Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity

23 June - 19 July 2014

Solar activity is exected to increase t!roug!out t!e outloo" eriod
due to t!e return of a fe# active regions t!at #ere relatively
roductive last rotation$ Solar activity is li"ely to %e lo# #it! a
slig!t c!ance for &-class '(1-(2 '&inor-&oderate)) flare activity
for 23-2* Jun$ As (egions 20+0 'S11, -.2/3) and 20+* 'S20, -.2*/)
return to t!e visi%le dis", solar activity is exected to %e lo#
#it! a c!ance for &-class '(1-(2) flare activity for 2/ Jun-0* Jul$
(egion 20+0 roduced t#o &-class flares and (egion 20+* roduced
t!ree &-class flares last rotation$ Solar activity is li"ely to %e
moderate '(1-(2) #it! a c!ance for 0-class '(3 or greater) flare
activity for 0/-11 Jul #it! t!e return of (egion 20+1 'S1+, -.1**)
#!ic! roduced eig!t &-class flares and t!ree 0-class flares last
rotation$ Solar activity is exected to %e lo# #it! a c!ance for
&-class '(1-(2) and a slig!t c!ance for 0-class '(3 or greater)
flare activity for 12-19 Jul as (egions 20+0 and 20+* rotate around
t!e #est lim% and (egion 20+1 continues its transit across t!e dis"$
2!ere is a slig!t c!ance for S1 '&inor) solar radiation storm
conditions for 0/ Jun-19 Jul due to t!e return of old (egion 20+1 $
2!e greater t!an 2 &e3 electron flux at geosync!ronous or%it is
exected to %e at normal levels #it! a c!ance for moderate levels
t!roug!out t!e outloo" eriod$
Geomagnetic field activity is exected to %e at 4uiet levels to G1
'&inor) geomagnetic storm conditions on 23 Jun due to t!e arrival of
t!e 19 Jun coronal mass e5ection '6&7)$ 8uiet to active levels are
exected on 24-2* Jun as 6&7 effects su%side in con5unction #it! t!e
onset of a negative olarity coronal !ole !ig! seed stream '69
9SS)$ 8uiet to active levels are exected on 2/ Jun due to continued
negative olarity 69 9SS influence$ :redominately 4uiet conditions
and a nominal solar #ind environment are exected for 21 Jun-10 Jul,
12-13 Jul, and 1+-19 Jul$ 8uiet to unsettled conditions are li"ely
on 11 Jul due to #ea" ositive olarity 69 9SS effects$ 8uiet to
unsettled conditions are exected on 14 Jul and 1/-11 Jul #it! 4uiet
to active conditions on 1* Jul due to influence from a negative
olarity 69 9SS$
; 21-day Sace <eat!er =utloo" 2a%le
; >ssued 2014-0/-23
;
; ?26 (adio Flux :lanetary -argest
; @ate 10$1 cm A >ndex A >ndex
2014 Jun 23 9* 1+ *
2014 Jun 24 9* 1* 4
2014 Jun 2* 100 1* 4
2014 Jun 2/ 10* + 4
2014 Jun 21 10* * 2
2014 Jun 2+ 110 * 2
2014 Jun 29 11* * 2
2014 Jun 30 11* * 2
2014 Jul 01 120 * 2
2014 Jul 02 12* * 2
2014 Jul 03 13* * 2
2014 Jul 04 130 * 2
2014 Jul 0* 130 * 2
2014 Jul 0/ 13* * 2
2014 Jul 01 140 * 2
2014 Jul 0+ 13* * 2
2014 Jul 09 130 * 2
2014 Jul 10 130 * 2
2014 Jul 11 12* + 3
2014 Jul 12 120 * 2
2014 Jul 13 120 * 2
2014 Jul 14 11* + 3
2014 Jul 1* 110 12 4
2014 Jul 1/ 10* + 3
2014 Jul 11 10* + 3
2014 Jul 1+ 10* * 2
2014 Jul 19 10* * 2