January 31, 1994

Hungary Ready to Re-open Belgrade Tie?

Sources in Budapest indicated in late January 1994 that Hungary was preparing to re-establish
diplomatic and trade ties with ugosla!ia" thereby brea#ing the $nited %ations-sponsored
isolation o& the ugosla! state' The mo!e &lies in the &ace o& apparent continued media hostility
toward ugosla!ia in most (estern states" but re&lects an underlying strategic reality' That
reality is that )roatia" which is strategically lin#ed with *ermany and Hungary" has +made its
peace+ with ugosla!ia" which has made it clear that it recogni,es and accepts )roatia-s
secession &rom the &ormer Socialist .ederal Republic o& ugosla!ia /S.R0' That secession
precipitated the brea#-up o& the S.R and led to the creation o& the rump .ederal Republic o&
ugosla!ia'
The 1uiet rapprochement, which will probably include an e!entual e2change o& land so that
borders re&lect the realities o& )roatian and Serbian populations on the ground" e&&ecti!ely means
that the Serbs o& ugosla!ia agree to suppress any calls &or re!enge &or the massi!e )roatian
butchery o& Serbs &ollowing the mid-1991 eruption o& &ighting a&ter )roatia-s announcement o&
secession'
This is a ma3or step toward stability' The Serbian population o& ugosla!ia basically created the
peace &ollowing (orld (ar 44 by agreeing to +&orget+" or not discuss" the )roatian massacre o&
almost 1-million Serbs when )roatia had its +independence+ as a puppet state o& /then0 na,i
*ermany' 5See Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, 1671996'8 Slo!enia" which also
seceded &rom the S.R in 1991" is also #een to see a rapprochement with the .R" and it is
belie!ed that 4taly would also support such a situation'
February 1994 / March 1994
Sel&-9etermination or 4n!iolability o& Borders?
4nconsistent :pplication o& ;rinciples is <illing
The Helsinki Accords enshrine and protect the right of all peoples to self-determination. They
also enshrine and protect the inviolaility of e!isting sovereign orders. The "nited States and
many #estern $%ropean states have alternately applied one principle, and then the other, as it
s%its their c%rrent policies. &%t the res%lt has een to create irreconcilale sit%ations and, more
importantly, the prospects for vast %nrest thro%gho%t $%rope, $%rasia and else'here. Associate
P%lisher T. #. ()&ill)* +arr p%ts the pieces together.
By T. W. ("Bill") Carr, Associate Publisher. 4n the carpet o& con&lict currently laid across the
&ormer ugosla!ia are a number o& interrelated threads" wo!en o!er the centuries by the rise and
&all o& past empires" each o& which was colored by di&&ering religions and cultural !alues' .rom
the Sla! =rthodo2 )hristian #ingdoms" and the :ustro-Hungarian )atholic and =ttoman 4slamic
empires" to the &ascist :2is powers o& (orld (ar 44 and Tito-s post war communist &ederation"
each administration le&t an indelible mar# which cannot easily be erased &rom the minds o& the
people in the &ormer and current ugosla!ias'
Today" howe!er" (estern political &ashion is that sel&-determination is the only criteria &or
nationhood' .ollowing the demise o& So!iet communism and the start o& *erman re-uni&ication"
)hancellor Helmut <ohl o& *ermany constantly stated -- during the Spring and Summer o& 1991
-- that Slo!enia and )roatia had the right to e2ercise sel&-determination under ;rinciple eight o&
the Helsin#i :ccords' :t the time" howe!er" he omitted to mention ;rinciple Three o& the
Helsin#i :ccords" which speci&ies the in!iolability o& e2isting borders in >urope' =nly later"
a&ter the recognition o& Slo!enia and )roatia had been achie!ed against the wishes o& other >)
member states" did )hancellor <ohl cite ;rinciple Three o& the Helsin#i :ccords' He used ti
against Serbia /or" in &act" the new .ederal Republic o& ugosla!ia0 when the ugosla! .ederal
.orces went into action to pre!ent &urther +ethnic cleansing+ o& Serbs by )roatian units in the
<ra3ina region and other areas o& )roatia -- areas within which Serbs constituted the ma3ority o&
the local population -- but which had been deemed by the international community to be within
the newly-recogni,ed boundaries o& )roatia'
Herein lies the #ey point behind all the current con&lict in the &ormer ugosla!ia' (hich
principle in the Helsin#i :ccords ta#es precedence?' 4s it to be ;rinciple Three" sa&eguarding the
in!iolability o& e2isting >uropean borders" or ;rinciple >ight" which enshrines the right o& sel&-
determined?
4n most normal >uropean situations there is no problem? both principles can apply with e1ual
weight because most ethnic groups li!e within their own national borders' Such conditions do
not e2ist in the &ormer ugosla!ia' .or e2ample" almost @A percent o& )roatia /as presently
created by !iolating the borders o& ugosla!ia0" is land where Serbs ha!e been the ma3ority
population &or centuries' The people in these areas !oted &or sel&-determination" democratically
e2pressing a wish not to lea!e ugosla!ia' They resisted being &orced into ;resident .ran3o
Tud3man-s )roatia" a nation which had pre!iously murdered an estimated BAA"AAAC Serbs in
1941-4@" and commenced ethnic cleansing again in 1991' The $% had to inter!ene" placing the
region under $% protection" a situation which still applies in Darch 1994'
)onditions are replicated in Bosnia-Her,ego!ina" an area which has ne!er been a nation" but
which was recogni,ed as such at the behest o& the $S and a *erman-dominated >c' 9eeming it
to be a unitary nation state" the (estern powers again !iolated the borders o& ugosla!ia" and
ignored the right to sel&-determination o& the Serbs who constituted @@ percent o& the population"
and who owned in e2cess o& EE percent o& the land mass o& Bosnia-Her,ego!ina'
The (estern powers ha!e applied ;rinciple Three and ;rinciple >ight at random as be&its their
own policy ob3ecti!es at any particular moment' This is seen by the Serbs as being grossly
un&air" building within them a deep resentment against the (est" particularly the $S and
*ermany' Dost Serbs -- o&&icial and pri!ate citi,ens ali#e -- cannot see any logic in the (est-s
one-sided actions" other than a desire to destroy the new ugosla!ia' Their resentment became
bitter a&ter the imposition o& $% sanctions' By any normal logic" i& ugosla!ia was to su&&er $%
sanctions" then so should )roatia which continues to deploy up to 4A"AAA )roatian troops
/EB"AAAC by some accounts0 in Bosnia-Her,ego!ina almost two years a&ter ugosla! .orces
withdrew /in Day 19960'
4n a Demorandum to the $S House o& Representati!es .oreign :&&airs )ommittee" in January
199@" the $S Serbian $nity )ongress statedF +The Serbs want the same right which the world
has recognised &or other ugoSla!s /egF Slo!enes and )roats0" to li!e together in their own
national state" or in one single autonomous unit o& a larger political entity' The Serbs &ought &or
that right in the .irst (orld (ar" they were granted it by their political allies /.rance" $<" 4taly"
$S0" and ga!e it up when as#ed &or &orm the original ugosla!ia in 191G' They now insist on
ta#ing out o& ugosla!ia the internationally-recognised Serbian territories /as agreed in the
Hondon Treaty o& 191I0 they originally sacri&iced to &orm ugosla!ia' 4n particular" the Serbs
re3ect the partitioning o& &ormer ugosla!ia along the lines imposed by Hitler in 1941" and
reimposed by Tito in 194I 5ieF internal administrati!e boundaries -- $d.8 ' ' ' This is unacceptable
because" &irst it reduces one hal& o& Serbs to the status o& national minorities in states that openly
threaten their nationhood and e!en their physical e2istenceF and second" it isolates rump Serbia
&rom its traditional geopolitical alliances'+
The memorandum went on to state" +The Serbs !iew their role in the on-going ci!il war as
strictly de&ensi!e-preempti!e' They are not in!aders o& anybody-s territory but de&enders o& their
own homesteads where they ha!e li!ed &or centuries'+

The night #illings
$n1uestionably" the Bosnian Serbs in their +de&ensi!e-preempti!e+ actions ha!e been trying"
with !arying degrees o& success" to &orce &rom Serb territory the Doslems li!ing in urban
townships such as Tu,la" Srebrenica and Dagla3' These Duslim urban encla!es within Serb-
owned countryside" ha!e been sub3ected to siege and intermittent bombardment in an attempt to
&orce the inhabitants to lea!e &or sanctuary in Duslim-held territory'
Hittle attempt has been made by the Serbs to actually ta#e the towns by &rontal assault' :lthough
sa!ing the li!es o& young Serbs" their protracted siege tactics ha!e gi!en the (estern media
many opportunities to present the Duslims as helpless star!ing !ictims o& Serb aggression and
+ethnic cleansing+'
4n a 199@ inter!iew" Bil3ana ;lasic" the Bosnian-Serb 9eputy ;resident o& Bosnia-Her,ego!ina"
spelled out to me the reasoning behind their actions'
She saidF +:&ter all the underhanded betrayal by ;resident 5:li3a8 4,etbego!ic prior to the illegal
recognition o& Bosnia-Her,ego!ina by the $S and >)" and the subse1uent slaughter o& Serbs in
the border regions with )roatia ' ' ' in which 4,etbego!ic colluded with the )roats ' ' ' there can
be no li!ing together in multi-ethnic communities'+
+There has been too much bloodshed' There are too many #illings to be a!enged on all sides'
How can we sleep soundly e!er again in the same !illage with people who pre!iously came by
night to #ill Serbs while they slept? There is only way &orward' There has to be a separation o&
the people into three areas'+
+Three cohesi!e land areas where each ethnic group can li!e and practice their own religion' 4
am not happy about what is necessary and 4 wish we could reach a swi&t agreement with the
Duslims to e2change territory and population without any &urther &ighting' >!ery time we try to
tal# with them about e2changing people they re&use' They are e2pecting the $nited States to
inter!ene against us with &orce" so they #eep on holding Serbs hostage inside their towns" and
they go on &ighting and staging e!ents &or media li#e )%%" the BB) and The ,e' -ork Times,+
Drs ;lasic said'
+=ne thing is &or sure" no matter what happens" we are not going to li!e under the domination o&
Duslim e2tremists' Better to &ight than gi!e in to such people' They would only #ill us anyway'
;erhaps in a hundred years &rom now our great grandchildren may once more li!e together in
harmony'+

The Bal#an ethnic powder#eg
Throughout the Bal#ans there e2ist many potentially-e2plosi!e situations similar to those current
in the &ormer ugosla!ia' The Helsin#i :ccords principles o& sel&-determination and in!iolability
o& borders are lying in wait to trap the unwary" or to be e2ploited by countries pursuing their own
sel&-interests'
4n northern Serbia" south o& the border with Hungary" is a large Hungarian population li!ing in
Jo3!odina' Just to the east" in Romania" in an arc cur!ing &rom Timisoara" south to the port o&
=rso!a on the 9anube" li!es a !ery large Serb population' This area o& Transyl!ania was
originally Serbian until sold to Romania by a Serbian 9u#e in the second hal& o& the 1Gth
)entury' %ortheast o& this Serb-populated region in Romania is another area o& Transyl!ania
housing more than two-million Hungarians' =!erall" this northern belt" stretching &rom Sla!ons#i
Brod and =si3e# /Serb areas o& )roatia0 in the west" through the Jo3!odina region o& Serbia" and
eastwards across Transyl!ania along the Romanian-Hungarian border" is probably the most
ethnically di!erse in the Bal#ans' The potential &or territorial disputes and +ethnic cleansing+ is
enormous'
=ther areas" perhaps with e!en greater potential &or ethnic con&lict" are <oso!o and the San3a#
region o& ugosla!ia' Here the problem is an e2plosi!e mi2ture o& religion and nationalism with
roots reaching bac# in remote history and the Tito era' :d3acent to <oso!o is Duslim :lbania
&rom whence came 9I percent o& the present day population o& <oso!o' Tito-s parents were &rom
)roatia and Slo!enia" and during his :dministration" Tito maintained power in ugosla!ia" not
by 3ust holding bac# economic de!elopment within Serbia" but by ta#ing positi!e action to
counter the strength o& ethnic Serbs? a strength which is deri!ed &rom the si,e and geographical
spread o& the Serbian population'
He mo!ed Serbs out o& their religious heartland <oso!o" the place where they had &ought their
most historic battle against the =ttoman Tur#s' :t the same time" Tito encouraged :lbanian
Duslims to mo!e into the area !acated as a means o& soliciting &a!our &rom Diddle >ast Duslim
countries' (hen subse1uent discriminatory action and !iolence dro!er Serb &amilies out o&
<oso!o he did nothing to pre!ent the e2odus' Today a situation pre!ails where $S o&&icials say
that i& Serbia +in!ades+ <oso!o then the (est must attac# ugosla!ia using the &ull might o&
%:T=' 4t seems these o&&icials do not realise that <oso!o is an integral part o& Serbia' How can
a country attac# itsel&?
4n e&&ect what they really mean is that sel&-determination is paramount? ;rinciple eight o!errule
;rinciple Three o& the Helsin#i :ccords' This is the direct opposite o& the situation in the
<ra3ina" where the same o&&icials say )roatia-s Hitler7Tito-generated borders are paramount?
;rinciple Three o!errrules ;rinciple >ight' 4s it any wonder the Serbs &eel aggrie!ed and are
bewildered by (estern logic" or rather the lac# o& it? Just li#e the Duslims in Bosnia-
Her,ego!ina" the :lbanian Duslims draw encouragement &rom (estern statements and threats
against ugosla!ia o!er <oso!o'
British politicians such as ;addy :shdown" leader o& the opposition Hiberal 9emocratic ;arty"
warn constantly that i& the (est does not +stop Serbian aggression in Bosnia and )roatia+" then
<oso!o will be Serbia-s ne2t target &or aggressi!e +ethnic cleansing+' Such a domino theory is
not !alid in the <oso!o situation' Trouble will only erupt as a result o& pro!ocati!e action by the
Duslim population within <oso!o" or &rom outside inter&erence' 4n such circumstances"
ugosla!ia has a choice o& action' 4t can withdraw &rom its own territory" or it can ta#e &orce&ul
action to suppress ci!il unrest" #nowing &ull well that the latter will result in heightened media
attention on a massi!e scale" &ollowed by political demands &or the $% Security )ouncil to ta#e
military action against ugosla!ia'

: +*reater :lbania+?
4n addition to migration to <oso!o" large numbers o& ethnic :lbanians mo!ed east into what was
then the ugosla! region o& Dacedonia /now an independent state0" while others mo!ed
northwards and now &orm a Duslim encla!e in the San3a# area o& ugosla!ia' :n analysis o&
actions in this region indicate that :lbania harbours a desire to create a *reater :lbania' To the
e2isting state would be added the western part o& what is now the .ormer ugosla! Republic o&
Dacedonia /.R=D0" a strip o& northern *reece &rom 4goumentsa on the :driatic coast
eastwards to <astoria and .lorina" plus <oso!o and westwards to include the San3a# in
ugosla!ia'
=n Darch 16" 1994" *ermany announced that @A"AAAA Serb re&ugees would soon be repatriated
to the &ormer ugosla!ia on the grounds that they did not 1uali&y &or re&ugee status'
Signi&icantly" none o& the re&ugees to be repatriated ha!e passports &rom the .ederal Republic o&
ugosla!ia" indicating that they are" in all li#elihood" :lbanians' 4ntelligence reports reaching
Defense & Foreign Affairs indicate that intermingled among these @A"AAA will be some I"AAA
+Serbian+ :lbanians &rom <oso!o who ha!e recei!ed military training at an abandoned $S
military base at Handstule in *ermany' Their tas# is to mo!e into <oso!o where they will be
3oined by &ellow <oso!o-born :lbanians who ha!e been recei!ing military training at a Saudi-
&unded +re&ugee camp+ established in :lbania in June 199@' The true purpose o& the :lbanian
re&ugee camp was re!ealed to BB) (orld Ser!ice correspondent Disha *lenny in July 199@ by
a Bosnian Duslim )ommander in Sara3e!o'

The new )roat-Bosnian Duslim alliance
:n intelligence picture is ta#ing shape regarding $S diplomatic mo!es during mid-Darch 1994
in bro#ering a peace between the Bosnian Duslims" the Bosnian )roats and )roatia' There now
seems little doubt that" contrary to the publicly stated $S !iew that this is a &irst step towards
peace in the &ormer ugosla!ia" the unstated /and possibly de facto0 $S aim is to create what
amounts to a Duslim-Roman )atholic alliance capable o& ta#ing on the =rthodo2-)hristian
Serbs militarily in Bosnia-Her,ego!ina and in <nin and <ra3ina" the disputed territories along
the Serbian7)roatian border' =!er the past 1G months" the $S has ta#en a &irm grip on :lbania
/see Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy, =ctober-%o!ember 199@F +:lbania has come to
resemble an :merican training academy' The poorest country in >urope is &ast becoming an
:merican colony'+0'
:rms ha!e also been &lowing into the alliance countries &rom *ermany and many 4slamic
countries' 5See Defense & Foreign Affairs Strategic Policy issues &rom 9ecember @1" 1996" to
January @1" 1994" and The Arms Transfer Tales in this edition' Substantial additional trans&ers
o& weapons into )roatia and Bosnia-Her,ego!ina are also #now to ha!e occurred during this
time&rame'8
=ther reports which added to the intelligence picture included one by Robert .o2" Bosnian
correspondent o& the Hondon-based newspaper" The Daily Telegraph. He reported on 9ecember
69" 199@" that the Bosnian Duslim Hand,ar di!ision had mo!ed into the mountainous region
around .o3nicaF +$p to E"AAA strong" the Hand,ar di!ision glories in a &ascist culture' They see
themsel!es as the heir o& the Ss Hand,ar di!ision" &ormed in 194@ to &ight &or the na,is'+ .o2
goes on to 1uote $% o&&icersF +Surprisingly &ew o& those in charge o& the Hand,ars in .o3nica
seem to spea# good Serbo-)roatian' Dany o& them are :lbanian" whether &rom <oso!o 5the Serb
pro!ince where :lbanians are the ma3ority8 or &rom :lbania itsel&'+ .o2 states that $% sources
on the spot told himF +The Hand,ars are trained and led by !eterans &rom :&ghanistan and
;a#istan' The strong presence o& nati!e :lbanians is an ominous sign' 4t could be that the the
seeds o& war are spreading south !ia <oso!o and into :lbania" thence to the :lbanians o&
Dacedonia'+
.o2 himsel& belie!es that +hardline elements o& the Bosnian :rmy" li#e the Hand,ar" appear to
ha!e the bac#ing o& an increasingly e2treme leadership in Sara3e!o" represented by Dr >3up
*anic" .oreign Dinister" Dr Haris Sila3d,ic" ;rime Dinister" and Dr >n!er Hadihasano!ic" the
new :rmy chie&-'

Recent >!ents
(hen the Sara3e!o mar#et place massacre happened at 16'A6 hrs on .ebruary I" 1994" the $S
immediately used the e!ent to mo!e the $% Security )ouncil into issuing a 1A day deadline
ultimatum to the Bosnian Serbs to pull bac# their hea!y artillery and mortars &rom the hills abo!e
Sara3e!o" or &ace %:T= air stri#es' :t the time" the $% )ommander" British Ht'-*eneral Sir
Dichael Rose" said it was not possible to say which side had &ired the alleged +mortar round+'
Howe!er" it has been alleged by a number o& unnamed $% sources that a subse1uent con&idential
$%;R=.=R technical report showed it was more li#ely that the Duslims staged the e!ent to
e!o#e $% military action against the Serbs'
: letter &rom >) peace mediator Hord =wen to >) &oreign ministers" containing statements that
the Bosnian Duslims were probably behind the e!ent was shown by .rench Television . on
.ebruary 1G' (hen challenged by the .rench authorities" T.-1-s (ashington-based reporter" $li&
*ose" and T.-1-s .oreign :&&airs editor" Bernard Jol#er" stuc# by their report that said an
$%;R=.=R in!estigation had shown the mortar was &ired some 1'I #ilometres inside Duslim
lines" a noti&ication o& which Hord =wen had repeated in his letter to the >) &oreign ministers'
9espite all this" and a continued denial o& any in!ol!ement by the Bosnian Serbs" the $S has
continued to blame only the Serbs" and pressed ahead with its so-called peace bro#ering alliance
o& )roats and Duslims'
5Defense & Foreign Affairs/ e!idence o& this incident is that" in &act" the e2plosion may ha!e
occurred as a result o& a ground-placed de!ice" planted in the Duslim mar#etplace by Hi0ollah
mercenaries on behal& o& the 4,etbego!ic *o!ernment" and not as a result o& a mortar attac#' See
January @1" 1994" edition'8
:nother con!enient incident to help mo!e $S policy &orward occurred when it was alleged that
two $S:. .-1E &ighter aircra&t had shot down &our +Serbian+ S%per 1ale ground-attac# aircra&t
caught attac#ing a Bosnian-Duslim munitions &actory' Two other +Serbian+ S%per 1ales
escaped by &leeing into )roatian airspace' There is doubt that this incident e!er too# place' There
are a number o& 1uestions ne!er answered in any o& the reports at the time" or subse1uently' (hy
was it not disclosed which air&ield the +Serbian aircra&t+ &lew &rom and returned to? Surely the
Boeing >-@: :(:)S can trac# all mo!ement o!er the entire &omer ugosla!ia? That is the
reason &or their deployment' Secondly" why did $%;R=.=R monitors based at Bosnian Serb
air&ields not identi&y which air&ield the aircra&t operated &rom? Thirdly" why has the media not
shown the wrec#age o& the &our aircra&t shot down? This should not be a di&&icult tas# when the
:(:)S and $S &ighter crews could pinpoint where the +Serb aircra&t+ were downed' There is
also the point that the Bosnian Serbs ha!e consistently said they ha!e not lost any aircra&t'
(hen a senior 4talian *o!ernment Dinister was as#ed during an inter!iew whose aircra&t were
in!ol!ed" he replied it was o& no importance? only the outcome mattered'
=ne can only conclude there is considerable doubt about the !alidity o& the reports o& the
incident? e!en it did happen" there are still unanswered 1uestions as to the ownership o& the
attac# aircra&t' 4t would not be normal &or Bosnian Serb aircra&t to &lee into )roatia -- hostile
enemy territory -- to escape $S &ighters' They would gain increased protection by &leeing into
ugosla!ia" not )roatia' =nly )roatian aircra&t are li#ely to &lee into )roatian airspace'

$S Bal#an policy and the Helsin#i :ccords
The $S was humiliated by the ugosla!s on three occasions recently' =n the &irst occasion" the
Serbs re3ected a Serb-born :merican" Dilan ;anic" as the ;rime Dinister o& ugosla!ia'
Secondly" $S Secretary o& State (arren )hristopher was totally re3ected in his o!ertures and
demands made to Belgrade during his !isit there in 199@' :nd" &inally" so too was State
9epartment Special >n!oy Ralph Batholomew when he issued dire military threats against
ugosla!ia in 199@' The $S *o!ernment is now &irmly entrenched in its anger toward Belgrade"
and is clearly in!ol!ed in some discreet strategic mo!es to &urther isolate the .ederal Republic o&
ugosla!ia" e!en though it has complied with all the re1uirements o& the $nited %ations &or a
li&ting o& the $% sanctions' The $S appears to be preparing to resist any li&ting o& the $%
sanctions'
4n the Bal#ans" the $S *o!ernment" in collusion with the *erman *o!ernment" appears to be
&orging a )roat-Duslim alliance in order to bend the Serbs to its will'
Honger term" the $S seems to be sta#ing out a position in the Bal#ans" possibly because the
situation in the &ormer So!iet $nion is so uncertain' Russian ;resident Boris eltsin-s health is
!ery poor and he is unli#ely to be in power much longer" which will probably result in a more
nationalist leader ta#ing o!er' The $S and *ermany are competitors on the global scale" but at
present in the Bal#ans at least" there appears to be collusion' *ermany is e2erting in&luence o!er
its traditional area o& Hungary" Slo!enia" )roatia and Bosnia" while the $S ta#es care o& :lbania"
Dacedonia" Romania" Bulgaria" *reece and Tur#ey'
The $S *o!ernment appears to use the right o& sel&-determination and the in!iolability o&
international borders purely &or &urthering $S policy" both short-term tactical" and longer term
strategic' 4n the Bal#ans" the $S *o!ernment is not consistent when applying the principle o&
sel&-determination to the Duslims and )roats on the one hand" and the Serbs on the other' The
two principles also appear to be interchangeable in terms o& application and importance'
: rele!ant parallel to watch will be the $S *o!ernment-s reaction to the un&olding situation in
%orthern 4reland' There is no doubt that" under international law" %orthern 4reland is an integral
part o& the $nited <ingdom' %either is there any doubt that the ma3ority o& the people o&
%orthern 4reland ha!e e2pressed a democratic wish to remain a part o& the $<' 4&" howe!er" one
goes bac# in history" ignoring the present position o& the pro!ince in the $<" and holds a
re&erendum in the 'hole o& 4reland" then probably a ma3ority would be in &a!or o& 4reland
becoming a unitary state' Ta#e the logic one step &urther and hold the re&erendum across the
whole o& the $< and 4reland" both north and south" and the outcome is not predictable' (ould a
sel&-determination !ote result in the Republic o& >ire /Southern 4reland0 being &orced to once
again become part o& the $<?
The parallel in the &ormer ugosla!ia between the Bosnia-)roatia-Serbia-<oso!o situation and
the $<-%orthern 4reland->ire situation is !ery real'
.or domestic political reasons" $S ;resident (illiam )linton was prepared to ris# $S-$<
relations to some degree by allowing the leader o& the outlawed 4rish Republican :rmy-s political
wing" Sinn Fein, Jerry :dams" to !isit the $S to present the case &or the terrorist organi,ation'
Similar situations in!ol!ing sel&-determination could arise in the &uture in the $S itsel& with the
Hispanic populations in .lorida" southern )ali&ornia" Te2as and elsewhere'
These groups" gi!en time and a high birth rate" could demand the right to sel&-determination as
+suppressed peoples" su&&ering under white :merican domination+' Their cry would be little
di&&erent &rom the o& the Duslim :lbanians in Serbia-s <oso!o'
February 28, 1995
)roatia ;ushes The $% and <ra3ina To The
Brin# =& : )on&lict (hich )ould (iden To
Da3or (ar
+roatian President Fran2o T%d2rnan %sed m%ch of Fer%ary to engage in an act of
rinkmanship, 'hich rings to a head at least a year of +roatian planning to evict the "nited
,ations Protection Force (",P34F43* troops from +roatia. Then, +roatian forces 'o%ld e
free to move into the historically Serian area of 5ra2ina, no' part of +roatia, to ethnically
cleanse it (and other areas of +roatia* of the remaining Sers. This edition 'as delayed %ntil
early 6arch so that more concl%sive information co%ld e incl%ded. Associate P%lisher &ill
+arr reports.
By Bill Carr, Associate Publisher. )roatian ;resident .ran3o la Tud3man ordered all $nited
%ations ;rotection .orce /$%;R=.=R0 units to lea!e )roatian territory by Darch @1" 199I' The
mo!e" as reported earlier by this 3ournal" was a step toward gi!ing the )roatian *o!ernment a
&ree hand to o!errun territory in what is now )roatia historically owned and occupied by Serbs
/now )roatian Serbs0' The geographically and culturally coherent region o& <ra3ina" within what
is now )roatia" has declared that it will resist absorption into )roatia" and" by the end o&
.ebruary 199I" military units &rom the Republic o& Serb <ra3ina were mobili,ing to resist the
anticipated )roatian *o!ernment inter!ention'
(ill a resumption o& the <ra3ina con&lict ine!itably cause &ighting between )roatia and what has
now become the main homeland o& Serbs" the Republic o& ugosla!ia? 4s it possible that the
$nited %ations /$%0 Security )ouncil and the %orth :tlantic Treaty =rgani,ation /%:T=0"
unable to pre!ent a wider con&lict erupting across much o& the Bal#ans" will be &orced to
withdraw &rom the region?
By the end o& .ebruary it was becoming apparent that the )roatian *o!ernment was considering
options other than the complete withdrawal o& the $%;R=.=R troops' (hat it mainly had in
mind" according to sources in Kagreb" was a re!ision o& the agreement co!ering the deployment
and role o& the $%;R=.=R units' This" it hoped" would enable it to use the $% to restrict
contact between Serb <ra3ina and the Bosnian Serb territory" with which it is" in some areas"
contiguous'
The *o!ernment o& )roatia is well aware that the ability o& the <ra3ina Serbs to resist )roatian
military action depends on <ra3ina recei!ing military" logistical and manpower support &rom
across the Bosnian Serb border' ;resident Tud3man" who had in .ebruary re3ected any
reconsideration o& the $% mandate" was beginning to &ed international pressure on his stand"
which clearly aimed at +ethnically cleansing+ <ra3ina -- and other parts o& )roatia -- o& those
Serbs who remained' >arlier )roatian endea!ors had &orced large parts o& the )roatian Serbian
community to &lee'

Roots of the Krajina proble
9uring (orld (ar 44" e!en be&ore the occupying *ermans were remo!ed" the )ommunist ;arty
o& ugosla!ia" under the Partisan leader Josip Bros" /later to become Darshal Tito0" determined
the new internal boundaries &or the postwar &ederation' These &ederal units" or republics"
re&lected the decisi!e input o& Tito /part )roat0 and the Slo!enian" >d!ard <ardel3' :s a result"
post-war ugosla!ia showed arbitrarily re-drawn internal boundaries which &a!ored )roatia and
Slo!enia territorially'
Tito himsel& #new that these arti&icial boundaries" which included large ethnic minorities within
them" would not be accepted willingly as +national+ units by the ethnic minorities" or the Serbs in
Serbia itsel&' %e!ertheless" without any discussion" or establishment o& a legal &ramewor#" the
units were designated as the Republic o& )roatia" the Republic o& Slo!enia and the Republic o&
Bosnia Her,ego!ina' Tito said the &rontiers were o& no conse1uence as the boundaries between
the Republics were only &or internal administrati!e purposes'
9espite Tito-s assurance" it was this arti&icial boundary structure which was used as the legal
de&inition when the new countries were recogni,ed by the international community as
independent so!ereign states' Trapped within these boundaries were thousands o& Serbs who &elt"
with historical 3usti&ication" that the ground on which they had li!ed &or centuries" &ormed part o&
their natural homeland Serbia' .rom the Serbs- !iewpoint the land they &armed had ne!er been"
and ne!er would be" part o& independent )roatia or Bosnia Her,ego!ina' 4ndeed the latter ne!er
had been a state as constituted on :pril E" 1996" when granted recognition by *ermany" and on
:pril B" when granted recognition by the $S'
>!en be&ore gaining international recognition" ;resident Tud3man introduced a new )roatian
constitution which de&ined the state as the national state o& the )roatian people -and others-
immediately and pointedly relegating the Serbs" Jews" *ypsies and others to second-class status'
This was e2actly as had occurred in 1941 when na,i *ermany under :dol& Hitler had &ormed
)roatia &ollowing the in!asion o& ugosla!ia' Similarly" in mid-1991" )roatian &orces o& the
%ational *uard )orps /K%*0 wearing the same insignia as the &ascist "sta7e in 1941" began the
same process o& ethnic cleansing o& Serbs li!ing within the new )roatia'
Between June 1" 1991" and %o!ember 6@" 1991" )roatian &orces too# control o& the largely Serb
populated town o& Ju#o!ar" regarded by the "sta7e in (orld (ar 44 as one o& the most
important towns in the 4ndependent State o& )roatia' >yewitness sur!i!ors" and &orensic e!idence
gathered during and a&ter the &ighting" showed that more than a thousand Serbs were #illed
/&re1uently ha!ing &irst been tortured0 at Ju#o!ar be&ore the then ugosla! %ational :rmy
&ought its way into the town a&ter ra,ing much o& it to the ground by hea!y shelling'
:t the time o& *ermany announcing its recognition o& )roatia on 9ecember 64" 1991" Serb
communities in <ra3ina 3oined with the sel&-proclaimed Serbian :utonomous Region o&
Sla!on3a" Baran3a and (est Srem to &orm the Srps#a <ra3ina Republic /RS<0' )laiming the
same right to sel&-determination as the )roats and already under attac# &rom the )roatian K%*"
the <ra3ina Serbs declared their independence and e2ercised their right to sel&-de&ense' RS<
territory was placed under $% protection in Darch 1996" but sporadic &ighting continued
throughout 1996'
4n January 199@" )roatian &orces estimated at between 1B"AAA and 6A"AAA troops launched a
surprise attac# against the Serb-held <ra3ina' The Serbs &ought bac# and as part o& a cease&ire
agreement the area became a so-called +;in# Kone+ placed under $%;R=.=R protection" and
within which the warring &actions pledged there would be no &ighting' $% Security )ouncil
Resolution GA6 censured )roatia &or the attac# and ordered the immediate withdrawal o&
)roatian troops' :t the *ene!a ;eace )on&erence on Darch 6" 199@" the RS< agreed to the
Jance-=wen proposal that as the )roatian &orces withdrew" only $%;R=.=R" would occupy
the territory &ormerly held by the Serbs prior to the )roatian attac#' %o &inal agreement was
concluded until July 1E' Howe!er" in spite o& demands during :ugust by the senior $% )i!il
:&&airs 9irector in the &ormer ugosla!ia" Dr )edric Thornberry" that the )roatian &orces honor
the agreement and withdraw" nothing too# place'
4nstead" $%;R=.=R units hastily withdrew' This was ta#en as a sign o& wea#ness on the part o&
$%;R=.=R by the )roatian military who proceeded to prepare a series o& swi&t stri#es against
parts o& the RS<' >arly September witnessed the launch o& a number o& surprise attac#s against
Serb !illages supposedly under the protection o& $%;R=.=R'
Shannon Boyd" $%;R=.=R spo#eswoman" issued a press release in the )roatian capital"
Kagreb" on September 1G" 199@" in which she saidF +$%;R=.=R troops &ound at least 11
!illages in the Deda# poc#et completely destroyed ' ' ' 4t was assessed that the destruction was
well organi,ed" systematic and completely thorough' Homes were reduced to rubble by
detonations and dead li!estoc# littered the area'+ 4n a &ollow-on press release the ne2t day"
Shannon Boyd 1uoted the $% .orce )ommander" *eneral Jean )ot" as sayingF +4 ha!e &ound no
sign o& human or animal li&e in the se!eral !illages we passed through today' The destruction is
total" systematic and deliberate'+
The day a&ter *eneral )ot-s con&irmation o& the ethnic cleansing o& the 11 Serb !illages"
;resident Tud3man 3usti&ied the action' Spea#ing to the press at the ;eace )on&erence being held
in Jienna" ;resident Tud3man said that the area belonged to )roatia and )roatian .orces had
e!ery right to establish )roatian control o!er it' He also said that i& $%;R=.=R did not stop
protecting the <ra3ina Serbs then $% troops would ha!e to lea!e )roatia'
>arlier in 199@" an :ustralian o&&icer" J Dellis" in his capacity as $%;R=.=R spo#esman"
condemned )roatian aggression in the <ra3ina" and deplored )roatian *o!ernment control o& the
media' +(e ha!e no way o& presenting our !iews to the )roatian public"+ said Dellis in an
inter!iew carried by the *erman paper Die Tages0eit%ng in Berlin' +The essence o& the Jance-
=wen ;lan a year ago was to get the con&licting sides to tal# with each other" and the )roatian
side has not made a single step towards this ob3ecti!e"+ stated Dellis' The ne2t day in Kagreb
another $%;R=.=R spo#esman" John Dills" ampli&ied some o& the statements made by Dellis'
He accused )roatia o& censoring in&ormation broadcast on the )roatian radio as part o& the $%-s
Special ;rograms- e&&ort to tal# directly to the local population' Dills saidF +(e ha!e recently
disco!ered that some o& our programs broadcast in the )roatian language were edited to alter the
meaning o& the in&ormation' =ther $% programs had been banned by the )roatian radio without
e2planation? in .ebruary /199@0 eight programs were banned but our protestations to the rele!ant
)roatian authorities are ignored'+

!i"hteen onths on
:n assessment =& the present situation in the <ra3ina has to be made against this &our-year
bac#ground o& resurgent )roatian nationalism and the resultant ethnic cleansing' 4n addition"
cogni,ance must be ta#en o& the &acts gi!en in a 9ecember 199@ report by the $% Secretary-
*eneral Boutros Boutros-*hali' 4n his report to the $% Security )ouncil" the Secretary-*eneral
stated that at least 6IA"AAA Serbs had been dri!en out o& )roatia in the period between 1991 and
9ecember 199@' This &orced e2odus o& Serbs &rom )roatia was in &act the start o& ethnic
cleansing" a term which was created by )roatian "sta7e in (orld (ar 44 and used later by the
(estern media to describe actions by the Serbs in Bosnia'
4n many respects nothing seems to ha!e changed &or the better' Statements made in 199@" and
since" by $%;R=.=R spo#espersons about )roatia-s unhelp&ul attitude towards sol!ing the
<ra3ina problem through peace&ul means" and )roatia-s anti-$%;R=.=R actions" ha!e been
!indicated by subse1uent e!ents'
=n .ebruary 64" 199I" during a regular press brie&ing at Ju#o!ar" $%;R=.=R )oordinator &or
)i!ilian :&&airs in Sector >ast" ;hillip )orwin" in answer to 1uestions &rom the international
press corps" e2pressed the belie& that the )roatian *o!ernment had decided to banish
$%;R=.=R &rom the <ra3ina area more than one year ago' He saidF +This is not a recent
decision' .or a long time" )roatian authorities ha!e been producing much &alse in&ormation
about $%;R=.=R" and not a single positi!e article has been published in )roatia about
$%;R=.=R &or more than a year? this is not a mere coincidence" it is a strategy'+ )orwin went
on to sayF +: &rontal war between the )roats and the <ra3ina Serbs was highly probable i&
$%;R=.=R withdrew &rom the ,one o& separation between the two hea!ily armed sides'+
:s#ed i& it were possible &or $%;R=.=R to lea!e )roatian territory but stay in the area under
the control o& the <ra3ina Serbs /an idea already proposed by the <ra3ina Serbs as a
peace#eeping measure0" the $%;R=.=R )i!ilian )oordinator e2plained that this would not be
possible because /on this territory0 the $% recogni,ed only )roatia as an independent so!ereign
state? it did not &ormally recogni,e the Republic o& Serb <ra3ina as an independent state'
)orwin went on to say" +The )roatian :uthorities- decision is based on an incorrect assumption
that $%;R=.=R would be replaced by %:T= .orces'+ %e!ertheless" the )roatian 9e&ense
Dinister" *o3#o Susa#" 3ust two wee#s be&ore" had made it clear )roatia was attempting to
position itsel& alongside %:T=' Dinister Susa# is reported as saying on .ebruary 6" 199I"
during a press inter!iewF +Ha!ing %:T= bases on /the :driatic islands o&0 JiL and at 9i!ul3e
/near the )roatian na!al base0 would be in )roatia-s interest'+ Feral Tri%ne, a semi-independent
newspaper produced in Split" re!ealed on January 6" 199I" that a ma3or $S military base had
already been established on the island o& Brac in the :driatic o&& Split'
The day a&ter )orwin-s press con&erence at Ju#o!ar" :lun Robert" spo#esman &or $%;R=.=R
Sector South based at <nin" said that )roatia was re&using to allow the deployment o& more $%
obser!ers along the line o& separation' Spea#ing at a press con&erence" Robert saidF +The
)roatians are restricting $%;R=.=R obser!er mo!ement in the area o& the )roatian-controlled
town o& *ospic in the Hi#a region'+ He added that )roatia was also training troops intensi!ely in
this area which they were not permitting $%;R=.=R to enter'
:ll the signals &rom the )roatian' *o!ernment indicate that it is preparing to attac# the RS< as a
means o& achie!ing the +&inal solution+ o& being rid o& Serbs &rom territory which they claim is
part o& the )roatian so!ereign state' 4n the eyes o& many countries and indi!iduals" )roatia-s
stand is a !alid one" based upon international recognition o& the boundaries set by Tito in 194I'
The claim" howe!er" is &lawed !iewed &rom the Serbs- position' The land is their land which they
ha!e &armed &or centuries' 4n this they are supported by the Russian *o!ernment'
The Russian :mbassador to Kagreb" Heonid <erestedi3anc" is reported in late .ebruary as sayingF
+4n discussions and during peace tal#s" 4 ha!e to constantly correct those who re&er to the
-occupied areas- and the -Serb occupiers-' ;eople who ha!e li!ed here /in )roatia0 &or centuries
cannot occupy their own homes and the land o& their ancestors'+
=n )roatian TJ" on Darch @" 199I" )roatian 9e&ense Dinister *o3#o Susa# told !iewers that
)roatia would not alter its decision that $%;R=.=R troops must lea!e the whole o& the country
by Darch @1' He went on to sayF +(e will accept the positioning o& international
monitors7obser!ers along the borders o& Serbia and Bosnia" and along separation lines with
<ra3ina" i& they ha!e the mandate and support o& %:T=" or any other power to carry it out'+
Dinister Susa# did not clari&y the +other power+ but it was ta#en to re&er to the $S *o!ernment
which last year bro#ered the )roat-Duslim :lliance in Bosnia" and the )on&ederation between
)roatia and Bosnia' 54n a recent mo!e to impro!e &ighting capability" on Darch E" the
)on&ederation &ormed a 3oint military command headed by )roatian *eneral Jan#o Bobet#o and
supported by *eneral Rasim 9elic and *eneral Tihomir Blas#ic o& the Duslim-)roat army --
$d.8'
Dinister Susa# reiterated that )roatia &a!ored a peace&ul settlement" but then went on to say that
)roatia now had 114"AAA troops and was ready to mobili,e hal& a million people within 64 hours'
;ossibly preparing the )roatian people &or an outbrea# o& intense &ighting soon" the Dinister also
saidF +The )roatian :rmy will launch limited military actions /to ta#e control o& the country
where the Serbs li!e0 but" i& a large scale con&lict erupted" then it would be o!er be&ore Belgrade
and ;ale could 3oin the &ight to help the Serbs in <ra3ina'+

#iploatic o$es to hea% off the conflict
:t the time o& writing" $S :ssistant Secretary o& State Richard Holbroo#e had &lown into Kagreb
&or tal#s with ;resident Tud3man in an e&&ort to persuade him to rescind his order that
$%;R=.=R must lea!e )roatia by the Darch @1 deadline' 4t seemed that the allies were ma#ing
intense diplomatic e&&orts to persuade ;resident Tud3man to bac# down' 4t appears that there is
an agreed method o& achie!ing that ob3ecti!e with Russia and the $S employing the +tough guy"
&riendly guy+ techni1ue' The Russian :mbassador in Kagreb let it be #nown that Russia would
ad!ocate imposing $% sanctions on )roatia i& )roatian &orces attac#ed the RS<' :mbassador
<erestedi3anc is reported by the Belgrade newspaper Politika as sayingF +The regulation o&
Kagreb-<nin relations could continue only in the presence o& $% ;eace#eepers' ;erhaps we can
change the structure o& the $% .orce a little" but it is essential that there are peace#eepers on the
ground to help the peace process'+ He is also reported as saying it is necessary to return to the
Jance-=wen ;lan which had been accepted by Kagreb" Belgrade and <nin as the basis &or
progress'
$S :ssistant Secretary o& State Holbroo#e is reported by (ashington sources to be o&&ering
;resident Tud3man a &ace-sa!ing &ormula hinted at by :mbassador <erestedi3anc" namely a
reduction in $%;R=.=R troop le!els and some degree o& &orce redeployment' %o reports o& the
outcome o& their meetings had been issued by press time" e2cept a statement &rom a )roatian
*o!ernment spo#esman which said that ;resident Tud3man and the $S >n!oy had only
discussed a solution &or a peace process a&ter the withdrawal o& the $% ;rotection .orce'
4n #eeping with ;hilip )orwin-s statement on .ebruary 64" there is a more pragmatic approach
being ad!ocated by some $S agencies" namelyF +Simply tell ;resident Tud3man he is on his own
in this'+ They hope that :ssistant Secretary o& State Holbroo#e made it !ery clear in his &ace-to-
&ace meetings in Kagreb that there would be no $S ca!alry riding in to protect )roatia &rom
either the RS< and7or Serbia i& he chose the war option' The $< *o!ernment is #nown to ha!e
made the )roatian *o!ernment aware" through diplomatic channels" that neither %:T= nor the
(estern >uropean $nion /(>$0 would be permitted to put the li!es o& British troops at ris# in
the disputed areas o& )roatia &or something which is a!oidable and unli#ely to achie!e a lasting
solution to the <ra3ina problem'
>!en i& the now better-e1uipped )roatian :rmy and :ir .orce could de&eat the <ra3ina Serbs
/and that is by no means certain0" the danger o& an escalation o& &ighting spreading to in!ol!e
ugosla!ia /and in particular its main constituent state" the Republic o& Serbia0 is real' ;resident
Tud3man may or may not ha!e an understanding with Serbian ;resident Slobodan DiloLe!ic that
the continued e2istence o& the RS< is tradable &or the li&ting o& $% sanctions imposed on
ugosla!ia' >ither way is li#ely to ma#e little di&&erence' The sight o& <ra3ina Serbs &ighting
with their bac#s against the wall and re&ugees once more pouring across into Serbia would be too
much &or the Serbs in Bosnia and in ugosla!ia to ta#e' 4t would be di&&icult &or ;resident
DiloLe!ic to restrain the ugosla! :rmed .orces in such circumstances' His hold on political
o&&ice would be in 3eopardy in the &ace o& Serbian nationalism which runs deep in the Serb
psyche' (ith ultra-nationalists such as :r#an waiting in the wings to play the nationalism card"
;resident DiloLe!ic will probably ha!e to place himsel& at the head o& the mob or lose the
;residency'
=n Darch E" ;resident DiloLe!ic met with the co-chairmen o& the )on&erence on the &ormer
ugosla!ia" Hord 9a!id =wen and Dr Thorwald Stoltenberg" in Belgrade to discuss the )roatia-
<ra3ina situation and e&&orts to &ind a peace&ul solution to all the separate points o& con&lict
throughout the &ormer ugosla!ia' 4t is belie!ed that the prime &ocus o& the tal#s was the
immediate problem o& the <ra3ina and +what i&+ actions may be re1uired should )roatia persist in
ordering $%;R=.=R to lea!e all o& the territory currently recogni,ed as )roatia by the
international community'
The &ollowing day Hord =wen and Dr Stoltenberg &lew to Kagreb and held similar discussions
with Dr Hr!o3e Sarinic" Head o& the )roatian 9elegation in the on-going tal#s with the RS<'
Hord =wen said the 1uestion o& the $%;R=.=R mandate would be resol!ed be&ore the Darch
@1 deadline' He also e2pressed hope that progress would be achie!ed in the )roatian-<ra3ina
Serb tal#s'
The co-chairmen and the $S en!oy are not the only people engaged in diplomatic mo!es to
de&use the situation'
4n Doscow" Russian .oreign Dinistry spo#esman" *rigory <arasin" admitted his ministry was
busy dra&ting an action plan &or the <ra3ina which would be presented to its international
partners a&ter appro!al &rom ;resident Boris eltsin' He e2pressed gra!e concern about
mounting tension in the region" the escalation o& armed dashes and the &ormation o& a 3oint
military command between )roatia and the Bosnian Duslim-)roat .ederation'

4n the wings" the Bosnian Duslim .orces prepare &or war
D>:%(H4H>" arms continue to &low into Bosnia in e!er-increasing !olumes' There is no
1uestion now o& the truth o& the disclosure by this 3ournal last year that Tu,la air&ield was being
used to bring arms &rom the Diddle >ast &or Bosnian Duslim /4,etbego!ic0 &orces' :t the time"
the" deli!eries !ia this route were in an embryonic stage' Since January o& this year" the e&&ort has
increased into an almost routine operation with &lights arri!ing and departing nearly e!ery night'
$% o&&icials ha!e been denied access to the area and %:T= remains mute despite e!idence &rom
people on the ground who see the $S-built Hoc#heed )-1@A Herc%les transports &lying in night
a&ter night'
So which country is &louting the $% Security )ouncil-s Resolution that arms must not be
supplied to any member nation o& the &ormer ugosla!ia? .irst reports blamed the )4: on the
basis that the )-1@A is a $S aircra&t' But Tur#ey" 4ran and Saudi :rabia all ha!e )-1@As' The
truth is shrouded in misin&ormation &rom many 1uarters' 4t is inconcei!able that %:T= is
unaware o& what is going on' The whole a&&air has an air o& collusion by many countries who
may be building up the capability o& the Bosnian 4,etbego!ic .orces prior to a complete
withdrawal o& $%;R=.=R &rom Bosnia and )roatia'
$S military sources ha!e indicated to this 3ournal that Dacedonia has been de!eloped into a $S
,one o& interest" into which they ha!e made preparations to send in more than @"AAA ground
troops to rein&orce the EAAC already in Dacedonia'
The $S" it appears" would attempt to contain &rom its peripheral position any con&lict which
might erupt in the Bal#ans i& the present round o& peace tal#s &ailed" lea!ing the con&ederation o&
)roats and 4,etbego!ic Duslims to cope with the Serbs &rom )roatia" Bosnia-Her,ego!ina and
ugosla!ia'