Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
E N D O W M E N T F O R I N T E R N AT I O N A L P E A C E
POLICY
BRIEF
83
November 2009
More than 200 million people reside in a countries, as well as a major instrument in the
country that is not their birthplace. This fight against poverty.
“diaspora nation” of migrants outranks all But migrants are also especially vulnerable
but four of the world’s countries in popu- to the financial crisis because—relative to
lation. These migrants make an immense native-born workers in their host countries—
economic contribution both to their host they are disproportionately young, unskilled,
country and to their home country, primar- and employed in the worst-hit sectors, such
ily through transfers of money they earn back as construction and manufacturing. Illegal
to their home country, which are known as migrants, who make up a significant minority
“remittances.” About 82 percent of migrants of the overall migrant population in many
originate in developing countries, and their countries, have little legal recourse and, at best,
remittances, which amounted to an esti- only precarious access to social safety nets. But
mated $305 billion in 2008, represent an even legal migrants are often subjected to dis-
essential source of foreign exchange for these crimination and arbitrary treatment, and the
2 POLICY BRIEF
migrant workers are adequate substitutes for Migrants’ willingness to accept even lower
native workers, and that native workers want wages during a recession—as limited support
to do the same jobs. Both logic and empirical networks and exclusion from unemployment
research suggest that this fear is exaggerated. benefits leave them with no recourse in the
Though the average low-skilled American face of potential unemployment—might fur-
worker has a high school diploma and speaks ther depress wages for native-born workers.
English, the average low-skilled Mexican But there are also reasons to expect that
migrant has six years of education and does migrants compete less with native-born work-
not speak English. The two types of workers
are clearly not exact substitutes. (Refer to box.) Governments must recognize that migrants are an
economic asset rather than a liability and thus shape
Migration Responds
to Labor Demand
their reaction to the global financial crisis, including
Even given the inconclusive findings explained migration and social policies, accordingly.
above, it is still reasonable to ask: Does the
competition for jobs between migrants and ers during recessions. When deciding whether
native-born workers intensify during reces- or not to migrate, individuals take economic
sions? Though there has been very little conditions into account. As a result, the
research on this issue, one might expect com- number of new migrants entering a coun-
petition to intensify as native workers become try increases during economic booms and
more willing to take lower-paying jobs. decreases during busts, thereby minimizing
In the end, the extent of job competition between native-born and migrant workers is an
empirical question. Because of its importance, it has attracted much attention from labor
economists. Cross-sectional studies indicate that migrants have had a minimal impact on native
workers’ employment and wages. However, these studies may be susceptible to methodologi-
cal pitfalls because migrants may be attracted to regions or sectors where wages are high, thus
blurring any wage-depressing impact of migrants in the data. Of course, insofar as migrants
are disproportionately attracted to regions and industries where wages are high, they may
have a countercyclical effect on labor markets (more on this below).
Studies employing techniques that can correct for the reverse effect of wages on migration
choices—so-called panel studies—may be better suited to discern the impact of migration;
however, conclusions from such studies generate contradictory results. Some studies do find
significant effects of migration on native-born workers’ wages and employment. Immigration
into the United States throughout the 1980s decreased the real wages of high school dropouts
by 3.6 percent. In Europe, where wages are relatively inflexible, increased immigration has
been associated with rising unemployment among native-born workers, particularly unskilled
ones. However, immigration has had little impact on native workers’ wages and employment
in the United Kingdom, including unskilled ones. Some studies even show that immigration
reduces native workers’ unemployment in the long run.
What can we conclude? The evidence showing that migrants reduce the wages and employ-
ment of native-born workers is at best mixed and inconclusive; the vast majority of studies find
that the effects are small either way.
4 POLICY BRIEF
to return once recovery takes hold. Migrants punitive measures against migrants, not only
are often more willing to wait out unemploy- on moral grounds but also because such mea-
ment or low wages in their host country than sures constitute unsound economic and social
to return home (where times are perhaps just policy. Thus, policy makers should consider
as tough) and risk being denied reentry when the crucial economic contribution of migrants,
the recession fades and their jobs return. as well as the need to alleviate their height-
Increasingly tighter immigration restric-
tions, driven by calls from host-country Enacting new immigration restrictions may be
native-born workers who fear that migrants superfluous or even counterproductive, because
are occupying already-scarce jobs, exacerbate immigration can be expected to slow on its own in
migrants’ unwillingness to return home dur-
response to dampened labor demand.
ing the downturn. This year, South Korea,
Malaysia, and Thailand have all put some
form of moratorium on incoming foreign ened vulnerability to the recession, and step
workers. Australia, Kazakhstan, and Russia up efforts to better explain and communicate
have reduced their quotas for new entrants. migrants’ contribution. To complement these
And the United Kingdom has increased the increased efforts, grassroots aid organizations
academic and financial requirements for and religious institutions can and do play an
migrants attempting to enter the country as important role in supporting migrants. And
skilled workers. the role of the mass media in shaping percep-
Perhaps the most salient example of bur- tions of migrants is especially critical. More-
geoning anti-immigration policies came in the over, policy makers should ensure that at least
spring of 2009, when Italy’s Parliament voted the minimum social safety net—shelter, food
to criminalize illegal immigration, opening aid, and emergency health care—is available
the door to heavy fines and, under some cir- to migrants who lose their jobs.
cumstances, prison sentences for the estimated Policies that exclude immigrants from social
650,000 migrants who reside and work in the safety nets, such as the 1996 U.S. welfare law
country without authorization. These people that excludes recently arrived legal immigrants
include nurses, babysitters, retirement home from major federal public benefit programs,
employees, farmhands, and manual workers in exacerbate the social tensions that result
manufacturing and construction. Soccer fans from large-scale migrant unemployment.
need not fret, however; Italy’s many star play- The increase in both pro-immigration and
ers from Africa, Latin America, and Eastern anti-immigration demonstrations since the
Europe will not be affected, because work per- outbreak of the current global financial crisis
mits can quickly be arranged for them. points to this dangerous trend. For example,
in Madrid, there have been a number of pro-
Policy Implications tests against increased police raids on illegal
The situation described above has a number immigrants. Other demonstrations have been
of policy implications. These include both more violent; both pro-immigration and anti-
policies to mitigate the impact of the current immigration groups staged counterrallies in
global financial crisis and those concerned Athens, hurling bricks and gasoline bombs at
with longer-term migration management. each other. In the port city of Calais, France,
riot police used tear gas to control 2,000 pro-
Policies to Mitigate the testers who gathered to advocate for illegal
Impact of the Current Crisis migrants to be allowed into Britain.
Policy makers in host countries have reason to Moreover, enacting new immigration
reject the political pressures calling for taking restrictions may be superfluous or even
6 POLICY BRIEF
POLICY
BRIEF
83