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The Glorious Abundance and

Creativity of the Robotic Age


Sanjeev Sabhlok
Preliminary Draft 25 May 2014
This is very preliminary.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com
Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google combined have something close to $1
trillion in market capitalization. Together, the for of them employ fe!er than 1"#,###
people.
$ote that
#e still haven$t pro%uce% machines #ith common
sense& vision& natural lan!ua!e processin!& or the
ability to create other machines" 'ur efforts
at %irectly simulatin! human brains remain primitive"
(Source)
Peter Diaman%is has ar!ue% that a%vances in *"+" #ill be one key to
usherin! in a ne# era of ,abun%ance&- #ith enou!h foo%& #ater& an%
consumer !a%!ets for all" Skeptics like .ric /rynjolfsson an% + have
#orrie% about the conse0uences of *"+" an% robotics for employment" /ut
even if you put asi%e the sort of #orries about #hat super1a%vance% *"+"
mi!ht %o to the labor market& there$s another concern& too2 that po#erful
*"+" mi!ht threaten us more %irectly& by battlin! us for resources" (Source)
i
3ontents
1" 4rom aroun% 2000 *D2 the .arly 5obotic *!e""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1
1"1"1 *utonomous economy""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6
1"2 7i%eo intro%uction to the issues"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6
1"6 *!ricultural a!e as a major %iscontinuity from the huntin! !atherin! a!e 6
1"6"1"1 8he *rtilect *!e""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4
1"4 *re there any 9har% limits$ on a%vances in robotics:*+;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4
1"4"1 Har%#are limits"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4
1"4"1"1 Silicon computer have limits"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4
1"4"1"1 Molecular computers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4
1"4"1"2 <uantum computers #ill breakthrou!h to an unbelievable level""""""""""""""""""""""""""""4
1"4"1"1 =anocomputers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""5
1"4"2 Soft#are limits """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""5
1"4"2"1 *rtificial intelli!ence """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""5
1"4"2"1 'bject reco!nition"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">
1"4"2"2 Machine learnin!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">
1"4"2"6 5at /rain simulation""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">
1"4"2"4 Human /rain Project """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">
1"4"2"5 <uantum computer pro!rammin!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">
1"5 8hree key scenarios"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">
1"5"1"1 +"?" @oo%$s +ntelli!ence eAplosion concept"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B
1"> Con! term structural chan!e in *ustralia""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D
1"B +n%ustrial machines supplemente% muscle" 5obots supplement our
senses an% brains""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""10
1"D 8he 9comin! of a!e$ of robots""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""10
1"D"1 Ehat are robots;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""10
1"D"2 Maturation of many relate% technol!ies""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""11
1"D"2"1 @enome mappin!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12
1"D"2"2 61D printin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 12
1"D"2"6 /iolo!ical computers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12
1"D"2"4 =eural net#orks"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12
1"D"2"5 5ecreation of %etaile% map of the brain"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""12
1"D"2"1 4usion""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 16
1"D"2"1 =anotechnolo!y:nanorobots""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""16
1"F Ehat can robots %o;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""16
1"F"1 Physical"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 16
1"F"1"1 21le!!e% robots can #alk in the mi%st of people an% on rou!h surfaces"""""""""""""16
1"F"1"2 41le!!e% robots can run faster than humans """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""16
1"F"1"6 41le!!e% robots can carry loa%s an% #alk faster uphill than humans """"""""""""""""""14
1"F"1"4 .Atreme athleticism in runnin!:flyin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"1"5 3an jump 60 feet""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"1"1 3an fi!ht an% 9kill$ other robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"1"1 3an %ance :play !ames""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"2 DeAterity""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 14
1"F"2"1 3an bounce balls an% catch objects #ith fin!ers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"2"2 Have eAtremely fine 9han%1eye$ coor%ination"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"2"1 3an %rive trains""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"2"2 3an %rive cars an% trucks an% fly planes"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""14
1"F"2"1 3an fly helicopeter upsi%e %o#n""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15
1"F"6 7erbal""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15
1"F"6"1 3an talk"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15
1"F"6"2 3an sin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15
1"F"4 3reative"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 15
1"F"4"1 3an sketch an% make oil paintin!s GeDavi%H""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15
1"F"4"1 3an make music Gban%sH"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15
ii
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com
1"F"1 3o!nitive computin!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""15
1"10 Major si!ns that the robotic a!e is upon us""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1>
1"10"1 Si!nificant acceleration in capability""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1>
1"10"1"1 *lrea%y #e have a computer e0ual to human brain in processin! po#er""""""""""1>
1"10"1"1 Pre%ictions""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1>
1"10"1"2 Si!nificant acceleration Gsecon% half of the chessboar%H"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1>
1"10"1"6 Si!nificant acceleration in *+""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B
1"10"2 8he commercial case for robots """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B
1"10"2"1 Dramatically fallin! robot prices"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B
1"10"2"2 8he rise of the multi1purpose robot""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B
1"10"2"6 Many other a%vanta!es of robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B
1"10"6 .vi%ence of commercial %eployment"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B
1"10"6"1 SiIe of robotics in%ustry"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1B
1"10"6"2 =umber of Eork3over claims re%ucin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1D
1"10"6"6 =umber of robots increasin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1D
1"10"6"4 Manufacturin! is shiftin! back to the Eest"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1F
1"10"6"5 Su%%enness of chan!e"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""1F
1"11 Eho$s %rivin! this rapi% chan!e;"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""20
1"12 Jey or!anisations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""20
1"12"1 +45 G+nternational 4e%eration of 5oboticsH""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""20
1"12"2 D*5P* """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 20
1"12"6 Penta!on"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 20
1"12"4 /oston 5obotics""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""21
1"12"5 Kniversal 5obots """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""21
1"12"> Lamaha """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 21
1"12"B i5obot""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 21
1"12"D 5ethink 5obotics"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""21
1"12"F Jey publicly tra%e% robotic companies""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22
1"12"F"1 Healthcare *pplications2"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22
1"12"F"2 Defense& Security an% Space *pplicationsM2""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22
1"12"F"1 +n%ustrial an% 3o1robot *pplicationsMM2"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""22
1"12"F"2 *ncillary businesses to the robotics in%ustry2"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""26
1"16 'pinions """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 24
1"16"1 Mostly positive""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""24
1"16"1"1 5ay JurI#eil"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 24
1"16"1"2 Eilliam CaIonick"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""24
1"16"1"6 Hal 7arian"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""24
1"16"1"4 Dr" Michio Jaku """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25
1"16"1"5 4rank Cevy an% 5ichar% Murnane""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25
1"16"1"> 5obin Hanson"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25
1"16"1"1 E" /rian *rthur""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 25
1"16"1"1 Mark 8homa"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25
1"16"1"1 .lieIer Lu%ko#sky"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25
1"16"1"1 Caurence JatI""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25
1"16"1"1 5obert *tkinson""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""25
1"16"1"1 =ick /loom""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 2>
1"16"2 Mostly ne!ative Gi"e" this is a bi! issue for societyH""""""""""""""""""""""2>
1"16"2"1 *n%re# Mc3affee an% .rik /rynjolfsson """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2>
1"16"2"1 ?effrey Sachs an% Ca#rence Jotlikoff""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2B
1"16"2"2 Martin 4or%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2B
1"16"2"6 Jevin Drum""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 2B
1"16"2"4 8yler 3o#en"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""2B
1"16"2"5 P/S"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 66
1"16"2"> Paul Jru!man"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""66
1"16"2"B +Iabella Jaminska""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""66
1"16"2"D *leA Hern"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 66
1"16"6 3onfuse%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 64
1"16"6"1 4e%erico Pistono""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""64
1"16"6"1 Peter Diaman%is"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""64
2" .Aamples of robotic innovations Ginclu%in! *+H""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65
2"1 Smart assistants""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65
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2"1"1 .Apliner Hi!h17olta!e Po#er 8ransmission Cine +nspection 5obot
""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 65
2"1"2 Spare tyre mountin! robot""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65
2"1"6 Packin! assistant""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65
2"1"4 *utomate% vacuum cleaners"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""65
2"1"5 8oys"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 65
2"1"> Hospital assistants""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6>
2"1">"1 Me%icine Pickin! an% Deliverin! 5obot System"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6>
2"1">"2 Sur!ical assistants """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6>
2"1">"6 Heavy lifter""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 6>
2"1"B Military assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6>
2"1"D Police assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"1"D"1 Spyin! robot2""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"1"D"1 5obot micorobots:insects"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"1"F *!riculture an% fisheries assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"1"10 =e# forms of transport""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"1"11 Mana!er$s assistants""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"1"12 /ee pollination assistant"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"2 Eorkers Gin manufacturin!H"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"2"1 +n%ustrial robots""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"6 Eorkers Gin retail:service in%ustryH """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"6"1 /ur!er maker """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6B
2"4 Humanoi% robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D
2"5 Personal assistants"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D
2"5"1 8ranslators """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D
2"5"2 Ealkin! assistant""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D
2"5"6 Housemai%""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6D
6" .conomic issues an% concerns"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6F
6"1 @lorious abun%ance %oesn$t mean absence of scarcity"""""""""""""""""""""""""6F
6"2 Machines an% humans2 complements or substitutes;"""""""""""""""""""""""""""6F
6"6 3ost:benefit of robots:+8:technolo!y """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6F
6"6"1 3apital robots an% consumption robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6F
6"6"2 .conomics of %rones""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6F
6"4 Say$s la# an% robotics"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""6F
6"5 'verall increase in prosperity:luAury""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""40
6"5"1 Pro%uctivity an% !ro#th"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""40
6"5"1"1 8he May 2016 McJinsey report"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""40
6"5"2 +ncrease% eApectations"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""50
6"5"6 5eally lo# prices"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""50
6"5"4 Ca#s of investment #ill not chan!e"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""51
6"5"5 5isin! manufacturin! pro%uctivity"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""52
6"5"> +ncreasin! share of services in economic output"""""""""""""""""""""""""""52
6"> .ffect on innovation an% entrepreneurship""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""56
6">"1 Start1ups are cheaper"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""56
6"B .ffect on labour share""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""54
6"B"1 Eorkers$ bar!ainin! po#er si!nificantly re%ucin!"""""""""""""""""""""""""54
6"B"2 /ut labour share #as much lo#er in the past""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""54
6"B"6 +n%ustries #here si!nificant loss in labour share is occurrin!""""""""55
6"B"4 Most importantly& labour share is irrelevant"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""5>
6"D .ffect on jobs""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 5B
6"D"1 Derive% %eman% for resources an% labour"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">0
6"D"2 Many ne# jobs create% by technolo!y"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">1
6"D"2"1 Jin%s of ne# jobs create%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">2
6"D"2"1 =umber of ne# jobs create%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">2
6"D"2"1 +n%ustrial robotics has create% 650&000 ne# jobs"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">2
iv
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6"D"6 /ut job creation slo#er than job loss""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">6
6"D"4 More lo#1payin! jobs #ill be create%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">4
6"D"5 Jin%s of jobs that are in the process of !oin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">5
6"D"> ?obs #hich have !one"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">>
6"D">"1 Cibrary"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" >>
6"D">"1 Steve%ores""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" >B
6"D">"2 Minin! truck %rivers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">B
6"D">"6 +phone #orkers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">B
6"D">"1 Earehousin! #orkers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">B
6"D">"1 /anks""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" >D
6"D">"1 McDonal%$s cashiers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">D
6"D">"1 8elephone %irectory assistance"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">D
6"D">"1 Datacentre +8 staff"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">D
6"D"B ?obs #hich are neAt in line"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">D
6"D"B"1 'verall analysis"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">D
6"D"B"2 *%ministration:bureaucrats""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">D
6"D"B"1 3all centres an% help%esk"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""">F
6"D"B"2 Ca#yers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" >F
6"D"B"6 5etail"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" >F
6"D"B"4 /utchers GabattoirsH""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B0
6"D"B"5 Doctors""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B0
6"D"B"> 5eceptionists""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B0
6"D"B"1 3all centres"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B1
6"D"B"1 Pharmacies"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B1
6"D"B"2 4ruit harvesters""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B1
6"D"B"1 Dustin! crops #ith pestici%es"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B1
6"D"B"1 3leaners""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B1
6"D"B"1 Packa!e %elivery""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B1
6"D"B"1 Security !uar%s""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B1
6"D"B"2 *ssembly:packa!in! #orkers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B1
6"D"B"6 4armers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B2
6"D"B"1 Dairy farmers Grobotic %airyH"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B2
6"D"B"2 Pilots""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B2
6"D"B"1 4inancial services an% financial market tra%ers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B2
6"D"B"1 3onstruction in%ustry""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B2
6"D"B"1 Drummers: musicians"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B2
6"D"B"1 *!e carers GSocial *ssistive 5obotsH""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B2
6"D"B"1 Housemai%s""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B6
6"D"B"1 Ship repairers Gun%er#aterH""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B6
6"D"B"1 Easte %isposal """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B6
6"D"B"1 8ruck %rivers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B6
6"D"B"1 8aAi %rivers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B6
6"D"B"1 *stronauts"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B6
6"D"D ?obs #hich are mostly safe"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B6
6"D"D"1 +8 relate% """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B6
6"D"D"2 Plumbers """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B4
6"D"D"6 .lectricians """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B4
6"D"D"4 3onstruction in%ustry #orkers""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"D"D"5 Hair%ressers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B4
6"D"D"> @ar%eners """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B4
6"D"D"B 'l% a!e carers an% nurses """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"D"D"D Jey !overnment a!encies Gpolice& justice& %efenceH """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"D"D"F 3ome%ians""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" B4
6"F 8he flourishin! of creativity """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"F"1"1 3reative artists& #riters an% entertainers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"F"1"2 .Aercise an% fitness trainers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"F"1"6 +nterior %esi!ners""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"F"1"4 Lo!a teachers """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"F"1"5 Spiritual !urus """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"F"1"> Psycholo!ists an% social #orkers"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"10 8he challen!e for unskille% youth""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"11 .ffect on #a!es"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B4
6"11"1 4act2 5elative share of #a!es in @DP %ecline""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B5
6"11"2 Hypothesis2 =ot technolo!y but !lobalisation""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B>
6"11"6 Hypothesis2 Permanently re%uce% #a!es"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B>
v
6"11"4 Hypothesis2 #a!es may not fall"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B>
6"12 .ffect on employment""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""B>
6"12"1 8he less e%ucate% have less of a chance of fin%in! jobs no#"""""B>
6"12"2 Co#er labour participation"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BB
6"12"6 .mployment may not fall in the lon! run"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BB
6"12"6"1 8here coul% be short run pain""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BD
6"12"6"2 Hours #orke% by everyone may fall"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BD
6"16 +ncrease% ine0uality"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BD
6"16"1 Me%ian income barely !ro#in! """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""BF
6"16"1"1 KS* """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" BF
6"16"1"1 *ustralia""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" D0
6"16"2 Divi%e bet#een rich an% poor rapi%ly !ro#in!"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D0
6"16"6 Share of corporate profits risin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D1
6"14 .ffect on asset values""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D1
6"15 5out of the mi%%le class""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D1
6"1> .%ucation is the 4'K=D*8+'= of robotics:+8 revolution"""""""""""""""""""""D1
6"1B 5e%uce% traffic con!estion""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D2
6"1D 3han!in! !overnment services"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D2
4" Social Gan% political:le!alH conse0uences """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4
4"1 Eill liberate #omen"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4
4"2 .thics of robotics"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4
4"2"1 +saac *simovNs O8hree Ca#s of 5oboticsO"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4
4"2"2 Eill robots take over the #orl%;""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4
4"2"6 Humans shoul%n$t be %oin! such jobs any#ay""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D4
4"6 5e!ulatory impact: re!ulation of robots"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D5
4"6"1 Privacy issues """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D5
4"6"2 8he %issolution of the nation state""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D5
4"4 =ee% for appropriate market mechanisms& business mo%els an%
re!ulatory policy""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" D5
4"5 8he problems of the unemploye%""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D>
4"5"1 Meanin!lessness""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D>
4"5"2 Mass leisure""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D>
4"5"6 =e!ative effects of eApectorations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""D>
5" .ffect on nations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB
5"1 Develope% nations"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB
5"1"1 .ffect of robotics on KS*""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB
5"1"2 .ffect of robotics on *ustralia"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DB
5"2 Developin! nations""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD
5"2"1 .ffect of robotics on 3hina""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD
5"2"2 .ffect of robotics on +n%ia """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD
5"2"2"1 +n%ia has misse% the boat""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD
5"2"2"2 +n%ia has virtually no chance of bein! a manufacturin! nation no#"""""""""""""""""""""DD
5"2"2"6 +n%ia is !oin! to continue to lose top +8 talent to the Eest"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DD
5"2"2"1 5obotics research in +n%ia """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""DF
>" .conomics of eAtreme lon!evity Geven some form of immortalityH
"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F0
>"1 Pensions"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" F0
>"2 4urther rea%in! on the biolo!y:economics of immortality"""""""""""""""""""""""F1
B" Shoul% #e be concerne%; Shoul% the !overnment %o anythin!;F2
B"1 * ne# e0uilibrium #ill soon emer!e"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2
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B"2 Some !oo% policies"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2
B"2"1 @reater competition an% re!ulatory reform"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2
B"2"2 *ttract innovators:talent from across the #orl%"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2
B"2"2"1 8he eAo%us of talent from Silicon 7alley""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F2
B"2"2"1 =ee% for talent1frien%ly policies""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6
B"2"6 +f you %o nee% to spen% on innovation& spen% on
robotics:*+:nanotechnolo!y""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6
B"2"4 5etrainin!""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" F6
B"6 /a% policies """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" F6
B"6"1 Pro!ressive taAation"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6
B"6"2 5e%istribution """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6
B"6"2"1 3itiIen$s income"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F6
D" 5eferences""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4
D"1 Jey blo!s on robotics""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4
D"2 .conomics of a robotic economy"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4
D"6 Science of robotics""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""F4
D"4 .thics of robotics"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""FB
vii
1" 4rom aroun% 2000 *D2 the .arly 5obotic *!e
%obert &olo!, !ho !on the $obel 'rize in 1()* for his macroeconomic research on
economic gro!th, inclding on the role of technology, says that +advances in
technology al!ays thro! people ot of !ork,, bt that +the economic history so far is
that aggregate employment-and employment at rising !ages-has not sffered.,
.&orce/
01an is the lo!est2cost, 1"#2pond, nonlinear, all2prpose compter system !hich
can be mass2prodced by nskilled labor0 $A&A 31(4"5.
8he #ritin! is on the #all" 8he #orl% is chan!in! very rapi%ly an% #e nee% to start
thinkin! about it& partiucalarly from the economic policy perspective"
+t #as not just a transformation of technolo!y from huntin!1!atherin! to a!riculture
that le% to civilisation" 8he transformation ha% to be supporte% by a fe# key factors2
aH a crop sufficiently stur%y to be store% for years Ge"!" #heat:riceHP
bH %omestic animals that provi%e% both protein an% animal horsepo#erP an%
cH sufficient surplus in foo% pro%uction to allo# enou!h creative humans to think of
innovative #ays to %o thin!s Gsuch as smelt metalH"
8he a!ricultural revolution provi%e% a 35.*8+7. D+7+D.=D throu!h the surplus so
pro%uce% (see2 ?are% Diamon%$s @uns& @erms an% Steel)"
Eith the in%ustrial a!e #e no# nee% only 2 per cent of humankin% to ten% to
a!riculture" 8he remainin! FD per cent %o other creative thin!s"
Eith the robotic a!e& #e #ill nee% less than 0"1 per cent of humankin% to pro%uce
foo%" *ll others& FF"F per cent& #ill be able to en!a!e in creative #ork"
8hat is #hy the 5obot *!e #ill be the a!e of @lorious 3reativity" +t #ill also be the
a!e #here stupi% nations like +n%ia& %etermine% to pro%uce roa%s by han%&
%etermine% not to let !o their small1villa!e a!ricultural herita!e& #ill become 7*S8CL
P''5.5 compare% to those Glike 3hinaH #ho a%opt the 5obotic 5evolution"
M M M
?ulian Simon al#ays sai% that the Human /rain is the Kltimate 5esource" *n% he
#as ri!ht"
+Nve spent some time over the past #eek in analysis of the issues involve% in the
5obotic *!e an% althou!h + havenNt articulate% my conclusions in any %etaile% form
yet& an% +Nm still rea%in! an% thinkin!& +Nm no# ER! confi%ent that there is
='8H+=@ 8' /. 3'=3.5=.D */'K8 Gabout the 5obotic *!eH for those nations
"hich follo" high #uality governance and economic policies. G8his& of course&
rules out a !oo% future for nations like +n%ia #ith socialist policiesH"
Stron! a%justments are at #ork in the #orl% to%ay" The $E! shift is to"ards t"o
main industries% &T and creative.
+n the rush to blame robots an% +8 for loss of jobs& people are for!ettin! that the rich
are beginning to pay significant amounts of money for NsoftN eApertise #hich
improves their <K*C+8L of life" 8his inclu%es personal fitness coaches& personal life
coaches& yo!a teachers& an% spiritual a%visers"8he arts are also flourishin!" More
museums& more pro%uction of art" More music& more sports"
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+ believe that 4'5 8H'S. 3'K=85+.S #hich follo# !oo% !overnance an%
competitive policies& there lies an era of SKP.515+3H.S ahea%"
8here #ill likely be some further increase in ine0uality but letNs not for!et that
ine0uality is =.7.5 an issue" 8he key issue is human flourishin!" *n% that seems
!uarantee% Q for those nations #hich keep their economies fit& lean an% a!ile"
A flourishing creative class "ill ta(e the )mid*tier) +obs earlier ta(en by the non*
creative boring cler(s and managers. ,ilbert is dead.
Eithin each clerk is a sin!er: #riter: poet or artist" +t is time to #ake up your creative
inner bein!" 'r you can choose to be a ner%" /oth ner%s an% creative people #ill
earn #ell"
8hose #ho are neither ner%s nor creative #ill be come S.57*=8S of the rich"
=othin! #ron! #ith that" /y servants + mean the service in%ustry Q #aiters: nurses:
a!e% care #orkers: !ar%eners:hair%ressers& etc"
,oes the government have to do anything-
+ firmly oppose the i%eas of socialists like Paul Jru!man #ho are tryin! to increase
socialist policies an% further %estroy KS* in the !uise of solvin! the NunemploymentN
problem arisin! from the 5obotic *!e" Such people shoul%& instea%& ask the youn! to
re1skill themselves Q an% spen% more effort in the creative fiel%s"
5emember& lo# en% jobs are still lucrative in terms of purchasin! po#er& as 0uality of
pro%ucts increases an% prices fall (Peter Schiff)
8his book is a #arnin! to anyone #ho #ants !overnment bureaucrats an% politicians
to me%%le #ith the ne# economy" *=L K==.3.SS*5L M.DDC+=@ #ill lea% to
seriously harmful conse0uences"
Cet the market #ork out #hich kin%s of jobs it #ants an% re#ar%" 8his is kno#n as
creative %estruction Gor #hat + call in /4= Gonline notesH& creative replacement"
Peter Schiff$s vie#2
aH http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR'*<vkB#I*u4 8his is short an% crisp summary
of key issues relate% #ith robotics" 5obotics is ='8 fun%amentally %ifferent to any
other technolo!ical chan!e of the past" Ehat it #ill %o is prompt a ra%ical shift
to#ar%s more useful:creative #ork" 8here #ill =.7.5 be a time #hen creative Gpai%H
#ork comes to an en%" +f nothin! else& people #ill pay to #atch !oo% computer !ame
players 1 as they %o in S"Jorea"
bH *lso here2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR44yIn1
y33JDUtR2F0
+n my vie# the !reatest problem to the ne# economy #ill be re%istributive policies of
the !overnment #hich prevent rea%justment of people to creative or service1oriente%
jobs"
So let$s be!in our analysis of these assertions by startin! out #ith a classic 5obinson
3aruso eAample" Mr" 3aruso is alone on his islan% an% he must pro%uce everythin!
necessary for his survival an% comfort by himself" Mr" 3aruso must fish for foo%&
buil% a house& procure #ater for %rinkin! an% cookin!& farm a fiel% for crops& #eave
his o#n clothin!& etc"" etc""
Ehat #oul% happen if one %ay a plane fle# over his islan% an% parachute% him a
fishin! robot; 8he robot coul% fish for him& procurin! fish 24 hours a %ay B %ays a
#eek" Does anyone think Mr" 3aruso #oul% be upset by this; Eoul%n$t the robot
free him to focus on all the other tasks that are necessary for his survival;
Ehat if #e no# !ave Mr" 3aruso an entire army of robots capable of fishin!&
#eavin!& buil%in!& etc"" etc"" Eoul% this leave Mr" 3aruso #ithout anythin! to %o; 'f
.
course not" Mr" 3aruso coul% no# focus on even further improvements to his
con%ition& beyon% #hat the robots are alrea%y provi%in! him #ith" He mi!ht #ork on
creatin! an air con%itionin! system& or art for the #alls of his home& or solvin! some
other problem that the robots have not yet been pro!ramme% to solve" =ot until
every sin!le problem facin! humanity as a #hole has been solve% #oul% Mr" 3aruso
be left #ithout somethin! pro%uctive to %o"
/ecause robots are not capable of comin! up #ith novel solutions to human
problems& an% because human problems are virtually limitless& humans #ill al#ays
have somethin! pro%uctive they coul% be %oin!" 5obots #ill never be able to replace
the creativity of the human min%& #hich re0uires a consciousness not present in any
machine" (Source)
'.'.' Autonomous economy
,E" /rian *rthur& a visitin! researcher at the VeroA Palo *lto 5esearch 3enter$s
intelli!ence systems lab an% a former economics professor at Stanfor% Kniversity&
calls it the ,autonomous economy"- (Source)
1"2 7i%eo intro%uction to the issues
5affaello DN*n%rea2 8he astoun%in! athletic po#er of 0ua%copters"
5obert Hanson an% Martin 4or%
.rik /rynjolfsson
*n%re# Mc*ffee
+ ten% to si%e broa%ly #ith Hanson an% Peter Schiff"
1"6 *!ricultural a!e as a major %iscontinuity from the huntin!
!atherin! a!e
8his innovation allo#e% mankin% to si!nificantly increase in population an%
kno#le%!e" /ut this #as nothin! compare% #ith the %iscontinuity #hich came #ith
the in%ustrial a!e in aroun% 1B50 *D"
4rom about 2000 *D& another si!nificant %iscontinuity has occurre% #ith robotics an%
*+& allo#in! further si!nificant increases in pro%uctivity" * schematic %ia!ram is
provi%e% belo# to illustrate the concept"
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'./.'.' The Artilect Age
8here is a vie# that the neAt sta!e after robotics is artilects in #hich robots become
millions of times more intelli!ent than humans& lea%in! to the ,*rtilect Ear- G,artificial
intellect-H" 8his vie#& by Hu!o %e @aris& is eAtremely controversial"
His i%ea is that just like #e slap mos0uitoes& the artilects mi!ht 9slap$ us if #e
become a pest"
+ %isa!ree fun%amentally #ith this concept" *rtilects can$t be 9risky$ to mankin% since
they %o not have a M'8+7*8+'= GemotionalH to become better off" 8hey %o not have
a 9soul$& either" 8hey #ill therefore al#ays remain as our %utiful servants" 8he key to
success is a%aptability& an% it very unlikely that *+:artilects #ill have sufficient
a%aptability"
8he richness an% %iversity of human motivation entirely %istin!uishes us from
robots:artilets" +f any harm is cause%& it #ill be throu!h a human bein! #ho misuses
the artilects for personal !ain"
1"4 *re there any 9har% limits$ on a%vances in robotics:*+;
'.0.' 1ard"are limits
'.0.'.' 2ilicon computer have limits
/y 2020 intelli!ence #ill be every#here Gubi0uitous computin!H& embe%%e% in
everythin!"
5obotics is base% on the S+C+3'= chip" +t is limite% by Moore$s la# an% the la#s of
thermo%ynamics" ,Moore$s Ca# states that the number of transistors on a chip
%oubles every 1D months" 8his tren% has been vali% for over 40 years an% is likely to
continue until aroun% 2020& by #hich time #e #ill be able to place one bit of
information on a sin!le atom" 8hese atom1bits #ill be able to s#itch their state Ga 0 or
a 1H in femtosecon%s& #hich are 0ua%rillionths G1015H times of a secon%" 8here are a
trillion& trillion G1024H atoms in a han%hel% object& such as an apple& so potentially& the
information processin! capacity of such an object #oul% be about 1040 bits per
secon%" 3ompare this number #ith the estimate% e0uivalent of the human brain&
#hich is about 101> bits per secon%& or a trillion& trillion times smaller"- (Source)"
8here is a possibility that silicon computers #ill start facin! constraints in the neAt
fe# years"
'.0.'.' 3olecular computers
8he neAt sta!e is molecular computers"
http2::###"kurI#eilai"net:another1breakthrou!h1in1replacin!1silicon1in1transistors
'.0.'.. 4uantum computers "ill brea(through to an unbelievable level
8his involves manipulatin! bits at the atomic level" Ho#ever& !iven 0uantum physics&
even a sin!le particle of san% can be a million trillion times more po#erfully than the
human brain" (Hu!o %e @aris& http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRl.a*i%3mAus& at the
415 minutes mark)"
<uantum 3omputers *nimate%2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR82DVrs0'pHK
,Stanfor% Kniversity announce% that scientists there ha% mana!e% to enco%e the
letters ,S- an% ,K- #ithin the interference patterns of 0uantum electron #aves" +n
other #or%s& they #ere able to enco%e %i!ital information #ithin particles smaller than
atoms"- (Source)
0
'.0.'.' Nanocomputers
=anotechnolo!y is molecular scale en!ineerin!" +t is the continuin! a%vance of
silicon an% 0uantum computin! that #ill lea% to nano1computers& that are so small
they operate at the molecular level"
,Henri Markram$s #ork in S#itIerlan%& every neural connection is kno#n in a sin!le
cortical column of a rat brain$s corteA" G* rat has about a thousan% such columns&
each consistin! of about 10&000 hi!hly interconnecte% neurons& an% the human brain
contains about a million"H- (Source)
'.0.. 2oft"are limits
'.0...' Artificial intelligence
Les& there seems to be no possibility for the creation of a computer as smart an%
creative as a human Gan% #ith consciousnessH"
Ehile computers #ill %efinitely become ten billion times smarter than us #ithin 60150
years& it remains a moot 0uestion #hen theyNll start buil%in! smarter computers on
their o#n"
+ suspect theyNll al#ays nee% human N!ui%anceN till #e finally un%erstan% the
un%erlyin! 0ualities of the human brain: consciousness" /ut this sta!e shoul% not be
rule%" +f it %oes occur& then humans #ill be 0uickly over1sha%o#e% by machines" /ut +
%on$t #ish to !o there Q for this is a book about robotic economics not about science
fiction"
3omputational po#er %oes not necessarily e0uate to computational intelli!ence" *
computer mi!ht be able to calculate 1W2 in a nano secon% but that %oesnNt
necessarily means it un%erstan%s #hat 1W2 means or #hy it is %oin! it" *nyone #ho
has actually #orke% #ith any form of *+ #ill tell you that most intelli!ence #e %esi!n
ri!ht no# #orks throu!h brute force GmostlyH" 3reativity is a bit more compleA& it is
takin! seemin!ly unrelate% concepts t#o create ne# concepts& this is more
complicate%" Ee are tryin! to !et aroun% this by mo%ellin! the human brain in virtual
space"
* lot of manufacturin! jobs coul% be taken over& but service jobs #ill be maintaine%
as humans for the foreseeable future" (3omment2 Source)
+t #oul% appear that robotics #ill nee% to break the creativity barrier before humans
become really useless as #orkers"
8o #atch2 *rtificial intelli!ence sin!ularity Gby JurI#eilH
8he Sin!ularity +s =ear
Michio Jaku on 8he Sin!ularity
S+=@KC*5+8L (2016) 5ise of the Machines #ith 5ay JurI#eil an% Stephen Ha#kin!
Paul 5oot Eolpe %isa!rees Gvi%eoH" Society is too compleA" 8hin!s are al#ays much
more compleA than #hat #e think they are" 4irst the !enomes& then the proteins&
no# epi!enetics& an% so on" Ee still aren$t !ettin! the benefits of the !enome project
since thin!s like D=*:the brain are far more compleA than #e thou!ht they #ere"
8his can be calle% the 9compleAity fallout$" Sin!ularity si!nificantly simplifies the
compleAity of biolo!y"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5
Diaman%is pre%icts that artificial intelli!ence G*+H similar to iPhone$s Siri #ill be
responsible for takin! jobs from humans in the near future"
,*+ can to%ay %o most of the thin!s that humans can %o& they can think better than
humans& they can translate an% un%erstan% D5 lan!ua!es an% they can rea% an%
#rite so it is pre%icte% that they #ill take 50 per cent of human$s jobs in 10 years&-
sai% Diaman%is" (Source)
'.0...' 6b+ect recognition
8his is the sta!e #hen computers can reco!nise !eneric objects Ge"!" a cupH" 8aken
further& this inclues facial reco!nition"
https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR0o6Phr5DiBM
'.0.... 3achine learning
+n this computers learn on their o#n
'.0.../ Rat 7rain simulation
,8o%ay& thanks to Henri Markram$s #ork in S#itIerlan%& every neural connection is
kno#n in a sin!le cortical column of a rat brain$s corteA" G* rat has about a thousan%
such columns& each consistin! of about 10&000 hi!hly interconnecte% neurons& an%
the human brain contains about a million"H
8his %etaile% connectivity kno#le%!e has been put into supercomputers& so that
computer1savvy neuroscientists can perform eAperiments in a computer& that is&
con%uct ,e1neuroscience"- So a supercomputer #ill be able to perform the same
functions as a rat$s cortical column& but a million times fasterQat electronic spee%s
compare% to the rat$s chemical spee%s" 4ollo#in! Moore$s Ca#& the #hole rat brain
#ill be thus simulate% #ithin a %eca%e& an% the human brain a %eca%e or t#o later"-
(Source)
'.0...0 1uman 7rain 8ro+ect
,8he Human /rain Project GH/PH is a research project #hich aims to simulate the
human brain #ith supercomputers to better un%erstan% ho# it functions" 8he en%
hopes of the H/P inclu%e bein! able to mimic the human brain usin! computers an%
bein! able to better %ia!nose %ifferent brain problems"- (Source)
'.0...5 4uantum computer programming
Pro!rammin! 0uantum computers are particularly har% to pro!ram2
http2::!iImo%o"com:#hy1pro!rammin!1a10uantum1computer1is1so1%amn1har%1
11DD61>0D>
1"5 8hree key scenarios
Sin!ularity %iscussions seem to be splittin! up into three major schools of thou!ht2
*cceleratin! 3han!e& the .vent HoriIon& an% the +ntelli!ence .Aplosion"
Accelerating Change%
o 6ore claim7 'ur intuitions about chan!e are linearP #e eApect rou!hly
as much chan!e as has occurre% in the past over our o#n lifetimes"
/ut technolo!ical chan!e fee%s on itself& an% therefore accelerates"
3han!e to%ay is faster than it #as 500 years a!o& #hich in turn is
9
faster than it #as 5000 years a!o" 'ur recent past is not a reliable
!ui%e to ho# much chan!e #e shoul% eApect in the future"
o &trong claim7 8echnolo!ical chan!e follo#s smooth curves& typically
eAponential" 8herefore #e can pre%ict #ith fair precision #hen ne#
technolo!ies #ill arrive& an% #hen they #ill cross key threshol%s& like
the creation of *rtificial +ntelli!ence"
o Advocates7 5ay JurI#eil& *lvin 8offlerG;H& ?ohn Smart
Event 1ori:on%
o 6ore claim7 4or the last hun%re% thousan% years& humans have been
the smartest intelli!ences on the planet" *ll our social an%
technolo!ical pro!ress #as pro%uce% by human brains" Shortly&
technolo!y #ill a%vance to the point of improvin! on human
intelli!ence Gbrain1computer interfaces& *rtificial +ntelli!enceH" 8his #ill
create a future that is #eir%er by far than most science fiction& a
%ifference1in1kin% that !oes beyon% amaIin! shiny !a%!ets"
o &trong claim7 8o kno# #hat a superhuman intelli!ence #oul% %o& you
#oul% have to be at least that smart yourself" 8o kno# #here Deep
/lue #oul% play in a chess !ame& you must play at Deep /lue$s level"
8hus the future after the creation of smarter1than1human intelli!ence
is absolutely unpre%ictable"
o Advocates7 7ernor 7in!e
&ntelligence Explosion%
o 6ore claim7 +ntelli!ence has al#ays been the source of technolo!y" +f
technolo!y can significantly improve on human intelli!ence Q create
min%s smarter than the smartest eAistin! humans Q then this closes
the loop an% creates a positive fee%back cycle" Ehat #oul% humans
#ith brain1computer interfaces %o #ith their au!mente% intelli!ence;
'ne !oo% bet is that they$% %esi!n the neAt !eneration of brain1
computer interfaces" +ntelli!ence enhancement is a classic tippin!
pointP the smarter you !et& the more intelli!ence you can apply to
makin! yourself even smarter"
o &trong claim7 8his positive fee%back cycle !oes 4''M& like a chain of
nuclear fissions !one critical Q each intelli!ence improvement
tri!!erin! an avera!e ofX1"000 further improvements of similar
ma!nitu%e Q thou!h not necessarily on a smooth eAponential
path#ay" 8echnolo!ical pro!ress %rops into the characteristic
timescale of transistors Gor super1transistorsH rather than human
neurons" 8he ascent rapi%ly sur!es up#ar% an%
creates sperintelligenceGmin%s or%ers of ma!nitu%e more po#erful
than humanH before it hits physical limits"
o Advocates7 +" ?" @oo%& .lieIer Lu%ko#sky
'.5.'.' &.;. Good<s &ntelligence explosion concept
8his is also kno# as Nhar% takeoffN or N*+1!o14''MN"
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+" ?" @oo%$s thesis of the ,intelli!ence eAplosion- states that a sufficiently a%vance%
machine intelli!ence coul% buil% a smarter version of itself& #hich coul% in turn buil%
an even smarter version& an% that this process coul% continue to the point of vastly
eAcee%in! human intelli!ence" (Source2 http2::intelli!ence"or!:files:+.M"p%f)
,+" ?" @oo% #as the one #ho su!!este% the notion of an ,intelli!ence eAplosion- %ue
to the positive fee%back of a smart min% makin! itself even smarter" =umerous other
*+ researchers believe somethin! similar- (Source)
8his is oppose% by a vie# G,@eneral +ntelli!ence 8heorem- Y la @re! .!anH #hich
says that nothin! 0ualitatively smarter than a human can eAist"- (Source)"
1"> Con! term structural chan!e in *ustralia
Source
8he lon! term effects of the in%ustrial revolution on *ustralia" + believe Gthis i%ea has
to be teste%H that in the 5obotic *!e employment in manufacturin! #ill collapse to
aroun% 2 per cent& in a!riculture to aroun% 0"2 per cent& an% minin! to 0"2 per cent"
Services is #here employment #ill nee% to come from"
8he minin! sector in *ustralia is a classic eAample of ho# output is increasin! #ith
fe#er employees" 8his tren% is no# si!nificantly spee%in! up"
>
Ehich services are !ro#in!& #hich are fallin! in *ustralia Glon! term tren%sH2
Source
So& #hat #ill happen in the 5obotic *!e; + believe Gthis is to be teste% an% further
consi%ere%H that Personal Services #ill likely skyrocket Gpersonal trainers& house
keepers& !ar%eners& personal life coaches& yo!a teachers& etc"HP 3onstruction an%
%istribution an% utilities services #ill shrink %ramatically as robots take over much of
the #ork& Social services #ill shrink as e%ucation:health becomes robotise%"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ?
1"B +n%ustrial machines supplemente% muscle" 5obots
supplement our senses an% brains
=e# terms are bein! coine% to reflect our speculations about the ne# a!e that is
%a#nin! upon us as #e speak"
,li!hts out- in%icates that robotic factories can #ork #ithout li!htsP
,%i!ital %ivi%e- refers to the !ap bet#een those #ho have %i!ital mastery an%
those #ho %on$tP
,en% of #ork- represents a vie# that there #ill be no more #ork left after
robots 9take over$ all the #ork in this #orl%"
Ehether #e like it or not& #e are no# in a ne# epoch" *%am Smith #oul% fin% many
similarities to his a!e but there are key %ifferences he #oul% take some time to
un%erstan%"
3omputers:robots are no# not just !ettin! cheaper& they are !ettin! more capable"
8hat capability is the key to the robotic a!e" Pro%uctivity is increasin! %ramatically
even as jobs are fallin! rapi%ly"
Much of this is a continuation of the same tren% that starte% in 1B50" /ut there is
somethin! ne# about this"
8he key is that machines no# sense the environment an% respon% to it %ynamically"
8hey are not static any lon!er"
1"D 8he 9comin! of a!e$ of robots
Ehile most humanoi% robots are not very useful yet& many other robots are
commercially viable" 3omputation has become cheaper GMoore$s la#H" 3amera
prices have fallen %ramatically Ginitially Z50&000H Q %ue to consumer revolution"
3omputer vision has increase%" Soft#are has improve%" 8he usability threshol% has
been crosse%" 5eal robots have real users"
.arly forms of robots have been #ith us since aroun% 1F>0& but perhaps 2000
rou!hly marks the onset of the .arly 5obotic *!e"
Please spen% 15 minutes on this talk by *n%re# Mc*fee& co1author of 5ace *!ainst
the Machine" + am optimistic alon! #ith him about the future but there are very
si!nificant issues that nee% to be articulate% an% un%erstoo%& an% many policy
concepts clarifie%"
'.>.' @hat are robots-
* machine #as bra#n an% muscle" +t multiplie% the po#er of our muscles" +t coul%
not& ho#ever& ,see- or other#ise i%entify objects" 5obots can ,see- an% %istin!uish
bet#een objects in a non1mechanical #ay" 8hey rely on some form of %i!ital
9perception$ or intelli!ence"
8he sortin! machine in a post office is therefore a GprimitiveH robot"
8he *8M machine is similarly a robot"
8he automatic check1in machine Gfor ticket:lu!!a!eH at the airport is a robot"
8he self1checkout at the supermarket is a robot"
* smelter at a steel plant is not a robot"
8he reporter& Steve Jroft& %iscusse% a ne# %efinition of robots an% robotics in sharp
'A
%isa!reement from the %efinitions pose% by the +nternational 4e%eration of 5obots2
Steve Jroft sai%& O8he broa% universal %efinition is a machine that can perform the
job of a human" 8he machine can be mobile or stationary& har%#are or soft#are"O
8his is %ifferent than the robotic industry)s most recent tentative definition of
service robots #hich& in short& says the follo#in!2
* robot is an actuate% mechanism programmable in t"o or more axes "ith
a degree of autonomy& movin! #ithin its environment& to perform inten%e%
tasks" *utonomy in this conteAt means the ability to perform inten%e% tasks
base% on current state an% sensin!& #ithout human intervention"
* robot has to have at least t#o %e!rees of free%om plus autonomy"
5'/'8
* fully autonous car G2 %e!rees of free%om GDo4HP steerin! an% transmissionH #oul%
0ualify for a mobile robot as #oul% 6D printers"
='8 5'/'8
/ut a #ashin! machine G1 aAisP 1 Do4H& airline or other kiosk& or a%aptive cruise
control Gall #hich coul% be consi%ere% as 1 Do4H #oul% not fall un%er the cate!ory of
robots" (Source)
'.>.. 3aturation of many related technolgies
*lthou!h the 5obotic *!e primarily refers to robots& it is shorthan% for the &T*based
revolution that is no# comin! of a!e in a lar!e number of relate% %isciplines" *
C*5@. number of technolo!ies are no# S+MKC8*=.'KSCL M*8K5+=@" 8his is a
very eAcitin! time in human history"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ''
'.>...' Genome mapping
4or those not yet convince% that M*SS+7. 8.3H='C'@+3*C 3H*=@. is
un%er#ay Gan% yes& robotics is no# !oin! to have 5.*C effects on the economyH&
this is an eAample of the spee% of pro!ress" Human !enome costs have fallen from
Z100 million per !enome to less than ZBJ per !enome"
Ghttp2::###"!enome"!ov:se0uencin!costs:H" +n just 11 years"
'.>.... /*, printing
61D printin! is a key part of the robotics a!e& since it allo#s pro%uction of entire
!oo%s #ithout any %irect human intervention"
https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRveHK0[S%b=.
'.>.../ 7iological computers
8hese are no# able to store %ata an% also perform calculations2
Stora!e2 ,the research team store% five files \ totalin! about B50 kilobytes of %ata
\ as D=*2 all 154 of Shakespeare$s sonnets Ga teAt fileH& Eatson an% 3rick$s classic
1F56 paper %escribin! the structure of D=* Ga PD4H& a color photo!raph Ga ?P.@H
an% a 2>1secon% eAcerpt from Martin Cuther Jin!$s 1F>6 ,+ Have a Dream- speech
Gan MP6H" (Source)
http2::me%"stanfor%"e%u:ism:2016:march:bil1!ates"html
'.>...0 Neural net"or(s
'.>...5 Recreation of detailed map of the brain
4irst the human !enome #as create%" =o# the full map an% repro%uction of the brain
is un%er#ay"
http2::###"te%"com:talks:henrySmarkramSsupercomputin!StheSbrainSsSsecrets"html
'.
'.>...' Busion
Proven prototypes of fusion Gi"e" en%less ener!yH are no# not more than 20 years
a#ay"
8he technolo!y is no# FF per cent there" 4inal t#eaks an% a prototype are left"
.Apect fusion in 10 years maA"
'.>...' NanotechnologyCnanorobots
=anorobots are *C5.*DL there 1 but nee% a little bit more shrinka!e" GCike #e use%
bullocks to carry our stuff& #e no# use bacteria to propel these robotsH"
8his is a most fascinatin! vi%eo2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR<nnb.sLF6V4
1"F Ehat can robots %o;
5obots can no# %o most thin!s that humans can& even if not al#ays very #ell" /ut
some thin!s they can %o many times better than humans can"
.Aamples are outline% belo#" Do see some of the linke% vi%eos"
'.?.' 8hysical
'.?.'.' .*legged robots can "al( in the midst of people and on rough
surfaces
*S+M' 20112 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRIulD*3j[+1D
*lso& *tlas the Penta!on robot"
'.?.'.. 0*legged robots can run faster than humans
8his robot G3heetahH runs at 2F miles per hour"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '/
'.?.'./ 0*legged robots can carry loads and "al( faster uphill than humans
5obotic %onkey GD*5P* 1 *lphaDo! Ce!!e% S0ua% Support System GCS6HH
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR!'kV5V[+4As
Donkey that thro#s objects2
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR2jvCalL>ubc
(/i!Do! han%les heavy objects" 8he !oal is to use the stren!th of the le!s an% torso
to help po#er motions of the arm" 8his sort of %ynamic& #hole1bo%y approach to
manipulation is use% routinely by human athletes an% #ill enhance the performance
of a%vance% robots" /oston Dynamics is %evelopin! the control an% actuation
techni0ues nee%e% for %ynamic manipulation" 8he cin%erblock #ei!hs about 65 lbs
an% the best thro# is a bit more than 1B ft" 8he research is fun%e% by the *rmy
5esearch CaboratoryNs 538* pro!ram")
'.?.'.0 Extreme athleticism in runningCflying
Seein! is believin!"
5affaello DN*n%rea2 8he astoun%in! athletic po#er of 0ua%copters"
'.?.'.5 Can +ump /A feet
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR>b4[[<kc=.o
'.?.'.' Can fight and D(ill< other robots
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRE6!.oJ44Va<
'.?.'.' Can dance Cplay games
5obots no# %ance& an% play soccer an% pin! pon!" 3hina is a%vancin! rapi%ly in
robotics"
."!" table tennis2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRtS0=6%!L@0.
Dancin! robots2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR4t1=EH>@1f0
4encin!2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvRkJJ<<KM/0ts
'.?.. ,exterity
'.?...' Can bounce balls and catch ob+ects "ith fingers
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRHS15152i0@4
'.?.... 1ave extremely fine Dhand*eye< coordination
Kniversal robots are no# able to perform eAtremely fine 9han%1eye$ coor%ination
tasks #ith very little trainin!"
'.?...' Can drive trains
5obotics an% +8 have replace% thousan%s of train %rivers across the #orl%" * full list
of %riverless trains2 http2::en"#ikipe%ia"or!:#iki:CistSofS%riverlessStrainsU*sia
'.?.... Can drive cars and truc(s and fly planes
@oo!le has an unmanne%:%riverless car:s an% 465 is the last manne% fi!hter jet"
http2::###"economist"com:no%e:1DF5D4DB
Hal 7arian says2 ,5ich people have chauffeurs& but + think that in 10 years #e #ill all
have chauffeurs Q robotic chauffeurs Q because the technolo!y has a%vance% to the
point #here it is absolutely real1#orl% stuff"- (Source)
'0
O8he cab came floatin! %o#n out of the sky at the intersection an% maneuvere% itself
to rest at the curb neAt to them #ith a finicky precision" 8here #as& of course& nobo%y
in itP like everythin! else in the #orl% re0uirin! an +"<" of less than 150& it #as
computer1controlle%"O (?ames /lish$s * Cife for the Stars G1F>2H)"(Source) Eell& this
time is no# arrivin! 7.5L 4*S8" EhatNs to be %one #ith those #ho canNt %esi!n
thin!s;
'.?...' Can fly helicopeter upside do"n
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR*L4ajbuS@6k Gthat #as 2011H"
'.?./ erbal
'.?./.' Can tal(
* talkin! robot #as launche% into space in *u!ust 2016" Eatch the short movie" *lso
see the //3 report2 http2::###"bbc"co"uk:ne#s:#orl%1asia1265>5121
'.?./.. Can sing
Sin!in! robot2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRmfAkhI@0[+s
'.?.0 Creative
'.?.0.' Can s(etch and ma(e oil paintings Ee,avidF
http2::###"informatik"uni1konstanI"%e:en:e%avi%:vi%eos:
'.?.0.' Can ma(e music EbandsF
Sin!in! robot2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRmfAkhI@0[+s
5obot music ban%2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR65/Sk01SStD
'.?.' Cognitive computing
,researchers there are alrea%y testin! ne# !enerations of Eatson in me%icine&
#here the technolo!y coul% help physicians %ia!nose %iseases like cancer& evaluate
patients& an% prescribe treatments"
,+/M likes to call it co!nitive computin!" .ssentially& Eatson uses artificial1
]intelli!ence techni0ues& a%vance% natural1lan!ua!e processin! an% analytics& an%
massive amounts of %ata %ra#n from sources specific to a !iven application Gin the
case of health care& that means me%ical journals& teAtbooks& an% information
collecte% from the physicians or hospitals usin! the systemH" 8hanks to these
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '5
innovative techni0ues an% hu!e amounts of computin! po#er& it can 0uickly come up
#ith ,a%vice-\for eAample& the most recent an% relevant information to !ui%e a
%octor$s %ia!nosis an% treatment %ecisions"- (Source)
1"10 Major si!ns that the robotic a!e is upon us
'.'A.' 2ignificant acceleration in capability
'.'A.'.' Already "e have a computer e#ual to human brain in processing
po"er
+n 2012& the first computer that crosse% the human brainNs processin! capacity G1>
petaflopsH #as built"
'.'A.'.' 8redictions
+ a!ree broa%ly #ith JurI#eil$s har%#are pre%ictions2
by 201F even a Z1&000 computer #ill match the processin! po#er of the human
brain"
1

#ithin 20 years the fastest computer #ill be thousan%s of times OsmarterO than
humans
by 2055 a Z1&000 computer #ill match the processin! po#er of *CC human
brains on .arth"
'n the soft#are si%e& *+ is almost en%less in its pro!ress& accor%in! to JurI#eil"
/ill @ates %oesn$t a!ree #ith JurI#eil2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
vRjmiDJEB![b.
My tentative vie# is that at some point computers #ill %esi!n most future
improvements as they become capable of self1learnin!"
JurI#eil then combines these a%vances #ith those of biotechnolo!y an%
nanotechnolo!y to su!!est immortality2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
vR.tataC%0=v#
'.'A.'.. 2ignificant acceleration Esecond half of the chessboardF
8he secon% half of the chessboar% is an eAcellent analo!y for the situation currently
bein! eAperience% in the #orl% of robotics" 5obotics has no# become palpable" Ee
are a#are of it" /ut this is not even the be!innin!"
.Apect %ramatic chan!e every t#o years"
1

http2::en"#ikipe%ia"or!:#iki:8imelineSofStheSfutureSinSforecastsU*rtificialSintelli!enc
eSan%Srobotics
'9
'.'A.'./ 2ignificant acceleration in A&
8he key to the 5obotic *!e is the si!nificant rampin! up of artificial intelli!ence
Gsoft#areH"
'.'A.. The commercial case for robots
5obots are not just more po#erful& they are really cheap"
'.'A...' ,ramatically falling robot prices
*s a result in re%uction in key technolo!ies Ge"!" cameras: soft#are to analyse %ataH&
ne# materials& robot prices have %roppe% massively over the past %eca%e"
'.'A.... The rise of the multi*purpose robot
8his is a robot that %oesn$t nee% pro!rammin! an% can be locally traine%& like one
trains a #orker"
* summary2 http2::###"everythin!1robotic"com:2016:05:rethink1robotics1baAter1an%1
universal"html
'.'A.../ 3any other advantages of robots
,a machine that never !oes on strike& never %eman%s a #a!e hike& %oesnNt ask for a
bi!!er %ormitory an% is not too picky about the foo% in the canteen"- (Source)
Tim2% OMy company %esi!ns an% buil%s custom automate% manufacturin!
e0uipment& #ith many platforms utiliIin! various forms of Nrobots"N *ll this automation
%oes accomplish many thin!s& #ith the !reatest !ains bein! repeatable an%
repro%ucible process capability& hi!her 0uality& lo#er scrap rates& an% thus lo#er
costs" +n the overall scheme& in factories #ith hi!h labor costs& automation is the
name of the !ame for hi!h volume pro%uction" +n factories #ith lo# labor costs& semi1
automatic or totally manual labor is the economic solution" Pro%uct cost is tie% to
overhea%& materials& labor an% e0uipment costs" 8he bottom line tren% is the
manufacturin! factory is becomin! more an% more automate% an% hi!her1tech" +f
people can manoeuvre smart phones an% the like& then + think the brain po#er is out
there for the hi!h1tech factory #orker" Mankin% is evolvin!" 8he last 100 years sho#s
the eAponential rate of our technolo!ical !ro#th"O (Source)
'.'A./ Evidence of commercial deployment
'.'A./.' 2i:e of robotics industry
*bout Z25 billion turnover in 2011 (Source)
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '=
'.'A./.. Number of @or(Cover claims reducing
Dan!erous in%ustries are amon! the first to take up robotics" 8his is havin! an effect
on physical #orkplace injuries #hich are no# rapi%ly re%ucin!"
'.'A././ Number of robots increasing
(Source)
8he +45 has pre%icte% that more than 1"5 million in%ustrial robots #ill be in operation
#orl%#i%e in 2015" (Source)
See the %ia!ram belo#"
'>
Source2 http2::###"motherjones"com:kevin1%rum:2012:04:chart1%ay1our1robot1
overlor%s1#ill1take1over1soon
8his %ia!ram is& of course& too simplistic& by comparin! apples an% oran!es" 8his
%oesn$t tell us #hich type of robot is replacin! humans" *n% !iven some robots are
effectively more efficient at specific tasks than humans& it %oesn$t tell us #hether the
replacement robot is e0uivalent to more than one human" +n the en% #e #ill nee%
%ata on ,human e0uivalents- if #e are to compare the t#o"
'.'A./.0 3anufacturing is shifting bac( to the @est
3osts of manufacturin! in ?apan:3hina:7ietnam are increasin! rapi%ly" 8here are
si!nificant issues #ith manufacturin! in non1Eestern nations" (8he follo#in! from
5o%ney /rooks
3hairman an% 38'& 5ethink 5obotics here)
5esponsive& short supply chains
+nnovation close to manufacturin!
Protection of intellectual property
Pro%uctivity beats cheap labour
*voi% hi!her transportation costs
'.'A./.5 2uddenness of change
,machines coul% !o from performin! 25^ of jobs to B5^ #ithin four years-" (5ace
*!ainst Machine)"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com '?
+ma!ine a chart resemblin! a topo!raphic cross section& #ith the tasks that are ,most
human- formin! a human a%vanta!e curve on the hi!her !roun%" Here you fin%
chores best %one by humans& like !ourmet cookin! or elite hair%ressin!" 8hen there
is a ,shore- consistin! of tasks that humans an% machines are e0ually able to
perform an%& beyon% them an ,ocean- of tasks best %one by machines" Ehen
machines !et cheaper or smarter or both& the #ater level rises& as it #ere& an% the
shore moves inlan%"
8his sea chan!e has t#o effects" 4irst& machines #ill substitute for humans by takin!
over ne#ly ,floo%e%- tasks" Secon%& %oin! machine tasks better complements human
tasks& raisin! the value of %oin! them #ell"
+ma!ine that the ocean of machine tasks reache% a #i%e plateau" 8his #oul% happen
if& for instance& machines #ere almost capable enou!h to take on a vast array of
human jobs" +n this situation& a small a%%itional rise in sea level #oul% floo% that
plateau an% push the shoreline so far inlan% that a hu!e number of important tasks
formerly in the human realm #ere no# achievable #ith machines" (Source2
http2::hanson"!mu"e%u:+...Spectrum1>10D"p%f)
1"11 Eho$s %rivin! this rapi% chan!e;
Ehile the .uropean Knion& ?apan& Jorea& an% the rest of the #orl% have ma%e
si!nificant 5TD investments in robotics technolo!y& the K"S" investment& outsi%e
unmanne% systems for %efense purposes& remains practically non1eAistent" (Source2
http2::###"us1robotics"us:reports:333^205eport"p%f)
Ehy; *pparently ?apan has a fear of a!ein! an% also %on$t #ant to allo#
immi!ration" 8herefore they #ant to buil% robots"
=ote that in%ustrial robots are ma%e only in ?apan& Jorea an% .urope Gnot KS*H
(Source)
3hina is a hu!e user of robots& but also has clear plans to move in this area2
O3hina$s 12th 51Lear Plan tar!ete% robotics as a !ro#th in%ustry necessary for
3hina$s %evelopment" +t eApects a compoun% !ro#th rate of 25^& sai% Ean!
Eeimin!& %eputy %irector of the Ministry of +n%ustry an% +nformation 8echnolo!y" 8he
ministry has set up incentives an% 5 !eo!raphical areas for 3hinese companies to
%evelop Gan% improve the 0uality ofH their robot pro%ucts an% capabilities" 8he
ambitious plan inclu%es a !oal of 60^ to be pro%uce% #ith home!ro#n technolo!ies&
Ean! sai%"
""" +n a%%ition to Shan!hai& /eijin!& @uan!Ihou an% 3hen!%u& authorities in Ciaonin!
province are constructin! a robot in%ustrial compleA so that by 201B they eApect ZD
billion for robots an% other automation e0uipment"O (Source)
1"12 Jey or!anisations
'.'..' &BR E&nternational Bederation of RoboticsF
Do#nloa% report here"
'.'... ,AR8A
'.'../ 8entagon
*tlas
.A
'.'..0 7oston Robotics
'.'..5 Gniversal Robots
Ehat humans take 4 %ays takes this robot just 4 hours"
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRsf=7!41@.ycUtR1F2
'.'..9 !amaha
'.'..= iRobot
'.'..> Rethin( Robotics
/aAter Q a universal robot that can be traine%" 5e0uires =' pro!rammin!" /ase
price Z22&000"
/aAter is no# at #ork in @reece" 4or a mere Z22&000 you !et a relentless #orker" +n
5 years$ time& +N% eApect /aAter to cost Z10&000 or less" O*t a ?ohnson T ?ohnson
factory in @reece& a K55 is use% on a pro%uction line #here it performs repetitive
pick an% place tasks as a link bet#een t#o parts of a pro%uction line" 8he robot takes
bottles of cream from one pro%uction line& an% places them onto the packa!in! line"
4leAibility is the key re0uirement because there are several %ifferent types of creams
comin! %o#n the line& each positione% %ifferently" he @reek inte!rator:%istributor&
+nnoPro 8echnolo!ies& #hich sol% an% installe% the robot& sai% that ?T? en!ineers
#ere 100^ satisfie% an% have even !iven the robot a name"O (Source)
/aAter coul% Gin 10115 yearsH turn into a home1robot that puts %ishes into the
%ish#asher an% back on the shelf& polishes shoes& cleans toilets& an% perhaps cooks
simple %ishes"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .'
'.'..? $ey publicly traded robotic companies
Source2 http2::###"everythin!1robotic"com:2012:04:pickin!1robotics1stocks1is1
complicate%"html
'.'..?.' 1ealthcare Applications%
&ntuitive 2urgical G+S5@2KSH an% its %a 7inci 5obotic Sur!ical System are bein!
installe% at major hospital operatin! centers #orl%#i%e" +ntuitive Sur!ical has more
than DB0 K"S" an% forei!n patents as #ell as more than FF0 pen%in!"
3a(o 2urgical GM*J'2KSH has an interactive robotic arm orthope%ic system for
knee implants"
Accuray G*5*L2KSH an% its 3yberJnife 5obotic 5a%iosur!ery System is an up1an%1
comin! robotic ra%iation treatment system"
2"isslog GSC'@2SEH makes #arehouse automation %evices as #ell as hospital
lo!istics an% %ru! mana!ement solutions usin! mobile robots"
3a:or Robotics GM['52+CH& an +sraeli company& provi%es state1of1the1art robotic
sur!ical !ui%ance systems"
'.'..?.. ,efenseH 2ecurity and 2pace ApplicationsI%
*ero7ironment G*7*72KSH is a provi%er of unmanne% aircraft& systems an% services
an% D5^ of their revenue comes from K*S Gunmanne% aerial systemsH sales" 8hey
re!ularly !et DoD or%ers for their 5aven an% Easp small unmanne% aircraft systems
an% just !ot three or%ers totalin! Z2D"4 million for pro%uction of their Puma %rone"
i5obot G+5/82KSH& a 100^ pure play robotics company& just ha% a 66^ %rop in their
stock price because of re%uce% !overnment contracts" 8hey have recently
restructure% to a%% healthcare to their lineup of pro%ucts& consumer pro%ucts are
%oin! fine& an% the company is fishin! for a%%itional consumer robotic pro%ucts"
<ineti< G<<:2C=H is i5obotNs %irect competitor in the %efense robotics marketplace
%espite their bein! a /ritish company an% not a pure play stock"
8 1any of the ma9or providers in :efense, &ecrity and &pace do have robotics
sbsidiaries bt are conglomerates !here only a very small portion of their revene
is derived from robotics, hence they are not listed here. ;<amples of this type of
company inclde7 Northrup Grumman, Rockwell Automation, General
Dynamics, Boeing, Teledyne, Textron and 6anadian MacDonald Dettwiler.
'.'..?.' &ndustrial and Co*robot ApplicationsII%
Adept Technology G*D.P2KSH is one of the very fe# in%ustrial robot manufacturers
base% in the K"S" Most of itNs revenue from robotics comes from manufacturin!& foo%
processin!& automotive an% #arehousin! applications" Eith their recent ac0uisition of
Mobile 5obotics& an% after stren!thenin! an% mo%ulariIin! their mobile ac0uisition&the
company be!an to enter the service robotics sector"
8#o privately hel% companies& Gniversal Robotics& a Danish company an% c*Jin(
2ystems& from the KS& alon! #ith t#o publicly1tra%e% companies $G$A GJK22@5H
an% A77 G*//=27VH& have release% li!ht#ei!ht& economical& safe& robotic arms for
li!ht in%ustrial an% SM. #ork"
$G$A GJK22@5H has been !ettin! a lot of press for their increasin! involvement in
3hina& too" *ll these companies GJKJ*& *//& 4*=K3& *%ept& Laska#a .lectric
GMotomanHH hope to %o #ell in 3hina as 3hina automates its automotive an% other
in%ustries" /ut JKJ* an% the other non13hinese companies may have problems
further %o#n the roa% #hen 3hinaNs in1country technolo!y machine takes over"
..
A77 G*//=27VH has for many years been active in 3hina an%& until Boxconn
announce% that they #oul% be manufacturin! their o#n robots& *// #as rumore% to
be the lea%in! conten%er to !et the job" *// stock comes #ith the caveat that
robotics represents only 21^ of their corporate revenue"
!as(a"a Electric GMotomanH G>50>2?PH is similar to *// in that the company is #ell
respecte% as a robot manufacturer yet robotics represents only 60^ of revenues"
8hey recently announce% buil%in! plans for a robot factory in 3hina"
BANGC G>F542?PH recently complete% construction of an a%%itional factory in ?apan to
han%le sales to 3hina"
'.'..?.. Ancillary businesses to the robotics industry%
Trimble G=*SD*<285M/H provi%es a%vance% positionin! pro%uct solutions an%
component parts as %oes Hemisphere @PS G8S.2H.M 8oronto Stock .Achan!eH in
3ana%a& particularly for the a! in%ustry" 8rimbleNs recent ac0uisition of @ate#in!& a
/el!ium provi%er of a 411:2 poun% unmanne% aircraft an% soft#are specialiIe% for
surveyin! an% mappin!& provi%es a complementary subsi%iary for 8rimble" OEe$re
lookin! at the ac0uisition of @ate#in! as the start of a center of eAcellence that #ill
broa%en into a pro%uct line& rather than a sin!le pro%uct"-
BAR6 Technologies G=*SD*<24*5'H provi%es 6D measurement an% inspection
arms an% scanners"
Cognex G=*SD*<23@=VH is a provi%er of machine vision pro%ucts primarily use% in
robotic applications"
Allied 3otion Technologies G*M'82KSH makes the servos that are incorporate% in
the %a 7inci sur!ical an% other robotic systems"
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ./
1"16 'pinions
'.'/.' 3ostly positive
'.'/.'.' Ray $ur:"eil
Source2 http2::###"fool"com:investin!:!eneral:2016:12:26:the1shape1of1the1future1
ho#1to1help1tomorro#s1chil"aspAU"KrlBSf<E2Sp
5ay JurI#eil believes stron!ly in the lon!1run ability of the economy to overcome
threats of technolo!ical unemployment& because itNs %one such a !oo% job
overcomin! these threats in the past" His rebuttal to critics #ho believe that robots
are %estine% to take all our jobs echoes the comments Michael 3horost ma%e about
enlar!in! the scope of our ima!inations2
8his (technolo!ical unemployment) controversy !oes back to the a%vent of
automation in the teAtile in%ustry in .n!lan% at the be!innin! of the
nineteenth century #hich marke% the be!innin! of the in%ustrial revolution"
Eeavers sa# that one person #ith the ne# machines coul% replace %oIens
of #eavers" =e# types of machines #ere intro%uce% 0uickly an% the #eavers
pre%icte% that employment #oul% soon be enjoye% only by the elite" 8hey
coul% see clearly the jobs !oin! a#ay but not the ne# types of employment
that coul% not be %escribe% because they ha% not been invente% yet" 8hey
forme% a society to combat this calle% the Cu%%ites" 8he reality turne% out
very %ifferent from their fears" =e# in%ustries #ere forme% an% ne# jobs
create% that never eAiste% before" 8he common man an% #oman coul% no#
have more than one shirt or blouse" 8he reality of jobs lost coul% be seen
very clearly #hereas the a%vent of ne# jobs that ha% not yet been invente%
#ere har%er to un%erstan%"
+f + #ere a prescient futurist !ivin! a speech in 1F00& + #oul% say that a thir%
of you no# #ork on farms an% another thir% in factories& but in a hun%re%
years 11 that is& by the year 2000 11 that #ill !o %o#n to 6^ an% 6^" 8hat is
in%ee% #hat happene%P to%ay it is 2^ an% 2^" .veryone in 1F00 #oul%
eAclaim& OMy !o%& #eNll all be out of #ork_O +f + then sai% not to #orry& youNll !et
jobs as #ebsite %esi!ners& %atabase e%itors& or chip en!ineers& no one #oul%
kno# #hat + #as talkin! about" +n the K"S" to%ay& >5^ of #orkers are
kno#le%!e #orkers of some kin% an% almost none of these jobs eAiste% fifty
years a!o"
So a!ain to%ay #e can envision types of #ork that #ill !o a#ay throu!h
continue% automation an% it is %ifficult to envision the jobs that have not yet
been invente%"
'.'/.'.. @illiam Ja:onic(
CaIonick is %irector of the Kniversity of Massachusetts 3enter for +n%ustrial
3ompetitiveness" See article2 5obots DonNt Destroy ?obsP 5apacious 3orporate
.Aecutives Do"
'.'/.'./ 1al arian
O5obotics is #here computers #ere 15 years a!o" *ll the bi! manufacturin! plants
have robots& but they$re really eApensive an% have to be care% for by specialists" /ut
they are !ettin! cheaper an% cheaper"$$O 8heir rate of improvement #ill bo!!le the
min%" 8hatNs a firm pre%iction"http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:varians1
analysis:story1e>fr!abA1122>16DBF6D65
.0
'.'/.'.0 ,r. 3ichio $a(u
*re Ee 5ea%y 4or the 3omin! N*!e of *bun%ance;
7i%eo2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+
'.'/.'.5 Bran( Jevy and Richard 3urnane
8hir% Eay report& ,Dancin! #ith 5obots-"
http2::#eb"mit"e%u:flevy:###:
8he =e# Division of Cabor2 Ho# 3omputers *re 3reatin! the =eAt ?ob Market
4rank Cevy T 5ichar% ?" Murnane
'.'/.'.9 Robin 1anson
Hanson& 5obin" .conomic @ro#th @iven Machine +ntelli!ence"
Hanson& 5obin" .conomics of 8he Sin!ularity
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRv%7SPj8.aaL
2ingularity economics
http2::hanson"!mu"e%u:+...Spectrum1>10D"p%f
'.'/.'.' @. 7rian Arthur
8he opportunities offere% by the #ealth1!eneratin! capacity of machines& bits an%
bytes& al!orisms& an% artificial intelli!ence #ill fun%amentally shift our societal
concerns from ,ho# best to !enerate !ro#th- to ,ho# best to %istribute #ealth"- ,8he
pro%uctive part of the economy #ill be in !reat shape& but the %istribution of it #ill be
the main problem&- says E" /rian *rthur& visitin! scholar at the Palo *lto 5esearch
3enter$s +ntelli!ent Systems Caboratory" ,8he bi! problem from 2010 on is
%istributin! all the #ealth& !ettin! it into human han%s"- (Source)
'.'/.'.' 3ar( Thoma
http2::economistsvie#"typepa%"com:economistsvie#:2016:01:robots1an%1all1that"html
,8here #ill be jobs #e can$t ima!ine ri!ht no#&- says Mark 8homa& an economist at
the Kniversity of 're!on" (Source)
'.'/.'.' Elie:er !ud(o"s(y
+ntelli!ence .Aplosion Microeconomics
8he 5obots& *+& an% Knemployment *nti14*<
'.'/.'.' Jaurence $at:
,Ca#rence JatI& a Harvar% economist& says that no historical pattern sho#s these
shifts lea%in! to a net %ecrease in jobs over an eAten%e% perio%" 8he 0uestion& he
says& is #hether economic history #ill serve as a useful !ui%e" Eill the job
%isruptions cause% by technolo!y be temporary as the #orkforce a%apts& or #ill #e
see a science1fiction scenario in #hich automate% processes an% robots #ith
superhuman skills take over a broa% s#ath of human tasks; 8hou!h JatI eApects
the historical pattern to hol%& it is ,!enuinely a 0uestion&- he says" ,+f technolo!y
%isrupts enou!h& #ho kno#s #hat #ill happen;- (Source)
'.'/.'.' Robert At(inson
http2::###"i%easlaboratory"com:2016:0F:0F:robert1atkinson1robots1are1not1the1
enemy:
8ime for a Manufacturin! Debate /ase% on 4acts& =ot 'pinion
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .5
'.'/.'.' Nic( 7loom
=ick /loom& an economics professor at Stanfor%& has seen a bi! chan!e of heart
about such technolo!ical unemployment in his %iscipline recently" 8he receive%
#is%om use% to be that althou!h ne# technolo!ies put some #orkers out of jobs& the
eAtra #ealth they !enerate% increase% consumption an% thus create% jobs
else#here" =o# many economists are takin! the short1 to me%ium1term risk to jobs
far more seriously& an% some think the potential scale of chan!e may be hu!e" Mr
8hrun %ra#s a parallel #ith employment in a!riculture& #hich accounte% for almost all
jobs in the pre1mo%ern era but has since shrunk to just 2^ of the #orkforce" 8he
a%vent of robots #ill have a similar effect& he pre%icts& but over a much shorter
perio%" .ven so& he is sure that human in!enuity #ill !enerate ne# jobs& just as it
create% vast ne# in%ustries to counteract the %ecline in a!ricultural employment"
(Source)
'.'/.. 3ostly negative Ei.e. this is a big issue for societyF
,8he cab came floatin! %o#n out of the sky at the intersection an% maneuvere% itself
to rest at the curb neAt to them #ith a finicky precision" 8here #as& of course& nobo%y
in itP like everythin! else in the #orl% re0uirin! an +"<" of less than 150& it #as
computer controlle%" 8he #orl%#i%e %ominance of such machines& 3hris$s father ha%
often sai%& ha% been one of the chief contributors to the present an% apparently
permanent %epression2 the comin! of semi1intelli!ent machines into business an%
technolo!y ha% create% a secon% +n%ustrial 5evolution& in #hich only the most hi!hly
creative human bein!s& an% those most !ifte% at a%ministration& foun% themselves
#ith any skills to sell #hich #ere #orth the #orl%$s money to buy" 3hris stu%ie% the
cab #ith the liveliest interest& for thou!h he ha% often seen them before from a
%istance& he ha% of course never ri%%en in one" /ut there #as very little to see" 8he
cab #as an e!!shape% bubble of li!ht metals an% plastics& painte% #ith lar!e re%1
an%1#hite checkers& #ith a ro# of #in%o#s runnin! all aroun% it" +nsi%e& there #ere
t#o seats for four people& a speaker !rille& an% that #as allP no controls& an% no
instruments" 8here #as not even any visible& place for the passen!er to %eposit his
fare"- (?ames /lish& 1F>2& * Cife for the Stars& 3ities +n 4li!ht& 7olume 8#o)
'.'/...' Andre" 3cCaffee and Eri( 7ryn+olfsson
8his talk by *n%re# Galrea%y cite% earlierH is #orth listenin!2
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR<fM@y3k6V8#
.rik$s talk here2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRso%1e?/fFL0
.rik /rynjolfsson an% *n%re# Mc*fee& both at M+8& also have hi!h hopes for the
lon!1term effect of robots an% similar technolo!ies" /ut in a recent book& ,8he
Secon% Machine *!e-& they ar!ue that technolo!ical %islocation may create !reat
problems for mo%erately skille% #orkers in the comin! %eca%es" 8hey reckon that
innovation has spee%e% up a lot in the past fe# years an% #ill continue at this pace&
for three reasons2 the eAponential !ro#th in computin! po#erP the pro!ressive
%i!itisation of thin!s that people #ork #ith& from maps to le!al teAts to sprea%sheetsP
an% the opportunities for innovators to combine an ever1!ro#in! stock of thin!s&
i%eas an% processes into ever more ne# pro%ucts an% services"
/et#een them& these tren%s mi!ht continue to ,hollo# out- labour markets in
%evelope% countries an%& soon enou!h& %evelopin! ones& as more an% more jobs
re0uirin! me%ium levels of skill are automate% a#ay" 8his helps eAplain& the authors
.9
ar!ue& #hy the benefits of economic !ro#th increasin!ly accrue to a small !roup of
hi!hly pai% people& citin! in evi%ence the lack of !ro#th in *merica$s me%ian #a!e
an% the %ecline in #orkforce participation" (Source)
'.'/...' ;effrey 2achs and Ja"rence $otli(off
* paper by ?effrey Sachs an% Ca#rence Jotlikoff hi!hli!hts the #orryin! possibility
that this shift coul% be self1perpetuatin!2 if automation absorbs jobs previously
reserve% for youn! people& #ho have not yet ha% time to buil% up skills& it #ill stop
them from ac0uirin! those skills& an% its %estructive effects #ill reverberate %o#n the
years" (Source)
'.'/.... 3artin Bord
Silicon 7alley entrepreneur an% computer en!ineer" He believes that ,as technolo!y
a%vances& a lar!er an% lar!er fraction of the population #ill essentially become
unemployable- (Source)
=ook2 8he Ci!hts in the 8unnel2 *utomation& *cceleratin! 8echnolo!y an% the
.conomy of the 4uture
=log7 http2::econfuture"#or%press"com:
'n Huffin!post
,8he 8ruth *bout Knemployment \ *n% Ehy +t May @et Eorse,& 1F ?anuary
2010
,* ?obless 5ecovery` *n% * ?obless 4uture;,& 2 4ebruary 2010
,8he 3omin! Structural Knemployment 3risis,& 24 May 2010
,Knemployment2 8he .conomists ?ust Don$t @et +t,& & 4 *u!ust 2010
3oul% *rtificial +ntelli!ence 3reate an Knemployment 3risis;
'.'/.../ $evin ,rum
Drum& Jevin" Eelcome& 5obot 'verlor%s" Please DonNt 4ire Ks; Smart machines
probably #onNt kill us all\but theyNll %efinitely take our jobs& an% sooner than you
think"
'.'/...0 Tyler Co"en
7ie#s of 8yler co#men
Kero 3arginal 8roduct%
8hatNs 8yler 3o#enNs term for a se!ment of the current lon!1term unemploye%"
8heir pro%uctivity may not be literally Iero& but it is lo#er than the cost of trainin!&
employin!& an% insurin! them" 8hat is #hy labor is hurtin! but capital is %oin! fineP
%umpin! these employees is tou!h for the #orkers themselves 11 an% ar!uably ba%
for society at lar!e Q but it simply %oesnNt %ama!e profits much" +tNs a col%& har%
reality& an% one that #e #ill have to %eal #ith& one #ay or another" (Source)
http2::###"overcomin!bias"com:200F:10:take1both1econ1tech1seriously"html
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .=
http2::mar!inalrevolution"com:mar!inalrevolution:2012:12:are1robots1an%1a!in!1
%emo!raphics1self1cancellin!1problems"html
+f robots concentrate #ealth in the han%s of +P o#ners& #a!es for many #orkers
mi!ht fall or remain sta!nant" 8hat is a problem"
Similarly& if robots concentrate #ealth in the han%s of +P o#ners& it may be har% to
%rum up the taA revenue to support a hi!her %epen%ency ratio" 8he #ealthy may
pro%uce a blockin! political coalition or capital simply may be har%er to taA for
mobility& accountancy& an% Caffer curve1like reasons" 8here is then a problem #ith
the %epen%ency ratio" (Source)
*lso2
'A 8ercent Gnemployment Borever-
/L 8LC.5 3'E.=& ?*LM. C.MJ. a ?*=K*5L 5& 2011
8he K"S" economy finally appears to be pickin! up steam an% hea%e% to#ar%
recovery2 several economic in%icators 11 inclu%in! manufacturin! an% services
output& an% sales of cars an% consumer !oo%s 11 have sho#n noticeable
improvement over the last fe# months" Scan virtually any financial ne#s #ebsite&
an% youNll see itNs no# a consensus that a sustaine% economic recovery has not only
arrive% 11 itNs pickin! up spee%"
/ut thereNs !oo% reason to believe that the labor market #onNt be keepin! pace"
5ather than an aberration& hi!h unemployment may be an en%urin! feature of the
Knite% StatesN economy"
Ee are& sa%ly& in a very %eep pit #hen it comes to the labor market" 8he recent
private1sector estimate from *DP .mployer Services announce% the creation of
2FB&000 ne# jobs for December& but this is the first instance of a real %ent in the
jobless rate since the be!innin! of the recession" 8he =ovember report from the K"S"
/ureau of Cabor Statistics pe!!e% the unemployment rate at F"D percent& #hich
translates to over 15"1 million unemploye%" 'ver 40 percent of currently unemploye%
#orkers have been out of a job for over siA months& the hi!hest percenta!e of lon!1
term unemployment since Eorl% Ear ++" 8he numbers look even #orse if #e consi%er
the un%eremploye%& #hich inclu%es potential #orkers #ho have !iven up lookin! for
a job or the F percent of the labor force that is ma%e up of part1time #orkers #ho
#oul% prefer to be #orkin! full1time" *t least 2"5 million people !ave up lookin! for
#ork in the last year alone"
.ven if the December rate of job creation continues& it #ill be 2014 before
unemployment is %o#n to 5 percent" /ut last monthNs !oo% ne#s may not last" *t a
more conservative estimate of 150&000 jobs a%%e% per month& it coul% be 2024
before employment is back to 200B levels" Jeep in min% that there are 100&0001plus
estimate% ne# entrants into the #orkforce each month" +n =ovember& a sum total of
F2&000 ne# jobs #ere create% 11 but that %i%nNt lo#er the unemployment rate"
So #hat happene%; Ehy have *merican labor markets en%e% up in such a %ire
situation;
8he simple Jeynesian eAplanation for the initial unemployment is that a!!re!ate
%eman% 11 the countryNs combine% spen%in! an% investment 11 has been too lo#" /ut
itNs unlikely that spen%in! is the only problem& as unemployment is too hi!h an% too
persistent relative to similar episo%es of %isinflation in recent history" +f #eak %eman%
#as the main problem& profits shoul% be collapsin! too& but they are not" +nvestment
an% corporate profits have been fine for some time no#& an% they are broa%ly #ithin
the ran!e of pre1recession estimates"
8hereNs a secon% problem #ith the Jeynesian story& #hich relies heavily on the
.>
notion that real& inflation1a%juste% #a!es are sittin! at too hi!h a level" +f
unemployment causes someone real sufferin!& #hy #oul%nNt he or she be #illin! to
take a lo#er salary to !et a job an% ease the pain; /ut rather than fallin!& private1
in%ustry #a!es are currently on the rise 11 up nearly >0 cents per hour since the en%
of the recession" 8here are plenty of !oo% theories #hy it is har% to cut the #a!es of
employe% #orkers 11 lon!1term contracts pose le!al challen!es& an% fra!ile #orker
morale threatens to collapse un%er the stress of #a!e cuts" /ut itNs har%er to eAplain
#hy unemploye% #orkers canNt fin% ne# jobs for less pay& especially if output is
recoverin!& profits are hi!h& an% corporations are sittin! on a lot of cash"
Many conservatives in the Knite% States have place% the blame for hi!h
unemployment on the shoul%ers of Presi%ent /arack 'bama& ar!uin! that his
a%ministrationNs liberal a!en%a has complicate% the recovery" /ut the statistics
su!!est other#ise" *!ain& corporate profits an% consumer spen%in! are fine" +n%ee%&
itNs the sector in #hich the !overnment has most %irectly intervene% 11 health care 11
that has maintaine% the most robust job !ro#th over the past t#o years& a%%in!
20&000 ne# jobs in =ovember alone" *n% %onNt !o blamin! job losses on ille!al
immi!rants takin! jobs from %ocumente% #orkers2 Catino immi!rants have left the
country in lar!e numbers since the start of the financial crisis"
*s time passes& it is har%er to avoi% the notion that a lot of those ol% jobs simply
#erenNt a%%in! much to the economy" .Acept for the hei!ht of the housin! boom 11
'ctober 200B throu!h ?une 200D 11 real @DP is no# hi!her than it has been in the
entirety of K"S" history" 8he fact that the Knite% States has pre1crisis levels of output
#ith fe#er #orkers raises %oubts as to #hether those a%%itional #orkers #ere
pro%ucin! very much in the first place" +f a business o#ner fires 10 people an% a year
later output is almost back to normal& itNs pretty har% to make the ar!ument that they
#ere %oin! much in the first place"
8he story runs as follo#s" /efore the financial crash& there #ere lots of not1so1useful
#orkers hol%in! not1so1useful jobs" .mployers %i%nNt so much bother to fi!ure out
#ho they #ere" Deman% #as hi!h an% revenue #as boomin!& so rootin! out the less
pro%uctive #orkers #oul% have involve% a lot of time an% trouble 11 plus it #oul% have
involve% some morale costs #ith the more pro%uctive #orkers& #ho %onNt like bein!
measure% an% spie% on" So firms simply let the problem lie"
8hen came the 200D recession& an% it #as no lon!er possible to keep so many
people on payroll" * lot of businesses #ere then force% to face the music2 /osses
ha% to make tou!h calls about #ho coul% be let !o an% #ho #as #orth savin!" G=ote
that unemployment is lo# for #orkers #ith a colle!e %e!ree& only 5 percent
compare% #ith 1> percent for less e%ucate% #orkers #ith no hi!h school %e!ree"
8his is consistent #ith the reality that less1pro%uctive in%ivi%uals& #ho ten% to have
less e%ucation& have been lai% off"H
+n essence& #e have seen the rise of a lar!e class of OIero mar!inal pro%uct
#orkers&O to coin a term" 8heir pro%uctivity may not be literally Iero& but it is lo#er
than the cost of trainin!& employin!& an% insurin! them" 8hat is #hy labor is hurtin!
but capital is %oin! fineP %umpin! these employees is tou!h for the #orkers
themselves 11 an% ar!uably ba% for society at lar!e 11 but it simply %oesnNt %ama!e
profits much" +tNs a col%& har% reality& an% one that #e #ill have to %eal #ith& one #ay
or another"
So ho# shoul% #e interpret the recent trickle of !oo% ne#s; Eell& one positive note
is that less1pro%uctive& lai%1off #orkers are un%ertakin! the nee%e% a%justments" 4or
instance& accor%in! to a survey by the Pe# 5esearch 3enter& nearly B0 percent of
unemploye% #orkers have alrea%y ma%e %ramatic chan!es in their career or job1fiel%
choice& or are consi%erin! %oin! so" 8here also have been mi!rations out of
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com .?
eApensive urban areas an% into smaller an% less eApensive ones& such as *ustin&
Salt Cake 3ity& an% northern 7ir!inia& #ith relatively hi!h1performin! in%ustries an%
more flui% labor markets"
+n other #or%s& the K"S" economy is !oin! throu!h some major structural shifts" +tNs
not a 0uestion of !ettin! back to #here #e #ere& but rather that the economy must
solve a ne# problem of re1employin! a lot of people #ho #ere not& in reality&
pro%ucin! very much in the first place" 8hatNs a steeper challen!e than #e ha%
realiIe% early in the sta!es of this recession 11 an% so far policymakers have faile% at
meetin! it"
*nalysts still %isa!ree on ho# rapi%ly the K"S" economy #ill recover" /ut theyNre
missin! the point" 8he era of lo# unemployment may be in our rearvie# mirror for a
lon! time to come" (Source)
End of the average is nigh as ine#uality divides society
Loun! people are a%vise% to avoi% eAcessive specialisation an% to N%o #hat you
enjoy& learn !eneral skills& learn ho# to learn 1an% learn ho# to retrain yourselfN"
Source2 @etty +ma!es
D' you #ant your chil% to have a job in 2066; +f so& accor%in! to a book that is
!rippin! policymakers in Eashin!ton& they ha% better start %eferrin! to computers"
Society is about to be %ivi%e% into bi! earners an% bi! losers an% those #ho ra!e
a!ainst the machine are %estine% for the scrap heap"
8yler 3o#en& an economics professor at @eor!e Mason Kniversity in 7ir!inia&
%elivers the ba% ne#s cheerfully" +ne0uality is on the rise& he ar!ues& an% the mi%%le
class #ill soon be seen as a 0uaint feature of a by!one era"
'ver the neAt t#o %eca%es& he pre%icts& society #ill become a OhypermeritocracyO in
#hich 15 per cent #ill be richly re#ar%e% for their a%eptness in harnessin!
technolo!y an% the remainin! D5 per cent #ill be consi!ne% to a fra!ile eAistence in
#hich #a!es freeIe or fall an% fe# !et a secon% chance at success"
His book& *vera!e is 'ver& conclu%es that #e are about to enter Othe a!e of !enius
machines& an% it #ill be the people #ho #ork #ith them that #ill riseO"
4or the rest& life #ill be %eci%e%ly tou!h an% althou!h the fracturin! of society is Onot
inevitable in a metaphysical senseO& he says& he has little optimism that !overnments
#ill %o the thin!s necessary to make the situation better"
*n en!a!in! an% eclectic thinker& 3o#en& 51& #as chess champion of =e# ?ersey at
15& has #ritten a !ui%e to ethnic %inin! an% is a prolific blo!!er" 8he Cos *n!eles
8imes has %escribe% him as Oa man #ho can talk about Haitian voo%oo fla!s& +ranian
cinema& Hon! Jon! cuisine& abstract eApressionism& [airean music an% MeAican folk
art seemin!ly #ith e0ual facilityO"
Cast year& he #as invite% to Do#nin! Street to %eliver a seminar on in%ustrial policy
an% #arne% a!ainst /ritain embracin! the politics of envy"
3o#en emphasises the importance of humility in acceptin! that computers usually
kno# best an% has reflecte% this in his o#n life" He met his #ife 10 years a!o via
Match"com& a me%ium that force% them Oout of our usual intuitions an% to our mutual
benefitO"
He is enthuse% by the a%vances in chess brou!ht by computers an% accepts that he
mi!ht not have succee%e% as a youn! player usin! soft#are because O+Nm not sure
ho# humble + #as back thenO"
8he key& he says& is to realise that& as in Ofreestyle chessO& in #hich players can
/A
consult computer pro!rams& Othe human an% computer to!ether are stron!er than
just the computer& an% certainly stron!er than just the humanO"
/ein! the best at chess 1or anythin! in life 1is no lon!er !oo% enou!h" O8he humans
#ho are best at freestyle chess are not the !ran%masters but people #ho are smart
an% kno# somethin! about chess but also kno# #hen to %efer to the computer an%
#hen your #is%om actually counts for somethin!"O
3omputer al!orithms& he ar!ues& are becomin! better at kno#in! #hat #e #ant than
#e %o 1an% successful people #ill just !o #ith this"
5ea%in! *maIon or Lelp revie#s lea%s to better choices 1as %oes #alkin! a#ay
from a business %eal because a soft#are pro!ram tells you itNs too risky& even if your
!ut is tellin! you to han! in there"
8he %o#nsi%e is that employers #ill also use computers #ith Ooppressive precisionO
to measure output& #ee% out slackers an% spot those #ho have not al#ays been
stea%y an% conscientious" Makin! a fresh start #ill become neAt to impossible"
Ho# %o #e help our chil%ren to succee% in this brave& some#hat scary ne# #orl% 1to
be part of the 15 per cent;
3o#en says the future is too unpre%ictable to pro%uce lists of jobs to !ravitate
to#ar%s or to avoi%" /ut he %oes a%vise avoi%in! eAcessive specialisation2 ODo #hat
you enjoy& learn !eneral skills& learn ho# to learn 1an% learn ho# to retrain yourself"O
EH' *5. 8H. E+==.5S;
E'M.=2 3o#en ar!ues that there #ill be a premium on service jobs that Omake
people feel betterO an% on reliability" O* lot of these ne# jobs #ill be service sector
jobs& so some of that #ill be lookin! after ol% people& some of that #ill be lookin!
after youn! people& nannies& some of it !reetin! customers #ho sho# up"O
Cookin! after the rich #ill also be lucrative"
He a%%s2 O4or service sector jobs& a lot of #omen have a%vanta!es over men" Ho#
many people #ant to hire a male nanny; 5i!htly or #ron!ly& a lot of people fin%
#omen more reliable"O
M*5J.8.5S2 =ot those #ho %i% a business course on marketin!& but those #ho
kno# ho# to market themselves" O+n any society #ith hi!her ine0uality& marketin!
matters much more&O 3o#en says"
8he #ealthy have increasin! %eman%s on their time an% are bombar%e% #ith
information from all si%es"
So ho# %o they %eci%e #ho to employ; OPeople #ho have the ability to someho# be
persuasive or catch notice or be rhetorically effective or have a !oo% tra%emark or
personal bran% 1the returns there are skyrocketin!"O
3'*3H.S2 8here are no# computer pro!rams that can mark essays" O+ fin% it 0uite
remarkable&O 3o#en says" O8hey seem to %o it pretty #ell"O /ut this %oes not mean
teachers #ill be out of a job" 8he ones #ho can be inspirational life coaches #ill %o
especially #ell" O4or a !oo% coach& a !oo% tutor or a !oo% role mo%el& the returns #ill
be very hi!h"O +n Hon! Jon! an% South Jorea& some tutors make millions of %ollars a
year" O8hose tutors are not the smartest people& theyNre the best motivators """ the
theatrical si%e of it is becomin! more important"O
@.=.5*C+S8S2 3o#en says those #ho are computer #hiIIes #ill obviously %o #ell"
/ut most of us are not like that"
O+f you %o the humanities in a really smart #ay& you can %o really #ell" 8hatNs counter1
intuitive but """ mana!in! people& persua%in!& #ill be job skills #ith very hi!h returns"O
Mark [uckerber!& the 4acebook co1foun%er& stu%ie% psycholo!y at Harvar% Gthou!h
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /'
he %i% not !ra%uateH"
* combination of technical kno#le%!e an% the ability to solve real1#orl% problems #ill
be at a premium" 8hose #ho can prioritise an% sort information effectively #ill be
sou!ht out by those in the 15 per cent #ho %o not have the time to %o it themselves"
OPeople #ill #ant to !o to !eneralists #ho #ill be filters in %ifferent #ays&O 3o#en
pre%icts"
Smartphones alrea%y %o everythin! for us& bar makin! the tea" Siri %oes not al#ays
kno# the ri!ht ans#er an% your @PS is far from infallible& but these tools are
improvin! all the time" Humans #ho believe they kno# best are #ron! an% #ill be
punishe% in the #orkplace for their arro!ance"
3o#en says those #ho listen to computers #ill #in the !litterin! priIes& even if they
fin% their pri%e a little battere% at first" 8he possibilities for computers tellin! us thin!s
about ourselves that #e %onNt kno# are en%less"
+n *vera!e is 'ver& 3o#en #rites2 ODurin! a %ate& a #oman mi!ht consult a pocket
%evice in the la%ies room that tells her ho# much she really likes the !uy" 8he
machine coul% re!ister her pulse& breathin!& tone of voice& the level of %etail in her
narrative& or #hichever biolo!ical features prove to have pre%ictive po#er"O
8H. 3'=S3+.=8+'KS2 8hose #ho put in the #ork stan% to inherit the earth" 3o#en
believes that #ithin the neAt five years the #orl%Ns best e%ucation& or somethin! close
to it& #ill be available online at no cost" ?ust because somethin! is there an% is free&
ho#ever& %oes not mean everyone #ill take a%vanta!e of it" 'nly the self1motivate%
an% conscientious #ill take a%vanta!e" *lrea%y& conscientious stu%ents from +n%ia
are beatin! *merican slackers"
8he ability to monitor performance an% track recor%& an% for employers to have easy
access to those recor%s& means the stea%y #orker #ho turns up on time& never has a
!ap bet#een jobs an% %oes not take sick %ays #ill be priIe%"
+MM+@5*=8S2 Despite the bi! %ivi%e bet#een the 15 per cent an% the D5 per cent&
3o#en foresees a hi!h %e!ree of social mobility" OPeople are risin! from the mi%%le&
an% in%ee% the bottom& all the time& often immi!rants """ itNs completely #ron! to think
the current elite #ill capture all of those !ains"O
*s hi!hly motivate% an% conscientious #orkers& immi!rants are al#ays likely to %o
#ell" O+mmi!rants are one !roup #here #hen they see a bi!!er %ivi%e& they try har%er
to make that leap&O 3o#en says" +mmi!rants took a risk an% perhaps !ave up a
comfortable an% safe lifestyle back home to strive for more"
C'S.5S
85K3J %rivers #ill soon be out of a job as %riverless vehicles are perfecte%"
?ournalists #ho #rite basic match reports or summaries of the stockmarket may
soon fin% that computers can %o as !oo% a job an% make fe#er mistakes" 4ilin!
clerks are alrea%y no more" /ut the bi!!est losers 3o#en i%entifies are youn! men"
O8hey mi!ht be smart& ener!etic& maybe even very creative& but theyNre often not that
%iscipline%& no that conscientious& an% these ne# institutions #ill be measurin! their
value every step alon! the #ay"O
3o#en says psycholo!y an% eAperience tell us that O#omen are on avera!e more
conscientious than men """ more likely to follo# instructions an% or%ers #ith
eAactness an% #ithout resentmentO"
Ehile some men are eAtremely %e%icate% to #ork& there is a bi! %o#nsi%e to male
employees" Men& in !reater numbers& he #rites& O#ill be more irresponsible& more
likely to sho# up %runk& more likely to en% up in prison& an% more likely to become
irreparably unemploye%O"
/.
He #arns that Oif youNre a youn! male hothea% #ho just canNt follo# or%ers& an% you
have your o#n i%eas about ho# everythin! shoul% be %oneO& then you shoul% for!et
about ever makin! it into that 15per cent"
'.'/...5 872
?obs are not just leavin! 3hina or KS*& they are leavin! the PC*=.8" =o more jobs
to pro%uce thin!s like shoes" '=CL %esi!ners of pro%ucts are nee%e%& !iven
universal robots an% 6% printers" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR#b2c+S!?Kok
'.'/...9 8aul $rugman
1" ,5ise of the 5obots,& D December 2012
2" ,8echnolo!y or Monopoly Po#er;,& F December 2012
6" ,5obots an% 5obber /arons,& F December 2012
4" ,Human 7ersus Physical 3apital,& 11 December 2012
5" ,Policy +mplications of 3apital1/iase% 8echnolo!y2 'penin! 5emarks,& 2D
December 2012
Jru!man an% Jaminska ar!ue that thereNs a stron! chance that re%istribution #ill !et
si!nificantly more important in the near future" 8hatNs because& they fear& all our jobs
#ill be taken by robots" (Source)
Jru!man #rites2
+$ve note% before that the nature of risin! ine0uality in *merica chan!e% aroun%
2000" Kntil then& it #as all about #orker versus #orkerP the %istribution of income
bet#een labor an% capital \ bet#een #a!es an% profits& if you like \ ha% been
stable for %eca%es" Since then& ho#ever& labor$s share of the pie has fallen sharply"
*s it turns out& this is not a uni0uely *merican phenomenon" * ne# report from the
+nternational Cabor 'r!aniIation points out that the same thin! has been happenin!
in many other countries& #hich is #hat you$% eApect to see if !lobal technolo!ical
tren%s #ere turnin! a!ainst #orkers" (Source)
'.'/...= &:abella $amins(a
Jru!man an% Jaminska ar!ue that thereNs a stron! chance that re%istribution #ill !et
si!nificantly more important in the near future" 8hatNs because& they fear& all our jobs
#ill be taken by robots" " (Source)
*n% Jaminska a%%s2
8he ne# ine0uality #e are seein! has little to %o #ith ho# #ell e%ucate% you are" +t$s
har% to penetrate beyon% the barrier on e%ucation alone" 8he ne# ine0uality is about
capital o#ners an% non1capital o#ners"
*n% increasin!ly& it$s about technolo!y capital o#ners" 8hose #ho o#n the robots
an% the tech are becomin! the ne# lan%lor% rentier types" (Source)
'.'/...> Alex 1ern
http2::###"ne#statesman"com:economics:2016:0>:basic1income1versus1robots
8#o #eeks a!o& + #rote about the i%ea of a citiIenNs income2 the state replacin! the
vast majority of the benefit system #ith one cash payment ma%e to everyone&
re!ar%less of employment or income"
8he a%vanta!es of such a chan!e are le!ion" *t a stroke& the thorny issues of
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com //
incentives are %one a#ay #ith& since #ork al#ays paysP the %ea%#ei!ht loss
associate% #ith means testin! %isappears Galbeit replace% #ith the %ea%#ei!ht loss
of !ivin! money to people #ho %onNt nee% itHP those most likely to fall throu!h the
cracks of a re!imente% #elfare state fin% the barrier to re1entry %one a#ay #ithP an%
it allo#s for a reco!nition of the value of certain types of non1market labour& like
carin! or raisin! chil%ren"
8he =e# Lork 8imesN Paul Jru!man an% the 4inancial 8imesN +Iabella Jaminska
no# #a%e into the fray& proposin! another a%vanta!e of the policy2 its re%istributive
effect" (Source)
'.'/./ Confused
'.'/./.' Bederico 8istono
https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRkL+fe[cV*FKTlistRPC.5.16>/>>3063/BD
5arely has anyone been more confuse% that this youn! man" He is a totally confuse%
socialist" He has no clue about ho# economies #ork an% therefore %oesnNt
un%erstan% that robotics #ill take a#ay jobs but also allo# more creative jobs to
become more economically viable" Sa%ly& these !eeks #ho are !oin! to become
super1#ealthy an% therefore influential in #orl%1policy& %onNt un%erstan% economics"
'.'/./.' 8eter ,iamandis
https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRsV%*1lPBDJLTlistRPC.5.16>/>>3063/BD
* !reat thinker& visionary an% master of technolo!y& an% eAtremely positive about the
future" Ho#ever& he is totally confuse% about economics an% ima!ines a socialist
future Gsee this eAtract here2 http2::###"tubechop"com:#atch:2424FF5H"
5espon%in! to Mr" 5eich& he sai% it$s 0uite possible that people #on$t nee% jobs the
#ay they %o no#" *s the price of technolo!y falls& so #ill the cost of livin!& he sai%\
enablin! the #orl% to meet the basic nee%s of all people #ithin 60 years" He sai% that
he is a libertarian an% a capitalist at heart& but that the "orld seems to be headed
to"ard socialism" (2ource)
,EeNre hea%in! from a #orl% of OHaveO an% OHave1notsO to a #orl% of OHavesO an%
OSuper1havesO" + think the final result of technolo!y is a sort of O8echnolo!y1
socialismO #here tech is han%lin! our basic nee%s""" no# iNm personally a libertarian1
capitalist by nature"-
8he en% result of technolo!y is Otechnolo!ical socialismO #here our basic nee%s are
bein! met by 8ech" + %o think #e #ill be re1inventin! the economy Gor #hat ever that
meansH an% #ill en% up #here ener!y an% information are the t#o most precious
resources"
(Source)
His vie# is that once %evices become so !oo%& then there #on$t even be any
professionals" He %oesn$t un%erstan% the conception of C+M+8C.SS human nee%s"
8herefore& there #ill still be many fiel%s in #hich jobs #ill continue to be create%"
?ust because only 2 per cent of us no# #ork in a!riculture %oesn$t mean jobs have
%isappeare%" Ee just %o %ifferent thin!s& an% many more of them"
*n% un%er no circumstance can prosperity continue #hen even the remotest #hiff of
socialism comes into the system"
/0
2" .Aamples of robotic innovations Ginclu%in! *+H
5obots are #i%ely use% to%ay& in hospitals& manufacturin!& police& arme% forces&
a!e% care facilities Q an% virtually every#here else" Ee are mostly una#are of their
presence& so successfully has this transition to robotics been"
* summary on almost all robots can be foun% here2
http2::###"therobotreport"com:in%eA"php:archive
2"1 Smart assistants
..'.' Expliner 1igh*oltage 8o"er Transmission Jine &nspection Robot
* phenomenal solution for bushfire prevention in 7ictoria" *lternative inspection
Gphysical:helicopterH re0uire% by the 5e!s is both ina%e0uate an% eApensive"
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR/y1y.6Brj!K
..'.. 2pare tyre mounting robot
8he spare tire mountin! robot has been in action since ?anuary& 2010 at an
assemblin! line of 8akaoka plant of the company G4i!ure 1H an% by September 2010
successfully mounte% 100&000 spare tires automatically in cars #ithin 4550 s #ithout
any troubles" 8hanks to ne#ly %evelope% loa% compensation mechanisms an%
control al!orithm& the robot allo#s to be %riven by small servomotors of D0 E to
han%le heavy objects so that the system can #ork to!ether #ith human #orkers
#ithout any special safety measures like safety fences& #orkin! area separation& etc"
conformin! to the !lobal safety re!ulations" (Source2 5ace a!ainst the Machine)
..'./ 8ac(ing assistant
http2::money"cnn"com:!allery:technolo!y:2016:01:14:help1robots:2"html
..'.0 Automated vacuum cleaners
i5obot etc"
..'.5 Toys
robotic hamsters G[hu [huH
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /5
robotic pen!uins
in%oor1flyin! iPhone controlle% 0ua% copter by Parrot"
..'.9 1ospital assistants
Me%ical robotics Ginclu%e% in the services sectorH are poise% for many years of rapi%
!ro#th propelle% by2
@ro#in! patient %eman% for non1invasive sur!ery&
8he current effort to re%uce hospital costs by increasin! pro%uctivity throu!h
a variety of robotic activities Gnon1invasive sur!ery& pill %ispensin!& materials
transfer& lab assistance& etc"H&
Hospitals& #hich have hel% back capital purchases Gsuch as +ntuitive
Sur!icalNs million %ollar %a 7inci %evicesH for the past t#o years& are
be!innin! to reinvest in these types of e0uipment" (Source)
..'.9.' 3edicine 8ic(ing and ,elivering Robot 2ystem
Me%icine Pickin! an% Deliverin! 5obot System hospital robot G5obot for accurate
%elivery of the ri!ht me%icines to patients 1 use% in 50 hospitals alrea%yH
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR!>6EK3Ku3D0
..'.9.. 2urgical assistants
'ver the last %eca%e si!nificant pro!ress has been ma%e in me%ical robotics" 8o%ay
several thousan% prostate operations are performe% usin! minimally invasive robots&
an% the number of car%iac proce%ures is also increasin! si!nificantly
http2::###"us1robotics"us:reports:333^205eport"p%f
8hree1arme% robot kno#n as %a 7incib& #hich has helpe% to usher in the neAt
!eneration of minimally invasive sur!ery
8he practice of robotic sur!ery is currently lar!ely %ominate% by the %a 7inci system
of +ntuitive Sur!ical GSunnyvale& 3*& KS*H but other commercial players have no#
entere% the market #ith sur!ical robotic pro%ucts or are appearin! in the horiIon #ith
me%ium an% lon! term propositions" (Source)
..'.9./ 1eavy lifter
http2::money"cnn"com:!allery:technolo!y:2016:01:14:help1robots:5"html
..'.= 3ilitary assistants
5obots in unstructure% environments Ge"!" i5obot bomb %isposal robotsH
/9
..'.> 8olice assistants
..'.>.' 2pying robot%
http2::money"cnn"com:!allery:technolo!y:2016:01:14:help1robots:4"html
..'.>.' Robot micorobotsCinsects
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRcyjJ'?h+iuK
..'.? Agriculture and fisheries assistants
+n ?apan %rones %ust crops an% track schools of tuna (Source)
..'.'A Ne" forms of transport
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR5C%uLhA5lDL (totally ne# forms of travel" * car
takes the same space on the roa% as GpotentiallyH 14 #alkers" /y crunchin! the
space nee%e% for the motor an% eliminatin! the nee% for 4 #heels& future transport
coul% take far less space 1 lea%in! to a %ramatic re%uction in traffic con!estion2
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR5C%uLhA5lDL
Major solution to traffic con!estion2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRIb513vpt8t4
..'.'' 3anager<s assistants
8elepresence robots2 http2::e%ition"cnn"com:2016:0>:1F:business:telepresence1
office1robots
..'.'. 7ee pollination assistant
5obobee 1 pollinator:surveillance
2"2 Eorkers Gin manufacturin!H
....' &ndustrial robots
8here are a massive number of in%ustrial robots that operate in manufacturin!
plants& an% have almost entirely replace% humans"
8he #orl%Ns fastest robot Gin AstralianH"
2"6 Eorkers Gin retail:service in%ustryH
../.' 7urger ma(er
8his robot can make 640 bur!ers per hour
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /=
2"4 Humanoi% robots
HKM*='+D 5'/'8S 1 S8+CC ='8 * 8H5.*8 8' ?'/S
Humanoi% robots #ill take time 1 25 more years 1 to %isplace jobs" /ut in the
mean#hile in%ustrial robots #ill %isplace hun%re%s of millions of jobs
2"5 Personal assistants
..5.' Translators
@eo4luent offerin! from Cionbri%!e has brou!ht instantaneous machine translation to
customer service interactions" (5ace a!ainst the machine)
http2::###"thea!e"com"au:technolo!y:technolo!y1ne#s:its1the1thou!ht1that1counts1
20160D6112sAvp"html
,OEe hope that in a fe# years #eNll be able to break %o#n the lan!ua!e barriers
bet#een people&O the senior vice1presi%ent of Microsoft 5esearch tol% the au%ience"
8here #as a tense t#o1secon% pause before the translatorNs voice came throu!h"
5ashi% continue%2 OPersonally& + believe this is !oin! to lea% to a better #orl%"O
Pause& repeat in 3hinese"- (http2::###"thea!e"com"au:technolo!y:technolo!y1
ne#s:its1the1thou!ht1that1counts120160D6112sAvp"html)
* C'8 of people offere% to translate /4= into %ifferent +n%ian lan!ua!es over the
past 4"5 years& but not one #as successful in completin! the task" Most humans
%onNt have time:capacity:%etermination to %eliver on their commitments" 'nce this
translatin! system is available Gactually& it alrea%y isH& /4= can be supplie% in various
+n%ian lan!ua!es instantly 1 thus multiplyin! its sprea% 50 times"
..5.. @al(ing assistant
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRpp4VKv!0kbK GH'E 8' E*CJH
..5./ 1ousemaid
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR7.CIj>Ey!6L
/>
6" .conomic issues an% concerns
6"1 @lorious abun%ance %oesn$t mean absence of scarcity
+f there is abun%ance of everythin! then much of economics becomes irrelevant"
8here is a fun%amental la# of economics& thou!h& that there is no =ivrana or total
satiation"
People are not !oin! to stop #antin! thin!s" 'nce they have material !oo%s they$ll
#ant other Gmental:spiritualH !oo%s" Somethin! #ill al#ays be scarce& inclu%in!
priIe% places of resi%ence"
4urther& total of pro%uction #ill never %rop to Iero Galthou!h mar!inal costs may #ell
%rop to Iero in some casesH"
8herefore& all that the i%ea of 9!lorious abun%ance$ refers to is that mankin% #oul%
have have mana!e% to pro%uce most !oo%s re0uire% for its sustenance at very lo#
costs"
6"2 Machines an% humans2 complements or substitutes;
5obin Hanson asks2 are machines an% humans complements or substitutes;
+8 is a !eneral purpose technolo!y" 5obots can %o routine thin!s&" Human #ill nee%
to %o creative thin!s"
* human1computer symbiosis scenario can be ima!ine% #here the human is
%esi!ne% into the process"
,*ske% about the claim that such a%vance% in%ustrial robots coul% eliminate jobs&
/rooks (pro%ucer of the /aAter robot) ans#ers simply that he %oesn$t see it that #ay"
5obots& he says& can be to factory #orkers as electric %rills are to construction
#orkers2 ,+t makes them more pro%uctive an% efficient& but it %oesn$t take jobs"--
(Source)
6"6 3ost:benefit of robots:+8:technolo!y
5obots are not free" 8herefore the !eneral economic principle #ill al#ays apply& that
no business #ill %eploy robots unless the benefits of %oin! so eAcee% the costs"
8#o key factors are makin! robots more likely to be %eploye%2 GaH risin! labour costs
an% GbH fallin! robot costs"
/./.' Capital robots and consumption robots
Different treatments #ill apply to lon! live% robots vs" shortlive% ones Ge"!" floor
cleanin! robotsH"
/./.. Economics of drones
The economics of cheap drone delivery"
6"4 Say$s la# an% robotics
8he essential fear amon! technolo!ists Gan% confuse% econmistsH is that robotics #ill
lea% to !reater supply than %eman%"
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com /?
8he reality is that in a free market the supply creates %eman% Q since businesses
only invest to the eAtent they anticiapate a %eman%" 8he fact that somethin! is
pro%uce% is in%ication that there is %eman%" * proper un%erstan%in! of the Says$ la#
is crucial to un%erstan%in! the future of the robotic economy"
6"5 'verall increase in prosperity:luAury
/.5.' 8roductivity and gro"th
,8he economics of %i!ital information& in short& are the economics not of scarcity but
of abun%ance-" (Source2 5ace *!ainst Machines)
/.5.'.' The 3ay .A'/ 3c$insey report
Source2
http2::###"mckinsey"com:insi!hts:businessStechnolo!y:%isruptiveStechnolo!ies
5" *%vance% robotics
Durin! the past fe# %eca%es& in%ustrial robots have taken on a variety of
manufacturin! tasks& usually those that are %ifficult& %an!erous& or
impractical for humans\#el%in!& spray1paintin!& or han%lin! heavy
materials& for eAample" 5obotics is no# seein! major a%vances that coul%
make it practical to substitute machines for human labor in increasin!
numbers of manufacturin! applications& in many service applications& an%&
importantly& in eAtremely valuable uses such as robotic sur!ery an% human
au!mentation" *%vances in artificial intelli!ence& machine vision& sensors&
motors& an% hy%raulics\even in materials that mimic a sense of touch\are
makin! this possible" 5obots are not only becomin! capable of takin! on
more %elicate an% intricate tasks& such as pickin! an% packin! or
manipulatin! small electronics parts& but they are also more a%aptable an%
capable of operatin! in chaotic con%itions an% #orkin! alon!si%e humans" *t
the same time& the cost of robots is %eclinin!"
*%vance% robotics promises a #orl% #ith limite% nee% for physical labor in
#hich robot #orkers an% robotic human au!mentation coul% lea% to massive
increases in pro%uctivity an% even eAten% human lives Gsee /oA B& ,7ision2
Machines en% physical toil an% improve lives-H" Many !oo%s an% services
coul% become cheaper an% more abun%ant %ue to these a%vances" 8he
physically han%icappe% an% the el%erly coul% lea% healthier an% less1
restricte% lives usin! robotic prosthetics an% ,eAoskeletons- that strap on like
braces an% assist in locomotion" Ee estimate that the application of
a%vance% robotics across health care& manufacturin!& an% services coul%
!enerate a potential economic impact of Z1"B trillion to Z4"5 trillion per year
by 2025& inclu%in! more than ZD00 billion to Z2"> trillion in value from health1
care uses" 8his impact #oul% result from savin! an% eAten%in! lives an%
transformin! the #ay in #hich many pro%ucts are built an% many services
are %elivere%"
*%vance% robotics also hol%s a !reat %eal of promise for businesses an%
economies" .arly a%opters coul% !ain important 0uality& cost& an% spee%
a%vanta!es over competitors& #hile some companies coul% fin% that
a%vance% robotics lo#ers the barriers for ne# competitors" /usinesses in
%evelopin! economies coul% be amon! the bi!!est buyers of robotics !iven
the current rate of automationP ho#ever& these economies coul% be
ne!atively impacte% by fallin! %eman% for lo#1#a!e manual labor& upon
#hich they rely for economic %evelopment" 8he ability of robots to take on a
far #i%er ran!e of jobs economically coul% encoura!e !lobal companies to
0A
move some pro%uction back to a%vance% economies" +n a%vance%
economies& some #orkers mi!ht fin% ne# job opportunities in %evelopin!&
maintainin!& or #orkin! #ith robots" *t the same time& many jobs in
a%vance% economies involvin! manual labor mi!ht be automate% a#ay&
placin! even more importance on e%ucatin! an% retrainin! #orkers for
hi!her1skill jobs"
/oA B" 7ision2 Machines en% physical toil an% improve lives
+ma!ine a #orl% in #hich a%vance% robots eApertly an% ineApensively
perform an% au!ment most physical tasks" +ma!ine you are a mana!er in a
manufacturin! plant in 2065" *t your plant& injuries are virtually unhear%1of"
+n fact& there are fe# people on the floor2 a small !roup of hi!hly skille%
specialists oversee thousan%s of robots& interactin! naturally #ith the robot
#orkforce to pro%uce !oo%s #ith unprece%ente% spee% an% precision&
24 hours a %ay& 6>5 %ays a year"
Ehen a ne# pro%uct or %esi!n improvement is intro%uce%& factory #orkers
train robots to follo# ne# routines& usin! simple touch1screen interfaces&
%emonstration& an% even verbal comman%s" Most of your %ay is spent
optimiIin! processes an% flo#s an% even assistin! #ith pro%uct %esi!ns
base% on #hat you see on the factory floor an% the %ata that your robots
!enerate"
Durin! lunch& you s#in! by a local fast1foo% restaurant" Lou #atch as your
meal is prepare% an% cooke% eAactly the #ay you like it by a robot" /ack at
your %esk& you see service robots makin! %eliveries an% cleanin! the floors
an% #in%o#s" 'utsi%e& robots pick up trash an% replace broken street li!hts"
+n a #orl% of a%vance% robotics& sur!eons are assiste% by miniature robotic
sur!ery systems& !reatly re%ucin! both the time necessary for proce%ures
an% their invasiveness" 5ecovery is more rapi% as #ell" People sufferin!
from paralysis %ue to spinal injuries are able to #alk a!ain #ith the help of
robotic eAoskeletons %irectly connecte% to the nervous system"
D.4+=+8+'=
8ra%itional robots eAcel at tasks that re0uire superhuman spee%& stren!th&
stamina& or precision in a controlle% environment Grobot #el%in! or
semicon%uctor fabrication& for eAampleH" 8hey are bolte% in place behin%
railin!s to prevent injuries to humans" 8hey %o eAactly #hat they are
pro!ramme% to %o\an% nothin! more" /ut no#& a ne# !eneration of more
sophisticate% robots is becomin! commercially available" 8hese a%vance%
robots have !reater mobility& %eAterity& fleAibility& an% a%aptability& as #ell as
the ability to learn from an% interact #ith humans& !reatly eApan%in! their
ran!e of potential applications" 8hey have hi!h1%efinition machine vision an%
a%vance% ima!e reco!nition soft#are that allo#s them to position objects
precisely for %elicate operations an% to %iscern a part in a pile" 8hey are
po#ere% by sophisticate% motors an% actuators& allo#in! them to move
faster an% more precisely& an% some are ma%e from li!hter& softer materials"
8he KS Defense *%vance% 5esearch Projects *!ency GD*5P*H is even
#orkin! on robots that can fully automate the se#in! of !arments& usin! a
process that tracks the movement of in%ivi%ual threa%s an% precisely moves
fabric to perform eAact stitchin! ">4
>4 Jatie Drummon%& ,3lothes #ill se# themselves in D*5P*$s s#eat1free
s#eatshops&- Eire%& ?une D& 2012"
*%vances in artificial intelli!ence& combine% #ith improve% sensors& are
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 0'
makin! it possible for robots to make compleA ju%!ments an% learn ho# to
eAecute tasks on their o#n& enablin! them to mana!e #ell in uncertain or
flui% situations" /y 2025 a%vance% robots coul% be capable of pro%ucin!
!oo%s #ith hi!her 0uality an% reliability by catchin! an% correctin! their o#n
mistakes an% those of other robots or humans" 8hese robots can sense an%
0uickly react to obstacles& other robots& or human co#orkers& !ivin! them
!reater ,a#areness- an% makin! it possible for them to #ork more safely
si%e1by1si%e #ith humans" Many a%vance% robots can also communicate
#ith one another an% #ork to!ether on share% tasks" Some a%vance% robots
are %esi!ne% to be simple& small& an% ineApensive& #hile havin! the ability to
be net#orke% to!ether an% #ork in teams" 8hese %istribute%& or ,s#arm&-
robots coul% eventually be use% for %an!erous tasks such as search an%
rescue operations"
4inally& a%vances in interfaces& sensors Ginclu%in! sophisticate% tactile
sensorsH& an% actuators& combine% #ith improve% materials an% er!onomic
%esi!ns& are furtherin! robotic sur!ery an% %ramatically improvin! the 0uality
an% usefulness of human prosthetic %evices" Kltraprecise sur!ical robots are
makin! ne# forms of minimally invasive sur!ery possible that can re%uce
postsur!ical complications& enable faster recovery& an% possibly re%uce
sur!ical %eath rates" 5obotic prosthetics an% eAoskeletons are able to take
precise %irections an% make increasin!ly accurate an% %elicate movements"
=e# interfaces have been
%evelope% that can operate robotic limbs usin! small electrical si!nals
pro%uce% #hen muscles contract or usin! si!nals from nerve en%in!s or
even brain #aves" 8he capabilities of these prosthetics may soon come to
rival or eAcee% those of actual human limbs" 8hese a%vances coul%
eventually inclu%e prosthetic han%s #ith in%epen%ently movin! fin!ers an%
prosthetic bo%y parts that mimic the sense of touch usin! a neural
interface">5
8hese technolo!ical a%vances& combine% #ith %eclinin! costs& are makin!
entirely ne# uses for robots possible" 4or eAample& .l DulIe& a Spanish foo%
processor& no# uses hi!hly a!ile robots to !ently pick up hea%s of lettuce
from a conveyor belt& measure their %ensity Grejectin! hea%s that %on$t meet
company stan%ar%sH& an% replace them on the belt& #here other robots
position the hea%s for a machine that removes their roots" 8he company
says the robots are better than humans at assessin! lettuce 0uality Gthe
reject rate has fallen from 20 percent to 5 percentH& an% hy!iene at the facility
has also improve%">>
P'8.=8+*C 4'5 *33.C.5*8+'=
*%option rates for a%vance% robots #ill be %etermine% by many factors&
inclu%in! labor market con%itions" 4or eAample& in 3hina& #here #a!es an%
livin! stan%ar%s are risin!& #orkers are pressin! for better #orkin!
con%itions& inclu%in! relief
from lon! hours of precise piece#ork that can lea% to repetitive stress
injuries" *s e%ucation levels rise& fe#er #orkers are #illin! to take such jobs"
*s a result& 4oAconn& a contract manufacturer that employs 1"2 million
#orkers& is investin! in robots to assemble pro%ucts such as the *pple
iPhone">B *ccor%in! to the +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics Ga major
robotics in%ustry !roupH& 3hina is eApecte% to become the #orl%$s lar!est
consumer of in%ustrial robots by 2014"
>5 Me!an Scu%ellari& ,Missin! touch&- 8he Scientist& September 1& 2012"
0.
>> >D robots perform farmer$s #ork& case stu%y of 4anuc 5obotics .urope
S"*"& +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics& September 2012"
>B ?ohn Markoff& ,Skille% #ork& #ithout the #orker&- 8he =e# Lork 8imes&
*u!ust 1D& 2012"
@lobal manufacturin! labor costs to%ay are Z> trillion annually& so a%%itional
automation represents a hu!e opportunity"
Demo!raphics #ill also play a role in %eterminin! %eman% for a%vance%
robotics" 5obotic sur!ical systems an% prosthetics coul% help meet the lar!e
an% !ro#in! nee% Gparticularly in a%vance%& a!in! economiesH to provi%e
0uality health care" *n% many manufacturers still rely on le!ions of lo#1skill
#orkers Goften in %evelopin! countriesH to %o #ork that involves precise
operations on irre!ular objects& such as ben%in! tiny #ires to assemble
mobile phones or %ebonin! chicken breastsP over the comin! %eca%e& many
of these tasks coul% be automate%"
=e# applications for a%vance% robotics& particularly in services& are also
emer!in!" 5obots are no# poise% to take on %irty& %an!erous& an% labor1
intensive service #ork& such as inspectin! an% cleanin! un%er!roun% pipes&
cleanin! office buil%in!s& or collectin! trash" Domestic service robots are
another eApan%in! market" 8hou!h robotic vacuum cleaners have been
aroun% for years& sales of these an% similar househol% robots are no#
!ro#in! rapi%ly& by about 15 to 20 percent annually" *%option coul%
accelerate even further by 2025 as these machines become more capable
an% consumers consi%er the tra%e1offs bet#een buyin! robots& sacrificin!
leisure time& or hirin! professional cleaners or !ar%eners to perform these
tasks"
*%vance% robots are also of !reat interest to military planners& #ho see
opportunities to both automate combat Gsimilar to remotely pilote% %rone
aircraftH an% support human troops" D*5P* is investin! in a ran!e of
a%vance% robotics pro!rams& from a full robotics ,challen!e- Gsimilar to the
D*5P* @ran% 3hallen!e that pioneere% self1%rivin! carsH to four1le!!e%
robots for carryin! supplies& robotic eAoskeletons an% suits to stren!then an%
protect troops& an% a%vance% prosthetic limbs to help injure% sol%iers" 8his
type of military investment coul% !reatly spee% further a%vancement"
5obot prices are %roppin!& placin! them #ithin reach of more users"
+n%ustrial robots #ith features such as machine vision an% hi!h1precision
%eAterity typically cost Z100&000 to Z150&000" /y 2025& it is possible that
very a%vance% robots #ith a hi!h level of machine intelli!ence an% other
capabilities coul% be available for Z50&000 to ZB5&000 or less" +n recent
%eca%es& robot prices have fallen about 10 percent annually Ga%juste% for
0uality improvementsH an% may %ecline at a similar or faster rate throu!h
2025">D *ccelerate% price %eclines coul% be ma%e possible by scale
efficiencies in robot pro%uction G%ue in lar!e part to risin! %eman% by
3hinese an% other *sian manufacturersH& the %ecreasin! cost of a%vance%
sensors Gpartly %riven by %eman% for ineApensive sensors in smartphones
an% tabletsH& an% by the rapi%ly increasin! performance of computers an%
soft#are" Some entrepreneurs are focusin! on %evelopin! ineApensive
!eneral purpose robots that can be easily traine% to %o simple tasks Gsee
/oA D& ,Lour ne# co#orker& /aAter-H"
8he rate at #hich robots coul% proliferate is a subject of intense %ebate"
*ccor%in! to the +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics& in%ustrial robot sales
reache% a recor% 1>>&000 units in 2011& a 40 percent jump over 2010P sales
in 3hina !re# by more than 50 percent in 2011" Since 1FF5 !lobal sales
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have !ro#n by >"B percent per year on avera!e" +t is possible that there
coul% be even faster
>D Eorl% robotics 2012& +nternational 4e%eration of 5obotics& *u!ust 60&
2012"
!ro#th ahea% if /aAter an% other lo#1price%& !eneral1purpose mo%els can
%rive rapi% a%option in simple manufacturin! an% service #ork" *t the same
time& installations of a%vance% in%ustrial robots coul% accelerate beyon%
historic rates if robotics technolo!y continues to accelerate" *%option
scenarios #ill %epen% both on improvements in capability an% price an%
receptivity to automationP in a%%ition& si!nificant or!aniIational an% societal
barriers may stan% in the #ay"
/oA D" Lour ne# co#orker& /aAter
8o make robots useful in lo#1en% manufacturin!& they not only have to be
price% attractively& but they also nee% to fit into the #orkplace" 8hey can$t
take up too much space& they have to #ork #ell an% safely #ith humans& an%
they have to be easy to pro!ram" 8hese #ere some of the !oals for ,/aAter&-
a Z22&000 !eneral1purpose robot %evelope% by startup company 5ethink
5obotics" *nother !oal #as to put a frien%ly face on robots\literally" /aAter
features an C3D %isplay screen mounte% on a ,neck- above its
bo%y" 8he screen sho#s a pair of eyes that take on %ifferent eApressions
%epen%in! on the situation" 8he eyes follo# #hat the robot$s t#o arms are
%oin!& as a human #orker #oul%"
Ehile /aAter$s functionality is some#hat limite%\it is best at performin!
simple operations such as pickin! up objects& movin! them& an% puttin!
them %o#n\it makes up for these limitations #ith superior a%aptability an%
mo%ularity create% by the ability to install %ifferent stan%ar% attachments on
its arms" Ehen the robot is first installe% or nee%s a ne# routine& it ,learns-
#ithout the nee% for pro!rammin!" * human simply !ui%es the robot
arms throu!h the motions that #ill be nee%e% for the task& #hich /aAter
memoriIes" +t even no%s its ,hea%- to in%icate that it has un%erstoo% its ne#
instructions"
P'8.=8+*C .3'='M+3 +MP*38
Ee estimate that by 2025 a%vance% robotics coul% have a #orl%#i%e
economic impact of Z1"B trillion to Z4"5 trillion annually across the
applications #e have siIe% G.Ahibit BH" Much of this impact\ZD00 billion to
Z2"> trillion\coul% come from improvin! an% eAten%in! people$s lives" *n
a%%itional ZB00 billion to Z1"4 trillion coul% arise from automatin!
manufacturin! an% commercial service tasks" Ee estimate that the use of
a%vance% robots for in%ustrial an% service tasks coul% take on #ork in 2025
that coul% be e0uivalent to the output of 40 million to
B5 million full1time e0uivalents G48.sH" 8his coul% potentially have annual
economic impact of Z>00 billion to Z1"2 trillion in %evelope% countries an%
Z100 billion to Z200 billion in %evelopin! economies" 4inally& Z200 billion to
Z500 billion in impact coul% arise from the use of time1savin! househol%
service robots"
.Ahibit B
SiIe% applications of a%vance% robotics coul% have %irect economic impact
of Z1"B trillion to Z4"5 trillion per year in 2025
00
1 Ksin! <*CL G0uality1a%juste% life yearsH estimates"
='8.2 .stimates of potential economic impact are for some applications
only an% are not comprehensive estimates of total potential impact"
.stimates inclu%e consumer surplus an% cannot be relate% to potential
company revenue& market siIe& or @DP impact" Ee %o not siIe possible
surplus shifts amon! companies an% in%ustries& or bet#een companies an%
consumers" 8hese estimates are not risk1 or probability1a%juste%" =umbers
may not sum %ue to roun%in!"
S'K53.2 McJinsey @lobal +nstitute analysis
Health care
Ee estimate% the potential economic impact of robotic sur!ery an% robotic
prosthetics to be as much as ZD00 billion to Z2"> trillion annually by 2025&
base% on savin! lives an% improvin! 0uality of life" 4or estimatin! the
potential economic impact of robotics for human au!mentation& #e
consi%ere% potential uses of robotic prosthetics an% eAoskeletons">F /y
2025 there coul% be more than 50 million people #ith impaire% mobility in the
%evelope% #orl%& inclu%in! amputees an% el%erly people& for #hom robotic
%evices coul% restore mobility& improve 0uality of life& an% increase lifespan"
+t is possible that 5 to 10 percent of these people coul% have access to
robotic au!mentation by 2025 !iven the current penetration of alternatives
such as tra%itional prosthetics an% motoriIe% #heelchairs" Stu%ies in%icate
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that impaire% mobility contributes si!nificantly
to re%uce% life eApectancy %ue to increase% health risks such as injury an%
osteoporosis "B0
+f it #ere possible to eAten% life by one to t#o years for each %isable% person
an% provi%e a 20 to 60 percent improvement in 0uality of life over ei!ht years
usin!
>F 5obotic mechanisms that can be #orn by physically han%icappe% people
to help move limbs Gor even entire bo%iesH"
B0 4or more on the effects of %isabilities on life eApectancy& see 5" 8homas
an% M" /arnes& ,Cife eApectancy for people #ith %isabilities&-
=euro5ehabilitation& May 200B"
robotic assistance Gassumin! substantial restoration of normal functionH the
result coul% be a potential impact of Z240&000 to Z6F0&000 per person& usin!
a 0uality1a%juste% life year G<*CLH approach" +f these results can be
achieve%& robotics for human au!mentation coul% lea% to a potential
economic impact of Z>00 billion to Z2 trillion per year by 2025& much of
#hich coul% be consumer surplus accruin! to the users of these robotic
%evices"
*s the technolo!y for robotic sur!ery improves& it coul% have the potential to
prevent %eaths an% si!nificantly re%uce both in1patient care time an% misse%
#ork %ays" 5obotic sur!ical ,platforms- are alrea%y bein! use% for minimally
invasive proce%ures such as laparoscopic sur!ery" +t is possible that #ith
a%vances in robotic technolo!y& by 2025 robotic sur!ery coul% be #i%ely
use% for these an% other proce%ures" *pproAimately 200 million major
sur!eries coul% be performe% every year in countries #ith %evelope% health1
care systems in 2025"B1 3urrently& about 6 percent of all major sur!eries
result in %eath& but it is possible that by 2025& a%vance% robotic sur!ical
systems coul% help re%uce these %eaths substantially& perhaps by as much
as 20 percent& by re%ucin! common complications such as blee%in! or
internal bruisin!"
8his improvement in outcomes coul% be enable% by more fleAible sur!ical
robots #ith a !reater ran!e of motion that coul% perform more types of
operations& or from ne# features such as *+1assiste% autocorrect systems
that coul% #arn sur!eons #hen they are about to cut the #ron! tissue or
apply too much pressure" Declinin! costs in robotic sur!ery systems coul%
allo# more hospitals an% sur!eons to use the technolo!y& potentially
increasin! the performance of many sur!eons" Ee estimate that if 5 to 15
percent of all major sur!eries in countries #ith %evelope% health1care
systems coul% be performe% #ith the assistance of robots by 2025& it coul%
result in >0&000 to 1D0&000 lives save% each year" 5obot1assiste% sur!ery
coul% also cut in1patient stays an% sick %ays associate% #ith sur!ery by 50
percent" +f these results can be achieve%& #e estimate that robotic sur!ery
coul% have an economic impact of Z200 billion to Z>00 billion per year by
2025"B2
+n%ustrial robots
4or in%ustrial robots& #e analyIe% %ata re!ar%in! job tasks& occupations& an%
%istribution across countries "B6 Ee then consi%ere% #hich tasks coul% be
fully or partially automate% economically by a%vance% robots by 2025&
assumin! a hi!h level of robot performance an% continue% re%uctions in
cost" +n %evelope% countries& across occupations such as manufacturin!&
packin!& construction& maintenance& an% a!riculture& #e estimate that 15 to
09
25 percent of in%ustrial #orker tasks coul% be automate% cost1effectively
Gbase% on estimate% 2025 #a!e ratesH by 2025" Ee estimate that in
%evelopin! countries& on avera!e& 5 to 15 percent of manufacturin! #orker
tasks coul% be automate% across relevant occupations by 2025"
B1 /ase% on analysis by 8homas @" Eeiser et al"& ,*n estimation of the
!lobal volume of sur!ery2 * mo%elin! strate!y base% on available %ata&-
Cancet& volume 6B2& number F>66& ?uly 12& 200D"
B2 Ee use a 0uality1a%juste% life year G<*CLH of Z100&000 an% assume that
sur!ical patients avoi%in! %eath are restore% to a normal life eApectancy"
B6 *nalysis of job occupations an% tasks is base% on %ata from a variety of
sources& inclu%in! labor an% #a!e %ata from the .conomist +ntelli!ence Knit&
+nternational Cabour 'r!anisation& +HS @lobal +nsi!ht& .urostat& an% various
national labor bureaus"
Ee calculate% the potential cost savin!s usin! the estimate% annual cost of
a%vance% robots compare% #ith the annual employment cost of an
e0uivalent number of #orkers" 8his yiel%s a potential economic impact of
Z>00 billion to Z1"2 trillion per year by 2025" 8his #oul% imply a substantial
increase in the number of in%ustrial robots installe% !lobally by 2025& by
about 15 million to 25 million robots& re0uirin! investments totalin! about
ZF00 billion to Z1"2 trillion" 5ealiIin! all of this potential impact #oul%
therefore imply 25 to 60 percent avera!e annual !ro#th in robot sales&
si!nificantly hi!her than the avera!e !ro#th rate over the past t#o %eca%es&
but lo#er than the !ro#th rate in 2010 an% 2011"
Service robots
Service robots fall into t#o cate!ories2 those use% in commercial settin!s
an% personal robots" 4or personal an% househol% service robots& #e focuse%
on the potential to automate cleanin! an% %omestic tasks such as
vacuumin!& moppin!& la#n mo#in!& an% !utter cleanin!" 8he use of
a%vance% robots for these types of tasks has si!nificant potential !iven the
current trajectory of technolo!y improvement& the relatively lo# cost of the
robots re0uire%& an% the alrea%y increasin! rate of a%option" Sales of
househol% robots use% lar!ely for
the above1mentione% tasks are alrea%y !ro#in! by about 20 percent
annually" 8o estimate the potential impact of househol% robots& #e
consi%ere% the amount of time spent on relevant cleanin! an% %omestic
tasks& focusin! on the %evelope% #orl%& #here si!nificant a%option is most
likely" /ase% on KS an% .uropean labor stu%ies& #e estimate that F0 billion
to 115 billion hours per year are spent performin! relevant househol% tasks
in the %evelope% #orl%"B4 +f 25 to 50 percent of people in the %evelope%
#orl% #ere to a%opt the use of these robots by 2025& Z200 billion to Z500
billion #orth of time savin!s coul% be realiIe%" Ee believe this level of
a%option is possible !iven the rapi% a%vances in lo#1cost robotics
technolo!y& the relatively limite% sophistication of the robots re0uire% for
these applications& an% the %emonstrate% #illin!ness of many consumers to
pay for househol% time1savin! %evices"
4or commercial service robots& #e analyIe% %ata on job tasks& occupations&
an% %istribution across countries "B5 Ee then consi%ere% #hich tasks coul%
be fully or partially automate% economically by a%vance% robots by 2025&
assumin! a hi!h level of robot performance an% continue% re%uctions in
cost" Ee estimate that in %evelope% economies& across occupations such as
foo% preparation& health care& commercial cleanin!& an% el%er care& as much
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 0=
as B to 12 percent of commercial service #orker tasks coul% be automate%
cost1effectively by 2025" 4or eAample& nurses spen% up to 20 percent of their
shift time #heelin! e0uipment an% carts from one location to another or
#aitin! for a cart to arrive" So1calle% courier robots Gself1!ui%e%& motoriIe%
cartsH can take on these tasks" Ee estimate that
in %evelopin! countries& 4 to D percent of commercial service #orker tasks
coul% be automate% across relevant occupations by 2025" 8o achieve this&
#e estimate that 2"5 million to ei!ht million a%vance% robots #oul% be
necessary& re0uirin! an estimate% investment of Z200 billion to Z400 billion
!lobally by 2025"
B4 .stimates base% on %ata from 5achel JrantI1Jent& ,Measurin! time
spent in unpai% househol% #ork2 5esults from the *merican time use
survey&- Monthly Cabor 5evie#& volume 162& number B& ?uly 200F"
B5 *nalysis of job occupations an% tasks base% on %ata from a variety of
sources& inclu%in! labor an% #a!e %ata from the .conomist +ntelli!ence Knit&
+nternational Cabour 'r!anisation& +HS @lobal +nsi!ht& .urostat& an% various
national labor bureaus"
/*55+.5S *=D .=*/C.5S
8here are several important barriers that coul% limit a%option of a%vance%
robotics by 2025" 4irst& althou!h costs are %eclinin!& most in%ustrial an%
many commercial service robots remain eApensive& costin! tens or hun%re%s
of thousan%s of %ollars per robot" Sur!ical robots often cost more than Z1
million Galthou!h these costs coul% come %o#n an% fe# of these mi!ht be
nee%e% compare% #ith in%ustrial an% service robotsH" Car!e1scale a%option
of in%ustrial an% service robots coul% re0uire investments of perhaps Z1"1
trillion to Z1"> trillion by 2025" /efore makin! these investments& companies
#oul% likely re0uire stron! evi%ence of positive returns on investment& an%
establishin! a clear track recor% of performance coul% take years" *n% once
robots are purchase% an% installe%&
it can still take time to re%esi!n processes an% flo#s to fully take a%vanta!e
of their capabilities"
Sur!ical robots have alrea%y seen si!nificant !ro#th in a%option& but
a%%itional trials an% %ata #ill be re0uire% to fully %emonstrate their benefits&
particularly !iven concerns about health1care costs in the Knite% States an%
other a%vance% economies" 8here are also 0uestions about #hether
robotically assiste% sur!ery has %emonstrate% si!nificantly better
performance than nonrobotic minimally invasive sur!ery techni0ues& #hich
are less costly" Ehile the capabilities an% performance of the technolo!y
coul% improve si!nificantly by 2025& a%option may be constraine% until
%efinitive proof of results is available"
8he talent re0uire% to operate an% maintain a%vance% robots is an important
enabler that #ill be re0uire% to fully capture their potential" Some a%vance%
robots coul% be %esi!ne% to be very user1frien%ly an% able to #ork naturally
si%e1by1si%e #ith humans& but a%vance% robots may still re0uire a hi!h level
of eApertise to maintain their har%#are an% soft#are"
4inally& the potential effect of a%vance% robots on employment coul%
!enerate social an% political resistance& particularly if robots are perceive%
as %estroyin! more jobs than they create" *lthou!h the pro%uctivity
improvements that a%vance% robots #oul% create #oul% %rive !ro#th in the
economy& the #orkers #ho #oul% be %isplace% mi!ht not be easily re1
employe%" Policies %iscoura!in! a%option of a%vance% robots\for eAample&
0>
by protectin! manual #orker jobs or levyin! taAes on robots\coul% limit their
potential economic impact" Policy makers #ill face %ifficult 0uestions
re!ar%in! le!al liability& such as %eterminin! #ho is at fault #hen service or
househol% robots contribute to acci%ents or injuries"
+MPC+3*8+'=S
'ver the comin! %eca%e& a%vance% robotics coul% %eliver tremen%ous value
for robot creators& health1care provi%ers& manufacturers& service provi%ers&
entrepreneurs& consumers& an% societies" 4or many businesses& a%vance%
robotics promises si!nificantly re%uce% labor costs& !reater fleAibility& an%
re%uce% time to %eliver pro%ucts to the marketplace" /usiness lea%ers
shoul% look for opportunities to levera!e !ro#in! technolo!y capabilities to
help automate %ifficult& labor1intensive& an% %an!erous tasks in #ays that are
simple& user1frien%ly& an% cost1effective& #hether for treatin! patients or
automatin! manual #ork"
4or hospitals an% health1care provi%ers& a%vance% robotics coul% ultimately
offer substantial improvements in patient care an% outcomes" *s a result&
provi%ers
of robotic systems an% supportin! tools or services coul% see lar!e !ro#th
opportunities over the comin! %eca%e" Makers of robotic sur!ical systems
coul% see stron! %eman% for increasin!ly a%vance% systems but also feel
pressure to minimiIe costs an% clearly %emonstrate improve% outcomes for
patients" Makers of robotic prosthetics an% eAoskeletons coul% eAperience
similarly hi!h %eman% an% may #ant to look for #ays to reach %isable% an%
el%erly people aroun% the #orl%& even in less1%evelope% re!ions"
Manufacturin! an% service companies #ith lar!e #orkforces coul% benefit
from re%uce% costs& re%uce% injuries& an% lo#er overhea%& as #ell as
re%ucin! payrolls in human resources& labor relations& an% factory
supervisory roles" 4actories mi!ht no lon!er nee% to be locate% near sources
of lo#1cost labor& allo#in! them to be locate% closer to final assembly an%
consumers& simplifyin! supply chains an% re%ucin! #arehousin! an%
transportation costs"
Ho#ever& business lea%ers #ill face challen!es in capturin! the full
pro%uctivity an% 0uality improvements that coul% be affor%e% by a%vance%
robots" *%vance% robotics re0uires substantial capital investments& an%
businesses #ill nee% clear evi%ence of positive return on investment"
5econfi!urin! manufacturin! processes& service %elivery channels& an%
supply chains is %ifficult an% time1consumin!" 8rainin! employees to #ork
effectively alon!si%e robots is also no small task" 8o maAimiIe value capture
an% stay ahea% of the curve& businesses shoul% continually eAperiment #ith
a%vance% robotics an% a%%itional automation& i%entify promisin!
technolo!ies& rethink business processes& an% %evelop in1house talent" 8hey
shoul% also consi%er ho# their supply chains coul% be re%esi!ne% to
levera!e automation& an% ho# a%%itional spee% to market& fleAibility& an%
0uality coul% help %ifferentiate their offerin!s from those of competitors"
4or some entrepreneurs& %ecreasin! robot cost an% increasin! capabilities
coul% make entirely ne# business mo%els possible or %ecrease barriers to
entry in the manufacturin! an% service in%ustries" 5obotically enable%
pro%uction facilities& fast1foo% restaurants& self1service laun%ries& an%
me%ical clinics mi!ht offer superior efficiency an% 0uality an% coul% scale
0uickly" .stablishe% manufacturers may nee% to accelerate automation to
meet the competition #hile investin! in innovative pro%uct %evelopment or
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superior service 0uality to better %ifferentiate their offerin!s"
4or societies an% policy makers& the prospect of increasin!ly capable robots
brin!s potential benefits2 !ro#in! national pro%uctivity& hi!her10uality !oo%s&
safer sur!eries& an% better 0uality of life for the el%erly an% %isable%" /ut it
also poses ne# challen!es in employment& e%ucation& an% skill trainin!" +n
some cases& access to a%vance% robotics coul% cause companies to
repatriate manufacturin! operations from lo#1#a!e offshore locations" *n%
the sprea% of robotics coul% create ne# hi!h1skill employment opportunities"
/ut the lar!er effect coul% be to re%efine or eliminate jobs" /y 2025& tens of
millions of jobs in both %evelopin! an% a%vance% economies coul% be
affecte%" Many of these employees coul% re0uire economic assistance an%
retrainin!" Part of the solution #ill be to place even more emphasis on
e%ucatin! #orkers in hi!h1skill& hi!h1value fiel%s such as math& science& an%
en!ineerin!"
/.5.. &ncreased expectations
8he better the health robots& the more the %eman% for even more of them"
8he eApansion of the percolation of luAuries #ill continue unabate%"
/.5./ Really lo" prices
.ffect of competition an% really lo# prices2
http2::###"forbes"com:sites:tim#orstall:2012:12:10:that1robot1economy1an%1the1
rentier1class:
/ut there is a point at #hich it is uneconomic to supply2
http2::###"tobiasbuckell"com:2011:01:05:economists1consi%er1robot1economics1
nee%1to1rea%1more1fre%erick1pohl:
The robotic economy "ill be deflationary. 8lease get the confused $eynesians
out of the "ay.
Some time a!o + #rote about the irrational fear amon! Jeynesians of %eflation"
8he key ar!ument a!ainst %eflation is t#o1fol%2
aH +t prevents consumers from buyin! thin!s to%ay in anticipation of lo#er future
prices"
bH +t prevents investors from investin! in ne# projects since they are likely better off
by simply puttin! their money in the
bank"
+ %isa!ree on both counts"
Ehen P3s first came into the market Gin the 1FD0sH #e Gthe consumersH al#ays
kne# that if #e #aite% lon! enou!h& prices #oul% be lo#er an% 0uality hi!her" /ut
that never prevente% a !oo% number of us from byin! computers imme%iately& since
the benefits of that specific purchase eAcee%e% costs"
Similarly& %espite kno#in! that prices of P3s are !oin! to fall %ramatically over time&
pro%ucers have never hesitate% in rampin! up pro%uction" 8he cost1benefit of the
investment %ecision alrea%y 8*J.S +=8' *33'K=8 future lo#er prices" +t is the
overall 5'+ that matters& not future prices per se"
5A
Consumers and investors ma(e decisions on the basis of 3ARG&NAJ analysis.
They do not care about the specific value of AN! single parameter Eli(e priceF.
They care 6NJ! that net benefits Eor consumer surplusF L net costs EpriceF.
7usinesses can ma(e 1GGE 8&JE2 6B 36NE! even in the face of falling
prices.
$eynesian ideas are fundamentally fla"edM not based on AN! credible
economic analysis.
$eynesian policies are preventing G2AC;apan from gro"ing rapidly
+f prices #ere allo#e% to fall in KS*:?apan& consumers #oul% open up their purse
strin!s an% start buyin!" 8hat #oul% prompt efficient pro%ucers to start pro%ucin!
Gfor #hom the scale of the %eman% is a crucial si!nalH an% rapi%ly brin! the !lobal
economy out of its eAten%e% slump"
/ut such i%eas are anathema to the typical Jeynesian thinks consumers #ill only
consume& an% businesses invest& un%er inflationary con%itions"
Eho ever !ave them this stupi% i%ea;
Ehy are these people tryin! to secon%1!uess optimal free market %ecisions; Eho
ever allo#e% them to !ra%uate as economists;
& can only say this% that if $eynesian ideas are not entirely re+ected by the
"orldH then the onset of the Robotic Age N and the glorious abundance that "ill
accompany is * "ill be greatly delayed.
The Robotic Age "ill be accompanied by continuous 8R&CE ,EBJAT&6N for
362T goods and services.
8he 5obotic *!e cannot tolerate Jeynesian policies of artificial
Gmonetary:fiscalH inflation"
&t doesn)t matter in the Robotic Age ho" little consumers are "illing to spend.
&t "ill 2T&JJ be profitable to produce goods.
Co#er prices& better 0uality Gan% hi!h Q but possibly %ecreasin! me%ian #a!esH are
not a ba% thin!" 8hey are the si!n of */K=D*=3."
Cet the market fin% out its o#n prices"
Move out of the #ay& /en /ernanke an% Paul Jru!man" Lou are seriously harmin!
the #orl%"
Addendum
4or those #ho protest that Jeynesianism is lar!ely relate% to fiscal policy& let me
a!ree that there are stron! traces of monetarism in the lo# interest rate:0uantitative
easin! strate!ies of the 4e%" 8hese policies& ho#ever& are Jeynesian in approach
since they aim to stimulate the economy" + %isa!ree #ith any approach to Nfine1tuneN
the economy throu!h the central bankin! system"
/.5.0 Ja"s of investment "ill not change
$ey point2 .ven lar!e technolo!y companies can easily !o bankrupt Ge"!" *maIon
#orks at less than 1 per cent mar!inH" 3ompetition can %rive %o#n prices very
steeply" Multiple players in each technolo!y #ill keep %rivin! costs %o#n" *n%
althou!h o#ners of the technolo!y #ill prosper it %oesn$t seem likely that they #ill !et
eAceptionally richer"
Suppose @eneral Motors o#ns an in%ustrial robot" *s you say& it re0uires ener!y&
maintenance& etc" *ll that is ='8 consumption" +t is an input use% in pro%ucin! cars"
3onsumption occurs #hen someone /KLS * 3*5" +f no one is buyin! cars& @M #ill
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5'
shut the robot %o#n" +ma!ine an eAtreme case of a fully automate% economy" =o
one has a job or an income" =o one can buy anythin!" *ll the machines #oul% en%
up !ettin! shut %o#n& an% #arehouses #oul% be full of consumer pro%ucts that no
one coul% buy" (Source)
/ut this ar!ument is false
it is much better to simply mo%el consumption as bein! somethin! that an a!ent
%oes #hen they take in lo#1entropy resources an% spits out hi!h1entropy #aste"
8hen it becomes Mabun%antlyM clear that humans& machines an% corporations all act
as consumers" Lou %o not nee% to be a person #ith a bank account to consume"
8he robot fuel an% parts count" 8hey create a %eman% for a !oo% or service that %i%
not eAist before" *%% up all the purchases bein! ma%e instea% Gi!norin! #ho is
makin! themH Q to un%erstan% #here the %eman% for !oo%s in the economy is
MactuallyM comin! from Q an% then you #ill see that corporations an% machines can
account for purchases just as #ell as humans can Q #ithout the ,sci1fi- of robots #ith
incomes an% bank accounts" (Source)
Jey issue is that companies #ill pro%uce '=CL if it is economically viable" 8hat
inclu%es assessin! future prices an% %eman%" 8echnolo!y companies J='E to%ay
that future prices #ill fall" 8hey S8+CC choose to pro%uce" 8herefore& lo#er prices or
lo#er ability to pay is ='8 an issue of any concern"
/.5.5 Rising manufacturing productivity
/.5.9 &ncreasing share of services in economic output
3onsistent #ith the increasin! share of services in employment& the share of
services in output has also been increasin!"
5.
Source
6"> .ffect on innovation an% entrepreneurship
Ee$ll continue to see an eAponential increase in innovation"
/.9.' 2tart*ups are cheaper
,* tiny company #ith a %oIen people has access to infrastructure that only the
lar!est multinational coul% affor% 15 years a!o&- 7arian says" ,Lou can put in 7oice
over +P& you have @oo!le Docs& Eiki& email& social net#orks& chat" 8hese tools
#oul% have been ri%iculously eApensive 15 years a!o an% no# they are free&
ubi0uitous" So you can co1or%inate pro%uctive activity !lobally at a very lo# cost"$$
(http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:varians1analysis:story1e>fr!abA1
122>16DBF6D65
A .A'' research report for the $auffman Boundation by E. ;. Reddy and Robert
Jitany foun% that even thou!h the total number of ne# businesses foun%e% annually
in the Knite% States has remaine% lar!ely stea%y& the total number of people
employe% by them at start1up has been %eclinin! in recent years" 8his coul% be
because mo%ern business technolo!y lets a company start leaner an% stay leaner as
it !ro#s" (race a!ainst machine)
Shortly after the Cu%%ites be!an smashin! the machinery that they thou!ht
threatene% their jobs& the economist Davi% 5icar%o& #ho initially thou!ht that
a%vances in technolo!y #oul% benefit all& %evelope% an abstract mo%el that sho#e%
the possibility of technolo!ical unemployment" 8he basic i%ea #as that at some
point& the e0uilibrium #a!es for #orkers mi!ht fall belo# the level nee%e% for
subsistence" * rational human #oul% see no point in takin! a job at a #a!e that lo#&
so the #orker #oul% !o unemploye% an% the #ork #oul% be %one by a machine
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5/
instea%" ( (5ace a!ainst the machine)
6"B .ffect on labour share
Cabour share has much to %o #ith bar!ainin! po#er" /ar!ainin! po#er is relate%
both to mar!inal pro%uctivity an% relative scarcitiy of a resource"
8here are some su!!estions that technolo!y mi!ht be re%ucin! labour share Gi"e"
their bar!ainin! po#erH"
."! Coukas Jarabarbounis an% /rent =eiman in 8he @lobal Decline of the Cabor
Share& ?une 2016& su!!est that ,the %ecrease in the relative price of investment
!oo%s& often attribute% to a%vances in information technolo!y an% the computer a!e&
in%uce% frms to shift a#ay from labor an% to#ar% capital"-
Source
/.=.' @or(ers< bargaining po"er significantly reducing
=o %oubt there are continuin! effects of 'bamaNs terrible policies but also the rapi%
improvement in technolo!y that mean the same output no# nee%s less #orkers"
OEorkers feel like they have absolutely no bar!ainin! po#er&O sai% 5obert Mellman&
an economist at ?"P" Mor!an 3hase T 3o" (Source)"
/.=.. 7ut labour share "as much lo"er in the past
8hat +8 Gan% ultimately roboticsH has a role to play in this is not self1evi%ent"
50
Source
/.=./ &ndustries "here significant loss in labour share is occurring
/ar!ainin! capacity of labour is re%ucin! most in minin!& transport& manufacturin!
an% utilities"
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 55
Source
/.=.0 3ost importantlyH labour share is irrelevant
?ust like ine0uality is irrelevant& so also labour share is irrelevant" 8hese are
S'3+*C+S8 3'=3.5=S an% #e shoul% not #aste time #orryin! about them"
+t %oesn$t matter #hat share of the ,pie- is split bet#een capital an% labour" Ehat
matters Gin the broa%& philosophical senseH is that GaH people are free GbH there is
justice an% !oo% !overnance& GcH as a result the pie is increasin! an% G%H no one is
#orse off" Cet labour an% capital bar!ain in free%om" 8he main thin! is there shoul%
be incentives for& an% free%om& to pro%uce an% create #ealth throu!h ne#
technolo!y an% innovation"
5obotics an% +8 is entirely positive& the moment people remove their socialist
blinkers"
59
6"D .ffect on jobs
+t is eApecte% that the forthcomin! improvemens in robotics #ill be accompanie% by
the lar!est job1she%%in! episo%e in human history" ?ob creation #ill also occur& but
#ill not keep pace #ith job1she%%in!" Much of this net loss of jobs #ill likely be
permanent"
/y the 2020s it can be reasonably eApecte% that robotics #oul% have mature% an%
replace% millions of semi1skille% #orkers across the #orl%& particularly from the
%evelopin! #orl%" +n%ustry #oul% have move% back to the %evelope% #orl%" 8he
competitive a%vanta!e in robotics #ill likely see the baton of #orl% economic
lea%ership pass on to ?apan an% S"." *sia Galon! #ith KS* an% @ermanyH& #hich
are currently lea%ers in robotics"
,4arms employe% F0^ of the populationP automation re%uce% it to 5^" 8he chil%ren
of farmers #orke% in in%ustry" Ehen automation %estroye% those jobs& their chil%ren
became service #orkers2 technicians& mana!ers& etc" .ach step up increase% our
pro%uctivity& hence our income an% #ealth" 3an this continue;- (Source)
?obs are not just leavin! 3hina or KS*& they are leavin! the PC*=.8" =o more jobs
to pro%uce thin!s like shoes" '=CL %esi!ners of pro%ucts are nee%e%& !iven
universal robots an% 6% printers" (see2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR#b2c+S!?Kok)
Ho#ever& there is reason to be more cautious about such claims2
j%oe2 OSome time a!o G+ think in the N>0sH& eAperts pre%icte% that #ith continuin!
technolo!ical a%vances an% increase% pro%uctivity& the #ork #eek #oul% shorten to
20 somethin! hours" +nstea%& the opposite happene%" *mericans #ork lon!er hours
than ever" 8#o parents must no# #ork just to make en%s meet& #hereas one parent
use% to suffice" *mericans& at least the mi%%le class& certainly have seen any real
tan!ible benefits of automation" <uite the opposite" =ot to soun% pessimistic& but +Nm
not so sure the future #ill be much %ifferent"O (Source)
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5=
Ehen robots take our jobs& humans #ill be the ne# 1^" HereNs ho# to fi!ht
back
3ichael 7elfioreH The GuardianH 22 March 2014
Eill you be replace% by a machine; 8hereNs nearly a 50150
chance& accor%in! to a recent stu%y by 'Afor% Kniversity researchers #ho
foun% that 4B^ of the labor market in the KS alone is at risk of bein!
mechaniIe% out of eAistence" *pproAimately B02 jobs thus far hel% by
humans are no# threatene% by non1humans& as #e #ere remin%e% by a
#i%ely share% report on the stu%y this #eek"
+t$s not har% to see #hy" *%vances in robotics an% artificial intelli!ence are
brin!in! robots into more an% more #orkplaces" 4or eAample2
*utonomous vehicles no# in %evelopment by just about every major
automaker threaten the jobs of truckers an% cabbies"
8he /aAter robot from 5ethink 5obotics is %esi!ne% to #ork si%e1by1si%e
#ith human factory supervisors& learnin! ne# tasks on the !o Q somethin!
only human #orkers coul% %o previously"
5obotic sur!eons such as those ma%e by +ntuitive Sur!ical an% the open1
source5aven project currently re0uire human sur!eons in the loop& but
inroa%s have alrea%y been ma%e into !ivin! these machines autonomy as
#ell"
Knmanne% aerial vehicles Q as in& %rones Q are !ettin! set for inte!ration
into the KS national airspace neAt year& potentially replacin! the jobs of
many human pilots"
5>
My profession isnNt immune to robotic outsourcin! either" 8he <uill robotic
journalist %i!ests facts from ra# %ata& an% spits out fully forme% sports an%
business stories"
'h& an% Mark [uckerber! an% .lon Musk are no# backin! Oa computer that
thinks like a person eAcept it %oesnNt nee% to eat or sleepO" So thereNs that"
8here$s even a robotic bur!er flipper in the #orks" 8he #ebsite of Momentum
Machinesboasts that its slicin!& !rin%in!& fryin! robot can %o Oeverythin!
employees can %o eAcept betterO& an% that it #ill O%emocratiIe access to
hi!h10uality foo%& makin! it available to the massesO"
*ll of #hich be!s the 0uestion2 #ill there be anyone left #ho can affor% those
better bur!ers& or #ill everyone be out of #ork; *n% #hat the hell are #e
suppose% to %o about the inevitable rise of the machines;
8he march of the #orker %rones does seem inevitable& an% not just into
specialiIe% job functions" 8he Penta!onNs ma%1science research arm& Darpa&
is currently hostin! theDarpa 5obotics 3hallen!e for the creation of
humanoi% robots capable of #orkin! in %isaster areas that are too %an!erous
for humans" 8hese all1purpose machines are %esi!ne% to let themselves into
buil%in!s an% pick up an% use #hatever tools are at han% there Q in%ee%& to
%o the thin!s #e cannot"
*t the Darpa trials in Miami a fe# months a!o& + #atche% one of the 1>
stru!!lin! Nbots stare for 10 minutes at a %oor han%le& apparently uncertain
#hat to %o #ith it" 8he machine looked capable enou!h2 t#o arms& t#o le!s&
about siA feet tall& a hea% stu%%e% #ith sensors" /ut it #as %efinitely lackin!
in the brains %epartment" Still& the pro!ram mana!er at Darpa in char!e of
the operation ima!ines future versions servin! as in1home ai%es for the
el%erly or %isable%" 8he robots are in the primitive& baby1step sta!es ri!ht
no#& but thin!s can move 0uickly #hen it comes to Darpa robotics pro!rams"
*utonomous vehicles& for eAample& #ent from bein! unable to complete a
course throu!h open %esert in the Darpa @ran% 3hallen!e& to %eftly
navi!atin! simulate% city streets Q complete #ith human1%riven traffic Q in
three short years" 8hree KS states an% the District of 3olumbia have alrea%y
passe% le!islation re!ulatin! robotic cars on public roa%s"
Sooner or later& it seems& robots #ill have sta!e% a takeover not only of our
#orkplaces& an% streets& but also of our homes" Ehat then;
*s early as the 1F>0s& *rthur 3 3larke& professional visionary an% inventor
of the communications satellite& pre%icte% the en% of menial labor Gmental as
#ell as manualH& %ue to mechaniIation Gan%& more %isturbin!ly& bio1
en!ineere% apesH" +n his essay 8he Eorl% of 2001& ori!inally publishe% in
7o!ue an% reprinte% in his book 8he 7ie# from Seren%ip& 3larke #rote2 Othe
main result of all these %evelopments #ill be to eliminate FF percent of
human activity ` if #e look at humanity as it is constitute% to%ay"O
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 5?
'ur salvation& in 3larkeNs vie#& #ill lie in our lookin! to#ar% loftier pursuits
than all those kin%s of jobs that machines #ill take over2
&n the day*after*tomorro" society there "ill be no place for anyone as
ignorant as the average mid*t"entieth*century college graduate" +f it
seems an impossible !oal to brin! the #hole population of the planet up to
superuniversity levels& remember that a fe# centuries a!o it #oul% have
seeme% e0ually unthinkable that everybo%y #oul% be able to rea%" 8o%ay #e
have to set our si!hts much hi!her& an% it is not unrealistic to %o so"
'f course this %epen%s on our valuin!& as a society& in%ivi%ual kno#le%!e&
creatin! thinkin!& curiosity an% all the other thin!s that elevate us above the
level of machines" +t %epen%s on our fosterin! the kin% of society that not
only frees people from menial labor& but also enables them to reach their full
human potential Q not just !o be!!in! for #ant of a lousy job"
Ho# many #ays can a cook contribute to society other than flippin! bur!ers;
Ehat can a sports#riter %o beyon% comin! up #ith en%less variations on
Obeat&O toppe%O& OoutshotO an% O%efeate%O; +tNs about time to fin% out"
/.>.' ,erived demand for resources and labour
,Machines ` !uIIle oil an% re0uire spare parts just like any other creature"
Machines M%oM consume !oo%s an% materials Q creatin! consumer %eman% an%
stimulatin! the economy"- (Source)
9A
5obert *tkinson
/rynjolfsson an% Mc*fee mistakenly consi%er only first or%er effects of automation
#here a machine replaces a #orker" Ho#ever& there are also secon% or%er effects
that must be consi%ere% #hen evaluatin! the true impact of technolo!y on jobs"
3onsi%er an or!aniIation that implements automation lea%in! to cost re%uctions"
8hose %ollars flo# back into to the economy either throu!h lo#er prices& hi!her
#a!es for remainin! #orkers& or hi!her profits& #hich in turn stimulates %eman% that
lea%s to employment increases in other sectors" *n% for anyone #ho says that
people #oul%n$t be able to fin% thin!s to spen% their money on& just !o to a shoppin!
mall an% !ive the avera!e shopper Z25&000" 8hey #ill clearly fin% lots of thin!s to
spen% it on"
+t shoul% also be pointe% out that virtually all economic stu%ies analysin! the
relationship bet#een pro%uctivity an% jobs foun% either no impacts or positive
impacts on total jobs in the mo%erate term" *s the '.3D has state%2
Historically& the income1!eneratin! effects of ne# technolo!ies have prove% more
po#erful than the labor1%isplacin! effects2 technolo!ical pro!ress has been
accompanie% not only by hi!her output an% pro%uctivity& but also by hi!her overall
employment"
/ut #ait& isn$t it %ifferent this time; ?ust look at all the ne# cool technolo!ies rea%y to
take a#ay our jobs2 %riverless cars& artificial intelli!ence& an% of course& robots
/ut this time is actually not %ifferent" =e# innovations bein! intro%uce% #ill lar!ely
boost pro%uctivity in information1base% functions or routiniIe% functions& but not jobs
that involve interactin! #ith people Ge"!"& nursin! homes& police an% fireH or %oin!
non1routine physical tasks Ge"!"& construction or janitorial servicesH" +n a%%ition& ne#
technolo!ical !ro#th #ill create ne# in%ustries an% business mo%els that #ill
promote economic an% job !ro#th across the boar%"
8he reality is that& far from bein! %oome% by an eAcess of technolo!y& #e are
actually at risk of bein! hel% back from too little innovation" (5obert *tkinson
http2::###"i%easlaboratory"com:2016:0F:0F:robert1atkinson1robots1are1not1the1
enemy:
/.>.. 3any ne" +obs created by technology
+n or%er to make those robots #ork& companies nee% people for pro!rammin!&
maintenance an% repair" (Source)
,Ee are !ifte% #ith the vision of our times an% curse% #ith the temptation to
eAtrapolate that vision into the future" Ho# coul% our farmer kno# that in 2016
humans #oul% be pai% to make movies& pick up !arba!e& #rite online& buil% robots&
clean bathrooms& en!ineer rockets& lea% !ui%e% tours& %rive trucks& play in !ara!e
ban%s& bre# artisanal beer& or #rite co%e;- (Source)
*utomation entails hu!e upfront investments" 3ompanies that invest in automation
have to buil% or!aniIations to ensure stea%y supplies of hi!h10uality materials&
improve an% maintain machinery& an% capture sufficiently lar!e market shares to
achieve economies of scale" 8hese investments in the %evelopment an% utiliIation of
automate% facilities create lots of hi!h1value1a%%e% jobs& especially for companies
that& because of their investments& can !ro# lar!e by pro%ucin! hi!her 0uality& lo#er
cost pro%ucts than the competition" (Source)
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9'
/.>...' $inds of ne" +obs created
computer %esi!ners& buil%ers& maintenance people& application %esi!ners& improvers"
=ote that these are almost all hi!h tech"
* @K*5*=8..D ?'/ *E*+8S2 O8he shorta!e of people #ho kno# ho# to buil%&
pro!ram& maintain& an% repair robots has !otten so severe that& in some parts of the
country& 0ualifie% can%i%ates can practically #rite their o#n ticket"O (Source)
8echnolo!y & #hen unleashe% in a competitive market& has al#ays unleashe% ne#
jobs& in%ustries& an% professions" .Aamples of ne# jobs inclu%e those create% by
technolo!y companies e"!" !oo!le& etc"
Ojob creation in the future #ill ,center on three kin%s of #ork2 solvin! unstructure%
problems (eAample2 performin! %elicate sur!ery)& #orkin! #ith ne# information
(eAample2 analyIin! marketin! %ata) an% carryin! out non1routine manual tasks
(eAample2 movin! furniture)"-O (Source) *n% of course& more computer:robot
infrastructure relate% jobs"
/.>...' Number of ne" +obs created
,8hey count 6"5 million #orkers %irectly involve% ,in creatin! computer infrastructure-
\ soft#are %evelopers& systems analysts an% %ata eAperts"- (Source)
8here is apparently a ,job1creation ratio of 6"> jobs for every robot %eploye%-
(Source)
/.>...' &ndustrial robotics has created /5AHAAA ne" +obs
Do in%ustrial robots really have a positive impact on employment; 'f course they %o
an% there are over 50 years of %ata provin! that to be the case"
8here are at least 650&000 people %irectly employe% by an% in the in%ustrial robotics
in%ustry" 8here are ancillary provi%ers of components& soft#are an% other services
for robots an% installations but these jobs are har% to 0uantify"
(Source)
9.
(Source)
/.>./ 7ut +ob creation slo"er than +ob loss
Ee are bein! afflicte% #ith a ne# %isease of #hich some rea%ers may not yet have
hear% the name& but of #hich they #ill hear a !reat %eal in the years to come 1
namely& technolo!ical unemployment" 8his means unemployment %ue to our
%iscovery of means of economisin! the use of labour outrunnin! the pace at #hich
#e can fin% ne# uses for labour"
1 ?ohn Maynar% Jeynes& 1F60
Ho#ever& there is consi%erable evi%ence that jobs aren$t keepin! pace"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9/
Source2
+t can be ar!ue% that much of this is %ue to ba% KS policy2
+n the last three %eca%es the !overnment has pursue% policies that have the effect of
re%istributin! income up#ar% so that the !ains from !ro#th are not broa%ly share%"
8hese policies inclu%e a hi!h %ollar policy that makes K"S" manufacturin! !oo%s less
competitive %omestically an% internationally& a policy of selective protectionism that
lar!ely protects the most hi!hly e%ucate% professionals Ge"!" %octors an% la#yersH
from forei!n competition& an% a policy of shiftin! tens of billions of %ollars each year
to Eall Street banks throu!h Otoo bi! to failO insurance provi%e% at Iero cost by the
!overnment"
+f this ne# !eneration of robots en%s up makin! lar!e se!ments of the population
#orse off& it #ill be the result of %eliberate policies" +t is not the fault of the robots"
(Source)
8he !iant leap in unemployment numbers %ates from a very specific event& not from
a lon!1run process that has been %isplacin! #orkers over time" +n 200B& the
unemployment rate #as 4">" /y 200F& it #as F">& an% remains very hi!h" Ehat
happene% #asn$t a su%%en rush of robots onto the scene& but a financial catastrophe
that nearly tanke% the !lobal economy" (Source)
/.>.0 3ore lo"*paying +obs "ill be created
*s technolo!y re#ar%s the very hi!hly e%ucate% an% replaces the mi%%le class& there
is an inevitable tren% to#ar%s more lo#er1pai% jobs in the services sector 1 that are
currently too %ifficult to be replace% by robots"
8his implies an inevitable increase in ine0uality" .ven the poorest #ill have all
amenities an% +1phones& but theyNll earn proportionately less than before"
8he KS /ureau of Cabor Statistics estimates that amon! the most rapi%ly !ro#in!
occupational cate!ories over the neAt ten years #ill be ,healthcare support
occupations- Gnursin! ai%es& or%erlies& an% atten%antsH an% ,foo% preparation an%
servin! #orkers- Q that is& over#helmin!ly lo#1#a!e jobs
90
+n short& +38 creates an economy that is both ,hi1tech- an% ,hi1touch- Q a #orl% of
robots an% apps& but also of fashion& %esi!n& lan%& an% face1to1face services" 8his
economy is the result of our remarkable ability to solve the problem of pro%uction
an% automate a#ay the nee% for continual labor" (2ource)
/.>.5 $inds of +obs that are in the process of going
,+nvisible- robots& such as *ethon$s 8u!s& look like more pernicious job eaters& rea%y
to take over much of the #ork that hospital porters %o to%ay" Mr 8hrun offers Jiva$s
#arehouse robots as an eAample of a similar labour1replacin! system" *n% soft#are
#ill take over a lot of the tasks carrie% out by humans sittin! in front of screens" +n a
recent stu%y of the susceptibility of jobs to computerisation carrie% out by 3arl
/ene%ikt 4rey an% Michael 'sborne at 'Afor% Kniversity& many of the job cate!ories
at !reatest risk involve% har%ly any manual labour at all"
@iven the %oornail %umbness of machines& ho# can they take over so many
mo%erately skille% jobs; 'ne of the ans#ers is that if you have enou!h %oornails an%
enou!h %ata& there are #ays of simulatin! smartness that are provin! !oo% enou!h
to solve an ever !reater ran!e of problems& an% that problems restricte% to the #orl%
of %ata are much more tractable than those that re0uire manipulatin! thin!s in the
real #orl%"
*n%re# =! of Stanfor% is a pioneer an% a%vocate of this sort of ,machine learnin!-& a
pro%uct of the tren%s to#ar%s ever cheaper computin! po#er an% ever more
#i%esprea% %i!itisation that Mr /rynjolfsson an% Mr Mc*fee %escribe" Eorkin! #ith
@oo!le& Mr =! came up #ith a system that& usin! 1>&000 processors to look at a
si!nificant fraction of a vi%eo on Lou8ube& came to ,reco!nise- cats #ith no prior
kno#le%!e that there #as such a thin!" @oo!le uses relate% approaches to tackle a
number of more practical problems& such as machine translation an% voice
reco!nition" +t #oul% be surprisin! if it %i% not apply the same sort of thinkin! to its
ne# ac0uisitions in robotics& #hether they are use% in manufacturin!& in services or
for that matter in a!riculture or construction"
Mana!in! chan!in! tasks in a chan!in! #orl% means that many #orkplaces #ill still
nee% humans& but as #orkplaces become more efficient the number of people
employe% #ill shrink in the lon! run" Eilliam =or%haus& a Lale economist& has sho#n
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 95
that even thou!h the #orl% has become much better lit in an ever1#i%enin! variety of
#ays over the past fe# centuries& the number of people #ho provi%e the ever better
li!htin! has %ecline%" 8here is& in the en%& only so much li!ht that people can
consume" Many other human nee%s& too& can probably be satisfie% #ith less labour
in the future& thou!h that #ill take time" (Source)
,Peter Diaman%is sai% robots #ill also be responsible for the loss of 50 percent of the
jobs in the service sector in 10 years as they #ill compete #ith importe% labor
sources as the cost of labor #ill %rop to just the cost of po#er"- (Source)
/.>.9 ;obs "hich have gone
technolo!y is some%ay likely to a%vance to the point #here the majority of the routine
jobs hel% by avera!e #orkers #ill be automate%" 8hat is a lot of jobs\probably most
jobs" 8#o thir%s of our population %oes not have a colle!e %e!ree& an% even many
colle!e !ra%uates have jobs that can be broken %o#n into relatively routine tasks
that #ill be susceptible to soft#are automation al!orithms an% eApert systems" 8his
is somethin! that + think coul% potentially happen in the neAt couple of %eca%es"
O2ourceP
(Source)
/.>.9.' Jibrary
Self1check out
5eference librarians2 Eant to be pro%uctive; 4or!et the library" Kse !oo!le
scholar:electronic %atabases O+n a recent stu%y& @oo!le foun% stu%ents #ho use% its
search function ans#ere% 0uestions three times 0uicker than those #ho use% the
library"O http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:varians1analysis:story1
e>fr!abA1122>16DBF6D65
99
=orth 3arolina State Kniversity this month intro%uce% a hi!h1tech library #here
robots \ Obook/otsO \ retrieve books #hen stu%ents re0uest them& instea% of
humans" 8he libraryNs 1"5 million books are no lon!er %isplaye% on shelvesP theyNre
kept in 1D&000 metal bins that re0uire one1ninth the space" (Source)
/.>.9.' 2tevedores
Steve%ores replace%" 8his& a!ain& is just the be!innin!" 'nly 2016 no#"
http2::###"portbris"com"au:ne#s1me%ia:port1of1brisbane1a1snapshot:a1mo%ern1port
/.>.9.. 3ining truc( drivers
http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:ne#s:features:rise1of1the1machines:story1e>fr!>I>1
122>2F101401B
http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:business:minin!1ener!y:bhp1unveils1robot1
trucks:story1e>fr!F%f1122>50BDDBB14
/.>.9./ &phone "or(ers
1 million robots installe%2 http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:business:#orl%:robots1
threaten1chinas1#orkers:story1e>fr!F0o1122>10>4B>51D
/.>.9.' @arehousing "or(ers
See2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR6KA[D?1HiP.
*maIon has purchase% Jiva systems"
,* #arehouse e0uippe% #ith Jiva robots can han%le up to four times as many or%ers
as a similar unautomate% #arehouse& #here #orkers mi!ht spen% as much as B0
percent of their time #alkin! about to retrieve !oo%s" G3oinci%entally or not& *maIon
bou!ht Jiva soon after a press report reveale% that #orkers at one of the retailer$s
!iant #arehouses often #alke% more than 10 miles a %ay"H" Ehile the robots are the
company$s poster boys& its lesser1kno#n innovations lie in the compleA al!orithms
that !ui%e the robots$ movements an% %etermine #here in the #arehouse pro%ucts
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9=
are store%" 8hese al!orithms help make the system a%aptable" +t can learn& for
eAample& that a certain pro%uct is sel%om or%ere%& so it shoul% be store% in a remote
area"
- (Source)
/.>.9.' 7an(s
*8M machines replace% the tellers"
/.>.9.' 3c,onald<s cashiers
B000 cashiers replace%2 http2::ne#s"cnet"com:mc%onal%s1hires1B0001touch1screen1
cashiers:D60111BF6DS1051200>6B6211"html
/.>.9.' Telephone directory assistance
*utomate%& an%:or throu!h the internet"
/.>.9.' ,atacentre &T staff
+8 tren%s of eliminatin! +8 %atacenters an% consoli%atin! on the clou%"
/.>.= ;obs "hich are next in line
=ote that computers haven$t really become ,intelli!ent-"
/.>.=.' 6verall analysis
Mi%%le tier jobs Gbank teller& airport check1in clerk& travel a!ent& call centre Gthrou!h
7oice technolo!yHH have been the fastest to !o" O@ar%ener& hair%resser& or home
health ai%eO have been relatively safe jobs& so far" 'f course& these jobs pay virtually
nothin!"
+t can be easier to automate the #ork of a bookkeeper& bank teller& or semi1skille%
factory #orker than a !ar%ener& hair%resser& or home health ai%e" +n particular& over
the past 25 years& physical activities that re0uire a %e!ree of physical coor%ination
an% sensory perception have proven more resistant to automation than basic
information processin!& a phenomenon kno#n as Moravec$s Para%oA$" 4or instance&
many types of clerical #ork have been automate%& an% millions of people interact
#ith robot bank tellers an% airport ticket a!ents each %ay" More recently& call center
#ork 1 #hich #as #i%ely offshore% to +n%ia& the Philippines& or other lo#1#a!e
nations in the 1FF0s 1 has increasin!ly been replace% by automate% voice response
systems that can reco!niIe an increasin!ly lar!e %omain1specific vocabulary an%
even complete sentences" (5ace *!ainst the Machine)
*s Sin!er points out& the or%er in #hich jobs are automate% respective to one
another may be 0uite surprisin! GSin!er 200F& pp" 160Q162H" 4or instance& he
suspects that human hair%ressers may stay #ith us for a#hile because of their
respective skill set& inclu%in! the ability to put customers at ease GSin!er 200F& p"
161H" (Source2 5obots an% the chan!in! #orkforce& ?ason /orenstein & *+ T Soc
G2011H 2>2DBQF6
/.>.=.. AdministrationCbureaucrats
Ee can eApect automation of a%ministration an% #on$t nee% too much mi%%le
mana!ement in the future"
9>
/.>.=.' Call centres and helpdes(
OKS firm +Psoft has recently establishe% an *ustralian office to sell automation
soft#are that allo#s robots to replace humans in Cevel 0 an% Cevel 1 tech support
roles such as help%esk" +t alrea%y supplies virtual #orkers for companies such as
PfiIer an% *uto%esk& an% claims to have a%%resse% more than 1B billion customer
99inci%ents$$ #ithout human intervention" 8he company recently struck a %eal #ith
+n%ian outsourcin! !iant +nfosys to sell more virtual +8 en!ineers to ans#er 0ueries
such as #hen computer users nee% to have their pass#or%s chan!e% by their
company$s help%esk"O (Source)
/.>.=.. Ja"yers
=ot lon! a!o + ha% thou!ht that le!al outsourcin! to +n%ia may !ro#& possibly in the
area of le!al %iscovery" /ut machines no# %o that MK3H cheaper2
* March 2011 story by ?ohn Markoff in the =e# Lork 8imes hi!hli!hte% ho# heavily
computers$ pattern reco!nition abilities are alrea%y bein! eAploite% by the le!al
in%ustry #here& accor%in! to one estimate& movin! from human to %i!ital labor %urin!
the %iscovery process coul% let one la#yer %o the #ork of 500" +n ?anuary& for
eAample& /lackstone Discovery of Palo *lto& 3alif"& helpe% analyIe 1"5 million
%ocuments for less than Z100&000" 94rom a le!al staffin! vie#point& it means that a
lot of people #ho use% to be allocate% to con%uct %ocument revie# are no lon!er
able to be bille% out&$ sai% /ill Herr& #ho as a la#yer at a major chemical company
use% to muster au%itoriums of la#yers to rea% %ocuments for #eeks on en%" 9People
!et bore%& people !et hea%aches" 3omputers %on$t"$ (Source2 5ace *!ainst the
Machine)
/.>.=./ Retail
Self service checkouts& laser bar co%e scanners for rin!in! up sales& robotic D7D
stores G5e%boA"H& streamin! music& vi%eo& soft#are" 94ace to face interaction in retail
is lar!ely %isappearin!" 54+D for inventory an% or%er mana!ement as #ell as returns
processin!& automate% #arehouses& better inventory control mana!ement systems
have all re%uce% the hea%count nee%e% for a retail operation (see commentators
here)
*n% an article the same month in the Cos *n!eles 8imes by *lena Semuels
hi!hli!hte% that %espite the fact that closin! a sale often re0uires compleA
communication& the retail in%ustry has been automatin! rapi%ly"
+n an in%ustry that employs nearly 1 in 10 *mericans an% has lon! been a reliable
job !enerator& companies increasin!ly are lookin! to pe%%le more pro%ucts #ith
fe#er employees" 1 7irtual assistants are takin! the place of customer service
representatives" Jiosks an% self1service machines are re%ucin! the nee% for
checkout clerks"
7en%in! machines no# sell iPo%s& bathin! suits& !ol% coins& sun!lasses an% raIorsP
some #ill even %ispense prescription %ru!s an% me%ical marijuana to consumers
#illin! to submit to a fin!erprint scan" *n% shoppers are fin%in! information on touch
screen kiosks& rather than talkin! to atten%ants"
8he (machines) cost a fraction of brick1an%1mortar stores" 8hey also reflect chan!in!
consumer buyin! habits" 'nline shoppin! has ma%e *mericans comfortable #ith the
i%ea of buyin! all manner of pro%ucts #ithout the help of a salesman or clerk" (5ace
a!ainst the machine)
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com 9?
/.>.=.0 7utchers EabattoirsF
8his is a very %an!erous job" 8here is no %oubt that abattoirs #ill soon !et robotise%"
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvRKr74c0!HSC<UtR50
/.>.=.5 ,octors
G@Ps:sur!eonsH
Dia!nostic %evices Ghan%1hel% Q #hich %o a number of testsH #ill soon be there that
can %ia!nose most of our problems /.88.5 than %octors can"
https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRKKE0CoS'S+kTfeatureRc41overvie#1
vlTlistRPC4F.3**/6>D56.4.D at 12 minutes
Eatson is alrea%y !ettin! better than %octors in S'M. cases" .Apect it to outsmart
%octors in *CC cases in a fe# years no#" @oo%bye pathetic @Ps_ Eelcome lifesavin!
*+ an% robots"
O+Nve ha% a couple of patients #here Eatson foun% thin!s that + ha% misse%&O
says Dr" =eil Mehta& the staff physician #hoNs lea%in! the 3levelan% 3linicNs
en% of the Eatson project" O+t %oesnNt #ork every time& but itNs !ettin! better"O
'ne eAample is a patient sufferin! from sleep apnea1like symptoms" Lears
earlier& this patient ha% a bloo% !as test that #oul% have confirme% the
%ia!nosis& but the test results #ere hi%%en in a har%1to1fin% section of the
me%ical recor%" Eithout Eatson& Mehta says he never #oul% have seen the
result"- (Source)
HKM*= D'38'5S M+SS 50 P.5 3.=8 '4 3*=3.5S" E*8S'= '=CL
M+SS.S 10 P.5 3.=8"
O+t #oul% take at least 1>0 hours of rea%in! a #eek just to keep up #ith ne#
me%ical kno#le%!e as itNs publishe%& let alone consi%er its relevance or apply
it practically" EatsonNs ability to absorb this information faster than any human
shoul%& in theory& fiA a fla# in the current healthcare mo%el" EellpointNs
Samuel =essbaum has claime% that& in tests& EatsonNs successful %ia!nosis
rate for lun! cancer is F0 percent& compare% to 50 percent for human %octors"O
(2ource)
*rtificial intelli!ence& ho#ever& nee%s close shepher%in! since even the smartest
computer is still only at the level of a pre1schooler2
,+n the ne# stu%y& researchers %eci%e% to test out just ho# close tohuman
intelli!ence *+ has come" 8hey a%ministere% the verbal portions of a stan%ar%
+< test calle% the Eechsler Preschool an% Primary Scale of +ntelli!ence 8est
to 3oncept=et4"
8he machineNs score #as similar to that of a 41year1ol% chil%" /ut this #as no
or%inary chil%2 its intelli!ence #as all over the map" 8he pro!ram score% hi!hly
on the vocabulary an% similarity portions of the test& but floun%ere% on
comprehension sections& #hich are heavy on the O#hyO 0uestions"
O+f a chil% ha% scores that varie% this much& it mi!ht be a symptom that
somethin! #as #ron!&O Sloan sai% in a statement" (2ource)
/.>.=.9 Receptionists
In another 20 years expect most office receptionists to be replaced.
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRa4SD!M4urm*H
=A
/.>.=.' Call centres
8he en% of +n%ian call centres is ni!h" O.liIa has replace% +n%ia$s 8ata 3onsultin!
Services"O (Source)
*lso see this2
+f +n%ia canNt pro%uce *=L8H+=@ that others buy& if +n%ia canNt sell *=L S.57+3.
that others #ant& if +n%ia has no 5*E M*8.5+*C that others nee%& an% if +n%ia
refuses to improve !overnance:policy systems then the '=CL resource +n%ia #ill
have to offer is its most talente% brains 1 #hich the Eest #ill 0uickly snap up Gor
#hich may still be use% throu!h +nfosys etc"H& further impoverishin! +n%ia"
Eatson #ill %isplace a very si!nificant proportion of +n%ian call centres2
Oas many as >1 percent of all telephone support calls currently fail because
human support1center employees are unable to !ive people correct or
complete information
Eatson& +"/"M" says& #ill be use% to help human operators& but the system
can also be use% in a ,self1service- mo%e& in #hich customers can interact
%irectly #ith the pro!ram by typin! 0uestions in a Eeb bro#ser or by speakin!
to a speech reco!nition pro!ram"O (2ource)
/ut many may remain since computers haven$t really become ,intelli!ent-"
/.>.=.' 8harmacies
Pharmacies #ill feature a sin!le pill1%ispensin! robot in the back #hile the
pharmacists focus on patient consultin!" (Source)
/.>.=.. Bruit harvesters
Fruit harvester jobs are on the line.
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR74Hn4!0v+Jk
an% http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRnm6ES5y6k3k
4ruit an% ve!etable pickin! #ill continue to be robotiIe% until no humans pick outsi%e
of specialty farms" (Source)
/.>.=.' ,usting crops "ith pesticides
,+n ?apan %rones %ust crops- (Source)
/.>.=.' Cleaners
the more %eAterous chores of cleanin! in offices an% schools #ill be taken over by
late1ni!ht robots& startin! #ith easy1to1%o floors an% #in%o#s an% eventually !ettin!
to toilets" (Source)
/.>.=.' 8ac(age delivery
/y %rones" ,* Palo *lto& 3alif"& start1up calle% Matternet #ants to establish a net#ork
of %rones that #ill transport small& ur!ent packa!es& like those for me%icine"-
(Source)
/.>.=.' 2ecurity guards
8hrou!h satellites& remote cameras an% %rones& much security #ork can be
centralise%"
/.>.=.. AssemblyCpac(aging "or(ers
Most assembly:packa!in! #orkers$ jobs are likely to !o pretty soon& in the neAt 5
years at most2 http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRM.7I20V2Jo!
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ='
Spee%y bots able to lift 150 poun%s all %ay lon! #ill retrieve boAes& sort them& an%
loa% them onto trucks" (Source)
/.>.=./ Barmers
4armers http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
vR/f=/l/628@MTlistRPC0004F6/B/.0F/FD5
(+ntelli!ent machines are alrea%y in place)
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRnm6ES5y6k3k
/.>.=.' ,airy farmers Erobotic dairyF
See2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvREHSHcHDfAy#
/.>.=.. 8ilots
O.ven the 4165Ns champions conce%e that it #ill probably be the last manne% strike
fi!hter aircraft the Eest #ill buil%"O 8housan%s of pilots almost certain to lose their
jobs Gthis #oul% also inclu%e passen!er planes in the lon!er runH"
http2::###"economist"com:no%e:1DF5D4DB
/.>.=.' Binancial services and financial mar(et traders
5obotic tra%ers are no# actively use%" 94inancial services have become a !reater
share of @DP for post1reality economies" Much of it is automate%& con%ucte% by
robots$ Ga commentator hereH"
+f you are a !reat trea%er& you can convert your insi!hts into a pro!ram #hich can
then automatically buy an% sell"
(See2 http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:business:#ealth:hi!h1fre0uency1tra%es1
un%ermine1the1system:story1e>fr!ac>1122>4F>>2BD>1)
,8hink hi!h1spee% tra%in! on Eall Street" 8he li!htnin!10uick tra%es account for most
of the volume on the major stock eAchan!es& yet the action is %riven by computers
an% soft#are communicatin! #ith other computers an% soft#are& supervise% an%
monitore% by at most a relative han%ful of hi!hly compensate% #orkers" G*s a
Eharton School report put it& ,+n the time it takes to rea% this sentence& tens of
thousan%s of hi!h1spee%& computer1automate% transactions can occur"-H- (Source)
/.>.=.' Construction industry
4rom 11 minutes you see #hy construction in%ustry #ill soon be revolutionise% #ith
flyin! robots that buil% massive
skyscrapers" http2::e%ition"cnn"com:2012:06:04:opinion:te%1kumar1flyin!1robots
4ull fle%!e% major robots are not bein! %esi!ne% to buil% entire homes Q much
stron!er than normal homes Q #ithout any labour" http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
vRehnIf@P>s04
/.>.=.' ,rummersC musicians
5obotic ban%s are no# actively playin! ban%s Gjointly #ith humansH" 8he first
4lyin! robots playin! ?ames /on% music" *!ain& somethin! to be seen to be
believe%"
https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRSsKe@31D%yk
/.>.=.' Age carers E2ocial Assistive RobotsF
Social *ssistive 5obots are rapi%ly comin!2
See this"
=.
/.>.=.' 1ousemaids
=ee% a housemai%:helper; 8his is !ettin! close& but another 20 years an% theyNll be
super1functional" .n% of the en%less ar!uments #ith the mai% #ho never comes in
time"
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR7.CIj>Ey!6L
/.>.=.' 2hip repairers Eunder"aterF
5obots are no# bein! create% to %o this job"
http2::#hatsneAt"blo!s"cnn"com:2012:10:10:ho#1i1learne%1to1make1un%er#ater1
robots:
/.>.=.' @aste disposal
*utomatic sortin!:processin! is likely to become more common"
/.>.=.' Truc( drivers
8he hi!h#ay le!s of lon!1haul truckin! routes #ill be %riven by robots embe%%e% in
truck cabs" (Source)
+t #oul% be harsh to !eneralise& but +& for one& #oul% be glad to be ri% of truck %rivers
1 #ho are often eAtremely rash& an% after %ama!in! property& %eny liability Q puttin!
the common citiIen in !reat risk"
/.>.=.' Taxi drivers
http2::###"economist"com:blo!s:schumpeter:2016:0D:%riverless1cars;
fsrcRscn:fb:#l:bl:ne#leaf
+n fact& it #oul% be !oo% if taAi %rivers #ere replace% #ith self1%riven cars& !iven the
terrible reputation they$ve %evelope%"
/.>.=.' Astronauts
https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;featureRplayerSembe%%e%TvR0eDE[Fjk5<o
/.>.> ;obs "hich are mostly safe
*lthou!h a number of other jobs #ill make use of +8 in some #ay& they #ill use it
lar!ely in an assistin! role& #ith smaller %irect %isplacement"
,Problem is& home health care is an occupation that has one of the hi!hest
concentrations of lo#1pai% jobs set to !ro# by 2020& accor%in! to calculations by the
.conomic Policy +nstitute" *t least 45 percent of all employees #orkin! in farmin!&
personal care& buil%in! an% !roun%s maintenance& an% health1care support earn at or
belo# poverty #a!es" 8hese jobs often come #ithout retirement an% health1care
benefits"- (Source)
?obs that %eal #ith unstructure% environments are likely to remain2 ,people are still
far better at %ealin! #ith chan!es in their environment an% reactin! to uneApecte%
events" ,People an% robots #orkin! to!ether can happen much more 0uickly than
robots simply replacin! humans&- he (?ohn Ceonar%& a professor of en!ineerin! at
M+8 an% a member of its 3omputer Science an% *rtificial +ntelli!ence Caboratory
G3S*+CHP says" ,8hat$s not !oin! to happen in my lifetime at a massive scale" 8he
semiautonomous taAi #ill still have a %river"- (Source)
/.>.>.' &T related
+N% stron!ly recommen% that youn! people start takin! 3oursera courses in *+ or any
other technolo!y that interests them"
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com =/
/.>.>.. 8lumbers
/.>.>./ Electricians
/.>.>.0 Construction industry "or(ers
/.>.>.5 1airdressers
/.>.>.9 Gardeners
/.>.>.= 6ld age carers and nurses
/.>.>.> $ey government agencies EpoliceH +usticeH defenceF
/.>.>.? Comedians
+f you are a really !oo% artist:come%ian:sin!er& you too #ill %o #ell"
6"F 8he flourishin! of creativity
8he 5obotic *!e #ill be the a!e of creativity" Eith routine jobs out of the #ay& people
#ill be re#ar%e% for creativity"
8he rich #ill have plenty of time to pay for entertainment by live artists an% to !o to
art !alleries an% music sho#s" 8his #ill be the main !ro#th in%ustry"
=o matter ho# !oo% computers !et at art& there are thin!s that are uni0uely human Q
relate% to spirituality an% consciousness& #hich cannot be replicate% by computers
Gnor is there any nee% for them to %o soH"
+n this talk http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+& Michio Jaku eAplains
the kin% of creativity that #ill succee%"
/.?.'.' Creative artistsH "riters and entertainers
/.?.'.. Exercise and fitness trainers
/.?.'./ &nterior designers
/.?.'.0 !oga teachers
/.?.'.5 2piritual gurus
/.?.'.9 8sychologists and social "or(ers
6"10 8he challen!e for unskille% youth
8he solution& in my tentative opinion& is !oin! to be in the services sector in areas
#here computers:+8:robotics #ill take lon!er to penetrate" 8hat #ill re0uire S'48
SJ+CCS amon! the less 0ualifie% youth& an ability to relate to others& to care for
others" 8hey #ill have to make themselves useful to others& not just mechanically
capable of operatin! machines Gfor such jobs #ill no lon!er eAistH"
Eith the a!ein! population carin! skills #ill be in !reat %eman%" /ut only !oo% carers
#ill be in %eman%" Some carers #ill turn out to be criminals or other#ise
%isintereste% in care an% #e #oul%nNt #ant them insi%e our homes" +f ba% inci%ents
occur& people #ill s#itch to robots even in this area" ?apan has alrea%y starte% usin!
robots for this purpose" /a% carers can& ho#ever& !et jobs in other fiel%s such as
!ar%enin!& restaurants& or creative in%ustries"
6"11 .ffect on #a!es
8here #ill be jobs in the future" /oth hi!h payin! an% lo# payin! ones" +t is likely that
the ones in the mi%%le #ill !o"
=0
,Problem is& home health care is an occupation that has one of the hi!hest
concentrations of lo#1pai% jobs set to !ro# by 2020& accor%in! to calculations by the
.conomic Policy +nstitute" *t least 45 percent of all employees #orkin! in farmin!&
personal care& buil%in! an% !roun%s maintenance& an% health1care support earn at or
belo# poverty #a!es" 8hese jobs often come #ithout retirement an% health1care
benefits" ,(Source)
/.''.' Bact% Relative share of "ages in G,8 decline
http2::blo!s"reuters"com:feliA1salmon:2012:0F:2>:chart1of1the1%ay1the1lon!1%ecline1of1
labor:
O'ver the past 40 years& #eekly #a!es for those #ith a hi!h school %e!ree have
fallen an% #a!es for those #ith a hi!h school %e!ree an% some colle!e have
sta!nate%" 'n the other han%& colle!e1e%ucate% #orkers have seen si!nificant !ains&
#ith the bi!!est !ains !oin! to those #ho have complete% !ra%uate trainin!O" Ehat
chance %o most +n%ians 1 #ithout #orl% class colle!e e%ucation 1 have in tomorro#Ns
#orl% economy; (5ace *!ainst the Machine)
O8he link bet#een hi!her pro%uctivity an% people$s #a!es an% salaries #as severe%
\the income of the top 1 percent nearly 0ua%ruple% from 1FBF to 200B& #hile the
typical family$s barely bu%!e%"O ('bama in a speech on 24 ?uly 2016)
Source2 http2::economistsvie#"typepa%"com:economistsvie#:2016:0D:poverty1an%1
economics"html
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com =5
/.''.. 1ypothesis% Not technology but globalisation
8he +C' looks at a lar!er set of eAplainin! variables Ginclu%in! 9financialisation$H than
these authors %o an% fin%s2
,Ee have foun% that !lobalisation& i"e" increase% international tra%e& has ne!ative
effects on the #a!e share in a%vance% as #ell as in %evelopin! economies& #hich is
in contra%iction to the Stolper1Samuelson 8heorem" 'verall& the results are similar
for a%vance% an% %evelopin! economies& #ith the possible eAception of lo#1income
countries" 4inancialisation has ha% the lar!est ne!ative effect on #a!e shares"
8echnolo!ical pro!ress Ginclu%in! structural chan!eH has ha% substantial effects on
the #a!e share& but these have been positive since 1FD0 an% can therefore not
eAplain the %ecline in the #a!e share" @lobalisation an% #elfare state retrenchment
have ha% mo%erate ne!ative effects on the #a!e share"-
http2::r#er"#or%press"com:2016:05:01:#hat1causes1the1share1of1labor1to1%ecrease1
61!raphs:
Source"
/.''./ 1ypothesis% 8ermanently reduced "ages
http2::mo%ele%behavior"com:2011:01:04:unlike1immi!rants1robots1#ill1permanently1
%rive1%o#n1#a!es:
/.''.0 1ypothesis% "ages may not fall
#a!es may not really fall2
http2::future1econ"blo!spot"com"au:200F:11:artificial1intelli!ence1economics1an%"html
6"12 .ffect on employment
/.'..' The less educated have less of a chance of finding +obs no"
Source2 http2::theforvm"or!:%iary:bernar%1!uerrero:Iero1mar!inal1pro%uct
=9
/.'... Jo"er labour participation
7ery si!nificant %rop off in participation rate in KS* since 2000" *lthou!h 2:6r% is
%ue to %emo!raphic factors& 1:6r% is relate% to technolo!y2 Omany unemploye%
construction an% manufacturin! #orkers have stru!!le% to fin% #ork in !ro#in!
fiel%s& such as technolo!y an% health care& an% itNs not clear if or #hen they #ill&
Cavor!na says"O http2::###"usato%ay"com:story:money:business:2016:04:0B:march1
labor1force1participation:205BDDB:
=ote2 *ustralian participation rate is still climbin!"
http2::###"rba"!ov"au:publications:smp:2016:feb:!raphs:!raph1c1"html
/.'../ Employment may not fall in the long run
Here is a much more positive perspective" (8his)
+Nm not sure about the *ustralian eAperience that has been cite%& thou!h"
1H .ven in *ustralia& the me%ian income has sta!nate%" +f nothin! else& ine0uality is
si!nificantly increasin!"
2H '.3D has recently sai%2 O8he non1jobseeker population Gin *ustraliaH on
unemployment benefit is so lar!e that it nee%s more analysis an% attention"O
(http2::###"theaustralian"com"au:national1affairs:opinion:fi%%lin!1#ith1criteria1to1hi%e1
unemploye%:story1e>fr!%0A1122>>DD65F620)
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ==
/.'../.' There could be short run pain
8LC.5 3'E.=
Despite the !rim forecast& 8yler 3o#en ar!ues that #estern societies #on$t collapse
un%er the #ei!ht of future in%ustrial chan!e& but #ill eventually a%just to a ne# phase
of ubi0uitous automation\the perio% /rynjolfsson calls the 9Secon% Machine *!e$"
Ho#ever& he #arns that evolution #ill take consi%erable time to play out"
9+f you look at the +n%ustrial 5evolution that starts in .n!lan% say aroun% 1BD0 an%
for a lon! time a lot of jobs %o !o a#ay& #a!e !ains are very slo#& there$s a lot of
volatility& it$s not really until the 1D40s that real #a!es in .n!lan% are !oin! up
si!nificantly&$ he says" 9So + think this time aroun% it #ill actually be a lot like the last
time" Ee #ill have a transition perio% of many %eca%es" 8hat #ill be tou!h for many
people" +n the very lon! run it #ill be splen%i%& but alon! the #ay it$s not al#ays !oin!
to feel splen%i%" + think that is the historical pattern for a lot of these chan!es"$
(Source)
/.'../.. 1ours "or(ed by everyone may fall
+f technolo!y re%uces %eman% for labor by a 0uarter& that mi!ht translate
into everyone #orkin! 25 percent less rather than unemployment risin! by one1
fourth" 8he late economic historian 5obert 4o!el pre%icte% that the increase in
leisure bet#een 1FF5 an% 2040 #oul% eAcee% the !ain *mericans sa# in the 115
years before 1FF5" (Source)
6"16 +ncrease% ine0uality
See 3hrystia 4reelan% here" 8op 0"1 per cent of KS* o#ns D per cent of @DP" *
mere 2 people in KS* o#n more #ealth than 120 million people at the bottom 40 per
cent in KS*" 4acebook #ith Z100 billion in capitalisation& has less than 10&000
employees"
8his is only the be!innin!" +8 an% 5obotics are ra%ically re1#ritin! income %istribution
rules across the #orl%" + %isa!ree #ith 4reelan% that the only jobs left for others #ill
be to massa!e the top 1 per cent" 8he fiel%s of e%ucation an% health #ill blossom as
they have never %one before" +ma!ine the HK=D5.DS '4 M+CC+'=S in +n%ia
#aitin! for !oo% e%ucation to reach them" 8his is the time to focus on services"
8here has been a stea%ily increasin! trean% in ine0uality over the past century2
=>
,+ percent of the population of the Knite% States pays 2D"B percent of the income taA&
su!!estin! that as societies a%vance into the +nformation *!e they #ill eAperience an
even more ske#e% %istribution of incomes an% abilities" People are 0uite
accustome% to substantial ine0ualities of #ealth" +n 1D2D& 4 percent of =e# Lorkers
#ere thou!ht to have o#ne% >2 percent of all the cityNs #ealth" /y 1D45& the top 4
percent o#ne% about D1 percent of all corporate an% noncorporate #ealth in =e#
Lork 3ity" More broa%ly& the top 10 percent of the population o#ne% about 40
percent of the #ealth across the #hole Knite% States in 1D>0" /y 1DF0& recor%s
su!!est that the richest 12 percent then o#ne% about D> percent of *mericaNs
#ealth"
8he +nformation *!e has alrea%y chan!e% the %istribution of #ealth& particularly in
the Knite% States& an% is one of the reasons for the bitterness of mo%em *merican
politics& #hich #e eAplore further in the neAt chapter" 8he +nformation *!e re0uires a
0uite hi!h stan%ar% of literacy an% numeracy for economic success" * massive K"S"
.%ucation Department survey& O*%ult Citeracy in *merica&O has sho#n that as many
as F0 million *mericans over the a!e of fifteen are #oefully incompetent" 'r in the
more colorful characteriIation of *merican eApatriate /ill /ryson& O8hey are as stupi%
as pi! %ribble"ON Specifically& F0 million *merican a%ults #ere ju%!e% incapable of
#ritin! a letter& fathomin! a bus sche%ule& or a%%in! an% subtractin!& even #ith the
help of a calculator" 8hose #ho cannot make sense of an or%inary bus timetable are
unlikely to be able to make much of the +nformation Superhi!h#ay" 4rom this thir% of
*mericans #ho have not prepare% themselves to join the electronic information
#orl%& an an!ry un%erclass is bein! recruite%" *t the top of society is a small !roup&
perhaps 5 percent& of hi!hly e%ucate% information #orkers or capital o#ners #ho are
the +nformation *!e e0uivalent of the lan%e% aristocracy of the feu%al a!e\#ith the
crucial %ifference that the elite of the +nformation *!e are specialists in pro%uction&
not specialists in violence"
There is no inherent reason to suppose that technology al"ays tends to mas(
rather than accentuate the differences in human talents and motivation.
&orce2 8he Soverei!n +n%ivi%ual2 Masterin! the 8ransition to the +nformation *!e&
by ?ames Dale Davi%son& Eilliam 5ees1Mo!!
7irtually all commentators a!ree that in the robotic a!e ine0uality #ill increase2
8he income !ap bet#een the rich an% everyone else has !ro#n as mi%%le1class
manufacturin! jobs have been replace% #ith lo#1#a!e service jobs an% companies
have fire% an% cut their #ay to recor% profitability" /ut this is a compensation an%
investment problem& not an employment problem2 8hese jobs are nee%e%& #hich is
#hy they eAist" 4or a variety of reasons& ho#ever& the jobs just %on$t pay as much as
the heavily unioniIe% manufacturin! jobs that they replace%" (Source)
/.'/.' 3edian income barely gro"ing
8his last !eneration #as the first one in the Eest #here the avera!e #orker %i% not
eAperience real increase in income" 8he #orker benefite% from increase% 0uality an%
ran!e of pro%ucts& but not hi!her income"
/.'/.'.' G2A
+n contrast to labor pro%uctivity& me%ian family income has risen only slo#ly since the
1FB0s G4i!ure 6"2H once the effects of inflation are taken into account" *s %iscusse%
in 3hapter 1& 8yler 3o#en an% others point to this fact as evi%ence of economy1#i%e
sta!nation"
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com =?
+n some #ays& 3o#en un%erstates his case" +f you Ioom in on the past %eca%e an%
focus on #orkin!1a!e househol%s& real me%ian income has actually fallen from
Z>0&B4> to Z55&D21" 8his is the first %eca%e to see %eclinin! me%ian income since
the fi!ures #ere first compile%" Me%ian net #orth also %ecline% this past %eca%e
#hen a%juste% for inflation& another first" (5ace a!ainst the machine)
/.'/.'.' Australia
Gthis is *ustraliaH (Source2 p"662
http2::###"pc"!ov"au:SS%ata:assets:p%fSfile:000>:1224F>:income1%istribution1
tren%s"p%fH
/.'/.. ,ivide bet"een rich and poor rapidly gro"ing
8he %ivi%e bet#een the rich an% poor is !ro#in! rapi%ly 1 potentially eAacerbate% by
technolo!ical %isplacement" 8his tren% #ill accelerate& forcin! si!nificant people to
the bottom in the Eest" *n% the i%ea of nations like +n%ia catchin! up Gas a #holeH is
no# lookin! practically impossible" 8his chart is for *ustralia" KS* tren%s are similar
Source2http2::###"pc"!ov"au:SS%ata:assets:p%fSfile:000>:1224F>:income1
%istribution1tren%s"p%f
,.conomist .% Eolff foun% that over 100^ of all the #ealth increase in *merica
bet#een 1FD6 an% 200F accrue% to the top 20^ of househol%s" 8he other four1fifths
of the population sa# a net %ecrease in #ealth over nearly 60 years" (5ace *!ainst
the Machine)
O8he me%ian #orker is losin! the race a!ainst the machine"O (5ace *!ainst the
Machine)1 in the Eest" *n% !iven +n%iaNs refusal to at least take S'M. a%vanta!e of
mo%ern economics an% technolo!y& its fate is no# seale% at the very bottom of the
#orl%Ns pyrami%"
http2::###"philosophersbear%"or!:2016:05:avoi%in!1our1%ystopian1robot1future"html
>A
/.'/./ 2hare of corporate profits rising
,corporate profits as a share of @DP are at 501year hi!hs" Mean#hile& compensation
to labor in all forms& inclu%in! #a!es an% benefits& is at a 501year lo#-(5ace *!ainst
the Machine)
6"14 .ffect on asset values
http2::future1econ"blo!spot"com"au:200F:11:artificial1intelli!ence1economics1an%"html
6"15 5out of the mi%%le class
HereNs a more positive paper2 O+t is foun% that automation has a si!nificant positive
impact on pro%uctivity in the short run as #ell as in the lon! run" Moreover&
automation ten%s to re%uce employment in the short run" +n the lon! run& ho#ever&
employment increases"O +Nm sceptical about its lon! run conclusion 1 but there is no
%oubt that 5.*CCL lo# payin! service sector jobs #ill +=35.*S." +t is the mi%%le
tier GNmi%%le classNH that #ill be #ipe% out"
http2::###"aim1projekt"%k:files:robot1employment"p%f
,*n%re# Mc*fee says& an% many mi%%le1class jobs are ri!ht in the bull$s1eyeP even
relatively hi!h1skill #ork in e%ucation& me%icine& an% la# is affecte%" ,8he mi%%le
seems to be !oin! a#ay&- he a%%s" ,8he top an% bottom are clearly !ettin! farther
apart"- Ehile technolo!y mi!ht be only one factor& says Mc*fee& it has been an
,un%erappreciate%- one& an% it is likely to become increasin!ly si!nificant"- (Source)
Davi% *utor& an economist at M+8 has eAtensively stu%ie% the connections bet#een
jobs an% technolo!y" *t least since the 1FD0s& he says& computers have increasin!ly
taken over such tasks as bookkeepin!& clerical #ork& an% repetitive pro%uction jobs
in manufacturin!\all of #hich typically provi%e% mi%%le1class pay" *t the same time&
hi!her1payin! jobs re0uirin! creativity an% problem1solvin! skills& often ai%e% by
computers& have proliferate%" So have lo#1skill jobs2 %eman% has increase% for
restaurant #orkers& janitors& home health ai%es& an% others %oin! service #ork that is
nearly impossible to automate" 8he result& says *utor& has been a ,polariIation- of
the #orkforce an% a ,hollo#in! out- of the mi%%le class\somethin! that has been
happenin! in numerous in%ustrialiIe% countries for the last several %eca%es" /ut
,that is very %ifferent from sayin! technolo!y is affectin! the total number of jobs&- he
a%%s" ,?obs can chan!e a lot #ithout there bein! hu!e chan!es in employment
rates"- (Source)
6"1> .%ucation is the 4'K=D*8+'= of robotics:+8 revolution
Michio Jaku is very concerne% about the lack of !oo% e%ucation in KS*" H11/ visa
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+
Gfrom 45 minutesH
Ee nee% more physicsts an% en!ineers"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >'
6"1B 5e%uce% traffic con!estion
Eith %riverless half cars G!yroscopicH& traffic #ill also fall %ramatically as you %onNt
o#n any car but rent on %eman%" 8he car %rives up an% then !oes an% %oes
somethin! useful" F5 per cent of the time most of the #orl%Ns cars are 4*CC'E"
Ehat a brilliant man is this_ Peter Diaman%is" (see https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
vRKKE0CoS'S+kTfeatureRc41overvie#1vlTlistRPC4F.3**/6>D56.4.D)
6"1D 3han!in! !overnment services
.i!ht 8ren%s Drivin! the 8ransformation of @overnment Services
Automation of 2ervices
* variety of !overnment services& from traffic violations to buil%in!
inspections& coul% become automate% throu!h the use of embe%%e% sensors
an% intelli!ent& inte!rate% net#orks"
+n a%%ition to increase% efficiency& automation #ill allo# !overnments to
provi%e personaliIe% services at a level of 0uality previously reserve% for
private luAury" Machine learnin!& %ata minin! an% pre%ictive soft#are #ill
enable the creation of virtual civil servants& #ho can perform many aspects
of to%ay$s !overnment jobs"
8his tren% #ill alleviate the vast majority of stan%ar%iIe% tasks& leavin! civil
servants #ith more time to focus on the nee%s of in%ivi%ual citiIens"
3obile Q @earable Computing
+n the neAt %eca%e the number of mobile smart %evices #ill increase
eAponentially2 smart #allets& activity sensors& an% #earable %evices such as
au!mente% reality !lasses or contact lenses #ill inte!rate seamlessly #ith
their environment" =e# forms of #earable computers& such as to%ay$s
@oo!le @lass& #ill allo# people to %irectly eAperience %i!ital #orl%s as part
of their %ay1to1%ay physical activities" Mobile an% #earable computin! #ill
enable ne# forms of compleA interaction that create eAcitin! opportunities in
a ran!e of services"
3achine Jearning
Machine learnin! #ill enable computers to !o beyon% eAecutin! simple tasks
an% into ne# realms of pattern matchin!& learnin! an% meanin!1%etection"
8hese systems #ill learn to a%apt to human behavior an% provi%e services
that #ork intuitively an% effectively for their users" Machine learnin! #ill also
provi%e %ecision1support for professionals in various %omains& from me%icine
to or!aniIational strate!y"
2imulationH isuali:ationH and Gaming
3ompleA interactive simulations #ill enable ne# forms of %eliberation&
eAploration an% learnin! in a ran!e of fiel%s" 3itiIens& an% civil servants& for
eAample& #ill be able to test outcomes of policy %ecisions an% possible
scenarios before they occur& often #ithin a fun an% realistic !amin!
environment" *%vance% visualiIations #ill enable us to fin% insi!ht in the
oceans of %ata that #e create"
Right Time C Right 8lace Assistance
Po#erful analytic tools #ill become available to citiIens an% service
provi%ers& combinin! outputs from multiple %ata services such as the neAt
>.
!eneration of @oo!le search& +/M$s Eatson& or Eolfram$s *lpha" 8his #ill
result in a pre%ictive layer of services %erive% from observe% habits& %ata
correlation an% a%vance% pre%ictive pattern matchin!" *lthou!h they #on$t
al#ays un%erstan% ho# or #hy& tomorro#$s citiIens #ill be %eli!hte% by ho#
services appear to meet their every nee%` often before they are a#are they
even nee% them"
Technologies of Coordination
Di!ital platforms for the coor%ination of activities #ill eApan% rapi%ly& creatin!
ne# opportunities for reima!ine% service %elivery" 3ro#% source% services
such as Mechanical 8urk or oDesk& for eAample& #ill enable compleA #ork to
be broken %o#n into smaller tasks an% complete% by a #eb of eAperts at any
time an% in any place"
&ntelligent &nfrastructure
* carpet of net#orke% sensors #ill cover our built environment& enablin! ne#
levels of automation an% responsiveness" Planners& an% officials #ill be able
to 9rea%$ this %ata to fine tune smart systems& ran!in! from re%uce% traffic
an% to more efficient ener!y use" 8he implementation of self1%rivin! cars an%
%elivery %rones are another po#erful eAample"
8ersonali:ation
Data analytics an% smart interfaces #ill create capacity for hi!hly
personaliIe% customer services" 8his #ill allo# !overnments to serve
in%ivi%ual citiIens far more accurately an% effective than ever before"
(Source)
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >/
4" Social Gan% political:le!alH conse0uences
4"1 Eill liberate #omen
*s they can #ork from home& the role of #omen in the economy #ill chan!e"
4"2 .thics of robotics
8he #ait for a fully1functional robotic nurse is not just because the har%#are&
soft#are an% artificial intelli!ence nee% #ork" Scientists also nee% to fi!ure out the
best metho%s for safely usin! them"
ODeliverin! machines is not just a 0uestion of buyin! robots& even if in the future they
become cheap" 8here are many ethical issues&O sai% .spin!ar%eiro"
3urrently .spin!ar%eiro an% others are researchin! the a%vanta!es an%
%isa%vanta!es of robots over human caretakers" 8hey are also lookin! into the
potentially troublin! implications of a patient %evelopin! an emotional connection to a
robot"
O8his is a very vulnerable !roup& very frail&O sai% .spin!ar%eiro" OEhat happens if
they !et attache% to these machines;O (Source)
0...' &saac Asimov)s RThree Ja"s of RoboticsR
* robot may not injure a human bein! or& throu!h inaction& allo# a human bein! to
come to harm"
* robot must obey or%ers !iven it by human bein!s eAcept #here such or%ers #oul%
conflict #ith the 4irst Ca#"
* robot must protect its o#n eAistence as lon! as such protection %oes not conflict
#ith the 4irst or Secon% Ca#"
0.... @ill robots ta(e over the "orld-
?ames /arrat& in a book& >r Final ?nvention7 Artificial ?ntelligence and the ;nd of the
@man ;ra& has eApresse% concern that if *+ really becomes super1intelli!ent& it
coul% take over mankin%" (* revie# here)
+ many #ays& this %iscussion is premature& an% can be Gor shoul% beH parke% till at
least a mo%icum of 5.*C intelli!ence is achieve% by robots"
0.../ 1umans shouldn<t be doing such +obs any"ay
HereNs #hat Jelly has to say about robots stealin! our jobs2
8he fact that a task is routine enou!h to be measure% su!!ests that it is routine
enou!h to !o to the robots" +n my opinion& many of the jobs that are bein! fou!ht
over by unions to%ay are jobs that #ill be outla#e% #ithin several !enerations as
inhumane"
+f a job is so routine that it coul% be %one by robots 1 usually robots that canNt really
think but are really !oo% at %oin! mechanical tasks over an% over 1 #ill it be seen as
OinhumaneO by future !enerations; (Source)
>0
4"6 5e!ulatory impact: re!ulation of robots
*n% the =eva%a state le!islature %irecte% its Department of Motor 7ehicles to come
up #ith re!ulations coverin! autonomous vehicles on the state$s roa%s" (5ace
a!ainst the machine)
?apan is #orkin! on robot re!ulation Q to ensure that robots behave appropriately"
8his vi%eo contains a panel %iscussion on robot sol%iers an% killer robots& an%
hi!hli!hts the importance of appropriate re!ulatory frame#orks2
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRv=2a.?y+04D Gkiller robots Q the future of #arH
0./.' 8rivacy issues
8his #ill nee% serious re!ulatory #ork in the comin! %eca%es"
8his is an eye1openin! Galthou!h lon! but entirely #orth#hileH vi%eo"
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRStpsH05.C!4
+n casinos there is total surveillance2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;
vR@mun4inma@L
*n% of course in Disneylan%& etc"
/asically there is no# =' #ay #e can prevent 8'8*C SK57.+CC*=3. by
corporations an% !overnments of our eAistence" +t is alrea%y happenin!& an% #ill only
increase"
8his creates a fun%amental threat to human %i!nity an% liberty 1 t#o key principles of
%emocracy" 8here has been a systematic attack on these t#o principles over the
past %eca%e because even the KS* %oesnNt have any le!al frame#ork to protect
in%ivi%ual o#nership of %ata about them" Privacy la#s are totally ineffectual Gan%
in%ee%& ar!uably unnecessaryH"
8he '=CL #ay our privacy can ultimately be protecte% is if #e o#n *CC %ata about
ourselves" 8hat means if anyone #ishes to use in%ivi%ualise% %ata for a commercial
use he:she must pay for it 1 unless it is a !overnment investi!ation authorise% by a
court"
+ believe appropriate re!ulation nee%s to be create% to make information about each
in%ivi%ual a property ri!ht" +f the 5obotic .conomy %oesnNt evolve such o#nership
ri!hts& then #e are hea%e% for a state much #orse than the 'r#ellian 1FD4 #here
not just privacy #oul% have !one& even free%om an% %i!nity #oul% no lon!er eAist as
a concept"
+n the a!e of increasin! ine0uality the avera!e citiIen coul% #ell become a %i!ital
slave"
0./.. The dissolution of the nation state
8he bor%erless #orl%" 8he nee% for !lobal harmonisation is likely to become ur!ent
an% very pressin!" /ut this #ill remain 0uite %ifficult"
+f !overnments %on$t re!ulate properly& then .=8+5. +=DKS85+.S #ill mi!rate to
other countries" ."!" health:sur!ery:e%ucation"
4"4 =ee% for appropriate market mechanisms& business mo%els
an% re!ulatory policy
+n this vi%eo& http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRce.o!1VS5'+ Michael Schra!e
refers to the nee% for innovation in business mo%els an% policy"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >5
8his in%icates the increasin! importance of economic theory Ge"!" Hal 7arian$s
innovationsH in the future"
8here #ill be a nee% to make money in a %ifferent #ay"
4"5 8he problems of the unemploye%
=otions of simply re%istributin! the #ealth miss the fact that the returns on #ork
aren$t just measure% in #a!es" 8he #orkplace is a major institution in society" Eork
is a social environment& #ith birth%ay celebrations an% coffee klatches& purpose an%
GhopefullyH meanin!" People #ho #ork are less lonely on avera!e than people #ho
%on$t" People #ith jobs feel connecte% to their #i%er community" ?obs can be an%
shoul% be mentally stimulatin! an% emotionally en!a!in!" ,4or most people& #ork is
a community&- says Meir Statman& a finance professor at Santa 3lara Kniversity"
(Source)
0.5.' 3eaninglessness
http2::###"philosophersbear%"or!:2016:05:avoi%in!1our1%ystopian1robot1future"html
0.5.. 3ass leisure
http2::###"philosophersbear%"or!:2016:05:avoi%in!1our1%ystopian1robot1future"html
0.5./ Negative effects of expectorations
http2::###"#ire%"com:!a%!etlab:200D:10:as1computers1!e:
>9
5" .ffect on nations
5"1 Develope% nations
Develope% nations Gor even nations like 3hina #hich are pursuin! robotics activelyH
are likely to be able to !ro# rapi%ly throu!h eAports"
*n% Solo#& #ho is DB& notes that the aspirations of billions of poor people in other
parts of the #orl% #ill create ample room for continue% economic !ro#th\an%
employment\aroun% the !lobe" ,Some of that #ill be %one by those lar!e lo#1#a!e
populations& but it offers plenty of opportunities for hi!her1pro%uctivity& hi!her1#a!e
#orkers in the rich countries to eAport&- he says" (Source)
5.'.' Effect of robotics on G2A
KS*& in particular& has lost many millions of jobs %ue to offshorin!" (,O'ver the past
%eca%e the KS has lost > million manufacturin! jobs"- 1 Source)
3ountries like KS* are likely to see an increase in jobs in the short run %ue to
increase% robotics as manufacturin! returns to KS* Gonshorin!H" Manufacturin!
accounts for 11^ of employment in the K"S" but 24^ in @ermany an% 2B^ in South
Jorea" 8here is si!nificant scope to brin! manufacturin! back to KS*"
'nshorin!& ho#ever& #ill occur only #hen robots become sufficiently cheap an%
fleAible" 8his is no# startin! to happen"
,5obotics is a critical factor in rebalancin! #orl% manufacturin! economies because
it re%uces the threat from lo#1cost1of1labor countries"- (Source)
,*pple is movin! some manufacturin! /*3J to the KS* from abroa%" 8erme%
reshorin! #ork" /ut instea% of 1&000s of factory #orkers& it is eApecte%
8'8*C employment& inclu%in! the receptionist& to be 200" Ehy; *utomation"-
(Source)
3y comment
Ee shoul% be concerne% about the re%uction in liberties in KS*& not so much these
market:technolo!y1base% tren%s" Ciberty is the man%atory con%ition& mi%%le class is
optional" +f liberty is available to everyone Gan% therefore opportunityH then people
#on$t really care so much about the inevitably increasin! ine0uality"
+f there is enou!h prosperity throu!h mo%ern technolo!y& then pro!ressive taAation
can rebalance %istribution Galthou!h + %isa!ree #ith this i%ea of 9rebalancin!$H& if
necessary"
8he risk comes not from the re%ucin! mi%%le class but from increasin! restrictions on
technolo!y an% capital" *n% fe%eral %ebt" +f such restrictions Gan% over1spen%in! by
!overnmentH are not remove%& technolo!y an% capital fli!ht #ill occur& %rivin! a#ay
even prosperity from KS*" (Source)
5.'.. Effect of robotics on Australia
8he future for most small nations like *ustralia is !oin! to be some#hat similar to
+n%ia in the robotic a!e" *s major factories locate to KS*:?apan:Jorea:@ermany
Error! No text of specified style in document.
Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >=
G!iven their intellectual a%vanta!e in roboticsH& countries like *ustralia #ill become
mere consumers" 8here #ill set in an ever1#i%enin! !ap in the @DP of robotise%
nations an% ill1prepare% nations like *ustralia" Sta!nant income for the vast majority
of *ustralians #ill become chronic"
*ustralia spen%s hun%re%s of millions of %ollars in the name of OinnovationO" =ot sure
ho# much of that !oes to#ar%s artificial intelli!ence" So far nothin! #orth mentionin!
in the robotics:*+ stable has emer!e% from *ustralia Gthere is the /oein! cockpit
%esi!n& thou!hH" +n the en% it is !oin! to be only about /5*+= P'E.5 an% ability to
multiply the human brain a million times throu!h robots:*+" 8o%ay *ustralia %epen%s
on *mericans an% ?apanese to buil% its cars locally& an% has no ability to buil% a 87
set:computer:mobile phone:voice reco!nition system" 8here is no internal
%evelopment of innovation" +ts future is not lookin! !reat"
5"2 Developin! nations
5...' Effect of robotics on China
3hina is consciously focusin! on robotics as a strate!y to prevent Eestern
onshorin!" 8his is likely to make 3hina a major manufacturin! hub even in the future"
5.... Effect of robotics on &ndia
5.....' &ndia has missed the boat
+n%ia has misse% the boat" 8he #orl% of robotics an% machines is makin! +n%ia
re%un%ant to the #orl% economy" 8oo little 4D+& 10th rate e%ucation system& Iero
infrastructure& caste system& an% 100th rate !overnance system" Massive chan!e is
un%er#ay& much bi!!er than the 3hina story" + %onNt kno# #hether +n%ia is even
a#are of #hat is !oin! on_
5...... &ndia has virtually no chance of being a manufacturing nation no"
HereNs #here +n%ia nee%s to move no# 1 to#ar%s services" +t has virtually no chance
in manufacturin! Gthe onset of the 5obotic *!e couple% #ith +n%iaNs terrible socialist
policies 1 #hich blocke% 4D+ at the ri!ht time 1 almost entirely rule out major
manufacturin! in +n%iaH"
+ts focus Gin terms of employmentH shoul% be on increase% e%ucation& health an%
services" *!riculture shoul% be allo#e% to mechanise% as soon as practicable" +8
in%ustry is +n%iaNs J.L future in%ustry" 4ortunately& in this area +n%ia is relatively #ell
place%" +n%ia shoul% provi%e the intellectual input for ne# soft#are:robots an% its
entrepreneurs shoul% M*SS+7.CL eAploit the opportunity to fun% their i%eas throu!h
ne# cro#%fun%in! mo%els"
=ote that +Nm not Oa%vocatin!O that +n%ia skip manufacturin!" +Nm merely statin! the
fact that +n%ia is no# +55.C.7*=8 to !lobal manufacturin!" 3hina is not" .ven in
the 5obotic *!e 3hina #ill %o a lot of manufacturin!" +n%iaNs #in%o# #as rou!hly till
to%ay Gsince 1F4BH& but no# that #in%o# has lar!ely close%" +n%ia shoul% still try to
ramp up +8:robotics& but it has a very remote chance no# of ever catchin! up either
in income or output& #ith the Eest"
5...../ &ndia is going to continue to lose top &T talent to the @est
*ttractin! top technical talent from +n%ia Gan% other %evelopin! countriesH is a
D.C+/.5*8. strate!y in the Eest to create innovation an% jobs in the face of rapi%
loss of jobs in tra%itional in%ustries:services" 'nly top talent is #ante%"
+ %onNt see ho# +n%ia can possibly retain its talent !iven miserable policies of
3on!ress:/?P" 8hese primitive OpartiesO an% their lea%ers are fi!htin! ancient
me%ieval battles #hen the robotics a!e is alrea%y upon us"
>>
8hese people have no sense of ur!ency that the time to act is almost over" ?ust like
4++ %raine% a#ay recently& 4D+ #ill come to a halt GeAcept in a fe# areas such as
insurance:retailH as manufacturin! shifts back to the Eest an% most outsourcin! is
ma%e irrelevant by technolo!y"
+n%ia faces a bleak future" Sometimes + feel that it is best for all talent to @.8 'K8 of
+n%ia 1 so it can at least achieve somethin! in life" Millions of lives are bein! totally
#aste% in +n%ia"
+=D+* +S CK3JL 8H*8 KS H*S /.3'M. * /+8 S8KP+D 5.2 +MM+@5*8+'=" 8he
moment KS !ets its act to!ether& virtually *CC talent in +n%ia #ill leave" 8he Eest has
not choice but to create an 'P.= *5MS P'C+3L for talent"
O*nan% an% Shikha 3hhatpar& they starte% a company calle% 4ame .Apress that #as
buil%in! really cool 4acebook apps" 8hey si!ne% up a million users in almost no time&
buil%in! lots of revenue" *nnan an% Shikha pai% a 0uarter of a million %ollars in taAes
#hile they #ere here" 8hey ha% to !o back to +n%ia to !et their visa a%juste% to start
the process of permanent resi%ency& an% the K"S" !overnment #oul%nNt let them
back& %espite the fact that they #ere hirin! *mericans& they #ere %oin! #ell& they
#ere here le!ally" *nnan ha% file% ei!ht patents& so the !uy #as eAceptional" =o one
#as %isa!reein! that heNs a #orthy can%i%ate" /ut even the hea% of the immi!ration
%epartment coul%nNt fiA this" So no# theyNre livin! in +n%ia& payin! +n%ian taAes&
employin! +n%ian #orkers" +tNs a bi! loss for *merica" 8his is the stupi%ity of our
immi!ration systemO (Source)
/e#are of the %ay #hen KS* #akes up an% implements this policy by 7ivek
Ea%h#a2 O+f #e ha% a startup visa #hich allo#e% any forei!ner to start a company
here& if after three or four years the company is employin! less than five *mericans&
that person is ineli!ible for a !reen car%" 8hat #oul% lea% to tens of thousan%s of ne#
startups& possibly hun%re%s of thousan%s of startups& #hich #oul% !enerate
hun%re%s of thousan%s& maybe millions of jobs \ all for a cost of Iero"O (Source)
5.....' Robotics research in &ndia
.1yantra& a !roup of stu%ents at ++8 /ombay GMumbaiH& t#eete% in response to my
previous article& an% a!ree% #ith my %ia!nosis that &ndians can expect to be
replaced by robots if they %onNt rush in to upskill" 5+@H8 ='E"
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com >?
>" .conomics of eAtreme lon!evity Geven some
form of immortalityH
*s part of my rea%in!s on robotics& +Nve become persua%e% that re!ar%less of
#hether machines can become !enuinely human1like Gthat #oul% %epen% lar!ely on
pro!ress in *+& since har%#are #ill %efinitely permit such capacityH& man "illplace%
break throu!h the atomic levels of biolo!y"
O*!in! isnNt the irreversible affliction that #e thou!ht it #asO (Source)
Extreme longevity is 'AA per cent certain in the near futureH even if immortality is
still in 0uestion" Ee canNt rule out immortality& thou!h" +ts probability is !reater than
Iero" So #e shoul% at least start thinkin! alou% about it"
+n the eAtreme case& immortality #ill colli%e #ith infinite abun%ance Q lea%in! to
rather stran!e outcomes" Some vi%eos first2
*n% hereNs a report on JurI#eilNs recent talk" *n% this2 5ay JurI#eil$s 3ase for
+mmortality"
O+Nm ri!ht on the cusp&O he a%%s" O+ think some of us #ill make it throu!hO Q he means
baby boomers& #ho can hope to eAperience practical immortality if they han! on
for another 15 years"
*n% a 8.DA 7ienna talk2 http2::###"te%Avienna"at:blo!:!oal1immortality:" *n%
hereNs 3hina Daily sprea%in! this i%ea across 3hina"
*ll si!ns are no# 7.5L S85'=@ that %isease #ill come fully un%er
human control" 4or instance2 human1en!ineere% bacteria are no# able to hunts
%o#n patho!ens"
.conomists nee% to start thinkin! about this issue"
>"1 Pensions
* basic 0uestion #oul% be& for instance& about ol%1a!e pension schemes"
+Nm fun%amentally oppose% to all pension schemes" +nstea%& + believe a social
minimum is the #ay to !o" 5e!ar%less of the cause& if you have fallen belo# a
poverty level& the !overnment shoul% top up Gnot %ouble countH till you are able to
Gfru!allyH survive" Ehy shoul% anyone be responsible for payin! you a pension;
*ll over the Eest& ol%1a!e pension schemes are no# in place" *s lon!evity
increases %ramatically& these schemes #ill come un%er massive pressure& an% #ill
ultimately nee% to be abolishe% Q as they shoul%"
?A
>"2 4urther rea%in! on the biolo!y:economics of immortality
+Nm !oin! to start rea%in!:revie#in! the literature on this issue& time permittin!" +f
youNve !ot any peer revie#e% references& please let me kno#"
* 0uick search across the internet le% to the follo#in! links2
* facebook !roup #here people share %ata on lon!evity stu%ies"
8he .conomics of +mmortality2 3onference hoste% by the .uropean 3ommission&
/ruAelles& D 'ctober 200F
.conomics of immortality;
.conomics of lon!evity"
8he .conomics of +mmortality Gcontains a vi%eo talkH
Ho# %o 3han!es in Human Con!evity +mpact on our Demo!raphy;
Eoul% +mmortality /ecome *n 'verpopulation =i!htmare;
+mmortality an% Society
8he Social /ur%en of Con!er Cives
Some Practical Problems of +mmortality
+mmortality #ithin 60 Lears
+mmortality is a ba% i%ea G?oichi +toH
8he ethics of a!ein!& immortality an% !enetics by Daniela 3utas
8he .conomic an% Social /enefits of O+mmortalityO
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B" Shoul% #e be concerne%; Shoul% the
!overnment %o anythin!;
8here is seemin!ly a O!ro#in! mismatch bet#een rapi%ly a%vancin! %i!ital
technolo!ies an% slo#1chan!in! humans"O
/ut after consi%erable analysis an% thou!ht +$ve come to the vie# that this is not a
matter of concern" 8here is a ne# e0uilibrium ahea% for mankin%"
B"1 * ne# e0uilibrium #ill soon emer!e
8here is no reason to panic"
,unemployment in the Jenne%y an% early ?ohnson years remaine% stubbornly hi!h&
reachin! B percent at one point" *utomation& seen loiterin! in the vicinity of the
in%ustrial crime& appeare% a likely culprit"- 8o take one eAample2 Cife ma!aIine
publishe% a picture in 1F>6 of a ne# automate% machine tool calle% Mil#aukee1Matic
that coul% replace 1D #orkers"
+t #as feare% that this #as the ne# norm" 5obert Heilbroner& a #ell1kno#n economist
#ho #rote a #i%ely rea% book on economic history G,8he Eorl%ly Philosophers2 8he
Cives& 8imes& an% +%eas of the @reat .conomic 8hinkers-H #arne%2 ,*s machines
continue to inva%e society " " " it is human labor itself \ at least& as #e no# think of
9labor$ \ that is !ra%ually ren%ere% re%un%ant"-
So concerne% #as Presi%ent ?ohnson that in 1F>4 he appointe% a =ational
3ommission on 8echnolo!y& *utomation an% .conomic Pro!ress" (Source)
8he economy is alrea%y a%justin!& as people #ith !reater buyin! po#er G+81%riven
in%ustriesH are startin! to pay personal trainers an% artists for a better 0uality of life"
3reative& fitness an% spiritual in%ustries are !oin! to be the boom in%ustries of the
future"
B"2 Some !oo% policies
=...' Greater competition and regulatory reform
Ee #oul% nee% even more competition an% re!ulatory reform& to make it easier for
businesses to establish an% operate"
=.... Attract innovatorsCtalent from across the "orld
5obotics:+8 is %riven by top science an% maths talent& so it #ill be crucial to attract
the best talent from across the #orl% Gpossibly throu!h mi!rationH"
=.....' The exodus of talent from 2ilicon alley
+n a stu%y ,8hen an% =o#2 *merica$s =e# +mmi!rant .ntrepreneurs& Part 7++ 7ivek
Ea%h#a sho#s that ,the number of immi!rant entrepreneurs in the Knite% States
has fallen sli!htly" /ut accor%in! to 7ivek Ea%h#a& an author of the stu%y& the %rop
is especially steep in Silicon 7alley& lon! a ma!net for the bri!htest an% most
ambitious min%s from aroun% the #orl%" 4rom 1FF5 to 2005& immi!rants foun%e% 52
percent of the startups in Silicon 7alley" 8he up%ate% research sho#s that since
2005& that %roppe% to 44 percent"- (Source)
?.
+n this vi%eo& Michio Jaku sho#s ho# KS has !ro#n off the brainpo#er of top
technical PhDs from +n%ian an% 3hina& etc" *mericaNs secret #eapon is H1/"
*n% here is +n%ian 7ivek Ea%h#a stron!ly promotin! that KS* attract +n%iaNs top
talent2
0Anand and &hikha 6hhatpar, they started a company called Fame ;<press that
!as bilding really cool Facebook apps. They signed p a million sers in almost
no time, bilding lots of revene. Annan and &hikha paid a Aarter of a million
dollars in ta<es !hile they !ere here. They had to go back to ?ndia to get their
visa ad9sted to start the process of permanent residency, and the B.&.
government !oldnCt let them back, despite the fact that they !ere hiring
Americans, they !ere doing !ell, they !ere here legally. Annan had filed eight
patents, so the gy !as e<ceptional. $o one !as disagreeing that heCs a !orthy
candidate. =t even the head of the immigration department coldnCt fi< this. &o
no! theyCre living in ?ndia, paying ?ndian ta<es, employing ?ndian !orkers. ?tCs a
big loss for America. This is the stpidity of or immigration system0 .&orce/
*n% here is /ill @ates promotin! mi!ration of technically skille% people into KS*"
8he KS* has no option but to !o full throttle on attractin! the #orl%Ns best talent if it
has to succee% in this 5obotic *!e"
=.....' Need for talent*friendly policies
=.../ &f you do need to spend on innovationH spend on
roboticsCA&Cnanotechnology
+f fun%s must be spen% on innovation policy Gi%eally this shoul% be left to the marketH
then some co1fun%in! of !oo% robotics ventures may be sensible on case by case
basis"
=...0 Retraining
5etrainin! is !enerally a ba% i%ea& but in some cases it mi!ht #ork"
8he i%ea that if #e coul% simply re1train everyone& the problem #oul% be solve% is
simply not cre%ible" +f you %oubt that& ask any of the thousan%s of #orkers #ho have
complete% trainin! pro!rams& but still canNt fin% #ork" (Source)
B"6 /a% policies
=./.' 8rogressive taxation
8his is a common 9solution$ to ine0uality" .Acessively pro!ressive taAation can&
ho#ever& cause capital to flee"
=./.. Redistribution
=./...' Citi:en<s income
http2::###"ne#statesman"com:economics:2016:0>:basic1income1versus1robots
* more %isastrous i%ea than this #as never ima!ine%"
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D" 5eferences
D"1 Jey blo!s on robotics
.verythin! robotic
D"2 .conomics of a robotic economy
*rtificial +ntelli!ence 1 .conomics an% ?ob Market +mpact
Drum& Jevin" Eelcome& 5obot 'verlor%s" Please DonNt 4ire Ks; Smart machines
probably #onNt kill us all\but theyNll %efinitely take our jobs& an% sooner than you
think"
Hanson& 5obin" .conomic @ro#th @iven Machine +ntelli!ence"
Hanson& 5obin" .conomics of 8he Sin!ularity
=ilsson& =" ?" G1FD5H" *rtificial intelli!ence& employment& an% income" Human
Systems Mana!ement& 5& 126Q125"
=ilsson& ="& 3ook& S"& Jay& *"& Duchin& 4"& /o%en& M"& T 3hamot& D" G1FD6H" *rtificial
intelli!ence2 its impacts on human occupations an% %istribution of income" +n
Procee%in!s Dth +nternational ?oint 3onference on *rtificial +ntelli!ence Jarlsruhe&
Eest @ermany" Eilliam Jaufmann"
Coukas Jarabarbounis an% /rent =eiman& 8he @lobal Decline of the Cabor Share&
?une 2016
Shoul% #e fear the en% of #ork;
Smith& Jarl" +ne0uality +n 8he 5obot 4uture
Ehat the robotic a!e means for K"S" manufacturin!
Matthe# L!lesias& Eho @ets 5ich Ehen 5obots 8ake 'ur ?obs
Davi% H" *utor& 4rank Cevy an% 5ichar% ?" Murnane2 ,8he Skill 3ontent of 5ecent
8echnolo!ical 3han!e2 *n .mpirical .Aploration&- publishe% in The Darterly
Eornal of ;conomics in =ovember 2006
Davi% 4" =oble& Forces of 'rodction7 A &ocial @istory of ?ndstrial Atomation"
Cean%ro Pra%os %e la .scosura an% ?oan 5" 5oscs& E*@.S *=D C*/'5 +=3'M.
+= H+S8'5L2 * SK57.L
?ason /orenstein in *+ T S'3+.8L G2011H& 5obots an% the chan!in! #orkforce
?ournal
*+ T S'3+.8L
D"6 Science of robotics
*n%erson SC G200DH *simov$s 99three la#s of robotics$$ an% machine metaethics" *+ T
Soc 2224BBQ4F6
/ankhea% 3 G200FH S@'2 robotic hysterectomy sho#s a%vanta!es over open
sur!ery" Me%Pa!e 8o%ay" http2::###"me%pa!eto%ay"
com:Meetin!3overa!e:S@':12BD4" *ccesse% 1D 4eb 200F
?0
/anks M5& Eillou!hby CM& /anks E* G200DH *nimal1*ssiste% therapy an%
loneliness in nursin! homes2 use of robotic versus livin! %o!s" ? *m Me% Dir *ssoc
FG6H21B6Q1BB
/erry ?= +++ G200>H Humans %o a better job" Cibr ? 161210
3larke 5 G1FF6H *simov$s la#s of robotics2 implications for information technolo!y\
part +" 3omputer 2>G12H256Q>1
3larke 5 G1FF4H *simov$s la#s of robotics2 implications for information technolo!y1
part ++" 3omputer 2BG1H25BQ>>
Demetriou D G200FH 5obot teacher con%ucts first class in 8okyo school"
4aucounau 7& Eu LH& /oulay M& Maestrutti M& 5i!au% *S G200FH 3are!ivers$
re0uirements for in1home robotic a!ent for supportin! community1livin! el%erly
subjects #ith co!nitive impairment" 8echnol Health 3are 1BG1H266Q40
Hayes / G200FH *utomation on the job" *m Sci FBG1H210
+acono S& Jlin! 5 G1FFDH 3omputeriIation movements2 the rise of the internet an%
%istant forms of #ork" +n2 Lates ?& 7an Maanen ? Ge%sH +nformation technolo!y an%
or!aniIational transformation2 history& rhetoric& an% practice" Sa!e Publications&
8housan% 'aks& 3*& pp F6Q16> Gpart of an antholo!y from 2001H
Jane 8 G200>H 8he 8errifyin! liberation of labor" =otre Dame ? Ca# .thics Public
Policy 202D15QD66
Jleiner J G200DH /ottle1brush robot !oes #here 9pi!s$ can$t reach" =e#Scientist"
JurI#eil 5 G1FF0H 8he a!e of intelli!ent machines& 3hapter 4ive2 mechanical roots"
JurI#eil 5 G2000H 8he a!e of spiritual machines2 #hen computers eAcee% human
intelli!ence" Pen!uin /ooks& KS*"
Cin P& /ekey @& *bney J G200DH *utonomous military robotics2 risk& ethics& an%
%esi!n" .thics T .mer!in! 8echnolo!ies @roup at 3alifornia State Polytechnic
Kniversity
Cuo M G200FH ?ob retrainin! may fall short of hi!h hopes" 8he =e# Lork 8imes
Cynn CH G2002H .n!ineers an% en!ineerin! in the KS an% ?apan2 a critical revie# of
the literature an% su!!estions for a ne# research a!en%a" +... 8rans .n! Mana!e
4FG1H2F5Q10>
MacDorman J4& 7asu%evan SJ& Ho 313 G200FH Does ?apan really have robot
mania; 3omparin! attitu%es by implicit an% eAplicit measures" *+ T Soc 2624D5Q510
=a!enbor! M& 3apurro 5& Eeber ?& Pin!el 3 G200DH .thical re!ulations on robotics
in .urope" *+ T Soc 22264FQ6>>
=omura 8 G200FH Soft#are a!ents an% robots in mental therapy2 psycholo!ical an%
sociolo!ical perspectives" *+ T Soc 2624B1Q
=orman D* G200BH 8he %esi!n of future thin!s" /asic /ooks& =e# Lork
=ye D. G2004H 8echnolo!ical pre%iction2 a promethean problem" +n2 8echnolo!ical
visions2 the hopes an% fears that shape ne# technolo!ies" 8emple Kniversity Press&
Phila%elphia& pp 15FQ1B>
Pilotless police %rone takes off G200BH //3 =e#s" http2::ne#s"bbc"
co"uk:!o:pr:fr:1:2:hi:ukSne#s:en!lan%:merseysi%e:>>B>D0F"stm" *ccesse% 2D ?uly
200F
Poll2 *%ults prefer face time to 4acebook G200FH KP+"com" http2::
###"upi"com:ScienceS=e#s:200F:0D:06:Poll1*%ults1preferface1time1to1
4acebook:KP+11262124F622F1D:" *ccesse% 4 *u! 200F
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ?5
Pullin ? G200>H *utomation saves jobs" Professional .n!ineerin!& p 6F
5obertson = G200FH Ho# robot %rones revolutioniIe% the face of #arfare"
http2::###"cnn"com:200F:E'5CD:americas:0B:26:#us"
#arfare"remote"uav:in%eA"html" *ccesse% 24 ?uly 200F
5obotic Percussionist" http2::###"!atech"e%u:research:robotic%rummer" html"
*ccesse% D May 200F
5obots seen %oin! #ork of 6"5 million in ?apan G200DH 5euters"com"
http2::###"reuters"com:article:o%%ly.nou!h=e#s:i%KS82B50> 2200D040D"
*ccesse% 24 ?an 200F
Scassellati / G200BH Ho# social robots #ill help us to %ia!nose& treat& an%
un%erstan% autism" +n2 8hrun S& /rooks 5& Durrant1Ehyte H Ge%sH 5obotics research"
Sprin!er& =e# Lork& pp 552Q5>6
Sin!er PE G200FH Eire% for Ear" Pen!uin Press& =e# Lork
Sla%e @ G200BH Ma%e to break2 technolo!y an% obsolescence in *merica" Harvar%
Kniversity Press& 3ambri%!e
Smith D G200FH Does /aseball$s future lie in these col%& robotic han%s; Popsci"com"
http2::###"popsci"com:scitech:article:200F0B:%oes1baseballs1future1lie1their1col%1
robotic1han%s" *ccesse% 60 ?uly 200F
Sparro# 5& Sparro# C G200>H +n the han%s of machines; 8he future of a!e% care"
Min% Mach 1>2141Q1>1
Spencer 5 G2004H *ssembly robots help K"S" companies stay competitive& retain
jobs" 5obotics Eorl% 22210& 12Q16
8abuchi H G200FH +n ?apan& machines for #ork an% play are i%le" 8he =e# Lork
8imes" http2::###"nytimes"com:200F:0B:16: technolo!y:16robot"html" *ccesse% 60
?uly 200F
8enner . G1FF>H 8he 3omputeriIe% 'f"ce2 pro%uctivity puIIles" +n2 JatI .& Ci!ht *&
8hompson E Ge%sH 3ontrollin! 8echnolo!y2 contemporary issues& 2n% e%n"
Prometheus /ooks& *mherst& =L& pp 4>BQ4D5 Gpart of an antholo!y from 2006H
8he *utomation ?obless G1F>1H 8ime Ma!aIine
KS *ir 4orce G200FH Knite% States *ir 4orce Knmanne% *ircraft Systems 4li!ht Plan
200FQ204B" http2::###"!oveAec"com:p%fs: 0B260Fkp1"p%f" *ccesse% 1 Sept 200F
KS Department of Defense G200FH Knmanne% Systems +nte!rate% 5oa%map 200FQ
2064" http2::###"ac0"os%"mil:uas:%ocs: KMS+nte!rate%5oa%map200F"p%f" *ccesse%
1B ?uly 200F
Eallach E& *llen 3 G200FH Moral machines2 teachin! robots ri!ht from #ron!" 'Afor%
Kniversity Press& +nc"& =e# Lork
Einner C G1FD0H Do artifacts have politics" +n2 8eich *H Ge%H 8echnolo!y an% the
future& Fth e%n" Ea%s#orth& =e# Lork& 2006& pp 14DQ1>4
/rynjolfsson& .rik an% *n%re# Mc*fee& 5ace *!ainst 8he Machine2 Ho# the Di!ital
5evolution is *cceleratin! +nnovation& Drivin! Pro%uctivity& an% +rreversibly
8ransformin! .mployment an% the .conomy"
/orenstein& ?ason& 5obots an% the chan!in! #orkforce & *+ T Soc G2011H 2>2DBQF6
7e%akkapet& Prahla%& 8he 5obotic *!e
JurI#eil& 5ay G2005H" 8he Sin!ularity +s =ear2 Ehen Humans 8ranscen% /iolo!y"
Moravec& H" G1FFDH" Ehen #ill computer har%#are match the human brain; ?ournal
of 8ranshumanism" http2::###"transhumanist"com"
?9
/rynjolfsson& .rik an% *%am Saun%ers" Eire% for +nnovation2Ho# +nformation
8echnolo!y is 5eshapin! the .conomy
* 5oa%map for KS 5obotics 4rom +nternet to 5obotics G200FH
@erhar%us D"& 5obot1assiste% sur!ery2 the future is here& ? Healthc Mana!" 2006 ?ul1
*u!P4DG4H2242151"
.%mun%as JaIimieras [ava%skas& *utomation an% robotics in construction2
+nternational research an% achievements"
Paula @omes G2011H& Sur!ical robotics2 5evie#in! the past& analysin! the present&
ima!inin! the future 5obotics an% 3omputer1+nte!rate% Manufacturin!& 7olume 2B&
+ssue 2& *pril 2011& Pa!es 2>1Q2>>"
D"4 .thics of robotics
*rkin 53 G200BH @overnin! lethal behavior2 embe%%in! ethics in a hybri%
%eliberative:reactive robot architecture& @7K 8echnical 5eport @+81@7K10B111& pp
1Q11B
/rin!sjor% S G200DH .thical robots2 the future can hee% us" *+ T Soc 22256FQ550
Decker M G200DH 3are!ivin! robots an% ethical reflection2 the perspective of
inter%isciplinary technolo!y assessment" *+ T Soc 222615Q660
Harris 3. G200DH 8he @oo% .n!ineer2 !ivin! virtue its %ue in en!ineerin! ethics" Sci
.n! .thics 14G2H2156Q1>4
Michael =a!enbor!& 5afael 3apurro& ?utta Eeber& 3hristoph Pin!el G200DH" .thical
re!ulations on robotics in .urope& *+ T S'3+.8L G200DH
http2::###"voane#s"com:content:robotic1a!e1%ra#s1closer1
106>6BB0F:12>51F"html
http2::0I"com:FD42B:in1japan1robots1coul%1be1mans1neAt1best1frien%:d
Fey isses
'bject an% facial reco!nition
3omputers %o better than humans
*+2 Jey barrier is human emotions" *n% #e can$t mass pro%uce min%s"
+nter1operability
Synthetic biolo!y Gconvertin! biolo!ical throu!h @M to make them %o thin!s they
#ere not %esi!ne% forH
Deep learnin!
Sparse co%in!
Home robots Q people are #illin! to spen% more than for a car Gif it #ere usefulH"
3ybor! Gcybernetic or!anismH
Artificial materials Ee.g. metamaterialsF including invisibility cloa(
SpaceA
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4ollo#in! ima!es from2 http2::###"technolo!yrevie#"com:feature%story:515F2>:ho#1
technolo!y1is1%estroyin!1jobs:
?>
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Happy to receive input at sabhlok!mail"com ??
COMP!"# $I%&"# M'("$ )*20 million. +'nd yes, she dances in -. throu/h modern projection
technolo/ies.0
1atsune Mi2u is a computer pro/ram +3amaha4s 5ocaloid 2 voice synthesiser0. 3ou can ma2e her sin/
anythin/ you li2e. $he has made )$*20 million for CFM from 60,000 sales plus licensin/.
http2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vRp.a/0iCe3u0
Some#hat craIy2 https2::###"youtube"com:#atch;vR=v.4KhJm.f#
'AA

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