China International

Aviation Outlook
Derek Sadubin
COO
CAPA Centre for Aviation
ds@centreforaviation.com
1. Chlna markeL ouLlook
2. Chlna markeL evoluuon
3. Where are we now?
4. CuLlook for leadlng Chlnese alrporLs
Cvervlew
- lncreaslng propenslLy Lo Lravel - rlslng lncomes, Cu
- CrowLh aL hubs - PS8 wlll push Chlnese alrllne Lo grow lnLernauonally and provlde feed opporLunlues for
forelgn carrlers aL hubs
- CrowLh aL secondary polnLs:
- LCC revoluuon ln norLh Asla - especlally !apan, Pk wlll fuel rapld growLh aL non-congesLed Chlnese
gaLeways.
- Second uer Chlnese alrllnes wlll expand lnLernauonally (malnly Asla aclc)
- Cpenlng of secondary alrporLs ln Chlna ls blg news for forelgn and local carrlers: eg Chongqlng,
Chengdu
- Chlna's wesLern gaLeways are poLenually greaL hubs for 8usslan/ClS Lramc. Chlna can oer so many
hubs: wesL (for 8ussla/ClS), norLheasL (!apan, korea), souLheasL (SL Asla, AusLralla).
- Mlddle LasL carrlers wlll full slxLh freedom role Lo Afrlca for resources boom and resL of world. Afrlcan
carrlers also gemng serlous abouL Chlna
- Luropean ma[ors wlll cherry plck WesLern Chlnese clues wlLh new generauon alrcra
= PoL compeuuon for new/explrlng duLy free/reLall concesslons ln Chlna!
arL #1: CuLlook/key polnLs
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta Atlanta
Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago Chicago London Beijing Beijing
LAX London London London London London London London Beijing Chicago London
London
LHR Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo Chicago London Chicago
Tokyo LAX LAX LAX LAX LAX LAX Paris Tokyo Tokyo Tokyo
DFW DFW DFW DFW DFW DFW Paris LAX Paris LAX LAX
Frankfurt Frankfurt Frankfurt Paris Paris Paris DFW DFW LAX Paris Paris
Paris Paris Paris Frankfurt Frankfurt Frankfurt Frankfurt Beijing DFW DFW DFW
AMS AMS AMS AMS AMS Beijing Beijing Frankfurt Frankfurt Frankfurt Frankfurt
Denver Denver Denver Denver Las Vegas Denver Madrid Denver Denver Denver
Hong
Kong
Ranking of the Top 10 airports worldwide
Source: CAPA Centre for Aviation & ACI
Beijing expected to overtake Atlanta as worlds busiest airport
later this year!
Source: CenLre for Asla aclc Avlauon and CAAC
Chinas leading airports: 2011 pax (size of bubble) and growth
arL #3: Where are we now?
Source: CAA - CenLre for Avlauon, CAAC, alrllne reporLs, Chlna Clvll Avlauon Cnllne CAAC-news,
Carnoc, Chengdu.cn & Chlna Clvll Avlauon Cnllne
SelecL Chlnese carrlers' passenger numbers (000s): 2011
China intl vs domestic seats (%)
Source: Innovata & CAPA Centre for Aviation,
for week commencing 6 May
Source: CAPA Centre for Aviation Source: CAPA Centre for Aviation
Chinas total widebody fleet in service Chinas total widebody fleet on order
But! China is predominantly
a domestic market!
- Just 190 widebodies in service in
entire Chinese fleet. CX/KA have
almost 150 between them!
- Just 145 widebodies in order.
Emirates alone has over 230 on order!
Airline Seats Airline Seats
1 Ryanair 1,712,340 26 China Airlines 277,565
2 Lufthansa 1,409,038 27 Aeroflot 268,036
3 easyJet 1,085,244 28 Etihad Airways 264,902
4 Emirates 936,814 29 China Eastern 246,704
5 British Airways 803,405 30 Norwegian Air Shuttle 241,046
6 Air France 744,162 31 Air China 233,690
7 American Airlines 641,387 32 Alitalia 227,502
8 Delta Air Lines 583,073 33 AirAsia 226,440
9 KLM Royal Dutch Airlines 581,614 34 TAP Portugal 223,460
10 Turkish Airlines 567,328 35 Thomson 223,426
11 United Airlines 549,733 36 COPA 220,734
12 airberlin 523,884 37 US Airways 220,286
13 Cathay Pacific 521,733 38 Malaysia Airlines 217,246
14 Singapore Airlines 457,180 39 Dragonair 209,458
15 Qatar Airways 456,363 40 Saudi Arabian Airlines 208,106
16 Korean Air 423,320 41 Vueling Airlines 208,062
17 Air Canada 418,975 42 Japan Airlines 198,737
18 SWISS 376,893 43 EgyptAir 195,488
19 Thai Airways 352,916 44 China Southern 184,252
20 SAS 304,947 45 All Nippon Airways 184,061
21 Austrian Airlines 296,279 46 Brussels Airlines 181,527
22 Aer Lingus 293,360 47 Lan Airlines 177,800
23 Iberia 282,992 48 Finnair 173,839
24 Asiana Airlines 280,304 49 Gulf Air 158,402
25 Wizz Air 279,720 50 Qantas Airways 154,796
Worlds top 50 airlines by seats per week*
There are no Chinese carriers in global Top 10 Intl carriers
- Just one mainland carrier in Top 30!
Source: CAPA Centre for Aviation & Innovata *week commencing 6 May 2012
Source: CAA - CenLre for Avlauon and CAC lAC1S. lncludes Pk, Macau and 1alwan seaLs
Top 10 international aviation markets (seats): 2011 and growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
2011
2011 Growth
China is an international travel minnow!
Source: CAA - CenLre for Avlauon and CAC lAC1S. lncludes Pk, Macau and 1alwan seaLs
32.5
39.6
39.3
52.2
60.4
67.0
76.6
77.9
72.9
82.2
92.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
International capacity seats (m) to/from China (seats): 2001 to 2011
But growing strongly 100 million seats this year
Representative sample week in June of each year Source: CAPA - Centre for Aviation and Innovata
Middle East carriers growing rapidly to China
Fastest growing carriers to China: 2006 to 2011 (seats per week)
ropenslLy for Alrllne 1ravel vs Cu er CaplLa
The growth drivers: #1 rising incomes
Source: CAA - CenLre for Avlauon & CAAC
CAAC passenger numbers and growLh forecasL: 2003 Lo 2030l
The growth drivers: #1 rising incomes
450 million passengers still expected by 2015, despite the
impact of high-speed rail
The growth drivers: #2 High Speed Rail (HSR)
High Speed Rail (HSR) retail free zone!
Shanghai HSR terminal
The growth drivers: #3 Liberalisation, New Entry
and new airline business models (LCCs/Hybrids)
This will fuel explosive short-haul international growth to
Chinas airports in coming years
> LCCs in North Asia event, Macau 4-6 September 2012
Rank Airport
Total
Seats
1 PVG Shanghai Pudong Airport 558,445
2 PEK Beijing Capital International Airport 481,375
3 CAN Guangzhou Baiyun Airport 194,192
4 HGH Hangzhou Airport 60,916
5 SHA Shanghai Hongqiao Airport 60,070
6 XMN Xiamen Airport 59,902
7 TAO Qingdao Airport 49,778
8 CTU Chengdu Airport 39,050
9 KMG Kunming Airport 36,025
10 DLC Dalian Airport 35,476
11 SZX Shenzhen Airport 29,288
12 NKG Nanjing Airport 27,913
13 SHE Shenyang Airport 24,834
14 FOC Fuzhou Airport 24,430
15 CKG Chongqing Airport 21,728
16 TSN Tianjin Airport 20,104
17 CSX Changsha Airport 18,038
18 NGB Ningbo Airport 17,190
19 URC Urumqi Airport 14,078
20 XIY Xian Airport 13,357
Chlna's 1op 20 lnLernauonal AlrporLs, ranked by SeaLs per week*
Source: CAA - CenLre for Avlauon & lnnovaLa *30-Apr-2012 Lo 06-May-2012,
Part #4 Outlook for Chinas leading intl airports
Annual pax 2009-2011: uom vs lnL'l (mlll)
Intl is 48% of the
total at Pudong
15.3
19.5
20.0
16.6
21.1
21.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2009 2010 2011
Domestic
International
#1 Shanghal udong AlrporL
Source: CAA - CenLre for Avlauon & alrporL reporLs
#1 Shanghal udong AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Shanghai Pudong and Beijing?
- Asia Pacific, Middle East/Africa more gateways and frequencies. Strong growth
- Europe/Nth America - Slower growth, some wild-card new destinations, more
frequencies on established routes
Restrictions? Favourable slot timings, congestion and government restrictions
Total non-stop destinations 139
Domestic 72
Latin America 1
Asia Pacific 44
Europe 10
Middle East 3
North America 9
Annual pax 2009-2011: uom vs lnL'l (mlll)
Source: CAA - CenLre for Avlauon & alrporL reporLs
14.1
17.2 17.6
51.3
56.7
61.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2009 2010 2011
Domestic
International
Intl is 22% of the
total at Beijing
#2 8el[lng CaplLal AlrporL
#2 8el[lng CaplLal AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Total non-stop destinations 192
Domestic 110
Africa 5
Asia Pacific 34
Europe 28
Middle East 5
North America 10
#3 Cuangzhou 8alyun AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Guangzhou?
- Canton Route better connectivity between Australia/Asia and existing European ports
- Nth America US carrier may flirt with Guangzhou again in next 24 months
- Asia Pacific likely good increases in frequencies and new destinations
Total non-stop destinations 124
Domestic 83
Africa 3
Asia Pacific 31
Europe 5
Middle East 3
North America 2
#4 Pangzhou AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012: n8: lrankfurL servlce ls noL currenLly operaung
Where next for Hangzhou?
- Middle East Gulf link likely within 12 months
- Nth America US or Chinese carrier may look at Hangzhou in next 24 months
- Europe possible wild-card new route, but likely frequency increases to existing ports
- Asia Pacific likely increases in frequencies and new destinations driven by LCCs
Total non-stop destinations 63
Domestic 45
Africa 1
Asia Pacific 17
Europe 1
Middle East 0
North America 0
#3 Shanghal Pongqlao AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Shanghai Hongqiao?
- Short-haul international story likely increases in frequencies and new destinations
driven by full service airlines. Likely continued restricted entry to LCCs
Total non-stop destinations 66
Domestic 62
Latin America/Africa 0
Asia Pacific 4
Europe 0
Middle East 0
North America 0
#6 xlamen AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Xiamen?
- Asia Pacific Good increases in frequencies and destinations driven by LCCs
- Middle East Likely to see new Gulf linkage before more destinations in Europe
Total non-stop destinations 63
Domestic 49
Latin America/Africa 0
Asia Pacific 13
Europe 1
Middle East 0
North America 0
#7 Clngdao AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Qingdao?
- Asia Pacific Good increases in frequencies and destinations driven by LCCs
- Middle East Likely new linkage before more destinations in Europe
Total non-stop destinations 48
Domestic 38
Latin America/Africa 0
Asia Pacific 9
Europe 1
Middle East 0
North America 0
#8 Chengdu AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Chengdu?
- Asia Pacific Increases in frequencies and destinations driven by LCCs. Possible
link to Australia in next 12 months
- Middle East Likely new linkage/frequencies before more destinations in Europe
Total non-stop destinations 97
Domestic 78
Latin America/Africa 0
Asia Pacific 17
Europe 1
Middle East 1
North America 0
#9 kunmlng AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Kunming?
- Asia Pacific Good increases in frequencies and destinations driven by LCCs. India
- Middle East/Europe Likely new linkage to Europe and/or Middle East
Total non-stop destinations 83
Domestic 64
Latin America/Africa 0
Asia Pacific 18
Europe 0
Middle East 1
North America 0
#10 uallan AlrporL - 8ouLe Map
Source: lnnovaLa aL 06-May-2012
Where next for Dalian?
- Mainly a short-haul international story likely increases in frequencies and new
destinations driven by LCCs, including low-cost long-haul.
Total non-stop destinations 56
Domestic 44
Latin America/Africa 0
Asia Pacific 12
Europe 0
Middle East 0
North America 0
- lncreaslng propenslLy Lo Lravel - rlslng lncomes, Cu
- CrowLh aL hubs - PS8 wlll push Chlnese alrllne Lo grow lnLernauonally and provlde
feed opporLunlues for forelgn carrlers aL hubs
- CrowLh aL secondary polnLs:
- LCC revoluuon ln norLh Asla - especlally !apan, Pk wlll fuel rapld growLh aL non-
congesLed Chlnese gaLeways
- Second uer Chlnese alrllnes wlll expand lnLernauonally (malnly Asla aclc)
- Cpenlng of secondary alrporLs ln Chlna ls blg news for forelgn and local carrlers:
eg Chongqlng, Chengdu
- Chlna's wesLern gaLeways are poLenually greaL hubs for 8usslan/ClS Lramc.
Chlna can oer so many hubs: wesL (for 8ussla/ClS), norLheasL (!apan, korea),
souLheasL (SL Asla, AusLralla)
- Mlddle LasL carrlers wlll full slxLh freedom role Lo Afrlca for resources boom and
resL of world. Afrlcan carrlers also gemng serlous abouL Chlna
- Luropean ma[ors wlll cherry plck WesLern Chlnese clues wlLh new generauon alrcra
= PoL compeuuon for new/explrlng duLy free/reLall concesslons ln Chlna!
Concluslon: CuLlook/key polnLs
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