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As ISIS insurgents quickly gain ground in Iraq, American and allied veterans and policymakers
look on in dismay and heartbreak at the lives and nation-building efforts lost. The end had
finally appeared to be in sight, but it turns out that the US was just playing one really long
game of Chutes and Ladders, with Obama administration policies landing us right back at the
beginning once again.
Have a good week,
Your AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Studies team


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In the News

Crisis in Iraq
Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) captured another major town, Tal Afar, in northern Iraq on Sunday,
forcing hundreds of families to flee into the surrounding desert as their country descended into a new round
of bloodletting. It came as the US government announced that it was drawing down staff at its embassy in
Baghdad.

In recent weeks, al Qaedaaligned insurgents have effectively taken over the countrys second-largest city,
Mosul, and Saddam Husseins hometown of Tikrit. The White House has called on the Iraqi government to
step up to the plate, while rebuffing Prime Minister Nouri al-Malikis request for assistance with airstrikes
against ISIS staging areas. As the black flags of ISIS rise over the two cities, a new directive is on the
horizon: march on Baghdad. Join us for a conversation on Wednesday with Senator J ohn McCain (R-AZ)
and General J ack Keane (ret.) as they assess the deteriorating security situation in Iraq and consider what
role the US should play to help the Iraqi government confront terrorists hostile to democratic government in
Baghdad and Washington.

President Obama says that he is mulling options for providing support to Iraq, but with great reluctance.
"The US is not simply going to involve itself in a military action in the absence of a political plan by the
Iraqis," the president said Friday. Frederi ck W. Kagan argues that a political plan for Iraq is vital, but the
Iraqis need vigorous and intelligent American involvement right now to prevent a stalemate that will leave
ISIS in control of much of northern Iraq.

ICYMI: Paul Wolfowitz appeared on Meet the Press on Sunday morning. Watch his take on the future of
Iraq and why Maliki is a big part of the current problem here.

When Barack Obama was first elected, it was in no small part a reaction to what Americans perceived as
failed or unnecessary wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The president, once elected, expended vast quantities
of oxygen bemoaning the burdensome legacy his predecessor had bequeathed him. Danielle Pl etka writes
for US News and World Report, Obamas choice to walk away from the Middle East sealed the fate of Iraq
and too many others. Now faced with disaster, the administration is scrambling to at once appear engaged
without doing anything. In Syria, this is virtually impossible, as the myriad of groups battling for and against
President Bashar Assad mean that even if Obama belatedly chooses to arm certain among them, there will
no clean conclusion to the chaotic war that has killed close on 200,000 people."

Also see Danielle's blog post from this morning: Iran offers help in Iraq. Just say 'no' .

In November 2011, the Pentagon warned that withdrawing all American troops from Iraq would create a
power vacuum that would later be filled by Iran. J ust as the Pentagon predicted, Iran is now taking
advantage of the crisis to send its forces into Iraq, a situation that could have been avoided had the Obama
administration heeded the Iraqi governments pleas for airstrikes against ISIS. Marc Thiessen writes,
Terrific. So we have a situation in Iraq now where our Sunni extremist enemies (ISIS) are fighting our Shiite
extremist enemies (Iran) for control of Iraq a country we liberated at the cost of thousands of American
lives.

Back in 2010 J oe Biden claimed that Iraq would go down as one of the great achievements of [the Obama]
administration. Now, President Obama plans to replicate this great achievement in Afghanistan by
withdrawing all US forces from the country by the end of 2016. With the news breaking Tuesday morning
that al Qaedaaffiliated insurgents had seized Mosul, Thiessen asks, Is that what Biden considers one of
[Obamas] great achievements? And is it really an achievement we want to replicate in Afghanistan?
Apparently so.

Watch Thiessen's appearance on Fox News's The Kelly File, reacting to the deterioration of security in
Iraq.

In a piece for CNN Global Public Square, Michael Rubin sheds light on the complexity of the threat: The
reality in Mosul, Beiji, and Tikrit is that the enemy is not simply al Qaeda, but a coalition of forces dedicated
to the eradication of both democracy and Shiite power in Iraq. With American and UN officials pressuring
long pressuring Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to reverse de-Baathification and to empower former regime
officials, what happened earlier this week seems an eerie repeat of events of a decade ago.

Middle East and South Asia
The radical Sunni militia that has plunged Iraq into chaos bragged on Sunday that it had executed hundreds
of Shiite Iraqi soldiers, even as the Obama administration said it is preparing to open direct talks with Iran on
how the two longtime foes can counter the insurgents.
Irans Islamic Revolution unleashed a sectarian wave, which has flooded the Middle East. But while many
characterize Middle Eastern Shiites as under the sway of the Islamic Republic, Shiites from countries like
Lebanon, Bahrain, Iraq, and Azerbaijan relentlessly work to resist Iranian influence. On Thursday, please
join anal ysts from the United States and across the Middle East to discuss Shiite strategies to preserve
communal independence and how the United States can successfully work with Shiite communities outside
Iran.

In The Shi'ites of Paki stan: A minority under si ege, Ahmad Majidyar writes on the rise of Shiite-Sunni
hostilities and the violence against Shiites post-9/11 in Pakistan. He notes that the Pakistani government
has failed to protect the countrys Shiite minority from perpetual violence by Sunni sectarian militant
organizations. The sectarian conflict in Pakistan poses a huge risk of destabilizing the nuclear-armed
country and engulfing the surrounding region, especially as American troops prepare to leave Afghanistan.

Last week, US and Iranian negotiators met in Geneva in an attempt to renew the nuclear talks that had
fallen apart last month over the issue of Irans enrichment capacity. So what explains the failure of nuclear
negotiations? Daniell e Pl etka takes to the AEIdeas blog to offer her theory.

As thousands gathered on J une 3 at Ayatollah Khomeinis shrine in Tehran to commemorate the 25th
anniversary of his passing, current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered a passionate speech in which
he praised the revolutionary ideals of his predecessor and condemned the US for insisting on Irans
declining capabilities and influence. Matthew McInnis discusses how Irans perception of a weak US and
the growing challenge of Sunni extremism and sectarian conflict will affect Irans calculus as we enter into a
critical phase of nuclear negotiations.

In 2005, Washington denied Narendra Modi a US visa over allegations of severe violations of religious
freedom linked to Hindu-Muslim riots in the state. Now that Narendra Modi is the most powerful person in
India, it is time for the US to play catch-up in cultivating a relationship with him. Sadanand Dhume writes,
To get the US India relationship to thrive doesnt require dwelling on this awkward backstory, but it does
require acknowledging it. The simplest way is to ensure that Mr. Modi gets a welcome in Washington that
not even his fiercest supporters can characterize as cold.

Derek Scissors addresses the question of whether President Obama should move to cement relations with
Indias new leader: Modi now has the opportunity to improve the lives of all Indians through badly needed
economic reform. This is how the Obama administration should view him.

Sergeant Bergdahl
Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, who returned to the US on Friday in good physical condition, probably faces a
lengthy recovery adjusting to life after five years of captivity in Afghanistan, Army medical specialists said.
Facing an unexpected uproar over his decision to release five Taliban leaders in exchange for Sgt. Bowe
Bergdahl, President Obama has tried to defend himself by declaring that, though it is absolutely possible
these men could return to the battlefield, this is what happens at the end of wars. But does the coming
withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan really end the state of war between the United States and the
Taliban? Marc Thiessen argues, No matter how Obama dressed it up, in the absence of a peace
agreement or capitulation by the Taliban, a unilateral declaration ending our mandate to fight the Taliban
under the AUMF and returning all Taliban prisoners would be an act of surrender.

Defense
The US Navy on Sunday welcomed four members of Chinas military aboard one of its aircraft carriers
and said it hoped to receive a return invite someday. The four Peoples Liberation Army members were
among guests flown by a C-2 Greyhound aircraft to the USS George Washington for a VIP visit before it
berths Monday off Hong Kong on a routine call.
General J ames F. Amos, US Marine Corps commandant, has called the Marines "America's crisis response
force." But ongoing budget cuts mean our 911 force may be much smaller in the future, and while the
Marine Corps is set to shrink in coming years, threats to American interests are unlikely to experience a
similar decline. How will the Marine Corps balance competing priorities in capacity, capability, recruiting, and
retention and readiness as it becomes increasingly likely that near-sequestration-level budgets are here to
stay? What will the consequences be for men and women in uniform and for American interests abroad? On
June 24, please join the Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies and General Amos for a
conversation on these questions and more.

Last November, the House Armed Services Committee embarked on an effort to reform what is universally
recognized as a broken acquisition system within the Department of Defense. Wi lliam Greenwalt writes,
The commitment of leaders like Representatives Thornberry and Smith will be critical to successful reform
this time around. The questions that remain to be answered will be how long this focus can be sustained
and what will be the scope of the acquisition problems they intend to address.

Budget challenges, a shrinking military force, and unrestrained growth in personnel and operations has
plunged the Pentagon into a state of crisis at a time when we are facing unprecedented challenges to our
national security. Roger Zakheim argues, The President, must, however, find a way to work with Congress
to undo the sequester knot. This is not a partisan problem. Working together, our leaders must find a way to
break the Budget Control Acts yoke burdening our military and restraining our power.

World Cup
US Vice President Joe Biden begins a four-country trip across Latin America on Monday that starts with a
stop in Brazil to cheer the US team as it faces Ghana in the World Cup.

No doubt Brazil is a ftbol powerhouse and, despite its uninspired performance in the opening game, is a
contender to win the world championship. What many are wondering is why Brazil has failed to live up to
expectations in terms of domestic development, global trade, and energy. Roger Noriega places the World
Cup in a larger context for FoxNews.com, asking "Can Brazil score both at soccer and win on the economic
stage?"

Mexicos president, Enrique Pea Nieto, focused on economic reforms for his first year in office and only
now has begun to tackle violence in the country. Central American nations are too weak or, in the case of El
Salvadors new government, too complicit in criminality to confront the powerful, multibillion-dollar criminal
enterprises that collaborate with Colombian cocaine smugglers, a Venezuelan narcostate, illegal arms
smugglers, and Hezbollah to threaten the security and well-being of the Americas. On Tuesday, Rep. Matt
Salmon (R-AZ), chairman of the House Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, will assess the threat
to US interests and recommend policy options, and a panel of experts will discuss.

HEADS UP: Stay tuned to AEI.org later today for a piece by Roger Noriega, reacting to Sundays
presidential elections in Colombia.

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