1037

Guided Solutions to Exercises

with Solutions that Vary


2.158 The answers to this will vary. Some things that should be included in the discussion are:

From the graph, it is obvious that the amount of money spent on education has increased tremendously
over the period from 1966 to 2000 (from about $4.5 billion in 1966 to about $22.5 billion in 2000).
However, one should note that the number of students has also increased. It might be better to reflect the
amount of money spent as the amount of money spent per student over the years from 1966 to 2000 rather
than the total amount spent.

In the description of the exercise, it says that the horizontal line represents the annual average fourth-grade
childrens reading ability. It also indicates that the fourth-grade reading test scores are designed to have an
average of 250 with a standard deviation of 50. Thus, regardless of whether the childrens reading abilities
increase or decrease, the annual average will always be 250. This line does not give any information about
whether the childrens reading abilities are improving or not.

In addition, if the reading scores of seventh and twelfth graders and the mathematics scores of fourth
graders improved over the same time period, one could conclude that the reading scores of the fourth
graders also improved over the same time period.

Thus, this graph does not support the governments position that our children are not making classroom
improvements despite federal spending on education. This graph only portrays that the total amount of
money spent on education over the time period from 1966 to 2000 increased.

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1038 Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary


4.157 The answers to this will vary. After selecting 100 samples of size n = 2 from the bag with coins marked 0,
2, 4, and 6 with replacement, the values of x for the 100 samples are:


x
1
x
2
x x
1
x
2
x x
1
x
2
x x
1
x
2
x
2 2 2 2 6 4 6 2 4 6 0 3
2 4 3 4 0 2 6 0 3 2 4 3
0 2 1 2 4 3 2 4 3 2 4 3
6 0 3 6 4 5 0 0 0 2 2 2
4 4 4 2 4 3 2 4 3 6 2 4
4 2 3 4 6 5 0 4 2 2 6 4
2 2 2 0 4 2 4 6 5 4 6 5
2 4 3 4 2 3 2 4 3 6 0 3
2 0 1 0 2 1 2 6 4 6 4 5
2 2 2 2 4 3 4 6 5 6 0 3
0 0 0 6 4 5 2 4 3 4 4 4
4 0 2 4 6 5 2 4 3 2 6 4
6 4 5 2 4 3 2 0 1 0 0 0
2 0 1 4 2 3 4 4 4 4 6 5
4 4 4 0 2 1 0 4 2 4 2 3
4 2 3 6 2 4 0 4 2 4 0 2
4 4 4 0 2 1 4 2 3 2 6 4
4 6 5 6 2 4 2 4 3 2 2 2
2 6 4 4 2 3 2 4 3 6 6 6
2 4 3 0 2 1 4 4 4 2 6 4
6 4 5 4 4 4 2 4 3 4 4 4
4 2 3 2 2 2 4 6 5 6 2 4
6 6 6 0 2 1 4 0 2 2 6 4
0 0 0 0 0 0 6 4 5 4 2 3
6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2

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Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary 1039

Using MINITAB, a histogram of the values of x is:


x-bar
P
e
r
c
e
n
t
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Histogram of x-bar


Although it is not exactly the same as the graph in Exercise 4.156 e, is it very similar.

4.161 a-b. The answers to this will vary. The results of the first 10 generated samples of size 15 with the
computed means and medians are:

Sample Mean Median
1 198 155 188 170 200 178 178 168 158 197 176 156 168 193 176 177.27 176
2 164 158 161 199 170 161 179 167 184 161 193 154 178 171 179 171.93 170
3 191 186 156 196 194 157 188 180 171 152 177 191 170 193 160 177.47 180
4 169 183 198 163 154 176 199 192 186 198 179 178 188 159 170 179.47 179
5 192 181 159 163 173 161 177 190 164 165 167 179 158 164 157 170.00 165
6 172 159 164 163 176 194 183 157 163 174 191 190 185 172 152 173.00 172
7 190 162 159 176 173 187 191 171 193 167 180 180 175 159 189 176.80 176
8 168 178 160 172 166 171 160 173 176 184 172 172 171 155 191 171.27 172
9 196 165 183 166 179 176 173 196 162 185 194 195 191 171 158 179.33 179
10 190 182 162 190 184 200 175 167 159 195 190 150 188 183 189 180.27 184

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
1040 Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary


Using MINITAB, histograms of the means and medians are:

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
186 180 174 168 162
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
186 180 174 168 162
Mean Median
Histogram of Mean, Median


The histogram of the medians is more spread out than the histogram of the means. The values of the
mean tend to cluster around to a greater extent than do the values of the median.

4.162 a-b. The answers to this will vary. The results of the first 10 generated samples of size 25 with the
computed means and standard deviations are:

mean median
79 19 26 71 41 28 85 81 39 52 94 57 82 95 81 48 48 86 43 29 32 81 74 22 8 56.04 26.60
7 86 61 70 82 75 60 10 46 95 20 7 2 67 4 71 82 93 55 90 21 18 92 23 37 50.96 32.89
98 48 6 27 85 56 88 43 13 57 81 78 46 14 25 93 43 62 100 2 14 57 15 31 73 50.20 30.91
60 29 51 53 6 48 68 95 23 90 29 59 66 1 92 8 67 64 41 41 71 6 50 28 37 47.32 26.91
29 7 68 36 94 54 69 33 36 51 86 89 40 32 79 23 60 15 79 47 51 52 95 57 42 52.96 24.60
73 9 27 79 59 1 33 40 42 35 2 12 26 81 34 87 61 90 61 82 23 85 64 67 26 47.96 28.45
21 6 77 56 14 68 36 75 12 67 96 11 33 47 51 53 52 1 63 58 25 95 45 11 95 46.72 29.05
50 59 5 78 84 59 2 93 72 27 72 30 85 17 18 53 29 14 67 30 63 61 99 7 4 47.12 30.55
74 25 95 97 28 15 80 21 21 1 7 44 54 30 37 47 88 98 25 92 68 70 3 23 43 47.44 31.81
23 31 52 0 84 13 37 24 83 37 63 26 94 59 96 92 8 6 18 47 84 25 36 8 71 44.68 31.00

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary 1041

Using MINITAB, histograms of the means and standard deviations are:


F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
64 56 48 40 32 24
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
64 56 48 40 32 24
xbar std
Histogram of xbar, std


4.170 The answers to this will vary. There were 500 random samples generated for sample sizes n = 2, n = 5, n =
10, n = 30, and n = 50. For each of the samples, the sample mean was computed. Using MINITAB, the
histogram of x was generated for each of the various sample sizes. The histograms are:


F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
90 75 60 45 30 15
90 75 60 45 30 15
200
150
100
50
0
90 75 60 45 30 15
200
150
100
50
0
n=2 n=5 n=10
n=30 n=50
Histogram of n=2, n=5, n=10, n=30, n=50


As n increases, the spreads of the data decrease. The frequencies in the middle of the distributions increase
as the sample sizes increase. In all cases, the distributions are fairly mound-shaped and centered around
50.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
1042 Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary


4.200 The answers to this will vary. There were 100 random samples generated for sample sizes n = 2, n = 5, n =
10, n = 30, and n = 50. For each of the samples, the sample mean was computed. Using MINITAB, a
histogram of x was generated for each of the various sample sizes. The histograms are:

F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5
9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5
48
36
24
12
0
9.0 7.5 6.0 4.5 3.0 1.5
48
36
24
12
0
n=2 n=5 n=10
n=30 n=50
Histogram of n=2, n=5, n=10, n=30, n=50


As n increases, the spreads of the data decrease. The frequencies in the middle of the distributions increase
as the sample sizes increase. As the sample size increases, the distribution of x looks more like a normal
distribution.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary 1043

5.113 a. Answers will vary. Using MINITAB, a random sample of 100 was selected from the numbers 1
through 5000. The numbers selected are listed below with those ending in 0 highlighted.

3718 1987 1163 3466 70
4062 1329 2251 2511 17
2226 2905 3307 2146 4743
3261 1706 540 4068 3288
2624 718 87 4592 1231
3708 4152 1591 2055 2218
616 2781 301 505 4991
1888 2298 592 2023 2370
3957 3046 2293 4259 2297
4155 203 1074 1042 4573
1614 4180 180 3408 2270
4988 2 518 3030 3874
581 2225 4025 2138 813
2052 1302 464 1221 3763
3816 1647 724 2698 1629
2639 3153 626 2714 2909
3331 737 1727 2615 3815
2178 3509 2430 1057 1278
2752 3112 4910 3874 966
4191 317 4887 2149 689

b. From the sample, there were 9 numbers ending in 0, so there were 9 invoices in error.

09 .
100
9
= = =
n
x
p

For confidence coefficient .90, = .10 and /2 = .10/2 = .05. From Table IV, Appendix B, z
.05
=
1.645. The 90% confidence interval for the proportion of invoices in error is:

) 137 . , 043 (. 047 . 09 .
100
) 91 (. 09 .
645 . 1 09 .

05 .

n
q p
z p

c. Yes, the confidence interval that was constructed in part b does contain the true proportion of .10.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
1044 Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary


12.62 Answers will vary. Suppose that we want to diagnose the downtime of computers. A possible cause-and-
effect diagram might be:




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Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary 1045

12.63 Answers may vary. One possible cause-and-effect diagram to help explain why x is:




Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
1046 Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary


12.64 Answers may vary. One possible cause-and-effect diagram to help explain why customer waiting times at
drive-in windows of fast food restaurants is a variable is:



13.65 At press time, the 2009 quarterly GDP values were not available. Suppose the quarterly values were:

Year Quarter GDP
2009 I 13998
II 13973
III 14356
IV 14417

Using the above values, the 3 criteria are computed for each of the 3 different forecast models.

From Exercise 13.63 and 13.64, the forecasts for the 4 quarters of 2009 are:

Year Quarter Holt-Winters Simple Linear
Regression
Seasonal Model
2009 I 14,836.8 14,780.5 14,799.7
II 14,874.6 14,843.2 14,978.1
III 14,912.4 15,105.9 15,149.3
IV 14,950.2 15,268.7 15,212.2

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary 1047

For the Holt-Winters forecasts, the errors are:


1
| |
MAD
| 13998 14836.8 | | 13973 14874.6 | | 14356 14912.4 | | 14417 14950.2 | 2830
707.5
4 4
m
t t
i
Y F
m

- - - - - - -

( )
1
MAPE 100
13998 14836.8 13973 14874.6 14356 14912.4 14417 14950.2
13998 13973 14356 14417
100
3
.20019
= 100 5.005
4
m
t t
t
i
Y F
Y
m

(
-
(
(

(
(
(

( - - - -
- - -
(
(

(
(

(

(

( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
1
2 2 2 2
RMSE
13998 14836.8 13973 14874.6 14356 14912.4 14417 14950.2
4
2110351.2
726.35
4
m
t t
i
Y F
m

- - - - - - -

For the Simple Linear regression forecasts, the errors are:


1
| |
MAD
| 13998 14780.5 | | 13973 14843.2 | | 14356 15105.9 | | 14417 15268.7 |
4
3254.3
813.6
4
m
t t
i
Y F
m

- - - - - - -

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
1048 Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary



( )
1
MAPE 100
13998 14780.5 13973 14843.2 14356 15105.9 14417 15268.7
13998 13973 14356 14417
100
3
.22949
100 5.737
4
m
t t
t
i
Y F
Y
m

(
-
(
(

(
(
(

( - - - -
- - -
(
(

(
(

(

(

( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
1
2 2 2 2
RMSE
13998 14780.5 13973 14843.2 14356 15105.9 14417 15268.7
4
2657297.2
815.06
4
m
t t
i
Y F
m

- - - - - - -

For the Seasonal Model forecasts, the errors are:


1
| |
MAD
| 13998 14799.7 | | 13973 14978.1| | 14356 15149.3| | 14417 15212.2 | 3395.3
848.8
4 4
m
t t
i
Y F
m

- - - - - - -

( )
1
MAPE 100
13998 14799.7 13973 14978.1 14356 15149.3 14417 15212.2
13998 13973 14356 14417
100
3
.23962
100 5.991
4
m
t t
t
i
Y F
Y
m

(
-
(
(

(
(
(

( - - - -
- - -
(
(

(
(

(

(

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.
Guided Solutions to Exercises with Solutions that Vary 1049


( )
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
2
1
2 2 2 2
RMSE
13998 14799.7 13973 14978.1 14356 15149.3 14417 15212.2
4
2914616.8
853.61
4
m
t t
i
Y F
m

- - - - - - -

The Holt-Winters model performs the best for all three criteria. The MAD, MAPE, and RMSE values for
the Holt-Winter forecasts are the smallest.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall.