Epilogue

because there is more to know

www.epilogue.in CONTENTS

Editor in Chief the return of Letters to the editor

Prologue
2
3
Zafar Choudhary
democracy in Reports
Consulting Editor
D. Suba Chandran
neighbourhood, The SOZ Factor 9
Oil Hunt 10
Associate Editor
its significance for Land Of Rising Sons 12
Irm Amin Baig jammu and kashmir Transparency
Photo Division Legal Opinion On
J.P. Bandral
J&K RTI Amendment Bill 32
Designs & Layout
Keshav Sharma Volume 2, Issue 3, March 2008 Special Report
Salwa Judum :
Executive Director A Purification Hunt ? 37
Mohammad Yasmeen IN FOCUS
Ladakh Politics
Mailing Address The Return Of Democracy In Ladakh UT Movement :
PO Box 50, HO Gandhi Nagar,
Neighbourhood, its significance for Empty Rattling 39
Jammu & Kashmir
Jammu
Commentary
Phones & email India’s Australia Series
Editorial: +91 94194-80762 And Beyond 42
16 Pakistan Election 2008
Administration:+91 9419631610
+91 9419000123 Return of Democracy ? Review
29
editor@epilogue.in Book 44
subscription@epilogue.in
30 Pakistan Elections And India-Pakistan Movie 45
Peace Process
Edited, Printed and Published by Columns
Zafar Choudhary for CMRD
Publications and Communications
Tareekh 47
Published from ‘Ibadat’, Madrasa Jest Ponder 49
Lane, Bhatindi Top, Jammu, J&K
Security
Printed at Mizoram 51
Dee Dee Reprographix, Jammu
Analysis
Disputes, if any, subject to jurisdiction Human Rights Situation In
of courts and competitive tribunals in
Jammu only.
Pak, Gilgit And Baltistan 52
Epilogue
Price : Rs 40
From the Consulting Editor 54
Epilogue Ø
1×
January 2008
 M A I L B O X
LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Letters
Mail your letters to editor@epilogue.in

I FOUND EPILOGUE INTERESTING

- B G Verghese
Center For Policy Research

Formerly Editor Indian Express, Hindustan Times, Advisor to Prime Minister Indira Gandhi

Epilogue Ø
2×
March 2008

Let’s Start Talking
Zafar Choudhary
Many people may not be the immediate
beneficiaries or victims of any electoral
process but still a majority is seen as a
keen watcher of elections and processes
that involve change of regime. Our
immediate neighbourhood, Pakistan,
went to elections on February 18 and in
Jammu and Kashmir the event evoked a
keen interest. People remained glued to
the television screens to watch the
outcome, the local press carried the
reportage prominently and the process
involved a dominant discourse at all
places –from casual discussions at the tea
stalls to the working committee
meetings of the political parties. It was
not just the educated and the media-
conscious here that had focused
attention on the Pakistan elections,
every one was equally keen. Why the
Pakistan elections assumed so much of
importance in Jammu and Kashmir? After
all it is our immediate neighbourhood.
“You can change a friend but not a
neighbour, therefore always pray for the
wellbeing for the neighbour as it is in
your own interest”, says the wisdom.
Developments in Pakistan are always
keenly watched not only in J&K but also
in most of India. This time, however,
people were not only watching the
process but were also praying for the
positive outcome. For the internal
disturbance in Pakistan, the Kashmir
peace process stands stalled for almost
a year. While there is no positive talking
with Islamabad, the course of dialogue
between New Delhi and Srinagar too has
not been moving forward because
stability in Pakistan has a direct bearing
on the peace process. Most mainstream
and separatist politicians here decided
to wait and watch till a clearer picture
emerged in Pakistan. Pakistan has seen
most turbulent times since the beginning
of last year. Incidentally that was the
time when the contours of peace process
and thus possibilities of stability in the
region were looking brightest in the
P R O L O G U E
FROM THE EDITOR
recent years. 2007 was, therefore, often
described as a defining moment in the
history of Kashmir peace process. It all
derailed. The assassination of Benazir
Bhutto came as most unfortunate event in
the neighbourhood. With her death the
possibilities of stability returning to
Pakistan appeared further grim. The
much awaited and the much suspected
elections are now over. Contrary to wide
apprehensions of rigging and violence,
the elections have been relatively fair
and free of any major incident of
violence. Pakistan can be seen limping
back to democracy though not much
towards normalcy. People had been
watching the Pakistan elections with
keen interest but not knowing much
about the internal political structure of
the country. Our Consulting Editor D
Suba Chandran with his expert team
including Rekha Chakravarthi, Devyani
Srivastva had been keeping a keen eye
on the neighbourhood. They bring the
exclusive reportage and analysis after
reading which you don't need to read
more about Pakistan politics at the
regional and provincial levels. A report
from Madiha Tallat, our associate in
Lahore, brings a precise picture from
the ground and tells story of missing
Kashmir from political discourse.
Situation unfolding in the near future
has to bee seen keenly. As things move
toward stability in Pakistan, the signs
of instability are emerging from
India. There are possibilities of
country going to elections later this
year. If we realize the significance or
democracy in neighbourhood there is also
need to realize the urgency of utilizing
the opportunity. Once things settle
down in Islamabad, India and Pakistan
should start talking peace and talking
Kashmir.
Feedback :
zafar.choudhary@epilogue.in
Epilogue Ø
3×
March 2008
Epilogue
because there is more to know
EPILOGUE aims at providing a
platform where a meaningful
exchange of ideas, opinion and
thoughts can take place among the
people and about the people of Jammu
& Kashmir. The attempt is to research,
investigate, communicate and
disseminate information, ideas and
alternatives for the resolution of
common problems facing the state and
society of Jammu & Kashmir and in
the context of their significance to
South Asia as a whole.
We welcome contributions from
academics, journalists, researches,
economists and strategic thinkers. We
would also like to encourage first-time
writers with the only requirements
being a concern for and the desire to
understand the prevailing issues and
themes of life in Jammu & Kashmir
Contributions may be investigate,
descriptive, analytical or theorectical.
They may be in the form of original
articles or in the form of a comment on
current events. All contributions have
to be neatly types in double space and
may be sent to the address given
alongside or e-mailed to the editor.
While the editor accepts responsibility
for the selection of the material
published, individual authors are
responsible for the facts, figures and
viess ithe tier articles.
 H E A R A N D H E A R

WHO SAID WHAT

“We
a
land re not sell
could to outside ing the
r
on le be provid s, but it
ase fo e
r the d to them
of inf devel
rastru opme
cture nt
”

Ghulam Nabi Azad

“Congress will be keeping its options open for the poll alliance with any party. I think PDP will
also have the same situation”
Saifudin Soz

“The successive Governments in Delhi were never sincere to mitigate sufferings of the masses
instead, they played regional and communal cards for its own vested interests”
Dr Farooq Abdullah

“The Army must only be used as a last resort and for a minimal period”
Gen Deepak Kapoor, Chief of Army Staff, Indian Army

“According to our intelligence inputs, present number of militants in the Valley is 450”
MS Gupta, IG CRPF Kashmir – Operations

“It is not our duty. It is for the executive to decide how to consider the matter. We cannot pass
such direction,”
Chief Justice K G Balakrishanan heading the bench on expediting the execution of death sentence of Mohammad Afzal

Epilogue Ø
4×
March 2008

February 1:
The Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati has
declared to contest elections on all 87
assembly constituencies of J&K.
Elections are due later this year. Party
national general secretary Narinder
Kashyap told a press conference in
Srinagar that BSP wants to play a serious
role in J&K. "People of the State are fed
up with corrupt and self centered
politicians, and BSP will provide young,
dynamic and clean leadership which will
work for peace and development of the
State," he added.
February 2:
First cross-LoC infiltration bid of this year
if foiled in Mendhar sector of Poonch
district in which three top militants,
believed to be Pakistanis, and two police
personnel including a constable and a
Special Police Officer are killed while an
Army soldier is injured. A heavy exchange
of gunfighting started between the two
sides after a contact with the infiltrators
was established in dense Ghani forests,
about a couple of kms inside the LoC.
February 3:
PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti meets PM
Manmohan Singh in New Delhi and
projects demand for safe return of
youths and political leaders who had
gone across during turmoil and are now
eager to return. She said any relief to the
youth who had gone across for arms
training and are now eager to return and
live normal life, should be extended to
non-combatants as well who had gone
across during the turmoil, under
whatever circumstances. "It will be a
significant goodwill gesture and a
reconciliatory move of great essence on
behalf of the Government of India," she
said.
February 4:
Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf
advocats the need for creating an
"enabling environment" for the success of
the Indo-Pak peace process and said the
C H R O N O L O G Y
J&K FEBRUARY 2008
Kashmir issue could be resolved through
"sincerity, courage and flexibility". In a
message on the "Kashmir solidarity day"
he said, "we firmly believe that an
enabling environment is necessary for
the success of the peace process." "We
remain engaged in a sincere, sustained
and purposeful dialogue with India on
Kashmir. We believe that with sincerity,
courage and flexibility, we can achieve a
solution to the long-standing Kashmir
dispute," he said.
February 5:
Heavy snowfall, rains and landslides
throw life out of gear across J&K. The
Jammu-Srinagar highway –only surface
link between two capitals –is closed and
hundreds of passengers get stranded on
both sides.
February 6:
Punjab National Bank announces plan to
put all branches in J&K on National
Network of Centralized Banking Solutions
(CBS) by March 2008 and also to link these
branches with other banks for National
Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) system.
Vivek Arya, PNB Zonal Manager, says that
branches in rural areas would be linked to
National Network with Double VSAT
connectivity while lease line and ISDN
medium provided by BSNL would be used
for city and district headquarters
branches.
February 7:
J&K DGP says that some 550 to 600
militants infiltrated from across LoC into
the state. He says that despite internal
turmoil in Pakistan, there was not let up
in infiltration. Based on inputs the DGP
says that terror infrastructure was intact
in Pakistan and its administered Kashmir.
February 8:
At least 20 people are reported killed in
different parts of state following heavy
snowfall and cold weather persisting for
last six days. Many still are missing.
Epilogue Ø
5×
March 2008
February 9:
Expressing serious concern over the
failure of various States including J&K to
create better infrastructure for the
judiciary, Chief Justice of India Justice K
G Balakrishnan said that judiciary
empowered with adequate
infrastructure can contribute to the
overall growth of the country. "It is pity
that executive is neglecting judiciary
while carrying out infrastructure
development. Executive should keep in
mind that we don't have any financial
output". He was addressing valedictory
function of Lok Adalat Week in the High
Court Complex in Jammu.
February 10:
Three soldiers of Pakistan Army
inadvertently land inside Indian territory
in RS sector, close to IB in Jammu region.
They have been identified as Nasir
Ahmed, Amzad Farooq and Syed Zia-ul-
Shah, aged between 24 and 26, were
unarmed. They were taken into custody
and questioning revealed that they were
the sportspersons of Pak army who lost
their way and landed in Indian side. They
were later pushed off in a gesture of
goodwill.
February 11:
129 civilians cross Line of Control (LoC)
on Poonch-Rawlakot bus service from
Chakkan-Da-Bagh in Poonch district.
While 81 persons travelled from Poonch
to Pakistan administered Kashmir, 48
boarded the bus from PaK to Poonch. Out
of 81 civilians, who travelled from
Poonch to PaK, 29 were first timers
visiting from this side to PoK to meet
divided families and relatives while 52
were PaK citizens who went back homes
after spending two fortnights on this
side. Among 48 persons who came to
Poonch from PaK, 21 arrived here from
PaK to meet their relatives while 27 were
J&K citizens who returned after spending
a month in PaK.
February 11:
The toll of militants in the Valley has

decreased and presently it is less than
thousand which is lowest since inception
of militancy. "According to our
intelligence inputs, present number of
militants in the Valley is 450," MS Gupta,
IG CRPF Kashmir – Operations said. But it
is a floating population and they are
always on move. The maximum number
could be upto 950. They (militants) are
always on move.
February 12:
The State Human Rights Commission
(SHRC) today issues notices to Inspector
General of Police Kashmir range and
Deputy Commissioner Kupwara asking
them submit a report on the alleged
firing by Army on protestors at Kupwara.
Taking suo moto cognisance of reports in
local media about the incident, acting
Chairman of the SHRC H U Bhat directed
IGP S M Sahai and Deputy Commissioner
Asfandyar Khan to submit the report by
Feb 25.
February 13:
The Central government agrees to
construct a 1000 MW thermal power
plant in Udhampur within a period of
three years. Decision is taken in a
meeting between CM GN Azad and Union
Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. The
Center also agreed to joint funding of the
Baglihar hydro-electric project on
Chenab River. In yet another decision the
modernization of Jammu and Srinagar
airports was agreed upon by the Civil
Aviation Ministry, besides sanctioning
two new airports for rural area –Kishtwar
and Surankote.
February 13:
Kashmiri Congress leader and Union
Minister for Water Resources Saif-ud-Din
Soz is formally appointed as president of
J&K unit of Congress.
February 14:
Former CM and NC leader Dr Farooq
Abdullah blames New Delhi for unrest
and militancy in state. He said that
Central Governments always played
C H R O N O L O G Y
J&K FEBRUARY 2008
regional card and tried to divide people
of the State on regional and communal
basis. "They want us to keep fighting with
each other so that they can rule us", he
added.
February 16:
NC President Omar Abdullah declared
that his party was ready for pre-poll
alliance with the like minded parties for
forthcoming assembly elections in the
state. He said "the question of thinking
about post poll alliance does not arise at
this stage but we are open for the pre-
poll alliance with like minded parties to
face the coalition partners in the ensuing
Assembly elections".
February 17:
Gujjar and Bakerwal Joint Forum serves
an ultimatum to the leaders of PDP and
NC who have been pursuing agenda of ST
status to non-tribal Pahari speaking
people to shun their anti-tribal Gujjar
policies or remain prepared to face wrath
of STs in the State.
February 18:
Clearing the air on buying land in Jammu
and Kashmir controversy, Chief Minister
Ghulam Nabi Azad says there was nothing
wrong in offering land on lease to
outsiders for development purposes. "We
are not selling the land to outsiders, but
it could be provided to them on lease for
the development of infrastructure," he
said adding that Jammu and Kashmir has
to open up to achieve all round
development.
February 19 :
In exercise of the powers vested in him
under section 53 of the Constitution of
Jammu and Kashmir, Governor Lt. Gen.
(Retd) S.K. Sinha prorogues both the
Houses of State Legislature, which were
adjourned sine die by Speaker Tara Chand
on January 30.
February 21:
Six persons including a Russian tourist are
Epilogue Ø
6×
March 2008
killed and four others injured when a
vehicle, they were travelling in, plunged
into a 100 feet deep gorge at Champeri
on Jammu-Srinagar National Highway
near Udhampur.
February 22:
UPA chairperson and Congress president
Sonia Gandhi accompanied by Home
Minister Shivraj Patil and a team of Union
Home Ministry visits the remote areas of
Bhadarwah, Navapachi and Marwah to
review the situation caused by the recent
heavy snowfall, which took 30 lives in the
State besides rendering several people
homeless.
February 23:
Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor says
that the infiltration of militants from
across the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir was
on decline but the attempts had gone up
in the recent past. In 2006, the
infiltration was approximately 343 as per
our count. In 2007, the figure stood at
311," he said in a television interview.
February 24:
PDP President Mehbooba Mufti blames NC
for turmoil in state. She also holds the
party responsible for killing prominent
political leaders in Kashmir. Reacting to a
statement of former CM Dr Farooq
Abdullah, the PDP chief says, "when Dr
Abdullah remains in the power he
showers all praises on the Delhi and
speaks critical against Pakistan but starts
outbursts against the Union Government
when he is out of the corridors of the
power".
February 25:
President of India, Pratibha Patil in her
address to join sitting of Parliament says
that the Government is focusing on
confidence building in all sections of
society in Jammu and Kashmir by
ensuring easier travel across the Line of
Control and meeting the aspirations of
the people to foster peace and normalcy.
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‘High Command’ Balances Political
Fulcrum Ahead Of Polls
Epilogue News & Analysis
The Assembly elections in Jammu and
Kashmir are due later this year and the
Congress party –currently leading the
government in alliance with Peoples
Democratic Party –is preparing for the
game in a different way. Eye brows were
raised in the political circles when the
Congress president Sonia Gandhi
appointed Union Water Resources
Minister Prof Saif-ud-Din Soz as
president of Jammu and Kashmir unit of
Congress. The post had fallen vacant
a f t e r r e s i g n a t i o n o f Pe e r z a d a
Mohammad Sayeed in January, who had
to quit as Minister also, following
allegations of corruption. Opposition to
the nomination of Soz is well known in
the rank and file of state Congress. Till
recently he was with the National
Conference but the Congress 'high
command' in Delhi pushed for his
meteoric rise in organization as well as
in government since he played an
instrumental role in the fall of BJP led
NDA government in the devastating 1999
floor test in the Lok Sabha. Soz was
subsequently expelled by the National
Conference. Later same year he
contested election for Lok Sabha from
the North Kashmir just to suffer a
humiliating defeat and even to loose his
security deposits. Soz then stood in the
middle of nowhere before Congress
ventured out to honour him for the
symbolic role he played in fall of NDA
government by abstaining voting in the
Lok Sabha despite a clear party whip. A
couple of years later the Congress
formally inducted him into the party and
then rewarded with a seat in the Rajya
Sabha.
Soz's induction in the Congress in a way
challenged the role of Ghulam Nabi Azad
R E P O R T S
THE SOZ FACTOR
who had been enjoying the 'Kashmir
space' in the party for nearly 30 years. In
2004, Congress returned to power and
Ghulam Nabi Azad, also Rajya Sabha
member from J&K, was inducted as
Minister for Parliamentary Affairs. Azad
was also an AICC General Secretary and
member of the Congress Working
Committee –the two most powerful
positions anyone would aspire to have in
the Congress. In November 2005, the
Congress 'high command' decided to send
Azad back to Jammu and Kashmir to
replace Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as
Chief Minister under the PDP-Congress
power sharing pact of 2002. By this
appointment he had to loose the position
of AICC General Secretary though he
remained an invitee to the CWC for a
brief while by virtue of being the Chief
Minister of a Congress run state.
Azad's exit from Delhi marked the
organizational rise of Soz. Few months
later, he replaced Azad as member of the
Congress Working Committee. This
underlined Congress' redrawn Kashmir
Epilogue Ø
9×
March 2008
priorities. Same year, Soz was inducted as
Union Minister for Water Resources and his
growing clout in Delhi started showing.
Despite his rise in the government and
organization in Delhi, the Congress unit in
Jammu and Kashmir refused to be aligned
with Soz. Instead a large majority
continued to swear by Azad. Now when Soz
is president of the J&K unit of the
Congress, a general feeling in the political
circles says that Azad is being sidelined
and Soz is being propped up as parallel
power center in the state. The political
observers and the Congress insiders
capable of reading the 'high command'
pulse refuse to buy this theory.
Background
After 1987 blot which it earned by rigging
elections in alliance with National
Conference under the infamous Rajiv-
Farooq accord, the Congress in Jammu
and Kashmir had been relegated to
oblivion till 2002. Ghulam Nabi Azad was
appointed as state Congress president in
April 2001 replacing Mohammad Shafi
Qureshi –an honest politician with no
contacts with ground. Qureshi's vast
experience of serving as Governor of
several states would often make him
allergic to the public and thus distance
Congress from the grassroots. When Azad
took over, he found the going tough. The
Congress was divided into dozens of
lobbies and there was a whole hostile
atmosphere. Situation was more critical in
Kashmir Valley where showing Congress
flag was next to a sin. He had his political
career at the cross roads. Elections were
due next year and only a better
performance could have restored him the
powerful organizational position in Delhi.

He made a careful poll strategy and
embarked on Jammu-centric
campaign. “For first time since
independence, you will get a Chief
Minister from Jammu region” –this
become the central campaign theme
and there was an overwhelming
response cutting across all lines.
Congress fetched 15 seats from
Jammu, five from Kashmir and then
another group of five independent
legislators from Jammu region joined
the Congress as associate members.
The party was back to the power
structure after two decades. Azad
was recalled in Delhi with his fresh
election to Rajya Sabha and the
powerful post of AICC General
Secretary was restored to him.
Mapping Future
When Congress prepares for 2008
elections, things are not all the same.
At a time when the Kashmir peace
process can be seen entering a
defining moment, a national political
party like Congress can not afford to
make regions and sub-regions as
themes of poll campaign. The party
has given Jammu region the Chief
Minister and therefore the
organization president is from the
Valley. Then what difference Soz
makes when the previous party chief
was also from the Valley? Obviously,
his stature. Soz carries a profile which
matches that of Azad. Being a Union
Minister he will also wield some
symbolic clout and influence in the
Valley when the party embarks on poll
campaign later this year. If there
some discontent in the Valley about
the Chief Minister being from Jammu
region, the Soz does fact does some
balancing act. Soz's appointment, it is
believed, comes with full concurrence
of the Chief Minister Azad.
Feeback : editor@epilogue.in
R E P O R T S
OIL HUNT
Geology : Fueling
Indo-Pak Cooperation
Epilogue News & Analysis
“Geology is non political and does not
believe in boundaries”, if this realized by
the hostile South Asian neighbours –India
and Pakistan –they can look at making
Jammu and Kashmir an area of
cooperation rather than contentions as
this place been between the two
countries for sixty years now. The arrival
of leading Pakistani geologists and
executives from the oil companies for
exploring the oil and gas potential in
Jammu and Kashmir can be a beginning in
this direction.
Being non-political in nature and for the
absence of J&K Chief Minister as Chief
Guest, an international conference
hosted by the University of Jammu in
February could not the media attention as
this subject and its future course should
have got. 140 geoscientists drawn from 60
Proterozoic and Evaporite-Dolomite
Succession of Jammu –A Note
S ystematic geological mapping of
Sirban Limestone in Reasi inlier
revealed the existence of black shales,
mudstones interbedded with
stromatolitic dolomite. This clastic-
carbonate suite of rocks is associated
with orthoquartzite beds in the
measured sections in Reasi inlier. The
black shale and mudstone/mari bleds,
laterally pinching are traceable from
west of Reasi Town in Talwar to Bukkal,
Mari, Anji in the northwest to Kotli in the
southwest. We also took a few traverses
across Proterozoic evaporate-dolmite
succession in Doda and Ramban Districts
and observed occurrences of
carbonaceous phyllite and carbonaceous
shale units in association with limestone
bands interbedded with gypsum beds.
The stratigraphic section at Chakwa nala
Epilogue Ø
10 ×
March 2008
countries, particularly Europe, Middle East
and Pakistan, gathered at Jammu University
campus and traveled across the rugged
terrains of Jammu region to study the rock
patterns which if dug deep can make
Jammu and Kashmir yet another Gulf.
“This Conference was not J&K specific or
Indo-Pak specific on oil and gas exploration
as believed by many”, says Prof GM Bhat of
the Department of Geology at JU. In fact,
Bhat says, the initiative was actually to
study the rock patterns which are similar
to those in the oil rich regions of the world.
The participation of delegates from
Pakistan, of course, makes the event
important as Northern and Western areas
of India share the same geological patterns
with Pakistan which are believed to be rich
in oil. The field trips and the brainstorming
sessions examine the neoproterozoic
near Batote comprises grey phyllites, buff
quartzite, carbonaceous phyllite, pale
yellow and fragile argillite with a gypsum
band. The lithologs of exploratory
boreholes in Kaurapani and Ramban areas
drilled for the gypsum exploration have
been also prepared. The Sirban Limestone
has similarity with coeval hydrocarbon
bearing rocks in Siberia, north Africa,
Oman and other areas in the world.
Therefore, these rocks need to be studies
for their potential for hydrocarbons. The
Proterozoic dolomite-evaporite succession
of Doda and Ramban districts is equally
important as it is overlain by diamictite
bearing strata of Ramban Formation which
may turn out to be glaciogenic in origin.
HL Langeh, Rajinder Singh, JU

stromatolite dolomitic sequence in
Jammu region.
So, what brought all these geoscientists
from the world to Jammu? It was a
meeting of Geoscientists in London in
2004 which studied the particular rock
patterns and oil potential in countries
like China, Australia and Oman. Further
studies revealed that same rock pattern
existed in Jammu and Kashmir, parts of
Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan in India
which extend through the neighbouring
areas in Pakistan. Bindra Thussu, a native
of Kashmir, working as Research
Supervisor with Maghreb Petroleum
Research Group at the University College
London went thinking homewards. “I
tried to find out if there were any
organized research on the oil potential in
Jammu and Kashmir”, Thusu told
Epilogue in an exclusive interview. It was
a google search which took him to a
fellow Geologist Prof GM Bhatt at the
University of Jammu. Ideas were
Interview
Juergen Thurow
Department of Earth Sciences,University College London
You have visited J&K twice in
connection with geological research
and deliberations. What was your
impression about this state before you
visited first and now?
Before coming here there was a lot of
fear about the security situation and like
many other people I too was suspicious.
Now being twice, I hardly find any truth
about what the
world is told about
Jammu and
Kashmir. But this
o p i n i o n i s
obtained after my
personal visit
here. People still
carry fears on
their minds. There
a r e m a n y
p rofe ssors a n d
R E P O R T S
OIL HUNT
exchanged and Bhat landed in London in
April 2006 for further discussion. This
paved the way for an international
conference at Jammu which saw
participation of leading Geoscientists of
the world, more significantly seven from
Pakistan, and concluded with a resolve to
see that the oil wells are dug eventually
enriching economies and relations
between India and Pakistan. After all
Jammu and Kashmir is the epicenter.
The conference was not an easy to hold
event. The troubled land of Jammu and
Kashmir and its false image of daily
violence saw many scientists backing
out. Some of them joined the pre-
conference field trip to Rajasthan but
they returned from Delhi being wary of
the situation in J&K. Delegates from
many countries either refused to set out
for this state or had to drop their travel
plans at the last minute owing to the
negative advisories on J&K put by their
respective foreign offices.
scientists who dropped their proposed
visit as they could not be convinced
about the positive situation prevailing
here. I found a huge presence of troops
here but I see this as a positive sign as this
gives a sense of security.
Kashmir is a bone contention. Do you
think India and Pakistan can actually
look at working together on oil and gas
exploration in this place?
Of course yes. Geology is not political, it
does not believe in boundaries. Besides
delegates from other parts of world, I
have been working with the scientists
from India and Pakistan and I find them
optimistic about working together. The
way Pakistan agreed to send their people
in Jammu and Kashmir is a positive
beginning in that direction. When out
Epilogue Ø
11 ×
March 2008
It was rather more difficult in getting the
delegates from Pakistan in Jammu. The
delegates were ready to travel, Pakistan
government too was exceptionally
encouraging but there were unusual
hiccups from the India side. “I owe the
entire success of conference to the Vice
Chancellor Prof Amitabh Mattoo who
pursued the matter with External Affairs
Ministry and saw that the best
Geoscientists from the world participate
in the deliberations”, says Prof Bhat.
The International Conference on Geology
and Hydrocarbon Potential of the
Neoproterozoic-Cambrian Basins in
India, Pakistan and the Middle East was a
joint initiative of the University of
Jammu, Eni Milan, Maghreb Petroleum
Research Group and Department of Earth
Sciences, University College London.
Feedback : editor@epilogue.in
delegates sought an appointment from
the Prime Minister of India to discuss the
issue, they were granted a 5 minutes
time but they ended up on a 40 minute
meeting. This underlines the seriousness.
Even Prime Minister was confident of a
positive future development and an
enhanced cooperation in the area.
What next?
We have had deliberations and field trips
here. In November this year we will be
picking up threads in next round of such
conference in Libya. The conveners of
the conference are keeping the
governments informed of the
developments. Our role is limited to
research only and it is for the
governments to commission the
explorations.
 R E P O R T S
LAND OF RISING SONS

BUREAUCRACY

State Services Man Key Positions as

IAS Officers Prefer Central Duties
Zafar Choudhary

T
he former Jammu and Kashmir Chief
Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed may
Interview Farooq Renzu,
President of KAS officers Association
have earned brickbats from the
nationalists for proposing his model of 'self rule'
to resolve Kashmir issue but his successor Ghulam Most of the key administrative responsibilities are
Nabi Azad has quietly implemented a part of it. now in the hands of officers from state services.
Whether it helps in resolution of Kashmir issue or How do you look at this emerging scenario?
strengthens the local electoral constituency is a
separate question but a part of self rule proposal See, officers from the Kashmir Administrative
is now working in Jammu and Kashmir. Complete Services are the real people who contributed to the
localization of the bureaucracy is one of the development and peace in Jammu and Kashmir. They
major proposals in the PDP version of self rule –a come from the local social fabric and have long
model tossed by General Pervez Musharraf. standing stakes in the society. Their coming to the
Though the Peoples Democratic Party is yet to forefront of things is a compliment to their dedication
make public the document which it claims has the and sincerity to the system.
well defined measures for lasting solution to
Kashmir imbroglio but in its public-opinion
What dedication and sincerity? IAS
building campaigns in late 2006, the party told
officers too are performing well.
people that officers of the All India Services will
be packed off to Delhi and only locals will man the
administration. I have always maintained that the
IAS and KAS are two faces of the
For more than a year now, the PDP has not been same coin. Therefore, they deserve
talking about its self rule proposal and is hardly equal treatment in delegation of
making any mention of the bureaucratic key responsibilities. When I talk
arrangement it had wanted to put in place. On about the dedication and sincerity
the contrary, the present Chief Minister Ghulam of the KAS officers, it is not only me
Nabi Azad, whose Congress party shares power talking about it, this is a widely
with the PDP and has his opposition to the self acknowledged fact. They have
rule well known has partly and subtly worked and continue working in
implemented Mufti's agenda without making any difficult terrain and hostile
noise about it. Under Azad's regime the sons of circumstances. These were the
soil are literally rising and shining in the officers who served as true
bureaucratic landscape of Jammu and Kashmir. representatives of people when
At present, 18 of the total 22 Deputy there was no elected government in the state. An
Commissioners –a key post and the main interface advisor to the then Governor (somewhere between
between people and the government –are natives 1990-1996) talked to the Government of India and
of Jammu and Kashmir. One of them is a direct IAS informed the Prime Minister about the role played by
recruits while the majority is drawn from the KAS officers when Jammu and Kashmir was passing
state services, popularly known as Kashmir
through most difficult circumstances.
Administrative Services (KAS). Interestingly, a
look at the top heavy power structure at the civil
secretariat would reveal that the entire decision Being an elected representatives of the KAS

Epilogue Ø
12 ×
March 2008

officers, are you satisfied with the
responsibilities delegated to the
officers of state services.
Though I place on record on behalf of all
KAS officers our deep appreciations for
the present Chief Minister Mr Ghulam
Nabi Azad for realizing the importance of
state services but this just the beginning
and we need to go a long way. There
should be promotion avenues parallel to
the IAS officers and the KAS officers
should get the opportunity of reaching to
the positions of Principal Secretaries and
Financial Commissioners. We are not
asking this just on the basis that Jammu
and Kashmir is special category state;
many other states in the country like
Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal have a
similar system.
M o r e o v e r, a t p r e s e n t d u a l
superannuation age structure is existing
in J&K state. The officers of one premier
service retire at the age of 60 while as
officers and employees of other cadres
retire at the age of 58. The association
believes that uniform retirement age
structure will be made applicable for all
services functioning in the state
including KPS
Isn't it like cutting through the space of
IAS officers?
Not at all. I must tell you, the IAS officers
are pleading our cause more vigorously.
Though it is natural to expect such support
from the officers like Mr BR Kundal, the
Chief Secretary and Mr Khurshid Ahmed
Ganai, the Principal Secretary GAD being
the local IAS officers, the officers from
outside like Mr BB Vyas, the Commissioner
Secretary Finance are supporting our
cause pro-actively.
(RENZU is presently
Deputy Commissioner, Badgam)
R E P O R T S
LAND OF RISING SONS
'We have brought local officers on center
stage of decision making system'
On Record:
GHULAM NABI AZAD
Chief Minister, J&K
Our government has brought local officers on the centre
stage of policy and decision making and for the first time
in the history of the State local officers are holding 90
percent key positions in the administration. The
argument that local officers in J&K are not on top
administrative positions does not hold good anymore.
This casts a greater responsibility on them to perform
and come up to the expectations of the people.
My government has involved in major number local officers in decision making
process, assigning them key positions. The topmost position of Chief Secretary and
Director General of Police are both held by local officers today. for the first time, 19
out of 22 District Development Commissioners in the State belong to J&K itself.
Earlier, the case was reverse. Similarly, hardly a secretary to government level local
officer was seen in the civil secretariat but today there were as many as 27 local IAS
and KAS officers holding the position of Financial Commissioner, Principal Secretary
and Secretary to Government. Recently as many as six important departments like
education, tourism, housing and urban development and health were given under
the independent charge of local officers. In the police department also local
officers hold important positions today.
With this scenario obtaining in the civil and police administration, the local officers
have to prove their mettle and deliver. there is no room now for the blame for
inefficiency being put at the door of the government for ignoring local officers in the
decision making process. My government has changed the tradition and given local
officers the responsibilities of development and progress of the State. They have to
prove worthy of the trust the government has reposed in them. Restructuring of the
KAS cadre recently was aimed at bringing local officers on the centre stage of policy
and decision making in the State. The officers should emulate missionaries in the
service to people although they do not get perks and promotions and often have to
work in climatically and politically hostile environment, their dedication to their
mission could be a guiding force for the government employees who were paid for
their job. The government officials should consider themselves fortunate that they
had been chosen to serve the people and receive remuneration for the services as
well. I have already issued instructions to the Chief Secretary and the General
Administration Department to stop posting of non-cadre officers on cadre posts. The
issue of common seniority for KAS is also under consideration of the government. the
Government would constitute a Cabinet Sub- Committee to look into the demands of
the Association and also come up within six months with a concrete proposal on
tacking the problem of unemployment.
(Excerpts from CM's speech at a convention of KAS officers in Srinagar on July 30,
2007)
Epilogue Ø
13 ×
March 2008

making authority is consolidated in the
hands of local bureaucrats whether they
are from IAS or KAS. Out of the 24 key
departments, the administrative
secretaries of 19 are from Jammu and
Kashmir.
If one major thing for which National
Conference regime always earned the
peoples' wrath is that Dr Farooq
Abdullah made his bureaucracy most
powerful with all significant and
decision making positions manned by
the IAS officers drawn from several
other states. Officers from Jammu and
Kashmir, even if they belonged to the
IAS, were kept for the fringe operations
while those from Bihar and Haryana
called the shots. Farooq's cabinet
ministers hardly minced any words in
saying that they often found it difficult
seeking an audience with the Chief
Secretary Ashok Jaitley and CM's
Principal Secretary BR Singh. The then
Chief Secretary popularly known as Tony
would keep the legislators waiting for
even months to finally grant them an
interview.
When Mufti Mohammad Sayeed took
over as Chief Minister in 2002 he
probably had read the pulse carefully.
Mufti's regime saw the return of the post
of Chief Secretary to a native officer
after a decade long staggering gap.
Initially seen as a leader of Kashmir
centric vision, Mufti picked up Sudhir
Singh Bloeria –a native of Kathua district
in Jammu region –as his Chief Secretary.
A Kashmiri KAS officer Nayeem Akhter,
completely sidelined during NC regime,
was elevated as Secretary in Chief
Minister's Office and another Kashmiri
IAS officer Iqbal Khandey took over as
Principal Secretary to CM.
At present BR Kundal –a native of Jammu
is the Chief Secretary. He superceded at
least two seniors to reach the top
bureaucratic seat in the civil
secretariat. Kundal had taken over from
C Phunsog -an IAS officer from Ladakh
R E P O R T S
LAND OF RISING SONS
who retired in October 2007.
Interestingly, Phunsog had earlier
replaced Vijay Bakaya –a Kashmiri –who
had taken over from Sudhir Singh
Bloeria. This is how the seat of the top
bureaucrat has been shifting from one
region to another in a regionally
polarized state after the ouster of
National Conference government
headed by Dr Farooq Abdullah. It is
noteworthy that when Phunsog was
appointed Chief Secretary in 2006, he
superseded at least two of his seniors.
However, one of them –Amit Kushari of
West Bengal –sought premature
retirement while the other one –B R Singh
of Haryana –went to the media with his
dissent and later proceeded on a protest
leave and simultaneously applied for
premature retirement.
Things are almost the same in Police
department. Last year, the state
cabinet, in a surprise decision,
appointed Kuldeep Khoda –a Kashmiri IPS
officer –as Director General of the state
Police. Khoda's appointment as DGP yet
again had two interesting angles. First,
that there was no other post higher than
the rank of DGP where the then
incumbent Gopal Sharma –a native of
Rajasthan –could have been posted.
Therefore, for a while he was adjusted as
Security Advisor to the Chief Minister till
Union Home Ministry arranged a suitable
posting for him. Second, as was the case
with the appointment of Chief Secretary
in 2006, Khoda too superseded at least
one senior officer to take over as DGP.
Therefore, Khoda's senior PS Gill –a
Punjabi –was appointed as Transport
Commissioner in the rank and status of
DGP.
While Mufti had localized the Chief
Minister's Secretariat and the top
bureaucratic position of Chief Secretary,
his predecessor Azad has gone down to
level of districts to see that all key
positions are manned by the local
officers. In some cases the merit has
been overlooked but the Chief Minister
has been selling his scheme hard which is
Epilogue Ø
14 ×
March 2008
finding takers in the public. Not only that
Azad has localized the bureaucracy, he has
taken care that the local communities,
regions and sub regions too get due
representation in the decision making
process. Though officers from the
Scheduled Castes have often found
chances to serve at important positions in
administration but it is perhaps first time
in the history that a member from the
marginal tribe of Gujjars too has become a
Deputy Commissioner. “Problems in
Jammu and Kashmir are peculiar and
officer from Bihar or Maharashtra can
neither understand these problems nor
have any stakes in the local issues”, says
Abdul Aziz Zargar a veteran politician and
Minister for Agriculture. “We need to have
local officers at forefront of things and
that is the real healing touch to the
bruised people”, he adds.
The two coalition partners –Congress and
the Peoples Democratic Party –despite
being shareholders in power have been
fighting on a variety of issues. However,
there appears a complete consensus
between the two on strengthening the KAS
and giving local officers key
responsibilities. With the political mood in
favour of the locals, the KAS officers too
have organized themselves to press for
more. They have got their cadre
restructured and are now asking for
promotion avenues parallel to the IAS
officers so as to reach the positions of
Financial Commissioners and Principal
Secretaries to the Government. The Chief
Minister recently said, “the KAS cadre has
been re-structured creating more
promotion avenues for the local officers
who would now be posted on important
administrative positions”. He said for the
first time in 60 years, there were as many
as 14 local officers independently heading
different departments in civil secretariat.
Their cadre strength was increased by
130. “Steps are also taken for their
training in prestigious institutes of the
country to change their outlook and
broaden their horizon”, says the CM.
At present barring some key departments
 R E P O R T S
LAND OF RISING SONS

like Home and Finance almost all major
departments are independently headed
by the local officers are administrative
secretaries. The departments directly
connected with the people like Health,
Education, Public Works, Revenue,
Tourism, Rural Development, Industries
etc all have local officers as
administrative secretaries. Except for
few officers like Khurshid Ahmed Ganai,
the Principal Secretary GAD and
Mohammad Iqbal Khandey, the Principal
Secretary Planning and Development,
Anil Goswami, Principal Secretary in CM
Office almost all administrative
secretaries are drawn from the state
services. Even though the political
leadership claims that the officers from
state services have been given
assignments as measure of local
empowerment but there is another
reason also which gives the local officers
a chance to serve at top positions. As
many as 20 out of the total 55 directly
recruited IAS officers (including those
from home state) are currently on
central deputation. Against the
sanctioned strength of 110, there are at
present 96 IAS officers in Jammu and
Kashmir (including two probationers).
Out of these 96 officers, 43 are by
promotion from the state services and
55 are through direct recruitment. 40 of
the directly recruited IAS officers of J&K
cadre are drawn from different states
while only 15 are native of this state.
The ratio of IAS officers to the local
officers is already low in Jammu and
Kashmir. Under a special dispensation,
the ratio of civil services here is
maintained on the basis of 50:50 instead
of 67:33 in other states –which means 67
per cent from the All India Services and
33 per cent from the local services.
Before this dispensation comes to end
this year, the Chief Minister is reported
to have already written to the Prime
Minister for further extension in 50:50
patterns. “Chief Minister has written to
Prime Minister to extend the special
dispensation of 50 percent quota to the
All India Services in the state for a
further period of five years”, says former
Chief Secretary C Phunsog. This, he said,
would provide an opportunity for a large
number of officers of the state service to
get inducted into the IAS.
It may be mentioned here that
administration in Jammu and Kashmir
continued to be manned by the local
officers till 1958 when All India Services
were first extended to this state by an
amendment in Article 312 of the
Constitution of India.
The Jammu and Kashmir Administrative
Service was initially constituted in 1962
and re-structured in 1965 then in 1976 and
1983 to broad base its cadre base by
adding 11 feeding services which were
subsequently increased to 18 from the
four services in 1965. There had not been
any career review of the KAS since 1997.
The KAS Officers Association took up the
issue with the government and following
this, the establishment-cum-selection
committee considered proposals of the
GAD on career review and with the
approval of Chief Minister it placed
recommendations before the state
cabinet which approved a much more
expanded cadre.
The duty posts in the cadre of the service
have been enhanced from 318 to 406, the
number of super time scale from 5 to 10,
special scale from 34 to 72 and selection
scale from 103 to 120. This is expected to
accelerate the progression of the
members of the service on a scale never
witnessed before.
Feedback : zafar.choudhary@epilogue.in

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FORM – IV
(See Rule 8)
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2. Periodicity of its publication Monthly
3. Printer’s Name Zafar Choudhary
Whether Citizen of India Yes
Address Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu
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Whether Citizen of Idnia Yes
Address Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu
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Whether Citizen of India Yes
Address Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu
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Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu
I, Zafar Choudhary, hereby declare that the particulars given above are true to the best of my knowledge and belief.

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Date : March 1, 2008 Zafar Choudhary
Publisher

Epilogue Ø
15 ×
March 2008
 I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION

Pakistan Elections 2008

What was the outcome of 2008 elections ?
Who were the leading political parties ?
How did they perform in the National Assembly and the
Provincial Assemblies?
What were the results of 2002 elections and who were the
leading political parties then ?
How has the situation changed and what are the major lessons in
2008 elections?

A group of keen Pakistan watchers

D SUBA CHANDRAN,
REKHA CHAKRAVARTHI &
DEVYANI SRIVASTVA
bring the exclusive reportage and indepth analysis
on return of democracy in our neighbourhood

T
his is not the first election that Pakistan has voted and certainly this is unlikely to be
the last one. But, it is certainly an important one. If there is a hall of fame for Pakistan
elections, this would certainly go as the third most important in Pakistan's electoral
history after the elections of 1970 and 1988.

Why this election is important and be considered the third important one? Like the two
previous important elections of 1970 and 1988, this election also follows after a long direct
and indirect military rule. It is pertinent to underline that it was in 1970, for the first time
people of Pakistan walked to an electoral booth to directly choose their representatives.
Though the country faced a military defeat and a violent break up immediately after the
elections, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto became the undisputed leader and the first elected Prime
Minister of Pakistan. And his Pakistan's Peoples Party, the first mass based party. Though the
Muslim League existed, by 1970s, it was a pale shadow of what Jinnah had founded. Had
Jinnah been alive, it is highly unlikely whether he could have recognized the Muslim League in
the 1970s or even contested as a part of it.

Though the first elected assembly lasted its full term, the second elections only resulted in
instability, ultimately resulting in the military taking over. Zia ul Haq, Bhuto's hand picked
Chief of Army Staff, not only over threw his mentor and put him in jail, but also made sure he
never came back alive. Bhutto was hanged; along with him died the first wave of democracy in
Pakistan.

Epilogue Ø
16 ×
March 2008

What followed was a decade,
that sowed the seeds of all of
Pakistan's ills that it is facing
t o d a y. Z i a u l H a q
systematically attempted to
wipe off the mainstream
secular democratic parties,
especially the PPP. The
growth of religious parties,
sectarian violence, use of
jihad as foreign policy in
Afghanistan, a highly secretive
nuclear weapons programme
and the deliberate abuse of the
Durand Line – the bad list of
Pakistan's contemporary
troubles were systematically
sowed and deliberately
grown.
When the second wave of
democracy started in
Pakistan, the trouble in
Afghanistan was far from over.
Zia was killed in air crash and
the military was in a dilemma
whether to go ahead with the
elections or proceed with
controlling the polity. Benazir
Bhutto returned to Pakistan
and led the PPP to an
outstanding victory in 1988.
The elections of 1988 were the
second most important, for it
witnessed the return of
democracy and also the return
of PPP.
2008 elections are the third
most important in Pakistan's
electoral history precisely for
the above mentioned reasons.
Nearly after a decade of direct
and indirect military rule, this
election has just witnessed
the return of democracy and
also the return of the PPP.
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
Elections: Free and Fair?
H
ow free and fair the elections were? voters for the 2008 elections would be 77
Many expected that these elections million. However, according to this Election
would be rigged, given the electoral Commission's new list, there are only 52
history under Pervez Mushrraf. A Presidential million voters. Where did the 25 million
election and a referendum, general elections voters go?
of 2002 and local bodies election of 2005 – all
of them were highly rigged in different ways. Besides, Musharraf and the PML-Q used the
local government functionaries effectively to
The electoral process running up to 18 organize support for certain candidates. The
February elections – were dotted with Nazims owe their allegiance to Musharraf to
controversies and confusions. It all started PML-Q, for they have been created in the
with the sacking of Iftikhar Chaudhary, the aftermath of 2005 local elections. They were
Chief Justice of Pakistan in March 2007. It was used in siphoning off the development funds
a clear blow to the independent nature of to favor a particular candidate. Besides, the
political parties accused the
Pakistan's judiciary and was
Nazims for playing a
aimed at keeping it weak
decisive role in choosing the
and under control. Clearly,
the move to gag the
It was in this backdrop the re tu rn i n g a n d p olli n g
judiciary was a strategy, elections were held on officers and also for
carefully crafted to steal instrumental in picking up
the elections. With an
February 18. However, police officials in their
respective constituencies.
independent and impartial despite accusations of rigging
Iftikhar Chaudhary leading
the Supreme Court, it was and voters not being allowed It was in this backdrop the
essential to demolish any to vote, the elections were free elections were held on
future judicial February 18. However,
interventions. If the of any large-scale despite accusations of
sacking of Chaudhary in manipulations. Thus, the rigging and voters not being
March 2007 was a allowed to vote, the
beginning, Musharraf's polling, certainly was elections were free of any
arbitrary removal of 60 relatively free and fair. large-scale manipulations.
judges from the Supreme Thus, the polling, certainly
and High Courts, was aimed was relatively free and fair.
at keeping the judiciary Even, in terms of violence,
weak. there were occasional
events, that are generally assiocaited with
The performance of the Election Commission the electoral culture in South Asia.
of Pakistan (ECP) during the pre-election
period was hardly encouraging. It was far Given the fact that Benazir Bhutto, leader of
from being independent and impartial. The the PPP was assassinated in an electoral rally
ECP, though consisted of five members and and there were at least two suicide bombs
during the campaign by other parties as well,
the Chief Election Commissioner, it was
severely handicapped. In terms of the one expected large scale violence on 18
numbers, only half of the members were February. Perhaps, in one of those rare
nominated. According to the 2002 elections, occasions, Musharraf did deliver, what he had
the number of eligible voters was 72 million; promised earlier. By and large, 18 February
taking into account the population growth, it was peaceful and there were no large scale
was expected that the number of eligible violence.
Epilogue Ø
17 ×
March 2008
 I N F O C U S
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National and Provincial Assemblies : An Overview

P akistan is a federation of four Muslims. Members of the National minorities' seats are distributed among
provinces, a capital territory and Assembly and Provincial Assemblies are the parties in proportion to the overall
federally administered tribal directly elected by voting in a seats secured by them. (See Table 1, 2 &
areas. At the national level, Pakistan constituency. Women and minorities' 3) The Election Commission of Pakistan
elects a bicameral legislature – the
Parliament of Pakistan – which comprises Table 1: Number of Seats for Senate
of a President and two Houses – a 100- Province/Area General Seats Seats reserved for Total
Women Technocrats
member Senate and a 342-member
and Ulema
National Assembly whose members are Federal Capital 2 1 1 4
chosen by elected provincial legislators.
Punjab 14 4 4 22
Sindh 14 4 4 22
The Prime Minister of Pakistan is elected
NWFP 14 4 4 22
by the National Assembly, while the
FATA 8 - - 8
President is elected by the Electoral
College of Pakistan consisting of both Balochistan 14 4 4 22
houses of Parliament together with the Total 66 17 17 100
provincial assemblies. The National (Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#Senate)
Assembly draws its seats from Islamabad
– the federal capital, Balochistan, NWFP,
Table 2: Number of Seats for National Assembly
Punjab, Sindh, and the Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Province/Area General Seats reserved for Total
Seats
Women Non
Figure 1: Provinces of Pakistan Muslims
Federal Capital 2 - 2
Punjab 148 35 183
Sindh 61 14 75
NWFP 35 8 10 43
FATA 12 - 12
Balochistan 14 3 17
Total 272 60 10 332+10=342
(Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#National)

Table 3: Number of Seats for Provincial Assemblies

Province General Seats Seats reserved for Total
(Map modified. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Image:Pakistan_New_Provinces.gif
Women Non Muslims
Punjab 297 66 8 371
The Senate consists of 100 members Sindh 130 29 9 168
including 17 seats reserved for women & 17
NWFP 99 22 3 124
seats reserved for technocrats and Ulema.
Balochistan 51 11 3 65
The National Assembly consists of 342 Total 577 128 23 728
seats from Islamabad (Federal Capital), (Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#Provincial)
Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, the Federally
Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) and seats in the National Assembly are (ECP) is responsible for conducting free
Balochistan including 60 seats reserved calculated in accordance with the and fair elections. The ECP is constituted
for women and 10 seats for non-Muslims. formula given in the Constitution. The by the President and consists of five
The Provincial Assemblies consists of 728 parties are given women seats in members – a retired Supreme Court
seats including 128 seats reserved for proportion to the general seats won in justice and a serving high court judge
women and 23 seats reserved for non- each province. The 10 reserved from each province.

Epilogue Ø
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March 2008
 I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION

2002 Elections: An Overview

I n the 2002 elections, the PML-Q gained

maximum number of seats and formed the
government with allies including the MQM
and MMA. Like the 2008 elections, no party won 33.82%
National Assembly Party Position
No. of Seats (incl reserved seats) % of Seats Won

a majority even in the 2002 elections. The PML-

118
Q bagged 76 seats, the PPP won 62, MMA 45,
PML-N 14, and independents won 26. The PML-Q 23.16%
secured 17 reserved seats for women in the 80 16.54%
National Assembly and 26 seats in the Punjab
59
Assembly, PPP won 14 and 16 seats while the
PML-N got 3 and 9 seats. Elections in 2002 were 5.15% 4.78%
1.47%
considered largely rigged with Musharraf and 18 17
the PML-Q resorting to unfair tactics thereby 5
reducing the chances of PPP and PML-N in
gaining a majority. PML-Q PPP MMA PML-N MQM PLM-F

Who Voted for Whom?

T he lower house of Pakistan's Parliament has 342 seats,
out of which 272 were directly elected by the people
from four provinces, Islamabad and FATA. On 18
February, elections were held in 268 constituencies out of the
total 272; in those four provinces elections have been
postponed due to excessive violence and the death of
candidates. Of these two belong to the tribal areas and the
other two were Larkana and Lahore-II. While the large-scale
violence in FATA region has resulted in the postponement in the
first two, assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the killing of a
PML-N candidate have resulted in postponing the elections in
Larkana and Lahore-II respectively.
witnessed the exit of the religious parties' alliance – the
Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) from 59 seats in the NA to a
mere 7 seats and this, in fact, has been the greatest
achievement of the 2008 elections. Maulana Fazlur Rahman,
leader of the Jamait-e-Ulema-e-Islami lost the one seat he was
contesting; the defeat of MMA has resulted in the party losing
control in NWFP and Balochistan provincial assemblies.
The Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) won 19 general seats,
all from Sindh, and the Awami National Party won 10 seats in
NWFP thereby promising a much needed peace and stability that
were denied to the province during the reign on the MMA.

Out of these 268 constituencies, the National Assembly Party Position

Pakistan People's Party (PPP) emerged as
No. of Seats (incl reserved seats) % of Seats W on
the single largest party winning 88 seats 33.20%
from all the four provinces. The Pakistan 113
25.30%
Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has emerged
84 15.50%
as the second largest party in the NA with 67
seats to its credit. The King's Party (PML-Q), 55 9.70%
7.20%
that gained the maximum numbers of seats 3.80%
2.30% 1.50% 33
in the 2002 elections, suffered a crushing 25
14
defeat with almost the entire previous 7 5
cabinet – including 22 former ministers –
facing humiliating losses.
P

F
A
N

s
Q

M
PP

er
L-
N

M
L-

L-

A
P

th
M
M
M

M
M

O
P

d/

The PML-Q managed to win just 41 seats in

In

the National Assembly. The elections also

Epilogue Ø
19 ×
March 2008
 I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION

The polls had predicted 12 per cent vote other hand PML-N scored massive election has had a pro-democratic
for the PML-Q, 22 per cent for the PML-N, victories in most of Punjab. leaning, with the PPP and the PML-N
and 50 per cent for the PPP. While the performing better than they did in the
PPP's vote bank looks impressive, it is far At the outset, looking at the trends from 2002 elections. However, a closer
from what was predicted and on the 2002 and 2008, it is clear that the present analysis reveals that the 2008 elections
have been more anti-Musharraf and anti-
M ajor Political Parties - No. of Seats Won MMA than reflecting a complete
democratic stance with no single party
Year 02 Year 08
securing a majority.
113 118
The biggest triumph of the 2008 elections
has been the fall of religious extremists
80 84
(MMA) from 59 seats in 2002 to a skimpy 7
seats in 2008. The Taliban movement in
55 59 Pakistan has been vetoed by the people;
consequently does this mean the end of
25 Islamism in Pakistan? The Awami National
18
17 14 Party, on the other hand, has allied with
7
the PPP to form a government in the
much troubled NWFP. Owing to its secular
PPP PML-N PML-Q MQM MMA ANP stance the ANP appears, at least for now,
to be the biggest winner this election.

Major Political Parties - % of Seats Won PPP: Back in Action

Year 02 Year 08

A
fter the assassination of Benazir
33.20% 33.82% Bhutto, the PPP was predicted to
win 50 per cent of the seats
25.30% considering the pro-Benazir sympathy
23.16%
wave that the party had intended to cash
16.54% on. Though the results did not place the
15.50%
PPP as an undisputed political party,
2.30% February 18 election has certainly
7.20%
5.15% revived its clout in all the four provinces.
4.78% 3.80%
1.13% Consider the following figures.

PPP PML-N PML-Q MQM MMA ANP The PPP has won 45 seats in Punjab. It is
certainly a record, considering its
performance in Punjab during the last
three or four elections. In 1997 and 2002
Party Total Votes Secured elections, the PPP performed very badly
2002 2008 in Punjab. In fact, many considered that
PPP 7,277,794 10,588,168 the PPP was totally wiped off from
Punjab, given its declining electoral
PML-N 3,314,603 6,759,711
strength. February 18, has certainly
PML-Q 7,567,753 7,901,492 changed the trend for the PPP. It has got
MQM 926,116 2,571,184 PPP back into business in Punjab.
MMA 3,329,325 751,087
Besides winning 45 seats for the National
ANP 324,649 699,517
Assembly from Punjab, it has also won 77

Epilogue Ø
20 ×
March 2008
 I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION

seats for the Punjab provincial Assembly.
In fact, the PPP is the second largest
party today in the Punjab provincial
assembly after the PML-N. Nawaz's PML-N
has won 102 seats for the Punjab
provincial assembly, followed by PPP's
64. PML-Q, which ruled Punjab could
secure only 64 seats for the provincial
assembly.
In Sindh, the PPP has emerged as the
undisputed leader in rural areas. Though
the PPP has failed to make a dent in
urban Sindh, especially Karachi, the
party has managed to secure 29 seats for
the National Assembly, out of the total 61
seats. If the elections are held for
Larkana, one is sure it would increase the
tally to 30. Thus winning half of the total
seats allocated for the National Assembly
from Sindh.
Besides, the PPP has also won 66 seats for
the Sindh Provincial Assembly, out of the
total 125 seats. The PPP can form a
government on its own Sindh. It has
almost bulldozed the PML-Q from Sindh.
The former rulers could manage only 5
seats for the National Assembly and 10
for the Sindh provincial assembly.
In NWFP, PPP's performance is certainly
laudatory, given the declining support in
the recent elections and also the fact
Sherpao faction has made a considerable
dent in its electoral strength.
In 2008, out of the total 35 seats for the
National Assembly from the NWFP, the
PPP has secured ten seats, equaling the
record of the Awami National Party
(ANP), which has also secured the same
number of seats. More importantly, the
PPP has emerged the second largest
party in the NWFP provincial assembly
with 18 seats. The ANP has secured
maximum seats – 29 for the provincial
assembly.
In Balochistan, the largest province of
Pakistan, but with smallest number of
seats for the National Assembly, the PPP
has emerged the most successful. Of the
total 14 seats reserved for the National
Assembly, the PPP has won four seats,
while the PML-Q has won only three and
the MMA two. Besides, the PPP has also
won seven seats for the Balochistan
provincial assembly.
Certainly, with 88 seats from all over
Pakistan, the resurgence of the PPP is the
most successful story of February 2008
elections.

PML-N: The Brothers Strike Back MMA: Fall of the Religious Elements

F
or the Sharif brothers, it was as if the history was repeating

in Punjab almost after ten years. In 1997, the Sharif brothers
led the PML-N to an unprecedented victory in the electoral
history of Pakistan. Consider the 1997 figures: The PML-N secured
137 seats for the National Assembly from all the four provinces. In
Punjab it won almost 60 percent of the total votes polled resulting
in becoming the undisputed party at the national level, relegating
the PPP to a regional force in Sindh.
In 2002, however, the situation totally changed for the Sharif
brothers. They were exiled and they saw their party being
manipulated and split by Pervez Musharraf, then the Chief of Army
Staff and the President of Pakistan. The result was even more
spectacular. In 2002 elections, the Sharif brothers lost Punjab and
also lost their own party! The PML-N could secure only 19 seats for
the National Assembly. The PML-N, undoubtedly, was resurrected
back into Pakistan politics winning almost 4 times more than it did
in 2002. Fading back into pavilion with just 18 seats in 2002,
Nawaz Sharif's PML-N secured 84 seats in total. More importantly,
the PML-N has won 102 seats for the Punjab provincial assembly
and thus being in an ideal position to form the next government
there. Thus the non-performance of the PML-N in Sindh and
Balochistan, has been sort of compensated with its better
performance in Punjab. Both in Sindh and Balochistan, the PML-N
had failed to win even a single seat for the National Assembly,
though it has won four seats from the NWFP.
I
f PPP and PML-N are two great success stories of 2008
election, the MMA along with the PML-Q are the two great
failures. A non-entity electorally, but with significant
street power, the rise of religious political parties under the
banner of Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal was spectacular in 2002
elections. For the very first time in the electoral history of
Pakistan, the religious parties were able to secure 16 percent
of the total votes polled for the National Assembly. In terms of
seats, it was translated into 59 seats in the Parliament, thus
becoming the opposition party, again for the first time in the
history of Pakistan. What is even more spectacular after the
2002 elections, was the fact the religious parties were able to
form governments in two provinces – NWFP, on their own and in
Balochistan along with the PML-Q.
The fall of MMA, in 2008 elections was as spectacular as its rise
after in 2002. The fall of the MMA, in fact started much before
the 2008 elections. The decline had in fact started when the
two major components of the MMA – Jamaat-e-Islami led by
Qazi Hussain Ahmed and the JUI led by Fazlur Rehman,
developed differences amongst them. Ironically, the reason
was Pervez Musharraf. Qazi Husaain Ahmed wanted to
withdraw the support of the MMA in the National Assembly,
when Musharraf failed to give up his uniform in 2006. Qazi
wanted the MMA to resign both from the National Assembly and

Epilogue Ø
21 ×
March 2008

also from the NWFP, whereas Fazlur
Rehman was against that idea.
After the sacking of Iftikhar Chaudhary
and the beginning of the entire judicial
crisis in Pakistan, Qazi wanted to boycott
the elections, unless the judiciary was
restored to its pre-March 2007 position.
When JUI-F decided to go ahead with
taking part in elections, the MMA of 2002
was almost dead. The February 18
elections only finalized the formalities.
Fazlur Rehman seriously mis-calculated
the popular mood in the NWFP. Give the
fact the pashtun community was
extremely angry with the ongoing War
against Terrorism and upset with Pervez
Musharraf, he expected his party had a
good chance to repeat the 2002
performance, at least in the NWFP.
Besides the above two factors, he was
also aware the frontier province was
brimming with anti-US feelings, which he
was sure would get converted into votes
for his JUI-F. Those anti-Musharraf and
anti-US feelings did convert into votes;
unfortunately not for the MMA, but for
the ANP, the secular and moderate
political party.
Consider the following numbers, for it
would tell the tale of a mighty fall. From
59 seats in 2002 elections, the MMA could
only secure only five seat for the National
Assembly – three from NWFP and two from
Balochistan. Had the regional political
parties in Balochistan decided to take
part in the elections, the MMA would not
have secured those two seats also from
there. For the provincial assembly of
NWFP, the MMA could secure only 8 seats,
gaining less than one sixth of what it got
in 2002 election.
The fact that Maluana Fazlur Rahman lost
the election in Dera Ismail Khan in NWFP
itself will tell the story of how the
fortunes of the MMA have turned this
time.
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
Provincial Roundup-I
Punjab: Return of the Brothers
T
2008 Provincial Assembly Elections
he Punjab Assembly has
maximum seats in Pakistan
Ind/Others, 35
- 371, including 8 seats
reserved for non-Muslims and 66 MMA, 2
for women. Punjab province also PML-N, 104
holds the key for the National
PML-Q, 68
Assembly with 183 seats
including 35 reserved for women.
Punjab determines which
political party will form the
government in Islamabad and this PPP, 79
is mainly due to the huge
disparity in the size of
populations in the four provinces.
2002 Provincial Assembly Elections
Punjab alone accounts for 55 per
cent of seats; when compared
Ind/Others, 40 PML-N, 38
with it, Sindh accounts only for 25
per cent, while NWFP and
Balochistan account for 15 per MMA, 9
cent and 5 per cent respectively.
PPP, 62
Punjab has been the hub of power
in Pakistan; in the 1970s, the PPP
and the Muslim League were the
two dominating parties, while in PML-Q, 131
1997, the PML under Nawaz Sharif
emerged as the single dominant stellar performance in Punjab.
party in Punjab completely eclipsing
the PPP.
In 2002, the PML-Q swept through Punjab
winning 131 seats in the provincial
In 2002, the Muslim League split into assembly elections securing Musharraf's
PML-Q and PML-N and so did the pro-Establishment PML-Q a hearty win
votes in Punjab. The PML-Q won 131 whereas in 2008 Punjab voted against
seats out of the 297. The PML-Q won Establishment. The PML-Q managed to
68 general seats from Punjab win only 68 seats in the Punjab Assembly
whereas the PPP won 35 general in the current elections.
seats from Punjab and PML-N won
just 14 general seats from Punjab. PML-N, contrary to pre-poll predictions,
The trend has changed again in scored massive victories in most of
2008, with both the PPP and PML-Q Punjab enabling it to emerge as the
securing 79 and 104 assembly seats second largest party with 67 general
and 45 and 59 out of 147 seats in the seats in the National Assembly. PML-N
National Assembly. Nawaz's fierce won 104 seats in the Punjab Assembly as
anti-establishment stance and the compared to the 2002 elections wherein
PPP's party manifesto of being pro- it barely managed to win 38 seats and a
poor including the pro-Benazir total of 18 seats in the National
sympathy wave resulted in their Assembly.
Epilogue Ø
22 ×
March 2008

Sindh: The Land of Bhuttos
S indh, in terms of seat for the
National and provincial
assemblies, is the second largest
in Pakistan. It has 61 elected seats for
the National Assembly and 125 for the
provincial assembly. In 2002, the PML-
Q was able to get a sizeable number of
seats – both for the provincial and
national assemblies from Sindh.
Following the assassination of Benazir
Bhutto, PPP emerged as the single
largest party in the Sindh assembly
winning 68 seats. PPP also won the
most National Assembly seats in the
Sindh province with 29 seats. The
Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) led
by Altaf Hussain, living in exile in
London was able to repeat its 2002
performance. In fact, it is the only
party among the ruling coalition,
which has succeeded in retaining the
seats it had in 2002. Both the PML-Q
and MMA which ruled respective
provinces failed miserably both at
Balochistan : Saving PML-Q’s Grace
B alochistan proved to be the PML-
Q's saving grace in 2008 elections
wherein the party emerged as the
single largest party bagging 18 of the 51
2008 Provincial Assembly Elections
MMA 7
ANP 2
PPP 7
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
Provincial Roundup-II
2008 Provincial Assembly Elections provincial assembly and 19 seats for the
National Assembly. However, the winning
streak of the MQM is limited only to urban
Sindh, especially Karachi. In rural Sindh, it
ANP, 2
is yet to make an impact. 17 of its 19 seats
MQM, 38 for the National Assembly has been won in
2008 from Karachi. Even for the Sindh
provincial assembly, out of the total 42
PPP, 68
seats it has won, 35 are from Karachi. The
PML-Q, 10 MQM, certainly could be called the King of
Karachi. On the contrary, the PML-Q was
ousted in Sindh with just 10 seats in the
2002 Provincial Assembly Elections
provincial assembly in spite of the fact
that it ruled the province prior to the
elections in alliance with the MQM and
MQM, 32 PML-F.
PPP, 51 PPP's performance was no surprise since
the party was predicted to win with huge
MMA, 8 margins when compared to other parties
PML-Q, 11
because of the sympathy wave triggered
by Benazir's assassination. The PML-N
national and provincial levels. failed to win even a single seat while the
ANP won 2 seats. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)
The MQM secured 38 seats for the Sindh boycotted the elections.
Provincial Roundup-III
seats. The MMA which had won 12 seats in as compared to the 2 seats in 2002
the 2002 elections managed to win only 7 provincial elections. Similar to the
seats this time. The PPP made its NWFP, independents emerged as the
comeback in Balochistan winning 7 seats second largest group securing 11 seats.
2002 Provincial Assembly Elections
MMA 13
PML-Q 11
PML-Q 18
PPP 2
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March 2008
 I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION

Provincial Roundup-IV
The Torturous Roads Ahead
NWFP: Re-emergence of

F
ebruary 18 was only a beginning. Pakistan has a long
the Regional Forces way to go. Much would depend on how the leading
political parties – PPP and PML-N would respond to

I n terms of seats, NWFP is the third largest. It has 35 seats

for the National Assembly and 99 seats for the NWFP
provincial assembly.
each other and rise to the occasion. Following a period of
deadlock and hard negotiations immediately after the
elections, the PPP and the PML-N agreed to form a coalition
government at the national level. With 84 seats of the PNL-N
In 2008, the most stunning victory was for the ANP in NWFP and 113 seats of the PPP, the two parties together enjoy a
followed by the PPP, thereby ousting the MMA. The ANP won 31 substantial majority in the national assembly; the PML-Q –
seats for the provincial assembly as compared to 10 seats it which has emerged as the biggest loser in the election – is the
won in 2002 elections. The independents, with 20 seats, third largest party in the assembly, thereby constituting the
emerged as the main opposition. Amidst a rare atmosphere of camaraderie,
second largest group 2002 Provincial Assembly Elections
the two parties have resolved resolve to work towards
in the assembly. The strengthening democracy in Pakistan. They further pledged
MMA 46
PML-N retained its to not cooperate with any pro-Musharraf parties or religious
number winning 5 parties within Pakistan.
seats in both 2008
and 2002 elections The coming together of the two biggest parties of Pakistan,
while the PML-Q was PPP 8
PML-N 5 PML-Q 6
ANP 10
who were till date each other's biggest rival, is a moment of
one down with 5 historic significance. Strong mistrust has marked their
seats as compared to political relations since 1988 and both have used the military
its 6 seats in 2002. to oust the other party in power. Zardari spent eight years in
The PPP rose from 8 2008 Provincial Assembly Elections prison under Sharif facing charges of murder and corruption.
seats in 2002 to win The two parties have decided to put their old politics behind
ANP 31
17 in the current and “work together to uphold the democratic values and
assembly elections, traditions and the supremacy of the judiciary.” However, the
thereby emerging as PPP 17
two parties have to cover a large distance between them.
the second largest PML-Q 5 MMA 10 While a common goal of strengthening the democratic forces
party in the PML-N 5
within Pakistan has united the two parties, significant
province. The six- differences persist on their stand on some of the important
party religious national issues.
alliance (MMA) No. of Seats

s u f f e r e d a
humiliating defeat in the province with just 10 seats, while it
ruled the roost with 46 seats in 2002 provincial elections. It was
comeback time for both the ANP and the PPP in the province,
signifying reform and stability in the region.
The ANP regained in its former strongholds of Peshawar,
Nowshera, Charsadda and also won all the seats in Swat
and Buner district. The PPP also gained in Peshawar,
Nowshera, Upper Dir, Lower Dir and Malakand. JI's
boycotting of the elections confined the competition
between the ANP and the PPP in the province. Both the
parties secured 10 seats out of the 35 National Assembly
seats in the province. Adding more fuel to the fire was JUI-
F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman's loss to a PPP candidate in
his home constituency of Dera Ismail Khan.
Challenge 1:
Revival of Democracy
and Restoring Judiciary
The foremost issue is that of establishing and strengthening
democratic forces within Pakistan. While both the parties are
committed to fighting for democracy in Pakistan, there are
fundamental differences in the philosophical thrust of their
understanding of democracy. According to the PML-N, “true
democracy is based on a sovereign parliament, independent
judiciary and free and fair electoral process.” Accordingly, the
PML-N adopts an institutional approach towards strengthening
democracy in Pakistan – it calls upon re-establishing the
supremacy of the parliament, restoring an independent
judiciary, ensuring maximum provincial autonomy through

Epilogue Ø
24 ×
March 2008

decentralisation of administrative and
financial powers and limiting the role of
the armed forces as laid out in Pakistan's
constitution. The strategy of the party is
to work as a bulwark against the
military. The PPP on the other hand
understands democracy as a
“commitment to freedom and
fundamental rights, including freedom
from hunger and want.”
The PPP aims at creating a just and
equitable society with equal
opportunity for all its citizens. It regards
the guarantee of the fundamental and
basic rights of every citizen as its prime
objective, and therefore commits itself
to the principle of 5 E's – employment,
education, energy, environment and
equality. In political science parlance
therefore, the PML-N adopts a 'top-
down' approach to reform whereas the
PPP symbolises the 'bottoms-up'
approach. This fundamental difference
in democratic values underlines their
economic objectives as well. For the
PPP, “social policy objectives drive
economic policy whereby development
shall be measured in terms of welfare of
the people rather than in terms of
financial statistics.” The PML-N on the
What to do with Musharraf?
M oving ahead, another thorny
issue between the two parties is
the role of the army and the
future of President Musharraf. The PML-N
has been vociferous in its critique of the
role of the military in weakening
Pakistan's democratic institutions in the
past eight years including the
parliament, the judiciary and the
electoral process. Nawaz Sharif has
demanded the resignation of President
Musharraf on the ground that election
results have proven the unpopularity of
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
other hand lays greater emphasis on an
economic policy driven by the market
forces and the businessmen.
These differing values and priorities
have already begun to create ripples
between the two parties in their various
demands. The judicial crisis of Pakistan
since the launch of the lawyer's
movement in March last year and the
issue of restoring an independent
judiciary has evoked different
reactions within the two parties.
The PML-N has been very aggressive in its
demand for reinstating of the deposed
judges and has pledged to initiate a
number of reforms of the judicial system
that include among others reform in the
appointment of judges. The main
driving factor behind the PML-N's
insistence on the deposed judge's issue is
to get the President ousted by a
reinstated Supreme Court. This has put
tremendous pressure on the PPP whose
stand on the deposed judge's issue has
been at best ambiguous.
The PPP would rather seek a
constitutional solution to the crisis than
Challenge 2:
Epilogue Ø
25 ×
March 2008
postpone it indefinitely by restoring the
judges. Political analysts of Pakistan
posit that the party's attitude towards
the judiciary in general and the deposed
judges in particular is based on its
historical experience.
However, since the issue enjoys
tremendous civil society support, it is
likely that the PML-N will get its way on
this issue, especially considering that
the Supreme Court Bar Association
(SCBA) president, Mr Aitzaz Ahsan, has
given the two mainstream parties the
task of reinstating the judges before 8
March, or else face a Long March of
lawyers and civil society activists to
Islamabad against them. Notwithstanding
the lawyers euphoria, the matter is also
tricky on legal grounds for since the
lawyers consider the emergency order of 3
November as invalid for it was validated by
an invalid Supreme Court, analysts have
pointed out that the new National
Assembly is to take oath under the
constitution with a new article added
during the time of emergency. This raises
questions over the validity of the new
national assembly, and is likely to create
flutter between the parties in the days to
come.
the President, or else face an
impeachment.
The PPP on the other hand has been more
open to working with President Musharraf
especially after he abdicated the post of
chief of army staff.
The PPP wants to first form the
government and then take up the issues
in Parliament. Dismissing the idea of
impeaching the President, the Vice-
Chairman of PPP, Makhdoom Amin Fahim,
 I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION

stated that the transition of power from
the military to civilian must be gradual.
This issue could push the government in a
crisis for, apart from the demand of the
PML-N, President Musharraf himself has
not given any inclination of stepping
down. Although the election verdict has
clearly rejected his policies and his
supporters, Musharraf still holds
considerable sway in the political system
of Pakistan, be it in the army, or the
administration. Besides, there will be
tremendous pressure from the western
countries to retain Musharraf in the
scene.
However, the popular sentiment in
Pakistan is clearly against Musharraf and
the new government cannot ignore the
public opinion. Moreover, post-elections,
Musharraf has resorted to using pressure
tactic against a united front and as a
result has reinvigorated a Swiss
corruption case against Zardari that had
been stalled last year following
reconciliation between Bhutto and
Musharraf. Such tactics reveal that
Musharraf is likely to play on differences
between the two parties and create
friction between them. At the same
time, it also might have the unintended
effect of pushing the two parties closer
together. Zardari for instance might take
a stronger stance against Musharraf
following the reopening of the case.

Challenge 3 : Challenge 4

Jihad against Jihad Foreign Policy

F
oreign Policy is likely to be another area of

T h e n e x t
contentious
issue between
the two parties is
likely to be the fight
against terrorism and
militancy in Pakistan.
The PML-N has
indicated a few
measures to fight
militancy that
includes 'the use of force against the foreign and local terrorists and
strengthening of the law enforcement agencies.' In addition, it has
not ruled out 'a process of political engagement in the tribal areas in
order to win the hearts and minds of the people.'
The PPP on the other hand while has not enumerated any strategy for
fighting militancy directly, has stressed on a number of reforms
intended to fight the forces of terrorism such as madrassah reforms,
FATA reforms, police reforms, and prison reforms. Analysts have
pointed out that this election presents a unique opportunity to defeat
terrorism for the main problem with the military operations in
Pakistan's northwest and the tribal areas was that it lacked political
legitimacy. The Daily times reported that the wide disagreement
between the civilian leaders and the military on the course of action
against militancy had a deep demoralising effect on the soldiers'
morale.
The newly appointed government along with the moderate chief of
army staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani have a golden opportunity to
combine the political and military forces to fight militancy in
Pakistan.
concern. The main thrust of the PML-N's foreign
policy is strengthening of Pakistan's defences in
order to maintain peace and stability in the region, and
establishment of political and civilian control over
Pakistan's foreign policy. It is worthwhile to recall that
Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons under Sharif's rule. It
is therefore likely that the party will press for a national
security state. While the party also stresses upon
strengthening relations with other developing countries
of Asia, Africa and Latin America, there is no mention of
the United States. The US itself is not very comfortable
with the resurrection of Sharif to power mainly because
of his party's bleak record in the past. For instance, one
of the last acts of the PML-N before the military coup in
99 was to try to impose shariah law.
Moreover, he is also believed to have regular contact with
Osama bin laden and other Saudi terrorist outfits through
the 1990s. It is perhaps for this reason that Afghanistan
also does not find a mention in the party's foreign policy
objectives. The PPP on the other hand underlines good
friendly relations with Afghanistan, India, Iran and the
Peoples Republic of China as well with the USA, Canada,
European Union, Japan and the Commonwealth. Special
mention is made of Afghanistan where the PPP envisages
a policy of non-interference in Afghanistan's internal
affairs and a strict check on cross-border terrorism into
Pakistan. The main thrust of PPP's foreign policy is
strengthening of social and economic ties with Pakistan's
neighbours.

Epilogue Ø
26 ×
March 2008

Sharing Power in Provinces
I
n the NWFP, the Awami National
Party (ANP) under the leadership of
Mr Asfandyar Wali Khan emerged as
the single largest party with 31 seats out
of the 96 contested where as the PPP
secured the second highest with 17
seats. The two parties have reportedly
agreed on a power-sharing arrangement
in NWFP with the former taking the
chief minister's position and the latter
getting the offices of senior minister
and speaker of the provincial assembly.
The PML-N who has secured five seats is
also likely to be a part of the coalition.
With this verdict, the religious alliance
of Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) has
suffered a crushing defeat (partly due to
the boycott of elections by one of its
member party, the Jama'at-e-Islami and
partly due to the anti-incumbency
factor), and the people have rejected
the rule of the mullah. Upholding the
verdict of the people in favour of
Pashtun nationalism, the ANP has
promised to change the name of the
NWFP province to Pakhtoonkhwa. The
ANPs objective and priorities are similar
to that of PPP. For instance, the ANP is in
favour of a strong federal structure and
provincial autonomy and has promised
to grant equal rights to all units within
the province. It has pledged action for
t h e p r o m o t i o n o f d e m o c r a c y,
establishment of independent judiciary,
freedom of media, abolition of poverty,
protection of human rights and socio-
economic and political development.
Moreover, it also supports the
strengthening of relations with India,
China and The US. It has spoken out
strongly against Islamic militancy and
supports the war on terror. While ANP's
victory in the northwest is an important
step in the direction of a democratic,
secular Pakistan, it must not be flagged
as a validation of Pashtun nationalism. It
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
Challenge 5
is important that the newly formed
government focus more on its social and
economic agenda rather than trying to
create a sub-national identity within
thte fold of national unity.
In Balochistan, despite having been
virtually routed in three provinces, the
Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) led by
Chaudhary Shujjat Hussain has emerged
as the largest single party in the
Balochistan assembly, bagging 17 of 51
seats. The performance of the PML-Q in
Sindh can be attributed to the boycott of
elections called by the Balochistan
nationalist parties including the
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party. It is yet
not clear whether the party will form the
government on its own or enter into a
coalition with the PPP as the latter is
divided on the issue of cooperation with
a 'pro-Musharraf' party. The party's
manifesto revolves around 5 D's namely
Democracy, Development, Devolution,
Diversity and Defence.
It has remained silent on the crucial issue
of restoring of an independent judiciary
and underlines an independent foreign
policy for Pakistan where no foreign
country has the right to interfere in
Pakistan's internal affairs. The PML-Q
faces tremendous challenge in
Balochistan not only due to the strong
anti-incumbency factor against the party
but also because the party has suffered
many defections over the past few days.
Many of its elected legislators are
reportedly looking out for other parties.
The PPP on its part might be persuaded
to cooperate with the PML-Q in order to
create considerable leeway for itself vis-
à-vis the PML-N in the National Assembly.
In Sind, the PPP has won enough a
staggering 65 seats of total 130 seats,
Epilogue Ø
27 ×
March 2008
enough to form a government on its own,
but has opted to form a coalition along
with Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)
led by Altaf Hussain that won 38 seats. The
main motivating factor behind such a
coalition for the PPP is that it wants to
take the MQM along in order to ensure
peace in Sindh and create new economic
opportunities. The MQM on its part has
pledged to be a part of the democratic
process in Pakistan. Since its inception (as
a student movement in the University of
Karachi in 1978, and subsequently
converting into a political party in 1997),
the party has enjoyed large support
among the urdu-speaking population of
Sindh. This election, the party launched a
pro-poor manifesto, similar to the PPP,
targeting the downtrodden masses at the
national level with a special focus on
improving the social and economic
condition of Sindh.
The party has further called for “complete
provincial autonomy, elimination of
feudal system, religious militancy and
extremism and promised to work for
provision of jobs, reduction in poverty
through various measures, reforms in
education, health sectors and reforms in
madarasah and agriculture sector.”
Despite a similarity in the objectives with
the PPP, an alliance between them is likely
to be precarious for various reasons. For
one, some of the newly-elected legislators
of PPP in Sindh are against any
cooperation with the MQM primarily due
to the excesses it committed against the
party in the last five years. Second, the
party was part of the federal government
of Musharraf and therefore faces the anti-
Musharraf sentiment. And lastly, the MQM
has gain notoriety over the years for its
involvement in terrorist activities
especially in Karachi. These factors could
create friction in the alliance, but since
the PPP enjoys a clear majority in the

Sindh assembly, the MQM has little
leeway in the alliance.
In Punjab, Pakistan Muslim League-N
has emerged as the single largest party
in the Punjab assembly by securing 102
seats out of 292 seats with the Pakistan
People's Party and PML-Q trailing behind
with 78 and 66 seats. The PML-N has
largely gained votes due to the strong
anti-incumbency factor against the
former government, the sympathy wave
for Bhutto and pro-democratic forces,
and to some extent, due to the Jama'at-
e-Islami boycotting the election,
shifting a small percentage of the right-
of-centre vote in the urban areas to the
PML-N. The PML-Ns manifesto has
already been discussed. However, it is
important to state here that Punjab
being the most important province for
Epilogue
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I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
Pakistan, the PML-N has a powerful
bargaining card at the centre.
The 2008 elections have gone strongly in
favour of the democratic process in
Pakistan with the liberal, moderate
parties gaining a resounding victory. The
PPP in particular has performed well
across Pakistan whereas the PML-N has
resurged in Punjab. However, it must be
noted here that these two parties that
are set to forma coalition at the centre
have been out of power for almost a
decade now. Moreover, they are going to
inherit a crumbling economy with
soaring fuel and energy prices and high
rate of unemployment. Pakistan's tribal
areas are in dire need of immediate
reform to tackle the growing strength of
the Islamic extremists.
Epilogue Ø
28 ×
March 2008
Above all, the reputation of the Pakistani
state is perhaps at its lowest possible in a
long time and the new government must
at once shoulder the responsibility of
regaining its lost legitimacy. It is very
important for the two parties as well as
the regional parties to rise above their
personal vendettas and vote bank politics
and work together for a common goal. The
people of Pakistan have given the political
parties a unique opportunity to build a
strong, democratic and liberal Pakistan,
and they must not let this historical
moment slip by.
Feedback :
suba.chandran@epilogue.in
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July 2007
Policy Failure
June 2007
Looking Beyond “K”
May 2007
Peace Process
April 2007
PDP-Congress Coalition
Schism
March 2007
Baglihar
February 2007
The Promise Ahead
January 2007
Book of the year

Return of Democracy?
Madiha Tallat, in Lahore
With the results of the 18th February
general elections there has been much
celebration as the “return of
democracy” in Pakistan has been
heralded. Apparently there has been a
great upheaval, a democratic revolution
of sorts which has unseated the king's
party replacing it with fervently anti-
Musharraf leaders. The Pakistan Peoples
Party (PPP) has surfaced as a truly
national force winning a substantial
number of seats in all provinces and the
centre. This is a heartening sign for the
future of provincial cohesion which has
eluded Pakistan as of late. Other
prominent parties such as the Muslim
League-Nawaz have also managed to
make their mark with their agenda of
the restoration of the judiciary. The
response of the voters to such issue
based politics is an encouraging sign in a
country where voting has more often
been done on the basis of parochial
identities or under the influence of
political patronage. The distancing from
these trends is perhaps a result of
increasing urbanization and the
weakening of caste and clan based ties
and bodes well for an increasingly
conscientious voter base that is integral
in any truly democratic system.
Amidst all this few have questioned
whether the soon to be formed
government will actually be able to
throw off the yoke of military control
that has prevailed in Pakistani politics
for much of its history for despite these
positive indicators of democracy many
of the most basic issues that have
impeded the development of true
democracy remain constant. The
political wings of intelligence agencies
such as the ISI are as much part of the
political picture as ever, manipulating
and forging artificial alliances to serve
their own long term interests. While
once elected the commitment of the
political leaders to true meaningful
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
change is questionable as the largest
elected party the PPP is showing itself to
be all too keen to accept a government
with General Musharraf at its helm. This
undoubtedly implies an acceptance of
many of the president's hugely unpopular
policies and casts doubt on their ability
to initiate many of the much needed
changes for which they were elected and
indeed capitalized on in their election
campaign. Apparently democratic
policies of “Depoliticizing the military”
and removing military officials from
civilian positions that are being hailed
today were also propounded in the late
80's when it is widely excepted now that
the military continued its rule from
behind the scenes throughout the
“democratic” rule in the 1990's with the
bureaucracy acting as its henchman.
Thus, true political independence cannot
be attained without a major harnessing of
the militaries ever increasing economic
interests that create the impetus for its
political maneuvering and provide
incentive for the formation of a
bureaucratic-military nexus.
Moreover, despite jumping through the
familiar hoops of democratic procedures
such as elections the attainment of a
truly substantive democracy that is
responsive to the actual plight of the
people will require a long and sustained
process of electoral politics that will
create an atmosphere of political
accountability and weed out undesirable
candidates, something that has hence
far not been possible due to the
engineered removal of governments in
rapid succession by undemocratic
powers. The stage is set as anti-military
sentiment is at its peak and formidable
pressure groups exist in the shape of the
non-contesting parties and an agitated
legal community that will hold the new
government to its words. Much depends
on this government's ability to grapple
with the interests of the military and rise
Epilogue Ø
29 ×
March 2008
to the demands of the day. This will
determine whether Pakistan will finally be
wrestled away from the grips of the
military and retuned to the people. The
future of the country hangs in the balance.
Whither Kashmir?
Kashmir has been such an all pervasive
part of Pakistan's state policy that it is
often said to be a part of Pakistan's
national identity. Yet the Kashmir issue
was conspicuous for its absence in the
election campaign. This lack of attention
to Kashmir has been a hallmark of the
Musharraf government which all but cut
off ISI support to the previously heavily
bolstered freedom fighters and washed his
hands of the UN resolution on Kashmir.
This dramatic change in policy stems
perhaps from the presidents desire to be
seen as “a man of peace” but a closer look
at the issue betrays a strategic distancing
on the part of the military which
previously used Kashmir as a justification
for its high budget allocations and stake in
state policy. With the war on terror taking
center stage Kashmir is no longer needed
to serve this propagandist purpose. What
is surprising is that political leaders did
not pick on this policy change when they
so eagerly capitalized on all other acts of
the Musharraf regime. In part the
burgeoning food, electricity and internal
security crisis is to blame, which took the
lime light away from Kashmir and other
pressing foreign policy issues. At best it is
hoped that the acts of an
unrepresentative military leader are not
unquestionably and unalterably allowed
to change such a fundamental part of
Pakistani state policy.
MADIHA TALLAT, based at Lahore, is with
the Department for Law and Policy at
Lahore University of Management
Sciences.
Feedback : madiha.tallat@epilogue.in

Pakistan Elections And
India-Pakistan Peace Process
Sameer Suryakant Patil
The first 'free and fair' general elections
of Pakistan on February 18, in as many
years augur well for the India-Pakistan
peace process. Many had expected that
given the massive unpopularity of the
Musharraf regime and the ruling
Pakistan Muslim League (PML)-Qaid-e-
Azam (QA) faction (dubbed the 'King's
party), the military would try to rig the
outcome and cling on till last minute to
the power. However coming as they
were after the tragic assassination of
the former Prime Minister Benazir
Bhutto, the general elections have been
dubbed as the first step of Pakistani
polity towards democracy.
Although the contours of the new likely
dispensation in Islamabad are still to
emerge, a new found optimism is
evident with regard to the India-
Pakistan bilateral relationship. This is
because any attempt to rig the elections
on the part of the Musharraf regime or
pro-Musharraf forces would have
created further instability in Pakistan
which in turn would have been a bigger
headache for the Indian establishment.
Clearly the stability of Pakistan is a
crucial factor for India's foreign policy
and also its international standing.
In any case, doing business with Pervez
Musharraf was kind of a 'necessary evil'
for the Indian establishment. Although
the peace process did tread the forward
path during Musharraf's rule, the Indian
establishment was quite wary of dealing
with him because of the Kargil
incursions and the 2001 Agra summit
fiasco. So, seeing a change of
government in Islamabad was always
something which New Delhi was eager
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
for but hesitant of letting it out explicitly
as there was no other viable political
option in sight. Now after the general
elections, India is hoping that a stable
government based on clear majority
would be better able to make a decisive
forward movement than any other type
of the government. Moreover, even
though New Delhi will have to deal with a
newer set of people, it expects little
trouble as Indian diplomats are
politicians are aware of the working style
of both the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)
and Nawaz Sharif's PML.
The election campaign itself was marked
by suicide bombings and assassinations
of political leaders; most prominent
among them was that of former Prime
Minister Benazir Bhutto's. Her
assassination at an election rally in
Rawalpindi on 27 October 2007 was a big
blow for the democratic forces in
Pakistan. Her party, PPP was tipped to
sweep the elections which could have
propelled her to the Prime Ministership
for the third time.
The assassination cast a shadow on the
rest of the election campaign and
resulted in elections being postponed
from January 8 to February 18. It
however helped to strengthen the focus
on democratic forces. This also meant
that issues which have been the staple of
general elections in Pakistan in recent
years like corruption, Kashmir, India etc.
did not figure prominently in these
elections. After the assassination, the
Indian government as a precautionary
security measure temporarily suspended
rail (Munnabao-Khokrapar and
Samjhauta Express) and bus (Delhi-
Epilogue Ø
30 ×
March 2008
Lahore) links with Pakistan which stranded
many passengers on both the sides.
This was indeed the first time that India
was not an issue in the Pakistani general
elections. In fact one of the positive gains
of the elections this time has been the way
in which Pakistani voters and political
parties have come to appreciate the
Indian democracy and the lack of same in
Pakistan. On its part too, the Indian
government chose not to comment upon
the political developments in Pakistan so
as to avoid allegations of interference in
Pakistan's internal affairs. This studied
silence was broken except at the time of
Bhutto's assassination when Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh and other Indian
ministers expressed shock and horror over
the development and highlighted the
common threat posed by terrorism to both
the countries.
If we take a look at the current scenario it
can be observed that the bilateral peace
process is stuck in stalemate. The much
touted Joint Working Group (JWG) on
Terrorism established after the Havana
meeting between Manmohan Singh and
General Musharraf in September 2006 has
proved to be ineffective and non-
functional, despite the repeated
statements coming from New Delhi and
Islamabad that threat of terrorism looms
large upon both the countries. Many
strategic experts from India have doubted
the logic of this JWG in equating India- a
victim of terrorism for a long time and
Pakistan- a perpetrator of cross-border
terrorism and recent victim of terrorism.
All the evidences that have been brought
before the JWG by India related to the
terrorist support networks, their financial

links etc. has been refuted by Pakistan
which has frustrated the security
establishment in New Delhi. The issue of
Siachen too has been on the 'verge of
resolution' for quite some time now. Both
the countries are stuck on the point of
authenticating their positions on ground.
The only encouraging signs come from
the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs)
in operation. Just a few days before the
general elections, both the countries had
signed an agreement in Islamabad to
double up the number of weekly
passenger flights between the two
countries to facilitate people-to-people
contact, business and trade activities.
The only sore point of this increased air
link is that there are still no direct flights
connecting the two national capitals.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's
visit to Islamabad too has been pending
for quite some amount of time. Singh has
made it clear that unless there is a
notable breakthrough on any of the
contentious issues, he would not like to
waste such an important opportunity.
Pakistani officials too are insisting that
time has come now to move from the
CBMs to dispute resolutions. That in turn
has created pressure upon the diplomats
of both the countries to find a resolution
on any of the outstanding issues. Sir
Creek issue can be such an issue ripe for
resolution where a slight difference
exists between the two countries.
The agenda for the new Pakistani
government however would be primarily
domestic characterised by economic
reconstruction, social development,
strengthening the democratic forces and
most importantly fighting the terrorist
and fundamentalist groups. Just a few
months back, religious fundamentalists
in Islamabad's Lal Masjid had put up a
strong challenge to the authority of the
federal government. Hence acting
against them is a necessity for the
I N F O C U S
PAKISTAN ELECTION
Pakistani government. the government and in turn affect the
dynamics of the peace process.
In addition, Benazir Bhutto's
assassination by the suspected Al Qaeda Ultimately, whatever the outlook of the
suicide terrorists means that one of the new government in Pakistan, it is
primary agenda of the new government imperative upon both the governments in
would be to take on this terrorist group New Delhi and Islamabad to put the
supported by the religious bilateral peace process on the
fundamentalists. The group has been irreversible path of normalisation. It is
spreading its tentacles in the areas pertinent to point out here that even as
bordering Afghanistan for quite some the new government assumes reins of
time now. The likely sustained power in Islamabad, the Congress led-
government offensive would act as a United Progressive Alliance government
double-edged sword for India. If the is heading into an election year. The
onslaught on the terrorist and Indian government may give the benefit
fundamentalist forces succeeds, these of initial goodwill to the new Pakistani
forces would weaken. However that government, but that goodwill may
weakness may propel these forces to evaporate soon if Islamabad does not act
increase the frequency of attacks against fast upon outstanding issues.
India and its security forces, particularly
in Kashmir valley.
Moreover the new Pakistani Army Chief
In Jammu City
General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani does not
seem politically inclined. Yet the
influence of the army on the Pakistani
politics will not subside. This also means
Get your copy of
that the army would continue to dictate
the policy on India and there would not
be any let off in the hostilities. The
Epilogue
ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) is
expected to continue as it is in the
interest of both the countries if the LoC
remains peaceful.
delivered
One primary worry that India has with
regard to the new Pakistani government
at your
is that the history of both the PPP and
PML in working together has not been
really promising. At this stage, since it is
doorstep
in interest of both the parties to work
together, they may form an alliance as
indicated by the announcements of PML
leader Nawaz Sharif and PPP leader Asif
Ali Zardari of forming a national
government. But as the inherent
contradictions in the functioning of a
Call :
coalition government become apparent
and the political exigency disappears
they may part ways which will weaken 9419180762
Epilogue Ø
31 ×
March 2008