SHANDONG UNIVERSITY

School of Political Science and Public Administation

!ASTERS IN INTERNATIONA" RE"ATIONS
TER! PAPER
Realism as both Hurdle and Panacea in addressing Climate Change
Pesented #$
#i%ht !han%o &!'()*(+),
Pesented To
Pofesso -hu Guichan%
&Intenational Relations Theo$,
!a$ '().
Realism as both Hurdle and Panacea in addressing Climate Change
1
Climate and Climate Change: The issues
Climate is generally defined as a measure of the average pattern of variation
in temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, precipitation, atmospheric particle
count and other meteorological variables in a given region over long periods of time. It is
different from weather, which is the measure of these factors over a short period of time.
1

Climate Change is thus simply put, the change in the average weather but the UNFCCC
defines it as a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human
activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.

!
Closely lin"ed to climate change is global warming which is the alleged rise in global
temperatures due to the increase of gases in the atmosphere which create a blan"et that
lets in solar energy and prevent it from leaving #ust li"e a greenhouse.
$ising levels of carbon dio%ide and other heat&trapping gases in the atmosphere have
warmed the 'arth and are causing wide&ranging impacts, including rising sea levels(
melting snow and ice( more e%treme heat events, fires and drought( and more e%treme
storms, rainfall and floods
)
.
*ashington +tate ,epartment of 'cology says scientists pro#ect that these trends will
continue and in some cases accelerate, posing significant ris"s to human health, our
forests, agriculture, freshwater supplies, coastlines, and other natural resources that are
vital to - economy, environment, and our .uality of life.!
1 Washington State Department of Ecology (2012) What is Climate Change available at:
http://!ecy!a!gov/climatechange/hatis!htm
2 https://"nfccc!int/essential#bac$gro"n%/convention/bac$gro"n%/items/2&'(!php
' Washington State Department of Ecology (2012) What is Climate Change available at:
http://!ecy!a!gov/climatechange/hatis!htm
2
/ver the past 10 decade, the world has emitted more C/ than it did from the entire
period since the start of the Industrial $evolution up to about 1120. In 011 alone, the
world emitted more than it did in the )0 years between 1340 and 1330
5
.
Fig 16 C/

7rends near 8awaii, source6 National Oceanic & Atmospheric
Administration
It is figures li"e these that have catapulted climate change into the international agenda
and subse.uently International $elations.
7he reversal of climate change ta"es the form of reducing emissions of greenhouse gases
and to reduce greenhouses means curbing industrial pollution 9output: and using cleaner
) Eric *oltha"s an% Chris +ir$ (201)) , -ilthy *istory available at:
http://!slate!com/articles/technology/f"t"re#tense/201)/0&/carbon#%io.i%e#emissions#by#co"ntry#ov
er#time#the#orst#global#arming#poll"ters!html
'
technology among other measures all of which are undesirable by the industriali;ed states
since they mean reduced output< money.
7he issue is also compounded by the fact that most of the emission is by the global north,
which are rich and industriali;ed countries while the effects of climate change are being
felt or will be felt more by the global south.
7his is what =oshua >oldstein would term a collective goods problem. 7he collective
goods problem, also "nown as collective actions,! free riding,! burden sharing,!
prisoners? dilemma,! mi%ed interest game! or tragedy of the commons! is the problem
of how to provide something that benefits all members of a group regardless of what each
member contributes to it. 7he collective goods problem occurs in all groups and
societies, but is particularly acute, as a world government to enforce on individual
nations, the necessary measures to provide for the common good 9>oldstein 01:.
+everal efforts have been employed by states to curb climate change @ efforts such as the
Ayoto Brotocol, but as the +late reported, emissions are actually increasing and if climate
change is real, it is coming to get the earth.
7his paper would li"e to argue that in the current international regime, in which realism
dominates, solving climate change is not easy if not impossible unless realism itself is
e%panded to include climate change as a security issue.
False Hope: Ozone a!er "ains
7he /;one Cayer is a layer of o;one gas in the atmosphere which traps harmful
ultraviolet rays that can cause cancers among other harmful effects. *hen the world
wo"e up to the reali;ation that the /;one Cayer was being depleted by chiefly
chlorofluorocarbons 9CFCs: which were used in the refrigeration technology and aerosol
sprays, it sprung into action.
7he 1132 Dontreal Brotocol states agreed to stop producing CFCs by 000 but with
more evidence of o;one layer depletion states went into urgent action and by 1114 ma#or
)
industrial nations phased out CFCs and as at now the /;one Cayer is said to be healing
and will completely heal in the ne%t five decades. 9>oldstein 01:.
Former UN +ecretary >eneral Ahofi Ennan called the efforts to address the /;one layer
depletion as Fperhaps the single most successful international agreement to date,? and
liberalist are li"ely going to use the this as an e%ample of what institutions can do in
international relations and climate change activists will cite it as the way to go in the fight
against global warming, but they are mista"en.
Es >oldstein put it, the costs of replacing CFCs were much lower than those that need
to be incurred to tac"le global warming. For CFCs cheap alternatives were available this
was in addition to the fact that the ris"s of o;one layer depletion were more immediate
and concretely understood.
*hat would be of the Dontreal Brotocol if U+E did not ratify itG End if the U+E did not
ratify it, would smaller nations li"e Eustralia find it any meaningful to sign itG
7he above .uestion needs an understanding of realism as an international relations theory
to be addressed.
Realism as a hurdle
$ealism is an international relations theory that can be traced bac" to Niccolo
Dachiavelli and 7homas 8obbes. Emong the core beliefs of $ealism are the following
4
6
H 7he world is a harsh and dangerous place. 7he only certainty in the world is
power. E powerful state will always be able to outdoIand outlastIwea"er
competitors. 7he most important and reliable form of power is military power.
& See:
Anne-Marie Slaughter (No year) International Relations, Principal Theories available at:
http://www.princeton.edu/~slauhtr/!rticles/"##$IntlRelPrincipalTheories$%lauhter$#&''&(&)*+.
pd, and -ore principles/assu.ptions o, Realis. available at
http://instructional'.calstatela.edu/tcli.//&0$-ourses/realist$principles.pd,
&
H E state?s primary interest is self&preservation. 7herefore, the state must see" power
and must always protect itself
H 7here is no overarching power that can enforce global rules or punish bad
behavior.
H Doral behavior is very ris"y because it can undermine a state?s ability to protect
itself.
H 7he international system itself drives states to use military force and to war.
Ceaders may be moral, but they must not let moral concerns guide foreign policy.
H International organi;ations and law have no power or force( they e%ist only as long
as states accept them.
7hat is to s.uee;e a whole body of theory into one paragraph because this paper is about
climate.
Dany states pursue realism, led by the U+E
J
the only super power on earth as at now. 7o
put it in a crude way, the U+E relies on its hard power to maintain its hegemony in the
world. 7o have hard power, the U+E has to have a viable economy that funds research
and development or #ust general maintenance of the military. Es such, anything that
affects the U+ economy goes to the heart of the realist machinery this is why the U+E did
not sign the Ayoto Brotocol, one would argue.
7he U+ is only second to China in terms of Carbon ,io%ide emissions
2
, Carbon ,io%ide
being the main greenhouse gas. 7his means that whatever the other players in the Ayoto
Brotocol might have been doing, their efforts were shadowed by the U+E.
Ayoto Brotocol
( /ohn 0earsheimer 1ntervie: Conversations ith *istory2 1nstit"te of 1nternational St"%ies3 4C 5er$eley
(2002) available at: http://globetrotter!ber$eley!e%"/people2/0earsheimer/mearsheimer6con)!html
7 Energy 1nformation ,%ministration (2011) Total -arbon 1io2ide 3.issions ,ro. the -onsu.ption o,
3nery
(
7he Ayoto Brotocol is an international agreement lin"ed to the United Nations
Framewor" Convention on Climate Change, 9UNFCCC: which commits its parties by
setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.
It see"s to curb climate change using three approaches that is the =oint Initiative 9=I:, the
Clean ,evelopment Dechanism 9C,D: and the Cap and 7rade initiative.
=oint Initiative is described in Erticle J of the Ayoto Brotocol. Under Erticle J, any
developed country can invest in an emission reduction pro#ect in any other developed
country as an alternative to reducing emissions domestically. In this way countries can
lower the costs of complying with their Ayoto targets by investing in pro#ects that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions in a developed country where reducing emissions may be
cheaper, and then using the resulting 'mission $eduction Units 9'$Us: towards their
commitment goal.
7he C,D is defined in Erticle 1 of the Brotocol, and is intended to meet two ob#ectives6
91: to assist parties not included in developed countries inde% in achieving sustainable
development and in contributing to the ultimate ob#ective of UNFCCC, which is
to prevent dangerous climate change( and 9: to assist parties included in developed
world in achieving compliance with their .uantified emission limitation and reduction
commitments greenhouse gas emission caps.
7he C,D addresses the second ob#ective by allowing developed countries to meet part of
their emission reduction commitments under the Ayoto Brotocol by buying Certified
'mission $eduction units from C,D emission reduction pro#ects in developing countries
9Carbon 7rust, 001, p. 15:.
International 'missions 7rading or cap and trade is a mar"et&based approach used to
control pollution by providing economic incentives for achieving reductions in the
emissions of pollutants.
7
E central authority 9usually a governmental body: sets a limit or cap on the amount of a
pollutant that may be emitted. 7he limit or cap is allocated or sold to firms in the form of
emissions permits which represent the right to emit or discharge a specific volume of the
specified pollutant.
7he cap and trade was one of the most hailed of the three initiatives but critics have
slammed it saying it is ineffective.
In its report called Designed to fail? The concepts, practices and controversies behind
carbon trading, 7he N>/ Fern unpac"ed the cap and trade and concluded that F7he fact
remains that after more than a decade of carbon trading, the level of C/ in the
atmosphere continues to rise by appro%imately ppm each year.!
Fern argued that the caps set before the trading was launched were plagued by politics
and that they were not designed to address the main issue of reducing emissions by being
set to high allowing for more pollution by heavy polluting nations.
7he cap also only covers countries in the global North and as such allowed countries in
the North to move their production to the +outh and be seen as reducing their pollution.
Es an e%ample, Fern cited China whose emissions rose up 4K because it was the
dumping site for production from the global North. 7his Fcarbon lea"age? gives the
impression of national reductions in the industriali;ed countries whilst global emissions
stay the same or rise.
7he geographical split of .uotas, argued Fern, also meant it was impossible to fit
international aviation and shipping into the cap 9due to the difficulty in apportioning
emissions on a geographical basis: @ a ma#or failing given that together these account for
8
appro%imately five per cent 9and rising: of emissions world&wide. 7he cap has therefore
failed to put a limit on consumption of fossil&fuels.
Es if to .uote from realism where there is no bigger boss above states, Fern also decried
the rampant inade.uate and untrustworthy emission monitoring. Fern estimated error
rates of between 10 to )0 per cent in the calculation of emissions and the high proportion
of self&reporting, and low levels of independent verification, e%acerbated this ris".
+ome firms simply created more pollution in their production processes, Fern said, so
they could claim credits for destroying them at the end of the process.
7he pricing of carbon in the scheme was also said to be dubious -?In Epril 00J, the
price of carbon permits in the 'U '7+ plunged to #ust L 1 per tonne C/e, from a high of
L )0. Eccording to the mar"et, the cost of pollution was virtually nil, as was the reward
for reducing your emissions. If demand for permits were ever high enough to ma"e prices
spi"e, 'U Dember +tates have agreed to meet to find ways of bringing the price of
carbon down again. +o, there are structural chec"s in place to ensure supply and demand
will not be allowed to price polluters out of the mar"et.?
3
7he fact that an important element in shaping the continent?s future was left in the dry to
the mercy of speculators and capitalists shows the lac" of interest from states, if it was an
issue that was a direct threat to the realist hard power machinery, the U+ itself would
have led in ensuring the scheme wor"ed.
Burdon 9011: argues that the carbon trading failure is not due to it being a failure as a
system but rather there being lac" of political will to support it. 7his is an indication that
realism among the great powers might be at play in dealing with climate change.
7his can be seen in China which is currently the biggest emitter of carbon dio%ide and yet
has tried to avoid the Ayoto Brotocol by insisting that it is a developing nation and as
8 9a"ghten , (2010) Designe% to fail: ; <he concepts3 practices an% controversies behin% carbon
tra%ing -ern3 2010 available at:
http://!fern!org/sites/fern!org/files/-E=9#%esigne%tofail#internet#0!p%f
>
such cannot be seen as the U+E for e%ample. China also argues that the rest of the nations
got developed by polluting heavily and that trying to force it to curb pollution might be
e.ual to trying to prevent it from developing.
China instead has invested heavily in clean technologies, but they will not erase the fact
that it is putting out some serious Carbon ,io%ide .uantities into the atmosphere.
Elthough this is #ust because the global North has moved production there and all the
emissions in China are actually due to the ma"ing of goods that will be consumed in the
global North.
Mehind China?s stance is the fact that there is, in the end no one who can force it to curb
pollution, itself being a nuclear power. *hat China needs is more industrial output which
in turn will mean more revenues which can be used to get its blue water navy and get an
army that is as advanced as the U+ to effectively compete on the global stage as super
power.
7he U+ and China are trapped in a prisoners dilemma. It is good for both of them to get
to the climate change table and reduce emissions, but they would rather face the brutal
effects of climate change than give in @ all because of their realist thin"ing where power
is everything and there is no one above the state.
There is hope: Realism as panacea
Dar" Burdon cites /strom 010( Aeohane and Nictor 011 in postitulating that a
consensus is emerging that a comprehensive international regime for cooperation on
climate change is not within reach
1
.
Danuel&Navarrete 9010: agrees with Burdon and says6 #$the gloomy spectacle offered
so far by international climate negotiations suggests that any global response will be
> 0ar$ ?"r%on (2011) -li.ate realis. and .oral li.it in international cli.ate chane politics ,
?aper ?resente% at 1C,=4S 11: Climate @"lnerability an% ,%aptation: 0arginal ?eoples an% Environments
0ay &673 2011 <he 4niversity of 0ichigan3 ,nn ,rbor3 01 available at 4=A: http://!icar"s!info/p6
content/"ploa%s/2011/0(/?"r%on!p%f
10
hindered by traditional, twentieth century, politics as well as by global power
asymmetries.!
7he world has faced crises in the past and in the end, there seems to be always a solution
and the case of climate change, some scholars have suggested that the very realism that is
the current hurdle to progress now can be the panacea if only climate change found a way
into the definition of realism.
8abib 011 argues that despite the general assumption holding that the anarchic
international system consists of competing sovereign states who are unitary, rational
actors the view disregards the fact that this anarchic system is itself housed within the
wider structure of the 'arth?s biosphere
10
.
>ellers 9010: therefore suggests that realism can ta"e in environment as a security issue
and the whole issue of climate change will be on the agenda and conse.uently on the
course to being tac"led with the urgency it needs.
11
+ilburt 901: hinges in on this and writes a case study on Canada. Es if to convince the
realist, he argues that climate change will destroy the environment which may in turn
affect the ability of a state to stay secure.
For example, writes +ilburt, !changes in the environmental conditions of terrain, such
as coastal erosion, increased floods, desertification, and the tha"ing of permafrost, affect
states access or control over strategic territor#, creating ne" opportunities for relative
po"er enhancement as "ell as vulnerabilities and challenges for maintaining securit#
and existing po"er$ Changes in precipitation patterns, temperatures and stream flo"s
affect the abilit# of the terrain to support natural resource based industries$
10 5enBamin *abib (2011) Climate -hane and International Relations Theory: Northeast !sia as a
-ase %tudy ?aper presente% at the Worl% 1nternational St"%ies Committee Third Global International
Studies Conference3 17th ; 20th ,"g"st 20113 4niversity of ?orto3 ?ort"gal! ,vailable at 4=A:
http://%rbenBaminhabib!files!or%press!com/2011/0>/habib6b#isc2011#climate6change6ir6theory6
northeast6asia6case6st"%y!p%f
11 Cellers3 /osh"a Cha%3 -li.ate -hane and 3nviron.ental %ecurity: 4rinin Realis. 4ac5 In
(-ebr"ary 203 2010)! ,vailable at
SS=9: http://ssrn!com/abstractD1(>&81( or http://%.!%oi!org/10!21'>/ssrn!1(>&81(
11
!These changes can also affect a states access to %e# natural resources that help sustain
the domestic populations of states and support its economic and "ar capacit#$ These
changes can also affect the geographical dimensions of its population, causing large&
scale shifts in the si'e, geographic and demographic configuration of the population from
environmental refugees, "hich have implications for the states labor force and create
destabili'ing effects on the econom#, living d#namics and internal stabilit# of the state$
The increasing fre(uenc# and severit# of natural disasters and other adverse
conse(uences associated "ith climate change affect the %e# infrastructure and other
dimensions of state capacit#$ These effects of climate change on the geopolitical
components of po"er affect the relative po"er of states directl# as "ell as their capacit#
to respond to other existing or emerging issues$
1
In realism, states only want to amass more power and they trust no one, if they can be
convinced that climate change whether due to their actions or of other states is going to
wea"en their standing, they will have a huge motive to do something about it. End #ust
li"e the cooperation between the U+ and $ussia in ensuring nonproliferation of nuclear
weapons, the same type of relationships can crop up to combat climate change
proactively.
7he depletion of the /;one layer is a success story today because great powers too"
initiative, in the same vein, if the U+E stepped forward and threw its weight fully behind
combating technology, many nations would li"ely follow. Moth for reciprocity,
dominance or identity reasons as >oldstein would argue.
%ummar!
7he paper has argued that climate change is an agreed upon issue and that to combat it
means costs being paid, these costs however are too much for some realist nations li"e
China and U+E who want to sustain hegemony using spoils of an industry that is emitting
gases into the atmosphere that might throw the earth into serious climate crises.
12 ,viva Silb"rt ! Realist Perspective on -li.ate -hane: The -anadian -onte2t
9orman ?aterson School of 1nternational ,ffairs /an"ary 183 2012
12
$ealism has thus been seen as a bloc" to achieving goals set to combat climate change.
>oals such as the Cap and trade initiative.
In loo"ing for the solution however, the paper did nominate the very realism as the
solutions. Ell that needs to be done is to convince realist states that climate change is out
to get them and to rob them of their ability to stay secure.
In that case the states would and will .uic"ly address climate change.
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