DNV GL 2013 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL 2013

Managing and communicating the

broader Arctic risk picture
Brre Johan Paaske
23. January 2014
DNV GL OIL AND GAS
23 January 2014 1
Linking risk perceptions and risk assessments
DNV GL 2013
Arctic rich with resources and dilemmas
Harm to the environment
Climate change
Safety for those working in
the arctic
Interference with other
activities

Disturbance of natives
Conflicts between countries
Lacking regulations
High investment costs
Local job creation
Economic growth
Increased knowledge about
the arctic
Energy security


Development of infrastructure
Technological advancements
Increased regional cooperation

2
DNV GL 2013
Arctic conditions are not uniform
Low temperatures
Sea ice and icebergs
Marine icing
Atmospheric icing
Visibility
Remoteness and lack of infrastructure
Darkness
Polar lows
Reduced satellite coverage
Remoteness and lack of infrastructure
Vulnerable environment and marine
resources
Uncertain metocean data (e.g. polar lows)
Joint probabilities of loads

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Probability
Modell for risk

4
4
Consequence
People Assets Business Environment
Risk
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The Arctic environment new risk drivers
5
Temperature

Visibility

Marine icing
Atmospheric icing

Precipitation

Polar lows

Sea ice and
icebergs

Combination of
loads

Darkness

Uncertainty in
data


Sensitive
environment

Subsistence
lifestyle

Pristine area

Remoteness

High public
attention

Darkness

Cold climate

DNV GL 2013
Arctic Risk Map System Design
6
DNV GL 2013
Oil spills are considered to be the most important environmental threat associated with shipping and the
oil&gas industry (AMAP, 2007)
To understand how the environmental vulnerability towards oils spill varies with regions and time a pan Arctic
oil vulnerability assessment has been performed
Approach:


7
Pan Arctic environmental vulnerability assessment
Areas of Heightened Ecological Significance in
the 17 Arctic LMEs (AMAP/CAFF/SDWG, 2013)
DNV GL 2013 8
Case : Environmental vulnerability and HFO-shipping
January
October
April
July
Vulnerability
HFO - shipping
Figure 3 Map of vulnerable seabird areas, HFO-traffic and ice in four seasons

DNV GL 2013
The drivers affecting safety risk and operational challenges vary greatly with time and location in the arcrtic
To understand how the these risk drivers varies with regions and time a pan Arctic safety and operability
index has been developed
The index is aggregated from selected parameters impacting on safety and operability, and for each location
it is benchmarked against the Norwegian Sea

Approach:


9
Pan Arctic safety and operability index
Collect and process data on risk
drivers
Score each location according to
defined criteria and against
benchmark
Safety and operability index
DNV GL 2013

23 January 2014
Private and confidential
10
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23 January 2014
Private and confidential
11
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23 January 2014 12
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23 January 2014 13
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Vulnerabilitiy towards oil spill Pan Arctic index

23 January 2014 14
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Arctic Safety and Operabilty index

23 January 2014 15
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Barents 2020: Collaboration for safety in the Barents Sea

16
Supported by
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Agree on an acceptable risk level in the Arctic
17
The risk level in the Arctic must be equivalent to
or better than the best performance in the
industry today
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Areas of Improvement of Risk Communication
The objective of good risk communication is to establish trust and credibility
18
MESSAGE:
Timely disclosure of relevant information
Regular updating with accurate information
Clear and concise
Unbiased
Sensitive to values, fears and concerns of public
,

Admits uncertainty
From a legitimate reputable source
Organized message
Use of metaphors
Explicit conclusions
Positive information recorded in early part of message
Forceful and intense
PERSON:
Admits uncertainty
Responds to emotions of public
Appears competent
Similarity with receiver
Has some personal stake in the issue
Clear and concise
Perceived as "expert
Perceived as "attractive"
Charismatic
Trustworthy-honest, altruistic, and objective
Social License to Operate
Build Trust
Public Outreach
Benefits Outweigh the
Risks/Concerns
Regulatory
Processes
(Permitting)
Open and
Transparent
Communication
Inclusion of All
Stakeholders in
the Process
Early Involvement
of Stakeholders
Listen and
Address Concerns
of Public
DNV GL 2013
If you have to choose only one activity, which one of the following
activities worries you the most when it comes to the Arctic?
0,072361813
0,079186205
0,081730013
0,576283527
0,071108789
0,028498155
0,090831498
0,067410764
0,303956238
0,113916823
0,305724389
0,048550484
0,016852691
0,14358861
0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1
Tourism
Mining
Fishing
Oil and gas
Shipping (maritime transport)
Research
None of these
Alaska Norway
19
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When you consider the following activities, to what degree
do you see them as accepted among people today?
0,520811064
0,204369324
0,648237121
0,17254475
0,386326459
0,753729468
0,727690154
0,270404661
0,780987797
0,560663755
0,556516854
0,630986021
0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1
Tourism
Mining
Fishing
Oil and gas
Shipping (maritime transport)
Research
Alaska Norway
20
Percentage seeing as acceptable to a large or very large degree
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In your opinion, will the benefits of increased activity in the
Arctic outweigh your concerns?
0,284867652
0,532776043
0,49888761 0,250835936
0,216244738 0,216388021
0 %
25 %
50 %
75 %
100 %
Norway Alaska
Yes No Don't know
21
In your opinion, will the
benefits of increased
petroleum activity in the
Arctic outweigh your concerns?
DNV GL 2013
Safe operations in the Arctic need to reflect location and seasonality
In areas with no ice the
main focus should be on
adequate winterization of
assets, search and rescue
capacity and transparency
toward the public is needed.


When moving into areas
with seasonal ice or close
to the ice edge oil spill
response capability in ice
should be ensured.
Protected areas and
seasonal limitations on
activities need to be
considered and should be
expected.
Before operating in
wintertime in areas with
heavy ice conditions there
should be public awareness of
the risks and benefits. In
addition an industry standard
for ice management and
adequate icebreaker fleet is
required, and possibility to
evacuate personnel in ice
DNV GL 2013
SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER
www.dnvgl.com
Thank you for your attention
23 January 2014 23
DNV GL Oil and Gas
Borre.johan.paaske@dnvgl.com
+47 99 10 20 72