Mdali

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India
Executive Summary
The main aim of the investor is to minimize the risk involved in investment &
maximize the return. Today there are number of options available to investor like Post
Office investment, Bank Deposit, nsurance, !utual "und, #tock !arket etc...
Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to
forecast the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data,
primarily price and volume.
This pro&ect is about a brief introduction to Technical 'nalysis, different price
patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit that patterns.etc( The
contents in this pro&ect are made simple so as to make a layman understands the terms
used in the Technical 'nalysis.
The core area of this pro&ect focuses )hat a technical analysts may employ
models and tradin% rules based, for example, on price transformations, such as the
*elative #tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es, throu%h reco%nition of chart patterns. This
pro&ect contains some elementary statistics )hich are used in calculation )hich help
in dra)in% inferences.
The ob&ective of the study helps to predict or forecast the short, intermediate &
lon% term price movements. +hen to buy and sell stock by analyzin% technical
indicators. 'nd helps to measure to the rate of chan%e bet)een the current price and
price in past and to identify overbou%ht& oversold re%ion. The art of technical
analysis for it is an art is to identify trend chan%es at an early sta%e and to maintain an
investment an investment posture until the )ei%ht of the evidence indicates that the
trend has been reversed.
Technical 'nalysis also provides a comprehensive study on stock historical
price charts and predicts the future trend in the market. But still there is much
controversial opinion on the validity of technical tradin% rule. t re$uires more study
to prove the usefulness of technical analysis in investor,s buy/sell/hold decision
makin%.
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INTRODUCTION
ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to
forecast the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data,
primarily price and volume. n its purest form, technical analysis considers only the
actual price behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that price reflects
all relevant factors before an investor becomes a)are of them throu%h other channels.
Technical analysts may employ models and tradin% rules based, for example,
on price transformations, such as the *elative #tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es,
re%ressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically,
throu%h reco%nition of chart patterns.
Genera !e"cri#ti$n
Technical analysts .or technicians/ seek to identify price patterns and trends in
financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. +hile technicians use various
methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary. Technicians especially search
for archetypal patterns, such as the )ell-kno)n head and shoulders reversal pattern,
and also study such indicators as price, volume, and movin% avera%es of the price.
!any technical analysts also follo) indicators of investor psycholo%y.
0ritics ar%ue that these 1patterns1 are simply random effects on )hich humans
impose causation. They state that human see patterns that aren1t there and then ascribe
value to them.
Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, )hich are typically
mathematical transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help
determine )hether an asset is trendin%, and if it is, its price direction. Technicians also
look for relationships bet)een price, volume, and in the case of futures, open interest.
2xamples include the relative stren%th index, and !'0D. Other avenues of study
include correlations bet)een chan%es in options 3implied volatility4 and put5call ratios
)ith price.
Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that lar%e %ains from
successful trades exceed more numerous but smaller losin% trades, producin% positive
returns in the lon% run throu%h proper risk control and money mana%ement.
Technical analysis is fre$uently contrasted )ith fundamental analysis, the
study of economic factors that some analysts say can influence prices in financial
markets. Pure technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such influences
before investors are a)are of them, hence the study of price action alone. #ome
traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, )hile others use both types
to make tradin% decisions.
Lac% $& evi!ence
0ritics of technical analysis include )ell kno)n fundamental analysts. "or
example, Peter 6ynch once commented, 70harts are %reat for predictin% the past.7
+arren Buffet has said, 7 realized technical analysis didn1t )ork )hen turned the
charts upside do)n and didn1t %et a different ans)er7 and 7f past history )as all there
)as to the %ame, the richest people )ould be librarians8.
!ost academic studies say technical analysis has little predictive po)er, but
some studies say it may produce excess returns. "or example, measurable forms of
technical analysis, such as non-linear prediction usin% neural net)orks, have been
sho)n to occasionally produce statistically si%nificant prediction results. ' "ederal
*eserve )orkin% paper re%ardin% support and resistance levels in short-term forei%n
exchan%e rates 7offers stron% evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend
interruptions,7 althou%h the 7predictive po)er7 of those levels )as 7found to vary
across the exchan%e rates and firms examined.7
E&&icient mar%et 'y#$t'e"i"
The efficient market hypothesis .2!9/ contradicts the basic tenets of
technical analysis, by statin% that past prices cannot be used to profitably predict
future prices. Thus it holds that technical analysis cannot be effective. 2conomist
2u%ene "ame published the seminal paper on the 2!9 in the :ournal of "inance in
;<=>, and said 7n short, the evidence in support of the efficient markets model is
extensive, and contradictory evidence is sparse8. 2!9 advocates say that if prices
$uickly reflect all relevant information, no method .includin% technical analysis/ can
7beat the market.7 Developments )hich influence prices occur randomly and are
unkno)able in advance.
Technicians say that 2!9 i%nores the )ay markets )ork, in that many
investors base their expectations on past earnin%s or track record, for example.
Because future stock prices can be stron%ly influenced by investor expectations,
technicians claim it only follo)s that past prices influence future prices.
Ran!$m (a% 'y#$t'e"i"
The random )alk hypothesis may be derived from the )eak-form efficient
markets hypothesis, )hich is based on the assumption that market participants take
full account of any information contained in past price movements.7The problem is
that once such re%ularity is kno)n to market participants, people )ill act in such a
)ay that prevents it from happenin% in the future8.
Hi"t$ry
The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial
markets over hundreds of years. The oldest kno)n example of technical analysis )as
a method used by :apanese traders as early as the ;?th century, )hich evolved into the
use of candlestick techni$ues, and is today a main chartin% tool. !any more technical
tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, )ith an
increasin% emphasis on computer-assisted techni$ues.
)rinci#e" $& tec'nica anay"i"
Technicians say that a market1s price reflects all relevant information, so their
analysis looks more at 7internals7 than at 7externals7 such as ne)s events. Price action
also tends to repeat itself because investors collectively tend to)ard patterned
behavior -- hence technicians1 focus on identifiable trends and conditions.
*ar%et acti$n !i"c$unt" everyt'in+
On most of the sizable return days the information that the press cites as the
cause of the market move is not particularly important. Press reports on ad&acent days
also fail to reveal any convincin% accounts of )hy future profits or discount rates
mi%ht have chan%ed. Our inability to identify the fundamental shocks that accounted
for these si%nificant market moves is difficult to reconcile )ith the vie) that such
shocks account for most of the variation in stock returns.
)rice" m$ve in tren!"
Technical analysts believe that prices trend. Technicians say that markets
trend up, do)n, or side)ays .flat/. 'n example of a security that had an apparent
trend is 'O6 from @ovember A>>; throu%h 'u%ust A>>A. ' technical analyst or trend
follo)er reco%nizin% this trend )ould look for opportunities to sell this security. 'O6
consistently moves do)n)ard in price. 2ach time the stock rose, sellers )ould enter
the market and sell the stockB hence the 7zi%-za%7 movement in the price. n other
)ords, each time the stock ed%ed lo)er, it fell belo) its previous relative lo) price.
Hi"t$ry ten!" t$ re#eat it"e&
Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the
investors that preceded them. Technical analysis is not limited to chartin%, yet is
al)ays concerned )ith price trends. "or example, many technicians monitor surveys
of investor sentiment.. Technicians use these surveys to help determine )hether a
trend )ill continue or if a reversal could developB they are most likely to anticipate a
chan%e )hen the surveys report extreme investor sentiment.
Rue,-a"e! tra!in+
*ule-based tradin% is an approach to make one1s tradin% plans by strict and
clear-cut rules. Cnlike some other technical methods or most fundamental analysis, it
defines a set of rules that determines all trades, leavin% minimal discretion. "or
instance, a trader mi%ht make a set of rules statin% that he )ill take a lon% position
)henever the price of a particular instrument closes above its D>-day movin% avera%e,
and shortin% it )henever it drops belo).
C$m-inin+ Tec'nica Anay"i" (it' $t'er *ar%et .$reca"t *et'$!"
:ohn !urphy in his book 7Technical 'nalysis of the "inancial !arkets7, says
that the principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume
and open interest. Other data, such as indicators and sentiment analysis are considered
secondary. Technical analysis is also often combined )ith $uantitative analysis and
economics. "or example, neural net)orks may be used to help identify inter market
relationships. ' fe) market forecasters combine financial astrolo%y )ith technical
analysis.
C'artin+ term" an! in!icat$r"
+idely-kno)n technical analysis concepts includeE
Breakout - )hen a price passes throu%h and stays above an area of support or
resistance
0ommodity 0hannel ndex - identifies cyclical trends
!omentum - the rate of price chan%e
!ovin% avera%e - la%s behind the price action
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*elative #tren%th ndex .*#/ - oscillator sho)in% price stren%th
*esistance - an area that brin%s on increased sellin%
AN O/ER/IE0 O. STOC1 *AR1ET:
' stock market is a private or public market for the tradin% of company stock and
derivatives of company stock at an a%reed priceB both of these are securities listed on
a stock exchan%e as )ell as those only traded privately.
De&initi$n:
The expression 1stock market1 refers to the market that enables the tradin% of
company stocks .collective shares/, other securities, and derivatives. Bonds are still
traditionally traded in an informal, over-the-counter market kno)n as the bond
market. 0ommodities are traded in commodities markets, and derivatives are traded in
a variety of markets .but, like bonds, mostly 1over-the-counter1/.
*ar%et #artici#ant":
!any years a%o, )orld)ide, buyers and sellers )ere individual investors, such
as )ealthy businessmen, )ith lon% family histories to particular corporations. Over
time, markets have become more 7institutionalized7B buyers and sellers are lar%ely
institutions .e.%., pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, hed%e funds,
investor %roups, and banks/.
The rise of the institutional investor has brou%ht )ith it some improvements in
market operations. Thus, the %overnment )as responsible for 7fixed7 fees bein%
markedly reduced for the 1small1 investor, but only after the lar%e institutions had
mana%ed to break the brokers1 solid front on fees .they then )ent to 1ne%otiated1 fees,
but only for lar%e institutions/.
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Im#$rtance $& "t$c% mar%et:
1. .uncti$n an! #ur#$"e:
The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise
money. This allo)s businesses to %o public, or raise additional capital for expansion.
The li$uidity that an exchan%e provides affords investors the ability to $uickly and
easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investin% in stocks, compared to
other less li$uid investments such as real estate.
2. Reati$n $& t'e "t$c% mar%et t$ t'e m$!ern &inancia "y"tem:
The financial system in most )estern countries has under%one a remarkable
transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. ' portion of the
funds involved in savin% and financin% flo)s directly to the financial markets instead
of bein% routed via banks1 traditional lendin% and deposit operations. The %eneral
public1s hei%htened interest in investin% in the stock market, either directly or throu%h
mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. #tatistics sho) that in
recent decades shares have made up an increasin%ly lar%e proportion of households1
financial assets in many countries.
23 T'e St$c% *ar%et4 in!ivi!ua inve"t$r" 5 &inancia ri"%:
*iskier lon%-term savin% re$uires that an individual possess the ability to mana%e
the associated increased risks. #tock prices fluctuate )idely, in marked contrast to the
stability of bank deposits or bonds. This is somethin% that could affect not only the
individual investor or household, but also the economy on a lar%e scale. This is
certainly more important no) that so many ne)comers have entered the stock market,
or have ac$uired other 1risky1 investments.
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Irrati$na -e'avi$r:
#ometimes the market tends to react irrationally to economic ne)s, even if
that ne)s has no real affect on the technical value of securities itself. Therefore, the
stock market can be s)ayed tremendously in either direction by press releases,
rumors, euphoria and mass panic. Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can
be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-chan%in% events, makin% the
stock market difficult to predict.
63 T'e Cra"'e":
' stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of e$uities
listed on the stock exchan%es. n parallel )ith various economic factors, a reason for
stock market crashes is also due to panic. Often, stock market crashes end up )ith
speculative economic bubbles.
St$c% mar%et in!ex:
The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in
price indices called stock market indices, of )hich there are many, e.%., the #&P, the
"T#2 and the 2uro next indices. #uch indices are usually market capitalization .the
total market value of floatin% capital of the company/ )ei%hted, )ith the )ei%hts
reflectin% the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are
revie)ed fre$uently to include5exclude stocks in order to reflect the chan%in%
business environment.
Derivative in"trument":
"inancial innovation has brou%ht many ne) financial instruments )hose pay-
offs or values depend on the prices of stocks. #ome examples are exchan%e-traded
funds .2T"s/, stock index and stock options, e$uity s)aps, sin%le-stock futures, and
stock index futures. These last t)o may be traded on futures exchan%es .)hich are
distinct from stock exchan%esFtheir history traces back to commodities futures
exchan%es/, or traded over-the-counter. 's all of these products are only derived from
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stocks, they are sometimes considered to be traded in a .hypothetical/ derivatives
market, rather than the .hypothetical/ stock market.
Levera+e! Strate+ie":
#tock that a trader does not actually o)n may be traded usin% short sellin%B
mar%in buyin% may be used to purchase stock )ith borro)ed fundsB or, derivatives
may be used to control lar%e blocks of stocks for a much smaller amount of money
than )ould be re$uired by outri%ht purchase or sale.
73 S'$rt "ein+:
n short sellin%, the trader borro)s stock .usually from his brokera%e )hich
holds its clients1 shares or its o)n shares on account to lend to short sellers/ then sells
it on the market, hopin% for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the
stock, makin% money if the price fell in the meantime or losin% money if it rose.
2xitin% a short position by buyin% back the stock is called 7coverin% a short position.7
This strate%y may also be used by unscrupulous traders to artificially lo)er the price
of a stock. 9ence most markets either prevent short sellin% or place restrictions on
)hen and ho) a short sale can occur.
83 *ar+in -uyin+:
n mar%in buyin%, the trader borro)s money .at interest/ to buy a stock and
hopes for it to rise. !ost industrialized countries have re%ulations that re$uire that if
the borro)in% is based on collateral from other stocks the trader o)ns outri%ht, it can
be a maximum of a certain percenta%e of those other stocks1 value. ' mar%in call is
made if the total value of the investor1s account cannot support the loss of the trade.
*e%ulation of mar%in re$uirements .by the "ederal *eserve/ )as implemented after
the 0rash of ;<A<. Before that, speculators typically only needed to put up as little as
;> percent .or even less/ of the total investment represented by the stocks purchased.
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Ne( i""uance:
Global issuance of e$uity and e$uity-related instruments totaled HD>D billion
in A>>I, a A<.?J increase over the HK?< billion raised in A>>K. nitial public offerin%s
.POs/ by C# issuers increased AA;J )ith AKK offerin%s that raised HID billion, and
POs in 2urope, !iddle 2ast and 'frica .2!2'/ increased by KKKJ, from H < billion
to HK< billion.
Inve"tment "trate+ie":
One of the many thin%s people al)ays )ant to kno) about the stock market is,
79o) do make money investin%L7 There are many different approachesB t)o basic
methods are classified as either &un!amenta anay"i" $r tec'nica anay"i".
"undamental analysis refers to analyzin% companies by their financial statements
found in #20 "ilin%s, business trends, %eneral economic conditions, etc. Tec'nica
anay"i" studies price actions in markets throu%h the use of charts and $uantitative
techni$ues to attempt to forecast price trends re%ardless of the company1s financial
prospects.
Taxati$n:
'ccordin% to each national or state le%islation, a lar%e array of fiscal
obli%ations must be respected re%ardin% capital %ains, and taxes are char%ed by the
state over the transactions, dividends and capital %ains on the stock market, in
particular in the stock exchan%es. 9o)ever, these fiscal obli%ations may vary from
&urisdiction to &urisdiction because, amon% other reasons, it could be assumed that
taxation is already incorporated into the stock price throu%h the different taxes
companies pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost
economic %ro)th.
RESEARCH DESIGN:
*esearch desi%n is the blue print of the study. t provides a frame)ork under
)hich the research has been conducted. t includes title of the study, problem
statement, ob&ectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data
collection and interpretation and an overvie) of chapter scheme.
837 Tite $& t'e )r$9ect
' #tudy on Technical analysis of cement sector in ndia.
838 Statement $& )r$-em
Technical analysts .or technicians/ seek to identify price patterns and trends in
financial markets and attempt to exploit those patternsB the main problem is that these
patterns are simply random effects on )hich humans impose causation.
832 Revie( $& Literature
@eftci .;<<;/ sho)ed that fe) of the rules used in technical analysis %enerate
)ell-defined techni$ues of forecastin%, but even )ell Mdefined rules are sho)n to be
useless in prediction if the economic times series in Gaussain. 9o) ever, if the
processes under consideration are nonlinear, then the rules mi%ht capture some
information. Tests sho)ed that this may indeed to be the case for the follo)in%
avera%e rule.
Taylor and 'llen .;<<A/ report the results of the survey amon% chief forei%ner
exchan%e dealer based in 6ondon in @ovember ;<?? and found that at least <>
percent of respondent placed some )ei%hts on technical analysis and that there )as
ske) to)ards usin% technical, rather than fundamental analysis at shorter time
horizons.
n a comprehensive and influential study Brock, 6akonishok and 6ebaron
.;<<A/ analyzed AN technical tradin% rules usin% <> years of daily stock prices from
the Do) :ones industrial avera%e up to ;<?= and found that they all outperformed
market.
Blume, 2asiey and O, 9ara .;<<I/ sho) that volume provides information on
information $uality that cannot be deducted from price. They also sho) that traders
)ho use information contained in market statistics do better than traders )ho do not
Oava&ecz and Odders M +hite .A>>I/ sho) that support and resistance levels
coincide )ith peaks in depth on the limit order book and movin% avera%e forecasts
reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. They also sho)
that these relationships stem from technical rules locatin% depth already in place on
the limit order book
836 O-9ective $& Stu!y
;. To find out the accuracy of technical analysis in individual stock price prediction.
A. To determine the trend of the stock prices usin% technical analysis.
K. To predict the future share price movements of particular scripts.
83: Sc$#e $& t'e Stu!y
Technical analysis is )idely used by forex, e$uity, and commodity traders, to
determine the short term as )ell as the lon% term trends of the market. The scope of
technical analysis is increasin% every day, as more and more people are tryin% to learn
the skills of technical analysis to earn %ood returns.
83; *et'$!$$+y
The data collected for the research purpose are secondary data. 0losin% prices
of scripts )ere collected throu%h @ational #tock 2xchan%e )ebsite. The data
employed in this study comprises of five year observations on the 0ement #ector
companies, 0losin% price.
SECONDARY DATA:
#econdary data refers to those data that has already been collected and
analyzed by someone else. n other )ords secondary data is the information
that already exists some)here havin% been collected for another purpose. t this
study secondary data )as collected from various sources likeE
+eb sites
Text Books
Business ma%azines.
83< Stati"tica T$$" U"e! in Anay"i" $& Stu!y:
;. !ovin% 'vera%e.
A. *elative stren%th index.
7= *$vin+ Avera+e3
!ovin% avera%e is an indicator that sho)s the avera%e value of a security1s price
over a period of time. To find the D>-day movin% avera%e you )ould add up the
closin% prices .but not al)ays(more later/ from the past D> days and divide them by
D>. 'nd because prices are constantly chan%in% it means the movin% avera%e )ill
move as )ell.
The most commonly used movin% avera%es are the A>, K>, D>, ;>>, and A>>-day
avera%es. 2ach movin% avera%e provides a different interpretation on )hat the stock
price )ill do. !ovin% avera%es )ith different time spans each tell a different story.
The shorter the time span, the more sensitive the movin% avera%e )ill be to price
chan%es. The lon%er the time span, the less sensitive or the more smoothed the
movin% avera%e )ill be. !ovin% avera%es are used to emphasize the direction of a
trend and smooth out price and volume fluctuations or that can confuse interpretation.
The %eneral assumption behind all movin% avera%es is that once the stock price
moves above the avera%e it may have substantial momentum behind it and is )orth
buyin%. The opposite is true if the price of a security moves belo) the movin%
avera%e.
Typically, )hen a stock price moves belo) its movin% avera%e it is a bad si%n
because the stock is movin% on a ne%ative trend. The opposite is true for stocks that
exceed their movin% avera%e - in this case, hold on for the ride.
8= Reative "tren+t' in!ex:
There are a fe) different tools that can be used to interpret the stren%th of a
stock. One of these is the *elative #tren%th ndex .*#/, )hich is a comparison
bet)een the days that a stock finishes up and the days it finishes do)n. This indicator
is a bi% tool in momentum tradin%.
The *# is a reasonably simple model that anyone can use. t is calculated
usin% the follo)in% formula.
RSI > 7?? , @7??/ A7 B RS=C
*# P .'v%. of n-day up closes//.'v%. of n-day do)n closes/
The *# ran%es from > to ;>>. 't around the => levels, a stock is considered
overbou%ht and you should consider sellin%. n a bull market some believe that ?> is a
better level to indicate an overbou%ht stock since stocks often trade at hi%her
valuations durin% bull markets. 6ike)ise, if the *# approaches K>, a stock is
considered oversold and you should consider buyin%. '%ain, make the ad&ustment to
A> in a bear market.
The smaller the number of days used, the more volatile the *# is and the
more often it )ill hit extremes. ' lon%er term *# is more rollin%, fluctuatin% a lot
less. Different sectors and industries have varyin% threshold levels )hen it comes to
the *#. #tocks in some industries )ill %o as hi%h as =D-?> before droppin% back,
)hile others have a tou%h time breakin% past =>. ' %ood rule is to )atch the *# over
the lon% term .one year or more/ to determine at )hat level the historical *# has
traded and ho) the stock reacted )hen it reached those levels.
83D Overvie( $& Re#$rt
C'a#ter "c'eme:
C'a#ter 7: Intr$!ucti$n
This chapter includes ntroduction of Technical analysis and 0ement sector.
C'a#ter 8: Re"earc' !e"i+n
*esearch desi%n is the blue print of the study. t provides a frame)ork under )hich
the research has been conducted. t includes title of the study, problem statement,
ob&ectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data collection and
interpretation and an overvie) of chapter scheme.
C'a#ter 2: In!u"try #r$&ie
This chapter covers the industry profile.
C'a#ter 6: Anay"i" an! Inter#retati$n $& !ata
This chapter includes the data collected for the purpose of research and the
interpretation of the data, tables and %raphs are used )herever necessary.
C'a#ter :: Summary $& .in!in+"4 C$ncu"i$n" 5Rec$mmen!ati$n"
This chapter provides ma&or findin%s and conclusions of the study for it also includes
the recommendation made by the researcher.
Bi-i$+ra#'y
Annexure
63 INDUSTRY )RO.ILE
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INTRODUCTION TO CE*ENT SECTOR
ndia is today the second lar%est producer of cement in )orld )ith an installed
capacity of close to ;DD million tonnes per year. <D J is consumed domestically and
only DJ is exported. Demand is %ro)in% at more than ;> J per annum. !ore than
<> J of production comes from lar%e cement plants. There are a total of ;K> lar%e and
more than KD> small cement manufacturin% units in the country. !ore than ?>J of
the cement-manufacturin% units use modern environment friendly Qdry8 process.
The forms of cement producedE
Ordinary Portland 0ement
Portland Pozzolana 0ement
Portland #la% 0ement
Blended 0ement
!a&or players in ndian cement sectorE
9eidelber%
6afar%e
talcementi
9olcim
Gu&rat 'mbu&a 0ement
'00
Cltratech 0ement
ndia 0ements
0entury 0ements
:aypee Group
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!adras 0ements
Dalima cements
ndia,s per capita cement productionE ;K> k% per annum. +orld avera%e of per
capita cement productionE !ore than A?> k% per annum.
Bottlenecks of 0ement ndustryE
' comparison of the ener%y efficiency of ndian cement industry )ith that of
other developed nations sho)s ndian companies are la%%in%.
*e%ional imbalances in cement production.
9i%h transportation cost involved.
have taken five 0ement #ector 0ompanies )hich are as follo)sE
;. '00
A. C6T*'T209.
K. G*'#!.
I.B*6' #CP2*
D.'!BC:'
;. ACC:
'00 6imited is ndia,s foremost manufacturer of cement and ready mix
concrete )ith a country)ide net)ork of factories and marketin% offices. 2stablished
in ;<KN, '00 has been a pioneer and trendsetter in cement and concrete technolo%y.
'00,s brand name is synonymous )ith cement and en&oys a hi%h level of e$uity in
The Administrative management college, Bangalore. 1#
the ndian market. t is the only cement company that fi%ures in the list of 0onsumer
#uperBrands of ndia. 'mon% the first companies in ndia to include commitment to
environment protection as a corporate ob&ective, '00 has )on several prizes and
accolades for environment friendly measures taken at its plants and mines. The
company has also been felicitated for its acts of %ood corporate citizenship.
'00 )as the first recipient of '##O09'!,s first ever @ational ')ard for
outstandin% performance in promotin% rural and a%ricultural development activities in
;<=N. Decades later, P9D 0hamber of 0ommerce and ndustry selected '00 as
)inner of its Good 0orporate 0itizen ')ard for the year A>>A. Over the years, there
have been many a)ards and felicitations for achievements in *ural and community
development, #afety, 9ealth, Tree plantation, afforestation, clean minin%,
2nvironment a)areness and protection.
A. ULTRATECHE
Cltratech 0ement 6imited, a Grasim subsidiary has an annual capacity of ;=
million tonnes. t manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland 0ement, Portland
Blast "urnace #la% 0ement and Portland Pozzolana 0ement.
CltraTech has five inte%rated plants, five %rindin% units and three terminals F
t)o in ndia and one in #ri 6anka. These include an inte%rated plant and t)o %rindin%
units of the erst)hile @armada 0ement 0ompany 6imited, a subsidiary, )hich has
been amal%amated )ith the company in !ay A>>N.CltraTech is the country1s lar%est
exporter of cement clinker. The company exports over A.D million tonnes per annum,
)hich is about K> per cent of the country1s total exports. The export markets span
countries around the ndian Ocean, 'frica, 2urope and the !iddle 2ast.
The cement division of 6&T )as demer%ed in A>>I after Grasim made the K>
per cent open offer for e$uity shares, %ainin% control over the ne) company,
christened CltraTech. *eady !ix 0oncrete is likely to see substantial %ro)th in the
comin% years. *eco%nizin% the opportunities that this business )ill offer, CltraTech
has commenced settin% up of *eady !ix 0oncrete plants at various places in the
country. CltraTech1s subsidiaries areE Dakshin 0ements 6imited and CltraTech
0eylinco .Private/ 6imited.
K. GRASI*:
Grasim ndustries 6imited, a fla%ship company of the 'ditya Birla Group,
ranks amon% ndia1s lar%est private sector companies, )ith consolidated net revenues
of *s.;I; billion and a consolidated net profit of *s.A> billion."RA>>=/.
#tartin% as a textiles manufacturer in ;<I?, today Grasim1s businesses comprise
viscose staple fiber .S#"/, cement, spon%e iron, chemicals and textiles. ts core
businesses are S#" and cement, )hich contribute to over <> per cent of its venues and
operatin% profits.
The 'ditya Birla Group is the )orld,s lar%est producer of S#", commandin% a
A; per cent %lobal market share. Grasim, )ith an a%%re%ate capacity of A=>,;>> tpa
has a %lobal market share of ;; per cent. t is also the second lar%est producer of
caustic soda .)hich is used in the production of S#"/ in ndia.
n cement.%rey cement and )hite cement/, Grasim alon% )ith its subsidiary
CltraTech 0ement 6td. has a capacity of K> million tpa and is a leadin% cement player
in ndia. n :uly A>>I, Grasim ac$uired a ma&ority stake and mana%ement control in
CltraTech 0ement 6imited. One of the lar%est of its kind in the cement sector, this
ac$uisition catapulted the 'ditya Birla Group to the top of the lea%ue in ndia.
'll of Grasim1s units have earned #O <>>A and ;I>>; certifications.
Product $uality, innovation and eco-friendliness are a hallmark of all the company1s
divisions.
:3 BIRLA SU))ER
t is a unit of Grasim Birla #uper 0ement is a %rindin% unit of ;.D !illion Tons
capacity )ith a modern technolo%y manufacturin% process involves a level of
sophistication & ne) to the 0ement industry.
The technolo%y )as supplied by 1Orupp Polysis7 of Germany such as *oller
Press, Grindin% !ill. 2lectronic Packer enables for automatic packin% & )ei%hin% of
0ement Ba%s. Cnloadin% of ra) material .0linker/, )hich is bein% received from
rail)ay, +a%ons are unloaded by atomised 1+a%on Tippler1. 'll the process of
manufacturin% and packin% are atomized & is controlled throu%h electronic devices &
P60 at 0entral 0ontrol *ooms Plant, Packin% Plant & +a%on Tippler.

Three %rades of Products i.e. OP0 IK Grade, OP0 DK & PP0 are
manufactured. The brand names of these $ualities are 1*a&ashree1, 1Birla #uper1 &
1Birla Plus1 respectively.
The plant po)er is connected to ;KA OS Po)er supply of !#2B %rid &
havin% connected load of ;AND> O+. 'll 2lectrical & nstruments e$uipment is of
latest desi%n & hi%h efficiency.
The unit has )on the @ational ')ard for the 72xcellence in 2ner%y conservation7
from the 0 for.

the A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A consecutively for the outstandin% savin% in ener%y.
The unit has ba%%ed ENati$na A(ar!E for 12ner%y 0onservation & 2ner%y
!ana%ement1 or%anised by 0 for t)ice i.e., A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A.
!ana%ement of 1Birla #uper 0ement1 takes keen interest in reduction of 1ener%y cost1
by implementin% ener%y conservation activities and mana%in% plant operatin% times to
avail the maximum benefits from the #tate 2lectricity Board in 1Po)er factor1, 1@i%ht
0onsumption rebate
& 1Bulk discount1.
"ollo)in% are the ma&or 2nvironmental & #afety 'ctivities done at our plant.
T nclusion of PP0 %rade 0ement to utilize )aste fly ash from po)er plant.
T 'tomized handlin% of fly ash throu%h air ti%ht tankers to avoid fu%itive natural
escape of fly ash to environment.
T Pneumatic unloadin% systems for dust free unloadin% of fly ash from tankers.
T nstallation of additional t)o dust collectors at +5T to avoid dust emission.
T nstallation of %ypsum shed of AUD>>> !T to avoid land contamination.
T Development of rain )ater harvestin% reservoir.
T 0overin% of belt conveyors to avoid dust emission durin% transportation
:=A*BUFA CE*ENT
Am-u9a Cement" )as set up in ;<?N. n the last decade the company has %ro)n
tenfold. The total cement capacity of the company is ;?.D million tonnes.
ts plants are some of the most efficient in the )orld. +ith environment protection
measures that are on par )ith the finest in the developed )orld.
The company1s most distinctive attribute, ho)ever, is its approach to the business.
'mbu&a follo)s a uni$ue home%ro)n philosophy of %ivin% people the authority to set
their o)n tar%ets, and the freedom to achieve their %oals. This simple vision has
created an environment )here there are no limits to excellence, no limits to
efficiency. 'nd has proved to be a po)erful en%ine of %ro)th for the company.
's a result, 'mbu&a is the most profitable cement company in ndia, and one of
the lo)est cost producer of cement in the )orld.
2nvironment policy is built around t)o simple truths. One, no cement plant can
flourish at the cost of the environment. 's one of the countrys lar%est producers of
cement, )ith a lar%e presence around the country, )e have an obli%ation to protect the
environment )e function in.
'lso, as )e discovered, bein% environmentally conscious, almost never interfered
)ith runnin% a profitable business. n fact its $uite the contrary.
Our efforts to achieve )orld standards in environment protection, for instance,
have had the happy outcome of substantially improvin% efficiency and profitability.
The fact is, a cleaner environment isnt &ust better for the people, it reduces )ear and
tear on plants and machinery as )ell. Thus directly contributin% to the bottom line.
Besides dust in cement plants is nothin% but cement itself, )hich )e capture and ba%.
Our approach has made us the one of the )orlds most environment friendly
cement companys. 'nd the most profitable.
63 ANALSIS AND DATA INTER)RETATION:
Cacuati$n:
7= ACC Lt!: *O/EING A/ERAGE
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE
SUM OF 12
MONTHS
AVERA
GE
SUM OF 3
MONTHS
AVERA
GE
Apr-05 365.7
May-
05 30.02!5
"#$-05 37!.!65 115%20
3%73.3
3
"#&-05 %1!.712 115511
3503.6
7
A#'-05 %5%.265 115603
353%.3
3
S(p-05 %76.661 1156!5 3565
O)*-05 %5!.!5 11577
35!5.6
7
N+,-05 %!1.!27 1157!
3626.3
3
-()-05 537.302 115!70
3656.6
7
"a$-06 550.105 116062
367.3
3
F(.-06 5!1.0! 11615% 371
Mar-06 7%6.%5 553.1555 %7.763 1162%% 37%
Apr-06 !20.%61 6%07.!165 533.!!3 11633% 377
May-
06 72.66 6!00.555
575.0%6
3 116%23
307.6
7
"#$-06 7%6.121 7266.711
605.55!
3 116515
33.3
3
"#&-06 15.035 7662.03%
63.502
116606
36.6
7
A#'-06 .531 0!6.3
67%.6!1
7 1166!
3!!.3
3
S(p-06 !50.75! 570.3!
71%.1!!
1167!0 3!30
O)*-06 !%.125 !0!%.573
757.1
1 1162
3!60.6
7
N+,-06 10%.%02 !651.0% 0%.25% 116!7%
3!!1.3
3
-()-06 1071.675 1015.%21
%.75
1 117065
3!021.6
7
"a$-07 1063.631 106!.!%7
!1.57
! 117157
3!052.3
3
F(.-07 1005.3! 11113.2%7
!26.103
! 1172%! 3!03
Mar-07 77%.1%! 111%0.!%6
!2.%12
2 11733! 3!113
Apr-07 773.1! 10!!%.30% !16.1!2 117%2! 3!1%3
May-
07 73.%2! 10!!5.065
!16.255
% 11751
3!172.6
7
"#$-07 35.1%3 110%.07
!23.673
! 117610
3!203.3
3
"#&-07 105!.651 1132.703
!%%.05
6 117701
3!233.6
7
A#'-07 1000.50! 11%%0.61
!53.3!0
1 1177!3
3!26%.3
3
S(p-07 112%.0% 11613.!62
!67.30
2 1175 3!2!5
O)*-07 11%%.627 1177%.%6%
!1.205
3 117!77
3!325.6
7
N+,-07 1061.566 1177.62
!2.302
3 1106!
3!356.3
3
-()-07 1053.10% 1176!.057
!0.75%
11160
3!36.6
7
"a$-0 73.152 1157.57
!6%.1
5 11252
3!%17.3
3
F(.-0 77%.20! 113%7.3!
!%5.616
5 113%% 3!%%
Mar-0 7!.572 11362.21
!%6.!01
11%35
3!%7.3
3
Apr-0 0!.!55 113!.!57
!%!.!13
1 11526
3!50.6
7
May-
0 6!%.103 1121!.631
!3%.!6!
3 11616
3!53.6
7
"#$-0 61.516 11003.00% !16.!17 1170
3!56!.3
3
"#&-0 5%0.7%1 10%%.0!%
73.67%
5 117!!
3!5!!.6
7
A#'-0 5!.755 10073.3% 3!.%%5 11!1
3!630.3
3
S(p-0 601.31! !550.61!
7!5.%
! 11!3 3!661
O)*-0 515.3!2 !21.3%
7%3.%%
7 11!075
3!6!1.6
7
N+,-0 %%1.01! 300.37
6!1.736
% 11!167
3!722.3
3
-()-0 %67.3%2 7715.075 6%2.!22 11!25 3!752.6
! 7
"a$-0! %!!.!3 73%1.53
611.21
1 11!350
3!73.3
3
F(.-0! 5%5.61 7113.25%
5!2.771
2 11!%%2 3!1%
Mar-0! 5%!.%% 673.122
572.760
2 11!532 3!%%
Apr-0! 620.3 663.555
556.!62
! 11!622 3!7%
May-
0! 60.067 666!.51!
555.7!3
3 11!711
3!!03.6
7
"#$-0! 0.!76 65!.!7!
571.66%
! 11!03
3!!3%.3
3
"#&-0! 0.0152 7127.2532
5!3.!37
11!!%
3!!6%.6
7
A#'-0! 23.126 7360.62%2
613.35
% 11!!6
3!!!5.3
3
S(p-0! 02.2!7 7561.6022
630.133
5 12007 %0026
O)*-0! 21.67 767.2
655.657
% 120170
%0056.6
7
N+,-0! 7%.605 175.%7%2
61.2!
5 120262
%007.3
3
-()-0! 3.56% 5%6.6!62
712.22%
7 120353
%0117.6
7
"a$-10 !22.207 !6.!732
7%7.%1%
% 120%%5
%01%.3
3
F(.-10 6.2% !30!.6032
775.00
3 120537 %017!
Mar-10 !70.0! !730.2532
10.5%
% 120627 %020!
83=RSI
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-05 365.7
May-05 30.02!5
1%.32!
5
"#$-05 37!.!65 0.06%5
"#&-05 %1!.712 3!.7%7
A#'-05 %5%.265 3%.553
S(p-05 %76.661 22.3!6
O)*-05 %5!.!5 16.711
N+,-05 %!1.!27 31.!77
-()-05 537.302 %5.375
"a$-06 550.105 12.03
F(.-06 5!1.0! %0.!%
Mar-06 7%6.%5
155.36
1
Apr-06 !20.%61
17%.01
1
May-06 72.66 %7.7!3
"#$-06 7%6.121 126.5%7


SUM
571.536
5
1!1.115
5

AVERAGE
3.102%
3
12.7%10
3

RS 2.!!05

RSI
!6.76%!
5
2"
MONTH
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"#&-06 15.035
A#'-06 .531 73.%!6
S(p-06 !50.75! 62.22
O)*-06 !%.125 33.366
N+,-06 10%.%02 6%.277
-()-06 1071.675 23.273
"a$-07 1063.631 .0%%
F(.-07 1005.3! 5.2%2
Mar-07 77%.1%! 231.2%
Apr-07 773.1! 0.33
May-07 73.%2! !!.61
"#$-07 35.1%3 3.26
"#&-07 105!.651
22%.50
A#'-07 1000.50! 5!.1%2

S(p-07 112%.0%
123.53
1

SUM 70%.2! 3!5.2%

AVERAGE %6.!526
26.3522
7

RS
1.7172
!

RSI 6%.05
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
O)*-07 11%%.627
N+,-07 1061.566 3.061
-()-07 1053.10% .%62
"a$-0 73.152 17!.!52
F(.-0 77%.20! !.!%3
Mar-0 7!.572 15.363
Apr-0 0!.!55 20.33
May-0 6!%.103 115.52
"#$-0 61.516 75.57
"#&-0 5%0.7%1 77.775
A#'-0 5!.755 %!.01%
S(p-0 601.31! 11.56%
O)*-0 515.3!2 5.!27
N+,-0 %%1.01! 7%.373
-()-0 %67.3%2 26.323

SUM 122.6%7
7!!.!3
2

AVERAGE
.176%6
7
53.32

RS
0.01022
1

RSI
1.01175
!
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"a$-0! %!!.!3
F(.-0! 5%5.61 %5.6
Mar-0! 5%!.%% 3.3
Apr-0! 620.3 70.!%
May-0! 60.067 5!.67!
"#$-0! 0.!76 12.!0!
"#&-0! 0.0152 0.!60
A#'-0! 23.126 15.110
S(p-0! 02.2!7 20.2!
O)*-0! 21.67 1!.31
N+,-0! 7%.605 73.073
-()-0! 3.56% !.!5!
"a$-10 !22.207 3.6%3
F(.-10 6.2% 35.!67
Mar-10 !70.0! 3.5

*$vin+ Avera+e
7= ACC:
S'$rt Term *$vin+ Avera+e:


SUM
600.!!
130.2!

AVERAGE
%0.065!
!
.721!
7

RS
%.5!367
7

RSI
2.1226
7
31
n the above chart blue color sho)s the closin% price and red color
sho)s the !ovin% avera%e.i.e. Kmonths/
!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip.
n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates
the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% ,
"ebruary , :uly& October.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of
the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% 'pril, !ay &
December
The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to :anuary.
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'u%ust to @ovember.
L$n+ Term *$vin+ Avera+e:
This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e.
n the above chart, -ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon%
term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;Amonths !S/.
n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the
possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin%
December & October.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the
further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% #eptember & :anuary.
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from October to :anuary.
The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to 'u%ust .
ULTRATECH
*O/ING A/ERAGE
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE
SUM OF 12
MONTHS AVG
SUM OF 3
MONTHS AVG
Apr-05 355.1%
May-05 337.!6
"#$-05 327.613 1020.73!
3%0.2%6
3
"#&-05 370.57 1036.16
3%5.3!5
3
A#'-05 %06.115 110%.315 36.105
S(p-05 %51.!7 122.6 %0!.56
O)*-05 %25.% 123.%!3 %27.31
N+,-05 %%.335 1325.713
%%1.!0%
3
-()-05 %35.!36 130!.671 %36.557
"a$-06 %.1!7 1372.%6
%57.%!
3
F(.-06 56!.171 1%!3.30% %!7.76
Mar-06 616.3% 5233.2!2
%36.107
7 167%.202
55.067
3
Apr-06 767.36 56%5.53
%70.%61
5 1!53.3!1
651.130
3
May-06 71.711 6026.263
502.1
6 2102.!31 700.!77
"#$-06 6%%.52 63%3.232
52.602
7 2130.67!
710.226
3
"#&-06 70%.! 6677.535
556.%61
3 206.13
6!.3!%
3
A#'-06 751.37! 7022.7!!
55.233
3 2100.51
700.23
7
S(p-06 2.3%5 73!!.166
616.5!7
2 22%.61% 761.53
O)*-06 77.75 751.516 65%.2!3 2%57.%7% 1!.15
N+,-06 !3.2 2!7.001
6!1.%16
25!!.!15
66.63
3
-()-06 !!!.32 60.35
73.365
% 2770.! !23.63
"a$-07 10.!3 !%61.01
7.%23
% 2!2.033 !!%.011
F(.-07 1005.%3% !!7.3%%
2%.77
7 30!3.6%7
1031.21
6
Mar-07 7.731 1006!.2%1
3!.103
% 23.05
!61.01!
3
Apr-07 76!.1 10071.035
3!.252
! 2563.3%5
5%.%%
3
May-07 16.16 1016!.1%
%7.%2
3 237%.727
7!1.575
7
"#$-07 22.!61 103%7.51! 62.2!3 2%0.!57 02.!5
3 7
"#&-07 !26.16 1056.7!7
0.733
1 2565.!%5 55.315
A#'-07 !1.!56 1070!.37%
!2.%%7
26%1.05
0.361
7
S(p-07 1006.773 107.02
!07.316
22%.!7
!%1.632
3
O)*-07 105.3! 1106.!1
!22.%07
6 2!57.56 !5.56
N+,-07 !!3.% 1116.%71
!30.705
! 305!.012
101!.67
1
-()-07 !.63% 11157.75
!2!.15
% 30%0.73
1013.62
%
"a$-0 !02.37 10!71.72!
!1%.310
2%.71
!61.623
7
F(.-0 76.!23 10%3.21
!03.601
5 276.3!% !22.7!
Mar-0 27.036 101.523
!06.7!3
6 2606.7!6 6.!32
Apr-0 7!3.605 10!05.!% !0.2! 2%!7.56%
32.521
3
May-0 6.72 10777.!1%
!.15!
5 230!.%23
76!.07
7
"#$-0 611.366 10566.31!
0.526
6 20!3.753
6!7.!17
7
"#&-0 570.775 10210.!26
50.!10
5 170.!23 623.6%1
A#'-0 607.677 !!26.6%7
27.220
6 17!.1 5!6.606
S(p-0 563.!35 !%3.0!
7!0.317
% 17%2.37
50.7!5
7
O)*-0 %07.06 32.03
736.002
5 157.672 526.22%
N+,-0 321.511 160.1%1
60.011
12!2.506
%30.35
3
-()-0 336.%5 750.352 625.6!6 1065.%16
355.13
7
"a$-0! 3!.6!2 6!!5.207
52.!33
! 10%.0%
3%!.3%!
3
F(.-0! %22.%76 65%0.76
5%5.063
3 11%!.013
33.00%
3
Mar-0! %!.%7 6203.211
516.!3%
3 1301.655 %33.5
Apr-0! 555.0 5!65.%1%
%!7.117
1%67.771 %!.257
May-0! 623.677 5!00.30!
%!1.6!2
% 166.!72 556.32%
"#$-0! 715.513 600%.%56
500.371
3 1!%.!! 631.666
"#&-0! 7%6.%! 610.17
515.01%
2 205.67!
6!5.226
3
A#'-0! 7%5.221 6317.71% 526.%76 2207.223 735.7%1
2
S(p-0! 757.127 6510.!06
5%2.575
5 22%.37
7%!.612
3
O)*-0! 0!.7%5 6!13.5!1
576.132
6 2312.0!3
770.6!7
7
N+,-0! 76!.115 7361.1!5
613.%32
! 2335.!7
77.662
3
-()-0! !20.0%5 7!%%.3!5
662.032
! 2%!.!05
32.!6
3
"a$-10 !73.6 52.571
710.71%
3 2663.02 7.676
F(.-10 !!3.275 !0!!.37
75.20
27.1 !62.3!6
Mar-10 1110.1 !71!.!3
0!.!!
6 3077.2%3
1025.7%
RSI
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-05 355.1%
May-05 337.!6 17.15%
"#$-05 327.613 10.373
"#&-05 370.57 %2.!7%
A#'-05 %06.115 35.52
S(p-05 %51.!7 %5.63
O)*-05 %25.% 26.57
N+,-05 %%.335 22.!35
-()-05 %35.!36 12.3!!
"a$-06 %.1!7 52.261
F(.-06 56!.171 0.!7%
Mar-06 616.3% %7.663
Apr-06 767.36
150.55
2
May-06 71.711 %.675
"#$-06 6%%.52 7%.12!
SUM %7.75 1!.30
AVERAGE
31.!166
7
12.6205
3
RS
2.52!%
RSI
71.662!
%
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"#&-06 70%.!
A#'-06 751.37! %6.%!
S(p-06 2.3%5 76.!66
O)*-06 77.75 %!.%05
N+,-06 !3.2 16.07
-()-06 !!!.32 105.5
"a$-07 10.!3 !.573
F(.-07 1005.%3% 3.%5!
Mar-07 7.731
216.70
3
Apr-07 76!.1 1!.551
May-07 16.16 %7.636
"#$-07 22.!61 6.1%5
"#&-07 !26.16
103.20
7
A#'-07 !1.!56 3%.212
S(p-07 1006.773
11%.1
7
SUM 655.0
353.!2
5
AVERAGE
%3.7205
3 23.5!5
RS
1.52!5
RSI
6%.!%6
6
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
O)*-07 105.3!
N+,-07 !!3.% 65.%3!
-()-07 !.63% %.766
"a$-0 !02.37 5.7!7
F(.-0 76.!23 25.!1%
Mar-0 27.036 %!.7
Apr-0 7!3.605 33.%31
May-0 6.72
10%.2
3
"#$-0 611.366 77.%16
"#&-0 570.775 %0.5!1
A#'-0 607.677 36.!02
S(p-0 563.!35 %3.7%2
O)*-0 %07.06
156.7
5
N+,-0 321.511 5.5%!
-()-0 336.%5 15.33%
SUM 52.236 77%.23
AVERAGE 3.%2%
51.6153
3
RS
0.067%6
RSI
6.32037
7
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"a$-0! 3!.6!2
F(.-0! %22.%76 32.7%
Mar-0! %!.%7 67.011
Apr-0! 555.0 66.321
May-0! 623.677 67.6!
"#$-0! 715.513 !1.36
"#&-0! 7%6.%! 30.!76
A#'-0! 7%5.221 1.26
S(p-0! 757.127 11.!06
O)*-0! 0!.7%5 52.61
N+,-0! 76!.115 %0.63
-()-0! !20.0%5 150.!3
"a$-10 !73.6 53.23
F(.-10 !!3.275 1!.%07
Mar-10 1110.1
116.2
5
SUM 762.306 %1.!
AVERAGE 50.20% 2.7!32
RS
1.1!%3
3
RSI !%.7!
8= Utratec': *O/EING A/ERAGE
n the above chart, V axis indicates month and the R axis indicates the
price of scrip.
n the above chart, -ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color
indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e.,Kmonths !S/.
n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e
indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is
%enerated durin% :anuary, October & December.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility
of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% :uly &
@ovember.
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :une to :anuary.
This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin%
avera%e.
indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;Amonths !S/.
%enerated durin% December,& :anuary.
of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% :uly, !ay
& :anuary.
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to :anuary.
GRASI*
*O/ING A/ERAGE
MONTH
S CLOSING
SUM OF 12
MONTHS AVG
SUM OF 3
MONTHS AVG
Apr-05 1205.62
May-05 1135.2
"#$-05 10!7.57 3%3.%!5 11%6.165
"#&-05 1112.!15 33%5.72 1115.26067
A#'-05 1273.2%1 3%3.7%3 1161.2%767
S(p-05 1335.712 3721.6 12%0.62267
O)*-05 1206.03 31%.!!1 1271.66367
N+,-05 125.0! 326.% 1275.616
-()-05 1370.511 361.6%7 127.21567
"a$-06 1%36.01 %0!1.627 1363.7567
F(.-06 1612.16 %%1!.3%5 1%73.115
Mar-06 1!16.51 15!7.362 1332.202 %!65.352 1655.11733
Apr-06 227.231 1705!.!65 1%21.663 507.565 1!35.55
May-06 2131.03% 1055.71! 150%.6%33 6325.73 210.5!%33
"#$-06 1761.%%6 171!.57 155!.!6% 6170.711 2056.!0367
"#&-06 1!6!.61% 1!576.277 1631.356% 562.0!% 1!5%.03133
A#'-06 212.%%3 20%5.%7! 1707.1233 5!13.503 1!71.16767
S(p-06 2%00.336 21550.103 17!5.%1! 6552.3!3 21%.131
O)*-06 261%.23 22!5.3% 1!13.1!57 71!7.062 23!!.02067
N+,-06 2725.2%3 2%3!.%!3 2033.207 773!.62 257!.!5%
-()-06 2720.5 257%.562 21%5.7135 060.106 266.702
"a$-07 232.57 271%5.11% 2262.0!2 27.3!3 275!.%6%33
F(.-07 2626.07 215.35 23%6.5321 17!.237 2726.%1233
Mar-07 202.% 232%.707 2360.3!23 75%1.%!7 2513.3233
Apr-07 22!!.265 23%5.7%1 2362.1%51 700.1!2 2336.06%
May-07 2%!0.26 270%.!!3 23!2.02 672.3!1 22!0.7!7
"#$-07 2%5!.233 2!%02.7 2%50.2317 72%.7% 2%16.26133
"#&-07 263.0! 302!6.255 252%.67! 712.60 260%.20267
A#'-07 25!.!11 30!73.723 251.1%36 12.233 2727.%11
S(p-07 3267.263 31%0.65 2653.375 !!0.263 2!!6.75%33
O)*-07 366%.025 32!0.3!2 27%0.66 !7!1.1!! 3263.733
N+,-07 3675.!% 33%1.0!7 220.0!1% 10607.236 3535.7%533
-()-07 3670.%2% 3%7!0.!%1 2!!.2%51 11010.3!7 3670.13233
"a$-0 3266.77 35225.15 2!35.%2! 10613.15! 3537.71!67
F(.-0 263.657 35%62.72 2!55.2273 !00.6 3266.!56
Mar-0 2731.006 36110.!% 300!.2%12 61.%5 2!53.1667
Apr-0 250.!0 363!2.537 3032.711% 175.571 2725.1!033
May-0 223.3 3616.0! 3015.507% 75!5.752 2531.!1733
"#$-0 2152.317 357!.173 2!!.!311 7017.063 233!.021
"#&-0 1752.%65 3%76.5%! 2!7.37!1 61.62 2062.7333
A#'-0 1!.5!3 33!7.231 22%.76!3 5!3.375 1!6%.%533
S(p-0 1!22.3%3 32552.311 2712.6!26 5663.%01 17.0033
O)*-0 1336.15 30225.101 251.75% 52%7.751 17%!.25033
N+,-0 !%%.76 27%!%.02! 22!1.16!1 %20%.03% 1%01.3%%67
-()-0 1116.236 2%!3!.%1 207.3201 33!7.!27 1132.6%233
"a$-0! 12%6.0!3 22!1!.1%7 1!0!.!2! 3307.205 1102.%0167
F(.-0! 1356.253 21%11.7%3 17%.311! 371.52 123!.52733
Mar-0! 1%72.303 20153.0% 167!.%2 %07%.6%! 135.21633
Apr-0! 16%5.506 1!217.63 1601.%6! %%7%.062 1%!1.35%
May-0! 1!6.71 1!20.51 1576.70!2 510%.51! 1701.50633
"#$-0! 2325.5! 1!0!3.72 15!1.1%5 5!57.05 1!5.!35
"#&-0! 2603.763 1!!%5.0 1662.0! 6!16.062 2305.35%
A#'-0! 2655.73 20612.27 1717.6!2 755.135 252.3733
S(p-0! 2720.265 21%10.1!2 17%.127 7!7!.11 265!.!37
O)*-0! 23%2.10 22%15.%5 167.!571 771.156 2572.7167
N+,-0! 225.3 23755.!!7 1!7!.666% 73%7.761 2%%!.25367
-()-0! 2%1.3 2505.5!! 20.2166 70%6.33% 23%.77
"a$-10 2701.!%5 2651%.%51 220!.5376 7%06.171 2%6.72367
F(.-10 2663.123 2721.321 231.%%3% 773.!06 25!%.63533
Mar-10 2%.76 2!1!7.77 2%33.1%2 213.2 2737.!%267
RSI
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-05 1205.62
May-05 1135.2 70.3%
"#$-05 10!7.57 37.6!3
"#&-05 1112.!15 15.32
A#'-05 1273.2%1
160.32
6
S(p-05 1335.712 62.%71
O)*-05 1206.03
12!.67
%
N+,-05 125.0! 7!.06
-()-05 1370.511 5.%13
"a$-06 1%36.01 65.507
F(.-06 1612.16
176.7!
Mar-06 1!16.51
303.70
2
Apr-06 227.231 361.71
3
May-06 2131.03%
1%7.1!
7
"#$-06 1761.%%6
36!.5
SUM
1310.31
75%.5
AVERAGE
7.35%5
3 50.3
RS
1.73667
1
RSI
63.%5!2
5
MONH
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"#&-06 1!6!.61%
A#'-06 212.%%3
212.2
!
S(p-06 2%00.336
217.!
3
O)*-06 261%.23
213.!%
7
N+,-06 2725.2%3 110.!6
-()-06 2720.5 %.663
"a$-07 232.57 111.!!
F(.-07 2626.07
206.%
3
Mar-07 202.%
5%3.2%
7
Apr-07 22!!.265
216.%2
5
May-07 2%!0.26
1!1.02
1
"#$-07 2%5!.233 31.053
"#&-07 263.0!
%03.5
6
A#'-07 25!.!11 3.17
S(p-07 3267.263
%07.35
2
SUM
206.27
3 7.62%
AVERAGE
13!.0%
!
52.57%!
3
RS 2.6%5%6
RSI
72.566
2
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
O)*-07 366%.025
N+,-07 3675.!% 11.!23
-()-07 3670.%2% 5.52%
"a$-0 3266.77
%03.63
7
F(.-0 263.657 %03.13
Mar-0 2731.006
132.65
1
Apr-0 250.!0
150.0!
May-0 223.3 2!7.07

"#$-0 2152.317
131.52
1
"#&-0 1752.%65
3!!.5
2
A#'-0 1!.5!3
236.12
S(p-0 1!22.3%3 66.25

O)*-0 1336.15
55.52
N+,-0 !%%.76
3!1.!3
!
-()-0 1116.236 171.36

SUM %1!.%11 2!67.2

AVERAGE
27.!607
3
1!7.13
3

RS
0.1%13%
!

RSI
12.3%3
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"a$-0! 12%6.0!3
F(.-0! 1356.253 110.16
Mar-0! 1%72.303 116.05
Apr-0! 16%5.506
173.20
3
May-0! 1!6.71 3%1.20
%
"#$-0! 2325.5!
33.7
!
"#&-0! 2603.763
27.17
%
A#'-0! 2655.73 52.02
S(p-0! 2720.265 6%.%2
O)*-0! 23%2.10
37.15
7
N+,-0! 225.3 56.72
-()-0! 2%1.3 133.%5
"a$-10 2701.!%5
23.10
7
F(.-10 2663.123 3.22
Mar-10 2%.76
15.63
7
SUM
2076.36
6 %73.6!!
AVERAGE
13.%2%
%
31.57!!
3
RS
%.3330
2
RSI
1.%2%0
%
2= GRASI*:
price of scrip.
indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., K months !S/.
%enerated durin% December, October & :une.
of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% :uly,
may ,& 'u%ust
"rom :anuary to October there is a risin% trend and from !arch to
December there is a fallin% trend.
This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin%
avera%e.
indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;A months !S/.
%enerated durin% 'u%ust, October and :une.
of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% !arch &
:anuary.
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from !ay to October.
The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% in the month of !arch to
:anuary..
BIRLA SU)ER
*O/ING A/ERAGE
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE
SUM OF 12
MONTHS AVG
SUM OF 3
MONTHS AVG
Apr-06 6.23
May-06 6!.17!
"#$-06 52.503 1!.!65
63.3216
7
"#&-06 51.657 2%1.622
0.5%06
7
A#'-06 55.%11 22.75 76.25
S(p-06 5%.!6! 21%.5%
71.5133
3
O)*-06 5%.7!5 216.32
72.2773
3
N+,-06 %.2%3 213.%1
71.13!3
3
-()-06 %5.22 203.2! 67.763
"a$-07 5%.077 202.3!7
67.%656
7
F(.-07 50.102 1!7.70% 65.!013
3
Mar-07 %3. 6%.3!
5%.032%
2 1!3.3%!
6%.%%!6
7
Apr-07 50.2 630.306 52.5255 1!.267 66.0!
May-07 51.675 612.02
51.066
3 1!5.65
65.23
3
"#$-07 56.03 616.32!
51.3607
5 201.7!3
67.26%3
3
"#&-07 56.1! 620.62 51.735 21%.0!5 71.365
A#'-07 50.5! 616.0%1
51.3367
5 21%.%5 71.%!5
S(p-07 56.5!2 617.66% 51.%72 21!.%02 73.13%
O)*-07 5!.5 622.36!
51.6%0
222.72
7%.2!06
7
N+,-07 76.%2 650.5%6
5%.2121
7 2%3.102 1.03%
F(.-0 71.7 676.!6%
56.%136
7 26%.212
.0706
7
Mar-0 5!.616 62.503
56.752
5 267.236
!.076
7
Apr-0 75.3%7 707.7% 5.!7! 23.03 !%.361
May-0 73.035 736.!5
61.%07!
2 27!.6!
!3.2326
7
"#$-0 67.%3 75%.17
62.%1
7 275.%1 !1.27
"#&-0 63.!73 766.%76 63.73 27!.3
!3.27!3
3
A#'-0 71.05 71.%!6
65.12%6
7 275.5%1 !1.%7
S(p-0 63.76 7!.12
65.7651
7 266.32 .7!%
O)*-0 %2.727 71.31!
65.10!!
2 2%1.626 0.5%2
N+,-0 31.63 756.5!
63.0%!1
7 20!.516
6!.36
7
-()-0 31.03 72.12
60.6766
7 16!.%!6
56.%!6
7
"a$-0! 33.0%5 6%.7%5
57.0620
13.665
%6.2216
7
F(.-0! 33.355 6%6.%
53.666
7 12!.2!3
%3.0!76
7
Mar-0! 33.%62 620.2%6
51.671
7 130.!2
%3.6306
7
Apr-0! %3.1!7 5.0!6 %!.00 1%3.05!
%7.663
3
May-0! 52.15 567.2%6 %7.2705 162.1!!
5%.0663
3
"#$-0! 63.%2 563.13
%6.!31!
2 1!2.26% 6%.0
"#&-0! 5.56 55.066 %6.5055 217.65
72.5526
7
A#'-0! 66.2!2 553.30 %6.10! 2%0.753 0.251
S(p-0! 75.35 56%.72
%7.0651
7 263.!1
7.!726
7
O)*-0! 7.135 600.1!
50.015
3 27.633
!2.776
7
N+,-0! 77.77 6%6.20%
53.503
3 2!7.65% !!.21
-()-0! 1.361 6!6.535
5.0%%5
312.723 10%.2%1
"a$-10 !.!52 753.%%2
62.76
3 327.325
10!.10
3
F(.-10 72.!% 7!3.027
66.055
322.13
107.376
7
Mar-10 72.23 32.3
6!.3656
7 317.076 105.6!2
RSI
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-06 6.23
May-06 6!.17! 0.!6
"#$-06 52.503 16.676
"#&-06 51.657 0.%6
A#'-06 55.%11 3.75%
S(p-06 5%.!6! 0.%%2
O)*-06 5%.7!5 0.17%
N+,-06 %.2%3 6.552
-()-06 %5.22 2.!61
"a$-07 5%.077 .7!5
F(.-07 50.102 3.!75
Mar-07 %3. 6.21%
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-07 50.2
May-07 51.675 1.%75
"#$-07 56.03 %.355
"#&-07 56.1! 0.16
A#'-07 50.5! 5.6
S(p-07 56.5!2 6.002
O)*-07 5!.5 2.!0
N+,-07 76.%2 16.!2
F(.-0 71.7 %.72
Mar-0 5!.616 12.0%

SUM 31.2 22.%0%

AVERAGE 3.12 2.2%0%

RS
1.%202
2

RSI 5.62

SUM 13.%%5 37.%

AVERAGE
1.120%1
7
0.5173
3

RS
2.16366
3

RSI 6.3!
51
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-0 75.3%7
May-0 73.035 2.312
"#$-0 67.%3 5.552
"#&-0 63.!73 3.51
A#'-0 71.05 7.077
S(p-0 63.76 7.17%
O)*-0 %2.727 21.1%!
N+,-0 31.63 10.6%
-()-0 31.03 0.33
"a$-0! 33.0%5 2.015
F(.-0! 33.355 0.31
Mar-0! 33.%62 0.107

SUM !.50! 50.561

AVERAGE
0.7!2%1
7
%.213%1
7

RS 0.107

RSI
15.2!
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-0! %3.1!7
May-0! 52.15 .!
"#$-0! 63.%2 11.235
"#&-0! 5.56 %.56%
A#'-0! 66.2!2 7.%36
S(p-0! 75.35 !.05
O)*-0! 7.135 2.75
N+,-0! 77.77 0.25
-()-0! 1.361 3.%%
"a$-10 !.!52 .5!1
F(.-10 72.!% 17.012
Mar-10 72.23 0.117
BIRLA SUPER
MOVING AVERAGE

SUM %2.!6 21.!51

AVERAGE
3.5216
7
1.2!2
5

RS
1.!527
1

RSI
66.1!6%
7
53
Short term moving average

n the above chart WV, axis sho)s the months and WR, axis sho)s the price
scrip
n the above chart Blue colour indicates the closin% Price and red sho)s the
avera%e
possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated in "ebruary and
December
of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated 'u%ust and
'pril.
The movin% avera%e continuously fallin% in :uly and December
The !ovin% avera%e continuously risin% in 'pril and December
Long term

This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e.
n the above chart, -ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon%
term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;>months !S/.
possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% 'pril,&
December.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the
further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% 'u%ust, &,'pril
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'pril to December
A*BUFA CE*ENT
*O/ING A/ERAGE
M0NTH
CLOSING
PRICE
SUM OF 12
MONTHS AVG
SUM OF 3
MONTHS AVG
Apr-05 %1!.!07
May-05 %60.1!7
"#$-05 2!!.5! 117!.6!3 3!3.231
"#&-05 61.!7 21.756 273.!17
A#'-05 110.33 15%1.! 513.!63
S(p-05 71.7%0% 131%.0%0% %3.0135
O)*-05 71.0%25 1323.112! %%1.0376
N+,-05 77.075 21!.70% 73.2!013
-()-05 1.0312 22!.1612 76.3727
"a$-06 .11 2%6.22!32 2.076%%
F(.-06 6.%605 255.60232 5.20077
Mar-06 !6.1 2!!%.3%672
2%!.52
! 271.%515 !0.%33
Apr-06 11%.377 26.1672
22%.06
1 2!7.715 !!.23!5
May-06 106.1205 233%.7%022
1!%.561
7 317.375 105.7!2
"#$-06 !1.!06 2127.05722
177.25%
312.%035 10%.13%5
"#&-06 103.311! 216.3!!12
10.6!!
! 301.33% 100.%%61
A#'-06 10!.1% 10!7.20!12
!1.%3%0
! 30%.357! 101.%526
S(p-06 115.12% 11%0.5!272
!5.0%!3
! 327.575! 10!.1!2
O)*-06 120.5!5 11!0.1%522
!!.177
7 3%%.5! 11%.!53
N+,-06 13%.7523 12%7.1002
103.!%
2 370.%713 123.%!0%
-()-06 13.!25 1305.7032
10.0
6 3!%.2723 131.%2%1
"a$-07 1%1.05 135.672
113.223
2 %1%.7623 13.25%1
F(.-07 133.355 1%05.5727
117.131
1 %13.365 137.73
Mar-07 107.%%7 1%16.137
11.011
6 31.7 127.2!57
Apr-07 111.!52 1%13.7137
117.0!
5 352.75% 117.5%7
May-07 11.7 1%26.3732
11.6%
% 33.17! 112.7263
"#$-07 11%.16! 1%%.6362
120.71!
7 3%%.!01 11%.!67
"#&-07 130.27 1%76.1513 123.012 363.776 121.257
6
A#'-07 12!.!6 1%!6.!!73
12%.7%!
37%.!2 12%.!!%
S(p-07 1%3.527 1525.%003
127.116
7 %0%.3% 13%.7
O)*-07 1%6.11% 1551.6167
12!.301
% %20.32%% 1%0.101
N+,-07 1%7.0!0! 1563.!553
130.32!
6 %37.%2!3 1%5.0!
-()-07 1%.!5 1573.!1! 131.16 %%2.7!1 1%7.5!73
"a$-0 131.1! 156%.653
130.37
%27.7!!% 1%2.5!!
F(.-0 11.73 1550.036
12!.16!
7 3!!.%%65 133.1%
Mar-0 121.53 156%.11!
130.3%3
3 372.07 12%.02!
Apr-0 116.762 156.!2!
130.7%%
2 357.03 11!.01
May-0 106.7 1557.01!
12!.751
7 3%5.162 115.05%
"#$-0 5.5% 152.3!0
127.365
! 30!.172 103.0573
"#&-0 7!.3! 1%76.!52
123.07!
% 271.7!! !0.5!!67
A#'-0 3.3!7 1%30.363 11!.1!7 2%.326 2.77533
S(p-0 1.602 136.%3
11%.036
6 2%%.3 1.%6267
O)*-0 61.025 122.652%
106.7
7 226.02% 75.3%133
N+,-0 56.%02 11!1.!635
!!.3302
! 1!!.02! 66.3%3
-()-0 6%.%!2 1107.566
!2.2!71
7 11.!1! 60.63!67
"a$-0! 70.5 10%6.327
7.1!3!
2 1!1.%7% 63.2%67
F(.-0! 70.226 !!7.15
3.1512
5 205.2! 6.%3267
Mar-0! 6.2 !%%.565
7.7137
5 20!.06 6!.6!533
Apr-0! 7.!26 !06.72!
75.5607
5 217.%32 72.%7733
May-0! 3.!55 3.1%
73.6511
7 231.161 77.05367
"#$-0! !5.5!3 !3.67
7%.%!
2 25.%7% 6.15
"#&-0! !6.17 !10.656 75. 275.726 !1.!067
A#'-0! 101.50% !2.763
77.3!6!
2 2!3.275 !7.7533
S(p-0! !!.23 !%6.3!1
7.65!
2 2!6.!12 !.!7067
O)*-0! !3.5%5 !7.!11 1.575! 2!%.27! !.0!3
2
N+,-0! 7.2%5 100!.75%
%.1%61
7 20.02 !3.3%
-()-0! !7. 10%3.15
6.!2!1
7 27.67 !2.!267
"a$-10 101.035 1073.605
!.%670
26.16 !5.3!33
F(.-10 10!.222 1112.601
!2.7167
5 30.1%5 102.715
Mar-10 115.5!7 115!.!1
!6.65!
3 325.5% 10.61
RSI
M0NT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
Apr-05 %1!.!07
May-05 %60.1!7 %0.2!
"#$-05 2!!.5!
160.60
"#&-05 61.!7
237.61
!
A#'-05 110.33
111.3
6
S(p-05 71.7%0%
110.5
!
O)*-05 71.0%25 0.6!7!
N+,-05 77.075 6.0%5
-()-05 1.0312
3.!%%3
2
"a$-06 .11
7.071
F(.-06 6.%605 1.6%!5

Mar-06 !6.1
10.%20
5
Apr-06 11%.377 17.%!6
May-06 106.1205 .2565
"#$-06 !1.!06
1%.21%
5

SUM
1203.63
%
1531.63
5

AVERAGE
0.2%22
7 102.10!

RS
0.75%
!

RSI
%%.00%2
2
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"#&-06 103.311!
A#'-06 10!.1% 5.21
S(p-06 115.12% 5.!%
O)*-06 120.5!5 5.%71
N+,-06 13%.7523
1%.157
3
-()-06 13.!25 %.1727
"a$-07 1%1.05 2.16
F(.-07 133.355 7.73
Mar-07 107.%%7 25.!0
Apr-07 111.!52 %.505
May-07 11.7 6.2
"#$-07 11%.16! %.611
"#&-07 130.27 16.65
A#'-07 12!.!6 0.%1
S(p-07 1%3.527 13.5%1

SUM 7!.3051 3!.0!

AVERAGE
5.2700
7 2.606

RS
2.027
2

RSI 66.!
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
O)*-07 1%6.11%
N+,-07 1%7.0!0! 0.27!5
-()-07 1%.!5 1.7!6
"a$-0 131.1!
17.070
5
F(.-0 11.73 13.01
Mar-0 121.53 2.7!2
Apr-0 116.762 %.76
May-0 106.7 !.!2
"#$-0 5.5% 21.33
"#&-0 7!.3! 6.151
A#'-0 3.3!7 %.00
S(p-0 1.602 1.7!5
O)*-0 61.025 20.577
N+,-0 56.%02 %.623
-()-0 6%.%!2 .0!

SUM 16.!61 !!.275

AVERAGE
1.13120
7
6.61!16
7

RS
0.170!
!

RSI 1%.5!5
The Administrative management college, Bangalore. $

SUM 61.576 16.55!

AVERAGE
%.10506
7
1.103!3
3

RS
3.715
2

RSI 7.07
MONT
H
CLOSING
PRICE GAIN LOSS
"a$-0! 70.5
F(.-0! 70.226 0.35%
Mar-0! 6.2 1.!%6
Apr-0! 7.!26 10.6%6
May-0! 3.!55 5.02!
"#$-0! !5.5!3 11.63
"#&-0! !6.17 0.55
A#'-0! 101.50% 5.326
S(p-0! !!.23 2.27%
O)*-0! !3.5%5 5.65
N+,-0! 7.2%5 6.3
-()-0! !7. 10.6%3
"a$-10 101.035 3.1%7
F(.-10 10!.222 .17
Mar-10 115.5!7 6.375
1
AMBUJA CEMENT
MOVING AVERAGE
Short term

price of scrip.
indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e.,Kmonths !S/.
%enerated durin% :une,:uly, 'u%ust
of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% !ay &
#eptember.
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.
Long term

price of scrip.
indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e.,;Amonths !S/.
%enerated durin% ,:uly &, 'u%ust
of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% !ay &
#eptember.
The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.
:3 Summary $& .in!in+"4 Su++e"ti$n" 5 C$ncu"i$n:
.INDINGS
ACC:
n the chart, movin% avera%e .short term & lon% term/ )as fluctuatin% month
by month. t )as risin% from :uly to October & fallin% from november to
:anuary.
Durin% the month of 'pril the shares )ere overbou%ht, so it is the ri%ht time to
sell the share.
Durin% the month of :anuary the shares )ere oversold, so it is ri%ht time to
buy the share
GRASI*:
The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months, sho)s t sho)s risin% trend
from December to October. t sho)s fallin% trend from @ovember to :anuary.
The :anuary month )as overbou%ht re%ionB the investor can sell the scrip.
The !arch month )as over sold re%ion, the investor can buy the scri.
ULTRATECH:
The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months )as risin% from 'pril to
December. t )as fallin% from October to :anuary.
The 'pril !onth )as overbou%ht re%ionB the investor can sell the scrip.
The :anuary month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.
BIRLA SU)ER:
December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December.
The December !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.
The #eptember month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.
A*BUFA:
December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December.
The 'u%ust !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip.
The :une month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.
SUGGESTIONS
t is very difficult for an investor to select any scrip for investment in stock
market. Before investin%, the investor should %o for a detailed study of the
scrip, )hich includesE "undamental analysis of the company & its return for
past K years.
ACC
'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from October to
:anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une #o, in future the investor
is been advised to sell the share.
'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*#/, the *# lies bet)een ?> & <>
re%ion & is been in decreasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come
do)n very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the share.
GRASI*
:anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une so, in future the investor
'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*#/, the *# lies bet)een NK & ?;
re%ion & is been in increasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come
up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the share.
ULTRATECH:
:anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in &une #o, in future the investor
'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*#/, the *# lies bet)een NI & <I
BIRLA SU)ER:
'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from :une to
December & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in #eptember #o, in future the
investor is been advised to sell the share.
The Administrative management college, Bangalore. !
'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*#/, the *# lies bet)een D? & NN
A*BUFA:
'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from :uly to
#eptember & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in october #o, in future the
investor is been advised to sell the share.
'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*#/, the *# lies bet)een II & =?
re%ion & is been in increasin% trend. Therefore in future the prices may come
up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the share.
CONCLUSION
n ndian scenario the investments are spread over Bank Deposits, #avin%s 0ertificate,
Post Office, 2$uity !arkets and the latest !utual "und. #ince !utual "unds are
sub&ect to market risk the investor take help of advisory services for financial
plannin% )hich helps the investor to take calculated risk. Technical analysis is a %ood
indicator that sho)s the trend movement as )ell as the varyin% de%ree of movin%
avera%e movement, *ate of chan%e and *elative stren%th indicates. Technical analysis
may be used for more than supplement of fundamental analysis.
The recent correction in the stock market has left many investors unsettled. t is $uite
common to see many investors movin% to side lines every time the market turns
volatile or corrects itself. t is sure as the market starts rallyin% a%ain, some of them
)ill move back $uickly but )ould be )illin% to move out even more $uickly at the
next si%n of do)nside volatility.
The Administrative management college, Bangalore. "
Technical analysis can offer %reat insi%ht, but if used improperly, they can also
produce false si%nals. +hile trend lines have become a very popular aspect of
technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishin%, analyzin%, and
confirmin% a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely
as a )arnin% that a chan%e in trend may be very useful.
n this pro&ect, the market is fallin% tremendously in the month of :une & :uly. #o, the
tools )hich )ere used also sho)in% the do)n)ard trend. +e can predict that the
investor can sell the share.
BIBLIOGRA)HY:
Re&erence B$$%"3
#ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement
--By. Punithavathy Pandian.
nvestment 'nalysis and Portfolio !ana%ement
--By. Prasanna 0handra
#ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement
--By. "ischer and :ordan
"inancial !ana%ement
--By. !. R. Ohan & P. O. :ain

The Administrative management college, Bangalore. #
0e-"ite"3
))).nseindia.com
))).stockcharts.com
))).)ikipedia.com
))).acclimited.com
))).%rasim.com
))).ultratechcement.com
The Administrative management college, Bangalore. !$

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Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

A#'-07 1000.50! 5!.1%2

May-0 223.3 2!7.07

S(p-0 1!22.3%3 66.25

F(.-06 6.%605 1.6%!5

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