UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)

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UNIVERSITY TUNKU ABDUL RAHMAN
FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND FINANCE
ACADEMIC YEAR 2013/2014
ASSIGNMENT
UBEQ 1123
Quantitative Techniques II
Variable: Gross Saving (% of GDP)
Countries: Malaysia, Singapore and New Zealand
Tutorial Group: T14 Tutor: Miss. Tan Yan Teng
Group Members:
No Name ID Course
1 LIM SIN PEI 13ABB08313 BA
2 ONG HOU YIN 13ABB00533 BA
3 SOO PEI TING 13ABB04938 BA
4 WONG WEI MIN 11ABB01194 BF
5 WONG YOKE MUN 12ABB02003 BF


UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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CONTENT


Total Page for assignment: 12 pages

















Topic Page
1 Background Description 3-5
2 Statistical Results 6-12
3 Conclusion 13-14
4 Bibliography 15
UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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a) Illustrate the background of the countries as well as describe the development,
performance, and trend of the variable in the 3 selected countries. Make use of
graphical presentation, table, descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation and so
on), etc. to enhance your content.



From the graph above, we able to observed that the Singaporean has a higher saving than
Malaysian in past two decades. The economic condition of Singapore is not comparable
as Malaysia economic condition when Singapore is independent from Malaysia. In
particular, household saving includes savings of unincorporated business (Susan M.
Collins, 1991). This is the reason why Singapore has a higher household savings than
Malaysia, Singapore citizen are more likely encounter to do the business than Malaysia
citizen. In year 1990 to 1997, both Malaysia and Singapore household saving trend has an
increase. This is because the economics of whole world is in optimistic condition and
reaching the peak of the session. As we can notice from the graph, 1997 will be the peak
and it is start to recession during the year which caused by the Asian financial crisis. This
crisis has affected majority of the Asian country (Dick K.Nanto, 1998). The crisis has put
a negative impact and lasting along to year 2002 and the economy start to recover, that
why the graph sloping upwards from year 2002. The average, mean of Malaysia Gross
Saving in percentage from year 1990 to 2012 is 30.01645 while Singapore is 45.08831.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
G
r
o
s
s

S
a
v
i
n
g
s

(
%

o
f

G
D
P
)

Year
Malaysia & Singapore
Malaysia
Singapore
UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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The plotted diagram has significantly shows the savings of New Zealand is far behind the
Malaysia savings. The New Zealand household had a poor saving record in these recent
years. According to New Zealands Institutional Sector Accounts, it shows that New
Zealand household has generally spent more money than they earned over the 20 years,
especially since year 2001 when the property market was buoyant. That was why the
curve has downward sloping since year 2001 and never trend back to the higher degree of
the saving power. Comparison of the average Gross Saving in percentage of Malaysia to
New Zealand is 30.01645 to 16.34252.


In the above diagram, we can have a conclusion about the saving ability of New Zealand
household is not comparable to the household of Singapore. Even though during the
financial crisis of year 1997, the saving power of Singapore household was still preceding
than the New Zealand. Besides that, the graph shows the degree of saving power of New
0
10
20
30
40
50
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
G
r
o
s
s

S
a
v
i
n
g
s

(
%

o
f

G
D
P
)

Year
Malaysia & NewZealand
Malaysia
NewZealand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1
9
9
0
1
9
9
1
1
9
9
2
1
9
9
3
1
9
9
4
1
9
9
5
1
9
9
6
1
9
9
7
1
9
9
8
1
9
9
9
2
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
2
0
0
2
2
0
0
3
2
0
0
4
2
0
0
5
2
0
0
6
2
0
0
7
2
0
0
8
2
0
0
9
2
0
1
0
2
0
1
1
2
0
1
2
G
r
o
s
s

S
a
v
i
n
g
s

(
%

o
f

G
D
P
)

Year
Singapore & NewZealand
Singapore
NewZealand
UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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Zealand household is smooth and steady within 10% to 20%. The fluctuation of the graph
does not have radical changes because the saving power of New Zealand household is not
strong and they usually spent the whole salary of the months (New Zealand Institution,
2012).



















UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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b) i) Based on the 3 countries, please run an ANOVA analysis to verify the
statistical difference in mean of the variable among the 3 chosen countries.

1
= gross saving (% of GDP) of Malaysia.

2
= gross saving (% of GDP) of Singapore.

3
= gross saving (% of GDP) of New Zealand.
H
0
:
1
=
2
=
3
H
1
: at least one of the
i
is different. (i=1, 2, 3)
=0.05
Decision rule: Reject H
0
, is the test static is more than critical value, otherwise do not
reject.
Critical value: F
, k-1, n-k
= F
0.05, 2, 63

=3.15
F-test:

=457.1756
Decision making: Reject H0, since test statistic (457.1756) is more than critical value
(3.15).
Conclusion: We have sufficient evidence to conclude that there is at least one of the
i
is
different.
SUMMARY

Groups Count Sum Average Variance

Row 1 23 805.3783 35.0164478 8.179743

Row 2 20 326.8495 16.342475 2.855197

Row 3 23 1037.031 45.088313 17.54993



ANOVA
Source of
Variation SS df MS F P-value F crit
Between Groups 9002.753 2 4501.37637 457.1756
3.11E-
38 3.142809
Within Groups 620.3015 63 9.84605524


Total 9623.054 65

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ii) Specifically, run two independent samples mean t-test with unequal variances to
verify the comparison in the performance of that variable between 2 countries.
There should be three separated t-test since 3 countries are selected to form three
pair-wise comparisons.
1) Malaysia V Singapore:
Let
1
= gross saving (% of GDP) of Malaysia

2
= gross saving (% of GDP) of Singapore
H
0
:
1

2
H
1
:
1
<
2
Significant level: = 0.05

Decision rule: Reject H
0,
if test statistic value is lower than lower bound critical value,
otherwise do not reject.
Critical value = t
,

= t
0.05,

=t
0.05, [1.25144 (0.005749+0.02646)]

=t
0.05, 38.85

=t
0.05, 39

= -1.684

Test Statistic: T-test =
(

)(

=
( )()

UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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= -9.4799
Decision Making: Reject H
0
, since the test statistic (-9.4799) is lower than critical value
(-1.684).
Conclusion: Sufficient evidence to conclude that gross saving (%GDP) of Malaysia is
less than gross saving (%GDP) of Singapore.

















UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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2) Malaysia V New Zealand:
Let
1
= gross saving (% of GDP) of Malaysia

3
= gross saving (% of GDP) of New Zealand
H
0
:
1

3
H
1
:
1

3
Significant level: = 0.05
Decision Rule: Reject H
0,
if test statistic value is more than upper bound critical value,
otherwise do not reject.
Critical value = t
,

= t
0.05,

= t
0.05
,
[0.3556 + 0.1428]
2
(0.005749 + 0.0010727)]

= t
0.05, (0.2484 0.0068217)

= t
0.05, 36.4132

= t
0.05, 36


= 1.684 (right tailed test)
Test Statistic: t-test =
(

)(

=
( )()

()

()

= 26.4503
UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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Decision Making: Reject H
0
, since the test statistic (26.4503) is greater than critical
value (1.684).
Conclusion: Sufficient evidence to conclude that gross saving (%GDP) of Malaysia is
greater than gross saving (%GDP) of New Zealand.


















UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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3) Singapore V New Zealand
Let
2
= gross savings (% of GDP) of Singapore

3
= gross savings (% of GDP) of New Zealand
H
0
:
2

3
H
1
:
2

3
Significant level: = 0.05
Decision Rule: Reject H
0,
if test statistic value is more than upper bound critical value,
otherwise do not reject.
Critical value = t
,

= t
0.05,

= t
0.05, [0.8205 (0.02646+0.001073)]
= t
0.05, 29.8006

= t
0.05, 30
= 1.697
Test Statistic: t-test =
(

)(

=
()()

=30.2047
UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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Decision Making: Reject H
0
, since the test statistic (30.2047) is greater than critical
value (1.697).
Conclusion: Sufficient evidence to conclude that gross savings (% of GDP) of Singapore
is greater than gross savings (% of GDP) of New Zealand.


















UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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Conclusion
The statistics shown GDP of Singapore is higher than both GDP of Malaysia and
New Zealand, whereas GDP of Malaysia is higher than GDP of New Zealand (Knoema,
2011). The Economist Intelligence Unit found that, growth in industry was significant
contribute to Singapores one-third of GDP growth rate by boost the domestic demand
through multiplier effect. The industrial sector which including the construction sector
had gains notable benefits especially from manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, Singapore
has remained an important oil-refining centre. Furthermore, excellent exporting goods
services in external sector enable Singapore to dominate the economy sector. Their
exporting service was supported by the fast growth in fund-management and tourism.
Gross fixed investment will be strengthened by substantial government-funded projects,
whereas private consumption also keep contribute in GDP growth (Singapore economy:
Quick View - GDP growth remains strong: [1], 2010). These become the competitive
advantage for Singapore to have a higher GDP rate rather than the others countries such
as Malaysia and New Zealand.
With the advanced economies and improvement of export demand in recent years,
the acceleration of economic activities in Malaysia was mitigation the overall moderation
domestic demand. The ongoing export growth and demand from China and European
area lead Malaysias export services growth rapidly and help in boost the GDP of
Malaysia. Even though the GDP of Malaysia is lower than Singapore but its higher than
GDP rate of New Zealand. In addition, Petronas Dagangan Berhad, a provider of
petroleum products in Malaysia plans to catch up with Shell which is the market leader in
UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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retail and lubricants segments nowadays. The competitiveness in the industry enables to
growth the GDP rate in Malaysia. Moreover, the high usage level of mobile internet
services allows Digi Companys increase more revenue rather than their expectations
revenue level and have a stable margins. The systematically growth in industry enable
Malaysias GDP maintain in moderate rate which lower than Singapore but higher than
New Zealand (Stocks In Focus MY (Malaysia GDP, Petronas Dagangan, DiGi.Com),
2014).











UBEQ1123 Quantitative Techniques II (Jan 2013/2014)
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Bibliography

1)(2011). Retrieved March 15, 2014, from Knoema: http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/gdp-
ranking-2013-data-and-charts
2)(2010). Singapore economy: Quick View - GDP growth remains strong: [1]. New
York : The Economist Intelligence Unit.
3)Stocks In Focus MY (Malaysia GDP, Petronas Dagangan, DiGi.Com). (2014, February
10). Shares Investment : Facts & Figures . Malaysia United States: Pioneers &
Leaders (Publishers) Pte. Ltd.
4)Statistic New Zealand. (2012, April). Retrieved from The fall and rise of household saving:
http://www.stats.govt.nz/browse_for_stats/economic_indicators/NationalAccounts/ho
usehold-saving-fall-and-rise.aspx
5)Collins, S. M. (1991). National Saving and Economic Performance. Saving Behavior in Ten , 349-
376.
6)Nanto, D. K. (1998, February 6). FAS. Retrieved from THE 1997-98 ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS:
http://www.fas.org/man/crs/crs-asia2.htm
7)Zhou, P. (n.d.). Economic Geography. Retrieved from Singapore's Economic Development:
http://geography.about.com/od/economic-geography/a/Singapore-Economic-
Development.htm








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