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THE 2014 PGA TOUR WINNERS: ANALYSIS

OF THE WINNING ROUNDS
WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO WIN A PGA TOUR GOLF EVENT?

By V. Laxmanan, Sc. D.

Tiger Woods returned to competitive golf at the recent Quicken Loans
National (June 26-29, 2014 at the Congressional CC, Bethesda, MD) and
missed the cut with rounds of 74 and 75 at this event. So it seems appropriate
to ask, What does it take to win a PGA Tour event?


http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2014/0627/golf_g_tiger-woods_mb_600x400.jpg Woods
missed the cut for just the 10
th
time in his entire professional career.
http://espn.go.com/golf/story/_/id/11146330/tiger-woods-misses-cut-congressional-4-
shots
___________________________________________________________
Contact Email address: vlaxmanan@hotmail.com The author is a retired research professional, with
advanced degrees in Mechanical Engineering and Materials Science and Engineering who has spent
his entire professional career in leading US research institutions, in academia (MIT and CWRU), in
Page 2 of 16

government (NASA), and in corporate research labs (Allied Chemical Corporate R & D, now part of
Honeywell, and the General Motors Research Labs). He has also published many widely cited scientific
articles in leading peer-reviewed international journals in both physics and the materials sciences. His
current research interests include the study of business, financial, economic, sports and other social
sciences data using methods commonly used in physics and the hard sciences; see various short posts
on his Facebook page under several groups such as Physics, Economics, Politics, Sports and the
Real World, https://www.facebook.com/groups/physicseconomicsandrealworld/ and Global
Warming for the Layman; see https://www.facebook.com/groups/GWforlayman/, created on
January 5, 2014 and , aimed at discussing global warming data in an easy-to-understand manner,
___________________________________________________________



This is no longer the same Tiger Woods, as is obvious from his own remarks
about what he went through before his recent back surgery. This Tiger Woods
is not the same, either physically or mentally (due to events since and
following that fateful Thanksgiving weekend of 2009 that need not be
discussed here).

FOR THE NON-GOLFER WHO HAS ARRIVED HERE
In a round of golf, a player will require a certain number of strokes to get
the ball into the hole. A professional golfer is expected to take either 3, 4,
or 5 strokes (called the par for the hole) depending on the difficulty of
the course set up, the distance to the hole from the starting point, etc.

Eighteen (18) holes are played in a round and typical golf courses are set
up with par values of 70, 71, or 72. The winner usually requires a score
lower than par value, as seen in Table 1. The lowest total score for the
four rounds leads to a win. The scores of the winners in 25 golf
tournaments in the 2014 season have been compiled in Table 1.
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Table 1: Winning scores for the 25 PGA Tour Events
through Quicken Loans National

No.

Event

Winner
Average
of the
four
rounds

Round
1

Round
2

Round
3

Round
4
1 Sony Open J. Walker 65.75 66 67 67 63
2 Humana P. Reed 65 63 63 63 71
3 Farmers Scott S. 69.75 72 67 72 68
4 Waste Mgmt Kevin Stadler 67 65 68 67 68
5 AT&T J. Walker 69 66 69 67 74
6 Northern Trust Bubba W 67.25 70 71 64 64
7 WGC-Accenture Jason D
8 Honda R. Henley 68 64 68 68 72
9 PR Open C. Hadley 66.75 68 65 67 67
10 WGC-Cadillac P. Reed 71 68 75 69 72
11 Valspar J. Senden 69.25 72 71 64 70
12 Arnold P M. Every 68.75 69 70 66 70
13 Valero Texas S. Bowditch 70 69 67 68 76
14 Shell Houston M. Jones 68.25 68 68 71 66
15 Masters Bubba W 70 69 68 74 69
16 RBC Heritage M. Kuchar 68.25 66 73 70 64
17 Zurich Noh Seung-yul 67.25 65 68 65 71
18 Wells Fargo Holmes J B 68.5 70 67 66 71
19 TPC Sawgrass M. Kaymer 68.75 63 69 72 71
20 HP Byron Nelson Brendon Todd 66.5 68 64 68 66
21 Crowne Plaza Adam Scott 67.75 71 68 66 66
22 Memorial H. Matsuyama 68.75 70 67 69 69
23 Fedex St. Jude Ben Crane 67.5 63 65 69 73
24 US Open M. Kaymer 67.75 65 65 72 69
25 Travelers K. Streelman 66.25 69 68 64 64
26 Quicken National J. Rose 70 74 65 71 70
Total 1703 1693 1696 1699 1724
Average 68.12 67.72 67.84 67.96 68.96
Std. Deviation 1.44
Data Source: http://espn.go.com/golf/leaderboard?tournamentId=1346
Click on each tournament; see the 2013-2014 PGA Tournaments below the dates of PGA Tour
events on the top left of the leaderboard page.

His previous performance is, IMHO, pretty much irrelevant. The only record
that we have is two rounds of 74 and 75 for an average of 74.5 strokes
per round. This average must start decreasing to a value of 68, or below,
see Table 1, as Tiger plays more rounds of competitive golf.
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In other words, all aspects of Tigers game must improve dramatically and
significantly, over the next few weeks, for him to start winning PGA Tour
events and majors once again.

How did I come up with the winning target average of per round of 68 for
Tiger to become competitive again?

Simple, really! I studied the scores for all the winning rounds, by different
players, during this season. This is compiled in Table 1 and was obtained from
the ESPN Golf website by clicking on the leaderboards for each tournament.

Excluding the WGC-Accenture (which was a match play event); we have
exactly 100 rounds of competitive golf, over the 25 PGA Tour events to date.

I first calculated the average score for the winner for the four rounds of each
event and then determined the average for all the 25 events to date. The total
of the average scores of the winners rounds is 1703 (see column 3) and the
average of this average is 1703/25 = 68.12 strokes per round. This is what it
takes, statistically speaking to win a PGA Tour event in 2014 with the current
field strengths that we have. It is also of interest to note that the winners
average score is increasing as we go from round 1 to round 4.

The standard deviation, which is a measure of the spread in the average
scores for the winner, is only 1.44, or less than 2 strokes. Hence, the winner of
a PGA Tour event must have a long term scoring average of 68 per round, or
lower, and certainly an average round per event of no more than 70. This is
the pretty much the highest average that we observe in 3 of the 25 events with
a 71 observed only once (WGC-Cadillac, won by Patrick Reed).
This is now the challenge ahead for Tiger Woods. In subsequent events he
must show this level of improvement. What he did prior to this surgery, and
prior to 2009, is, IMHO, not very relevant. Golf writers better learn to stop
quoting such useless and meaningless stats. The case in point being a recent
ESPN golf blog which discusses the likelihood of Woods making the playoffs
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(see http://espn.go.com/golf/blog/_/name/golf/id/11157210/fedex-cup-
playoffs-slipping-away-tiger-woods-golf
Tiger having won in the past is just a feel good stat. It remains to be seen if
Tiger can correct the tons of simple mistakes he admits to have made at the
Quicken National, his first competitive golf event post-surgery, and actually
reduce his average score per round by a minimum of 6 strokes or better.
Frankly speaking, there will be no PGA Tour wins or majors without such a
dramatic improvement and that too very very quickly!

Of course, two rounds do not tell the story but this is where the new statistical
reckoning must begin. In the following I have provided some additional
analysis of the data compiled in Table 1.





Figure 1: Graphical representation of the average winning score in the 25 PGA
Tour events through the Quicken Loans National (excluding WGC-Accenture).

64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
PGA Tour Event Number, N
W
i
n
n
e
r

s

A
v
e
r
a
g
e

S
t
r
o
k
e
s

p
e
r

r
o
u
n
d

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The average winning score in the 25 events through the Quicken National is
plotted in Figure 1. The highest average score of 71 was observed only once
and the average of 70 was only observed three times. In 14 of the 25 events
the average winners score was between 67 and 69. Just count the number of
points that fall on or between the horizontals at 67 and 69. In 5 events the
winning score was between 65 and 67 with 65 being the lowest average
winners score to date (event 2, won by Patrick Reed).

Table 2: Frequency of scores in the PGA Tour winners rounds
Score, S 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76
Frequency, F 6 8 8 9 10 16 12 8 9 7 2 3 1 1
The number of times each score appeared can be determined from scores for
each round for the winner given in Table 1.

Next, lets consider the winners scores in all the four rounds of each event.
The frequency of appearance of the various scores is listed in Table 2. Again,
we see that the scores of 68 (seen 16 times) and 69 (seen 12 times) were
observed most frequently in the winners rounds and account for 28 of the
100 rounds with 38 rounds having scores between 67 and 69. Clearly, a PGA
Tour victory requires a consistent performance at these levels.

This also explains why 20-year old Jordan Spieth (who will turn 21 this
month), often mentioned as the US golf star, has been near the top of the
leaderboard in many events in 2014 but has not yet won in this season. As
discussed in earlier articles (see references given at the end of this article),
Spieths average per round needs to improve significantly, by at least 2 to 3
strokes, for him to start tasting victory. This again will require significant
improvement in all aspects of his game.

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Figure 2: Frequency diagram for the winners scores in 2014 PGA Tour events.
(through the Quicken Loans National and excluding WGC-Accenture).

The distribution of the winners scores around the mean (or average) value
resembles what statisticians call a normal or the Gaussian distribution,
described mathematically by the bell-shaped normal distribution curve
introduced by the German mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss (see
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution ). The mathematical
equation of this curve is given by the function.



Here x is the golfers score for the round, the value labeled as S and plotted on
the horizontal axis of Figure 2 and y = f(x, , ) is the frequency F which is
plotted on the vertical axis of Figure 2. Two parameters, the average and the
standard deviation , characterize this curve. The symbol = 3.141592654 is
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
60 65 70 75 80
Winners Score in the PGA rounds, S
round
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

W
i
n
n
e
r

s

S
c
o
r
e
,

F

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the well-known ratio of the circumference to the diameter of a circle. The
observed scores fall on both sides of the average, or mean, value and the
frequency of appearance decreases as we move away from the average. The
properties of this curve are well-known and can be reviewed by the interested
reader by consulting any standard statistics text, or the Wikipedia article
referenced here. The application of this curve to the PGA winners scores data
is illustrated in Figures 3 and 4.


Figure 3: Frequency diagram with the normal distribution curve with mean and
standard deviation being equal to the observed values in Table 1.
For each value of the score S = x, the probability density y = f(x, , ) can be
calculated from the values of mean = 68.12 and the standard deviation =
1.44. The probability density at the peak is taken as equal to the observed
frequency F = 16 and all the other probabilities are then re-scaled. The
resulting frequency distribution, see Figure 3, looks like the normal or
Gaussian distribution. There is a sharp peak at around 68 and the winners
average rounds fall off on either side. Both higher and lower scores are
observed that do not fall on this single distribution curve. However, by
adjusting the values of the standard deviation to a higher value of = 3.5, we
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Winners Score in the PGA rounds, S
round
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

W
i
n
n
e
r

s

S
c
o
r
e
,

F

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get the dashed curve of Figure 4, with no change in the mean, or average
value. Thus, the winner of the PGA Tour event seem to have a performance
average of 68 with a standard deviation of 3 to 4 strokes, which is consistent
with the data in Table 1.
1

Figure 4: Frequency diagram for the PGA Tour winners scores. Dashed normal
distribution curve with mean = 68.12 and a higher standard deviation = 3.5.
All of the PGA Tours winners scores in the 2014 season, with 100 rounds
being accounted for, fall between the two normal distribution curves of
Figures 3 and 4.
This is the challenge that lies ahead for Tiger Woods - to match his
performance to these distribution curves, in order to win future PGA Tour
events and chase the Jack Nicklaus record of 18 wins in the majors. The same
also applies to younger stars, notably Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy and Patrick
Reed, all of whom aspire for greatness. The data as analyzed here provides
the benchmark that every PGA Tour player must meet and surpass to
become a dominant player/winner on the tour. If not we will forever be
witnessing a different winner hoisting the trophy every week!
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Winners Score in the PGA rounds, S
round
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

W
i
n
n
e
r

s

S
c
o
r
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,

F

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Figure 5: A slightly modified version of the frequency diagram of Figure 4 for purposes of
clarity. The dashed curve is redrawn here with mean = 68.12 and a standard deviation =
3.3 instead of 3.5. Also, the probability density value y = f(x, , ) = k exp(-z
2
/2) at the peak of
the curve is taken as a frequency F = 17.5 instead of 16. Here z = (x )/ and k = 1/(2)
1/2
.
Statisticians use the z parameter which is the ratio of the deviation from the mean (x )
scaled by the standard deviation .
Mathematically speaking, z is dimensionless, i.e., without any units. If x is height, for
example, z is height divided by height and so becomes a quantity without units or
dimensions. Likewise for the golf score which has units of strokes per round. The
distribution curve here envelops all the winners scores and also passes through the highest
and lowest scores observed for the winners on the PGA Tour in 2014. This means that both the
highest and the lowest score for a round are part of a statistical continuum. Both will appear
and the frequency of appearance depends on the skill level of the winners, which is
characterized by the two quantities, the mean and the standard deviation . This is what we
mean by having the game to win.
Exactly similar plots can be prepared by an individual golfers rounds, over several events, as
discussed earlier (see references cited) where Jordans Spieths performance in the 2014
season was considered. It will then be seen that the individual golfer must improve his
performance to match the distribution curve for the winners and often has a mean value
which is at least 2 to 3 strokes higher than for the winners scores.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Winners Score in the PGA rounds, S
round
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y

o
f

W
i
n
n
e
r

s

S
c
o
r
e
,

F

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Patrick Reed who had a two-stroke lead going into final round on Sunday at the Quicken
Loans National, only to collapse with back to back double bogeys and a +6 on the final nine
holes. Reed makes a habit of wearing red and black on Sundays for effect and also to imitate
his golf idol Tiger Woods, as seen on the right.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/dr/golf/www/release/sites/default/files/imagecache/node-gallery-
display/gallery_images/quicken_1.jpg

The 20-year old golf star Jordan Spieth is still looking for his first win of the season and played
in the group with Tiger Woods and Jason Day on Thursday and Friday at the Quicken
National. He finished at +3 for the tournament and having made the cut, unlike Tiger Woods.
Both Woods and Spieth matched their scores on Thursday.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/dr/golf/www/release/sites/default/files/imagecache/node-gallery-
display/gallery_images/JordanSpieth2_690.jpg
Page 12 of 16

The Quicken Loans event shows that no amount of statistical, or other
mathematical, analysis will predict a winner. Rose and Stefani were tied at
the end of 54 holes (average of 70 per round through rounds 1 to 3, with
Rose 74, 65, 71 and Stefani 74, 68, 68). Both were tied through first nine
holes on Sunday (35 each) and then through the 16
th
hole, with 27 each on
the back nine. Stefani made bogy on 17
th
and Rose knew about it as he was
playing the 18
th
hole but made a bogey. (Stefani was in the group behind
Rose.) A par for Rose would have led to a win in regulation. When Rose
made his bogey on 18, it made it easier for Stefani to force the playoff with
a par on the final hole. If not, he would have needed to birdie for playoff.
Eventually, Rose on the first extra hole of the playoff.)
References for related articles

[1] V. Laxmanan, Jordan Spieth: Looking Beyond the 2014 Masters,
Published http://www.scribd.com/doc/219648338/Jordan-Spieth-
Looking-Beyond-the-2014-Masters , Published April 22, 2014.
[2] V. Laxmanan, Jordan Spieth did not beat Jordan Spieth, Published April
18, 2014, http://www.scribd.com/doc/218982700/The-2014-Masters-
Golf-Tournament-Jordan-Spieth-did-not-beat-Jordan-Spieth-in-the-
final-round-and-so-lost-the-Masters
[3] V. Laxmanan, The 2014 Players Championship: Analysis of the final
rounds of Jordan Spieth and Martin Kaymer, Published May 12, 2014,
see http://www.scribd.com/doc/223551328/THE-2014-PLAYERS-
CHAMPIONSHIP-Analysis-of-final-round-of-Jordan-Spieth-vs-Martin-
Kaymer
[4] V. Laxmanan, The Bhagavad Gita and the 2014 Masters,
http://www.scribd.com/doc/218721972/The-Bhagavad-Gita-and-the-
2014-Masters-Golf-Tournament , Published April 16, 2014.
[5] V. Laxmanan, Tiger Woods: Is he filled with post-surgery self-doubts?
http://www.scribd.com/doc/225289472/Tiger-Woods-Is-he-Filled-
With-Self-Doubts-Post-Surgery Published May 20, 2014.
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APPENDIX I: BRIEF ANALYSIS OF JORDAN SPIETHS ROUNDS (FOR THE
2013-2014 SEASON) THROUGH THE QUICKEN LOANS NATIONAL
Table 3: Jordan Spieths scores for the 19 PGA Tour
Events through Quicken Loans National

No.

Event

Spieths finish
Average
of the
four
rounds

Round
1

Round
2

Round
3

Round
4
1 WGC-HSBC 17 69.5 68 71 70 69
2 Northwest Mut T16 74.25 77 72 77 71
3 Hyundai 2 68.5 66 70 69 69
4 Sony Open MC 70.5 70 71 Missed Cut
5 Farmers T 19 71 71 63 75 75
6 AT&T T4 69.75 67 67 78 67
7 Northern Trust T12 69 72 66 67 71
8 WGC-Cadillac T34 73.5 73 79 73 69
9 Valspar T20 71 71 70 71 72
10 Valero Texas 10 71 75 70 68 71
11 Shell Houston MC 72.5 70 75 Missed Cut
12 Masters T2 70.75 71 70 70 72
13 RBC Heritage T12 70 67 66 71 74
14 TPC Sawgrass T4 69.5 70 67 73 68
15 HP Byron Nelson T37 69.5 67 69 70 68
16 Crowne Plaza T14 68.5 69 72 67 75
17 Memorial T19 70.75 69 70 72 73
18 US Open T17 71 74 70 69 71
19 Quicken National T11 71 67 66 71 74
Total 1341.5 1336 1332 1210 1202
Average 70.61 70.32 70.11 63.68 63.26
Std. Deviation 1.49
Data Source: http://espn.go.com/golf/leaderboard?tournamentId=1346
Click on each tournament; see the 2013-2014 PGA Tournaments below the dates of PGA Tour
events on the top left of the leaderboard page. Or, go to Jordan Spieths profile page after
clicking on the players name on any recent leaderboard which leads to the list of all the
events for the player of interest.

As noted earlier, in the main text, notice that Spieths average over the last 19
events of this season is 70.61, more than 2 strokes higher than the average of
68.12 for the 2014 PGA Tour winners. Spieth, however, seems to improve as
the rounds progress but the winners seem to do the opposite. Their best
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comes in the first round and the average decreases as the rounds progress.
The following frequency table is deduced from the data compiled in Table 3.
Table 4: Frequency of scores in Jordan Spieths PGA Tour rounds
Score, S 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76
Frequency, F 1 3 9 4 9 13 11 6 4 3 5
Score, S 77 78 79
Frequency, F 2 1 1
The number of times each score appeared can be determined from scores for
each round for the winner given in Table 3.


Figure 6: Frequency diagram for Spieths scores in 2013-14 PGA Tour events.
(through the Quicken Loans National and excluding WGC-Accenture).

Figure 6 simply provides a graphical representation of the data in Table 4. A
comparison of Tables 2 and 4 (and also Figures 2 and 6) is quite revealing and
explains why Spieth is still looking for his first win this season. In just 19
events (as opposed to 25 for the winners), Spieth has more rounds with
scores of 73 and above. The scores above 75 are completely missing in the
winners frequency table. Also, in the 19 events scores below 67 appear
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Spieths Scores in the PGA rounds, S
round
F
r
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q
u
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n
c
y

o
f

S
c
o
r
e
,

F

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infrequently and rounds of 64 and 65 are completely missing. The winners
table shows 9 rounds of 66 a lot more than 3 rounds of 66 for Spieth, which
cannot be attributed entirely to the more total rounds in the winners table.


Figure 7: The frequency diagram for Spieth with a normal distribution curve superimposed on
to the data. The mean = 70.56 and the standard deviation = 3.045. The values of and
are obtained from the 72 rounds (not from the average values for each event) played by
Spieth. The total for all the 72 rounds is 5080 strokes which gives = 70.56. The standard
deviation can now be determined. The probability density values y = f(x, , ) = k exp(-z
2
/2)
were determined for each score x and the value of y at the peak of the curve is taken as a
frequency F = 13.5. Here z = (x )/ and k = 1/(2)
1/2
.
The frequency diagram of Figure 6 shows a peak at 70 strokes per round,
which is 2 strokes more than that observed for the winner. The frequencies of
the various scores decreases on both sides of this peak value and appears to
follow what statisticians call a normal, or Gaussian, distribution curve. This is
superimposed on to the data in Figure 7.
As noted earlier, both the low and the high scores per round observed for
Spieth, and likewise for any other golfer, are part of a statistical continuum
which is characterized by two parameters: the mean and the standard
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Spieths Scores in the PGA rounds, S
round
F
r
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q
u
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n
c
y

o
f

S
c
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,

F

Page 16 of 16

deviation . These are the simplest mathematical parameters that can be
deduced from the observed performance data and indeed tell us if a golfer has
the game needed to win on the PGA Tour, in a consistent manner and
become a dominant force on the tour. As already noted in the earlier articles
cited in the references, Spieth needs to improve his game to reduce the
average per round to a value of 68 or less. Note that with an average of 68.5
Spieth was runner up at the Hyundai event (event no. 3 in Table 3). However,
even this average of 68.5 did NOT produce a win in other events, such as the
Crowne Plaza Invitational at the Colonial (event no. 16 in Table 3).
The same conclusions apply for other aspiring young golfer such as Rory
McIlroy, Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar, Bubba Watson, and so on, and also Tiger
Woods who is returning to competitive golf. Each of them must improve their
game, Tiger very rapidly, in order to start winning consistently.
It is hoped that all professional golfers will take advantage of this rather
simple and straightforward mathematical approach developed here to test the
competitiveness of an individual golfer against the best among them, which
now can be anyone in the field. The recent come-from-nowhere victory by
Kevin Streelman, at the Travelers Championship, with seven straight birdies,
indicates the extent of talent that lies hidden within the PGA Tour card
holders. Summoning this talent out week after week to win is actually quite
easy: Practice, practice, practice, until you reach perfection. The right
technique is, of course, implied. And staying healthy and injury-free, for sure.
Remember Vijay Singh? Or, Tiger Woods of old?
The formula for their success, although VJs lasted only for a brief period, was
the same: PRACTICE LEADS TO PERFECTION.