Methods of Impact Identification, Prediction and

Significance of Impacts
Methods of Impact Prediction
There are many potential methods available for predicting impacts on a variety of
resources. No prediction methods are perfect and new or improved methods are
constantly being developed.
Predictive methods are extrapolative and/or Normative
Extrapolative Methods are those in which the predictions are made on the basis of past
and present data and which include trend and scenario analysis (the common sense
forecast of the future), analogies (transferring experience from elsewhere), and intuitive
forecasting from group consensus (Delphi Method).
Normative Methods examine how the fulfillment of a desired target is achieved. For
example, if in one construction project, a target set is to employ 50% of the local
populace. Meeting this target, may require changing the project and associated
employment policy.
In general, the prediction methods are divided into the following six types described
below:
1) Mathematical Model
Such models are based on cause-effect relationships usually expressed in the form of
mathematical functions. They may be simple input-output models or of complex dynamic
types. Such models are primarily used for predicting the impact only partially (e.g.,
model for phosphorus retention in a lake, or model to predict the economic multiplier in a
particular area). Models which are comprehensive and provide a holistic approach are
often rare, except in some cases of land-use planning.
Mathematical models are divided into two types.
deterministic models are usually derived through fixed relationships. They are more
commonly used in socioeconomic impact prediction. For example, the economic
multiplier in a project where injection of money in the project area takes place and the
impact on the economy of the project area is examined, and
the stochastic model is a probabilistic type in which the prediction depends upon the
degree of probability of occurrence of a number of events in a given area and time.

A simple model termed a 'mass balance model' is usually applied for indicating the input
from one compartment resulting in the output for another. If the inputs are water, food,
and chemicals in one compartment, the outputs would be water and wastes flowing out
into another compartment. Mass balance models are primarily useful for predicting
impacts from industries or manufacturing sections.

2) Statistical Models
Statistical techniques such as regression or component analysis are sometimes used to
indicate the relationship between the data and test hypothesis, for example, in predicting
flood frequencies.

3) Geography Information System (GIS)
Satellite images, physical maps and aerial photographs provide information on existing
resources. Prediction of impacts of the development project can be made by analysing
the effect of project activities on the resources present in the location by using GIS
techniques.

4) Field and Laboratory Experimental Methods
Field inventory carried out prior to project implementation provide the baseline
information of resources. For example, a fish resource survey in the River of Nepal
indicated that a long-distance migratory fish species are existing in the river. It could then
be determined that the construction of a dam in the upstream part of the river might create
an obstruction for their upstream migration of the fish for breeding. Such an impact
would lead to the decline of the fish population in upstream of the dam unless mitigation
is planned to deal with the problem.

Similarly, laboratory tests also provide some insight on the effects of certain activities on
the resources. For example, the application of DDT in fields might inhibit the growth of
seedling of crops. The laboratory simulation tests would determine what doses of DDT
might inhibit the growth and the application of up to what range of doze would be safer.

5) Physical Models
These models are closely linked to field and laboratory experiments making critical
engineering and other decisions on site. Basically, a model of an area likely to be
impacted is constructed but on a smaller scale. For example, it could show the physical
parameters of a Run-of-river hydropower project. Both natural features such as
topography and socio-cultural features such as villages, schools and bridges are included.
In the case of rivers, the effect of impoundment on flow can be calculated. Tunnel and
pipeline routes as well as locations of power houses and labor camps can be shown. The
deposition of waste can also be demonstrated on the model, to make decisions about how
it is to be handled.

6) Expert Judgement
Expert judgement refers to an event occurring due to certain activities in a particular
location that may be analogous to other locations of similar conditions with similar
activities.

The experience of one place could very well be utilised for similar places elsewhere
where the environmental impacts are unknown. For example, many irrigation
development projects produce effects of salinisation. Decisions on anticipated impact
based on past experience are the result of conceptual models often referred to as 'expert
judgements'.

The assessor is responsible for selecting impact prediction methods for the particular
development project in question, bearing in mind the following that is:
produce acceptable results,
be replicable,
be consistent, and
be adaptable.