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Signicance of Freight Transport

with Regard to the Economy and


the Environment
Werner Rothengatter
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
EU 27
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Correlation and causality
! Central questions:
(1) Impact of economic development on freight
transport
(2) Impact of (freight) transport on economic
development
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Impact (1) economy ! transport
Correlation and causality
" Trade elasticities
! Transport elasticities of industrial production;
increasing transport intensities (tkm/GDP)
! Traditional freight transport forecasting
! Problem of indicators for freight transport
# Volumes (tons)
# Transport performance (ton.km)
# Vehicle performance (truck.km, train.km)
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Increasing transport intensity
Example of Germany
Target
1995
Tkm/GDP
1999=100
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Impact (2) transport ! economy
Freight transport and GDP
! Aschauers macro-approach
! New economic geography,
new economic growth theory
Transport costs and agglomeration effects
Productivity effects, technical progress
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Regional economics approach:
Freight Transport and GDP
! Accessibility as a potential factor
for regional development
spatially immobile, polyvalent, indivisible, non-
substitutable potential factors
determine the chances,
can form bottlenecks
to regional economic development
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Wider Economic Impacts of
HSR Stuttgart-Ulm
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Conclusions

Freight transport and economic
development
! Preconditions for productive feedbacks:
Structured development of transportation
systems, avoidance of chaotic transport
patterns (over-congestion)
Control of environmental impacts, noise and
air pollution below WHO limit values
Control of GHG-emissions, contribution to
global challenge of climate stabilization
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" Share of global CO2-emissions: 6%
" Export of industrialized countries of CO2
to transformation and developing countries
" Responsibility of industrialized countries higher
than their share of global CO2 production
" High share of freight transport also resulting
from off-shoring strategies for production
Environmental impacts
of freight transport
#
#
#
#
#
Collaborations for
milk runs/main runs Org
call-offs by shipper
Org
Pallet-flow rail car
Green Truck Technology
Man Concept S
Tech
Effect of the German Tollcollect System on
the Vehicle Fleet > 12 t
Entwicklung der Verteilung der mautpflichtigen Fahrleistungen
in Deutschland nach Schadstoffklassen 01-2005 bis 12-2010 (in %)
(Quellen: 2005 - 10/2007: BAG; ab 11/2007: Schtzungen der ProgTrans AG)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
1
-0
5
0
3
-0
5
0
5
-0
5
0
7
-0
5
0
9
-0
5
1
1
-0
5
0
1
-0
6
0
3
-0
6
0
5
-0
6
0
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-0
6
0
9
-0
6
1
1
-0
6
0
1
-0
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0
3
-0
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0
5
-0
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0
7
-0
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0
9
-0
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1
1
-0
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0
1
-0
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0
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-0
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0
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-0
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1
1
-0
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0
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-0
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-0
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-0
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-1
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-1
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-1
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-1
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-1
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-1
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A
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%
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S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
EEV
/S6
! Fahrleistungsermittlung
Si= Euro Category i
Horizontal transshipment
Tech
Gigaliners: 25.5 m length. Up to 60 tons
Debated controversely
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Long-term Challenges
Sonderrolle des Verkehrs?
Reduction potential of alt. energy (green),
high efficiency (blue) and modal shift (orange)