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Durum Report
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The next issue of Stratgie grains Durum Report will be available on 31st March 2014
Third year - No 17 / 27 January 2014 - English version
Durum wheat
2013/14 2014/15
July-June
as of
25/11/13
as of
27/01/14
carry-in stock 0.9 1.0
production 7.9 7.7
imports 1.5 1.7
domestic use 8.7 8.7
exports 0.6 0.7
carry-out stock 1.0 1.1
surplus / required stock 0.1 0.1
8,17
7,94
7,70
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
SUMMARY
Canadian 2013/14 ending-stocks
forecast at a very high level but
world prices stay quite high be-
cause of logistical delays
Outlook rather heavy for
2014/15 at the world level
though European supplies are forecast rather low
CROP YEAR 2013/14
DURUM WHEAT SUPPLY
2013 harvest revised down
PRODUCTION
We have reduced our estimate for 2013 durum wheat pro-
duction in the EU by 160 kt to 7.9 Mt since last month.
Durum wheat production in Spain is revised down by 80 kt to
take account of the latest official data. It is now estimated at 900
kt.
Production in France is revised down by 70 kt to reflect an ad-
justment for planted area. We have also made small adjustments
for Slovakia and Romania (-10 kt each).
The 2013 durum wheat harvest is now estimated 0.2 Mt be-
low the level of 2012. The harvests were considerably smaller
than in 2012 in France (-0.6 Mt) and Italy (-0.3 Mt) but these
falls were partly offset by better harvests in Spain (+0.5 Mt) and
Greece (+0.2 Mt).
IMPORTS FROM NON-EU COUNTRIES
Import licence fixations totalled 892 kt between July 2, 2013
and January 21, 2014.
January saw a growth in the volume of licences issued to Italy.
In the first 3 weeks of 2014, Italian importers applied for 142
kt. This increase should be just sufficient to cover the 1.14 Mt
that we project Italy will import in 2013/14. We have reduced
our estimate for Italian imports from third countries by 150 kt
because it imported significant volumes of durum wheat from
France, Greece and Spain in July-December 2013 (see below).
In addition, delays to import shipments from Canada suggest
that some of the imports we originally forecast for 2013/14 will
actually arrive in 2014/15.
We have reduced estimated durum wheat imports from
non-EU countries in 2013/14 by 120 kt to 1.47 Mt. Small
increases for Germany (+10 kt), Spain (+10 kt) and Portugal
(+10 kt) are insufficient to fully offset the reduction for Italy.
EU durum wheat imports in 2013/14 are now estimated at the
same level as in 2012/13.
DEMAND FOR DURUM WHEAT
Durum wheat use in animal feeds
revised up
DEMAND FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION AND IN-
DUSTRIAL USAGE
Graphic 1: EU durum wheat production (Mt)
2
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
kt 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Canada 882 879 932 1125
USA 285 254 201 255
Australia 341 172 160 160
Mexico 55 148 145 120
Turkey 0 0 0 0
Others 146 32 29 37
Total 1709 1485 1467 1697
area (Mha) yield (t/ha) production (Mt)
11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Spain 0.38 0.41 0.34 0.33 2.38 1.08 2.64 2.30 0.90 0.44 0.90 0.75
France 0.42 0.44 0.33 0.34 4.85 5.44 5.26 5.21 2.02 2.38 1.75 1.75
Greece 0.48 0.45 0.49 0.47 1.70 1.43 1.71 1.75 0.81 0.65 0.83 0.82
Italy 1.16 1.26 1.18 1.22 3.17 3.37 3.33 3.20 3.67 4.24 3.93 3.89
Others 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.11 4.55 3.77 4.51 4.40 0.59 0.46 0.52 0.50
EU 28 2.56 2.68 2.46 2.46 3.12 3.05 3.23 3.13 7.99 8.17 7.94 7.70
7,68
7,73
7,75
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
We estimate demand for durum wheat for
human consumption and industrial usage in
2013/14 up by 50 kt since last month to 7.7
Mt.
This increase relates to Germany and corre-
sponds to an update to supply and demand in
previous years to reflect the latest official statis-
tics. Durum wheat use for human consump-
tion in 2013/14 is revised up by 30 kt.
Total human/industrial demand for durum
wheat is estimated virtually stable compared
with 2012/13 (+40 kt).
DURUM WHEAT USE IN ANIMAL
FEEDS
Durum wheat use in animal feeds in 2013/14
is revised up by 120 kt this month to 0.4 Mt.
This level is still extremely low but is neverthe-
less higher than in 2012/13. This is because
the quality of 2013-crop durum wheat, nota-
bly in Spain and Greece, was not as good as in
previous years. Hence this wheat is less easily
exportable to non-EU countries, which leaves
greater availability for use in animal feeds. We
have also sharply reduced estimated Italian ex-
ports (see below), which has
allowed for a reduction in es-
timated imports and has also
liberated availability for use
in animal feeds. Until now,
we estimated durum wheat
use in Italian animal feeds at
a very low level for 2013/14,
but it is now forecast more in
line with demand in previous
years, although still quite low.
We have increased durum
wheat use in animal feeds by 50 kt in Spain, 60
kt in Italy and 20 kt in Greece.
We have also increased estimated durum
wheat use in animal feeds in Belgium and the
Netherlands. These countries have been im-
porting low quality durum wheat for use in
animal feeds.
DURUM WHEAT TRADE
Intra-EU trade again revised up exports to non-EU countries revised down
INTRA-EU TRADE
Estimated intra-EU durum wheat trade in
2013/14 is revised up 0.2 Mt this month to
2.2 Mt (+60 kt compared with 2012/13).
The trade trends we highlighted in the previ-
ous report have been confirmed. The outlets
of European exporters are mainly other EU
countries. 2013-crop durum wheat from
Greece, France and Spain is not very attractive
for importers in North Africa this year because
European quality is not as good as last year. By
contrast, Italy is able to use this grade of durum
wheat in mixes with other EU wheat for its
pasta production and hence does not need to
import durum wheat from Canada.
We have increased estimated Italian durum
wheat imports from other EU countries by
130 kt this month. We now forecast that Italy
will import around 0.2 Mt more durum wheat
from EU partners than in 2012/13.
We have also slightly increased our imports
forecasts for Belgium (+30 kt), Netherlands
(+30 kt), Slovakia (+30 kt) and Poland (+30
kt) to reflect the latest customs statistics.
These increases mainly relate to shipments
from Greece (+100 kt compared with our
December estimate), although we also revised
up projected French exports (+40 kt). Spanish
exports to Italy are expected higher than in
2012/13 and recorded exports so far are in line
with our latest forecast.
We have also increased projected Slovakian ex-
ports (+30 kt) and Austrian exports (+20 kt)
to reflect the latest customs statistics.
WORLD DURUM WHEAT
MARKET
Production: new increase for
Canadian harvests estimate
We have adopted that latest
official Statcan estimate for
durum wheat production in
Canada of 6.5 Mt (+0.5 Mt
compared with our December
estimate). Yield for this years
durum wheat crop is truly ex-
ceptional: it constitutes a +37
% increase on the trend yield.
In the past 20 years, the trend yield was only
ever exceeded by +18 %. However, grain quali-
ty is not as good as in previous years. Due to the
extremely high yields, protein content is lower.
Rainfall in the last weeks of harvest also nega-
tively impacted grain quality (low protein con-
tent associated with increased moisture favours
loss of vitreousness). Wheat type CWAD2
normally attains around 80 % of fully vitreous
grains; this year the rate will be around 60 %.
Graphic 2: EU demand for human consumption
and industrial usage (Mt)
Table 2: EU durum wheat imports from third
countries (kt)
Table 1: acreage, yields and production for the main EU28 durum wheat
producers
3
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
Since our December report, there have been no
other changes to our estimates to production in
the main durum wheat importing and export-
ing countries.
Taking account of the reduction for EU pro-
duction (-0.2 Mt), durum wheat production
in the main importing and exporting coun-
tries is now estimated at 23.2 Mt, up from
22.9 Mt in December. This represents an in-
crease of 1.3 Mt compared with the 2012 har-
vest, which is mainly due to the better harvests
in Canada and Morocco in 2013.
World demand revised up
We have this month increased estimated global
demand for durum wheat by 0.2 Mt to 20.3
Mt. In addition to higher demand in the EU
(+170 kt since December), we have also in-
creased estimated demand in animal feeds and
estimated losses in Canada by 0.1 Mt, given the
size of the harvest.
We now estimate demand for durum wheat in
the main importing and exporting countries
up by 0.2 Mt compared with 2012/13
World durum wheat trade
Price movements
Durum wheat prices in the main exporting
countries have increased through the last 2
months. In France, the price rose from 345 $/t
delivered La Pallice on November 29 to 354
$/t on January 17. In Italy, the price rose even
more sharply, from 352 $/t delivered north
Italy to 379 $/t. In Canada, the DDC price
used by the Canadian wheat board rose by 10
$/t to 280 $/t for CWAD1 but was stable for
CWAD2 at around 240 $/t.
Through the same time period, the FOB
Rouen soft wheat price fell by more than 10
$/t. Hence the premium for durum wheat
compared with soft wheat has increased in the
last 2 months.
The logistical difficulties currently impact-
ing grain exports from Canada, which are ex-
pected to continue until the end of the winter,
are keeping upward pressure on durum wheat
prices.
Change in world import levels
We have reduced estimated world durum
wheat trade by 0.2 Mt since our December re-
port. Import demand in the EU has decreased
by around 0.1 Mt (see above). We also reduced
estimated Algerian import demand by 0.2 Mt.
By December 2, 2013, Algeria had imported
80 kt from Canada. France had only exported
60 kt to Algeria in the first 7 months of the crop
year. As of November 1, Mexico had exported
around 200 kt to Algeria. Hence the rate of
imports by Algeria in the first months of the
crop year was very low compared with the 1.5
Mt of durum wheat that Algerian normally
imports each year. This is almost certainly be-
cause Algerian importers came rather late to
market as they expected the Canadian durum
wheat price to continue falling. We have also
reduced projected Turkish imports by 0.1
Mt because Turkey produced a better durum
wheat harvest than last year (in terms of quality
and quantity) and the rate of Turkish imports
so far in 2013/14 is low.
These reductions are partly offset by higher
demand in Iran. The Iranian state body GTC,
which controls part of the countrys grain
trade, purchased 250 kt of durum wheat from
Mexico for delivery March-April 2014 on
December 17, 2013. Iran has never before (in
the last 10 years) imported more than 10 kt of
durum wheat. By contrast, before the start of
the civil war, Syria was major durum wheat
producer and consumer. According to the
FAO, grain production in Syria has probably
declined by around a half because of the con-
flict. It is therefore very probable that Iran has
imported durum wheat in order to re-export
the grains to its neighbour Syria.
Change in world export levels
Compared with our December report, we
have significantly altered the estimated break-
down of global durum wheat trade between
the main importing and exporting countries.
Mexican exports are revised up by 0.4 Mt to 1.2
Mt. This is at the expense of Canadian exports
(-0.2 Mt), US exports (-0.1 Mt) and indeed
EU exports, which have also decreased this
month.
EU exports on the world market are revised
down by 380 kt to 560 kt (down 0.6 Mt com-
pared with 2012/13). In our December report,
we revised down projected French exports; this
month sees reductions for exports from Italy
(-120 k), Spain (-170 kt) and Greece (-120 kt),
to reflect export licence fixations so far and the
latest customs statistics. Italy has not exported
a great deal because demand is high on its do-
mestic market. Grain quality in Greece and
Spain was not as good as last year, and these
two countries have mainly been exporting their
durum wheat to Italy.
As of January 21, the European Commission
had issued 366 kt of durum wheat export li-
cences in 2013/14 compared with 592 kt on
the same date in 2013. This total will prob-
ably not increase much more on account of
increased competition from Canada as the
spring arrives and the weather is more condu-
cive to grain transportation and exports within
Canada.
World durum wheat stock
Projected stocks have increased since last
month, especially in North America. The
larger Canadian harvest forecast generates
estimated ending stock of 2.1 Mt (July-June
2013/14, compared with 1.6 Mt estimated in
our December report); this represents a stock-
to-use ratio of almost 36 % (27 % in 2012/13).
In the USA, this months fall in projected ex-
ports generates an increase in the stock-to-use
ratio from 17% (December estimate) to 20 %.
However, stocks in the USA are set to remain
relatively low because acreage planted with du-
rum wheat in 2013 was very small due the wet
weather in spring 2013.
Total estimated durum wheat stock in the
main importing and exporting countries has
increased by 0.6 Mt since our December re-
port. Although stocks are projected high in
North America, the slow pace of imports in
Algeria and Tunisia could translate into a rela-
tively tight situation for these countries at the
end of 2013/14.
4
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
origins destinations 2013/14
Ger. B/L Den. Spn. Fra. Gre. Irl. Ita. NL Por. U.K. Aust. Fin. Swe. Pol. Hun. Cze. Slk. Est. Lat. Lit. Sln. Cyp. Mal. Ro. Bul. Cro. EU
Ger. 17 4 0 1 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 30
B/L 128 0 0 29 0 0 14 58 0 0 2 1 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 234
Den. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Spn. 15 10 0 19 0 0 106 2 107 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 272
Fra. 114 176 3 47 8 5 406 53 2 54 0 0 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 892
Gre. 1 0 0 -0 0 0 214 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 216
Irl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Ita. 1 6 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 18
Neth. 31 26 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 63
Por. 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
U.K. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aust. 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 6 12 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 55
Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Swed. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pol. 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8
Hun. 13 0 0 0 0 10 0 4 0 0 0 12 0 0 2 1 21 1 0 0 6 7 0 10 4 1 93
Cz.R. 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 0 0 0 13 0 0 26 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
Slk. 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 1 0 0 24 0 0 24 2 10 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 82
Est. 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Lat. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lit. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sln. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rom. 8 0 0 0 0 3 0 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 32
Bul. 0 0 0 33 0 27 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 126
Cro. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EU 331 235 9 85 51 49 5 831 128 109 77 54 1 7 64 16 18 46 1 0 0 9 21 0 33 5 1 2188
CROP YEAR 2014/15
DURUM WHEAT SUPPLY
EU durum wheat production in 2014 estimated at 7.7 Mt
PRODUCTION
Based on the trend yields, we estimate EU
durum wheat production in 2014 at 7.7 Mt,
down 0.3 Mt compared with the 2013 har-
vest. The reduction will mostly relate to Spain
(-0.2 Mt) and France (-0.1 Mt). We estimate
that the total area sowed in the EU was equal
to last year at 2.46 Mha. The area is estimated
down in Spain and Greece (-20 kha each), but
it stays stable in France and increases slightly in
Italy (+40 kha) compared with last year.
Production in Greece is expected at almost
the same level as last year: 820 kt (-10 kt com-
pared with 2013). Germination and plant
emergence took place in ideal conditions this
year in Greece, with good soil humidity.
We forecast that durum wheat yields in Spain
will be lower than in 2013. We currently es-
timate Spanish durum wheat production at
750 kt (-170 kt compared with 2013). Rains
in mid-December allowed a small improve-
ment in soil humidity. More rain is needed
so that underground water reserves can be
replenished.
Production in France is estimated at 1.75 Mt,
down by 70 kt compared with 2013. The
weather has so far been mild although some
areas have seen flooding. Nevertheless, with
the most of the durum wheat plants at the
tiller emergence phase, they should not suf-
fer too greatly as a result of excess water and
we do not think that yield potential has been
penalised.
Farmers in southern Italy finished sowing
their durum wheat at the end of December
and the crops are in good condition. We esti-
mate Italian production at 3.9 Mt, down 40 kt
compared with 2013.
IMPORTS FROM THIRD COUNTRIES
We estimate durum wheat imports in
2014/15 at 1.7 Mt, up 0.2 Mt compared with
2013/14.
There are two reasons for this growth in im-
ports compared with 2013/14:
Reduced durum wheat availabilities
in the EU due to a smaller harvest;
Large scale import carry-through
from Canada at the start of
2014/15 as a result of the delays to
shipments incurred in 2013/14.
The growth in imports is divided between the
following importing countries in the EU: +60
kt for Belgium, +20 kt for Germany, +30 kt
for Spain, +60 kt for Italy and +50 kt for the
Netherlands.
Table 3: intra-EU trade 2013/14 (kt)
5
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
origins destinations 2014/15
Ger. B/L Den. Spn. Fra. Gre. Irl. Ita. NL Por. U.K. Aust. Fin. Swe. Pol. Hun. Cze. Slk. Est. Lat. Lit. Sln. Cyp. Mal. Ro. Bul. Cro. EU
Ger. 17 3 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 28
B/L 140 0 0 34 0 0 14 33 0 0 2 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 228
Den. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Spn. 16 7 0 18 0 0 92 3 105 19 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 263
Fra. 94 100 2 93 10 3 243 27 22 46 0 0 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 0 0 666
Gre. 2 0 0 0 0 0 256 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 259
Irl. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Ita. 2 8 0 3 16 1 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 39
Neth. 36 33 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 72
Por. 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
U.K. 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Aust. 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 0 0 0 6 0 3 6 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 43
Fin. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Swed. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pol. 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11
Hun. 11 0 0 0 0 5 0 5 0 0 0 9 0 0 13 1 17 1 0 0 5 4 0 7 2 1 79
Cz.R. 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 11 0 0 3 0 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 29
Slk. 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 18 0 0 14 2 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 56
Est. 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
Lat. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lit. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sln. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
Cyp. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mal. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rom. 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 26
Bul. 0 0 0 30 0 19 0 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 0 98
Cro. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EU 325 165 9 131 70 39 4 668 79 127 74 50 2 8 46 15 13 34 1 0 0 7 17 0 24 3 1 1913
Table 4: intra-EU trade 2014/15 (kt)
DEMAND FOR DURUM WHEAT
Demand in the EU expected stable
DEMAND FOR HUMAN CONSUMP-
TION AND INDUSTRIAL USAGE
We currently estimate that demand for durum
wheat in the EU will be stable at 7.7 Mt. The
largest consumer country in the EU, Italy, will
see a reduction in internal demand due to the
uncertain economic outlook facing the coun-
try. Nevertheless, overall demand will still be
driven by exports: Italian pasta remains highly
sought after worldwide and therefore durum
wheat consumption in Italy will remain stable.
We estimate that demand in Spain will in-
crease slightly (+10 kt); indeed demand in
Spain had already began to grown in 2013/14,
according to our sources.
Demand in France and Germany is forecast
stable.
DURUM WHEAT USE IN ANIMAL
FEEDS
Durum wheat use in animal feeds is esti-
mated at 0.4 Mt, down 60 kt compared with
2013/14. We forecast that France and Spain
will both produce better quality harvests than
in 2013. Hence given the projected decline in
availability in both countries, we forecast that
human consumption will be favoured over
durum wheat use in animal feeds.
DURUM WHEAT TRADE
Intra-EU trade revised up again exports to third countries revised down
INTRA-EU TRADE
We estimate intra-EU trade in 2014/15 at 1.9
Mt, down 280 kt compared with 2013/14.
Given the expected rise in imports from third
countries, we think that the main EU import-
ing countries will need to import less durum
wheat from EU partners.
Hence we forecast that intra-EU import de-
mand will fall in Italy (-160 kt), Belgium (-70
kt) and the Netherlands (-50 kt).
In terms of the exporting countries, the lower
demand mainly impacts France (-230 kt com-
pared with 2013/14). We think that France
will be able to export more durum wheat to
third countries in 2014/15 because grain
quality is expected to be better than in 2013,
which was a very disappointing harvest in
terms of quality. Given the smaller expected
French durum wheat harvest (in quantity
terms) we forecast that exports to third coun-
tries will be increased which will be offset by
lower exports to the EU. In addition, France
exported a high volume of durum wheat to
EU countries in 2013/14, especially Italy,
6
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
prices delivered La Pallice $/t
Prix rendus La Pallice en $/t
prices delivered La Pallice $/t
prices delivered North Italy $/t
Prix rendus Nord Italie $/t
prices delivered North Italy $/t
2
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prices delivered North
Italy $/t
prices delivered La
Pallice $/t
kt 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15
Algeria 516 366 83 190
Morocco 289 3 0 0
Tunisia 191 441 204 210
Egypt 21 28 20 20
other Africa 156 120 127 121
Turkey 1 187 94 110
Switzerland 19 11 26 21
other Europe 8 6 8 5
others 0 7 6 21
Total 1201 1169 568 698
2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Carry-in stocks 6.7 5.9 6.3
Production 21.9 23.2 22.4
Imports 4.7 5.2 5.0
Consumption 20.1 20.3 20.4
Exports 6.6 7.3 6.4
Carry-out stocks 5.9 6.3 6.3
Stocks-to-use 29% 31% 31%
kt 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Op.stocks 1026 2204 2987 1996 1725 1343 2088
Imports 0 2 37 15 15 20 20
Production 5519 5400 3025 4172 4627 6504 5144
Use 991 966 916 798 950 1200 1200
Exports 3350 3653 3137 3660 4074 4579 4317
Cl. Stocks 2204 2987 1996 1725 1343 2088 1735
Stocks/use 51% 65% 49% 39% 27% 36% 31%
kt 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15
Op.stocks 217 716 986 996 686 656 507
Imports 2281 2968 2887 1374 2253 1675 2032
Production 594 506 471 482 482 680 600
Use 1895 2150 2200 1600 2100 1900 1950
Exports 481 1054 1148 566 665 604 665
Cl. Stocks 716 986 996 686 656 507 524
Stocks/use 30% 31% 30% 32% 24% 20% 20%
change in exports
change in import requirements
11/12 12/13 13/14 11/12 12/13 13/14
USA 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.1 EU28 1.5 1.5 1.7 0.2
Canada 4.1 4.6 4.3 -0.3 Algeria 1.5 1.8 1.6 -0.2
Mexico 0.5 1.2 0.5 -0.7 Morocco 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.0
EU28 1.2 0.6 0.7 0.1 Tunisia 0.5 0.7 0.5 -0.2
Australia 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.1 Others 2.3 2.8 2.0 -0.7
Kazakhstan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total 6.6 7.3 6.4 -0.8
Total 6.6 7.3 6.4 -0.8
Graphic 3: durum wheat prices in France and Italy
Table 5: EU durum wheat exports by
destination (kt)
Table 7: balance sheet for the main
importing and exporting countries
EU, USA, Canada, Australia,
Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Mexico
(Mt)
Source: Stratgie grains
Table 8: durum wheat balance sheet for Canada, July-June (kt)
Table 9: durum wheat balance sheet for USA, July-June (kt)
TABLE 6: changes in export volumes and import needs in the main
exporting/importing countries
Source: Stratgie grains
7
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2
0
0
8
/
0
9

2
0
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9
/
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0

2
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Mt
EU
Canada
USA
Graphic 4: changes in stocks held by the main exporting countries (Mt)
on account of the delay to shipments from
Canada (delay which should not occur again
in 2014/15).
WORLD DURUM WHEAT MARKET
Production
We estimate that durum wheat production in
the main importing and exporting countries
will be around 1 Mt less than in 2013.
Production in Canada is expected to fall by 1.4
Mt given that yields will probably be much less
exceptional than in 2013. The EU harvest is
also expected to be smaller (-0.3 Mt).
We nevertheless forecast that production will
increase in 2014 in the USA (+0.3 Mt due to
higher planted area) and North Africa (+0.3
Mt due to good conditions for planting).
World demand forecast stable
We are working on the basis that global de-
mand for durum wheat will be stable in
2014/15. A small decline in demand in the EU
(due to reduced usage in animal feeds) will be
offset by higher demand in North Africa.
World trade
Changes to world import needs
We forecast that the global import need for du-
rum wheat will be 0.7 Mt less than in 2013/14.
This is because we now envisage that Iran will
not need import such a massive volume from
Mexico as it did in 2013/14 (Iran bought 0,3
Mt of durum wheat in 2013/14). If these quan-
tities are effectively delivered and a new trade
route for durum to Iran is therefore created we
will revise this hypothesis.
Although EU import demand is expected up
by 0.2 Mt, this will be offset by a 0.4 Mt decline
in import demand in North Africa. Algeria
and Tunisia will effectively have better harvests
that in 2013 whilst Moroccan imports are ex-
pected flat.
Changes to world export levels
In terms of the main exporting countries, we
project a major reduction in Mexican exports
(-0.7 Mt) due to falling import demand in Iran.
Canadian exports are also forecast to decline
slightly (-0.3 Mt) whilst exports from the USA
and EU should increase a little (+0.1 Mt each).
Crop year 2013/14 should be disappointing
in terms of EU exports on the world market.
Durum wheat grain quality was poor in the
EU and did not meet the specifications of
importers in the North African countries. We
think that the situation should improve in
2014/15 and forecast a small increase for EU
exports. Nevertheless, given that availabilities
in the EU will be smaller, the growth in exports
will be moderate.
World stocks
Despite the fall in world durum wheat produc-
tion, we forecast that stocks will remain flat in
2014/14 in the main importing and exporting
countries.
In Canada, carry-in stock at the start of
2014/15 will be extremely high, which should
allow Canada to export as much durum wheat
as it did in 2013/14, despite a much smaller
harvest. The expected reduction in world de-
mand we currently forecast should also limit
the potential for a decline in stocks in the main
exporting countries.
ANALYSIS OF ENDING STOCKS AND CONCLUSION
Bearish impact of high Canadian stocks should start to influence the market
from spring 2014 world market outlook for 2014/15 is rather heavy
Since our December report, projected
2013/14 ending stock in the EU has not
changed greatly; it is still estimated at 1.04 Mt
for end-June 2014. We still envisage that sup-
ply and demand will balance in the main EU
countries. Compared with the estimates pub-
lished in our December report, the projected
surplus in France has decreased (due to higher
exports to other EU countries) and the Italian
deficit has disappeared (lower exports to third
countries and higher imports from EU coun-
tries to offset lower projected imports from the
world market).
Durum wheat prices in the EU have been
sustained through the last 2 months by the ac-
cumulating delays to shipments from Canada.
Nevertheless, these delays should start to ease
come the spring when grain transportation in
North America will become much easier. And
furthermore, Mexico will return to the world
market with a new harvest in May. Hence du-
rum wheat prices, which have thus far resisted
downward pressure from the soft wheat mar-
ket, could start to decline from around March.
We forecast that Canadian stock will be very
high at end-June 2014, and therefore Canadian
durum wheat could be very aggressively priced
at the start of 2014/15. The heavy situation on
the world market should therefore start to im-
pact EU prices from the spring. If bad weather
threatens the EU durum wheat harvest, prices
could be temporarily sustained, but Canadian
stocks will diminish the fluctuations steming
from the spring 2014 weather market.
8
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
J
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Ger. 60 46 46 331 66 503 30 0 420 0 4 454 49 0 50
Bel/L 19 0 235 201 455 234 19 115 70 0 438 16 0 20
Den. 0 0 9 0 10 0 0 7 0 0 8 2 0 0
Spn. 118 904 85 15 1122 272 66 400 150 74 961 161 10 150
Fra. 255 1754 1714 51 9 2068 892 315 620 0 82 1910 158 40 120
Gre. 60 830 49 0 939 216 79 410 50 78 834 105 10 100
Irl. -0 0 5 0 5 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0
Ita. 324 3927 831 1141 6222 18 83 5200 110 316 5726 496 0 500
Neth. 1 0 128 9 138 63 2 35 35 0 135 3 0 0
Por. 22 7 109 15 153 5 133 8 5 151 1 0 0
U.K. 0 0 77 1 78 1 76 0 0 77 2 0 0
Aust. 10 63 62 54 0 128 55 0 60 1 2 118 10 0 10
Fin. -0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 2
Swed. 4 0 7 1 12 0 0 10 0 0 10 2 0 0
Pol. -0 0 64 5 69 8 59 0 0 67 2 0 0
Hun. 4 105 16 0 125 92 0 30 0 2 124 1 0 0
Cz.R. 1 121 18 0 140 56 84 0 0 140 -0 0 0
Slk. -0 40 46 0 86 82 3 0 0 85 0 0 0
Est. 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 -0 0 0
Lat. 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
Lit. 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sln. 0 0 9 0 9 1 8 0 0 9 0 0 0
Cyp. 3 0 21 0 25 0 24 0 0 24 1 0 0
Mal. 1 0 0 4 5 0 2 0 0 2 3 0 0
Rou. 14 8 33 0 56 32 10 0 0 42 14 10 0
Bul. 20 127 5 0 152 126 4 15 0 0 145 7 0 10
Cro. 0 4 0 0 4 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 0
EU 27 918 7932 2187 1466 12502 2187 568 7723 424 563 11465 1038 70 962
EU 28 918 7936 2187 1466 12507 2187 568 7727 424 563 11469 1038 70 962
Table 10: EU28 durum wheat balance sheet July-June 2013/14 (kt)
9
I S S U E # 1 7 - 2 7 J A N U A R Y 2 0 1 4
STRATGIE GRAINS - DURUM REPORT
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Ger. 49 45 45 325 86 505 28 420 0 4 452 53 0 50
Bel/L 16 0 165 260 441 228 10 115 70 0 423 19 0 20
Den. 2 0 9 0 11 1 8 0 0 9 2 0 0
Spn. 161 750 131 40 1082 263 95 410 90 74 932 150 0 150
Fra. 158 1745 1705 70 2 1975 666 422 620 0 86 1794 181 60 120
Gre. 105 820 39 0 964 259 70 410 50 78 867 97 0 100
Irl. 3 0 4 0 7 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 0
Ita. 496 3891 668 1200 6256 39 96 5200 110 316 5761 495 0 500
Neth. 3 0 79 62 144 72 1 35 35 0 143 1 0 0
Por. 1 7 127 17 153 6 133 8 5 152 1 0 0
U.K. 2 0 74 7 83 1 78 0 0 79 4 0 0
Aust. 10 55 54 50 0 115 43 60 1 2 106 9 0 10
Fin. 1 0 2 1 3 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 2
Swed. 2 0 8 1 11 0 10 0 0 10 1 0 0
Pol. 2 0 46 6 54 11 40 0 0 51 3 0 0
Hun. -0 106 15 0 121 79 36 0 2 117 4 0 0
Cz.R. -0 114 13 0 127 29 94 0 0 123 5 0 0
Slk. 0 28 34 0 63 56 3 0 0 59 4 0 0
Est. -0 0 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
Lat. 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 -0 0 0
Lit. 0 0 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Sln. 0 0 7 6 13 4 8 0 0 12 1 0 0
Cyp. 1 0 17 0 17 0 17 0 0 17 0 0 0
Mal. 3 0 0 4 7 0 6 0 0 6 1 0 0
Rou. 14 8 24 0 46 26 15 0 0 41 5 10 0
Bul. 7 125 3 0 134 98 4 21 0 0 123 11 0 10
Cro. 0 4 1 0 5 0 4 0 0 4 1 0 0
EU 27 1036 7696 1913 1697 12342 1913 698 7741 364 567 11282 1061 70 962
EU 28 1036 7701 1913 1697 12347 1913 698 7745 364 567 11286 1061 70 962
Table 11: EU28 durum wheat balance sheet July-June 2014/15 (kt)
Stratgie grains is available in English and
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