Figure 1 The Risk Impact/Probability Chart

The corners of the chart have these characteristics:

Low impact/low probability Risks in the bottom left corner are low level, and you can
often ignore them.
Low impact/high probability Risks in the top left corner are of moderate importance
if these things happen, you can cope with them and move on. However, you should try to
reduce the likelihood that they'll occur.
High impact/low probability Risks in the bottom right corner are of high importance
if they do occur, but they're very unlikely to happen. For these, however, you should do
what you can to reduce the impact they'll have if they do occur, and you should have
contingency plans in place just in case they do.
High impact/high probability Risks towards the top right corner are of critical
importance. These are your top priorities, and are risks that you must pay close attention
to.
To use the Risk Impact/Probability Chart, print this free worksheet, and then follow these steps:
1. List all of the likely risks that your project faces. Make the list as comprehensive as
possible.
2. Assess the probability of each risk occurring, and assign it a rating. For example, you
could use a scale of 1 to 10. Assign a score of 1 when a risk is extremely unlikely to
occur, and use a score of 10 when the risk is extremely likely to occur.
3. Estimate the impact on the project if the risk occurs. Again, do this for each and every
risk on your list. Using your 1-10 scale, assign it a 1 for little impact and a 10 for a huge,
catastrophic impact.
4. Map out the ratings on the Risk Impact/Probability Chart.
5. Develop a response to each risk, according to its position in the chart. Remember, risks in
the bottom left corner can often be ignored, while those in the top right corner need a
great deal of time and attention. Read Risk Analysis and Risk Management for detailed
strategies on developing a risk response plan.

Key Points
To successfully implement a project, you must identify and focus your attention on middle and
high-priority risks otherwise you risk spreading your efforts too thinly, and you'll waste
resources on unnecessary risk management.
With the Risk Impact/Probability Chart, you map out each risk and its position determines its
priority. High-probability/high-impact risks are the most critical, and you should put a great deal
of effort into managing these. The low-probability/high-impact risks and high-probability/low-
impact risks are next in priority, though you may want to adopt different strategies for each.
Low-probability/low-impact risks can often be ignored.


Tip 1:
It's natural to want to turn this into a two-by-two matrix. The problem here is where the lines
dividing the quadrants of the matrix lie. For example should you ignore a 49 percent
probability risk, which will cause a 49 percent of maximum loss? And why, in this example,
should you pay maximum attention to a risk that has a 51 percent probability of occurring, with a
loss of 51 percent of maximum loss?
Tip 2:
In some industries, you need to pay close attention to even very unlikely risks, where these risks
involve injury or loss of human life, for example. Make sure you pay due attention to these risks.

Required Activities
1. Clear Theme
2. Specific Time Period
3. Realistic Menu
4. Appropriate Topic
5. Thoughtful Seating
6. Distinction of Guests
7. Original Costumes
8. Suitable Mood/Tone
9. Shared Responsibility
10. Invitations
Conversation
1. Lively
2. Informative
3. Knowledgeable
4. Understandable
5. Appropriate
6. Some Humor
7. Realistic
8. Evenly Divided
9. Organized
10. Practiced

Team is unaware of food

Project Deliverables:
1. Menu (approved by Ben)
2. Seating Charts
3. Venue
4. DJ
5. Project Budget
6. Project Schedule
7. Project Risks
8. Project Communication Plan

11:00amShopfordinneritems.2:00-2:15Begintopreparevegetablesforroast.2:15-
2:30Preparevegetablesforroast.2:30-
2:45Putvegetablesinbagandfollowrecipedirectionsforcoatingvegetables.2:45-
3:00Seasonmeatandplaceinbagtosealandputinoven.3:00-
3:15Washromainelettuceanddrythoroughly.3:15-
3:30Cutlettuceintobitesizepieces.3:45-
4:00Cutlemonsforsaladandcleanmushrooms.4:00-
4:15Makestuffedmushroommix.4:15-
4:30Fillmushroomcapswithmixandsetaside.4:30-
4:45Checkroast,cleananydirtydishes.4:45-
5:00Settableandcreatecenterpiece.5:00-
5:15Checkroast,beginmakingnobakecookies.5:14-
5:30Finishmakingnobakecookiesanddropontoaluminumfoil.5:30-
5:45Cleanupanydirtydishes.5:45-6:00Gatheranygarnishingingredients.6:00-
6:15Putmushroomsinsmalloven.6:15-
6:30Takemushroomsoutofovenandplaceonservingplatter.Garnish.6:30-
6:45Finishingtouchesonappetizersandsalad.6:45Serveappetizersandsalad.7:00Se
rveroastandvegetables.7:30Cleanupandplacedessertout
8-15-cleaned up finished
Milestone:
Invitations sent
Menu finalized

Milestone list: Steve and Susan had asked that the invitations be printed at least
three months in advance to be sure that everyone had time to RSVP. Thats a
milestone on Sallys list.
Ingredients:1PackageFreshWholeMushrooms
CBaconBitsCShreddedCheddarCheeseProcedure:1.Preheatovento3
50degrees.2.Cleanmushrooms.3.Popstemoutofcapofmushroomandplacei
ntofoodprocessor.4.Mixstems,cheeseandbaconbits.5.Placeaspoonfulofthe
mixtureintoeachmushroomcapthathasbeenplacesonagreasedbakingsheet.
6.Bakefor10-15minutesoruntilcheese


Ingredients:3RomaineLettuceHeadsIbagFreshGourmet,ClassicCaesarP
remiumCroutonsbottleCardinisOriginalCaesarDressing3FreshLemo
nsProcedure:1.Cleanlettuceheadsandcutlettuceintobitesizepiecesandtowe
ldry.2.Placecutlettuceinlargebowl,addcroutons.3.Cutlemonsintostosqu
eezeontosalad4.Adddressingtosalad
ID ACTIVITY IMMEDIATE PREDECESSORS
A. prepare guest list ----
B. plan the menu A A
C. clean the house ------ B
D. grocery shopping B B
E. cook food D, D
F. set table C, C
G. receiving the guests ----- E,F
H. serve the food E,G G
I. clean the dishes H H