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DELPHI TECHNIQUE
The Delphi technique is an
intensive and fairly specialized
group problem-solving method
used to harness and reconcile the
knoledge and !udgment of
several e"perts# There is no single
ay of conducting a Delphi
study$ hence the concept% also
knon as the Delphi method%
refers to a general process of
having e"perts formulate
solutions to problems through
several cycles of revision based
on each other&s feedback# 'deally% the end result is a better solution than any of the e"perts could
have arrived at individually# (riginally developed as a forecasting tool% it as created by the
)#*# military around +,-- for the purpose of estimating the probable effects of a massive atomic
bombing attack on the )nited *tates# 'n the mid+,./s% researchers began applying the technique
to technological forecasting# *ince then% its use has spread into other disciplines as a method of
identifying and solving problems#
THE BEGINNINGS OF THE DELPHI
TECHNIQUE
'n the early +,-/s% there e"isted considerable concern in the )nited *tates over possible atomic
bomb attacks by 0ussia# 1"perts ere interested in hat ould happen if such attacks did occur#
Therefore% the Air 2orce% hich as responsible for defending the nation&s skies% decided to ascertain hat damage ould
be incurred by the country if it ere attacked via air# The Air 2orce commissioned the 0and 3orporation to question
e"perts regarding hat ould happen as a result of these theoretical bombing raids# Thus as born the Delphi technique#
4uessing at hat ould happen as the result of an atomic bomb raid as dependent on the collection and analysis of large
amounts of data# Today% that ould be considerably easier than it as in the +,-/s# 3omputers ere !ust coming into
popular use then% and data collection techniques had not been refined# 1ven if large amounts of data ere collected% pro!ect
members ould have had to rely heavily on sub!ectivity% since information on *oviet intelligence% military strength%
economic policies% etc#% as not readily available# 0and 3orporation sought an alternative collection and analysis method#
THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE DELPHI
TECHNIQUE
The founders of the Delphi technique based it in part on traditional philosophical premises# They looked to philosophers
such as 4ottfried 5eibnitz% 6ohn 5ocke% 'mmanuel 7ant% 4eorg 8egel% and 'saac *inger for the foundations of the
techniques# They developed a basic set of questions on hich to base the Delphi inquiry methods# 9uestions included:
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8o can e independently of any empirical or personal considerations give a purely rational !ustification of the
proposition or assertion: ;5eibnitz<
=hat is the probability that e are right in our ansers: ;5ocke<
=hat alternative sets of propositions e"ist and hich best satisfy our ob!ectives and offer the strongest combination of
data and model: ;7ant<
*ince every set of propositions is a reflection of a more general theory or plan about the nature of the orld as a
hole system% does there e"ist some alternative sharply differing orld vie that ould permit the serious
consideration of a completely opposite set of propositions: =hy is this opposing vie not true or more desirable:
;8egel<
8ave e taken a broad enough perspective of the basic problem: 8ave e asked the right questions from the
beginning: 8ave e focused on the right ob!ectives: ;*inger<
These ere by no means all the questions the technique&s founders asked% but they represented a start# They ere simply
looking to find all the strengths and eaknesses involved in their ne technique# They applied the philosophical lessons to
the realities involved in the method#
RE'LITY 'S P'RT OF THE DELPHI
TECHNIQUE
Delphi technique developers anted to delineate sharply beteen theory and reality# )ltimately% hat they anted as for
Delphi panel members to conceptualize in realistic terms the problems on hich they ere orking% rather than in
theoretical terms# Theoretical findings% after all% ere of limited value unless they ere matched to reality# *ince no atom
bomb raids had actually been conducted by the 0ussians% the Delphi practitioners had no reality on hich to base their
findings# Yet they ere e"pected to develop accurate results of a true bombing# The question% then% as ho to arrive at
those findings ithout relying too heavily on theory#
They perceived a step-by-step process through hich the conceptual process could be carried out# >asically% it consisted of
preparing the materials% interpreting the responses% integrating the insights% and presenting the results# The key as in
repetition of these steps# 2or e"ample% once the results of a round of questions ere presented to Delphi members% they
could reformulate their ansers based on the ne input# The founders believed that through the constant iterations of the
questions based on ne information% the ansers the participants ultimately presented ould be as realistic as possible#
THE PROCESS
The Delphi technique comprises several steps involving participants ho may or may not meet face to face# The
participants ;or panel< might be employees of a specific company conducting a Delphi pro!ect or e"perts selected from the
outside for their in-depth knoledge of a given academic discipline or manufacturing process# 'n the original technique% no
matter ho they ere or hat their specialties% the e"perts ere to be kept isolated from one another# 5ater elaborations of
Delphi methods eased such restrictions hen circumstances seemed to arrant it$ indeed% in some cases Delphi panels met
in person in a highly structured conference setting#
The purposes of keeping them apart% or at least tightly structuring their communications% ere to restrict undue influence
that individuals may ield in group situations and% if necessary% to protect participants& anonymity# The technique as
designed so that the participants& physical presence in the process is unnecessary throughout the multi-step process#
The essential steps in a traditional anonymous Delphi study are as follos:
Articulate a problem# +#
Ask participants to provide potential solutions through a series of carefully designed questionnaires# There may be a
specific time horizon over hich the solutions are to be based% e#g#% for -/ years in cases of scientific breakthroughs#
?#
Participants complete the first questionnaire anonymously and independently# @#
The results of the first questionnaire are tabulated at a central location% transcribed% reproduced% and forarded to
each participant#
A#
After revieing the initial results% members submit ne solutions# -#
They may make ne estimates% often based on a -/--/ probability% as to hether each breakthrough ill occur earlier
or later than predicted by the other participants# (r% they might suggest that the events predicted may not occur at all
and e"plain hy they feel that ay# 'n any case% each round of results invariably triggers ne resolutions#
.#
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The submission of ne solutions based on reiterations of the questionnaire process is repeated until the participants
reach a consensus#
B#
4enerally% three to four cycles of the process result in a consensus among the participants#
'D('NT'GES OF THE DELPHI
TECHNIQUE
There are several advantages to the Delphi technique# (ne of the most significant is its versatility# The technique can be
used in a ide range of environments% e#g#% government planning% business and industry predictions% volunteer group
decisions# Another important advantage lies in the area of e"penses#
2or e"ample% the Delphi technique saves corporations money in travel e"penses# They do not have to gather participants
from several points of the globe in one place to resolve a problem or predict the future% yet they still can generate relevant
ideas from the people best suited to offer their e"pertise# This is particularly beneficial to multinational corporations% hose
e"ecutives and key personnel may be based in cities as far apart as Celbourne% De York% Tokyo% >uenos Aires% and
5ondon#
The technique also protects participants& anonymity# Thus% they feel better protected from criticism over their proposed
solutions and from the pitfalls of EgroupthinkE% i#e#% the ithholding by group members of different vies in order to appear
in agreement# (n the other hand% the technique has its drabacks#
THE DIS'D('NT'GES OF THE DELPHI
TECHNIQUE
The Delphi technique is somehat time consuming% hich renders it ineffective hen fast ansers are needed# 't might
also be deficient in the degree of fully thought-out resolutions# People acting together in a group setting benefit from others&
ideas# Thus% there might be more insightful and pragmatic resolutions to problems offered by people in interactive settings%
e#g#% through the nominal group technique% in hich participants are gathered in one place but operate independently of
one another# 8oever% in situations here time is not of the essence or group interaction is not important% these
disadvantages diminish in importance#
Another draback to using the Delphi technique is that it can be difficult for researchers to design an effective study# As
ith survey and other respondent-dependent research designs% the results from a Delphi study are determined in large part
by ho they are framed and conducted# 2or e"ample% the study coordinator may inadvertently railroad dissenters on the
e"pert panel into accepting the consensus vie before alloing them to e"press potentially important ideas that might
otherise change the consensus# *imilarly% if the study coordinator is summarizing each participant&s responses% care must
be taken that the full breadth and depth of each e"pert&s comments is recorded for the others to respond to#
('RI'TIONS
There e"ist variations of the original Delphi process% hich as applied primarily to technical topics# 2or e"ample% there is
the Policy Delphi% hich marked the first ma!or deviation from the original technique#
'n the original process% the goal as to seek a consensus among homogeneous groups of e"perts on a given topic# *everal
years after the Delphi technique came into use% proponents introduced the Policy Delphi% hich as based on a somehat
different approach#
The Policy Delphi tries to generate the strongest possible opposing vies on the potential resolutions to a problem# Policy
Delphi is based on the premise that the person ;or people< making the ultimate decision in the process does not ant the
group to generate the decision# 0ather% the idea is to have an informed group present all the options and leave the ultimate
resolution to the decision maker#
(ther adaptations of the Delphi technique focus on getting faster results from the e"pert panel and minimize the number of
times they are asked to reevaluate the problem based on their peers& opinions# These abbreviated Delphi methods focus on
reaching a consensus quickly% perhaps at the e"pense of details and nuances% and may only involve to rounds of responses
from the e"perts#
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PR'CTIC'L 'PPLIC'TIONS
The Delphi technique is applicable to many situations requiring group solutions to problems or prognostications about
future events# >ecause of its nature as a rigorous forum for advancing educated guessork% the Delphi technique is best
suited to problems that require evaluative% qualitative ansers rather than precise% quantitative results# 4enerally% Delphi
studies are also most useful for assembling groups of e"perts ho ould otherise probably never come into contact# A
company ould not be likely to need the Delphi method to gather ideas from a group of coorkers ithin the same office%
for e"ample#
Cany pioneering academic uses of the Delphi technique occurred in the late +,./s and early +,B/s# 2or e"ample% in +,B/%
Professors Alan *heldon of the 8arvard Cedical *chool and 3urtis Cc5aughlin of the )niversity of Dorth 3arolina
>usiness *chool led a Delphi pro!ect on the future of medical care# The to applied a somehat different approach in their
pro!ect ;another indication of ho fle"ible the Delphi technique can be<# They combined the events evaluated by the
respondents into scenarios in the form of typical nespaper articles# They asked the respondents to propose additions or
modifications to the scenarios and give their reactions to the scenarios as a hole# 'nadvertently% they introduced a ne
ay of conducting Delphi pro!ects# Their concept of utilizing the vote on individual items and group events in scenarios
classed by such things as likelihood andFor desirability became a standard technique in the pro!ect#
>ell 3anada as one of the first businesses to adapt the Delphi technique to its forecasting activities# 'n the late +,./s% the
company developed a study plan to evaluate future trends in the visual and computer communications fields# There e"isted
a clear lack of qualitative data on future prospects for these fields as they pertained to 3anada# 3ompany leaders decided to
use the Delphi technique to e"amine the future of these fields#
>ell 3anada conducted a series of ide-ranging Delphi studies to determine the future course of technology and its
applications in diverse areas of life# The company developed e"tensive questionnaires asking a variety of questions
e"amining the future of technologically advanced applications from a user&s point of vie# The questions touched on social
issues such as value changes in Dorth American society and ho ould be most likely to use ne communications
products# Products included in the study included computerized library systems and computer-aided instruction systems
for education% remote physiological monitoring and computer-assisted diagnosis for medicine% and terminals and data
processing in the business environment# The study addressed questions such as evolutions in school design% trends in the
medical profession% and changes in business procedures# >ell 3anada derived an impressive amount of information from
the studies#
The data >ell 3anada derived resulted in a significant increase in the company&s store of qualitative data used in the
planning and forecasting processes# Perhaps more importantly% both for >ell 3anada and other Delphi users% the studies led
to idespread modifications from the original 0and 3orporation approach% particularly in the emphasis on analyzing
participants& comments and establishing threshold levels of acceptance#
Core recent applications of the Delphi technique have addressed the emergence of electric and hybrid gas-electric
automobiles% predicted tourism in certain locales% and identified the potential for sophisticated technology aste-
management systems#
THE USE 'ND )ISUSE OF DELPHI
RESULTS
SUCCESSFUL USES&
'nformation derived from Delphi studies can be highly valuable to businesses# 2or e"ample% entities involved in Delphi
pro!ects can trade results ith other interested parties% e#g#% members of a trade association or competitors# They can
furnish the results to specialists in their organizations% e#g#% engineers or scientists% to stimulate inno*ation& (r% the results
can be used as an educational tool for senior managers ho are attempting to predict a company&s future course via
long-range planning#
5ong-range forecasting is essential to any business that hopes to survive in the increasingly competitive global environment#
=hile e"ecutives may not have enough time to gather data via Delphi for short and intermediate planning% they can use it
for long-range forecasting# Delphi pro!ects are ideal for such a purpose#
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Cany companies have utilized the Delphi technique as a forecasting tool# Among them are T0=% '>C% ATGT% 3orning 4lass
=orks% 4oodyear Tire and 0ubber 3ompany% and the Alaska Department of 3ommerce and 1conomic Development% hich
used the Delphi technique in the early +,H/s to assess the state&s energy% economic% and resource development future#
The billion-dollar company >harat 8eavy 1lectricals% 5td# ;>815<% 'ndia&s largest heavy electrical equipment company%
demonstrated the value of Delphi in long-range planning in the mid-+,H/s# The company e"plored the future direction of
poer development in 'ndia% particularly in the fields of electric energy and electric transportation# >815&s products create
systems for electric poer generation through thermal% nuclear% and hydro sources% and for poer transmission to 'ndia&s
industrial and transportation processes# To forecast the company&s needs in these areas% management solicited data from
?H. employees in a variety of engineering disciplines#
'n the first round% participants received an open-ended questionnaire# The purpose as to gather as much information as
possible regarding ma!or technological breakthroughs that conceivably could be developed over the ne"t fe decades#
Participants ere asked to estimate hen these breakthroughs ould occur#
The compiled list of ideas and predictions as returned to the participants in the second round# The respondents ere
asked to reassess their earlier estimates in vie of the ne information# They ere also requested to assign a priority
ranking for each pro!ected technological development# (nce they completed this round% a consensus began to emerge# 'n
the third round% the participants submitted final estimates based on the results of the second round% along ith their
rationales for their ideas# The results ere positive#
The process identified the likely development of +, ne energy sources# 't also provided estimates as to hen each of the
ne sources ould be available# >815&s management found these predictions e"tremely helpful in its long-range
forecasting plansIhich is e"actly hat the Delphi technique is designed to do#
)ISUSES&
(ne of the most common misuses of Delphi-generated information is to assume that the results are to become official
company policy# That is not the purpose of the Delphi technique# The information gathered is intended to be used simply as
an aid in the problem-solving or forecasting process% not as the foundation of company policy#
*imilarly% corporate "u+!ic re!ations representatives sometimes treat the results of Delphi pro!ects as information that is
to be applied immediately to the production of goods andFor services# 8ence% in their minds% hat Delphi participants have
pro!ected to occur in @/ or A/ years is to be implemented immediately# They release the results to the orld at large in
order to tout their company&s innovative philosophies and progressiveness% only to discover that the information is of no
use in the present# 'n the process% they might inadvertently leak trade secrets to competitors and harm their on company&s
competitive advantage# =orst of all% they can damage their company&s reputation#
(ne last misuse of Delphi results is in the interpretation of the findings# 'n many cases% results are fed into computers for
analysis and verification# The computer programs that are used may be making Ebest guessE predictions regarding the data#
2or e"ample% in the initial 0and study% any computerized analysis of the data analyzed by a computer could not have been
based on actual events% since they never happened# Thus% any results of Delphi data analyzed by the computer ould have
been based on pro!ection# 't is easy% then% for people to misinterpret computer-generated analyses as events that ill occur
e"actly as predicted# Cistakes such as this can render the results of Delphi pro!ects unreliable and unusable# Despite the
potential for misuse% Delphi procedures are still valuable tools for researchers#
THE FUTURE OF DELPHI
The Delphi technique has evolved dramatically since its first application in the +,-/s# 0esearchers have e"panded its uses
and modified the procedures through hich they gather information# The evolution of computers and their applications
have simplified the decision-making part of the Delphi process# 3omputer models can no make more efficient use of the
data gathered through basic techniques and generate highly realistic pro!ections and results of future events#
The modifications and enhanced computers have by no means banished Delphi to the scrap heap of forecasting history#
'ndeed% the opposite is true# The Delphi technique ill remain a viable technique in the business orld for the foreseeable
future# 'n fact% it ill take on added importance as global competition e"pands and finite sources of ra resources diminish#
3orporations ill seek ne replacements as resources such as oil% coal% and minerals reach e"tinction# They ill look for
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more efficient production techniques that ill enable them to improve their profitability ratios% e#g#% their net "rofit
,argins and return on investment% in order to remain competitive ith domestic competitors and manufacturers in
emerging nations# 't is not inconceivable that Delphi pro!ects ill be used to promote innovative ideas regarding the future
of space travel% colonizing other planets% etc# That is simply because Delphi is a technique designed primarily to deal ith
long-range forecasting#
SEE ALSO : 2orecasting
[ Arthur G. Sharp ]
FURTHER RE'DING-
>oks% 3asper% and 1rik Tempelman# E2uture Disassembly and 0ecycling Technology: 0esults of a Delphi *tudy#E Futures,
6une +,,H#
Drucker% Peter 2# Technology, Management and Society. De York: Cc4ra-8ill% +,B/#
4upta% )ma 4#% and 0obert 1# 3larke# ETheory and Applications of the Delphi Technique: A >ibliography ;+,B--+,,A<#E
Technological Forecasting and Social hange, (ctober +,,.#
5instone% 8arold A# and Curray Turoff% 1ditors# The !elphi Method" Techni#ues and Applications. 0eading% CA: Addison-
=esley Publishing 3ompany% +,B-#
Dg% 8#7#% 6#5# Anderson% and D#6# *antini# E1lectric and 8ybrid Jehicles: A ?--Year 2orecast#E Automoti$e Engineering,
2ebruary +,,.#
=heelright% *teven 3# and *pyros Cakridakis# Forecasting Methods %or Management. De York: 6ohn =iley G *ons% +,H-#
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