Weekl

yEconomi
cIndi
cat
or
s
06 June 2014

St
at
i
st
i
csDepar
t
ment

Real Sector & Inflation

Year-on-year inflation decreased significantly to 3.2 per cent in May
2014, reaching the lowest rate recorded since March 2012.The sharp
deceleration of inflation was a result of the moderation in prices of some
items in the non-food category and the high base prevailed in May 2013.
Annual average inflation also moderated further to 5.3 per cent in May
2014 from 5.6 per cent in April 2014, following the decelerating trend
observed since June 2013
The economy rebounded to a higher growth trajectory in 2013 achieving a
7.3 per cent growth in real terms compared to the 6.3 per cent growth
recorded in 2012, mainly supported by the robust second half
performance, registering a positive growth in all the sectors namely;
Agriculture by 4.7%, Industry by 9.9% and Services by 6.4% during the
year.

The Factory Industry Production Index (FIPI) increased by 4.5 per cent
on year-on-year basis in February 2014, mainly due to the increase in
wearing apparel as well as rubber and plastic products sectors which
recorded a significant growth of 22.0 and 14.7 per cent respectively due
to increased domestic as well as international demand.
During the week, crude oil spot prices showed mixed performance. Price
declines were supported by recent data showing rising OPEC oil
production. OPEC's oil output had risen to a three-month high in May, due
to increased supplies from Angola and a further gain in exports from
southern Iraq outweighed worsening unrest in Libya. Further price
declines were curbed by economic data from the U.S. and China. New
orders for U.S. factory goods rose for the third straight month in April
and China's factory sector recorded its best performance in four months
in May. Also, American Petroleum Institute data showed U.S. crude
stocks fell 1.4 million barrels last week. By the end of the week crude oil
prices fell on hopes that a peace plan from the new Ukraine President
which would include decentralization of power, a wide amnesty, and
election for local government might help ease the crisis with Russian
separatists.
Page 01

Key Highlights

Tea production in the first four months of 2014 declined mainly due to
drought conditions which prevailed in the tea growing areas. The decline
in tea production during this period witnessed in all major elevations.
Although the total rubber production in the first quarter of 2014
declined, it shows a recovery compared to a 23 per cent of reduction in
the last quarter of corresponding period in 2013. Coconut production in
the first quarter of 2014 grew mainly due to the lagged impact of the
favourable weather conditions prevailed in the corresponding period of
the previous year.

1.1 Price Indices

Item

May

Month

Year

2014

Ago

Ago

CCPI - Anual Average

10

(2006 / 07 = 100)

2014

Colombo Consumers' Price Index (CCPI )

Annual Average Change %
Year - on - Year Change %

179.5

178.4

173.9

5.3

5.6

8.8

3.2

4.9

7.3

Core Inflation - ( CCPI )

Annual Average Change %
Year - on - Year Change %

172.1

171.9

166.6

3.1

3.3

6.6

3.3

3.4

5.7

Anual Average

2013

8
7
6

5
4
J

Jy

Month

1.2 Pettah Market

Average Wholesale Prices

Item

Week Ending
5th June

Average Retail Prices

Week

Month

Year Ago

Ago

Ago

Annual Avg

Week Ending
5th June

Rs / Kg

Week

Month

Year Ago

Ago

Annual Avg

Ago

Rs / Kg

Rice
Samba
Kekulu (Red)
Vegetables
Beans
Cabbage
Carrots
Tomatoes
Pumpkins
Snake Gourd
Brinjals
Ash-Plantains

74.00
57.50

74.50
57.50

74.13
57.25

66.57
52.39

80.00
65.00

80.00
70.00

80.00
66.25

70.46
59.60

80.00

110.00

142.50

107.69

100.00

140.00

172.50

134.42

90.00

60.00

52.50

64.76

120.00

90.00

77.50

92.88

170.00

150.00

117.50

108.94

200.00

180.00

147.50

133.46

130.00

110.00

125.00

67.84

160.00

140.00

152.50

99.81

80.00

60.00

52.50

37.12

100.00

80.00

70.00

57.60

70.00

110.00

112.50

55.69

100.00

140.00

145.00

80.77

100.00

90.00

77.50

61.42

120.00

120.00

102.50

85.58

80.00

60.00

60.00

63.27

100.00

80.00

80.00

84.23

75.00

75.00

93.12

148.68

100.00

120.00

130.00

182.38

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

97.21

n.a.

n.a.

90.00

127.22

127.50

111.00

110.25

96.95

140.00

130.00

130.00

117.31

176.50

170.00

168.75

176.50

220.00

220.00

225.00

219.71

138.00

140.00

135.00

131.39

155.00

160.00

160.00

148.85

8.30

9.00

10.13

13.39

9.00

9.50

10.88

13.89

38.00

38.00

38.00

37.62

50.00

50.00

50.00

43.98

Kelawalla
400.00
420.00
445.00
Balaya
380.00
350.00
360.00
Salaya
160.00
120.00
125.00
Paraw (Small)
330.00
480.00
457.50
* Prices collected from the Fisheries Trade Centre, Peliyagoda.

387.27

540.00

480.00

515.00

477.31

280.00

420.00

400.00

407.50

341.76

134.71

200.00

160.00

162.50

179.04

442.60

390.00

520.00

510.00

505.60

Other Foods
Red-Onions (Local)
Big-Onions (Local)
Potatoes (N'Eliya)
Dried Chilies (Imported)
Dhal (Indian)
Eggs (Red)
Coconut (Each)
Fish*

page 02

62

90

2014
2013

D/1

D/5

N/1

S/1

O/1

A/1

Jy/1

J/1

D/1

N/1

O/1

S/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

M/1

Potatoes

160
130
100

2014
2013

70
40

D/5

D/1

N/1

Months

O/1

S/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

M/1

M/1

30

Months

J/1
J/4
F/3
M/2
A/1
A/4
M/3
J/2
Jy/1
Jy/4
A/3
S/2
O/1
O/4
N/3
D/2

60
F/1

M/1

J/1

Rs./kg

120

J/1

2014
2013

190

150

Rs./kg

270
240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
F/1

Rs./kg

D/5

D/1

N/1

O/1

S/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

M/1

M/1

Months

Potatoes

Months

Kelawalla

Kelawalla

625

Rs./kg

550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200

Months

Beans
2014
2013

180

2014
2013

550
475
400

2014
2013

325
J/1
J/4
F/3
M/2
A/1
A/4
M/3
J/2
Jy/1
Jy/4
A/3
S/2
O/1
O/4
N/3
D/2

250

J/1
J/4
F/3
M/2
A/1
A/4
M/3
J/2
Jy/1
Jy/4
A/3
S/2
O/1
O/4
N/3
D/2

Rs./kg

J/1

D/1

D/5

N/1

S/1

O/1

A/1

J/1

Jy/1

A/1

F/1

M/1

Months

Beans

240
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
J/1

Rs./kg

M/1

32

J/1

42

32.00

A/1

52

42.00

F/1

52.00

2014
2013

72

M/1

Rs./kg

62.00

F/1

Rs./kg

72.00

Rice - Kakulu

82

2014
2013

M/1

Rice - Kakulu

82.00

Months

Months

1.3 Dambulla Market

1.4 Narahenpita Economic Centre

Week Ending 5

Item (Rs / Kg)

Wholesale
(Average)

th

June

Item (Rs / Kg)

Retail (Average)

Rice

Average Retail Prices

4

th

June

Week Ago

Rice

Samba
Kekulu (Red)

76.50

78.10

60.00

63.50

Vegetables
81.00

122.50

144.00

183.00

98.00

142.00

61.00

78.50

77.50

109.00

45.00

70.00

64.50

87.00

Other Foods
Red-Onions (Local)
Big-Onions (Local)

77.00

66.00

60.00

Beans
Cabbage
Carrots
Tomatoes
Pumpkins
Snake Gourd

140.00

146.67

113.33

100.00

213.33

186.67

173.33

166.67

83.33

80.00

130.00

160.00

Brinjals

126.67

140.00

Ash-Plantains

100.00

106.67

Red-Onions (Imported)
Big-Onions (Imported)

143.33

140.00

80.00

80.00

Potatoes (Imported)

120.00

120.00

Dried Chilies (Imported)

220.00

220.00

Dhal (Indian)
Eggs (Red)(Each)

163.33

160.00

11.00

12.00

53.33

51.67

690.00

590.00

n.a. Other Foods

n.a.

Potatoes (N'Eliya)
Dried Chilies(Imported)
Coconut (Each)

113.00

131.00

185.50

226.50

32.00

39.50

Table 1.5 Maradagahamula Market

Average wholesale price of Rice
Item

77.00

Vegetables

Beans
Carrot
Tomatoes
Pumpkins
Snake Gourd
Ash-Plantains

(Rs / Kg)
Samba
Sudu Kekulu
Raw Red
Nadu

Samba
Kekulu (Red)

Week Ending

Week

Month

Year

6th June

Ago

Ago

Ago

74.90

75.32

74.52

62.64

65.30

65.52

65.18

52.03

60.60

60.10

61.85

49.55

69.40

69.50

67.39

53.71

Coconut (Each)
Fish
Kelawalla
Balaya
Salaya
Paraw (Small)
Page 03

n.a.

n.a.

133.33

120.00

790.00

740.00

1.6 Wage rate Indices

Item

2014(a)

2013

Mar

Mar

Change

Wage Indices (1978 = 100)

6000
5600

(1978 = 100)

2,313.2

0.0

Months

2,313.2

3200
14/J

7.9

3,204.4

3,459.1

3600
M

0.3

Jy

4,434.6

4000

4,449.0

Wages
Boards

4400

13/J

1.5

3,881.7

3,938.1

4800

Workers in Wages Boards Trades

Agriculture
Industry & Commerce
Services

Central Govt.

5200

Jy

8.3

5,483.2

12/J

5,939.0

Index Value

Central Government Employees (b)

(a) Provisional

1.7 Factory Industry-Production (FIPI) ( 2010 = 100 ) (a)

2014 (b)

2013

February

February

Change

130

109.8

105.0

4.5

103.5

-8.6

120

98.1

0.0

88.3

-1.2

114.9

22.0

90

75.0

-6.4

109.0

14.7

80

100.8

2.9

2014*

2013

Jan - Apr

Jan - Apr

Change

102.4

115.6

-11.4

Jan - Mar

Jan - Mar

(Mn Kg)

32.8

33.2

-1.1

(Mn Nuts)

683.4

637.8

7.1

Factory Industry- Production Index

Food products
94.6
Beverages
98.2
Tobacco products
87.3
Wearing apparel
140.2
Chemicals and chemical products
70.2
Rubber and plastic products
125.0
Other non-metallic mineral products
103.7
(a) Major 7 sub divisions of FIPI out of 17 sub divisions.
(b) Provisional

Factory Industrial Production

Index

Item

110
100

2013
2014
J

Jy

Months

Item

Unit

Tea

(Mn Kg)

Rubber

Mn.kg.

1.8 Agriculture Production

Tea Production

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

2014
2013
J

Coconuts
* Provisional

J Jy Au S

Months

1.9 GDP by Industrial Origin at Constant (2002) Prices - Growth Rates

2013*
4

th

Quarter

2012
4

th

Quarter

2013
Annual

Agriculture

10.4

0.3

4.7

Industry

10.7

13.4

9.9

Services

6.5

3.7

6.4

8.2

6.3

7.3

GDP
* Provisional

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

Page 04

Percentage Change

Item

9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

Real GDP

10' 10' 10' 10' 11' 11' 11' 11' 12' 12' 12' 12' 13' 13' 13' 13'
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Quater

1.10 Employment (a)

Item

2013

2012

2013

4th Quarter

4th Quarter

Annual

53.0

53.5

53.8

4.1

3.9

4.4

30.6

32.0(c)

29.7

25.2

26.0(c)

26.2

44.2

42.0(c)

44.1

Labour Force Participation rate

Unemployment rate
Employed Persons by Sectors % (b)
Agriculture
Industry
Services

Source: Department of Census and Statistics

(a) The working age population aged 15 and above

(b) Based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) - Revision 4
(c) Based on the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) - Revision 3

Unemployment Rate

12
10

Brent
WTI

120

5.3 5.2

5.1 5.2

Index Value

6.2 5.7 5.4

5.9
4.6 4.1
4.5 4.2 3.9
5.3
5.0 4.9
4.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.1

100
80

Jan-14

Apr-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Jan-13

Months

Apr-13

Jul-12

3Q
13

Oct-12

1Q
13

Jan-12

Year/Quarter

3Q
12

Apr-12

3Q 1Q 11 3Q
10
11

Jul-11

1Q
10

Jan-11

3Q
09

Oct-11

60
'1Q '3Q 1Q
08 08 09

Apr-11

Rate

Crude Oil Prices

140

1.11 Average Crude Oil Prices

2013

2014

Spot Prices (US $/bbl)

Month

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

CPC Import

Brent

WTI

(Benchmark

(Benchmark

price)

price)

113.95

94.76

Prices (C&F)
(US$/bbl)(*)
111.22

Spot Prices (US $/bbl)

WTI

(Benchmark

(Benchmark

price)

price)

109.21

94.71

112.75
110.62

May
June
June
June
June

Prices (C&F)
(US$/bbl)(*)

117.39

95.32

111.16

110.01

100.82

109.63

92.94

106.57

108.28

100.82

111.17

103.40

92.02

111.17

108.22

102.07

110.25

110.22

102.18

103.04

94.51

108.91

103.16

95.77

105.29

108.62

104.51

112.94

106.58

113.48

113.63

106.19

111.01

109.88

100.54

108.10

93.77

110.39

97.62

112.13

111.37
2013

30
02
03
04
05

CPC Import

Brent

2014

102.19

93.57

110.01

103.40

110.14

103.07

102.03

93.41

109.67

103.34

102.29

93.36

109.87

103.27

103.76

93.66

109.23

103.17

Sources: Reuters
Energy Information Administration
Ceylon Petroleum Corporation
(*) CPC import prices are not directly comparable with spot prices of WTI and Brent as CPC is import prices include freight charges and the price is
weighted for average prices of different types of crude oil. Also Part of the imports of CPC are on a term contract basis.

Page 05

Monetary Sector
Short term interest rates continued to adjust downwards compared to
the previous week.
Weekly AWPR for the week ending 06 June 2014 insreased by 2 bps to
8.19 per cent compared to the previous week.

The reserve money increased compared to the previous week mainly due
to increase in deposits by the commercial banks with the Central Bank.

The total outstanding market liquidity dropped from the Rs. 249 bn that
prevailed at the beginning of the week, to Rs. 245 bn by the end of the
week. Majority of the liquidity has been absorbed through the Term Repo
and Short-term Repo auctions.

By 06 June 2014, the All Share Price Index (ASPI) increased by 0.25 per
cent to 6,279 points while the S&P SL 20 Index increased by 0.71 per
cent to 3,479 points compared to the previous week.

page 06

Key Highlights

Broad money (M2b) expanded by 14.5 per cent in March 2014.

NFA of the banking system increased by Rs. 24.8 billion in March 2014
compared to February 2014.
NCG from the banking system increased by Rs. 48.6 billion in March 2014
compared to February 2014, while credit to public corporations declined
by Rs. 9.9 billion.
Credit extended to the private sector showed a increase in March 2014,
compared to February 2014 despite of decline in pawning advances and
repayment of short term advances obtained by BOI companies from
Offshore Banking Units(OBUs).

2.1 Interest Rates

Week Ending

Item
Commercial Bank Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR)
Treasury Bill Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax)
- 91 days
- 182 days
- 364 days
Standing Deposit Facility
Standing Lending Facility
Call Money Weekly Average (CMR)
Sri Lanka Inter Bank Offer Rate ( SLIBOR )
1 day
7 days
1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
12 Months
Commercial Banks
Saving Deposits One Year Fixed Deposits -

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR)

NSB
Saving Deposits One Year Fixed Deposits Treasury Bonds Auction

June 06

8.19

8.17

12.75

6.55

6.56

8.70

6.73

6.75

9.81

7.01

7.02

10.85

6.50

6.50

7.00

8.00

8.50

9.00

6.96

6.94

8.74

7.00

6.99

8.61

7.42

7.42

9.53
10.45

7.71

7.73

7.99

8.00

11.77

8.41

8.43

12.39

8.88

8.89

12.93

Month Ago

Year Ago

0.75-9.00

0.75-9.00

0.75-10.50

5.60-15.50

5.60-15.60

5.00-16.50

May 2014

Month Ago

Year Ago

7.74

8.06

10.74

9.45

9.91

13.90

Apr 2014

Month Ago

Year Ago

14.18

14.44

16.45

Feb 2014

Month Ago

Year Ago

5.00

5.00

5.00

8.00

9.50

12.50

(05 Y & 01 Months)

(14 Y & 07 Months)

(30 Months)

27/05/2014

27/05/2014

27/05/2014

10.60

13.00

13.50

8.93

10.88

11.75

Coupon rate
Weighted Average Yield (Excluding 10% withholding tax)
Week ending

Year Ago

Feb 2014

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR)

Commercial Bank Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR)

Bankwise- AWPR

Week Ago

June 06

Bankwise- AWPR

Week Ago

Week ending
June 06

Week Ago

Bank of Ceylon

11.03

11.17

HSBC

10.74

10.75

People's Bank

13.00

13.00

Standard Chartered Bank

7.97

8.03

Hatton National Bank

8.05

8.09

Citi Bank

8.33

8.48

Commercial Bank of Ceylon

7.87

7.77

Deutsche Bank

7.76

9.72

Sampath Bank

8.05

8.31

Habib Bank

6.82

7.09

Seylan Bank

8.78

8.12

Indian Bank

9.88

10.22

Union Bank of Colombo

8.60

8.17

Indian Overseas Bank

10.65

8.65

Pan Asia Banking Corporation

9.00

9.50

MCB Bank

Nations Trust Bank

7.32

7.47

DFCC Vardhana Bank

10.51

NDB Bank

7.73

Amana Bank
Cargills Bank

9.17

9.93

State Bank of India

10.48

10.99

11.19

Public Bank

10.50

13.10

7.81

ICICI Bank

9.74

9.78

9.08

9.96

Axis Bank

12.00

12.00

Call Money Rates

12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5

Min

J /14

Months

Jy

J /13

Jy

J /12

Rate

Rate

Avg

Weekly

9.4
9.2
9.0
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.2
8.0
7.8
7.6
7.4

Min
Avg

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19

Last 4 Weeks

Page 07

2.2 Money Supply

Rs. Bn.

Item
M1
M2
M2b
Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System (b)
Monetary Authorities
Domestic Banking Units (DBUs)
Foreign currency Banking Units (FCBUs)
Net Domestic Assets of the Banking System (b)
DBUs
FCBUs
Net Credit to Government
Monetary Authorities
DBUs
FCBUs
Credit to Corporations
DBUs
FCBUs
Credit to the Private Sector
DBUs
FCBUs
Reserve Money
(a) Provisional (b) In relation to M2b

4.5

2013
2014

-5.5
F

Jy

Month

Year

2014 (a)

Month

Year

March

Ago

Ago

March

Ago

Ago

511.4

491.6

465.4

9.9

9.9

3.7

3,165.8

3,120.2

2,749.4

15.1

16.1

18.5

3,538.1

3,495.4

3,089.7

14.5

14.7

15.6

93.6

68.8

-105.6

188.6

256.7

-640.3

597.8

618.7

393.9

51.8

60.6

12.2

-176.4

-198.7

-155.7

-13.3

-56.1

-23.7

-327.8

-351.3

-343.8

4.7

-16.3

-67.1

3,444.5

3,426.6

3,195.3

7.8

10.8

20.4

2,988.6

2,941.9

2,734.7

9.3

10.8

16.9

455.9

484.7

460.6

-1.0

11.0

46.4

1,393.2

1,344.6

1,180.5

18.0

20.5

18.5

145.3

162.1

265.1

-45.2

-33.9

-18.9

1,054.9

989.2

774.4

36.2

35.7

41.9

193.0

193.3

141.0

36.9

36.8

14.0

330.0

339.8

335.5

-1.7

13.3

35.8

137.9

133.5

101.4

36.0

40.2

51.8

192.0

206.3

234.1

-18.0

0.8

29.9

2,498.3

2,490.7

2,395.6

4.3

4.4

10.9

2,298.9

2,283.6

2,209.6

4.0

4.3

12.0

199.3

207.1

186.0

7.2

5.3

-1.5

521.6

494.6

512.4

1.8

1.6

8.8

24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13

2013
2014

20

2013
2014
J

Months

Money Supply - M2b

22

Percentage

Percentage

Percentage

9.5

2014 (a)

Money Supply - M2

Money Supply - M1

-0.5

Annual Change (%)

J Jy A

Months

18
16
14
12
J

M A

J Jy A

Months

2.3 Weekly change in Reserve Money

Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.)

Gross Volume (Rs. Mn)
Repo Market
Weighted Average Rate (% p.a.)
Gross Volume (Rs. Mn)

6.95

6.96

6.97

6.96

6.95

6,375

6,750

5,600

7,140

7,920

6.50

6.51

6.52

6.53

6.53

5,779

4,918

5,088

3,606

7,191

2.5 CBSL Security Portfolio

Item
CBSL T-Bill Holding (Rs. Mn)

02.06.2014 03.06.2014 04.06.2014 05.06.2014 06.06.2014

14,388

276

277
Page 08

33

289

400

Months

D/2

Call Money Market

450

A/1

02.06.2014 03.06.2014 04.06.2014 05.06.2014 06.06.2014

S/3

Item

500

J/4

2.4 Money Market Activity (Overnight)

2014
2013

550

O/4

12,311

Weekly change in
Reserve Money

M/2

492,037

600

Rs.Bn.

504,348

Change

M/5

Reserve Money (Rs.Mn.)

Week Ago

J/1

2014

F/3

05 June

Item

2.6 Open Market Operations

Item

02.06.2014 03.06.2014

04.06.2014

05.06.2014

06.06.2014

Short-Term Auction
Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn)

26.00

20.00

0.00

11.00

33.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Tenure (No. of Days)

Bids Received (Rs. bn)

10.83

14.40

0.00

12.00

15.80

Amount Accepted (Rs. bn)

Weighted Average Yield Rate (% p.a.)

7.33
6.61

14.40
6.60

0.00
0.00

11.00
6.54

15.80
6.63

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00

23.95
0.00

Reverse Repo Amount Offered (Rs. bn)

Term Auction
Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn)
Reverse Repo Amount Accepted (Rs. bn)

Standing Facility
Standing Deposit Facility (Rs. bn)

11.25

5.41

6.68

4.22

17.30

Standing Lending Facility (Rs. bn)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

248.51

257.07

258.34

266.87

244.50

Total Outstanding Market Liquidity (Rs. bn)

2.7 Credit Cards *

Item

2014 (a)

2013

2012

End Jan

End Dec

End Dec

Total Number of Active Cards

Local (accepted only locally)
Global (accepted globally)
Outstanding balance (Rs. Mn.)
Local (accepted only locally)
Global (accepted globally)
(a) Provisional
* Issued by Licensed Commercial Banks

951,625

891,170

35,763

35,990

39,963

920,655

915,635

851,207

51,631

51,172

44,445

1,258

1,260

1,183

50,373

49,913

43,262

Commercial Paper Issues

2014

2013

2012

End Jan*

End Dec

End Dec

Total Issues - Cummulative

Outstandin (as at end of the period )

29.9

28.3

36.9

7.1

7.4

10.6

(a) provisional
(1) Based on the information provided by Licensed Commercial Banks and

Rs.Bn

2.8 Commercial Paper Issues (1)

Item ( Rs. bn.)

956,418

40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

2012
J F M A M J Jy A S O N D
Month

Licensed Specialised Banks

2.9 Share Market

Week Ending
06 June 2014

Item

Week Ago

Year Ago

All Share Price Index (1985 = 100) (ASPI)

6,279

6,263

6,372

S & P Sri Lanka 20 Index (S&P SL20)

3,479

3,455

3,596

787

804

940

2,630

2,623

2,447

Average Daily Turnover (Rs. Mn)

Index

Market Capitalisation (Rs.Bn.)

7000
6500
6000
5500
5000
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

Share Market - Month End

J ,12 M

ASPI
S&P

M Jy

N J '13 M

Months

Page 09

M Jy

Fiscal Sector
Government revenue as a percentage of GDP declined in 2013 compared to
the previous year. However, it increased in nominal terms due to the
favourable performance in tax revenue specifically from income taxes,
Value Added Tax (VAT) on both domestic activities and imports, the
Special Commodity Levy (SCL) and excise tax on motor vehicles reflecting
a pickup in economic activity supported by the gradual recovery of the
global economy.
Total expenditure and net lending as a percentage of GDP declined in 2013
reflecting measures taken by the government to rationalise recurrent
expenditure, while maintaining public investment to continue strategically
important infrastructure development projects.

page 10

Key Highlights

Even though total outstanding government debt as at end 2013 increased

in nominal terms compared to the previous year, as a percentage of GDP it
continued the declining trend observed in the recent past.

3.1 Government Finance (Rs.bn)

2013 *

Revenue and Grants

Revenue
Tax
Non tax
Grants
Expenditure & Lending Minus Repayments
Current
Capital & Lending Minus Repayments

2012**

1,153.3

1,067.5

1,137.4

1,051.5

1,005.9

908.9

131.6
15.9

142.5
16.1

1,669.4

1,556.5

1,205.2

1,131.0

464.2

425.5

* Provisional **Revised

Government Revenue &

Expenditure 2013
1800
Revenue

1500
1200

Rs.Bn.

Item

900
600
300
0
'13 Q1

'13 Q2
'13 Q3
Months

'13 Q4

3.2 Government Debt (Rs.bn)

2013*
Dec

Item
Total domestic debt
of which
Treasury bills
Treasury bonds
Rupee loans

3,832.8

Year
ago

3,232.8

Rs.Bn

Government Debt 2013

5000

Domestic
Foreign

4000

700.1

629.1 3000

2,452.4

2,095.1 2000
58.4

55.5

Total foreign debt

Total outstanding govt. debt

1000

2,960.4

2,767.3

6,793.2

6,000.1

'13 Q1 '13 Q2 '13 Q3 '13 Q4

* Provisional

3.3 Government Securities - Primary and Secondary Market Yield Rates as for the week ending 04 June 2014
Primary Market*
Security

Maturity

This Week

Last Week

Buying

Secondary Market
This Week
Selling Average

3 Months
6.55%
6.56%
6.66%
6.55%
Treasury Bills
6 Months
6.73%
6.75%
6.83%
6.73%
12 Months
7.01%
7.02%
7.04%
6.94%
2 < Years
7.52%
7.43%
5 < Years
8.91%
8.93%
9.38%
9.31%
6 < Years
9.86%
9.76%
8 < Years
9.93%
10.00%
10.21%
10.09%
Treasury Bonds
10 < Years
10.10%
10.56%
10.43%
15 < Years
10.85%
10.88%
10.90%
10.78%
20 < Years
11.32%
11.10%
10.93%
30 < Years
11.75%
11.75%
* Primary market transactions during the week ending 04/06/2014
The primary market and the secondary market yield rates have continued their progressive decline due to

13.00%
12.00%
11.00%
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%

Treasury Bills

13.00%

Current

Treasury Bonds

12.00%

Year Ago

11.00%

Yield

Yield

economic variables and low inflation expectation.

10.00%
9.00%

8.00%
7.00%
6.00%

Page 11

Current
Year Ago

Last Week
Average

6.61%

6.62%

6.78%

6.77%

6.99%

6.99%

7.47%

7.55%

9.35%

9.50%

9.81%

9.82%

10.15%

10.18%

10.49%

10.53%

10.84%

10.85%

11.01%

11.03%

the benign macro

3.4 Government Securities - Weekly Summary of Primary and Secondary Market Transactions
(Week Ended - 04 June 2014 )
Volume in Rs Mn

Item

This Week

Last Week

Outstanding Stock of Government Securities

Treasury Bills

788,184.63

Treasury Bonds (a)

Total
Government Securities held by Foreigners

798,996.06

3,038,111.59

3,026,287.22

3,826,296.22

3,825,283.28

507,275.95

505,175.33

Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDB)

372,701.77
372,482.94
Foreign holdings on government securities have continuously increased showing progressive improvement of foreign
investor confidence.
Volume in Rs Mn

Primary Market Activities

This Week

Last Week

Treasury Bills
Amount Offered

10,000.00

12,000.00

Total Bids Received

43,825.00

35,353.00

19,090.00

18,587.00

Total Bids Accepted

Treasury Bonds

5,000.00

Amount Offered
No auction held

Total Bids Received

17,755.00
5,950.00

Total Bids Accepted

The participation to the auction has increased, illustrating the improved investor preference for the government securities.
Volume in Rs Mn

Secondary Market Activities

This Week

Treasury Bills
Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases)
Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases)
Treasury Bonds
Outright Transaction (Sales / Purchases)
Repo Transaction (Sales / Purchases)

Last Week

36,709.15

25,190.64

356,366.31

325,492.58

75,323.74

75,138.50

252,999.38

256,304.77

More activities are observed in the secondary market during the week, showing improved investor participation with higher
confidence.
a) Excludes Treasury bonds amounting to Rs.4,397 million issued to CWE in November 2003, Rs. 78,441 million issued to settle dues to
CPC in January 2012,Rs. 13,125 million issued to capitalize Sri Lankan Airlines in March 2013.

3.5 Two way Quotes (Treasury Bills) - 06/06/2014

Remaining Maturity

Average Buying
Price

Yield %

Average Selling
Price

Yield %

Buying & Selling

Spread

1-7 Days

99.88

6.50

99.88

6.35

1 Month

99.46

6.58

99.47

6.47

0.01

2 Month

98.91

6.63

98.93

6.52

0.02

3 Month

98.36

6.65

98.38

6.55

0.02

4 Month

97.73

6.73

97.82

6.62

0.09

5 Month

97.15

6.76

97.26

6.66

0.12

6 Month

96.65

6.80

96.69

6.71

0.04

7 Month

96.06

6.85

96.12

6.75

0.06

8 Month

95.47

6.88

95.54

6.78

0.07

0.00

9 Month

94.88

6.92

94.96

6.82

0.07

10 Month

94.28

6.95

94.36

6.86

0.07

11 Month

93.68

6.99

93.76

6.91

0.08

12 Month

93.06

7.04

93.14

6.96

0.08

page 12

3.5 Two way Quotes (Treasury Bonds)- 06/06/2014

Treasury Bond
By Series
11.25%2014A
09.00%2014A
06.20%2015A
11.75%2015A
06.20%2015B
06.50%2015A
11.00%2015A
11.00%2015B
12.50%2015A
08.50%2015A
07.25%2016A
08.00%2016B
06.40%2016A
08.00%2016A
06.40%2016B
08.00%2017A
05.80%2017A
08.25%2017A
08.75%2017A
08.00%2017B
05.80%2017B
08.50%2018A
08.50%2018C
08.50%2018D
08.50%2018B
07.50%2018A
08.00%2018A
05.65%2019A
08.50%2019A
10.60%2019A
08.00%2019A
08.00%2020A
06.20%2020A
09.00%2021A
08.00%2022A
11.20%2022A
09.00%2023A
07.00%2023A
11.40%2024A
09.00%2025A
09.00%2026A
05.35%2026A
09.00%2028B
09.00%2028A
13.00%2029A
08.00%2032A
09.00%2032A
09.00%2033A
13.25%2033A
09.00%2033B
13.25%2034A
09.00%2043A
13.50%2044A
13.50%2044B

Maturity
Period
(Years)
5
2
4
6
4
5
6
6
2
3
6
4
6
5
6
5
6
3
4
5
6
15
5
5
15
15
6
8
10
6
8
8
10
8
10
9
10
20
10
12
13
15
15
15
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
30
30
30

Maturity Date

Days to

Average

(DD/MM/YY)

Maturity

Buying Price

15-Jul-14
1-Oct-14
15-Jan-15
15-Mar-15
15-Jun-15
15-Jul-15
1-Aug-15
1-Sep-15
20-Sep-15
1-Nov-15
1-Apr-16
1-Jun-16
1-Aug-16
1-Sep-16
1-Oct-16
1-Jan-17
15-Jan-17
1-Mar-17
15-May-17
15-Jun-17
15-Jul-17
1-Feb-18
1-Apr-18
1-Jun-18
15-Jul-18
15-Aug-18
15-Nov-18
15-Jan-19
1-May-19
1-Jul-19
1-Nov-19
1-Jun-20
1-Aug-20
1-May-21
1-Jan-22
1-Jul-22
1-Sep-23
1-Oct-23
1-Jan-24
1-May-25
1-Feb-26
1-Mar-26
1-May-28
1-Jul-28
1-Jan-29
1-Jan-32
1-Oct-32
1-Jun-33
1-Jul-33
1-Nov-33
1-Jan-34
1-Jun-43
1-Jan-44
1-Jun-44

39
117
223
282
374
404
421
452
471
513
665
726
787
818
848
940
954
999
1074
1105
1135
1336
1395
1456
1500
1531
1623
1684
1790
1851
1974
2187
2248
2521
2766
2947
3374
3404
3496
3982
4258
4286
5078
5139
5323
6418
6692
6935
6965
7088
7149
10587
10801
10953

100.46
100.65
99.62
103.52
99.16
99.41
104.20
104.46
106.38
101.70
99.86
101.09
97.91
101.02
97.22
100.53
95.25
101.05
102.36
99.98
94.06
100.29
100.47
100.30
100.04
96.76
97.90
88.94
98.49
107.08
96.14
94.35
84.92
97.66
91.02
106.95
94.03
81.54
107.95
91.89
90.64
65.61
88.64
86.36
115.28
76.14
83.67
82.17
114.90
81.71
114.64
79.11
114.83

page 13

Yield %
6.62
6.80
6.84
6.97
7.07
7.06
7.13
7.15
7.20
7.20
7.32
7.40
7.46
7.49
7.73
7.76
7.84
7.81
7.83
8.01
7.99
8.40
8.35
8.41
8.48
8.43
8.58
8.61
8.88
8.83
8.91
9.25
9.49
9.47
9.70
9.93
10.00
10.10
10.08
10.25
10.40
10.52
10.58
10.92
10.88
11.12
11.10
11.30
11.33
11.35
11.37
11.50
11.70

Average
Selling Price
100.48
100.68
99.66
103.60
99.24
99.51
104.32
104.58
106.48
101.81
99.95
101.23
98.07
101.17
97.37
100.70
95.37
101.22
102.52
100.24
94.23
100.55
100.69
101.00
100.33
96.97
98.14
89.11
98.88
107.27
96.38
95.01
85.52
98.03
91.52
107.50
94.46
82.24
108.48
92.50
91.58
66.37
89.47
87.87
116.09
77.23
84.86
83.26
116.43
82.88
116.41
80.14
116.13

Yield %
6.50
6.72
6.76
6.86
6.98
6.96
7.03
7.05
7.13
7.11
7.27
7.33
7.38
7.41
7.65
7.69
7.79
7.74
7.77
7.91
7.93
8.32
8.28
8.20
8.40
8.37
8.51
8.56
8.78
8.79
8.85
9.10
9.34
9.39
9.60
9.83
9.93
9.97
10.00
10.15
10.25
10.37
10.45
10.68
10.78
10.94
10.93
11.14
11.15
11.18
11.17
11.35
11.56

Buying & Selling

Spread
0.01
0.03
0.04
0.08
0.09
0.10
0.11
0.12
0.10
0.12
0.09
0.14
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.17
0.11
0.18
0.15
0.26
0.17
0.26
0.22
0.70
0.28
0.21
0.23
0.17
0.39
0.19
0.24
0.66
0.60
0.37
0.50
0.56
0.43
0.70
0.53
0.61
0.94
0.76
0.83
1.51
0.81
1.09
1.19
1.09
1.54
1.17
1.77
1.03
1.30

External Sector
During the year so far (up to 06 June 2014) the rupee appreciated
against the US dollar (0.36 per cent). Given the cross currency exchange
rate movements, the Sri Lanka rupee appreciated against the euro (1.40
per cent) and depreciated against the pound sterling (1.59 per cent), the
Japanese yen (2.11 per cent) and Indian rupee (4.20 per cent) during this
period.

The reduction in import price index year-on-year, over increase in export

price index resulted in an improvement in the terms of trade in February
2014.
Import price index declined mainly due to the decline in the average
price level of investment goods.
Average price levels of many exported items, including tea and coconut
categorized under agricultural exports and rubber products, gems,
diamond and jewellery and chemical products categorized under
industrial exports increased in February 2014, leading to an overall
increase in the export price index.

The average price of tea in the Colombo auction increase in March 2014
compared to the corresponding month of 2013, but slightly declined
compared to the previous month.

India, UK, Germany, China and France were the top five sources of
tourist arrivals upto May 2014, accounting for 45 per cent of total
tourist arrivals during the year upto May 2014.

page 14

Key Highlights

Continuing the increasing trend observed from June 2013, earnings from
exports increased in March 2014, led by improved performance in
industrial exports followed by agricultural exports.
Expenditure on imports also increased in March 2014, reflecting
increases in intermediate and consumer goods imports.
The trade deficit in March 2014 contracted significantly, as the growth
in export earnings of 28.6 per cent outpaced the 8.2 per cent increase in
import expenditure.

4.1 Exchange Rates

Week Ending - June 06

Year
Ago

128.84

131.71

130.28

130.44

126.52

215.91

222.09

219.00

218.17

194.70

1.25

1.29

1.27

1.29

1.28

175.02

180.75

177.89

177.38

165.50

2.20

2.21

2.23

200.66

200.98

190.73

March
2014

Month
Ago

Year
Ago

81.90

40.95

17.00

74.25

19.30

0.00

Purchases
Sales

STG
US$

160
120

Months

80
J/13

(US$ Mn. )

200

J /12

( As at 05 June 2014 )

Central Bank purchases and sales**

Month End

240

Week
Ago

J/14

Average
Rate

US$
STG
Yen
Euro
INR(1)
SDR

Selling
Rate

J/11

Buying
Rate

(Rs Per Unit)*

Average Rate

Rate

Item

Week Ending
June 06

Week
Ago

Year
Ago

81.51

65.97

46.77

130.81

130.87

127.31

131.55

131.76

128.82

32.00

28.77

14.94

1,068.49

1,056.38

1,057.47

Average Daily Interbank Volume (US$ Mn.)

(spot, tom and cash transactions among commercial banks)
Forward Transactions
(2)

Forward Rates (US$)

1 Month
3 Months
Average Daily Interbank Forward Volume (US$ mn)
Outstanding Forward Volume (US$ mn)
( As at 05 June 2014 )
*Commercial Bank Avg. Middle Rate (prevailing at 9.30a.m.)

**Central Bank purchases and sales of foreign exchange from commercial banks at market rates total for the Month
(1) Central Bank indicative rate (2) Weekly average based on actual transactions.

4.2 Tourism & Workers' Remittances

2013
May (b)

Item(a)
Tourist Arrivals

Number

Earnings from Tourism

US$ Mn.
Rs.bn.

Workers' Remittances (Inflows)

US$ Mn.
Rs. bn.

(a) Provisional

2013
Jan - May(b)

74,838

2014
May
90,046

100.7
12.7

130.1
17

663.9
84.0

2013

2014

2013

Apr (b)

Apr

Jan-Apr (b)

Jan-Apr

515.3
64.9

554
72.4

1,998.4
253.0

2,217.40
289.8

US$ Mn

No of arrivals '000

2013
2014

130
110
90
70
50
J

Jy

Month

493,294

901.8
117.8
2014

Tourist Arrivals Cumulative

150

2014
Jan - May
624,178

800
700
600
500
400
300
200

Private Remittances - Inflows

2014
2013
J

Page 15

J Jy A

Month

% Change
26.5
35.8
40.2

% Change
11.0
14.6

4.3 International Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity as at 31 March 2014 (a)
Official Reserve Assets (USD mn)
(b)

Official Reserve Assets

(1) Foreign currency reserves
(a) Securities
(b) Total currency and deposits with
(i) other national central banks
(ii) banks headquartered inside the reporting country of which located abroad
(iii) banks headquartered outside the reporting country of which located in the
repoprting country
(2) Reserve position in the IMF
(3) SDRs
(4) Gold
(5) Other reserve assets

8,059.72
7,078.31
3,570.09
3,508.22
1,050.64
0.82
2,456.75
73.97
8.48
897.98
0.99

Predetermined Short-Term Net Drains on Foreign Currency Assets(c)

Maturity breakdown (residual maturity)
Item

Total

Up to 1
month

More than 1

More than 3

and up to 3

months and up to

months

1 year

1. Foreign currency loans, securities, and deposits

outflows ()
inflows (+)

Principal
Interest
Principal
Interest

-3,385.15

-79.20

-644.88

-2,661.06

-942.06

-41.28

-38.85

-861.93

-1,966.96

-629.03

-305.00

-1,032.93

-0.53

-0.53

-0.53

-0.53

2. Aggregate short and long positions in forwards and

futures in foreign currencies vis--vis the domestic currency
(including the forward leg of currency swaps)
(a) Short positions ()(d)
(b) Long positions (+)
3. Other (specify)
inflows related to reverse repos (+)
other accounts payable ()
(a) Provisional
(b) By end March 2014, the total foreign assets were equivalent to 6.3 months of imports and gross official reserves
were equivalent to 5.3 months of imports
(c) This mainly includes only the predetermined outflows
(d) A major share of SWAP outstanding will be rolled over. This mainly includes SWAP arrangements with state banks
which mobilised long-term foreign finance from international bond issuances

Page 16

4.4 External Trade

US$ Bn

Item

Jan-Mar

Jan-Mar

2014

2013

Exports
Agricultural
Industrial
Food, Beverages and Tobacco
Textiles and Apparel
Petroleum Products
Leather, Rubber etc
Other
Mineral
Other
Imports
Consumer Goods
Intermediate Goods
Investment Goods
Other

Imports

22500
20000
17500
15000
12500
10000
7500
5000
2500
0

% Change

Jan-Mar

Jan-Mar

2014

2013

2.36

19.1

367.17

299.02

22.8

0.66

0.55

19.9

86.41

69.88

23.6

2.11

1.80

17.0

275.39

228.24

20.7

0.08

0.05

51.9

10.48

6.69

56.7

1.26

1.05

20.5

165.34

133.12

24.2

0.10

0.11

-10.7

12.56

13.64

-7.9

0.26

0.22

19.1

33.51

27.28

22.8

0.41

0.37

9.2

53.50

47.51

12.6

0.04

0.00

831.5

4.91

0.51

859.8

0.00

0.00

19.1

0.47

0.39

22.8

4.67

4.51

3.6

610.55

571.87

6.8

0.78

0.71

9.7

102.02

90.18

13.1

2.91

2.64

10.1

379.88

334.77

13.5

0.98

1.16

-15.1

128.36

146.66

-12.5

0.00

0.00

9.7

0.30

0.26

13.1

-1.86

-2.15

13.5

-243.38

-272.85

10.8

TRADE INDICES

Terms
(2010=100)

of Trade

128

Tea Prices(Auction)

550

10000

500

Jy

6000
4000

2013

2000

Months

0
J

Jy

Months

108

Rs./Kg.

Index Value

8000

2013
2014

88

2013

68

Jy

Rice rices(Imported)

120

2014**

Month

Year

February

Ago

Ago

117.05

124.99

111.02

111.24

105.59

107.29

105.22

118.38

103.48

100

120.35

148.02

128.27

110.61

139.45

115.56

108.80

106.14

111.00

96.71

111.52

93.22

** Provisional

80

2013

60

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

Crude Oil (Imported)

18

Rs'000./Barrel.

Terms of Trade

Months

Total Imports
Value
Quantity
Unit Value

2013
2014

350

Months

Total Exports
Value
Quantity
Unit Value

400

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Rs./Kg.

Item

450

300

4.5 Trade Indices (2010= 100 )

* In US$ Terms

% Change

2.81

Exports

12000

US$ Mn

US$ Mn

Trade Balance

Rs Bn

15
12

2013
2014

J F M A M J Jy A S O N D

Months

4.6 International Commodity Prices

Item

Mar
2014

Mar
2013

Colombo Auction Price

Tea Prices

% Change

Mar
2014

US$ / Kg
3.59

Imports (C I F)

3.48

Mar
2013

% Change

Rs / Kg
3.20

469.45

US$ / MT

441.51

6.30

Rs / MT

Rice

816.32

851.72

-4.20

106,634.73

108,010.66

-1.30

White Sugar

462.34

550.91

-16.10

60,394.42

69,863.06

-13.60

Wheat

333.68

388.41

-14.10

43,587.89

49,256.43

-11.50

US$ / Barrel
Crude Oil

111.17
Page 17

106.57

Rs / Barrel
4.30

14,522.20

13,514.15

7.50