Yale's Six Americas

global warmings
six americas
in september 2012

Global Warmings Six Americas, September 2012

lnLervlew daLes: AugusL 31 SepLember 12, 2012
lnLervlews: 1,061 AdulLs (18+)
Margln of error: +/- 3 percenLage polnLs aL Lhe 93 confldence level for Lhe full sample.
nC1L: All resulLs show percenLages among all respondenLs, unless oLherwlse labeled. 1oLals may occaslonally
sum Lo more occaslonally round Lo more Lhan 100 percenL due Lo roundlng.

1hls sLudy was conducLed by Lhe ole ltoject oo cllmote cbooqe commoolcotloo and Lhe Ceotqe Mosoo
uolvetslty ceotet fot cllmote cbooqe commoolcotloo, and was funded by Lhe Surdna loundaLlon, Lhe 11Lh
Pour ro[ecL, Lhe CranLham loundaLlon, and Lhe v. k. 8asmussen loundaLlon.

ltloclpol lovestlqotots.

AnLhony LelserowlLz, hu Ldward Malbach, MP, hu
?ale ro[ecL on CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon CenLer for CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon
School of loresLry and LnvlronmenLal SLudles ueparLmenL of CommunlcaLlon
?ale unlverslLy Ceorge Mason unlverslLy
(203) 432-4863 (703) 993-1387
anLhony.lelserowlLz[yale.edu emalbach[gmu.edu

Connle 8oser-8enouf, hu Ceoff lelnberg
CenLer for CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon ?ale ro[ecL on CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon
ueparLmenL of CommunlcaLlon School of loresLry and LnvlronmenLal SLudles
Ceorge Mason unlverslLy ?ale unlverslLy
croserre[gmu.edu (203) 432-7438
geoffrey.felnberg[yale.edu
eLer Powe, hu
?ale ro[ecL on CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon
School of loresLry & LnvlronmenLal SLudles
?ale unlverslLy
peLer.howe[yale.edu

clte os. LelserowlLz, A., Malbach, L., 8oser-8enouf, C., lelnberg, C. & Powe, . (2013) Global Warmings Six
Ametlcos, 5eptembet 2012. ?ale unlverslLy and Ceorge Mason unlverslLy. new Paven, C1: ?ale ro[ecL on
CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon. hLLp://envlronmenL.yale.edu/cllmaLe/publlcaLlons/Slx-Amerlcas-SepLember-
2012

?ale/Ceorge Mason Slx Amerlcas, SepL. 2012 1
1A8LL CI CCN1LN1S

age
2 Lxecut|ve Summary
4 lnLroducLlon
3 1he Slx Amerlcas Audlence SegmenLs
6 Changes ln Lhe Slze of SegmenLs

7 erce|ved 8enef|ts and Costs of keduc|ng Ioss|| Iue| Use and G|oba| Warm|ng
8 1he AlotmeJ
9 1he coocetoeJ
10 1he cootloos
11 1he ulseoqoqeJ
12 1he uoobtfol
13 1he ulsmlsslve

14 Support for Nat|ona| o||c|es
14 ueslred Level of naLlonal 8esponse Lo 8educe Clobal Warmlng
13 CondlLlons for 8educlng Creenhouse Cas Lmlsslons
16 referred luLure Lnergy Sources
17 Subsldles for lossll luel and 8enewable Lnergy lndusLrles
18 SupporL for a Carbon 1ax
22 lundlng 8enewable Lnergy 8esearch and uevelopmenL
23 1ax 8ebaLes for urchases of LfflclenL vehlcles & Solar anels
23 8egulaLlng CC
2
as a olluLanL
24 A 20 ercenL naLlonal 8enewable Lnergy SLandard
24 nuclear Lnergy
23 Cffshore urllllng

26 Who Influences Elected Officials Decisions about Global Warming?
27 1he AlotmeJ
28 1he coocetoeJ
29 1he Caotloos
30 1he ulseoqoqeJ
31 1he uoobtfol
32 1he ulsmlsslve

33 Methods

34 Append|x: "#$ %&'(')*#(+,*+), -. *&# /+0 12#(+)',


Lxecut|ve Summary

ln 2008, uslng naLlonally represenLaLlve survey daLa on global warmlng bellefs, behavlors and pollcy
preferences ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes, we ldenLlfled slx dlsLlncL groups of Amerlcans Clobal Warmings Six
Amerlcas. Slnce Lhen, we have Lracked Lhe slze of Lhese slx audlences and Lhe ongolng evoluLlon of Lhelr
bellefs, behavlors and pollcy preferences Lhrough a serles of naLlonal surveys. We observed a sharp decllne
ln publlc engagemenL from Lhe fall of 2008 Lo !anuary 2010, and a gradual rebound sLarLlng ln !une 2010. ln
our mosL recenL survey ln SepLember 2012, we found LhaL Lhe rebound ln publlc engagemenL has conLlnued:
Lhe AlotmeJ, coocetoeJ and cootloos audlence segmenLs once agaln comprlse 70 percenL of Lhe Amerlcan
publlc, as Lhey dld ln Lhe fall of 2008. Moreover, Lhere was boLh slgnlflcanL growLh ln Lhe slze of Lhe AlotmeJ
and decllne ln Lhe slze of Lhe ulsmlsslve beLween Lhe sprlng and fall of 2012.

3#()#+4#5 6#7#.+*, '75 %-,*, -. 8#59)+7: ;-,,+< ;9#< =,# '75 ><-?'< @'(2+7:
lor flve of Lhe Slx Amerlcas, lmproved publlc healLh now ranks among Lhe Lop Lhree percelved beneflLs
of Lhe naLlon Laklng acLlon Lo reduce fossll fuel use and global warmlng.
A range of oLher lmporLanL ouLcomes reduclng our dependence on forelgn oll, creaLlng green [obs
and lmprovlng Lhe economy are also ranked among Lhe Lop flve beneflLs by all Slx Amerlcas.
Cne of Lhe leasL recognlzed beneflLs ls lmproved naLlonal securlLy, whlch ls ranked as one of Lhe Lwo
leasL llkely beneflLs by flve of Lhe segmenLs. revenLlng sLarvaLlon and poverLy worldwlde were also
largely unrecognlzed beneflLs, ranklng wlLhln Lhe Lwo leasL llkely beneflLs for flve of Lhe segmenLs.
1he drawbacks mosL llkely Lo be clLed were lncreased governmenL regulaLlon and hlgher energy prlces,
Lhese were Lhe Lop Lwo drawbacks for every segmenL.

/9AA-(* .-( B'*+-7'< 3-<+)+#,
Ma[orlLles of all Slx Amerlcas say Lhe u.S. should lncrease lLs use of renewable energy.
ln flve of Lhe slx segmenLs, larger proporLlons prefer Lo reduce, raLher Lhan lncrease fossll fuel use, only
Lhe ulsmlsslve prefer to increase the nations use of fossil fuels.
ln every segmenL excepL Lhe ulsmlsslve, half or more favor Lhe ellmlnaLlon of subsldles Lo Lhe fossll fuel
lndusLry, and oppose Lhe ellmlnaLlon of subsldles Lo renewable energy companles.
Ma[orlLles of Lhe AlotmeJ, coocetoeJ and cootloos comprlslng 70 percenL of Lhe u.S. populaLlon
say Lhe u.S. should reduce lLs greenhouse gas emlsslons, regardless of whaL oLher naLlons do.
Among Lhe Slx Amerlcas, supporL for a candldaLe who supporLs a carbon Lax varles conslderably,
dependlng on Lhe deLalls of Lhe proposal. 1he mosL popular verslons supporLed by half or more of
Lhe AlotmeJ, coocetoeJ and cootloos speclfy LhaL Lhe Lax wlll elLher creaLe more [obs ln Lhe
renewable energy and energy efflclency lndusLrles, decrease polluLlon by encouraglng companles Lo
flnd less polluLlng alLernaLlves, or be used Lo reduce Lhe federal lncome Lax. 1he leasL popular verslon
proposes Lo use Lhe revenue Lo provlde a Lax refund of $180, on average, Lo each Amerlcan household.
lundlng research on renewable energy, and provldlng Lax rebaLes for purchases of energy-efflclenL
vehlcles and solar panels have remalned popular pollcles among flve of Lhe Slx Amerlcas slnce Lracklng
began ln 2008.
CpposlLlon Lo bulldlng more nuclear power planLs has lncreased among all segmenLs, four of Lhe Slx
Amerlcas currenLly oppose bulldlng more planLs.
SupporL for offshore drllllng has decreased ln all slx segmenLs, buL four of Lhe slx groups sLlll supporL
offshore drllllng on average.

6#<+#., '?-9* Who Influences Elected Officials Decisions about Global Warming

ln flve of Lhe Slx Amerlcas, ma[orlLles belleve LhaL lf Lhey work wlLh oLhers who share Lhelr vlews, Lhey
can lnfluence Lhelr elecLed represenLaLlves' declslons.
All Slx Amerlcas, however, belleve LhaL people who share Lhelr own vlews on global warmlng have less
lnfluence Lhan campalgn conLrlbuLors, fossll fuel companles, Lhe medla, eLc. eople who share Lhelr
vlews are, ln facL, percelved as havlng Lhe leost pollLlcal lnfluence by every segmenL.
llve of Lhe slx segmenLs belleve LhaL large campalgn conLrlbuLors have Lhe sLrongesL lnfluence on
elecLed offlclals.
lour segmenLs Lhe AlotmeJ, coocetoeJ, cootloos and ulseoqoqeJ, say LhaL Lhe fossll fuel lndusLry
has more lnfluence Lhan Lhe renewable energy lndusLry, whlle Lhe uoobtfol and ulsmlsslve belleve LhaL
renewable energy companles have more lnfluence Lhan fossll fuel companles.
1he ulsmlsslve Lend Lo belleve Lhe llberal news medla has Lhe sLrongesL lnfluence on elecLed offlclals,
30 percenL say Lhe llberal medla affecL leglslaLors "a loL."

Introduct|on

1hls reporL ls Lhe slxLh ln a serles on Global Warmings Six Americas, an audlence segmenLaLlon analysls used
Lo examlne Amerlcans' bellefs, aLLlLudes, pollcy preferences and cllmaLe-relevanL behavlors.

vlews on Lhe lssue of global warmlng vary broadly ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes, and audlence segmenLaLlon capLures
Lhe range of oplnlon by ldenLlfylng coheslve groups wlLhln Lhe publlc LhaL share slmllar bellefs, aLLlLudes and
behavlors. 1he segmenLaLlon framework descrlbed ln Lhls reporL dlvldes Amerlcans lnLo slx dlsLlncL publlcs
LhaL range along a specLrum of concern and lssue engagemenL.

1he flrsL reporL ldenLlfylng Lhese groups Clobol wotmloq's 5lx Ametlcos, 2009 proflled Lhe segmenLs ln
deLall. Lach subsequenL reporL has Lracked changes ln Lhe slzes of Lhe segmenLs, and descrlbed addlLlonal
characLerlsLlcs and bellefs of Lhe slx groups, all prlor reporLs are publlcly avallable aL our webslLes.
1
1he
meLhods used Lo gaLher and analyze Lhese daLa are descrlbed brlefly aL Lhe end of Lhe reporL, buL a full
descrlpLlon of Lhe analysls meLhods may be found ln Malbach et ol., 2011.
2

1hls reporL ls dlvlded lnLo Lhree secLlons: 1he flrsL examlnes Lhe 5lx Ametlcos' expecLaLlons for boLh poslLlve
and negaLlve ouLcomes lf Lhe naLlon Lakes acLlon Lo reduce global warmlng expecLaLlons LhaL are sLrongly
relaLed Lo Lhe groups' supporL for naLlonal acLlon on Lhe lssue.

1he second secLlon addresses Lhe quesLlon of how Lhe u.S. should respond Lo cllmaLe change and our energy
needs, assesslng supporL for varlous naLlonal pollcles and poLenLlal courses of acLlon.

1he Lhlrd secLlon focuses on how each of Lhe Slx Amerlcas percelve Lhe relaLlve lnfluence of lndlvlduals,
organlzaLlons and companles on Lhe elecLed represenLaLlves who are shaplng u.S. energy and cllmaLe pollcles.
ClLlzen acLlvlsm ln supporL of cllmaLe and energy pollcles ls unllkely lf lndlvlduals belleve Lhelr represenLaLlves
wlll lgnore Lhelr vlews, hence, comparlsons can shed llghL on Lhe slx groups' sense of collecLlve efflcacy, an
essenLlal componenL of clvlc engagemenL.

1
8eporLs may be accessed aL: hLLp://envlronmenL.yale.edu/cllmaLe/publlcaLlons/ ot hLLp://cllmaLechange.gmu.edu.
2
Malbach, Ldward, AnLhony LelserowlLz, Connle 8oser-8enouf & C.k. MerLz. (2011). ldenLlfylng Llke-Mlnded Audlences for CllmaLe
Change ubllc LngagemenL Campalgns: An Audlence SegmenLaLlon Analysls and 1ool uevelopmenL. llo5 ON.
hLLp://dx.plos.org/10.1371/[ournal.pone.0017371

1he S|x Amer|cas Aud|ence Segments

1he Slx Amerlcas do noL vary much by age, gender, race or lncome Lhere are members of every
demographlc group ln each of Lhe groups. 1hey range lnsLead along a specLrum of bellef, concern and
lssue engagemenL, from Lhe AlotmeJ Lo Lhe ulsmlsslve. Croups on Lhe lefL of Lhls specLrum are more
concerned and deslre more acLlon Lo reduce global warmlng, whlle groups on Lhe rlghL are relaLlvely
unconcerned and oppose acLlon. 1he mlddle groups Lend Lo have low lssue lnvolvemenL, do noL Lhlnk
abouL global warmlng ofLen and do noL have sLrong lf any oplnlons on Lhe course Lhe u.S. should
pursue.
As of SepLember 2012, Lhe largesL audlence segmenL ls Lhe coocetoeJ (29), who are moderaLely
cerLaln LhaL global warmlng ls occurrlng, harmful and human-caused, Lhey Lend Lo vlew global warmlng as
a LhreaL Lo oLher naLlons and fuLure generaLlons, buL noL as a personal LhreaL or a LhreaL Lo Lhelr
communlLy. 1hey supporL socleLal acLlon on cllmaLe change, buL are unllkely Lo have engaged ln pollLlcal
acLlvlsm.
1he cootloos (23) Lhe second-largesL group are llkely Lo belleve LhaL cllmaLe change ls real, buL
are noL cerLaln, and many are uncerLaln abouL Lhe cause. 1hey are less worrled Lhan Lhe coocetoeJ, and
vlew global warmlng as a dlsLanL LhreaL. 1hey have glven llLLle LhoughL Lo Lhe lssue and are unllkely Lo
have sLrongly held oplnlons abouL whaL, lf anyLhlng, should be done.
1he Lhlrd largesL group Lhe AlotmeJ (16) are very cerLaln global warmlng ls occurrlng,
undersLand LhaL lL ls human-caused and harmful, and sLrongly supporL socleLal acLlon Lo reduce Lhe LhreaL.
1hey dlscuss Lhe lssue more ofLen, seek more lnformaLlon abouL lL, and are more llkely Lo acL as global
warmlng oplnlon leaders Lhan Lhe oLher segmenLs. 1hey are Lhe mosL llkely of Lhe slx groups Lo have
engaged ln pollLlcal acLlvlsm on Lhe lssue, alLhough only abouL a quarLer have done so.
1hese Lhree groups Lhe AlotmeJ, coocetoeJ and cootloos currenLly comprlse 70 percenL of Lhe
Amerlcan publlc. AlLhough Lhey range ln cerLalnLy abouL Lhe reallLy and dangers of cllmaLe change, Lhey
are slmllarly lncllned Lo belleve lL ls a real LhreaL LhaL should be addressed. 1hus, some level of supporL for
acLlon ls Lhe predomlnanL vlew among Lhe ma[orlLy of Amerlcans.
1he uoobtfol (13) Lhe fourLh largesL group are uncerLaln wheLher global warmlng ls occurrlng or
noL, buL belleve LhaL lf lL ls happenlng, lL ls aLLrlbuLable Lo naLural causes, noL human acLlvlLles. 1hey Lend
Lo be pollLlcally conservaLlve and Lo hold LradlLlonal rellglous vlews.
1he ulseoqoqeJ (9) have glven Lhe lssue of global warmlng llLLle Lo no LhoughL. 1hey have no
sLrongly held bellefs abouL global warmlng, know llLLle abouL lL, and do noL vlew lL as havlng any personal
relevance. 1hey Lend Lo have Lhe lowesL educaLlon and lncome levels of Lhe slx groups.
1he smallesL audlence segmenL ls Lhe ulsmlsslve (8), who are very cerLaln LhaL global warmlng ls
oot occurrlng. Many regard Lhe lssue as a hoax and are sLrongly opposed Lo acLlon Lo reduce Lhe LhreaL.
AbouL one ln nlne have conLacLed an elecLed represenLaLlve Lo argue agalnsL acLlon on global warmlng.

Changes |n the S|ze of Segments

When Lhe audlence segmenLs were flrsL ldenLlfled ln Lhe fall of 2008, [usL over half Lhe u.S.
populaLlon fell lnLo Lhe Lwo mosL concerned segmenLs Lhe AlotmeJ and coocetoeJ. 8y !anuary 2010, Lhe
proporLlon ln Lhese Lwo segmenLs had decreased by 11 percenLage polnLs, and Lhe proporLlon ln Lhe leasL
concerned segmenL, Lhe ulsmlsslve, had more Lhan doubled from 7 Lo 16 percenL of Lhe populaLlon.
1hese changes were conslsLenL wlLh mulLlple naLlonal polls showlng slmllar shlfLs ln publlc oplnlon aL
LhaL Llme, and are llkely Lhe resulL of several facLors, lncludlng Lhe recesslon, decreases ln medla coverage,
cllmaLegaLe, and cues from political elites.
8y !une of 2010, however, Lhe AlotmeJ had rebounded by 3 percenLage polnLs, whlle Lhe ulsmlsslve
shrank by 4 percenL. ln 2011 Lhere was llLLle change ln Lhe segmenL slzes, beyond a furLher decrease ln Lhe
ulsmlsslve and a correspondlng growLh ln Lhe uoobtfol.
ln 2012 Lhere was a gradual lncrease ln Lhe slzes of Lhe more concerned segmenLs: ln Aprll we found
an lncrease of 3 percenLage polnLs ln Lhe cootloos, and a decllne ln Lhe ulseoqoqeJ. 8y SepLember, Lhe
AlotmeJ had lncreased Lo 16 percenL and Lhe coocetoeJ Lo 29 percenL, whlle Lhe ulsmlsslve (8), uoobtfol
(13) and cootloos (23) had all conLracLed.
3

3
SupersLorm Sandy ampllfled naLlonal dlscusslons of cllmaLe change, buL lL occurred oftet Lhese daLa were gaLhered, Lhus, Lhe
upward Lrend ln concern shown here does noL reflecL any lmpacL Lhe sLorm may have had on publlc oplnlon.

18
10
13 12 13 13
16
33
29
28
28
28 27
29
19
27 24
24
24
29
23
12
6
10
10
10
6
9
11
13
12 14
16 13
13
7
16 12
12
9 10
8
0
30
100
lall 2008 !an 2010 !un 2010 May 2011 nov 2011 Apr 2012 Sep 2012
e
r
c
e
n
t

G|oba| Warm|ng's S|x Amer|cas - 2008 through 2012
ulsmlsslve
uoubLful
ulsengaged
CauLlous
Concerned
Alarmed

erce|ved 8enef|ts and Costs of keduc|ng Ioss|| Iue| Use
and G|oba| Warm|ng

SLudles suggesL LhaL supporL for acLlon on cllmaLe change arlses from a seL of key bellefs, summarlzed
ln a prlor Slx Amerlcas reporL (see hLLp://envlronmenL.yale.edu/cllmaLe/flles/Slx-Amerlcas-March-2012.pdf).
AnoLher cenLral facLor ls bellefs abouL Lhe ouLcomes resulLlng from acLlon, sLudles show LhaL people
Lend Lo dlsmlss evldence lf Lhey belleve LhaL acLlng on Lhe evldence wlll lead Lo ouLcomes Lhey fear or dlsllke.
4

lndlvlduals who belleve LhaL Lhe economy wlll be harmed, governmenL regulaLlon wlll lncrease, and lndlvldual
freedoms curLalled are more llkely Lo dlsmlss Lhe evldence for cllmaLe change, whlle Lhose who belleve LhaL
lnacLlon wlll resulL ln harm Lo people and oLher specles are more supporLlve of acLlon.
1o examlne Lhese percepLlons, we asked abouL Lhe beneflLs and drawbacks of acLlon uslng Lwo
dlfferenL frames: Laklng sLeps Lo reduce qlobol wotmloq and Laklng sLeps Lo reduce tbe ootloo's ose of fossll
foels.
Speclflcally, half Lhe respondenLs were asked: "lease lndlcaLe wheLher you agree or dlsagree wlLh Lhe
followlng sLaLemenLs. lf our naLlon Lakes sLeps Lo reduce our use of fossll fuels (coal, oll and naLural gas), lL
will" 1he oLher half were asked: "lease lndlcaLe wheLher you agree or dlsagree wlLh Lhe followlng
sLaLemenLs. lf our nation takes steps to reduce global warming, it will..
Survey parLlclpanLs Lhen saw 16 poLenLlal ouLcomes, llsLed ln random order Len beneflLs and slx cosLs
or drawbacks (alLhough ls worLhy of noLe LhaL aL leasL one of Lhe ouLcomes lead to more governmenL
regulation may be consldered a cosL by some respondenLs and a beneflL by oLhers). 1hey raLed each
poLenLlal ouLcome on a flve-polnL scale from "sttooqly oqtee" Lo "sttooqly Jlsoqtee," and could also respond,
"Joo't koow," or "ptefet oot to ooswet."
We found LhaL Lhe expecLed ouLcomes assoclaLed wlLh Laklng sLeps Lo reduce global warmlng are very
slmllar Lo Lhose assoclaLed wlLh Laklng sLeps Lo reduce fossll fuel use,
3
ln llghL of Lhls slmllarlLy, we comblned
boLh seLs of daLa ln Lhe followlng analyses. A few dlfferences do exlsL ln expecLed beneflLs and cosLs,
however, among lndlvldual segmenLs. 1hese have been noLed on each page.

4
kunda, Z. (1990). 1he case for moLlvaLed reasonlng. lsycboloqlcol 8olletlo, 108(3), 480-498.
ulLLo, . & Lopez, u. (1992) MoLlvaLed skepLlclsm: use of dlfferenLlal declslon crlLerla for preferred and nonpreferred concluslons.
Iootool of letsooollty & 5oclol lsycboloqy, 6J(4), 368-384.
3
LelserowlLz, A., Malbach, L., 8oser-8enouf, C., lelnberg, C., & Powe, . (2012) lobllc soppott fot cllmote ooJ eoetqy pollcles lo
5eptembet, 2012. ?ale unlverslLy and Ceorge Mason unlverslLy. new Paven, C1: ?ale ro[ecL on CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon
!""#$%%&'()*+',&'"-./0&-&12%30),/"&%#240)3/")+'5%6+0)3.782##+*"78&#"&,4&*79:;9
1he 1<'(2#5 expect many benef|ts and few costs

Large ma[orlLles of Lhe AlotmeJ expecL LhaL acLlon wlll provlde lmmedlaLe beneflLs Lo people ln Lhe
u.S., lncludlng lmproved human healLh, a beLLer llfe for our chlldren and grandchlldren, Lhe prevenLlon
of specles exLlncLlons, reduced dependence on forelgn oll, and Lhe creaLlon of green [obs.
84 percenL of Lhe Alarmed say LhaL acLlon would prevenL Lhe desLrucLlon of mosL llfe on Lhe planeL.
A sLewardshlp eLhlc ls clLed by Lwo-Lhlrds, who say acLlon wlll proLecL Cod's creaLlon.
A small ma[orlLy says LhaL acLlon would lmprove u.S. naLlonal securlLy.
1he Lwo drawbacks mosL commonly clLed by Lhe AlotmeJ more governmenL regulaLlon and hlgher
energy prlces may have been vlewed as poslLlve ouLcomes, raLher Lhan drawbacks, by some wlLhln
Lhls group.
1aklng acLlon Lo reduce global warmlng ls seen as more llkely Lo save planL and anlmal specles from
exLlncLlons (p<.001) and provlde a beLLer llfe for our chlldren and grandchlldren (p<.05) Lhan was
Laklng acLlon Lo reduclng fossll fuel use.

CD. -9( 7'*+-7 *'E#, ')*+-7 *- (#59)# :<-?'< F'(2+7:G.-,,+< .9#< 9,#H +* F+<<IIIC

1
1
3
4
10
17
29
36
48
44
33
61
61
66
78
62
3
6
6
8
23
31
23
30
19
36
29
28
28
24
14
31
0 50 100
Parm poor people more Lhan lL helps Lhem
CosL [obs and harm our economy
undermlne Amerlcan soverelgnLy
lnLerfere wlLh Lhe free markeL
Cause energy prlces Lo rlse
Lead Lo more governmenL regulaLlon
lmprove our naLlonal securlLy
Save people around Lhe world from poverLy and sLarvaLlon
roLecL Cod's creaLlon
roLecL world's poor from harm caused by Lhe wealLhy
revenL Lhe desLrucLlon of mosL llfe on Lhe planeL
CreaLe green [obs and a sLronger economy
Pelp free us from dependence on forelgn oll
Save many planL and anlmal specles from exLlncLlon
rovlde a beLLer llfe for our chlldren and grandchlldren
lmprove people's healLh
Percent
8eneflLs: SLrongly agree ModeraLely agree

urawbacks: SLrongly agree ModeraLely agree
n=189
1he Concerned expect more benef|ts than costs,
a|though the|r expectat|ons are more moderate than the A|armed

1he proporLlon of Lhe coocetoeJ who expecL each beneflL ls lower Lhan Lhe AlotmeJ, and Lhelr
bellefs are less cerLaln, as lndlcaLed by more "moJetotely oqtee" and fewer "sttooqly oqtee"
responses.
noneLheless, approxlmaLely 8 ouL of 10 members of Lhe coocetoeJ anLlclpaLe LhaL Laklng acLlon
wlll provlde a beLLer llfe for our chlldren and grandchlldren, save many planLs and anlmal specles
from extinction, and improve peoples health, large ma[orlLles also belleve lL wlll help free us from
dependence on forelgn oll and creaLe [obs.
Close Lo Lwo-Lhlrds (63) say acLlon wlll prevenL Lhe desLrucLlon of mosL llfe on Lhe planeL and 37
percenL endorse a sLewardshlp eLhlc Lhe proLecLlon of Cod's creaLlon.
A sllghL ma[orlLy belleve governmenL regulaLlon wlll lncrease and 44 percenL expecL energy prlces
Lo rlse, expecLaLlons whlch may be concerns for Lhls group.
1he coocetoeJ are much more llkely Lo belleve LhaL reducLlons ln global warmlng wlll save many
people from poverLy and sLarvaLlon (p<.001) Lhan reduclng fossll fuel use wlll, as well as provlde a
beLLer llfe for our chlldren and grandchlldren, save specles from exLlncLlon, creaLe green [obs and
lncrease governmenL regulaLlon (all p<.05).

CD. -9( 7'*+-7 *'E#, ')*+-7 *- (#59)# :<-?'< F'(2+7:G.-,,+< .9#< 9,#H +* F+<<IIIC

2
3
2
4
7
10
8
8
14
21
17
21
28
23
27
33
11
11
14
13
37
42
20
33
38
36
46
30
48
32
32
43
0 30 100
ercent

n=293
1he %'9*+-9, expect more benef|ts than drawbacks from tak|ng act|on,
but the|r be||efs are weak|y he|d.

AbouL half or sllghLly more of Lhe cootloos expecL boLh a range of beneflLs and a slngle drawback
(more governmenL regulaLlon) Lo accrue from Laklng acLlon.
Powever, fewer Lhan one-flfLh of Lhe cootloos sttooqly agree LhaL any slngle beneflL or drawback
was llkely, Lhe beneflLs Lhey are mosL llkely Lo sLrongly anLlclpaLe are proLecLlng Cod's creaLlon
(16) and provldlng a beLLer llfe for our chlldren and grandchlldren (14).
1he CauLlous are more llkely belleve LhaL reduclng our fossll fuel use wlll lmprove our naLlonal
securlLy and reduce our dependence on forelgn oll Lhan reduclng global warmlng wlll (boLh p < .05).

CD. -9( 7'*+-7 *'E#, ')*+-7 *- (#59)# :<-?'< F'(2+7:G.-,,+< .9#< 9,#H +* F+<<IIIC

2
3
3
3
8
11
4
3
7
4
16
8
11
9
10
14
11
12
16
19
33
43
14
23
24
36
30
39
41
44
43
43
0 30 100
Save people around Lhe world from poverLy and
sLarvaLlon
roLecL world's poor from harm caused by Lhe
wealLhy
rovlde a beLLer llfe for our chlldren and
grandchlldren
ercent

n=237
1he J+,#7:':#5 are re|at|ve|y un||ke|y to recogn|ze any benef|ts or drawbacks to act|on.

Ma[orlLles respond "nelLher agree nor dlsagree" for all of Lhe beneflLs and drawbacks, beLween 33 and
80 percenL of Lhe ulseoqoqeJ say they dont know about Lhe poLenLlal ouLcomes (daLa noL shown).
1hey are mosL llkely Lo belleve LhaL acLlon wlll boLh lncrease governmenL regulaLlon and decrease our
dependence on forelgn oll.
1he beneflL Lhey are mosL llkely Lo sttooqly anLlclpaLe ls Lhe proLecLlon of Gods creaLlon, alLhough Lhe
proporLlon ls sLlll small aL 13 percenL.

CD. -9( 7'*+-7 *'E#, ')*+-7 *- (#59)# :<-?'< F'(2+7:G.-,,+< .9#< 9,#H +* F+<<IIIC

6
6
9
12
9
11
6
3
8
8
12
10
13
12
9
14
3
4
4
3
20
26
3
7
7
8
9
12
8
16
20
19
0 30 100
sLarvaLlon
wealLhy
rovlde a beLLer llfe for our chlldren and
grandchlldren
ercent
n=73


1he J-9?*.9< th|nk there are more drawbacks than benef|ts to act|on,
but many be||eve that act|on wou|d reduce our dependence on fore|gn o||.

lncreased governmenL regulaLlon and hlgher energy prlces are vlewed as llkely ouLcomes by a
ma[orlLy of Lhe uoobtfol, none of Lhe beneflLs are expecLed by a ma[orlLy.
very few 3 percenL or fewer sttooqly agree LhaL any beneflL would accrue, oLher Lhan reduclng
our dependence on forelgn oll.
Cnly 12 percenL say LhaL acLlon would lncrease u.S. naLlonal securlLy, whlle Lwlce as many belleve lL
would undermlne our soverelgnLy (23).
1he uoobtfol are dlvlded on Lhe economlc lmpacLs of acLlon: 42 percenL belleve acLlon wlll cosL
[obs, whlle 27 percenL belleve lL wlll creaLe Lhem.

CD. -9( 7'*+-7 *'E#, ')*+-7 *- (#59)# :<-?'< F'(2+7:G.-,,+< .9#< 9,#H +* F+<<IIIC

10
17
18
14
32
42
1
0
2
2
0
2
3
2
2
13
13
8
19
28
27
23
7
9
8
10
20
18
13
23
23
32
0 30 100
ercent
n=131

1he J+,2+,,+4# see ||tt|e benef|t to act|on and many drawbacks.

Ma[orlLles sLrongly belleve LhaL acLlon wlll lead Lo lncreased governmenL regulaLlon, hlgher energy
prlces and harm Lhe economy.
A sllghL ma[orlLy (32) belleve LhaL acLlon would undermlne Amerlcan soverelgnLy.
lewer Lhan 20 percenL of Lhe ulsmlsslve expecL any beneflL of acLlon, and only 10 percenL belleve
LhaL green [obs would be creaLed and would sLrengLhen Lhe economy.
Cnly flfLeen percenL belleve acLlon would reduce our dependence on forelgn oll, whlle only 9
percenL belleve our naLlonal securlLy would be lmproved.

CD. -9( 7'*+-7 *'E#, ')*+-7 *- (#59)# :<-?'< F'(2+7:G.-,,+< .9#< 9,#H +* F+<<IIIC

33
33
47
32
39
63
3
3
3
3
3
7
6
6
3
6
13
17
11
12
7
9
1
1
2
4
4
2
4
4
7
9
0 30 100
sLarvaLlon
wealLhy
ercent
n=117

Support for Nat|ona| o||c|es

Iour of the S|x Amer|cas support a |arge-to-med|um-sca|e effort to reduce g|oba| warm|ng.

8espondenLs were asked Lo assess Lhe level of naLlonal efforL Lhey favor Lo reduce global warmlng,
whlle Laklng lnLo accounL Lhe accompanylng cosLs.
Ma[orlLles of four segmenLs Lhe AlotmeJ Lo Lhe ulseoqoqeJ favor a large Lo medlum-scale efforL by
Lhe u.S. Lo reduce global warmlng, even lf lL has large Lo moderaLe cosLs. SevenLy percenL of Lhe
AlotmeJ favor a large-scale efforL.
Palf of Lhe uoobtfol favor a small-scale efforL, whlle 28 percenL favor no response and 20 percenL favor
a medlum or large response. LlghLy-flve percenL of Lhe ulsmlsslve say we should make no efforL.

Slnce 2008, Lhe proporLlon LhaL favor a large-scale efforL has fallen by 7 Lo 11 percenLage polnLs ln Lhe
AlotmeJ, coocetoeJ, cootloos and ulseoqoqeJ segmenLs.

70
31
9
13
1
28
64
38
48
19
2
3
30
27
31
13
4
11
28
83
0
30
100
Alarmed Concerned CauLlous ulsengaged uoubLful ulsmlsslve
CK-F ?+: -. '7 #..-(* ,&-9<5 *&# =I/I 2'E# *- (#59)# :<-?'< F'(2+7:LC
no efforL
A small-scale efforL, even lf lL has small
economlc cosLs
A medlum-scale efforL, even lf lL has
moderaLe economlc cosLs
A large-scale efforL, even lf lL has large
economlc cosLs
n=1,038
79
70
40
31
19
9
22
13
3
1
0
0
0
30
100
e
r
c
e
n
t

Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

now b|g of an effort shou|d the U.S. make to reduce g|oba| warm|ng?
C1 <'(:#M,)'<# #..-(*H #4#7 +. +* &', <'(:# #)-7-2+) )-,*,IC
Ma[or|t|es of the A|armed, Concerned, and Caut|ous compr|s|ng 70 percent of the U.S. popu|at|on
say the U.S. shou|d reduce |ts greenhouse gas em|ss|ons, regard|ess of what other nat|ons do.

ln llghL of Lhe global naLure of cllmaLe change, respondenLs were asked wheLher Lhe u.S. should Lake
acLlon Lo reduce lLs emlsslons alone regardless of wheLher oLher naLlons are acLlng as well or
should acL only lf oLher naLlons are reduclng Lhelr emlsslons as well.
Large ma[orlLles of Lhe AlotmeJ and coocetoeJ, and half of Lhe cootloos belleve Lhe u.S. should reduce
lLs carbon emlsslons, regardless of Lhe acLlons of oLher naLlons.
SevenLy percenL of Lhe ulseoqoqeJ say Lhey don'L know whaL Lhe u.S. should do, and half Lhe
ulsmlsslve say Lhe u.S. should noL reduce lLs emlsslons.
1he uoobtfol are dlvlded, wlLh 42 percenL saylng Lhey don'L know whaL Lhe u.S. should do, a Lhlrd
saylng we should acL regardless of oLher naLlons' acLlons, and 18 percenL saylng we should only acL lf
Lhe oLher naLlons acL as well.

1he proporLlons LhaL belleve Lhe u.S. should acL regardless of Lhe acLlons of oLher naLlons has
remalned sLable and hlgh among Lhe AlotmeJ and coocetoeJ over Lhe pasL four years.
lL has fallen wlLhln Lhe oLher four segmenLs, and flucLuaLed boLh upward and downward, suggesLlng
aLLlLudlnal lnsLablllLy.
1he proporLlon supporLlng uncondlLlonal acLlon has fallen parLlcularly among Lhe ulsmlsslve, whlch has
experlenced a decrease of 20 percenLage polnLs ln Lhe proporLlon supporLlng uncondlLlonal acLlon, a
new low for Lhls group.

93
86
32
28
33
13
1
1
6
2
1
1
2
3
10
18
11
1
3
3
30
2
11
29
70
42
23
0
30
100
uon'L know
1he uS should noL reduce lLs
emlsslons
Cnly lf oLher lndusLrlallzed and
developlng counLrles reduce
Cnly lf oLher lndusLrlallzed
counLrles reduce
8egardless of whaL oLher
counLrles do
Cond|t|ons for keduc|ng U.S. Greenhouse Gase Lm|ss|ons
n=1,034
94
93
87
86
36
32
38
28
38
33
33
13
0
30
100
e
r
c
e
n
t

CN&# =I/I /&-9<5 8#59)# D*, >(##7&-9,# >', O2+,,+-7, 8#:'(5<#,, -. @&'*
P*&#( %-97*(+#, J-C
Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

Ma[or|t|es of every segment be||eve the U.S. shou|d |ncrease |ts use of renewab|e energy,
wh||e none of the segments express ma[or|ty support for |ncreas|ng foss|| fue| use.
I|ve of the S|x Amer|cas prefer to reduce our use of foss|| fue|s.

Larly ln Lhe survey, before global warmlng was menLloned, respondenLs were asked wheLher Lhe u.S.
should lncrease or decrease lLs use of fossll fuels and renewable energy ln Lhe fuLure.
Ma[orlLles of every segmenL say LhaL Lhe u.S. should use more renewable energy ln Lhe fuLure, whlle
few belleve we should lncrease our use of fossll fuels. Lven among Lhe ulsmlsslve, more belleve we
should lncrease our use of renewable energy (34) Lhan say we should lncrease our use of fossll fuels
(46).

92
73
40
36
39
27
6
16
34
20
32
27
1
3
14
3
13
19
1
1
9
1
2
6
1
3
12
39
13 12
0
30
100
uon'L know
Much less Lhan Loday
SomewhaL less Lhan
Loday
Same amounL as Loday
SomewhaL more Lhan
Loday
Much more Lhan Loday
D7 *&# .9*9(#H 5- $-9 *&+7E *&# =7+*#5 /*'*#, ,&-9<5 9,# (#7#F'?<# #7#(:$ ,-9()#,III
n=1,043
3
7
3
2
10
26
4
9 12
2
13
20
3
7
20
11
28
31
18
34
38
12
31
9
66
32
11
18
9
3
3
11
14
33
10 9
0
30
100
uon'L know
Much less Lhan Loday
SomewhaL less Lhan
Loday
Same amounL as Loday
SomewhaL more Lhan
Loday
Much more Lhan Loday
CD7 *&# .9*9(#H 5- $-9 *&+7E *&# =7+*#5 /*'*#, ,&-9<5 9,# .-,,+< .9#<,IIIC
n=1,040
I|ve of the S|x Amer|cas favor e||m|nat|ng subs|d|es for the foss|| fue| |ndustry and oppose
e||m|nat|ng subs|d|es for the renewab|e energy |ndustry.

ln flve of Lhe Slx Amerlcas, half or more favor ellmlnaLlng subsldles for Lhe fossll fuel lndusLry, whlle a
ma[orlLy ln only one segmenL Lhe ulsmlsslve favors endlng subsldles Lo Lhe renewable energy
lndusLry.
Among Lhe AlotmeJ, 84 percenL favor ellmlnaLlng fossll fuel subsldles, whlle 21 percenL favor
ellmlnaLlng subsldles for renewable energy a four-Lo-one raLlo. Among Lhe coocetoeJ, Lhls raLlo ls
Lhree-Lo-one, Lhe raLlo ls smaller buL sLlll greaLer Lhan one-Lo-one for Lhe CauLlous, ulsengaged and
uoubLful.
Among Lhe ulsmlsslve, however, Lhe raLlo ls less Lhan one-Lo-one: 46 percenL supporL ellmlnaLlng
subsldles for fossll fuel companles and 61 percenL favor endlng subsldles for Lhe renewable energy
lndusLry.

39
24
8
13
19
17
23
44
32
37
34
29
14
28
33
41 37
21
2
3 3
8
10
33
0
30
100
L||m|nate a|| federa| subs|d|es for the foss|| fue| |ndustry
SLrongly oppose
SomewhaL
oppose
SomewehaL
supporL
SLrongly supporL
n=986
8
3 3
6
16
33
13
17
41
32
26
28
20
47
42
47
43
11
39
31
13
13
14
28
0
30
100
L||m|nate a|| federa| subs|d|es for the renewab|e energy |ndustry
SLrongly oppose
SomewhaL
oppose
SomewehaL
supporL
SLrongly supporL
n=1,002
A carbon tax that |ncreases househo|d energy costs |s supported by ma[or|t|es of
the 1<'(2#5 '75 %-7)#(7#5H and by c|ose to ha|f of the J+,#7:':#5I

Ma[orlLles of Lhe AlotmeJ and coocetoeJ supporL a carbon Lax, even lf lL lncreases household cosLs by
an average of $180, supporL among Lhe coocetoeJ ls noL sLrong, however, wlLh only 10 percenL saylng
Lhey sLrongly supporL Lhe proposal.
1he Lax ls opposed by ma[orlLles of Lhe remalnlng four segmenLs, over half of Lhe uoobtfol, and Lhree-
quarLers of Lhe ulsmlsslve sLrongly oppose a carbon Lax.

K-F 29)& 5- $-9 ,9AA-(* -( -AA-,# *&# .-<<-F+7: A-<+)$L
III8#Q9+(# )-2A'7+#, *&'* A(-59)# -( +2A-(* .-,,+< .9#<, R)-'<H -+<H '75 7'*9('< :',S *- A'$ ' *'0
(a carbon tax) even if it costs the average household an average of $180 per year.

1o assess Lhe condlLlons under whlch Amerlcans would be mosL wllllng Lo supporL a teveooe-oeottol carbon
Lax l.e., one LhaL does noL lncrease Laxes, buL shlfLs Lhem from one source Lo anoLher respondenLs were
asked Lhe followlng:

"woolJ yoo be mote ot less llkely to vote fot o cooJlJote wbo soppotts leqlslotloo to locteose toxes oo cool, oll,
and natural gas (a carbon tax) in a way that is revenue neutral (meaning the total amount of taxes
collected by the government would stay the same), if the new carbon tax

wos oseJ to poy Jowo tbe ootloool Jebt
wos oseJ to teJoce tbe leJetol locome tox tote
wos oseJ to qlve o tox tefooJ of 5180, oo ovetoqe, to eocb Ametlcoo boosebolJ
cteoteJ mote Ametlcoo jobs lo tbe teoewoble eoetqy ooJ eoetqy efflcleocy loJosttles
uecteoseJ pollotloo by eocootoqloq compooles to floJ less pollotloq oltetootlves"

Analyses of Lhe enLlre sample ldenLlfled slgnlflcanL dlfferences ln supporL for Lhe varlous opLlons.
6
1hese
dlfferences are noL conslsLenL across segmenLs: 1he analyses by segmenL reporLed below flnd LhaL some
segmenLs have slgnlflcanLly dlfferenL preferences on how Lhe revenues should be used.

6
LelserowlLz, A., Malbach, L., 8oser-8enouf, C., lelnberg, C., & Powe, . (2012) lobllc soppott fot cllmote ooJ eoetqy pollcles lo
5eptembet, 2012. ?ale unlverslLy and Ceorge Mason unlverslLy. new Paven, C1: ?ale ro[ecL on CllmaLe Change CommunlcaLlon"
hLLp://envlronmenL.yale.edu/cllmaLe/publlcaLlons/ollcy-SupporL-SepLember-2012/
33
10
4
9
2 1
38
43
31
38
8
3
24
34
30
39
38
16
4
12
13
14
33
78
0
30
100
SLrongly
oppose
SomewhaL
oppose
SomewhaL
supporL
SLrongly
supporL
n=992
1he 1<'(2#5 and %-7)#(7#5 wou|d support a cand|date advocat|ng a revenue-neutra| carbon tax,
and are favorab|e toward a|| proposed uses for the revenues
part|cu|ar|y green [ob creat|on and po||ut|on reduct|on.

Large ma[orlLles of Lhe Alarmed and Concerned say Lhey would be more llkely Lo voLe for a candldaLe
who favors enacLlng a revenue-neuLral carbon Lax Lo decrease polluLlon and supporL [ob creaLlon ln
renewable energy and energy-efflclency.
1he Alarmed prefer [ob creaLlon and decreaslng polluLlon over Lhe oLher opLlons, and favor naLlonal
debL and lncome Lax reducLlons over Lax refunds (p<.001 on all comparlsons).
Among Lhe Concerned, creaLlng [obs ls preferred over decreaslng polluLlon (p<.001), decreaslng
polluLlon over Lhe naLlonal debL (p<.01), naLlonal debL reducLlon over lncome Lax reducLlons (p<.001),
and Lax reducLlons over Lax refunds (p<.001).

T+E#<+&--5 -. 4-*+7: .-( ' )'75+5'*# F&- ,9AA-(*, ' (#4#79#M7#9*('< )'(?-7 *'0 +. *&# .975,III

73
73
48
43
32
12
18
27
22
21
2
1
10
20
28
2
1
3 4
3
2
1
3 3
7
7 3 7 9 7
0
30
100
Much more llkely SomewhaL more llkely lL would have no effecL
SomewhaL less llkely Much less llkely uon'L know
1<'(2#5
ns=173-174
30
42
38
28
20
31
37
29
31
30
6
7
13
19
23
1
1
2
3
7
1 2
3
4 3
11 11
12
14 13
0
30
100
CreaLe more Amerlcan
[obs ln Lhe renewable
energy and energy
efflclency lndusLrles
uecrease polluLlon by
encouraglng
companles Lo flnd less
polluLlng alLernaLlves
ay down Lhe naLlonal
debL
8educe Lhe lederal
lncome Lax raLe
Clve a Lax refund of
$180, on average, Lo
each Amerlcan
household
%-7)#(7#5
ns=289-294
A ma[or|ty of the J+,#7:':#5 and over a th|rd of the %'9*+-9, express no preferences on the
proposed uses for a revenue-neutra| carbon tax, say|ng that they e|ther don't know or that |t wou|d
not affect the|r vote. Sma|| ma[or|t|es of the %'9*+-9,, however, wou|d support cand|dates who
propose to use the revenue for [ob creat|on, po||ut|on reduct|on, or reduced Iedera| |ncome taxes.

Among Lhe cootloos who hold oplnlons, [ob creaLlon and polluLlon reducLlon are slgnlflcanLly preferred
over naLlonal debL reducLlon (p<.01), lncome Lax reducLlon (p<.01), and Lax refunds (p<.001).
Among Lhe ulseoqoqeJ, [ob creaLlon ls preferred over Lax reducLlons (p<.01).

T+E#<+&--5 -. 4-*+7: .-( ' )'75+5'*# F&- ,9AA-(*, ' (#4#79#M7#9*('< )'(?-7 *'0 +. *&# .975,III

20
22
19 19
16
38 33
29
32
30
13
14
17
18
23
2 4
7
6
4
3 2
6
4
6
24
23
21
21 21
0
30
100
%'9*+-9,
ns=133-136
18
9
11
12
11
22
22
23
12
9
13
18
20
18 26
2
2
43
49
47
37
33
0
30
100
CreaLe more Amerlcan
[obs ln Lhe renewable
energy and energy
uecrease polluLlon by
encouraglng companles
Lo flnd less polluLlng
alLernaLlves
ay down Lhe naLlonal
debL
8educe Lhe lederal
lncome Lax raLe
each Amerlcan
household
J+,#7:':#5
ns=66-67
Approx|mate|y ha|f of the J-9?*.9< wou|d support a cand|date who proposed to use the revenue to
create [obs or pay down the nat|ona| debt, but the ma[or|ty of the J+,2+,,+4# say they wou|d vote
aga|nst a cand|date who proposed any of the carbon tax opt|ons.

Close Lo half of Lhe uoobtfol would supporL a candldaLe who proposed a carbon Lax Lo creaLe [obs ln
renewable energy and energy-efflclency (31) or Lo pay down Lhe naLlonal debL (48). 8oLh of Lhese
opLlons were slgnlflcanLly preferred over polluLlon reducLlon (p<.05), lncome Lax reducLlons (p<.001),
and Lax refunds (p<.001).
8eLween 42 and 33 percenL of Lhe ulsmlsslve say Lhey would be much less llkely Lo voLe for a candldaLe
who favored any of Lhe opLlons for a carbon Lax. 1helr mosL preferred opLlons were creaLlng [obs
(26) and paylng down Lhe naLlonal debL (24). 1helr leasL preferred opLlon Lax refunds was
opposed slgnlflcanLly more Lhan all oLher opLlons (p<.05).

T+E#<+&--5 -. 4-*+7: .-( ' )'75+5'*# F&- ,9AA-(*, ' (#4#79#M7#9*('< )'(?-7 *'0 +. *&# .975,III

18
9
19
12
8
33
29
29
22
22
16
26
21
26
30
13
13
10
17
14
6
9 8
9
12
14 14 14 13 13
0
30
100
J-9?*.9<
ns=126-130
11
4
11
9
3
13
9
13
14
11
14
27
18
17
12
9
13
8 12
7
48
42
43
42
33
4
3
9
6
11
0
30
100
CreaLe more
Amerlcan [obs ln Lhe
renewable energy
and energy
uecrease polluLlon
by encouraglng
companles Lo flnd
less polluLlng
alLernaLlves
ay down Lhe
naLlonal debL
8educe Lhe lederal
lncome Lax raLe
each Amerlcan
household
J+,2+,,+4#
ns=78-81

C||mate & Lnergy o||cy references, 2008-2012

llgures ln Lhls secLlon lllusLraLe how supporL for cllmaLe and energy pollcles among Lhe Slx Amerlcas
has changed over Llme.
ubllc supporL for Lhese pollcles has flucLuaLed ln response Lo numerous lnfluences, such as Lhe
recesslon, sLaLemenLs made by pollLlcal leaders, medla coverage, and evenLs, such as Lhe earLhquake
and Lldal wave ln lukushlma, !apan.
8espondenLs were asked, "now mocb Jo yoo soppott ot oppose tbe followloq pollcles?" A four-polnL
response scale was used, "sLrongly supporL" Lo "sLrongly oppose."
noL all pollcles were assessed ln every survey, Lhe flgures below lnclude daLa from every survey LhaL
lncluded Lhe pollcy.

1ax rebates for purchases of energy-eff|c|ent veh|c|es and so|ar pane|s have rema|ned a popu|ar
po||cy among f|ve of the S|x Amer|cas, w|th ma[or|ty support |n each segment except the J+,2+,,+4#.
SupporL has remalned falrly sLable among Lhe groups, wlLh Lhe excepLlon of Lhe ulseoqoqeJ, whose
oplnlons have flucLuaLed, and Lhe ulsmlsslve, whose supporL has decreased.

3.6
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.8
.
2.9
2.9
2.6 2.6
2.0
1
2
3
4
rov|de tax rebates for peop|e who purchase energy-eff|c|ent veh|c|es or
so|ar pane|s
Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

SLrongly
SupporL

SomewhaL
SupporL

SomewhaL
Cppose

SLrongly
Cppose
Most Amer|cans support fund|ng research for renewab|e energy,
a|though th|s support has decreased.
SupporL has decreased ln every segmenL excepL Lhe AlotmeJ slnce Lhe fall of 2008. noneLheless, lL
remalns aL or above Lhe mlddle of Lhe scale for flve of Lhe slx segmenLs.

Ma[or|t|es of the 1<'(2#5, %-7)#(7#5, %'9*+-9, and J+,#7:':#5 support a ut|||ty requ|rement to
generate renewab|e energy, even |f |t |ncreases home energy costs.
CpposlLlon has lncreased among Lhe uoubLful and ulsmlsslve slnce 2008, buL Lhe remalnlng four
segmenLs have remalned supporLlve of Lhe pollcy.

3.8
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.3
2.9
3.2
3.0
2.S
3.0
2.0
1
2
3
4
Iund kesearch on kenewab|e Lnergy Sources, such as So|ar and W|nd ower
Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

SLrongly
SupporL

SomewhaL
SupporL

SomewhaL
Cppose

SLrongly
Cppose
3.S 3.S
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.4
2.0
2.1
1.4
1
2
3
4
Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

SLrongly
SupporL

SomewhaL
SupporL

SomewhaL
Cppose

SLrongly
Cppose

kequ|re e|ectr|c ut|||t|es to produce at |east 20 of the|r e|ectr|c|ty from w|nd, so|ar,
or other renewab|e energy sources, even |f |t costs the average househo|d an extra
5100 a year
Support for kegu|at|ng CC
2
as a o||utant has been stab|e and h|gh among the 1<'(2#5 and
%-7)#(7#5. It has f|uctuated among the rema|n|ng segments,
but |s current|y c|ose to the |eve|s reported |n 2008.

Support for bu||d|ng more nuc|ear power p|ants has decreased among a|| segments,
average support |s current|y be|ow the m|dd|e of the sca|e for four of the s|x groups.

3.7
3.6
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.S
2.2
1.8
1.6
1
2
3
4
lall 2008 !an 2010 !un 2010 nov 2011 Apr 2012 Sep 2012
kegu|ate carbon d|ox|de (the pr|mary greenhouse gas) as a po||utant
Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

SLrongly
SupporL

SomewhaL
SupporL

SomewhaL
Cppose

SLrongly
Cppose

2.4
1.9
2.6
2.2
2.7
2.4
2.6
2.2
3.1
2.6
3.S
2.8
1
2
3
4
lall 2008 !an 2010 !un 2010 May 2011 nov 2011 Apr 2012
8u||d More Nuc|ear ower |ants
Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

SLrongly
SupporL

SomewhaL
SupporL

SomewhaL
Cppose

SLrongly
Cppose


Support for offshore dr||||ng has a|so decreased |n a|| s|x segments,
but average support rema|ns above the m|dd|e of the sca|e for four of the s|x segments.

2.4
2.0
2.9
2.4
3.2
2.8
3.1
2.9
3.4
3.2
3.8
3.4
1
2
3
4
Lxpand Cffshore Dr|||||ng for C|| & Natura| Gas of f the U.S. Coast
Alarmed
Concerned
CauLlous
ulsengaged
uoubLful
ulsmlsslve

SLrongly
SupporL

SomewhaL
SupporL

SomewhaL
Cppose

SLrongly
Cppose

ercept|ons of the o||t|ca| Inf|uence of Ind|v|dua|s,
Groups & Corporat|ons on C||mate & Lnergy o||c|es

Ma[or|t|es of every group except the J+,2+,,+4# be||eve that |f they work w|th others who share
the|r v|ews, they can |nf|uence the|r representat|ves' dec|s|ons.

1he AlotmeJ express Lhe greaLesL confldence ln Lhelr ablllLy Lo lnfluence leglslaLors, wlLh over half
sLrongly agreelng LhaL Lhey can lnfluence Lhelr represenLaLlves, and 93 percenL overall agreelng wlLh
Lhe sLaLemenL.
SLrong agreemenL ls much lower among Lhe coocetoeJ (19) and very low among Lhe cootloos,
ulseoqoqeJ and uoobtfol (3 Lo 7). noneLheless, half or more of Lhese segmenLs somewhaL agree
LhaL Lhey have Lhe ablllLy Lo work wlLh oLhers Lo lnfluence Lhelr represenLaLlves.
Among Lhe ulsmlsslve, however, almosL half sLrongly dlsagree, and 62 percenL overall dlsagree LhaL
Lhey can lnfluence Lhelr represenLaLlves.
AgreemenL wlLh Lhe sLaLemenL decreases wlLh each segmenL, movlng from Lhe Alarmed Lo Lhe
ulsmlsslve. 1he resulLs suggesL LhaL Lhose who belleve global warmlng ls occurrlng feel greaLer
confldence ln Lhelr ablllLy Lo lnfluence elecLed offlclals Lhan do Lhose who do noL belleve lL ls occurrlng.

34
19
3
7 7
13
41
70
38
33
30
24
4
8
23
19
27
13
1
3
12
18
17
49
0
30
100
CD. A#-A<# F&- ,&'(# 2$ 4+#F, -7 :<-?'< F'(2+7: F-(E *-:#*&#(H F# )'7
+7.<9#7)# *&# 5#)+,+-7, -. -9( #<#)*#5 (#A(#,#7*'*+4#,IC
SLrongly
dlsagree
SomewhaL
dlsagree
SomewhaL
agree
SLrongly
agree
n=1,031
ercept|ons of the Inf|uence of D|fferent Soc|eta| Actors on the Dec|s|ons of L|ected Cff|c|a|s

AlLhough Lhe flgure on Lhe prlor page suggesLs LhaL mosL Amerlcans belleve Lhey can lnfluence Lhelr
represenLaLlves' declslons on global warmlng, Lhe comparlsons on Lhe followlng pages puL Lhls lnLo
conLexL.
1o assess respondenLs' percepLlons of Lhe relaLlve lnfluence LhaL a varleLy of socleLal acLors have on
leglslaLors, Lhey were asked: "now mocb lofloeoce Jo yoo tblok eocb of tbe followloq bos oo tbe
Jeclsloos tbot electeJ offlclols moke oboot bow to Jeol wltb qlobol wotmloq?" 1hey were Lhen
presenLed wlLh a randomlzed llsL of Len sources of pollLlcal lnfluences lndlvlduals, groups, medla
organlzaLlons and corporaLlons and asked Lo assess lnfluence on a scale from "o lot of lofloeoce" Lo
"oo lofloeoce ot oll."

1<'(2#5 ercept|ons

AlLhough 93 percenL of Lhe AlotmeJ belleve LhaL people who share Lhelr vlews could lnfluence
leglslaLors (as shown on Lhe prevlous page), Lhey see Lhemselves as havlng Lhe leost lnfluence of Lhe
Len sources: eople sharlng Lhelr vlew and local people are aL Lhe boLLom of Lhe llsL.
Cnly 14 percenL of Lhe AlotmeJ belleve LhaL people who share Lhelr vlews on global warmlng have "o
lot" of lnfluence on elecLed offlclals.
73 percenL, however, belleve LhaL large campalgn conLrlbuLors and fossll fuel companles have a loL of
lnfluence.
ubllc oplnlon polls, whlch reflecL lndlvlduals' vlews, are also seen as havlng low lnfluence, relaLlve Lo
oLher socleLal acLors.
8enewable energy companles are belleved Lo have subsLanLlally less lnfluence Lhan fossll fuel
companles.
CllmaLe sclenLlsLs and envlronmenLallsLs are LhoughL Lo have less lnfluence Lhan companles, whlle Lhe
llberal news medla are vlewed as havlng less lnfluence Lhan Lhe conservaLlve news medla.

14
16
20
21
26
27
31
32
73
73
49
32
46
40
40
39
34
37
12
17
24
21
23
23
23
23
23
17
2
2
8
3
3
10
6
6
3
6
4
1
3
3
4
6
3
3
3
9
6
4
0 30 100
eople who share your vlew on global warmlng
1he people ln your dlsLrlcL or sLaLe
ubllc oplnlon polls
1he llberal news medla
LnvlronmenLallsLs
CllmaLe sclenLlsLs
Solar, wlnd, and geoLhermal companles
1he conservaLlve news medla
Coal, oll, and naLural gas companles
Large campalgn conLrlbuLors
ercent
1<'(2#5 8e||efs about o||t|ca| Inf|uence
A loL of lnfluence Some lnfluence A llLLle lnfluence
no lnfluence uon'L know
ns=168-173
%-7)#(7#5 ercept|ons

1he Concerned are sllghLly less llkely Lhan Lhe Alarmed Lo vlew people who share Lhelr vlews as havlng
"o lot" of pollLlcal lnfluence (12 of Lhe coocetoeJ vs. 14 of Lhe AlotmeJ).
Llke Lhe AlotmeJ, Lhey vlew campalgn donors and fossll fuel companles as wleldlng Lhe greaLesL
lnfluence, alLhough Lhey percelve Lhls lnfluence as lower Lhan Lhe AlotmeJ.
1hey see Lhe conservaLlve news medla as less lnfluenLlal Lhan Lhe AlotmeJ, and belleve LhaL local
people have more lnfluence on leglslaLors Lhan elLher Lhe conservaLlve or llberal news medla.
1hey raLe slx of Lhe Len sources slmllarly, saylng 60 Lo 64 percenL exerclse "a loL" or "some" lnfluence:
8enewable energy companles, publlc oplnlon polls, envlronmenLallsLs, cllmaLe sclenLlsLs, local people
and conservaLlve medla.

12
17
20
23
27
27
20
26
38
39
33
38
41
37
34
33
44
38
20
19
28
19
13
18
18
20
17
19
4
3
9
7
4
6
3
3
3
4
4
2
16
21
19
14
16
13
13
13
13
17
0 30 100
CllmaLe sclenLlsLs
LnvlronmenLallsLs
ubllc oplnlon polls
ercent
%-7)#(7#5 8e||efs about o||t|ca| Inf|uence
ns=294-297
%'9*+-9, ercept|ons

1he cootloos vlew all Lhe sources of lnfluence as weaker Lhan Lhe AlotmeJ and coocetoeJ do.
1hey also belleve LhaL large donors and fossll fuel companles have Lhe greaLesL lnfluence, buL fewer
belleve Lhe Lwo sources have "o lot" of lnfluence 33 percenL of Lhe cootloos, as compared Lo Lhree-
quarLers of Lhe AlotmeJ and close Lo 60 percenL of Lhe coocetoeJ.
8enewable energy companles are seen as somewhaL slmllar Lo fossll fuel companles, wlLh 67 percenL
saylng fossll fuel companles exerL "o lot" or "some" lnfluence, compared Lo 63 percenL for renewable
energy companles.
AlLhough almosL Lwo-Lhlrds agree LhaL people wlLh Lhelr vlews worklng LogeLher could lnfluence
elecLed represenLaLlves (see p. 26), only 8 percenL say LhaL people who share Lhelr vlews have "a loL"
of lnfluence.

8
11
12
12
12
18
19
22
33
39
38
43
42
44
47
44
44
43
32
33
29
27
22
20
22
19
19
17
13
9
11
6
9
8
7
7
3
6
6
3
13
13
13
16
11
12
13
13
14
12
0 30 100
ubllc oplnlon polls
CllmaLe sclenLlsLs
LnvlronmenLallsLs
Large campalgn conLrlbuLors.
ercent
%'9*+-9, 8e||efs about o||t|ca| Inf|uence
ns=248-231
J+,#7:':#5 ercept|ons

1he ulsengaged hold few vlews on pollLlcal lnfluence: lor each of Lhe Len sources of pollLlcal lnfluence,
beLween 33 and 63 percenL say Lhey dont know or prefer noL Lo answer.
1he source Lhey are leasL llkely Lo have an oplnlon on ls people who share Lhelr vlews on global
warmlng, Lhls may be ln parL because Lhey have so few vlews on Lhe lssue.
Llke Lhe prlor segmenLs, Lhe ulsengaged belleve LhaL large campalgn conLrlbuLors and fossll fuel
companles exerL Lhe greaLesL pollLlcal lnfluence, Lhough Lhe proporLlons LhaL hold Lhese bellefs are
much lower Lhan among Lhe oLher segmenLs.
8enewable energy companles are vlewed as Lhe second leasL lnfluenLlal sources of lnfluence, wlLh 13
percenL saylng Lhey exerclse "o lot" or "some" lnfluence.

1
4
7
3
4
4
6
3
16
26
8
9
8
13
16
16
14
18
13
8
8
16
10
9
13
8
13
6
3
21
11
20
13
6
14
6
11
6
12
63
60
36
60
39
39
60
60
60
33
0 30 100
LnvlronmenLallsLs
ubllc oplnlon polls
CllmaLe sclenLlsLs
ercent
J+,#7:':#5 ercept|ons of o||t|ca| Inf|uence
ns=77-80
J-9?*.9< ercept|ons

As wlLh Lhe prlor segmenLs, large campalgn conLrlbuLors and fossll fuel companles are Lhe Lwo groups
percelved Lo have "a loL of lnfluence" on elecLed offlclals, when "some lnfluence" ls consldered as well,
however, renewable energy companles are vlewed as havlng sllghLly more lnfluence Lhan fossll fuel
companles.
1he dlfference ln percelved lnfluence beLween donors and fossll fuel companles ls much greaLer,
however, wlLh Lwlce as many uoobtfol saylng LhaL large campalgn conLrlbuLors exerL "o lot" of
lnfluence, as compared Lo fossll fuel companles.
lossll fuel companles are vlewed by Lhe uoobtfol as comparable ln lnfluence Lo envlronmenLallsLs,
llberal medla, renewable energy companles and cllmaLe sclenLlsLs.
As wlLh Lhe oLher segmenLs, Lhe uoobtfol belleve LhaL people who share Lhelr vlews have Lhe leasL
lnfluence of Lhe Len sources.

4
6
7
7
24
10
23
26
21
32
24
26
29
33
28
44
32
30
37
17
18
34
33
30
20
20
19
22
13
11
37
16
18
16
11
8
10
9
9
9
17
19
11
11
18
19
16
14
18
12
0 30 100
ubllc oplnlon polls
CllmaLe sclenLlsLs
LnvlronmenLallsLs
ercent
J-9?*.9< ercept|ons of o||t|ca| Inf|uence
ns=123-132
J+,2+,,+4# ercept|ons

1he ulsmlsslve are slmllar Lo Lhe oLher segmenLs ln bellevlng LhaL people who share Lhelr vlews on
global warmlng have less pollLlcal lnfluence Lhan any of Lhe oLher sources.
1hey dlffer, however, ln Lhe power Lhey aLLrlbuLe Lo Lhe llberal news medla, wlLh half saylng llberal
medla exerclse "o lot" of lnfluence on elecLed offlclals. lor Lhe ulsmlsslve, Lhe llberal medla are
comparable ln lnfluence Lo large campalgn conLrlbuLors.
8y conLrasL, only nlne percenL belleve Lhe conservaLlve news medla exerL "o lot" of lnfluence, maklng
Lhem Lhe second leasL lnfluenLlal source.
LnvlronmenLallsLs, renewable energy companles, cllmaLe sclenLlsLs and publlc oplnlon polls are
belleved Lo have more lnfluence Lhan fossll fuel companles. Among all oLher segmenLs Lhe fossll fuel
lndusLry ls percelved as more powerful Lhan any of Lhese, wlLh Lhe slngle excepLlon of Lhe uoobtfol,
who agree wlLh Lhe ulsmlsslve LhaL renewable energy companles have more pollLlcal lnfluence Lhan
fossll fuel companles.

3
9
9
13
18
22
34
39
49
31
11
13
19
22
19
20
18
13
13
9
23
30
23
23
19
21
11
13
6
6
44
33
34
26
31
18
23
18
17
21
14
13
13
17
13
20
14
16
13
13
0 30 100
eople who share your vlew on global
warmlng
1he people ln Lhelr dlsLrlcL or sLaLe
ubllc oplnlon polls
CllmaLe sclenLlsLs
LnvlronmenLallsLs
ercent
J+,2+,,+4# ercept|ons of o||t|ca| Inf|uence
ns=77-80
Methodo|ogy

1hese resulLs come from naLlonally represenLaLlve surveys of Amerlcan adulLs, aged 18 and older. 1he
samples were welghLed Lo correspond wlLh u.S. Census 8ureau parameLers for Lhe unlLed SLaLes.

1he surveys were deslgned by AnLhony LelserowlLz, Ceoff lelnberg, nlcholas SmlLh, !ay Pmlelowskl and eLer
Powe of ?ale unlverslLy, and by Ldward Malbach and Connle 8oser-8enouf of Ceorge Mason unlverslLy. 1he
surveys were conducLed by knowledge neLworks, uslng an onllne research panel of Amerlcan adulLs.

SepLember 2012: AugusL 31 Lhrough SepLember 12, wlLh 1,061 Amerlcan adulLs
March 2012: llelded March 12 Lhrough March 30 wlLh 1,008 Amerlcan adulLs.
november 2011: llelded CcLober 20 Lhrough november 16 wlLh 1,000 Amerlcan adulLs.
May 2011: llelded Aprll 23 Lhrough May 12 wlLh 981 Amerlcan adulLs.
!une 2010: llelded May 14 Lhrough !une 1 wlLh 1,024 Amerlcan adulLs.
!anuary 2010: llelded uecember 24, 2009 Lhrough !anuary 3, 2010 wlLh 1,001 Amerlcan adulLs.
november 2008: llelded CcLober 7 Lhrough november 12 wlLh 2,164 Amerlcan adulLs. uaLa were
collecLed ln Lwo waves: Wave 1 from CcLober 7 Lhrough CcLober 20, and wave 2 from CcLober 24
Lhrough november 12.

1he margln of sampllng error for Lhe november 2008 survey ls plus or mlnus 2 percenL wlLh 93 percenL
confldence. 1he margln of sampllng error for all oLher surveys ls plus or mlnus 3 percenL, wlLh 93 percenL
confldence.

1he slx audlence segmenLs were flrsL ldenLlfled ln analyses of Lhe 2008 daLa seL. LaLenL Class Analysls was
used Lo segmenL respondenLs, based on 36 varlables represenLlng four dlsLlncL consLrucLs: global warmlng
bellefs, lssue lnvolvemenL, pollcy preferences and behavlors.

ulscrlmlnanL funcLlons derlved from Lhe laLenL class analysls were used wlLh Lhe 2012, 2011 and 2010 daLa
seLs Lo repllcaLe Lhe earller analysls and ldenLlfy changes ln Lhe groups. 8esponses on Lhree lLems used ln Lhe
SepL. 2012 segmenLaLlon were lmpuLed for 34 cases uslng hoL-deck lmpuLaLlon because Lhe quesLlons were
lnadverLenLly omlLLed from Lhe survey, for deLalls, please conLacL Lhe sLudy auLhors.

All prlor reporLs on Clobal Warmlng's Slx Amerlcas are avallable aL our webslLes:
hLLp://cllmaLechange.gmu.edu and hLLp://envlronmenL.yale.edu/cllmaLe


Append|x
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Yale's Six Americas

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Yale's Six Americas

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global warmings

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Yale&#39;s Six Americas

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global warmings

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Yale's Six Americas

Yale's Six Americas