International meeting on operational pathways for equitable low carbon development in BRICSAM countries February 17-18, 2014 New Delhi Ashok Sreenivas Prayas (Energy Group), Pune www.prayaspune.org/peg Approach Co-benefits based approach most meaningful for India Pursue low-carbon options where carbon is a co-benefit to other developmental benefits Many options available
Indian context Very low energy access / usage and large infrastructure deficit Energy imports drain on resources Very poor socio-environmental management regime 1 Access deficit 2 Well over 1 USA (400 million) without access to electricity Hours of supply in rural area often as low as 2 hours Approx. 1 Africa (1 billion) living on less than 100 kWh /household/month Over 1.5 EU-28 (800 million) still use solid fuels, kerosene etc. for cooking Source: Census 2011, NSSO 66th round, Prayas estimates Infrastructure deficit 3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Houses without concrete/brick walls Houses without toilets Habitations without all-weather roads Villages without primary schools Villages without basic health services Half the households do not have pucca houses, toilets, basic health care One-fourth villages have no proper road access, one-fifth no primary school Source: Census 2011, NSSO, PM Sadak Yojana, Prayas estimates 4 Energy imports financial burden (2010) Indian imports as % of GDP considerably high contributes 60% of trade deficit Supply security concerns 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Brazil China Germany India Japan South Korea United States E n e r g y
i m p o r t s
a s
%
o f
G D P
E n e r g y
i m p o r t
d e p e n d e n c e
Net energy import dependence(%) Energy imports as % of GDP Source: EIA, World bank Socio-environmental distress High air and water pollution Primarily a governance failure Poor compensation / R&R Employment or alternative livelihoods provided to only ~40% of displaced Less than half the resettled houses had access to water None had access to primary health centres near by Weak legal regime and governance
5 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 RSPM (g/m3) TSS (mg/l) Pollution near power plants Ratnagiri Dadri Vindhyachal 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 RSPM (g/m3) TSS (mg/l) Pollution near coal mines Godavari coalfield Jharia coalfield Low-C Solutions for India Should contribute to improving access Cannot be expensive to the poor at least Should not increase import dependence Should lead to minimal socio-environmental distress Low-C energy policies for India should satisfy these (potentially conflicting) attributes! Energy sector policies Not so much about governance, institutional issues, environmental management etc. All equally important 6 Energy conservation / efficiency Potential to reduce some very high-end consumption Life-style / consumption pattern change at the top? Better building designs? Huge potential for efficiency improvement Very rough estimates for potential savings 30% in agriculture, 25% in residential / commercial 15% in industry If 60% appliance stock in 2020 is super-efficient, then annual savings of 60 BU, 20 GW 50 MT CO2 Inexpensive Prayas estimated cost of conserved electricity from appliances: Rs. 0.80 2.50 per / kWh 7 Energy conservation / efficiency Reduced consumption More energy to go around => can increase access Reduces imports of coal / gas => helps trade deficit Reduces mining => reduced socio-environmental stresses Energy Efficiency improvement should be first weapon of choice Government programs / actions: NMEEE umbrella Target 19 GW / 23 mtoe saving by 2014-15 Appliance standards and labelling SEEP for ceiling fans being rolled out PAT for designated industries in phase I Vehicle (car) fuel efficiency norms just announced Issues Standards could be tighter to accelerate efficiency improvement BEE needs strengthening / support Programs going slower than expected 8 Renewable energy Good candidate for consideration Abundant local resources both solar and wind No local pollution, lesser social impacts But Costlier than conventional power as of now Issues of intermittency and unpredictability Ambitious targets 22 GW of solar and 100 GW of wind by 2022 through national missions Currently 2 GW and 20 GW respectively 15% of electricity by 2020 from renewable sources (without large hydro) Currently ~5% 9 Renewable energy Way ahead Reverse auctions drove down solar prices by ~40% Net-metering for rooftop PV + telescopic tariffs High end consumers pay for high cost resource Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, AP, West Bengal, Delhi etc. adopting it Points to ponder Bringing down wind energy costs (auctions?) Start thinking about socio-environmental impacts of RE particularly land and maybe water Intermittency, grid integration issues Micro-grids and their integration with the grid Promoting jobs and domestic industry? 10 Transport Urban transport: the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework Avoid Retain / encourage existing advantages such as dense and mixed-use Reduce travel needs Shift Protect and encourage pedestrians and cyclists Provide (much) better public transport Improve Fuel efficiency of vehicles Improves the access / mobility of poor / disadvantaged Reduce imports (India imports 80% of its oil requirements) Improves urban air quality 11 Transport Increasing realization of such a shift at the national level states / cities still catching up Inter-city passenger and freight transport Encourage larger role for rail About 10 times more efficient than road/air Better corridors, faster trains, better inter-connectivity and logistics Largely powered by electricity No pollution at consumption end Shift to RE can gradually reduce pollution at source Long way to go in this regard Total potential annual savings from transport by 2020 ~US $4bn in imports ~50 MT CO2 12 Cooking fuels Biomass / solid fuels use for cooking Severe health effects One hour cooking smoking 1000 cigarettes! Gender impacts Fetching fuel wood / dung Carbon impacts Black carbon: One estimate of 172,000 tons in 2005 Potential deforestation / denudation due to population pressure Shifting to more efficient cook-stoves and/or modern fuels can lower impacts Different implications of improving efficiency / shifting to modern but fossil fuels Will involve trade-offs Need to weigh options carefully 13 Cooking fuels Some Government schemes to shift to efficient cook-stoves but highly ineffective so far Only ~50% of stoves being used in spite of Government paying >= 50% of cost NPIC 35 million units distributed Criticised for poor stove design, high program cost, low uptake rates New scheme announced recently 14 30% shift to Efficient stove LPG Woman hours saved ~9 billion ~28 billion Black carbon emissions 24,000 tons 78,000 tons CO2 emissions 2 MT (28 MT) Import dependence - (USD 8 bn) Forest / green cover Maybe +ve or ve Definite +ve Long term sustainability Possible Impossible!? Agriculture Contributes about 20% of Indias GHG emissions though mostly non-energy emissions Consumes about ~11% of the countrys energy 15 Fertilizer 39% Irrigation 28% Transport 15% Mechanization 8% Other 6% Draught animal + human 4% Domestic fertilizer production and irrigation consume about 14 mtoe each Fertilizers: ~10% of oil imports Diesel: ~3% of oil imports Options for consideration Moving to super-pumps More reliable, efficient suitable for utility DSM? Gradual shift away from petroleum-based fertilizers? Better crops / cropping patterns? THANK YOU 16 ashok@prayaspune.org