may 3, 2014 vol xlIX no 18 EPW Economic & Political Weekly
10 The Resistible Rise of Narendra Modi Sumanta Banerjee Sumanta Banerjee (suman5ban@yahoo.com) is a long-time contributor to EPW and is best known for his book In the Wake of Naxalbari: A History of the Naxalite Movement in India (1980). A rereading of Bertolt Brechts The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui (1941) and Sinclair Lewiss It Cant Happen Here (1935) is helpful in understanding the social psyche in India today that is being moulded by Narendra Modi and is greasing his and his partys path to power. It can happen here. I t takes a great deal of optimism to imagine the next government at the centre without the disquietingly loom- ing presence of Narendra Modi. Yet, such an eventuality could have been prevented, and its onward rush can still be resisted. We are paying the price for forgetting a not too distant past. The heading of this article is a re- phrasing of the title of Bertolt Brechts play The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui. B ertolt wrote it in 1941 after escaping from Germany, and while in exile in Hel- sinki, waiting for a visa to enter the Unit- ed States (US). Curiously enough, during Brechts stay in the US (1941-47), the play was never staged there. Another work of ction this time by a famous American author shared a similar fate of boycott by the establishment in his country. This was the novel, It Cant Happen Here, written by Sinclair Lewis in 1935. Both the play and the novel were written dur- ing a period which saw the rise of Nazism and its consolidation as a ruling power in Germany. A rereading of the two may help us today to understand the social psyche in India that is being moulded by Narendra Modi, and which in its turn is greasing his and his partys path to power. The rereading should also awaken us to the need for resisting in India the repetition of a political experi- ment that gained currency in Germany and Italy during 1930-40, but which ultimately ended up in a global disaster. Thankfully, the Hindu right has not yet been able to assume that monstrous global dimension. The Resistible Rise of Arturo Ui To come back to Brechts play, signi- cantly enough, he chose for his hero an American gangster. He situated his story in Chicago of the 1930s, and moulded the character Arturo Ui on the model of a typical small-time mobster who takes over the citys grocery trade, by aligning with a corrupt local administration and by ruthlessly destroying all opposition. We also discover shades of the well-known contemporary maa don Al Capone. It was a satirical allegory of Hitlers rise to power, which was taking place in Germany at the same time. But the mes- sage of Brechts play moves beyond the contemporaneity of his days. We recog- nise in Arturo Ui the all too familiar local gangster-cum-politician who gets elected to todays Indian Parliament. We discern today the same fears and compulsions among the common citizens, whom Brecht portrayed as victims of economic reces- sion, who were either frightened into submission to Arturo Ui, or lured by money to join his gang. Brecht probes into this mass psychology that bolsters fascism, by pointing to the propensity among the underprivileged to respect and worship the local gangster, who enjoys power at the micro level thanks to the support that he gets from those in power at the macro level. Yet, Brecht reminds us, the rise of Arturo Ui (alias Hitler) could not have been possi- ble without the connivance of the com- mon people and their local politicians. All that is necessary for the triumph of such creatures is that the majority of people hesitate to oppose them, and thereby acquiesce in their rise. But it is not popular opposition alone that can resist the rise of the types of Arturo Ui. It is also the responsibility of states which swear by democracy, to oppose fascism. When Bertolt Brecht wrote this play on his way to the US, he had the American audience in mind, and expected them to understand what was happening in Germany. He tried to present it in terms of the American experi- ence of mobster politics, so that they could pressurise their government to resist Hitler. The US till then had remained a silent spectator to Hitlers genocide of Jews within Germany, and increasing territorial ambitions abroad in the sur- reptitious hope that Hitler would destroy its main enemy, the Soviet Union. It was COMMENTARY Economic & Political Weekly EPW may 3, 2014 vol xlIX no 18 11 only after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour in December 1941 that the US joined the war. Not surprisingly there- fore, as mentioned earlier, this play of Brechts was never staged in the US dur- ing the 1940s. It cut too close to the bones of the ruling syndicate of US sena- tors and the maa. It Cant Happen Here The next work of ction that I am taking up was written by the American author Sinclair Lewis who won the Nobel Prize in 1930. Five years later in 1935 he wrote this semi-satirical novel, against the back- drop of the rise of fascism in the interna- tional arena, and the simultaneous con- solidation of the maa-politician nexus within the US. It is signicant that the l ocale chosen by both Bertolt Brecht and Sinclair Lewis for the operations of their respective heroes/villains is the US. Sinclair Lewiss novel describes the rise of Berzelius Windrip (popularly known as Buzz), a ctional US senator who during his election speeches promises drastic economic and social reforms, while promoting a return to chauvinist patriotism and traditional conservative values (anticipatory echoes of Narendra Modi?). Once he gets elected as the pres- ident, Windrip takes complete control of the administration, and imposes totali- tarian rule with the help of a ruthless paramilitary force. Although ctional, the character of Windrip was based on a real life politician Huey Long, who was pre- paring to run for president at the time when Lewis was writing the novel. The title of the novel reected the mood of complacency of the American liberal-minded voters at that time, who felt that such authoritarianism could never be possible in a democracy like the US. While it did not indeed happen then, a little over a decade later, Lewiss night- mare turned out to be true, when under the rule of a president that they had elected Harry Truman Americans had a taste of authoritarianism. In 1947, Truman introduced a number of meas- ures that destroyed civil liberties, lead- ing up to the virtual control of the administration by the House Committee on Un-American Activities which inaugu- rated the notorious McCarthy era of the 1950s (named after the Republican sena- tor who unleashed a ruthless campaign against communists and liberals, and persecuted eminent writers like Lillian Hellman and lm personalities like Charles Chaplin). Sinclair Lewis, when writing his novel in 1935, had a premonition of the things that were coming. Observing from close quarters his contemporary American middle classes, he could discern their smug self-contentedness and indifference in the face of the growth of corruption and gangsterism among their own politicians tendencies that were to fertilise the seeds of the McCarthy type fascist order that emerged in the US in the 1950s. These two literary works, in their respective ways, reawaken us to our responsibilities today in resisting the rise of a new ruling dispensation in India that threatens the secular fabric of our Constitution and the pluralistic culture of our society. We can go on quibbling over the question whether fascism is the appropriate term to describe it an exercise which certain intellectuals are fond of indulging in. But the stark reality is that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders by their announcements, and their cadres by their acts, demonstrate the same personality-based political strategy of combining populist rhetoric from public platforms at the macro level, and intimidation and terrorisation of the citizens at the micro level that Hitler and Mussolini followed in the 1930s. Neo-Hindutva in the Era of Neo-liberalism Narendra Modi, who has been chosen by the Sangh parivar as the prime ministe- rial candidate, has turned out to be the best exponent of this strategy. Following in the footsteps of those two notorious global personalities, he has managed to project himself as the man for all sea- sons and all classes. He uses the ha- rangue of Hindutva when wooing voters in the cow-belt (where he berates against the enemies of go-mata), the rhetoric of economic development (a la the Gujarat model) when addressing the corporate sector, the discourse of governance to assure the middle-class voters of ef- ciency in administration, the militarist bombast of defending the nation to draw support from the armed forces and their top brass, and invokes his childhood memories as a chai-wala to solicit votes from the poor. Like his German and Italian predecessors, he also uses his foot soldiers the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)- Bajrang Dal goons to bull- doze into submission those who o ppose him. He eminently ts the standards laid down in an ancient Sanskrit proverb: Manasya-anyad, bachasya-anyat, kar- manya-anyad, duratma-nam (A villains thoughts, utterances and actions differ from each other). But there is a method in this contra- diction in Modis strategy and tactics, by which he had built up an image that has elevated him from a villain (of the 2002 Gujarat genocide) to a hero (of economic development) in the popular psyche. The mainstream media, bankrolled by the corporate sector, are fostering his electoral potentialities, picking upon only those aspects of his partys agenda that suit them (like promises of industrial growth) while ignoring the other con- troversial aspects (like his promise to build a temple on the disputed site of Babri masjid, abrogate Article 370, and impose a uniform civil code). The media hype around Modi is reminiscent of the role of the European press in the 1930s, when it continued to depict Hitler and Mussolini as amiable guys who were expected to defeat the com- munists, till the Axis powers reached right on the doorstep of the Western capitalist states. But while recalling the past and iden- tifying the similarities, we should take a more astute view of the Hindu right in India today. It is not an exact replica of the fascist forces of the past. As its most powerful representative, Narendra Modi is refashioning the strategy and tactics of a populist chauvinist nationalism (the ideology that was followed by the Axis powers in their respective states in the 1930-40 period and by the Hindu right in India) within the present order of globalisation. He has developed a concept of neo-Hindutva to suit the demands of the neo-liberal economy. While remaining loyal to the Sangh parivars basic strategy of establishing a Hindu theocratic state COMMENTARY may 3, 2014 vol xlIX no 18 EPW Economic & Political Weekly 12 of Ram rajya (a parallel to the contem- porary Islamic project of creating a shar- ia-based political order), Modi is coming up with tactics to accommodate foreign multinationals and the indigenous cor- porate sector. Under his leadership, the Hindu right is thus attempting a mix b et ween Reliance and Ram Janmabhoomi. It is adopting the neo-liberal order in economy, while retaining its core ideo- logy of Hindutva to establish its hege- mony in the socio cultural scene. By occupying a leading position in the insti- tutions of power, it plans to reinforce its values and norms all over society. It Can Happen Here To take the cue from Sinclair Lewiss novel, if a Narendra Modi-led BJP comes to power, we can be sure that the follow- ing things can happen here (i) the imposition of a Hindutva-based curricu- lum in educational institutions (signs of which were evident during the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) regime); (ii) clamping down on cultural works that may be deemed offensive to the Sangh parivars ideology of Hindutva (like banning of books, vandalising of art exhibitions, suppression of historical research policies and practices fol- lowed by the BJP in states which it rules, and by its foot soldiers in other states); (iii) iniction of patriarchal diktats on all expressions of female self-assertion, and deprecation of womens rights (re- member Modis infamous statement that women in Gujarat were malnourished because they chose to be slim!); and (iv) most dangerously the intimidation of the minority communities into total subjugation (the notorious example be- ing the nal solution type experiment carried out against Muslims in Narendra Modi-ruled Gujarat in 2002, which by threatening them has compelled their leaders to accept Modi as their protector). Despite this horrendous record of the BJP, and Narendra Modi in particular, certain sections of the Indian intellectual milieu are veering towards Modi some openly joining his party, and some through specious arguments in news- paper columns. One such argument is that once Modi comes to power, he will be chastened by the rules of the Indian Constitution by which he will have to operate within a democratic structure. These commentators suffer from a self- induced amnesia by conveniently forget- ting that Modi and his party had always got away by violating the rules of the Constitution whether by demolishing the Babri masjid, or by presiding over the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat. The delusion (or opportunism?) of these liberal sections reminds us of the same American middle-class compla- cency that Sinclair Lewis exposed in his novel. In India today, given the tottering and corruptible base of the institutions that prop up the democratic structure the legislature, the bureaucracy and the judiciary would it not be a cake walk for Narendra Modi, if he comes to power, to bend them to serve both his mega lomaniac ambitions and his partys ideological goals? Past Misdeeds and Future Responsibilities In fact, the rise of the BJP and the legiti- misation of its ideology of Hindutva and politics of violence in the 1980-90 period, were made possible by a series of misdeeds of a professedly secular Congress government at the centre, beginning from the opening of the doors of the Babri masjid to the Hindu religionists. It then allowed the BJP-RSS-VHP axis to drum up Hindu sentiments over the Ram Janmabhoomi issue under their p ilot L K Advani, whose ratha-yatra left a bloody trail of communal riots in its wake. Even after having witnessed the murderous consequences of such public demonstration by the forces of Hindutva, the Congress government in New Delhi accepted at face value their assurances of peaceful behaviour, and allowed their leaders and goons to assemble in Ayodhya, demolish the Babri masjid, and reopen the wounds of Indian historys most shameful chapter of bloody Hindu-Muslim conict in colours of mass violence not seen since the days of the 1947 Partition. The left and other democratic forces also failed to mount a counter-offensive against this march of the Sangh parivars juggernaut that was taking place under the bene- volent auspices of the Congress regimes policy of soft- Hindutva. It is an uphill task now to make amends for the wrongs and failures of the past, and reverse the process of dis- tortion of the Indian polity by a class of criminals who have risen to positions of atrocious eminence whether from the BJP, the Congress, the Samajwadi Party, or the various regional formations. To suit their interests, and bereft of any ideological commitment, they tend to join any national formation the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), the NDA or irt with other national alternatives like the third front, or the newly oated idea of a federal front. The next Lok CENTRE FOR STUDIES IN SOCIAL SCIENCES, CALCUTTA (CSSSC) Doctoral Programme 2014 (Afliated to Jadavpur University, Kolkata) Advertisement No. CSSSC 02/2014 Applications are invited from eligible candidates for admission to the Doctoral Programme 2014 for which a maximum of 15 (fteen) candidates will be admitted. For eligibility criterion and other details please visit: http://www.cssscal.org. Applicants may also contact the Ofce of the Programme Ofcer (M.Phil.-Ph.D.) at CSSSC at R-1, Baishnabghata Patuli Township, Kolkata - 700 094. Application Forms available on the website and from ofce of the Centre. Last date of receiving application, May 9, 2014. REGISTRAR COMMENTARY Economic & Political Weekly EPW may 3, 2014 vol xlIX no 18 13 Fallibility of Opinion Polls in India Praveen Rai There are many challenges in conducting election surveys that measure voter preferences correctly and when the results of these surveys are used to make seat predictions the margin of error can be large. As the record of pre-poll opinion surveys in the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections shows, the opinion polls have many weaknesses while attempting to make forecasts in a complex situation. In such a setting, the polls can be used as covert instruments by political parties to make seat predictions and thereby inuence the electorate. T he very mention of the word opinion poll 1 immediately brings to the mind of people election surveys, exit polls 2 and seat pre dictions that appear in the mass media every time an election takes place in the country. Psephology, the study of elections, began as an academic exercise at the Centre for the Study of Developing S ocieties (CSDS), Delhi in the 1960s for the purpose of studying the voting b ehaviour and attitudes of the voters. Psephology is now equated with pre- poll surveys and exit polls which are done by almost all media houses to predict the winners of elections. It has now been reduced to a media gimmick with allegations that it is used as a c ommunication tool by a conglomerate of political parties, media and business houses with vested interests to inu- ence voters. Media houses and televi- sion anchors in India have become modern-day Nostradamuses using opinion poll ndings to forecast elec- tion results before the actual votes are cast, forecasts which have gone wrong on many occasions. The accuracy of sample surveys de- pends on the following factors. One, the sample should be large enough to yield the desired level of precision. The size of the required sample for any survey can be statistically determined. Those who do not have the experience can use statistical tables that provide various sample sizes based on the population size of the universe. However in some cases, the sample size depends upon the level of disaggregation for which the data is required. Two, everyone in the population should have an equal chance of being selected in the sample. Prob ability sampling based on random method is the best way for ensuring that everyone in the universe stands an equal chance of getting selected. Three, survey questions should be asked of the sampled respondents in a standardised manner. (Standardisation ensures that questions are asked in the same manner to all the sampled respond- ents as that will enable the r espondents to r espond accurately.) Four, there should not be any predetermined arbi- trariness in interviewing the sampled respondents. An accurate survey should follow some basic norms: Every member of the targeted popu- lation should have an equal chance of being selected for the survey. Prob ability sampling ensures everyone a fair and equal chance of getting selected which results in avoiding coverage error. The size of the sample to be selected should be adequate enough to achieve the required level of precision. The a ttempt should be to minimise sam- pling error. The questions to be asked should be simple and clearly worded so that the res pondents can understand and answer them easily. The question to be asked should be worded in such a man- ner that it stimulates the respondents to a nswer it correctly. This reduces the measurement error though it cannot be totally avoided. The sampled respondents who are contacted and interviewed during the survey should have similar traits as those who could not be interviewed. Everyone in the sample who responds to the survey should have correspond- ing characteristics with those who This is a slightly modied version of the article, Status of Opinion Bills, which was published in the Web Exclusives section of EPW last week. Praveen Rai (praveenrai@csds.in) is a political analyst at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Delhi. Sabha thus may become a choice terrain for intrigues among these abominable ef- uvia of self-serving, criminal and cor- rupt politicians which will ow from the ongoing polls. The handful of honest and courageous individuals who may get elected to the Lok Sabha, will stick out as sore thumbs from the midst of this cesspool. But they can make a difference if they are sincere in their commitment to the secular and democratic values embedded in our Constitution. They will have to combine their debating skills on the oors of the legislature with their ability to mobilise the masses in the streets, in order to re- sist the domination and criminalisation of society by religio-political groups like the Sangh parivar, as well as the corrup- tion of our political system by the corpo- rate boss-politician-bureaucrat nexus.