Oakland County Economic Outlook 2014 - 2016

OAKLAND COUNTY
ECONOMI C
OUTLOOK
2 0 1 4 2 0 1 6
May 1, 2014 Detroit Marriott Troy
Oakland Community College M-TEC
SM
Building Auburn Hills, Michigan
i3 Detroit Ferndale, Michigan
2014 Oakland County, Michigan
1 Presentation Review
Hosts and Sponsors of the 29th Annual
Oakland County
Economic Outlook Luncheon
Thursday, May 1, 2014
Hosts
L. Brooks Patterson
Oakland County Executive
John C. Carter
President
Chase, Middle Market Banking
Timothy R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Chancellor
Oakland Community College
Sponsors
Automation Alley
Bishop International Airport
Construction Association of Michigan
ITC Holdings
Kelly Services
Oakland County Workforce Development
Oakland University
Program
11:50 a.m. Welcome
L. Brooks Patterson
Master of Ceremonies
11:55 a.m. Lunch
12:30 p.m. Introduction
L. Brooks Patterson
Introduction of Speakers
John C. Carter
President
Michigan Middle Management Banking
Chase
Timothy R. Meyer, Ph.D.
Chancellor
Oakland Community College
12:40 p.m. George A. Fulton
Donald R. Grimes
Institute for Research on Labor,
Employment, and the Economy
at the University of Michigan
Oakland County Employment
Forecast Through 2016
1:30 p.m. Prize Drawings
Closing Statements
L. Brooks Patterson
2 20142016 Economic Outlook for Oakland County
Every other Monday youll learn about
our thriving communities, quality
arts & cultural events, active historic
preservation programs or how to take
advantage of our county-wide system
of linked trails and paths. And of course
youll learn about the latest in economic
development in Oakland County.
THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR OAKLAND COUNTY
IN 20142016
Presentation Review
Prepared by
George A. Fulton
Donald R. Grimes
Institute for Research on Labor, Employment, and the Economy
Prepared for
May 2014
The full report will be provided in J une on the Web (updated each year) at
www.AdvantageOakland.com or www.irlee.umich.edu/clmr
Average absolute forecast error 19862013: 1.7%
Forecast date: April 2013
Forecast 2013 Actual 2013
Unemployment rate 8.2% 8.1%
Consumer ination rate 1.7% 1.6%
In last years report, we forecast that the Oak-
land County economy would continue its healthy
recovery in 2013, but would back off some from
the red-hot pace it sustained in 2011 and 2012,
which averaged over 26,100 private-sector job
additions per year.
As we anticipated, the healthy recovery did con-

tinue, and private-sector job growth did slow, with
a smaller contribution of 16,630 jobs in 2013.
Our forecast was too low by 0.8 percent, how-

ever, or 8 private-sector workers per 1,000. This
was a much smaller miss than our average error
of 1.7 percent over the past twenty-eight years.
Our forecast was also too optimistic for health

services, which contributed only a handful of jobs
in 2013. The recent sluggishness in health care
hiring may well reect some caution as provid-
ers adjust to changes in funding and demand for
health care under the Affordable Care Act.
The two major industry divisions where job gains

most exceeded our expectations were profes-
sional and business services, and manufacturing.
Within professional and business services, the

largest shortfall in our forecast was in the busi-
ness support component. Within manufacturing,
our largest underestimate of job gain was in fab-
ricated metal products, particularly related to ma-
chine shops.
Our forecast of the unemployment rate was virtu-

ally spot-on, with the recorded rate of 8.1 percent
for 2013 coming in a mere tenth of a percentage
point lower than the 8.2 percent rate we projected
a year ago.
We were correct in forecasting job gains in all of

the major industry divisions except for nance,
which contrary to our expectation shrank in 2013,
largely due to a retraction in the local banking in-
dustry.
We were equally close to the bulls eye on our

forecast of the local ination rateagain with only
a tenth of a percentage point separating the out-
come for 2013 and our projection made a year
ago.
Table 1
Report Card: Track Record over the Years
Year of
Forecast
% Forecast Error
for Total Private J obs
Year of
Forecast
% Forecast Error
Year of
Forecast
% Forecast Error
1986 +1.4 1996 0.5 2006 +3.3
1987 +0.7 1997 +0.6 2007 0
1988 1.8 1998 +1.3 2008 +2.2
1989 1.9 1999 1.2 2009 +5.5
1990 +2.2 2000 +0.6 2010 1.6
1991 +3.9 2001 +1.9 2011 2.3
1992 2.0 2002 +2.5 2012 2.2
1993 +0.5 2003 +1.6 2013 0.8
1994 1.3 2004 +2.6
1995 +0.2 2005 +1.4
(Positive numbers indicate that the forecast was too high; negative numbers indicate that it was too low.)
NOTES
J ob losses were recorded in every year from 2006
to 2009 in Oakland, with the county economy hit-
ting bottom in the dreadful year of 2009.
This low point was a culmination of the national

Great Recession and bankruptcy proceedings for
both General Motors and Chrysler.
By 2011, Oakland had turned the corner sharply.

The economy added 24,412 jobs in 2011, its sec-
ond-best performance since 1994, and followed
that up with even a little stronger year in 2012,
adding 24,865 jobs then.
Among the major industry divisions in aggregate,

the top job producers in the recovery to date have
been professional and business services; trade,
transportation, and utilities; and manufacturing.
The two major industry divisions that have lost
jobs over the recovery period are government
and nancial activities.
The solid recovery continued in 2013, but with job

growth moderating somewhatto 15,734 addi-
tionsfrom its torrid pace of the prior two years.
The job gains for 2011 through 2013 have coun-
tered the loss suffered in 2009, and then some.
The continuing recovery in Oakland is supported

by an expanding U.S. economy, a recovering lo-
cal housing sector, and increasing vehicle sales,
with the Detroit Three fully participating. All of this
is backed by the countys strong economic fun-
damentals and forward-looking policy initiatives.
Figure 1
J ob Growth in Oakland County, 200613
Figure 1
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
18,494
5,801
20,433
59,663
24,865
1,113
24,412
15,734
J ob Growth
2006 2007 2008 2009 2011
*Estimate
2010 2013* 2012
Table 2
Twenty Industries with the Greatest J ob Gains in Oakland County, 201013
It is instructive to break out at a detailed industry
level the top job producers in Oaklands recovery
to date.
Among the twenty industries with the largest em-

ployment gains from 2010 to 2013, twelve of them
(60 percent) have wage levels above the average
for the county overall, most of them well above.
Indeed, six of the top eight industries (75 percent)
with the largest job gains over the period pay well
above average wages.
The professional and business services sector

contributes eight of the top twenty job providers,
and six of the twelve higher-paid providers.
The top twenty job providers, and the higher-

wage portion among them, are dominated by in-
dustries in professional and business services, as
well as in auto-related manufacturing and whole-
sale trade.
NOTES
The top four growth industries are associated with
the auto industry, both its white-collar (engineer-
ing services, headquarters, and testing laborato-
ries) and its manufacturing component.
The strength of the Oakland economy is tradi-

tionally concentrated in the area of white-collar
professional services, which includesin addi-
tion to engineering services, headquarters, and
testing laboratoriescomputer systems design,
management and technical consulting, and legal
services.
The higher-wage contributors to Oaklands job

growth also include three manufacturing indus-
triesautos, fabricated metals, and machinery;
two wholesale trade industriesdurable goods
and electronic markets; and specialty trade con-
tractors in construction.
Table 2
Industry
Change
201013
% Change
201013
Average Wage
2012
Total payroll jobs 65,011 10.6 $54,840
Engineering services 7,219 49.1 71,733
Transportation equipment manufacturing 5,417 38.9 89,429
Management of companies and enterprises 3,573 33.5 130,516
Testing laboratories 3,409 26.1 84,582
Full-service restaurants 3,234 16.1 17,055
Fabricated metals manufacturing 3,191 41.2 58,260
Services to buildings 3,176 38.7 23,761
Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 3,132 15.3 89,371
Business support services 2,230 56.0 42,616
Limited-service restaurants 2,107 14.4 12,836
Construction, specialty trade contractors 1,967 17.6 58,112
Transportation and warehousing 1,920 28.1 47,604
Nursing and residential care facilities 1,919 14.2 26,214
Computer systems design and related services 1,909 10.5 81,025
Machinery manufacturing 1,750 20.1 76,017
Management and technical consulting services 1,686 30.2 77,092
Social assistance 1,667 21.3 22,190
Warehouse clubs and supercenters 1,506 32.3 25,563
Legal services 1,384 13.2 80,549
Wholesale electronic markets, agents, brokers 1,308 28.3 79,244
The performance of Oaklands economy can also
be evaluated with unemployment as the mea-
sure, including the rate for the United States for
comparison.
The unemployment rate for Oakland County

peaked in 2009 at 12.9 percent. Over the follow-
ing four years, the jobless rate shrank with the
recovery in the local labor market, rst slightly
in 2010, to 12.4 percent, and then more sharp-
ly thereafter, gravitating down to 8.1 percent by
2013.
Oaklands jobless rate has been higher than the

U.S. rate so far during the recovery period, but
the gap has narrowed consistently and consider-
ably, from 3.6 percentage points in the nations
favor in 2009 to a much smaller 0.7 in 2013.
The last time the county unemployment rate was

lower than the U.S. rate was for an eleven-year
stretch from 1993 to 2003, inclusive.
NOTES
Figure 2
Unemployment Rates for Oakland County and for the United States, 200913
The decline in the rates observed for 2010 and
2011 was due in part to discouraged workers
leaving the labor force, which ofcially removes
them from the count of the unemployed. By
2012, movements in the local labor force turned
positive, rst minimally and then picking up steam
in 2013, as many more residents sought out ex-
panding job opportunities.
Figure 2
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.1
7.4
12.9
12.4
10.2
9.1
8.1
Oakland
United States
Table 3
Oakland County Compared with 35 U.S. Counties of Similar Size
NOTES
We ranked Oakland County and thirty-ve other
counties of similar size in the United States on a
series of measures that we judge to be indicators
of future economic prosperity. The data underly-
ing the rankings are provided in appendix B.
The counties of comparable size to Oakland had

populations between 900,000 and 1.6 million in
2013; Oaklands population was 1.232 million.
Many of these counties are among the most

prosperous in the nationa number of them are
among the small group of U.S. counties that have
the AAA bond rating with multiple rating agencies.
Oakland County is included in that group.
The thirty-six counties are also ordered by a sum-

mation of all of the rankings. This is not meant to
be a rigorous measure of overall ranking, but it is
at least suggestive of relative standing.
Oakland ranks eleventh overall among the thirty-

six counties on this basis, an impressive stand-
ing considering that a number of these counties
house some of the healthiest local economies in
the nation.
One of Oaklands advantages over many of the

other counties listed is its comparatively low cost
of living. In an attempt to account for this at least
partially in our measures, we have now adjusted
the median family income indicator to reect dif-
ferences among the counties in annual median
rent.
The measures used in this analysis are: (1) share

of the population aged 25 to 64 (prime working-
age population) with at least an associates de-
gree in 2012; (2) share of the population aged
17 and under who lived within families whose
income was below the poverty level in 2012; (3)
median family income adjusted for median rent
in 2012; (4) share of persons aged 65 and older
with income at least ve times the poverty line in
2012; and (5) share of employed county residents
working in professional and managerial occupa-
tions in 2012.
Whether we assess Oakland County with respect

to how it is positioned in key economic funda-
mentals across all regions of the United States,
or more restrictively here among many of the elite
local economies, it is hard not to see the county
thriving as time goes on.
The county is especially noteworthy for its share

of residents employed in professional and mana-
gerial occupations and for its residents high level
of education.
A lower number for the rank indicates a better po-

sition for the measure among the thirty-six coun-
ties; i.e., a rank of 1 is best and 36 is worst. Oak-
land County ranks between 7 and 16 across the
ve measures.
Table 3
Oakland County Compared with 35 U.S. Counties of Similar Size*
(Ranking based on selected indicators of prosperity)
High-Income
Associates Median Persons
Population Degree Child Family Aged 65 Managerial, Sum of Rank
County State 2013 or More Poverty Income or Older Professional Rankings of Sum
Fairfax VA 1,130,924 1 2 1 1 2 7 1
Montgomery MD 1,016,677 2 1 2 2 1 8 2
Middlesex MA 1,552,802 3 5 4 13 3 28 3
Bergen NJ 925,328 8 7 7 6 8 36 4
Faireld CT 939,904 9 8 5 5 12 39 5
Nassau NY 1,352,146 12 4 3 3 18 40 6
Westchester NY 968,802 10 9 6 4 11 40 6
DuPage IL 932,126 7 6 9 11 13 46 8
Wake NC 974,289 4 13 14 12 4 47 9
Hennepin MN 1,198,778 5 16 12 17 6 56 10
Oakland MI 1,231,640 11 10 13 16 7 57 11
Suffolk NY 1,499,738 22 3 8 7 20 60 12
Contra Costa CA 1,094,205 18 11 10 10 14 63 13
Alameda CA 1,578,891 15 15 11 14 9 64 14
Fulton GA 984,293 6 23 16 18 5 68 15
Travis TX 1,120,954 16 25 18 8 10 77 16
St. Louis MO 1,001,444 14 18 17 20 16 85 17
Honolulu HI 983,429 21 12 15 9 30 87 18
Allegheny PA 1,231,527 13 17 19 28 15 92 19
Mecklenburg NC 990,977 17 21 21 19 17 95 20
Salt Lake UT 1,079,721 25 14 22 21 22 104 21
Franklin OH 1,212,263 19 24 23 24 19 109 22
Erie PA 919,866 20 20 20 27 26 113 23
Palm Beach FL 1,372,171 24 22 27 15 29 117 24
Pinellas FL 929,048 28 19 25 30 25 127 25
Sacramento CA 1,462,131 32 27 24 22 24 129 26
Cuyahoga OH 1,263,154 27 26 26 32 21 132 27
Hillsborough FL 1,291,578 26 29 29 29 23 136 28
Pima AZ 996,554 30 30 28 23 28 139 29
Orange FL 1,225,267 23 28 32 26 32 141 30
Shelby TN 939,465 33 32 31 25 31 152 31
Milwaukee WI 956,023 29 31 30 33 33 156 32
Marion IN 928,281 31 33 33 34 34 165 33
Philadelphia PA 1,553,165 34 34 35 35 27 165 33
Fresno CA 955,272 35 35 34 31 35 170 35
Bronx NY 1,418,733 36 36 36 36 36 180 36
*All counties in the United States with a population between 900,000 and 1,600,000 in 2013.
Source: Compiled by Donald Grimes and George Fulton, University of Michigan, using data from the American Community
Survey 2012. Population data are from the Census Bureau population estimates program as of April 2014.
Figure 3
Growth in U.S. GDP, 201216
The best single measure of the U.S. economy is
ination-adjusted, or real, Gross Domestic Prod-
uct (GDP): all of the goods, services, and struc-
tures produced in the economy.
NOTES
In the next three years, steady consumption
growth, solid increases in investment, and a re-
covery in combined government purchases pro-
duce an accelerating economyfrom 2.6 percent
in 2014 to 3.3 percent in 2015 and 3.4 percent in
2016. If proven correct, the projections for 2015
and 2016 would be the rst annual readings of 3
percent or greater since 2005.
The U.S. economy is projected to add 2.2 mil-

lion payroll jobs in 2014, about the same as in
2013. As output accelerates over the following
two years, employment rises by 2.9 million jobs in
2015 and 3.3 million in 2016.
Economic growth of 2.8 percent in 2012 was the

strongest for a calendar year since the current re-
covery began.
2012
2.8
2013
1.9
2014
2.6
2016
0%
1%
2.5%
3.5%
0.5%
1.5%
2.0%
3.0%
2015
3.3
RSQE: March 2014
3.4
In 2013, a sharp deceleration in business invest-
ment early in the year and severe scal auster-
ity at the federal level contributed to signicantly
weaker growth, 1.9 percent for the calendar year.
The unemployment rate falls from an annual av-

erage of 7.4 percent for 2013 to 5.2 percent in
2016 (see gure 8).
Figure 4
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, 19902016
Total sales of U.S. light vehiclescars, minivans,
sport utility vehicles, crossovers, and pickup
truckswere in the range of 16 to 17+million
units sold annually from 1999 to 2007.
NOTES
In the forecast, we reach 16 million units in 2014.
Pent-up demand continues to be a signicant fac-

tor in the climb, with the average age of vehicles
on the road today still at record levels, and the
potential exists for higher participation of younger
drivers in the market as the economy continues
to improve.
Sales then retreated to 10.4 million units by 2009,

and have increased in excess of one million units
each year since then, reaching 15.5 million units
in 2013but still falling short of the 16 million
mark.
0
5
10
15
20
Millions
'91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15
RSQE: March 2014
16
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16
After moving up from 15.5 million units in 2013 to
16 million in 2014, U.S. light vehicle sales rise to
16.3 million in 2015 and increase further to 16.7
million by 2016.
We see the Detroit Threes share of the light ve-

hicle market drifting up from 44.4 percent in 2013
to 45 percent by 2016.
The projections for total sales and the Detroit

Threes share of that market, taken together, yield
our outlook for Detroit Three sales, which move
up progressively from 6.9 million units in 2013 to
7.5 million by 2016.
NOTES
This path reects a slower rate of increase over
the next three years compared with the last two.
Detroit Three sales rose by 500,000 units in each
of the years 2012 and 2013, only a little less for
a single year than the cumulative gain of 600,000
units over the next three years combined.
Figure 5
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, Total vs. Detroit Three, 201216
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Total
2012 2013 2015 2014
Millions
of Units
16.0
15.5
14.4
16.3
16.7
Detroit Three
6.4
6.9
7.1
7.3
7.5
2016
RSQE: March 2014
Annual % Detroit Three
market share
44.8
44.4
44.6
44.2
45.0
Figure 6
The Oakland County economy is now entering
its fth year of recovery since the previous reces-
sions low point at the end of 2009. Oakland has
burst out of the recession, adding almost 50,000
jobs in 2011 and 2012 combined, before settling
back to a still-solid gain of 15,734 jobs in 2013.
Over the period 2009 to 2013, the countys job

growth (10.4 percent) greatly outpaced both the
nations (3.9 percent) and the states (6.0 per-
cent).
J ob growth accelerates again in the following two

years, with the county adding 14,993 jobs in 2015
and 17,027 in 2016.
NOTES
That growth path generates an increase of almost
43,000 jobs over the next three calendar years
a solid gain of 2.1 percent per year.
We see the continuation of a healthy recov-

ery through 2016, extending its span to seven
years, but with the pace of growth moderating a
little more in 2014, with a projected increase of
10,917 jobs. (The annual data indicate a small
loss for 2010, but this is an artifact of calculating
job changes based on calendar-year averages,
which masks the upturn in employment at the be-
ginning of 2010.)
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
*Estimate
2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2010 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016
18,494
5,801
20,433
59,663
24,412
1,113
24,865
15,734
14,993
10,917
17,027
Oaklands recovery is supported by a U.S. econ-
omy that continues to expand through 2016, as
well as by the countys strong economic funda-
mentals.

So job growth continues its upward trajectory, but
how much ground are we making up in the recov-
ery through 2016 relative to what we lost in the
preceding severe decline?
From its peak employment quarter in the summer

of 2000 to its trough at the end of 2009, the coun-
ty lost 166,369 jobs, over half of them occurring
in the two-year period spanning 2008 and 2009.
From then to the end of 2016, we are forecasting

that the county will create an additional 50,231
jobs, thus cumulating to 122,172 job additions
from the bottom of the downturn through 2016
(71,941 +50,231).
NOTES
That would replenish 73.4 percent, or about three
in four, of the jobs lost from the summer of 2000
to the end of 2009. That would also return the
county to the job levels posted in mid-2003, three
years into the nine-year decline.
Figure 7
Total J obs in Oakland County, Seasonally Adjusted,
First Quarter of 2000 to Fourth Quarter of 2016
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
Forecast
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 00 01 15 16
Peak 00q3
*
Trough 09q4
*
13q3
*
16q4
*
Gain:
09q416q4 =122,172
(73.4% of jobs lost)
Loss:
00q309q4 =166,369
J obs
Then the recovery follows: from the low point in
the fourth quarter of 2009 to the end of the pub-
lished data in the third quarter of 2013, Oakland
gained 71,941 jobs.
Table 4
Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Major Industry Division, 201416*
Average
Annual
Estimate Forecast Employment Change Wage
2013 1314 1415 1516 1316 2012
TOTAL JOBS (Number of persons) 676,153 10,917 14,993 17,027 42,937 $54,840
(Annual percentage change) (2.4) (1.6) (2.2) (2.4)
TOTAL GOVERNMENT 44,762 -293 216 460 384 50,650
TOTAL PRIVATE 631,391 11,210 14,776 16,567 42,553 55,151
GOODS-PRODUCING 80,461 1,414 1,842 1,957 5,213 69,078
Natural resources, mining,
construction
20,860 722 931 979 2,632 61,163
Manufacturing 59,602 692 911 978 2,581 71,802
Fabricated metal products 10,939 313 254 257 824 58,260
Machinery 10,476 111 169 198 478 76,017
Transportation equipment
(motor vehicles)
19,344 220 236 256 712 89,429
Other manufacturing 18,842 48 251 269 567 57,900
PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING 550,929 9,796 12,935 14,610 37,340 53,154
Trade, transportation, and utilities 121,020 1,576 1,737 2,073 5,385 48,916
Wholesale trade 36,504 531 766 885 2,182 83,476
Retail trade 74,512 701 631 827 2,159 30,812
Transportation, warehousing,
and utilities
10,004 344 339 360 1,044 58,510
Information 15,546 -34 131 151 247 72,974
Financial activities 47,919 764 924 1,073 2,761 72,569
Finance and insurance 33,628 594 688 777 2,058 84,200
Real estate and rental and leasing 14,291 171 237 296 703 44,369
Professional and business services 175,133 4,024 6,016 6,376 16,416 67,972
Professional, scientic, and
technical
97,634 3,151 3,819 4,132 11,102 78,098
Management of companies and
enterprises
14,228 549 700 715 1,963 130,516
Administrative support and waste
management
63,271 324 1,498 1,530 3,351 39,480
Private education and health services 108,233 2,043 2,530 3,141 7,714 46,520
Private education services 11,385 393 418 571 1,382 35,203
Health care and social assistance 96,848 1,650 2,112 2,571 6,332 47,779
Leisure and hospitality 60,650 1,190 1,273 1,384 3,847 18,490
Other services 20,696 233 323 413 969 30,906
Unclassied 1,733 0 0 0 0 43,357
*Some subtotals do not add to totals due to rounding of annual average computations.
Table 4
Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Major Industry Division, 201416
NOTES
The projected job movements in total shown in g-
ure 6 are distributed among twenty-eight major in-
dustry divisions in table 4, and into 235 ner indus-
try divisions in appendix A.
Following a pick-up of 5,756 jobs in 2011, growth in

the manufacturing sector decelerated to 2,592 jobs
in 2012 and 2,237 in 2013. As the business cycle
matures, the job gains in the manufacturing sector
slip even further, to only 692 (1.2 percent) in 2014.
Over the next three years, the manufacturing sector
in Oakland County contributes only 2,581 jobs, or
one out of every seventeen jobs added in the coun-
ty over this period.
The government sector is forecast to lose 293 jobs

in 2014, a much reduced rate compared with the
prior seven years, when the government sector was
shrinking by almost 1,500 jobs a year on average.
Government nally turns around to add 216 jobs in
2015 and 460 in 2016. By the end of our forecast
period in 2016, the government sector accounts for
only 6.3 percent of the jobs in the county, down from
a peak of 8.3 percent in 2009 and the lowest share
since at least 1990, when our data series starts.
The aggregate industry category of natural re-

sources, mining, and construction gains 2,632 jobs
over the next three years, almost all of them in the
construction industry, as natural resources and min-
ing together add only 11 jobs. All components of
the construction industry enjoy relatively strong job
growth, with the greatest number of additional jobs
(984) being created among building equipment con-
tractors such as plumbing, electrical, and HVAC
contractors.
The step-up in the government sector largely re-

ects an improvement in the job prospects for K-12
education. J ob losses in K-12 education are fore-
cast to continue in 2014 but to dwindle by only 52
workers, before turning around to add 301 jobs in
2015 and 463 in 2016.
Employment in local government administration de-

clines over the next three years, but at a diminishing
rate, as revenue growth continues to be relatively
weak.
Private-sector job gains in 2013 slipped to 16,629

from the extraordinarily large additions recorded in
2011 and 2012. J ob growth slows further in 2014,
to 11,210, before accelerating to 14,776 in 2015
and 16,567 in 2016. Over the three-year forecast
period, the private sector contributes 42,553 job ad-
ditions.
By 2016, the manufacturing sector accounts for only

8.6 percent of the jobs in the county, down from 16
percent in 1990 and 14 percent in 2000. We expect
that its share will continue to slip beyond 2016.
Leading the early stages of the recovery was trans-

portation equipment (motor vehicle) manufacturing,
which added 3,037 jobs (21.8 percent) in 2011 and
2,290 (13.5 percent) in 2012. In 2013, however, the
local motor vehicle manufacturing industry is esti-
mated to have gained only 89 jobs, and while we
are forecasting that job growth in the industry will
accelerate during the forecast period, it will be at a
modest pace of 1.1 to 1.3 percent a year, accumu-
lating to a job gain of only 712 over the next three
years.
By 2016, transportation equipment manufactur-

ing accounts for only 2.8 percent of the jobs in the
county, down from 6.2 percent in 1990 and 6 per-
cent in 2000.
Some of the other manufacturing industries that are

forecast to see job growth over the next three years
are fabricated metals (824), machinery (478), plas-
tics (391), and chemicals (182). Printing, nonmetal-
lic mineral products, primary metals, and computer
and electronic product manufacturing lose jobs over
the same period.
Wholesale trade sees accelerating job growth over

the next three years, accumulating to a gain of
2,182 jobs, with the industry paying relatively high
average wages ($83,476 in 2012).
Table 4
Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Major Industry Division, 201416
NOTES
Retail trade, a much larger and generally lower-
paying sector than wholesale trade, adds 2,159
jobs over the next three years. J ob gains are con-
centrated in motor vehicle and parts dealers (517),
building material and garden supply stores (468),
clothing stores (422), and warehouse clubs and
supercenters (308). Furniture stores, health and
personal care stores, gasoline stations, department
stores, and non-store retailers all lose a relatively
small number of jobs over the forecast period.
J ob growth in professional services is concentrated

in engineering services (4,534) and testing labora-
tories (2,293) over the forecast period. Along with
company management, which adds 1,963 jobs over
the next three years, these industries form the core
of the white-collar auto industry. All of them are
forecast to add many more jobs than the blue-col-
lar factory-based part of the auto industry. Indeed,
Oakland Countys auto industry is the best example
of how the industry is converting from a factory-
based industry to an ofce-based enterprise.
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities see strong

job gains over the next three years, accumulating to
1,044 jobs or a gain of 10.4 percent. All of these ad-
ditions occur in transportation; the utilities industry
is forecast to add only 5 jobs and warehousing is
expected to decline.
Between 2009 and 2013, employment in profes-

sional services exploded by 21,588 jobs (28.4 per-
cent). This aggregate industry category is the heart
of the knowledge economy, and in Oakland County
it is closely identied with the motor vehicle indus-
try. Over the next three years, we expect that this
industry category will continue to grow, albeit at a
somewhat more subdued pace, adding 11,102 jobs
(11.4 percent).
Only modest job growth is projected for the infor-

mation sector over the next three years (247 jobs
or 1.6 percent), as technological change reduces
the need for workers in newspaper publishing. The
other components of the information sector see only
small job increases.
The nance and insurance industry contributes

2,058 jobs over the next three years, as commercial
banking and other lending establishments, as well
as securities and investment banking, add jobs at a
healthy clip. Employment in the insurance compo-
nent of this industry grows at a modest pace.
The real estate and rental and leasing industry sees

moderate growth over the next three years (703 jobs
or 4.9 percent), as the real estate industry continues
to recover. Note that most real estate agents are
self-employed and thus are not included in these
statistics.
Some other professional service industries that are

expected to see relatively strong job growth are
computer systems design (1,672) and legal servic-
es (796).
Administrative and waste management services

gain 3,351 jobs over the next three years, with most
of the jobs being added in employment services.
Employment in private education services increas-

es by 1,382 jobs over the forecast period. Most of
these job gains occur in trade and technical schools
as opposed to private elementary and secondary
schools or private four-year colleges.
Health care and social assistance adds 6,332 jobs

over the forecast period. Within this sector, the larg-
est job gains occur in hospitals (1,217), ofces of
physicians (896), home health care services (853),
community care facilities for the elderly (744), and
individual and family services (715). Efforts to re-
duce the growth in health care spending, particu-
larly Medicare payments, could reduce the rate of
growth in health care employment. On the other
hand, the aging of the baby boom generation en-
sures that the demand for health care services will
increase.
The leisure and hospitality services category gains

3,847 jobs (6.3 percent) over the next three years.
Full-service restaurants add 2,047 jobs (8.8 per-
cent), and limited-service restaurants (i.e., fast-food
restaurants) contribute 706 jobs (4.2 percent). Em-
ployment in accommodations (including hotels and
motels) grows by 347 jobs (9.6 percent).
The other services division, which includes a wide

variety of industries, grows by 969 jobs over the
forecast period. The largest gains are in member-
ship organizations (558) and personal care services
(262).

In comparing the composition of the twenty in-
dustries having the largest employment gains be-
tween the historical period from 2010 to 2013 and
the forecast period from 2013 to 2016, we nd
both consistencies and changing patterns.
As in the earlier period, job gains among high-

er-wage industries in the forecast period still
dominate and the counts match: in both periods,
twelve of the industries have wage levels above
the average for the county overall, including six of
the top eight.
Several industries in the professional and busi-

ness services sector continue to have a promi-
nent presence in the forecast period, particularly
at the top of the rankings, but there is also more
diffusion of the recovery into other industries. In
particular, health services are more represented
in the top twenty job providers in the forecast pe-
riod than in the prior three years.
Other newcomers to the list are banking, and el-

ementary and secondary schools. The most dra-
matic change in position occurs with employment
services (temporary help), which is not on the
earlier list but is forecast to be the second-largest
job provider over the next three years.
NOTES
Four of the top ve industries for job creation are
the same in both periods: engineering services,
testing laboratories, headquarters activity, and
full-service restaurants. Engineering services is
the No. 1 job creator in both periods by a signi-
cant margin.
Table 5
The more advanced stages of the recovery do
usher in some differences as well. Perhaps
most notable, auto manufacturing makes a much
smaller contribution in the forecast period, and its
ranking slips from 2 in the earlier period to 18 in
the later period. Fabricated metals manufactur-
ing retreats from 6 to 16. This is a typical pattern
for manufacturing as a recovery moves into its
more mature stages.
Oakland County has been investing for years in

many of the industries that are becoming increas-
ingly prominent in the New Economy, particularly
those associated with professional and business
services as well as health services.
Table 5
Industry
Change
201316
% Change
201316
Average Wage
2012
Total payroll jobs 42,937 6.4 $54,840
Engineering services 4,534 20.7 71,733
Employment services 2,378 7.4 42,190
Testing laboratories 2,293 13.9 84,582
Full-service restaurants 2,047 8.8 17,055
Management of companies and enterprises 1,963 13.8 130,516
Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 1,827 7.7 89,371
Construction, specialty trade contractors 1,761 13.4 58,112
Computer systems design and related services 1,672 8.3 81,025
Nursing and residential care facilities 1,543 10.0 26,214
Hospitals 1,217 3.8 56,981
Credit intermediation and related activities 1,122 7.5 76,762
Social assistance 1,045 11.0 22,190
Transportation and warehousing 1,039 11.9 47,604
Ofces of physicians 896 6.0 76,865
Home health care services 853 9.1 32,554
Fabricated metals manufacturing 824 7.5 58,260
Legal services 796 6.7 80,549
Transportation equipment manufacturing 712 3.7 89,429
Local government, elementary and secondary schools 712 3.4 51,828
Limited-service restaurants 706 4.2 12,836
Figure 8
The solid job growth we are projecting for Oakland
County is accompanied by an unemployment rate
that continues to decline over the forecast period,
from 8.1 percent in 2013 to 6.4 percent in 2014,
then falling further to 5.8 percent in 2015 and 5.0
percent in 2016.
Oaklands unemployment rate was 3.6 percent-

age points above the U.S. rate in 2009 (12.9
percent versus 9.3 percent), but the gap has nar-
rowed consistently and dramatically since then,
to seven-tenths of a percentage point in 2013 (8.1
percent versus 7.4 percent).
NOTES
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
9.3
9.6
8.9
8.1
7.4
12.9
12.4
10.2
9.1
8.1
6.5
6.4
5.9
5.8
5.2
5.0
Oakland
United States
Forecast
The drop of 3.1 percentage points over the three-
year period brings the jobless rate down into the
neighborhood of where it was in 2002, in the ear-
lier stages of the economic decline of the 2000s.
The county labor force grew briskly in 2013, as

increasingly more job seekers were drawn in by
improving job opportunities. We are forecasting
that the labor force will continue to see solid ex-
pansion through 2016. If, instead, the labor force
expands at a slower rate than we anticipate, then
the unemployment rate would fall more rapidly
with the employment gains we are projecting.
We are forecasting that the nation and the county

will switch positions in 2014, with the county job-
less rate falling to a tenth of a percentage point
below the U.S. rate, and Oakland maintaining a
one- to two-tenths of a percentage point advan-
tage in 2015 and 2016. The county rate was con-
sistently lower than the U.S. rate from 1993 to
2003, before the worst of the extended downturn
in Michigan locked in.
Figure 9
Ination Rate, Detroit CPI, 201216
NOTES
Local ination is measured here by the growth
rate of the Detroit Consumer Price Index (CPI),
representing the Detroit metro area, as consumer
price data are not compiled for the county in iso-
lation.
Local consumer price ination remains in check

for the next three years, settling in under 2 per-
cent for each year: 1.1 percent in 2014, 1.5 per-
cent in 2015, and 1.8 percent in 2016, following a
rate of 1.6 percent for 2013.
Our expectation of subdued growth in energy

prices also contributes to the moderate ination
prole going forward.
Local ination runs two- to three-tenths of a per-

centage point below the U.S. rate throughout the
forecast period.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
1.6
2.0
1.5
1.1
1.8
2013 2015 2014 2016 2012
A domestic labor market where wage gains exert
only modest pressure on prices, along with slug-
gish growth in import prices, restrains ination
throughout the forecast period.

Appendix A
Forecast of Employment in Oakland County by Detailed Industry Division
Average
Annual
Estimate Forecast Wage
2013 2014 2015 2016 2012
TOTAL PAYROLL J OBS (Number of persons) 676,153 687,070 702,063 719,090 $54,840
(Annual percentage change) (2.4) (1.6) (2.2) (2.4) N.A
TOTAL GOVERNMENT 44,762 44,470 44,686 45,146 50,650
Federal government 4,698 4,665 4,691 4,730 66,567
Postal Service 3,528 3,530 3,571 3,621 60,131
Federal government NEC 1,170 1,136 1,120 1,109 85,033
State and local government 40,064 39,804 39,995 40,416 48,820
Local libraries 532 537 546 556 20,047
Local education and health services 23,153 23,110 23,409 23,871 50,794
Elementary and secondary schools 20,913 20,861 21,162 21,624 51,828
Other education and health services 2,240 2,249 2,247 2,247 41,168
Local public administration 12,034 11,845 11,752 11,701 46,391
State and other local government 4,345 4,312 4,288 4,288 48,321
TOTAL PRIVATE 631,391 642,601 657,377 673,944 55,151
GOODS-PRODUCING 80,461 81,876 83,717 85,674 69,078
Natural resources and mining 593 596 598 604 33,506
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 467 472 471 475 22,264
Mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction 126 125 127 130 73,850
Construction 20,267 20,986 21,915 22,887 62,049
Construction of buildings 5,414 5,611 5,830 6,063 69,317
Residential 2,719 2,824 2,968 3,138 64,771
Nonresidential 2,695 2,787 2,861 2,925 74,178
Heavy and civil engineering construction 1,684 1,728 1,794 1,894 69,805
Utility systems 780 808 828 854 57,196
Land subdivision 203 195 215 258 71,724
Highway, street, and bridge construction 671 701 728 757 85,287
Other heavy construction 29 25 23 25 48,019
Specialty trade contractors 13,169 13,647 14,290 14,930 58,112
Building foundation and exterior 1,915 1,943 2,039 2,133 48,743
Building equipment 7,758 8,070 8,416 8,742 64,948
Building finishing 1,990 2,035 2,092 2,148 44,968
Other specialty trade contractors 1,505 1,599 1,744 1,907 53,677
Manufacturing 59,602 60,294 61,205 62,183 71,802
Food 838 854 874 895 25,896
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing 379 403 416 430 16,572
Food manufacturing NEC 459 452 458 466 32,993
Textile products 126 127 132 137 28,929
Wood products 118 128 133 139 35,370
Paper products 212 212 219 223 57,021
Printing and related support activities 1,787 1,752 1,709 1,669 51,226
Chemicals 2,732 2,794 2,854 2,915 85,324
Plastics and rubber products 3,173 3,255 3,413 3,564 49,401
Nonmetallic mineral products 984 965 965 968 52,687
Primary metals 1,421 1,360 1,334 1,317 56,863
Fabricated metals 10,939 11,252 11,506 11,763 58,260
Forging and stamping 940 999 1,034 1,066 54,181
Architectural and structural metals 710 696 697 698 51,129
Machine shops and threaded products 4,071 4,259 4,355 4,450 65,370
Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals 2,093 2,161 2,270 2,380 48,609
Other fabricated metals 1,614 1,620 1,629 1,639 62,563
Fabricated metals NEC 1,509 1,516 1,523 1,531 56,186
Appendix A continued
Average
Annual
2013 2014 2015 2016 2012
Machinery 10,476 10,587 10,756 10,954 $76,017
Industrial machinery 722 733 741 750 73,917
Commercial and service industry machinery 492 490 505 520 69,264
Metalworking machinery 5,299 5,341 5,362 5,400 74,256
Turbine and power transmission equipment 555 558 564 572 63,643
Other general purpose machinery 3,072 3,127 3,235 3,351 84,883
Machinery NEC 337 338 349 360 57,161
Computer and electronic products 2,528 2,397 2,389 2,385 64,252
Semiconductors and electronic components 1,451 1,347 1,341 1,336 58,655
Electronic instruments 797 770 764 760 68,147
Computer and electronic products NEC 280 280 285 289 90,328
Electrical equipment, appliances, components 1,075 1,080 1,097 1,113 61,900
Transportation equipment 19,344 19,565 19,801 20,056 89,429
Motor vehicle bodies and trailers 798 858 918 977 108,348
Aerospace products and parts 1,098 1,121 1,144 1,164 71,565
Transportation equipment NEC 17,448 17,585 17,739 17,915 89,654
Furniture and related products 437 433 439 443 47,482
Miscellaneous manufacturing 2,555 2,608 2,650 2,693 52,274
Medical equipment and supplies 938 959 983 1,007 48,838
Other miscellaneous manufacturing 1,616 1,649 1,668 1,686 54,324
Manufacturing NEC 856 925 932 948 49,186
PRIVATE SERVICE-PROVIDING 550,929 560,725 573,660 588,270 53,154
Trade, transportation, and utilities 121,020 122,595 124,332 126,405 48,916
Wholesale trade 36,504 37,034 37,800 38,685 83,476
Merchant wholesalers, durable goods 23,611 24,121 24,718 25,438 89,371
Motor vehicles and parts 4,934 5,109 5,299 5,528 85,466
Commercial equipment 6,002 6,020 6,098 6,206 106,006
Office equipment 1,051 1,039 1,040 1,047 64,817
Computers and software 3,001 2,976 2,970 2,980 140,290
Medical equipment 1,374 1,418 1,487 1,564 76,621
Commercial equipment NEC 575 587 601 616 73,413
Electric goods 4,033 4,136 4,237 4,354 95,124
Machinery and supply 4,663 4,808 4,948 5,126 83,502
Industrial machinery 3,230 3,323 3,454 3,607 83,738
Machinery and supply NEC 1,433 1,485 1,493 1,519 82,926
Merchant wholesalers, durable goods NEC 3,979 4,046 4,136 4,224 68,958
Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods 6,956 7,054 7,244 7,430 66,820
Paper and paper products 399 409 414 416 74,776
Druggists goods 1,956 1,987 2,079 2,170 61,271
Groceries and related products 1,504 1,516 1,562 1,602 49,382
Chemicals 1,063 1,102 1,125 1,151 98,728
Miscellaneous nondurable goods 1,241 1,251 1,271 1,292 64,321
Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods NEC 793 789 794 798 72,071
Wholesale electronic markets, agents, brokers 5,936 5,860 5,838 5,818 79,244
Retail trade 74,512 75,213 75,844 76,672 30,812
Motor vehicle and parts dealers 8,976 9,168 9,333 9,494 57,270
Furniture and home furnishings stores 2,490 2,460 2,456 2,458 31,525
Electronics and appliance stores 4,258 4,253 4,292 4,350 43,011
Building material and garden supply dealers 6,108 6,289 6,435 6,577 36,956
Food and beverage stores 10,779 10,843 10,901 10,996 23,185
Health and personal care stores 5,574 5,547 5,542 5,539 35,005
Average
Annual
2013 2014 2015 2016 2012
Retail trade (continued)
Gasoline stations 1,879 1,861 1,850 1,843 $17,033
Clothing and clothing accessories stores 8,429 8,554 8,664 8,852 19,115
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores 4,061 4,070 4,078 4,106 22,645
General merchandise stores 16,001 16,159 16,259 16,366 22,109
Department stores, except discount 4,194 4,224 4,202 4,193 24,334
Discount department stores 4,582 4,551 4,561 4,570 18,625
Warehouse clubs and supercenters 6,170 6,307 6,394 6,478 25,563
All other general merchandise stores 1,055 1,077 1,102 1,126 15,240
Miscellaneous store retailers 5,021 5,097 5,135 5,200 32,085
Nonstore retailers 936 911 900 891 58,299
Transportation and warehousing 8,756 9,093 9,434 9,795 47,604
Truck transportation 2,593 2,765 2,921 3,080 51,663
Couriers and messengers 1,420 1,422 1,439 1,460 47,137
Warehousing and storage 1,343 1,315 1,298 1,289 58,441
Transportation and warehousing NEC 3,400 3,591 3,775 3,966 39,885
Utilities 1,248 1,255 1,254 1,253 133,249
Information 15,546 15,512 15,643 15,793 72,974
Publishing (except Internet) 3,749 3,721 3,706 3,701 88,172
Newspaper, book, and directory publishers 1,882 1,822 1,794 1,772 66,554
Software publishers 1,867 1,898 1,912 1,929 109,342
Motion pictures and sound recording 1,985 1,940 1,946 1,956 29,179
Motion picture and video production 427 412 398 385 72,883
Motion picture and video exhibition 1,359 1,329 1,347 1,368 10,991
Motion pictures and sound recording NEC 199 198 201 203 62,214
Broadcasting (except Internet) 1,428 1,444 1,474 1,504 89,826
Telecommunications 5,861 5,871 5,924 5,983 73,780
Wireless telecommunications carriers 948 915 908 904 87,718
Telecommunications NEC 4,913 4,956 5,016 5,079 70,657
Data processing, hosting, and related services 1,993 1,950 1,998 2,049 69,516
Information NEC 529 587 594 600 102,330
Financial activities 47,919 48,683 49,607 50,680 72,569
Finance and insurance 33,628 34,222 34,909 35,686 84,200
Credit intermediation and related activities 15,042 15,401 15,772 16,164 76,762
Depository credit intermediation 9,289 9,330 9,431 9,581 70,519
Commercial banking 6,696 6,739 6,824 6,956 73,766
Depository credit intermediation NEC 2,593 2,591 2,606 2,626 59,228
Nondepository credit intermediation 5,097 5,379 5,589 5,768 94,296
Real estate credit intermediation 1,904 2,078 2,197 2,303 78,405
Nondepository credit intermediation NEC 3,193 3,301 3,392 3,465 101,476
Activities related to credit intermediation 656 693 753 815 66,275
Mortgage and nonmortgage loan brokers 348 373 415 458 78,832
Activities related to credit intermediation NEC 308 319 338 357 53,740
Securities, commodity contracts, investments 4,366 4,467 4,639 4,841 137,234
Insurance carriers and related activities 14,174 14,308 14,452 14,636 76,729
Insurance carriers 7,656 7,670 7,686 7,727 83,022
Direct property and casualty insurers 2,002 2,014 2,035 2,058 88,540
Insurance carriers NEC 5,654 5,656 5,650 5,669 80,718
Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related 6,518 6,638 6,767 6,909 69,217
Insurance agencies and brokerages 4,709 4,827 4,932 5,048 72,018
Other insurance-related activities 1,809 1,812 1,834 1,862 62,126
Finance and insurance NEC 46 46 46 45 76,911
Average
Annual
2013 2014 2015 2016 2012
Real estate and rental and leasing 14,291 14,461 14,698 14,994 $44,369
Real estate 11,123 11,237 11,458 11,721 44,026
Lessors of real estate 5,257 5,263 5,328 5,397 40,010
Offices of real estate agents and brokers 1,252 1,300 1,406 1,520 45,856
Activities related to real estate 4,615 4,674 4,724 4,804 47,689
Rental and leasing services 2,746 2,793 2,793 2,810 41,294
Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets 422 432 447 463 76,828
Professional and business services 175,133 179,157 185,173 191,549 67,972
Professional and technical services 97,634 100,785 104,604 108,736 78,098
Legal services 11,884 12,130 12,403 12,680 80,549
Accounting and bookkeeping services 5,996 5,956 5,977 6,032 63,567
Architectural and engineering services 39,995 41,869 44,366 47,081 77,127
Architectural services 1,185 1,230 1,295 1,375 74,662
Engineering services 21,920 23,226 24,796 26,454 71,733
Testing laboratories 16,492 16,980 17,824 18,785 84,582
Engineering services NEC 398 433 451 467 60,065
Specialized design services 2,501 2,644 2,800 3,007 87,347
Computer systems design and related services 20,025 20,540 21,108 21,697 81,025
Management and technical consulting services 7,270 7,432 7,598 7,754 77,092
Scientific research and development services 1,304 1,345 1,393 1,440 186,215
Advertising, PR, and related services 4,321 4,395 4,384 4,370 79,605
Other professional and technical services 4,338 4,474 4,576 4,675 50,860
Management of companies and enterprises 14,228 14,777 15,477 16,191 130,516
Administrative support and waste management 63,271 63,595 65,093 66,623 39,480
Administrative and support services 62,180 62,562 64,091 65,631 39,251
Office administrative services 3,637 3,701 3,848 4,031 60,751
Employment services 32,031 32,285 33,375 34,409 42,190
Business support services 6,211 6,335 6,468 6,606 42,616
Investigation and security services 5,257 5,277 5,264 5,264 23,705
Services to buildings and dwellings 11,373 11,239 11,337 11,456 23,761
Other support services 2,387 2,410 2,468 2,522 66,046
Administrative and support services NEC 1,284 1,314 1,332 1,343 43,773
Waste management and remediation services 1,091 1,033 1,002 991 53,486
Private education and health services 108,233 110,276 112,806 115,947 46,520
Education services 11,385 11,778 12,196 12,767 35,203
Elementary and secondary schools 4,141 4,265 4,368 4,541 36,085
Colleges and universities 2,356 2,303 2,309 2,376 37,460
Education services NEC 4,888 5,210 5,519 5,851 32,921
Health care and social assistance 96,848 98,498 100,609 103,180 47,779
Ambulatory health care 40,119 40,819 41,637 42,646 53,766
Offices of physicians 14,856 15,085 15,375 15,752 76,865
Offices of dentists 5,781 5,820 5,875 5,955 47,571
Offices of other health practitioners 4,192 4,271 4,354 4,437 41,078
Outpatient care centers 2,546 2,539 2,549 2,569 52,843
Medical and diagnostic laboratories 2,236 2,267 2,327 2,445 47,737
Home health care services 9,353 9,632 9,916 10,207 32,554
Other ambulatory health care services 1,154 1,205 1,242 1,282 38,877
Hospitals 31,834 32,150 32,569 33,051 56,981
Nursing and residential care facilities 15,398 15,771 16,302 16,941 26,214
Nursing care facilities 4,861 4,899 5,035 5,230 30,643
Residential mental health facilities 2,919 2,949 3,032 3,138 23,664
Average
Annual
2013 2014 2015 2016 2012
Nursing and residential care facilities (continued)
Community care facilities for the elderly 5,978 6,206 6,452 6,722 24,802
Other residential care facilities 1,641 1,718 1,783 1,851 22,050
Social assistance 9,497 9,757 10,101 10,542 22,190
Individual and family services 4,704 4,859 5,092 5,419 23,194
Child day care services 3,473 3,540 3,601 3,662 18,089
Social assistance NEC 1,319 1,358 1,408 1,461 29,112
Leisure and hospitality 60,650 61,841 63,114 64,497 18,490
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 8,792 8,881 9,102 9,348 32,815
Spectator sports 1,064 1,088 1,127 1,157 99,307
Golf courses and country clubs 2,004 1,984 2,041 2,110 24,481
Fitness and recreational sports centers 3,815 3,873 3,956 4,063 17,011
Arts, entertainment, and recreation NEC 1,909 1,936 1,978 2,017 35,887
Accommodation and food services 51,859 52,959 54,011 55,149 16,085
Accommodation 3,617 3,748 3,855 3,963 23,313
Food services and drinking places 48,242 49,211 50,156 51,186 15,551
Restaurants and other eating places 42,556 43,526 44,417 45,391 15,209
Full-service restaurants 23,349 24,061 24,725 25,396 17,055
Limited-service restaurants 16,707 16,981 17,170 17,412 12,836
Cafeterias, grill buffets, and buffets 436 442 460 475 17,358
Snack and nonalcoholic beverage bars 2,064 2,041 2,061 2,108 14,051
Special food services 3,761 3,717 3,733 3,751 19,328
Drinking places, alcoholic beverages 1,925 1,969 2,007 2,044 15,119
Other services 20,696 20,928 21,252 21,665 30,906
Repair and maintenance 5,329 5,396 5,435 5,489 40,597
Automotive repair and maintenance 3,752 3,802 3,833 3,876 38,768
Repair and maintenance NEC 1,577 1,593 1,602 1,613 45,052
Personal and laundry services 7,851 7,985 8,111 8,267 23,727
Personal care services 4,657 4,714 4,805 4,919 22,140
Personal and laundry services NEC 3,194 3,271 3,306 3,348 26,124
Membership associations and organizations 6,019 6,125 6,336 6,577 34,001
Private households 1,496 1,423 1,370 1,332 19,849
Private unclassified service-providing
1,733 1,733 1,733 1,733 43,357
Addendum

Unemployment rate
8.1 6.4 5.8 5.0
Appendix B
Oakland County Compared with 35 U.S. Counties of Similar Size*
Indicator Values
High-Income
Associates Median Persons
Population Degree Child Family Aged 65 Managerial,
County State 2013 or More Poverty Income or Older Professional
Fairfax VA 1,130,924 65.1% 7.8% $104,959 61.6% 55.0%
Montgomery MD 1,016,677 63.4% 7.0% 94,832 54.4% 56.1%
Middlesex MA 1,552,802 61.1% 9.4% 88,309 37.0% 52.3%
Bergen NJ 925,328 55.8% 10.1% 83,693 42.2% 46.5%
Faireld CT 939,904 55.4% 11.0% 86,922 43.0% 44.5%
Nassau NY 1,352,146 53.7% 9.0% 91,095 44.1% 41.6%
Westchester NY 968,802 54.8% 12.7% 84,825 43.6% 44.9%
DuPage IL 932,126 56.8% 10.1% 81,645 37.6% 44.4%
Wake NC 974,289 58.1% 15.5% 70,852 37.5% 48.8%
Hennepin MN 1,198,778 58.0% 17.9% 71,627 32.3% 47.8%
Oakland MI 1,231,640 54.4% 14.4% 71,047 32.8% 46.7%
Suffolk NY 1,499,738 45.5% 8.5% 81,669 41.1% 38.5%
Contra Costa CA 1,094,205 48.8% 14.9% 73,013 39.3% 43.3%
Alameda CA 1,578,891 51.8% 17.4% 72,746 34.4% 46.5%
Fulton GA 984,293 56.8% 25.0% 64,265 31.9% 48.4%
Travis TX 1,120,954 50.8% 26.4% 60,464 40.9% 45.1%
St. Louis MO 1,001,444 51.8% 19.1% 63,601 28.6% 42.1%
Honolulu HI 983,429 45.8% 15.3% 64,761 39.4% 35.3%
Allegheny PA 1,231,527 53.0% 18.6% 60,308 22.3% 43.3%
Mecklenburg NC 990,977 50.6% 21.8% 57,777 29.5% 41.8%
Salt Lake UT 1,079,721 42.0% 17.1% 57,108 28.0% 37.7%
Franklin OH 1,212,263 47.1% 25.2% 52,783 27.0% 41.2%
Erie PA 919,866 46.9% 20.5% 57,895 22.5% 36.9%
Palm Beach FL 1,372,171 42.6% 22.5% 48,291 34.3% 35.6%
Pinellas FL 929,048 40.3% 20.2% 49,022 21.1% 37.0%
Sacramento CA 1,462,131 37.6% 27.1% 50,580 27.4% 37.0%
Cuyahoga OH 1,263,154 40.6% 26.9% 48,970 20.2% 37.9%
Hillsborough FL 1,291,578 41.3% 27.2% 46,445 21.6% 37.2%
Pima AZ 996,554 38.3% 29.2% 46,638 27.4% 36.0%
Orange FL 1,225,267 42.7% 27.2% 44,183 23.5% 34.8%
Shelby TN 939,465 37.4% 32.8% 45,295 25.9% 35.0%
Milwaukee WI 956,023 38.9% 32.4% 46,152 19.8% 34.7%
Marion IN 928,281 38.2% 32.8% 42,623 19.0% 32.8%
Philadelphia PA 1,553,165 32.4% 36.8% 33,787 16.8% 36.5%
Fresno CA 955,272 26.8% 40.8% 34,918 20.3% 28.3%
Bronx NY 1,418,733 26.8% 44.5% 24,292 15.4% 23.8%
*All counties in the United States with a population between 900,000 and 1,600,000 in 2013.
Source: Compiled by Donald Grimes and George Fulton, University of Michigan, using data from the American Community
Survey 2012. Population data are from the Census Bureau population estimates program as of April 2014.

Oakland County Economic Outlook 2014 - 2016

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Oakland County Economic Outlook 2014 - 2016

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OAKLAND COUNTY

As we anticipated, the healthy recovery did con-

Our forecast was too low by 0.8 percent, how-

Our forecast was also too optimistic for health

The two major industry divisions where job gains

Within professional and business services, the

Our forecast of the unemployment rate was virtu-

We were correct in forecasting job gains in all of

We were equally close to the bulls eye on our

This low point was a culmination of the national

By 2011, Oakland had turned the corner sharply.

Among the major industry divisions in aggregate,

The solid recovery continued in 2013, but with job

The continuing recovery in Oakland is supported

Among the twenty industries with the largest em-

The professional and business services sector

The top twenty job providers, and the higher-

The strength of the Oakland economy is tradi-

The higher-wage contributors to Oaklands job

The unemployment rate for Oakland County

Oaklands jobless rate has been higher than the

The last time the county unemployment rate was

The counties of comparable size to Oakland had

Many of these counties are among the most

The thirty-six counties are also ordered by a sum-

Oakland ranks eleventh overall among the thirty-

One of Oaklands advantages over many of the

The measures used in this analysis are: (1) share

Whether we assess Oakland County with respect

The county is especially noteworthy for its share

A lower number for the rank indicates a better po-

The U.S. economy is projected to add 2.2 mil-

Economic growth of 2.8 percent in 2012 was the

The unemployment rate falls from an annual av-

Pent-up demand continues to be a signicant fac-

Sales then retreated to 10.4 million units by 2009,

We see the Detroit Threes share of the light ve-

The projections for total sales and the Detroit

Over the period 2009 to 2013, the countys job

J ob growth accelerates again in the following two

We see the continuation of a healthy recov-

18 20142016 Economic Outlook for Oakland County

From its peak employment quarter in the summer

From then to the end of 2016, we are forecasting

Following a pick-up of 5,756 jobs in 2011, growth in

The government sector is forecast to lose 293 jobs

The aggregate industry category of natural re-

The step-up in the government sector largely re-

Employment in local government administration de-

Private-sector job gains in 2013 slipped to 16,629

By 2016, the manufacturing sector accounts for only

Leading the early stages of the recovery was trans-

By 2016, transportation equipment manufactur-

Some of the other manufacturing industries that are

Wholesale trade sees accelerating job growth over

J ob growth in professional services is concentrated

Transportation, warehousing, and utilities see strong

Between 2009 and 2013, employment in profes-

Only modest job growth is projected for the infor-

The nance and insurance industry contributes

The real estate and rental and leasing industry sees

Some other professional service industries that are

Administrative and waste management services