics a!e& since it allo#s pro%uction of entire !oo%s #ithout any %irect human intervention" https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRveHK0[S%b=. '.>.../ 7iological computers 8hese are no# able to store %ata an% also perform calculations2 Stora!e2 ,the research team store% five files \ totalin! about B50 kilobytes of %ata \ as D=*2 all 154 of Shakespeare$s sonnets Ga teAt fileH& Eatson an% 3rick$s classic 1F56 paper %escribin! the structure of D=* Ga PD4H& a color photo!raph Ga ?P.@H an% a 2>1secon% eAcerpt from Martin Cuther Jin!$s 1F>6 ,+ Have a Dream- speech Gan MP6H" (Source) http2::me%"stanfor%"e%u:ism:2016:march:bil1!ates"html '.>...0 Neural net"or(s '.>...5 Recreation of detailed map of the brain 4irst the human !enome #as create%" =o# the full map an% repro%uction of the brain is un%er#ay" http2::###"te%"com:talks:henrySmarkramSsupercomputin!StheSbrainSsSsecrets"html '. '.>...' Busion Proven prototypes of fusion Gi"e" en%less ener!yH are no# not more than 20 years a#ay" 8he technolo!y is no# FF per cent there" 4inal t#eaks an% a prototype are left" .Apect fusion in 10 years maA" '.>...' NanotechnologyCnanorobots =anorobots are *C5.*DL there 1 but nee% a little bit more shrinka!e" GCike #e use% bullocks to carry our stuff& #e no# use bacteria to propel these robotsH" 8his is a most fascinatin! vi%eo2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR<nnb.sLF6V4 1"F Ehat can robots %o; 5obots can no# %o most thin!s that humans can& even if not al#ays very #ell" /ut some thin!s they can %o many times better than humans can" .Aamples are outline% belo#" Do see some of the linke% vi%eos" '.?.' 8hysical '.?.'.' .*legged robots can "al( in the midst of people and on rough surfaces *S+M' 20112 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRIulD*3j[+1D *lso& *tlas the Penta!on robot" '.?.'.. 0*legged robots can run faster than humans 8his robot G3heetahH runs at 2F miles per hour" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '/ '.?.'./ 0*legged robots can carry loads and "al( faster uphill than humans 5obotic %onkey GD*5P* 1 *lphaDo! Ce!!e% S0ua% Support System GCS6HH http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR!'kV5V[+4As Donkey that thro#s objects2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR2jvCalL>ubc (/i!Do! han%les heavy objects" 8he !oal is to use the stren!th of the le!s an% torso to help po#er motions of the arm" 8his sort of %ynamic& #hole1bo%y approach to manipulation is use% routinely by human athletes an% #ill enhance the performance of a%vance% robots" /oston Dynamics is %evelopin! the control an% actuation techni0ues nee%e% for %ynamic manipulation" 8he cin%erblock #ei!hs about 65 lbs an% the best thro# is a bit more than 1B ft" 8he research is fun%e% by the *rmy 5esearch CaboratoryNs 538* pro!ram") '.?.'.0 Extreme athleticism in runningCflying Seein! is believin!" 5affaello DN*n%rea2 8he astoun%in! athletic po#er of 0ua%copters" '.?.'.5 Can +ump /A feet http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR>b4[[<kc=.o '.?.'.' Can fight and D(ill< other robots http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRE6!.oJ44Va< '.?.'.' Can dance Cplay games 5obots no# %ance& an% play soccer an% pin! pon!" 3hina is a%vancin! rapi%ly in robotics" ."!" table tennis2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRtS0=6%!L@0. Dancin! robots2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR4t1=EH>@1f0 4encin!2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch; featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvRkJJ<<KM/0ts '.?.. ,exterity '.?...' Can bounce balls and catch ob+ects "ith fingers http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRHS15152i0@4 '.?.... 1ave extremely fine Dhand*eye< coordination Kniversal robots are no# able to perform eAtremely fine 9han%1eye$ coor%ination tasks #ith very little trainin!" '.?...' Can drive trains 5obotics an% +8 have replace% thousan%s of train %rivers across the #orl%" * full list of %riverless trains2 http2::en"#ikipe%ia"or!:#iki:CistSofS%riverlessStrainsU*sia '.?.... Can drive cars and truc(s and fly planes @oo!le has an unmanne%:%riverless car:s an% 465 is the last manne% fi!hter jet" http2::###"economist"com:no%e:1DF5D4DB Hal 7arian says2 ,5ich people have chauffeurs& but + think that in 10 years #e #ill all have chauffeurs Q robotic chauffeurs Q because the technolo!y has a%vance% to the point #here it is absolutely real1#orl% stuff"- (Source) '0 O8he cab came floatin! %o#n out of the sky at the intersection an% maneuvere% itself to rest at the curb neAt to them #ith a finicky precision" 8here #as& of course& nobo%y in itP like everythin! else in the #orl% re0uirin! an +"<" of less than 150& it #as computer1controlle%"O (?ames /lish$s * Cife for the Stars G1F>2H)"(Source) Eell& this time is no# arrivin! 7.5L 4*S8" EhatNs to be %one #ith those #ho canNt %esi!n thin!s; '.?...' Can fly helicopeter upside do"n http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR*L4ajbuS@6k Gthat #as 2011H" '.?./ erbal '.?./.' Can tal( * talkin! robot #as launche% into space in *u!ust 2016" Eatch the short movie" *lso see the //3 report2 http2::###"bbc"co"uk:ne#s:#orl%1asia1265>5121 '.?./.. Can sing Sin!in! robot2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRmfAkhI@0[+s '.?.0 Creative '.?.0.' Can s(etch and ma(e oil paintings Ee,avidF http2::###"informatik"uni1konstanI"%e:en:e%avi%:vi%eos: '.?.0.' Can ma(e music EbandsF Sin!in! robot2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRmfAkhI@0[+s 5obot music ban%2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR65/Sk01SStD '.?.' Cognitive computing ,researchers there are alrea%y testin! ne# !enerations of Eatson in me%icine& #here the technolo!y coul% help physicians %ia!nose %iseases like cancer& evaluate patients& an% prescribe treatments" ,+/M likes to call it co!nitive computin!" .ssentially& Eatson uses artificial1 ]intelli!ence techni0ues& a%vance% natural1lan!ua!e processin! an% analytics& an% massive amounts of %ata %ra#n from sources specific to a !iven application Gin the case of health care& that means me%ical journals& teAtbooks& an% information collecte% from the physicians or hospitals usin! the systemH" 8hanks to these Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '5 innovative techni0ues an% hu!e amounts of computin! po#er& it can 0uickly come up #ith ,a%vice-\for eAample& the most recent an% relevant information to !ui%e a %octor$s %ia!nosis an% treatment %ecisions"- (Source) 1"10 Major si!ns that the robotic a!e is upon us '.'A.' 2ignificant acceleration in capability '.'A.'.' Already "e have a computer e#ual to human brain in processing po"er +n 2012& the first computer that crosse% the human brainNs processin! capacity G1> petaflopsH #as built" '.'A.'.' 8redictions + a!ree broa%ly #ith JurI#eil$s har%#are pre%ictions2 by 201F even a Z1&000 computer #ill match the processin! po#er of the human brain" 1
#ithin 20 years the fastest computer #ill be thousan%s of times OsmarterO than humans by 2055 a Z1&000 computer #ill match the processin! po#er of *CC human brains on .arth" 'n the soft#are si%e& *+ is almost en%less in its pro!ress& accor%in! to JurI#eil" /ill @ates %oesn$t a!ree #ith JurI#eil2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch; vRjmiDJEB![b. My tentative vie# is that at some point computers #ill %esi!n most future improvements as they become capable of self1learnin!" JurI#eil then combines these a%vances #ith those of biotechnolo!y an% nanotechnolo!y to su!!est immortality2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch; vR.tataC%0=v# '.'A.'.. 2ignificant acceleration Esecond half of the chessboardF 8he secon% half of the chessboar% is an eAcellent analo!y for the situation currently bein! eAperience% in the #orl% of robotics" 5obotics has no# become palpable" Ee are a#are of it" /ut this is not even the be!innin!" .Apect %ramatic chan!e every t#o years" 1
http2::en"#ikipe%ia"or!:#iki:8imelineSofStheSfutureSinSforecastsU*rtificialSintelli!enc eSan%Srobotics '9 '.'A.'./ 2ignificant acceleration in A& 8he key to the 5obotic *!e is the si!nificant rampin! up of artificial intelli!ence Gsoft#areH" '.'A.. The commercial case for robots 5obots are not just more po#erful& they are really cheap" '.'A...' ,ramatically falling robot prices *s a result in re%uction in key technolo!ies Ge"!" cameras: soft#are to analyse %ataH& ne# materials& robot prices have %roppe% massively over the past %eca%e" '.'A.... The rise of the multi*purpose robot 8his is a robot that %oesn$t nee% pro!rammin! an% can be locally traine%& like one trains a #orker" * summary2 http2::###"everythin!1robotic"com:2016:05:rethink1robotics1baAter1an%1 universal"html '.'A.../ 3any other advantages of robots ,a machine that never !oes on strike& never %eman%s a #a!e hike& %oesnNt ask for a bi!!er %ormitory an% is not too picky about the foo% in the canteen"- (Source) Tim2% OMy company %esi!ns an% buil%s custom automate% manufacturin! e0uipment& #ith many platforms utiliIin! various forms of Nrobots"N *ll this automation %oes accomplish many thin!s& #ith the !reatest !ains bein! repeatable an% repro%ucible process capability& hi!her 0uality& lo#er scrap rates& an% thus lo#er costs" +n the overall scheme& in factories #ith hi!h labor costs& automation is the name of the !ame for hi!h volume pro%uction" +n factories #ith lo# labor costs& semi1 automatic or totally manual labor is the economic solution" Pro%uct cost is tie% to overhea%& materials& labor an% e0uipment costs" 8he bottom line tren% is the manufacturin! factory is becomin! more an% more automate% an% hi!her1tech" +f people can manoeuvre smart phones an% the like& then + think the brain po#er is out there for the hi!h1tech factory #orker" Mankin% is evolvin!" 8he last 100 years sho#s the eAponential rate of our technolo!ical !ro#th"O (Source) '.'A./ Evidence of commercial deployment '.'A./.' 2i:e of robotics industry *bout Z25 billion turnover in 2011 (Source) Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '= '.'A./.. Number of @or(Cover claims reducing Dan!erous in%ustries are amon! the first to take up robotics" 8his is havin! an effect on physical #orkplace injuries #hich are no# rapi%ly re%ucin!" '.'A././ Number of robots increasing (Source) 8he +45 has pre%icte% that more than 1"5 million in%ustrial robots #ill be in operation #orl%#i%e in 2015" (Source) See the %ia!ram belo#" '> Source2 http2::###"motherjones"com:kevin1%rum:2012:04:chart1%ay1our1robot1 overlor%s1#ill1take1over1soon 8his %ia!ram is& of course& too simplistic& by comparin! apples an% oran!es" 8his %oesn$t tell us #hich type of robot is replacin! humans" *n% !iven some robots are effectively more efficient at specific tasks than humans& it %oesn$t tell us #hether the replacement robot is e0uivalent to more than one human" +n the en% #e #ill nee% %ata on ,human e0uivalents- if #e are to compare the t#o" '.'A./.0 3anufacturing is shifting bac( to the @est 3osts of manufacturin! in ?apan:3hina:7ietnam are increasin! rapi%ly" 8here are si!nificant issues #ith manufacturin! in non1Eestern nations" (8he follo#in! from 5o%ney /rooks 3hairman an% 38'& 5ethink 5obotics here) 5esponsive& short supply chains +nnovation close to manufacturin! Protection of intellectual property Pro%uctivity beats cheap labour *voi% hi!her transportation costs '.'A./.5 2uddenness of change ,machines coul% !o from performin! 25^ of jobs to B5^ #ithin four years-" (5ace *!ainst Machine)" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '? +ma!ine a chart resemblin! a topo!raphic cross section& #ith the tasks that are ,most human- formin! a human a%vanta!e curve on the hi!her !roun%" Here you fin% chores best %one by humans& like !ourmet cookin! or elite hair%ressin!" 8hen there is a ,shore- consistin! of tasks that humans an% machines are e0ually able to perform an%& beyon% them an ,ocean- of tasks best %one by machines" Ehen machines !et cheaper or smarter or both& the #ater level rises& as it #ere& an% the shore moves inlan%" 8his sea chan!e has t#o effects" 4irst& machines #ill substitute for humans by takin! over ne#ly ,floo%e%- tasks" Secon%& %oin! machine tasks better complements human tasks& raisin! the value of %oin! them #ell" +ma!ine that the ocean of machine tasks reache% a #i%e plateau" 8his #oul% happen if& for instance& machines #ere almost capable enou!h to take on a vast array of human jobs" +n this situation& a small a%%itional rise in sea level #oul% floo% that plateau an% push the shoreline so far inlan% that a hu!e number of important tasks formerly in the human realm #ere no# achievable #ith machines" (Source2 http2::hanson"!mu"e%u:+...Spectrum1>10D"p%f) 1"11 Eho$s %rivin! this rapi% chan!e; Ehile the .uropean Knion& ?apan& Jorea& an% the rest of the #orl% have ma%e si!nificant 5TD investments in robotics technolo!y& the K"S" investment& outsi%e unmanne% systems for %efense purposes& remains practically non1eAistent" (Source2 http2::###"us1robotics"us:reports:333^205eport"p%f) Ehy; *pparently ?apan has a fear of a!ein! an% also %on$t #ant to allo# immi!ration" 8herefore they #ant to buil% robots" =ote that in%ustrial robots are ma%e only in ?apan& Jorea an% .urope Gnot KS*H (Source) 3hina is a hu!e user of robots& but also has clear plans to move in this area2 O3hina$s 12th 51Lear Plan tar!ete% robotics as a !ro#th in%ustry necessary for 3hina$s %evelopment" +t eApects a compoun% !ro#th rate of 25^& sai% Ean! Eeimin!& %eputy %irector of the Ministry of +n%ustry an% +nformation 8echnolo!y" 8he ministry has set up incentives an% 5 !eo!raphical areas for 3hinese companies to %evelop Gan% improve the 0uality ofH their robot pro%ucts an% capabilities" 8he ambitious plan inclu%es a !oal of 60^ to be pro%uce% #ith home!ro#n technolo!ies& Ean! sai%" """ +n a%%ition to Shan!hai& /eijin!& @uan!Ihou an% 3hen!%u& authorities in Ciaonin! province are constructin! a robot in%ustrial compleA so that by 201B they eApect ZD billion for robots an% other automation e0uipment"O (Source) 1"12 Jey or!anisations '.'..' &BR E&nternational Bederation of RoboticsF Do#nloa% report here" '.'... ,AR8A '.'../ 8entagon *tlas .A '.'..0 7oston Robotics '.'..5 Gniversal Robots Ehat humans take 4 %ays takes this robot just 4 hours" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRsf=7!41@.ycUtR1F2 '.'..9 !amaha '.'..= iRobot '.'..> Rethin( Robotics /aAter Q a universal robot that can be traine%" 5e0uires =' pro!rammin!" /ase price Z22&000" /aAter is no# at #ork in @reece" 4or a mere Z22&000 you !et a relentless #orker" +n 5 years$ time& +N% eApect /aAter to cost Z10&000 or less" O*t a ?ohnson T ?ohnson factory in @reece& a K55 is use% on a pro%uction line #here it performs repetitive pick an% place tasks as a link bet#een t#o parts of a pro%uction line" 8he robot takes bottles of cream from one pro%uction line& an% places them onto the packa!in! line" 4leAibility is the key re0uirement because there are several %ifferent types of creams comin! %o#n the line& each positione% %ifferently" he @reek inte!rator:%istributor& +nnoPro 8echnolo!ies& #hich sol% an% installe% the robot& sai% that ?T? en!ineers #ere 100^ satisfie% an% have even !iven the robot a name"O (Source) /aAter coul% Gin 10115 yearsH turn into a home1robot that puts %ishes into the %ish#asher an% back on the shelf& polishes shoes& cleans toilets& an% perhaps cooks simple %ishes" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .' '.'..? $ey publicly traded robotic companies Source2 http2::###"everythin!1robotic"com:2012:04:pickin!1robotics1stocks1is1 complicate%"html '.'..?.' 1ealthcare Applications% &ntuitive 2urgical G+S5@2KSH an% its %a 7inci 5obotic Sur!ical System are bein! installe% at major hospital operatin! centers #orl%#i%e" +ntuitive Sur!ical has more than DB0 K"S" an% forei!n patents as #ell as more than FF0 pen%in!" 3a(o 2urgical GM*J'2KSH has an interactive robotic arm orthope%ic system for knee implants" Accuray G*5*L2KSH an% its 3yberJnife 5obotic 5a%iosur!ery System is an up1an%1 comin! robotic ra%iation treatment system" 2"isslog GSC'@2SEH makes #arehouse automation %evices as #ell as hospital lo!istics an% %ru! mana!ement solutions usin! mobile robots" 3a:or Robotics GM['52+CH& an +sraeli company& provi%es state1of1the1art robotic sur!ical !ui%ance systems" '.'..?.. ,efenseH 2ecurity and 2pace ApplicationsI% *ero7ironment G*7*72KSH is a provi%er of unmanne% aircraft& systems an% services an% D5^ of their revenue comes from K*S Gunmanne% aerial systemsH sales" 8hey re!ularly !et DoD or%ers for their 5aven an% Easp small unmanne% aircraft systems an% just !ot three or%ers totalin! Z2D"4 million for pro%uction of their Puma %rone" i5obot G+5/82KSH& a 100^ pure play robotics company& just ha% a 66^ %rop in their stock price because of re%uce% !overnment contracts" 8hey have recently restructure% to a%% healthcare to their lineup of pro%ucts& consumer pro%ucts are %oin! fine& an% the company is fishin! for a%%itional consumer robotic pro%ucts" <ineti< G<<:2C=H is i5obotNs %irect competitor in the %efense robotics marketplace %espite their bein! a /ritish company an% not a pure play stock" 8 1any of the ma9or providers in :efense, &ecrity and &pace do have robotics sbsidiaries bt are conglomerates !here only a very small portion of their revene is derived from robotics, hence they are not listed here. ;<amples of this type of company inclde7 Northrup Grumman, Rockwell Automation, General Dynamics, Boeing, Teledyne, Textron and 6anadian MacDonald Dettwiler. '.'..?.' &ndustrial and Co*robot ApplicationsII% Adept Technology G*D.P2KSH is one of the very fe# in%ustrial robot manufacturers base% in the K"S" Most of itNs revenue from robotics comes from manufacturin!& foo% processin!& automotive an% #arehousin! applications" Eith their recent ac0uisition of Mobile 5obotics& an% after stren!thenin! an% mo%ulariIin! their mobile ac0uisition&the company be!an to enter the service robotics sector" 8#o privately hel% companies& Gniversal Robotics& a Danish company an% c*Jin( 2ystems& from the KS& alon! #ith t#o publicly1tra%e% companies $G$A GJK22@5H an% A77 G*//=27VH& have release% li!ht#ei!ht& economical& safe& robotic arms for li!ht in%ustrial an% SM. #ork" $G$A GJK22@5H has been !ettin! a lot of press for their increasin! involvement in 3hina& too" *ll these companies GJKJ*& *//& 4*=K3& *%ept& Laska#a .lectric GMotomanHH hope to %o #ell in 3hina as 3hina automates its automotive an% other in%ustries" /ut JKJ* an% the other non13hinese companies may have problems further %o#n the roa% #hen 3hinaNs in1country technolo!y machine takes over" .. A77 G*//=27VH has for many years been active in 3hina an%& until Boxconn announce% that they #oul% be manufacturin! their o#n robots& *// #as rumore% to be the lea%in! conten%er to !et the job" *// stock comes #ith the caveat that robotics represents only 21^ of their corporate revenue" !as(a"a Electric GMotomanH G>50>2?PH is similar to *// in that the company is #ell respecte% as a robot manufacturer yet robotics represents only 60^ of revenues" 8hey recently announce% buil%in! plans for a robot factory in 3hina" BANGC G>F542?PH recently complete% construction of an a%%itional factory in ?apan to han%le sales to 3hina" '.'..?.. Ancillary businesses to the robotics industry% Trimble G=*SD*<285M/H provi%es a%vance% positionin! pro%uct solutions an% component parts as %oes Hemisphere @PS G8S.2H.M 8oronto Stock .Achan!eH in 3ana%a& particularly for the a! in%ustry" 8rimbleNs recent ac0uisition of @ate#in!& a /el!ium provi%er of a 411:2 poun% unmanne% aircraft an% soft#are specialiIe% for surveyin! an% mappin!& provi%es a complementary subsi%iary for 8rimble" OEe$re lookin! at the ac0uisition of @ate#in! as the start of a center of eAcellence that #ill broa%en into a pro%uct line& rather than a sin!le pro%uct"- BAR6 Technologies G=*SD*<24*5'H provi%es 6D measurement an% inspection arms an% scanners" Cognex G=*SD*<23@=VH is a provi%er of machine vision pro%ucts primarily use% in robotic applications" Allied 3otion Technologies G*M'82KSH makes the servos that are incorporate% in the %a 7inci sur!ical an% other robotic systems" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ./ 1"16 'pinions '.'/.' 3ostly positive '.'/.'.' Ray $ur:"eil Source2 http2::###"fool"com:investin!:!eneral:2016:12:26:the1shape1of1the1future1 ho#1to1help1tomorro#s1chil"aspAU"KrlBSf<E2Sp 5ay JurI#eil believes stron!ly in the lon!1run ability of the economy to overcome threats of technolo!ical unemployment& because itNs %one such a !oo% job overcomin! these threats in the past" His rebuttal to critics #ho believe that robots are %estine% to take all our jobs echoes the comments Michael 3horost ma%e about enlar!in! the scope of our ima!inations2 8his (technolo!ical unemployment) controversy !oes back to the a%vent of automation in the teAtile in%ustry in .n!lan% at the be!innin! of the nineteenth century #hich marke% the be!innin! of the in%ustrial revolution" Eeavers sa# that one person #ith the ne# machines coul% replace %oIens of #eavers" =e# types of machines #ere intro%uce% 0uickly an% the #eavers pre%icte% that employment #oul% soon be enjoye% only by the elite" 8hey coul% see clearly the jobs !oin! a#ay but not the ne# types of employment that coul% not be %escribe% because they ha% not been invente% yet" 8hey forme% a society to combat this calle% the Cu%%ites" 8he reality turne% out very %ifferent from their fears" =e# in%ustries #ere forme% an% ne# jobs create% that never eAiste% before" 8he common man an% #oman coul% no# have more than one shirt or blouse" 8he reality of jobs lost coul% be seen very clearly #hereas the a%vent of ne# jobs that ha% not yet been invente% #ere har%er to un%erstan%" +f + #ere a prescient futurist !ivin! a speech in 1F00& + #oul% say that a thir% of you no# #ork on farms an% another thir% in factories& but in a hun%re% years 11 that is& by the year 2000 11 that #ill !o %o#n to 6^ an% 6^" 8hat is in%ee% #hat happene%P to%ay it is 2^ an% 2^" .veryone in 1F00 #oul% eAclaim& OMy !o%& #eNll all be out of #ork_O +f + then sai% not to #orry& youNll !et jobs as #ebsite %esi!ners& %atabase e%itors& or chip en!ineers& no one #oul% kno# #hat + #as talkin! about" +n the K"S" to%ay& >5^ of #orkers are kno#le%!e #orkers of some kin% an% almost none of these jobs eAiste% fifty years a!o" So a!ain to%ay #e can envision types of #ork that #ill !o a#ay throu!h continue% automation an% it is %ifficult to envision the jobs that have not yet been invente%" '.'/.'.. @illiam Ja:onic( CaIonick is %irector of the Kniversity of Massachusetts 3enter for +n%ustrial 3ompetitiveness" See article2 5obots DonNt Destroy ?obsP 5apacious 3orporate .Aecutives Do" '.'/.'./ 1al arian O5obotics is #here computers #ere 15 years a!o" *ll the bi! manufacturin! plants have robots& but they$re really eApensive an% have to be care% for by specialists" /ut they are !ettin! cheaper an% cheaper"$$O 8heir rate of improvement #ill bo!!le the min%" 8hatNs a firm pre%iction"http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:varians1 analysis:story1e>fr!abA1122>16DBF6D65 .0 '.'/.'.0 ,r. 3ichio $a(u *re Ee 5ea%y 4or the 3omin! N*!e of *bun%ance; 7i%eo2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+ '.'/.'.5 Bran( Jevy and Richard 3urnane 8hir% Eay report& ,Dancin! #ith 5obots-" http2::#eb"mit"e%u:flevy:###: 8he =e# Division of Cabor2 Ho# 3omputers *re 3reatin! the =eAt ?ob Market 4rank Cevy T 5ichar% ?" Murnane '.'/.'.9 Robin 1anson Hanson& 5obin" .conomic @ro#th @iven Machine +ntelli!ence" Hanson& 5obin" .conomics of 8he Sin!ularity http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRv%7SPj8.aaL 2ingularity economics http2::hanson"!mu"e%u:+...Spectrum1>10D"p%f '.'/.'.' @. 7rian Arthur 8he opportunities offere% by the #ealth1!eneratin! capacity of machines& bits an% bytes& al!orisms& an% artificial intelli!ence #ill fun%amentally shift our societal concerns from ,ho# best to !enerate !ro#th- to ,ho# best to %istribute #ealth"- ,8he pro%uctive part of the economy #ill be in !reat shape& but the %istribution of it #ill be the main problem&- says E" /rian *rthur& visitin! scholar at the Palo *lto 5esearch 3enter$s +ntelli!ent Systems Caboratory" ,8he bi! problem from 2010 on is %istributin! all the #ealth& !ettin! it into human han%s"- (Source) '.'/.'.' 3ar( Thoma http2::economistsvie#"typepa%"com:economistsvie#:2016:01:robots1an%1all1that"html ,8here #ill be jobs #e can$t ima!ine ri!ht no#&- says Mark 8homa& an economist at the Kniversity of 're!on" (Source) '.'/.'.' Elie:er !ud(o"s(y +ntelli!ence .Aplosion Microeconomics 8he 5obots& *+& an% Knemployment *nti14*< '.'/.'.' Jaurence $at: ,Ca#rence JatI& a Harvar% economist& says that no historical pattern sho#s these shifts lea%in! to a net %ecrease in jobs over an eAten%e% perio%" 8he 0uestion& he says& is #hether economic history #ill serve as a useful !ui%e" Eill the job %isruptions cause% by technolo!y be temporary as the #orkforce a%apts& or #ill #e see a science1fiction scenario in #hich automate% processes an% robots #ith superhuman skills take over a broa% s#ath of human tasks; 8hou!h JatI eApects the historical pattern to hol%& it is ,!enuinely a 0uestion&- he says" ,+f technolo!y %isrupts enou!h& #ho kno#s #hat #ill happen;- (Source) '.'/.'.' Robert At(inson http2::###"i%easlaboratory"com:2016:0F:0F:robert1atkinson1robots1are1not1the1 enemy: 8ime for a Manufacturin! Debate /ase% on 4acts& =ot 'pinion Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .5 '.'/.'.' Nic( 7loom =ick /loom& an economics professor at Stanfor%& has seen a bi! chan!e of heart about such technolo!ical unemployment in his %iscipline recently" 8he receive% #is%om use% to be that althou!h ne# technolo!ies put some #orkers out of jobs& the eAtra #ealth they !enerate% increase% consumption an% thus create% jobs else#here" =o# many economists are takin! the short1 to me%ium1term risk to jobs far more seriously& an% some think the potential scale of chan!e may be hu!e" Mr 8hrun %ra#s a parallel #ith employment in a!riculture& #hich accounte% for almost all jobs in the pre1mo%ern era but has since shrunk to just 2^ of the #orkforce" 8he a%vent of robots #ill have a similar effect& he pre%icts& but over a much shorter perio%" .ven so& he is sure that human in!enuity #ill !enerate ne# jobs& just as it create% vast ne# in%ustries to counteract the %ecline in a!ricultural employment" (Source) '.'/.. 3ostly negative Ei.e. this is a big issue for societyF ,8he cab came floatin! %o#n out of the sky at the intersection an% maneuvere% itself to rest at the curb neAt to them #ith a finicky precision" 8here #as& of course& nobo%y in itP like everythin! else in the #orl% re0uirin! an +"<" of less than 150& it #as computer controlle%" 8he #orl%#i%e %ominance of such machines& 3hris$s father ha% often sai%& ha% been one of the chief contributors to the present an% apparently permanent %epression2 the comin! of semi1intelli!ent machines into business an% technolo!y ha% create% a secon% +n%ustrial 5evolution& in #hich only the most hi!hly creative human bein!s& an% those most !ifte% at a%ministration& foun% themselves #ith any skills to sell #hich #ere #orth the #orl%$s money to buy" 3hris stu%ie% the cab #ith the liveliest interest& for thou!h he ha% often seen them before from a %istance& he ha% of course never ri%%en in one" /ut there #as very little to see" 8he cab #as an e!!shape% bubble of li!ht metals an% plastics& painte% #ith lar!e re%1 an%1#hite checkers& #ith a ro# of #in%o#s runnin! all aroun% it" +nsi%e& there #ere t#o seats for four people& a speaker !rille& an% that #as allP no controls& an% no instruments" 8here #as not even any visible& place for the passen!er to %eposit his fare"- (?ames /lish& 1F>2& * Cife for the Stars& 3ities +n 4li!ht& 7olume 8#o) '.'/...' Andre" 3cCaffee and Eri( 7ryn+olfsson 8his talk by *n%re# Galrea%y cite% earlierH is #orth listenin!2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR<fM@y3k6V8# .rik$s talk here2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRso%1e?/fFL0 .rik /rynjolfsson an% *n%re# Mc*fee& both at M+8& also have hi!h hopes for the lon!1term effect of robots an% similar technolo!ies" /ut in a recent book& ,8he Secon% Machine *!e-& they ar!ue that technolo!ical %islocation may create !reat problems for mo%erately skille% #orkers in the comin! %eca%es" 8hey reckon that innovation has spee%e% up a lot in the past fe# years an% #ill continue at this pace& for three reasons2 the eAponential !ro#th in computin! po#erP the pro!ressive %i!itisation of thin!s that people #ork #ith& from maps to le!al teAts to sprea%sheetsP an% the opportunities for innovators to combine an ever1!ro#in! stock of thin!s& i%eas an% processes into ever more ne# pro%ucts an% services" /et#een them& these tren%s mi!ht continue to ,hollo# out- labour markets in %evelope% countries an%& soon enou!h& %evelopin! ones& as more an% more jobs re0uirin! me%ium levels of skill are automate% a#ay" 8his helps eAplain& the authors .9 ar!ue& #hy the benefits of economic !ro#th increasin!ly accrue to a small !roup of hi!hly pai% people& citin! in evi%ence the lack of !ro#th in *merica$s me%ian #a!e an% the %ecline in #orkforce participation" (Source) '.'/...' ;effrey 2achs and Ja"rence $otli(off * paper by ?effrey Sachs an% Ca#rence Jotlikoff hi!hli!hts the #orryin! possibility that this shift coul% be self1perpetuatin!2 if automation absorbs jobs previously reserve% for youn! people& #ho have not yet ha% time to buil% up skills& it #ill stop them from ac0uirin! those skills& an% its %estructive effects #ill reverberate %o#n the years" (Source) '.'/.... 3artin Bord Silicon 7alley entrepreneur an% computer en!ineer" He believes that ,as technolo!y a%vances& a lar!er an% lar!er fraction of the population #ill essentially become unemployable- (Source) =ook2 8he Ci!hts in the 8unnel2 *utomation& *cceleratin! 8echnolo!y an% the .conomy of the 4uture =log7 http2::econfuture"#or%press"com: 'n Huffin!post ,8he 8ruth *bout Knemployment \ *n% Ehy +t May @et Eorse,& 1F ?anuary 2010 ,* ?obless 5ecovery` *n% * ?obless 4uture;,& 2 4ebruary 2010 ,8he 3omin! Structural Knemployment 3risis,& 24 May 2010 ,Knemployment2 8he .conomists ?ust Don$t @et +t,& & 4 *u!ust 2010 3oul% *rtificial +ntelli!ence 3reate an Knemployment 3risis; '.'/.../ $evin ,rum Drum& Jevin" Eelcome& 5obot 'verlor%s" Please DonNt 4ire Ks; Smart machines probably #onNt kill us all\but theyNll %efinitely take our jobs& an% sooner than you think" '.'/...0 Tyler Co"en 7ie#s of 8yler co#men Kero 3arginal 8roduct% 8hatNs 8yler 3o#enNs term for a se!ment of the current lon!1term unemploye%" 8heir pro%uctivity may not be literally Iero& but it is lo#er than the cost of trainin!& employin!& an% insurin! them" 8hat is #hy labor is hurtin! but capital is %oin! fineP %umpin! these employees is tou!h for the #orkers themselves 11 an% ar!uably ba% for society at lar!e Q but it simply %oesnNt %ama!e profits much" +tNs a col%& har% reality& an% one that #e #ill have to %eal #ith& one #ay or another" (Source) http2::###"overcomin!bias"com:200F:10:take1both1econ1tech1seriously"html Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .= http2::mar!inalrevolution"com:mar!inalrevolution:2012:12:are1robots1an%1a!in!1 %emo!raphics1self1cancellin!1problems"html +f robots concentrate #ealth in the han%s of +P o#ners& #a!es for many #orkers mi!ht fall or remain sta!nant" 8hat is a problem" Similarly& if robots concentrate #ealth in the han%s of +P o#ners& it may be har% to %rum up the taA revenue to support a hi!her %epen%ency ratio" 8he #ealthy may pro%uce a blockin! political coalition or capital simply may be har%er to taA for mobility& accountancy& an% Caffer curve1like reasons" 8here is then a problem #ith the %epen%ency ratio" (Source) *lso2 'A 8ercent Gnemployment Borever- /L 8LC.5 3'E.=& ?*LM. C.MJ. a ?*=K*5L 5& 2011 8he K"S" economy finally appears to be pickin! up steam an% hea%e% to#ar% recovery2 several economic in%icators 11 inclu%in! manufacturin! an% services output& an% sales of cars an% consumer !oo%s 11 have sho#n noticeable improvement over the last fe# months" Scan virtually any financial ne#s #ebsite& an% youNll see itNs no# a consensus that a sustaine% economic recovery has not only arrive% 11 itNs pickin! up spee%" /ut thereNs !oo% reason to believe that the labor market #onNt be keepin! pace" 5ather than an aberration& hi!h unemployment may be an en%urin! feature of the Knite% StatesN economy" Ee are& sa%ly& in a very %eep pit #hen it comes to the labor market" 8he recent private1sector estimate from *DP .mployer Services announce% the creation of 2FB&000 ne# jobs for December& but this is the first instance of a real %ent in the jobless rate since the be!innin! of the recession" 8he =ovember report from the K"S" /ureau of Cabor Statistics pe!!e% the unemployment rate at F"D percent& #hich translates to over 15"1 million unemploye%" 'ver 40 percent of currently unemploye% #orkers have been out of a job for over siA months& the hi!hest percenta!e of lon!1 term unemployment since Eorl% Ear ++" 8he numbers look even #orse if #e consi%er the un%eremploye%& #hich inclu%es potential #orkers #ho have !iven up lookin! for a job or the F percent of the labor force that is ma%e up of part1time #orkers #ho #oul% prefer to be #orkin! full1time" *t least 2"5 million people !ave up lookin! for #ork in the last year alone" .ven if the December rate of job creation continues& it #ill be 2014 before unemployment is %o#n to 5 percent" /ut last monthNs !oo% ne#s may not last" *t a more conservative estimate of 150&000 jobs a%%e% per month& it coul% be 2024 before employment is back to 200B levels" Jeep in min% that there are 100&0001plus estimate% ne# entrants into the #orkforce each month" +n =ovember& a sum total of F2&000 ne# jobs #ere create% 11 but that %i%nNt lo#er the unemployment rate" So #hat happene%; Ehy have *merican labor markets en%e% up in such a %ire situation; 8he simple Jeynesian eAplanation for the initial unemployment is that a!!re!ate %eman% 11 the countryNs combine% spen%in! an% investment 11 has been too lo#" /ut itNs unlikely that spen%in! is the only problem& as unemployment is too hi!h an% too persistent relative to similar episo%es of %isinflation in recent history" +f #eak %eman% #as the main problem& profits shoul% be collapsin! too& but they are not" +nvestment an% corporate profits have been fine for some time no#& an% they are broa%ly #ithin the ran!e of pre1recession estimates" 8hereNs a secon% problem #ith the Jeynesian story& #hich relies heavily on the .> notion that real& inflation1a%juste% #a!es are sittin! at too hi!h a level" +f unemployment causes someone real sufferin!& #hy #oul%nNt he or she be #illin! to take a lo#er salary to !et a job an% ease the pain; /ut rather than fallin!& private1 in%ustry #a!es are currently on the rise 11 up nearly >0 cents per hour since the en% of the recession" 8here are plenty of !oo% theories #hy it is har% to cut the #a!es of employe% #orkers 11 lon!1term contracts pose le!al challen!es& an% fra!ile #orker morale threatens to collapse un%er the stress of #a!e cuts" /ut itNs har%er to eAplain #hy unemploye% #orkers canNt fin% ne# jobs for less pay& especially if output is recoverin!& profits are hi!h& an% corporations are sittin! on a lot of cash" Many conservatives in the Knite% States have place% the blame for hi!h unemployment on the shoul%ers of Presi%ent /arack 'bama& ar!uin! that his a%ministrationNs liberal a!en%a has complicate% the recovery" /ut the statistics su!!est other#ise" *!ain& corporate profits an% consumer spen%in! are fine" +n%ee%& itNs the sector in #hich the !overnment has most %irectly intervene% 11 health care 11 that has maintaine% the most robust job !ro#th over the past t#o years& a%%in! 20&000 ne# jobs in =ovember alone" *n% %onNt !o blamin! job losses on ille!al immi!rants takin! jobs from %ocumente% #orkers2 Catino immi!rants have left the country in lar!e numbers since the start of the financial crisis" *s time passes& it is har%er to avoi% the notion that a lot of those ol% jobs simply #erenNt a%%in! much to the economy" .Acept for the hei!ht of the housin! boom 11 'ctober 200B throu!h ?une 200D 11 real @DP is no# hi!her than it has been in the entirety of K"S" history" 8he fact that the Knite% States has pre1crisis levels of output #ith fe#er #orkers raises %oubts as to #hether those a%%itional #orkers #ere pro%ucin! very much in the first place" +f a business o#ner fires 10 people an% a year later output is almost back to normal& itNs pretty har% to make the ar!ument that they #ere %oin! much in the first place" 8he story runs as follo#s" /efore the financial crash& there #ere lots of not1so1useful #orkers hol%in! not1so1useful jobs" .mployers %i%nNt so much bother to fi!ure out #ho they #ere" Deman% #as hi!h an% revenue #as boomin!& so rootin! out the less pro%uctive #orkers #oul% have involve% a lot of time an% trouble 11 plus it #oul% have involve% some morale costs #ith the more pro%uctive #orkers& #ho %onNt like bein! measure% an% spie% on" So firms simply let the problem lie" 8hen came the 200D recession& an% it #as no lon!er possible to keep so many people on payroll" * lot of businesses #ere then force% to face the music2 /osses ha% to make tou!h calls about #ho coul% be let !o an% #ho #as #orth savin!" G=ote that unemployment is lo# for #orkers #ith a colle!e %e!ree& only 5 percent compare% #ith 1> percent for less e%ucate% #orkers #ith no hi!h school %e!ree" 8his is consistent #ith the reality that less1pro%uctive in%ivi%uals& #ho ten% to have less e%ucation& have been lai% off"H +n essence& #e have seen the rise of a lar!e class of OIero mar!inal pro%uct #orkers&O to coin a term" 8heir pro%uctivity may not be literally Iero& but it is lo#er than the cost of trainin!& employin!& an% insurin! them" 8hat is #hy labor is hurtin! but capital is %oin! fineP %umpin! these employees is tou!h for the #orkers themselves 11 an% ar!uably ba% for society at lar!e 11 but it simply %oesnNt %ama!e profits much" +tNs a col%& har% reality& an% one that #e #ill have to %eal #ith& one #ay or another" So ho# shoul% #e interpret the recent trickle of !oo% ne#s; Eell& one positive note is that less1pro%uctive& lai%1off #orkers are un%ertakin! the nee%e% a%justments" 4or instance& accor%in! to a survey by the Pe# 5esearch 3enter& nearly B0 percent of unemploye% #orkers have alrea%y ma%e %ramatic chan!es in their career or job1fiel% choice& or are consi%erin! %oin! so" 8here also have been mi!rations out of Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .? eApensive urban areas an% into smaller an% less eApensive ones& such as *ustin& Salt Cake 3ity& an% northern 7ir!inia& #ith relatively hi!h1performin! in%ustries an% more flui% labor markets" +n other #or%s& the K"S" economy is !oin! throu!h some major structural shifts" +tNs not a 0uestion of !ettin! back to #here #e #ere& but rather that the economy must solve a ne# problem of re1employin! a lot of people #ho #ere not& in reality& pro%ucin! very much in the first place" 8hatNs a steeper challen!e than #e ha% realiIe% early in the sta!es of this recession 11 an% so far policymakers have faile% at meetin! it" *nalysts still %isa!ree on ho# rapi%ly the K"S" economy #ill recover" /ut theyNre missin! the point" 8he era of lo# unemployment may be in our rearvie# mirror for a lon! time to come" (Source) End of the average is nigh as ine#uality divides society Loun! people are a%vise% to avoi% eAcessive specialisation an% to N%o #hat you enjoy& learn !eneral skills& learn ho# to learn 1an% learn ho# to retrain yourselfN" Source2 @etty +ma!es D' you #ant your chil% to have a job in 2066; +f so& accor%in! to a book that is !rippin! policymakers in Eashin!ton& they ha% better start %eferrin! to computers" Society is about to be %ivi%e% into bi! earners an% bi! losers an% those #ho ra!e a!ainst the machine are %estine% for the scrap heap" 8yler 3o#en& an economics professor at @eor!e Mason Kniversity in 7ir!inia& %elivers the ba% ne#s cheerfully" +ne0uality is on the rise& he ar!ues& an% the mi%%le class #ill soon be seen as a 0uaint feature of a by!one era" 'ver the neAt t#o %eca%es& he pre%icts& society #ill become a OhypermeritocracyO in #hich 15 per cent #ill be richly re#ar%e% for their a%eptness in harnessin! technolo!y an% the remainin! D5 per cent #ill be consi!ne% to a fra!ile eAistence in #hich #a!es freeIe or fall an% fe# !et a secon% chance at success" His book& *vera!e is 'ver& conclu%es that #e are about to enter Othe a!e of !enius machines& an% it #ill be the people #ho #ork #ith them that #ill riseO" 4or the rest& life #ill be %eci%e%ly tou!h an% althou!h the fracturin! of society is Onot inevitable in a metaphysical senseO& he says& he has little optimism that !overnments #ill %o the thin!s necessary to make the situation better" *n en!a!in! an% eclectic thinker& 3o#en& 51& #as chess champion of =e# ?ersey at 15& has #ritten a !ui%e to ethnic %inin! an% is a prolific blo!!er" 8he Cos *n!eles 8imes has %escribe% him as Oa man #ho can talk about Haitian voo%oo fla!s& +ranian cinema& Hon! Jon! cuisine& abstract eApressionism& [airean music an% MeAican folk art seemin!ly #ith e0ual facilityO" Cast year& he #as invite% to Do#nin! Street to %eliver a seminar on in%ustrial policy an% #arne% a!ainst /ritain embracin! the politics of envy" 3o#en emphasises the importance of humility in acceptin! that computers usually kno# best an% has reflecte% this in his o#n life" He met his #ife 10 years a!o via Match"com& a me%ium that force% them Oout of our usual intuitions an% to our mutual benefitO" He is enthuse% by the a%vances in chess brou!ht by computers an% accepts that he mi!ht not have succee%e% as a youn! player usin! soft#are because O+Nm not sure ho# humble + #as back thenO" 8he key& he says& is to realise that& as in Ofreestyle chessO& in #hich players can /A consult computer pro!rams& Othe human an% computer to!ether are stron!er than just the computer& an% certainly stron!er than just the humanO" /ein! the best at chess 1or anythin! in life 1is no lon!er !oo% enou!h" O8he humans #ho are best at freestyle chess are not the !ran%masters but people #ho are smart an% kno# somethin! about chess but also kno# #hen to %efer to the computer an% #hen your #is%om actually counts for somethin!"O 3omputer al!orithms& he ar!ues& are becomin! better at kno#in! #hat #e #ant than #e %o 1an% successful people #ill just !o #ith this" 5ea%in! *maIon or Lelp revie#s lea%s to better choices 1as %oes #alkin! a#ay from a business %eal because a soft#are pro!ram tells you itNs too risky& even if your !ut is tellin! you to han! in there" 8he %o#nsi%e is that employers #ill also use computers #ith Ooppressive precisionO to measure output& #ee% out slackers an% spot those #ho have not al#ays been stea%y an% conscientious" Makin! a fresh start #ill become neAt to impossible" Ho# %o #e help our chil%ren to succee% in this brave& some#hat scary ne# #orl% 1to be part of the 15 per cent; 3o#en says the future is too unpre%ictable to pro%uce lists of jobs to !ravitate to#ar%s or to avoi%" /ut he %oes a%vise avoi%in! eAcessive specialisation2 ODo #hat you enjoy& learn !eneral skills& learn ho# to learn 1an% learn ho# to retrain yourself"O EH' *5. 8H. E+==.5S; E'M.=2 3o#en ar!ues that there #ill be a premium on service jobs that Omake people feel betterO an% on reliability" O* lot of these ne# jobs #ill be service sector jobs& so some of that #ill be lookin! after ol% people& some of that #ill be lookin! after youn! people& nannies& some of it !reetin! customers #ho sho# up"O Cookin! after the rich #ill also be lucrative" He a%%s2 O4or service sector jobs& a lot of #omen have a%vanta!es over men" Ho# many people #ant to hire a male nanny; 5i!htly or #ron!ly& a lot of people fin% #omen more reliable"O M*5J.8.5S2 =ot those #ho %i% a business course on marketin!& but those #ho kno# ho# to market themselves" O+n any society #ith hi!her ine0uality& marketin! matters much more&O 3o#en says" 8he #ealthy have increasin! %eman%s on their time an% are bombar%e% #ith information from all si%es" So ho# %o they %eci%e #ho to employ; OPeople #ho have the ability to someho# be persuasive or catch notice or be rhetorically effective or have a !oo% tra%emark or personal bran% 1the returns there are skyrocketin!"O 3'*3H.S2 8here are no# computer pro!rams that can mark essays" O+ fin% it 0uite remarkable&O 3o#en says" O8hey seem to %o it pretty #ell"O /ut this %oes not mean teachers #ill be out of a job" 8he ones #ho can be inspirational life coaches #ill %o especially #ell" O4or a !oo% coach& a !oo% tutor or a !oo% role mo%el& the returns #ill be very hi!h"O +n Hon! Jon! an% South Jorea& some tutors make millions of %ollars a year" O8hose tutors are not the smartest people& theyNre the best motivators """ the theatrical si%e of it is becomin! more important"O @.=.5*C+S8S2 3o#en says those #ho are computer #hiIIes #ill obviously %o #ell" /ut most of us are not like that" O+f you %o the humanities in a really smart #ay& you can %o really #ell" 8hatNs counter1 intuitive but """ mana!in! people& persua%in!& #ill be job skills #ith very hi!h returns"O Mark [uckerber!& the 4acebook co1foun%er& stu%ie% psycholo!y at Harvar% Gthou!h Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /' he %i% not !ra%uateH" * combination of technical kno#le%!e an% the ability to solve real1#orl% problems #ill be at a premium" 8hose #ho can prioritise an% sort information effectively #ill be sou!ht out by those in the 15 per cent #ho %o not have the time to %o it themselves" OPeople #ill #ant to !o to !eneralists #ho #ill be filters in %ifferent #ays&O 3o#en pre%icts" Smartphones alrea%y %o everythin! for us& bar makin! the tea" Siri %oes not al#ays kno# the ri!ht ans#er an% your @PS is far from infallible& but these tools are improvin! all the time" Humans #ho believe they kno# best are #ron! an% #ill be punishe% in the #orkplace for their arro!ance" 3o#en says those #ho listen to computers #ill #in the !litterin! priIes& even if they fin% their pri%e a little battere% at first" 8he possibilities for computers tellin! us thin!s about ourselves that #e %onNt kno# are en%less" +n *vera!e is 'ver& 3o#en #rites2 ODurin! a %ate& a #oman mi!ht consult a pocket %evice in the la%ies room that tells her ho# much she really likes the !uy" 8he machine coul% re!ister her pulse& breathin!& tone of voice& the level of %etail in her narrative& or #hichever biolo!ical features prove to have pre%ictive po#er"O 8H. 3'=S3+.=8+'KS2 8hose #ho put in the #ork stan% to inherit the earth" 3o#en believes that #ithin the neAt five years the #orl%Ns best e%ucation& or somethin! close to it& #ill be available online at no cost" ?ust because somethin! is there an% is free& ho#ever& %oes not mean everyone #ill take a%vanta!e of it" 'nly the self1motivate% an% conscientious #ill take a%vanta!e" *lrea%y& conscientious stu%ents from +n%ia are beatin! *merican slackers" 8he ability to monitor performance an% track recor%& an% for employers to have easy access to those recor%s& means the stea%y #orker #ho turns up on time& never has a !ap bet#een jobs an% %oes not take sick %ays #ill be priIe%" +MM+@5*=8S2 Despite the bi! %ivi%e bet#een the 15 per cent an% the D5 per cent& 3o#en foresees a hi!h %e!ree of social mobility" OPeople are risin! from the mi%%le& an% in%ee% the bottom& all the time& often immi!rants """ itNs completely #ron! to think the current elite #ill capture all of those !ains"O *s hi!hly motivate% an% conscientious #orkers& immi!rants are al#ays likely to %o #ell" O+mmi!rants are one !roup #here #hen they see a bi!!er %ivi%e& they try har%er to make that leap&O 3o#en says" +mmi!rants took a risk an% perhaps !ave up a comfortable an% safe lifestyle back home to strive for more" C'S.5S 85K3J %rivers #ill soon be out of a job as %riverless vehicles are perfecte%" ?ournalists #ho #rite basic match reports or summaries of the stockmarket may soon fin% that computers can %o as !oo% a job an% make fe#er mistakes" 4ilin! clerks are alrea%y no more" /ut the bi!!est losers 3o#en i%entifies are youn! men" O8hey mi!ht be smart& ener!etic& maybe even very creative& but theyNre often not that %iscipline%& no that conscientious& an% these ne# institutions #ill be measurin! their value every step alon! the #ay"O 3o#en says psycholo!y an% eAperience tell us that O#omen are on avera!e more conscientious than men """ more likely to follo# instructions an% or%ers #ith eAactness an% #ithout resentmentO" Ehile some men are eAtremely %e%icate% to #ork& there is a bi! %o#nsi%e to male employees" Men& in !reater numbers& he #rites& O#ill be more irresponsible& more likely to sho# up %runk& more likely to en% up in prison& an% more likely to become irreparably unemploye%O" /. He #arns that Oif youNre a youn! male hothea% #ho just canNt follo# or%ers& an% you have your o#n i%eas about ho# everythin! shoul% be %oneO& then you shoul% for!et about ever makin! it into that 15per cent" '.'/...5 872 ?obs are not just leavin! 3hina or KS*& they are leavin! the PC*=.8" =o more jobs to pro%uce thin!s like shoes" '=CL %esi!ners of pro%ucts are nee%e%& !iven universal robots an% 6% printers" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR#b2c+S!?Kok '.'/...9 8aul $rugman 1" ,5ise of the 5obots,& D December 2012 2" ,8echnolo!y or Monopoly Po#er;,& F December 2012 6" ,5obots an% 5obber /arons,& F December 2012 4" ,Human 7ersus Physical 3apital,& 11 December 2012 5" ,Policy +mplications of 3apital1/iase% 8echnolo!y2 'penin! 5emarks,& 2D December 2012 Jru!man an% Jaminska ar!ue that thereNs a stron! chance that re%istribution #ill !et si!nificantly more important in the near future" 8hatNs because& they fear& all our jobs #ill be taken by robots" (Source) Jru!man #rites2 +$ve note% before that the nature of risin! ine0uality in *merica chan!e% aroun% 2000" Kntil then& it #as all about #orker versus #orkerP the %istribution of income bet#een labor an% capital \ bet#een #a!es an% profits& if you like \ ha% been stable for %eca%es" Since then& ho#ever& labor$s share of the pie has fallen sharply" *s it turns out& this is not a uni0uely *merican phenomenon" * ne# report from the +nternational Cabor 'r!aniIation points out that the same thin! has been happenin! in many other countries& #hich is #hat you$% eApect to see if !lobal technolo!ical tren%s #ere turnin! a!ainst #orkers" (Source) '.'/...= &:abella $amins(a Jru!man an% Jaminska ar!ue that thereNs a stron! chance that re%istribution #ill !et si!nificantly more important in the near future" 8hatNs because& they fear& all our jobs #ill be taken by robots" " (Source) *n% Jaminska a%%s2 8he ne# ine0uality #e are seein! has little to %o #ith ho# #ell e%ucate% you are" +t$s har% to penetrate beyon% the barrier on e%ucation alone" 8he ne# ine0uality is about capital o#ners an% non1capital o#ners" *n% increasin!ly& it$s about technolo!y capital o#ners" 8hose #ho o#n the robots an% the tech are becomin! the ne# lan%lor% rentier types" (Source) '.'/...> Alex 1ern http2::###"ne#statesman"com:economics:2016:0>:basic1income1versus1robots 8#o #eeks a!o& + #rote about the i%ea of a citiIenNs income2 the state replacin! the vast majority of the benefit system #ith one cash payment ma%e to everyone& re!ar%less of employment or income" 8he a%vanta!es of such a chan!e are le!ion" *t a stroke& the thorny issues of Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com // incentives are %one a#ay #ith& since #ork al#ays paysP the %ea%#ei!ht loss associate% #ith means testin! %isappears Galbeit replace% #ith the %ea%#ei!ht loss of !ivin! money to people #ho %onNt nee% itHP those most likely to fall throu!h the cracks of a re!imente% #elfare state fin% the barrier to re1entry %one a#ay #ithP an% it allo#s for a reco!nition of the value of certain types of non1market labour& like carin! or raisin! chil%ren" 8he =e# Lork 8imesN Paul Jru!man an% the 4inancial 8imesN +Iabella Jaminska no# #a%e into the fray& proposin! another a%vanta!e of the policy2 its re%istributive effect" (Source) '.'/./ Confused '.'/./.' Bederico 8istono https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRkL+fe[cV*FKTlistRPC.5.16>/>>3063/BD 5arely has anyone been more confuse% that this youn! man" He is a totally confuse% socialist" He has no clue about ho# economies #ork an% therefore %oesnNt un%erstan% that robotics #ill take a#ay jobs but also allo# more creative jobs to become more economically viable" Sa%ly& these !eeks #ho are !oin! to become super1#ealthy an% therefore influential in #orl%1policy& %onNt un%erstan% economics" '.'/./.' 8eter ,iamandis https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRsV%*1lPBDJLTlistRPC.5.16>/>>3063/BD * !reat thinker& visionary an% master of technolo!y& an% eAtremely positive about the future" Ho#ever& he is totally confuse% about economics an% ima!ines a socialist future Gsee this eAtract here2 http2::###"tubechop"com:#atch:2424FF5H" 5espon%in! to Mr" 5eich& he sai% it$s 0uite possible that people #on$t nee% jobs the #ay they %o no#" *s the price of technolo!y falls& so #ill the cost of livin!& he sai%\ enablin! the #orl% to meet the basic nee%s of all people #ithin 60 years" He sai% that he is a libertarian an% a capitalist at heart& but that the "orld seems to be headed to"ard socialism" (2ource) ,EeNre hea%in! from a #orl% of OHaveO an% OHave1notsO to a #orl% of OHavesO an% OSuper1havesO" + think the final result of technolo!y is a sort of O8echnolo!y1 socialismO #here tech is han%lin! our basic nee%s""" no# iNm personally a libertarian1 capitalist by nature"- 8he en% result of technolo!y is Otechnolo!ical socialismO #here our basic nee%s are bein! met by 8ech" + %o think #e #ill be re1inventin! the economy Gor #hat ever that meansH an% #ill en% up #here ener!y an% information are the t#o most precious resources" (Source) His vie# is that once %evices become so !oo%& then there #on$t even be any professionals" He %oesn$t un%erstan% the conception of C+M+8C.SS human nee%s" 8herefore& there #ill still be many fiel%s in #hich jobs #ill continue to be create%" ?ust because only 2 per cent of us no# #ork in a!riculture %oesn$t mean jobs have %isappeare%" Ee just %o %ifferent thin!s& an% many more of them" *n% un%er no circumstance can prosperity continue #hen even the remotest #hiff of socialism comes into the system" /0 2" .Aamples of robotic innovations Ginclu%in! *+H 5obots are #i%ely use% to%ay& in hospitals& manufacturin!& police& arme% forces& a!e% care facilities Q an% virtually every#here else" Ee are mostly una#are of their presence& so successfully has this transition to robotics been" * summary on almost all robots can be foun% here2 http2::###"therobotreport"com:in%eA"php:archive 2"1 Smart assistants ..'.' Expliner 1igh*oltage 8o"er Transmission Jine &nspection Robot * phenomenal solution for bushfire prevention in 7ictoria" *lternative inspection Gphysical:helicopterH re0uire% by the 5e!s is both ina%e0uate an% eApensive" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR/y1y.6Brj!K ..'.. 2pare tyre mounting robot 8he spare tire mountin! robot has been in action since ?anuary& 2010 at an assemblin! line of 8akaoka plant of the company G4i!ure 1H an% by September 2010 successfully mounte% 100&000 spare tires automatically in cars #ithin 4550 s #ithout any troubles" 8hanks to ne#ly %evelope% loa% compensation mechanisms an% control al!orithm& the robot allo#s to be %riven by small servomotors of D0 E to han%le heavy objects so that the system can #ork to!ether #ith human #orkers #ithout any special safety measures like safety fences& #orkin! area separation& etc" conformin! to the !lobal safety re!ulations" (Source2 5ace a!ainst the Machine) ..'./ 8ac(ing assistant http2::money"cnn"com:!allery:technolo!y:2016:01:14:help1robots:2"html ..'.0 Automated vacuum cleaners i5obot etc" ..'.5 Toys robotic hamsters G[hu [huH Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /5 robotic pen!uins in%oor1flyin! iPhone controlle% 0ua% copter by Parrot" ..'.9 1ospital assistants Me%ical robotics Ginclu%e% in the services sectorH are poise% for many years of rapi% !ro#th propelle% by2 @ro#in! patient %eman% for non1invasive sur!ery& 8he current effort to re%uce hospital costs by increasin! pro%uctivity throu!h a variety of robotic activities Gnon1invasive sur!ery& pill %ispensin!& materials transfer& lab assistance& etc"H& Hospitals& #hich have hel% back capital purchases Gsuch as +ntuitive Sur!icalNs million %ollar %a 7inci %evicesH for the past t#o years& are be!innin! to reinvest in these types of e0uipment" (Source) ..'.9.' 3edicine 8ic(ing and ,elivering Robot 2ystem Me%icine Pickin! an% Deliverin! 5obot System hospital robot G5obot for accurate %elivery of the ri!ht me%icines to patients 1 use% in 50 hospitals alrea%yH http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR!>6EK3Ku3D0 ..'.9.. 2urgical assistants 'ver the last %eca%e si!nificant pro!ress has been ma%e in me%ical robotics" 8o%ay several thousan% prostate operations are performe% usin! minimally invasive robots& an% the number of car%iac proce%ures is also increasin! si!nificantly http2::###"us1robotics"us:reports:333^205eport"p%f 8hree1arme% robot kno#n as %a 7incib& #hich has helpe% to usher in the neAt !eneration of minimally invasive sur!ery 8he practice of robotic sur!ery is currently lar!ely %ominate% by the %a 7inci system of +ntuitive Sur!ical GSunnyvale& 3*& KS*H but other commercial players have no# entere% the market #ith sur!ical robotic pro%ucts or are appearin! in the horiIon #ith me%ium an% lon! term propositions" (Source) ..'.9./ 1eavy lifter http2::money"cnn"com:!allery:technolo!y:2016:01:14:help1robots:5"html ..'.= 3ilitary assistants 5obots in unstructure% environments Ge"!" i5obot bomb %isposal robotsH /9 ..'.> 8olice assistants ..'.>.' 2pying robot% http2::money"cnn"com:!allery:technolo!y:2016:01:14:help1robots:4"html ..'.>.' Robot micorobotsCinsects http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRcyjJ'?h+iuK ..'.? Agriculture and fisheries assistants +n ?apan %rones %ust crops an% track schools of tuna (Source) ..'.'A Ne" forms of transport http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR5C%uLhA5lDL (totally ne# forms of travel" * car takes the same space on the roa% as GpotentiallyH 14 #alkers" /y crunchin! the space nee%e% for the motor an% eliminatin! the nee% for 4 #heels& future transport coul% take far less space 1 lea%in! to a %ramatic re%uction in traffic con!estion2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR5C%uLhA5lDL Major solution to traffic con!estion2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRIb513vpt8t4 ..'.'' 3anager<s assistants 8elepresence robots2 http2::e%ition"cnn"com:2016:0>:1F:business:telepresence1 office1robots ..'.'. 7ee pollination assistant 5obobee 1 pollinator:surveillance 2"2 Eorkers Gin manufacturin!H ....' &ndustrial robots 8here are a massive number of in%ustrial robots that operate in manufacturin! plants& an% have almost entirely replace% humans" 8he #orl%Ns fastest robot Gin AstralianH" 2"6 Eorkers Gin retail:service in%ustryH ../.' 7urger ma(er 8his robot can make 640 bur!ers per hour Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /= 2"4 Humanoi% robots HKM*='+D 5'/'8S 1 S8+CC ='8 * 8H5.*8 8' ?'/S Humanoi% robots #ill take time 1 25 more years 1 to %isplace jobs" /ut in the mean#hile in%ustrial robots #ill %isplace hun%re%s of millions of jobs 2"5 Personal assistants ..5.' Translators @eo4luent offerin! from Cionbri%!e has brou!ht instantaneous machine translation to customer service interactions" (5ace a!ainst the machine) http2::###"thea!e"com"au:technolo!y:technolo!y1ne#s:its1the1thou!ht1that1counts1 20160D6112sAvp"html ,OEe hope that in a fe# years #eNll be able to break %o#n the lan!ua!e barriers bet#een people&O the senior vice1presi%ent of Microsoft 5esearch tol% the au%ience" 8here #as a tense t#o1secon% pause before the translatorNs voice came throu!h" 5ashi% continue%2 OPersonally& + believe this is !oin! to lea% to a better #orl%"O Pause& repeat in 3hinese"- (http2::###"thea!e"com"au:technolo!y:technolo!y1 ne#s:its1the1thou!ht1that1counts120160D6112sAvp"html) * C'8 of people offere% to translate /4= into %ifferent +n%ian lan!ua!es over the past 4"5 years& but not one #as successful in completin! the task" Most humans %onNt have time:capacity:%etermination to %eliver on their commitments" 'nce this translatin! system is available Gactually& it alrea%y isH& /4= can be supplie% in various +n%ian lan!ua!es instantly 1 thus multiplyin! its sprea% 50 times" ..5.. @al(ing assistant http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRpp4VKv!0kbK GH'E 8' E*CJH ..5./ 1ousemaid http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR7.CIj>Ey!6L /> 6" .conomic issues an% concerns 6"1 @lorious abun%ance %oesn$t mean absence of scarcity +f there is abun%ance of everythin! then much of economics becomes irrelevant" 8here is a fun%amental la# of economics& thou!h& that there is no =ivrana or total satiation" People are not !oin! to stop #antin! thin!s" 'nce they have material !oo%s they$ll #ant other Gmental:spiritualH !oo%s" Somethin! #ill al#ays be scarce& inclu%in! priIe% places of resi%ence" 4urther& total of pro%uction #ill never %rop to Iero Galthou!h mar!inal costs may #ell %rop to Iero in some casesH" 8herefore& all that the i%ea of 9!lorious abun%ance$ refers to is that mankin% #oul% have have mana!e% to pro%uce most !oo%s re0uire% for its sustenance at very lo# costs" 6"2 Machines an% humans2 complements or substitutes; 5obin Hanson asks2 are machines an% humans complements or substitutes; +8 is a !eneral purpose technolo!y" 5obots can %o routine thin!s&" Human #ill nee% to %o creative thin!s" * human1computer symbiosis scenario can be ima!ine% #here the human is %esi!ne% into the process" ,*ske% about the claim that such a%vance% in%ustrial robots coul% eliminate jobs& /rooks (pro%ucer of the /aAter robot) ans#ers simply that he %oesn$t see it that #ay" 5obots& he says& can be to factory #orkers as electric %rills are to construction #orkers2 ,+t makes them more pro%uctive an% efficient& but it %oesn$t take jobs"-- (Source) 6"6 3ost:benefit of robots:+8:technolo!y 5obots are not free" 8herefore the !eneral economic principle #ill al#ays apply& that no business #ill %eploy robots unless the benefits of %oin! so eAcee% the costs" 8#o key factors are makin! robots more likely to be %eploye%2 GaH risin! labour costs an% GbH fallin! robot costs" /./.' Capital robots and consumption robots Different treatments #ill apply to lon! live% robots vs" shortlive% ones Ge"!" floor cleanin! robotsH" /./.. Economics of drones The economics of cheap drone delivery" 6"4 Say$s la# an% robotics 8he essential fear amon! technolo!ists Gan% confuse% econmistsH is that robotics #ill lea% to !reater supply than %eman%" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /? 8he reality is that in a free market the supply creates %eman% Q since businesses only invest to the eAtent they anticiapate a %eman%" 8he fact that somethin! is pro%uce% is in%ication that there is %eman%" * proper un%erstan%in! of the Says$ la# is crucial to un%erstan%in! the future of the robotic economy" 6"5 'verall increase in prosperity:luAury /.5.' 8roductivity and gro"th ,8he economics of %i!ital information& in short& are the economics not of scarcity but of abun%ance-" (Source2 5ace *!ainst Machines) /.5.'.' The 3ay .A'/ 3c$insey report Source2 http2::###"mckinsey"com:insi!hts:businessStechnolo!y:%isruptiveStechnolo!ies 5" *%vance% robotics Durin! the past fe# %eca%es& in%ustrial robots have taken on a variety of manufacturin! tasks& usually those that are %ifficult& %an!erous& or impractical for humans\#el%in!& spray1paintin!& or han%lin! heavy materials& for eAample" 5obotics is no# seein! major a%vances that coul% make it practical to substitute machines for human labor in increasin! numbers of manufacturin! applications& in many service applications& an%& importantly& in eAtremely valuable uses such as robotic sur!ery an% human au!mentation" *%vances in artificial intelli!ence& machine vision& sensors& motors& an% hy%raulics\even in materials that mimic a sense of touch\are makin! this possible" 5obots are not only becomin! capable of takin! on more %elicate an% intricate tasks& such as pickin! an% packin! or manipulatin! small electronics parts& but they are also more a%aptable an% capable of operatin! in chaotic con%itions an% #orkin! alon!si%e humans" *t the same time& the cost of robots is %eclinin!" *%vance% robotics promises a #orl% #ith limite% nee% for physical labor in #hich robot #orkers an% robotic human au!mentation coul% lea% to massive increases in pro%uctivity an% even eAten% human lives Gsee /oA B& ,7ision2 Machines en% physical toil an% improve lives-H" Many !oo%s an% services coul% become cheaper an% more abun%ant %ue to these a%vances" 8he physically han%icappe% an% the el%erly coul% lea% healthier an% less1 restricte% lives usin! robotic prosthetics an% ,eAoskeletons- that strap on like braces an% assist in locomotion" Ee estimate that the application of a%vance% robotics across health care& manufacturin!& an% services coul% !enerate a potential economic impact of Z1"B trillion to Z4"5 trillion per year by 2025& inclu%in! more than ZD00 billion to Z2"> trillion in value from health1 care uses" 8his impact #oul% result from savin! an% eAten%in! lives an% transformin! the #ay in #hich many pro%ucts are built an% many services are %elivere%" *%vance% robotics also hol%s a !reat %eal of promise for businesses an% economies" .arly a%opters coul% !ain important 0uality& cost& an% spee% a%vanta!es over competitors& #hile some companies coul% fin% that a%vance% robotics lo#ers the barriers for ne# competitors" /usinesses in %evelopin! economies coul% be amon! the bi!!est buyers of robotics !iven the current rate of automationP ho#ever& these economies coul% be ne!atively impacte% by fallin! %eman% for lo#1#a!e manual labor& upon #hich they rely for economic %evelopment" 8he ability of robots to take on a far #i%er ran!e of jobs economically coul% encoura!e !lobal companies to 0A move some pro%uction back to a%vance% economies" +n a%vance% economies& some #orkers mi!ht fin% ne# job opportunities in %evelopin!& maintainin!& or #orkin! #ith robots" *t the same time& many jobs in a%vance% economies involvin! manual labor mi!ht be automate% a#ay& placin! even more importance on e%ucatin! an% retrainin! #orkers for hi!her1skill jobs" /oA B" 7ision2 Machines en% physical toil an% improve lives +ma!ine a #orl% in #hich a%vance% robots eApertly an% ineApensively perform an% au!ment most physical tasks" +ma!ine you are a mana!er in a manufacturin! plant in 2065" *t your plant& injuries are virtually unhear%1of" +n fact& there are fe# people on the floor2 a small !roup of hi!hly skille% specialists oversee thousan%s of robots& interactin! naturally #ith the robot #orkforce to pro%uce !oo%s #ith unprece%ente% spee% an% precision& 24 hours a %ay& 6>5 %ays a year" Ehen a ne# pro%uct or %esi!n improvement is intro%uce%& factory #orkers train robots to follo# ne# routines& usin! simple touch1screen interfaces& %emonstration& an% even verbal comman%s" Most of your %ay is spent optimiIin! processes an% flo#s an% even assistin! #ith pro%uct %esi!ns base% on #hat you see on the factory floor an% the %ata that your robots !enerate" Durin! lunch& you s#in! by a local fast1foo% restaurant" Lou #atch as your meal is prepare% an% cooke% eAactly the #ay you like it by a robot" /ack at your %esk& you see service robots makin! %eliveries an% cleanin! the floors an% #in%o#s" 'utsi%e& robots pick up trash an% replace broken street li!hts" +n a #orl% of a%vance% robotics& sur!eons are assiste% by miniature robotic sur!ery systems& !reatly re%ucin! both the time necessary for proce%ures an% their invasiveness" 5ecovery is more rapi% as #ell" People sufferin! from paralysis %ue to spinal injuries are able to #alk a!ain #ith the help of robotic eAoskeletons %irectly connecte% to the nervous system" D.4+=+8+'= 8ra%itional robots eAcel at tasks that re0uire superhuman spee%& stren!th& stamina& or precision in a controlle% environment Grobot #el%in! or semicon%uctor fabrication& for eAampleH" 8hey are bolte% in place behin% railin!s to prevent injuries to humans" 8hey %o eAactly #hat they are pro!ramme% to %o\an% nothin! more" /ut no#& a ne# !eneration of more sophisticate% robots is becomin! commercially available" 8hese a%vance% robots have !reater mobility& %eAterity& fleAibility& an% a%aptability& as #ell as the ability to learn from an% interact #ith humans& !reatly eApan%in! their ran!e of potential applications" 8hey have hi!h1%efinition machine vision an% a%vance% ima!e reco!nition soft#are that allo#s them to position objects precisely for %elicate operations an% to %iscern a part in a pile" 8hey are po#ere% by sophisticate% motors an% actuators& allo#in! them to move faster an% more precisely& an% some are ma%e from li!hter& softer materials" 8he KS Defense *%vance% 5esearch Projects *!ency GD*5P*H is even #orkin! on robots that can fully automate the se#in! of !arments& usin! a process that tracks the movement of in%ivi%ual threa%s an% precisely moves fabric to perform eAact stitchin! ">4 >4 Jatie Drummon%& ,3lothes #ill se# themselves in D*5P*$s s#eat1free s#eatshops&- Eire%& ?une D& 2012" *%vances in artificial intelli!ence& combine% #ith improve% sensors& are Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 0' makin! it possible for robots to make compleA ju%!ments an% learn ho# to eAecute tasks on their o#n& enablin! them to mana!e #ell in uncertain or flui% situations" /y 2025 a%vance% robots coul% be capable of pro%ucin! !oo%s #ith hi!her 0uality an% reliability by catchin! an% correctin! their o#n mistakes an% those of other robots or humans" 8hese robots can sense an% 0uickly react to obstacles& other robots& or human co#orkers& !ivin! them !reater ,a#areness- an% makin! it possible for them to #ork more safely si%e1by1si%e #ith humans" Many a%vance% robots can also communicate #ith one another an% #ork to!ether on share% tasks" Some a%vance% robots are %esi!ne% to be simple& small& an% ineApensive& #hile havin! the ability to be net#orke% to!ether an% #ork in teams" 8hese %istribute%& or ,s#arm&- robots coul% eventually be use% for %an!erous tasks such as search an% rescue operations" 4inally& a%vances in interfaces& sensors Ginclu%in! sophisticate% tactile sensorsH& an% actuators& combine% #ith improve% materials an% er!onomic %esi!ns& are furtherin! robotic sur!ery an% %ramatically improvin! the 0uality an% usefulness of human prosthetic %evices" Kltraprecise sur!ical robots are makin! ne# forms of minimally invasive sur!ery possible that can re%uce postsur!ical complications& enable faster recovery& an% possibly re%uce sur!ical %eath rates" 5obotic prosthetics an% eAoskeletons are able to take precise %irections an% make increasin!ly accurate an% %elicate movements" =e# interfaces have been %evelope% that can operate robotic limbs usin! small electrical si!nals pro%uce% #hen muscles contract or usin! si!nals from nerve en%in!s or even brain #aves" 8he capabilities of these prosthetics may soon come to rival or eAcee% those of actual human limbs" 8hese a%vances coul% eventually inclu%e prosthetic han%s #ith in%epen%ently movin! fin!ers an% prosthetic bo%y parts that mimic the sense of touch usin! a neural interface">5 8hese technolo!ical a%vances& combine% #ith %eclinin! costs& are makin! entirely ne# uses for robots possible" 4or eAample& .l DulIe& a Spanish foo% processor& no# uses hi!hly a!ile robots to !ently pick up hea%s of lettuce from a conveyor belt& measure their %ensity Grejectin! hea%s that %on$t meet company stan%ar%sH& an% replace them on the belt& #here other robots position the hea%s for a machine that removes their roots" 8he company says the robots are better than humans at assessin! lettuce 0uality Gthe reject rate has fallen from 20 percent to 5 percentH& an% hy!iene at the facility has also improve%">> P'8.=8+*C 4'5 *33.C.5*8+'= *%option rates for a%vance% robots #ill be %etermine% by many factors& inclu%in! labor market con%itions" 4or eAample& in 3hina& #here #a!es an% livin! stan%ar%s are risin!& #orkers are pressin! for better #orkin! con%itions& inclu%in! relief from lon! hours of precise piece#ork that can lea% to repetitive stress injuries" *s e%ucation levels rise& fe#er #orkers are #illin! to take such jobs" *s a result& 4oAconn& a contract manufacturer that employs 1"2 million #orkers& is investin! in robots to assemble pro%ucts such as the *pple iPhone">B *ccor%in! to the +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics Ga major robotics in%ustry !roupH& 3hina is eApecte% to become the #orl%$s lar!est consumer of in%ustrial robots by 2014" >5 Me!an Scu%ellari& ,Missin! touch&- 8he Scientist& September 1& 2012" 0. >> >D robots perform farmer$s #ork& case stu%y of 4anuc 5obotics .urope S"*"& +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics& September 2012" >B ?ohn Markoff& ,Skille% #ork& #ithout the #orker&- 8he =e# Lork 8imes& *u!ust 1D& 2012" @lobal manufacturin! labor costs to%ay are Z> trillion annually& so a%%itional automation represents a hu!e opportunity" Demo!raphics #ill also play a role in %eterminin! %eman% for a%vance% robotics" 5obotic sur!ical systems an% prosthetics coul% help meet the lar!e an% !ro#in! nee% Gparticularly in a%vance%& a!in! economiesH to provi%e 0uality health care" *n% many manufacturers still rely on le!ions of lo#1skill #orkers Goften in %evelopin! countriesH to %o #ork that involves precise operations on irre!ular objects& such as ben%in! tiny #ires to assemble mobile phones or %ebonin! chicken breastsP over the comin! %eca%e& many of these tasks coul% be automate%" =e# applications for a%vance% robotics& particularly in services& are also emer!in!" 5obots are no# poise% to take on %irty& %an!erous& an% labor1 intensive service #ork& such as inspectin! an% cleanin! un%er!roun% pipes& cleanin! office buil%in!s& or collectin! trash" Domestic service robots are another eApan%in! market" 8hou!h robotic vacuum cleaners have been aroun% for years& sales of these an% similar househol% robots are no# !ro#in! rapi%ly& by about 15 to 20 percent annually" *%option coul% accelerate even further by 2025 as these machines become more capable an% consumers consi%er the tra%e1offs bet#een buyin! robots& sacrificin! leisure time& or hirin! professional cleaners or !ar%eners to perform these tasks" *%vance% robots are also of !reat interest to military planners& #ho see opportunities to both automate combat Gsimilar to remotely pilote% %rone aircraftH an% support human troops" D*5P* is investin! in a ran!e of a%vance% robotics pro!rams& from a full robotics ,challen!e- Gsimilar to the D*5P* @ran% 3hallen!e that pioneere% self1%rivin! carsH to four1le!!e% robots for carryin! supplies& robotic eAoskeletons an% suits to stren!then an% protect troops& an% a%vance% prosthetic limbs to help injure% sol%iers" 8his type of military investment coul% !reatly spee% further a%vancement" 5obot prices are %roppin!& placin! them #ithin reach of more users" +n%ustrial robots #ith features such as machine vision an% hi!h1precision %eAterity typically cost Z100&000 to Z150&000" /y 2025& it is possible that very a%vance% robots #ith a hi!h level of machine intelli!ence an% other capabilities coul% be available for Z50&000 to ZB5&000 or less" +n recent %eca%es& robot prices have fallen about 10 percent annually Ga%juste% for 0uality improvementsH an% may %ecline at a similar or faster rate throu!h 2025">D *ccelerate% price %eclines coul% be ma%e possible by scale efficiencies in robot pro%uction G%ue in lar!e part to risin! %eman% by 3hinese an% other *sian manufacturersH& the %ecreasin! cost of a%vance% sensors Gpartly %riven by %eman% for ineApensive sensors in smartphones an% tabletsH& an% by the rapi%ly increasin! performance of computers an% soft#are" Some entrepreneurs are focusin! on %evelopin! ineApensive !eneral purpose robots that can be easily traine% to %o simple tasks Gsee /oA D& ,Lour ne# co#orker& /aAter-H" 8he rate at #hich robots coul% proliferate is a subject of intense %ebate" *ccor%in! to the +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics& in%ustrial robot sales reache% a recor% 1>>&000 units in 2011& a 40 percent jump over 2010P sales in 3hina !re# by more than 50 percent in 2011" Since 1FF5 !lobal sales Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 0/ have !ro#n by >"B percent per year on avera!e" +t is possible that there coul% be even faster >D Eorl% robotics 2012& +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics& *u!ust 60& 2012" !ro#th ahea% if /aAter an% other lo#1price%& !eneral1purpose mo%els can %rive rapi% a%option in simple manufacturin! an% service #ork" *t the same time& installations of a%vance% in%ustrial robots coul% accelerate beyon% historic rates if robotics technolo!y continues to accelerate" *%option scenarios #ill %epen% both on improvements in capability an% price an% receptivity to automationP in a%%ition& si!nificant or!aniIational an% societal barriers may stan% in the #ay" /oA D" Lour ne# co#orker& /aAter 8o make robots useful in lo#1en% manufacturin!& they not only have to be price% attractively& but they also nee% to fit into the #orkplace" 8hey can$t take up too much space& they have to #ork #ell an% safely #ith humans& an% they have to be easy to pro!ram" 8hese #ere some of the !oals for ,/aAter&- a Z22&000 !eneral1purpose robot %evelope% by startup company 5ethink 5obotics" *nother !oal #as to put a frien%ly face on robots\literally" /aAter features an C3D %isplay screen mounte% on a ,neck- above its bo%y" 8he screen sho#s a pair of eyes that take on %ifferent eApressions %epen%in! on the situation" 8he eyes follo# #hat the robot$s t#o arms are %oin!& as a human #orker #oul%" Ehile /aAter$s functionality is some#hat limite%\it is best at performin! simple operations such as pickin! up objects& movin! them& an% puttin! them %o#n\it makes up for these limitations #ith superior a%aptability an% mo%ularity create% by the ability to install %ifferent stan%ar% attachments on its arms" Ehen the robot is first installe% or nee%s a ne# routine& it ,learns- #ithout the nee% for pro!rammin!" * human simply !ui%es the robot arms throu!h the motions that #ill be nee%e% for the task& #hich /aAter memoriIes" +t even no%s its ,hea%- to in%icate that it has un%erstoo% its ne# instructions" P'8.=8+*C .3'='M+3 +MP*38 Ee estimate that by 2025 a%vance% robotics coul% have a #orl%#i%e economic impact of Z1"B trillion to Z4"5 trillion annually across the applications #e have siIe% G.Ahibit BH" Much of this impact\ZD00 billion to Z2"> trillion\coul% come from improvin! an% eAten%in! people$s lives" *n a%%itional ZB00 billion to Z1"4 trillion coul% arise from automatin! manufacturin! an% commercial service tasks" Ee estimate that the use of a%vance% robots for in%ustrial an% service tasks coul% take on #ork in 2025 that coul% be e0uivalent to the output of 40 million to B5 million full1time e0uivalents G48.sH" 8his coul% potentially have annual economic impact of Z>00 billion to Z1"2 trillion in %evelope% countries an% Z100 billion to Z200 billion in %evelopin! economies" 4inally& Z200 billion to Z500 billion in impact coul% arise from the use of time1savin! househol% service robots" .Ahibit B SiIe% applications of a%vance% robotics coul% have %irect economic impact of Z1"B trillion to Z4"5 trillion per year in 2025 00 1 Ksin! <*CL G0uality1a%juste% life yearsH estimates" ='8.2 .stimates of potential economic impact are for some applications only an% are not comprehensive estimates of total potential impact" .stimates inclu%e consumer surplus an% cannot be relate% to potential company revenue& market siIe& or @DP impact" Ee %o not siIe possible surplus shifts amon! companies an% in%ustries& or bet#een companies an% consumers" 8hese estimates are not risk1 or probability1a%juste%" =umbers may not sum %ue to roun%in!" S'K53.2 McJinsey @lobal +nstitute analysis Health care Ee estimate% the potential economic impact of robotic sur!ery an% robotic prosthetics to be as much as ZD00 billion to Z2"> trillion annually by 2025& base% on savin! lives an% improvin! 0uality of life" 4or estimatin! the potential economic impact of robotics for human au!mentation& #e consi%ere% potential uses of robotic prosthetics an% eAoskeletons">F /y 2025 there coul% be more than 50 million people #ith impaire% mobility in the %evelope% #orl%& inclu%in! amputees an% el%erly people& for #hom robotic %evices coul% restore mobility& improve 0uality of life& an% increase lifespan" +t is possible that 5 to 10 percent of these people coul% have access to robotic au!mentation by 2025 !iven the current penetration of alternatives such as tra%itional prosthetics an% motoriIe% #heelchairs" Stu%ies in%icate Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 05 that impaire% mobility contributes si!nificantly to re%uce% life eApectancy %ue to increase% health risks such as injury an% osteoporosis "B0 +f it #ere possible to eAten% life by one to t#o years for each %isable% person an% provi%e a 20 to 60 percent improvement in 0uality of life over ei!ht years usin! >F 5obotic mechanisms that can be #orn by physically han%icappe% people to help move limbs Gor even entire bo%iesH" B0 4or more on the effects of %isabilities on life eApectancy& see 5" 8homas an% M" /arnes& ,Cife eApectancy for people #ith %isabilities&- =euro5ehabilitation& May 200B" robotic assistance Gassumin! substantial restoration of normal functionH the result coul% be a potential impact of Z240&000 to Z6F0&000 per person& usin! a 0uality1a%juste% life year G<*CLH approach" +f these results can be achieve%& robotics for human au!mentation coul% lea% to a potential economic impact of Z>00 billion to Z2 trillion per year by 2025& much of #hich coul% be consumer surplus accruin! to the users of these robotic %evices" *s the technolo!y for robotic sur!ery improves& it coul% have the potential to prevent %eaths an% si!nificantly re%uce both in1patient care time an% misse% #ork %ays" 5obotic sur!ical ,platforms- are alrea%y bein! use% for minimally invasive proce%ures such as laparoscopic sur!ery" +t is possible that #ith a%vances in robotic technolo!y& by 2025 robotic sur!ery coul% be #i%ely use% for these an% other proce%ures" *pproAimately 200 million major sur!eries coul% be performe% every year in countries #ith %evelope% health1 care systems in 2025"B1 3urrently& about 6 percent of all major sur!eries result in %eath& but it is possible that by 2025& a%vance% robotic sur!ical systems coul% help re%uce these %eaths substantially& perhaps by as much as 20 percent& by re%ucin! common complications such as blee%in! or internal bruisin!" 8his improvement in outcomes coul% be enable% by more fleAible sur!ical robots #ith a !reater ran!e of motion that coul% perform more types of operations& or from ne# features such as *+1assiste% autocorrect systems that coul% #arn sur!eons #hen they are about to cut the #ron! tissue or apply too much pressure" Declinin! costs in robotic sur!ery systems coul% allo# more hospitals an% sur!eons to use the technolo!y& potentially increasin! the performance of many sur!eons" Ee estimate that if 5 to 15 percent of all major sur!eries in countries #ith %evelope% health1care systems coul% be performe% #ith the assistance of robots by 2025& it coul% result in >0&000 to 1D0&000 lives save% each year" 5obot1assiste% sur!ery coul% also cut in1patient stays an% sick %ays associate% #ith sur!ery by 50 percent" +f these results can be achieve%& #e estimate that robotic sur!ery coul% have an economic impact of Z200 billion to Z>00 billion per year by 2025"B2 +n%ustrial robots 4or in%ustrial robots& #e analyIe% %ata re!ar%in! job tasks& occupations& an% %istribution across countries "B6 Ee then consi%ere% #hich tasks coul% be fully or partially automate% economically by a%vance% robots by 2025& assumin! a hi!h level of robot performance an% continue% re%uctions in cost" +n %evelope% countries& across occupations such as manufacturin!& packin!& construction& maintenance& an% a!riculture& #e estimate that 15 to 09 25 percent of in%ustrial #orker tasks coul% be automate% cost1effectively Gbase% on estimate% 2025 #a!e ratesH by 2025" Ee estimate that in %evelopin! countries& on avera!e& 5 to 15 percent of manufacturin! #orker tasks coul% be automate% across relevant occupations by 2025" B1 /ase% on analysis by 8homas @" Eeiser et al"& ,*n estimation of the !lobal volume of sur!ery2 * mo%elin! strate!y base% on available %ata&- Cancet& volume 6B2& number F>66& ?uly 12& 200D" B2 Ee use a 0uality1a%juste% life year G<*CLH of Z100&000 an% assume that sur!ical patients avoi%in! %eath are restore% to a normal life eApectancy" B6 *nalysis of job occupations an% tasks is base% on %ata from a variety of sources& inclu%in! labor an% #a!e %ata from the .conomist +ntelli!ence Knit& +nternational Cabour 'r!anisation& +HS @lobal +nsi!ht& .urostat& an% various national labor bureaus" Ee calculate% the potential cost savin!s usin! the estimate% annual cost of a%vance% robots compare% #ith the annual employment cost of an e0uivalent number of #orkers" 8his yiel%s a potential economic impact of Z>00 billion to Z1"2 trillion per year by 2025" 8his #oul% imply a substantial increase in the number of in%ustrial robots installe% !lobally by 2025& by about 15 million to 25 million robots& re0uirin! investments totalin! about ZF00 billion to Z1"2 trillion" 5ealiIin! all of this potential impact #oul% therefore imply 25 to 60 percent avera!e annual !ro#th in robot sales& si!nificantly hi!her than the avera!e !ro#th rate over the past t#o %eca%es& but lo#er than the !ro#th rate in 2010 an% 2011" Service robots Service robots fall into t#o cate!ories2 those use% in commercial settin!s an% personal robots" 4or personal an% househol% service robots& #e focuse% on the potential to automate cleanin! an% %omestic tasks such as vacuumin!& moppin!& la#n mo#in!& an% !utter cleanin!" 8he use of a%vance% robots for these types of tasks has si!nificant potential !iven the current trajectory of technolo!y improvement& the relatively lo# cost of the robots re0uire%& an% the alrea%y increasin! rate of a%option" Sales of househol% robots use% lar!ely for the above1mentione% tasks are alrea%y !ro#in! by about 20 percent annually" 8o estimate the potential impact of househol% robots& #e consi%ere% the amount of time spent on relevant cleanin! an% %omestic tasks& focusin! on the %evelope% #orl%& #here si!nificant a%option is most likely" /ase% on KS an% .uropean labor stu%ies& #e estimate that F0 billion to 115 billion hours per year are spent performin! relevant househol% tasks in the %evelope% #orl%"B4 +f 25 to 50 percent of people in the %evelope% #orl% #ere to a%opt the use of these robots by 2025& Z200 billion to Z500 billion #orth of time savin!s coul% be realiIe%" Ee believe this level of a%option is possible !iven the rapi% a%vances in lo#1cost robotics technolo!y& the relatively limite% sophistication of the robots re0uire% for these applications& an% the %emonstrate% #illin!ness of many consumers to pay for househol% time1savin! %evices" 4or commercial service robots& #e analyIe% %ata on job tasks& occupations& an% %istribution across countries "B5 Ee then consi%ere% #hich tasks coul% be fully or partially automate% economically by a%vance% robots by 2025& assumin! a hi!h level of robot performance an% continue% re%uctions in cost" Ee estimate that in %evelope% economies& across occupations such as foo% preparation& health care& commercial cleanin!& an% el%er care& as much Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 0= as B to 12 percent of commercial service #orker tasks coul% be automate% cost1effectively by 2025" 4or eAample& nurses spen% up to 20 percent of their shift time #heelin! e0uipment an% carts from one location to another or #aitin! for a cart to arrive" So1calle% courier robots Gself1!ui%e%& motoriIe% cartsH can take on these tasks" Ee estimate that in %evelopin! countries& 4 to D percent of commercial service #orker tasks coul% be automate% across relevant occupations by 2025" 8o achieve this& #e estimate that 2"5 million to ei!ht million a%vance% robots #oul% be necessary& re0uirin! an estimate% investment of Z200 billion to Z400 billion !lobally by 2025" B4 .stimates base% on %ata from 5achel JrantI1Jent& ,Measurin! time spent in unpai% househol% #ork2 5esults from the *merican time use survey&- Monthly Cabor 5evie#& volume 162& number B& ?uly 200F" B5 *nalysis of job occupations an% tasks base% on %ata from a variety of sources& inclu%in! labor an% #a!e %ata from the .conomist +ntelli!ence Knit& +nternational Cabour 'r!anisation& +HS @lobal +nsi!ht& .urostat& an% various national labor bureaus" /*55+.5S *=D .=*/C.5S 8here are several important barriers that coul% limit a%option of a%vance% robotics by 2025" 4irst& althou!h costs are %eclinin!& most in%ustrial an% many commercial service robots remain eApensive& costin! tens or hun%re%s of thousan%s of %ollars per robot" Sur!ical robots often cost more than Z1 million Galthou!h these costs coul% come %o#n an% fe# of these mi!ht be nee%e% compare% #ith in%ustrial an% service robotsH" Car!e1scale a%option of in%ustrial an% service robots coul% re0uire investments of perhaps Z1"1 trillion to Z1"> trillion by 2025" /efore makin! these investments& companies #oul% likely re0uire stron! evi%ence of positive returns on investment& an% establishin! a clear track recor% of performance coul% take years" *n% once robots are purchase% an% installe%& it can still take time to re%esi!n processes an% flo#s to fully take a%vanta!e of their capabilities" Sur!ical robots have alrea%y seen si!nificant !ro#th in a%option& but a%%itional trials an% %ata #ill be re0uire% to fully %emonstrate their benefits& particularly !iven concerns about health1care costs in the Knite% States an% other a%vance% economies" 8here are also 0uestions about #hether robotically assiste% sur!ery has %emonstrate% si!nificantly better performance than nonrobotic minimally invasive sur!ery techni0ues& #hich are less costly" Ehile the capabilities an% performance of the technolo!y coul% improve si!nificantly by 2025& a%option may be constraine% until %efinitive proof of results is available" 8he talent re0uire% to operate an% maintain a%vance% robots is an important enabler that #ill be re0uire% to fully capture their potential" Some a%vance% robots coul% be %esi!ne% to be very user1frien%ly an% able to #ork naturally si%e1by1si%e #ith humans& but a%vance% robots may still re0uire a hi!h level of eApertise to maintain their har%#are an% soft#are" 4inally& the potential effect of a%vance% robots on employment coul% !enerate social an% political resistance& particularly if robots are perceive% as %estroyin! more jobs than they create" *lthou!h the pro%uctivity improvements that a%vance% robots #oul% create #oul% %rive !ro#th in the economy& the #orkers #ho #oul% be %isplace% mi!ht not be easily re1 employe%" Policies %iscoura!in! a%option of a%vance% robots\for eAample& 0> by protectin! manual #orker jobs or levyin! taAes on robots\coul% limit their potential economic impact" Policy makers #ill face %ifficult 0uestions re!ar%in! le!al liability& such as %eterminin! #ho is at fault #hen service or househol% robots contribute to acci%ents or injuries" +MPC+3*8+'=S 'ver the comin! %eca%e& a%vance% robotics coul% %eliver tremen%ous value for robot creators& health1care provi%ers& manufacturers& service provi%ers& entrepreneurs& consumers& an% societies" 4or many businesses& a%vance% robotics promises si!nificantly re%uce% labor costs& !reater fleAibility& an% re%uce% time to %eliver pro%ucts to the marketplace" /usiness lea%ers shoul% look for opportunities to levera!e !ro#in! technolo!y capabilities to help automate %ifficult& labor1intensive& an% %an!erous tasks in #ays that are simple& user1frien%ly& an% cost1effective& #hether for treatin! patients or automatin! manual #ork" 4or hospitals an% health1care provi%ers& a%vance% robotics coul% ultimately offer substantial improvements in patient care an% outcomes" *s a result& provi%ers of robotic systems an% supportin! tools or services coul% see lar!e !ro#th opportunities over the comin! %eca%e" Makers of robotic sur!ical systems coul% see stron! %eman% for increasin!ly a%vance% systems but also feel pressure to minimiIe costs an% clearly %emonstrate improve% outcomes for patients" Makers of robotic prosthetics an% eAoskeletons coul% eAperience similarly hi!h %eman% an% may #ant to look for #ays to reach %isable% an% el%erly people aroun% the #orl%& even in less1%evelope% re!ions" Manufacturin! an% service companies #ith lar!e #orkforces coul% benefit from re%uce% costs& re%uce% injuries& an% lo#er overhea%& as #ell as re%ucin! payrolls in human resources& labor relations& an% factory supervisory roles" 4actories mi!ht no lon!er nee% to be locate% near sources of lo#1cost labor& allo#in! them to be locate% closer to final assembly an% consumers& simplifyin! supply chains an% re%ucin! #arehousin! an% transportation costs" Ho#ever& business lea%ers #ill face challen!es in capturin! the full pro%uctivity an% 0uality improvements that coul% be affor%e% by a%vance% robots" *%vance% robotics re0uires substantial capital investments& an% businesses #ill nee% clear evi%ence of positive return on investment" 5econfi!urin! manufacturin! processes& service %elivery channels& an% supply chains is %ifficult an% time1consumin!" 8rainin! employees to #ork effectively alon!si%e robots is also no small task" 8o maAimiIe value capture an% stay ahea% of the curve& businesses shoul% continually eAperiment #ith a%vance% robotics an% a%%itional automation& i%entify promisin! technolo!ies& rethink business processes& an% %evelop in1house talent" 8hey shoul% also consi%er ho# their supply chains coul% be re%esi!ne% to levera!e automation& an% ho# a%%itional spee% to market& fleAibility& an% 0uality coul% help %ifferentiate their offerin!s from those of competitors" 4or some entrepreneurs& %ecreasin! robot cost an% increasin! capabilities coul% make entirely ne# business mo%els possible or %ecrease barriers to entry in the manufacturin! an% service in%ustries" 5obotically enable% pro%uction facilities& fast1foo% restaurants& self1service laun%ries& an% me%ical clinics mi!ht offer superior efficiency an% 0uality an% coul% scale 0uickly" .stablishe% manufacturers may nee% to accelerate automation to meet the competition #hile investin! in innovative pro%uct %evelopment or Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 0? superior service 0uality to better %ifferentiate their offerin!s" 4or societies an% policy makers& the prospect of increasin!ly capable robots brin!s potential benefits2 !ro#in! national pro%uctivity& hi!her10uality !oo%s& safer sur!eries& an% better 0uality of life for the el%erly an% %isable%" /ut it also poses ne# challen!es in employment& e%ucation& an% skill trainin!" +n some cases& access to a%vance% robotics coul% cause companies to repatriate manufacturin! operations from lo#1#a!e offshore locations" *n% the sprea% of robotics coul% create ne# hi!h1skill employment opportunities" /ut the lar!er effect coul% be to re%efine or eliminate jobs" /y 2025& tens of millions of jobs in both %evelopin! an% a%vance% economies coul% be affecte%" Many of these employees coul% re0uire economic assistance an% retrainin!" Part of the solution #ill be to place even more emphasis on e%ucatin! #orkers in hi!h1skill& hi!h1value fiel%s such as math& science& an% en!ineerin!" /.5.. &ncreased expectations 8he better the health robots& the more the %eman% for even more of them" 8he eApansion of the percolation of luAuries #ill continue unabate%" /.5./ Really lo" prices .ffect of competition an% really lo# prices2 http2::###"forbes"com:sites:tim#orstall:2012:12:10:that1robot1economy1an%1the1 rentier1class: /ut there is a point at #hich it is uneconomic to supply2 http2::###"tobiasbuckell"com:2011:01:05:economists1consi%er1robot1economics1 nee%1to1rea%1more1fre%erick1pohl: The robotic economy "ill be deflationary. 8lease get the confused $eynesians out of the "ay. Some time a!o + #rote about the irrational fear amon! Jeynesians of %eflation" 8he key ar!ument a!ainst %eflation is t#o1fol%2 aH +t prevents consumers from buyin! thin!s to%ay in anticipation of lo#er future prices" bH +t prevents investors from investin! in ne# projects since they are likely better off by simply puttin! their money in the bank" + %isa!ree on both counts" Ehen P3s first came into the market Gin the 1FD0sH #e Gthe consumersH al#ays kne# that if #e #aite% lon! enou!h& prices #oul% be lo#er an% 0uality hi!her" /ut that never prevente% a !oo% number of us from byin! computers imme%iately& since the benefits of that specific purchase eAcee%e% costs" Similarly& %espite kno#in! that prices of P3s are !oin! to fall %ramatically over time& pro%ucers have never hesitate% in rampin! up pro%uction" 8he cost1benefit of the investment %ecision alrea%y 8*J.S +=8' *33'K=8 future lo#er prices" +t is the overall 5'+ that matters& not future prices per se" 5A Consumers and investors ma(e decisions on the basis of 3ARG&NAJ analysis. They do not care about the specific value of AN! single parameter Eli(e priceF. They care 6NJ! that net benefits Eor consumer surplusF L net costs EpriceF. 7usinesses can ma(e 1GGE 8&JE2 6B 36NE! even in the face of falling prices. $eynesian ideas are fundamentally fla"edM not based on AN! credible economic analysis. $eynesian policies are preventing G2AC;apan from gro"ing rapidly +f prices #ere allo#e% to fall in KS*:?apan& consumers #oul% open up their purse strin!s an% start buyin!" 8hat #oul% prompt efficient pro%ucers to start pro%ucin! Gfor #hom the scale of the %eman% is a crucial si!nalH an% rapi%ly brin! the !lobal economy out of its eAten%e% slump" /ut such i%eas are anathema to the typical Jeynesian thinks consumers #ill only consume& an% businesses invest& un%er inflationary con%itions" Eho ever !ave them this stupi% i%ea; Ehy are these people tryin! to secon%1!uess optimal free market %ecisions; Eho ever allo#e% them to !ra%uate as economists; & can only say this% that if $eynesian ideas are not entirely re+ected by the "orldH then the onset of the Robotic Age N and the glorious abundance that "ill accompany is * "ill be greatly delayed. The Robotic Age "ill be accompanied by continuous 8R&CE ,EBJAT&6N for 362T goods and services. 8he 5obotic *!e cannot tolerate Jeynesian policies of artificial Gmonetary:fiscalH inflation" &t doesn)t matter in the Robotic Age ho" little consumers are "illing to spend. &t "ill 2T&JJ be profitable to produce goods. Co#er prices& better 0uality Gan% hi!h Q but possibly %ecreasin! me%ian #a!esH are not a ba% thin!" 8hey are the si!n of */K=D*=3." Cet the market fin% out its o#n prices" Move out of the #ay& /en /ernanke an% Paul Jru!man" Lou are seriously harmin! the #orl%" Addendum 4or those #ho protest that Jeynesianism is lar!ely relate% to fiscal policy& let me a!ree that there are stron! traces of monetarism in the lo# interest rate:0uantitative easin! strate!ies of the 4e%" 8hese policies& ho#ever& are Jeynesian in approach since they aim to stimulate the economy" + %isa!ree #ith any approach to Nfine1tuneN the economy throu!h the central bankin! system" /.5.0 Ja"s of investment "ill not change $ey point2 .ven lar!e technolo!y companies can easily !o bankrupt Ge"!" *maIon #orks at less than 1 per cent mar!inH" 3ompetition can %rive %o#n prices very steeply" Multiple players in each technolo!y #ill keep %rivin! costs %o#n" *n% althou!h o#ners of the technolo!y #ill prosper it %oesn$t seem likely that they #ill !et eAceptionally richer" Suppose @eneral Motors o#ns an in%ustrial robot" *s you say& it re0uires ener!y& maintenance& etc" *ll that is ='8 consumption" +t is an input use% in pro%ucin! cars" 3onsumption occurs #hen someone /KLS * 3*5" +f no one is buyin! cars& @M #ill Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5' shut the robot %o#n" +ma!ine an eAtreme case of a fully automate% economy" =o one has a job or an income" =o one can buy anythin!" *ll the machines #oul% en% up !ettin! shut %o#n& an% #arehouses #oul% be full of consumer pro%ucts that no one coul% buy" (Source) /ut this ar!ument is false it is much better to simply mo%el consumption as bein! somethin! that an a!ent %oes #hen they take in lo#1entropy resources an% spits out hi!h1entropy #aste" 8hen it becomes Mabun%antlyM clear that humans& machines an% corporations all act as consumers" Lou %o not nee% to be a person #ith a bank account to consume" 8he robot fuel an% parts count" 8hey create a %eman% for a !oo% or service that %i% not eAist before" *%% up all the purchases bein! ma%e instea% Gi!norin! #ho is makin! themH Q to un%erstan% #here the %eman% for !oo%s in the economy is MactuallyM comin! from Q an% then you #ill see that corporations an% machines can account for purchases just as #ell as humans can Q #ithout the ,sci1fi- of robots #ith incomes an% bank accounts" (Source) Jey issue is that companies #ill pro%uce '=CL if it is economically viable" 8hat inclu%es assessin! future prices an% %eman%" 8echnolo!y companies J='E to%ay that future prices #ill fall" 8hey S8+CC choose to pro%uce" 8herefore& lo#er prices or lo#er ability to pay is ='8 an issue of any concern" /.5.5 Rising manufacturing productivity /.5.9 &ncreasing share of services in economic output 3onsistent #ith the increasin! share of services in employment& the share of services in output has also been increasin!" 5. Source 6"> .ffect on innovation an% entrepreneurship Ee$ll continue to see an eAponential increase in innovation" /.9.' 2tart*ups are cheaper ,* tiny company #ith a %oIen people has access to infrastructure that only the lar!est multinational coul% affor% 15 years a!o&- 7arian says" ,Lou can put in 7oice over +P& you have @oo!le Docs& Eiki& email& social net#orks& chat" 8hese tools #oul% have been ri%iculously eApensive 15 years a!o an% no# they are free& ubi0uitous" So you can co1or%inate pro%uctive activity !lobally at a very lo# cost"$$ (http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:varians1analysis:story1e>fr!abA1 122>16DBF6D65 A .A'' research report for the $auffman Boundation by E. ;. Reddy and Robert Jitany foun% that even thou!h the total number of ne# businesses foun%e% annually in the Knite% States has remaine% lar!ely stea%y& the total number of people employe% by them at start1up has been %eclinin! in recent years" 8his coul% be because mo%ern business technolo!y lets a company start leaner an% stay leaner as it !ro#s" (race a!ainst machine) Shortly after the Cu%%ites be!an smashin! the machinery that they thou!ht threatene% their jobs& the economist Davi% 5icar%o& #ho initially thou!ht that a%vances in technolo!y #oul% benefit all& %evelope% an abstract mo%el that sho#e% the possibility of technolo!ical unemployment" 8he basic i%ea #as that at some point& the e0uilibrium #a!es for #orkers mi!ht fall belo# the level nee%e% for subsistence" * rational human #oul% see no point in takin! a job at a #a!e that lo#& so the #orker #oul% !o unemploye% an% the #ork #oul% be %one by a machine Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5/ instea%" ( (5ace a!ainst the machine) 6"B .ffect on labour share Cabour share has much to %o #ith bar!ainin! po#er" /ar!ainin! po#er is relate% both to mar!inal pro%uctivity an% relative scarcitiy of a resource" 8here are some su!!estions that technolo!y mi!ht be re%ucin! labour share Gi"e" their bar!ainin! po#erH" ."! Coukas Jarabarbounis an% /rent =eiman in 8he @lobal Decline of the Cabor Share& ?une 2016& su!!est that ,the %ecrease in the relative price of investment !oo%s& often attribute% to a%vances in information technolo!y an% the computer a!e& in%uce% frms to shift a#ay from labor an% to#ar% capital"- Source /.=.' @or(ers< bargaining po"er significantly reducing =o %oubt there are continuin! effects of 'bamaNs terrible policies but also the rapi% improvement in technolo!y that mean the same output no# nee%s less #orkers" OEorkers feel like they have absolutely no bar!ainin! po#er&O sai% 5obert Mellman& an economist at ?"P" Mor!an 3hase T 3o" (Source)" /.=.. 7ut labour share "as much lo"er in the past 8hat +8 Gan% ultimately roboticsH has a role to play in this is not self1evi%ent" 50 Source /.=./ &ndustries "here significant loss in labour share is occurring /ar!ainin! capacity of labour is re%ucin! most in minin!& transport& manufacturin! an% utilities" Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 55 Source /.=.0 3ost importantlyH labour share is irrelevant ?ust like ine0uality is irrelevant& so also labour share is irrelevant" 8hese are S'3+*C+S8 3'=3.5=S an% #e shoul% not #aste time #orryin! about them" +t %oesn$t matter #hat share of the ,pie- is split bet#een capital an% labour" Ehat matters Gin the broa%& philosophical senseH is that GaH people are free GbH there is justice an% !oo% !overnance& GcH as a result the pie is increasin! an% G%H no one is #orse off" Cet labour an% capital bar!ain in free%om" 8he main thin! is there shoul% be incentives for& an% free%om& to pro%uce an% create #ealth throu!h ne# technolo!y an% innovation" 5obotics an% +8 is entirely positive& the moment people remove their socialist blinkers" 59 6"D .ffect on jobs +t is eApecte% that the forthcomin! improvemens in robotics #ill be accompanie% by the lar!est job1she%%in! episo%e in human history" ?ob creation #ill also occur& but #ill not keep pace #ith job1she%%in!" Much of this net loss of jobs #ill likely be permanent" /y the 2020s it can be reasonably eApecte% that robotics #oul% have mature% an% replace% millions of semi1skille% #orkers across the #orl%& particularly from the %evelopin! #orl%" +n%ustry #oul% have move% back to the %evelope% #orl%" 8he competitive a%vanta!e in robotics #ill likely see the baton of #orl% economic lea%ership pass on to ?apan an% S"." *sia Galon! #ith KS* an% @ermanyH& #hich are currently lea%ers in robotics" ,4arms employe% F0^ of the populationP automation re%uce% it to 5^" 8he chil%ren of farmers #orke% in in%ustry" Ehen automation %estroye% those jobs& their chil%ren became service #orkers2 technicians& mana!ers& etc" .ach step up increase% our pro%uctivity& hence our income an% #ealth" 3an this continue;- (Source) ?obs are not just leavin! 3hina or KS*& they are leavin! the PC*=.8" =o more jobs to pro%uce thin!s like shoes" '=CL %esi!ners of pro%ucts are nee%e%& !iven universal robots an% 6% printers" (see2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch; featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR#b2c+S!?Kok) Ho#ever& there is reason to be more cautious about such claims2 j%oe2 OSome time a!o G+ think in the N>0sH& eAperts pre%icte% that #ith continuin! technolo!ical a%vances an% increase% pro%uctivity& the #ork #eek #oul% shorten to 20 somethin! hours" +nstea%& the opposite happene%" *mericans #ork lon!er hours than ever" 8#o parents must no# #ork just to make en%s meet& #hereas one parent use% to suffice" *mericans& at least the mi%%le class& certainly have seen any real tan!ible benefits of automation" <uite the opposite" =ot to soun% pessimistic& but +Nm not so sure the future #ill be much %ifferent"O (Source) Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5= Ehen robots take our jobs& humans #ill be the ne# 1^" HereNs ho# to fi!ht back 3ichael 7elfioreH The GuardianH 22 March 2014 Eill you be replace% by a machine; 8hereNs nearly a 50150 chance& accor%in! to a recent stu%y by 'Afor% Kniversity researchers #ho foun% that 4B^ of the labor market in the KS alone is at risk of bein! mechaniIe% out of eAistence" *pproAimately B02 jobs thus far hel% by humans are no# threatene% by non1humans& as #e #ere remin%e% by a #i%ely share% report on the stu%y this #eek" +t$s not har% to see #hy" *%vances in robotics an% artificial intelli!ence are brin!in! robots into more an% more #orkplaces" 4or eAample2 *utonomous vehicles no# in %evelopment by just about every major automaker threaten the jobs of truckers an% cabbies" 8he /aAter robot from 5ethink 5obotics is %esi!ne% to #ork si%e1by1si%e #ith human factory supervisors& learnin! ne# tasks on the !o Q somethin! only human #orkers coul% %o previously" 5obotic sur!eons such as those ma%e by +ntuitive Sur!ical an% the open1 source5aven project currently re0uire human sur!eons in the loop& but inroa%s have alrea%y been ma%e into !ivin! these machines autonomy as #ell" Knmanne% aerial vehicles Q as in& %rones Q are !ettin! set for inte!ration into the KS national airspace neAt year& potentially replacin! the jobs of many human pilots" 5> My profession isnNt immune to robotic outsourcin! either" 8he <uill robotic journalist %i!ests facts from ra# %ata& an% spits out fully forme% sports an% business stories" 'h& an% Mark [uckerber! an% .lon Musk are no# backin! Oa computer that thinks like a person eAcept it %oesnNt nee% to eat or sleepO" So thereNs that" 8here$s even a robotic bur!er flipper in the #orks" 8he #ebsite of Momentum Machinesboasts that its slicin!& !rin%in!& fryin! robot can %o Oeverythin! employees can %o eAcept betterO& an% that it #ill O%emocratiIe access to hi!h10uality foo%& makin! it available to the massesO" *ll of #hich be!s the 0uestion2 #ill there be anyone left #ho can affor% those better bur!ers& or #ill everyone be out of #ork; *n% #hat the hell are #e suppose% to %o about the inevitable rise of the machines; 8he march of the #orker %rones does seem inevitable& an% not just into specialiIe% job functions" 8he Penta!onNs ma%1science research arm& Darpa& is currently hostin! theDarpa 5obotics 3hallen!e for the creation of humanoi% robots capable of #orkin! in %isaster areas that are too %an!erous for humans" 8hese all1purpose machines are %esi!ne% to let themselves into buil%in!s an% pick up an% use #hatever tools are at han% there Q in%ee%& to %o the thin!s #e cannot" *t the Darpa trials in Miami a fe# months a!o& + #atche% one of the 1> stru!!lin! Nbots stare for 10 minutes at a %oor han%le& apparently uncertain #hat to %o #ith it" 8he machine looked capable enou!h2 t#o arms& t#o le!s& about siA feet tall& a hea% stu%%e% #ith sensors" /ut it #as %efinitely lackin! in the brains %epartment" Still& the pro!ram mana!er at Darpa in char!e of the operation ima!ines future versions servin! as in1home ai%es for the el%erly or %isable%" 8he robots are in the primitive& baby1step sta!es ri!ht no#& but thin!s can move 0uickly #hen it comes to Darpa robotics pro!rams" *utonomous vehicles& for eAample& #ent from bein! unable to complete a course throu!h open %esert in the Darpa @ran% 3hallen!e& to %eftly navi!atin! simulate% city streets Q complete #ith human1%riven traffic Q in three short years" 8hree KS states an% the District of 3olumbia have alrea%y passe% le!islation re!ulatin! robotic cars on public roa%s" Sooner or later& it seems& robots #ill have sta!e% a takeover not only of our #orkplaces& an% streets& but also of our homes" Ehat then; *s early as the 1F>0s& *rthur 3 3larke& professional visionary an% inventor of the communications satellite& pre%icte% the en% of menial labor Gmental as #ell as manualH& %ue to mechaniIation Gan%& more %isturbin!ly& bio1 en!ineere% apesH" +n his essay 8he Eorl% of 2001& ori!inally publishe% in 7o!ue an% reprinte% in his book 8he 7ie# from Seren%ip& 3larke #rote2 Othe main result of all these %evelopments #ill be to eliminate FF percent of human activity ` if #e look at humanity as it is constitute% to%ay"O Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5? 'ur salvation& in 3larkeNs vie#& #ill lie in our lookin! to#ar% loftier pursuits than all those kin%s of jobs that machines #ill take over2 &n the day*after*tomorro" society there "ill be no place for anyone as ignorant as the average mid*t"entieth*century college graduate" +f it seems an impossible !oal to brin! the #hole population of the planet up to superuniversity levels& remember that a fe# centuries a!o it #oul% have seeme% e0ually unthinkable that everybo%y #oul% be able to rea%" 8o%ay #e have to set our si!hts much hi!her& an% it is not unrealistic to %o so" 'f course this %epen%s on our valuin!& as a society& in%ivi%ual kno#le%!e& creatin! thinkin!& curiosity an% all the other thin!s that elevate us above the level of machines" +t %epen%s on our fosterin! the kin% of society that not only frees people from menial labor& but also enables them to reach their full human potential Q not just !o be!!in! for #ant of a lousy job" Ho# many #ays can a cook contribute to society other than flippin! bur!ers; Ehat can a sports#riter %o beyon% comin! up #ith en%less variations on Obeat&O toppe%O& OoutshotO an% O%efeate%O; +tNs about time to fin% out" /.>.' ,erived demand for resources and labour ,Machines ` !uIIle oil an% re0uire spare parts just like any other creature" Machines M%oM consume !oo%s an% materials Q creatin! consumer %eman% an% stimulatin! the economy"- (Source) 9A 5obert *tkinson /rynjolfsson an% Mc*fee mistakenly consi%er only first or%er effects of automation #here a machine replaces a #orker" Ho#ever& there are also secon% or%er effects that must be consi%ere% #hen evaluatin! the true impact of technolo!y on jobs" 3onsi%er an or!aniIation that implements automation lea%in! to cost re%uctions" 8hose %ollars flo# back into to the economy either throu!h lo#er prices& hi!her #a!es for remainin! #orkers& or hi!her profits& #hich in turn stimulates %eman% that lea%s to employment increases in other sectors" *n% for anyone #ho says that people #oul%n$t be able to fin% thin!s to spen% their money on& just !o to a shoppin! mall an% !ive the avera!e shopper Z25&000" 8hey #ill clearly fin% lots of thin!s to spen% it on" +t shoul% also be pointe% out that virtually all economic stu%ies analysin! the relationship bet#een pro%uctivity an% jobs foun% either no impacts or positive impacts on total jobs in the mo%erate term" *s the '.3D has state%2 Historically& the income1!eneratin! effects of ne# technolo!ies have prove% more po#erful than the labor1%isplacin! effects2 technolo!ical pro!ress has been accompanie% not only by hi!her output an% pro%uctivity& but also by hi!her overall employment" /ut #ait& isn$t it %ifferent this time; ?ust look at all the ne# cool technolo!ies rea%y to take a#ay our jobs2 %riverless cars& artificial intelli!ence& an% of course& robots /ut this time is actually not %ifferent" =e# innovations bein! intro%uce% #ill lar!ely boost pro%uctivity in information1base% functions or routiniIe% functions& but not jobs that involve interactin! #ith people Ge"!"& nursin! homes& police an% fireH or %oin! non1routine physical tasks Ge"!"& construction or janitorial servicesH" +n a%%ition& ne# technolo!ical !ro#th #ill create ne# in%ustries an% business mo%els that #ill promote economic an% job !ro#th across the boar%" 8he reality is that& far from bein! %oome% by an eAcess of technolo!y& #e are actually at risk of bein! hel% back from too little innovation" (5obert *tkinson http2::###"i%easlaboratory"com:2016:0F:0F:robert1atkinson1robots1are1not1the1 enemy: /.>.. 3any ne" +obs created by technology +n or%er to make those robots #ork& companies nee% people for pro!rammin!& maintenance an% repair" (Source) ,Ee are !ifte% #ith the vision of our times an% curse% #ith the temptation to eAtrapolate that vision into the future" Ho# coul% our farmer kno# that in 2016 humans #oul% be pai% to make movies& pick up !arba!e& #rite online& buil% robots& clean bathrooms& en!ineer rockets& lea% !ui%e% tours& %rive trucks& play in !ara!e ban%s& bre# artisanal beer& or #rite co%e;- (Source) *utomation entails hu!e upfront investments" 3ompanies that invest in automation have to buil% or!aniIations to ensure stea%y supplies of hi!h10uality materials& improve an% maintain machinery& an% capture sufficiently lar!e market shares to achieve economies of scale" 8hese investments in the %evelopment an% utiliIation of automate% facilities create lots of hi!h1value1a%%e% jobs& especially for companies that& because of their investments& can !ro# lar!e by pro%ucin! hi!her 0uality& lo#er cost pro%ucts than the competition" (Source) Error! 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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9' /.>...' $inds of ne" +obs created computer %esi!ners& buil%ers& maintenance people& application %esi!ners& improvers" =ote that these are almost all hi!h tech" * @K*5*=8..D ?'/ *E*+8S2 O8he shorta!e of people #ho kno# ho# to buil%& pro!ram& maintain& an% repair robots has !otten so severe that& in some parts of the country& 0ualifie% can%i%ates can practically #rite their o#n ticket"O (Source) 8echnolo!y & #hen unleashe% in a competitive market& has al#ays unleashe% ne# jobs& in%ustries& an% professions" .Aamples of ne# jobs inclu%e those create% by technolo!y companies e"!" !oo!le& etc" Ojob creation in the future #ill ,center on three kin%s of #ork2 solvin! unstructure% problems (eAample2 performin! %elicate sur!ery)& #orkin! #ith ne# information (eAample2 analyIin! marketin! %ata) an% carryin! out non1routine manual tasks (eAample2 movin! furniture)"-O (Source) *n% of course& more computer:robot infrastructure relate% jobs" /.>...' Number of ne" +obs created ,8hey count 6"5 million #orkers %irectly involve% ,in creatin! computer infrastructure- \ soft#are %evelopers& systems analysts an% %ata eAperts"- (Source) 8here is apparently a ,job1creation ratio of 6"> jobs for every robot %eploye%- (Source) /.>...' &ndustrial robotics has created /5AHAAA ne" +obs Do in%ustrial robots really have a positive impact on employment; 'f course they %o an% there are over 50 years of %ata provin! that to be the case" 8here are at least 650&000 people %irectly employe% by an% in the in%ustrial robotics in%ustry" 8here are ancillary provi%ers of components& soft#are an% other services for robots an% installations but these jobs are har% to 0uantify" (Source) 9. (Source) /.>./ 7ut +ob creation slo"er than +ob loss Ee are bein! afflicte% #ith a ne# %isease of #hich some rea%ers may not yet have hear% the name& but of #hich they #ill hear a !reat %eal in the years to come 1 namely& technolo!ical unemployment" 8his means unemployment %ue to our %iscovery of means of economisin! the use of labour outrunnin! the pace at #hich #e can fin% ne# uses for labour" 1 ?ohn Maynar% Jeynes& 1F60 Ho#ever& there is consi%erable evi%ence that jobs aren$t keepin! pace" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9/ Source2 +t can be ar!ue% that much of this is %ue to ba% KS policy2 +n the last three %eca%es the !overnment has pursue% policies that have the effect of re%istributin! income up#ar% so that the !ains from !ro#th are not broa%ly share%" 8hese policies inclu%e a hi!h %ollar policy that makes K"S" manufacturin! !oo%s less competitive %omestically an% internationally& a policy of selective protectionism that lar!ely protects the most hi!hly e%ucate% professionals Ge"!" %octors an% la#yersH from forei!n competition& an% a policy of shiftin! tens of billions of %ollars each year to Eall Street banks throu!h Otoo bi! to failO insurance provi%e% at Iero cost by the !overnment" +f this ne# !eneration of robots en%s up makin! lar!e se!ments of the population #orse off& it #ill be the result of %eliberate policies" +t is not the fault of the robots" (Source) 8he !iant leap in unemployment numbers %ates from a very specific event& not from a lon!1run process that has been %isplacin! #orkers over time" +n 200B& the unemployment rate #as 4">" /y 200F& it #as F">& an% remains very hi!h" Ehat happene% #asn$t a su%%en rush of robots onto the scene& but a financial catastrophe that nearly tanke% the !lobal economy" (Source) /.>.0 3ore lo"*paying +obs "ill be created *s technolo!y re#ar%s the very hi!hly e%ucate% an% replaces the mi%%le class& there is an inevitable tren% to#ar%s more lo#er1pai% jobs in the services sector 1 that are currently too %ifficult to be replace% by robots" 8his implies an inevitable increase in ine0uality" .ven the poorest #ill have all amenities an% +1phones& but theyNll earn proportionately less than before" 8he KS /ureau of Cabor Statistics estimates that amon! the most rapi%ly !ro#in! occupational cate!ories over the neAt ten years #ill be ,healthcare support occupations- Gnursin! ai%es& or%erlies& an% atten%antsH an% ,foo% preparation an% servin! #orkers- Q that is& over#helmin!ly lo#1#a!e jobs 90 +n short& +38 creates an economy that is both ,hi1tech- an% ,hi1touch- Q a #orl% of robots an% apps& but also of fashion& %esi!n& lan%& an% face1to1face services" 8his economy is the result of our remarkable ability to solve the problem of pro%uction an% automate a#ay the nee% for continual labor" (2ource) /.>.5 $inds of +obs that are in the process of going ,+nvisible- robots& such as *ethon$s 8u!s& look like more pernicious job eaters& rea%y to take over much of the #ork that hospital porters %o to%ay" Mr 8hrun offers Jiva$s #arehouse robots as an eAample of a similar labour1replacin! system" *n% soft#are #ill take over a lot of the tasks carrie% out by humans sittin! in front of screens" +n a recent stu%y of the susceptibility of jobs to computerisation carrie% out by 3arl /ene%ikt 4rey an% Michael 'sborne at 'Afor% Kniversity& many of the job cate!ories at !reatest risk involve% har%ly any manual labour at all" @iven the %oornail %umbness of machines& ho# can they take over so many mo%erately skille% jobs; 'ne of the ans#ers is that if you have enou!h %oornails an% enou!h %ata& there are #ays of simulatin! smartness that are provin! !oo% enou!h to solve an ever !reater ran!e of problems& an% that problems restricte% to the #orl% of %ata are much more tractable than those that re0uire manipulatin! thin!s in the real #orl%" *n%re# =! of Stanfor% is a pioneer an% a%vocate of this sort of ,machine learnin!-& a pro%uct of the tren%s to#ar%s ever cheaper computin! po#er an% ever more #i%esprea% %i!itisation that Mr /rynjolfsson an% Mr Mc*fee %escribe" Eorkin! #ith @oo!le& Mr =! came up #ith a system that& usin! 1>&000 processors to look at a si!nificant fraction of a vi%eo on Lou8ube& came to ,reco!nise- cats #ith no prior kno#le%!e that there #as such a thin!" @oo!le uses relate% approaches to tackle a number of more practical problems& such as machine translation an% voice reco!nition" +t #oul% be surprisin! if it %i% not apply the same sort of thinkin! to its ne# ac0uisitions in robotics& #hether they are use% in manufacturin!& in services or for that matter in a!riculture or construction" Mana!in! chan!in! tasks in a chan!in! #orl% means that many #orkplaces #ill still nee% humans& but as #orkplaces become more efficient the number of people employe% #ill shrink in the lon! run" Eilliam =or%haus& a Lale economist& has sho#n Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 95 that even thou!h the #orl% has become much better lit in an ever1#i%enin! variety of #ays over the past fe# centuries& the number of people #ho provi%e the ever better li!htin! has %ecline%" 8here is& in the en%& only so much li!ht that people can consume" Many other human nee%s& too& can probably be satisfie% #ith less labour in the future& thou!h that #ill take time" (Source) ,Peter Diaman%is sai% robots #ill also be responsible for the loss of 50 percent of the jobs in the service sector in 10 years as they #ill compete #ith importe% labor sources as the cost of labor #ill %rop to just the cost of po#er"- (Source) /.>.9 ;obs "hich have gone technolo!y is some%ay likely to a%vance to the point #here the majority of the routine jobs hel% by avera!e #orkers #ill be automate%" 8hat is a lot of jobs\probably most jobs" 8#o thir%s of our population %oes not have a colle!e %e!ree& an% even many colle!e !ra%uates have jobs that can be broken %o#n into relatively routine tasks that #ill be susceptible to soft#are automation al!orithms an% eApert systems" 8his is somethin! that + think coul% potentially happen in the neAt couple of %eca%es" O2ourceP (Source) /.>.9.' Jibrary Self1check out 5eference librarians2 Eant to be pro%uctive; 4or!et the library" Kse !oo!le scholar:electronic %atabases O+n a recent stu%y& @oo!le foun% stu%ents #ho use% its search function ans#ere% 0uestions three times 0uicker than those #ho use% the library"O http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:varians1analysis:story1 e>fr!abA1122>16DBF6D65 99 =orth 3arolina State Kniversity this month intro%uce% a hi!h1tech library #here robots \ Obook/otsO \ retrieve books #hen stu%ents re0uest them& instea% of humans" 8he libraryNs 1"5 million books are no lon!er %isplaye% on shelvesP theyNre kept in 1D&000 metal bins that re0uire one1ninth the space" (Source) /.>.9.' 2tevedores Steve%ores replace%" 8his& a!ain& is just the be!innin!" 'nly 2016 no#" http2::###"portbris"com"au:ne#s1me%ia:port1of1brisbane1a1snapshot:a1mo%ern1port /.>.9.. 3ining truc( drivers http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:rise1of1the1machines:story1e>fr!>I>1 122>2F101401B http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:business:minin!1ener!y:bhp1unveils1robot1 trucks:story1e>fr!F%f1122>50BDDBB14 /.>.9./ &phone "or(ers 1 million robots installe%2 http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:business:#orl%:robots1 threaten1chinas1#orkers:story1e>fr!F0o1122>10>4B>51D /.>.9.' @arehousing "or(ers See2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR6KA[D?1HiP. *maIon has purchase% Jiva systems" ,* #arehouse e0uippe% #ith Jiva robots can han%le up to four times as many or%ers as a similar unautomate% #arehouse& #here #orkers mi!ht spen% as much as B0 percent of their time #alkin! about to retrieve !oo%s" G3oinci%entally or not& *maIon bou!ht Jiva soon after a press report reveale% that #orkers at one of the retailer$s !iant #arehouses often #alke% more than 10 miles a %ay"H" Ehile the robots are the company$s poster boys& its lesser1kno#n innovations lie in the compleA al!orithms that !ui%e the robots$ movements an% %etermine #here in the #arehouse pro%ucts Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9= are store%" 8hese al!orithms help make the system a%aptable" +t can learn& for eAample& that a certain pro%uct is sel%om or%ere%& so it shoul% be store% in a remote area" - (Source) /.>.9.' 7an(s *8M machines replace% the tellers" /.>.9.' 3c,onald<s cashiers B000 cashiers replace%2 http2::ne#s"cnet"com:mc%onal%s1hires1B0001touch1screen1 cashiers:D60111BF6DS1051200>6B6211"html /.>.9.' Telephone directory assistance *utomate%& an%:or throu!h the internet" /.>.9.' ,atacentre &T staff +8 tren%s of eliminatin! +8 %atacenters an% consoli%atin! on the clou%" /.>.= ;obs "hich are next in line =ote that computers haven$t really become ,intelli!ent-" /.>.=.' 6verall analysis Mi%%le tier jobs Gbank teller& airport check1in clerk& travel a!ent& call centre Gthrou!h 7oice technolo!yHH have been the fastest to !o" O@ar%ener& hair%resser& or home health ai%eO have been relatively safe jobs& so far" 'f course& these jobs pay virtually nothin!" +t can be easier to automate the #ork of a bookkeeper& bank teller& or semi1skille% factory #orker than a !ar%ener& hair%resser& or home health ai%e" +n particular& over the past 25 years& physical activities that re0uire a %e!ree of physical coor%ination an% sensory perception have proven more resistant to automation than basic information processin!& a phenomenon kno#n as Moravec$s Para%oA$" 4or instance& many types of clerical #ork have been automate%& an% millions of people interact #ith robot bank tellers an% airport ticket a!ents each %ay" More recently& call center #ork 1 #hich #as #i%ely offshore% to +n%ia& the Philippines& or other lo#1#a!e nations in the 1FF0s 1 has increasin!ly been replace% by automate% voice response systems that can reco!niIe an increasin!ly lar!e %omain1specific vocabulary an% even complete sentences" (5ace *!ainst the Machine) *s Sin!er points out& the or%er in #hich jobs are automate% respective to one another may be 0uite surprisin! GSin!er 200F& pp" 160Q162H" 4or instance& he suspects that human hair%ressers may stay #ith us for a#hile because of their respective skill set& inclu%in! the ability to put customers at ease GSin!er 200F& p" 161H" (Source2 5obots an% the chan!in! #orkforce& ?ason /orenstein & *+ T Soc G2011H 2>2DBQF6 /.>.=.. AdministrationCbureaucrats Ee can eApect automation of a%ministration an% #on$t nee% too much mi%%le mana!ement in the future" 9> /.>.=.' Call centres and helpdes( OKS firm +Psoft has recently establishe% an *ustralian office to sell automation soft#are that allo#s robots to replace humans in Cevel 0 an% Cevel 1 tech support roles such as help%esk" +t alrea%y supplies virtual #orkers for companies such as PfiIer an% *uto%esk& an% claims to have a%%resse% more than 1B billion customer 99inci%ents$$ #ithout human intervention" 8he company recently struck a %eal #ith +n%ian outsourcin! !iant +nfosys to sell more virtual +8 en!ineers to ans#er 0ueries such as #hen computer users nee% to have their pass#or%s chan!e% by their company$s help%esk"O (Source) /.>.=.. Ja"yers =ot lon! a!o + ha% thou!ht that le!al outsourcin! to +n%ia may !ro#& possibly in the area of le!al %iscovery" /ut machines no# %o that MK3H cheaper2 * March 2011 story by ?ohn Markoff in the =e# Lork 8imes hi!hli!hte% ho# heavily computers$ pattern reco!nition abilities are alrea%y bein! eAploite% by the le!al in%ustry #here& accor%in! to one estimate& movin! from human to %i!ital labor %urin! the %iscovery process coul% let one la#yer %o the #ork of 500" +n ?anuary& for eAample& /lackstone Discovery of Palo *lto& 3alif"& helpe% analyIe 1"5 million %ocuments for less than Z100&000" 94rom a le!al staffin! vie#point& it means that a lot of people #ho use% to be allocate% to con%uct %ocument revie# are no lon!er able to be bille% out&$ sai% /ill Herr& #ho as a la#yer at a major chemical company use% to muster au%itoriums of la#yers to rea% %ocuments for #eeks on en%" 9People !et bore%& people !et hea%aches" 3omputers %on$t"$ (Source2 5ace *!ainst the Machine) /.>.=./ Retail Self service checkouts& laser bar co%e scanners for rin!in! up sales& robotic D7D stores G5e%boA"H& streamin! music& vi%eo& soft#are" 94ace to face interaction in retail is lar!ely %isappearin!" 54+D for inventory an% or%er mana!ement as #ell as returns processin!& automate% #arehouses& better inventory control mana!ement systems have all re%uce% the hea%count nee%e% for a retail operation (see commentators here) *n% an article the same month in the Cos *n!eles 8imes by *lena Semuels hi!hli!hte% that %espite the fact that closin! a sale often re0uires compleA communication& the retail in%ustry has been automatin! rapi%ly" +n an in%ustry that employs nearly 1 in 10 *mericans an% has lon! been a reliable job !enerator& companies increasin!ly are lookin! to pe%%le more pro%ucts #ith fe#er employees" 1 7irtual assistants are takin! the place of customer service representatives" Jiosks an% self1service machines are re%ucin! the nee% for checkout clerks" 7en%in! machines no# sell iPo%s& bathin! suits& !ol% coins& sun!lasses an% raIorsP some #ill even %ispense prescription %ru!s an% me%ical marijuana to consumers #illin! to submit to a fin!erprint scan" *n% shoppers are fin%in! information on touch screen kiosks& rather than talkin! to atten%ants" 8he (machines) cost a fraction of brick1an%1mortar stores" 8hey also reflect chan!in! consumer buyin! habits" 'nline shoppin! has ma%e *mericans comfortable #ith the i%ea of buyin! all manner of pro%ucts #ithout the help of a salesman or clerk" (5ace a!ainst the machine) Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9? /.>.=.0 7utchers EabattoirsF 8his is a very %an!erous job" 8here is no %oubt that abattoirs #ill soon !et robotise%" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvRKr74c0!HSC<UtR50 /.>.=.5 ,octors G@Ps:sur!eonsH Dia!nostic %evices Ghan%1hel% Q #hich %o a number of testsH #ill soon be there that can %ia!nose most of our problems /.88.5 than %octors can" https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRKKE0CoS'S+kTfeatureRc41overvie#1 vlTlistRPC4F.3**/6>D56.4.D at 12 minutes Eatson is alrea%y !ettin! better than %octors in S'M. cases" .Apect it to outsmart %octors in *CC cases in a fe# years no#" @oo%bye pathetic @Ps_ Eelcome lifesavin! *+ an% robots" O+Nve ha% a couple of patients #here Eatson foun% thin!s that + ha% misse%&O says Dr" =eil Mehta& the staff physician #hoNs lea%in! the 3levelan% 3linicNs en% of the Eatson project" O+t %oesnNt #ork every time& but itNs !ettin! better"O 'ne eAample is a patient sufferin! from sleep apnea1like symptoms" Lears earlier& this patient ha% a bloo% !as test that #oul% have confirme% the %ia!nosis& but the test results #ere hi%%en in a har%1to1fin% section of the me%ical recor%" Eithout Eatson& Mehta says he never #oul% have seen the result"- (Source) HKM*= D'38'5S M+SS 50 P.5 3.=8 '4 3*=3.5S" E*8S'= '=CL M+SS.S 10 P.5 3.=8" O+t #oul% take at least 1>0 hours of rea%in! a #eek just to keep up #ith ne# me%ical kno#le%!e as itNs publishe%& let alone consi%er its relevance or apply it practically" EatsonNs ability to absorb this information faster than any human shoul%& in theory& fiA a fla# in the current healthcare mo%el" EellpointNs Samuel =essbaum has claime% that& in tests& EatsonNs successful %ia!nosis rate for lun! cancer is F0 percent& compare% to 50 percent for human %octors"O (2ource) *rtificial intelli!ence& ho#ever& nee%s close shepher%in! since even the smartest computer is still only at the level of a pre1schooler2 ,+n the ne# stu%y& researchers %eci%e% to test out just ho# close tohuman intelli!ence *+ has come" 8hey a%ministere% the verbal portions of a stan%ar% +< test calle% the Eechsler Preschool an% Primary Scale of +ntelli!ence 8est to 3oncept=et4" 8he machineNs score #as similar to that of a 41year1ol% chil%" /ut this #as no or%inary chil%2 its intelli!ence #as all over the map" 8he pro!ram score% hi!hly on the vocabulary an% similarity portions of the test& but floun%ere% on comprehension sections& #hich are heavy on the O#hyO 0uestions" O+f a chil% ha% scores that varie% this much& it mi!ht be a symptom that somethin! #as #ron!&O Sloan sai% in a statement" (2ource) /.>.=.9 Receptionists In another 20 years expect most office receptionists to be replaced. http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRa4SD!M4urm*H =A /.>.=.' Call centres 8he en% of +n%ian call centres is ni!h" O.liIa has replace% +n%ia$s 8ata 3onsultin! Services"O (Source) *lso see this2 +f +n%ia canNt pro%uce *=L8H+=@ that others buy& if +n%ia canNt sell *=L S.57+3. that others #ant& if +n%ia has no 5*E M*8.5+*C that others nee%& an% if +n%ia refuses to improve !overnance:policy systems then the '=CL resource +n%ia #ill have to offer is its most talente% brains 1 #hich the Eest #ill 0uickly snap up Gor #hich may still be use% throu!h +nfosys etc"H& further impoverishin! +n%ia" Eatson #ill %isplace a very si!nificant proportion of +n%ian call centres2 Oas many as >1 percent of all telephone support calls currently fail because human support1center employees are unable to !ive people correct or complete information Eatson& +"/"M" says& #ill be use% to help human operators& but the system can also be use% in a ,self1service- mo%e& in #hich customers can interact %irectly #ith the pro!ram by typin! 0uestions in a Eeb bro#ser or by speakin! to a speech reco!nition pro!ram"O (2ource) /ut many may remain since computers haven$t really become ,intelli!ent-" /.>.=.' 8harmacies Pharmacies #ill feature a sin!le pill1%ispensin! robot in the back #hile the pharmacists focus on patient consultin!" (Source) /.>.=.. Bruit harvesters Fruit harvester jobs are on the line. http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR74Hn4!0v+Jk an% http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRnm6ES5y6k3k 4ruit an% ve!etable pickin! #ill continue to be robotiIe% until no humans pick outsi%e of specialty farms" (Source) /.>.=.' ,usting crops "ith pesticides ,+n ?apan %rones %ust crops- (Source) /.>.=.' Cleaners the more %eAterous chores of cleanin! in offices an% schools #ill be taken over by late1ni!ht robots& startin! #ith easy1to1%o floors an% #in%o#s an% eventually !ettin! to toilets" (Source) /.>.=.' 8ac(age delivery /y %rones" ,* Palo *lto& 3alif"& start1up calle% Matternet #ants to establish a net#ork of %rones that #ill transport small& ur!ent packa!es& like those for me%icine"- (Source) /.>.=.' 2ecurity guards 8hrou!h satellites& remote cameras an% %rones& much security #ork can be centralise%" /.>.=.. AssemblyCpac(aging "or(ers Most assembly:packa!in! #orkers$ jobs are likely to !o pretty soon& in the neAt 5 years at most2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRM.7I20V2Jo! Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com =' Spee%y bots able to lift 150 poun%s all %ay lon! #ill retrieve boAes& sort them& an% loa% them onto trucks" (Source) /.>.=./ Barmers 4armers http2::###"youtube"com:#atch; vR/f=/l/628@MTlistRPC0004F6/B/.0F/FD5 (+ntelli!ent machines are alrea%y in place) http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRnm6ES5y6k3k /.>.=.' ,airy farmers Erobotic dairyF See2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvREHSHcHDfAy# /.>.=.. 8ilots O.ven the 4165Ns champions conce%e that it #ill probably be the last manne% strike fi!hter aircraft the Eest #ill buil%"O 8housan%s of pilots almost certain to lose their jobs Gthis #oul% also inclu%e passen!er planes in the lon!er runH" http2::###"economist"com:no%e:1DF5D4DB /.>.=.' Binancial services and financial mar(et traders 5obotic tra%ers are no# actively use%" 94inancial services have become a !reater share of @DP for post1reality economies" Much of it is automate%& con%ucte% by robots$ Ga commentator hereH" +f you are a !reat trea%er& you can convert your insi!hts into a pro!ram #hich can then automatically buy an% sell" (See2 http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:business:#ealth:hi!h1fre0uency1tra%es1 un%ermine1the1system:story1e>fr!ac>1122>4F>>2BD>1) ,8hink hi!h1spee% tra%in! on Eall Street" 8he li!htnin!10uick tra%es account for most of the volume on the major stock eAchan!es& yet the action is %riven by computers an% soft#are communicatin! #ith other computers an% soft#are& supervise% an% monitore% by at most a relative han%ful of hi!hly compensate% #orkers" G*s a Eharton School report put it& ,+n the time it takes to rea% this sentence& tens of thousan%s of hi!h1spee%& computer1automate% transactions can occur"-H- (Source) /.>.=.' Construction industry 4rom 11 minutes you see #hy construction in%ustry #ill soon be revolutionise% #ith flyin! robots that buil% massive skyscrapers" http2::e%ition"cnn"com:2012:06:04:opinion:te%1kumar1flyin!1robots 4ull fle%!e% major robots are not bein! %esi!ne% to buil% entire homes Q much stron!er than normal homes Q #ithout any labour" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch; vRehnIf@P>s04 /.>.=.' ,rummersC musicians 5obotic ban%s are no# actively playin! ban%s Gjointly #ith humansH" 8he first 4lyin! robots playin! ?ames /on% music" *!ain& somethin! to be seen to be believe%" https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRSsKe@31D%yk /.>.=.' Age carers E2ocial Assistive RobotsF Social *ssistive 5obots are rapi%ly comin!2 See this" =. /.>.=.' 1ousemaids =ee% a housemai%:helper; 8his is !ettin! close& but another 20 years an% theyNll be super1functional" .n% of the en%less ar!uments #ith the mai% #ho never comes in time" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR7.CIj>Ey!6L /.>.=.' 2hip repairers Eunder"aterF 5obots are no# bein! create% to %o this job" http2::#hatsneAt"blo!s"cnn"com:2012:10:10:ho#1i1learne%1to1make1un%er#ater1 robots: /.>.=.' @aste disposal *utomatic sortin!:processin! is likely to become more common" /.>.=.' Truc( drivers 8he hi!h#ay le!s of lon!1haul truckin! routes #ill be %riven by robots embe%%e% in truck cabs" (Source) +t #oul% be harsh to !eneralise& but +& for one& #oul% be glad to be ri% of truck %rivers 1 #ho are often eAtremely rash& an% after %ama!in! property& %eny liability Q puttin! the common citiIen in !reat risk" /.>.=.' Taxi drivers http2::###"economist"com:blo!s:schumpeter:2016:0D:%riverless1cars; fsrcRscn:fb:#l:bl:ne#leaf +n fact& it #oul% be !oo% if taAi %rivers #ere replace% #ith self1%riven cars& !iven the terrible reputation they$ve %evelope%" /.>.=.' Astronauts https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR0eDE[Fjk5<o /.>.> ;obs "hich are mostly safe *lthou!h a number of other jobs #ill make use of +8 in some #ay& they #ill use it lar!ely in an assistin! role& #ith smaller %irect %isplacement" ,Problem is& home health care is an occupation that has one of the hi!hest concentrations of lo#1pai% jobs set to !ro# by 2020& accor%in! to calculations by the .conomic Policy +nstitute" *t least 45 percent of all employees #orkin! in farmin!& personal care& buil%in! an% !roun%s maintenance& an% health1care support earn at or belo# poverty #a!es" 8hese jobs often come #ithout retirement an% health1care benefits"- (Source) ?obs that %eal #ith unstructure% environments are likely to remain2 ,people are still far better at %ealin! #ith chan!es in their environment an% reactin! to uneApecte% events" ,People an% robots #orkin! to!ether can happen much more 0uickly than robots simply replacin! humans&- he (?ohn Ceonar%& a professor of en!ineerin! at M+8 an% a member of its 3omputer Science an% *rtificial +ntelli!ence Caboratory G3S*+CHP says" ,8hat$s not !oin! to happen in my lifetime at a massive scale" 8he semiautonomous taAi #ill still have a %river"- (Source) /.>.>.' &T related +N% stron!ly recommen% that youn! people start takin! 3oursera courses in *+ or any other technolo!y that interests them" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com =/ /.>.>.. 8lumbers /.>.>./ Electricians /.>.>.0 Construction industry "or(ers /.>.>.5 1airdressers /.>.>.9 Gardeners /.>.>.= 6ld age carers and nurses /.>.>.> $ey government agencies EpoliceH +usticeH defenceF /.>.>.? Comedians +f you are a really !oo% artist:come%ian:sin!er& you too #ill %o #ell" 6"F 8he flourishin! of creativity 8he 5obotic *!e #ill be the a!e of creativity" Eith routine jobs out of the #ay& people #ill be re#ar%e% for creativity" 8he rich #ill have plenty of time to pay for entertainment by live artists an% to !o to art !alleries an% music sho#s" 8his #ill be the main !ro#th in%ustry" =o matter ho# !oo% computers !et at art& there are thin!s that are uni0uely human Q relate% to spirituality an% consciousness& #hich cannot be replicate% by computers Gnor is there any nee% for them to %o soH" +n this talk http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+& Michio Jaku eAplains the kin% of creativity that #ill succee%" /.?.'.' Creative artistsH "riters and entertainers /.?.'.. Exercise and fitness trainers /.?.'./ &nterior designers /.?.'.0 !oga teachers /.?.'.5 2piritual gurus /.?.'.9 8sychologists and social "or(ers 6"10 8he challen!e for unskille% youth 8he solution& in my tentative opinion& is !oin! to be in the services sector in areas #here computers:+8:robotics #ill take lon!er to penetrate" 8hat #ill re0uire S'48 SJ+CCS amon! the less 0ualifie% youth& an ability to relate to others& to care for others" 8hey #ill have to make themselves useful to others& not just mechanically capable of operatin! machines Gfor such jobs #ill no lon!er eAistH" Eith the a!ein! population carin! skills #ill be in !reat %eman%" /ut only !oo% carers #ill be in %eman%" Some carers #ill turn out to be criminals or other#ise %isintereste% in care an% #e #oul%nNt #ant them insi%e our homes" +f ba% inci%ents occur& people #ill s#itch to robots even in this area" ?apan has alrea%y starte% usin! robots for this purpose" /a% carers can& ho#ever& !et jobs in other fiel%s such as !ar%enin!& restaurants& or creative in%ustries" 6"11 .ffect on #a!es 8here #ill be jobs in the future" /oth hi!h payin! an% lo# payin! ones" +t is likely that the ones in the mi%%le #ill !o" =0 ,Problem is& home health care is an occupation that has one of the hi!hest concentrations of lo#1pai% jobs set to !ro# by 2020& accor%in! to calculations by the .conomic Policy +nstitute" *t least 45 percent of all employees #orkin! in farmin!& personal care& buil%in! an% !roun%s maintenance& an% health1care support earn at or belo# poverty #a!es" 8hese jobs often come #ithout retirement an% health1care benefits" ,(Source) /.''.' Bact% Relative share of "ages in G,8 decline http2::blo!s"reuters"com:feliA1salmon:2012:0F:2>:chart1of1the1%ay1the1lon!1%ecline1of1 labor: O'ver the past 40 years& #eekly #a!es for those #ith a hi!h school %e!ree have fallen an% #a!es for those #ith a hi!h school %e!ree an% some colle!e have sta!nate%" 'n the other han%& colle!e1e%ucate% #orkers have seen si!nificant !ains& #ith the bi!!est !ains !oin! to those #ho have complete% !ra%uate trainin!O" Ehat chance %o most +n%ians 1 #ithout #orl% class colle!e e%ucation 1 have in tomorro#Ns #orl% economy; (5ace *!ainst the Machine) O8he link bet#een hi!her pro%uctivity an% people$s #a!es an% salaries #as severe% \the income of the top 1 percent nearly 0ua%ruple% from 1FBF to 200B& #hile the typical family$s barely bu%!e%"O ('bama in a speech on 24 ?uly 2016) Source2 http2::economistsvie#"typepa%"com:economistsvie#:2016:0D:poverty1an%1 economics"html Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com =5 /.''.. 1ypothesis% Not technology but globalisation 8he +C' looks at a lar!er set of eAplainin! variables Ginclu%in! 9financialisation$H than these authors %o an% fin%s2 ,Ee have foun% that !lobalisation& i"e" increase% international tra%e& has ne!ative effects on the #a!e share in a%vance% as #ell as in %evelopin! economies& #hich is in contra%iction to the Stolper1Samuelson 8heorem" 'verall& the results are similar for a%vance% an% %evelopin! economies& #ith the possible eAception of lo#1income countries" 4inancialisation has ha% the lar!est ne!ative effect on #a!e shares" 8echnolo!ical pro!ress Ginclu%in! structural chan!eH has ha% substantial effects on the #a!e share& but these have been positive since 1FD0 an% can therefore not eAplain the %ecline in the #a!e share" @lobalisation an% #elfare state retrenchment have ha% mo%erate ne!ative effects on the #a!e share"- http2::r#er"#or%press"com:2016:05:01:#hat1causes1the1share1of1labor1to1%ecrease1 61!raphs: Source" /.''./ 1ypothesis% 8ermanently reduced "ages http2::mo%ele%behavior"com:2011:01:04:unlike1immi!rants1robots1#ill1permanently1 %rive1%o#n1#a!es: /.''.0 1ypothesis% "ages may not fall #a!es may not really fall2 http2::future1econ"blo!spot"com"au:200F:11:artificial1intelli!ence1economics1an%"html 6"12 .ffect on employment /.'..' The less educated have less of a chance of finding +obs no" Source2 http2::theforvm"or!:%iary:bernar%1!uerrero:Iero1mar!inal1pro%uct =9 /.'... Jo"er labour participation 7ery si!nificant %rop off in participation rate in KS* since 2000" *lthou!h 2:6r% is %ue to %emo!raphic factors& 1:6r% is relate% to technolo!y2 Omany unemploye% construction an% manufacturin! #orkers have stru!!le% to fin% #ork in !ro#in! fiel%s& such as technolo!y an% health care& an% itNs not clear if or #hen they #ill& Cavor!na says"O http2::###"usato%ay"com:story:money:business:2016:04:0B:march1 labor1force1participation:205BDDB: =ote2 *ustralian participation rate is still climbin!" http2::###"rba"!ov"au:publications:smp:2016:feb:!raphs:!raph1c1"html /.'../ Employment may not fall in the long run Here is a much more positive perspective" (8his) +Nm not sure about the *ustralian eAperience that has been cite%& thou!h" 1H .ven in *ustralia& the me%ian income has sta!nate%" +f nothin! else& ine0uality is si!nificantly increasin!" 2H '.3D has recently sai%2 O8he non1jobseeker population Gin *ustraliaH on unemployment benefit is so lar!e that it nee%s more analysis an% attention"O (http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:national1affairs:opinion:fi%%lin!1#ith1criteria1to1hi%e1 unemploye%:story1e>fr!%0A1122>>DD65F620) Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com == /.'../.' There could be short run pain 8LC.5 3'E.= Despite the !rim forecast& 8yler 3o#en ar!ues that #estern societies #on$t collapse un%er the #ei!ht of future in%ustrial chan!e& but #ill eventually a%just to a ne# phase of ubi0uitous automation\the perio% /rynjolfsson calls the 9Secon% Machine *!e$" Ho#ever& he #arns that evolution #ill take consi%erable time to play out" 9+f you look at the +n%ustrial 5evolution that starts in .n!lan% say aroun% 1BD0 an% for a lon! time a lot of jobs %o !o a#ay& #a!e !ains are very slo#& there$s a lot of volatility& it$s not really until the 1D40s that real #a!es in .n!lan% are !oin! up si!nificantly&$ he says" 9So + think this time aroun% it #ill actually be a lot like the last time" Ee #ill have a transition perio% of many %eca%es" 8hat #ill be tou!h for many people" +n the very lon! run it #ill be splen%i%& but alon! the #ay it$s not al#ays !oin! to feel splen%i%" + think that is the historical pattern for a lot of these chan!es"$ (Source) /.'../.. 1ours "or(ed by everyone may fall +f technolo!y re%uces %eman% for labor by a 0uarter& that mi!ht translate into everyone #orkin! 25 percent less rather than unemployment risin! by one1 fourth" 8he late economic historian 5obert 4o!el pre%icte% that the increase in leisure bet#een 1FF5 an% 2040 #oul% eAcee% the !ain *mericans sa# in the 115 years before 1FF5" (Source) 6"16 +ncrease% ine0uality See 3hrystia 4reelan% here" 8op 0"1 per cent of KS* o#ns D per cent of @DP" * mere 2 people in KS* o#n more #ealth than 120 million people at the bottom 40 per cent in KS*" 4acebook #ith Z100 billion in capitalisation& has less than 10&000 employees" 8his is only the be!innin!" +8 an% 5obotics are ra%ically re1#ritin! income %istribution rules across the #orl%" + %isa!ree #ith 4reelan% that the only jobs left for others #ill be to massa!e the top 1 per cent" 8he fiel%s of e%ucation an% health #ill blossom as they have never %one before" +ma!ine the HK=D5.DS '4 M+CC+'=S in +n%ia #aitin! for !oo% e%ucation to reach them" 8his is the time to focus on services" 8here has been a stea%ily increasin! trean% in ine0uality over the past century2 => ,+ percent of the population of the Knite% States pays 2D"B percent of the income taA& su!!estin! that as societies a%vance into the +nformation *!e they #ill eAperience an even more ske#e% %istribution of incomes an% abilities" People are 0uite accustome% to substantial ine0ualities of #ealth" +n 1D2D& 4 percent of =e# Lorkers #ere thou!ht to have o#ne% >2 percent of all the cityNs #ealth" /y 1D45& the top 4 percent o#ne% about D1 percent of all corporate an% noncorporate #ealth in =e# Lork 3ity" More broa%ly& the top 10 percent of the population o#ne% about 40 percent of the #ealth across the #hole Knite% States in 1D>0" /y 1DF0& recor%s su!!est that the richest 12 percent then o#ne% about D> percent of *mericaNs #ealth" 8he +nformation *!e has alrea%y chan!e% the %istribution of #ealth& particularly in the Knite% States& an% is one of the reasons for the bitterness of mo%em *merican politics& #hich #e eAplore further in the neAt chapter" 8he +nformation *!e re0uires a 0uite hi!h stan%ar% of literacy an% numeracy for economic success" * massive K"S" .%ucation Department survey& O*%ult Citeracy in *merica&O has sho#n that as many as F0 million *mericans over the a!e of fifteen are #oefully incompetent" 'r in the more colorful characteriIation of *merican eApatriate /ill /ryson& O8hey are as stupi% as pi! %ribble"ON Specifically& F0 million *merican a%ults #ere ju%!e% incapable of #ritin! a letter& fathomin! a bus sche%ule& or a%%in! an% subtractin!& even #ith the help of a calculator" 8hose #ho cannot make sense of an or%inary bus timetable are unlikely to be able to make much of the +nformation Superhi!h#ay" 4rom this thir% of *mericans #ho have not prepare% themselves to join the electronic information #orl%& an an!ry un%erclass is bein! recruite%" *t the top of society is a small !roup& perhaps 5 percent& of hi!hly e%ucate% information #orkers or capital o#ners #ho are the +nformation *!e e0uivalent of the lan%e% aristocracy of the feu%al a!e\#ith the crucial %ifference that the elite of the +nformation *!e are specialists in pro%uction& not specialists in violence" There is no inherent reason to suppose that technology al"ays tends to mas( rather than accentuate the differences in human talents and motivation. &orce2 8he Soverei!n +n%ivi%ual2 Masterin! the 8ransition to the +nformation *!e& by ?ames Dale Davi%son& Eilliam 5ees1Mo!! 7irtually all commentators a!ree that in the robotic a!e ine0uality #ill increase2 8he income !ap bet#een the rich an% everyone else has !ro#n as mi%%le1class manufacturin! jobs have been replace% #ith lo#1#a!e service jobs an% companies have fire% an% cut their #ay to recor% profitability" /ut this is a compensation an% investment problem& not an employment problem2 8hese jobs are nee%e%& #hich is #hy they eAist" 4or a variety of reasons& ho#ever& the jobs just %on$t pay as much as the heavily unioniIe% manufacturin! jobs that they replace%" (Source) /.'/.' 3edian income barely gro"ing 8his last !eneration #as the first one in the Eest #here the avera!e #orker %i% not eAperience real increase in income" 8he #orker benefite% from increase% 0uality an% ran!e of pro%ucts& but not hi!her income" /.'/.'.' G2A +n contrast to labor pro%uctivity& me%ian family income has risen only slo#ly since the 1FB0s G4i!ure 6"2H once the effects of inflation are taken into account" *s %iscusse% in 3hapter 1& 8yler 3o#en an% others point to this fact as evi%ence of economy1#i%e sta!nation" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com =? +n some #ays& 3o#en un%erstates his case" +f you Ioom in on the past %eca%e an% focus on #orkin!1a!e househol%s& real me%ian income has actually fallen from Z>0&B4> to Z55&D21" 8his is the first %eca%e to see %eclinin! me%ian income since the fi!ures #ere first compile%" Me%ian net #orth also %ecline% this past %eca%e #hen a%juste% for inflation& another first" (5ace a!ainst the machine) /.'/.'.' Australia Gthis is *ustraliaH (Source2 p"662 http2::###"pc"!ov"au:SS%ata:assets:p%fSfile:000>:1224F>:income1%istribution1 tren%s"p%fH /.'/.. ,ivide bet"een rich and poor rapidly gro"ing 8he %ivi%e bet#een the rich an% poor is !ro#in! rapi%ly 1 potentially eAacerbate% by technolo!ical %isplacement" 8his tren% #ill accelerate& forcin! si!nificant people to the bottom in the Eest" *n% the i%ea of nations like +n%ia catchin! up Gas a #holeH is no# lookin! practically impossible" 8his chart is for *ustralia" KS* tren%s are similar Source2http2::###"pc"!ov"au:SS%ata:assets:p%fSfile:000>:1224F>:income1 %istribution1tren%s"p%f ,.conomist .% Eolff foun% that over 100^ of all the #ealth increase in *merica bet#een 1FD6 an% 200F accrue% to the top 20^ of househol%s" 8he other four1fifths of the population sa# a net %ecrease in #ealth over nearly 60 years" (5ace *!ainst the Machine) O8he me%ian #orker is losin! the race a!ainst the machine"O (5ace *!ainst the Machine)1 in the Eest" *n% !iven +n%iaNs refusal to at least take S'M. a%vanta!e of mo%ern economics an% technolo!y& its fate is no# seale% at the very bottom of the #orl%Ns pyrami%" http2::###"philosophersbear%"or!:2016:05:avoi%in!1our1%ystopian1robot1future"html >A /.'/./ 2hare of corporate profits rising ,corporate profits as a share of @DP are at 501year hi!hs" Mean#hile& compensation to labor in all forms& inclu%in! #a!es an% benefits& is at a 501year lo#-(5ace *!ainst the Machine) 6"14 .ffect on asset values http2::future1econ"blo!spot"com"au:200F:11:artificial1intelli!ence1economics1an%"html 6"15 5out of the mi%%le class HereNs a more positive paper2 O+t is foun% that automation has a si!nificant positive impact on pro%uctivity in the short run as #ell as in the lon! run" Moreover& automation ten%s to re%uce employment in the short run" +n the lon! run& ho#ever& employment increases"O +Nm sceptical about its lon! run conclusion 1 but there is no %oubt that 5.*CCL lo# payin! service sector jobs #ill +=35.*S." +t is the mi%%le tier GNmi%%le classNH that #ill be #ipe% out" http2::###"aim1projekt"%k:files:robot1employment"p%f ,*n%re# Mc*fee says& an% many mi%%le1class jobs are ri!ht in the bull$s1eyeP even relatively hi!h1skill #ork in e%ucation& me%icine& an% la# is affecte%" ,8he mi%%le seems to be !oin! a#ay&- he a%%s" ,8he top an% bottom are clearly !ettin! farther apart"- Ehile technolo!y mi!ht be only one factor& says Mc*fee& it has been an ,un%erappreciate%- one& an% it is likely to become increasin!ly si!nificant"- (Source) Davi% *utor& an economist at M+8 has eAtensively stu%ie% the connections bet#een jobs an% technolo!y" *t least since the 1FD0s& he says& computers have increasin!ly taken over such tasks as bookkeepin!& clerical #ork& an% repetitive pro%uction jobs in manufacturin!\all of #hich typically provi%e% mi%%le1class pay" *t the same time& hi!her1payin! jobs re0uirin! creativity an% problem1solvin! skills& often ai%e% by computers& have proliferate%" So have lo#1skill jobs2 %eman% has increase% for restaurant #orkers& janitors& home health ai%es& an% others %oin! service #ork that is nearly impossible to automate" 8he result& says *utor& has been a ,polariIation- of the #orkforce an% a ,hollo#in! out- of the mi%%le class\somethin! that has been happenin! in numerous in%ustrialiIe% countries for the last several %eca%es" /ut ,that is very %ifferent from sayin! technolo!y is affectin! the total number of jobs&- he a%%s" ,?obs can chan!e a lot #ithout there bein! hu!e chan!es in employment rates"- (Source) 6"1> .%ucation is the 4'K=D*8+'= of robotics:+8 revolution Michio Jaku is very concerne% about the lack of !oo% e%ucation in KS*" H11/ visa http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+ Gfrom 45 minutesH Ee nee% more physicsts an% en!ineers" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >' 6"1B 5e%uce% traffic con!estion Eith %riverless half cars G!yroscopicH& traffic #ill also fall %ramatically as you %onNt o#n any car but rent on %eman%" 8he car %rives up an% then !oes an% %oes somethin! useful" F5 per cent of the time most of the #orl%Ns cars are 4*CC'E" Ehat a brilliant man is this_ Peter Diaman%is" (see https2::###"youtube"com:#atch; vRKKE0CoS'S+kTfeatureRc41overvie#1vlTlistRPC4F.3**/6>D56.4.D) 6"1D 3han!in! !overnment services .i!ht 8ren%s Drivin! the 8ransformation of @overnment Services Automation of 2ervices * variety of !overnment services& from traffic violations to buil%in! inspections& coul% become automate% throu!h the use of embe%%e% sensors an% intelli!ent& inte!rate% net#orks" +n a%%ition to increase% efficiency& automation #ill allo# !overnments to provi%e personaliIe% services at a level of 0uality previously reserve% for private luAury" Machine learnin!& %ata minin! an% pre%ictive soft#are #ill enable the creation of virtual civil servants& #ho can perform many aspects of to%ay$s !overnment jobs" 8his tren% #ill alleviate the vast majority of stan%ar%iIe% tasks& leavin! civil servants #ith more time to focus on the nee%s of in%ivi%ual citiIens" 3obile Q @earable Computing +n the neAt %eca%e the number of mobile smart %evices #ill increase eAponentially2 smart #allets& activity sensors& an% #earable %evices such as au!mente% reality !lasses or contact lenses #ill inte!rate seamlessly #ith their environment" =e# forms of #earable computers& such as to%ay$s @oo!le @lass& #ill allo# people to %irectly eAperience %i!ital #orl%s as part of their %ay1to1%ay physical activities" Mobile an% #earable computin! #ill enable ne# forms of compleA interaction that create eAcitin! opportunities in a ran!e of services" 3achine Jearning Machine learnin! #ill enable computers to !o beyon% eAecutin! simple tasks an% into ne# realms of pattern matchin!& learnin! an% meanin!1%etection" 8hese systems #ill learn to a%apt to human behavior an% provi%e services that #ork intuitively an% effectively for their users" Machine learnin! #ill also provi%e %ecision1support for professionals in various %omains& from me%icine to or!aniIational strate!y" 2imulationH isuali:ationH and Gaming 3ompleA interactive simulations #ill enable ne# forms of %eliberation& eAploration an% learnin! in a ran!e of fiel%s" 3itiIens& an% civil servants& for eAample& #ill be able to test outcomes of policy %ecisions an% possible scenarios before they occur& often #ithin a fun an% realistic !amin! environment" *%vance% visualiIations #ill enable us to fin% insi!ht in the oceans of %ata that #e create" Right Time C Right 8lace Assistance Po#erful analytic tools #ill become available to citiIens an% service provi%ers& combinin! outputs from multiple %ata services such as the neAt >. !eneration of @oo!le search& +/M$s Eatson& or Eolfram$s *lpha" 8his #ill result in a pre%ictive layer of services %erive% from observe% habits& %ata correlation an% a%vance% pre%ictive pattern matchin!" *lthou!h they #on$t al#ays un%erstan% ho# or #hy& tomorro#$s citiIens #ill be %eli!hte% by ho# services appear to meet their every nee%` often before they are a#are they even nee% them" Technologies of Coordination Di!ital platforms for the coor%ination of activities #ill eApan% rapi%ly& creatin! ne# opportunities for reima!ine% service %elivery" 3ro#% source% services such as Mechanical 8urk or oDesk& for eAample& #ill enable compleA #ork to be broken %o#n into smaller tasks an% complete% by a #eb of eAperts at any time an% in any place" &ntelligent &nfrastructure * carpet of net#orke% sensors #ill cover our built environment& enablin! ne# levels of automation an% responsiveness" Planners& an% officials #ill be able to 9rea%$ this %ata to fine tune smart systems& ran!in! from re%uce% traffic an% to more efficient ener!y use" 8he implementation of self1%rivin! cars an% %elivery %rones are another po#erful eAample" 8ersonali:ation Data analytics an% smart interfaces #ill create capacity for hi!hly personaliIe% customer services" 8his #ill allo# !overnments to serve in%ivi%ual citiIens far more accurately an% effective than ever before" (Source) Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >/ 4" Social Gan% political:le!alH conse0uences 4"1 Eill liberate #omen *s they can #ork from home& the role of #omen in the economy #ill chan!e" 4"2 .thics of robotics 8he #ait for a fully1functional robotic nurse is not just because the har%#are& soft#are an% artificial intelli!ence nee% #ork" Scientists also nee% to fi!ure out the best metho%s for safely usin! them" ODeliverin! machines is not just a 0uestion of buyin! robots& even if in the future they become cheap" 8here are many ethical issues&O sai% .spin!ar%eiro" 3urrently .spin!ar%eiro an% others are researchin! the a%vanta!es an% %isa%vanta!es of robots over human caretakers" 8hey are also lookin! into the potentially troublin! implications of a patient %evelopin! an emotional connection to a robot" O8his is a very vulnerable !roup& very frail&O sai% .spin!ar%eiro" OEhat happens if they !et attache% to these machines;O (Source) 0...' &saac Asimov)s RThree Ja"s of RoboticsR * robot may not injure a human bein! or& throu!h inaction& allo# a human bein! to come to harm" * robot must obey or%ers !iven it by human bein!s eAcept #here such or%ers #oul% conflict #ith the 4irst Ca#" * robot must protect its o#n eAistence as lon! as such protection %oes not conflict #ith the 4irst or Secon% Ca#" 0.... @ill robots ta(e over the "orld- ?ames /arrat& in a book& >r Final ?nvention7 Artificial ?ntelligence and the ;nd of the @man ;ra& has eApresse% concern that if *+ really becomes super1intelli!ent& it coul% take over mankin%" (* revie# here) + many #ays& this %iscussion is premature& an% can be Gor shoul% beH parke% till at least a mo%icum of 5.*C intelli!ence is achieve% by robots" 0.../ 1umans shouldn<t be doing such +obs any"ay HereNs #hat Jelly has to say about robots stealin! our jobs2 8he fact that a task is routine enou!h to be measure% su!!ests that it is routine enou!h to !o to the robots" +n my opinion& many of the jobs that are bein! fou!ht over by unions to%ay are jobs that #ill be outla#e% #ithin several !enerations as inhumane" +f a job is so routine that it coul% be %one by robots 1 usually robots that canNt really think but are really !oo% at %oin! mechanical tasks over an% over 1 #ill it be seen as OinhumaneO by future !enerations; (Source) >0 4"6 5e!ulatory impact: re!ulation of robots *n% the =eva%a state le!islature %irecte% its Department of Motor 7ehicles to come up #ith re!ulations coverin! autonomous vehicles on the state$s roa%s" (5ace a!ainst the machine) ?apan is #orkin! on robot re!ulation Q to ensure that robots behave appropriately" 8his vi%eo contains a panel %iscussion on robot sol%iers an% killer robots& an% hi!hli!hts the importance of appropriate re!ulatory frame#orks2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRv=2a.?y+04D Gkiller robots Q the future of #arH 0./.' 8rivacy issues 8his #ill nee% serious re!ulatory #ork in the comin! %eca%es" 8his is an eye1openin! Galthou!h lon! but entirely #orth#hileH vi%eo" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRStpsH05.C!4 +n casinos there is total surveillance2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch; vR@mun4inma@L *n% of course in Disneylan%& etc" /asically there is no# =' #ay #e can prevent 8'8*C SK57.+CC*=3. by corporations an% !overnments of our eAistence" +t is alrea%y happenin!& an% #ill only increase" 8his creates a fun%amental threat to human %i!nity an% liberty 1 t#o key principles of %emocracy" 8here has been a systematic attack on these t#o principles over the past %eca%e because even the KS* %oesnNt have any le!al frame#ork to protect in%ivi%ual o#nership of %ata about them" Privacy la#s are totally ineffectual Gan% in%ee%& ar!uably unnecessaryH" 8he '=CL #ay our privacy can ultimately be protecte% is if #e o#n *CC %ata about ourselves" 8hat means if anyone #ishes to use in%ivi%ualise% %ata for a commercial use he:she must pay for it 1 unless it is a !overnment investi!ation authorise% by a court" + believe appropriate re!ulation nee%s to be create% to make information about each in%ivi%ual a property ri!ht" +f the 5obotic .conomy %oesnNt evolve such o#nership ri!hts& then #e are hea%e% for a state much #orse than the 'r#ellian 1FD4 #here not just privacy #oul% have !one& even free%om an% %i!nity #oul% no lon!er eAist as a concept" +n the a!e of increasin! ine0uality the avera!e citiIen coul% #ell become a %i!ital slave" 0./.. The dissolution of the nation state 8he bor%erless #orl%" 8he nee% for !lobal harmonisation is likely to become ur!ent an% very pressin!" /ut this #ill remain 0uite %ifficult" +f !overnments %on$t re!ulate properly& then .=8+5. +=DKS85+.S #ill mi!rate to other countries" ."!" health:sur!ery:e%ucation" 4"4 =ee% for appropriate market mechanisms& business mo%els an% re!ulatory policy +n this vi%eo& http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+ Michael Schra!e refers to the nee% for innovation in business mo%els an% policy" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >5 8his in%icates the increasin! importance of economic theory Ge"!" Hal 7arian$s innovationsH in the future" 8here #ill be a nee% to make money in a %ifferent #ay" 4"5 8he problems of the unemploye% =otions of simply re%istributin! the #ealth miss the fact that the returns on #ork aren$t just measure% in #a!es" 8he #orkplace is a major institution in society" Eork is a social environment& #ith birth%ay celebrations an% coffee klatches& purpose an% GhopefullyH meanin!" People #ho #ork are less lonely on avera!e than people #ho %on$t" People #ith jobs feel connecte% to their #i%er community" ?obs can be an% shoul% be mentally stimulatin! an% emotionally en!a!in!" ,4or most people& #ork is a community&- says Meir Statman& a finance professor at Santa 3lara Kniversity" (Source) 0.5.' 3eaninglessness http2::###"philosophersbear%"or!:2016:05:avoi%in!1our1%ystopian1robot1future"html 0.5.. 3ass leisure http2::###"philosophersbear%"or!:2016:05:avoi%in!1our1%ystopian1robot1future"html 0.5./ Negative effects of expectorations http2::###"#ire%"com:!a%!etlab:200D:10:as1computers1!e: >9 5" .ffect on nations 5"1 Develope% nations Develope% nations Gor even nations like 3hina #hich are pursuin! robotics activelyH are likely to be able to !ro# rapi%ly throu!h eAports" *n% Solo#& #ho is DB& notes that the aspirations of billions of poor people in other parts of the #orl% #ill create ample room for continue% economic !ro#th\an% employment\aroun% the !lobe" ,Some of that #ill be %one by those lar!e lo#1#a!e populations& but it offers plenty of opportunities for hi!her1pro%uctivity& hi!her1#a!e #orkers in the rich countries to eAport&- he says" (Source) 5.'.' Effect of robotics on G2A KS*& in particular& has lost many millions of jobs %ue to offshorin!" (,O'ver the past %eca%e the KS has lost > million manufacturin! jobs"- 1 Source) 3ountries like KS* are likely to see an increase in jobs in the short run %ue to increase% robotics as manufacturin! returns to KS* Gonshorin!H" Manufacturin! accounts for 11^ of employment in the K"S" but 24^ in @ermany an% 2B^ in South Jorea" 8here is si!nificant scope to brin! manufacturin! back to KS*" 'nshorin!& ho#ever& #ill occur only #hen robots become sufficiently cheap an% fleAible" 8his is no# startin! to happen" ,5obotics is a critical factor in rebalancin! #orl% manufacturin! economies because it re%uces the threat from lo#1cost1of1labor countries"- (Source) ,*pple is movin! some manufacturin! /*3J to the KS* from abroa%" 8erme% reshorin! #ork" /ut instea% of 1&000s of factory #orkers& it is eApecte% 8'8*C employment& inclu%in! the receptionist& to be 200" Ehy; *utomation"- (Source) 3y comment Ee shoul% be concerne% about the re%uction in liberties in KS*& not so much these market:technolo!y1base% tren%s" Ciberty is the man%atory con%ition& mi%%le class is optional" +f liberty is available to everyone Gan% therefore opportunityH then people #on$t really care so much about the inevitably increasin! ine0uality" +f there is enou!h prosperity throu!h mo%ern technolo!y& then pro!ressive taAation can rebalance %istribution Galthou!h + %isa!ree #ith this i%ea of 9rebalancin!$H& if necessary" 8he risk comes not from the re%ucin! mi%%le class but from increasin! restrictions on technolo!y an% capital" *n% fe%eral %ebt" +f such restrictions Gan% over1spen%in! by !overnmentH are not remove%& technolo!y an% capital fli!ht #ill occur& %rivin! a#ay even prosperity from KS*" (Source) 5.'.. Effect of robotics on Australia 8he future for most small nations like *ustralia is !oin! to be some#hat similar to +n%ia in the robotic a!e" *s major factories locate to KS*:?apan:Jorea:@ermany Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >= G!iven their intellectual a%vanta!e in roboticsH& countries like *ustralia #ill become mere consumers" 8here #ill set in an ever1#i%enin! !ap in the @DP of robotise% nations an% ill1prepare% nations like *ustralia" Sta!nant income for the vast majority of *ustralians #ill become chronic" *ustralia spen%s hun%re%s of millions of %ollars in the name of OinnovationO" =ot sure ho# much of that !oes to#ar%s artificial intelli!ence" So far nothin! #orth mentionin! in the robotics:*+ stable has emer!e% from *ustralia Gthere is the /oein! cockpit %esi!n& thou!hH" +n the en% it is !oin! to be only about /5*+= P'E.5 an% ability to multiply the human brain a million times throu!h robots:*+" 8o%ay *ustralia %epen%s on *mericans an% ?apanese to buil% its cars locally& an% has no ability to buil% a 87 set:computer:mobile phone:voice reco!nition system" 8here is no internal %evelopment of innovation" +ts future is not lookin! !reat" 5"2 Developin! nations 5...' Effect of robotics on China 3hina is consciously focusin! on robotics as a strate!y to prevent Eestern onshorin!" 8his is likely to make 3hina a major manufacturin! hub even in the future" 5.... Effect of robotics on &ndia 5.....' &ndia has missed the boat +n%ia has misse% the boat" 8he #orl% of robotics an% machines is makin! +n%ia re%un%ant to the #orl% economy" 8oo little 4D+& 10th rate e%ucation system& Iero infrastructure& caste system& an% 100th rate !overnance system" Massive chan!e is un%er#ay& much bi!!er than the 3hina story" + %onNt kno# #hether +n%ia is even a#are of #hat is !oin! on_ 5...... &ndia has virtually no chance of being a manufacturing nation no" HereNs #here +n%ia nee%s to move no# 1 to#ar%s services" +t has virtually no chance in manufacturin! Gthe onset of the 5obotic *!e couple% #ith +n%iaNs terrible socialist policies 1 #hich blocke% 4D+ at the ri!ht time 1 almost entirely rule out major manufacturin! in +n%iaH" +ts focus Gin terms of employmentH shoul% be on increase% e%ucation& health an% services" *!riculture shoul% be allo#e% to mechanise% as soon as practicable" +8 in%ustry is +n%iaNs J.L future in%ustry" 4ortunately& in this area +n%ia is relatively #ell place%" +n%ia shoul% provi%e the intellectual input for ne# soft#are:robots an% its entrepreneurs shoul% M*SS+7.CL eAploit the opportunity to fun% their i%eas throu!h ne# cro#%fun%in! mo%els" =ote that +Nm not Oa%vocatin!O that +n%ia skip manufacturin!" +Nm merely statin! the fact that +n%ia is no# +55.C.7*=8 to !lobal manufacturin!" 3hina is not" .ven in the 5obotic *!e 3hina #ill %o a lot of manufacturin!" +n%iaNs #in%o# #as rou!hly till to%ay Gsince 1F4BH& but no# that #in%o# has lar!ely close%" +n%ia shoul% still try to ramp up +8:robotics& but it has a very remote chance no# of ever catchin! up either in income or output& #ith the Eest" 5...../ &ndia is going to continue to lose top &T talent to the @est *ttractin! top technical talent from +n%ia Gan% other %evelopin! countriesH is a D.C+/.5*8. strate!y in the Eest to create innovation an% jobs in the face of rapi% loss of jobs in tra%itional in%ustries:services" 'nly top talent is #ante%" + %onNt see ho# +n%ia can possibly retain its talent !iven miserable policies of 3on!ress:/?P" 8hese primitive OpartiesO an% their lea%ers are fi!htin! ancient me%ieval battles #hen the robotics a!e is alrea%y upon us" >> 8hese people have no sense of ur!ency that the time to act is almost over" ?ust like 4++ %raine% a#ay recently& 4D+ #ill come to a halt GeAcept in a fe# areas such as insurance:retailH as manufacturin! shifts back to the Eest an% most outsourcin! is ma%e irrelevant by technolo!y" +n%ia faces a bleak future" Sometimes + feel that it is best for all talent to @.8 'K8 of +n%ia 1 so it can at least achieve somethin! in life" Millions of lives are bein! totally #aste% in +n%ia" +=D+* +S CK3JL 8H*8 KS H*S /.3'M. * /+8 S8KP+D 5.2 +MM+@5*8+'=" 8he moment KS !ets its act to!ether& virtually *CC talent in +n%ia #ill leave" 8he Eest has not choice but to create an 'P.= *5MS P'C+3L for talent" O*nan% an% Shikha 3hhatpar& they starte% a company calle% 4ame .Apress that #as buil%in! really cool 4acebook apps" 8hey si!ne% up a million users in almost no time& buil%in! lots of revenue" *nnan an% Shikha pai% a 0uarter of a million %ollars in taAes #hile they #ere here" 8hey ha% to !o back to +n%ia to !et their visa a%juste% to start the process of permanent resi%ency& an% the K"S" !overnment #oul%nNt let them back& %espite the fact that they #ere hirin! *mericans& they #ere %oin! #ell& they #ere here le!ally" *nnan ha% file% ei!ht patents& so the !uy #as eAceptional" =o one #as %isa!reein! that heNs a #orthy can%i%ate" /ut even the hea% of the immi!ration %epartment coul%nNt fiA this" So no# theyNre livin! in +n%ia& payin! +n%ian taAes& employin! +n%ian #orkers" +tNs a bi! loss for *merica" 8his is the stupi%ity of our immi!ration systemO (Source) /e#are of the %ay #hen KS* #akes up an% implements this policy by 7ivek Ea%h#a2 O+f #e ha% a startup visa #hich allo#e% any forei!ner to start a company here& if after three or four years the company is employin! less than five *mericans& that person is ineli!ible for a !reen car%" 8hat #oul% lea% to tens of thousan%s of ne# startups& possibly hun%re%s of thousan%s of startups& #hich #oul% !enerate hun%re%s of thousan%s& maybe millions of jobs \ all for a cost of Iero"O (Source) 5.....' Robotics research in &ndia .1yantra& a !roup of stu%ents at ++8 /ombay GMumbaiH& t#eete% in response to my previous article& an% a!ree% #ith my %ia!nosis that &ndians can expect to be replaced by robots if they %onNt rush in to upskill" 5+@H8 ='E" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >? >" .conomics of eAtreme lon!evity Geven some form of immortalityH *s part of my rea%in!s on robotics& +Nve become persua%e% that re!ar%less of #hether machines can become !enuinely human1like Gthat #oul% %epen% lar!ely on pro!ress in *+& since har%#are #ill %efinitely permit such capacityH& man "illplace% break throu!h the atomic levels of biolo!y" O*!in! isnNt the irreversible affliction that #e thou!ht it #asO (Source) Extreme longevity is 'AA per cent certain in the near futureH even if immortality is still in 0uestion" Ee canNt rule out immortality& thou!h" +ts probability is !reater than Iero" So #e shoul% at least start thinkin! alou% about it" +n the eAtreme case& immortality #ill colli%e #ith infinite abun%ance Q lea%in! to rather stran!e outcomes" Some vi%eos first2 *n% hereNs a report on JurI#eilNs recent talk" *n% this2 5ay JurI#eil$s 3ase for +mmortality" O+Nm ri!ht on the cusp&O he a%%s" O+ think some of us #ill make it throu!hO Q he means baby boomers& #ho can hope to eAperience practical immortality if they han! on for another 15 years" *n% a 8.DA 7ienna talk2 http2::###"te%Avienna"at:blo!:!oal1immortality:" *n% hereNs 3hina Daily sprea%in! this i%ea across 3hina" *ll si!ns are no# 7.5L S85'=@ that %isease #ill come fully un%er human control" 4or instance2 human1en!ineere% bacteria are no# able to hunts %o#n patho!ens" .conomists nee% to start thinkin! about this issue" >"1 Pensions * basic 0uestion #oul% be& for instance& about ol%1a!e pension schemes" +Nm fun%amentally oppose% to all pension schemes" +nstea%& + believe a social minimum is the #ay to !o" 5e!ar%less of the cause& if you have fallen belo# a poverty level& the !overnment shoul% top up Gnot %ouble countH till you are able to Gfru!allyH survive" Ehy shoul% anyone be responsible for payin! you a pension; *ll over the Eest& ol%1a!e pension schemes are no# in place" *s lon!evity increases %ramatically& these schemes #ill come un%er massive pressure& an% #ill ultimately nee% to be abolishe% Q as they shoul%" ?A >"2 4urther rea%in! on the biolo!y:economics of immortality +Nm !oin! to start rea%in!:revie#in! the literature on this issue& time permittin!" +f youNve !ot any peer revie#e% references& please let me kno#" * 0uick search across the internet le% to the follo#in! links2 * facebook !roup #here people share %ata on lon!evity stu%ies" 8he .conomics of +mmortality2 3onference hoste% by the .uropean 3ommission& /ruAelles& D 'ctober 200F .conomics of immortality; .conomics of lon!evity" 8he .conomics of +mmortality Gcontains a vi%eo talkH Ho# %o 3han!es in Human Con!evity +mpact on our Demo!raphy; Eoul% +mmortality /ecome *n 'verpopulation =i!htmare; +mmortality an% Society 8he Social /ur%en of Con!er Cives Some Practical Problems of +mmortality +mmortality #ithin 60 Lears +mmortality is a ba% i%ea G?oichi +toH 8he ethics of a!ein!& immortality an% !enetics by Daniela 3utas 8he .conomic an% Social /enefits of O+mmortalityO Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ?' B" Shoul% #e be concerne%; Shoul% the !overnment %o anythin!; 8here is seemin!ly a O!ro#in! mismatch bet#een rapi%ly a%vancin! %i!ital technolo!ies an% slo#1chan!in! humans"O /ut after consi%erable analysis an% thou!ht +$ve come to the vie# that this is not a matter of concern" 8here is a ne# e0uilibrium ahea% for mankin%" B"1 * ne# e0uilibrium #ill soon emer!e 8here is no reason to panic" ,unemployment in the Jenne%y an% early ?ohnson years remaine% stubbornly hi!h& reachin! B percent at one point" *utomation& seen loiterin! in the vicinity of the in%ustrial crime& appeare% a likely culprit"- 8o take one eAample2 Cife ma!aIine publishe% a picture in 1F>6 of a ne# automate% machine tool calle% Mil#aukee1Matic that coul% replace 1D #orkers" +t #as feare% that this #as the ne# norm" 5obert Heilbroner& a #ell1kno#n economist #ho #rote a #i%ely rea% book on economic history G,8he Eorl%ly Philosophers2 8he Cives& 8imes& an% +%eas of the @reat .conomic 8hinkers-H #arne%2 ,*s machines continue to inva%e society " " " it is human labor itself \ at least& as #e no# think of 9labor$ \ that is !ra%ually ren%ere% re%un%ant"- So concerne% #as Presi%ent ?ohnson that in 1F>4 he appointe% a =ational 3ommission on 8echnolo!y& *utomation an% .conomic Pro!ress" (Source) 8he economy is alrea%y a%justin!& as people #ith !reater buyin! po#er G+81%riven in%ustriesH are startin! to pay personal trainers an% artists for a better 0uality of life" 3reative& fitness an% spiritual in%ustries are !oin! to be the boom in%ustries of the future" B"2 Some !oo% policies =...' Greater competition and regulatory reform Ee #oul% nee% even more competition an% re!ulatory reform& to make it easier for businesses to establish an% operate" =.... Attract innovatorsCtalent from across the "orld 5obotics:+8 is %riven by top science an% maths talent& so it #ill be crucial to attract the best talent from across the #orl% Gpossibly throu!h mi!rationH" =.....' The exodus of talent from 2ilicon alley +n a stu%y ,8hen an% =o#2 *merica$s =e# +mmi!rant .ntrepreneurs& Part 7++ 7ivek Ea%h#a sho#s that ,the number of immi!rant entrepreneurs in the Knite% States has fallen sli!htly" /ut accor%in! to 7ivek Ea%h#a& an author of the stu%y& the %rop is especially steep in Silicon 7alley& lon! a ma!net for the bri!htest an% most ambitious min%s from aroun% the #orl%" 4rom 1FF5 to 2005& immi!rants foun%e% 52 percent of the startups in Silicon 7alley" 8he up%ate% research sho#s that since 2005& that %roppe% to 44 percent"- (Source) ?. +n this vi%eo& Michio Jaku sho#s ho# KS has !ro#n off the brainpo#er of top technical PhDs from +n%ian an% 3hina& etc" *mericaNs secret #eapon is H1/" *n% here is +n%ian 7ivek Ea%h#a stron!ly promotin! that KS* attract +n%iaNs top talent2 0Anand and &hikha 6hhatpar, they started a company called Fame ;<press that !as bilding really cool Facebook apps. They signed p a million sers in almost no time, bilding lots of revene. Annan and &hikha paid a Aarter of a million dollars in ta<es !hile they !ere here. They had to go back to ?ndia to get their visa ad9sted to start the process of permanent residency, and the B.&. government !oldnCt let them back, despite the fact that they !ere hiring Americans, they !ere doing !ell, they !ere here legally. Annan had filed eight patents, so the gy !as e<ceptional. $o one !as disagreeing that heCs a !orthy candidate. =t even the head of the immigration department coldnCt fi< this. &o no! theyCre living in ?ndia, paying ?ndian ta<es, employing ?ndian !orkers. ?tCs a big loss for America. This is the stpidity of or immigration system0 .&orce/ *n% here is /ill @ates promotin! mi!ration of technically skille% people into KS*" 8he KS* has no option but to !o full throttle on attractin! the #orl%Ns best talent if it has to succee% in this 5obotic *!e" =.....' Need for talent*friendly policies =.../ &f you do need to spend on innovationH spend on roboticsCA&Cnanotechnology +f fun%s must be spen% on innovation policy Gi%eally this shoul% be left to the marketH then some co1fun%in! of !oo% robotics ventures may be sensible on case by case basis" =...0 Retraining 5etrainin! is !enerally a ba% i%ea& but in some cases it mi!ht #ork" 8he i%ea that if #e coul% simply re1train everyone& the problem #oul% be solve% is simply not cre%ible" +f you %oubt that& ask any of the thousan%s of #orkers #ho have complete% trainin! pro!rams& but still canNt fin% #ork" (Source) B"6 /a% policies =./.' 8rogressive taxation 8his is a common 9solution$ to ine0uality" .Acessively pro!ressive taAation can& ho#ever& cause capital to flee" =./.. Redistribution =./...' Citi:en<s income http2::###"ne#statesman"com:economics:2016:0>:basic1income1versus1robots * more %isastrous i%ea than this #as never ima!ine%" Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ?/ D" 5eferences D"1 Jey blo!s on robotics .verythin! robotic D"2 .conomics of a robotic economy *rtificial +ntelli!ence 1 .conomics an% ?ob Market +mpact Drum& Jevin" Eelcome& 5obot 'verlor%s" Please DonNt 4ire Ks; Smart machines probably #onNt kill us all\but theyNll %efinitely take our jobs& an% sooner than you think" Hanson& 5obin" .conomic @ro#th @iven Machine +ntelli!ence" Hanson& 5obin" .conomics of 8he Sin!ularity =ilsson& =" ?" G1FD5H" *rtificial intelli!ence& employment& an% income" Human Systems Mana!ement& 5& 126Q125" =ilsson& ="& 3ook& S"& Jay& *"& Duchin& 4"& /o%en& M"& T 3hamot& D" G1FD6H" *rtificial intelli!ence2 its impacts on human occupations an% %istribution of income" +n Procee%in!s Dth +nternational ?oint 3onference on *rtificial +ntelli!ence Jarlsruhe& Eest @ermany" Eilliam Jaufmann" Coukas Jarabarbounis an% /rent =eiman& 8he @lobal Decline of the Cabor Share& ?une 2016 Shoul% #e fear the en% of #ork; Smith& Jarl" +ne0uality +n 8he 5obot 4uture Ehat the robotic a!e means for K"S" manufacturin! Matthe# L!lesias& Eho @ets 5ich Ehen 5obots 8ake 'ur ?obs Davi% H" *utor& 4rank Cevy an% 5ichar% ?" Murnane2 ,8he Skill 3ontent of 5ecent 8echnolo!ical 3han!e2 *n .mpirical .Aploration&- publishe% in The Darterly Eornal of ;conomics in =ovember 2006 Davi% 4" =oble& Forces of 'rodction7 A &ocial @istory of ?ndstrial Atomation" Cean%ro Pra%os %e la .scosura an% ?oan 5" 5oscs& E*@.S *=D C*/'5 +=3'M. += H+S8'5L2 * SK57.L ?ason /orenstein in *+ T S'3+.8L G2011H& 5obots an% the chan!in! #orkforce ?ournal *+ T S'3+.8L D"6 Science of robotics *n%erson SC G200DH *simov$s 99three la#s of robotics$$ an% machine metaethics" *+ T Soc 2224BBQ4F6 /ankhea% 3 G200FH S@'2 robotic hysterectomy sho#s a%vanta!es over open sur!ery" Me%Pa!e 8o%ay" http2::###"me%pa!eto%ay" com:Meetin!3overa!e:S@':12BD4" *ccesse% 1D 4eb 200F ?0 /anks M5& Eillou!hby CM& /anks E* G200DH *nimal1*ssiste% therapy an% loneliness in nursin! homes2 use of robotic versus livin! %o!s" ? *m Me% Dir *ssoc FG6H21B6Q1BB /erry ?= +++ G200>H Humans %o a better job" Cibr ? 161210 3larke 5 G1FF6H *simov$s la#s of robotics2 implications for information technolo!y\ part +" 3omputer 2>G12H256Q>1 3larke 5 G1FF4H *simov$s la#s of robotics2 implications for information technolo!y1 part ++" 3omputer 2BG1H25BQ>> Demetriou D G200FH 5obot teacher con%ucts first class in 8okyo school" 4aucounau 7& Eu LH& /oulay M& Maestrutti M& 5i!au% *S G200FH 3are!ivers$ re0uirements for in1home robotic a!ent for supportin! community1livin! el%erly subjects #ith co!nitive impairment" 8echnol Health 3are 1BG1H266Q40 Hayes / G200FH *utomation on the job" *m Sci FBG1H210 +acono S& Jlin! 5 G1FFDH 3omputeriIation movements2 the rise of the internet an% %istant forms of #ork" +n2 Lates ?& 7an Maanen ? Ge%sH +nformation technolo!y an% or!aniIational transformation2 history& rhetoric& an% practice" Sa!e Publications& 8housan% 'aks& 3*& pp F6Q16> Gpart of an antholo!y from 2001H Jane 8 G200>H 8he 8errifyin! liberation of labor" =otre Dame ? Ca# .thics Public Policy 202D15QD66 Jleiner J G200DH /ottle1brush robot !oes #here 9pi!s$ can$t reach" =e#Scientist" JurI#eil 5 G1FF0H 8he a!e of intelli!ent machines& 3hapter 4ive2 mechanical roots" JurI#eil 5 G2000H 8he a!e of spiritual machines2 #hen computers eAcee% human intelli!ence" Pen!uin /ooks& KS*" Cin P& /ekey @& *bney J G200DH *utonomous military robotics2 risk& ethics& an% %esi!n" .thics T .mer!in! 8echnolo!ies @roup at 3alifornia State Polytechnic Kniversity Cuo M G200FH ?ob retrainin! may fall short of hi!h hopes" 8he =e# Lork 8imes Cynn CH G2002H .n!ineers an% en!ineerin! in the KS an% ?apan2 a critical revie# of the literature an% su!!estions for a ne# research a!en%a" +... 8rans .n! Mana!e 4FG1H2F5Q10> MacDorman J4& 7asu%evan SJ& Ho 313 G200FH Does ?apan really have robot mania; 3omparin! attitu%es by implicit an% eAplicit measures" *+ T Soc 2624D5Q510 =a!enbor! M& 3apurro 5& Eeber ?& Pin!el 3 G200DH .thical re!ulations on robotics in .urope" *+ T Soc 22264FQ6>> =omura 8 G200FH Soft#are a!ents an% robots in mental therapy2 psycholo!ical an% sociolo!ical perspectives" *+ T Soc 2624B1Q =orman D* G200BH 8he %esi!n of future thin!s" /asic /ooks& =e# Lork =ye D. G2004H 8echnolo!ical pre%iction2 a promethean problem" +n2 8echnolo!ical visions2 the hopes an% fears that shape ne# technolo!ies" 8emple Kniversity Press& Phila%elphia& pp 15FQ1B> Pilotless police %rone takes off G200BH //3 =e#s" http2::ne#s"bbc" co"uk:!o:pr:fr:1:2:hi:ukSne#s:en!lan%:merseysi%e:>>B>D0F"stm" *ccesse% 2D ?uly 200F Poll2 *%ults prefer face time to 4acebook G200FH KP+"com" http2:: ###"upi"com:ScienceS=e#s:200F:0D:06:Poll1*%ults1preferface1time1to1 4acebook:KP+11262124F622F1D:" *ccesse% 4 *u! 200F Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ?5 Pullin ? G200>H *utomation saves jobs" Professional .n!ineerin!& p 6F 5obertson = G200FH Ho# robot %rones revolutioniIe% the face of #arfare" http2::###"cnn"com:200F:E'5CD:americas:0B:26:#us" #arfare"remote"uav:in%eA"html" *ccesse% 24 ?uly 200F 5obotic Percussionist" http2::###"!atech"e%u:research:robotic%rummer" html" *ccesse% D May 200F 5obots seen %oin! #ork of 6"5 million in ?apan G200DH 5euters"com" http2::###"reuters"com:article:o%%ly.nou!h=e#s:i%KS82B50> 2200D040D" *ccesse% 24 ?an 200F Scassellati / G200BH Ho# social robots #ill help us to %ia!nose& treat& an% un%erstan% autism" +n2 8hrun S& /rooks 5& Durrant1Ehyte H Ge%sH 5obotics research" Sprin!er& =e# Lork& pp 552Q5>6 Sin!er PE G200FH Eire% for Ear" Pen!uin Press& =e# Lork Sla%e @ G200BH Ma%e to break2 technolo!y an% obsolescence in *merica" Harvar% Kniversity Press& 3ambri%!e Smith D G200FH Does /aseball$s future lie in these col%& robotic han%s; Popsci"com" http2::###"popsci"com:scitech:article:200F0B:%oes1baseballs1future1lie1their1col%1 robotic1han%s" *ccesse% 60 ?uly 200F Sparro# 5& Sparro# C G200>H +n the han%s of machines; 8he future of a!e% care" Min% Mach 1>2141Q1>1 Spencer 5 G2004H *ssembly robots help K"S" companies stay competitive& retain jobs" 5obotics Eorl% 22210& 12Q16 8abuchi H G200FH +n ?apan& machines for #ork an% play are i%le" 8he =e# Lork 8imes" http2::###"nytimes"com:200F:0B:16: technolo!y:16robot"html" *ccesse% 60 ?uly 200F 8enner . G1FF>H 8he 3omputeriIe% 'f"ce2 pro%uctivity puIIles" +n2 JatI .& Ci!ht *& 8hompson E Ge%sH 3ontrollin! 8echnolo!y2 contemporary issues& 2n% e%n" Prometheus /ooks& *mherst& =L& pp 4>BQ4D5 Gpart of an antholo!y from 2006H 8he *utomation ?obless G1F>1H 8ime Ma!aIine KS *ir 4orce G200FH Knite% States *ir 4orce Knmanne% *ircraft Systems 4li!ht Plan 200FQ204B" http2::###"!oveAec"com:p%fs: 0B260Fkp1"p%f" *ccesse% 1 Sept 200F KS Department of Defense G200FH Knmanne% Systems +nte!rate% 5oa%map 200FQ 2064" http2::###"ac0"os%"mil:uas:%ocs: KMS+nte!rate%5oa%map200F"p%f" *ccesse% 1B ?uly 200F Eallach E& *llen 3 G200FH Moral machines2 teachin! robots ri!ht from #ron!" 'Afor% Kniversity Press& +nc"& =e# Lork Einner C G1FD0H Do artifacts have politics" +n2 8eich *H Ge%H 8echnolo!y an% the future& Fth e%n" Ea%s#orth& =e# Lork& 2006& pp 14DQ1>4 /rynjolfsson& .rik an% *n%re# Mc*fee& 5ace *!ainst 8he Machine2 Ho# the Di!ital 5evolution is *cceleratin! +nnovation& Drivin! Pro%uctivity& an% +rreversibly 8ransformin! .mployment an% the .conomy" /orenstein& ?ason& 5obots an% the chan!in! #orkforce & *+ T Soc G2011H 2>2DBQF6 7e%akkapet& Prahla%& 8he 5obotic *!e JurI#eil& 5ay G2005H" 8he Sin!ularity +s =ear2 Ehen Humans 8ranscen% /iolo!y" Moravec& H" G1FFDH" Ehen #ill computer har%#are match the human brain; ?ournal of 8ranshumanism" http2::###"transhumanist"com" ?9 /rynjolfsson& .rik an% *%am Saun%ers" Eire% for +nnovation2Ho# +nformation 8echnolo!y is 5eshapin! the .conomy * 5oa%map for KS 5obotics 4rom +nternet to 5obotics G200FH @erhar%us D"& 5obot1assiste% sur!ery2 the future is here& ? Healthc Mana!" 2006 ?ul1 *u!P4DG4H2242151" .%mun%as JaIimieras [ava%skas& *utomation an% robotics in construction2 +nternational research an% achievements" Paula @omes G2011H& Sur!ical robotics2 5evie#in! the past& analysin! the present& ima!inin! the future 5obotics an% 3omputer1+nte!rate% Manufacturin!& 7olume 2B& +ssue 2& *pril 2011& Pa!es 2>1Q2>>" D"4 .thics of robotics *rkin 53 G200BH @overnin! lethal behavior2 embe%%in! ethics in a hybri% %eliberative:reactive robot architecture& @7K 8echnical 5eport @+81@7K10B111& pp 1Q11B /rin!sjor% S G200DH .thical robots2 the future can hee% us" *+ T Soc 22256FQ550 Decker M G200DH 3are!ivin! robots an% ethical reflection2 the perspective of inter%isciplinary technolo!y assessment" *+ T Soc 222615Q660 Harris 3. G200DH 8he @oo% .n!ineer2 !ivin! virtue its %ue in en!ineerin! ethics" Sci .n! .thics 14G2H2156Q1>4 Michael =a!enbor!& 5afael 3apurro& ?utta Eeber& 3hristoph Pin!el G200DH" .thical re!ulations on robotics in .urope& *+ T S'3+.8L G200DH http2::###"voane#s"com:content:robotic1a!e1%ra#s1closer1 106>6BB0F:12>51F"html http2::0I"com:FD42B:in1japan1robots1coul%1be1mans1neAt1best1frien%:d Fey isses 'bject an% facial reco!nition 3omputers %o better than humans *+2 Jey barrier is human emotions" *n% #e can$t mass pro%uce min%s" +nter1operability Synthetic biolo!y Gconvertin! biolo!ical throu!h @M to make them %o thin!s they #ere not %esi!ne% forH Deep learnin! Sparse co%in! Home robots Q people are #illin! to spen% more than for a car Gif it #ere usefulH" 3ybor! Gcybernetic or!anismH Artificial materials Ee.g. metamaterialsF including invisibility cloa( SpaceA Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ?= 4ollo#in! ima!es from2 http2::###"technolo!yrevie#"com:feature%story:515F2>:ho#1 technolo!y1is1%estroyin!1jobs: ?> Error! No text of specified style in document. Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ?? COMP!"# $I%&"# M'("$ )*20 million. +'nd yes, she dances in -. throu/h modern projection technolo/ies.0 1atsune Mi2u is a computer pro/ram +3amaha4s 5ocaloid 2 voice synthesiser0. 3ou can ma2e her sin/ anythin/ you li2e. $he has made )$*20 million for CFM from 60,000 sales plus licensin/. http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRp.a/0iCe3u0 Some#hat craIy2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR=v.4KhJm.f# 'AA