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38111371 trend-analysis
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1. Trend analysisThe term "trend analysis" refers to the concept of collecting information and
attemptingto spot a pattern, or trend, in the information. In some fields of study, the term "trendanalysis"
has more formally-defined meanings. [1] [2] [3]In project management trend analysis is a mathematical
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trend
38111371 trend-analysis
by Vikram Talwar, Working at ICSI (Inst it ut e of Company Secret aries of India)
on Oct 07, 2011

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technique that uses historicalresults to predict future outcome. This is achieved by tracking variances in
cost andschedule performance. In this context, it is a project management quality control tool. [4]
[5]Although trend analysis is often used to predict future events, it could be used to estimateuncertain
events in the past, such as how many ancient kings probably ruled between twodates, based on data such
as the average years which other known kings reigned.[edit] HistoryToday, trend analysis often refers to
the science of studying changes in social patterns,including fashion, technology and the consumer
behavior.What Does Trend Analysis Mean?An aspect of technical analysis that tries to predict the future
movement of a stock based on pastdata. Trend analysis is based on the idea that what has happened in
the past gives traders anidea of what will happen in the future.Trend AnalysisTrend analysiscalculates the
percentage change for one account over a period of time of two years ormore. Percentage changeTo
calculate the percentage change between two periods: 1. Calculate the amount of the increase/(decrease)
for the period by subtracting the earlier year from the later year. If the difference is negative, the change
is a decrease and if the difference is positive, it is an increase. 2. Divide the change by the earlier years
balance. The result is the percentage change. Calculation of Percentage Change
2. 20X1 20X0 Increase/(Decrease) Percent Change Cash $ 6,950 $ 6,330 $ 620 9.8% Accounts
Receivable, net 18,567 19,330 (763) (3.9%) Sales 129,000 103,000 26,000 25.2% Rent Expense 10,000
0 10,000 N/M Net Income (Loss) 8,130 (1,400) 9,530 N/MCalculation notes: 1. 20X0 is the earlier year
so the amount in the 20X0 column is subtracted from the amount in the 20X1 column. 2. The percent
change is the increase or decrease divided by the earlier amount (20X0 in this example) times 100.
Written as a formula, the percent change is: 3. 4. If the earliest year is zero or negative, the percent
calculated will not be meaningful. N/M is used in the above table for not meaningful. 5. Most percents are
rounded to one decimal place unless more are meaningful. 6. A small absolute dollar item may have a
large percentage change and be considered misleading.Trend percentagesTo calculate the change over a
longer period of timefor example, to develop a sales trendfollow thesteps below: 1. Select the base
year. 2. For each line item, divide the amount in each nonbase year by the amount in the base year and
multiply by 100. 3. In the following example, 20W7 is the base year, so its percentages (see bottom half
of the following table) are all 100.0. The percentages in the other years were calculated by dividing each
amount in a particular year by the corresponding amount in the base year and multiply by 100.
Calculation of Trend Percentages 20X1 20X0 20W9 20W8 20W7 Historical Data Inventory $ 12,309
$12,202 $12,102 $11,973 $11,743 Property & equipment 74,422 78,938 64,203 65,239 68,450 Current
liabilities 27,945 30,347 27,670 28,259 26,737 Sales 129,000 97,000 95,000 87,000 81,000 Cost of
goods sold 70,950 59,740 48,100 47,200 45,500 Operating expenses 42,600 38,055 32,990 29,690
27,050 Net income (loss) 8,130 (1,400) 7,869 5,093 3,812
3. 20X1 20X0 20W9 20W8 20W7 Trend Percentages Inventory 104.8 103.9 103.1 102.0 100.0 Property
& equipment 108.7 115.3 93.8 95.3 100.0 Current liabilities 104.5 113.5 103.5 105.7 100.0 Sales 159.3
119.8 117.3 107.4 100.0 Cost of goods sold 155.9 131.3 105.7 103.7 100.0 Operating expenses 157.5
140.7 122.0 109.8 100.0 Net income (loss) 213.3 (36.7) 206.4 133.6 100.0Calculation notes: 1. The base
year trend percentage is always 100.0%. A trend percentage of less than 100.0% means the balance has
decreased below the base year level in that particular year. A trend percentage greater than 100.0%
means the balance in that year has increased over the base year. A negative trend percentage represents a
negative number. 2. If the base year is zero or negative, the trend percentage calculated will not be
meaningful.In this example, the sales have increased 59.3% over the five-year period while the cost of
goods sold hasincreased only 55.9% and the operating expenses have increased only 57.5%. The trends
look different ifevaluated after four years. At the end of 20X0, the sales had increased almost 20%, but
the cost of goodssold had increased 31%, and the operating expenses had increased almost 41%. These
20X0 trendpercentages reflect an unfavorable impact on net income because costs increased at a faster
rate thansales. The trend percentages for net income appear to be higher because the base year amount is
muchsmaller than the other balances.Read more: http://www.cliffsnotes.com/study_guide/Trend-
Analysis.topicArticleId-21248,articleId-21211.html#ixzz0wZwc4UNX
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