FUEL SYSTEMS SOLUTIONS, INC.

(FSYS-O)
Automobiles & Auto Parts / Automobiles & Auto Parts / Auto & Truck Parts
Verus Opinion
Buy
Hold
Sell
The Verus Opinion, provided by Verus Analytics Inc, is
an empirically-derived and historically back-tested stock
rating system with buy, sell, and hold opinions. To
develop a rating the quantitative system analyzes a firm's
earnings quality, balance sheet, and income statement,
conducts technical and valuation analysis and evaluates
the transactions made by the company's management
and directors (i.e. insiders).
Verus Analytics, Inc is a private independent research
firm specializing in engineering institutional rating
systems.
Analyst Recommendations
First Call Mean (FC):
Hold (8 firms)
Sell Reduce Hold Buy Strong
Buy
FC
First Call Mean (FC) is the mean recommendation of all
analysts covering the stock.
Key Information
Price (01/17/13) (USD) 14.40
52-Week High (USD) 29.41
52-Week Low (USD) 13.38
Market Cap (USD) 303M
Avg Daily Vol 137,150
Exchange NASDAQ
Annual Dividend (USD) --
Trailing PE 44.6
Forward PE 31.0
Forward PEG 6.2
LTG Forecast 5.0%
Exp Report Date 03/04/13
Annual Revenue (USD) 407M
ROE 2.0%
Inst. Ownership 76.4%
1-Mo Return 1.6%
3-Mo Return -20.6%
1-Yr Return -21.1%
1-Year Price Chart 5-Year Price Chart
Business Description
Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. (Fuel Systems) designs, manufactures and supplies
alternative fuel components and systems for use in the transportation and
industrial markets. Its components and systems control the pressure and flow of
gaseous alternative fuels, such as propane and natural gas used in internal
combustion engines. The Company also provides engineering and systems
integration services to address its individual customer requirements for product
performance, durability and physical configuration. The Company operates in two
segments: IMPCO Operations and BRC Operations. On February 10, 2012, the
Company, through its wholly owned subsidiary MTM, purchased from the Wayne
business of Dresser Italia S.r.l., the assets of its CUBOGAS compressor division,
specializing in natural gas compressors and packaging solutions. On April 18,
2011, through its wholly owned subsidiary IMPCO US, it completed the purchase
of NaturalDrive.
Page 1 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report
Updated January 18, 2013
Please refer to the last page for important disclaimer and certification information
Peer Analysis
Ticker
Verus
Opinion
Price
(12/28/12)
(USD)
Market
Cap
(USD)
Dividend
Yield
Trailing
P/E
Forward
P/E
LTG
Forecast
Annual
Revenue
(USD)
Net
Margin
1-Mo
Return
3-Mo
Return
1-Yr
Return
SMP Hold 24.18 539M 1.5% 8.4 12.2 14.0% 931M 6.1% 17.0% 35.5% 13.3%
REMY Hold 17.00 511M 2.4% -- -- -- -- -- 6.3% -2.9% 1.5%
MTOR Hold 5.03 492M -- 9.6 9.5 23.7% 4.4B 0.5% 7.2% 12.8% -19.0%
THRM Sell 13.71 412M -- 24.3 17.5 22.5% 538M 2.9% 7.5% 11.4% -5.3%
MOD Hold 8.71 409M -- 37.7 15.0 40.0% 1.5B -3.6% 12.4% 23.2% -15.0%
FSYS Hold 14.40 303M -- 44.6 31.0 5.0% 407M -0.7% 1.6% -20.6% -21.1%
PLOW Sell 13.08 290M 6.4% 22.2 24.7 10.0% 172M 6.2% -4.0% -16.4% -8.5%
XIDE Sell 3.63 289M -- 5.3 10.0 10.0% 3.0B -2.0% 13.4% 14.2% 20.6%
CVGI Hold 7.95 237M -- 3.5 13.7 -- 910M 14.9% -5.0% 5.2% -21.3%
CXDC Hold 4.43 211M -- 3.8 -- -- 549M 15.5% 15.7% 6.5% -22.1%
ZX Sell 3.76 197M 1.6% 2.5 3.2 -- 627M 7.4% 33.7% 26.2% 8.0%
Average -- -- 354M 2.9% 16.2 15.2 17.9% 1.3B 4.7% 9.6% 8.6% -6.3%
Median -- -- 303M 2.0% 9.0 13.7 14.0% 769M 4.5% 7.5% 11.4% -8.5%
Peer Group
SMP STANDARD MOTOR PRODUCTS
REMY REMY INTERNATIONAL
MTOR MERITOR INC
THRM GENTHERM
MOD MODINE MFG CO.
PLOW DOUGLAS DYNAMICS
XIDE EXIDE TECHNOLOGIES
CVGI COMMERCIAL VEHICLE
CXDC CHINA XD PLASTICS
ZX CHINA ZENIX AU
Earnings Highlights
-
FSYS's current quarter consensus estimate has decreased notably
over the past 90 days from 0.14 to -0.02, a loss of -111.4%. This
trails the average Auto & Truck Parts Industry move of -14.0%
during the same time period.
-
Over the past 90 days, the consensus price target for FSYS has
decreased notably from 21.60 to 19.20, a loss of -11.1%.
-
There have been no upward or downward broker recommendation
changes for FUEL SYSTEMS SOLNS over the past 120 days.
Analyst Recommendations
First Call Mean (FC):
Hold (8 firms)
Sell Reduce Hold Buy Strong
Buy
FC
Distribution
Analysts typically rate a stock based on a five-tier scale ranging
from 'Strong Buy' to 'Sell'. The chart below displays the number
of analysts in each tier.
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Reduce
Sell
0
3
4
1
0
Price Target
The chart below indicates where analysts predict the stock
price will be within the next 12 months, as compared to the
current price. The high, low, and mean price targets are
presented.
32
28
24
20
16
12
Current Price 12-Month Price Target
14.40
Mean
High
Low
12-Month Price Target
Mean (USD) 19.20
High (USD) 28.00
Low (USD) 13.00
Target vs.
Current
33.3%
# of Analysts 6
Mean Estimate Trend
Q
12-12
Q
03-13
Y
2012
Y
2013
Price
Target
Current (USD) -0.02 0.11 0.25 0.61 19.20
30 Days Ago (USD) -0.01 0.13 0.26 0.65 19.80
90 Days Ago (USD) 0.14 0.11 0.42 0.83 21.60
% Change - Last 90 Days -
111.4%
6.7% -40.2% -26.4% -11.1%
Next Expected Report Date: 03/04/13
Page 2 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report
Updated January 18, 2013 for FSYS
Earnings Per Share
Earnings per share (EPS) is calculated by dividing a company's earnings
by the number of shares outstanding. Analysts tend to interpret a pattern
of increasing earnings as a sign of strength and flat or falling earnings as
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-0.10
12/11 03/12 06/12 09/12 12/12 03/13
Quarterly
Actuals Estimates
0.07
-0.06
0.11
-0.03
Mean
High
Low
Estimates 12-12 03-13
FC Mean (USD) -0.02 0.11
High (USD) 0.08 0.26
Low (USD) -0.06 -0.04
# of Analysts 8 5
NA = No Actual or Estimated EPS
a sign of weakness. The charts below provide a comparison between
a company's actual and estimated EPS, including the high and low
forecasts.
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013
Annual
Actuals Estimates
2.39
0.26
Mean
High
Low
Estimates 2012 2013
FC Mean (USD) 0.25 0.61
High (USD) 0.35 1.12
Low (USD) 0.21 0.37
# of Analysts 7 8
NA = No Actual or Estimated EPS
Earnings Surprise
Investors frequently compare a company's actual earnings
to the mean expectation of professional analysts.
The difference between the two is referred to as a "positive" or "negative" surprise.
Academic research has shown that when a company reports a surprise, it is often followed
by more of the same surprise type.
Surprise Summary - Last 12 Quarters
Surprise Type # %
Positive Quarters (> 2%) 7 58.3%
Negative Quarters (< -2%) 5 41.7%
In-Line Quarters (within 2%) 0 --
Surprise Detail - Last 6 Periods
Surprise
Type
Announce
Date
Period End
Date
Actual
EPS
(USD)
Mean
EPS
(USD)
Surprise
(%)
NEGATIVE 11/08/12 09/12 -0.030 0.056 -153.6%
POSITIVE 08/08/12 06/12 0.110 0.095 15.8%
NEGATIVE 05/03/12 03/12 -0.060 0.053 -213.2%
NEGATIVE 03/08/12 12/11 0.070 0.135 -48.1%
NEGATIVE 11/09/11 09/11 -0.020 0.171 -111.7%
POSITIVE 08/09/11 06/11 0.190 0.133 42.9%
Annual Revenue
A pattern of increasing sales in conjunction
with a rising EPS may influence a buy
recommendation, while flat or falling sales
and faltering earnings may explain a sell
recommendation. A rising EPS with flat or
falling sales may result from increased cost
efficiency and margins, rather than market
expansion. This chart shows the revenue
forecast trend of all analysts and the highest
and lowest projections for the current and
next fiscal year.
480M
460M
440M
420M
400M
380M
2011 2012 2013
Actuals Estimates
418.1M
Mean
High
Low
2012 2013
Mean (USD) 385M 414M
High (USD) 390M 438M
Low (USD) 381M 387M
Forecasted
Growth
-8.0% -0.9%
# of Analysts 8 8
NA = No Actual or Estimated Revenue
Fundamental Highlights
- FUEL SYSTEMS SOLNS's days sales in inventory of 114.2 is
substantially longer than the Auto & Truck Parts Industry average of
42.3.
- FUEL SYSTEMS SOLNS's net margin (trailing 4 quarters) of -0.7% is
substantially below the Auto & Truck Parts Industry average of 3.9%.
- FUEL SYSTEMS SOLNS's debt-to-capital of 1.1% is substantially
below the Auto & Truck Parts Industry average of 21.4%.
Page 3 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report
Updated January 18, 2013 for FSYS
Fundamental Metrics
Profitability
FSYS
Industry
Avg
Revenue Growth 4.2% 5.3%
For year over year
ending 09/12
Gross Margin 21.0% 16.8%
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 09/12
Return on Equity 2.0% 15.5%
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 09/12
Net Margin -0.7% 3.9%
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 09/12
Debt FSYS
Industry
Avg
Current Ratio 3.0 1.7
For year over year
ending 09/12
Debt-to-Capital 1.1% 21.4%
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 12/11
Interest Funding -- 0.0
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending --
Interest Coverage 12.4 7.4
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 03/12
Dividend FSYS
Industry
Avg
Div. Growth Rate -- 15.6%
For year over year
ending --
Dividend Funding 0.0% 0.0%
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending 09/12
Dividend Coverage -- 6.7
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending --
Current Div. Yield -- 0.0%
For trailing 4 qtrs
ending --
The time period stated applies to the company-level data only. The Industry Average is a simple average of the most recent data from companies
whose businesses most closely match each other.
Risk Highlights
- On days when the market is up, FSYS shares tends to outperform
the S&P 500 index. However, on days when the market is down, the
shares generally decrease by more than the S&P 500 index.
- In both short-term and long-term periods, FSYS has shown average
correlation (>0.2 and <0.4) with the S&P 500 index. Thus, this stock
would provide only average levels of diversification to a portfolio
similar to the broader market.
- Over the last 90 days, FSYS's Standard Deviation has been 2.2
while that of the S&P 500 index has been 0.8.
Risk Metrics
Standard Deviation
Last 90 Days 2.21
Last 60 Months 21.61
Intra-Day Swing
Last 90 Days Avg 3.1%
Last 90 Days Largest 12.6%
Beta vs. S&P 2.14
Positive Days Only 1.57
Negative Days Only 2.46
Beta vs. Group 1.54
Positive Days Only 1.55
Negative Days Only 1.81
Correlation vs. S&P
Last 90 Days 39%
Last 60 Months 39%
Correlation vs. Group
Last 90 Days 46%
Last 60 Months 36%
Price Analysis: Risk and Reward
Last 90 Days Last 60 Months Last 10 Years
Ticker
Best
Daily
Return
Worst
Daily
Return
#
Days
Up
#
Days
Down
Largest
Intra-Day
Swing
Best
Monthly
Return
Worst
Monthly
Return
Average
January
Return
Average
February
Return
Average
March
Return
FSYS 3.5% -12.7% 30 30 12.6% 49.3% -36.0% -5.1% -5.0% -8.1%
S&P 500 2.5% -2.4% 32 28 2.9% 10.8% -16.9% -1.2% -0.1% 1.3%
Price Performance
Daily closing pricing data is used to calculate the price performance of a
stock over five periods. The performance of the S&P 500 is also
displayed as a means of comparison.
1 Week
1 Month
3 Month
YTD
1 Year
-5.9%
0.6%
1.6%
3.5%
-20.6%
1.4%
-2.1%
3.8%
-21.1%
14.5%
FSYS
S&P 500
FSYS
(USD)
S&P 500
Close Price (01/17/13) 14.40 1481
52-Week High 29.41 1481
52-Week Low 13.38 1278
- On 01/17/13, FSYS closed at 14.40, 51.0% below its 52-week high
and 7.6% above its 52-week low.
- FSYS shares are currently trading 1.0% below their 50-day moving
average of 14.54, and 13.7% below their 200-day moving average of
16.69.
- The S&P 500 is currently trading at its 52-week high of 1481.
Relative Strength Indicator
(scale 1-100, 100 being best)
Last 1 Month 52
Last 3 Months 47
Last 6 Months 47
Page 4 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report
Updated January 18, 2013 for FSYS
Valuation Multiples
Trailing
P/E
Forward
P/E
Forward
PEG
FSYS 44.6 31.0 6.2
S&P 500 23.2 17.5 1.8
Company Relative to Its 5-Yr Average 23% Premium 25% Premium >100% Premium
Company Relative to S&P 500 92% Premium 77% Premium >100% Premium
Trailing PE
Trailing P/E is calculated using the most recent
closing price (updated weekly) divided by the
sum of the four most recently reported quarterly
earnings.
Forward PE
Forward P/E is calculated using the most recent
closing price (updated weekly) divided by the
sum of the four upcoming quarterly consensus
estimates.
Forward PEG
Forward PEG is calculated by dividing the
Forward P/E by the five-year, long term
forecasted growth rate.
Insider Purchases and Sells (Most recent transactions within the past 90 days)
No transactions for FSYS in the past 90 days.
Seasonal Sells - Quarterly & Yearly
Time-series data for each quarter over the past three years allows you
to easily analyze the longer-term trend in open-market insider selling.
Q1
(USD)
Q2
(USD)
Q3
(USD)
Q4
(USD)
Full Year
(USD)
2013 0 -- -- -- 0
2012 0 0 0 0 0
2011 0 0 0 0 0
2010 0 0.07M 0 0.36M 0.42M
Seasonal Buys - Quarterly & Yearly
Time-series data for each quarter over the past three years allows you
to easily analyze the longer-term trend in open-market insider buying.
Q1
(USD)
Q2
(USD)
Q3
(USD)
Q4
(USD)
Full Year
(USD)
2013 0 -- -- -- 0
2012 8.92M 0 1.61M 1.71M 12.2M
2011 0.02M 0 0 7,181 28,745
2010 0 0 0 0 0
Institutional Holders (Updated weekly as of 01/12/13)
The top five institutional holders are presented based on the total
number of shared held.
Institution
Inst.
Type
# Shares
Held
Reported
Date
Douglas (Kevin G) Strategic 2.00M 01/30/12
Costamagna (Mariano) Strategic 1.71M 01/31/12
Costamagna (Piero Antonio) Strategic 1.58M 01/31/12
Vanguard Group, Inc. Inv Mgmt 0.85M 09/30/12
Barclays Global Investors, ... Inv Mgmt 0.83M 09/30/12
Top Executive Holders (Updated monthly as of 12/16/12)
The top five insider holders are presented based on the total number of
direct holdings. Indirect holdings are excluded. *Please see last page
for role code legend.
Insider Name * Role
# Direct
Shares
Value
(USD)
Reported
Date
Bryan, Norman L D 8,851 0.13M 05/23/12
Nall, James William D 6,030 85,928 05/23/12
Zanvercelli, Aldo D 5,938 84,617 05/18/11
Young, William J D 5,440 77,520 05/23/12
Di, Toro Marco D 4,483 63,883 05/23/12
Page 5 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report
Updated January 18, 2013 for FSYS
Distribution of Investment Ratings
As of 01/11/2013, Verus Analytics covered 4367
companies, with 19.1% rated Buy, 63.9% rated Hold, and
16.9% rated Sell. Verus Analytics does not engage in
investment banking services.
Disclaimer
All information in this report is assumed to be accurate to
the best of our ability. Past performance is not a
guarantee of future results. The information contained in
this report is not to be construed as advice and should
not be confused as any sort of advice. Thomson
Reuters, its employees, officers or affiliates, in some
instances, have long or short positions or holdings in the
securities or other related investments of companies
mentioned herein. Investors should consider this report
as only a single factor in making their investment
decision.
Role Legend
AF Affiliate
B Benef Owner
CB Chairman
CEO CEO
CFO CFO
CM Committee Member
CO COO
CT CTO
D Director
EVP Exec VP
GC Gen Counsel
O Officer
OH Other
P President
R Retired
SH Shareholder
SVP Sr VP
T Trustee
TR Treasurer
VC Vice Chairman
VP VP
Investment Methodology
Verus Analytics, Inc (Verus) is a private firm specializing
in engineering rating systems for institutional clients,
wealth managers and self-directed investors. Verus's
exhaustive list of ratings include MSN Money's
StockScouter, and numerous institutional stock rating
systems. Verus also provides proprietary ratings of
earnings quality, fundamental and valuation elements
directly to institutional clients. Verus (previously
Camelback Research Alliance, Inc and the quantitative
business unit of Gradient Analytics, Inc) was founded in
1996 by two former tenured professors, Dr. Carr Bettis
and Dr. Donn Vickrey. Today the core team consists of
financial engineers, business analysts and technology
personnel.
The Verus Opinion is an empirically-derived and
historically backtested stock rating system with buy, sell
and hold opinions. To develop a rating, the quantitative
system analyzes a firm's earnings quality, balance sheet,
and income statement, conducts technical and valuation
analysis, and evaluates the transactions made by the
company's management and directors (i.e. insiders).
Page 6 of 6
2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Thomson Reuters Company in Context Report
Updated January 18, 2013 for FSYS