Multi-decadal Evolution and North Atlantic Oscillation Influences on the

Dynamics of the Danube Delta Shoreline

A. Vespremeanu-Stroe! ". #onstantinescu! $. %&tui and '. (iosan)
Faculty of Geography
University of Bucharest
01004, Bucharest
Romania
Department of Geology an Geophysics
!oos "ole #ceanographic $nstitution
0%&4', !oos "ole, ()
U*)
A*S%+A#%
+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, )1,2#.*0).0$.,*2U, 31, 040U$, F1 an G$#*)., 51, %0061 (ulti/ecaal evolution an
.orth )tlantic #scillation influences on the ynamics of the Danu7e elta shoreline1 8ournal of 2oastal
Research, *$ &0 9-roceeings of the :th $nternational 2oastal *ymposium;, pg < pg1 Gol 2oast, )ustralia, $*B.
) comprehensive analysis of ata collecte over the last five ecaes on the Danu7e elta coast 9topographic
maps, satellite imagery, G-* surveys an 7each profiles; reveale t=o ifferent shoreline ynamics patterns>
high mo7ility uring 1:?0/1:6: interval =ith 7ig retreating an avancing rates an lo= mo7ility after=ars
91:6:/%00?;1 0he ivergence @ones in the longshore seiment transport system eAperience the highest rates of
retreat 9B%0 mCyr an B10 mCyr in the firstCsecon time interval;, =hereas the shoreline avance fastest along the
coast of active lo7es 9i1e1, 2hilia an *f1 Gheorghe lo7es;1 0he ecrease of coastal processes intensity from the
secon interval =as similar for the erosive 7eaches 9=ith &&/??D; an non/uniform for the accretionary coasts
9%0/?1D for open 7eaches an E0D for the sheltere seconary eltas;1 !in ata analysis points out a goo
connection 7et=een multi/ecaal =inter storm freFuency along the Danu7e elta coast an negative .)#
phases 9r G /016?;1 0he results of the present stuy clearly sho= that shoreline changes at ecaal time scales are
also ultimately riven 7y the .)# =hich controls the storminess on the Danu7e elta coast1
ADI%IONA' INDE, -O+DS. shoreline retreat/advance, longshore sediment transport (LST), storms, multi-
decadal climate variability, Black Sea
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
8ournal of 2oastal Research *$ &0 pg / pg $2*%006 9-roceeings; )ustralia $**.
%
IN%+OD/#%ION
#n the =ave/ominate eltaic coasts, a prominent role in the
evolution of the shoreline is playe 7y the =ave climate an the
=ave/riven nearshore circulation, in aition to the seiment
ischarge 7y the elta/forming river 92#5,(). an !R$G"0,
1:6&H B")00)2")RI) an G$#*)., %00';1 )long the tieless an
=ave/ominate Danu7e elta coast, ue to a strong asymmetry in
=ave attacJ relative to shoreline orientation, the longshore
seiment transport 95*0; =as foun to 7e the primary control on
shoreline mo7ility 9G$#*). et al1, 1:::;1 Recent 5*0 estimates
for the Danu7e elta coast highlight the maKor role playe 7y high/
energy events1 0hus, the 5*0 computations for 1::1/%000 interval
points to an average amount of 11%&L10
?
m
'
Cyr of seiment =as
mo7ilise alongshore 7y storms, =hich is ?%D of the total 5*0H
more important is the resultant 5*0 uring storms responsi7le for
6ED of the net south=ar 5*0 ue to the high freFuency of
northern an northeastern storms 9+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, %004;1
0he strong influence of storms on the nearshore seiment
transport, together =ith the high correlation 7et=een the .orth
)tlantic #scillation 9.)#; an storminess on the Danu7e elta
coast 9+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#, an 040U$, %00&;, prompte us to
eAamine the possi7le control eAerte 7y climate varia7ility on
shoreline change1 .)# is the meriional oscillation in
atmospheric mass 7et=een the su7tropical high an the polar lo=1
0his oscillation is the ominant moe of =inter climate varia7ility
in the .orth )tlantic region, eAtening from central .orth
)merica, to ,urope, an into northern )sia 9"URR,55 et al1, %001H
"URR,55, %00';1 0he .)# ineA has 7een efine as the
ifference in the sea level air pressure 9*5-; 7et=een the $celanic
lo= an the )@ores high 9+). 5##. an R#G,R*, 1:6E;1 0he
ineA varies from year to year, 7ut also eAhi7its a tenency to
remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years 9"URR,55
an +). 5##., 1::6;
0he goal of the present stuy is to investigate the role of the
climate varia7ility 9eApresse 7y .)#; upon the multi/ecaal
Danu7e elta shoreline mo7ility1 !e focuse on 1:?1/%00? perio
=hen .)# ineA eAhi7ite the largest negativeCpositive phases
9corresponing to 1:?1/1:6% C 1:E0/%00% intervals; for the entire
perio =hen irect measurements eAist for the ineA to 7e
compute 9mi 1:
th
century to present;1
S%/D0 A+EA
0he stuy area is a 1?%/Jm lo=/lying coast incluing the coast
of the Danu7e elta in Romania as =ell as the coast locate south
of the elta proper to 2ape (iia 9Figure 1;, =hich is ynamically
linJe to the evelopment of the elta 9G$#*). et al1, %00?;1
Because no compara7le topographical ata7ase =as availa7le to us
for the elta coast locate north of the (usura mouth in UJraine,
this region =as eAclue from our analysis1
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
Author1s last name 9e1g1 Mlein or Mlein an (ene@es or Mlein et al1 /se %imes Ne2 +oman 3 font normal;
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
'
4
0he stuy area consists in five littoral cells, most of them 7eing
ominate 7y erosion1 0he ry temperate climate of the region
9i1e1, '4& mmCyr of precipitation; supports only a sparse vegetation
cover in the 7acJshore @one, =hich favours strong aeolian
transport an preservation of an aeroynamic morphology of the
foreunes =ith small heights 9+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#, an
-R,#0,)*), %00?;1 )long the sta7le an prograing sectors, the
su7aerial 7eaches have a seasonally controlle morphology,
isplaying 1&/%& m =iths at the 7eginning of the spring an '0/
&0 m at the en of the summer ue to the seasonal ifferences in
=ave climate an sea level oscillations epenent on the Danu7e
ischargeH on rapily retreating sectors the narro= 7eaches are
7acJe 7y =ashover fans 9+,*-R,(,).U et al1, %004;1
0he su7merse 7each of erosiveCaccretionary an sta7le sectors
has a slightly concaveCconveA cross/shore profile =ith 1/'
nearshore 7ars =hich migrates offshore inepenent of shoreline
7ehaviour 9+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#, et al1, in press;1
0he coast is virtually tieless, =ith a maAimum tial range of
011% m at spring tie 9B#.D)R et al1, 1:6';1 0he =ave climate is
meium/energy =ith a significant =ave height of 01: m in eep
=aterH freFuent =aves from the northeast Fuarant inuce a strong
net longshore seiment transport of 01E&/1L10
?
m
'
C

yr 9G$#*). et
al1, 1:::H +,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, %004;1
ME%4ODO'O(0
0he primary ata use in this stuy consist in successive
shoreline positions covering the last 4& years o7taine from
topographical surveys, maps, aerial photos, an satellite images1
0opographical ata inclue maps at the 1>%&000 scale for 1:?1
an 1:6:, annual measurements of shoreline movement relative to
a 7enchmarJ net=orJ covering all the eltaic coast from 1:?%
until present, as =ell as G-* shoreline surveys for the interval
%004/%00?1 0he 1:E: an %00? shoreline position =ere
reconstructe com7ining 5ansat an )ster satellite images =ith
topographical surveys1 Base on these atasets, the Danu7e elta
coast evolution =as analy@e using 1%' cross/shore profiles,
space alongshore at 01&/% Jm intervals1 #n each profile, the
annual rates of shoreline changes =ere compute for time
intervals of interest1
$n orer to assess the influence of .)# via storms on coastal
processes varia7ility =e use> 9i; hourly =in ata at *ulina an
*f1 Gheorghe meteorological stations, an 9ii; "urrellNs .)#
ineA efine as the ifference of normali@e sea level pressure
9*5-; 7et=een 5is7on, -ortugal an *tyJJisholmur, $celan
9"URR,55, 1::&;1 Data covering the interval 7et=een 8anuary
1:?1 an *eptem7er %00? =ere processe in the same =ay1 0he
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
Figure 11 0he Danu7e elta coast
Author1s last name 9e1g1 Mlein or Mlein an (ene@es or Mlein et al1 /se %imes Ne2 +oman 3 font normal;
annual mean =as first calculate an then normali@e 7y
eAtracting from each value the mean for the entire stuy perio
91:?1/%00?; an iviing it to the stanar eviation1 0he annual
normali@e anomalies =ere smoothe =ith a three/year running
mean filter to o7tain a multi/annual component of the series1 $n
the present stuy, a storm =as efine 7y =ins at spees over 10
mCs that persiste for at least %4 hours 9+,*-R,(,).U, 1:E6;1
+ES/'%S
During the last five ecaes, the shoreline in the area uner
stuy =as primarily erosiveH retreating sectors account for B:0 Jm
out of 1?% Jm 9&&,?D;, =hereas avancing an sta7le sectors
eAten for B4E Jm 9%:,?D; an B%4 Jm 914,ED;, respectively1
-rograing sectors generally occur either along seconary eltas
7uilt 7y Danu7e istri7utaries 9i1e1, 2hilia an *f1 Gheorghe;
either to the o=nrift areas 9*outh *acalin $slan, *outh 2hituc;
or to stretches of coast =here the 5*0 is convergent ue to
changes in coast orientation 9-eriteaOca; an aroun enginnering
structures 9*ulina;H erosive coasts represent the uprift an central
segments of the littoral cells1 0he spatial istri7ution of 7oth the
prograing an retreating coasts preserves the position from the
1:
th
century espite of an alongshore migration recore in the
secon half of %0
th
century 9Figure %;1 Four coastal sectors that =e
efine as sta7le 9the shoreline changes are small an non/
irectional; for the 1:?1 to present time perio =ere either
prograing 9(usura/*ulina, *f1 Gheorghe; or retreating 92iotica,
*outh -eriteaOca; prior to 1:?11
Bet=een 1:?1 an 1:6:, on the interistri7utary *ulina / *f1
Gheorghe coast, erosion reache a maAimum of /%4 mCyr close at
Jm1 11 9Figure %) an B;1 )s the 7each immeiately south of the
*ulina mouth Ketties continuously prograe, the erosion
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
Figure %1 *horeline evolution 7et=een 1:?1 < %00? 9), B> *ulina 90 Jm; < *f1Gheorghe 9'% Jm; sectorH 2> 2iotica < 2hituc sector =ith
the southern 7ranch of *f1 Gheorghe seconary elta represente as 0 Jm;
&
?
maAimum move o=nrift to Jm 1', 7ut iminishe
consiera7ly to /1011 mCyr after 1:6: 90a7el 1;1
0he average retreat rate for the erosive sector from the *ulina <
*f1 Gheorghe coast sho=s a similarly large 9&&D; ecrease from
/14 mCyr to /?1' mCyr 7et=een the t=o time intervals1 For the
same time interval, on the 2iotica < 2ape (iia coast, the rate of
shoreline retreat along erosive sectors 9Figure %2;, reuce from
/1416 to /41: mCyr for PQtoane 7each 9??D; an from /E1' to /'
mCyr for -ortiRa < .orth 2hituc 9?4D;1 2ompare to the relatively
homogeneous 7ehavior of the retreating sectors of Danu7e elta
coast, the prograing coasts sho= issimilar rates among them1 #n
the marshy coasts of (usura an *f1 Gheorghe seconary eltas,
=hich are protecte 7y 7arriers anCor eAtensive flat nearshore
@ones, the avance rate ecrease =ith E0D, =hereas on the open
prograing 7eaches the iminishing varie 7et=een %0D along the
southern 2hituc shore, '&D at *ulina an ?1D at -eriteaOca1
$n spite of these ifferent magnitues of coastal processes
uring the t=o time intervals it is clear that the accelerate erosion
uring the 1:?1/1:6: interval =as not characteri@e 7y the
alongshore eApansive sectors eAhi7iting shoreline retreat1 #n the
contrary, an eApansion of these erosional sectors, al7eit small,
occurre uring the more sta7le 1:6:/%00? interval1
0he .)# varia7ility uring the %0
th
century =as characteri@e
7y perios of persistent positive/phase =ith more freFuent an
stronger =inter storms over northern ,urope an =ith less an
=eaJer storms over central an southern ,urope 9"URR,55 an
+). 5##.;1 0his is a some=hat unusual situation, =hich occurre
in the past only prior to 1?&0 92##M an DS)RR$G#, %001;1 0he
.)# ineA sho=s a larger varia7ility since the 1:?0s 97et=een
/41E: an &10E; in comparison =ith the previous 100 years of the
recore .)# ineA timeseries 97et=een /'1:6 an '1E:;1
#n the Danu7e elta coast, a strong .)# signal is foun in the
=in regime =here7y there is a high correlation esta7lishe
7et=een the .)# ineA an the storm freFuency at *ulina 9r G
/016?; an *fTntu Gheorghe 9r G /0166; meteorological stations1
(arine storm istri7ution uring the last half of %0
th
century
eAhi7its a very active interval 7e=teen 1:?1 an 1:6% that
coincies =ith the strongest negative .)# phase an a relatively
Fuiet perio =ith lo= varia7ility 7et=een 1:6: an %000, =hich
overlaps a strongly positive .)# phase 9Figure ';1 During the
1:60s a graual ecrease in storm freFuency is recore1 $n the
last fe= years 9%000/%00&;, =hen the .)# ineA =as close to
@ero, the large storm freFuency =as very lo=, =hereas the
meium/intensity storms occurrence increase consiera7ly1
0imeseries ata for three representative 7enchmarJs =ere
compare =ith .)# ineA to assess the continuous shoreline
evolution of corresponing ynamic sectors> R ?0 an R %E for the
accretionary *ulina an -eriteaOca 7eaches an R '' for the
retreating PQtoane 7each 9Figure 1;1 ) comparison of the shoreline
7ehaviour at these three 7enchmarJs sho=s an accentuate
avanceCretreat in the 1:?0s an 1:60s follo=e 7y an o7vious
shift to=ar less ynamic 7eaches uring 1:6E<1:E& interval
9Figure 4;1 0he shift occurre in 1:6E for R %E, in 1:E% for R '',
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
0a7le 1> (ean an maAimum rates of shoreline mo7ility for
erosional an accretional coastal sectors 91:?1 <%00?;

%ime
interval
#oastal
sectors
5365 - 5373 5373 - 8996
(ean
value
9mCyr;
(aA1
value
9mCyr;
(ean
value
9mCyr;
(aA1
value
9mCyr;
,
r
o
s
i
o
n
a
l

s
e
c
t
o
r
s
E5 9$mputita <
.orth
*araturile
-5:.9 /%410 -6.; /1011
E8 9*acalin $1;
-8; /'61% -57.7 /%?1:
E; 9Patoane; -5:.7 /%11E -:.3 /E1%
E: 9-ortita <
.orth
2hituc;
-<.; /%01& -;.9 /?16
)
c
c
r
e
t
i
o
n
a
l

s
e
c
t
o
r
s
A5 9(usura <
seconary
elta;
=8.< :11? 59.: 1&1?
A8 9*ulina; 58.: 1&1E <.5 101E
A; 9*f1 George
< seconary
elta;
56.3 %11E ;.7 ?1?
A: 9-eriteasca; 6.9 %01% 8.; 41E
A= 9*outh
2hituc;
8.< 411 8.; '1&
Figure 41 0ime evolution of shoreline mo7ility at R ?0, R '' an
R %E 7enchmarJs an "urrelSs .)# ineA
Figure '1 0ime evolution of storm incience an "urrelSs .)#
ineA for *ulina meteorological station
Author1s last name 9e1g1 Mlein or Mlein an (ene@es or Mlein et al1 /se %imes Ne2 +oman 3 font normal;
an in 1:E& for R ?01 0he .)# ineA recors a similar shift from
ominantly negative to ominantly positive sometime 7et=een
1:60 an 1:E01
0hus, the shoreline evolution on 7oth the prograing an
retreating sectors appears to 7e negatively correlate =ith the
.)# ineA 9Figure 4;1

DIS#/SSION AND #ON#'/SIONS
Recent stuies on macrotial coasts suggest that the impact of
storm surges can 7e satisfactory assesse only at a short/term
scale, =hen shoreline changes represent an almost immeiate
response to meteorological an oceanographic forcings1 )t
ecaal scale, no irect relationship =as o7serve 7et=een
storminess an coastline evolution 92")+,R#0 et al1, %00?;1 )s
the impact of storms highly epens on the tie level at the
moment of the storm event, microtial an tieless coasts are the
7est locations to investigate the potential effects of climatic/
moulate storms on shoreline change1 (oreover, =e avocate the
use of a lo=er limit for storm threshol 9e1g1, uU10 mCs instea of
the usual uV1? mCs;, =hich =ill eAten analyses into a more
realistic range of morphoynamically/effective events an not Kust
to eAceptional events as previously consiere1
*ome eApecte conseFuences of glo7al climate change that =ill
potentially impact the coastal lanscape in the %1
st
century inclue
an accelerate sea/level rise an an increase in storminess =hich
coul result in an intensification of coastal erosion an more
freFuent flooing of lo=/lying coasts 9FR,.2" et al1, 1::&H !)*),
1::EH -$R)PP#5$ et al1, %004;1 Besies the sea/level rise, =hich is
a common phenomenon for the most coasts, the storminess on the
Romanian BlacJ *ea 2oast is strongly couple =ith the .)#
phases1 *imilarly on other coasts, storminess coul vary as a
function of the local climatic varia7ility, ultimately controlling the
intensity of the coastal ynamics 95#P).# et al1, %004;1 #n coasts
=here longshore transport is ominant, the concept of Waccelerate
coastal erosionX, associate =ith the perios of high storminess,
nees to 7e thought in association =ith Waccelerate coastal
prograationX as these phenomena compensate each other in each
given littoral cell1 Due to this conservation of seiment mass,
eroing coastal sectors are not necessarily more eAtensive uring
intervals =ith high storminess than uring intervals =ith lo=
storminess1
) previous analysis of =in regime on the Romanian BlacJ *ea
coast points out that the positive =inter =in spee anomalies are
associate =ith .)# negative phases 9+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#, an
040U$, %00&;1 0he present stuy clearly sho=s that shoreline
changes an storminess are connecte at short/time scale =hereas
the coastline meium/term 9ecaal; evolution is controlle 7y the
.)# phases1
A#>NO-'ED(EMEN%S
0his stuy =as fune 7y the .ational University Research
2ouncil 92.2*$* grant %6?:4; an 7y the *fTntu Gheorghe
(arine an Fluvial Research *tation of Bucharest University1 !e
are grateful to -rof1 ,mil +espremeanu an 5uminiRa -reoteasa
for the useful iscussion on this topic1
'I%E+A%/+E #I%ED
B")00)2")RI), 81-1, G$#*)., 51, %00'1 !ave/influence eltas>
geomorphologicalimplications for facies reconstructions1
Sedimentology, &0, 1E6/%101
B#.D)R, 21, *0)0,, $1, R#+,.Y), +1, 1:6'1 (area .eagrQ Zn
@ona litoralului romTnesc al (Qrii .egre1 (onografie
hirologicQ1 BucureOti, $nstitutul e (eteorologie Oi
"irologie, &1? p1
2")+,R#0, *1, ",[U,00,, )1, 2#",., #1 ,volution of climatic
forcing an potentially eroing events on the coast of .orthern
France1 The 5
th
nternational !on"erence on !oastal
#ynamics, Barcelone, ,spagne, )vril %00&, 2/rom, 11 p1
2##M, ,1R1, DS)RR$G#, R1D1, %00%1 ) =ell/verifie, multiproAy
reconstruction of the =inter .orth )tlantic #scillation $neA
since )1D1 14001 $ournal o" !limate, 1&, 16&4/16?41
FR,.2", 81R1, *-,.2,R, 01, R,,D, D181, 1::&1 Geomorphic
responses to sea level rise> eAisting evience future impacts1
%arth Sur"ace Land"orm and &rocesses, %0, 1/1?1
G$#*)., 51, B#MU.$,!$2P, "1, -).$., .1, -#*0#5)2",, $1, 1:::1
5ongshore seiment transport pattern along the Romanian
Danu7e elta coast1 $ournal o" !oastal 'esearch, 1& 94;, E&:/
E611
G$#*)., 51, D#..,55I, 81, 2#.*0).0$.,*2U, *1, F$5$-, F1,
#+,8).U, $1, +,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, )1, +,*-R,(,).U, ,1,
DU55,R, G1)101, %00?1 Ioung Danu7e elta ocuments sta7le
BlacJ *ea level since the mile "olocene> morphoynamic,
paleogeographic an archaeological implications1 (eology,
'4, 6&6<6?01
"URR,55, 81!1, %00'1 2limate> .orth )tlantic an )rctic
#scillation 9.)#C)#;1 $n "olton, 81R1, -yle, 81, 2urry, 81
9,s1;, %ncyclopedia o" )tmospheric Sciences1 )caemic
-ress,
"URR,55, 81!1, MU*".$R, I1, +$*B,2M, (1, %0011 0he .orth
)tlantic #scillation1 *cience, %:1, &&04, ?0'/?0&1
"URR,55, 81 !1, 1::&> Decaal 0rens in the .orth )tlantic
#scilation Regional 0emperatures an -recipitation1 Science,
%?:, ?6?/?6:1
"URR,55, 81!1, +). 5##., "1, 1::61 Decaal variations in
climate associate =ith the .orth )tlantic oscillation1
!limatic change, '?, '01/'0?1
5#P).#, 81, D,+#I D181.1, ()I, !1, ).D,R*,., U1, %0041
*torminess an vulnera7ility along the )tlantic coastline of
,urope> analysis of storm recors an of a greenhouse gases
inuce climate scenario1 *arine (eology, %10, %0&/%%&1
-$R)PP#5$, -1)1, R,G.)U5D, "1, 5,()**#., 51, %0041 2hanges
in storminess an surges in =estern France uring the last
century1 *arine (eology, %10, '06/'%'1
+,*-R,(,).U, ,1, 1:E61 -ro7leme e Geomorfologie (arinQ1
BucureOti> ,itura UniversitQRii in BucureOti, 116p1
+,*-R,(,).U, ,1, +,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, )1, 2#.*0).0$.,*2U,
31, %0041 ,voluRia RQrmului eltei DunQrii Zn ultimii 40 ani1
Studii +i cercet,ri de oceanogra"ie costier,, 1, 1&/'01
+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, )1, %00471 0ransportul e seimente Zn
lungul RQrmului Oi regimul valurilor pe coasta Deltei DunQrii1
Studii +i !ercet,ri de -ceanogra"ie !ostier,, 1, ?6/E%1
+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, )1, -R,#0,)*), 51, %00?1 Beach/une
interactions on the ry/temperate Danu7e elta coast1
(eomorphology, oi>101101?CK1geomorph1%00?10:1011
+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, )1 040U$, F1, %00?1 0he influence of
.orth )tlantic #scillation on Romanian BlacJ *ea coast =in
regime1 Studii +i !ercet,ri de -ceanogra"ie !ostierQ, %, &&/
?%1
+,*-R,(,).U/*0R#,, )1, 2#.*0).0$.,*2U, 31, 040U$, F1, F$5$-,
F1 2omportamentul multianual al 7arelor su7merse
longituinale pe un RQrm micromareic1 'evista de
(eomor"ologie, in press
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
6
E
!)*) GR#U-, 1::E1 2hanging =aves an storms in the .ortheast
)tlantic\ Bulletin o" the )merican *eteorological Society, 6:,
641/6?01
8ournal of 2oastal Research! *pecial $ssue &0, %006
Author1s last name 9e1g1 Mlein or Mlein an (ene@es or Mlein et al1 /se %imes Ne2 +oman 3 font normal;