Technical

Analysis
Review
20-06-2014
Review_20/06/14 - ( Rating - 11/15 ) Positive - High Risk - Rupee is Appriciating / Nifty on verge of Breaking out into Bull Market / AD is +ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is
+ve / Bonds is +Ve (--) Big Picture is Positve.
| 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve |
Nifty - ( 3/4 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631 (22-02-2012) is Uptrend &
there was retracement upto 4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012
Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to 6110 (29-01-2013) There was
correction from 6110 (29-01-2013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013)
After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-05-2013) There was correction
in Uptrend (as Higher Low is formed at 5570 on 25-06-2013 after Neckline of 5950 of
Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to
6229)
Lower High Lower Low Trend (Down Trend from 6229 (20-05-2013) to 5565 (24-06-
2013). Retest & Double Top Was From 5565 (24-06-2013) & Ended at 6077.79 ( 23-07-
2013 ). Another Lower High is Created at 5742.29 (14-08-2013)
Indian Rupee - ( 3/4 ) Rupee Breakout from Ascending triangle Pattern
(Consolidation Range was from 58.932 to 61.230 on 15-08-2013) Upto 67.59 (27-08-
2013) & $ is in a Bull Maket v/s Rupee Depreciation.Rupee had Retracement from Top
to 61.44 on 03-10-2013. Rupee is consolidating into a Range at Demand Level from
Weekly Timeframe.A Breakout from Range is awaited
Supply Zone at 1) 69.228 (68.860) 68.578 2) 64.074 (63.669) 63.206
Demand Zone are at 1) 61.154 (60.720) 60.373 & 2) 59.368 (59.044) 58.688
It is notable that the entire activity of previous 4 Months is contained into the range of
August Huge Candle & it is unable to takeout the lows of that August candle.On Daily
TF the price is converging into an Symetrical Triangle.It is Notable that $ Index has
Given a Breakout from Weekly Demand Zone & $ is expected to Raise against all
Currencies (Trouble for Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has
been considered to be the Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash).
Dimensions
Demand Levels are 1) 7320 7245 7130 7050 7000 6860 6680 6630 6520 6480 -
6354 (6228.45) 6187.80 2) 6133 (6100) 6102 3) 5807 (5791) 5780 4) 5755.28 to
5714.63 5) 5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 6) 5276.86 - 5211.20 7) 5128.09 (5079.67)
5032.70 8) 4842.27 4770.73
Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot Highs of 6154 - 6134 is broken on
the Up side & retesting the Trendline break from above,Measured up move of Break
of Ascending Triangle is Very high at 7782 (38.2%) (Very Difficult - Down Side Break is
very Low 3345 (50%) & 2864 (61.8%))
Volume Volumes are in increasing Trend.In Jun series Nifty future shed 2.47 lakh
position in Open Interest and this accounts to -1.77 % of Total Open Interest in Jun
series.The Nifty Jun series is trading at 13.9 Rs premium to Underlying . In derivative
cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 1.53 lakh position in open
interest and this accounts to 0.91 % of Total Open Interest in all series and
cumulatively trading in average premium of 48.63 Rs to Underlying.
Open Intrest (OI) Record updated for-.Jun/23/2014-NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(7525.35)
is currently in SLIGHTLY BULL trend.The open interest is also increasing with trend and
discount of share is also increasing indicating down move. At current price strike the
activity is tilted to put side but addition of call is slightly increasing at 7500 level
Yesterday Nifty Put option has added 633.54 lakh position and Nifty call option has
added 785.28 lakh position in open interest on cumulative basis
NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 0.81 & (Money Wise) - 0.13
Previous Highs of 5742.29 (14-08-2013), 6077.79 (23-07-2013) 6142.25 (19-09-2013)
& 6189.35 (18-10-2013) is broken on Upside & Price is at Life time High of 6353 (01-11-
2013) & Parabolic Upmove has been Sucessfully Sustained after creating a Higher Low
at 5701.54 (01-10-2013) & After Inverse H&S Breakout above 6116 Price closed below
6076 (28-10-2013) Trend reversal can occur if Lower High is confirmed (Already Put )
by Price
Supply Levels is -
Breadth Charts - ( 2/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve)
SMA Trin is Between 1.2 & 1.3 indicated reduced Strength in Uptrend & space for
more stocks to Decline even tho Nifty is Rising,The series of Higher Lows in SMA10 of
TRIN can be Restored.
P & F Chart High Pole Warning Pattern occurred on 12-06-2014. 1) Rare Double top
& Inverse H&S Neckline Breakout @ 6200 --- 2) New Support 7500 & Resistance 7700
Advance Decline Line (1/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks
advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even
reverse.
AD Line is Now Rising with increase in Nifty, indicates Increased strength in Up trend &
Line is still Low on the Curve hence it is Positive for Uptrend.
Midcaps are Raising with inclining Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels
) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Little Momentum.
Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (0/1) To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline
Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty
TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0
(More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that
are Declining
Sentiments Sentiments are now Caustious as current Breakout into Life time High
has retraced, Due to Sharp retracement in Upmove Traders are forced to cut their
Long Position,A Break on Upside from Weekly Inverse H&S & Monthly Ascending
Triangle Indicates Supreme Power for Bulls.Risk Reward would be favourable on Bear
Side upto Retest. Earnings expectations are mostly -ve
TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 7235.64 ) Nifty could now build Short Position
due to Sharp Pullback Rally.. Nifty's 56 Day Cycle
(30-05-2014 was a Down Day But close was in Top Third Bullish) (Next Date 25-07-
2014 Expect Uptrend )--> Mid month
Reversal ( 13-06-2014 was a Big Down Day )(Next Date 17-07-2014) Quaterlies
Settlement is on 3rd Friday (21-03-2014 was Narrow Range Bearish Day) (Next Date
21-06-2014)
3 Y 10 Y 30 Y
All Bonds Compleing Pullback in Uptrend. Correct Relation of 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI is achived (Caution Money is Moving to Short term Bond Market from Share
Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) .. . Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed by Govt)
& with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than
corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets.
NSE Net Monthly High & Low (1/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs
versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs
indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive
There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" has been broken on upside
for a 2nd Time indicating Strength in Up Trend.The "Peaks of stocks Hitting 52 Week
High" Should increase for strong Up Trend
India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied
volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor
& used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with
Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will
move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index
VIX has moved above 20 indicating Complacancy. Fear/ Volitality has increased with
Up Trend indicating Possible pullback...Volume is also High....
Indian Bonds (3/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period
= Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
Group 1 - Oil + Gas -> 33% Weight Group 2 - Natural Gas + Metal + Corn + Soya -> 42% Weight Group 3 - Others -> 25% Weight
Commodities (Negative Correlation) $CRB Consolidating in Uptrend, Commodities
Crude Has Broken Down, Post Pullback, Gold has Pullback as $ Moved Down ... (
Equity Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic Growth (& Reduced
Commodity Demand) & Geo Political Tensions are reducing,Now Commodities are to
Resume uptrend if $ continues to be weak & Decline
Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is declining Currency that has
Reached Demand Zone & Hence Some Currencies are Reaching Supply Zone. Japan
Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to Rebuild (Distribution) after Fed's
Stance of Tapering in QE & Budget Deal, Hints at Liquidity Reversal is on Hold (Market
is Build Gains on Good News) ..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off Mode ..
Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency (Developed & Other
Emerging Mkt Currencies ) are depreciating against $ to take advantage of investment
in safe Govt Secured Bond
http://
in.advf
n.com
/world
The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise ( 10/10 ) Extremely Positive
INDEX HDFC Weekly - Up Trend Daily - Sideways Trend Cross Golden
FINANCE ICICIBANK Weekly - Up Trend Daily - Up Trend Cross Golden
ENERGY RELIANCE Weekly - Sideways Trend Daily - Sideways Trend Cross Golden
IT INFY Weekly - Up Trend Daily - Down Trend Cross Death
FMCG ITC Weekly - Sideways Trend Daily - Sideways Trend Cross Golden
AUTO TATAMOTORS Weekly - Up Trend Daily - UpTrend Cross Golden
PHARMACEUTICALS SUNPHARMA Weekly - Sideways Trend Daily - Sideways Trend Cross Golden
CAPITAL GOODS L&T Weekly - Up Trend Daily - Up Trend Cross Golden
METALS TATASTEEL Weekly - Sideways Trend Daily - Up Trend Cross Golden
CEMENT ULTRACEMCO Weekly - Up Trend Daily - Up Trend Cross Golden
World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Chinese Recover is Slow with raised
concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan & US Markets has Fresh Breakout (Markets
are Distributing Stocks on Good News Markets are now Ferouscliously Selling.Europe
CAG are Near Resistance DAX & FTSE have given Fresh Break out (Global Markets are
Now breaking out of Resistance. Syncronisation in Breakouts is seen after Creating
consolidation Patterns.But Global Liquidity is Drying,interest Rates are increasing ..All
Equity Markets except EMs are on Risk ON Mode
NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any
investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.