NII 1,560 1,566 (0.4) 1,348 15.7 Pre-prov. profit 1,373 1,137 20.8 1,032 33.0 PAT 285 315 (9.5) 50 474.6 Source: Company, Angel Research UCO Bank reported strong earnings at `285cr against `50cr in 4QFY2013 (on strong CA floats made available during last several quarters due to Indo-Iran trade payments). The operating performance was largely in line with our estimates with NII growth of 15.7% yoy (flat sequentially) and Pre-provisioning profit growth of 33.0% yoy. Tax expense came in at `184cr for 4QFY2014 as against `6cr in 4QFY2013. Healthy business growth; Asset quality improves on higher recoveries and upgrades: During 4QFY2014, the loan book for the bank grew at a healthy pace of 16.6% yoy, while deposit growth was also healthy at 15.1% yoy. Overall CASA ratio for the bank declined 242bp yoy to 29.5%. Sanction on Iran was the main reason behind the Indo-Iran rupee trade arrangements resulting in CA-floats of `18,000-20,000cr for the bank for the past few quarters. Complete lifting of sanctions on Iran remains an overhang on the sustainability of such arrangements and the resulting CA floats for the bank. Yield on advances for the bank declined 21bp qoq at 9.8%. Lower yields on advances resulted in a 13bp qoq decline in the reported NIM. During 4QFY2014, the bank reported stability on the asset quality front, aided by higher recoveries and upgrades though slippages spiked qoq (annualized slippage rate came in higher at 5.5%, as compared to 1.9% as of 3QFY2014 and 5.3% in 4QFY2013). Recoveries/upgrades during the quarter came in much higher sequentially at `1,860cr (against an average of `343cr for the last few quarters). The PCR improved by 270bp qoq to 57% (up 494bp yoy). The Gross NPA ratio decreased 88bp qoq to 4.3%, while the net NPA ratio decreased 68bp qoq to 2.4%. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `709cr during the quarter, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `11,650cr. Outlook and valuation: The bank has a substantial CA float made available on Indo-Iran trade payments. Also stable to improving asset quality and low treasury income volatility is resulting in healthy earnings visibility (EPS CAGR of 57.6% over FY2013-16E, on a low base of FY2013). Moreover return ratios for the bank have improved (RoE, after declining to 9.1% in FY2013, improved to 17.9% in FY2014 and is expected to stay at current levels for FY2015. However at CMP the stock trades at a premium valuation of 0.9x 2016E ABV compared to its peers. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials (Standalone) Y/E March (` cr) FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E FY2016E NII 4,582 6,059 6,677 7,448 % chg 17.4 32.3 10.2 11.6 Net profit 618 1,511 1,603 1,769 % chg (44.2) 144.4 6.1 10.4 NIM (%) 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.7 EPS (`) 5.6 14.9 15.8 17.4 P/E (x) 18.7 7.0 6.6 6.0 P/ABV (x) 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 RoA (%) 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.6 RoE (%) 9.1 16.8 14.2 14.0 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: CMP as of May 29, 2014
NEUTRAL CMP `104 Target Price - Investment Period -
Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 77.2 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 8.9 FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.4 Indian Public / Others 9.5 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 18.0 22.6 34.4 UCO 61.0 32.7 8.4 Reuters Code UCBK.NS UCO@IN BSE Sensex 24,550 Nifty 7,318 Avg. Daily Volume 611,609 Face Value (`) 10 Beta 1.8 52 Week High / Low 115/46 Banking Market Cap (` cr) 10,563
Advances grew healthily; NIM declines on lower CASA During 4QFY2014, the loan book for the bank grew at a healthy pace of 16.6% yoy, while deposit growth was relatively moderate at 15.1% yoy. On the liabilities front, while savings deposits grew at a moderate 13.0% yoy, the overall CASA deposits grew 6.3% yoy, on account of 1.3% yoy decline in current deposits. Overall CASA ratio for the bank declined 242bp yoy to 29.5%. UCO Banks current deposits have grown sharply over the last few quarters on account of substantial float being made available on opening of rupee accounts with the bank for facilitating Indo-Iran trade payments (covering 45% of oil imports from Iran and Indian exports). Yield on advances for the bank declined 21bp qoq at 9.8%. Lower yields on advances resulted in a 13bp qoq decline in the reported NIM.
UCO Bank | 4QFY2014 Result Update
May 30, 2014 4 Exhibit 4: Business growth remains healthy Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 5: CASA ratio lowers on lower CA floats Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: YoA decreases 21bp qoq to 9.8%..... Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 7: .........NIM declines qoq Source: Company, Angel Research
Asset quality witness improvement in 4QFY2014 The bank had been witnessing severe asset quality pain over the last two years until 4QFY2013, as both Gross and Net NPAs, on an absolute basis, more than doubled and Gross NPA ratio reached a high of 5.4%. In 9MFY2014, the asset quality performance for the bank was reasonably moderate as compared to its peers, as both Gross and Net NPAs for the bank, on an absolute basis, grew only by 3-4%. During 4QFY2014, the bank reported stability on the asset quality front, aided by higher recoveries and upgraded though slippages spiked qoq (annualized slippage rate came in higher at 5.5%, as compared to 1.9% as of 3QFY2014 and 5.3% in 4QFY2013). Recoveries/upgrades during the quarter came in much higher sequentially at `1,860cr (against an average of `343cr for last few quarters). Thus, healthy recoveries and upgraded offsetting higher slippages resulted in a sequential decline in absolute Gross and Net NPA levels by 10.0% and 15.7% qoq respectively. The PCR improved by 270bp qoq at 57% (up 494bp qoq). The Gross NPA ratio decreased 88bp qoq to 4.3%, while the net NPA ratio decreased 68bp to 2.4%. Going ahead, the Management has indicated at stable to improving outlook on the asset quality front. 1 1 . 0
May 30, 2014 5 Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `709cr during the quarter, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `11,650cr. Exhibit 8: Higher Slippages ratio qoq Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 9: NPA ratios improve sequentially Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10: Steady Network expansion continues Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 11: Cost ratios improve qoq Source: Company, Angel Research
May 30, 2014 6 Investment arguments Substantial CA floats and de-bulking of balance sheet create upward bias for NIM The bank had a relatively lower NIM of 1.9% in FY2010 due to a low CASA ratio of ~25% and high exposure to relatively low-yielding corporate loans, which constituted 69% of its total loan book then. The NIM has increased to 2.7% in 4QFY2014 and is expected to at least sustain at current levels hereon, aided by the shift in reliance from bulk deposits to retail franchise and substantial CA floats made available on Indo-Iran trade payments (`18,000-20,000cr), coupled with de-bulking of the balance sheet, with increase in retail and SME loans. Outlook and valuation The bank has a substantial CA float made available on Indo-Iran trade payments. Also stable to improving asset quality and low treasury income volatility is resulting in healthy earnings visibility (EPS CAGR of 57.6% over FY2013-16E, on a low base of FY2013). Moreover return ratios for the bank have improved (RoE, after declining to 9.1% in FY2013, improved to 17.9% in FY2014 and is expected to stay at current levels for FY2015. However at CMP the stock trades at a premium valuation of 0.9x 2016E ABV compared to its peers. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Exhibit 12: Key assumptions Particulars (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates FY2015 FY2016 FY2015 FY2016 Credit growth 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Deposit growth 13.0 13.0 15.0 15.0 CASA ratio 29.4 28.7 28.3 27.1 NIMs 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 Other income growth (7.2) 12.7 (8.8) 13.0 Growth in staff expenses 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Growth in other expenses 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 Slippages 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 Coverage ratio 62.5 67.5 62.5 67.5 Source: Angel Research
UCO Bank | 4QFY2014 Result Update
May 30, 2014 7 Exhibit 13: Change in estimates Particulars (` cr) FY2015 FY2016 Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%) Earlier estimates Revised estimates Var. (%) NII 6,732 6,677 (0.8) 7,501 7,448 (0.7) Non-interest income 1,085 1,204 10.9 1,224 1,361 11.2 Operating income 7,817 7,881 0.8 8,725 8,809 1.0 Operating expenses 2,868 2,805 (2.2) 3,298 3,226 (2.2) Pre-prov. profit 4,949 5,076 2.6 5,426 5,583 2.9 Provisions & cont. 2,549 2,786 9.3 2,724 2,963 8.8 PBT 2,400 2,290 (4.6) 2,702 2,621 (3.0) Prov. for taxes 720 687 (4.6) 878 852 (3.0) PAT 1,680 1,603 (4.6) 1,824 1,769 (3.0) Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 14: P/ABV band Source: Company, Angel Research
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 M a r - 0 4 A u g - 0 4 J a n - 0 5 M a y - 0 5 O c t - 0 5 F e b - 0 6 J u l - 0 6 D e c - 0 6 A p r - 0 7 S e p - 0 7 J a n - 0 8 J u n - 0 8 N o v - 0 8 M a r - 0 9 A u g - 0 9 D e c - 0 9 M a y - 1 0 O c t - 1 0 F e b - 1 1 J u l - 1 1 N o v - 1 1 A p r - 1 2 S e p - 1 2 J a n - 1 3 J u n - 1 3 O c t - 1 3 M a r - 1 4 Price (`) 0.5x 0.8x 1.1x 1.4x 1.7x
UCO Bank | 4QFY2014 Result Update
May 30, 2014 8 Exhibit 15: Recommendation summary Company Reco. CMP (`) Tgt. price (`) Upside (%) FY2016E P/ABV (x) FY2016E Tgt. P/ABV (x) FY2016E P/E (x) FY2014-16E EPS CAGR (%) FY2016E RoA (%) FY2016E RoE (%) HDFCBk Neutral 805 - - 3.3 - 14.5 25.2 2.0 23.4 ICICIBk* Buy 1,448 1,797 24.2 1.9 2.4 12.1 18.6 1.6 16.0 YesBk Buy 548 666 21.6 1.9 2.3 8.9 17.8 1.5 23.4 AxisBk Buy 1,849 2,300 24.4 1.7 2.2 10.1 17.5 1.7 18.2 J&KBk Neutral 1,866 - - 1.2 - 7.8 (1.3) 1.2 16.4 SBI* Accumulate 2,632 2,788 5.9 1.5 1.3 10.6 30.5 0.8 14.0 FedBk Neutral 118 - - 1.2 - 9.7 11.6 1.1 13.0 SIB Buy 26 36 37.4 0.9 1.2 5.4 13.4 0.9 16.7 BOB Accumulate 889 993 11.8 0.9 1.0 6.5 13.8 0.7 13.9 PNB Accumulate 994 1,135 14.1 0.9 1.0 6.2 31.3 0.8 14.2 UcoBk Neutral 104 - - 0.9 - 6.0 8.2 0.6 14.0 BOI Buy 317 413 30.4 0.7 0.9 5.0 21.6 0.6 12.2 UnionBk Buy 216 264 22.6 0.7 0.9 5.1 22.4 0.6 12.9 CanBk Buy 430 528 22.8 0.7 0.8 5.7 19.0 0.6 11.0 IDBI# Accumulate 95 107 12.7 0.6 0.7 7.2 37.0 0.5 8.7 DenaBk Accumulate 84 94 11.3 0.7 0.8 5.5 22.4 0.6 11.6 Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), # Without adjusting for SASF Company Background UCO Bank is a mid-sized public sector bank with a balance sheet size of ~`2.4lakh cr. Its branches are concentrated in the eastern and north eastern states (~36%), with relatively large numbers located in the parent state of West Bengal (~13%). It has got significant rural and semi-urban presence, with ~60% of its total network of 2,850+ branches and around 2,100 ATMs located in these areas.
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement UCO Bank 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
List of Key Financial Ratios: Formulas and Calculation Examples Defined for Different Types of Profitability Ratios and the Other Most Important Financial Ratios