Liberals lead Tories by 7.

Race closer among those most likely to vote (Liberal 37% vs. PC 35%)

Battleground Ontario 2014

Methodology: Online, n=1,000 eligible Ontario voters, May 28 to 31, 2014
Comparable margin of error: +/-3.1%
1
Key Findings and Analysis
Key Findings
The Liberals have opened up a 7-point lead over the
PCs with 37% for the OLP, 30% for the PCs and 24% for
the NDP.
Among likely voters, Liberals lead by 2 over Tories (OLP
37%, PC 35%, NDP 22%).
Liberals continue to lead among key swing groups -
including those who would consider voting Liberal or
NDP and those who would consider voting PC or
Liberal.
32% of eligible voters think the Liberals will win while
22% think the PCs will win. Four in ten (39%) are
unsure who will win the provincial election.
We also asked respondents to tell us how they would
feel if each of the main parties formed a government.
Eligible voters were more likely to be dismayed if Mr.
Hudak and the PCs formed a government (44%) while
36% would be dismayed if the Ontario Liberals formed
a government. Respondents were less likely to be
dismayed at the prospect of an NDP government led by
Ms. Horwath (31%) and were more likely to say they
wouldnt mind an NDP government.
Interest in the campaign has not changed since the
previous week of polling.
Analysis
With just under two weeks to go in the campaign, the Liberals continue to
maintain a small advantage over the PCs. Among eligible voters, the Liberals have
opened up a seven-point lead, but among those most likely to vote, the Liberals and
Tories are statistically tied with the Liberals at 37% and the Tories at 35%. The NDP
has failed to gain any momentum, despite Andrea Horwaths more aggressive
strategy last week.
While the debate could shake up the race, deeper analysis of the poll results
suggests that the Tories have little room to grow beyond its current support and
there is little enthusiasm for the NDP among the key swing groups that would
consider voting NDP.
Consider these findings: among those who would consider voting Liberal or NDP
but not PC, the Liberals lead the NDP by 20-points. More importantly, when asked
how they would react to a Liberal, PC, and NDP government, these voters were more
likely to be delighted with a Liberal win, few were delighted if the NDP won, and
almost all would be dismayed if Tim Hudak was able to form a PC government. The
state of mind among these voters bodes well for the Liberals as they seek to squeeze
the NDP by raising fears about a Hudak government.
The upside for the Tories is that their supporters appear to be more motivated
and more likely to vote, hence the small gap between them and the Liberals among
likely voters. However, it is clear that the first three weeks of the campaign have
been won by the government, not the challenging parties. The PC campaign needs to
reverse this direction in order to win - the debate carries extraordinary stakes for Mr.
Hudak now.
Interest in the campaign remains remarkably low at this stage, with only 22% of
eligible voters saying they are following the campaign closely and only 36% saying
they have given quite a bit of thought to the campaign.
The leaders debate could increase interest but all signs at this stage point to
another low turnout election in Ontario and a legislature that looks very similar to
one at dissolution.




2
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3
SUN MEANS POLITICS

Keep up with all the news from the Ontario election
campaign including new polls and analysis by watching The
Battleground with David Akin each evening at 5pm ET /
10pm MT.











And dont forget to bookmark www.OntarioPolls.ca for all
the reports and analysis from all polls conducted by Abacus
Data and Sun News during the Ontario election.




4
4
Vote Intentions
Liberals ahead by 7 Among Committed Eligible Voters
5
33%
34%
37%
33%
32%
30%
26%
25%
24%
6% 6%
7%
2% 2% 2%
May 16 May 24 May 31
OLP PC NDP Green Other
Q: If the ONTARIO election was today, which party would you vote for in your local constituency?
There has been some change in the voting intentions of
eligible voters since our previous wave of research. The
Liberals have opened up a seven-point lead over the PCs. The
Liberals are at 37% among committed voters, up three points
over last week. The Tories are down slightly to 30% while the
NDP are down by one point to 24%. The Green Party of
Ontario has the support of seven percent of committed
eligible voters
Regionally, the Liberals have a big lead in Metro Toronto (OLP
49%, PC 25%, NDP 17%) while there are close races in the
GTA, eastern Ontario, and southwestern Ontario. In the
North, the NDP has a large lead although the sample size in
that region is small.
The Liberals also lead among voters living in urban and
suburban communities while the Tories are ahead of the NDP
among those living in rural communities.
Demographically, the Liberals lead among voters aged 18 to
44, while the Tories are ahead among those aged 60 and over.
Among men, the Tories have a marginal lead over the Liberals
while among women, the Liberals have a 10-point lead over
the NDP. The Tories only have the support of 23% of
committed female voters, down from 30% in our first poll.
Among those employed full-time in the private sector, the
Liberals and Tories are tied, while the Liberals have opened up
a sizeable lead over the NDP and especially the Tories among
those employed in the public sector.

Committed Voters
6
37%
49%
35%
38%
29%
19%
30%
25%
33%
38%
31%
17%
24%
17%
24%
16%
29%
47%
7%
6%
5%
6%
9%
14%
Ontario Postal Code M (Toronto) Postal Code L
(GTA/Ham/Niagara)
Postal Code K (East) Postal Code N (SW) Postal Code P (North)
OLP PC NDP Green
37%
41%
39%
32%
36%
35%
39%
30%
20%
25%
31%
44%
38%
23%
24%
29%
26%
25%
17%
19%
29%
7%
8%
7%
9%
3%
6%
8%
Ontario 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60+ Men Women
OLP PC NDP Green
Committed Voters
7
37%
75%
11%
15%
20%
7%
39%
30%
10%
80%
8%
5%
31%
18%
24%
11%
6%
74%
16%
0%
25%
7%
3%
2%
3%
60%
8%
13%
Ontario OLP 2011 PC 2011 NDP 2011 Green 2011 Other 2011 DNV 2011
OLP PC NDP Green
37%
38%
40%
23%
35%
39% 39%
30%
26%
33%
38%
35%
17%
21%
24%
25%
20%
30%
19%
32% 33%
7%
8%
6%
6%
8%
7%
3%
Ontario Urban Suburban Rural Private sector Public sector Non-profit
OLP PC NDP Green
Vote Intention by Sector
Current Vote Intention by Vote in 2011 Ontario Election
Committed Voters
8
37%
51%
29%
15%
37%
30%
26%
49%
20%
24%
24%
16% 16%
55%
22%
7%
6%
5%
9%
10%
Ontario OLP Held PC Held NDP Held Not sure
OLP PC NDP Green
Vote Intention by Party Holding Constituency
Incumbent MPPs continue to be in a strong position. Among eligible voters living in ridings held by the OLP, the Liberals now hold a
25-point lead over the PCs among committed eligible voters, up from a 12-point advantage last week. In PC held ridings, the Tories
have a commanding lead with 49% of respondents saying they would vote PC followed by the Liberals at 29% and the NDP at 16%.
While in NDP held ridings, the NDP has 55% of committed eligible voter support, followed by the PCs at 20% and the Liberals at
15%.

Since last week, incumbent MPPs and candidates running for parties who previously held their electoral districts are in a better
position. All signs point to a legislature that looks very similar to the one at dissolution.
Vote Intention by Voter Group
9
In our analysis of the election, we also introduced seven voter groups based on respondents openness to vote for one of the three main political
parties.

Not surprising, each party gets almost 100% of the vote among its core voters. However, among the swing groups, the Liberals have
opened up a lead among those who would consider voting OLP and PC, but not NDP. Among the large OLP/NDP swing group, the
Liberals continue to lead by a wide-margin (OLP 57%, NDP 34%) while the PCs have a commanding lead among those voters who
would consider voting PC or NDP but not Liberal (PC 62%, NDP 35%). The only noticeable movement since last week has been among
those who would consider voting OLP and PC: The Liberals have gained among those group.

Among fully flexible swing voters (those who would consider voting for all three parties), the Liberals continue to have a large lead.
Almost half of these committed swing voters (45%) would vote Liberal, followed by the PCs at 20% and the NDP at 18%. The Green
Party also does best among these voters with 14% support.
45%
99%
0%
3%
52%
57%
1%
20%
1%
95%
1%
40%
1%
62%
18%
0%
1%
89%
2%
34%
35%
14%
1% 0%
6%
4%
7%
1%
Swing OLP core PC core NDP core OLP/PC swing OLP/NDP swing PC/NDP swing
OLP PC NDP Green
10
10
Likely Voters
Liberals lead Tories by 2 Among Likely Voters
11
Q: If the ONTARIO election was today, which party would you vote for in your local constituency?
While the Liberals have opened up a seven-point
lead among eligible voters, the race is much
closer among those most likely to vote.

Among committed likely voters, the Liberals
have 37% support followed by the PCs at 35%
and the NDP at 22%. The Greens have 5%
support.

The closer race among likely voters indicates
that Tory and Liberal supporters are more likely
to vote than those of other parties, with Tory
supporters being significantly more motivated
than the supporters of other parties.

We profile our sample of likely voters on the
next page. As a reminder, we identify likely
voters using a scale comprised of six questions
asked at the beginning of the survey.

33%
36%
37%
36%
33%
35%
25%
24%
22%
5%
6%
5%
1%
2% 2%
May 16 May 24 May 31
OLP PC NDP Green Other
Who are the Likely Voters?
12
The tables on this page compare the sample of likely and unlikely
voters. As expected, likely voters are significantly older, more
educated, and have higher incomes than unlikely voters. They are also
more likely to be men.

Looking at how the two groups voted in 2011, only six percent of likely
voters said they did not vote in 2011 compared with almost half of
unlikely voters. In 2011, 35% of our likely voters cast a ballot for the
Liberals followed by 32% for the PCs and 19% for the NDP. These
results are similar to results in 2011.

Note, we do not statistically weight our samples by previous vote.

Likely Voter Unlikely Voter
Male 54% 43%
Female 46% 57%
18 to 29 years old 13% 31%
30 to 44 years old 24% 30%
45 to 59 years old 36% 29%
60 and over 26% 10%
HS or less 27% 45%
College
36% 32%
University
37% 23%
Less than $50K
26% 37%
$50K to $100K
39% 34%
Over $100K
20% 14%
Rather not say
15% 15%
Likely Voter Unlikely Voter
2011 Vote
Liberal 35% 18%
PC 32% 12%
NDP 19% 17%
Green 5% 6%
Other 2% 1%
Did not vote 6% 46%
All eligible voters: 13% are undecided, down 2.
13
28%
29%
32%
29%
27%
27%
22%
22%
21%
5%
6% 6%
1%
2% 2%
14%
15%
13%
May 16 May 24 May 31
OLP PC NDP Green Other Undecided
Q: If the ONTARIO election was today, which party would you vote for in your local constituency?
Provincial Vote Intention All Eligible Voters
14
32%
43%
32%
32%
24%
17%
27%
22%
30%
32%
26%
15%
21%
15%
21%
14%
24%
42%
6%
5%
4% 5%
8%
12% 13%
12%
10%
15%
17%
11%
Ontario Postal Code M (Toronto) Postal Code L
(GTA/Ham/Niagara)
Postal Code K (East) Postal Code N (SW) Postal Code P (North)
OLP PC NDP Green Undecided
32%
35%
33%
28%
34%
31%
32%
27%
18%
21%
27%
41%
34%
19%
21%
24%
21% 21%
16%
17%
25%
6%
7%
6%
8%
3%
5%
7%
13%
14%
17%
13%
6%
10%
16%
Ontario 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 60+ Men Women
OLP PC NDP Green Undecided
Provincial Vote Intention All Eligible Voters
15
32%
71%
10%
14%
17%
4%
24%
27%
10%
76%
7%
4%
20%
11%
21%
10%
5%
68%
14%
0%
16%
6%
3%
1%
3%
52%
5%
8%
13%
5% 6%
7%
13%
37%
38%
Ontario OLP 2011 PC 2011 NDP 2011 Green 2011 Other 2011 DNV 2011
OLP PC NDP Green Undecided
32%
33%
35%
20%
31%
32%
35%
27%
23%
29%
32%
31%
14%
19%
21%
22%
17%
25%
17%
27%
30%
6%
7%
5% 5%
7%
6%
2%
13% 13%
11%
16%
12%
17%
9%
Ontario Urban Suburban Rural Private sector Public sector Non-profit
OLP PC NDP Green Undecided
Current Vote Intention by Vote in 2011 Ontario Election
Vote Intention by Sector
16
16
Change vs. Re-election
Time for a Change?
Overall, there has been little change in perceptions about
whether the Ontario Liberals deserve to be re-elected or
whether it is time for a change. The percentage of those thinking
the Liberals deserve to be re-elected is up three since last week
while the percent wanting change is down three. One in four
eligible voters remain unsure about whether it is time for change
or whether the Liberals deserve to be re-elected.
Among those not sure about change, the Liberals lead with 29%
support followed by 22% who said they would vote NDP. The
Tories are well back at 7%.
This demonstrates the challenge for the Tories in growing
support beyond its current level of support. In order for the
Tories to grow it has to either convince more voters it is time for
a change and they are an acceptable alternative or it has to
convince more of those who believe it is time for a change to
support it. Either way, it seems the Tories are close to hitting its
ceiling of support.


17
24%
27%
51%
48%
25% 25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
May 24 May 31
Liberals deserve to be re-elected
Time for a change
Unsure
Generally speaking, do you think Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal
Party deserves to be re-elected or do you think it is time for
another party to take over?
4%
85%
29%
49%
4%
7%
29%
6%
22%
8%
3%
5%
8%
2%
34%
Time for a change
Deserves to be re-elected
Not sure
Undecided Green NDP PC OLP
18
18
Expected Election Outcome
Plurality believe Liberals headed for the win
19
32%
26%
22%
24%
7%
15%
1%
39%
24%
8%
Based on what you have seen and
heard about the election, which party
do you think is going to win the
ONTARIO ELECTION?
And which party do you think is going
to win YOUR electoral district?
OLP PC NDP Green Other Unsure Too close to call
We asked respondents to predict the likely outcome of
the election. Overall a third of eligible voters believe
the Liberals will win compared with 22% who selected
the Tories. Thirty-nine percent of eligible voters were
unsure about who would win.

When asked about the race in their own electoral
district, 26% believed the Liberal candidate would win in
their district compared with 24% for the Tories and 15%
for the NDP. One in four eligible voters were unsure
about who would win in their district while 8% said it
was too close to call.

When we compare expected election outcomes and
vote intention, we find that Liberal supporters generally
think the Liberals will win while Tories generally think
the Tories will win. Among NDP supporters, 27% think
the OLP will win , 26% think the NDP will win, while 10%
think the PCs will win. 38% are unsure the highest
undecided number among the supporters of the three
parties.

Reaction to Possible Election Outcomes
We also asked respondents to tell us how they would feel if each of the
main parties formed a government.
Eligible voters were more likely to be dismayed if Mr. Hudak and the
PCs formed a government (44%) while 36% would be dismayed if the
Ontario Liberals formed a government. Respondents were less likely to
be dismayed at the prospect of an NDP government led by Ms. Horwath
(31%) and were more likely to say they wouldnt mind an NDP
government.
There are some interesting findings when we look at how the different
voter groups react. When it comes to a Liberal government, 55% of the
OLP core voters said they would be delighted while 90% of PC core
voters said they would be dismayed. Among the NDP core, voters were
less likely to be dismayed than PC core voters (56%) while 20% said they
wouldn't mind it if the Liberals won. Opinion was varied among the
swing groups. Among fully flexible voters, 18% said they would be
delighted if the Liberals won while 19% said they would be dismayed.
Another 29% said they wouldn't mind it. Among OLP/NDP swing voters,
29% would be delighted with a Liberal win while 57% wouldn't mind.
Among OLP/PC swing voters, delight was more muted (17%) with
almost half saying they wouldn't mind a Liberal government (48%).
When it comes to a PC government, opinions were more intense. 70%
of the PC core group would be delighted with a PC win while the same
percentage of Liberal and NDP core voters (70%) would be dismayed.
The results among OLP/NDP swing voters demonstrate the challenge
the NDP faces with the prospect of strategic voting. Among this group
(the largest in the electorate), 82% said they would be dismayed with a
PC government, highest among any voter group. If these voters feel
that the Tories are heading to a close finish, many could flock to the
Liberals. In fact, as we reported earlier, the Liberals currently lead
among this group (OLP 57% vs. NDP 37%).




20
17% 17%
14%
36%
44%
31%
29%
20%
33%
18%
20%
22%
A Liberal Government
was formed under Ms.
Wynne as Premier
A PC Government was
formed under Mr. Hudak
as Premier
An NDP Government was
formed under Ms.
Horwath as Premier
I would be delighted I would be dismayed
I wouldn't mind Don't know
Suppose each of the following parties and leaders were to form a
government after the election. Which of these statements comes
closest to your own view on each?
Reaction to Election of Parties by Voter Group
21
18%
55%
1%
3%
17%
29%
1%
19%
1%
90%
56%
14%
3%
80%
29%
33%
6%
20%
48%
57%
6%
34%
11%
4%
21% 21%
11% 13%
Swing OLP core PC core NDP core OLP/PC swing OLP/NDP swing PC/NDP swing
Delighted Dismayed Wouldn't mind Unsure
11%
2%
70%
0%
4%
1%
32%
28%
70%
3%
70%
21%
82%
8%
24%
10%
24%
10%
49%
5%
43%
37%
18%
3%
20%
26%
13%
16%
Swing OLP core PC core NDP core OLP/PC swing OLP/NDP swing PC/NDP swing
Delighted Dismayed Wouldn't mind Unsure
14%
0% 1%
57%
1%
20%
16%
22%
50%
65%
3%
55%
4%
10%
29% 28%
20%
29%
16%
60%
57%
36%
22%
13%
11%
28%
15%
17%
Swing OLP core PC core NDP core OLP/PC swing OLP/NDP swing PC/NDP swing
Delighted Dismayed Wouldn't mind Unsure
A Liberal
Government
A PC
Government
An NDP
Government
22
22
Campaign Dynamics
Campaign Contact with Voters
As part of our election tracking, we will also track the
level of engagement between the political parties and
voters.

In the current wave of research, when asked which
political parties had contact them since the provincial
election started, 54% of all respondents said that no
candidate or party had contacted them. This is down
6-points since the previous week.

Twenty-seven percent of eligible voters reported
being contacted by the Liberals, while 24% reported
being contacted by the PC campaign or candidates.

Respondents were less likely to say they have been
contacted by the NDP (17%) or the Green Party (3%).

These results indicate that the Liberal and PC
campaigns are running at about the same intensity
but that the NDP campaign continues to lag. This may
be indicative of a more targeted NDP campaign
focused on the fewer constituencies it can win.

23
Please indicate all the political parties that have contacted you since the election started.
2%
10%
15%
15%
71%
4%
14%
22%
24%
60%
3%
17%
24%
27%
54%
Green
NDP
PC
Liberal
No candidate/party contacted
May 31 May 24 May 16
Contact by Party Holding Constituency
24
27%
41%
23%
24%
10%
24%
28%
33%
24%
8%
17%
18%
11%
43%
6%
3%
5%
2%
5%
54%
43%
52%
39%
83%
Ontario OLP Held PC Held NDP Held Not sure
OLP PC NDP Green None
Campaign Contact by Party Holding Constituency
When we compare campaign contact across the different party held ridings, the survey finds that each party is making more contact
in ridings it holds. Among respondents living in OLP held ridings, 41% have been contacted by the Liberal Party followed by the PCs
(28%) and NDP (18%). In PC held ridings, there seems to be less activity with 52% of respondents saying they have not been
contacted by any party at all. In NDP held ridings, respondents were more likely to report being contacted by the NDP (43%)
followed by the PCs (41%) and the Liberals (24%).
25
25
Voter Attention to the Election
Interest in the Election
26
32%
33%
36%
45%
44%
44%
17% 15%
14%
7%
8%
6%
May 16 May 24 May 31
Quite a lot Some
Little Not at all
How much thought have
you given to the provincial
election in ONTARIO? Overall, interest in the campaign has not changed
much since our first poll in mid-May.

When asked how much thought they had given to the
provincial election, 36% of respondents said they had
given quite a lot of thought (up 3) compared with 44%
who said they had given some thought. 20% of
eligible voters said they had given little or no thought
to the campaign so far.

Level of interest in the campaign has not changed at
all. 22% of eligible voters said they have been
following the campaign closely while 49% said they
have been following the campaign somewhat closely.

Among those who have given quite a lot of thought to
the election, 40% said they would vote PC, followed
by the Liberals at 34%, the NDP at 18% and Greens at
6%. Seven percent of those who have given a lot of
thought to the election said they were undecided.





22% 21%
22%
48%
48%
49%
24% 24%
21%
7% 7%
8%
May 16 May 24 May 31
Very closely
Somewhat closely
Not that closely
Not at all
How close have you been
following news about the
ONTARIO election?
Methodology
The survey was commissioned by the Sun News Network and conducted online with 1,000 respondents who are eligible to vote in
Ontario. A random sample of panelists was invited to complete the survey from a large representative panel of Ontarians,
recruited and managed by Research Now, one of the worlds leading provider of online research samples. The survey was
conducted from May 28 to 31, 2014.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association policy limits statements about margins of sampling error for most online
surveys. The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of the same size is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
The margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of 875 committed voters of the same is +/- 3.4 %, 19
times out of 20.

Likely voters were identified by creating a six-point scale based on seven questions about a respondents interest in politics, their
intention to vote, whether they have voted already, and the attention they have paid to the election campaign.

The data were weighted according to census data to ensure that the sample matched Ontario's population according to age,
gender, educational attainment, and region. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. For more information please contact
David Coletto, CEO at david@abacusdata.ca or at 613-232-2806.


27
Committed voters
28
Row % Ontario
Liberal
Ontario PC Ontario NDP Ontario Green Another Party Raw Weighted
Region All 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874
Toronto (postal code starts with M) 49% 25% 17% 6% 2% 186 203
GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code
starts with L)
35% 33% 24% 5% 3% 324 334
Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 38% 38% 16% 6% 2% 139 109
Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 29% 31% 29% 9% 1% 168 168
Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 19% 17% 47% 14% 4% 58 58
Age Ontario 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874
18 - 29 41% 20% 29% 8% 2% 122 162
30 - 44 39% 25% 26% 7% 3% 225 218
45 - 59 32% 31% 25% 9% 4% 284 296
60 and over 36% 44% 17% 3% 0% 244 197
Gender Male 35% 38% 19% 6% 3% 448 455
Female 39% 23% 29% 8% 1% 427 419
NET 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874
Past Vote Ontario 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874
Ontario Liberal 75% 10% 11% 3% 1% 282 282
Ontario PC 11% 80% 6% 2% 2% 255 244
Ontario NDP 15% 8% 74% 3% 1% 174 172
Ontario Green 20% 5% 16% 60% 0% 46 44
Another party 7% 31% 0% 8% 55% 10 11
Did not vote 39% 18% 25% 13% 5% 108 120
Community Ontario 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874
Urban 38% 26% 25% 8% 2% 379 402
Suburban 40% 33% 20% 6% 2% 343 340
Rural 23% 38% 30% 6% 3% 153 132
Org Type Private sector 35% 35% 19% 8% 3% 225 292
Public sector 39% 17% 32% 7% 4% 179 137
Non-profit sector 39% 21% 33% 3% 4% 35 34
likelyvoter Likely voter 37% 35% 22% 5% 2% 658 638
NET 37% 30% 24% 7% 2% 875 874
Eligible Voters
29
Row % Ontario Liberal Ontario PC Ontario NDP Ontario Green Another Party Undecided Raw Weighted
Region All 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002
Toronto (postal code starts with M) 43% 22% 15% 5% 2% 12% 212 232
GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal
code starts with L)
32% 30% 21% 4% 2% 10% 362 372
Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 32% 32% 14% 5% 2% 15% 163 128
Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 24% 26% 24% 8% 1% 17% 198 204
Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 17% 15% 42% 12% 3% 11% 65 65
Age Ontario 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002
18 - 29 35% 18% 24% 7% 2% 14% 142 190
30 - 44 33% 21% 21% 6% 3% 17% 270 262
45 - 59 28% 27% 21% 8% 3% 13% 329 340
60 and over 34% 41% 16% 3% 0% 6% 259 210
Gender Male 31% 34% 17% 5% 3% 10% 489 504
Female 32% 19% 25% 7% 1% 16% 511 497
NET 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002
Past Vote Ontario 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002
Ontario Liberal 71% 10% 10% 3% 1% 5% 300 297
Ontario PC 10% 76% 5% 1% 2% 6% 271 258
Ontario NDP 14% 7% 68% 3% 1% 7% 187 186
Ontario Green 17% 4% 14% 52% 0% 13% 53 50
Another party 4% 20% 0% 5% 35% 37% 17 18
Did not vote 24% 11% 16% 8% 3% 38% 172 193
Community Ontario 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002
Urban 33% 23% 22% 7% 2% 13% 434 462
Suburban 35% 29% 17% 5% 2% 11% 386 382
Rural 20% 32% 25% 5% 3% 16% 180 157
Org Type Private sector 31% 31% 17% 7% 3% 12% 255 331
Public sector 32% 14% 27% 6% 3% 17% 214 165
Non-profit sector 35% 19% 30% 2% 4% 9% 39 38
likelyvoter Likely voter 35% 33% 21% 5% 2% 5% 699 675
NET 32% 27% 21% 6% 2% 13% 1,000 1,002
Suppose each of the following parties and leaders were to form a government after the election. Which of these statements
comes closest to your own view on each? | A Liberal Government was formed under Ms. Wynne as Premier
30
Total sample; Weight: WEIGHT; base n = from 508 to 1000; total n = 1000; 492 missing; effective sample size = 843 (84%)
Multiple comparison correction: False Discovery Rate (FDR) (p = 0.05)
Row % I would be
delighted
I would be
dismayed
I wouldn't mind Don't know Raw Weighted
Region All 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002
Toronto (postal code starts with M) 24% 26% 34% 16% 212 232
GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code starts with
L)
18% 40% 25% 16% 362 372
Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 16% 36% 30% 19% 163 128
Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 10% 40% 28% 23% 198 204
Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 14% 41% 28% 17% 65 65
Age Ontario 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002
18 - 29 16% 24% 33% 27% 142 190
30 - 44 15% 32% 34% 19% 270 262
45 - 59 17% 40% 29% 15% 329 340
60 and over 23% 46% 18% 13% 259 210
Gender Male 16% 44% 27% 12% 489 504
Female 19% 28% 30% 23% 511 497
NET 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002
Past Vote Ontario 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002
Ontario Liberal 40% 14% 38% 8% 300 297
Ontario PC 6% 67% 16% 11% 271 258
Ontario NDP 11% 39% 36% 14% 187 186
Ontario Green 15% 39% 34% 12% 53 50
Another party 0% 59% 18% 23% 17 18
Did not vote 6% 24% 23% 46% 172 193
Community Ontario 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002
Urban 20% 32% 31% 18% 434 462
Suburban 17% 38% 29% 16% 386 382
Rural 10% 47% 21% 22% 180 157
Org Type Private sector 13% 41% 33% 13% 255 331
Public sector 15% 28% 33% 24% 214 165
Non-profit sector 24% 26% 33% 17% 39 38
likelyvoter Likely voter 22% 40% 28% 10% 699 675
NET 17% 36% 29% 18% 1,000 1,002
Suppose each of the following parties and leaders were to form a government after the election. Which of these statements
comes closest to your own view on each? | A PC Government was formed under Mr. Hudak as Premier
31
Total sample; Weight: WEIGHT; base n = from 508 to 1000; total n = 1000; 492 missing; effective sample size = 837 (84%)
Multiple comparison correction: False Discovery Rate (FDR) (p = 0.05)
Row % I would be
delighted
I would be
dismayed
I wouldn't mind Don't know Raw Weighted
Region All 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002
Toronto (postal code starts with M) 17% 43% 21% 19% 212 232
GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code starts with
L)
20% 43% 20% 17% 362 372
Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 16% 43% 24% 18% 163 128
Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 15% 46% 15% 24% 198 204
Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 11% 50% 15% 24% 65 65
Age Ontario 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002
18 - 29 12% 41% 18% 30% 142 190
30 - 44 13% 42% 22% 24% 270 262
45 - 59 16% 49% 20% 16% 329 340
60 and over 28% 42% 18% 12% 259 210
Gender Male 22% 42% 23% 13% 489 504
Female 12% 46% 17% 26% 511 497
NET 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002
Past Vote Ontario 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002
Ontario Liberal 5% 65% 17% 13% 300 297
Ontario PC 51% 14% 26% 10% 271 258
Ontario NDP 5% 69% 14% 13% 187 186
Ontario Green 8% 69% 12% 12% 53 50
Another party 16% 26% 42% 16% 17 18
Did not vote 4% 24% 21% 51% 172 193
Community Ontario 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002
Urban 15% 45% 19% 21% 434 462
Suburban 18% 44% 19% 19% 386 382
Rural 20% 41% 22% 17% 180 157
Org Type Private sector 23% 37% 23% 16% 255 331
Public sector 7% 54% 16% 23% 214 165
Non-profit sector 13% 41% 27% 20% 39 38
likelyvoter Likely voter 22% 48% 19% 10% 699 675
NET 17% 44% 20% 20% 1,000 1,002
Suppose each of the following parties and leaders were to form a government after the election. Which of these statements
comes closest to your own view on each? | An NDP Government was formed under Ms. Horwath as Premier
32
Total sample; Weight: WEIGHT; base n = from 508 to 1000; total n = 1000; 492 missing; effective sample size = 837 (84%)
Multiple comparison correction: False Discovery Rate (FDR) (p = 0.05)
Row % I would be
delighted
I would be
dismayed
I wouldn't mind Don't know Raw Weighted
Region All 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002
Toronto (postal code starts with M) 9% 34% 34% 23% 212 232
GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code starts with
L)
14% 32% 35% 19% 362 372
Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 8% 29% 38% 25% 163 128
Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 19% 27% 28% 26% 198 204
Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 28% 28% 23% 21% 65 65
Age Ontario 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002
18 - 29 20% 15% 34% 32% 142 190
30 - 44 16% 25% 37% 22% 270 262
45 - 59 13% 33% 32% 21% 329 340
60 and over 7% 47% 29% 16% 259 210
Gender Male 12% 34% 38% 17% 489 504
Female 16% 27% 28% 28% 511 497
NET 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002
Past Vote Ontario 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002
Ontario Liberal 11% 37% 36% 16% 300 297
Ontario PC 4% 52% 27% 17% 271 258
Ontario NDP 43% 8% 42% 8% 187 186
Ontario Green 10% 27% 48% 15% 53 50
Another party 12% 18% 48% 22% 17 18
Did not vote 6% 16% 23% 55% 172 193
Community Ontario 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002
Urban 17% 30% 33% 21% 434 462
Suburban 9% 31% 36% 23% 386 382
Rural 17% 31% 27% 25% 180 157
Org Type Private sector 13% 30% 35% 22% 255 331
Public sector 18% 20% 37% 25% 214 165
Non-profit sector 25% 22% 34% 19% 39 38
likelyvoter Likely voter 16% 37% 34% 14% 699 675
NET 14% 30% 33% 22% 1,000 1,002
Based on what you have seen and heard about the election, which party do
you think is going to win the ONTARIO ELECTION?
33
Total sample; Weight: WEIGHT; base n = from 508 to 1000; total n = 1000; 492 missing; effective sample size = 842 (84%)
Multiple comparison correction: False Discovery Rate (FDR) (p = 0.05)
Row % Ontario Liberal Ontario PC Ontario NDP Not sure Raw Weighted
Region All 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002
Toronto (postal code starts with M) 39% 19% 8% 33% 212 232
GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario (postal code starts
with L)
29% 25% 8% 38% 362 372
Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 36% 21% 4% 38% 163 128
Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts with N) 26% 22% 5% 47% 198 204
Northern Ontario (postal code starts with P) 29% 18% 14% 39% 65 65
Age Ontario 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002
18 - 29 37% 19% 13% 31% 142 190
30 - 44 30% 20% 11% 39% 270 262
45 - 59 31% 23% 4% 41% 329 340
60 and over 30% 25% 3% 42% 259 210
Gender Male 32% 28% 7% 33% 489 504
Female 31% 16% 8% 45% 511 497
NET 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002
Past Vote Ontario 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002
Ontario Liberal 51% 15% 6% 28% 300 297
Ontario PC 14% 48% 2% 36% 271 258
Ontario NDP 33% 13% 19% 35% 187 186
Ontario Green 39% 13% 9% 39% 53 50
Another party 9% 20% 0% 72% 17 18
Did not vote 26% 9% 5% 60% 172 193
Community Ontario 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002
Urban 33% 17% 11% 39% 434 462
Suburban 33% 27% 4% 36% 386 382
Rural 25% 26% 6% 43% 180 157
Org Type Private sector 31% 27% 7% 36% 255 331
Public sector 32% 16% 12% 39% 214 165
Non-profit sector 41% 22% 5% 31% 39 38
likelyvoter Likely voter 36% 27% 7% 30% 699 675
NET 32% 22% 7% 39% 1,000 1,002
And which party do you think is going to win YOUR electoral
district?
34
Row % Ontario
Liberal
Ontario PC Ontario NDP Ontario
Green
Another
party
It's too close
to call
Not sure Raw Weighted
Region All 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002
Toronto (postal code starts with M) 43% 13% 12% 1% 2% 7% 23% 212 232
GTA, Hamilton/Niagara or Central Ontario
(postal code starts with L)
24% 31% 13% 1% 0% 8% 23% 362 372
Eastern Ontario (postal code starts with K) 29% 31% 4% 1% 0% 8% 26% 163 128
Southwestern Ontario (postal code starts
with N)
15% 26% 17% 2% 0% 11% 29% 198 204
Northern Ontario (postal code starts with
P)
10% 14% 54% 2% 0% 1% 18% 65 65
Age Ontario 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002
18 - 29 28% 16% 18% 4% 1% 4% 28% 142 190
30 - 44 24% 22% 15% 2% 0% 9% 26% 270 262
45 - 59 26% 25% 15% 0% 0% 8% 26% 329 340
60 and over 28% 35% 13% 0% 0% 8% 16% 259 210
Gender Male 28% 30% 13% 1% 0% 9% 18% 489 504
Female 25% 19% 17% 1% 1% 7% 30% 511 497
NET 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002
Past Vote Ontario 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002
Ontario Liberal 46% 18% 11% 1% 0% 9% 14% 300 297
Ontario PC 13% 56% 6% 0% 0% 9% 16% 271 258
Ontario NDP 17% 14% 40% 1% 1% 8% 19% 187 186
Ontario Green 31% 12% 9% 10% 2% 12% 25% 53 50
Another party 29% 0% 14% 12% 0% 0% 46% 17 18
Did not vote 22% 8% 12% 0% 0% 5% 54% 172 193
Community Ontario 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002
Urban 31% 17% 19% 1% 1% 8% 23% 434 462
Suburban 28% 27% 11% 1% 0% 9% 24% 386 382
Rural 8% 40% 16% 1% 0% 5% 31% 180 157
Org Type Private sector 25% 26% 12% 3% 1% 10% 24% 255 331
Public sector 25% 22% 14% 2% 0% 6% 31% 214 165
Non-profit sector 35% 19% 21% 0% 0% 8% 17% 39 38
likelyvoter Likely voter 30% 29% 16% 2% 1% 9% 13% 699 675
NET 26% 24% 15% 1% 0% 8% 24% 1,000 1,002