SMURT CSE WorkshopProceedings Standard

ISBN: 978 0 643 09603 5
Simulation and Modelling of Urban and

Regional Transitions (SMURT):
Proceedings of a CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
Workshop, Melbourne, December 4-6, 2007

Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming Wang
J une 2008
Enquiries should be addressed to:

Dr. Xiaoming Wang Dr. Kostas Alexandridis
Principal Research Scientist Regional Futures Analyst
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
Highett Laboratory Davies Laboratory, University Drive
Highett, VIC Douglas, QLD 4814, Australia
Phone: +61 3 9252 6328 Phone: +61 7 4753 8630
Fax: +61 3 9252 6249 Fax: +61 7 4753 8650
Email: Xiaoming.Wang@csiro.au Email: Kostas.Alexandridis@csiro.au

ISBN: 978 0 643 09603 5

Copyright and Disclaimer
2008 CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems: Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming Wang. To the extent
permitted by law, all rights are reserved and no part of this publication covered by copyright may be
reproduced or copied in any form or by any means except with the written permission of CSIRO.

Important Disclaimer
CSIRO advises that the information contained in this publication comprises general statements based
on scientific research. The reader is advised and needs to be aware that such information may be
incomplete or unable to be used in any specific situation. No reliance or actions must therefore be
made on that information without seeking prior expert professional, scientific and technical advice. To
the extent permitted by law, CSIRO (including its employees and consultants) excludes all liability to
any person for any consequences, including but not limited to all losses, damages, costs, expenses and
any other compensation, arising directly or indirectly from using this publication (in part or in whole)
and any information or material contained in it.
i
Table of Contents
Preface .......................................................................................................................... 1
1. Pre-Workshop semantic analysis ...................................................................... 3
1.1 Questions and Responses ........................................................................................ 3
1.2 Semantic Analysis results ......................................................................................... 3
1.2.1 Semantic Mapping ................................................................................................ 3
1.2.2 Semantic Statistics ................................................................................................ 8
2. Workshop Program and Participants .............................................................. 13
2.1 Workshop Program ................................................................................................. 13
2.1.1 Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 - Welcome .......................................................... 13
2.1.2 Wednesday, December 5th, 2007 ....................................................................... 13
2.1.3 Thursday, December 6th, 2007 ........................................................................... 15
2.2 Workshop Participants ............................................................................................ 16
2.2.1 Keynote Speakers ............................................................................................... 16
2.2.2 Participants ......................................................................................................... 18
2.3 Workshop Committee ............................................................................................. 18
2.3.1 Advisory Committee ............................................................................................ 18
2.3.2 Organizing Committee ........................................................................................ 19
3. Workshop Presentations .................................................................................. 20
3.1 The Challenge of Coastal Growth Alan Stokes (Keynote speech) ...................... 20
3.2 CSE Urban Science: Challenges and Opportunities Allen Kearns ...................... 20
3.3 SMURT Goals and Challenges Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming Wang ......... 20
3.4 Fundamentals of Urban and Regional Dynamics Prof. Peter Newman (keynote speech)
................................................................................................................................ 21
3.5 Modelling and Simulation Techniques to Support Understanding of Sustainable Socio-
Technical Systems Prof. Peter Campbell (keynote speech) ............................... 21
3.6 Developing a Science Plan for Transitioning Cities Research Stream Xuemei Bai21
3.7 Overview of the Sustainable Communities Initiative Sean Rooney ..................... 22
3.8 A Review of Modelling in Urban and Regional Transitions Xiaoming Wang and Kostas
Alexandridis ............................................................................................................. 22
3.9 Impact Analysis: Modelling Capacities and Experience in CSE Scott Heckbert . 22
3.10 Using Diverse Modelling Methods to Forecast Land Use Change in the United States,
Eastern Europe, and East Africa: Current Trends and Sustainability Perspectives Prof.
Bryan C. Pijanowski (keynote speech) ................................................................... 22
3.11 GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist Urban and Regional Planning and
Management Chris Pettit (keynote speech) ......................................................... 23
3.12 Facilitating Emergence? Developing resources to map existing systems, model and
create future systems, and accelerate necessary transitions Neil Davidson et al.23
3.13 A Framework for Assessing Increased Patterns of Landscape Ecological Homogenization
and Social Heterogeneity in Agricultural Landscapes Undergoing Transition to Peri-Urban
Landscapes Neil MacLeod ................................................................................... 24
3.14 Agricultural Chain Resilience under Urbanizing Pressures Ainsley Archer ......... 24
3.15 Urbanizing Landscapes in Northern Queensland Cameron Fletcher .................. 25
3.16 NEMSIM as a Long Term Agent-based Simulation and Scenario Exploration Tool for
Electricity Market Development George Grozev .................................................. 25
3.17 Life Cycle Assessment of the Built Environment Selwyn Tucker ........................ 25
3.18 Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings Zhenggen Ren .................... 26
3.19 Report from the First Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems Workshop Tim Baynes 26
ii

3.20 Simulating the Behaviour of Adaptive Agents David Batten ................................ 26
3.21 Vulnerability of Urban Water Services in Pacific Island Countries Magnus Moglia26
3.22 Modelling the Uptake and Impact of Distributed Energy Simon Dunstall ............ 27
3.23 Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities Freeman Cook ................................ 27
4. Workshop exercises and interactions ............................................................ 27
4.1 Fishbowl Discussion ............................................................................................... 27
4.1.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 27
4.1.2 Fishbowl discussion results ................................................................................. 28
4.1.3 Fishbowl discussion highlights ............................................................................ 33
4.2 Group Scribble storming A: Better models, research pathways to impact. ............ 34
4.2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 34
4.2.2 Group 1 ............................................................................................................... 34
4.2.3 Group 2 ............................................................................................................... 35
4.2.4 Group 3 ............................................................................................................... 36
4.2.5 Group 4 ............................................................................................................... 36
4.3 Group scribble-storming B: Domain representation ................................................ 39
4.3.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 39
4.3.2 Domain: Climate Change .................................................................................... 39
4.3.3 Domain: Interfacing / Integration / Interoperability of Models .............................. 40
4.3.4 Domain: Beliefs, Attitudes and Behaviour ........................................................... 40
4.3.5 Domain: Mobility, Demand Responsive .............................................................. 41
4.3.6 Domain: Innovation Diffusion Through Institutions .............................................. 42
4.3.7 Domain: Urban Energy Usage / Demand ............................................................ 43
4.3.8 Domain: Rurban Systems Design ....................................................................... 44
4.3.9 Domain: Water and Gas Transport in Landscapes ............................................. 44
4.4 Crucial Questions .................................................................................................... 45
4.4.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 45
4.4.2 Specific questions ............................................................................................... 45
4.4.3 Provocative Propositions ..................................................................................... 46
4.5 Graphical Linkages ................................................................................................. 46
4.5.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 46
4.5.2 Social Network Analysis ...................................................................................... 47
References .................................................................................................................. 56
Appendix Workshop Presentations ....................................................................... 57

iii

List of Figures

Figure 1: A balanced semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions (group theme
size:50%). ......................................................................................................................................... 4
Figure 2: A narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme sizes are
set to 25% of theme concepts. ......................................................................................................... 5
Figure 3: A relatively narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme
size is set to 33%). ........................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 4: A relative broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme
size is set to 75%. ............................................................................................................................ 7
Figure 5: A very broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size is
set to 99%. ....................................................................................................................................... 8
Figure 6: J oint probabilities of semantic attributes versus classification categories in SMURT workshop
questions. ....................................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 7: Specific variable and classification group probabilities for semantic analysis of the SMURT
workshop questions. ....................................................................................................................... 12
Figure 8: The SMURT workshop participants during a working dinner. ................................................ 13
Figure 9: A graphical representation of the fishbowl exercise design (upper part) and process (lower
part). The implementation of the fishbowl exercise for the SMURT workshop included two
interactive sessions from each of the inner and outer fishbowl circles. ......................................... 28
Figure 10: The process for developing better models (scribble-storming, group 2).............................. 36
Figure 11: A modeling system representation for mobility demand responsive (traffic model). ........... 42
Figure 12: The SMURT social network drawn by the workshops participants. .................................... 47
Figure 13: The SMURT participant social network graph-theoretic representation. The line colors
represent different types of connections (Gray =General, Red =Methodology, Blue =Design,
Orange =Society, Green =Environment, Magenta =Engagement). ............................................ 49
Figure 14: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the General category of
interactions. .................................................................................................................................... 50
Figure 15: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Methodological
(modelling, simulation, particular tools and theories) category of interactions. ............................. 51
Figure 16: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Design (engineering,
transportation, etc) category of interactions. .................................................................................. 52
Figure 17: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Society (social,
economic, cognitive, etc) category of interactions. ........................................................................ 53
Figure 18: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Environment (climate
change, environmental modelling, sustainability, etc) category of interactions. ............................ 54
Figure 19: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Engagement (visioning,
stakeholder engagement, empowerment, communication, etc) category of interactions. ............. 55

iv
List of Tables

Table 1: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 1 and 2. .................................................................. 9
Table 2: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 3 and 4. ................................................................ 10
Table 3: A matrix representation of multiple factors informing better models (scribble storming, group
4). ................................................................................................................................................... 37
Table 4: A matrix representation of multiple factors affecting the ability to perform better research
(scribble storming, group 4). .......................................................................................................... 37
Table 5: Examples of pathways to impact (scribble storming, group 4). ............................................... 38
Table 6: A classification look-up table for the categorical assignment of connections among participant
nodes. ............................................................................................................................................. 48
Table 7: Key social network metrics for the SMURT participant representation. .................................. 49
PREFACE
SMURT Workshop Proceedings, Melbourne 4-6 December 2007 J une 2008 1
PREFACE
Within a highly complex and inter-connected world, enhancing simulation and visually displaying our
problems is an essential part of the ways for us to understand, respond and adapt to the dramatic
changes around us. Transitions in the structure and configuration of our urban and regional landscapes
are directly and indirectly interwoven with changes in the structure and character of our social
functions and groups. Simulation can inform management and policy makers, through successful and
interactive dialogue and communication, setting priorities with a clear understanding of the problems
that the society is facing in the future as well as assessing possible impacts of key decisions and the
severity of the problems to the society as a whole at all scales (local, regional, state and national).
Urban and regional transition is a human-driven process; unless we clearly understand the degree and
magnitude of transitions social significance, we cannot achieve levels of policy and management
responses that would enhance the social, economic, institutional and cognitive capacity of societies to
respond and adapt to the transitions. Simulation and modelling may provide an alternative pathway to
the answers.
Since the late 1960s and early 1970s, a good deal of research has been carried out on the analysis of
regional and urban systems in an effort to shed more light on their temporally dynamic and spatially
interactive behaviour, across multi-disciplinary domains. Recently, progress has been made showing
the tremendous potential of regional and urban analysis which could be unlocked through complex
science and interdisciplinary collaboration including economics, sociology, anthropology, geography,
social psychology, system dynamics, complexity theory and engineering, etc. Advances in computing
science have made the simulation of regional and urban transition more practical, providing powerful
tools to unearth more subtle emerging characteristics in the transition process.
This analysis has developed from the single market centre-based location theory, developed by von
Thunen toward a search for land uses to maximise profits, to input - output models as well as stocks
and flows models popular in the 1960s and 70s. These methodologies attempted to explain the
interactions in urban dynamics and created significant interest in regional and urban planning
communities, but also attracted criticisms in the past as a result of their reliance on aggregated inputs
and consequently difficulty in describing the complexities of urban dynamics in more subtle geo-
scales. Progress in computing, particularly in Geographic Information System (GIS), created a
platform for modern regional and urban simulation, largely based on cellular automata and agent-
based simulation in combination with traditional regional modelling. More importantly, emerging
behaviours of urban systems are able to be examined at this scale, as a result of the social behaviour of
human beings and their interaction with environments (social, political, economic, ecological and
technological). More recent advances in geographic information science and land use science
indicated a further paradigm shift in our understanding, practice and application of science in
this rapidly emerging multi- and cross-disciplinary research.
However, we are still facing considerable challenges that may include:
Full integration of interdisciplinary approaches for the simulation of regional and urban
transition;
Determination of emerging behaviours of regional and urban systems, interconnected in
physical, temporal and spatial domains;
PREFACE
2 SMURT Workshop Proceedings, Melbourne 4-6 December 2007 J une 2008
Application of regional and urban transition simulations in relation to real scenarios based on
existing knowledge and information;
Validation of the accuracy of the simulations, providing a reliable prediction of regional and
urban transitions.

It becomes critical to develop a practical approach, but also maintain the accuracy in the simulation of
complex regional and urban dynamics, in order to identify the vulnerability of our regional and urban
systems, and to help develop more effective policies to secure their sustainability.

Facing the challenges, the workshop of simulation and modelling of urban and regional transition
(SMURT) aims to achieve an understanding of existing regional and urban models and their analysis
techniques, and identify pathways or roadmaps to apply the simulation to regional and urban policy
development, planning and management in the real world.
The Proceedings summarises the workshop, including semantic analysis of the participants responses
to four questions of SMURT in chapter one, introduction of workshop program and participants in
chapter two, abstracts of workshop presentation in chapter three, and results of workshop exercises
and interactions in chapter four. All presentation details are provided in appendix A. Presentations by
keynote speakers, on the subjects of the challenge of coastal growth, fundamentals of urban and
regional dynamics, modelling and simulation techniques to support understanding of sustainable
socio-technological systems, using diverse modelling methods to forecast land use change, and GIS-
based modelling and visualisation tools to assist urban and regional planning and management,
highlights research needs, critical issues, and approaches in urban and regional sustainable planning
and development. They were all further addressed by other presentations. We hope the information
provided by the proceedings may become a useful source for the research in SMURT.
Kostas Alexandridis and Xiaoming Wang
J une 2008
PRE-WORKSHOP SEMANTIC ANALYSIS

1. PRE-WORKSHOP SEMANTIC ANALYSIS
1.1 Questions and Responses
Before the workshop, the perspective participants were asked to submit their responses to four
important questions regarding simulation and modelling of urban and regional sustainability
transitions. Specifically, the questions were:
1. What do you see as the main challenges for urban/regional sustainability research?
2. What would be appropriate scientific concepts and methodologies to address these challenges?
3. What tools you would be looking for in simulation and modelling of urban and regional
transitions?
4. How can we ensure to address the needs of the key stakeholders and to effectively improve
decision and policy-making processes?
The questions were designed to address a number of workshop goals:
o Inform further design and facilitate discussions during the workshop.
o Introduce participants to the goals and focus of the workshop.
o Allow for building of collective and common understanding of challenges, methodologies,
tools and communication aspects of the SMURT goals.
o Evaluate the capacity and composition of the workshop participants.
The responses received from each participant were used to conduct an ontological semantic concept
analysis (Mika, 2007; Shamsfard and Barforoush, 2004). The analysis conducted using the
Leximancer software model (Leximancer, 2007), a Bayesian unsupervised classifier (see also Freeman
and Yin, 2004) of natural lexicographic textual content. The results are shown below.
1.2 Semantic Analysis results
1.2.1 Semantic Mapping
The semantic classification analysis revealed a number of concepts contained in the responses to the
workshop questions by the participants. Classification theme boundaries can vary. Classification
themes convey the broader circle of influence of the joint distribution of variables or drivers based on
the mapping of their respective semantic distances. A balanced classification theme threshold of 50%,
is shown in Figure 1. It contains five major theme categories, namely emphasis on systems, models,
development, sustainability and policy. Each of these themes contains several semantic identifiers,
which differentiate the conceptual and ontological semantics of their influence.

Figure 1: A balanced semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions (group theme size:50%).
Additional theme classification thresholds are explored in the following figures. Figure 2 showcases a
narrow semantic classification of the data (theme sizes 25%). Fifteen key themes emerge through the
classification, with the key concepts modelling approaches and urban ranking high within the
classification themes.

Figure 2: A narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme sizes are set to 25%
of theme concepts.
The following Figure 3 illustrates the changes in semantic theme allocations when the theme size
(influences) is increased to 33% of the classification categories. Models, systems and urban concepts
became relatively more influential as drivers of the semantic classifications. The development of
research tools are relatively disconnected from the thematic domain of urban systems and models in
this classification scheme.

Figure 3: A relatively narrow semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size is set
to 33%).
Increasing the semantic classification theme size to 75% (Figure 4), results in three broad semantic
categories: models, urban and development. A significant overlap exists between urban and models (in
terms of social system approaches), whilst development of these tools and their impacts seem to be
relatively disconnected from the other two concepts.


Figure 4: A relative broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size is set to
75%.
Finally, Figure 5 shows the most broad semantic classifications of the data (theme size is 99%). This
categorization reveals the persistence of two broad themes in the analysis, the ones that focus on urban
and modelling issues respectively. The overlap between these two categories is also increased
compared to the previous theme size, and reflects the potential influence of scientific models and tools
to urban issues such as sustainability, systems, or social and economic issues.

Figure 5: A very broad semantic classification of the SMURT workshop questions. Group theme size is set to
99%.

1.2.2 Semantic Statistics
The results summaries for the four SMURT workshop questions are:
Results summary for Question 1 (shown in left part of Table 1): Regional research using urban
models to address sustainability challenges. Focusing on system changes and interactions
pertaining economic, policy, and social system approaches. We need complex analysis tools
that address important environmental and land use impacts.
Results summary for Question 2 (shown in right part of Table 1): Emphasis on models and
system approaches to urban sustainability. Analysis of regional interactions to address
research challenges in social and economic development as well as land use change. Providing
appropriate tools for simulation in complex policy environments is important
Table 1: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 1 and 2.

Similarly,
Results summary for Question 3 (shown in the left part of Table 2): Various models and tools
for urban systems regional environmental simulations. Such approaches to sustainability
policies are important for the development and analysis of complex land interactions, as well
as in social systems research.
Results summary for Question 4 (shown in the right part of Table 2): The responses obtained
for this question bare some similarities with question 3, but are more directed towards using
scientific tools in applied and empirical settings of interest to key stakeholders, decision and
policy makers. Providing models using urban regional research approaches to sustainability.
Development of tools for systems interactions, economic and policy analysis, and simulation
of social impacts.

Concept Count Concept Count
regional 7 38.8% models 12 66.6%
research 7 38.8% systems 7 38.8%
urban 6 33.3% approaches 7 38.8%
models 6 33.3% sustainability 5 27.7%
sustainability 5 27.7% urban 4 22.2%
challenges 4 22.2% analysis 4 22.2%
change 4 22.2% regional 4 22.2%
systems 3 16.6% interactions 3 16.6%
interactions 3 16.6% challenges 3 16.6%
economic 3 16.6% research 3 16.6%
policy 3 16.6% social 3 16.6%
social 3 16.6% development 2 11.1%
approaches 2 11.1% economic 2 11.1%
complex 2 11.1% land 2 11.1%
tools 2 11.1% change 2 11.1%
important 2 11.1% tools 2 11.1%
environment 1 5.5% simulation 2 11.1%
analysis 1 5.5% environment 1 5.5%
land 1 5.5% complex 1 5.5%
impacts 1 5.5% policy 1 5.5%
important 1 5.5%
Selected Concept: Question 1
Total Count = 20
Relative Count
Total Count = 21
What do you see as the main challenges for
urban/regional sustainability research?
What would be appropriate scientific concepts and
methodologies to address these challenges?
Relative Count
Table 2: Semantic rankings of workshop questions 3 and 4.

The summaries and their associated probabilities were also broadly classified into three thematic
groups: economic, environmental and social. The following figures showcase the joint probabilities of
semantic attributes versus the classification theme groups (Figure 6) as well as the specific
probabilities of the semantic attributes and their mean theme performance (Figure 7).
Concept Count Concept Count
models 13 86.6% models 7 33.3%
urban 5 33.3% urban 3 14.2%
tools 5 33.3% regional 3 14.2%
systems 4 26.6% research 3 14.2%
environment 3 20.0% approaches 2 9.5%
regional 3 20.0% sustainability 2 9.5%
simulation 3 20.0% tools 2 9.5%
approaches 2 13.3% systems 1 4.7%
sustainability 2 13.3% development 1 4.7%
policy 2 13.3% interactions 1 4.7%
important 2 13.3% economic 1 4.7%
development 1 6.6% analysis 1 4.7%
analysis 1 6.6% policy 1 4.7%
land 1 6.6% simulation 1 4.7%
complex 1 6.6% impacts 1 4.7%
research 1 6.6% social 1 4.7%
social 1 6.6%
Total Count = 17
Relative Count
Total Count = 16
Relative Count
What Tools you would be looking for in modeling
simulation of urban and regional transitions?
How can we ensure to address the needs of the key
stakeholders and to effectively improve decision and
pollicy-making processes?

Figure 6: J oint probabilities of semantic attributes versus classification categories in SMURT workshop questions.

0
.
2
.
4
.
6
.
8
P
(
a
t
t
r
|
c
a
t
)
P(attr|cat)
u
r
b
a
n
t
o
o
l
s
s
y
s
t
e
m
s
s
u
s
t
a
i
n
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
s
i
m
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
r
e
s
e
a
r
c
h
r
e
g
i
o
n
a
l
p
o
l
i
c
y
m
o
d
e
l
s
l
a
n
d
i
n
t
e
r
a
c
t
i
o
n
s
i
m
p
o
r
t
a
n
t
i
m
p
a
c
t
s
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
c
o
m
p
l
e
x
c
h
a
n
g
e
c
h
a
l
l
e
n
g
e
s
a
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
e
s
a
n
a
l
y
s
i
s
economic environment social

Figure 7: Specific variable and classification group probabilities for semantic analysis of the SMURT workshop
questions.

0
.
1
.
2
.
3
.
4
P
(
v
a
r
)
Attribute Variable Category Variable
m
o
d
e
l
s
u
r
b
a
n
r
e
s
e
a
r
c
h
r
e
g
i
o
n
a
l
s
y
s
t
e
m
s
s
u
s
t
a
i
n
a
b
i
l
i
t
y
a
p
p
r
o
a
c
h
e
s
t
o
o
l
s
s
i
m
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
l
a
n
d
c
h
a
n
g
e
c
h
a
l
l
e
n
g
e
s
p
o
l
i
c
y
i
n
t
e
r
a
c
t
i
o
n
s
d
e
v
e
l
o
p
m
e
n
t
c
o
m
p
l
e
x
i
m
p
o
r
t
a
n
t
i
m
p
a
c
t
s
a
n
a
l
y
s
i
s
s
o
c
i
a
l
e
n
v
i
r
o
n
m
e
n
t
e
c
o
n
o
m
i
c
WORKSHOP PROGRAM AND PARTICIPANTS
2. WORKSHOP PROGRAM AND PARTICIPANTS
The workshop was held in Melbourne, 4-6 December 2007. The SMURT workshop included 12
concrete sessions over two full days. Six of these sessions provided the necessary science background
for modelling and simulation in urban and regional sustainability transitions. Three sessions discussed
the overall goals and strategic directions of the CSE urban systems program. Another three sessions
provided the opportunities to participants to engage in structured dialogue and facilitated exercises that
aimed to address key questions and challenges related to the modelling and simulation of urban and
regional sustainability transitions. Six invited keynote speeches were given, as well as 16 contributed
presentations that addressed a number of modelling and simulation approaches and methodological
frameworks. The detailed workshop program is listed in the next session.

Figure 8: The SMURT workshop participants during a working dinner.
2.1 Workshop Program
2.1.1 Tuesday, December 4th, 2007 - Welcome
Opening Dinner, Welcome, and Keynote Speech
Keynote Speech: Alan Stokes (Executive Director, National Sea Change Taskforce). Title:
Sense of Place in Urban Australia
2.1.2 Wednesday, December 5th, 2007
CSE Urban Science: Workshop Goals and Challenges (Session Coordinator:
Matthew Inman)
CSE Urban Science: Prospects and Opportunities Allen Kearns
SMURT Goals and Challenges Xiaoming Wang & Kostas Alexandridis
Questions and Discussion
Workshop Structure/Process Andrew Rixon (Workshop Facilitator)
Tea Break and Graffiti Wall (Connection)
Scientific Fundamentals in Urban and Regional Dynamics (Session Coordinator:
Allen Kearns)
Keynote Presentation: Prof Peter Newman (Director, Institute for Sustainability and
Technology Policy, Murdoch University). Title: Fundamentals of Urban and Regional
Dynamics
Keynote Presentation: Prof Peter Campbell (University of South Australia). Title: Modelling
and Simulation Techniques to Support Understanding of Sustainable Socio-Technical
Systems.
Questions and Discussion, Graffiti Wall
Strategic Science for Urban and Regional Dynamics (Session Coordinator: Tim
Baynes)
Process and Mechanism of Urban Transition: An Evolutionary Perspective Xuemei Bai
Overview of the Sustainable Communities Initiative Sean Rooney
A Review of Modelling in Urban and Regional Transitions Xiaoming Wang and Kostas
Alexandridis
Policy Impact Analysis: Modelling Capacities and Experience in CSE Scott Heckbert
Lunch and Graffiti Wall
Approaches for Understanding Urban and Regional Transitioning (Session
Coordinator: Kostas Alexandridis)
Keynote Presentation: Assoc Prof Bryan Pijanowski (Director, Human-Environment
Modeling & Analysis Laboratory, Purdue University, USA). Title: Using Diverse Modelling
Methods to Forecast Land Use Change in the United States, Eastern Europe, and East Africa:
Current Trends and Sustainability Perspectives.
Keynote Presentation: Chris Pettit (Statewide Leader, Spatial Sciences, PIRVic DPI). Title:
GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist Urban and Regional Planning and
Management
Neil Davidson, et al. (Sustainability Broker Collaborative Innovation Systems). Title:
Facilitating Emergence? Developing resources to map existing systems, model and create
future systems, and accelerate necessary transitions
Tea Break and Graffiti Wall
Parallel Session A: Urban and Regional Transitions (Session Coordinator: Graham
Turner)
A Framework for Assessing Increased Patterns of Landscape Ecological Homogenization and
Social Heterogeneity in Agricultural Landscapes Undergoing Transition to Peri-Urban
Landscapes Neil MacLeod
Agricultural Chain Resilience under Urbanizing Pressures Ainsley Archer
Urbanizing Landscapes in Northern Queensland Cameron Fletcher
Parallel Session B: Built Environment (Session coordinator: Pramesh Chand)
NEMSIM as a Long Term Agent-based Simulation and Scenario Exploration Tool for
Electricity Market Development George Grozev
Life Cycle Assessment of the Built Environment Selwyn Tucker
Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings Zhenggen Ren
Break and Graffiti Wall
Facilitated Dialogue: Challenges, Opportunities and Gaps (Facilitator: Andrew Rixon)
Facilitated dialogue
2.1.3 Thursday, December 6th, 2007
Special Session for Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems (Session Coordinator:
Scott Heckbert)
Report from the First Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems Workshop Tim Baynes
Simulating the Behaviour of Adaptive Agents David Batten
Vulnerability of Urban Water Services in Pacific Island Countries Magnus Moglia
Modelling the Uptake and Impact of Distributed Energy Simon Dunstall
Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities Freeman Cook
Question Time
Group Exercise and Facilitated Dialogue: Capabilities, Challenges, Opportunities,
Gaps and Pathways (Facilitator: Andrew Rixon)
Group exercise and facilitated dialogue
Developing a Science Plan for Transitioning Cities Research Stream Xuemei Bai
Group Exercise and Facilitated Dialogue: Capabilities, Challenges, Opportunities,
Gaps and Pathways (Facilitator: Andrew Rixon)
Closing Allen Kearns / Matthew Inman
2.2 Workshop Participants
A short overview of the workshop participant bios is provided below. The bios are arranged in
alphabetical order by participants surname.
2.2.1 Keynote Speakers
Campbell, Peter: Professor of Systems Modelling and Simulation, Centre of
Excellence for Defence and Industry Systems Capability (CEDISC), Defence and
Systems Institute (DASI), University of South Australia
Professor of Systems Modelling and Simulation in the Defense and Systems Institute (DASI) at the
University of South Australia from 2004 and founding member of the Centre of Excellence for
Defense and Industry Systems Capability (CEDISC), a new government funded centre for up-skilling
government and industry in systems engineering and systems integration. Continued association with
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) as Simulation Technology Applications Advisor to the Decision
and Information Sciences Division. Through mid 2007, consultant to CSIRO Complex Systems
Science Initiative to introduce complex system simulation tools for agricultural landscape planning.
From 1994 to 2000 Professor Campbell served as Director of the Advanced Computer Applications
Center in Argonne National Laboratory, focusing on simulation-based decision-support tools for
application in logistics, battlefield environmental representation, hydrological planning, healthcare,
and meteorological forecasting applications, including new technical developments for complex
adaptive system applications involving human interactions with systems and organizations. His prior
affiliations with Decision and Information Sciences Division of Argonne National Laboratory, EES
Division and Private organizations and consulting companies.
Newman, Peter: Director of the Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy,
Murdoch University
Peter Newman is the Professor of City Policy and Director of the Institute for Sustainability and
Technology Policy, at Murdoch University. In 2006/7 he was in the US as a Fulbright Scholar at the
University of Virginia Charlottesville, examining innovations in sustainability in US cities, regions
and states. This is based on comparative work he did in Western Australia at the political level when
he worked with the Premier of WA from 2001 to 2004 to develop the State Sustainability Strategy;
this was the first state in the world with such a strategy, covering 42 areas of government. In 2004-5
Peter was the NSW Sustainability Commissioner assisting with the production of the Metropolitan
Strategy. He is well known in Perth for his work in rebuilding Perths rail system which is now seen as
a model for modern cities. Peters academic work includes his book with J eff Kenworthy
'Sustainability and Cities: Overcoming Automobile Dependence' which was launched in the White
House in 1999 and his 2001 co-authored book is called Back on Track: Rethinking Australian and
New Zealand Transport. Peter is the author of the chapter on Greening Urban Transportation in
Worldwatch Institutes State of the World, 2007.
Pettit, Chris: Statewide Leader Spatial Sciences, Primary Industries Research
Victoria (PIRVic), Department of Primary Industries.
Dr Pettit is the Statewide Leader - Spatial Sciences and Principal Research Scientist within the
Department of Primary Industries Victoria. Dr Pettit maintains honorary appointment at the University
of Melbourne as Associate Professor in Geomatics and he is a Senior Research Associate of RMIT
University. Dr Pettits spatial sciences groups in DPI applies a range of spatial technologies including
spatial decision support systems, visualisation, remote sensing, GIS across a number of natural
resource management application areas including climate change, water use efficiency, agricultural
productivity and peri-urban land use change. Dr Pettit has an international track record in the area of
spatial planning and decision support systems and visualisation across a number of theme areas
including: urban planning, climate change, natural resource management, and knowledge
management. Dr Pettit is the Associate Editor for the International J ournal Applied Spatial Analysis
and Policy and is the scientific secretary for the ISPRS WG II/4 on Spatial Planning and Decision
Support Systems. Dr Pettit completed his PhD in 2003 where he developed a number of land use
change scenarios for Hervey Bay using GIS and the What if? Planning Support System. Dr Pettit has
published over 50 peer reviewed book chapter, journal conference papers over the last 10 years. He
has participated in more than 20 International conferences in a range of capacities including keynote
speaker, conference organiser, session organiser, session chair and presenter. Dr Pettit is the author to
the ESRI International online course Introduction to urban and regional planning using ArcGIS
where more than 9000 students from around the world have registered or completed.
Pijanowski, Bryan C.: Associate Professor, Director of Human-Environment
Modelling and Analysis Laboratory (HEMA), and Discovery Center for the
Environment, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.
Bryan C. Pijanowski is currently Associate Professor in the Department of Forestry and Natural
Resources at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA. His research interests focus on
understanding the drivers and consequences of land use change using a diversity of approaches that
span machine learning, role playing simulation, geographic information systems and agent-based
models. He has developed and applied simulation models to many areas of the world, including the
United States, Central and Eastern Europe, East Africa and South East Asia. Dr. Pijanowski maintains
a rigorous research program funded by the National Science Foundation, US Environmental Protection
Agency, NASA, and several foundations. He also works closely with local stakeholders who help
frame, analyze and use his model results in decision making. Many of his models are being used to
forecast several decades in the future in the hope of understanding consequences of land use actions
that impact sustainability. Dr. Pijanowski is also co-Director of the Purdue Sustainable Land Use
Systems project that is designed to develop new approaches to understanding sustainability and land
use change in the United States.
Stokes, Alan: Executive Director, National Sea Change Taskforce
Alan Stokes is the Executive Director of the National Sea Change Taskforce. His professional
background is in communications, media and the local government sector, having worked as
communications executive with the City of Casey in Melbourne. He has also provided strategic
communications advice to local government authorities in Victoria and Queensland. Alan played a key
role in the initial formation of the sea change group of councils, beginning with the organization of the
Sea Change Summit in February 2004 and the establishment of the sea change taskforce of CEOs. He
subsequently managed the formal constitution of the National Sea Change Taskforce, in November
2004. The National Sea Change Taskforce was established as a national body to represent the interests
of coastal councils and communities experiencing the effects of rapid population and tourism growth.
2.2.2 Participants
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems (CSE):
Alexandridis, Kostas
Archer, Ainsley
Bai, Xumei
Boulaire, Fanny
Chand, Pramesh
Fletcher, Cameron
Grozev, George
Inman, Matthew
Kearns, Allen
McFallan, Stephen
MacLeod, Neil
Levinson, Matthew
Nguyen, Minh
Rooney, Sean
Ren, Zhenggen
Schandl, Heinz
Straton, Anna
Ton, Tu
Tucker, Selwyn
Turner, Graham
Wang, Xiaoming
Yum, Kwok
Zhou, Mingwei

CSIRO Complex Systems Science (CSS):
Batten, David
Baynes, Tim
Cook, Freeman
Cook, Steve
Heckbert, Scott
Dunstall, Simon
Moglia, Magnus
Williams, Rachel

External Organizations:
Blake, Charles (Energy
technologist)
Pijanowski, Bryan (Purdue
university, USA)
Campbell, Peter (University of
South Australia)
Davidson, Neil (Collaborative
Innovation System)
Hulsman, Kees (Ecology,
Griffith University)
MacMartin, Duncan (Social
Transformation)
Mochelle, Richard (Architect,
QUT)
Newman, Peter (Murdoch
University)
Pettit, Chris (Department of
Primary Industries)
Stokes, Allan (National Sea
Change Task Force)

2.3 Workshop Committee
2.3.1 Advisory Committee
Bai, Xuemei (CSE, Gunghalin
Foliente, Greg (CSE, Highet)
Heckbert Scott (CSE, Townsville)
Inman, Matthew (CSE, North Ryde)
Kearns, Allen (CSE, Gungahlin)
Lynam, Tim (CSE, Townsville)
Schandl, Heinz (CSE, Gungahlin)
Turner, Graham (CSE, Gungahlin)

2.3.2 Organizing Committee
Wang, Xiaoming (CSE, Highet)
Alexandridis, Kostas (CSE, Townsville)
Baynes, Tim (CSE, North Ryde)

WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS
3. WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS
1

3.1 The Challenge of Coastal Growth Alan Stokes (Keynote
speech)
Mr. Alan Stokes, addressed the workshop participants during the opening dinner of the workshop. He
laid out the current major challenges for research and policy related to coastal growth in Australia, as
they are perceived from the National Sea Change Taskforce. Mr. Stokes provided a number of relevant
statistics on the growth of coastal regions in Australia, including demographic and population changes,
housing and lifestyle preferences, and community-based characteristics of growth. Finally, Mr. Stokes
provided an insight and roadmap for the policy making framework required to address these
challenges, both for the local governments and communities, as well as for the Australian Federal
Government.
3.2 CSE Urban Science: Challenges and Opportunities Allen
Kearns
CSIRO has made significant progress in developing a suite of national flagships that address urban
energy, water, climate adaptation and health issues. The prospects and opportunities for CSE Urban
Science researchers are to work with urban domain experts to develop and implement systems
integration frameworks that demonstrate the value of thinking across multiple disciplines and
jurisdictions found in urban environments. To achieve this goal will require skills and techniques such
as simulation modelling, community engagement, action research partnerships, urban science,
engineering and technology, urban informatics and systems thinking techniques that respond to the
dynamic interactions between disciplines and the complex components of cities. The three big urban
science opportunities that I see ahead are as follows: Adapting our present and future urban ways of
life to living with less oil in what are presently car-dependent cities and suburbs; Rejuvenating our
existing buildings and urban infrastructure to reduce urban resource use per person (energy, water,
construction materials, food) by 20% by 2020, and; Planning and design of safe, attractive, sustainable
and secure urban environments with the design goal of improved health and well-being.
3.3 SMURT Goals and Challenges Kostas Alexandridis and
Xiaoming Wang
Within a highly complex and inter-connected world, enhancing simulation and modelling of urban and
regional sustainability transitions is an essential part of the ways for us to understand, respond and
adapt to the dramatic changes around us. Transitions in the structure and configuration of our urban
and regional landscapes are directly and indirectly interwoven with changes in the structure and
character of our social functions and groups. Simulation can inform management and policy makers,
through successful and interactive dialogue and communication, setting priorities with a clear
understanding of the problems that the society is facing in the future as well as assessing possible

1
The full workshop presentations are provided in the Appendix A.

impacts of key decisions and the severity of the problems to the society as a whole at all scales
(local, regional, state and national). Urban and regional transition is a human-driven process. Unless
we clearly understand the degree and magnitude of transitions social significance, we cannot achieve
levels of policy and management responses that would enhance the social, economic, institutional and
cognitive capacity of societies to respond and adapt to the transitions. Simulation and modelling may
provide an alternative pathway to the answers. The workshop aims to establish a shared appreciation
of the most pressing sustainability issues and what research and modelling techniques are appropriate
for developing and communicating potential transition solutions.
3.4 Fundamentals of Urban and Regional Dynamics Prof. Peter
Newman (keynote speech)
This presentation will examine how transport planning priorities and planning systems drive city form
and development. These physical planning directions however are part of a cultural, economic and
political milieu in cities that is constantly being remade. The new constraints of climate change and
peak oil as well as the need to ensure better local ecological outcomes, will mean cities need to be
remade again. Signs of how this will be needed are happening. The way that physical planning can
change to provide the tools that are culturally, economically and politically relevant is the task of
urban policy advocates and researchers. A core idea will be to examine how the Marchetti Constant on
travel time budgets can be maintained in alternative, more sustainable urban forms based on centers
and corridors of transit. Data required to model this will include the transit speeds that are required in
each corridor and the population and job numbers in each centre to make an urban system work viably
in an economic sense. The cultural and political processes required will need to include community
engagement so that the issues of density, mix and transit quality are easily understood as key
interlinking variables for sustainability and community-based social marketing is developed in an
urban sustainability package.
3.5 Modelling and Simulation Techniques to Support
Understanding of Sustainable Socio-Technical Systems
Prof. Peter Campbell (keynote speech)
Gaining an in-depth understanding of sustainability requires the consideration of the complex non-
linear interactions between physical, biological and socio-economic issues and their effects.
Experimentation with real systems is no longer possible, leaving large scale simulation as one of the
most useful tools we have to aid in understanding such complex interactions. The presentation will
provide an over view of several approaches to the development of useful models and the
characteristics they should have, and will illustrate with a number of examples.
3.6 Developing a Science Plan for Transitioning Cities Research
Stream Xuemei Bai
The changes in urban environment (and virtually all other urban system performances) are the result of
a complex interaction among the system components, and is influenced by external factors beyond the
urban system. While some attempts were made to identify patterns of such change, it is important to
recognize these patterns as the outcome of various process and mechanisms underlying them, and that
they should not be regarded as a stylized one that is to be followed by other cities. This presentation
explores how evolutionary perspective can contribute to the understanding of urban transition, from
pattern to underlying mechanism.
3.7 Overview of the Sustainable Communities Initiative Sean
Rooney
The Sustainable Communities Initiative (SCI) is a three year 'action learning' program designed to
develop and deliver innovative and integrated solutions to enable Australian communities to realize
sustainable social, economic and environmental vitality. The SCI brings together participants from
across governments, businesses, NGO's and CSIRO, to work in partnership with communities, to
develop and deliver innovative and integrated responses to local sustainability challenges and
opportunities. The SCI provides a vehicle for to develop and test applications in urban and regional
transitions.
3.8 A Review of Modelling in Urban and Regional Transitions
Xiaoming Wang and Kostas Alexandridis
The presentation will give an overall overview on the modelling and simulation techniques, which has
been applied in the urban and regional settings and dynamics. Understanding the strengths and
weaknesses of the models, techniques and methods both at the theoretical/methodological levels and at
the applied/real-world settings is essential for crossing inter- and cross-disciplinary science
boundaries. How to model urban and regional dynamics at different temporal and spatial scales,
operate within different knowledge and information domains, and encapsulate a range of
environmental, social and economic dimensions of urban and regional change is the key issues that
should be developed in modeling and simulation methodology.
3.9 Impact Analysis: Modelling Capacities and Experience in
CSE Scott Heckbert
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems has a high level of capability and experience in modelling and
simulation, although the application to urban systems has been limited. Our researchers have used a
suite of techniques including but not limited to: computable general equilibrium, agent-based models,
optimisation, Stocks and Flows Framework, network analysis, cellular automata, systems dynamics,
and others. Each technique is suited to different questions, and/or scales of resolution. CSE projects
have realised impact through proving policy impact assessment, where simulation modelling is used to
assess the outcomes of various policy interventions that a management body can implement. There is a
challenge to make the modelling relevant for policy use, particularly through empirical validation of
the models we use. Specific examples will be given from experiences using agent-based techniques,
identifying ways to empirically calibrate / validate these models. This presentation will attempt to map
modelling capacity within CSE to identified research areas in urban simulation and modelling, and
highlight the need to align research needs with the list of requirements and deliverables involved in
different modelling techniques.
3.10 Using Diverse Modelling Methods to Forecast Land Use
Change in the United States, Eastern Europe, and East
Africa: Current Trends and Sustainability Perspectives
Prof. Bryan C. Pijanowski (keynote speech)
We have analysed land use/cover change data from three diverse areas of the world: the Upper
Midwest USA, Eastern Europe and East Africa. Rates and patterns of land use change vary
tremendously reflecting the diverse nature of the socio-ecological drivers of change present in these
regions. Rates and patterns are also scale dependent and the need to understand the complex
interactions of drivers and the scales at which they operate is at the forefront of research in land
change modelling. I review the important features of land use change in each of these three regions
and then show how these are being used to build forecast models that are being used to understand
how land use impacts climate change and hydrologic cycles. We also show how diverse methods, such
as agent based modelling, role playing simulation and machine learning tools can be used
simultaneously to improve out understand of this complex process.
3.11 GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist Urban
and Regional Planning and Management Chris Pettit
(keynote speech)
One of the greatest challenges facing planners and policy-makers today it the ability to synthesize vast
amounts of information in order to envision future sustainable land use scenarios. Since the advent of
the first computer based planning tools in the late 1950s and early 1960s, deterministic mathematical
models were developed to predict spatial changes in land use patterns. In the 1970s these deterministic
models became more and more complicated and less transparent, which led to Lees (1973) large scale
urban models. Since that time there has been an emergence of non-deterministic modelling techniques
such as Cellular Automata, underpinning urban growth models such as SLEUTH, and the arrival of
collaborative GIS based Planning Support Systems such as What if?. More recently we have seen an
increase in visualization technologies such as gaming engines (e.g. Torque and UnReal) and Earth
Browers (e.g. Google Earth and Nasa Worldwind) as a potential tools to engage planners and policy-
makers. This presentation will discuss the potential application of a number of spatial planning models
and visualisation interfaces for making better land use decisions. The presentation will examine the
current state of the art urban and regional planning models and will discuss some of the challenges
facing urban and regional sustainability research from the perspective of end user adoption.
3.12 Facilitating Emergence? Developing resources to map
existing systems, model and create future systems, and
accelerate necessary transitions Neil Davidson et al.
Rising concern about multiple and interconnected crises facing the planet has seen an increasing
number of publications discussing the problem. The science is becoming more certain daily and it has
become increasingly apparent that business-as-usual approaches will not provide the needed solutions.
Change would be difficult even if we had ample time, but the impending crises make rapid change
imperative. Communities at various scales recognising the need to change are starting to develop their
own solutions. However there are few resources to inform communities and government of how we
might achieve the systemic solutions required to address such systemic problems. Some discourse has
covered the need for transformative change, but recent discussions have also underlined some of the
most critical issues that would-be change agents face, including: constraints of institutional inertia on
the adaptive capabilities of complex, dynamic social systems; cognitive dissonance between many key
progressives understanding of the imperatives for rapid large-scale change, and their assumptions
about how transformational change might be achieved; an apparent reduction in the time and space
available to make informed decisions during changing times, and with less informed debate and
participation from open-minded contributors. Even among those most informed of the perils and needs
for urgent solutions there is potential for a dangerous collision between players with often quite
sophisticated understanding of aspects of the science underpinning sustainability and those with less-
scientific social transformative change agendas. We need to create the critical mass required to
facilitate informed debate, develop viable visions, and create systemic solutions and resource the rapid
transformations required to more sustainable human systems. A group of players in Southeast
Queensland is currently developing the nucleus of a Systems Design Network at the interface between
government, community and industry to help meet this urgent need.
3.13 A Framework for Assessing Increased Patterns of Landscape
Ecological Homogenization and Social Heterogeneity in
Agricultural Landscapes Undergoing Transition to Peri-Urban
Landscapes Neil MacLeod
Conventional models of vegetation and landscape change derived form ecological studies of
agricultural landscapes typically provide a misleading picture of landscape change in peri-urban
landscapes. Additional dimensions, including subdivision of management scales, human population,
and the extent of hard infrastructure add considerable scope for predicting ecological trajectories in
these landscapes.
3.14 Agricultural Chain Resilience under Urbanizing Pressures
Ainsley Archer
Sustainable agricultural systems are fundamental to a large proportion of the world economies and
critical for stable urban communities. As with other systems such as manufacturing and transport,
operations research methodologies have been extensively applied to different agriculture value chains,
particularly in the production and processing sectors. Despite these extensive applications that are
aimed at increasing profitability or reducing costs, industry adoption has been minimal. The common
reasons behind this lack of adoption, include: biophysical and climatic uncertainty; complex chain
ownership structures; over-simplification of value chain models; and lack of industry involvement in
the development of the tools. A further key reason, which is less understood, is that increasing
efficiency is often either not the primary goal in agriculture value chains or difficult to achieve using
operations research methodologies alone. Resilience, or the ability to return to a desirable state in the
event of a value chain disturbance, is often a greater need for participants in agriculture chains when
striving for sustainability. We explore the trade-off between whole-of-system resilience versus
efficiency in agriculture value chains, and suggest how operations research can be a valuable resource
within a multi-disciplinary methodology to address some of the challenges.
3.15 Urbanizing Landscapes in Northern Queensland Cameron
Fletcher
The Reef Water Quality Protection Plan aims at halting and reversing the decline in water quality
entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) by 2015. Population growth rates in GBR catchments are,
however, amongst the largest in Australia and expected to lead to substantial changes in land use, a
subsequent decline in water quality and degradation of the GBR ecosystem. This paper explores
welfare gains that can be obtained from population growth in a linked terrestrial and marine
ecosystem, using a deterministic optimal control approach in which we equate terrestrial benefits from
population induced residential development patterns and, subsequent, marine costs from water
pollution associated with these development patterns. Patterns of land use development are thereby
explored using a classic urban economic model with environmental amenities, while associated water
quality impacts are assessed using a water quality model. For a case study catchment in the Wet
Tropics of Australia, results show that the welfare maximizing population size depends to a large
extent on whether downstream costs from water pollution are taken into account. Ignoring
downstream costs from water pollution leads to welfare maximizing populations that are multiple
times the current catchment population. Accounting for these downstream costs, however, leads to
welfare maximizing populations that are only a fraction larger than the current catchment population.
3.16 NEMSIM as a Long Term Agent-based Simulation and
Scenario Exploration Tool for Electricity Market Development
George Grozev
This presentation aims to share some experience about NEMSIM an agent-based simulation tool for
Australias National Electricity Market, which is an advanced stage of development by CSIRO Energy
Transformed Flagship Program. This tool captures complex interactions between market participants,
technical infrastructures and the natural environment. It uses computer-simulated agents to represent
the decision making of power companies. It provides a set of demand models consistent with climate
change scenarios and simulates the spot market based on bidding and dispatch over 30 minute
intervals. It uses several open sources J ava libraries for sophisticated data manipulations and advanced
graphical user interface.
3.17 Life Cycle Assessment of the Built Environment Selwyn
Tucker
As concern over the environmental impacts of residential housing construction grows, there is a push
to quantify and compare the environmental performance of the entire life cycle of buildings from
production of materials, fabrication, construction, operation and final end-of-life disposal or recycling
to support sustainability decisions. As well as emissions to the environment during operation of a
building, production of building products make major contributions to environmental emissions.
Process modelling and life cycle analysis can quantify emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and
total greenhouse gas emissions. The environmental indicators or performance measures range from
greenhouse gas emissions (in terms of CO2 equivalents), embodied energy and water in products,
operating energy, generation of solid waste, ecological footprint and eco-points (eco-indicator 99).
These indicators are essential measures in determining whether one building or urban scenario has a
greater or lesser impact than another. Modelling such environmental impacts over the whole life cycle
is important in achieving sustainability.
3.18 Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings
Zhenggen Ren
This presentation will give a review on currently used building performance models (from microscale-
CFD to macroscale-multizone models) and their applications and limitations. The emphasis will be
given to our model-COwZ (COMIS with Subzones), which was developed in The Queens University
Belfast during my PhD study and later (from 1999-2006). COwZ can be used to predict indoor
airflows, temperatures, and pollutant dispersion and transport through individual rooms to a whole
building. Since it was made available for three years ago, COwZ was distributed to over one hundred
international researchers or research teams including some USA universities and UK Health and
Safety Laboratory, where it is under evaluation in a study of the spread and dispersion of toxic gases
released inside buildings.
3.19 Report from the First Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems
Workshop Tim Baynes
On the 3rd and 4th October 2007 the Complex Systems Science Theme convened a workshop entitled
Complex Systems Science in the Urban Context. Here we present the conclusions of that meeting
which: sought to identify major urban issues that could usefully be addressed with complex systems
science; examples of current urban research (not necessarily complex systems based); and asked: what
complex methods or approaches exist and how can they produce insight into urban dynamics?
3.20 Simulating the Behaviour of Adaptive Agents David Batten
Human ecosystems correspond to real life systems characterized by very strong, long-term interactions
between human communities and their environment. They not only process flows of matter and
energy, but also information flows. Nowadays, research on human ecosystems straddles the social,
computer, and environmental sciences. For example, it has created a space where anthropologists meet
with programmers. Until recently, such a creative space could not be found in Australia. This is why
two networks the Human Ecosystems Modelling with Agents (HEMA) network and CSIROs
Agent-Based Modelling (CABM) Working Group were created in 2002. In this presentation, I shall
attempt to synthesize the synergistic collection of ideas and applications that have emerged from the
simulation work of the HEMA network and CABM working group over the last five years.
3.21 Vulnerability of Urban Water Services in Pacific Island
Countries Magnus Moglia
The provision of Urban water services in Pacific Island Countries (PICs) is an urgent and dynamic
problem that requires considerable coordination and cooperation of a large range of stakeholders.
Complex socio-technical interactions must be considered while traditional and administrative
institutions work in parallel and institutional lock-in situations preventing change are common-place.
In attempting to foster a spirit of dialogue, integration and co-learning, an agent based model has been
developed, Tarawa Waterscape, through which complex interactions and impacts of behavioural
WORKSHOP EXERCISES AND INTERACTIONS
patterns can be explored. Local stakeholders are showing considerable albeit often compartmental
interest in the models; and real incentives for integrated management are required to create a more
constructive dialogue. Through a Delphi dialogue involving funding agencies, local stakeholders and
experts, such concerns are being constructively explored.
3.22 Modelling the Uptake and Impact of Distributed Energy
Simon Dunstall
The Intelligent Grid (IG) project was created to inform debate on the merits of distributed generation
and demand management (collectively Distributed Energy - DE) to deliver a future vision for an
electricity network that balances supply and demand for the benefit of consumers and utilities, and that
minimises greenhouse gas emissions, losses and price. A critical challenge to the delivery of this
vision is to determine the true value of DE for Australia and the triggers that will bring it about. There
remain a number of technical, regulatory and social issues that need to be addressed to satisfy
industry, government and community concerns. The project takes a multi-disciplinary integrated
approach to form the value proposition for DE by investigating the technical, economic,
environmental and social issues, and includes several simulation and modelling approaches.
3.23 Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities Freeman Cook
The transport of people and goods in cities will require modification in the near future from individual
to mass transit systems, but how can mass transit systems be made user friendly. A nested approach
that scales as the numbers being transported increases offers a flexible, efficient and user friendly
system. Will such a system really work? One way to test would be to model it with agent based
models and test for the likely problems.

4. WORKSHOP EXERCISES AND INTERACTIONS
A number of concrete workshop exercise sessions were conducted during the SMURT workshop that
gave the opportunity to participants to interact, brainstorm, exchange ideas and engage in constructive
dialogue and communication pertaining the goals and aims of the workshop. A summary of these
exercise sessions is provided in the following sessions.
4.1 Fishbowl Discussion
4.1.1 Introduction
A fishbowl discussion session (Wikipedia, 2008) was conducted that aimed to explore a common
vision for the SMURT workshop (Yankelovich, 2001). The participants were divided in two groups:
the inner fishbowl circle, and the outer fishbowl circle. The inner circle consisted volunteered
participants that were willing (and identified by others) to have an active discussion regarding
SMURT vision and goals. The rest of the participants remained in the outer fishbowl circle which
enclosed the inner circle. The discussion commenced at the inner circle and on regular intervals was
expanded to the outer circle. A rule of the exercise was enforced according to which, the interaction
between the inner and outer fishbowl circles was structured and contained within each category. More
specifically, when discussion was underway in the inner fishbowl circle, the outer circle participants
were not allowed to intervene, and vice versa. The discussion oscillated between the inner and outer
fishbowl circles in regular intervals. At the end of each inner-outer fishbowl session pair, questions
raised from the outer circle was introduced to the inner for further discussion. An overview of the
process is shown in the following figure.

Figure 9: A graphical representation of the fishbowl exercise design (upper part) and process (lower part). The
implementation of the fishbowl exercise for the SMURT workshop included two interactive sessions from each of
the inner and outer fishbowl circles.
The fishbowl exercise
4.1.2 Fishbowl discussion results
a. Inner session 1 (initial discussion)
The discussion begun with the realization that often modelling and simulation scientific approaches
have an inherent level of complexity, and involve multiple scientific disciplines. The need to work
together towards contributing to a better future becomes a more critical factor because of these
inherent complexities. Despite the fact that scientific tools for urban modelling and simulation of real-
world problems do often exist and have been extensively developed, an important barrier is that a
number of key decision makers and policy makers dont know how to move ahead or do not have the
necessary group dynamics that facilitates emergence and innovation. In addition, the decision-making
system for urban and sustainability transitions is configured in ways that enables decision makers to
focus on short-term decisions rather than long term visions for the future. Thus, there is a need for
education for changing thinking paradigms that are prominent in these areas of decision making.
Another point of discussion is the need to move away from problem-driven pressures that often dictate
actions and behaviours, towards a more innovative, vision-driven future. Yet, it is clear that such a
vision for the future in relation to scientific modelling and simulation of sustainability transitions does
not currently exist in many of our urban cities. The way ahead, is to generate a vision that is looking
forward to the future, rather than moving away from the present. Such a vision should have the ability
to encapsulate specific goals and roadmaps for endeavours. In addition, the vision should not be
technology-specific, as there are a number of alternative technologies that can help achieve desired
goals. Only with such a vision for research and implementation we can achieve enhanced outcomes
for the future.
Moving towards agreeing for such a vision, requires multiple scales, including local, regional, and also
global. Urbanization processes and modern cities are subject to global drivers and emergent processes
(the bigger picture). Furthermore, such a vision should engage and include multiple stakeholders,
such as Government departments, science organizations and agencies, regional and city planners, and
citizens. A good starting point would be to agree on the things that we dont want to see in the future
in our urban areas (e.g., pollution, water shortages, gas-dependences and crises), or things we would
like to see more in the future (e.g., emphasis on aesthetic, citizen-friendly cities, more natural
landscapes, etc.). These things might help direct our thinking and vision for the future.
Yet, in order to achieve a functional vision, we need to enhance the communication and collaboration
between scientists and policy makers. To this day, there is no strong communication pathway between
these two actors. We need to find ways to bridge the gap between the policy maker, the government
and the research. This is probably the only way to ensure that high-value scientific outcomes translate
into policy outputs and have impact on urban sustainability. Current research has both the skills and
the knowledge to address contemporary urban sustainability problems, yet the link to the policy
making and implementation is weak.
A way to address these gaps is to create more viable and open collaborative spaces with decision and
policy makers. We also need to be outward-looking and drive our efforts beyond the boundaries of the
scientific institution or government agency. The opening and maintaining of such collaborative spaces,
also has the potential to empower decision and policy makers to address more efficiently and
aggressively our contemporary problems, using the information and tools provided by scientists.
Nevertheless, such a collaborative space must work both ways; scientists require public attention and
recognition from the policy side in order to enhance their work. Such recognition also provides
funding and resources that in turn enhance the ability for delivering high-impact science.
Beyond the current gaps and needs, the discussion also recognized that some attention is starting to
move towards the right direction. Both the public and the policy makers are changing their ways of
thinking and look towards research for innovative solutions and ways to address these complex issues.
Examples of these problems that drive changes in attitudes are climate change and adaptation issues,
water shortages and energy crises, to name a few.
Another related issue is building networks and relations of trust among the scientists/researchers and
the decision and policy makers. Stronger relations of trust enhance the ability and efficiency of
collaboration. An important issue that often has significant impacts on the ability to openly collaborate
and generate trust relationships is the issue of intellectual and commercial property and viability.
Some discussants raised the issue of open source collaboration, the realities today demonstrate the
difficulties of achieving such a task. In some cases intellectual property and commercial viability
interfere with the need to find urgent and efficient solutions to some critical urban sustainability
problems. It also has impacts on implementing solutions, on their prices and the cost of new
technologies. It is also related with the consumers attitudes and our modern level of amenities we are
used to in our urban regions some of them may not be sustainable under future change scenarios.
Scientific modelling and simulation tools could better inform these issues, clarify what changes in our
thinking and collective behaviours can be sustained, and what technologies and solutions can be better
implemented in such a complex socioeconomic environment.
b. Outer session (first set of questions)
One issue identified by the outer fishbowl session participants is the need to address some popular
perceptions and policy responses, that are not based on scientific analysis, yet, have maintained a
strong level of support that contradicts research findings. An example of such is the climate change
debate at the global and national levels. There is a question if and how as scientists we can combat and
address these issues within such collaborative spaces and public dialogues as the ones proposed in the
inner fishbowl circle.
Following up on the latter point, the discussion identified the need to enhance the ability of informed
citizens at the local level of decision-making and their level of involvement to the public discussion
and dialogue, based on science, modelling and simulation. Often, informed citizen involvement and
public discussions can balance any existing policies and policy directions that may be based on
science fallacies. Facilitating such flows of information from the ground-up could be one of the
answers.
In order to focus on information flows, scientists need to look at and take into account the cognitive
and inferential skills of the decision makers. It is not uncommon to encounter decisions and inferential
approaches that are either not informed by logic or scientific information, or are influenced by these
scientific fallacies. A suggestion would be to focus on generating positive examples, e.g., scientists
and modellers working with decision and policy-makers, communities or individuals that generate
positive impacts.
The outer fishbowl participants turned the discussion back to the need for a viable vision. What should
be the specific steps on achieving such a vision?
In terms of the steps for achieving such a vision, a two-step process is proposed: (a) building
competency for dialogue, and; (b) building competency for collaboration. Both processes are distinct,
yet we need to address both successfully, in order to achieve a functional vision that will lead to
achievement of goals and real-world impact. If we want to achieve this, the question is not simply how
to generate open collaborative spaces, but also to hold them open and maintain them long enough for
achieving consensus and commitment for actual actions with impact. CSIRO has historically been
moving toward this pluralistic direction, and it is important to maintain the focus on both of the two
distinct processes.
In many occasions the real value rests on the mutual collaboration itself. Mutual collaborative benefits
can arise by mutual understanding of the drivers of change, the complexity of the problem space, and
the needs for research. This is also the basis of social learning that would focus on achieving a level of
comprehension and skills to collectively address these problems, as solutions that are not accompanied
by the ability of the stakeholders to work together to implement them have little chance of succeeding
addressing these complex problems.
Scientists also need to be honest and freely communicate that we dont hold always the answers to the
problems, and that our scientific knowledge, tools and methodologies often do not provide easy and
readily solutions to urban sustainability problems. Putting the cards on the table and being
transparent about the science, its prospects and its implementation has more potential to work towards
achieving collaborative solutions.
Another issue addressed at the outer fishbowl session is the lack of economists input and contribution
to the modelling and simulation of urban and sustainability transitions. Contemporary economists that
contribute to the current public and policy debates are putting strong emphasis on linear and often
oversimplified economic assumptions and projections of the future that are neither realistic nor
compatible to many nonlinear and complex models designed to address these problems.
One of the most important challenge for reaching a common vision for the future, is the actual time
and effort required to build such an open and collaborative process and bridge all the gaps, differences
of opinions, disagreements, multiple and often incompatible scientific disciplinary views. A really
wide and diverse array of factors and issues needs to overcome an equally large number of potential
disagreements that could emerge through such an open collaborative process. In order to do so, we
first need to start thinking outside the box and drive ourselves away from the status quo or
business-as-usual attitudes about both our own scientific work, and the way we collaborate with each
other. Such a process is both difficult and challenging. It requires special skills, often unpractised by
scientists, and the development of collaborative competencies that will help us in the first steps of
building a common vision. This process needs to happen also within CSIRO, as well as across CSIRO
and its potential stakeholders.
c. Inner session (answers and discussion)
Addressing the feedback and questions of the outer fishbowl session, the inner session has raised a
number of additional challenges.
The discussion raised a concern about the degree and ability of the current modelling and simulation
tools and competencies to address real-world challenges of urban sustainability. Before we move to
the process of generating a common vision, we have to look at what our models are capable of
delivering, and how well they are designed or positioned to address these problems. Often, our models
suffer from disciplinary fallacies, and even more often they constrain themselves within scientific and
theoretical boundaries that are not well defined in real-world terms. In other words, it is not often clear
how well model complexity reflects a real world complexity observed in our urban systems.
A proposed way to address the latter issue is to use visioning processes to inform choosing among the
right modelling tools and technologies.
The inner fishbowl discussion raised some tensions between the need to address the specific questions
about a vision for modelling and simulation approaches to urban and regional sustainability transitions
(more focused), and the need to start from the policy and decision making level and focus on
pragmatic or realistic problems and their challenges. In order to relieve these tensions, the focus of the
discussion was shifted back to the outer fishbowl group.
d. Outer session (second set of questions)
The discussants of the outer fishbowl session made the argument that understanding and addressing
modelling-specific questions requires a common vision. Such a vision should inform and drive the
modelling research questions. Otherwise, the danger is that we can be developing very complex and
scientifically interesting tools and models that might have no applicability, usability or value on
addressing real-world problems.
Other participants raised attention to the fact that roadmaps and visions dont have to be reinvented
from scratch. Such visions exist (such as the Bruntland Plus vision). In addition, there is a real danger
of engaging in visions that have only context-specific interpretations. If these visions are developed
are going to be constructed away from the current group and scientific realities, such context-specific
visions might not necessarily be required.
Similarly, we have to account for the possibility that decision and policy makers and stakeholders
might not grasp the whole problem in its full complexity and proper dimensions. Modelling today may
open pathways and improve future understanding of the system as a whole, and by itself facilitating
emergence of different or divergent set of questions regarding the problem itself or potential research
questions that aim to address potential solutions. There are a number of examples of such processes in
the Australian past, such as the irrigation modelling for Australia being done in the 1960s that
improved our understanding of the system and allowed solutions that havent been considered
beforehand.
An alternative benefit from the modellers standpoint is that even without a clear and distinct vision,
we still can exchange useful information about our modelling techniques, tools and experiences for
solving problems. The latter and the information that can be diffused throughout such a process can
have more influence on the science methodology itself. An alternative way to address the issue of the
existence or not of a vision, is to leave this process for the research clients at a project-specific
context.
The discussion of the outer fishbowl also addressed the need to incorporate the specific social
networks of researchers involved in simulation and modelling of urban sustainability transitions. We
need to identify our current competencies, skills and modelling expertise, in order to better position
our science for delivering outcomes and solutions with real-world impact. Therefore, social networks,
and relationship-building should be in the heart of the questions we are addressing.
In terms of CSIRO-specific issues, the discussion identified the need to built upon existing skills,
competencies and modelling expertise, in order to contribute and refine from the bottom-up rather than
from the top-down towards new directions for our science regarding modelling and simulation of
urban sustainability transitions.
Finally, a potential question that needs to be addressed from both the scientific and the real-world
aspects of the analysis is how we deal with situations where win/win solutions do not exist. Today,
consensus is building supporting the views that our complex environmental problems in our urban
environments do not have such solutions. Are there truly sustainable solutions remaining? If not,
whos the looser and whos the winner? Who decides? Modelling and simulation can inform such
decisions, but maybe requires a change in focus, to seek robust rather than optimal solutions. If this is
going to be the case, then we will need different toolsets and modelling/simulation methodologies.
e. Inner session (closing discussion)
Our ability as scientists to contribute models and simulation methodologies towards achieving
solutions heavily depends on the kind of long-term futures we are looking for. Without a clear and
distinct understanding of what these futures are or what futures we want, it is difficult to model and
simulate solutions. It is related to future parameter spaces. There is no use to model and simulate
potential solutions that will never be part of any alternative future.
Therefore, we need to define pathways for the future that work with our modelling and simulation
approaches and complement each other in order for our science to have real-world and policy impact.
Taking as an example the real expansion of public and policy interest in climate change and climate
adaptation research, the inner fishbowl discussion focused on the need to operationalize the resources
available at the organizational level of the scientific organization or agency. There are different
potential ways to address this really big type of questions, and operationalize the research resources
required. The first is to break the challenges into small components and target specifically each one of
them with specialized resources and skills. This requires also targeting particular groups and
stakeholders to achieve. The second is to address the challenges at the central level, e.g., at the federal
government level, and letting central and top-down administration and organization for
operationalizing research resources with link to State and local governments.
The wealth of data sources and resources available at the CSIRO level provide a good opportunity to
coordinate and share resources and operational costs for bringing them together to address these
issues. It also helps avoiding complex IP problems that tend to lock-up resources at the organizational
or research level. Unlocking and utilizing some of these connections and bridging disciplines and
disciplinary barriers to address big research questions is a step to the right direction. A big question
down the road is how we utilize collective resources to achieve collective benefits?
The inner fishbowl session concluded the discussion by returning to the complexities identified on
achieving a vision. The group discussed both the decision-theoretic aspects of achieving visions that
are based on specific targets (e.g., reducing CO
2
emission targets), versus a human-systems thinking
type of vision that focuses on changing attitudes and behaviour for addressing these complex urban
sustainability problems.

4.1.3 Fishbowl discussion highlights
The fishbowl discussion identified a number of issues and challenges for both the modelling scientific
community, but also for the scientific organizations, the government agencies, and various levels of
stakeholders, communities, decision and policy makers. Specifically, the highlights of the fishbowl
discussion exercise are:
We need to achieve a better understanding of both our capabilities, capacities and expertise as
modellers, and those of our modelling and simulation tools to address real-world questions
and problems, and provide better solutions for the future.
We need to enhance our collaboration and understanding of our mutual and cross-disciplinary
linkages. We can achieve this by focusing on opening and maintaining open collaboration
spaces and operationalize our resources and abilities to address big science and societal
question such as the climate change issue.
There is not a clear consensus about the need of a vision encapsulating both modelling and
policy dialogue and related issues. The discussants were divided about the potential benefits
of rushing into achieving such shared visions.
Modelling and simulation tools and methodologies can inform science and policy questions
for the future, but we need to be more clear on what these alternative futures are, what are the
options desired or being realistic for those futures, and how we can achieve robustness in
addressing these in our modelling and simulation techniques.
We need to achieve a more bottom-up process of collaborating, sharing expertise and
modelling experiences, and utilizing our complex social scientific networks.
We need to incorporate additional feedback from social and economic sciences that are either
missing or are too simplified/linear to contribute to modelling complex real-world problems.
4.2 Group Scribble storming A: Better models, research
pathways to impact.
4.2.1 Introduction
The group scribble storming exercise was designed to explore in more details ideas and thoughts of
the participants around the four theme questions of the workshop. The participants (see section 2.2 for
the list of participants) were self-divided into groups, and each group had time to discuss and address
three broad issues: (a) how we can achieve better models, (b) how we can achieve better research, and
(c) what are potential pathways to impact. The results of the discussions were scribbled on a poster-
size paper by group and are shown below.
4.2.2 Group 1
General Note: Need an ontology and theories of transition in complex social-ecological systems
Better Models (selection)
Access to peer group (networks longitudinal)
Better Research
None.
Pathways to Impact
Identifying and engaging Champions empower them thru research outcomes
Need multiple pathways
Demonstrating impact, parsing (measurable outcomes) the problem into elements connected to
the whole.
4.2.3 Group 2
Better Models
Data (availability, aggregation () integration)
Scalability (cross-within) related to integration
Transferability (generalization, robustness, emerging properties, context-dependent)
Ontologies (cross and within domains)
Some kind of additional flexibility (need to better define this).
Better Research
Do we have enough knowledge?
New technologies/ methodologies/ wide spectrum of research with different users.
Big picture research results
Bottom-up, participatory
Meta-databases/ meta-knowledge multi-source management new ways?
Pathways to Impact
Structural research results/ users.
Model visualization/ results convince funding agencies
Decouple our lifestyle with consumption (research area issue)
How do we measure science impact need to capture the mood of change
Multi-partnerships.
4.2.4 Group 3
Better Models

Figure 10: The process for developing better models (scribble-storming, group 2).

Better Research
Will the model give us a better resolution of the pathways to impact: adapting modelling in
response to adapting stakeholders.
We need to revisit the question.
Pathways to Impact
Awareness
Understanding
Thinking/Learning
Designing solutions
Implementing solutions

4.2.5 Group 4
Better Models
Ethics of whole systems
Institutional design
4.2.4 Group 3
Policy planning
Strategic planning
Operational planning
1. Retevence (?) model
2. Factoring:
Table 3: A matrix representation of multiple factors informing better models (scribble storming, group 4).

Better Research
Table 4: A matrix representation of multiple factors affecting the ability to perform better research (scribble
storming, group 4).

Pathways to Impact
Table 5: Examples of pathways to impact (scribble storming, group 4).

4.3 Group scribble-storming B: Domain representation
4.3.1 Introduction
The group scribble-storming session was conducted as an interactive dialogue-communication method
(Fruchter, 2005; Zhang et al., 2005). The participants were asked to contribute their expertise and
knowledge in various knowledge domains that were identified as significant for the SMURT goals,
and were informed from the questionnaire responses that the participants themselves provided. Small
group discussions emerged, and a series of domain notes and ideas were presented.
4.3.2 Domain: Climate Change
Tools
We have:
o Information, for example from CMAR on climate change projections
o ArcGIS for spatial assessment
o Methodology for hot spot assessment /risk /resilience analysis
o Hydrology models
o Electricity demand model NEMSIM

We dont have:
o Its hard to find tools to model and simulate climate change issues
o We dont have links to stakeholders
o We dont have enough databases to fully consider the impact of climate change on,
such as infrastructure, human settlement, ecological systems, health, and other
industries.
o We dont have models which may model and simulate the impact of climate change
on the above areas at different scales (both spatial and temporal) and also on social,
economic and environmental aspects.
o Lack of tools and methodology for up/down scaling in the analysis.
o We dont have tools to demonstrate (e.g., IP) the results and outcomes.
People and place
IPCC
CMAR, BoM
Climate change adaptation flagship
State & Federal government
Hydrology models (WfHC, CLW)
NEMSIM (George/CSE)
Spatial Assessment (Xiaoming/CSE, Tim)
ABM (Scott)
Climate change on infrastructure (Xiaoming/CSE)
Garnaut Review (State & Federal Government)
Fanny (Paul Davis (CLW) climate change on pipes
Models, Assumptions and Compatibility
Models from IPCC (were not familiar with those climate change projection models)
The assumption to use average value (scenarios) is right?
Are the extreme scenarios really extreme?
Would climate change predications and research efforts be another Y2K case?
Would the models we know/have include all critical issues?
Uncertainties, fuzziness?

4.3.3 Domain: Interfacing / Integration / Interoperability of Models
Tools
We have:
o Different domains of models
o Building, city, road energy, water, transport, ...)
We dont have:
o Instantiating different models in the same context (scenario, platform)
o Ontology/semantics (common language)
o Levels of detail (scale-up/down, aggregation/dis-aggregation)
o Inter-operability (e.g., energy, water distribution model)
o Data sets management
People and Place
CSE (MZ, TT)
CMIS/EFT (SD)
ICT (Kerry Taylor)
Compatibility/applicability
Deterministics of model assumptions
Propagation of errors/assumptions
(Hidden) Incompatibility of assumptions between models
Interpretation/visualization
Communications/collaborations of models and their stakeholders.

4.3.4 Domain: Beliefs, Attitudes and Behaviour
Tools
We have:
o Choice modelling (Kostas)
o Network Models (Kostas)
o Historical analyses narratives, oral histories (Anna)
o Companion Modelling (Magnus, Pascal Perez/ANU)
o Experimental Economics (various people in CSE
o Statistics
o Social network analysis
o ABMs and Mental Models (Scott and others)
o Stated preference techniques
We dont have:
o Capacity to model complex network dynamics
o Tools to explore relationships between past values and ethics, current and future
values and ethics.
o Tools to capture/represent behaviour change in a model
o Validating models of human behaviour
o SPSS
People and Place
Clive Spash (CSE Gungahlin) connection to ethics, attitudes and choices
Kostas (NWT), Bayesian belief modelling
Scott (ABM)
Anna (social engagement processes)
Human behaviour and social factors organization, culture, climate research
o Can be interlinked with Bayesian networks
Engineering system behaviour (Xiaoming) also connected with network theory
Questionnaire design for human behaviour assessment (Xiaoming)
Social Networks
What beliefs attitudes behaviours?
Enough data to train models, for example network models and ABMs (these models need
large amount of data)
Assumptions?
Compatibility of modelling scales?
Compatibility of different methods?
Case-sensitivity, not versatile models?

4.3.5 Domain: Mobility, Demand Responsive
Tools
We have:
o Simulations for demand responsive, public transport
o Synthesizing population data
We dont have:
o Supply: Automated translation from system description to models
o Demand: good choice model(s) well calibrated and up-to-choice
People and Place
Simon Dunstall, CMIS
Minwei, CSE
Tu Ton, CSE
NICTA/ANU
VUT
RMIT
Monash
NTU
VICRoad
Tokyo Uni

Figure 11: A modeling system representation for mobility demand responsive (traffic model).
4.3.6 Domain: Innovation Diffusion Through Institutions
Tools
We have:
o Conceptual models/ diagrams
o Commercial, natural resource, scenario modelling, visioning, vocabulary simulation.
o Robust future visioning and scenario modelling
o Innovation diffusion models
o Institutional frameworks (e.g., Lyn Ostrom, Managing the Commons)
We dont have:
o Metrics, models, data, exemplars, complex socio-ecological tools, understanding of
disturbance on systems, methods to ID innovations, factual innovation thru
institutions.
People and Place
Government organizations
Businesses
NGOs
Mixed organizational setting
Specialists and generalists
Material flows
Conceptual models are very compatible
Fund actor arrangements
ID objective fxn
Understand trade-offs
MAS-RPG

4.3.7 Domain: Urban Energy Usage / Demand
Tools
We have:
o RetScreen
o NEMSIM
o GENERSYS
o ESM
o ASFF
o Internal Electricity meters coming soon 2008
o E =Electricity +Gas +Oil +Renewables +Distributed
We dont have:
o Scalable models
o Energy demand models at city level and at any boundaries
o Energy, capability, finance, economic emissions at residential, commercial,
industrial
o Modelling transport long-distance options (rail, trucks, ships)
People and Place
Yum
Selwin
Xuemei
George
Simon
Common spatial databases
4.3.8 Domain: Rurban Systems Design
Tools
We have:
o Principled negotiation
o Citizen J uries
We dont have:
o Deliberative democratic tools and processes to enable informative agreement to
underpin planning
o Well thought through, informed, plausible future system options visually well
presented, easily digestive.
o Options for transitional pathways.
People and Place
Requires:
o System design and presentation Lab
o Network
o Involving science and designers/engineers
None.
4.3.9 Domain: Water and Gas Transport in Landscapes
Tools
We have:
o Hydrology models and tools
o Water demand models
o Piped network models
o Climate models
o ABMs
o Dynamic models
o CSS models
We dont have:
o Time and spatial scales often dont match
o Scale of some decisions
o Data limitations
o Scalling up and down
o Social systems modelling
o Poor delivery of results
o Visiualization of uncertainty and risk and errors
People and Place
CSE
CLW
WfHC
eWater CRC
ANU
State agencies
BoM
Universities (Melbourne, Griffith, US)
Environmental ecological services, etc
Indigenous communities
Desert Knowledge CRC
Standardize scenarios datasets
Ensemble model thinking
Uniformity at some scale
Understand the processes
Data errors!!
Models write indifferent languages
Time-steps, spatial scales, etc.

4.4 Crucial Questions
4.4.1 Introduction
In this exercise, the participants were asked to provide their feedback on identifying crucial research
and science questions that modelling and simulation in urban sustainability transitions should and can
be focusing in the future. Two sessions were explored: (a) specific research and scientific questions,
and; (b) provocative questions that have a significant potential to contribute to science impact.
4.4.2 Specific questions
What is an ontology of transitions to sustainable urban systems and regional systems?
Are transparent systems able to be improved by nested approaches?
How do we model for impact and real change?
Models take into account physical factors to measure and predict changes in cities. What
about emotional and spiritual impacts?
What skills would represent an optimal team to tackle urban/rural sustainability transitions
how multi-discipline do we need to be?
How we all access modelling software?
How can we link models across organizations (public/private/Unis)?
How much time before collapse?
Can we survive collapse? +what availability of life will survivors have?
How we can model everything?
What sort of future do we want? Options are:
o Advanced technological society which is ecologically sustainable?
o Mad Max scenario different groups with different levels of technology and investing
in arms and defend technology.
o Hunter-gatherer society ecologically sustainable
o Extinction
How to live in local urban environment with global connections?
How to initiate whole system response/change?
Is climate change or sustainability critical for urban or regional future?
Do we need to review and change the processes for delivering research?
Why dont we have models based on localized: economies, welfare, governance?
4.4.3 Provocative Propositions
Does peak oil +electric cars require nuclear power?
Why are the givens centralized: power, energy, industry/economy, governance, etc?
If things grow by a certain % cash year then they grow exponentially. If youre growing (e.g.,
an economy) exponentially, then leaving it until you are way to your limit is leaving it way
too late (because of exponential doubling).
With the increase in temperature, there is a real possibility for energy harvesting approaches.
Is this a direction we should be pursuing?
Peak oil will massively impact food and primary resource industries more human resources
will be used up in provision of basic human needs.
How can the dynamics between top-down and bottom-up processes be managed/manipulated
to facilitate the transition of the urban system to ecologically sustainable states?
How to integrate the function of urban, agricultural and natural ecosystems to attain ESD?
Do high rise high density construction and operation far exceed low rise on large blocks?
How does it affect the transport options?
Effect of divorce and later marriage what effect does this have on climate issues? Should
children live with the parents for long?
4.5 Graphical Linkages
4.5.1 Introduction
The SMURT participants were asked at the beginning of the workshop to contribute towards the
construction of a social network. Each participant was asked to record on the white space interactions
and their themes with other participants during the workshop. The white space was available to
participants at all times. Each circle (node) of the network represents an individual participant, whilst
each line connects any two participant nodes. Many of the participants recorded their interactions by
labelling the appropriate connection line with the theme of their interactions. The resulting social
network drawing is shown in the following Figure 12.

Figure 12: The SMURT social network drawn by the workshops participants.
The resulting graphical representation was transferred into a social network software (Batagelj and
Mvar, 1996; Borgatti et al., 2002) and an analysis was conducted. The results are shown in the
following section.
4.5.2 Social Network Analysis
The complete social network and the symmetrical (undirected) connections are shown in Figure 13.
Whilst the number of discussion themes among participants is very large (~108 themes), a
simplification approach was adopted for the analysis that facilitated visualization and grouping of the
network relations among nodes. Specifically, the discussion themes were post-classified into six
distinct categories: general discussion, methodological issues, issues of urban design, issues related to
social and socioeconomic research, environmental issues, and issues of engagement. The descriptions
of the classification scheme are shown in the following Table 6.


Table 6: A classification look-up table for the categorical assignment of connections among participant nodes.
Code Classification Description
1
General
(gray)
General themes of discussion. Includes non-specified themes.
2
Methodology
(red)
Discussion related to methodological issues of modelling and
methodology, as well as specific tools, theories and systemic and scale
interactions, such as system dynamics, ABM and BBN modelling,
engineering modelling, etc.
3
Design
(blue)
Discussion related to the urban design and form, such as buildings,
energy, water, transport and general types of infrastructure,
engineering concepts, particularly related to modelling and simulation
of urban sustainability transitions.
4
Society
(orange)
Discussion related to social, economic, demographic, socioeconomic,
cultural and cognitive themes related to modelling and simulation
approaches.
5
Environment
(green)
Discussion related to environmental themes and issues of modelling
and simulating urban and regional sustainability transitions, such as
climate change, water and natural resources, environmental modelling
themes, sustainability, resilience, etc.
6
Engagement
(magenta)
Discussion related to issues of engagement and empowerment in
modelling and simulation, such as communication issues, stakeholder
engagement, visualization and comprehension, community
empowerment, science integration, outreach, etc.

The classification scheme allowed for further analysis of the data in the resulting social network. The
network presents a rather clustered structure, shown in Figure 13. The different colour codes for the
arcs connecting the network nodes denote the different classifications shown in the previous table.

Figure 13: The SMURT participant social network graph-theoretic representation. The line colors represent
different types of connections (Gray =General, Red =Methodology, Blue =Design, Orange =Society, Green =
Environment, Magenta =Engagement).
In addition to the visual representation of the network, a series of key network metrics were computed,
and displayed below.
Table 7: Key social network metrics for the SMURT participant representation.
Metric Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Standard
Deviation
Variance Range Minimum Maximum
DegreeCentrality 6.29 0.54 6.00 3.20 10.27 12.00 1.00 13.00
Betweeness 18.97 3.17 12.10 18.73 350.72 76.36 0.00 76.36
Closeness 106.94 1.79 105.00 10.61 112.58 53.00 92.00 145.00
HarmonicCloseness 18.52 0.45 18.83 2.64 6.97 11.63 11.53 23.17
Eigenvector 0.15 0.01 0.16 0.08 0.01 0.30 0.01 0.31
Leverage 1.49 0.35 0.59 2.05 4.19 9.16 0.00 9.16
Prospectness 0.29 0.03 0.27 0.15 0.02 0.71 0.00 0.71
AlphaAttenuation(0.5) 8.79 0.28 9.06 1.64 2.70 7.22 4.28 11.50
Density 0.27 0.04 0.22 0.25 0.06 1.00 0.00 1.00
EffectiveSize 4.92 0.43 4.60 2.52 6.37 9.85 1.00 10.85
Constraint 0.29 0.03 0.23 0.18 0.03 0.87 0.13 1.00
Hierarchy 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.17 0.03 1.00 0.00 1.00
LengthBetweeness 5.90 1.84 2.00 10.88 118.33 61.11 0.00 61.11


Figure 14: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the General category of interactions.
Finally, the context-specific social networks by classification category are shown in the following
figures.


Figure 15: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Methodological (modelling,
simulation, particular tools and theories) category of interactions.
Figure 15 shows a relatively high degree of connectivity among the workshop participants and their
conversational/thematic interests related to methodological issues of modelling and simulation in
urban sustainability transitions. Nevertheless, it represents a relatively fragile network, as a type of
bottleneck network structure is observed. Enhanced communication and shared discussions
involving methodological issues could enhance network connectivity and present a more robust
scientific structure in the future.

Figure 16: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Design (engineering, transportation,
etc) category of interactions.
Figure 16 presents a more homogenous network around scientists that have a significant amount of
exposure for engineering types of modelling and perhaps more formal scientific disciplinary
background, but the small fragmented sessions showcase that more work is needed to bridge their
interests with the rest of the SMURT scientists group especially the ones with limited exposure to
engineering methodologies and modelling applications in urban regional transitions.

Figure 17: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Society (social, economic, cognitive,
etc) category of interactions.
Figure 17 represents the most extensive sub-network of participants, and showcases how socio-
economic issues are critical for simulation and modelling of urban and regional transitions research.
Two major sub-clusters of the network exist, and most likely reflect two different interests in socio-
economic modelling and simulation that interface and overlap: the need for modelling and strategic
approaches to theoretical and methodological research, and the need for simulation-specific
approaches that develop specific tools and applications for research.

Figure 18: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Environment (climate change,
environmental modelling, sustainability, etc) category of interactions.
Figure 18 shows a relatively close-clustered and looped network of participants, demonstrating the key
importance of environmental aspects of research related to environmental issues in simulation and
modelling urban sustainability. The closed loop allows for propagation and dissemination of ideas and
scientific/theoretical approaches to environmental sustainability. It also, in most likelihood
demonstrates a higher degree or ability to address environmental challenges across multiple
disciplines and research skills.

Figure 19: A social network representation of the SMURT participants for the Engagement (visioning, stakeholder
engagement, empowerment, communication, etc) category of interactions.

Figure 19 reconfirms the challenges faced during the fishbowl dialogue session. The high
fragmentation, lack of connectivity, and the small relative number of participants for the engagement
subnet shows that we have not been able to tackle the engagement and outreach challenges of our
research. Significant improvement and initiatives aimed to enhance this specific area of research
outreach are needed and most likely welcomed by both the scientists and the urban communities or
decision makers.
In summary, the social network analysis illustrates both strong and weak areas of the SMURT
research group, and can provide a useful roadmap and pathway to improve both the science quality
and impact within the scientific community, but also the interface between science, policy and the
wider society.

REFERENCES
REFERENCES
Batagelj, V., and Mvar, A. (1996). Pajek: Program for Large Network Analysis (Version 1.19, 2007) [Computer
Software]. Ljubljana, Slovenia: University of Ljubljana.
Borgatti, S. P., Everett, M. G., and Freeman, L. C. (2002). Ucinet 6 for Windows: Software for Social Network
Analysis (Version 6.125) [Computer Software]. Harvard: Analytic Technologies.
Freeman, R. T., and Yin, H. (2004). Adaptive topological tree structure for document organisation and
visualisation. Neural Networks, 17(8-9), 1255-1271.
Fruchter, R. (2005). Degrees of engagement in interactive workspaces. Ai & Society, 19(1), 8-21.
Leximancer. (2007). Leximancer Professional (Version 2.25). Brisbane, QLD: Leximancer Pty Ltd.
Mika, P. (2007). Ontologies are us: A unified model of social networks and semantics. Web Semantics: Science,
Services and Agents on the World Wide Web, 5(1), 5-15.
Shamsfard, M., and Barforoush, A. A. (2004). Learning ontologies from natural language texts. International
Journal of Human-Computer Studies, 60(1), 17-63.
Wikipedia. (2008). Fishbowl Conversation. from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fishbowl_(conversation)
Yankelovich, D. (2001). The Magic of Dialogue: transforming conflict into cooperation. New York: Touchtone
Books; Simon & Schuster.
Zhang, P., Sun, J., and Chen, H. (2005). Frame-based argumentation for group decision task generation and
identification. Decision Support Systems, 39(4), 643-659.

APPENDIX WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS
APPENDIX WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS
APPENDIX - WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS
STOKES - The Challenge of Coastal Growth
1. 1
2 Allan Stokes
The Challenge of Coastal Growth
2. Allan Stokes
The Challenge of The Challenge of
Coastal Growth Coastal Growth
Alan Stokes Alan Stokes
National Sea Change Taskforce National Sea Change Taskforce
December 2007 December 2007
TThe major challenges he major challenges
Infrastructure Infrastructure and services and services
Governance Governance
Tourism & Economic development Tourism & Economic development Tourism & Economic development Tourism & Economic development
Environment Environment
Communities Communities
Attraction to the Coast Attraction to the Coast
85% of Australians live under 50km 85% of Australians live under 50km
from the coast from the coast
25% ithi 3k 25% ithi 3k 25% within 3km 25% within 3km
Growth in coastal areas consistently Growth in coastal areas consistently
higher than the national average higher than the national average
Australias population Australias population 20.6 million 20.6 million
Capital cities Capital cities 13.1 m 13.1 m
Non Non metro Australia metro Australia 7 5 m 7 5 m Non Non--metro Australia metro Australia 7.5 m 7.5 m
Non Non- -metro metro coast coast 5.9 m 5.9 m
Australias population Australias population 20.6 million 20.6 million
Capital cities Capital cities 13.1 m 13.1 m
Non Non metro Australia metro Australia 7 5 m 7 5 m Non Non--metro Australia metro Australia 7.5 m 7.5 m
Non Non- -metro metro coast coast 5.9 m 5.9 m
79% of Australias non 79% of Australias non- -metro metro
population lives in coastal LGAs population lives in coastal LGAs
Coastal growth continues Coastal growth continues
Coastal population in 1996 Coastal population in 1996 - - 4.9 m 4.9 m
Coastal population in 2006 Coastal population in 2006 - - 5.9 m 5.9 m
Australias non Australias non- -metro coastal metro coastal
population increased by 1 million population increased by 1 million
Inland population declines Inland population declines
Inland population in 2005 Inland population in 2005 - - 1.9 m 1.9 m
Inland population in 2006 Inland population in 2006 - - 1.6 m 1.6 m
Australias inland population Australias inland population
declined by 16% in 12 months declined by 16% in 12 months
Coastal environment Coastal environment
Community Character Community Character Coastal Urbanisation Coastal Urbanisation
Future impact of baby boomers Future impact of baby boomers
National Sea Change National Sea Change T Taskforce askforce
FFormed to address the challenge ormed to address the challenge
Initiated by local government Initiated by local government not not
State or Federal government State or Federal government gg
Members cover 4 Members cover 4 million million Australians Australians
RResearch esearch needed needed to to broaden broaden
knowledge of the issue knowledge of the issue
Meeting the challenge Meeting the challenge
Coastal growth requires a Coastal growth requires a
coordinated national approach coordinated national approach
Collaboration of all tiers of Collaboration of all tiers of Collaboration of all tiers of Collaboration of all tiers of
government government
National policy framework National policy framework
Making Progress Making Progress
Coalition announced $200m Growing Coalition announced $200m Growing
Regions Plan Regions Plan
ALP announced integrated coastal ALP announced integrated coastal ALP announced integrated coastal ALP announced integrated coastal
policy policy
Victorian Coastal Spaces Plan Victorian Coastal Spaces Plan
ALP Coastal Plan ALP Coastal Plan
Caring for our Coasts Plan Caring for our Coasts Plan
announced by Peter Garrett announced by Peter Garrett
Commits an ALP Government to Commits an ALP Government to
providing national leadership on providing national leadership on
coastal management coastal management
$100 million in a five $100 million in a five--year year
Community Coast Care program. Community Coast Care program.
States: States:
The challenge associated with The challenge associated with
coastal growth, compounded by the coastal growth, compounded by the
impacts of global warming should be impacts of global warming should be impacts of global warming, should be impacts of global warming, should be
a national priority, with Federal a national priority, with Federal
Government leadership and Government leadership and
cooperation between all levels of cooperation between all levels of
government. government.
States: States:
Labor will work with the National Labor will work with the National
Sea Change Taskforce and other Sea Change Taskforce and other
stakeholders in developing broad stakeholders in developing broad stakeholders in developing broad, stakeholders in developing broad,
national principles for coastal national principles for coastal
management, consistent with its management, consistent with its
commitment to sustainable commitment to sustainable
development. development.
ALP Response to Survey ALP Response to Survey
The need for new infrastructure and The need for new infrastructure and
additional services in high growth areas to additional services in high growth areas to
meet the demands of our fast growing meet the demands of our fast growing
population is both urgent and ongoing. population is both urgent and ongoing.
Labor believes that the Commonwealth Labor believes that the Commonwealth
has a significant role to play in the has a significant role to play in the
provision of both economic and social provision of both economic and social
infrastructure to make our towns and infrastructure to make our towns and
cities more liveable and more responsive cities more liveable and more responsive
to the needs of the local community to the needs of the local community
A Rudd Labor Government will A Rudd Labor Government will
establish establish Infrastructure Australia Infrastructure Australia, a , a
Commonwealth Statutory Authority Commonwealth Statutory Authority
to be charged with the responsibility to be charged with the responsibility to be charged with the responsibility to be charged with the responsibility
of coordinating the planning, of coordinating the planning,
regulation and development of regulation and development of
infrastructure across Australia and infrastructure across Australia and
developing a strategic blueprint for developing a strategic blueprint for
our nations infrastructure needs. our nations infrastructure needs.
Infrastructure Australia will include Infrastructure Australia will include
representatives from all tiers of representatives from all tiers of
government, Commonwealth, State government, Commonwealth, State
and local as well as key and local as well as key and local, as well as key and local, as well as key
stakeholders, which will advise the stakeholders, which will advise the
Commonwealth on infrastructure Commonwealth on infrastructure
priorities priorities ALP response to Sea ALP response to Sea
Change Survey. Change Survey.
Contact details Contact details
www.seachangetaskforce.org.au www.seachangetaskforce.org.au
info@seachangetaskforce.org.au info@seachangetaskforce.org.au
Executive: 02 9904 0311 Executive: 02 9904 0311
KEARNS - CSE Urban Science: Prospects and Opportunities
2
Allen Kearns
CSE Urban Science:
Prospects and Opportunities
Allen Kearns
CSE Urban Science: Prospects and Opportunities
Allen Kearns
Sustainable Cities Research Leader
SMURT Workshop, Melbourne
5 December 2007
What Does Sustainability Mean for Cities?
Sustainability, in the contemporary sense, is
about managing our economic, social and
environmental resources in a way that
provides for our current needs, without
compromising the needs of future
CSIRO. Urban Research
compromising the needs of future
generations. In addition, it is about promoting
personal well-being, and resilient
communities with an ability to adapt to
change.
Source: www.sustainableliving.sa.gov.au
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems Sites
Atherton
Townsville
Darwin
Alice Springs
Ayr
Cairns
Brisbane
p g
Perth
Toowoomba
Canberra
Hobart
Adelaide
Melbourne
Sydney
Sustainable Cities Research
Theme Goal:
Revitalisation of Australias cities through new planning
and design technologies and integrated urban
infrastructure and management solutions, that when
adopted, will contribute to a 20% reduction in urban
resource use per person by 2020
resource use per person by 2020.
Research Themes
Agricultural Sustainability
Healthy Terrestrial Ecosystems
Sustainable Regional Development
Sustainable Cities
Research Inputs into Themes in CSIRO Flagships:
Water for a Healthy Country
Energy Transformed
Wealth from Oceans
Climate Adaptation
Research Streams
Sustainable Cities research is undertaken in
three streams:
Stream 1: High Performance Built Environments
Stream 2: Integrated Urban Design and Development
Stream 3: Transitioning to Sustainable and Healthier Cities
Research Directions
- High performance built environments
- Integrated urban design and development
- Transitions to sustainable and healthier cities
- Urban environments, food systems and human
h lthi iti ti ith A t li N ti l U i it
health initiative with Australian National University
- Working through partnerships with industry, universities,
government and communities in urban Australia
- Action research projects under development in
Melbourne, Canberra, Sydney, Brisbane and Asia
- International urban environmental research
linkages developing through the Resilience Alliance
Scale and Focus
The Sustainable Cities Theme is focused on research leading
to the sustainability of the nations urban landscapes, built
environments and associated urban and regional communities.
Spatial Scale
Neighbourhood/
Urban/Regional System
Water
E
Time
Material
Whole Building
Neighbourhood/
Subdivision
Development/Re
-development
Projects
Infrastructure Networks
Real Time
Assessment
(eg building
performance)
Near Real Time
Assessment
(eg Development
Approval)
Scenario: 6-18 months
Assessment (eg City
Plan; Future Urban
Water System, etc)
Key challenge is to
reduce time required for
inputs to decision-making
Energy
Climate
Development
Healthy Cities
Alarm bells for Australian cities from this years news
headlines and yesterdays discussions
- Energy prices and power security
- Water shortages and prolonged drought effects
- Climate change and the economy
- Health effects of urbanisation
- Time lost through poor transport infrastructure
- Inadequate investment in urban services
- Lack of affordable and sustainable housing
Urban Metabolism
Urban
Resources
Food
Energy
Water
Other Materials
Urban Systems
Structures and
Functions
Urban Land and Water
Urban Infrastructure
EcosystemServices
Industrial Processes
Urban Systems
Outputs
Industrial Products and
Services
Knowledge
W t dOth
Capital
Information
Distribution of Goods
Provision of Urban Services
Urban Governance
Urban Design and Development
Wastes and Other
Emissions
Urban Systems Indicators
Health and Well Being
Environmental Health
Culture and Heritage
Air and Water Pollution
Levels, Noise Levels etc.
Resource efficiency
from Linear to
Circular Flows
Three Big Challenges for Urban Sustainability
Adapting our urban way of life to living with
less oil in car-dependent cities and suburbs
Rejuvenating our existing buildings and
urban infrastructure to reduce resource use
per person by 20%by 2020
per person by 20% by 2020
Planning and design for improved health in
safe, attractive and secure urban
environments
Design Challenge: How do we achieve more
quality of life from less materials and energy?
Sustainable Ecosystems
Allen Kearns
Deputy Chief
Sustainable Cities Research Leader
Phone: 02 6242 1783
Email: allen.kearns@csiro.au
Web: www.cse.csiro.au
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au
Thank you
ALEXANDRIDIS & WANG - SMURT Goals and Challenges
3
Kostas Alexandridis &Xiaoming Wang
SMURT Goals and Challenges
Kostas Alexandridis & Xiaoming Wang
SMURTGoalsandChallenges
AnOverview
KostasAlexandridisand XiaomingWang
CSIROSustainableEcosystems
December5,2007
WhatkindofUrbantransitions?
Fast:changeshappeninunprecedentedratesandnumbers.
Diverse:changesoccuracrossmultiplespatialdomains urban,
suburban,periurban,exurban,regional.
Multidimensional:changesoccuracrossmanydimensions
social,economic,environmental,cultural.
C l h t i l li t d b t i h tl Complex:changesarenotsimplycomplicated,butinherently
complex interconnected,multifaceted,emergent,adaptive,
elusive.
Multijurisdictional:changesfallunderamultitudeof
administrative,politicalandinstitutionaljurisdictionsand
boundariesacross.
CSIROSustainableEcosystems. SMURT Workshop, Melbourne,December46,2007
Whatkindofscience?
SMURTstrivestoachieveitsgoalswithinanewkindofscience
paradigm.
Needtoestablishsciencethatinformspolicyinmeaningful,
constructiveandinnovativeways.
Sciencethatattemptstomanagethecomplexandestablish
urban sustainability and impact pathways for the future urbansustainabilityandimpactpathwaysforthefuture.
Sciencethatisinclusiveratherthanexclusive,multidimensional
ratherthanmonodimensional,proactiveratherthanreactive,
andvisionaryratherthanmanagerial.
Scienceasanessentialproponentofthesolutiontoour
contemporaryurbansustainabilitychallenges.
Sciencewith.
Anumbrella:
Shieldingfromnewcontemporary
challengesinurbanandregional
sustainability.
Ignoringthesustainability
transitionsanddynamicchanges
occurring in urban regions occurringinurbanregions.
Avoidingstrategicandlongterm
commitmenttoimpactsand
applicationstopolicy,planningand
management.
Acquiringatopdownviewof
urbansystemsandproblems
Sciencewith.
Anagenda:
Pursuingpredeterminedandfixed
goalsforsustainableurbanand
regionaldevelopment.
Influencingandinfluencedbypolicy
andmanagementtoachieveown
goals goals.
Ignoringcommunitiesandcollective
societalgoals.
Focusingonlyonbottomline
approachestosustainability.
Sciencewith.
Avision:
Focusingonstrategicdirections,both
atthebiophysicalandthehuman
dimensions
Allowingfortheinteractiveformation
ofpartnerships,alliancesand
collaborative approaches between collaborativeapproachesbetween
public,privateandinstitutional
domains.
Workacrossandwithinscalesfrom
thelocaltotheglobal.
Sensitivetothedynamicsofchange,to
communityandcollectiveaspirations
forthefuture.
Consideratetotheinterestsoffuture
generations.
Dowehavetobepassive?
ReproducedfromWindows on the World(RGS-IBG sponsoredproject)
orcanwebeproactive?
Reproducedfromhttp://www.hamilton-baillie.co.uk/articles.htm
TheSMURTContext
Fourpreliminaryquestions:
1. Whatdoyouseeasthemainchallenges forurban/regional
sustainabilityresearch?
2. Whatwouldbeappropriatescientificconceptsand
h d l i dd h h ll ? methodologies toaddressthesechallenges?
3. Whattools youwouldbelookingforinmodellingsimulation
ofurbanandregionaltransitions?
4. Howwecanensuretoaddresstheneedsofthekey
stakeholdersandtoeffectivelyimprovedecisionandpolicy
making processes?
SimplifiedContextAnalysis
Documentcontextanalysisusingunsupervisedconceptlearning
(Bayesian:Leximancer,2007).
Documents:
Introductorytext(1)
Individualtitlesandabstracts(23)
ResponsestoSMURTquestions(4)
Algorithmicdetails
Learningthreshold:paragraphleveliterations.
Learningcooccurrencecounts 3phraseseparation.
BothGaussianandLinearconditionalmappingproducesemanticallysimilar
results.
SimplifiedContentAnalysis
tools
models
simulation
techniques
models
policy
policy
key
urban
regional
i
n
development
systems
sustainability
development
approach
g
issues
sustainability
research economic
understanding
change
systems
interactions
necessity
complexity
social
n
t
e
g
r
a
t
i
o
n
application
ContentEntityFrequencies
Whatinformssustainability?
ContentRankingtoQuestions
Run Demonstration
RunDemonstration
SMURTWorkshop
41Participants
CSIRO:
SustainableEcosystems(CSE)
ComplexSystemsScience(CSS)
Mathematical&AtmosphericSciences(CMAR)
Land&Water(CLW)
M & I f i S (CMIS) Management&InformationSystems(CMIS)
Universities
UniversityofSouthAustralia
PurdueUniversity,USA
GriffithUniversity,QLD
QueenslandUniversityofTechnology
23talks/presentations
Resource Futures Program
Dr. Kostas Alexandridis
Regional Futures Analyst
Phone: 07 4753 8630
Fax: 07 4753 8650
Email: Kostas.Alexandridis@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au/people/Kostas.Alexandridis.html
Urban Systems Program
Dr. Xiaoming Wang
Principal Research Scientist
Phone: 03 9252 6328
Fax: 03 9252 6249
Email: Xiaoming.Wang@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au/people/Xiaoming.Wang.html
CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Thankyou
NEWMAN - Fundamentals of Urban and Regional Dynamics
4
Peter Newman
Fundamentals of Urban and
Regional Dynamics
Peter Newman
Fundamentals of Urban Fundamentals of Urban
and Regional Dynamics and Regional Dynamics
By By
Professor Peter Newman Professor Peter Newman
Curtin University Curtin University
Boom Town Perth 2050 Boom Town Perth 2050
Project by Professor Richard Project by Professor Richard Project by Professor Richard Project by Professor Richard
Weller and Professor David Weller and Professor David
Hedgecock. Scenarios for Hedgecock. Scenarios for
Perth based on spreading or Perth based on spreading or
stacking. stacking.
1. Broadacre City 1. Broadacre City Frank Lloyd Wright, Frank Lloyd Wright,
1930s 1930s
2. Garden City 2. Garden City Ebenezer Ebenezer
Howard, 1890s Howard, 1890s
3. Sea Change City 3. Sea Change City
3. Sea Change City 3. Sea Change City 4. Tree Change City 4. Tree Change City
4. Tree Change City 4. Tree Change City 5. Radiant City 5. Radiant City Le Corbusier Le Corbusier
5. Radiant City 5. Radiant City 6. Water City 6. Water City
6. Water City 6. Water City 6. Water City 6. Water City
7. Car Free City 7. Car Free City Some fundamentals. Some fundamentals.
1. 1. Constraints Constraints
2. 2. Travel time Travel time
3. 3. Infrastructure and density Infrastructure and density
4. 4. Politics Politics
Some fundamentals. Some fundamentals.
1. Cities are constantly remaking 1. Cities are constantly remaking
themselves based on new constraints themselves based on new constraints
which they either turn into new which they either turn into new
opportunities or they die opportunities or they die opportunities or they die. opportunities or they die.
Ephesus Ephesus 500,000 people, 500,000 people,
biggest Roman city in Asia Minor. biggest Roman city in Asia Minor.
Collapsed in 7th century. Collapsed in 7th century.
Babylon the greatest city of the Babylon the greatest city of the
ancient world for 2300 years ancient world for 2300 years
collapsed in 140 BC. collapsed in 140 BC.
Why do cities collapse? Why do cities collapse?
Jared Diamonds Collapse is Jared Diamonds Collapse is Jared Diamonds Collapse is Jared Diamonds Collapse is
when cities do not adapt to a deep when cities do not adapt to a deep
threat to their future, turning a threat to their future, turning a
constraint into an opportunity. constraint into an opportunity.
Economic constraints. Economic constraints.
Kondratiev cyclesbig scale Kondratiev cyclesbig scale
technological change. Now ET technological change. Now ET--IT and IT and
services followed by services followed by
sustainability/decarbonising cities sustainability/decarbonising cities sustainability/decarbonising cities. sustainability/decarbonising cities.
Economy of cities is based on copying Economy of cities is based on copying
innovations and modifying them for innovations and modifying them for
local conditions Jane Jacobs. local conditions Jane Jacobs.
Space constraints..
1/3
rd
of most cities is
bitumen.
2,500 people/hr - Freeway
llane.
8,000 people/hr - Bus lane.
10-20,000 people/hr - LRT
line
50,000 people/hr - Train
line.
If Sydney removed its train to the
CBD
You would need:
65 lanes of freeway
782 ha of car parks, or 1042 floors
of multi-storey car park of multi storey car park.
In reality business would scatter as in
other car dependent cities.
State Sustainability Strategy
Settlements Settlements
Resource constraints Resource constraints
Water Water unlikely to constrain any unlikely to constrain any
Australian coastal city. WSUD can Australian coastal city. WSUD can
shape cities. shape cities.
Carbon and Oil Carbon and Oil likely to constrain and likely to constrain and Carbon and Oil Carbon and Oil likely to constrain and likely to constrain and
shape cities. shape cities.
Global Average Temperature at Earth's Surface
(Land-Ocean Index), 1880-2003
13 60
14.00
14.40
14.80
e
s

C
e
l
s
i
u
s
12.80
13.20
13.60
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Source: GISS
D
e
g
r
e
e
Arctic sea ice extent 1978-2007
in millions of km2
(National Snow and Ice Data Center
Climate Climate
change change
threatens threatens
cities cities
and and
regions regions
Household greenhouse emissions
Source: Australian Greenhouse Office / CSIRO: National Kilowatt Count of Household EnergyUse, 2002
Carbon costs will impact most Carbon costs will impact most
on the household transport on the household transport
budget. budget.
Peak oil has the potential to Peak oil has the potential to
make this much worse make this much worse
Peak oil? Peak oil?
A growing number of oil A growing number of oil--industry industry
chieftains are endorsing an idea long chieftains are endorsing an idea long
deemed fringe: The world is approaching a deemed fringe: The world is approaching a
practical limit to the number of barrels of practical limit to the number of barrels of practical limit to the number of barrels of practical limit to the number of barrels of
crude oil that can be pumped every day. crude oil that can be pumped every day.
Russell Gold and Ann Davis Russell Gold and Ann Davis
Wall Street J ournal, November 19 Wall Street J ournal, November 19
th th
, 2007 , 2007
Peak oil has potential to cause Peak oil has potential to cause
immediate damage to cities as immediate damage to cities as
they collapse from their car they collapse from their car
dependence dependence
especially it can cause severe especially it can cause severe especially it can cause severe especially it can cause severe
social damage as it will hurt social damage as it will hurt
the poor most. the poor most.
Sub prime meltdown the first Sub prime meltdown the first
sign of this collapse sign of this collapse
Production cycle of an oil field
The Hubbert Peak The Hubbert Peak
Sci Amer 1971 Sci Amer 1971
The problem The problem
Demand for oil is increasing Demand for oil is increasing 22--3% per 3% per
year year, ,
Conventional oil production has Conventional oil production has
plateau plateau- -ed and is about to decline by ed and is about to decline by
5% per year 5% per year..
As oil price rises it reduces the ability As oil price rises it reduces the ability
to pay for car dependent housing to pay for car dependent housing
30
40
50
60
Demand
Industry
N l G
}
Buildings
Electric Power
Fig 2.3 How we use oil and natural gas & how this
may change as they peak in production
0
10
20
1930 1955 1980 2005 2030
Petrochemicals
Heating Oil
}
Oil
Jet Fuel
Diesel
Gasoline
Transport
Natural Gas
}
Collapse? Collapse?
Peakers sites on the web are Peakers sites on the web are
apocalypticeg apocalypticeg lifeafterthecrash.net; lifeafterthecrash.net;
dieoff com dieoff com dieoff.com dieoff.com
Collapse Collapse
Can happenand has, but Can happenand has, but
Awareness is increasing Awareness is increasing
A tipping point can happen very A tipping point can happen very
i kl li t h i kl li t h quickly, eg climate change. quickly, eg climate change.
Western civilization has adapted in the Western civilization has adapted in the
past past - - but this is a big one. but this is a big one.
Divided city? Divided city?
Wealthy eco Wealthy eco--enclaves surrounded by enclaves surrounded by
Mad Max suburbs Mad Max suburbs
Highly probable. Highly probable.
Oil Alternatives? Oil Alternatives?
Non Non- -conventional oil conventional oil deep sea. deep sea.
Natural gas Natural gas found in same formations found in same formations
as oil, also heading for peak. as oil, also heading for peak.
Biofuels Biofuels 12% of fuel from whole US 12% of fuel from whole US Biofuels Biofuels 12% of fuel from whole US 12% of fuel from whole US
grain crop; 20% Australia. Cellulose grain crop; 20% Australia. Cellulose
the holy grail the holy grail
Dirty oil Dirty oil tar sands, oil shale. tar sands, oil shale.
Coal to Liquids Coal to Liquids also very dirty. also very dirty.
Hydrogen. From what? Hydrogen. From what?
30
40
50
60
Demand
Biofuels
Electric Vehicles
Dirty Oil (tar sands, oil shale)
CTL
Hydrogen
Fig 7.1 How we may adapt to the peak in production
of oil & natural gas
0
10
20
1930 1955 1980 2005 2030
Natural Gas
Oil
Can only solve if the Can only solve if the
technological technological is integrated is integrated
into the into the design design of cities of cities
Some cities, parts of cities and Some cities, parts of cities and
regions, will do worse than regions, will do worse than
others others
UITP/ISTP Millenium City UITP/ISTP Millenium City
Database Database
Data are from a comparative study of 100 global cities Data are from a comparative study of 100 global cities
and involved 27 parameters using highly controlled and involved 27 parameters using highly controlled
processes to ensure comparability of data. processes to ensure comparability of data.
The study took 5 years and builds on previous data The study took 5 years and builds on previous data
collection since 1980. The 2005 data collection is collection since 1980. The 2005 data collection is
underway. underway.
Some data on the cities can be viewed on Some data on the cities can be viewed on
www.sustainability.murdoch.edu.au www.sustainability.murdoch.edu.au
16 cities were incomplete so mostly the data are of 84 16 cities were incomplete so mostly the data are of 84
cities. cities.
Private Passenger Transport Energy Use per Person,
1995
60000
80000
100000
120000
American
Australia/New Zealand
Canadian
Western European
High Income Asian
Eastern European
Middle Eastern
African
Low Income Asian
Latin American
0
20000
40000
A
t
la
n
t
a
H
o
u
s
t
o
n
D
e
n
v
e
r
S
a
n
F
r
a
n
c
is
c
o
S
a
n
D
ie
g
o
P
h
o
e
n
ix
L
o
s
A
n
g
e
le
s
W
a
s
h
in
g
t
o
n
C
h
ic
a
g
o
N
e
w
Y
o
r
k
C
a
lg
a
r
y
T
o
r
o
n
t
o
P
e
r
t
h
M
e
lb
o
u
r
n
e
V
a
n
c
o
u
v
e
r
B
r
is
b
a
n
e
S
y
d
n
e
y
O
t
t
a
w
a
M
o
n
t
r
e
a
l
R
iy
a
d
h
W
e
llin
g
t
o
n
G
e
n
e
v
a
O
s
lo
B
r
u
s
s
e
ls
F
r
a
n
k
f
u
r
t
R
o
m
e
H
a
m
b
u
r
g
N
a
n
t
e
s
S
t
o
c
k
h
o
lm
M
a
r
s
e
ille
Z
u
r
ic
h
R
u
h
r
L
y
o
n
N
e
w
c
a
s
t
le
M
u
n
ic
h
V
ie
n
n
a
S
t
u
t
t
g
a
r
t
G
la
s
g
o
w
P
a
r
is
D
u
s
s
e
ld
o
r
f
C
o
p
e
n
h
a
g
e
n
B
e
r
n
e
B
o
lo
g
n
a
G
r
a
z
T
e
l A
v
iv
M
a
d
r
id
A
t
h
e
n
s
L
o
n
d
o
n
S
a
p
p
o
r
o
M
ila
n
B
e
r
lin
A
m
s
t
e
r
d
a
m
M
a
n
c
h
e
s
t
e
r
B
a
n
g
k
o
k
K
u
a
la
L
u
m
p
u
r
J
o
h
a
n
n
e
s
b
u
r
H
e
ls
in
k
i
T
o
k
y
o
S
in
g
a
p
o
r
e
S
a
o
P
a
u
lo
O
s
a
k
a
T
a
ip
e
i
S
e
o
u
l
C
u
r
it
ib
a
P
r
a
g
u
e
B
u
d
a
p
e
s
t
B
a
r
c
e
lo
n
a
C
a
p
e
T
o
w
n
H
a
r
a
r
e
T
e
h
r
a
n
T
u
n
is
H
o
n
g
K
o
n
g
M
a
n
ila
C
r
a
c
o
w
J
a
k
a
r
t
a
B
e
ij
in
g
B
o
g
o
t
a
G
u
a
n
g
z
h
o
u
C
a
ir
o
C
h
e
n
n
a
i
S
h
a
n
g
h
a
i
M
u
m
b
a
i
D
a
k
a
r
H
o
C
h
i M
in
h
Cities
Latin American
Chinese
Urban Density, 1995 (Persons/Ha)
200
250
300
350
400
American
Canadian
Western European
High Income Asian
Eastern European
Middle Eastern
African
Low Income Asian
Latin American
Chinese
0
50
100
150
H
o
C
h
i M
in
h
C
it
y
M
u
m
b
a
i
H
o
n
g
K
o
n
g
C
a
ir
o
S
e
o
u
l
T
a
ip
e
i
M
a
n
ila
B
a
r
c
e
lo
n
a
S
h
a
n
g
h
a
i
J
a
k
a
r
t
a
B
a
n
g
k
o
k
C
h
e
n
n
a
i
B
e
ij
in
g
G
u
a
n
g
z
h
o
u
B
o
g
o
t
a
T
e
h
r
a
n
D
a
k
a
r
O
s
a
k
a
S
in
g
a
p
o
r
e
T
u
n
is
T
o
k
y
o
M
a
d
r
id
S
a
o
P
a
u
lo
M
ila
n
B
r
u
s
s
e
ls
T
e
l A
v
iv
S
a
p
p
o
r
o
C
a
p
e
T
o
w
n
A
t
h
e
n
s
V
ie
n
n
a
B
o
lo
g
n
a
L
o
n
d
o
n
S
t
u
t
t
g
a
r
t
C
r
a
c
o
w
M
a
r
s
e
ille
K
u
a
la
L
u
m
p
u
r
A
m
s
t
e
r
d
a
m
B
e
r
lin
R
o
m
e
M
u
n
ic
h
G
e
n
e
v
a
M
a
n
c
h
e
s
t
e
r
B
u
d
a
p
e
s
t
D
u
s
s
e
ld
o
r
f
P
r
a
g
u
e
F
r
a
n
k
f
u
r
t
P
a
r
is
L
y
o
n
Z
u
r
ic
h
R
iy
a
d
h
B
e
r
n
e
H
a
m
b
u
r
g
N
e
w
c
a
s
t
le
G
r
a
z
R
u
h
r
N
a
n
t
e
s
H
a
r
a
r
e
G
la
s
g
o
w
H
e
ls
in
k
i
M
o
n
t
r
e
a
l
O
t
t
a
w
a
C
u
r
it
ib
a
J
o
h
a
n
n
e
s
b
u
r
g
S
t
o
c
k
h
o
lm
C
o
p
e
n
h
a
g
e
n
T
o
r
o
n
t
o
L
o
s
A
n
g
e
le
s
O
s
lo
W
e
llin
g
t
o
n
V
a
n
c
o
u
v
e
r
C
a
lg
a
r
y
S
a
n
F
r
a
n
c
is
c
o
S
y
d
n
e
y
N
e
w
Y
o
r
k
C
h
ic
a
g
o
D
e
n
v
e
r
S
a
n
D
ie
g
o
W
a
s
h
in
g
t
o
n
M
e
lb
o
u
r
n
e
P
e
r
t
h
P
h
o
e
n
ix
B
r
is
b
a
n
e
H
o
u
s
t
o
n
A
t
la
n
t
a
Cities
Barcelona Barcelona
Private Transport Energy Use Private Transport Energy Use
Decreases as Density Increases Decreases as Density Increases
y =403914x
-0.8377
R
2
= 0.8483 50000
60000
70000
y

U
s
e

p
e
r

P
e
r
s
o
n

(
M
J
)
US Cities (diamond)
A =Auckland
C
W
A
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Urban Density (persons/ha)
P
r
iv
a
t
e

P
a
s
s
e
n
g
e
r

T
r
a
n
s
p
o
r
t

E
n
e
r
g
y
European Cities (X)
Asian Cities (asterisk)
Canadian Cities (cross)
Australian Cities (square)
New Zealand Cities (dot)
A Auckland
W =Wellington
C =Christchurch
ACTIVITY INTENSITY VERSUS PRIVATE CAR TRAVEL IN 5
HIGHER INCOME CITIES
y = 105866x
-0.6612
R
2
= 0.8165
15 000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 500.0
ACTIVITY INTENSITY (PERSONS + JOBS PER HA
PER CAPITA PASSENGER TRANSPORT ENERGY
USE VERSUS ACTIVITY INTENSITY IN SYDNEY
LGAs, 1981
y = 58290x
-0.285
R
2
= 0.6368
30000
35000
40000
45000
A

P
A
S
S
E
N
G
E
R

Y

U
S
E

(
M
J

P
E
R

)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0
ACTIVITY INTENSITY (PERSONS+JOBS PER HA)
A
N
N
U
A
L

P
E
R

C
A
P
I
T
A
T
R
A
N
S
P
O
R
T

E
N
E
R
G
Y
P
E
R
S
O
N
Activity Intensity and Transport Energy
Sydney2000
40
50
60
p
e
r

C
a
p
i
t
a
n
n
u
m
)
R
2
=0.6973
0
10
20
30
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Act ivit y Int ensit y (per ha)
E
n
e
r
g
y

U
s
e
r

p

(
G
J
/
a
n
Acti vi ty Intensi ty and Transport Energy
Melbourne
30
40
50
p
e
r

C
a
p
i
t
a
n
n
u
m
R
2
=0.5895
0
10
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Activity Intensity (per ha)
E
n
e
r
g
y

p
G
J
/
a
Acti vi ty Intensi ty and Transport Energy
Melbourne Suburban Areas
Cardinia(part)
Mornington 30
40
50
r

C
a
p
i
t
a
u
m
Port Phillip
Kingston
Maribyrnong
Hobsons Bay
Yarra
g
Peninsula
Stonnington
Knox
R
2
=0.549
0
10
20
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Activity Intensity (per ha)
E
n
e
r
g
y

p
e
r
G
J
/
a
n
n
Density Density
relates to relates to
infrastructure infrastructure

Proportion of Total Motorised Passenger Kilometres on
Public Transport, 1995
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
American
Canadian
Western European
High Income Asian
Eastern European
Middle Eastern
African
Low Income Asian
i i
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
M
u
m
b
a
i
D
a
k
a
r
C
h
e
n
n
a
i
H
o
n
g
K
o
n
g
S
h
a
n
g
h
a
i
B
o
g
o
t
a
O
s
a
k
a
C
r
a
c
o
w
T
o
k
y
o
H
a
r
a
r
e
B
u
d
a
p
e
s
t
B
e
ij
in
g
T
u
n
is
P
r
a
g
u
e
S
a
o
P
a
u
lo
J
a
k
a
r
t
a
G
u
a
n
g
z
h
o
u
S
in
g
a
p
o
r
e
C
a
ir
o
J
o
h
a
n
n
e
s
b
u
r
S
e
o
u
l
T
e
h
r
a
n
B
a
n
g
k
o
k
B
a
r
c
e
lo
n
a
R
o
m
e
M
a
n
ila
C
a
p
e
T
o
w
n
C
u
r
it
ib
a
M
u
n
ic
h
B
e
r
lin
B
e
r
n
e
L
o
n
d
o
n
H
e
ls
in
k
i
V
ie
n
n
a
P
a
r
is
T
a
ip
e
i
Z
u
r
ic
h
M
ila
n
M
a
d
r
id
B
r
u
s
s
e
ls
S
a
p
p
o
r
o
S
t
o
c
k
h
o
lm
T
e
l A
v
iv
G
r
a
z
C
o
p
e
n
h
a
g
e
n
A
m
s
t
e
r
d
a
m
N
e
w
c
a
s
t
le
S
t
u
t
t
g
a
r
t
O
s
lo
H
a
m
b
u
r
g
A
t
h
e
n
s
F
r
a
n
k
f
u
r
t
D
u
s
s
e
ld
o
r
f
T
o
r
o
n
t
o
M
a
n
c
h
e
s
t
e
r
S
y
d
n
e
y
M
o
n
t
r
e
a
l
R
u
h
r
K
u
a
la
L
u
m
p
u
r
N
a
n
t
e
s
G
la
s
g
o
w
M
a
r
s
e
ille
G
e
n
e
v
a
O
t
t
a
w
a
N
e
w
Y
o
r
k
B
o
lo
g
n
a
M
e
lb
o
u
r
n
e
W
e
llin
g
t
o
n
C
a
lg
a
r
y
V
a
n
c
o
u
v
e
r
L
y
o
n
H
o
C
h
i M
in
h
B
r
is
b
a
n
e
P
e
r
t
h
W
a
s
h
in
g
t
o
n
S
a
n
F
r
a
n
c
is
c
o
C
h
ic
a
g
o
L
o
s
A
n
g
e
le
s
A
t
la
n
t
a
R
iy
a
d
h
D
e
n
v
e
r
S
a
n
D
ie
g
o
H
o
u
s
t
o
n
P
h
o
e
n
ix
Cities
Latin American
Chinese
Ratio of Public to Private Transport Speed, 1995
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
American
Canadian
Western European
High Income Asian
Eastern European
Middle Eastern
African
Low Income Asian
Latin American
Chinese
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
T
o
k
y
o
O
s
a
k
a
M
u
m
b
a
i
H
a
m
b
u
r
g
M
u
n
ic
h
C
a
ir
o
S
e
o
u
l
M
a
r
s
e
ille
L
o
n
d
o
n
P
r
a
g
u
e
S
y
d
n
e
y
F
r
a
n
k
f
u
r
t
O
s
lo
C
a
p
e
T
o
w
n
V
ie
n
n
a
P
a
r
is
Z
u
r
ic
h
S
t
u
t
t
g
a
r
t
B
e
r
lin
B
e
ij
in
g
H
o
n
g
K
o
n
g
D
u
s
s
e
ld
o
r
f
R
u
h
r
N
e
w
Y
o
r
k
S
t
o
c
k
h
o
lm
C
h
e
n
n
a
i
R
o
m
e
S
a
p
p
o
r
o
H
a
r
a
r
e
A
t
h
e
n
s
T
e
h
r
a
n
T
a
ip
e
i
J
o
h
a
n
n
e
s
b
u
r
g
H
e
ls
in
k
i
B
r
is
b
a
n
e
B
r
u
s
s
e
ls
W
a
s
h
in
g
t
o
n
G
la
s
g
o
w
H
o
C
h
i M
in
h
C
it
y
B
a
r
c
e
lo
n
a
C
h
ic
a
g
o
V
a
n
c
o
u
v
e
r
B
e
r
n
e
G
u
a
n
g
z
h
o
u
C
o
p
e
n
h
a
g
e
n
G
e
n
e
v
a
C
r
a
c
o
w
L
y
o
n
W
e
llin
g
t
o
n
S
a
o
P
a
u
lo
M
ila
n
J
a
k
a
r
t
a
D
a
k
a
r
B
a
n
g
k
o
k
P
e
r
t
h
S
in
g
a
p
o
r
e
M
a
d
r
id
R
iy
a
d
h
N
a
n
t
e
s
K
u
a
la
L
u
m
p
u
r
M
e
lb
o
u
r
n
e
S
h
a
n
g
h
a
i
G
r
a
z
M
a
n
ila
S
a
n
F
r
a
n
c
is
c
o
M
o
n
t
r
e
a
l
B
o
lo
g
n
a
A
m
s
t
e
r
d
a
m
A
t
la
n
t
a
N
e
w
c
a
s
t
le
C
u
r
it
ib
a
C
a
lg
a
r
y
M
a
n
c
h
e
s
t
e
r
O
t
t
a
w
a
B
o
g
o
t
a
P
h
o
e
n
ix
D
e
n
v
e
r
T
e
l A
v
iv
B
u
d
a
p
e
s
t
T
o
r
o
n
t
o
L
o
s
A
n
g
e
le
s
T
u
n
is
H
o
u
s
t
o
n
S
a
n
D
ie
g
o
Cities
Chinese
Length of Freeway per Capita, 1995 (metres)
0.15
0.2
0.25
American
Canadian
Western European
High Income Asian
Eastern European
Middle Eastern
African
Low Income Asian
Latin American
Chinese
0
0.05
0.1
W
e
llin
g
t
o
n
H
o
u
s
t
o
n
A
t
la
n
t
a
D
e
n
v
e
r
S
a
n
D
ie
g
o
P
h
o
e
n
ix
M
e
lb
o
u
r
n
e
C
a
lg
a
r
y
B
r
is
b
a
n
e
B
e
r
n
e
F
r
a
n
k
f
u
r
t
H
e
ls
in
k
i
S
a
n
F
r
a
n
c
is
c
o
R
o
m
e
M
o
n
t
r
e
a
l
O
t
t
a
w
a
R
iy
a
d
h
W
a
s
h
in
g
t
o
n
S
t
o
c
k
h
o
lm
N
a
n
t
e
s
D
u
s
s
e
ld
o
r
f
C
o
p
e
n
h
a
g
e
n
S
t
u
t
t
g
a
r
t
N
e
w
Y
o
r
k
Z
u
r
ic
h
R
u
h
r
N
e
w
c
a
s
t
le
L
o
s
A
n
g
e
le
s
A
m
s
t
e
r
d
a
m
M
a
d
r
id
C
h
ic
a
g
o
G
la
s
g
o
w
T
o
r
o
n
t
o
V
a
n
c
o
u
v
e
r
O
s
lo
T
e
l A
v
iv
G
r
a
z
K
u
a
la
L
y
o
n
M
ila
n
P
a
r
is
G
e
n
e
v
a
S
y
d
n
e
y
P
r
a
g
u
e
M
a
n
c
h
e
s
t
e
r
B
o
lo
g
n
a
C
a
p
e
T
o
w
n
H
a
m
b
u
r
g
M
u
n
ic
h
S
in
g
a
p
o
r
e
P
e
r
t
h
M
a
r
s
e
ille
A
t
h
e
n
s
B
a
r
c
e
lo
n
a
B
r
u
s
s
e
ls
T
e
h
r
a
n
V
ie
n
n
a
C
r
a
c
o
w
O
s
a
k
a
S
a
p
p
o
r
o
B
e
r
lin
J
o
h
a
n
n
e
s
b
u
r
T
u
n
is
S
e
o
u
l
B
a
n
g
k
o
k
H
o
n
g
K
o
n
g
B
u
d
a
p
e
s
t
T
a
ip
e
i
C
h
e
n
n
a
i
T
o
k
y
o
S
a
o
P
a
u
lo
L
o
n
d
o
n
J
a
k
a
r
t
a
B
e
ij
in
g
M
a
n
ila
D
a
k
a
r
S
h
a
n
g
h
a
i
C
a
ir
o
G
u
a
n
g
z
h
o
u
H
o
C
h
i M
in
h
H
a
r
a
r
e
C
u
r
it
ib
a
B
o
g
o
t
a
M
u
m
b
a
i
Cities
2. Cities are always shaped by the travel 2. Cities are always shaped by the travel
time budget of 1 hour per person per time budget of 1 hour per person per
day. day.
How transport priorities shape cities
MARCHETTI CONSTANT
The average travel time budget is
around one hour per person per
dday.
(i.e. half an hour average for the journey to
work).
Found to apply across the world and
throughout urban history. Biological base.
This means?
THE CITY IS ALWAYS ONE HOUR WIDE.
And people will use the modes that keep them
Bossley Park
CITY LIMITS..sprawl has hit the wall.
The Marchetti constant means that when a
city grows beyond its one hour wide size it
will begin to become
dysfunctional.depending on its average
speed and its density. 100/ha and 40 kph can
go to 12 million; 10/ha and 50 kph can only go
to 2 million.
Auto dependent cities are reaching the limits
of car-based sprawl.
Result: road rage, anti-sprawl movements,
market-based re-urbanisation especially
Marchetti is forcing us into
a new city form based on
centres and public transport
New city form?
-
re-creating a series of
Transit Cities within the
region.
It is also assisted by the
new global city economy
Australian Cities Plans Australian Cities Plans
All based on: All based on:
Sustainability and overcoming car Sustainability and overcoming car
dependence. dependence.
Centres and corridors. Centres and corridors.
Transit over highways. Transit over highways.
Centres and corridors Centres and corridors
Sydney Metropolitan Sydney Metropolitan
Strategy Strategy
Model of the city showing centres and corridors Model of the city showing centres and corridors
Maximum Transit City Distances Maximum Transit City Distances
30 km
30 km
30 km
20 km
20 km
20 km
Joyce-Collingwood Station Precinct: An example of the kind of centres
required around transit to reduce car dependence. These are contemporary
walking cities linked to transit.
So, transport priorities shape cities: So, transport priorities shape cities:
People move to take advantage of time People move to take advantage of time
savings, within their means. (TODs savings, within their means. (TODs
save 20% of household income as dont save 20% of household income as dont
need 2 cars) need 2 cars) need 2 cars). need 2 cars).
As long as the planning system allows As long as the planning system allows
the land use to develop around the the land use to develop around the
transport options. transport options.
3. Overcoming car dependence requires 3. Overcoming car dependence requires
the public transport infrastructure and the public transport infrastructure and
the density in centres..to enable the density in centres..to enable
sufficient people to live within sufficient people to live within sufficient people to live within sufficient people to live within
Marchetti limits and not need a car Marchetti limits and not need a car
as much. as much.
ISTP project to explain transport ISTP project to explain transport
patterns by local govt area in patterns by local govt area in
Melbourne and Sydney: Melbourne and Sydney:
Distance to CBD Distance to CBD explains most, 76%M and explains most, 76%M and
70%S. 70%S. y = x/10 + 3, where y is the transport y = x/10 + 3, where y is the transport
greenhouse gas in kg of CO2 per person per greenhouse gas in kg of CO2 per person per
day, and x is the kms from the CBD day, and x is the kms from the CBD y, y,
Intensity of activity Intensity of activity (people and jobs per ha) (people and jobs per ha)
explains 56%M and 71%S. explains 56%M and 71%S.
Access to Transit Access to Transit (% of area with high quality (% of area with high quality
access to public transport) explains 61%M and access to public transport) explains 61%M and
58%S. 58%S.
Heavily linked. Heavily linked.
Australian Planner Australian Planner 43 (2): 6 43 (2): 6- -7 2006 7 2006
Access to Public Transport Access to Public Transport
Transport energy constrained Transport energy constrained
future will favour future will favour
Redevelopment closer to the city. Redevelopment closer to the city.
Dense centres linked by good transit. Dense centres linked by good transit.
How dense should centres be How dense should centres be
to become viable? to become viable?
Opolis Opolis 2006 vol2 no1 2006 vol2 no1 Opolis Opolis 2006 vol2 no1 2006 vol2 no1
Activity Intensity and Transport Energy
Sydney2000
40
50
60
p
e
r

C
a
p
i
t
a
n
n
u
m
)
R
2
=0.6973
0
10
20
30
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Act ivit y Int ensit y (per ha)
E
n
e
r
g
y

U
s
e
r

p

(
G
J
/
a
n
35 people and jobs per ha is 35 people and jobs per ha is
how traditional transit cities how traditional transit cities
were built and how the best were built and how the best
centres are today. centres are today.
Means 10,000 people and jobs Means 10,000 people and jobs
within 1km radius of the centre within 1km radius of the centre
If you dont build to this If you dont build to this
density density
You have to fill the area with car parks. You have to fill the area with car parks.
100 people and jobs per ha 100 people and jobs per ha
is how traditional walking is how traditional walking
cities were and how strong cities were and how strong
walkable centres are today. walkable centres are today.
Means 100,000 people and Means 100,000 people and
jobs within 1 km of centre. jobs within 1 km of centre.
4. Politics drives everything.so 4. Politics drives everything.so
engagement brings change, not just engagement brings change, not just
ideas. ideas.
OVERCOMING AUTOMOBILE
DEPENDENCE IN ASIAN CITIES
Supplementary policies on traffic demand
management, parking restrictions, congestion
taxes. can all help, but will be reduced to
marginal exercises unless the structure of the
city is addressed in terms of the relative speed
of traffic compared to sustainable transport
modes.
New southern line will complete 180 New southern line will complete 180
kms of electric rail with 72 stations in kms of electric rail with 72 stations in
20 years 20 years
Politics is Politics is
everything everything

Participatory engagement Participatory engagement
techniques techniques
21 21
st st
Century Town Meetings. Century Town Meetings. For strategy For strategy
direction. Key: 1/3 direction. Key: 1/3
rd rd
non non--aligned citizens. aligned citizens.
Charettes. Charettes. For details of TODs on the ground. For details of TODs on the ground.
Breaks traffic engineers mould. Breaks traffic engineers mould.
Citi J i Citi J i F t ti i F t ti i Citizens Juries. Citizens Juries. For contentious issues. For contentious issues.
MCA Workshops. MCA Workshops. For siting choices. For siting choices.
www.21stcenturydialogue.com www.21stcenturydialogue.com
Reclaiming the North American Reclaiming the North American
city from car dependence city from car dependence
Canadian cities like Toronto led the way in Canadian cities like Toronto led the way in
1960s and 70s showing that freeways 1960s and 70s showing that freeways
werent needed and werent needed and good transit with good good transit with good
public spaces was. public spaces was.
Portland showed it was possible in the US Portland showed it was possible in the US Portland showed it was possible in the US. Portland showed it was possible in the US.
Most US cities now pursuing less car Most US cities now pursuing less car
dependence dependence
Vancouver has shown something special Vancouver has shown something special
City of City of
Vancouver Vancouver
30,000 fewer 30,000 fewer
car trips per car trips per
day day
100,000 100,000
more more
walk/cycle walk/cycle
t i d t i d
Mostly by high rise residential Mostly by high rise residential
estates attractive to families. estates attractive to families.
trips per day trips per day
15 to 30% in 15 to 30% in
15 years. 15 years.
How? How?
How is this done? High density How is this done? High density
but good street level design but good street level design
Requiring 5% of the value of a Requiring 5% of the value of a
development to be social development to be social
infrastructure.landscaped open infrastructure.landscaped open
space public art community centres space public art community centres space, public art, community centres, space, public art, community centres,
schools, arts facilities schools, arts facilities
Chosen by communities whenever a Chosen by communities whenever a
new development is planned. new development is planned.
An An
example example example example
Coal Coal
Harbour Harbour
Final Case Study: Final Case Study:
Vauban Frieburg Vauban Frieburg
Eco Eco--village with car village with car--
free housing. free housing.
The new resilient, The new resilient,
sustainable, solar sustainable, solar
city demonstrations city demonstrations
will be the global will be the global
leaders in innovation. leaders in innovation.
CAMBPELL - M&S Requirements to Support Understanding of Sustainable Socio-Technical Systems
5
Peter Campbell
M&S Requirements and Techniques to
Support Understanding of Sustainable
Socio-Technical Systems
Peter Campbell
M&S Requirements and
Techniques to Support
Understanding of Sustainable g
Socio-Technical Systems
A. P. Campbell
Defence and Systems Institute
University of South Australia
Introduction - 1
What do we need to understand in order to
reliably build large sustainable socio-
technical systems?
Understand state changes of all the important
components
This understanding must be developed in the
context of the interaction between each and
all of the components, often over long periods
of time
Particular interest in social systems modelling
Introduction - 2
Some of the hallmarks of societal processes are
as follows.
Processes involve some level of cooperation among the agents
involved (though coercive behavior patterns are also possible).
Agents may be concurrently involved in several behavior
patterns and may need to prioritize their interactions and
commitments to participate in these patterns.
Behavior patterns can branch to follow several alternative paths
and may segue into other patterns, based on social context.
Processes can be interrupted and resumed at a later time.
Processes can be preempted in progress, or be scheduled to
occur but then be cancelled before they begin.
Introduction - 3
M&S provides a means for gaining some of
the understanding we need of these systems
Examples of Socio-technical systems
Large infrastructure programs, such as roads, g p g
water, power
Agriculture
Urban renewal, new urban development
Coral reef protection schemes
National park enhancement and management
Steps to be Followed - 1
The most difficult part
Choose and set the boundaries
Choose and set the level of abstraction of the
entities that will work bestin addressing the entities that will work best in addressing the
issues and understanding the system of
systems
Develop the conceptual design
Steps to be Followed - 2
Test the conceptual design with use case
analysis
Users/stakeholders need to be included, but
different presentation modes may be needed different presentation modes may be needed
Examine usability, do-ability, data availability,
stakeholder perceptions
The following list of desirable characteristics
that a simulation system should have would
be ideal!!
M&S System Capabilities - 1
Probably be Agent Based as this seems to
provide the easiest path to dynamically
linking physical, biological, social and
economic models within a single economic models within a single
simulation framework, for enabling the use
of wrappers to incorporate existing models
in the framework and for ease of mounting
on MPI multi-processors for large
applications.
M&S System Capabilities -2
Use a time ordered event queue
Represents time scales of all components in a
more natural way than some other
approaches pp
Be driven by a context manager with
sufficient flexibility to allow the user to
relatively easily set up a large range of
possible future contexts
Be capable of representing the system
components at different levels of
granularity, depending on the analysis
context, data availability, etc.
Be capable of easily modelling important
behaviours with different models,
depending on context, simulation time,
possible political/social changes, data
availability, etc
Be able to provide an audit trail to assist
understanding and analysis
Be capable of the dynamic re-
configurationof models to change the configuration of models to change the
state of the agents, depending on context
Provide full dynamic spatial
representations of selectable agents,
including depicting state changes
Use XML or similar data input, so that
representing different data sets and
perhaps different interpretations of the
data sets is relativelyeasy ( Eventually data sets is relatively easy. ( Eventually
one would like to develop ontologies that
are sufficiently comprehensive that non-
programmers can use drop and drag
builds.)
Be capable of representing social
behaviours using tools such as
BOD/POSH and or FACET
For most of the simulationsystems we For most of the simulation systems we
build, enumerating the transitions between
states is too hard, if not impossible
Behaviour Oriented Design/Parallel rooted
Ordered Slip-stack Hierarchical action
selection (POSH)
Bryson, J. J. (2001). Intelligence by Design: Principles of
Modularity and Coordination for Engineering Complex Adaptive Modularity and Coordination for Engineering Complex Adaptive
Agents.
PhD thesis, MIT, Department of EECS, Cambridge, MA.
AI Technical Report 2001-003.
Bryson, J. J. (2003). The behavior-oriented design of modular
agent intelligence.
In Kowalszyk, R., Mller, J. P., Tianfield, H., and Unland, R., editors,
Agent Technologies, Infrastructures, Tools, and Applications for e-
Services, pages 61-76. Springer.
POSH has been extended as the Enhanced
Shared Reactive Plan (ESReP) for use with the
Repast Simphony agent-based discrete event
simulation system.
Framework for Addressing Cooperative
Extended Transactions (FACET)
Dolph, J .E.; J .H. Christiansen; and P.J . Sydelko. 2000. FACET:
An Object-Oriented Software Framework for Modeling Complex
Behavior Patterns. Proceedings of the 4th International
Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling
(Banff, Canada, Sept. 2-8).
Include easy to link in modules for
employing GAs, ANNS, SA, Monte Carlo,
Systems Dynamics, etc. packages so that
behaviours can be generatedby many behaviours can be generated by many
different methods
Have a version that can be readily
employed in participatory modelling
Some Example Simulations that
Employ Some of these Capabilities
Fort Future Virtual Installation (FFVI) software tool
developed for the U.S. Army Construction Engineering
Research Laboratory (CERL). The FFVI models decision
makers as agents within the simulation, where the
agents interface with each other and their environment to
carry out complex and sometimes competing plans. The
FFVI i hi hl fl ibl lti l d i i ki FFVI is a highly flexible multi-scale decision-making
model that simultaneously includes:
Individual and group-based task execution
Reactive contingency plans to internal, external, and disruptive
events
Local facility usage, transport networks, and utilities
Simulation of interdependencies between infrastructure
modules
Resource contention
Some Example Simulations that
Employ Some of these Capabilities
These examples are drawn from some of
the work done at Argonne National
Laboratory or currentlyin progress there Laboratory, or currently in progress there
Dynamic Process Interactions: Scale and Scope
INTERDICTOR
PROCESSES
DRUG
TRAFFICKER
PROCESSES
M
A
C
R
O
S
C
A
L
E
OTHER
NATURAL
AND SOCIETAL
PROCESSES
scale ~
strategic
Argonne National Laboratory
M
E
S
O
S
C
A
L
E
MICROSCALE
scale ~
operational
scale ~
tactical
Process interactions
tend to occur at
comparable scales
CASCADE-CD Dynamic Processes: Scale and Scope
STRATEGIC
PLANNING:
Evolve Force Structure
Evolve Doctrine
Diplomatic Initiatives
STRATEGIC
PLANNING:
Evolve Business Alliances
Reorient Infrastructure
Evolve
Perception of
Smuggling
Traffic Pattern,
Evolve Export
Operations
Argonne National Laboratory
Traffic Pattern,
Volume
Select,
Schedule
Export
Missions
Evolve
Perception of
Interdiction
Threat
Evolve
Operations
Stances;
Evolve Tactics
Prosecute
Track
Schedule
Patrols
Execute
Patrol
Select
Operations
Stance
Exec.
Export
Missi on
Source
Zone
Business
Practices
Stances
and
Mission Profiles
Select
Export
Operations
Stance
Sen-
sing
Mvmt.
Comm
Operations Stance:
Set of dimensionless parameters
defining an operations plan
etc.
Operations Stance:
Set of dimensionless parameters
defining an operations plan
Process descriptions in italics
are stubbed for Phase 3
Person Object Class HealthSim FACET Models for Cardiac Care
Social Pattern Models for Key
Agricultural Processes
EMCAS Agents Make Decisions in a Complex and
Multidimensional Environment
This layer models bilateral
contracts markets
This layer is used to
simulate day-ahead pool
markets for energy and
ancillary services
This layer allows users to
modify market rules
This layer provides for a
detailed transmission
grid representation
Uses a DC-OPF load flow
analysis to dispatch
system to meet load
This layer tracks revenues
of transmission and
distribution companies
contracts markets
EMCAS Agents Make Different Types of Decisions
at Different Planning Horizons
Long-Term Planning
Mul ti-Year Planning
Year Ahead Planning
Yr1 Yr1 Yr2 Yr2 Yr3 Yr3 Yr4 Yr4 Yr5 Yr5 Yr6 Yr6
Month Ahead Pl anning
Long-Term Planning
Mul ti-Year Planning
Year Ahead Planning
Yr1 Yr1 Yr2 Yr2 Yr3 Yr3 Yr4 Yr4 Yr5 Yr5 Yr6 Yr6
Month Ahead Pl anning
Company objectives and
business strategies
GenCo - maintenance schedule,
contracts
DemCo - contracts
Consumer - price response
G C
Company strategies
Long-term expansion
Real Time Di spatch
H1 H1 H5 H5 H10 H10 H15 H15 H20 H20 H25 H25
Day Ahead Planning
D1 D1 D8 D8
Week Ahead Pl anning
W1 W1 W5 W5 W9 W9 W13 W13
M1 M1 M3 M3 M5 M5 M7 M7 M9 M9 M11 M11 M13 M13 M15 M15
Real Time Di spatch
H1 H1 H5 H5 H10 H10 H15 H15 H20 H20 H25 H25
Day Ahead Planning
D1 D1 D8 D8
Week Ahead Pl anning
W1 W1 W5 W5 W9 W9 W13 W13
M1 M1 M3 M3 M5 M5 M7 M7 M9 M9 M11 M11 M13 M13 M15 M15
GenCo - contracts
DemCo - contracts
GenCo - unit commitment
DemCo - load forecast
Pool market bidding
ISO/RTO/ITP system dispatch
Payment settlements
calculated
GenCo - contracts
GenCo hydro planning
DemCo contracts
BAI - The Process and Mechanism of Urban Transition
6a
Xuemei Bai
The Process and Mechanism of
Urban Transition:
An Evolutionary Perspective
Xuemei Bai
The Process and Mechanism of
Urban Transition: An Evolutionary
Perspective
Xuemei Bai, Dec.5, 2007
Xuemei Bai
Number of Cities in China
300
400
500
600
700
800
m
b
e
r

o
f

C
i
t
i
e
s
0
100
200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
N
u
m
(Source: China City Development in 50 Years)
System Boundary: Tokyo Metropolitan Region
Water
55%
Storm water
Infiltration
Industries
11.2%
Current Status
Nitrogen Flows in and out of Tokyo
(Source: Modified based on Kawaguchi and Bai 2003)
Food
Human
Consumption
Sewage
Treatment
Plant
Atmosphere
Landfill
98%
88.8%
35%
10%
Foodmileageandnumber of itemsof Yale dining service
Current Status
Why Transition?
Understanding dynamic and complex
feature of urban environment
Complexity: within the same city
Diversity: differences among cities
Dynamics:
Dynamics:
changing significance of a certain issue
structural change
Unique opportunities presented by the
dynamic nature: the possibility of policy
and management intervention to change
future environmental trajectory
Research Questions To Be Answered
What are the commonalities and
Heterogeneities in urban environment?
How it can be abstracted and expressed as a
theoretical model?
What are underlying mechanisms of these
change?
How can the developed theory contribute to
practice?
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
S
O
x (p
p
m
)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
C
O
C
o
n
c
e
n
tr
a
tio
n
(p
p
m
)
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
io
n
s
o
f to
n
s
)
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
e
r
T
r
e
a
te
d
o
f to
n
s)
SO
2
CO
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
S
o
lid
W
a
s
te
(m
illi
0.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
S
e
w
a
g
e
W
a
te
(m
illio
n
s o
Solid WasteGeneration
SewageWater Treatment
Trends in Environmental Indicators in Tokyo
(Source: Bai, 2003)
SO2 concentration in Korean and J apanese cities
0150
0.200
0.250
0.300
t
i
o
n

(
m
g
/
m
3
)
0.000
0.050
0.100
0.150
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
S
O
2

c
o
n
c
e
n
t
r
a
t
(Source: Bai, 2003)
1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960
Ulsan
Ansan
Ube
Korea
J apan
China
Shenzhen
Dalian
J iangyin
Tangerang
Kitakyushu
Indonesia
J apan
Legend
Movement Towards Eco-city
Poverty Related Issues Dominant
Industrial Production Issues Dominant
Consumption Related Issues Dominant
Transition of Dominant
Urban Environmental
Issues in Case Study Cities
(Source: Bai, 2001)
Environmental
Impact
Poverty
related
issues
Production
related issues
Consumption
related issues
Stage I Stage II Stage III
Stage IV
Economic
Development
Past and Present
Future
Fig. 5-1 Conceptual illustration of a typical evolutionary trajectory of
environmental problems in developed country cities, and an optimistic
future projection in relation to economic development (Bai et al, 2000)
Strong non-linearity:
Shape. Relative length of each stage, and the
overlapping pattern can be significantly different
Structural differences, e.g. under certain
circumstances cities might skip one or more stages
and not necessarily follow all four stages
sequentially
Other factors that contribute to non-linearity,
e.g.functional division of cities, catastrophic
events such as natural or human-induced disasters
Necessity for a New Theoretical View
An Evolutionary View that sees the change
as a Process rather than a stylized Pattern,
whichcanexplainboth
which can explain both
Longitudinal Dynamics and
Horizontal Varieties
Urban Environmental Evolution (1)
Cities can be viewed as complex systems
that are subject to constant change, which
can be viewed as a dynamic evolutionary
process
process
Urban environmental profiles of cities are
diverse, but there are certain commonalities
in the evolutionary trajectories among
different cities
Urban Environmental Evolution (2)
However, the environmental evolution of
cities exhibit a strong non-linearity in their
trajectories, instead of following a fixed,
stylizedpattern;
stylized pattern;
Each trajectory is shaped by a unique
combination of endogenous and exogenous
forces, reflecting both pressures from
outside the system and the responses from
within the city.
(Source: Bai 2003)
Evolutionary Mechanism
Two FactorsActing:
Internal or endogenous Force:
economic development plan,
environmental consciousness,
industrial and environmental policy, etc.
i
External or exogenous Force:
constraints of natural resource,
environmental capacity,
global environmental pressure, etc.
Actual EvolutionPath Depends on the
Overall Vector of These Two Forces
e
i
e
a
Stage I:
Poverty
Stage II:
Industrial
Pollution
Stage III: Stage IV:
E Ci
Outer
Pressure
Inner
Choice
Outer
Pressure
Inner Choice
Inner
Choice
Outer
Pressure
Drive or
Pressure
Evolution
Direction
4 Scenarios
Scenario 1 (Traditional, Natural Path): Stage 1- Stage 2- Stage 3- Stage 4
Scenario 2 (Strong Outer Pessure) : Stage 1- Stage 2- Satge 4
Scenario 3 ( Strong Inner Drive) : Stage 1- Stage 3- Stage 4
Scenario 4 (Desirable Path) : Stage 1- stge 4
Fig. 5-3 Influence of inner drives and outer pressures, and 4 evolution scenarios
(Source: Bai, 2003)
Consumption
Stage
Eco-City
Stage
Outer Pressure
What Do We Know About Mechanisms?
More on patterns of change, little on mechanism
Anecdotal rather than systematic and theoretical,
reflecting the diversity and complexity of the
phenomenaandthedifficultyof modellingthem
phenomena and the difficulty of modelling them
Importance of building up empirical evidences,
concepts, theories and tools will emerge
Two questions:
What is driving change?
How a positive change is achieved?
Dalian Case
Coastal city in Northern China
5.4 million population
Ranked 8th in comprehensive economic
strength in China
Environmental Model City in China
Global 500 in 2000
Industrial Relocation in Dalian
83.2% of waste gas from industry (1996)
73% of total wastewater (1996)
Many of the polluting industries located in
central districts and near suburbs close to
residential area
In 1993, the city decided to move heavy
polluting industries from the central district
The actual procedure started in 1995.
By 1998, 73 out of listed 115 industries are
relocated.
Industrial Relocation in Dalian
As a result, the TSP in air and COD level in
water has significantly improved.
More land are emptied out for urban
redevelopment
Industries subject to relocation were
encouraged to use the opportunity to improve
production technology. There are several very
successful examples.
Negative Impacts at Importer side
Wuda Industrial Park Case
Energy intensive and highly polluting
industries like ours can not be built in
developed region
But it will take a while until we introduce
environmental protection facilities. - CEO of the
polluting industry
Take the bus first, buy the ticket later.
We always introduce highly polluting
industries that are refused by other countries or
other regions- local EPB head
Policy and
Temporal Evolution
I
n
t
e
Linkages between temporal and spatial dynamics
Policy and
Management
Decisions
Spatial Dynamics
r
-
l
i
n
k
a
g
e
Spatial range of impact
Boundary of
J urisdiction
Source location of
environmental problem
Fig. 4 The common perception of environmental problems
by municipalities and the rational for industrial relocation
as urban environmental management strategy
(Source: Bai, forthcoming)
Coastal city in Northern China
3 million population
99% of central districts using solar energy for hot water
Convergence of provincial government policy, industrial innovation,
local government policy and regulations to popularize solar energy use
World Clean Energy Award
Rizhao policy to be adopted by all other cities in China
Rizhao Case
The Role of Experiment in Sustainability
Transition
Regime
Change
Sustainability
Experiment
Experiment
N/A
Remain
The Importance of Vertical and Horizontal
Linkages in Sustainability Transition
a
n
d

r
e
g
im
e
,

la
n
d
s
c
a
p
e
T
e
m
p
o
r
a
l
y
n
a
m
ic
s
o
f v
e
r
tic
a
l a
n
d

o
n
ta
l lin
k
a
g
e
s
a
n
d

r
e
g
im
e
,

la
n
d
s
c
a
p
e
T
e
m
p
o
r
a
l
y
n
a
m
ic
s
o
f v
e
r
tic
a
l a
n
d

o
n
ta
l lin
k
a
g
e
s
V
e
r
t
ic
a
l
li
n
k
a
g
e
s
b
e
t
w
e
e
n

e
x
p
e
r
im
e
n
t

a
b
e
t
w
e
e
n

r
e
g
im
e

a
n
d

l
Horizontal
linkages among experiments,
and among regimes
T
d
y
n
h
o
r
iz
o
Figure XX A three dimensional analytical framework of the Linkages
V
e
r
t
ic
a
l
li
n
k
a
g
e
s
b
e
t
w
e
e
n

e
x
p
e
r
im
e
n
t

a
b
e
t
w
e
e
n

r
e
g
im
e

a
n
d

l
Horizontal
linkages among experiments,
and among regimes
T
d
y
n
h
o
r
iz
o
Figure XX A three dimensional analytical framework of the Linkages
(Source: Bai et al, forthcoming in TFSC)
The Role of Experiment in Sustainability
Transition
X: Horizontal linkages among
experiments and
t3
t1
t2
Regime 1 Regime 2
y
among regimes
Y: Vertical Linkages between
experiment and regime,
regimeand landscape
Z: Temporal dynamics of
vertical and horizontal
linkages
experiment experiment
x
y
z
A three dimensional analytical framework of linkages
Remaining Research Questions
How the spatial and temporal dynamics are linked?
How the linkage can be integrated at theoretical level? Hypothesis can
be developed, but yet to be tested out.
How to integrate long-termand larger scale concerns/impacts into
local management?
What are the key factors affecting transition?
How do they act?
Can we manipulate themin a certain way?
Do they always act as positive or negative factors in certain direction?
Under what condition a successful sustainability experiment can be
upscaled into entire regime change?
???
BAI - Transitioning to Sustainable and Healthier Cities
6b
Xuemei Bai
Transitioning to Sustainable
and Healthier Cities
Stream Science Plan
Xuemei Bai
Transitioning to Sustainable and
Healthier Cities
StreamSciencePlan
Xuemei Bai, Dec. 6, 2007
Stream Science Plan
Xuemei Bai
What is Transition
Movement from one position, state, stage
to another
A movement development or evolution
A movement, development or evolution
from one form, stage, state to another
Why Transition?
Increasing urbanization ratio
Challenging urban issues presented to cities as
well as sustainability at regional and global scale
Evidences show that BAU will lead to
overshoot/collapse (e.g. ecological footprint)
Require alternative ways of urban development,
design and management
Categories and Rationale Topics/Projects Guiding Research Questions Area Focus Financial Resources Outcome
Advancing concepts and theories on Transitioning
Cities
"Transitioning cities" is an emergying field of
research that requires and provides opportunities
for further conceptual/theoretical exploration. The
application of ecological concept/theories such as
resilience and evolution into urban systems can
be promising. Recentlysysteminnovation thinking
developed in Europe has become one of the
leading school of thinking in transitionning study.
1. Urban Resilience: there will be
an international research project
on urban resilience under
Resilience Alliance. In
collaboration with Stockholm
Univ., Arizona State Univ.,
Chinese Academyof Sciences.
2. Urban Environmental
Evolution: Further development
of the concept, especiallyon
mechanismof change, in close
linkage with research in Category
3.
3. Other Transitioning theories,
eg. systemInnovation theory:
IHDP-IT Metastudyon
sustainbility Transition in Asia
1. Howcities change over time?
2. What drives/obstructs the
change?
3. Can trajectories/pathways be
navigated?
4. If so, where is the tipping
point?
case studies
fromall over
the world
Funding for this categorywill
come fromstrategic
research fund of CSE and
the program, and external
fundraising through
Resilience Alliance.
Advancing science in
transitioning cities
Developing/applying modeling/analytical tools
Taking stock of existing strong data and modeling
platformof stocks and flows framework to further
develop/test abilityto monitoring biophysical and
material flows in urban system and to develop
1. Stocks and Flows Framework
2. Urban MetabolismAnalysis
3. Ecological Footprint Analysis
4. Complex SystemScience
Related tools e g Agent Based
1. Howto model/analyze the
interaction between cities and
their resource basis?
2. What are the environmental
impacts both internal and
Mainlyin
Australian
cities
Mainlyon coinvestment and
consultancyfunding from
federal, state and municipal
government of Australia.
Improved
model/analytical
tools, providing
scientific information
to practices
Transitioni ng Citi es Stream Structure and Science Plan
material flows in urban system, and to develop
indicators to monitor impacts of urban system
functions. In addition, developing models that can
reflect urban systembehavior/responses under
various constraints.
Related tools, e.g. Agent Based
Modeling
impacts, both internal and
external, of urban functions?
3. Howto measure progress in
sustainabilitytransition?
4. Howvarious urban actors
react to given circumstances and
formdecisions?
to practices.
Real world Applications, Hot Issues, and
Policy/Governance Linkages
This categoryof research will adopt problem
oriented approach, and aims for providing
guidance to policy/governance that shapes the
transitioning pathways in rapidlychanging cities in
Asia. It will start fromselecting 2-3 most
challenging issues in relation to urban transition in
Asia, applythe theoryand analytical tools
mentioned above whereever possible but not
limited to them, to tackle the problems. This will
ensure our efforts to be closelylinked to real
world cases, provide data and testbed for
concept/theorydevelopment, and guiding practice
bylink science to policy.
1. Urban Density
2. Bringing global to local in
developing citysettings
3. Adaptation to Climate Change
1. Howto govern/navigate a
highlydynamic process of urban
development?
2. Howinsights obtained from
theoretical development can be
applies into real cities?
3. Howdifferent governance
structure at varrious level
influence urban environmental
management and pathways?
4. What are the implications of
changing urban density?
Mainlyin
Asian cities
Combine strategic research
funding, and through
building relationship with
national and international
funding agencies such as
World Bank, Asian
Development Bank, and
AusAid.
Advancing science,
applying science to
reality, policy
implications and
guidance.
Category I: Advancing concepts and
theories on Transitioning Cities
Examples of concepts/theories:
Urban resilience
Urbanenvironmental evolution
Urban environmental evolution
System innovation
Sustainability transition
Cities as complex system
Category I: Advancing concepts and
theories on Transitioning Cities
1. How cities change over time?
2. What drives/obstructs the change?
3 Cantrajectories/pathwaysbenavigated?
3. Can trajectories/pathways be navigated?
4. Is there, and if so, where is the tipping
point?
Major Projects
Sustainability transition in Asia from
system innovation point of view (IHDP-IT)
Book project: Cities in Evolution:
Urbanization Environmental Changeand
Urbanization, Environmental Change and
Sustainability (Cambridge Univ. Press)
Urban Dynamics, vulnerability and
resilience
Category II: Developing/Applying
Modelling/Analytical Tools
1. How to model/analyse the interaction
between cities and their resource basis?
2. What are the environmental impacts, both
p
internal and external, of urban functions?
3. How to measure progress in sustainability
transition?
4. How various urban actors react to given
circumstances and form decisions?
Category II: Developing/Applying
Modelling/Analytical Tools
1. Urban Metabolism Analysis
2. Sustainability Indicator
3. Modellingandsimulationtoolsfor urban
3. Modelling and simulation tools for urban
transition
4. Digital urban metabolism modelling
platform .
5. Stocks and Flows Framework
Major Projects
Data supporting science communication of
progress
Scoping study for urban sustainability
indicator
Developing digital platform for urban
metabolism measurements
SMURT Workshop
Category III: Real World Application,
Policy/Governance Linkages
1. How to govern/navigate a highly dynamic
process of urban development?
2. How insights obtained from theoretical
development can be applies into real cities?
p pp
3. How different governance structure at various
level influence urban environmental management
and pathways?
4. What are the implications of changing urban
density, and urban consolidation policy?
5. How to integrate climate change concerns into
urban development and management?
Major Projects
1. Programmatic CDM
2. State of Asian cities environmental chapter
3. Urbanization and ecosystem change in Asia
(Shenzhen)
4. Urban system health (collaborative research
with NCEPH)
5. Developing collaborative research partnership
with SEQ
6. Others (cities and climate change)
ROONEY - Sustainable Communities Initiative
7
Sean Rooney
Sustainable Communities Initiative
Sean Rooney
Sean Rooney
Director, Sustainable Communities Initiative
Sean Rooney
Director, Sustainable Communities Initiative
Background
Research stream goal:
improved community capacity to
understand regions as systems
and capacity to assess and
understand trade-offs associated
with alternative investment or
policy choices leading to more
ffi i t bli d i t
CSIRO. Sustainable Communities Initiative
efficient public and private
investment in regional
development
Key Outcomes
Role of science
Pathways to impact
Where to next?
Sustainable Communities Initiative (SCI)
Working together to
develop solutions to
p
local sustainability
issues and
opportunities
SCI Operating Model
SCI Members
ROONEY - Sustainable Communities Initiative
SCI Projects
STATE REGION THEME CSIRO
ACT East Lake Brownfield Redevelopment Sustainable Cities (CSE)
VIC Castlemaine Planning & Implementing
Energy Security
Energy Transformed
QLD Whitsundays Sustainable Whitsundays -
Realising the Vision
SRD (CSE)
WA Avon Catchment Integrating NRM in local govt SRD (CSE)
WA Avon Catchment Integrating NRM in local govt. SRD (CSE)
QLD Surat Basin Regional Futures managing
change
SRD (CSE) & MDU
VIC Central Vic. Regional Water Futures WfHC
VIC Lockerbie Greenfield Development Sustainable Cities (CSE)
NSW Macleay Valley Participatory Planning for SD SRD (CSE)
NSW Guyra Sustainable Population Growth SRD (CSE)
NSW Port Stephens Port Stephens 2031 SRD (CSE)
Recent Experiences.
How should CSIRO engage
transaction vs relationship
What is the project output
process vs plan
process vs plan
decision support
Funding issues
client/scale - pricing and funder/s
cost shifting
planning vs infrastructure
Sean Rooney
Director
Email: sean.rooney@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au/science/SCI.html
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Thank you
WANG & ALEXANDRIDIS - A Review of Modelling in Urban and Regional Transitions
8
XiaomingWang &Kostas Alexandridis
A Review of Modelling in Urban and
Regional Transitions
Xiaoming Wang & Kostas Alexandridis
A Review of Modelling in Urban and
Regional Transitions
Dr Xiaoming Wang and Dr Kostas Alexandridis
December 2007
Photographer: Robert Kerton (CSIRO)
Contents
Introduction
Traditional Models Static
CSIRO. SMURT WORKSHOP, Dec 4-6, 2007, Melbourne
Cellular Automata Models (CA)
Agent-Based Models (ABM)
Traditional Models Dynamic
Urbanisation East Coastline Population Density
Urbanisation Building Density
Infrastructure Density - Roads
Infrastructure Density Electricity Network
Infrastructure Demands Ports
Urban and Region
Urban and regions are made up of infrastructure that carries the
activities of the population by consuming resources (land,
energy, water, commodities)
- economics, ecology, engineering and geography
Urban and regions are the products of human agents in households
or within organisations
- sociology, anthropology, politics
Urban and Region Analysis
Urban and Regional Analysis is concerned with complex
spatiotemporal systems and their patterns/processes at
different scales, which
are capable of adaptationandself-organisedunder constraints;
involve a large number of components that strongly interconnect
and interact to each other over physical space and time;
are capable of adaptation and self organised under constraints;
evolve over time;
People
Location
Physical
Infrastructure
and Resources
Rules
People
Location
Physical
Infrastructure
and Resources
Transition
Multidiscipline in Urban and Regional Analysis
Demography What is the size and compositions of population?
Geography how do phenomena, processes and feature as well as the
interaction of humans and their environment spatially and
temporally distributed?
Human Geography: patterns and processes that shape
human interaction with environment
Physical Geography: patterns and processes in natural
environment
Environmental Geography: interaction between human and
natural environment
Economics how much inputs are required for a unit of production of
outputs? the activity principle;
how the same level of production can be achieved from
different combination of inputs? the substitution
principle;
how the maximum profit and utility can be achieved from
i i i t ith i i t ? th ti i i
minimum inputs with minimum costs? the optimising
principle;
how are activities and their optimisation affected by
uncertainties? the dispersion principle.
Social Science how do individuals and organisations behave?
Ecology how living organisms are distributed and interacted
among/between them as and their environment as well?
Engineering how do physical assets (e.g. structures, machines) or
processes (e.g. manufacturing) are planned, designed,
constructed, operated, maintained, renewed and disposed
(lifecycle) ?
how do they behave and function under specific
conditions?
h th l l f f (f ti lit
how the same level of performance (functionality,
reliability and safety) can be achieved from different
lifecycle approaches? the substitution principle;
how the maximum performance can be achieved from
minimum inputs with minimum costs? the optimising
principle;
how are their performance affected by uncertainties?
the dispersion principle.
Contents
Introduction
Urban/Regional Modelling von Thunens Ring
Assumption: uniform land surrounding a single market town, uniform
transport andproductioncosts andindefinitelyelastic
Question: What is the maximum price that should be paid for a land
and what kind of land uses would be formed at a specific
distance?
transport and production costs, and indefinitely elastic
demand at a given price.
Profit-Based Approach: ) ( rd c p Y E =
yield/area price/unit
product
labour and other cost transport cost distance
Urban/Regional Modelling von Thunens Ring
) ( Y
E
) (
1 1
c p Y
d
2
Land use 1
) (
2 2
c p Y
d
r
c p
2
r
c p
1
d
1
d
2
d
1
Land use 2
Urban/Regional Modelling Gravity Model
Assumption: the attractiveness of moving from one to another location
is proportional to the population and inversely
Question: How do migrants (stocks) behave in regard to moving
from one to another location (flow)?
ij
j i
ij
d
P f P f
T
) ( ) (
=
proportional to the distance between two locations.
2
ij
j i
ij
d
P kP
T =
population from i to j distance from i to j
Urban/Regional Modelling Gravity Model
D O B A
Transport Model Gravity Model
O T
total
population
ij
j i j i
ij
c
D O B A
T =
cost from i to j
=
=
i
j ij
j
i ij
D T
O T
population
leaving from i
total
population
arriving at j
Urban/Regional Modelling
Generalised von Thunens Model
Question: What kind of land uses would be formed at a specific
distance considering multiple markets and attraction
constraints?
Generalisation: land productivity, cost and demand depends on the
locationof the land
location of the land.
Assumption: the land use aims to achieve maximum profit
Urban/Regional Modelling
Generalised von Thunens Model
( ) { }
i
g
ij
g
j
ijg
g
ij
g
j
g
ij
g
i
Y Z
Y v c p Max
=

Maximum profit
Subject to
Sum of outputs of product g at location j to each
market i equals to the total output of product g at
location j - Balance
g
j
g
ij
g
i
g
i
g
ij
g
j
j
g
j
g
j
g
Z c W B Y
Z
L Z q
=
) exp(
0
Sum of the land use to produce g at location j equals

to the total land at j ( is the land required to
produce unit product) - Resources
g
j
q
Outputs of product g at location j to each market i is
the function of the attraction of product g at market i
and the transport cost of product g from j to i -
Demands
The total output of product g at location j is larger
than zero
Contents
Introduction
Ecological Dynamic Models
[ ]
n n j i n n
n
x x u x D
dt
dx
= ) , (
Assume N species with x
n
population
2 1
2
1 2 1
1
) (
) (
x fx e
dt
dx
x cx bx a
dt
dx
+ =
=
Limit of growth or capacity
Prey-Predator Model
2 2 1
2
1 2 1
1
) (
) (
x gx fx e
dt
dx
x cx bx a
dt
dx
=
=
Competition for Resources Model
Dynamic Population Migration Model

) exp(
=
=
=
i ij
i
i ij
ij j i i ij
D T
T T
c W T A T
Assumption:
Population flow from i to j depends
on the attractiveness of the
destination j, W
j
, and the cost to
destination, c
ij
Total from i
Total to j

j
i ij
D T j
The attractiveness changes with the population flow similar to
ecological model
j j j j
j
W kW D
dt
dW
) ( =
Discrete Population Growth Models
Classic Exponential Growth Model
t t
n n

=
+1
n
t
Time
1 + t
Conventional Urban Model Next period of the
time
Urban development
vector: population
t t t t t t t
e n n n

+ + =
+
) 1 (
1 t
Reproduction rate
t
Cease rate
t
External influence
factor
Generic Urban Model
t t t t t t t
e n n n

S B + + =
+1
reproduction mutation external
time
Example: Nonlinear Dynamics
( ) ) ( 1 ) ( ) 1 ( t X t rX t X = +
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
0
0.1
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
0.1
0.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
0.1
0.2
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 20 40 60 80 100
r=2.0 r=2.9
r=3.2
r=3.5
r=3.8
Contents
Introduction
Traditional Models - Static
Model Classification
( ) ) ( , ), 1 ( ), ( ) 1 ( k t T t T t T t T
ij ij ij ij
= +
Historical and Autoregression Model
Multivariate Model
( ) ) ( , ), ( ), ( ) 1 ( t t t t T
ij ij ij ij
= +
( ) ) ( , ), ( ), ( ), ( ) 1 (
1 , 1 , , 1 , 1
t T T t T t T t T t T
j i j i j i j i ij ij + +
= +
Geographical Model Cellular Automata
Modelling with Cellular Automata
Elements and Transition in Cellular Automata
( )
i i i i
T N t S f t S , ), ( ) 1 ( = +
State at t+1 State at t Neighbourhood Transition rule
Neighbourhood (Examples)
von Neumann
Moore
Self-Organisation: Segregation by Majority Rule
2 Groups (50%, 50%)
Step 0 Step 1 Step 2
Self-Organisation: Segregation and Absorption by
Majority Rule 3 Groups (50%, 30%, 20%)
Dominant Growth of the Group with Higher
Percentage
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
e
s
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Steps
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
a
g
e
Urban Growth Pattern
- a simple model with transition following neighbour
Step 3 Step 11
p=1
p=0.2
Melbourne
Video Show
Video Show
Contents
Introduction
Traditional Models - Static
Modelling with Agent-Based Approach
Elements and Transition in Agent-Based Models
( )
i i i i i i
M t L T N t S f t S ), ( ; , ); ( ) 1 ( = +
St t t t 1
State at t+1
State at t
Neighbourhood
Transition rule
Location at t
Movement rule
How will urban and regional transitioning be
sustainable over Australian landscape in the future?
CSE Urban Systems Program
Dr Xiaoming Wang
Research Scientist
Phone: 03 9252 6328
Email: Xiaoming.Wang@csiro.au
CSE Future Resources Program
Dr Kostas Alexandridis
Research Scientist
Phone: 07 4753 8630
Email: Kostas.Alexandridis@csiro.au
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Thank you
HECKBERT - Urban Modelling Capacities and Experience in CSE
9
Scott Heckbert
Urban Modelling Capacities and
Experience in CSE
Scott Heckbert
Urban Modelling Capacities
and Experience in CSE
Scott Heckbert
CSE Townsville
Modelling Perspective
1. What do you see as the main challenges for
urban/regional sustainability research?
2. What would be appropriate scientific concepts and
methodologies to address these challenges?
3. What tools you would be looking for in modelling
simulation and modelling of urban and regional
transitions?
4. How can we ensure to address the needs of the key
stakeholders and to effectively improve decision and
policy-making processes?
Answer to Q 3
Look both ways mixing
modelling tools where appropriate
Outside looking in, or inside
looking out
Sees cities as an exogenous
driver in regional change
Sees regional areas as input to
Includes inherent and constructed
feedbacks and adaptation (in order
to deal with multiple issues)
In addition to the models content,
the human dimension (modeller) is
th t i t t fifth l t t
Sees regional areas as input to
city metabolism
Sust Cities +Sust. Regional Dev
Participatory processes
Predictive vs exploratory
CEUS 2007 . . . our models become better,
more accurate, if they make assumptions
that more closely match the behaviour of
real people . . .
the most important fifth element to
keep honesty in complex
modelling and simulation (Clarke,
2005).
CSE Urban Modelling
Infrastructure
Governance
Highett VIC
Gungahlin ACT
Tourism, Economic Development
Environment
Communities
Alice Springs NT Atherton QLD
Darwin NT
North Ryde NSW
St Lucia QLD
Townsville QLD
Cairns QLD
Urrbrae
Floreat
Toowoomb
CSE Advantage
Models of suffer from givemeabreakitis, as researchers
bend the limitations of a technique.
Combination of each method doing what it does best, and
nothing more
Multi-disciplinary team p y
Challenge for our leaders in CSE Urban Research
Break down the 1 researcher 1 model trend
Break down the mega-model building trend
Use the whole toolbox
Value in multiple modelling approach:
Data validation prediction
Scale disaggregation building from bottom
Integration Possibilities
1. Optimisation to identify target scenarios for future
spatial configuration of cities generates maps
2. Bayesian CA representing land use transition spatial
calibrated by historical data and planning scenarios
3. Systems dynamics model tracking urban-rural y y g
metabolism, supply chain issues
4. CGE measuring inter-intra state aggregated transition
of the economy
5. Networked ABM, tracking individual data for sub-
aggregated indicators, i.e. wealth distribution
Trends according to Torrens (2005)
Urban simulation transformed in recent years, with new
wave urban models including CSS methods.
The familiar regional models of exchange of population,
goods, and jobs between coarsely represented divisions
of geographical space are gradually substituted by
i l ti f b t ll ti f simulations of urban systems as collectives of numerous
elements acting in the city.
Models formulated based on individual-scale urban
objectshomeowners, renters, pedestrians,
commutersand detailed descriptions of the rules
governing their real-time behaviour in space, across
scales from the microscopic through to the regional
Policy relevance
Explanatory or predictive modelling?
Simple Illustration: Block sizes in outer
suburbs
Issues: Density of urban fringe development
Hypothesis 1:
Travel cost vs block size
U =U(BS) U(TC)
?
Migration rates, employment and service centres, migrants and full-
time residents
Population densities relative to block sizes steer the simulation
toward specific land-uses (urban -rural).
Residential building based on community size, land value, capital,
carrying capacity of infrastructure.
1 Example
Modelling tools for urban systems
Neo-classical
Computable general
equilibrium CGE
Optimisation
Statistical
Econometric estimation
Computational geometry
Data mining
Systems dynamics
Stocks and Flows
Numerical modelling
Visual
Envisioning future
landscapes
Complex Systems
Agent-based models ABM
Network analysis
Cellular automata CA
Bayesian
3D visualisations
Communication of
model outputs
Envisioning of future Envisioning of future
scenarios
Use to generate
experimental data
Source: a b c
Cellular Automata CA
Urban Sprawl
patterns
Fire and diffusion
2 Examples
Fire and diffusion
Landscape
fragmentation green
belt and habitat
connectivity
Source: a b c
Agent-based modelling ABM
When to use?
When the individual matters
personal wellbeing
H t it
1 Example
Heterogeneity
Markets
Interactions matter
(communication
and physical space)
Source: a
Spatial ABMs
Source: a b
GBR nutrient cap and trade
Spatial Bayesian
Source: a b
CGE
Source: a
Systems Dynamics
1 Example
PIJ ANOWSKI - Land Use Change: Analysis, Modelling and Sustainability
10
Bryan Pijanowski
Land Use Change: Analysis,
Modelling and Sustainability
Bryan Pijanowski
Land Use Change: Analysis, Land Use Change: Analysis,
Modeling and Sustainability Modeling and Sustainability
Bryan C Pijanowski Bryan C. Pijanowski
Department of Forestry and Natural Resources
Purdue University
www.human-environment.org
bpijanow@purdue.edu
December 5, 2007
Overview of Presentation Overview of Presentation
United States (Urbanization and Water Quality)
Urbanization Patterns in the Great Lake States
Forecasting Work
Footprint of the American Automobile
Backcasting Work
Optimizationof the Built Environment Optimization of the Built Environment
East Africa (Climate-Land Interactions)
Error propagation (from land use to climate change
models)
Role Playing Simulations and Models of Complex Social-
Ecological Systems
Moldova (Institutions and Environmental Change)
Regime Shifts, Land Use and Climate Change
Poverty Vulnerability and Adaptation
Land Use Change Analysis g y
Gr eat Lakes Met r opl i t an Ar eas Land Use Change St udy
Twin Cities Metro Area
(TWIN CITIES)
1990-1997
Seven county region
Aerial photography (1:6,000)
Muskegon River Watershed (MUSKEGON)
1978-1998
Twelve county region
Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (CHICAGO)

1990-2001
Six county region
Southeastern Wisconsin
Regional Planning Comm.
(MILWAUKEE)
1963, 1970, 1980 and 1990
Seven county region
Aerial photography (various)
Southeast Michigan
Council of Governments (DETROIT)
1978, 1995, and 2000
Seven county region
Aerial photography (various)
Wa s hi ngt o n Was hi ngt o n
Oz auke e Oz auk ee
So u t h Ea s t e r n So u t h Ea s t e r n
Wi s c o n s i n ( SEWI ) Wi s c o n s i n ( SEWI )
Landuse change data from1963to 1990. Shownare
areas in urban development in 1963 (darkgray) and
1990(red) for the seven countyarea.
Data courtesy of SEWRP.
Wal wo r t h Wal wo r t h
Wa uk es ha Wa uk es ha
R a c i ne R a c i ne
K e no s ha K e no s ha
Mi l wa uke e Mi l wa uke e
Legend
SEWI County Boundaries
NewUrban1963-1990
10 0 10 20 30 40 5
Kilometers
Summary of Land Use/Cover Totals and Percent Change
DETROIT
MILWAUKEE
Notes: (a) forested wetlands in 1978 were classified as forests and wetlands in following years; (b) vacant includes shrubland and forests;
(c) vacant includes ag, shrub and forests
MUSKEGON
CHICAGO
TWIN CITIES
Sprawl Index values as calculated as rate of urban expansion
to population expansion.
DETROIT
MILWAUKEE (1963 1990)
Notes: Michigan 17 county calculation based on SEMCOG, Lansing-Jackson, Grand Rapids
Region, and Northwest Lower Michigan land use databases. Reported here for comparison.
TCMA Population for 1997 is estimated.
MILWAUKEE (1963-1990)
TWIN CITIES (1990-1997)
100000
120000
140000
160000
MMA
NP
Detroit
Milwaukee
Number of Patches of Land Use/Cover
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
1978 1990 2000 1990 2001 1963 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 1978 1998
DMA
CMA
MRW
Chicago Muskegon
25000
30000
35000
Residential
Detroit
Milwaukee
Number of Patches of Residential Urban Use
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
1978 1990 2000 1990 2001 1963 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 1978 1998
Chicago Muskegon
15000
20000
Milwaukee
Number of Patches of Agriculture Use
0
5000
10000
15000
1978 1990 2000 1990 2001 1963 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000 1978 1998
Detroit
Chicago Muskegon
5
25
20 15
10
30
35 40
GENESEE LAPEER
SAGINAW
25
30
35
40
45
LIVINGSTON
OAKLAND
GENESEE
LAPEER
S outheast Mi chi gan 1978 S outheast Mi chi gan 1978

L and Us e & Anal ysi s Buffers L and Us e & Anal ysi s Buffers
Land Use/Cover
Agriculture
Shrubland
Forest
Open Water
Wetlands
Barren
Residential
Commerical
Industrial
Transportation/Communication
Other Urban
Parks
5
5
10
15
20
5
25 30
20
35
10
25
40
45
30
50
35
LENAWEE
OAKLAND
WAYNE
ST. CLAIR
MONROE
WASHTENAW
INGHAM
MACOMB
LIVINGSTON
SHIAWASSEE
5 10
5
15
20
30
WASHTENAW
WAYNE
0 10 20 5 Kilometers
0 50 100 25 Kilometers
Amount of Urban Change 1978-2000 in Buffer Zones
250
300
e
Detroit Region Land Use Change Analysis by Buffer Zones
D bli f b
Tripling of urban
0
50
100
150
200
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Distance Zones from Urban Edge in 1978 (in km)
P
e
r
c
e
n
t

D
i
f
f
e
r
e
n
c
e
Doubling of urban
Forecasting Work
Land Transformation Model
Detroit Metropolitan Area
1980
Real data
urban
agriculture
forest
1995
Calibration year
urban
agriculture
forest
2020
urban
agriculture
forest
2040
urban
agriculture
forest
1995 2005
urban
agriculture
forest
2025 2050
urban
agriculture
forest
Parking Lots
F t i t f th A i A t bil
Bryan C. Pijanowski, Department of Forestry and Natural Resources
Footprint of the American Automobile
Parking Lot is Twice the Size of Building
Montana
Nevada
Idaho
Oregon
Iowa
Wyoming
Minnesota
Nebraska
Ohio
SouthDakota
Washington
NorthDakota
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Maine
NewYork
Michigan
Michigan
Vermont
NewJersey
NewHampshire
Massachusetts
Connecticut
1200'0"W 1300'0"W 1100'0"W 1000'0"W 900'0"W 800'0"W 700'0"W
400'0"N 400'0"N
500'0"N 500'0"N
Texas
Utah
California
Arizona
Nevada
Colorado
Kansas
NewMexico
Illinois
Missouri
Ohio
Georgia
Oklahoma
Alabama
Arkansas
Virginia
Tennessee
Florida
Indiana
Louisiana
Mississippi
Kentucky
NorthCarolina
SouthCarolina
WestVirginia
MarylandDelaware
1100'0"W 1000'0"W 900'0"W 800'0"W
200'0"N
300'0"N 300'0"N
200'0"N
Tippecanoe Tippecanoe
County, County,
Indiana Indiana
W
e
s
t

L
a
f
a
y
e
t
t
e
What are the urban areas in purple?
L
a
f
a
y
e
t
t
e
Developed These Footprint Metrics
Total Area Metrics what is the total area of parking
lots in case study area and as expressed as % of urban
use
Efficiency Metrics how many parking spaces do we
have per person, family, registered vehicle, etc.
residing in the case study area
F t i t S i R ti M t i i f ki l t Footprint Service Ratio Metrics size of a parking lot
as a function of the size of the building it services
Perspective Size Metrics relate the size of parking
spaces to units general public understands (e.g., size
of a football field)
Functional Metrics above metrics broken down by
specific functional uses (e.g., worship footprint)
Value Metrics compare the size of parking footprint
to size of other uses (e.g., urban parks, wetlands)
Replacement Metrics what the current parking lot
area could produce if it were used for another
ecosystem service
T d M i l h i
Educational Footprint - Purdue Campus
Employment Footprint - Factory
Shopping
Footprint
- Mall and
Big Box
Stores
Worship Footprint
Church
2. Efficiency Metrics
Estimated number of parking spaces is
355,000
Year 2000 Census has county
l i 148 955 population at 148,955
Number of registered vehicles is
117,775
Translates into 3 spaces per vehicle
Number of families in county is 32,403
Translates into 11 spaces per family
Land Use Legacies
Hour s t o days y
0
0 10
20
21
7
32
10
6
11
31
6
6
9
6
6
47
91
31 66
43
60
55
22 78
104
11
53
42
57
34
43 44
10 22 44 10 30
17 46 57 68 33
59 70 81 46 35 34 45 55
19 14 15 97 72
10 20 22 45 56 22 21 41
13 72 83 94 59 67
33
33
54
13 69 118 117 108
38
19
44
13
25
32
Legend
Lakes and Pond Boundaries
G r o unwa t e r T r a ve l T i me s f o r A S ma l l C a t c hme nt G r o unwa t e r T r a ve l T i me s f o r A S ma l l C a t c hme nt
i n t he Mus ke gon R i ve r Wa t e r s he d i n t he Mus k e gon R i ve r Wa t e r s he d
0 330 660 165 Meters
8
6
21 11
9
9
9
7
8
6
73
49
27
15
10
65
57
34
20
13
60
83
26 69 85
44 61
22 40
72
19 14 15 97 72
32 19 28 29 99
39 26 35 36 16 17 22 15
53 40 49 51 30 32 34 39 15 44
60 48 41 42 57 59 38 39 41 48 18 57
75 63 72 74 53 55 57 64 34
82 71 80 82 61 63 66 72 43
98 87 81 82 97 99 78 80
19
90 61
26 13 21 22 85 73
46 33 42 44 23 24 26 31 30
67 55 64 66 45 47 49 56 26 68
90 79 88 90 70 72 74 81 52
13 69
26 86
33
47 29
54 37
69 52 78
77 60 17
93 77 35
111
118
112
117
180
158 160 151 142
145 146
122 132 131
156 164 172
108
183
187
169
191
169
137
176
127
51
85
92
44
57
64
78
71
115
107
123
100
95 43 86 69 99 92 89 87 90 89 107 101 107 105 131
Rivers and Streams
Township Boundaries
watersheds
GW Travel Times (yrs)
Value
0
1-20
20.00000001 - 40
40.00000001 - 63
63.00000001 - 90
90.00000001 - 130
130.0000001 - 201
201.0000001 - 374
374.0000001 - 4,557
Generate the number

of agriculture cells per
decade by county
Aggregate Land in
Farms by year
into 1Table
fromall Tables
Compute agriculture
cells in1978from
MIRIS dataset
Compute agriculture
cells from1970 to 1930
sing MIRIS 1978 and
C
o
u
n
t
y
Generate the number
of housingcells per
decade byMCD
Open and subset hand
digitized housing units built
for all subcountyinformation
Decode from17
character FIPS code
subcountycodes for MI
Dynamically declare
two arrays to holdhousing
constructed informationby
county andby MCD
M
C
D
Compute housing units
constructed per decade
by MCD and total till 1970s
C t h i
Prepare drivers for Stuttgart Neural Net Create 3 patternfiles fromthe drivers
Trainthe Stuttgart Neural Net Output fromNN AsciiTsBackcast
Res File
Urban
Agriculture
Forest
BACKCAST MODEL STRUCTURE
Openfiles
Land Use 1978
Agriculture cells
Housingcells
Res files
Determine
Housingcells to
transition
ByMCD
Transition housingcells
byMCD into Ag cells
1. Determine 1. Determine Probabilities Probabilities fromChangeMaps fromChangeMaps
2. 2.
Allocation Allocation
of Cells to of Cells to
Agriculture Agriculture
3. Allocation 3. Allocation
of Cells out of Cells out
of Urban of Urban
4. Make 4. Make
Historical Historical
Land Use Land Use
Maps Maps
Using Using
susing MIRIS 1978 and
LIF information
Agriculture cells for
each countyfor
each decade
Housing cells for
each MCDfor
each decade
M
Compute housing
cells from1970to 1930
using MIRIS 1978 LU by MCD
and housing units information
Newland use by
decade
Fixed resolution at 30m
Using Using
Maximum Maximum
Likelihood Likelihood
P
a
r
t

3
:

T
r
a
n
s
i
t
i
o
n

R
u
l
e
s
->Simple Markov (in to and out of)
->Semi-Markov (ag ->shrub ->forest in forward
direction)
- >Spatial Markov (create ag and shrub in large blocks
similar in size to average small farm)
1978 1977
1976 1975
1974 1973
1972 1971
1970 1969
1968 1967
1966 1965
1964 963
962 961
960 1959
958 957
1956 1955
1954 1953
1952 1951
1950 1949
1948 1947
1946 1945
1944 1943
1942 1941
1940 1939
1938 1937
1936 1935
1934 1933
1932 1931
1930
Time series maps fromthe backcast model
Land Use Legacy Map
(Integration of Backcast and GW Travel Time Models)
Questions
How does the legacy map differ from a
current (e.g., 2006) map?
How will current land use impact water
quality today and in the distant future?
Difference Map Current versus Legacy Map
Land uses in the past potentially have large influence
on current water quality
The interaction of spatial-temporal scales is complex
Landuse legacy maps are useful for planningand
Take Home Messages
Land use legacy maps are useful for planning and
management but not universally so
What we do now to the land could be detected when
our grandchildren sample the water
The past has yet to catch up to usonly 25% of the
current urban signal is present in the water
Thus, if we stop NOW, water degradation could
continue for decades
Optimizing future land use patterns based on hydrologic impacts
INTEGRATIVE
Spatial and temporal scales
Uncertaintyanalysis
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
Regional Local
LAND COVER NPP SIMULATIONS
Global Climate
The Climate-Land-Society Loop
Coarse (16km)
r
e
g
a
t
i
o
n
g
a
t
i
o
n
Uncertainty analysis
Feedbacks and tippingpoints
Systems paradigms
Broader impacts
LAND USE CHANGE
Case
Studies
Models
Role Playing
Games
Crops Rangeland
Remote
Sensing
Case
Studies
Human Systems
Fine (90m)
D
i
s
a
g
g
r
A
g
g
r
e
g
Cross Scale Quantity Errors
How variability at one scale
impacts the total quantity
error at higher scales
Threshold for ranges and
total values set at cross-
scale medians
Acknowledgements
NSF Water Cycle Project to Hyndman and
Pijanowski
Great Lakes Fisheries Trust Projects (3) to
Stevenson, Wiley, Pijanowski and Hyndman
NASA Land Use Cover Hydrology Program
to Bowling, Cherkauer, Pijanowski and
Niyogi
Kellogg Foundation
Purdue Research Foundation
http://www.human-environment.org
PETTIT - GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist Urban and Regional Planning and
Management
11
Chris Pettit
GIS-based Modelling and Visualization
Tools to Assist Urban and Regional
Planning and Management
Chris Pettit
GIS-based Modelling and Visualization Tools to Assist
Urban and Regional Planning and Management
Dr Chris Pettit
Statewide Leader Spatial Sciences
Future Farming Systems Research Div
DPI Victoria
SMURT 07
Contents
DPI Spatial Sciences - who are we?
A Spatial Planning and Decision Support
System Approach
Case Studies
Environmental Planning Melton Shire g
Integrated Terrestrial / Aquatic Modelling
Western Port
Land use change scenarios Mitchell Shire
Climate Change Adaptation Planning
South West Victoria
Summary
Research Challenges
DPI Spatial Sciences who are we?
Core disciplines and specialisations :
(i) Strategic planning - frameworks & planning support systems
(ii) Geomatics (land information) - remote sensing, GIS
(iii) Eco-informatics knowledge / data systems management, data (iii) Eco informatics knowledge / data systems management, data
mining.
(iv) Spatial Modelling and visualisation
scenario modelling, 3D scientific
& geographical visualisation.
Spatial Planning and Decision Support
Framework
Policy &
Decision-
Making
Community & Stakeholder
Scenario
Modelling
Analysis
Forecasting
Design
Landscape
Visualisation
2D, 3D, 4D
TBL
Evaluation
Indicators
Spatial Decision Support System
y
Engagement
Scenario
Modelling
Analysis
Forecasting
Design
Landscape
Visualisation
2D, 3D, 4D
Case Studies
Environmental Planning Melton Shire
Integrated Terrestrial / Aquatic Modelling
WesternPort Bay Western Port Bay
Strategic Planning Mitchell Shire
South West Victoria
Management
Located 20 km from
Melbourne CBD.
Excellent access to airports,
seaports, freeway linkages,
rail transport to Melbourne,
Geelong and Ballarat.
Proximity to large labour
forces andtourismcatchment
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!
HUME CITY
MOORABOOL SHIRE
BRIMBANK CITY
WHITTLESEACITY
MACEDON RANGES SHIRE
MORELAND CITY
DAREBIN CITY
MOONEE VALLEY CITY EXFORD
MELTON
ROCKBANK
PLUMPTON
KURUNJ ANG
WEST MELTON
MELTON SOUTH
DIGGERS REST
TOOLERN VALE
MOUNT COTTRELL
Melton Shire
Regional LocationMap
Legend
! Town
[_ Melbourne
Roads
Railway
River
forces and tourism catchment.
Population 83,000 and
projected growth 160,000 by
2021.
Significant urban rural lifestyle
and rural communities.
Dryland cropping, horticulture,
sheep grazing, horse studs
and racing, and intensive
animal industries.
95,682
84,160
72,010
59,269
47,114
39,349 36,900
34,166 35,959
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031
Melton Balance SLA
Melton Township
Estimated
Resident
Population
Source: Interim Population Forecasts (Research Team, DSE). Melton Township data and graphic prepared by SRP, AV-Werribee, DPI
!
[_
Port Phillip Bay
WYNDHAMCITY
GREATER GEELONG CITY
HOBSONBAY CITY
MELBOURNE CITY
MARIBYRNONG CITY
YARRA CITY
PORT PHILLIP CITY
BAYSIDE CITY
GLEN EIRA CITY
CHARTWELL
0 3 6
Kilometers
Copyright Agriculture Victoria Services Pty Ltd(AVS), 2007.

This data cannot be guaranteedto be without flawof any kind, and therefore,
AVS disclaims all liability of error or inappropriate use of the mapdata
Data Source: Corporate Geospatial Data library, DPI, DSE, 2006
Edition: J anuary 2007 AMG Zone 55 (Transverse Mercator) Projection
Preparedfor: MeltonEnvironmental Atlas
MapPreparedby Landscape Systems - Spatial Sciences (Werribee), PIRVic, Department of Primary Industries.
River
Lake
UrbanGrowthBoundary
Public Land
Melton Shire
Surrounding LGAs
Council sought guidance in the appropriate use and
development of the Shires rural areas. Including
land use opportunities and land quality review.
Assist strategic planning and policy decision
making within the Green Wedge Zone.
Meltons rural areas facing major challenges from
Urban encroachment and highest LGA population
growth
Land degradation e.g. weeds, clearing, soil, water
quality
Small lot rural property subdivision
Urban rural lifestyle and rural community
Access to water infrastructure
1. Project Scope and
Objectives
2. Profile of Melton
3. Physical
Environment
Methodology
4. Environmental
Assets
5. Land Suitability
Analysis
6. Environmental
Threats
7. Additional
Capacity
8. Strategic
Directions
9. Precinct
Framework
10. Rural
Development
![
![
![
![
![
![
![
![
![
![
!
!
!
HUME CITY
KURUNJ ANG
DIGGERS REST
TOOLERN VALE
Melton Shire
Environmental Assets
Map Features
! Towns
Major Roads
Urban Growth Boundary
Minor Roads
Railway
Waterways
Environmental Assets and Threats
![ ![
![
![
![
![
![
![
![
![
![
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
MOORABOOL
SHIRE
BRIMBANK CITY
EXFORD
MELTON
ROCKBANK
PLUMPTON
CHARTWELL
WEST MELTON
MELTON SOUTH
MOUNT COTTRELL
0 2.5 5
Kilometers
Copyright Agriculture Victoria Services PtyLtd(AVS), 2007.

This data cannot be guaranteed tobe without flawof anykind, andtherefore,
AVS disclaims all liability of error or inappropriate use of the map data
Data Source: Corporate Geospatial Data library, DPI, DSE, 2006, WesternWater
MapPreparedbyLandscape Systems - Spatial Sciences (Werribee), PIRVic, Department of Primary Industries.
Waterways
Area with Tree Cover
Significant Grassland
Wetland Extent in 1994
Openwater
Meadow
Shallowmarsh
Deep marsh
Melton Shire
Surrounding LGAs
1:150,060
Socio-economic Analysis
$558593
$623,081
$720,735
$851,144
$980,858
$1,094,375
$1,489,615
$1,856,205
Sheepand lambs slaughtered value ($)
Wool - Total - value ($)
Oilseeds -total value ($)
Cattle and calves slaughtered- value ($)
Wheat for grain- value ($)
Mushrooms - value ($)
Barleyfor grain- value ($)
Poultryslaughtered- total value ($)
$6,074
$14,772
$30,258
$65,066
$66,600
$83,390
$170,440
$173,620
$558,593
$0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,00
0
$1,200,00
0
$1,400,00
0
$1,600,00
0
$1,800,00
0
$2,000,00
0
Legumes andfield peas for grain
Pigs slaughtered- value ($)
Oats for grain- value ($)
Grapes - Wine - value ($)
Pastures cut for hay- value ($)
Cereals cut for hay- value ($)
Milk - value ($)
Nurseries andflowers andturf - total value ($)
Sheepand lambs slaughtered- value ($)
!
!
!
HUME CITY
MOORABOOL
SHIRE
KURUNJ ANG
DIGGERS REST
TOOLERN VALE
Melton Shire
Recycle Water Plan
Map Features
! Towns
Major Roads
Minor Roads
Railway
Rivers
Lakes
Recycle Water Pipeline (RWP)
Infrastructure Capacity Analysis
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
BRIMBANK CITY
EXFORD
MELTON
ROCKBANK
PLUMPTON
CHARTWELL
WEST MELTON
MELTON SOUTH
MOUNT COTTRELL
0 2 4
Kilometers
Copyright Agriculture Victoria Services PtyLtd(AVS), 2007.

This data cannot be guaranteed to be without flawof anykind, andtherefore,
AVS disclaims all liability of error or inappropriate use of the map data
Data Source: Corporate Geospatial Datalibrary, DPI, DSE, 2006, WesternWater
MapPrepared byLandscape Systems - Spatial Sciences (Werribee), PIRVic, Department of Primary Industries.
y p ( )
1k buffer around RWP
Surbiton Park WWTP
Lot Size (ha)
<12
12 - 40
40 - 80
>80
Melton Shire
Surrounding LGAs
Management
!
!
!
HUME CITY
KURUNJ ANG
DIGGERS REST
TOOLERN VALE
Melton Shire
Agriculture LandSuitability
Map Features
! Towns
Major Roads
Minor Roads
Railway
Rivers
Suitabi lity Index
Restricted
0(Very Low)
1(Very Low)
2(Low)
3(Low)
4(L )
Land Suitablity Analysis - MCE & AHP
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
MOORABOOL
SHIRE
BRIMBANK CITY
EXFORD
MELTON
ROCKBANK
PLUMPTON
CHARTWELL
WEST MELTON
MELTONSOUTH
MOUNT COTTRELL
0 2.5 5
Kilometers
Copyright AgricultureVictoria Services PtyLtd (AVS), 2007.

This data cannot be guaranteedto be without flawof anykind, and therefore,
AVS disclaims all liabilityof error or inappropriate use of the mapdata
Data Source: Corporate Geospatial Data library, DPI, DSE, 2006
Edition: J anuary2007 AMG Zone 55 (Transverse Mercator) Projection
Preparedfor: Melton Environmental Atlas
Map PreparedbyLandscapeSystems - Spatial Sciences (Werribee), PIRVic, Department of PrimaryIndustries.
Lakes
Stony/RockyArea
Poor TrafficabilityArea
Melton Shire
SurroundingLGAs
4(Low)
5(Moderate)
6(Moderate)
7(Moderate)
8(High)
9(High)
10(High)
LSA LSA - - Cool Climate Grapes Cool Climate Grapes
Terrain
0.192
Slope
0.75
Climate
0.677
Heat D Days
0.395
Soils
0.131
Depth
0.460
Aspect
0.25
Spring Frost
0.212
Wind
0.171
Flower S Rain
0.117
Rain Dur Rip
0.067
Branas Index
0.039
pH
0.062
Texture
0.043
Drainage
0.101
Sodicity
0.191
EC
0.143
Topsoil 0.75
Subsoil 0.25
Topsoil 0.75
Subsoil 0.25
Topsoil 0.75
Subsoil 0.25
Topsoil 0.75
Subsoil 0.25
Recommends Strategic Directions, New Opportunities
and Challenges.
Promotes a Multifunctional role of Agricultural
Landscapes to enable sustainable regional
development.
Contributes to Rural Zones Review protecting the quality
land and planning for land use and resource allocation.
Input into Councils
Municipal Strategic
Statement and other
policies and strategies.
Multi-functional
Agricultural
Development F
a
r
m
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
io
n
New Market Production
C
a
r
r
y
i n
g
C
a
p
a
c
it
y
EMS
ImprovedPerformance
Landscape Amenities
Sustainable Technology
Agri-tourism
Off-farmbusiness
Value addingprocessingandindustry
Complementaryproducts
Diversification
Niche Markets
Market Alliances &Short chains
Clustering&Share farming
Alternative farmingsystems
Multi-functional
Agricultural
Development F
a
r
m
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
io
n
New Market Production
C
a
r
r
y
i n
g
C
a
p
a
c
it
y
EMS
ImprovedPerformance
Landscape Amenities
Sustainable Technology
Agri-tourism
Off-farmbusiness
Value addingprocessingandindustry
Complementaryproducts
Diversification
Niche Markets
Market Alliances &Short chains
Clustering&Share farming
Alternative farmingsystems
Integrated Terrestrial / Aquatic
Modelling Western Port
WP Region: Southern Victoria,
within 70 km from Melbournes
CBD (3395 km2)
It has:
Significant agricultural Significant agricultural
production (gross value of
$520 million =6% of
Victoria)
Important commercial and
agricultural fisheries
Major port activities (Port of
Hastings)
Major conservation and
Environmental values
(UNESCO Biosphere)
Westernport Region Threats
Pressures of increasing population (2006 =195,000 inh;
it is forecasted 280,000 by 2011 and 370,000 by 2021)
Changing land-use and emerging urban developments
at high rate (70 80% of native vegetation has been
already cleared) affecting catchment hydrology, water
use and soil health at an unprecedented rate
Inappropriate land management practices
Habitat and species loss (aquatic & terrestrial)
Water Pollution (P, N.)
High sediment inputs to Western Port bay are
contributing to losses of seagrass and slow recovery
rates.
Climate Change (temperature increase aquatic and
terrestrial , sea level rise,
Modelling Conceptual Framework
User Interface (Maps, Tables and Graphics)
Stakeholders
Define a problem Evaluate Solutions
Input Output
Model Management System
SLEUTH LUIM CAT Atlantis Invitro
Multi-criteria
Model
MSE
Scenario
Management
Model
(Spatial) Database Management System (GIS-based)
LandUse Soil Attributes
Topography
(Slope, Elevation,
Orientation)
Vegetation
(EVC Native
Plantation)
Species
(Animal Habitat)
Climate (Rainfall,
Temperature)
Socio-economic
characteristics
Management
SLEUTH
Cellular Automata model
Monte Carlo Simulation
Driven by past growth trends
SLEUTH
Pilot Study Development Process
Initial state:
Land use 2006
Predicted
Land Use
2015
Predicted
Land Use
2030
Predicted
Land Use
2050
NewScenario:
Modifiedscenario as Modifiedscenario as
consequence of
different management
strategy/policies E2 Catchment processes/hydrological model
2006
-P, TS, N(kg/year)
-Freshwater(ml/year)
2015Predicted for dry and
wet years
-P, TS, N (kg/year)
-Freshwater (ml/year)
wet years
- P, TS, N (kg/year)
wet years
- P, TS, N (kg/year)
Marine Modelling
SLEUTH provides a useful tool to predict the impact of
policies on land use change and urban growth.
Land use change scenarios: urban growth is likely to
encroach on 21% of the agricultural land and around g
2.5% of parks and forests land within the study area.
Integrating land use change modelling with
hydrological modelling offers challenges and
opportunities.
Combining complementary models in a cascade fashion
has shown greater synergism of outcomes as opposed
to running the same models in isolation.
Case Study Shire of Mitchell
Population 31, 595 persons
Area 2864 Sq Km
Amenity Landscape
(tree-change)
Mitchell Shire: fast-growing municipality located on the Hume
Hwy (2864 km2)
Residents employed both locally and within metropolitan
Melbourne
M i l l P k l Milit B i l
Mainly a rural economy, Puckapunyal Military Base is a large
employer
Major industries are agriculture, manufacturing, equipment &
machinery wholesaling
Requires strategic planning to protect agricultural land and
manage residential advancement from metropolitan Melbourne
Management
SLEUTH used to generate business as usual scenario
What if? Planning Support System (PSS) incorporates
GIS data to create scenarios concerning
future population growth and residential densities
future employment trends and employment densities
public policies for conserving land
projected demand for local land uses
Is a rule-based model that incorporates explicit rules for
Determining relative suitability of different locations
Projecting future land use demands
Allocating projected demand to most suitable sites
Collaborative scenario planning approach with Mitchell
Shire Planners
SLEUTH Business as Usual Scenario Mitchell Shire
What If?
MCE suitability model
Driven by population projects
What if? Factor Suitability GUI
Land suitability for Business Purposes with all agricultural land use
convertible: a developer-centric, suitability-based scenario.
Land suitability for Business Purposes with no agricultural
land use convertible: a conservation-oriented scenario
Developer centric scenario for Mitchell Shire in 2030
Management
Agriculture protection scenario for Mitchell Shire in 2030
Multiple scenarios produce different outcomes for Shire, e.g.
aligning scenario with current Shire planning policies results
in an almost 4000 ha reduction in grazing land.
Combining GIS data on existing land-use and statistics on
population growth has proved an effective visualisation tool
in aiding the communitys understanding of present landuse,
future considerations and evaluation of alternative policies
DPI are working directly with Mitchell Shire Council to design
suitability and demand scenario assumptions around
Public policies for controlling growth
Policies for preserving open space and agricultural land
Staged expansion of residential / infrastructure
SW Victoria (Glenelg-Hopkins/Corangamite) :
~30,000 km2, population about 455,000
Covers range of farming dairy, grains, forestry, fisheries,
broadacre grazing
South West Victoria
Includes irrigated and dryland dairy systems
Has a motivated community
representative group (SWCCF)
Planners are interested a
Range of climate change
Related questions.
South West Victoria
Summary - SPDSS Framework
Policy &
Decision-
Making
Community & Stakeholder
Engagement
Scenario
Modelling
Analysis
Forecasting
Design
Landscape
Visualisation
2D, 3D, 4D
TBL
Evaluation
Indicators
Spatial Decision Support System
Scenario
Modelling
Analysis
Forecasting
Design
Landscape
Visualisation
2D, 3D, 4D
Peri-urban planning
Rural planning
Challenges facing urban and regional
sustainability research
Educational Bridging the gap between planners
GIScience and simulation modellers.
Institutional Better cross-organisational collaboration.
Systems Smarts linked up data, information and
knowledge e-Research.
Provision of timely advice to support evidenced based
decision-making.
Need to more effectively engage end-users and the
community in planning process.
Undertake an integrated systems approach to
addressing problems.
Dont reinvent the wheel. There are plenty of robust
models out there.
Management
Additional Resources
Geographical Visualisation Portal
http://www.dpi.vic.gov.au/dpi/vro/vrosite.nsf/pages/geovis
Applied GIS J ournal Vol 2 No 3 Dec 2006 Applied GIS J ournal Vol 2 No 3.Dec 2006
Strategic thinking for improved regional planning and natural
resources management Strategic thinking for improved regional
planning and natural resources management
Further information
Christopher.pettit@dpi.vic.gov.au
DAVIDSON - Facilitating Emergence
12
Neil Davidson et al
Facilitating Emergence?
Neil Davidson et al.
Facilitating Emergence?
Developing the resources to map existing
systems, model and create future
systems and accelerate transition
Neil Davidson
Collaborative Innovation Systems
Ignorance was bliss
Growing awareness
Growing concern
People starting to move
Individuals Individuals
Small groups
Communities
Emergence is happening
Understanding value of options would give direction
Choose
Knowledge
of impending
Recognise
Current
Social &
Adaptation &
transformation of
Social & Business
Models
Transform
Ethical,
sustainable
social & business
models
for survival
within carrying
capacity
SPECTRUM OF
SCENARIOS
Vision Research & Policy Matrix
Business of Survival-for-the-future
Mitigate
Adapt
Transform
Focus
Act
Whether
we like it or
not, we are
already in
transition
of impending
crises
Ignore
Delay
Business
Models
Continue
business
as usual
Don t
act
Increasingly
redundant
Social & Business
Models
Collapse
SCENARIOS
Unethical,
unsustainable
social & business
models continue
to deplete resources
& pollute
life systems
Survival of Business-as-usual
Whats holding people back?
Understanding of options
Too complex
Choice magazine rating of alternative futures?
Competing/ conflicting messages
About the nature of the problems
About the nature of the solutions
Between what they believe they shoulddo & what
theyre told they must do
Where to? Wheres safe?
Alone? With whom? Who can I trust?
How? When?
A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t
Landscape Diagram starting to map the human system dynamics
f
a
r

f
r
o
m
Self-Organizing
Unorganized
Unpredictable
Random
Surprising
Certainty
A
After Human Systems Dynamics Institute, 2007, adaptedfromGlenda Eoyang
far from close to
c
l
o
s
e

t
o
Organized
Orderly
Predictable
Process friendly
Emergent
Adapting
Pattern friendly
A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t
Different
Disciplines or
Departments
Unorganized
Self-Organizing
Broad roles & Government critical mass
Government
critical mass
traditionally
here
Certainty
A
Admin Implement
Policy
Write
Policy
Research
Policy
Innovation
Policy endorsement by
Cabinet / Company Board
Organized
Institutional resistance
Paradigm defined by those in power
Ignorant? Believe its right dont know?
Change might imply previously wrong
Need to save face/ stay in power y p
Personal gain over societal benefit?
Too many options/ how to choose?
Outcome?
Acceptable limits of change? To whom?
Increasingly redundant models/ technologies
Set of all technically
feasible solutions
Solutions too expensive
Exploring beyond current options
B
e
n
e
f
i
t
s
Whole-of-Life Costs
Constrained
set of feasible
solutions
Solutions not
sustainable
Low High
S
u
s
t
a
i
n
a
b
i
l
i
t
y

B
New ideas
Population distribution culture at time t
1
Cultural centre of
gravity (norm)
Progressives
(alternative ideas)
After AtKisson the Amoeba of Culture, Believing Cassandra 1999
Every discipline, place
or large organisation
has progressives
Can be measured at multiple scales
individual, local, regional, national, global
Cultural shift
t
1
t
2
Shift over time
Population distribution culture at time t
2
Previous cultural
centre of gravity
Organized t
1
Organized t
2
Critical to identify
progressives in a
discipline, place or
organisation and create
containers for exchange
New cultural centre of
gravity (current norm)
New progressives
(alternative ideas)
A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t
Landscape Diagram
f
a
r

f
r
o
m
large
loose
many
Knowing where and when conditions
might exist for self-organizing
Container holds agents
together until system-wide
patterns can form
Difference Provides the
potential for change &
Certainty
A
After Human Systems Dynamics Institute, 2007, adaptedfromGlenda Eoyang
far from close to
c
l
o
s
e

t
o
small
tight
few
defines emergent pattern
Exchange Establishes
connections among
agents & between
individuals & the whole
Create conditions to facilitate
&/or accelerate self-organizing
Providers Users/ Consumers
Product Systems Map of Broad Generic Players
(Project and/or Place specific/ Scalable)
S
Real human systems are complex operating at multiple
scales, across multiple issues, & multiple disciplines
Knowledge
Generation &
Management
Governance
(Davidson, modified Product Systems Approach after Marceau)
B
e
t
t
e
r

P
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e
Supply Demand
A strong system has strong interdependence
strong two-way flows in all directions
A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t
Different
Disciplines Unorganized
Self-Organizing
Communication across disciplines
A
Band of similar thinking
players across
disciplines
Certainty
Admin Implement
Policy
Write
Policy
Research
Policy
Innovation
Organized
A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t
Different
Communication within a discipline
Self-Organizing
A
Communication
protocols
between players
within discipline
Certainty
Admin Implement
Policy
Write
Policy
Research
Policy
Innovation
Organized
Services
Products
Urban System Potential Stakeholders & Broad Relationships
Asset Owners &
Managers
Occupants &
Communities Planning, Design &Engineering
Professions
Infrastructure &Asset Mgt Services
Building Materials &
Technologies
Building, Construction &
other Industries
Wholesalers &
Distributors
S
Product & Service
Users/ Consumers
Product & Service
Provision
Local, State &
Federal Govts
Australian &
International
Standards &
Accreditation
Bodies
Training R&D
Education &
Training
Providers
R&D
Providers
IndustryAssociations &
Professional Bodies
Media,
communicators
Supply
Governance
Bodies & Means
Knowledge
Generation &
Management
Davidson2007
B
e
t
t
e
r

P
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e
Demand
Services
Products
Different Stakeholders & Broad Relationships
Asset Owners &
Managers
Occupants &
Communities Planning, Design &Engineering
Professions
Infrastructure &Asset Mgt Services
Building Materials &
Technologies
Building, Construction &
other Industries
Wholesalers &
Distributors
S
Product & Service
Users/ Consumers
Product & Service
Provision
Local, State &
Federal Govts
Australian &
International
Standards &
Accreditation
Bodies
Training R&D
Education &
Training
Providers
R&D
Providers
IndustryAssociations &
Professional Bodies
Media,
communicators
Supply
Governance
Bodies & Means
Knowledge
Generation &
Management
Davidson2007
B
e
t
t
e
r

P
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e
Demand
Container
Exchanges
red ve; blue +ve
What if our models and social systems are redundant?
Waves of change
(Climate Change/
Peak Oil etc)
Tether Point if we remain
tied to redundant models
and systems
Can only position ourselves
to avoid the worst waves of
change IF we see them
A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t
Different
Disciplines
Systems Design Network

seeking optimum fitness
Unorganized
Self-Organizing
Systems Design Network with respect to roles
A
Band of similar thinking
players across
disciplines
Communication
protocols
between players
within discipline

Certainty
Admin Implement
Policy
Write
Policy
Research
Policy
Innovation
Organized
A
g
r
e
e
m
e
n
t
Different
Self-Organizing
Interface between institutions & Systems Design Network
Systems Design Network
seeking optimum fitness
Certainty
A
Admin Implement
Policy
Write
Policy
Research
Policy
Innovation
Government
critical mass
traditionally
here
Need critical mass
here to facilitate
emergence and
resource it from
current critical mass
Organized
Ethical,
sustainable
social &business
models
for survival
within carrying
capacity
Recognise
Business of Survival
Mitigate
Adapt
Transform
Adaptation &
transformationof
Social &Business
Models
Transform
Act
Systems Design Network seeking optimum fitness
SPECTRUM OF
SCENARIOS
Unethical,
unsustainable
social &business
models continue
to deplete resources
&pollute
life systems
Knowledge
of impending
crises
Current
Social &
Business
Models
Ignore
Delay
Survival of Business
Continue
business
as usual
Choose Focus
Don t
act
Increasingly
redundant
Social &Business
Models
Collapse
Vision Research & Policy Matrix
MACLEOD - Peri-Urbanisation of Rural Landscapes
13
Neil MacLeod et al
Peri-Urbanisation of Rural
Landscapes
Neil MacLeod et al.
Peri-urbanisation of rural landscapes
Ecological homogenisation & social heterogeneity
N.D. MacLeod, F.C. Kearney, T.G. Martin
St Lucia, Qld 4067
Commercial agricultural landscapes
Major post-war trend for agricultural production landscapes:
Farm amalgamation & increased scale of commercial operations.
Application of production-enhancing technologies & management practices.
Decreased population on commercial farms.
Decline in rural service towns.
Characteristic of commercial farm enterprises:
Increased spatial scale & probability of encompassing more land & vegetation types.
SMURT Workshop Melbourne 4 December 2007
p p y p g g yp
Increased adoption of specialised management systems `best practice.
Production & profit-orientation dominant management characteristic.
Fewer people making decisions about a given landscape.
Result is a production landscape notionally characterised by:
Increased ecological heterogeneity.
Decreased social & managerial heterogeneity.
But small pool of sub-commercial holdings & operators awaiting exit:
Particularly in more closely settled areas.
Peri-urban fringe.
Traditional production landscape - S.E.Q.
Commercial agriculture
Grazing Horticulture
Cropping Dairying
Post-production landscapes
Small area - `Amenity land uses
Study region: South East Queensland
Landscape formerly dominated by commercial grazing, dairying,
cropping etc.
Now characterised by:
Increasing population density.
Altered population distribution.
Numerous land uses (many sub-commercial).
Land trading on amenity value cf. `production value.
a d ad g o a e y aue c p oduc o aue
Link between land values & primary productivity severed.
Small scale of individual holdings active subdivision.
These characteristics effectively describe peri-urban/amenity
landscapes.
Some adverse landscape changes are occurring in both landscapes.
Green: <16ha
Pink: 16-100ha
Blue: 100 -1000ha
Purple: 1000+ha
SEQ - Land use & Property size
Blue =grazing
Purple =dairying
Red =horticulture
Is this pattern unique to SEQ?
% of enterprises >$300K agricultural income
Peri-urban/AmenityLandscape
Dominatedby<25% $300K Ag income
Source: National Land &Water Resource Audit
Population growth & biodiversity hotspots
Processes of agricultural landscape change
Intact Intact
Fragmented Variegated
Fragmented Variegated
Relict
Modified
Legend
Unmodified
HighlyModified
Destroyed
Source: ModifiedfromMcIntyre, BarrettandFord(1996).
Landscape dysfunction in grazing lands
Problems of landscape dysfunction are well recognised:
Declining productivity of native & sown pastures.
Reduced drought tolerance of pastures.
Soil structure decline & increased erosion.
Salination of land & water.
Tree decline at landscape scales.
Acidification of soils.
Acidification of soils.
Loss of important plant & animal species (locally & regionally).
Eutrophication of watercourses & lakes.
Encroachment &/or invasions of native & exotic weeds.
Loss of future land use options (e.g. eco-tourism, timber, bush foods).
Key to sustainable land management & retention of high levels of
biodiversity is to stay within ecological limits
Rural landscape typical spatial arrangement
Road
House
Dam
Landscape principles & thresholds
Viable
patches of
trees &
shrubs
~5-10ha
Connectivity
of vegetation
Corridors
~100-200m
Maintaining
woodland cover
>30% landscape
Conservation
areas ~10%
of landscape
Road
House
Dam
Tree buffers on
riparian zone
~50-200m
Vegetation
buffers for
intensive land
uses
Limit area of intensive use <30%
total landscape
Restrict stock
access to
riparian zones &
watercourses
Maintain >30%
ground cover
Maintain
>70% tussock
structure
Peri-urban landscape spatial arrangement
Road
House
Dam
Kooralbyn 2002
Laidley subdivision: 1977-2004
2925 hectares
Designated regional wildlife corridor
Endangered regional ecosystem
Zoned suitable for dog kennels
Allowable pads, fire breaks etc
can remove 20% of vegetation
Intact Variegated Fragmented
Unmodified
habitat
Modified
habitat
Highly
modified
habitat
Destroyed
h bit t
>90% 60- 90% 10- 40% <10%
% Native
vegetation
100ha
Land
subdivision
gradient
Relictual
Landscape fragmentation peri-urban
habitat
Stream ~25ha
~2 -8ha
Vegetationloss and modificationgradient
Remediation
BiodiversityLoss
Source: Martin et al. in press
Overgrazing
Reduced regenerative capacity
Vegetation simplification
Landscape disconnection
Weeds & pests increase
Scale issues patch management
Salinity
Infrastructure intrusion
Increased human presence
Traffic & disturbance gradients
Exotic spp, water & fertility changes
Resource capture & parkland transformation
Paradox conflicting land uses?
Implications
Conventional models of vegetation & landscape change:
Derived from ecological studies of production landscapes, forests etc.
Underpin most NRM thinking for Australian landscapes.
Peri-urban landscape change:
Involves most forms of landscape dysfunction of agricultural landscapes.
Is rapidly occurring over large tracts of the national landscape esp. hotspots.
Has some critical additional dimensions.
Additional dimensions:
Additional dimensions:
Sub-division of management scales cf. landscape ecological scales.
Significant human presence cf. agriculture.
Hard infrastructure impacts.
Limited scope for viable refugia & formal conservation reserves.
Result is a landscape that is:
Simplifying ecologically at a rapid pace.
Becoming more heterogeneous socially.
Models that incorporate the additional dimensions:
More likely to predict actual ecological trajectory of peri-urban landscapes.
Urgently required.
CSE Rangelands & Savannas
N.D. MacLeod
Principal Research Scientist
Phone: 07-32142270
Email: neil.macleod@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au/cse
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Thank you
ARCHER - Agricultural Value Chain Resilience under Urbanizing Pressures
14
Ainsley Archer
Agricultural Value Chain Resilience
Under Urbanizing Pressures
Ainsley Archer
Agricultural Value Chain Resilience Under
Urbanizing Pressures
Ainsley Archer
Tu Ton
Cameron Fletcher
Craig Miller
Andrew Higgins
Ryan McAllister
Contents
How agricultural value chains (AVC) fit in to urban and
sustainability
Defining resilience
Conferring resilience in agricultural systems
Problems we want to address and how we go about addressing
them
CSIRO.
Future directions
AVC contributor to Urban Metabolism*
Urban
Resources
Food
Energy
Water
Other Materials
Urban Systems
Structures and
Functions
Urban Land and Water
Urban Infrastructure
EcosystemServices
Urban Systems
Outputs
Industrial Products and
Services
Knowledge
W t dOth
Food
Systems
contributions
to waste
production
in cities
Agricultural
chains are the
roots of Food
flows into cities
CSIRO.
Capital
Information
Distribution of Goods
Provision of Urban Services
Urban Governance
Urban Design and Development
Wastes and Other
Emissions
Urban Systems Indicators
Health and Well Being
Environmental Health
Culture and Heritage
Air and Water Pollution
Levels, Noise Levels etc.
Resource efficiency
from Linear to
Circular Flows
*FromAllen Kearns
Greenhouse profile - overall
CSIRO.
ACF, 2007
Effects of urbanisation of rural and peri-urban
landscapes
The nourishing rootsof Cities
Local (short) roots
National (medium-length) roots
International (long) roots
Increased food demand pressure
High population concentration
Diversified demand
CSIRO.
Diversified demand
Ethnic communities
Income driven food demand
Land use cover change
Urban sprawl / peri-urbanisation
Changed water, energy demands
Pollution
Air
Noise
Water/soil
Defining is resilience in terms of AVC
The capacity of a system to undergo disturbance or
perturbation and maintain its defining structure, functions and
controls by absorbing the disturbance and reorganising
(Gunderson & Holling 2001; Folke et al 2004; Walker et al
2004).
For AVCs: the capacity to adapt itself in order to maintain
CSIRO.
processes in or return them to desirable states in the event of a
value chain disturbance
Conferring dynamic capacity
Walker et al. (2006) propose a starting point for researching
change in complex social-ecological systems, such as
agricultural value chains:
adaptive cycle,
panarchy,
resilience
Dynamics within and
across scales
CSIRO.
resilience,
adaptability and
transformability,
All are interlinked in complex adaptive system dynamics, and
can lead to system self-organization and dynamic stability, or
system collapse
Given this it is important that one has a clear idea of what
belongs to resilience vs other dynamic capacities
Social-ecological properties
determining system dynamics
Questions to address
How do we quantify AVC resilience?
What characteristics of AVC confer or reduce resilience?
What are the trade-offs between efficiency, profit and
resilience?
What are the opportunities and necessities in linking AVC
research with urban sustainability issues?
CSIRO.
Aspects of AVC that confer /reduce resilience
Ecological capacity
Management capacity confers resilience
Management Capacity
Chain Networks
Management Strategy
CSIRO.
Management Strategy
Individual Adaptive Capacity
Chain Networks
Chains as networks (interactions between individuals)
Agricultural chains are comprised of potentially thousands of
participants (Archer et al, 2007)
Redundancy
Purposeful behaviour of agents
Willingness/dedication to form alliances influences the integrity of
CSIRO.
the chain
Chain member Management Strategy
How they conceive of their role
and capacities (Galliers, 1995)
Agent management strategy
Intensive or extensive
Productivity (per unit input)
Low or high (nat. environment
driven)
i
t
y
H
i
g
h
CSIRO.
Networks can influence
management strategy by agents
Management Intensity
P
r
o
d
u
c
t
i
v
High Low
L
o
w
Individual Adaptive Capacity
Human-environment interaction (Land Use Cover Change
research (see Parker et al, 2004; Castella et al, 2005; Schmit
and Rounsevell, 2006)
Human-Institution interaction(Happe et al, 2006, Heckbert et
al., 2005)
Capacity to respond but what about capacity to learn?
CSIRO.
Knowledge/information availability
Management capacity (wisdom?)
The system structure
Natural Environment
Inputs, waste, feedback, geophysical structure, biological functions
Network: value chain components
Nodes
Inputs, producers, finishers (feedlot), processors, wholesalers, retailers,
consumer
Interactions (Social Structure)
CSIRO.
Networks
Communication
Economic
Values, prices, market requirements
Description of the value chain components
Beef production value chain description
SE Queensland model
National production data (ABARE, CRC data)
Sectors described according to Meat RDC value chain (1995)
Production
Cow-calf, Backgrounding, Finishing
CSIRO.
Processing
Marketing
Wholesale, retail
Consumption
Demographic descriptions
Population patterns to be used to gauge consumption
modelling outputs (red =hotter / better)
Couples with children Singles
CSIRO.
Rickwood, 2007
Chain characteristics that confer resilience
Whole chain
Capital flows
Product flows
Governance arrangements
Networks within the chain
Agents (upstream from consumers)
CSIRO.
Management strategy
Management capacity
Desire to network (horizontal, vertical)
Behavioural influence (sub-nets)
Knowledge transfer
Function of age
Function of desire to network
Communication type
Communication type*
Public Protected Private Hidden
CSIRO.
*Hayes & Roth, (1988) Blackboard architecture: Shared data structure
with permission levels to control access.
Measuring AVC resilience
Degree of Chain disruption Craighead 2007
Severity of a supply chain disruption can be defined as the number
of entities (or nodes) within a supply network whose ability to ship
and/or receive goods and materials has been hampered by an
unplanned event. [I would add operate or perform processes]
Chain Characteristics
Density, complexity, node criticality
CSIRO.
y, p y, y
Mitigation Capabilities
Recovery, warning
Future directions and potential projects
Applications of our model to peri-urban expansion in SE QLD
(and other capital cities)
TropLands and US health, environmental and economic impacts of
urbanisation of peri-urban agricultural land
Acquiring more data to verify some of our assumptions
PAR to capture chain-member views
P t i ith D i A t li dB f CRC
CSIRO.
Partnering with Dairy Australian and Beef CRC
An improved basis for investment in Theme 2 of the Agriculture
Sustainability Initiative to maximise long-term benefits at the
value chain and environmental interface
Use model in conjunction with other complex models being
developed to consider the effects of globalisation on Urban
environments, food systems and human
health with increased urbanisation and changing cultural
patterns
Dr Ainsley Archer
Systems modeler
Phone: +61 7 3214 2253
Email: Ainsley.Archer@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au
Thank you
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au
FLETCHER - Sustainable Management of Urbanizing Landscapes in Coastal QLD
15
Cameron Fletcher et al
Sustainable Management of
Urbanizing Landscapes in
Coastal Queensland
Cameron Fletcher et al.
Sustainable management of urbanizing
landscapes in coastal Queensland
Cameron S. Fletcher, Peter C. Roebeling, David. W. Hilbert
5 December 2007
Inspiration
A model of urbanization in environmentally valuable areas
Tree change and sea change urbanization
Impacts of urbanization on environmental management
A spatially explicit model of urbanization
Heterogeneous distribution of environmental amenities create spatially
structured development patterns
A process driven model of peri-urbanization
CSIRO SMURT, Melbourne, 5 December 2007
A process driven model of peri-urbanization
Location of infrastructure disproportionately important in peri-urban development
An understanding of the difference between short term opportunistic
development and socially optimal outcomes
Economic instruments to redress this imbalance
A dynamic feedback model of the interactions between urban
development and environmentally valuable areas
If we can model how naturally beautiful areas attract development, and we can
model how development degrades the natural environment in an area, can we
step back and describe the interlinked system as a whole?
Economic optimization models
Economic optimization models:
are directly relatable to micro-scale decisions (parameterizable)
scale up to provide community-wide trends (measurable)
can be solved analytically to provide global optima (optimizable)
but, they also:
need to make simplifying assumptions to remain analytically tractable
eedto a e s p y g assu pto s to e a a aytca yt actabe
need to be solved numerically for realistic scenarios
Alonso-Muth-Mills
Households will optimize their residential location by trading off
commuting cost to the city centre versus land prices. The maximum
rent a household is willing to pay for a unit of land will adjust for
difference in accessibility to the city centre so as to maintain a given
level of utility
Mills, E.S. and B. Hamilton, 1994. Urban Economics. 5th edition, Harper-Collins.
Alonso-Muth-Mills demand side
( )
( )
=
1
,
, max Z Q Z Q U
Z Q
i
x
i i
h
i
x p Z Q P y + + = subject to
U is utility
Q is household area
Z is a numerary good
represents a households preference for land
P
h
is the bid-rent price a household pays per unit area
p
x
is the annual commuting cost to the CBD
Alonso-Muth-Mills
( )
( )
=
1
,
, max Z Q Z Q U
Z Q
i
x
i i
h
i
Solve equilibrium system to find bid-rent price for land at
different locations
Solve equivalent system for supply-side land development price
Equate equilibrium bid-rent price payable by householders with
price required for development to find area developed
House exogenously determined population in utility-maximising
locations
Spatially symmetric with two income groups
Group 1 Group 2 Group 1 +Group 2
Spatially heterogeneous environmental amenities
Alonso-Muth-Mills
Households will optimize their residential location by trading off
commuting cost to the city centre versus land prices. The maximum
rent a household is willing to pay for a unit of land will adjust for
difference in accessibility to the city centre so as to maintain a given
level of utility.
Wu et al
Wu et. al.
Wu extends the Alonso-Muth-Mills approach to a static two-dimensional
spatially explicit model to examine the impact of exogenous geographic
features, such as a shore-line or a scenic hill, on land development
patterns. In other publications, he addresses the interaction between
endogenous social amenities(e.g. provision of public services) and
different income groups. More recently, Wu and Irwin extended this
model to develop a dynamic spatially explicit model to explore the
interaction between land use pattern and water quality.
Wu, J ., 2006. Environmental amenities, urban sprawl, and communitycharacteristics.
J ournal of Environmental Economics and Management52: 527-547.
Wu et. al. demand side
( )
( )
E Z Q E Z Q U
Z Q
=
1
,
, , max
i
x
i i
h
i
2 1
1
i i
z z
e ea e ea E

+ + = where
U is utility
Q is household area
Z is a numerary good
represents a households preference for land
P
h
is the bid-rent price a household pays per unit area
p
x
is the annual commuting cost to the CBD
E is environmental amenity
represents a households preference for environmental amenity
2 1
1
i
e ea e ea E + + = where
Scenario assessment
Scenario 0 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Base Run Environ. Amenities
(+2)
Commuting costs
(+10%)
Environmental credit
(5 times oppy value)
Group 1 Group 2 Group 1 Group 2 Group 1 Group 2 Group 1 Group 2
Land use (ha):
Residential
Agriculture
78.6 107.2
1024.1
78.0 88.7
1043.3
79.5 103.4
1027.1
78.0 105.2
1026.8
Household density (#/ha)
Housing area (100 m
2
)
Other goods (units)
15.9
2.4
123.0
11.6
3.9
197.0
16.0
2.3
122.0
14.1
3.0
157.0
15.7
2.4
124.0
12.2
3.7
186.0
16.0
2.3
121.6
11.9
3.8
193.4
Land use pattern
Group 1 Group 2 Group 1 +Group 2
Applying these techniques to the real world
Economic optimization models:
are directly relatable to micro-scale decisions (parameterizable)
scale up to provide society-wide trends (measurable)
can be solved analytically to provide global optima (optimizable)
but, they also:
need to make simplifying assumptions to remain analytically tractable
eedto a e s p y g assu pto s to e a a aytca yt actabe
need to be solved numerically for realistic scenarios
We can use the basic model weve shown above to investigate
a real case study by:
implementing the basic model analytically
parameterizing micro-scale decisions using best available data
solving locally optimal bid-rent price analytically
incorporating analytic solutions into a numerical simulation
Urbanising coastal landscapes - 1991
Port
Douglas
Mossman
Forest Ocean Sugar Grazing River Residential Wetland
Port
Douglas
Mossman
Port
Douglas
Mossman
Environmental impacts
Development has both positive and negative effects:
With increased development land value increases to yield net positive
terrestrial benefits
With increased development pollution loads to water systems increase
Increased pollution loads yield net negative marine benefits
In Mossman Shire:
Terrestrial benefits due to agriculture: ~$10m
Terrestrial benefits due to agriculture and residential: ~$28m
Marine benefits due to tourism and fisheries: ~$18m
Marine benefits due to non-use: ~$4m
What is a socially optimal level of development?
And how do we get there?
where: B
ter
(Q
t
) terrestrial benefits - increasing function of
[ ]
) , (
) ( ) (
0
t t t
rt
t mar t ter
Q
Q P f P
dt e P B Q B W Max
t
=
+ =
subject to:
catchment population Q
B
mar
(P
t
) marine benefits - decreasing function of
water pollution level P
equation of motion for level of water pollution P
( )
P
Q P
Q
f r
f
Q
*
such that:
where:
( ) ) ( ) ( ,
t mar t ter t t
P B Q B Q P + =
P
2 10 4
10 * 24 . 4 10 * 22 . 1 28 . 26 ) (
t t t ter
Q Q Q B

+ =
- equation of motion for level of water pollution P based on
hydrological model SedNet/ANNEX to determine water pollution from
catchment land use patterns, including water pollutant budgets for river
B
ter
(Q
t
) - terrestrial benefits due to housing development - increasing
function of catchment population Q:
P

B
mar
(P
t
) - marine benefits - relationship between water pollution and
marine values not well known, but decreasing function of water pollution
level P:
t t t t t t
P Q Q Q P P + + =
2 8
10 * 84 . 9 02 . 0 58 . 241 ) , (
t t mar
P P B
2 1
) ( =
networks and water pollutant delivery for catchment land use patterns,
as a function of catchment population Q:
Environmental impacts - results
Q
t
=12,000 Q
t
=26,000 Q
t
=55,000
Socially optimal solutions
Welfare maximizing catchment populations (Q
*
)
Marginal water pollution costs (A$/t)
r
2
= 0
2
= 1,000
2
= 2,000
2
= 3,000
2
= 4,000
2
= 5,000
Current catchment population Q =12,000
0.0% 143,454 97,733 66,505 43,822 26,599 13,075
2.5% 143,454 98,642 67,797 45,269 28,094 14,567
5.0% 143,454 99,516 69,046 46,675 29,552 16,025
7.5% 143,454 100,356 70,255 48,041 30,974 17,450
10.0% 143,454 101,165 71,425 49,369 32,360 18,844
Conclusions
We have created a spatially explicit model of urbanization
driven by environmental amenity
Economic optimization model that can be parameterized by household
decisions, but can scale up to provide community-wide trends
We have used the model to predict the spatial structure
urbanization in tree-change and sea-change communities
Shown that urbanization in naturally valuable areas will sprawl along
environmental boundaries
We have investigated the impact of urbanization on the natural
environment, and identified socially optimal configurations
Urgently need to establish economic impacts of pollution
We are developing a dynamic feedback model of the
interactions between urban development and environmentally
valuable areas
If urbanization degrades environmental amenity, will it self-limit?
Dr Cameron Fletcher
Complex systems scientist (Socioecology)
Phone: +61 7 4091 8820
Email: Cameron.Fletcher@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au
Thank you
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au
GROZEV - NEMSIM as a Long-term Agent-based Simulation and Scenario Exploration Tool for
Electricity Market Development
16
George Grozev
NEMSIM as a Long-term, Agent-based
Simulation and Scenario Exploration Tool
for Electricity Market Development
George Grozev
NEMSIM as a Long-term,
Agent-based Simulation and
Scenario Exploration Tool for
2
George Grozev
Urban Systems Program,
CSIRO SustainableEcosystems
SMURT Workshop
4 6 December 2007
CSE/CMIT
Acknowledgements
Dr. George Grozev
Mr. Per da Silva
Dr. Pramesh Chand
Dr. Chi-hsiang Wang
Dr. Xiaoming Wang
NEMSIM & GENERSYS Research and Development Group
CMAR
Dr. Marcus Thatcher
Dr. David Batten
Dr. J ack Katzfey
Mr. Paul Taliangis
Mr. Tennyson Wickham
Core Collaborative
3
Dr. J ohn Mo
Mr. Shanon McQuay
Mr. Miles Anderson (CMIS)
Mr. Mario Sammut (CMIS)
Mr. Geoff Lewis - contractor
Mr. Scott Maves - contractor
Dr. Xinmin Hu
Swinburne University
of Technology
Prof. Myles Harding
Mr. Neale Taylor
UNSW
Mr. Paul Graham
Mr. Terry J ones
ET Flagship
AGL Energy
Mr. Stephen Dwayhe
Mr. Chrys Chandraraj
Ms. Tracy Lavender
Mr. Paul Ashby
Topics
Overview and background
The story about NEMSIM
Electricity demand
Bidding
4
GHG Emissions
Investment modelling
Development & Commercialisation
Analysis & summary
Questions & comments
Simulation of Electricity and Gas Markets
Major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,
Significant cost of investment,
Innovative sustainable solutions for pressing energy needs,
Complexity of electricity and gas markets,
Decision making under uncertainty,
Models and simulates the electricity market up to 30 years in the
future,
Why
5
,
Applies agent-based simulation to companies decision making,
Constructs electricity demand based on climate data and usage
patterns,
Calculates electricity generation, prices, GHG emissions and fuel usage,
Evaluates new investment in generation,
Commercial version known as GENERSYS is under development in
partnership with two companies.
How
The NEM Model
QLD
Directlink Directlink
500 Capacityin MW
500 500
180 180
180 180
QLD
Directlink Directlink
500 Capacityin MW
500 500
180 180
180 180
6
SNO
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Murraylink Murraylink
Basslink Basslink
SNO SNO- -VIC VIC
SNO SNO- -NSW NSW
VIC VIC- -SA SA
QNI QNI
500 500
250 250
200 200
200 200 1000 1000
180 180
3000 3000
1150 1150
1000 1000
1900 1900
300 300
600 600
SNO
NSW
VIC
SA
TAS
Murraylink Murraylink
Basslink Basslink
SNO SNO- -VIC VIC
SNO SNO- -NSW NSW
VIC VIC- -SA SA
QNI QNI
500 500
250 250
200 200
200 200 1000 1000
180 180
3000 3000
1150 1150
1000 1000
1900 1900
300 300
600 600
Infrastructure Market Maturity
7
Source: Lowik & Hobbs (2006).
Infrastructure to 2030, Volume 2, OECD
Brief history of the project
J uly 2002: A postdoc position awarded. Dr. Xinmin Hu started in
Nov. 2002.
J anuary 2003: Initial funding from CSIROs Centre for Complex
Systems Science;
October 2003: Commenced as a project in CSIROs Energy
Transformed Flagship Program;
April 2004: Contract with Swinburne University of Technology to co-
8
develop the NEMSIM prototype;
April 2005: NEMSIM Industry Focus Group Meeting (Mercure Hotel,
Melbourne);
J uly 2006: Development and License agreements signed with Core
Collaborative Pty Ltd. to commercialise NEMSIM under the name
GENERSYS;
February 2007: Development agreement signed between Core
Collaborative and AGL for providing AGL with a license to use
GENERSYS and AGL to participate in the development.
Overview of NEMSIM
F el GHG
Companies
Contract Market
Spot Market
Investment Agents
Clusters of
Generating
Plants
Generating
Units
Transmission
Lines
Demand Prices
Dispatch Bidding
S
im
u
la
t
e
d

S
c
e
n
a
r
io
Historical
Data
Technical
Infrastructure
Agents
&
Markets
Electricit
T
im
e
H
o
riz
o
n
s
30 min
Dispatch
Daily
Decisions
Weekly
Decisions
Monthly
Decisions
Yearly
Decisions
User
Input
DG
F el GHG
Companies
Contract Market
Spot Market
Investment Agents
Clusters of
Generating
Plants
Generating
Units
Transmission
Lines
Demand Prices
Dispatch Bidding
S
im
u
la
t
e
d

S
c
e
n
a
r
io
Historical
Data
Technical
Infrastructure
Agents
&
Markets
Electricit
T
im
e
H
o
riz
o
n
s
30 min
Dispatch
Daily
Decisions
Weekly
Decisions
Monthly
Decisions
Yearly
Decisions
30 min
Dispatch
Daily
Decisions
Weekly
Decisions
Monthly
Decisions
Yearly
Decisions
User User
Input
DG
9
Fuel
Resources
GHG
Emissions
Power Losses
Simulation Engine
Reports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3
Graphs
Environment
Simulation
Log
Tables
Electricity
Supplied
Daily
Bidding
Spot
Prices
Demand
Evolution
Contract
Prices
Supply
Evolution
Investment
Decisions
GHG
Emissions
Longer Term
Decisions
Scenario Evaluation
Data Input
Fuel
Resources
GHG
Emissions
Power Losses
Simulation Engine
Reports
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3
Graphs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3
Graphs
Environment
Simulation
Log
Tables Tables
Electricity
Supplied
Daily
Bidding
Spot
Prices
Demand
Evolution
Contract
Prices
Supply
Evolution
Investment
Decisions
GHG
Emissions
GHG
Emissions
Longer Term
Decisions
Longer Term
Decisions
Scenario Evaluation
Data Input
Scalable (SVG) User Interface
10
Specific Modelling Features
Demand Prices
Dispatch Bidding
Historical
Data
Electricity
Demand
Demand Prices
Dispatch Bidding
Historical
Data
Electricity
Demand
11
Fuel
Resources
GHG
Emissions
Contract Market
Spot Market
Market Operator
Cluster of DG
Generating
Plants
Generating
Units
Transmission
Lines
Power Losses
Environment
Technical
Infrastructure
Agents
&
Markets
Electricity
Supplied
Companies
Generation
investment
GHG
Calculator
Fuel
Resources
GHG
Emissions
Contract Market
Spot Market
Market Operator
Cluster of DG
Generating
Plants
Generating
Units
Transmission
Lines
Power Losses
Environment
Technical
Infrastructure
Agents
&
Markets
Electricity
Supplied
Companies
Generation
investment
GHG
Calculator
Inter-regional Coupling between
Climate and Electricity Demand
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
MODEL
GLOBAL
CLIMATE
Daily climate
24 hr demand
(30 min steps)
NSW NSW
VIC VIC
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
MODEL
12
CLIMATE
MODEL
(DOWN-
SCALLED)
NEMSIM
QLD QLD
SA SA
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
MODEL
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
MODEL
ELECTRICITY
DEMAND
MODEL TAS TAS
Examples of Constructed
Electricity Demand Datasets
The model robustly describes the qualitative behavioural changes in
electricity consumption between seasons.
This give us confidence in anticipating future changes to demand
behaviour as a consequence of global warming.
13000
S li
13
Examples of demand reconstruction for a typical summer day (left) and winter day (right) in NSW. Note how
the models qualitative behaviour changes due to different input temperatures.
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
0
:0
0
3
:0
0
6
:0
0
9
:0
0
1
2
:0
0
1
5
:0
0
1
8
:0
0
2
1
:0
0
0
:0
0
Time
D
e
m
a
n
d
(M
W
)
Observed
Model
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
0
:0
0
3
:0
0
6
:0
0
9
:0
0
1
2
:0
0
1
5
:0
0
1
8
:0
0
2
1
:0
0
0
:0
0
Time
D
e
m
a
n
d
(M
W
)
Observed
Model
Summer cooling
Winter heating
Modelling of Decision Making
and Agent-based Simulation
Bidding
(daily)
14
Contracting
(monthly)
Investment
(yearly)
Time
Bidding Models
Static: Simple, Lookup, Select, File, Historic
Dynamic: based on rules price, demand, reserve capacity.
high prices high prices
P
P8
P
9
P
10
P
P8
P
9
P
10
Q Q Q
Q
8,48
Q
8,2
Q
8,1
Q
9,48
Q
9,2
Q
9,1
Q
10,48
Q
10,2
Q
10,1
Q Q Q
Q
8,48
Q
8,2
Q
8,1
Q
9,48
Q
9,2
Q
9,1
Q
10,48
Q
10,2
Q
10,1
2
4
6
8
10
Y
A
x
is
T
itle
15
Offer price
vector
Offer quantities matrix
4:30am 5:00 4:00am
low prices low prices
P
1
P2
P
3
P
4
P5
P
6
P
7
P
1
P2
P
3
P
4
P5
P
6
P
7
Q1,48 Q1,2 Q1,1
Q
2,48
Q
2,2
Q
2,1
Q
3,48
Q
3,2
Q
3,1
Q4,48 Q4,2 Q4,1
Q
5,48
Q
5,2
Q
5,1
Q
6,48
Q
6,2
Q
6,1
Q7,48 Q7,2 Q7,1
Q1,48 Q1,2 Q1,1
Q
2,48
Q
2,2
Q
2,1
Q
3,48
Q
3,2
Q
3,1
Q4,48 Q4,2 Q4,1
Q
5,48
Q
5,2
Q
5,1
Q
6,48
Q
6,2
Q
6,1
Q7,48 Q7,2 Q7,1
2 4 6 8 10
2
X Axis Title
Dynamic Bidding Example
<LookupBidGenerator id="Test" useNEMMCOData="true
prices="-1000,10,25,50,100,500,1000,2000,5000,9000">
<GeneratingUnitRef plant="Bayswater" ref="BW01"/>
16
<Bid props="0.10,0.10,0,0.20,0.20,0.25,0,0,0,0.25" tradingIntervals="1-10,39-48"/>
<Bid props="0.0,0.10,0,0.20,0.20,0.25,0,0,0,0.35" tradingIntervals="11-38"/>
<Bid props="0.10,0,0.10,0.20,0.25,0,0,0,0,0.35" tradingIntervals="49-96"/>
<Bid props="0.20,0,0,0.20,0.25,0,0,0,0.35,0" tradingIntervals="97-144"/>
<DynamicBid type="demand" props="0,0.8,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.2" interval="8000-10000"/>
<DynamicBid type="reserve_capacity" props="0,0.0,0.3,0.4,0.3,0,0,0,0,0.0"
interval="2000-3000" basedOnRegion="VIC"/>
<DynamicBid type="price" props="0,0.5,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.5" interval="20-60" />
</LookupBidGenerator>
NEMSIM total and specific regional
GHG emissions per year
17
Generator Emissions
18
Regional Emissions Example
150
200
CO2 equivalent emissions for 20002005 (business as usual)
k
i
l
o
t
o
n
n
e
)
19
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
50
100
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
NSW
VIC
QLD
SA
Time(year)
E
m
i
s
s
i
o
n

(
k
Generation Investment
Based on a generic cost model,
Long term decision (evaluated for 30 years),
A hybrid NPV & Real options approach; net present
value approach may not be good enough to capture
the price volatility and not good for peaking plants
for example,
20
for example,
Differentiate between companies based on
performance, ability to anticipate the demand
growth, risk appetite and learning capabilities,
Takes into accounts normal prices that reflect the
SRMC and jump prices that are associated with
supply scarcity.
Development Environment
J ava programming language,
Eclipse development environment,
Subversion - an open-source revision control
system,
21
Trac - is a web-based software project
management and bug/issue tracking system,
XML-based simulation configuration,
Open source libraries (Batik SVG toolkit,
J FreeChart, etc.).
Commercialisation
C
o
m
m
e
r
c

R
e
a
d
y

G
r
22
c
i
a
l
r
a
n
t
Analysis
NEMSIM allows to build
comprehensive energy scenarios
for electricity and gas in
Australia.
The tool allows to evaluate
possible future scenarios from
sustainability point of view
23
sustainability point of view,
estimating GHG emissions and
required fuel resources.
Efficient algorithms and
modelling essential components
allow good performance for
simulation periods up to 30 years
in the future.
Analysis - continued
Dependencies between events and decision making
at different time scales are essential. Modelling
typical behaviour is not enough.
A simulation method developed for constructing
regional electricity data sets at 30 minutes intervals,
which are consistent with climate change scenarios.
24
g
Argonne National Laboratory developed EMCAS
also based on agent-based simulation for electricity
markets.
Agent-based simulation presents its challenges in
abstracting behaviour and adapting learning
algorithms.
Summary
NEMSIM, a simulation system developed by CSIROs
Energy Transformed Flagship project to analyse the
operation of Australias National electricity and gas
markets.
NEMSIM represents the electricity and gas markets
as an evolving system of complex interactions
b b h k h l
25
g y p
between company behaviour in markets, technical
infrastructures and the natural environment.
Users of NEMSIM/GENERSYS are able to explore
various evolutionary pathways and future
development scenarios of energy markets (gas and
electricity).
Questions and discussion
26
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap061016.html
In the Shadow of Saturn
TUCKER - Life Cycle Assessment of the Built Environment
17
Selwyn Tucker
Life Cycle Assessment of the Built
Environment
Selwyn Tucker
Life Cycle Assessment of the Built Environment
Selwyn Tucker
SMURT Workshop
5 December 2007
Impact of constructing buildings
Human Health Human Health
Ozone Layer Ozone Layer
Ecotoxicity Ecotoxicity
Climate Change Climate Change
Embodied Embodied
Water Water
Respiratory Respiratory
Organics Organics
CSIRO. SMURT Workshop 5 December 2007
Climate Change Climate Change
Embodied Energy Embodied Energy
Acidification Acidification
Respiratory Inorganics Respiratory Inorganics
Minerals Minerals
Organics Organics
Fossil Fuels Fossil Fuels
Radiation Radiation
Eutrophication Eutrophication
Carcinogens Carcinogens
Land Use Land Use
Emission and effects of (persistent) toxic chemicals
Greenhouse effect (global warming)
Ozone depletion
Consumption of non-renewable resources
Acidification and/or eutrophication
Undesirable Global Impacts
Acidification and/or eutrophication
Damage to marine ecosystem
Constant growing human population and activity
Increasingly use of larger part of the earth (land use)
Waste
..
Making the right environmental choice
How do you take environmental factors into account when
you buy a service or product, or undertake an activity?
How do you know you are making the right choice?
How could you better make that decision?
Life Cycle Assessment
A systematic set of procedures for compiling and
examining the inputs and outputs of materials and
energy and the associated environmental impacts
directly attributable to the functioning of a product or
service system throughout its life cycle.
R
What is Life Cycle Assessment ?
Raw
material
extraction
Manufacturing Transportation Use
Disposal
What does LCA include ?
The entire life cycle of the product, process or activity
encompassing
extracting and processing raw materials
manufacturing
transportation and distribution
use, re-use and maintenance
li
recycling
final disposal
Time frames for Life Cycle Assessment
Raw material
extraction
Manufacturing Transportation Use Disposal
Cradle-to-grave Cradle-to-gate Gate-to-gate
LCA focus
Environmental impacts of the system under study in
areas of
ecological health
human health
resource depletion
Impact assessment
Assignment of relative values or weights to different impacts
to allow decision makers to assimilate full range of impacts
Formal methods rather than value judgement
Does not address
economic considerations, or
social effects
LCA framework (ISO)
Standards
ISO 14040 Life Cycle Assessment
- Principles and Guidelines
- Life Cycle Inventory Analysis
- Impact Assessment
- Interpretation
- Data Documentation Format
- Examples for the application of ISO 14041
Life cycle assessment definition (ISO)
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a technique for assessing
the potential environmental aspects and potential aspects
associated with a product (or service), by:
compiling an inventory of relevant inputs and outputs
evaluating the potential environmental impacts associated
with those inputs and outputs
interpreting the results of the inventory and impact phases in
interpreting the results of the inventory and impact phases in
relation to the objectives of the study
ISO 14040.2 Life Cycle Assessment - Principles and
Guidelines
Inputs and outputs
Raw Material Acquisition
Manufacturing/Processing/
Formulation
INPUT OUTPUT
Energy Water effluents
Airborne emissions
Distribution/Transportation
Use/Reuse/Recycle
Waste Management
Raw
materials
Solid wastes
Other release
Products
system
boundary
(Cradle-to-
Grave)
Life Cycle Inventory
1
2
3
4
Air emission dust in processing 7500.0000 mg
Air emission CO in processing 370000.0000 mg
Air emission CO
2
in processing 500000.0000 mg
Air emission SOx in processing 8000.0000 mg
9015 Dry Process Cement Clinker Formation
Code Input operation Quantity Unit
Rail Transport general freight
612 Solid Waste Mineral Waste
818 0.2646 kg
8xx Coal use in Australia 1.6262 MJ
878 0.3900 MJ
884 0.1870 MJ
888 1.5000 MJ
3542 Road Transport A 18+ tonne 0.0019 v km
3544 0.4800
9014 1.4400 kg Mixture for Cement Making
Natural gas use in Australia Natural gas use in Australia
Diesel Use in Australia
Burn coal feed stock as fuel
Other Oil Use in Australia
kg 0.0707
Tkm
Life Cycle Inventory Analysis
9620sub&super
structure
9605po rRC
9003Produce
CaSO4
9012Crush
Limestone
9013Mill
Limestone
9004Deliver
CaSO4
9011Quarry
Limestone
9002Mine
Gypsum
9000Quarry&Deliver
Si Sand
9001Mine&Deliver
BituminousCoal
9015Dry
Process
CementClinker
9016mixand
deliver25
MPabulk
cement
9017bag&
deliver25
MPacement
formortar
9607pour
groundbeam
9605pourRC
125mmslabs
9608pour
edge beams
9610pourpad
footings
9609pour
piers
9606pourRC
150mmslabs
9150
Basic
Oxygen
Steelmaking
9610Crushand
DeliverAggregate
9102Pellet&
DeliverOre
9116Crush
Stone&Ship
9152Crush&
ShipCoal
Timber
Milling
Mill end
Plywood
Making
9051Mine&Deliver
Steel MakingCoal
9101Mine&Deliver
IronOretoWhyalla
9011Quarry
Limestone
9018Quarry&Deliver
BuildingSand
4030Quarryaggregate
Timber
getting
Forestry
cultivation
9219Bolts&
Connectors
9218Mesh
Reinforcing
9217Mill Bar
Reinforcing
9221
Quikmix
AndDeliver
Concrete
Deliver
formwork
9223
Pump,Fill
andFloat
9222
Construct
formwork
9220
Deliver&
Place
Reinforcing
Steel
LCIA Method
LCI results
Theme (midpoint)
categories
Damage (endpoint)
categories
Human toxicity
Respiratory effects
Ionizing radiation
Ozone layer depletion
Photochemical oxidation
Aquatic ecotoxicity
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Ecosystem quality
Human health
Terrestrial ecotoxicity
Aquatic acidification
Aquatic eutrophication
Terrestrial acid/eutrophi.
Land occupation
Global warming
Non-renewable energy
Mineral extraction
Climate change
Resources
Midpoint approach: Converts the LCI results into a number of themes (i.e. global
warming, ozone depletion etc)
Endpoint approach: Focuses on damages caused by the inventory results and
organised into protection areas (i.e. human health, ecosystem, resource etc)
Damage Assessment
Human Health
Impact Category
Carcinogens
Respiratory organics
Inventory
Input ;
Oil
Coal
Ores
Eco-indicator 99
Final Single Value
Resources
Ecosystem Quality
Climate change
Fossil fuels
Classification/Characterization Normalization/Weighting Damage Assessment
Output ;
CO
2
SOx
COD
Solid Waste
Example application
Alternative beams
Concrete
Steel
Timber
Typical industrial application
Equal performance required
Environmental impact EI99 vs GHG
EI99
2

e
q
.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
E
c
o
-
P
o
in
t
Fossil fuels
Minerals
Land use
Acidification/Eutrophication
Ecotoxicity
Ozone layer
Radiation
Climate change
Respiratory inorganics
Respiratory organics
Carcinogens
C
O
2
PC beam Steel beam Timber
beam
Project
Carcinogens
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
PC beam Steel beam Timber beam
Project
k
g

C
O
2

E
q
.
CO2 Methane N2O Sequestration Other

An automated ecoefficiency design
tool for commercial buildings
providing quick, detailed assessment of
alternative designs of commercial buildings
LCADesign Innovation
3D CAD
OBJECTS
CAD
DRAWINGS
AUSTRALIAN
LOCAL
EMISSION
DATA
PROCESS
MODELS
KEY
ENVIRON-
MENTAL
INDICATORS
CML
EPS
ECO-
EFFICIENT
DESIGN
PROCESS
PERFORMANCE
ANALYSIS
AUTOMATED
TAKE-OFF
COMPONENT
MATERIAL
DRAWINGS
OF
BUILDING
MODELS
BOUSTEAD
SIMAPRO
EPS
ECO-
INDICATOR
ANALYSIS
COST
BENCHMARK
MATERIAL
QUANTITIES
COSTS
Rail Transport general freight
1
2
3
4
612
Air emission dust in processing 7500.0000 mg
Air emission CO in processing 370000.0000 mg
Air emission CO2 in processing 500000.0000 mg
Air emission SOx in processing 8000.0000 mg
Solid Waste Mineral Waste
818 0.2646 kg
8xx Coal use in Australia 1.6262 MJ
878 0.3900 MJ
884 0.1870 MJ
888 1.5000 MJ
3542 Road Transport A 18+ tonne 0.0019 v km
3544 0.4800
9014 1.4400 kg Mixture for Cement Making
Natural gas use in Australia Natural gas use in Australia
Diesel Use in Australia
Burn coal feed stock as fuel
Other Oil Use in Australia
9015 Dry Process Cement Clinker Formation
Cod
e
Input operation Quantity Unit
kg 0.0707
Inventory Impact Category
Input ;
Oi l
Coal
Ores
Output ;
CO2
SOx
COD
Soli d Waste
Carci nogens
Human Heal th
Damage Assessment
Respi rator y organi cs
Cl i mate change
Fossi l fuel s
Resources
Ecosystem Qual i ty Fi nal Si ngle Val ue
Inventory Impact Category
Input ;
Oi l
Coal
Ores
Output ;
CO2
SOx
COD
Soli d Waste
Carci nogens
Human Heal th
Damage Assessment
Respi rator y organi cs
Cl i mate change
Fossi l fuel s
Resources
Ecosystem Qual i ty Fi nal Si ngle Val ue
Integration
Direct from CAD
to Analysis
2
4
6
8
ADP
GWP
ODP
HTP EW
EE
IAQ
Standard
Alternative
By each indicator
100
80
60
40
20
%
E
a
c
h

p
r
o
c
e
s
s
Click to see more detailed break-down
For more detail by break-down
Key environmental indicators
0
HTP
FAETP
MAETP
TETP POCP
AP
EP
EW
0
ARD GWP ODP HT FAETP MAETP TETP POCP AP EP IAQ
Environmental Impact
More detailed break-down
Click
Click
Facades
ODP
aaaaaaa
aaaaaaa
Facades
Wall
Wall
Glass
Door
Mortar
Reinforcement
Masonry
Al. Frame
Materials analysis - house
Energy and emissions by material group component of a house
40%
50%
60%
70%
Embodied Energy (%)
CO2 (%)
Mass (%)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
G
la
s
s
A
lu
m
in
iu
m
O
th
e
r
M
e
ta
ls
T
im
b
e
r
S
tr
u
c
tu
r
a
l S
te
e
l
C
h
e
m
ic
a
ls
C
o
n
c
r
e
te
S
te
e
l
P
la
s
tic
P
la
s
te
r
M
a
s
o
n
ry
C
o
p
p
e
r
C
e
ra
m
ic
s
S
ta
in
le
s
s
S
te
e
l
A
p
p
lia
n
c
e
s
AusLCI - beginnings
Mission
The Australian Life Cycle Inventory (AusLCI) database
initiative will allow users from government and industry to
assess and compare products across a number of industries
ranging from building to packaging materials, and to choose
those likely to give the best performance relative to their
those likely to give the best performance relative to their
environmental impact
History
National Australian workshop in May 2006
- CSIRO (CSE) and ALCAS
Interim Steering Committee
- CSIRO, ALCAS, PACIA and VicEPA
AusLCI initiative officially launched
at the National LCA conference in November 2006
AUSLCI

Australian
Industry
Sectors Funding
$s ALCAS
Roundtables
Conferences
LCA
Users
Industry Sector
Activities
Construction
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Water
??????
AusLCI Interim
Steer ing Commit tee
Data guidelines
Sub-committee
Database
Sub-committee
Review
Sub-committee
LCIA
Sub-committee
AusLCI Secret ar iat
CSIROLegal entity
AusLCI Secretary
Project officer
Administration
Conferences
Communications
Technical support
Aus LCI Technical Sub-committees
Activities

Progress
Goal
Manage the Australian Life Cycle Inventory database, along
with the governance and administrative structures for on-
going developments and provision of reliable, high quality,
accredited LCI datasets for products and services across
many sectors
Committees
Co ttees
Interim steering committee
Data guidelines committee
Allocation sub-committee
Quality assurance sub-committee
Inventory review committee
Database and user interface development committee
Material specific working groups
LCI Timber database
The Deliverable 31 March 2008
Life Cycle Inventory database for forest and
wood products covering common building
products in the categories of:
Softwood plantation and hardwood native forests
Softwood framing and hardwood timbers
g
Veneer and plywood, and LVL
Particleboard and MDF
Glulam and engineered I-beams
Product LCIs categories to be included in
database
Logs softwood, hardwood, veneer, saw, pulp, diameters
Sawn timber softwood, hardwood, rough, planed, green,
dried, treated
Plywood interior, exterior, formply, flooring, structural,
thickness, number of veneers
LVL - thickness, number of veneers
Particleboard raw decorated thickness flooring furniture
Particleboard raw, decorated, thickness, flooring, furniture
MDF - raw, decorated, thickness, furniture
Glulam softwood, hardwood
Enginered I-beams ply/ OSB webs, softwood/ LVL flanges
LCI timber database
High quality, representative products, uniform,
credible, independent
Accessible by contributors
Providers receive own data/ information in a
format of public information for own relative
standing
Compatible with National LCI database
Importance of a Timber LCI database
Leadership role among manufactured products
Consumers looking for guidance on
environmental impact of choices
First credible component of AusLCI
Benchmarking environmental impacts of
products
products
Industry comparison of common materials
Avoidance of single issue indicators/ measures
A good basis for creating a comprehensive LCI
database
Why do we use LCA ?
There is a belief that LCA can help the society to
understand how human activities impact the
earth globally
LCA is a useful tool to assess progress towards
sustainable development
LCA can help in product improvement, product
design and communication to consumers and
other stakeholders
LCA attempts to prevent the shift of
environmental problems
Benefits
Environmental benefits of adopting the LCA
approach:
Minimising impacts over whole life cycle
Reducing greenhouse emissions
Identifying the most efficient and cost effective options
for increasing the environmental performance of a
product or service to create a 'greener' product that is
product or service, to create a greener product that is
more desirable to consumers
Assessing production processes to identify
opportunities for efficiency improvements, such as
avoiding waste treatment and using fewer resources,
while reducing financial costs
Assessing the environmental credentials and economic
costs of products and services that perform the same
function
Sustainable Ecosystems
Dr Selwyn Tucker
Phone: +613 9252 6184
Email: Selwyn.Tucker@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au/cse
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
REN - Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings
18
Zhengen Ren
Simulation and Modelling of
Sustainable Buildings
Zhengen Ren
Simulation and Modelling of Sustainable Buildings
Zhengen Ren
CSE Science Workshop, 4-6 December 2007, Melbourne
Simulation and modelling of sustainable buildings
Sustainable buildings
Research approaches for sustainable buildings
Building simulation
COwZ
Next steps for modelling developing
Sustainable buildings- energy efficient and healthy
buildings
Criteria for sustainable buildings: environment, economy
and society
Low environment impact:
Low energy use during the whole life cycle
Use renewable energy sources
Use non polluting, renewable or recycled materials
Favour biodiversity
Sound water and soil management
Good building integration into landscape
Public transportation
Waste management
Sustainable buildings: good indoor environment
quality with a reasonable use of energy
Good society quality:
IEQ (Indoor air quality, thermal and acoustical comfort
and lighting)
Safety against fire, weather, breaking in
Use (functionality, flexibility, privacy)
Aesthetic (space, interior and exterior fittings)
Economy (low global cost):
Long lasting construction and equipment
Architectural programme adapted to the market
Economically sound land and building costs
Global cost optimisation
Research approaches for sustainable buildings
Measurement and monitoring
Modelling
1) Allows one to model a building before it is built or
renovated
2) Allows different heating/cooling strategies to be
i ti t d d d investigated and compared
3) Leads to an energy-optimized building or, at least,
informs the design process
4) Is much less expensive and less time consuming than
measurement and experimentation (every building is
different)
Building simulation
CFD
Coarse-grid CFD
Resolution
Zonal models
Multizone/network
models
Building size
CFD computational fluid dynamics
High resolution of flows, temperatures and contaminant
levels
But
Results are relatively poor when
Flow is not fully turbulent (common occurrence) y ( )
Air is (temperature) stratified
Near air inlet ducts or complex shapes or flow
patterns
Only practical for single rooms (or part of building)
Multizone/network models
Apply to whole buildings (only practical model
available)
Good for interaction with outdoor conditions (wind,
pressures, etc)
But
No resolution inside rooms
Single representative parameters for whole room
Prediction of emission rates, exposure levels and
exchange with rest of building depends critically
on local in-room conditions.
Models in current use
CFD models
Fluent, Phoenics, FlowStar, etc.)
May be applied to single rooms or part of building
Multizone/network models for IAQ Multizone/network models for IAQ
COMIS, CONTAM
Applied to whole buildings
Thermal simulation programs
- EnergyPlus, AccuRate,Energy-10, BLSAT, DOE-2, etc.
Bridging the gap between CFD and multizone
Multizone + CFD (Glasgow: Esp-R, Switzerland)
Multizone + coarse-grid CFD (La Rochelle with
USEPA)
Multizone + zonal (QUESTOR COwZ model)
Dynamic thermal models
Source emission models
Exposure models
Models of occupants
What is COwZ ?
Calculation of airflows, Temperatures, and contaminant
emission and transport between and within rooms
through whole buildings
Simplified subzonal model of buildings
Well mixed (sub-)zones (uniform T and Concentration)
Airflowpaths between (sub )zones Airflow paths between (sub-)zones
Simultaneous mass balance and thermal energy in all
zones
Contaminant emission and dispersion calculated
based on local airflows, sources and sinks
Exposure based on occupant activity and patterns
Subdivision of a room
Boundary layer
J et flow
Thermal
Supply air jet
flow adjacent to
cold wall
Thermal
plume flow
Exhaust flow
i
Heater
Applications of COwZ
Ventilation
Air infiltration and Ventilation rates
Comparison of ventilation strategies
Analyze and design ventilation systems
Contaminant Transport
IAQ design
Building material selection
Contaminant source isolation
Exposure analysis
Case study Air flow at z=0
12.5 28.2 47.6
67.5
57.1
10.9 27.4 48.6 82.3 124.3
9.9 32.7 60.9 113.9 242.3
86
0.8 13.7 27.2
5.9 7.5 97.5
15.5
115.8
29.2
486
34.8 42.1 26.5 448
39.9 51.3 63.2 60.3 128.4 572.3
49.8 74.2 91.5 113.2
50.6 86.9 105
44.7 100.3
29.2
814.6
486 515.2 631
728.6 814.6
29 170.5
Case1
486
16.5
19.2 22.6 6.6 390.9 16.5
35.7 58.3
64.9 95.1 160
Velocity at (x, z) =(3, 0)
2
3
h
t

(
m
)
0
1
-0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
Velocity (m/s)
H
e
i
g
h
Nielsen
COwZ
Concentration at height 0.25H
2.2
2.6
3
C
R
measured
analysis
COwZ
1
1.4
1.8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
x/H
C
/
Concentration in the vertical symmetry plane (z =0 )
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
1
2
3
y

(
m
)
Case 1
x(m) Cp* (3, 1.5, 0) =1.4 Cp* (6, 1.5, 0) =1.0
Remaining weaknesses in current models
Zonal models (and k- CFD models) are poor in
stratified conditions
Zonal models cannot cope with strongly interacting
flow drivers
Next steps for modelling development
Large eddy simulation CFD
Promising alternative to standard k- CFD
Better for low turbulence conditions
Transient rather than steady-state solution
Improved thermal modelling
Currently energy models at room-average value
A more sophisticated approach is needed for
whole-building energy simulations
BAYNES - Complex Dyanmics of Urban Systems Project
19
TimBaynes
Complex Dynamics of Urban
Systems Project
Tim Baynes
Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems Project
Tim Baynes
Project Leader
5
th
December 2007
Concept
?
CSIRO. Simulation and Modelling of Sustainability Transitions &Applications in Policy, Planning and Management December 2007
Purpose
Provide a coordinating function for urban research, engineering
knowledge and expertise in complex systems science
Gain an understanding of the collective dynamics between urban
g y
systems and
Deepen the foundation of indicators regarding urban resilienceor
vulnerabilitybeyond static measures like ecological footprints.
Structure
Funded for two years through the Complex Systems Science Theme
Series of workshops in the first year.
Continuingweb-based interaction: wiki page where participants can
Continuing web based interaction: wiki page where participants can
contribute to on-going discussions, add links to their research and
share information.
4 X 1 intensive week for collaboration for ~6 people
We are not alone
Michael Batty at University College London
J . Portugali Self-organisation and the City.
Swiss workshopin 2005
Swiss workshop in 2005
TU Delft has hosted workshops on Complexity in Industrial
Ecology
The 1st Workshop
Identify major urban issues that can be usefully addressed with
complex systems science
What are some examples of current urban research and tools
what are the existing frameworks for understanding the issues?
Example of existing urban models
Household
Housing and land-use
zoning policy
Housing
targets
(types and
locations) Residential
location
Transport
energy
model
Dwelling
energy
un-located located
Household
generator
Population and
demographic
projections
Population
structure
(descriptive and
anticipated)
locations) Residential
location
model
Dwelling
energy
model
Water use
model
un-located
households
located
households
Rickwood, 2007
Where couples with children want to live
Rickwood, 2007
Example of feedback in irrigation system
K. Proust PhD, ANU, 2004
The 1st Workshop
What complex systems methods or approaches exist and how they
might they be used, or combined with urban research, to produce
insight.
SwanRiverTrust
DepartmentofEnvironment
Departmentof
Agriculture
Departmentof
Health
Local Government
WALGA
DepartmentofPlanning
andInfrastructure
landholders
NGOs
tertiaryeducation
institutes
WAPlanningCommission
property
management
natural area
management
industrygroups
chemical
contaminants
environmental water
provisions
waterwayssalinity
management
environmental
protectionprovisions
landdevelopment
advice
landdevelopmentcapability
andsuitability
Sewerage
in-fill
waterefficiencyand
recycling
water
conservation
groundwater
contaminants
contaminatedsites/
acid-sulphatesoils
drainagemanagement
drainagereviewandretro-fit
watersensitiveurbandesign
precinctpolicyplans
litterstrategy
recreationgrassedareadrainageplans
WaterCorporation
CALM
Departmentof
Fisheries
WesternPower MainRoads
SwanCatchmentCouncil
AvonCatchmentCouncil
catchmentgroups/NRM
groups
NGOs
CSIRO
National Trust
KeepAustralia
Beautiful Council
Yachtclubsand
Marinas
catchment
management
riparianzonefloraandfaunaresearchprograms
promoteriparianzonefloraandfaunamanagemnetneeds
clearingcontrolsforriparianvegetation
biodiversityguidelines*
vegetationsurveys- bushforeversites
biodiversityinventoriesandmanagementplans
assessmentofformal biodiversitypartnershiparrangements
Riverforeshoreconditionassessment
exoticspeciescontrol strategies
FremantlePort
incentiveschemestomanageriparian
vegetation
investmentstrategiesforincentiveschemes
increasedcorridoreplantingwithlocal species
riveruse/recreationstrategy
rivermicrobiological statusandreductionplans
waterlicenceconditions
waterlicencefeesandmanagement
waterresourceallocationplans
EMSforYachtclubsandMarinas
manageboatwash, wake, noise&speed
sustainablefishingandcompliance
educationonsustainablefishingpractices
fishstock/habitatenhancement
investigatealgal bloomsandfishecology
Interactions Between Key Players
Premiers Department;
Swan Catchment
Council;
Conservation Council;
WALGA;
CSIRO;
Dept Environment;
Swan River Trust;
Local Government;
DPI
Landcorp;
Catchment groups;
Dept. Health;
Fisheries;
Watercorp
;
EPA;
CALM;
Developers;
DeptAgriculture;
Indigenous Affairs;
TourismWA
The 1st Workshop
What complex systems methods or approaches exist and how they
might they be used, or combined with urban research, to produce
insight.
Initiate collaborations between CSS and urban systems research
Next
David Batten and Brian Roberts have initiated an industrial
ecology network in Australia to be hosted by QLD EPA
Journal of Industrial Ecology has a special issue coming out
editors want to feature this project.
Workshop in February/March
Interactive Web Page
Complex Systems Science Theme
TimBaynes
Project Leader
Complex Dynamics of Urban Systems
Phone: +61 2 9490 8824
Email: Tim.Baynes@csiro.au
Web:
www.complexsystems.net.au/wiki/Complex_Dynamics_of_Urban_Systems
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Thank you
BATTEN - Simulating the Behaviour of Adaptive Agents
20
David Batten
Simulating the Behaviour of
Adaptive Agents
David Batten
Simulating the Behaviour
of Adaptive Agents
David F Batten
Coordinator
CSIRO Agent-Based Modelling Working Group
(CABM)
Boundedly Rational Humans
In the social and economic sciences, most modellers
rely heavily on certain simplifying assumptions:
e.g. homogeneity of actors
perfect, logical, deductive rationality
static equilibria. q
Most of game theory and general equilibrium theory
are still based on these assumptions.
Many social scientists admit that these assumptions
are unrealistic. Herbert Simons notion of satisficing
made it clear that our rationality is bounded in more
complicated situations.
Complicated Situations
In highly-complicated, interactive situations, human
agents cannot rely on other human agents to behave
or respond in a perfectly rational manner.
Instead they must guess each others behaviour. y g
This lands us in a world of subjective beliefs, and
subjective beliefs about subjective beliefs.
Objective, well-defined, shared assumptions cease
to exist. Thus rational, deductive reasoning cannot
apply because the problem has become ill-defined.
A Bottomless Ocean
TIC-TAC-TOE
CHECKERS
(DRAFTS)
SIMPLE
CHESS or GO COMPLICATED
Human Reasoning
How do human beings actually reason in situations
that are complicated or ill-defined?
Modern psychology tells us that we are moderately
good at deductive logic, thus we make only moderate
useof it Ontheother hand we are superb at seeing use of it. On the other hand, we are superb at seeing,
recognizing or matching patterns.
In complicated situations, we look for patterns, then
simplify the problem using these patterns to construct
temporary hypotheses or mental models to work with.
We carry out localized deductions based on these
mental models, and then we act on them.
Adaptive Behaviour
Feedback from the systems performance serves to
strengthen or weaken our beliefs in our current mental
models, causing us to discard or replace them (e.g. if
they do not lead to satisfactory outcomes).
As Tom Sargent suggests, if we lack full definition of g gg ,
any problem, then we devise simple mental models to
paper over the gaps in our understanding.
Such behaviour is not deductive, but inductive and
adaptive (see Holland et al, 1986 or Arthur, 1994).
We can see adaptive behaviour at work in Chess.
Chess Playing
Pattern
Formation
Observe opponents
move and search for
possible patterns
Pattern
Recognition
Discern chunks
or patches of
familiar moves
Strategy
Selection
Hypothesis
Selection
Local
Deduction
Deduce your mental
model to counter
opponents strategy
Select your mental
model to explain
opponents strategy
Selection
Select your
next move
Modelling Adaptive Behaviour
The management of resource-based, urban systems
(like water, energy and transport) can be thought of
as higher dimensional (i.e. n-agent) chess games.
When agents must adapt to moves of other agents, g p g
some learn faster than others, adjusting their strategies
so they benefit more from the collective outcomes.
This adaptive learning behaviour is reminiscent of
survival of the fittest in evolutionary biology.
Agent-based modelling(ABM) attempts to cope with
such complicated, out-of-equilibrium systems.
ABMis actuallySimulation
The study of a large number of adaptive agents,
with intricate feedback loops between macrostructure
and microbehaviour, rules out an equations-based
model. We must resort to computer simulation.
The collective properties of these simulated worlds
that a multi-agent approach can help to provide new
insights into are those that arise in the dynamics
produced by the interactive responses of the agents
making up the system. In a truly complex system,
some of the collective outcomes will be surprising!
CSIROs Agent-Based Modelling
Working Group (CABM)
CSIRO established a virtual Centre for Complex
Systems Science in 2002.
Within this network, researchers in the CABM ,
Working Group undertake agent-based modelling
research projects across a broad range of issues
fromderegulating electricity markets to fish and
fishing vessel behaviour,
Fromarid rangelands to saline river catchments.
The CABM Working Group nurtures these projects by
organizing interaction tasks e.g. workshops, working
group meetings and financial support to sponsor CABM
members attendance at international conferences.
International experts fromAsia, Europe and North
America are invited to attend local events.
David Batten is Coordinator of the CABM Working
Group and also led the NEMSIMwork until late 2005.
Scott Heckbert is Communications Manager and may
take over as CABM Coordinator in 2008-09.
Several CABMscientists collaborate closely with French
scientists belonging to the HEMA (Human Ecosystems
Modelling with Agents) network see Pascal Perez.
ScientistsfromCSIROandANU collaboratedirectl ith Scientists fromCSIRO and ANU collaborate directly with
others at CIRAD, INRA and CEMAGREF in Montpellier.
HEMA projects make use of the CORMAS (Common-
pool Resource management using Multi-Agent Systems)
platformdeveloped at CIRAD in Montpellier.
CABMestablished a technical partnership with Argonne
Nat Lab to make use of DIAS, FACET and J eoViewer.
CABM Working Group:
Recent Activities
Mar 2005 Workshop (Bourg-Saint Maurice): Multi-agent
Modelling for Environmental Management [Nils Ferrand]
Dec 2005 MODSIM Sessions (Melbourne): Human Ecosystems
Modelling and Management with Agents
Dec 2005 Symposium(Melbourne): The Evolution of Diversity
May 2006 IT Workshop (Katoomba) Selection, Self-Organization
d Di i and Diversity
Aug 2006 Workshop (Magnetic Island): Empirical Agent-based
Modelling [Alex Smajgl]
Aug 2006 Book published (ANU ePress): Complex Science for a
Complex World: Modelling Human Ecosystems with Agents [eds:
Pascal Perez and David Batten 14 chapters]
J un 2007 Workshop (Perth): Simulating Human-Agricultural
Landscape Interactions with Multi-Agent System Models [Senthold
Asseng]
Nov 2007 CS Research Summer School (Bathurst): Agent-based
Modelling in Socio-Economic Systems [Terry Bossomaier]
Online version: Free
Print-on-demand copy: $49.95 (GST inclusive)
Thank You
David F Batten
Coordinator
CSIRO Agent-Based Modelling Working Group
(CABM)
MOGLIA - Vulnerability of Urban Water Services in Pacific Island Countries
21
Magnus Moglia
Vulnerability of Urban Water
Services in Pacific Island
Countries
Magnus Moglia
Vulnerability of urban water services in
Pacific Island Countries
Magnus Moglia, CSIRO Land and Water, and
Australian National University
SMURT Workshop, 5
th
-6
th
December 2007
Background, context and approach
Very general focus: What is the vulnerability of water
supplies in PICs, and how can it be addressed?
Approach: Iterating between field and model in an on-
going co-learning process; and also continuously
updating stakeholder maps
CSIRO
Some troubling facts in PICs (re urban
water)
Rely extensively on aid, and migrant workers for income;
unemployment is high and subsistence living is still of critical
importance in most towns or cities in PICs
Faced with many challenges such as remoteness, isolation, lack of
opportunities for economy of scale and vulnerability to global
developments (SIDS)
Urbanization in the PICs was typically initiated by colonial
CSIRO
yp y y
administrators, and there is a dichotomy between administrations built
on a colonial legacy, and traditional cultural institutions
Customary land issues often add complexity to water management
Staffing capacities and skill deficiencies is a serious problem
There is typically inadequate coordination and integration between
agencies and local government (occasionally fully decentralized and
village based)
Family kinship ties and personal favouritism limits the capacity for
objective decision making and inhibits the capacity for change
Often culturally averse to knowledge sharing
Field Study: Tarawa, Kiribati
CSIRO
Brief history of water in Tarawa
Population increase
Traditional groundwater
use
Infiltration galleries and
reserves (colonial)
Conflicts on the
reserves
Can recycling
Rain tank regulation
CSIRO
Reaching the limit
SAPHE project
Reserves extensions
Demand
management
Desalination
Slow-flow tanks
experiment
- Very high childhood mortality
- Water scarcity
-Disgruntled land owners
-Inability to pay for services
- Groundwater sources under threat
- Climate change
g
Stalemate
Breakdown
But why? The curse of the techno-centric
approach!!
Lacks adaptive mechanisms
Relies on nave assumptions about socio-
cultural environment
Does not consider multiple perspectives
Poor at developing community ownership
Project
conception
Expert
consultation
CSIRO
Is often undermined through political and
social processes
But works better in Western societies
where social complexity can
sometimes be designed away through
centralized institutions and large
scale technological solutions.
Design
Political process
Distributing
responsibilities
Technical
implementation
Community
engagement
Assertions and premises based on field study
1. Water service delivery in PICs is a highly
complex issue within a highly resource
constrained environment. This demands
dialogue, coordination and integration!
2. Constructive change is often hindered by
CSIRO
institutional lock in situations
3. Outsiders have limited and variable ability
to understand the social and technical
environments in which change has to be
implemented
We need new processes for conceiving,
designing and delivering water projects,
and there are some interesting approaches
coming out of the participatory modelling
(PM) area
The rationale of participatory modelling
Developing a common language and a common ground for
dialogue
Utilising mixed knowledge types including local knowledge
and narratives
To support co-learning and identification of knowledge gaps
To support consensus building in complex and contextual
situations because in a social context everyone must
agree on the assumptions in order to agree on decisions,
and to agree on assessment.
To understand others viewpoints and constraints and to co-
construct strategies
CSIRO
Companion modelling in Tarawa round 1
Focus on water reserves extensions
Parallel with SAPHE project
AtollScape and AtollGame
CSIRO
Companion modelling outcomes
Identification of both the extremist views, as well as a middle
path
Utility maximisers: financial compensation was highlighted as a
key difficulty and since the game, the financial compensation has
been significantly raised but problems remain
Water utility: we do not work with the community
CSIRO
Developed a viable road map for the government
SAPHE project hijacking the process by organizing
meetings with local community to present them with the
facts of implementation; but locals referred to road map
Parliamentary decision about delaying reserves extensions
Companion modelling in Tarawa round 2
Urban focus
Despite (or perhaps because
of) round 1;
the local water utility is now
interested in community
engagement and
decentralized approaches
Round 1: AtollScape
and AtollGame
Widening of scope to
include Urban issues
Mapping of stakeholders
and information sources
DIALECTIC
LEARNING
PROCESS
CSIRO
System representations
1. Flow charts
2. Agent Based Model: Tarawa
Waterscape
3. Bayesian networks (early
days)
Contextual water
management framework +
Shared system
representation (Agent
based model)
Development or
adjustment of system/
knowledge
representations
Meetings with
stakeholders: interviews
and confront with system
representations
Development of system
representations
Agent based model: Tarawa WaterScape
CSIRO
Operational
funds
H h ld
Another perspective from
Bayesian networks: Desalination
Ability to pay Trust
Skills
Donor
/ government
funds
CSIRO
Maintenance
Spare parts
available
Desalination
Household
acceptance
Availability
of fuel
available
Staff
motivation
Outcomes so far: second round
Participants of water board, and National Water and
Sanitation Committee very positive about
Shared representation of the system creating opportunities for
cross-departmental dialogue
Understanding impacts of behavioural patterns that otherwise
are poorly understood (water usage, and landowner behaviour)
Being able to devise new cooperative strategies for addressing
CSIRO
g p g g
complex problems
Being able to bridge gap between traditional and formal
institutional systems
Difficulties hindering further progress
Extremely difficult staffing and skills situation
Limited incentives for collaboration and participation in
meetings (outside the scope of individual projects)
Cultural preference against sharing information!! But model and
outsiders may help.
Political processes often take precedence
Back to some basic questions
How do you put the incentives and skills in
place for local stakeholders to integrate,
coordinate and cooperate?
What role should politics play and how do
i i i th d t ti ff t f
CSIRO
you minimize the destructive effects of
corruption?
DUNSTALL - Modelling the Uptake and Impact of Distributed Energy
22
Simon Dunstall
Modelling the uptake and impact
of distributed energy
Simon Dunstall
Modelling the uptake and
impact of distributed energy
Simon Dunstall
(project leader IG Sim and stream leader CMIS ASN)
SMURT, December 2007
www.cmis.csiro.au
Supply-demand gap
A growing portion of the energy supply-demand gap will
be filled in the future by low emissions, efficient generation
located close to loads
www.cmis.csiro.au
www.cmis.csiro.au
The Intelligent Grid Project: context
Mass deployed Distributed Energy (DE)
Relatively small amounts of electrical energy but a very large number
of individual devices.
Generation: gas micro-turbines, PV, wind, etc
Co-generation: DG +heating, cooling
Demand response: HVAC systems, industrial machinery, pool pumps, etc p y , y, p p p ,
In Australia, DE is not (currently) economically competitive with
conventional energy options
The (optimised) management of DE is a critical part of its performance
and economics
The IG project addresses the economic, environmental and social
changes that must occur to accelerate the deployment of DE to meet
the CO2 emission reduction targets in the required timeframe.
www.cmis.csiro.au
High-level challenge
Model uptake and impact
=project a complex future with some quantitative accuracy
=address likely/plausible futures, not just desired futures!
influence uptake and impact
www.cmis.csiro.au
Timescales
30 minutes is a
natural timestep for
studying energy
market dynamics
and supply-demand
balance balance
10-50 years is the
natural timeframe
for filling the supply-
demand gap
www.cmis.csiro.au
IG sub-projects
Social
Observational data and conceptual modelling shedding light on opinions,
uptake potential and levers for bringing about change
Economics
LP-based models of supply-demand gap filling by all relevant technology
classes, to 2050.
Environmental
LCA, resource accounting using stocks-and-flows framework, MCA.
Simulation
Dynamics of the physical and market systems
Simulation and optimisation models of devices and portfolios
Market simulation instances at future intervals: revenue flows, market
behaviour, testing assumptions of higher-level models
www.cmis.csiro.au
Computational backbones
Energy Sector Model
S
LCA
Device and
Market Simulators
ASFF
Common data on
geography, demand,
end-uses, resources,
etc
portfolio
behaviour
models
www.cmis.csiro.au
Challenges
Sustainability
Determine the attractiveness of DE options with respect to sustainability
Explore the economic survival of the more environmentally-sustainable
energy options
Not enough data
Guesswork, arbitrary choices, hacks,
Hampers comparabilitybetween studies Hampers comparability between studies
Constructing instances of the future
Complexity
Plausibility
Arbitrary scenarios versus coverage of experiment space
Adequately characterising behaviours at multiple scales
People (e.g. DE uptake, domestic demand under various stimuli)
Equipment under rational/optimised management
Markets and economic/social systems in general
www.cmis.csiro.au www.cmis.csiro.au
ESM-to-market-sim
Macro-level scenario/
parameter data
ESM
Revised macro-level data
(e.g. capacity factors)
ESM output
[(tech,year,capacity,region)]
Optimisation Module
Market Sim Figure 1National electricitygeneration under EMS scenario
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
TWh
DG
Solar thermal
Wind
Biomass
Gas peak
Gas combinedcycle
Black coal CCS
Black coal IGCC
Browncoal CCS
Black coal pf
Browncoal IGCC
Browncoal pf
Hydro
NEM config generator
Define entities at NEM nodes
DE characterisation
Technology, business model, etc
( g p y )
DE representation
For embedding in an existing model
For predicting DSR / local-load / NEM behaviour
Optimally map [(t,y,c,r)] to
DE representations
www.cmis.csiro.au
Sub-models in IG-Sim
e.g. gas micro-turbines supplying hot
water, electrical energy and space
heating to apartment complexes
e.g. changes in domestic demand
profiles due to installation of DE devices
h f t dPV d i such as roof-mounted PV and micro co-
gen systems.
www.cmis.csiro.au
CHP-GT Schematic
Capstone C65 micro-turbines in multiple 25-apartment
complexes (6.5 MW aggregate generation capacity)
www.cmis.csiro.au
Experimenting with micro-turbine CHP
COOK - Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities
23
Freeman Cook
Nested Transport Systems for
Viable Cities
Freeman Cook
Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities
Freeman Cook
December 2007
Transport Systems in Cities
Increasing price of oil and other energy sources has implications for
transport
within cities
of goods to and from cities
delivery of services within cities
The problem transportation into the future with oil shortages could be a
CSIRO. Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities
p p g
problem
Single cars transporting often 1 passenger is an inefficient use of
energy
Need to consider transport systems within cities and could they be
improved
China Fuel Crisis Remains
Lowgovernment-controlled prices have led to a fuel-supply crisis inmany parts of China. Rationing, long queues, and bad
tempers have become commonplace at service stations.
On November 19th in Anhui province in central China, a lorry driver
reportedly stabbed another driver to death in a fight to get to the head of
a queue for diesel.
Traffic Congestion
Lead to delays and problems for
commuters
Air pollution and health problems
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Urban
Water and Other Sectors
19
24
29
34
39
44
a
le
n
t
s

p
e
r

p
e
r
s
o
n

(
2
0
0
4
-
2
0
0
5
)
0.15 0.13 0.17 0.11
-1
4
9
14
N
e
w

S
o
u
t
h
W
a
le
s
W
a
t
e
r

S
e
c
t
o
r
S
y
d
n
e
y
V
ic
t
o
r
ia

W
a
t
e
r

S
e
c
t
o
r
M
e
lb
o
u
r
n
e
Q
u
e
e
n
s
la
n
d
W
a
t
e
r

S
e
c
t
o
r
S
E
Q
W
e
s
t
e
r
n
A
u
s
t
r
a
lia
W
a
t
e
r

S
e
c
t
o
r
P
e
r
t
h
T
o
n
n
e
s

o
f

C
O
2

E
q
u
iv
a
Water Services
Waste
Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
Agriculture
Transport
Energy Sector (minus Transport)
Questions
Can a better system be designed that is:
Flexible
Scalable can be implemented in a staged manner
Cost effective
Social acceptable
p
Time effective
Can we model such systems using Agent Based-Models to get
some insights?
Nested Transport System
Major Interchange
Minor interchange
Local interchange
Major link
Minor link
Local link
Major Interchange/link
Based on major existing transport hubs
Rail stations/ bus exchanges
interchange system for minor and local level inputs into the major exchange
Major link is a mass transit system for large volumes of people
Move passengers quickly between major links
Service frequency at set intervals
Vehicle capacity changes load requirement, not frequency
Employment centres and services near such interchanges
Reduce further transport of some of the inbound passengers
Minor Interchanges/Links
Vehicles of appropriate size for passenger numbers
Frequent link between minor and major interchanges
Shopping centres, minor rail stations, minor bus exchanges
Parking facilities for cars, bikes etc
Secure temporary storage of bikes, goods etc. with scanning for
bombs
Local Interchange/Links
Local routes
Small local buses
Bikes
Pedestrians
Cars
Frequency and size will be important for adoption
High frequency of small vehicles
Research Questions
1. Can we model this nested system?
2. Can we get some useful metrics be developed?
3. Is the system scalable?
1 Can it be Model
Network theory would seem to be an ideal method along with
agent-based modelling to model and analyse such a system
2 Metrics
Metrics such as ratio of travel distance to straight line distance
and travel times could be determined with network modelling
ABM could be used to consider social and economic issues
Policy and economic drivers for implementation
3 Scalable
Implementing such systems in a scalable manner should be
possible and should be testable with ABM and network theory
Possible Outcomes
Reduce congestion
Due to having only local concentration of traffic at local points in
the system
Each step up in the system is scaled to cope with the volumes of
traffic
Reduce environmental and energy costs
More viable cities
More viable cities
More liveable cities
Reduce air pollution
Possible Problems
Politically unpalatable
Difficulties with scaling
Cost of implementation
White anting
Conclusion
New transport systems will be required in the future for cities to
remain viable
Nested systems may be one way of implement a scaled
change in transport systems
Worth a try?
At least worth modellingsucha system!!!
At least worth modelling such a system!!!
CSIRO. Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities CSIRO. Nested Transport Systems for Viable Cities
One column layout
Level 1, Arial Regular 20pt
These font sizes are recommended
Youcan increase font sizes providing the hierarchyof
You can increase font sizes providing the hierarchy of
information is maintained (ie. slide heading is largest, followed
by Level 1, then Level 2 and so on)
Font size must be consistent across all slides
Do not use font sizes smaller than displayed here. If you do not
have enough room to fit your text, spread your content over
multiple slides
Two column layout with pullout box
For two column layouts
PowerPoint automatically
reduces the font size
Level 1
Level 2
Level 3
Level 4
Level 5
[Pullout box: Arial Regular 16pt, fill R0 G153
B204, 80% transparency]
Pullout boxes can extend to slide edge or
reduces the font size
You can increase the font size as
stated on slide 3
Pullout boxes can extend to slide edge or
remain inline with column text
Pullout boxes can also be used 0%
transparency with white text when needed
[Pullout box: Arial Regular 16pt, fill
R153 G153 B153, 70% transparency]
Text.
[Pullout box: Arial Regular 16pt, fill
R190 G214 B0, 70% transparency]
Text.
Approved colour palette for PowerPoint
Primary colours:
To be used first and foremost in your presentations
CSIRO Blue
R0 G153 B204
CSIRO Green
R190 G214 B0
CSIRO Grey
R153 G153 B153
Black
R0 G0 B0
Secondary colours:
Useful for complex diagrams and charts
Blue
R89 G152 B200
Red
R203 G80 B86
Green
R116 G161 B142
Yellow
R235 G171 B0
Use of colour palette for diagrams - example
0.8
P
E
T
Gas Molecules
Clay
Platelet
Gas Molecules
P
E
T
Acceptability of breads
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Negative
(score 1-3)
Neutral
(score 4-6)
Positive
(score 7-9)
R
e
l
a
t
i
v
e
f
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
Refined wheat Wholemeal wheat BarleyMax
Use of colour palette for diagrams - example
Probiotics/
Storage
Immuno
Food
Platform
Technology
successful
successful
Microencapsulation
Incorporation of
Resistant Starch
When using graphics they must
remain inside the text margins
Graphics are not permitted to
overlap the background graphics
(ie. diagonal lines, grey and blue
strips at the top, footer, CSIRO
logo at the bottom)
By staying within the margins
your presentation will remain
clean and tidy, and be easier for
your audience to take in
Pharmaceutical
applications
Veterinary
applications
Prebiotics Nutrient delivery
in vitro
successful
Applications
successful
This is an example of a
Section Divider slide
Section Divider slide
Arial Regular, 44pt
Troubleshooting
The background image disappears when I print
Make sure your presentation has not turned off the background
From the Tools menu select Options then click on the Print tab
Under printing options ensure Background printing is checked
If the background still disappears select all slides, go to the Format
menu Background, uncheck Omit background images from
master andApplyto all
master, and Apply to all
The file size of my presentation is very large
If your presentation has multiple images the file size will be large.
You can compress your images to help the final size
Compress images by using the Picture toolbar
Either change the resolution of your images (which can affect the
quality of your image so make sure to re-look at your images if you
select this option) or compress pictures which works with colour
without affecting the quality of your image
Deleting cropped areas of images will also reduce the file size
Division/Unit Name
Presenters name
Presenters title
Phone: XX XXXX XXXX
Email: name.name@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au/group
Division/Unit Name
Presenters name
Presenters title
Phone: XX XXXX XXXX
Email: name.name@csiro.au
Web: www.csiro.au/group
Contact Us
Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176
Thank you

ISBN: 978 0 643 09603 5

SMURT CSE WorkshopProceedings Standard

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

SMURT CSE WorkshopProceedings Standard

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

ISBN: 978 0 643 09603 5

Simulation and Modelling of Urban and

APPENDIX - WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS

APPENDIX - WORKSHOP PRESENTATIONS

Sum of the land use to produce g at location j equals

Northeastern Illinois Planning Commission (CHICAGO)

S outheast Mi chi gan 1978 S outheast Mi chi gan 1978

Generate the number

Copyright Agriculture Victoria Services Pty Ltd(AVS), 2007.

Copyright Agriculture Victoria Services PtyLtd(AVS), 2007.

Copyright Agriculture Victoria Services PtyLtd(AVS), 2007.

Copyright AgricultureVictoria Services PtyLtd (AVS), 2007.

Systems Design Network

CSIRO SMURT, Melbourne, 5 December 2007

Вам также может понравиться